If It Takes You 86 Years to Beat Them, Join Them

By trading for Eric Gagne today, the Red Sox have made it clear that they've decided to try to win it all this year by copying the model of, oddly enough, the 1996 Yankees.

That Yankees team won it all behind two elite playoff starters (David Cone and Andy Pettitte), and a lights-out back of the bullpen that featured Mariano Rivera setting up John "Protected" Wetteland. Together, those two guys functionally lopped the last two innings off playoff games, and put a ton of pressure on opposing offenses to score early.

Those four pitchers were good enough to lift an otherwise average offense to a title. The Yankees team OPS+ for the season was only 99, and New York finished 9th in the American League in runs scored with 871, 162 behind the league-leading Mariners. Heck, the team's highest-paid hitter (and highest-paid overall player, in fact) was midseason acquisition Cecil Fielder, who would be edged permanently out of the league and wedged permanently into a booth at Stuckey's just two seasons later.

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The Sox already had two elite postseason starters in Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling (with, I suppose, Dice-K filling the Jimmy Key role if you want to push the analogy). With the Gagne trade, the Sox now can alternate Gagne and Hideki Okajami in the Rivera/setup role, and reduce some of the wear and tear on Wetteland clone Jon Papelbon. It's sort of a neat approach, and is a very different way of constructing a team than the Sox' pre-Theo method of assembling 9 guys the size of Jack Clark and turning them loose on the league.

Also, as is obvious from the picture at left, the Sox can also now platoon Gagne and Julian Tavarez at Designated Ugly Guy. That platoon will probably be enough to lead the league in ugly now that Randy Johnson is out for the season.

But the really cool part is that the Sox likely didn't give up much to get Gagne. Kason Gabbard aspires to have Aaron Sele's mid-period career as a starter who varied between acceptable and useful, depending on whether he could thrown his big curveball for strikes. David Murphy is a tweener OF who has Terrence Long on his list of BP comps.

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And Engel Beltre is . . . well, nobody knows exactly what he is. He's all of 17, and apparently is toolsy. That's not all that helpful, of course--Toe Nash was toolsy as hell, and I believe that at the moment he's a part-time crab shucker in Bogalusa.

At any rate, it looks like Sox are going to hope that their offense, which is much weaker than the '03-'05 editions that made it to the playoffs, can outscore their opponents if it has a two-inning head start. I have to say, that makes a certain amount of sense.

Why It's Enrico Palazzo is in First Place

I was checking our old draft board regarding a player's eligibility, and immediately learned why IEP! is in first place. Here are their picks for this year's draft, in the 5th slot every round:

1. Jake Peavy
2. Gary Sheffield
3. Chien-Ming Wang
4. Saito
5. Jose Contreras
6. Mike Cuddyer
7. Russ Martin
8. Octavio Dotel
9. Matt Lindstrom
10. Joe Blanton
11. David Weathers
12. Hank Blalock
13. Eric Byrnes
14. Adam LaRoche
15. Scott Linebrink

That, kids, is a fantastic set of picks. The first 3 have all be nothing shy of studs all year; Saito and Weathers have contributed as closers; Martin was possibly the best pick value-wise in the 7th round, and Blanton and Byrnes have been quite quite good as well. Having a strong keeper list didn't hurt, but man, when you draft that well, it's sometimes that easy.

It's Not That Emmitt Smith Is Dumb, Exactly...

...though I hear he enjoys the occasional glass of lead paint with dinner. Emmitt popped up with some comments on Mike Vick that managed to combine the snitch-stopping stylings of Carmelo Anthony with the joyful ignorance of real life so often exhibited by Tim McCarver.

This turns out to be a possible hidden virtue of all of those Troy Aikman concussions--over time they might well have combined to beat the stupid out of him before he could make any embarassing comments. I can only hope the same for Tom Brady.

Headline Writers Run Amok

Somebody needs to switch the headline writers in Bristol over to decaf. Upon checking out espn.com this afternoon, I was greeted with this headline:

"Buehrle Brilliant as White Sox Spoil Indians' Day"

Because Mark Buehrle is on my team, I immediately did a heartfelt, if logistically complicated, seated jig in my office and went to check out his pitching line in anticipation of a statistically dominant performance. The actual line?

6.1 IP 1 ER 10 H 1 BB 3 K

Some may call that line brilliant; I'd call it very, very lucky. Buehrle must have been involved in more close scrapes than a gynocologist.

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So, ESPN, for the sake of my blood pressure, please try to make your headlines at least mildly reflective of objectively measured reality. It's not too much to ask.

Transactions Analysis: Post All-Star Break Edition

To paraphrase Bill Lumbergh, we lost some people over the past few weeks, so we're.....gonna have to play a little catch up. Hence I'm spending part of a lovely Sunday doing a TA, though in fairness, I'm doing it while taking a break from an epic Order to Show Cause. Back from Portugal and ready to do some damage to the league, which had a ton of interesting and crappy transactions in the last 2 fortnights. (El Angelo)

Before making a transaction, the question you should always ask yourself is "How Is This Good For The Team?" We 'll attempt to answer that question for the moves below, so come with us as we jump to conclusions. Flair is optional.

