Kentucky Derby Preview Part IV: The Contenders

Having dispensed with horses that were entered for kicks, shipped from Dubai, and appear to have no interest in doing anything productive on dirt, it's time for a look at the top tier of horses in this year's Derby. Let's kick things off with three horses that have done well in prep races and will get some support on Saturday, but fail to exude the qualities, speed, or talent that we'd like to see in a Derby winner.

Logical Yet Unexciting

8. Musket Man. The owner of the best winning percentage in the race (5 wins in 6 starts), he's had a nice year winning two stakes races....the Tampa Bay and Illinois Derbies. The only other horses from those two races in the Derby are no-hopers Join in the Dance and Nowhere to Hide and General Quarters, whom he beat handily on dirt and we quickly dismissed yesterday. And while winning the Illinois Derby doesn't mean you're necessarily a second-tier horse, this guy's slow speed figures suggest that he is, to say nothing of being bred by Yonaguska, who couldn't run beyond 6 furlongs.

7. Friesan Fire. The trainer of '07 and '08 runner-ups Hard Spun and Eight Belles is back with this colt, who swept the Louisiana prep races, the last being in a romp in the slop in the Louisiana Derby. Curiously, Larry Jones chose put him in mothballs for 7 weeks, preferring to train him up to the race than give him a normal final prep and get him a 1 1/8 mile prep. Mistake? Probably. Circular Quay tried this in 2006 and failed miserably. Read the Footnotes also tried this in 2004 (with the Florida Derby, when it was earlier in the schedule) and also flopped. The lack of a recent race, not to mention a race at 9 furlongs, is damning in a tough field, and makes you want to look elsewhere.

6. Papa Clem. The indications are that he enjoyed the switch from synthetics to dirt, what with a win in the Arkansas Derby and a nice jump in his GSF. Still, as we noted yesterday with Summer Bird, let's take that Arkansas Derby figure with a grain of salt. It's hard to believe that Summer Bird improved 20+ points. If you downgrade Papa Clem's last race by 4-8 ticks, suddenly, he's not that interesting. Also, his workouts have been panned across the board, with the exception of Steve Haskin, who could find optimism in a three legged zebra competing in the Derby. We're siding against as a result, but note that he may rate a second look as a play in exotics if he's 20-1 or so on the board.

The Potential Monster

5. Dunkirk. Full disclosure: this horse could win by 10 lengths on Saturday, and we wouldn't be surprised. He's nicely bred, runs majestically, is fast and talented, comes from stellar connections, and is very reminiscent of Big Brown. The difference is that unlike last year's duel-classic winner, he's caught a fairly tough crop to compete with, as there are a lot of nice horses that aren't far behind him or are already ahead of him. The other problem is the absence of the start as a two year old, which has been the kiss of death since 1882. Why is a start as a juvenile important? Let's turn to noted plagarist and racing's resident curmudgeon, Andy Beyer, who asked Carl Nafzger the same question when Curlin tried to pull this off in 2007:

Why should a horse's performance on the first Saturday in May be affected by what he did a year earlier? I once put this question to Carl Nafzger (who trains Curlin's main rival, Street Sense), and he replied: "When a horse runs even one race as a 2-year-old, he had to get fit to get there, and he gets a lot of experience." Behind a single inconsequential-looking race in the past performances, there are months of training that are a crucial part of the animal's overall preparation.

Reasoning that's tough to argue with, especially from a horseman like Nafzger. A Curlin-esque finish of him running a very good 3rd but just not beating more seasoned horses is very possible. But to win? We like someone else.

Longshots to Use in Exotics

4. Hold Me Back. To prove that we're not 100% anti-synthetics, we give you Hold Me Back, who has a shot to close and hit the board at a price. Yes, his one effort on dirt was abysmal, but he's had two useful starts this year (he closed like a shot in the Blue Grass, albeit on polytrack), is bred to run okay on the dirt, and his trainer, Bill Mott, probably would be pitching a fit about running him here if he didn't think he belonged. And despite the fact that he's somehow 15-1 on the morning line (huh?), we think he'll be a longer price on Derby day.

3. Chocolate Candy. The other synthetic horse we like, even though our position to like him seems a bit contrary to hating Pioneerof the Nile. The difference? Price. This guy was gaining on POTN late in the Santa Anita Derby and should be 2-3 times the price. As a Candy Ride horse, he should like the distance and surface, and it wouldn't shock us to see him improve a lot, much like the other Cal-to-East shippers. May even be worth a saver play as a win bet. By contrast to Hold Me Back, though, we think this is going to be the "wise-guy" horse that everyone's all over, and that he'll get more play than General Quarters and Papa Clem, despite them winning major prep races.

2. West Side Bernie. Shades of Funny Cide in 2003 here. A pretty good campaign as a 2 year old, followed up by three losses this year, all of which are actually better than they appear. His first race, the Holy Bull, was a sneaky good race, where he was parked 6 wide into the first turn and lost any chance. His next race was a clear "I don't love polytrack" effort, and pretty meaningless. His last race, 2nd in the Wood, was actually pretty good, and was overlooked by everyone because of the (justified) hoopla surrounding winner's looping victory. In the Wood he ran a career best 103 GSF, was less than 2 lengths off the leader, and showed decent acceleration through the turn/stretch before being passed by I Want Revenge. Now he's getting no press and after a strong workout (which was necessary, given he had colic issues that cost him a week), he might be in shape to run a huge race at 30-1 or so.

