Season Preview: Elbow Your Funicular?

Yes, we know that isn't really the name of this franchise. But our corporate overlords at Google are everywhere, and we couldn't pass up the opportunity to run a few photos with this preview. So we've taken the liberty of google-proofing the post title, in the hopes of preserving the anonymity of the innocent and keeping the lovely, funny, and charming wife of the innocent from running us over with a lawnmower.

With that in mind, on with the preview.

This past offseason saw the Funicular Elbows bump up against the limits of the league keeper system. Their response was sort of fascinating, as they chose to keep a few superstars at the cost of any depth whatsoever, and ended up assembling most of their roster at the very end of the draft, about 3 days after everyone else had stopped paying attention. It's the stars and scrubs strategy writ large. Let's see what the results have been to date.

Infield

Let's start with the good news: the foundation of Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, and A-Rod is as good as you'll find, assuming that A-Rod hasn't contracted the Bo Jackson Hip-Eating Virus. The supplementary guys are, well...really less lke supplements and more like suppositories. We don't want to ruin the PECOTA predictions that will run later, but it's worth pointing out that PECOTA thinks this team is starting two different .312 OBPs in its IF. That's not really a recipe for success. Of course, the presence of a few obvious holes mean that the team will be able to quickly target big improvements via trade or waiver wire lottery ticket. The big 3 here is enough to keep this unit respectable, regardess of the ominous presence of a Molina brother on the starting roster.



Outfield

Here we come to the first major flaw with this team's stars and scrubs strategy--it only works if you have, you know, stars. Carlos Beltran clearly qualifies, but unfortunately the list stops there. Nelson Cruz is a fun flyer to have, but as a second OF he's a little shaky. The third slot (and, until A-Rod gets back, the DH slot) will be taken up by platoon OF's Choo-Choo Choo and Dr. Xavier Nady. While fantasy value and real-world value don't always overlap, it's still a good rule of thumb that a player who isn't good enough to start full-time for his real team also isn't good enough to start for your fantasy team. Having two such guys, even if only for a month, is a big red flag. Look upon them, for they are malpractice.

Pitching

So far we've looked at an infield which is stars and scrubs, followed by an outfield which is star (singular) and scrubs. Lamentably, that trend continues to its logical conclusion with the pitching staff. There are several fun guys on the staff--I had Ricky Nolasco, Chris Carpenter, and Kelvim Escobar targeted as potential flyers--but there isn't a single guy here you'd want to count on to perform over a full season. Given the inherent volatility of pitchers and pitching staffs, you can tolerate a little more risk among your starters. But there's a lingering suspicion here that the Elbows have accumulated a portfolio of Lehman Brothers shares.

The pen is in better shape, with one elite guy in Brad Lidge and two other closers with relatively solid grasps on their jobs in Chad Qualls and Heath Bell. The way to go here might be for this team to punt wins, and try to compete in the other 4 categories as best it can. That strategy hasn't been all that effective in this league (just ask the dear departed M@#e, if you can find his secret lair hiddent deep in the primeval Bolivian rain forest), but it might be the best shot on the table for this team if the SP flyers don't pan out.

Outlook

Flags fly forever, and this team is feeling the effects of its run a couple of years ago. This sure looks like a rebuilding campaign, and should be marked by a ton of activity in the trade market, as there's no denying the presence of some real prizes on the roster.

Season Preview: Mission Accomplished

Yes, it's once again the most pointless-est time of the year here at the GRBG, when we take a shot at previewing the championship prospects of each of the teams in the league. While we enjoy these previews, we've always been a little leery of making firm predictions. We don't want to hurt feelings (including our own) by forecasting teams to finish in the toilet. And we also don't want to look like total idiots when it turns out our predictions were brutally incorrect.

As a result, we've added a new wrinkle this year. Once we've talked our way through all of the teams, we'll be turning to Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection system to predict the league. We have already run the projected lineups for each team through the system. While we don't want to spoil the results, we will say that PECOTA has a clear favorite this year, and predicts there will be new blood at the top of the heap.

But before we get to the computers, let's take an old-fashioned look at each of the teams, starting with Mission Accomplished. This franchise has been on a rebuilding program that has stretched on further than the rebuilding of Tikrit. This year, though, they actually traded for players rather than future draft picks, and managed to assemble a serviceble core on offense.

As a result they've adopted Dubya's optimistic slogan as their team name this year. The name is fitting, given that this team likely won't actually accomplish their mission until another five years and one regime change have passed. On a related note, we predict the league will admit its first black owner in 2014.

Infield

Almost certainly the strength of the team this season, with The Best Fantasy Player in Baseball (Albert Pujols) anchoring a unit that also boasts top-3 catcher Brian McCann and solid citizens Kelly Johnson and Garrett Atkins. Ryan Theriot is also present, presumably because Rey Ordonnez was unavailable. But hey, there are a couple of teams with multiple viable SS options, so the Theriot hole might be patchable via trade later in the season. Joey Votto is lurking, and a good bet to produce more RBI this year with Junior Griffey and Adam Dunn gone from Cincy.

Outfield

Young, fast, and stupid. Or, in other words, the Revenge of Esix Snead. The OF is built around future stud Matt Kemp, who fronts a group of talented young flakes. It's inarguable that Lastings Milledge, Adam Jones, and Shane Victorino can run; it's considerably more arguable whether two of the three will be any good at baseball this year. This is the part of the team that hasn't quite turned the corner from win-later (maybe) to win-now. That said, there's enough slugging in the IF that the team might be able to get away with starting a bunch of swift lottery tickets in the OF. The team's upside and downside are mostly concentrated here; if the OF comes through, the offense should be top-3 in nearly every category.

Pitching

There's a lot of youth on display here as well, though the team's young pitchers have proven a lot more than its young outfielders. Jon Lester, King Felix, and Matt Cain give the team a great young base of starting pitching, and they've built in some upside by banking on bounce-back years from former fantasy studs Justin Verlander and Fausto Carmona. Although the staff is young, all of the starters have shown themselves capable of handling a heavy workload. That combination of youth and proven durability make this staff one of the best overall injury risks in the league. Which is kind of funny, given the bullpen.

It's not that the relievers are all that fragile. It's that the relievers won't be worth very much unless there are some injuries in front of them in real life. Jose Arredondo and Hong-Chih Kuo have great stuff, but are buried behind relatively young, healthy closers. So while they'll help out the team's rate stats, they do nothing to fill the hole in the saves column.

The only closer on the roster right now is Charlie Villanueva's cousin Carlos. And since Carlos is worse than Charlie at every single athletic task other than growing eyebrows, it's unclear how many saves he'll rack up before crashing back to earth in middle relief. Unless both Arredondo and Kuo are promoted to closer, it's unclear how this team will escape the basement in the saves category. It's awfully tough to hit the board starting in an 11-point hole like that. Something will need to change here.