Also, I'd just like to re-pimp Racing Esoterica, El Ang's new horse racing blog. We mainly just dick around here, but Ang can write the hell out of a race analysis. Anyone with a passing interest in the ponies owes it to themselves to take a look. (Teddy)

abe vigoda's spleen

• Signed Bengay Molina, C, San Fran; Released Mike Barrett, C, San Diego [6/20]


• Traded Jim Thome, 1B, Chicago (AL) and a 2nd round draft pick in the 2008 draft to The Sex Cannons for Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit [6/22]


• Signed Dmitri Young, 1B, Washington [7/12]


• Signed Matt Stairs, 1B, Toronto [7/13]


• Traded Ervin Santana, SP, Anaheim to President Skroob for Kelly Johnson, 2B, Atlanta [7/14]

There's a pair of hideous 1B's coming in to replace Jim Thome, who I didn't have a problem with giving up, especially for J. Bonderman, as the Tessios try to establish a great front line staff with the idea of drafting hitting next year. It's not a bad plan, as it's easier to find a 20HR/80RBI guy than a #2 starter. It also allowed them to give up Santana for a flyer on Johnson, who's unlikely to be kept, but not the worst idea in the world.

The only quibble I have is the casual discarding of a 2nd round pick--this team's unlikely to crack the top 8 this year, meaning that's probably around the #16 pick in the draft. For reference's sake, the players taken around there this year were Victor Martinez, Alex Gordon, Bobby Jenks, and Gary Sheffield, all very good contributing players, and frankly, I suspect that the '08 draft may be a bit deeper with some fun guys coming into their +1 or +2 years. And that, added with Thome, makes this a steep tariff for Bonderman. (El Angelo)

Agreed--the basic player swap is fine, but the 2 is a bit too high a price to pay. And I like Bonderman a ton. I even like the idea of trying to zig by keeping pitching when everyone else is zagging by keeping hitting--hell, that's the approach I took last year. But in order to get anything else other than a bunch of lottery tickets, you need high picks. Elite guys haven't been dropping much beyond pick 20, and you need to have the best player at least one position to have a chance at getting into the money in this league. (Teddy)

Ed Rooney's Office

• Signed Pat Neshek, RP, Minnesota; Released Andy Marte, 3B, Cleveland [6/19]

My co-author's team is cresting into contention by the fates, so why toy with destiny by adding or subtracting from a formula that's working? Better to just play around the margins. AND to add 1 more notch to Pat Neshek's attempt to win the Pewter Parachute. In this race, he's at roughly the same stage that Secretariat was at one mile into the 1973 Belmont. (El Angelo)

Neshek's Pewter Parachute dominance has reached the point that I think we should consider striking an actual Pewter Parachute trophy and sending it to him this offseason. We'll probably go ahead and soft-pedal the etymological background of the award title.

In more salient analysis, this is something I never thought I'd see: a win-now move out of my team. I continue to see a strike (either labor or meteor) as the only way my team will hit the money, but when I saw a chance to plug the injury hole in my bullpen and give ol' Pat a leg up at the same time, I felt honor-bound to take it. (Teddy)

Evil Empire

• Signed Shawn Marcum, SP, Toronto; Released Casey David Jansssssen, RP, Toronto [6/19]


• Released Raul Ibanez, OF, Seattle [6/25]

The rules of journalism and ethics forbid me from running more unnecessary photos of Famke Jansen, so I'm instead satisfying what Gregggg Easterbrook calls the "non traditional male" portion of our illustrious readership and inserting the late Dr. Richard Kimble instead. Frankly, that car is more interesting than any of these three players, who I can't say much about positively or negatively. (El Angelo)

I can: Raul Ibanez is Teh Suck. (Teddy)

Hand Banana

• Signed Bob Howry, RP, Chicago (NL); Released Kelly Johnson, 2B, Atlanta [6/25]


• Signed Adam Jones, OF, Seattle/Tacoma [6/26]


• Signed Lastings Milledge, OF, New York (NL); Released Howry [7/9]

I'm a tad surprised at the callous discarding of Kelly Johnson, who as you'll note later, I snatched up and dealt off for a flyer on a pitcher later this reporting cycle. I suppose with Cano in tow, there's no need to carry a redundant 2B, but it's not like he regressed to the point of Baergitude--he's still a useful player at the 4 slot. To kick him to the curb for Bobby Friggin Howry is a bit odd for this squad.

What's more interesting is that they're clearly hedging their bets for next year with the inkings of Lastings Milledge and Adam Jones, both of whom are interesting ideas for next year, but who may have trouble getting playing time from their current squads due to front office incompetence. Frankly, with Lastings, you're better off hoping the Mets swap him for someone in a better ballpark (Eric Gagne?), where his power will increase by 35%. (El Angelo)

For me it's the Adam Jones move that stands out. Jones is already the best non-Ichiro outfielder in the organization, and a guy who really ought to get a clean look this year. If he does, he could both help this year and get into the mix as a keeper for next season. As with Milledge, both front office and park effect issues exist. But both signings are consistent with both a win-now and win-later approach, which is about all you can ask out of FA signings. (Teddy)

It's Enrico Palazzo

• Signed Melvin Mora, 3B, Baltimore; Released Jose Contreras, SP, Chicago (AL) [6/19]


• Signed Chad Qualls, RP, Houston; Released Fernando Rodney, RP, Detroit [6/25]


• Released Qualls; Signed Carlos Marmol, RP, Chicago (NL) [6/27]


• Released Justin Duchsherer, RP, Oakland [7/3]


• Signed Adrian Beltre, 3B, Seattle [7/14]

These are nothing more than back-of-the-roster movements, with the exception of the last one, which I actually really like. Beltre's been a PECOTA favorite for the last year or so, and he's not having a poor year; I smell a fair second half ahead of him. He made zero sense on my roster with its glut of 3Bs, but he's a good idea for a team trying to win now. I sadly cannot say the same for what's left of Melvin Mora. (El Angelo)

Are you implying that Carlos Marmot is just a back-of-the-roster guy? Shit, I'll go further: I'll outright state that I think he's a figment of the imagination of the create-a-player function in MLB '07. I also like the Beltre grab as long as IEP is willing to eat an OBP hit. For this team, the real news is that the other contenders have taken a step back already post-ASB. IEP is getting some clean air out front, and is looking tough to catch. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Claimed off waivers Casey Janssen, RP, Toronto; Released Ryan Garko, 1B, Cleveland [6/22]