Outlook

Even with the issues at closer, this team has enough firepower and upside to keep the owner in the top half of the league, and focused on this year instead of some amorphus future horizon. In other words, expect a marked increase in trade proposals and TA word counts this season.

Live Blog: Day 4 of the Wankdorf Email Draft

At the suggestion of esteemed owner Jake, we're live blogging our draft, which is neither live nor in person, but instead by email. We're really scraping the bottom of the barrel here, because we can't even be Bill Simmons and relay lame jokes he told his father, since it's by email. On the plus side, we're starting this in round 9 of a keeper league draft with 12 fairly savvy owners, meaning the picks left are on their face comedic. Let's do it!

7:25 am. I wake up to find 11 emails that establish (1) that Jon and Andy don't speak about the league frequently, (2) Sahil will be picking in the morning, and (3) Corey stays up late. Anyway, our mid-night picks are John Maine (Wu Tang Financial) and John Smoltz (Aroids Anonymous).

In other words, one guy who can't pitch because he's hurt, and one guy who can't pitch because he can't pitch. Off to a good start. (Teddy)

8:09 am. Review of the list reveals that the next 4 picks go to Andy, Scot, Andrew and Tucker. Amazingly the 9th round is the first round in the draft where there hasn't been a traded pick.

8:27 am. The Commish kicks the day off by taking Grant Balfour, RP, Tampa. He's the second non-closer reliever taken this round, which I kicked off with Jose Arredondo, who also is not closing. This may signal a run on middle relievers.

8:46 am. Scot goes with Felipe Lopez, presumably not the former SI cover boy. If I had made this pick, about 14 Tarik Turner jokes would have followed.

The 11 remaining St. John's hoops fans are all over that joke. We could go back to making Torkie jokes and have a bigger audience. (Teddy)

10:16 am. Zzzzzzzzzzzz. Hey, the Cardinal Newman society has a petition up to ban Barack Obama from speaking at Notre Dame's commencement. I can't tell if this is an indictment on the zealots in the Newman club or a chance to take potshots at Notre Dame. Since I hate Notre Dame with a passion, I'll happily interpret it as (b).

10:25 am. One complaint later and we're rolling! The 2007 champ takes Jeremy Guthrie, who somehow is the ace of the Orioles' staff. The 2008 champ takes Slick Wily Taveras, who's better than the last OF they took (Denard Span). Potential 2039 champ Ironhead then goes back to back with a pair of Bay Area players: Giambino and Jonathan Sanchez. Clearly, Sahil is not springing for the Extra Innings package this year.

With Guthrie taken, do we now have a starter drafted or kept from every team? Has the bottom been reached? (Teddy)

10:29 am. Next 4 picks: Will, Jake, Alex and Teddy. This is roughly the point in the draft where (a) we see flyers taken on relievers and bench players, (b) prospects get taken to fill out the prospect lists, and (c) Rey Durham gets taken.

11:58 am. Beethoven is out of the Florida Derby and probably the Kentucky Derby with a leg injury. There goes that future bet.

12:52 pm. Live blogs only work when....things happen. William?

1:01 pm. To answer Teddy's earlier question: no. Nobody has taken a starting pitcher from either Texas or Washington.

I'd totally flaked on Texas; for some reason I thought the oft-imitated, never duplicated Oliver Perez ended up on the Nats instead of back in New York. Does Perez have naked pictures of Omar Minaya somewhere? (Teddy)

2:40 pm. Signs of life! Will lands in Denver, buys himself a Fat Tire, and takes Kelvim Escobar, marking the first year that Escobar hasn't started the year on Teddy's squad. Jake then ups the stupidity by selecting busted catcher Jorge Posada, but in fairness, he's a pretty decent gamble for the 228th player taken.

2:49 pm. Apparently the site's going down for a little while at 7 EDT, which is fine, because I'll probably be on a train home then. Next 4 up are Alex, Teddy, Jon and Corey.

3:06 pm. Some signs of life, as Alex goes with Jorge Cantu and Teddy shores up the catcher spot with Villa Napoli. Both fall in the category of "defensible and boring".

4:18 pm. Jon pulls the annual "make a catcher out of a non-catcher" trick by drafting Pablo Sandoval, who is eligible at C based on playing 11 games there last year. He follows in the fine tradition of Bob Fick, Brandon Inge, and Josh Willingham as guys who stink as position players but are fine catching options. Corey follows this up by picking BJ du jour Dustin McGowan, who might play again in July, and Andy curiously follows with the hated JD Drew.

I'm pretty sure Pablo Sandoval was a character in Grand Theft Auto 4. I actually don't mind Drew here, despite the fact that he has already had one cortisone injection in his back this season--for the 85 games he's healthy, he'll produce. (Teddy)

5:09 pm. Day's winding down, and we have polar opposite picks. Scot goes all upside with Jordan Zimmerman, while Andrew takes a crap with Adrian Beltre, who may have aged another year while I typed this. Tucker's on the clock to end this round. Crap, I have to start looking at player lists.

6:30 pm. In rapid succession, the Tucker-Angelo-Ironhead-Wilford quartet take Manny Corpas, Justin Masterson, Cory Snyder, and Shin Shoo-Choo, enabling Will to board a plane back home. Vegas has set the over/under of the combined VORP of this group of players at 8.5.

Transactions Analysis: The 2009 Draft

We have two choices: we can go several weeks without a TA, or we can do an impromptu analysis of the first couple of rounds of our draft. I say (b). Plus, our mock draft columns were hideous, so why not instead take a step back after the picks were made and say something about it? (El Angelo)

#1. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis (Mission Accomplished)

I gave Jose Reyes some thought because I'm a Met fan, but this was easy. (El Angelo)

No brainer picks like these don't really lend themselves to commentary. (Teddy)

#2. Jose Reyes, SS, St. Louis (AIDS AIDS AIDS AIDS)

The hump who screwed this all up. And no, I don't mean Jose. (El Angelo)

Another no-brainer. This one, though, is notable, if only because it represents the fastest keeper benching in league history. AAAA kept both a shortstop and a DH, meaning that there is no place for him to put Reyes without benching one of his keepers. If there has been a less efficient use of a keeper slot in league history, I can't think of it. Good player, though. (Teddy)

#3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Detroit (Elder Your Zinicola?)

The only "odd" thing about this pick is that the team is set at the corners come May with Subway Ryan Howard and A-Rod, and Fat Miggy might be a right fielder in 2010. Still, he's too good to pass on. (El Angelo)

Cabrera has already eaten his way off of 3B, and looks to be making a game effort to eat himself off of 1B as well. Once Detroit gets Sheffield off the books next year, Cabrera could be a DH-only guy, which takes away some of his value. But even with all that, it's not enough to pass here.