• Signed Jason Barlett, SS, Minnesota [7/3]


• Activated James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles, from prospect list; Released Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota [7/12]


• Traded Loney; Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles; Jonathan Broxton, RP, Los Angeles and Jon Lester, SP, Boston to President Skroob for Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis; Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis; Barry Zito, SP, San Francisco; and Coco Crisp, OF, Boston [7/12]


• Signed Joakim Soria, RP, Kansas City; Released Chris Duffy, OF, Pittsburgh [7/13]

With the exception of inking Jason Bartlett to oddly run the DH position (which strikes me as a total waste of his usefulness as a middle infielder), we mostly have here pitching upgrades. Or are they? Joakim Soria is probably at best a wash with Broxton; ditto for Billingsley-Wainwright; and Crisp versus Duffy is a death match that has no winners. That means the deals come down to the scratch-off card known as Lester and super-prospect Loney for dice rolls in Carpenter and Zito. The latter has been particularly brutal this year, so you have to think they're sacrificing Loney for the idea that Chris[t's Dad Was a] Carpenter is going to come back and light it up for a 4th place team. It wasn't that high a price tag, but it's not really a certainty either. Still, when you're in free-fall on the pitching side, you need to take a chance. It's a good thing that Travis Hafner still qualifies at first base (how?), because otherwise, this would be a poor movement of assets. (El Angelo)

Style points to the champs for emptying both prospect barrels in an attempt to climb back into it this season. I think that Carpenter will bounce most of the way back in the second half; given the lack of true high-end pitchers available in the market, he probably made the most sense out of any realistic trade target.

That said, it's a very aggressive move for a team that has exactly zero depth on the offensive side. One more DL trip for Joe Mauer and this team might fall out of it and be faced with an interesting keeper picture for '08. Still, so few teams are really positioned to make a run at the board that it might make sense to roll the dice against the other 4 contenders to see what happens. (Teddy)

Lefty's Revenge

• Signed Xavier Nady, OF, Pittsburgh [6/16]


• Signed Heath Bell, RP, San Diego; Released Jason Schmidt, SP, San Fran [6/30]


• Released Anthony Reyes, SP, St. Louis [7/14]


• Claimed off waivers Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Houston; Released Joe Smith, RP, New York (NL) [7/15]

I know our beloved commissioner last year said that addition by subtraction is asinine, but in this case, getting Anthony Reyes off your roster is a must---he's about 3 sessions with Dallas Green from turning into Anthony Young. Ah, Dallas Green. BP once described him has "baseball's version of genital herpes--lies dormant for long periods of time, only to flare up painfully at the most inopportune times." (El Angelo)

Reyes's half-season performance put him on pace to join the Matt Young All-Stars, so it's tough to argue with the decision to cast that particular bit of bread upon the water. Posit: Xavier Nady is the poor man's Jose Guillen. Make of that what you will. (Teddy)

M**e

• Signed Billy Butler, OF, Kanasas City; Released David Aardsma, RP, Kansas City [7/3]

You dropped an inconsequential reliever for a potential stud outfielder, albeit one that makes Jose Offerman look graceful. Trust me, this is a good move. (El Angelo)

The addition of Butler was driven by the prospect/keeper requirements, so this is really better viewed as a decision to cut Aardsma. Of course, even viewed that way, it's still a smart move, unless we've started measuring players alphabetically. (Teddy)

Nigerian Gentlemen

• Signed Placido Polanco, 2B, Detroit; Released Heath Bell, RP, San Diego [6/17]


• Signed Manny Corpas, RP, Colorado; Released Joakim Soria, RP, Kansas City [7/1]


• Signed Johnny Estrada, C, Milwaukee; Released Freddy Garcia, SP, Philadelphia [7/3]


• Signed Gary Glover, RP, Chicago (AL); Released Micah Owings, SP, Arizona [7/5]

The pitching stuff is sort of in the category of messing with deck chairs on the Titanic and of little consequence, so I'll instead tip my hat at the sensibility behind a pair of nice bench pickups. With Uncle Mike shelved indefinitely, the catcher ranks are pretty thin, and while Estrada won't remind anyone of Todd Hundley, he's also not reminiscent of Joel Skinner or Kelly Shoppach, and makes a handy replacement that will allow you to tread water. The Polanco pickup is a smart one in theory, but this team's already cruising with Brian Roberts playing lights out at 2B and Freddy Sanchez as the jack-of-all-trades backup, so query whether he's of any use whatsoever. Still, not exactly a wasted spot as he can hit and score in peripheral categories, and Roberts is always eligible for the DL in a heartbeat, so nicely done. (El Angelo)

I like Placido Polanco as well, but I'd be lying to you if I said I was happy with that pickup. Not so much because I think it's bad on the merits, but because we now get to look forward to 6 weeks of Mr. Eko trying to pawn Polanco off on the rest of the league. Based on the GRBG's confidential sources deep within Nigeria, the Gentlemen are asking for Albert Pujols in return for Polanco, but would, in a pinch, settle for Miguel Cabrera. (Teddy)

President Skroob

• Signed Kei Igawa, SP, New York (AL) and Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida; Released Conor Jackson, 1B, Arizona and Kip Wells, SP, St. Louis [6/19]


• Signed Kevin Cameron, RP, San Diego; Released Matt Belisle, SP, Cincy [6/27]


• Traded J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee and Roy Oswalt, SP, Houston to The Sex Cannons for Miguel Tejada, SS, Baltimore; Released Hermida [6/27]


• Signed Kelly Johnson, 2B, Atlanta and Ryan Theirot, SS, Chicago (NL); Released Adrian Beltre, 3B, Seattle [6/28]
  
• Signed Michael Bourn, OF, Philly, Matt Morris, SP, San Fran and Matt Guerrier, RP, Minnesota; Released Randy Wolf, SP, Los Angeles and Igawa [7/8]


• Signed Jonny Gomes, OF, Tampa Bay; Released Austin Kearns, OF, Washington [7/11]


• Traded Coco Crisp, OF, Boston, Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis, Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis and Barry Zito, SP, San Fran to Le Dupont Torkies for James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles, Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles, Jonathan Broxton, RP, Los Angeles and Jon Lester, SP, Boston [7/12]
  
• Signed Esteban German, 2B, Kansas City; Released Gomes [7/13]


• Traded Kelly Johnson, 2B, Atlanta to Ervin Santana, SP, Anaheim [7/14]

You could simply just name this list of transactions Anaconda, a/k/a Pass the Trash, but essentially I've traded in most of my bargaining chips (Zito, Carpenter, Oswalt) for players I think and hope will be useful towards next year; namely, a stud SS (Tejada), a young 1B (Loney), and a bunch of scratch-off tickets on pitchers (Broxton, Billingsley, Santana, Lester). Really, the only thing I'm dubious about is giving Hardy up in the process, but he wasn't getting kept anyway. Anywho, I turn it over to Teddy for impartial analysis. (El Angelo)

I can swing the impartial part, but it's more than a little difficult to meaningfully analyze any transactions column involving 28 players. Somehow, during a one-month period (a week of which was spent on a fishing boat in Portgual), Ang either acquired or dismissed more players than actually fit on a roster in this league (23).

About all I can do is look at the roster as currently constituted and decide whether I like it. My knee-jerk reaction is that there are still enormous holes at C (relatively easy to fix in the draft) and all three OF slots (much harder to fix in a single draft). But there's the makings of a roster core in here somewhere, if El Ang can stop feeding his team into the woodchipper just to see the spray. (Teddy)

The Sex Cannons

• Signed Jack Cust, OF, Oakland; Released Lenny DiNardo, SP, Oakland [6/20]


• Released Mark Reynolds, 2B, Arizona [6/21]
  
• Traded Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit for Jim Thome, 1B, Chicago (AL) and a 2nd round draft pick in the 2008 draft; Released Cust; Signed Brendan Harris, SS, Tampa Bay [6/22]


• Signed Julian Tavarez, SP, Boston [6/23]


• Signed Willie Harris, OF, Atlanta; Released Matt Morris, SP, San Fran [6/24]


• Signed Matt Stairs, 1B, Toronto; Released Tavarez [6/26]


• Traded Miguel Tejada, SS, Baltimore to President Skroob for J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee and Roy Oswalt, SP, Houston; Released B. Harris and Felix Pie, OF, Chicago (NL) [6/27]


• Signed Paul Shuey, RP, Cleveland; Released Stairs [6/30]


• Signed Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City, Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Houston and Chris Duncan, OF, St. Louis; Released Shuey, W. Harris and Nick Johnson, 1B, Washington [7/8]


• Released Wandy Rodriguez [7/12]

The other exceedingly long transaction line has a nice blend of help for this year and a save for next year as well. Roy Oswalt & Jim Thome should both be big factors in making a run for it this year, and JJ Hardy's not a terrible fill-in for losing Tejada. To top that off, they've added a 2nd rounder for next year, allowing them to do a little reloading when top talent comes due in the way of keeper hell in March. Most of the pitching moves are boring and inconsequential, with the exception of the Zach Greinke addition, who I still continue to hold out hope for. Then again, I was still touting Ismael Valdez in 2002, so maybe I'm not a great reader of talent. (El Angelo)

All I can say is that Julian Tavarez is jacked and pumped to have been picked up. (Teddy)

New Sister Blog

For all those who can't get enough racing, we've launched our sister site, Racing Esoterica, for everyone's pleasure. To be updated in earnest starting this week.

Cup Check

Don't look now, but between: (1) last night's 2-1 victory over Uruguay, which put the U.S. into the quarterfinals of the under-20 World Cup; and (2) last month's Gold Cup victory over Mexico, the U.S. soccer program might be on its way to setting a new Top 5 high-water mark. What, you might ask, is the current Top 5?

5. 1950 World Cup: U.S. 1-0 England

Yeah, you read that right. The U.S. actually beat England at the '50 cup. There's a bit of an asterisk here, as the game was played in Brazil, and travel from London to South America was no joke back then. Still, the win was contemporaneously viewed as a huge upset.

The U.S. team (which was largely made up of recent immigrants) promptly loses its next match, goes home, and watches their kids become shortstops.

4. 1994 World Cup: We Get a Man Killed

FIFA awards the '94 Cup hosting responsiblities to the U.S. in much the same way that the Mormons send missionaries to the South Pacific: in the vain hope that exposure to The Truth will somehow distract the residents of paradise from their heathen pursuits.

The U.S. team responds by making it out of the group stage with a 1-1-1 record most notable for a win over Colombia driven by a Colombian own-goal. The guy who scored that goal is promptly gunned down upon his return to Colombia, which probably doesn't do much to convince the average American of the virtues of the "Beautiful Game."

3. 1990: The Shot Heard 'Round The World (Except in the U.S.)


Paul Caligiuri scores a fantastic goal in Trinidad to qualify the U.S. for the World Cup for the first time in 40 years. No U.S. sports fans notice, and the team is run off the field at the '90 Cup in Italy.