This is considerably less fun when good players are available. I miss the days of Curtis Granderson going first overall. (Teddy)

#4. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee (Recalcitrant Cobbler)

Run on fat guys! (El Angelo)

I think you mean waddle. (Teddy)

#5. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philly (The Spam Avengers)

The absolute worst break for a team that already boasted Stephen Drew at SS and desperately could have used a first baseman. Long-term it's probably the right pick, but this team's starters were with enough question marks (Cliff Lee's inevitable regression, Roy Oswalt's old ass, and Dice-K's Walkarama) that a Beckett pick here may not have been the worst idea. (El Angelo)

Another case of a team's first round pick forcing it to bench of one of its keepers. The question here is who sits: Drew, or one of the 4 talented OFs? I assume Drew will start the year on the bench, though we'll have to see. It's tough to argue with adding a top-3 middle IF to your team, though I agree that either an SP or a trade down would have been tempting here. There were guys targeting Rollins. (Teddy)

#6. Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago/NL (Unenviable Position)

Third easiest pick to make in the draft. How happy were you to see him fall, Mr. Portagee? (El Angelo)

Not at all. He's an aging hacker--if his SB totals go down he'll be a starter, but not a franchise guy. I was hoping for Rollins to fall so I could fill in my SS opening. (Teddy)

#7. Josh Beckett, SP, Boston (Wu Tang Financial)

The starters already here were solid enough (Prozach, Javy V, Kazmir), but Beckett at #7 is a steal. Correct pick. (El Angelo)

Beckett is the correct pick for a win-now, though Mauer has a better chance to provide elite value over the full 3-year keeper period (his current injury notwithstanding). We're standing at the edge of the chasm here, talent-wise, so there really weren't a ton of viable options. I mean, do yo really want to spend a first rounder on somebody like, I dunno, Carl Crawford or Shane Victorino? (Teddy)

#8. Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay (ARoids Anonymous)
#9. Shane Victorino, OF, Philly (Mission Accomplished)

Call this Me Defending My Own Pick, but let's compare the stat lines between these two players last year:

Crawford: .279/.319/.400, 8 HR, 25 SB
Victorino: .293/.352/.447, 14 HR, 36 SB

Now I'll grant that Crawford wasn't healthy last year and Victorino was. That's fine. Let's combine 2007 and 2008, where they've had almost exactly the same combined plate appearances.

Crawford: .297/.337/.437, 19 HR, 75 SB
Victorino: .288/.367/.437, 26 HR, 73 SB

Conclusion: either Crawford was taken too high, or Victorino was a good pick here. (El Angelo)

Third option: they both suck. Dudes slug .437! (Teddy)

#10. Rafael Furcal, SS, Los Angeles (Evil League of Evil)

It took me about 5 minutes to figure out what team he was in. In fairness, it also took Frank Wren that long. (El Angelo)

Full disclosure: I had a fallback plan for missing out on Rollins. After careful consideration of injury profiles, team offensive characteristics, and player aging curves, I concluded that Raffy Furcal was going to have an only slightly sub-Rollins year. I prepared myself to grab him in round 3 or 4, then cackle at my own brilliance.

Then this pick happened.

Unsurprisingly, I have very mixed feelings about it. On the one hand, love the player this year. On the other hand, 10th overall? For a player who can't possibly be better than 4th-best at his position? On, well, I'm out of hands, so I guess it would be the other foot, I might just be jealous. It's all very complex for March. (Teddy)

#11. Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota (Recalcitrant Cobbler)
#12. Big Papi, DH, Boston (Le Dupont Torkies)

Heroes of 2006 round out the first round. I'm torn. I think both of these guys can contribute this year, but wonder if they're really going to live up to where they were taken, and whether they'll be worth having on their respective teams in 2 years. (El Angelo)

They'll have great overall numbers, but I'm not sure that either one is going to rank that highly among their positional peers. (Teddy)

#13. Kelly Johnson, 2B, Atlanta (Mission Accomplished)

I've been ridiculed for this pick, and perhaps rightly so. My entire defense is summed up in two points: (1) he's a mile better than every other available second baseman, and (2) he wasn't going to last until the third round. I'm just saying. (El Angelo)

For all the crap I've been giving Ang here, I actually don't mind the pick. 2B is shallow as hell (unless you share BP's enthusiasm about Ricky Weeks). I might have gone with another arm here and looked to cobble together a double play combo later on, but the pick looks worse than it is. (Teddy)

#14. Alex Rios, OF, Toronto (AIDS AIDS AIDS AIDS)

The boy's a good player and all, but this team's best pitcher is Gavin Floyd. Wouldn't a starter have been a better idea here? (El Angelo)

On my list, I have little red marks next to players who I think have been overvalued by the list-making authority. I have three red marks next to Rios. I am probably undervaluing him as a result, but he's mostly useful for SB and R, categories that this team shored up with the Reyes pick. Waiting for a Raul Ibanez-style run produced might have been the way to go. (Teddy)

#15. John Lackey, SP, Anaheim (The Loose Bowels)
#16. Victor Martinez, C, Cleveland (Recalcitrant Cobbler)
#17. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota (The Spam Avengers)

A broken pitcher, a flopping catcher, and a potentially broken catcher. I'm meh on the first two picks and actually dislike the last pick because Mauer's not going to be a catcher in 2011. When he's a right fielder, he'll be Paul O'Neill. (El Angelo)

I like all three picks more than my esteemed co-author. I think Mauer and VMart will each end up on the Brandon Inge path of catching just enough games each year to stay eligible at C, thus preserving their values. There are questions on each--can Mauer stay healthy, is VMart just cooked?--but C is another position where the bottom of the barrel can get pretty ugly.

Lackey is a nice bet to be keepable, and as such offers value here. And as we'll see, his lack of immediate availability will be somewhat mitigated by this team's later decision to draft every other available starter at once. (Teddy)

#18. Brett Myers, SP, Philly (Unenviable Position)

Don't love my own pick here, given Myers bizarre season last year, but I'm betting that his wife-pimping hand is still strong. (Teddy)

He's a mile better than a lot of other pitchers available, including 3 that are going to be taken in about 8 lines. (El Angelo)

#19. Jayson Werth, OF, Philadelphia (Wu Tang Financial)

In PECOTA they trust; its projected line for Werth? 85/22/69/15/.380, or, in other words, better than either Victorino or Crawford. (Teddy)

Given that 10% of his homers last year came against the Jays' bullpen and he hasn't been traded to the O's, I'm still not impressed. (El Angelo)

#20. Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago/NL (Aroids Anonymous)
#21. Derek Lowe, SP, Atlanta (The Loose Bowels)
#22. Justin Duchsherer, SP, Oakland (The Loose Bowels)

A party foul here, as a rhythm was established and then ignored. Successive picks of "Derrek" and and "Derek" should have been followed by a pick of someone named "Deek". We'll grant you that "Duke" is close, but we like to think that we hold ourselves to higher standards around here. (Teddy)

Lee, Lowe & Duke sounds like a Savannah law firm that does mass tort litigation. I suppose there's some upside to that. (El Angelo)

#23. Theodore Roosevelt Lilly, SP, Chicago/NL (The Loose Bowels)

Indeed. (Teddy)

We're just annoyed that TR was the only president who we could reference. Are there no players named Woodrow? Or Dubya? (El Angelo)

#24. Vlad Guerrero, OF, Anaheim (Le Dupont Torkies)

Possibly the only time in history that a second round pick has been used on a player who aged two years in one offseason. (Teddy)

And lost a position: I have to think that he'll be a DH this time next year. Still, I wish he were still an Expo patrolling the outfield with Yamil Benitez. (El Angelo)

Fantasy Spotlight: Seattle's 2009 Closer

The M’s have a ton of questions coming into this season, the most pressing of which is whether they’ll continue to spend more dollars per win than any other team in baseball. But that question is a little too big to take on here. So instead, we’ll content ourselves with Seattle’s closer situation, which is currently the least settled of any club. Given how scarce saves can be on the ground, anyone who can correctly predict Seattle's opening day closer.

New manager Don Wakamatsu said last week that the team is running a five-way competition for the closer slot, with Mark Lowe, Miguel Batista, Roy Corcoran, David Aardsma, and Tyler Walker all in the mix. Wakamtsu also told MLB Channel that he doesn’t plan to use a closer-by-committee approach, meaning somebody is going to be the notional closer when camp breaks.

With that many bodies in the mix, spring training results are likely to carry a lot more weight than they usually do (or really ever should). Let’s take a look at each guy’s performance last year, and so far this spring.

Mark Lowe

	G	IP	K	BB	H	HRA	GB%	ERA
2008	57	63.2	55	34	78	6	44.6%	5.37
'09 ST	5	4.2	1	4	11	0	N/A	9.64

So, this guy sucked last year. He had an acceptable K rate, but walked too many guys and gave up too many XBH. That led to a negative VORP and WXRL, which would be a devastating performance for a team to get out of its closer. There is no compelling statistical reason to give this guy a shot at the job.

There is, however, a bit of a scouting-based groundswell in his favor. Lowe has the power fastball/moving changeup combination that was worked for many other closers, meaning he “looks” the most like a closer of anyone here. He also had elbow surgery in 2007, which gives a reasonable basis for hope that his command will improve this year, his second season after the TJ.

Unfortunately for him, he has continued to suck thus far in ST. He’s managed to pitch less than one full inning per appearance, a bad sign given that the M’s aren’t exactly making matchup-based mid-inning pitching changes at this time of year. While some folks in Seattle might want to anoint Lowe as the closer, he is going to have to get somebody out at some point before that happens.

Miguel Batista

	G	IP	K	BB	H	HRA	GB%	ERA
2008	44	115	73	79	135	19	45.6%	6.26
'09 ST	5	7	3	3	5	0	N/A	3.86

So, this guy sucked last year. Batista was ineffective as a starter when he lost the strike zone, increasing his BB/9 by almost two full walks. That in turn caused him to take some stuff off of his pitches, which led to a 75% increase in his HR rate. And the numbers don’t even give much hope of a turnaround, given that Batista’s BABIP has remained steady through his years in Seattle. He now appears to be a flyball pitcher with limited command and the inability to get swings and misses.

Batista is known to be a smart, liberal-artsy kind of guy, one who has written prose books in English and poetry in Spanish. So it’s fitting that the slim argument in his favor is based on economics and history more than on mathematics. Seattle owes Batista about $9 million this year, and wants to get some value out of him without tying up a rotation spot. And Batista does have a limited history as a closer, having saved 31 games for Toronto in 2005, albeit with a mediocre ERA. If Wakamatsu wants to just go along and get along at first, Batista is where he’ll turn.

Roy Corcoran

	G	IP	K	BB	H	HRA	GB%	ERA
2008	50	72.2	39	36	65	1	69.5%	3.22
'09 ST	4	3.1	3	2	3	1	N/A	10.80

So, this guy . . . should have sucked last year, but somehow didn’t. Corcoran is a sinker/slider guy who lives and dies by the ground ball. An awful lot of those grounders got snarfed up last year, which gave Corcoran a pretty-looking ERA. That said, his K rate is extremely low for any reliever, let alone a closer, and his career K/BB is almost exactly 1/1. He’s been shelled this spring, already matching his HRA total from last year.

Also, I keep wanting to type his name as “Rory”, which is just not a closer name (though there’s a terrible joke in there somewhere about Wakamatsu and Rollie Fingers that I’m not going to get into.). Anyhow, the point is that Corcoran puts an awful lot of runners and balls in play for a prospective closer, and the new management is probably smart enough to realize that.

The arguments in his favor are mostly of the gritty/gutsy variety. Again, Wakamatsu and his staff seem to know their stuff, so they’ll probably be immune to Roy’s scruffy charms. The only other argument is that he keeps the ball in the park, and Seattle could have a better IF defense this year if Jose Lopez has decided not to be fat. Regardless, Corcoran would seem at most a plan b if none of the other fireballing types work out.

David Aardsma

	G	IP	K	BB	H	HRA	GB%	ERA
2008	47	48.2	45	39	49	4	44.0%	5.55
'09 ST	6	6	4	3	5	0	N/A	0.00

Do I have to say it? I don’t have to say it, right? OK.

Like Mark Lowe, Aardsma throws hard, has no particular idea where it’s going, and is susceptible to the long ball. Seattle acquired him from the Red Sox for a random lefty arm, and will now be the 5th different team to hope for him to shoot straight. The only real point going for him is that he hasn’t allowed a run yet this year. He’s still allowing baserunners, though, which leads you to think that all he’s done this year is manage to avoid allowing the knockout blow with runners on. That has value if he can keep it up. However, there’s not a lot to suggest he can do that.

Tyler Walker

	G	IP	K	BB	H	HRA	GB%	ERA
2008	65	53.1	49	21	47	7	47.7%	4.56
'09 ST	5	4.2	3	2	6	0	N/A	5.79

Walker is a certified closer lousy enough to have been ousted from the closer position in San Francisco and Tampa Bay over the past few years. He somehow managed to be overshadowed by Brian Wilson last year in SF, and spent the season as the Giants’ primary RH setup guy.