However, aspiring sportswriters around the country see the AP datelines from the matches and realize that, if they begin covering the U.S. soccer team, there's a chance that they could make work-funded trips to Trinidad and Italy. Domestic coverage of the U.S. soccer team increases exponentially.
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2. 1981: Bill Simmons Watches "Victory" for the First Time

The movie becomes, along with 90210 and Joe the Alcoholic Counter Guy, one of the lynchpins of the Sports Guy empire.

1. 2002 World Cup: Vague Respectability

The U.S. plays exactly 35 minutes of good soccer at the tournament: the first 25 minutes of its first game, in which it carjacks a complacent Portuguese team to the tune of a 3-0 lead; and 10 minutes worth of sporadic counter-attacks against Mexico, which lead to a 2-0 win in the Sweet Sixteen.

OK, that's actually unfair--the team played well against Germany in the quarters, and were unlucky not to take the match into extra time. But the world tends to remember results, and Portugal and Mexico were the team's best-ever results in a major tournament.

And that's why we might be on the verge of a new high.

The U.S. beat Mexico in the (North America/Carribean Championship) Gold Cup final for the first time ever, using guile (a quasi-dive that led to a penalty kick) and skill (a fantastic volleyed goal) to win. Both guile and skill have traditionally been in short supply for the U.S., which tends to rely on effort and stamina.

And now the under-20 team is putting on the first genuine display of football in U.S. history. Freddy Adu and Jozy Altidore have each scored classy goals. The team beat Brazil 2-1 in the group stages, and, shockingly, deserved the win.



Even in last night's shaky display against Uruguay the team showed more composure on the ball, best exemplified by a moment from late in extra time when the U.S. was trying to hold the lead. The U.S. central defender hoofed a ball out wide in his own end to Michael Bradley. Rather than just hammer it downfield, where it would go right back to Uruguay, Bradley settled it, beat one Uruguayan attacker with a juke, and carried the ball upfield. That would NEVER happen in the past.

This U-20 team could actually make a run. So pay attention (and ignore the JV team's Copa America shellacking--we basically punted that tournament). The quarterfinal match against Austria is on Saturday, and the matches are being televised on Galavision. Why not us?

Midseason Recap

With the All-Star break and all of its concomitant pageantry upon us, it's time for us to use the power of this fully armed and operational blog to look back on our preseason predictions. Basically, on a Wrongness Scale of Ballpark Sushi to Hammer Pants, our predictions slot in at a solid Rumsfeld.

But the GRBG's committment to accountability is second only to its committment to small-batch bourbon. So, despite the embarassment factor of re-hashing our mistakes in public, we're going to forge ahead. Below are mideseason recaps of each team, from worst to first, with our preseason prediction alongside for reference. For the curious, here's a link to the league website. (Teddy)

I'm tempted to email Nate Silver or Jim Baker from Baseball Prospectus to ask them if they can invent a fantasy statistic like volatility, because with the exception of about 3 teams, this has been a pretty bouncy first half of a season. I think we've had no fewer than 5 team occupy the first spot (excluding the first two weeks), and there are still a bunch of teams in it.

To make this review even more complete and to give y'all even more ammo, I'm going to assign each team a major league counterpart, by whom I think they most resemble, based on where they are right now, where they should finish, and their '08 prospects. I'm nothing if not a glutton for additional material for criticism later on. (El Angelo)

12. President Skroob (Preseason Prediction: Ang 12/Teddy 12)

To our credit, we here at the GRBG managed to correctly predict that the team with exactly zero veteran keepers was going to do poorly this season. Pretty slick analysis, there. The real question is whether the team is pointed in the right direction for the future--it can be easy to chase successive waves of prospects only to find that you've attempted to surf to the league title on the backs of so many Todd Van Poppels.

The short answer there is that it looks like help may in fact be on the way. With Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun, and Edwin Encarnacion, the team has three young, potentially elite cornermen. The same is true in the rotation, with young Adam Miller coming along to support a Chris Carpenter/Barry Zito core. There's a ton of work to be done in the outfield and up the middle (Dioner Navarro and Ryan Theriot aren't going to cut it), but with a good draft, this team could be right back in it next year. (Teddy)

While the wisenheimer in me would first think the parallel for this team is the New Orleans Zephyrs, that's probably being unfair even to myself, and in reality, this is the league's version of the Kansas City Royals: some good keepers that will build to next year's squad which may be near contention. May. Even I'm not that optimistic. I had hoped that we'd have this year's Devil Rays, to be honest. (El Angelo)

11. Mike (Preseason Prediction: Ang 6/Teddy 5)

Once again our prediction was dead-on, assuming you're willing to use the sum of Ang's guess and my guess. That said, a tip of the cap to El Ang for this nugget from the season preview:

I'll go on record with saying there's no shot they'll actually finish in 6th---this strikes me as a team that's going to either run into the top 2 slots, or crater badly[.]

Mike has suffered through a who's-who of bullpen injuries, with BJ Ryan, Huston Street, and Brad Lidge all shelved. He's also had to deal with 2/3 of his starting OF (Johnny Damon and Andruw Jones) being diagnosed with hyperactive suck glands. This team needs to get younger and healthier in a hurry, or the good work it's done over the past few offseasons will be wasted. (Teddy)

The current place in the standings isn't what's really a surprise for the fantasy version of the St. Louis Cardinals, it's how they've gotten here. I thought the strategy was a bold one at the start of the year, but it requires perfect execution, and while M**e hasn't ostensibly made any mistakes, his luck quotient has a zero denominator at this point. Even with a conventional approach to the squad, it's unlikely that any team in a league this close could survive killing off three closers and a pair of bad OF's, let alone one that doesn't have sublime starters.

What we do have here, though, is a squad that's in the catbird seat for trading possibilities: it's folly to think that Clemens and Maddux can help these guys next year, and valuable chit like Holliday, Jones, Lee and Furcal are all in their walk year. You have to think they're major players in the trade market now, especially with a bunch of contenders needing help in those precise places. Not to ratchet up the pressure, but how this team handles the next 4 weeks is going to be a fun test of M**e's abilities to setup next year. (El Angelo)

10. abe vigodas spleen (Preseason Prediction: Ang 10/Teddy 11)

Back on track with the predictions. Ol' abe's problem is that they're burdened with average to slightly below-average players at every position. That situation is a lot harder to remedy than a situation where there is a core of stars surrounded by, well, Ryan Theriot. The pitching might be OK going forward, with Smoltz/Cain/Bonderman leading the way, but there's not much to speak of on offense besides Vlad. (Teddy)

I'm a bit more bullish on this team than Teddy---Bay is obviously a helluva player, and Adrian Gonzalez has established himself as a very good 1B. And that doesn't count the fact that there's a bunch of fun flyers here like Zimmerman, Peralta and Hill as guys that can help you. More importantly, they have very good starting pitching, which is eons harder to get than very good hitting on draft day. I like the direction the Fantasy Devil Rays are taking. That being said, I think there's no way in hell they rise above this number at the end of the year. (El Angelo)

9. Lefty's Revenge (Preseason Prediction: Ang 5/Teddy 7)

Here's the first team whose underperformance can be chalked up neither to plan nor to injuries. Rather, essentially every player on the team other than Prince Fielder and Lance Berkman has chosen to turn in a first-half performance that fell below expectations. Perhaps a lineup reshuffling is in order, with Mark Teahen displacing Chad Tracy Austin at 3B and Jeff Francoeur slotting into the OF. The real problem is that the team needs table-setting types who steal bases and score runs, and those guys just aren't freely available during the season--it's easier to find guys who accidentally get 85 RBIs batting cleanup for some terrible team. (Teddy)
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That's true, but there's also a bunch of guys here that have had good-better than expected seasons; while healthy BJ Upton was outperforming his expectations, Chris Young hasn't sucked, and even Javy Vazquez has quietly had a solid year. The real killer here is the 62 innings of absolute garbage that Anthony Reyes and Jason Schmidt posted this year. If those guys had pitched ZERO innings for this team, their ERA and WHIP would have dropped enough to gain them 9 points (sadly, I did the math), which would still keep them in 9th place, but would have at least made their showing primarily a result of the flukes Teddy alluded to and the roster flaw that these guys can't steal a base. As that is not the case, what we have here is our version of the Texas Rangers. Maybe they can get Juan Gone to provide them with some of his steroids. (El Angelo)

8. Hand Banana (Preseason Prediction: Ang: 1/Teddy 4)

Whoops. So, what the hell went wrong here? Part of it was the foreseeable failure of some of the starting pitchers, as Bronson Arroyo and Andy Pettitte (among others) have come back to Earth a bit. But a lot of it has been dumb luck--the pitching has been solid in every category except Wins. If we're being honest, a lot of the Wins category is luck--all you can do is pick pitchers with decent K rates and WHIPs and send them out into the world to do the best they can.

The offense has the opposite problem. OBP drives most of the other offensive categories. Yet HB is solid in every category but OBP. To me, that's a signal that the offense might regress in the second half (and is a big part of why I still don't like my own team). In HB's case, though, his lineup has such a track record (be it in the minors or majors), that they're still likely to improve. This team reminds me of my own last year--everyone knows it's better than this, but the slow start and league contract structure might mean that HB has to tear it down and start again anyway. (Teddy)

See, much like the real-life Yankees, I don't think this team necessarily needs to blow it up and try again, they're closer to the money than they appear. The gap between them and an additional 10 easy points (and a spot in 4th place) is 25 runs, 10 HRs, 9 OBP points, none of which is too ridiculous a proposition for a team with a lineup that's just loaded. The pitching doesn't really have the margin for growth the offense does, but there's no reason these guys couldn't play infinitely better in the 2nd half, catch fire, get to 80 points, and get a piece of the purse. The real question is whether it's a sounder strategy to look to win next year with a very very solid core and punt this year's money to deal off Crawford, etc., for useful players for next year, as while 3rd place isn't out of the question, 1st place just might be. (El Angelo)

7. Le Dupont Torkies (Preseason Prediction: Ang 4/Teddy 3)

We're now into the peloton, as only four points separate the next four teams, all of whom are chasing the lead pack of 3. So, really, teams 6-7 are better than their ranking makes them look, and teams 4-5 probably aren't as good as the rankings make them seem.

This team has one of the stranger offensive lines you'll see. They're among the league leaders in runs, RBI, and OBP, but have neither power (T-8th in HR) nor speed (T-9th in SB). I have absolutely no idea what to make of this. They must lead the universe in doubles. (Teddy)

This team has accumulated stats from FORTY THREE discreet players, ranging from the other-worldly season that Alex Rodriguez is putting together to the fantastic line of Ryan Shealy: 0-for-12 with 1 RBI. What's really happened, I think, is this team has become the New York Mets and accumulated something of a stars and scrubs angle---Utley, A-Rod, and Hafner are probably among the 15 best fantasy players, and the rest of the hitters are an amalgam of oddities that sometimes have and sometimes haven't produced. What this team really needs is a contributor in that DH slot: Jason Bartlett is not the answer to carrying your team to repeat. (El Angelo)