Still he’s the best man for the job based on K/9 and K/BB, though some of his success last year was due to a career-best BABIP number. Still, he’s just about the only guy here who has shown that he can strike out guys without walking everyone in sight. The only strike against him is probably that he is new to the team and the league, and has lost two closer jobs in the past three seasons. But he’s moving from one pitchers’ park to another, and has closed within living memory, meaning the team could probably pencil him in for a year’s worth of adequacy if they don’t feel like rolling the dice.

So Who Closes?

For M’s fans, the thing to watch here isn’t so much which guy gets the job—it's how the new staff makes the choice. They could go the “proven closer” route with Walker or Batista, the “gritty veteran” route with Corcoran, or the pure stuff route with Aardsma or Lowe. Or they could go strictly by the numbers, which shade towards Walker, though not by much.

For fantasy types, it says here that they’ll start out with Walker or Batista as a placeholder while they sift through the guys with better arms. But I’d be stunned if they guy who gets save #1 for Seattle ends up leading the team in saves at the end of the season.

The guy to watch? Former Nats closer Chad Cordero, who Seattle signed last week. Although he won't be ready until May or June, he's a good bet to amass more saves than whichever random guy is the nominal closer on opening day.

Anschluss Gowanus

EDIT 3/18--game assignment got switched to one people might actually read.
For those interested, I'll be live blogging the Xavier-Portland State Kansas-North Dakota State first-round NCAA matchup for Deadspin this Friday at 12:30 p.m., so anyone who plans to drink and watch the game within stumbling distance of a computer is heartily encouraged to check it out. Link to follow once the tech details get nailed down.

This is all a little ironic given that arguably the most popular thing we've ever written was a post mocking the entire concept of live blogs. But we here at the GRBG are nothing if not flexible. Anyway, it should be fun, given that all I know about Portland State is that I spent part of law school hooking up with one of their alumna, and I'm not sure how smoothly that tidbit can be worked into a live blog format.

LSU-Butler Live Blog

So, in advance of our live blog for Deadspin on Friday we decided to take a crack at live blogging Thursday's LSU-Butler game. If you like it, well, expect more of the same on Friday. If not, treat this as a dry run. Click the circle to begin.

The Worst Keeper of 2009

This year's award for the Worst Keeper of the Wankdorf League goes to none other than Travis Hafner, the (maybe) starting DH for AIDS AIDS AIDS AIDS. Travis beat out Max Scherzer and a handful of other write-in votes I received by email. Congrats to Travis! Let's remember that the squad with last year's winner finished in 5th place and focus on the positives.

The Value at the End of a Draft

There are a zillion maxims about fantasy drafts, especially in keeper leagues, such as "studs are needed early", "the middle rounds are when the drafts are won", "ignore the late rounds", "late rounds win leagues", etc. One thing that's definitely true, however, is that the end of the draft does matter. Here are the last 24 players taken in last year's draft:

• Chris Perez
• Jair Jurrjens
• Eric Chavez
• Conor Jackson
• Ervin Santana
• Josh Willingham
• Bartolo Colon
• Raul Ibanez
• Scott Rolen
• Aaron Heilman
• Coco Crisp
• Barry Bonds
• Jon Rauch
• Nick Adenhart
• Angel Villalona
• Andrew McCutchen
• Brian Fuentes
• Elijah Dukes
• Kevin Correia
• Rick Vanden Hurk
• Jacob McGee
• Edinson Volquez
• Richie Sexson

Bold-faced are the players kept into this season, including prospects. Now this isn't exactly a list of studs; the best players are probably Volquez and Dukes, though both have serious question marks, the former about Dusty Baker putting his arm in a sausage grinder, the latter about his ability to remember to take lithium. But let's compare this to the 4th round of last year's draft, which was hilariously bad:

1. Paul Konerko.....I'm not sure why I took him. This was during my spectacular run of bad picks, which consisted of Francouer, Konkero, Jarrod Salty, Vernon Wells, and Josh Fields. That would suck in a softball league.
2. Shaun Marcum.......Corey's token Blue Jay, who promptly blew out his arm.
3. Kosuke Fukudome..........Ugh.
4. Dustin McGowan..........A good idea at the time, until he too fell into the Blue Jay Pitching Vortex of Doom.
5. Rafael Furcal.........Played well last year when healthy. Sadly, that was for April and September only.
6. Kevin Gregg..........The worst closer in baseball; Florida couldn't dump him fast enough.
7. Shane Victorino........Shockingly effective, even more shockingly not kept by anyone. The first pick that actually was good in the short and long term.
8. Edgar Renteria..........Rent a Suck!
9. Chien Ming Wang............Dog.
10. Jim Thome...........Old.
11. James Loney...........Mark Grace minus the prickhood.
12. Jermaine Dye............Okay, he's a good player.

Conclusion? The proper maxim is either "pay attention late", or "we don't know a goddamn thing about baseball.

How to Bet the Derby Exacta Future Pool

Churchill Downs, to its credit is trying a new bet this week. For the last 10 years, CD has offered a future bet on the Derby this weekend, under which you can bet on any of 23 discreet contenders for the Derby or the "field" option. That bet is still open this year. Additionally, you will also be allowed to bet on the exacta for the Kentucky Derby, using the same 23 horses and the field, with the catch that you can't bet a "Field-Field" exacta; if Field horses run 1-2, they'll find the highest finishing horse in the race from the pool of 23 to determine who the next horse is.

There's a lot of questions regarding this bet, but let's take one small one: what do you do with the field? Pitch it, play it, or hedge with it? And in which slot? Let's look back to the last 10 years to see whether or not the field was in play for the 2nd future pool.

1999...Charismatic-Menifee. Charismatic was a field entry, so the field ran first here. Menifee, I think, was an individual entry, but even if he wasn't, 3rd place finisher Cat Thief definitely was.

2000....Fusaichi Pegasus-Aptitude. FuPeg was 12-1 in the second pool. Aptitude was not, so the field (at 5-1) ran second.

2001....Monarchos-Invisible Ink. Monarchos was 11-2 in the win pool, Invisible Ink was 22-1. Field did not come into play here.

2002....War Emblem-Proud Citizen. The 1-2 finishers were both in the field, we have to go to 3rd place finisher Perfect Drift for the next horse, who was 90-1 (!) in the Derby future pool.

2003....Funny Cide-Empire Maker. Both were in the pool, at 60-1 and 7-2, respectively. Yowks.

2004....Smarty Jones-Lion Heart. Smarty Jones was in the field (really?), while Lion Heart was not.

2005....Giacomo-Closing Argument. The winner was 27-1 in the pool, Closing Argument was part of the field.