6. The Spam Avengers (Preseason Prediction: Ang 3/Teddy 1)

TSA was near the top of league for much of the early going before sinking beneath the weight of its iffy starting pitching. Like nearly everyone else in the league, TSA needs another starter or two and another OFer (Nick Markakis and Mike Cameron are not the answer) to patch the holes in his team. Unfortunately, the commonness of those holes is going to make the trade market really tight--to the extent that anyone has spare pitching, it's going to be costly. (Teddy)

This is one of the best owners in the league, but if he can pull this one out, I'll be impressed. There's actually not a lot of guys underperforming on the roster, and while injuries have hurt, building your team on Giambi, Piazza and Eunuch somewhat embodies the risk inherent in shooting for the moon. Tough pill to swallow, but I think these guys need to punt off what they can and go for next year; the starting pitching is young and interesting enough that they'll be competitive in '08 with a good draft of hitters. You know, kinda like the Diamondbacks. (El Angelo)

5. Nigerian Gentlemen (Preseason Prediction: Ang 8/Teddy 8)

This team bounced back nicely from the untimely death of its namesake, and put in a good run towards the end of the first half. This is as close to a pitching-and-defense team as you'll ever see in a fantasy league, with strong SP performances from King Felix and B[r]ad Penny supporting good offensive showings in R, SB, and OBP. If the team's theoretical big boppers (Manny and Papi) ever find their power strokes, this team could have one more surge left in it and maybe scramble its way into the money picture. (Teddy)

I wholly agree, which is why borderline teams like TSA may want to look to next year. This squad's in good shape and their big players have had middling at best seasons at the plate. Much like the Tigers, I expect huge things here in the 2nd half; there's plenty of room and ability in the power categories for them to make a run to the top. Even if Jeremy Guthrie turns into a pumpkin, he's their fifth best starter, for crying out loud. Major threat. (El Angelo)

4. Ed Rooney's Office (Preseason Prediction: Ang 9/Teddy 9)

With all due respect to myself, this is a fluke in a lot of ways. Not so much on the pitching side--this is a good staff, and their stellar performance in the 4 SP categories (W, K, ERA, and WHIP, where their current rankings are T-1, 1, T-2, and 2, respectively) is nice, but not shocking. But there is no way that anyone could have foreseen this team sitting in 3rd in HRs at the halfway mark.

And, frankly, it's unlikely that they'll stay there. After all, the odds of Carlos Pena hitting another 20 dingers after the break is slim-to-none. Some of that regression will be made up for by a better second half from the bullpen (where Mariano Rivera will likely get more save opportunities in the second half, and one of Tom Gordon or Brett Myers will get healthy), but not enough. I just don't see where the 5 extra points needed to hit the board are going to come from. (Teddy)

The mistake we made at the beginning of the year was not really appreciating the fact that this was a top-3 staff, and that fact alone would give the squad 45-50 points with just expected performance. Add to that an offense that's gone out of this world with oddball performances and flukes, and here we are. It's appropos that Teddy does the Seattle Mariners for SOSH, as that's who this team represents; a team that actually has some talent in spots, but isn't as good as its record. Still, it's doubtful they'll fall too far--there aren't a lot of assets to trade off here for next year and others around them may punt instead. Nice consolidation year for my co-author. (El Angelo)

3. Evil Empire (Preseason Prediction: Ang 11/Teddy 10)

EE is the runaway winner of the We Here At The GRBG Are A Bunch Of Dunces, Ain't We? award for the first half, as our average prediction managed to miss the team's actual first-half finish by a cool 7.5 slots. They've ridden their bullpen, Derek Jeter, Brandon Philips, Junior Griffey, and a solid catcher platoon to a spot on the board. Boy, when you say it that way it doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense, does it?

What the team really has going for it is a power threat at every position, which goes a long way towards pushing a team to the top. One potential pitfall is that the team is currently on pace to overshoot its innings limit by more than 50, so some of the pitching stats are a touch inflated. Still, they could bench everyone right now and still finish better than our prediction. Job well done. (Teddy)

I have given up trying to make sense of Gaynor's teams. I thought they would be good two years ago, and they sucked. I thought they weren't any good last year, and they were good. I thought they'd be near me this year, and they're doing great. In an effort to not kill his chances in the second half of the year, I'll just demur. (El Angelo)

2. The Sex Cannons (Preseason Prediction: Ang 2/Teddy 2)

Yahtzee! (Teddy)

There isn't even much here to note, as the team's played almost exactly as I thought it would. So on a side note, according to this site, our blog is rated NC-17, while Deadspin is rated G, apparently because we use the word 'shit' too often. Huh? Who do these bastards think they are? Fuck them. (El Angelo)

1. It's Enrico Palazzo (Preseason Prediction: Ang 7/Teddy 6)

This is possibly the league's best team up the middle with Russell Martin, Chone Figgins, and Hanley Ramirez. The pitching is solid as well, with Cole Hamels and CC Sabathia making The Leap to join Jake Peavy. There's not a lot of depth on offense, with current UTIL man Eric Byrnes a great candidate to regress in the second half, and no obvious candidate to replace him. Any injuries on that side of the ball could take the wind out of their sails pretty quickly. But their amazing depth in pitching (I haven't even mentioned Fausto Carmona or Chien-Ming yet) is going to make them tough to catch. They're looking great to hit the board at the very least. (Teddy)

My experience has been there are two ways to win fantasy leagues. The first, and less common way, is to be a savant at drafting and just blow everyone away from Day One with your accumen, either due to your greatness or the rest of the league's mediocrity. (I won a football league this way two years ago by somehow being able to get on draft day Shaun Alexander in his MVP season, Thomas Jones, Chad Johnson, Chris Chambers, Torry Holt, Carson Palmer and Jeremy Shockey. The rest of the league didn't stand a chance.) That is much more common in non-keeper leagues and is even less common in a league where everyone knows more or less what they're doing. The more conventional way is to build a squad that looks solid at the start of the year, and have everything start to break right in terms of breakout years, career years, injury-free seasons and few underperformances.