2006....Barbaro-Bluegrass Cat. Both horses were relatively short prices in the future bet, the winner at 15-1, the place finisher at 11-1.

2007....Street Sense-Hard Spun. The winner was 8-1 in the second pool, Hard Spun was 20-1.

2008....Big Brown-Eight Belles. Neither is in Pool 2, but 3rd place finisher Denis of Cork is. Field was clearly a big part of this exacta.

So in 10 years, the field was part of the exacta 6 times, with it winning the race 4 times, placing 4 or 5 times, and being the entire exacta 2 or 3 times (sorry, I can't remember or find whether Menifee was in the field.) You're basically staring at the idea that the field will be part of the exacta 60% of the time, and in either slot roughly 40% of the time.

So is including the field on both sides of your exacta bets the way to go? It depends on how you evaluate this year's Derby crop. It's worth noting that the 4 years it was not part of the exacta were the years that the Derby crops were the strongest in the past 10 years--most would argue that the best classes of 3 year olds in the last decade were in 2001, 2006, 2007, and 2003 would get some supporters. How does this crop stack up? Pretty well so far; we've had a bunch of horses run triple digit Beyers that look legit (I Want Revenge, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse), and a bunch more knocking at the door with worlds of talent (Dunkirk, Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesian Fire, Imperial Council, to name a few). I think given that this is a strong class, and that you'd be taking somewhere near 4-1 on the field hitting the board, it's a good year to pitch the field and concentrate on the 23 horses currently in the pool.

This Derby Preview Goes To Eleven

We're 53 days from the Run for the Roses, and we've scantly talked about this year's crop, which is decidedly better than last year's group, which basically consisted of Big Brown and a bunch of hacks. We'll delve more deeply into this crop and try to determine the actual contenders come late April, but right now, who are the eleven horses to watch during the next round or two of prep races?

The Obvious and Boring Contenders

1. Old Fashioned. A finalist for the Eclipse Award for champion 2 year old last year, he won his only start this year in the Southwest Stakes, and is set to run the Rebel-Arkansas Derby route to Kentucky. He's undefeated and has done absolutely nothing wrong yet to date, yet there's a nagging feeling that this guy isn't going to want 10 furlongs and has too much pent up speed to really be a factor late. He's quite reminiscent of Lion Heart, the 2004 Derby runner up. This isn't a bad thing, mind you, it just means he's not the winner.

2. Pioneer of the Nile. Synthetic champ that's got a couple of nice wins...in California over an artificial surface. His breeding indicates he should like dirt, his performances and speed figures though, while okay, are nothing special.

3. Friesian Fire. Like Old Fashioned, he's trained by Larry Jones, who's run 2nd in consecutive Derbies with Hard Spun and Eight Belles. He's also done nothing wrong, but nobody really likes him; more people are talking about the horses that finished behind him in the Risen Star than him, the winner.

4. The Pamplemousse. Arguably the best named horse on this list, he's modestly bred, but has nice tactical speed and looked good winning the Sham in his last. The problem with him, besides the breeding and the synthetics question, is that he's yet to really run against or beat a good horse, but that should be cured in his next start, the Santa Anita Derby.

The Potential Stars

5. Dunkirk. Insanely talented. He's 2-for-2 with a win at 9 furlongs, is impeccably bred, has top connections and a ton of speed. The catch? He didn't run as a two year old, and nobody since Apollo some 130 years ago has won the Derby without running as a 2yo. Derby traditions have been falling left and right the last few years, but this one's still a tough one to beat.

6. Quality Road. The second best freak we've seen this year at Gulfstream after Dunkirk, he was sensational in winning the Fountain of Youth. But is he really a router? His connections didn't think so and didn't nominate him to the Triple Crown. Let's see how he fares when he tackles two turns.

7. I Want Revenge. Romped in the Gotham after running well out West. He should be near the top of everyone's list.

The Sleepers Everyone's Talking About

8. Imperial Council. Ran second to I Want Revenge in the Gotham and got a rather curious ride from the excreable Rajiv Maragh in that race. Definitely look for an improvement when he gets back Edgar Prado in the Wood in 4 weeks.

9. Giant Oak. Everyone's sleepr horse from the Risen Star, he's better bred and more likely to improve than Friesian Fire.

10. Papa Clem. He ran second to The Pamplemousse in his last over a month ago and beat I Want Revenge in that race. Both have since come back to win. Has to bode well for him, right?

11. Desert Party. The sheikhs of Dubai made a huge show out of buying last year's winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile (Midshipman) and the best East Coast 2yo (Vineyard Haven). So far this year, Midshipman is hurt and Vineyard Haven lookd awful in his race. By contrast, this high priced but less publicized purchase has done nothing wrong since going to the Middle East. It'll still be tough to win the Derby shipping 7000 miles to Louisville, but this guy is talented.

For now, we're leaning towards Imperial Council and Quality Road as our preferred horses, with perpetual bridesmaid Beethoven and potential late bloomer Flying Pegasus on our radar as well. But this looks like a pretty decent year for 3 year olds, and it's kind of exciting.

Worst Keeper of 2009

It's time again for the annual award of Worst Keeper of the Year in the Wankdorf league. Previous honorees have included Chris Ianetta (2007) and Rickie Weeks (2008). This year, we have half a dozen nominees, and let's put 'em up for a vote.

• Max Scherzer, RP, Arizona (Mission Accomplished). A talented young pitcher with arm trouble and no defined role in the Arizona bullpen. Heck, he's not even next on the list of potential closers, as the stout Jon Rauch is ahead of him.

• Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland (AIDS AIDS AIDS AIDS). Here's his stat line from last year: .197/.305/.323, 5 HR, 24 RBI, 21 Runs. And he doesn't have a position besides DH.
  

• Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta (AIDS squared squared). A fine young pitching prospect, but he's probably the worst starter kept.

• Scott Baker, SP, Minnesota (Le Dupont Torkies). He's not far behind Jurrjens, if at all.

• Chipper Jones, Dickwad, Atlanta (The Loose Bowels). Has to be on this list out of general principle.

• Chris Davis, 1B, Texas (Evil League of Evil). Taking his 170 ABs at face value may be a bit of a stretch.

The polls are open!

The Collapse of Ivy League Basketball

We're taking a brief diversion from baseball coverage to discuss a subject near and dear to the editors of this blog: college basketball, and specifically, Ivy League hoops. Because you may finally be able to relegate the Ivy to the bottom of the college hoops phylum.

College basketball conferences can be divided in to 5 fairly predictable and exact strata:

1. The BCS Conferences. The Big East, ACC, Big 12, SEC, Big 10 and Pac-10. The elite of the sport, those that dominate the NCAA tournament.

2. The Not Quite Majors. Conferences that are top-heavy with 1-3 schools that can compete at the national level at any time but lack real depth. This group is pretty small, and basically is made up of Conference USA, the Atlantic 10, the Mountain West, and if we're generous, the WAC. These conferences can send schools to the Final Four and compete for national championships, just not every year.

3. The Mid Majors. Conferences that are very competitive and can compete with the big boys on any given night, but rarely crack the top 10 in rankings or higher than a 4 seed in the Tourney. The names are familiar: the Missouri Valley, the WCC, the Horizon, the Big West, and if we're in a good mood, the Colonial.

4. The Frisky Conferences. Often dominated by 1-2 teams, these conferences will be good for 2-3 first round upsets in the Tourney, a biannual Sweet Sixteen darling, and your occasional Davidson Run. The conference champs usually get 12-14 seeds and at a minimum will give the higher seed a headache for 30 minutes in the opening round. Generally speaking, if you've heard of a school because of an NCAA appearance/upset but know nothing about them (Valparaiso, Winthrop, Weber State, College of Charleston), they belong here.

5. The Doormats. Conferences that produce perennial 15 and 16 seeds and not only rarely win 1st round games, they're rarely competitive in 1st round games. We see the same names here every year: the SWAC, Patriot League, American East, MEAC and Northeast Conference. For every wild Hampton upset, there are a dozen drubbings of Monmouth.

Over the last 15 years the Ivy League has been treated by the Selection Committee as a Category 4 conference, and been accorded almost uniform respect by getting a 11-13 seed most years. This was backed up by good play in the 90s: Matt Maloney (right) and Jerome Allen led 11-seeded Penn to a first round upset of Penn in 1994, Princeton upset defending champ UCLA in '96 (by boring America to death 43-41) and followed that up with a superb run in '98 that culminated in a 5 seed and a second round loss to Michigan State.

Unfortunately, Princeton's first round win over UNLV that year was the last win by an Ivy in March Madness. Let us trace the inexorable decline:

1999: 11-seeded Penn falls 75-61 to Florida. This was actually a pretty good Gator team that fell to the Gonzaga Buzzsaw in the next round and then went to the Final game the next year.

2000: 13-seeded Penn drops a 68-58 contest to a not particularly inspired Illinois team.

2001: A not-any-good Princeton team gets a 15 seed and is trounced by UNC, a team coached by Matt Doherty that then can't beat Penn State. Remember, this is basketball, not football.

2002: A fair Penn team is rewarded with an 11 seed and is manhandled by California to the tune of 63-50. As I recall, this game was never close.

2003: Penn once again returns as an 11 seed and loses by 12 to Oklahoma State. OSU is the 4th straight team to beat an Ivy League opponent in Round 1 and lose in the second round.

2004: Princeton gets a 14 seed, and loses to Texas by 17. UT at least wins another game before losing to Xavier.

2005: In an absolutely horrid matchup, Penn gets a 13 seed and draws BC, who wallops them by 20. Irish guys all over the Eastern seaboard were rather confused about who to root for.

2006: In by far the best appearance that wasn't a win, Penn gets a 15 seed and draw Kevin Durant-led Texas, playing in Dallas...and only lose by 8. The outcome was never in doubt, but Texas could not put this team away to save its life.

2007: Penn gets a 14-seed and everyone's sleeper team as an opponent, Texas A&M. They lose by 16 in a horrible mismatch.

2008: Cornell gets the first non-Princeton/Penn bid since the Reagan administration and draws Stanford and the Lopez twins, who crush them and their soul by 24. This game was close for about 12 minutes, until the Stanford coach realized that Cornell didn't have a single player over 6'5".

Yes, you can make excuses for this run of losses. Teams like Texas are too big and athletic for Penn to stand a chance. The lack of a postseason tournament has kept the seeds artificially high because you never get an 11-17 Brown qualifying thanks to a hit week in March. They've just gotten unlucky. But the bottom line is we're staring at a 11-year gap in losses, which will probably continue this year when Cornell gets pummeled in the first round by Oklahoma or Missouri.

So where are the Ivies now? Well, Penn has fallen off a cliff since Fran Dunphy left for Temple and can't beat Columbia. (Note: this is me blatantly trying to bait my co-author.) Princeton has been fair in conference, but is the definition of a paper tiger and really have been "good" since Bill Carmody left for Northwestern, a.k.a., the Greatest Rebuilding Project Ever. Cornell has stepped into the void somewhat. The problem is they're really not any good.

Which leads us to the ultimate conclusion: at this point, the Ivies have fallen from a Frisky Competitor to a Doormat. Without superbly coached teams that Penn and Princeton had for years that could win if they shot over 50% and could control the tempo, the league has no outstanding coaches, talent or abilities. They're not competitive against BCS conferences. Hell, they're not even fun to watch. As a result, the Ivies should be relegated to permanent 15/16 seed status and should be in the rotation for the play-in game until they dig up a new Kit Muller or Matt Maloney or a new coaching phenom emerges. Sorry guys, but the truth hurts.

Transactions Analysis: February Doldrums Edition

A new season is on the horizon, with pitchers and catchers doing their respective things in Florida and Arizona, and most of us up north trying to thaw out. This time of the year is usually the silly season for fantasy sports. However, that hasn't stopped a slew of pre-season trades this year with everyone scrambling to get their rosters in check. So while our witticisms aren't in mid-season form yet, that's not going to stop us from getting back on the horse and starting up TAs anew. Ready to begin Season 5, Teddy? (El Angelo)

Is this really the 5th year for the TAs?!? Anniversary specials are in order. Maybe an alternate-world edition in which we analyze transactions that would have been made by Val, Bartolacci, M**e, and our other departed colleagues, had they not shuffled off this mortal coil? Or maybe just more Ryan Dempster jokes. Yeah, that seems easier. (Teddy)

AIDS AIDS AIDS AIDS

• Traded their 6th round pick to Warren Guts for Chris Young, OF, Arizona, and their 10th round pick.
• Traded their 3rd round pick to Le Dupont Torkies for Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Boston.
  

First off, let's note that this appears to be a watershed year for inappropriate team names. In addition to the usual cute and snarky team names (Aroids Anonymous, Mission Accomplished, Evil League of Evil), we have a team named after our President's perineum, another that indicates that either our commissioner or his kid needs more fiber in their diet, and a squad simply named after a deadly disease.

above: Not the Pedro you'd expect to see on this blog.

What makes this one even more noteworthy is that after 7 years of refusing to hit the shift key, Ironhead has gotten his team name in all capital letters. Make of this what you will, but my read is that it portends for an even more tasteless season than usual, and/or an attempt by the other league owners to get this blog banned for language that would make Kevin Smith and Deadwood blush. Like it.