And that's almost precisely what we have here. Martin, Hanley and Rios have all broken out the right way, making them a force to be reckoned with. The other hitters have all done their job, with the exception of Michael Young, whose demise is offset by having Chone at 2B. And sure, Peavy has made this a forceful rotation, but in everyone else they've assembled, it's a squad that's high on performance, low on bullshit. They've gone from an interesting idea to the heavy favorite at the halfway point. I still think the Grossmans and Ekos can catch them, but it's not going to be easy.

As a final note: this is the first year this team is at the top, and it's also the first year they're without Barry Bonds. Conversely, this is the first year the Spam Avengers are playing like shit, and who's in their OF? Bad karma dude. Bad karma. (El Angelo)

Fantasy vs. Reality

We're now exactly halfway through the season (as measured by games played by the Red Sox), so this is a good time to check in on who the most valuable fantasy players have been at each position this year. For want of a better metric, I'm using the Yahoo! season-to-date rankings for our fantasy league (which is a typical 5x5 league, except that we use OBP instead of BA). Those fantasy ranking seem like a good proxy for the generally-accepted wisdom on player performance. But how do the fantasy rankings stack up against the cutting-edge of basement-dweller technology?

To see how much the ideal fantasy offense and the ideal real-life offense have differed this year, I'm also going to toss in the positional leaders by Baseball Prospectus's VORP metric (chosen because it is a metric that: (a) actually reflects real-life value; and (b) like fantasy ball, leaves out defense). Let's see how much roto ball distorts the true value of players at the top of the spectrum. Onwards. .

C: Russell Martin, LAD (VORP leader: Victor Martinez, CLE)

Martin has improved on his already-impressive rookie numbers in just about the best way possible: by adding extra-base hits (XBH). Martin already has 9 dingers in 78 games this year, after hitting 10 in 120 games last year, and has also edged up his doubles rate slightly. And he's done all this while keeping his overall contact and walk rates at their previous levels.

All of which is a long way of saying that Martin's performance is neither a fluke nor an artifact of the way fantasy stats measure player value. He might not hold off Martinez for the full-season title, but he's younger and a valuable commodity going forward.

Of course, the best thing about Martin is that his chosen career is probably a fantastic way of pissing off his absentee father, who is an itinerant subway musician in Montreal. I can't think of a more complete way for the son of a French-Canadian jazz musician to reject his father's values than to become a big-league ballplayer. The rough American equivalent would be if Donald Rumsfeld's son fled to Brittany to take up a career in Camembert making. Cat's in the cradle, etc., etc.

1B: Gary Sheffield, DET (VORP leader: Prince Fielder, MIL)

I'm not sure anybody saw this one coming. Sheffield was terrible for the first chunk of the season, but has come on strong lately to take the lead among fantasy first baseman. Sheff's lead is due in large part to his 11 steals, which are tops among all 1B-eligible players this season. For those wondering why Sheffield is on this list, I should note that among players who have played a majority of their games at 1B, Fielder is the fantasy leader.

Also, Yankee fans might want to take note that the highest-ranking Yankee first baseman this year for fantasy purposes is Jason "I Do Not Recall, Senator" Giambi, who comes in at a cool 53rd on the Yahoo list. But, hey, Andy Phillips is here to save the day!

2B: Chase Utley, PHI (VORP leader: Utley)

Duh.

SS: Jose Reyes, NYM (VORP leader: Hanley Ramirez, FLA)

It's basically a 1A/1B situation between Reyes and Hanley, with Hanley getting a little bit of a VORP bump from the fact that he plays his home games in a slightly worse offensive environment. Reyes's huge dependence on his wheels probably makes Hanley the slightly better bet going forward, as he'd still have enough power to be valuable even without a ton of steals. Still, can't really argue against either guy.

3B: Alex Rodriguez, NYY (VORP leader: Rodriguez)

A-Rod is in the midst of putting up another gigantic walk-year line for a mediocre team in order to make himself more attractive to franchises that have the chance to compete for a ring next year. Giggle.

OF1: Magglio Ordonez, DET (VORP leader: Ordonez)

OF2: Grady Sizemore, CLE (VORP 2nd place: Ichiro)

OF3: Tie: Ichiro Suzuki, SEA/Sheffield (VORP 3rd place: Barry Bonds)

The VORP comparison here is a little screwy because CFs are measured from a different baseline than corner OFs, which makes any list that combines CFs and corner OFs a bit of an apples-to-oranges deal. The USS Mariner guys have been beating the "Ichiro for MVP" drum for about a month now, and it's starting to look like they're on to something. Ichiro's defense is certainly better than that of Bonds and Magglio, and he now plays a more difficult defensive position. Not a lot of guys climb back up the defensive spectrum after age 30, so we've identified yet another way in which Ichiro appears to be a freak.

When I saw the fantasy and VORP lists side-by-side, I was struck by how closely they overlapped. Leaving aside quirks of positional eligibility, the top of an OBP 5x5 league look almost exactly like the top of the VORP rankings. It turns out that, for the casual fan, just following a properly-constructed fantasy league can give you a pretty solid idea of the who the top guys are at each position.

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So perhaps it's not surprising that both the Yahoo! and VORP lists look an awful lot like the All-Star starters this year, with only Sheffield, VMart, and Sizemore not in the starting lineup (and only Sheff not at the game at all). For all the value that advanced metrics like VORP provide (and we here at the GRBG will go on record as loving BP), the fans got the All-Star starters pretty close to right just by dicking around at work on their fantasy teams. That sure seems like progress right there.