With regard to the actual transactions, I clearly fall in the category of glass houses and stones, but even I can say that once you got past a not-bad start to this keeper list (Gonzalez, Pedroia, Nathan, Hafner), the bottom fell out pretty quick, to the point where an argument could have been made to keep Andy Sonnenstine. A third rounder isn't small potatoes in terms of picks (#26 overall), but it adds a top-shelf closer, and gives them a helluva 1-2 punch with Joe Nathan in the bullpen, which leaves them one good pick from dominating saves and having a leg up on rate stats. Young is an interesting bounce-back candidate at a pretty low price, and while I'm clearly bearish on him cracking .310 on the OBP scale, you really can't quibble too much when it doesn't cost much. Some solid moves to shore up the keeper list, but I think this squad would be well-served to explore adding another +1 or +2 guy. Will he really miss not holding on to John Maine and Welcome to The Fukudome? (El Angelo)

I don't love the Young pickup--I think the draft will be deep enough that AAAA could get an equivalent player with the pick they gave up. I mind the Papelbon pickup less. For whatever reason, this league tends to depart from fantasy orthodoxy by chasing saves early in the draft. This lets AAAA skip that fight, and use his picks on non-closers who drop. Of course, that strategy might be a little tough to execute with only 4 picks in the first 6 rounds. (Teddy)

Obama's Grundle

• Traded their 4th round pick to Evil League of Evil for Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia.
  
• Traded their 3rd and 7th round picks to Le Dupont Torkies for Alex Rodriguez, 'Roid User, New York (AL) and Chad Qualls, RP, Arizona,
• Traded their 2nd and 8th round picks to The Loose Bowels for Carlos Beltran, OF, New York (NL) and their 6th and 7th round picks.
  

That's three trades for three guys that will take up nine, NINE keeper slots next year. In fairness, the President Scrotumbergs have done so by acquiring 3 of the top 20 position players in fantasy baseball, and will be building off an insanely strong core plus a not-horrible pitching trio of Myers-Lidge-Qualls. Still given that they will be making their second pick at about the same time Andy's cracking open his 4th beer, and may be drafting Takeo Spikes in the final rounds, query whether they're relying too much on the bottom of the draft to fill in the details. Still, it's awesome to see a new strategy invoked. (El Angelo)

The audacity of chode is on full display here. The mere fact that these kind of trades are in play opens up a bunch of new strategic options, which is fantastic. The salary cap has finally kicked in for real, meaning you can wheel out a "go for it now" strategy even if you start the season off in the hole. These trades are the fantasy equivalent of Dubya casually nuking Tehran on his way out the door: the harvest might be bitter, but the act is good for a bracing adrenaline rush.

at right: Atlas winces.

The only quibble I have is that although the three players obtained are all fantastic, they also all play positions where the fantasy replacement level is pretty high at the moment. Make the same trades for up-the-middle guys of a similar standing and we'd be on to something. Still, style points abound. (Teddy)

Mission Accomplished

• Traded their 4th and 6th round picks to Evil League of Evil for Brian McCann, C, Atlanta and Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco.
• Traded Chris Young, OF, Arizona and their 10th round pick to AIDS^4 for their 6th round pick.

The 6th rounders more or less offset each other, so it's basically a question of whether dealing the 37th pick in the draft for McCann and Cain was worth it. I say yes. What say ye, wise Portagee? (El Angelo)

Steal. (Teddy)

The Loose Bowels

• Traded Carlos Beltran, OF, New York (NL) and their 6th and 7th round picks to Obama's Grundle for their 2nd and 8th round picks.

The bad news for Andy is that he has no first round pick this year. The good news now is that he has FOUR second round picks, including three in a row near the end of the round. It'd be even more surprising if he used all of those picks; I smell a trade-up coming on draft day. (Note: never again will I use the word "smell" in this team's TA.) (El Angelo)

While you never know until the keeper lists come out, the pool of jump-out-of-your-chair studs has never gone more than about 8 deep in these drafts. Having four second rounders might just give The Eliminations a chance to overdraft for 3 picks in a row. (Teddy)

Evil League of Evil

• Traded Brian McCann, C, Atlanta and Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco to Warren Guts for their 4th and 6th round picks
• Traded Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia to Obama's Grundle for their 4th round pick.
  

The conventional look would be to examine whether these draft picks are fair compensation for these playesr, but I want to take a different look and instead ask what trading these players means in terms of Dr. Evil's keeper list. The immediate upshot is that it lets them hold on to David Wright for another year at +3, which is clearly not a bad thing. But it also lets them keep the intriguing quintet of Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin and Chris Davis, who could combine for anywhere from 20-100 home runs and about 750 strikeouts. Howard actually won't be missed with these three guys on the team, it's more a question of whether taking a stab on Davis' upside plus someone like Brian Wilson is better than having the best catcher in baseball.

Also, writing "Traded X to Obama's Grundle" will be fantastic to type all year, at least until the Secret Service arrest me. (El Angelo)

Completely agree on the Howard trade--power shouldn't be an issue for this team, and Howard has a surprisingly middling OBP that caps his overall value. Good high sell.

I assume that the McCann gamble is premised on the idea that there are more solid fantasy C options now than there have been for 3-4 years, with young guys like Chris Ianettam, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Mike Napoli, and Francesco Rinaldi establishing themselves last year, and Matt Wieters and Jeff Clement on the way.

at left: Ciao, Francesco Rinaldi!

Still, while I probably focus too much on positional issues, I probably would have balked at giving away a top 3 catcher for a middle round pick. Of course, we need to make an allowance for the fact that this trade came early in the offseason, before values got established. Also, the Unfortunate Banners should probably finish below 4th one year before I start giving them advice. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Traded Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York (AL) and Chad Qualls, RP, Arizona to Obama's Grundle for their 3rd and 7th round picks.
• Traded Jon Papelbon, RP, Boston to AIDS^4 for their 3rd round pick.
  

Pour some out for the end to an era: Tucker's first pick ever in the league is on a new squad. There's a lot to like in adding a pair of 3rd round picks and making room for Joe Mauer and some young pitchers. But it leaves the team with a lot of questions, not the least of which is what the f**k to do with Manny Ramirez when he still isn't on a team, and what to expect from injury bouncebacks in Chad Billingsley and Chase Utley. But credit to the defending champ: it was going to be tough to defend the title and rebuild, and they're taking an interesting tact at it. (El Angelo)

The key guy here is Utley--if he gets back for close to a full season at full health, he'll lap the field at 2B again, and cushion the offensive loss of ARod. If not, the falloff to a backup 2B will hurt, especially because this GM has shown a preference for a thin offensive bench that allows him more roster space to mix and match pitching matchups. But with essentially the whole team hitting costly FA status at the same time, there wasn't much else he could have done. (Teddy)