The Pick

1. I Want Revenge. Yeah, yeah, yeah, let's hear it for the ballsy guys picking the probable favorite. Still, it's tough to argue against this guy. Here are the main arguments against him:

• His breeding doesn't translate to 10 furlongs. Really? It's better for distance than Dunkirk and some other top competitors. Incorrect.
• He's trained by Jeff Mullins, who once called horseplayers idiots, and has been suspended for cheating. That's true. But given we just survived Dick Dutrow last year; the circus around Mullins and his propensity to use illegal substances has no bearing on this horse's ability to win.
• He left California to face easier horses. A preposterous theory that Joe Drape has been spewing. (The same man who had Mafaaz atop his Derby list for weeks.) There's zero indication that Pioneerof the Nile is any better than West Side Bernie, Mr. Fantasy (who just won the Withers) or Imperial Council. More likely, this horse just didn't like synthetic surfaces.
• The name stinks. Lil E. Tee was better?
• Joe Talamo is too young and will screw him in a big spot. So long as the jockey doesn't send him right to the lead, he'll be fine. I think his cool handling of this horse in the Wood should have dispelled all questions about Talamo's ability.

Bottom line is he's proven to be the best horse on dirt this year, and but for a bad trip in his last race, would have won both dirt starts by 5+ lengths. Barring huge steps forward from a few others discussed here, we're looking at the Derby winner right here folks.

Betting the race

If you're looking to bet $10 or less, look to win wagers; I Want Revenge should be at least 3-1, and there's nothing wrong with tripling your dough if you're right. If you're looking to do something a bit more interesting, we suggest exactas; our longshot selections should all be at least 15-1, and with IWR or Dunkirk, should produce a mutuel over $100. And to make the picks official:

1. I Want Revenge
2. West Side Bernie
3. Dunkirk
4. Chocolate Candy

Good luck and enjoy the race!!

(Ed. Note: 5/2/09, 11:12 am: I Want Revenge has been scratched with an ankle filling, making this two straight races our pick has been scratched the morning of. Boo. Let's rejigger the picks slightly: 1. Chocolate Candy, 2. Dunkirk, 3. West Side Bernie, 4. Friesan Fire. Without the two best 3 year olds in the race (Quality Road being the other), this becomes an interesting handicapping exercise, but far from the definitive test of the class.)

Kentucky Derby Preview Part III: The Lower Tier

The post positions have been drawn, the jockeys assigned to their horses, and almost all of the final workouts have been completed. Yes kids, it's time to start scrutinizing this year's field for the Run for the Roses. We're doing our annual 2-day countdown, starting with the horses we think will be well out of it, and ending with our picks.

When reviewing our selections, bear in mind a couple of admitted biases. First, we're East Coasters, and as such, see more races with horses that run in this time zone. Second, we pay attention to Gowanus Speed Figures (GSF's), and use them a lot, but aren't strict adherents to them. Third and probably most importantly, we care about a horse's price on the big day. We'll prefer a horse that's 20-1 with a 5% chance over a 4-1 horse with a 10% chance any day, because value is key in betting the horses.

As good as the top tier looks this year, the bottom group of horses is absolutely horrible, as some of these guys wouldn't get a lot of action in some allowance races. Of course, that doesn't mean they don't deserve to be examined, scrutinized and occasionally humiliated. Let's count these guys down from worst to first, while trying to say something constructive about those that should be running at Aqueduct.

Why Are You Here?

20. Mine That Bird. Finished dead last in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year, he comes into this race having finished out of the money in the Sunland Derby. We admit: we follow racing pretty closely, and had no idea where the hell the Sunland Derby is run. (Answer: right outside El Paso, Texas.) What's actually amazing is that this horse has never run a remotely fast race and still has earned over $370,000. Picking your spots is key in racing. Sadly, if he couldn't finish in the money in the Sunland Derby, there's pretty much no way he could be considered competitive in the Kentucky Derby.

19. Nowhere to Hide. The definition of a last minute entry, Nick Zito ran to the entry box to get him in once longshot Win Willy was declared. His breeding suggests he'd like the distance if he had a lick of speed or talent, which he doesn't.

18. Atomic Rain. One of two horses entered by Kelly Breen in this race, who we only learned a couple of weeks ago was male. Who knew? He finished a nautical mile behind General Quarters and Musket Man in the Sammy Davis, and was never really in contention in the Wood. He belongs in the Ohio Derby.

17. Join the Dance. Todd Pletcher's third-stringer ran a career best two races back in the Tampa Bay Derby where he set a dawdling pace and yielded late at odds of 35-1. He'll be a similar price on Saturday, and unlike several other horses here, you will hear his name called because he's a confirmed front runner. But there's no sign whatsoever that he belongs here, outside of to ensure a pace for stablemate Dunkirk. Good bet for your Last Place Pool, though.

16. Summer Bird. Trained by the immortal Tim Ice (we've never heard of him) and ridden by Chris Rosier (we've never heard of him/her either), the best thing you can say about him is that he has a lot of upside, having made only three starts. The fact that his clunk-up 3rd in the Arkansas Derby represented a 21-point GSF jump says more about the validity of the figure than it does his chances. He's also the fourth straight horse on this countdown running in the Derby despite having only a maiden win. Call this the Giacomo Effect.

15. Flying Private. D. Wayne Lukas generally runs two types of horses in Triple Crown races: talented horses with flashy pedigrees, good speed and a big shot (too many to name), or wildly overmatched longshots that run up the track. Since Lukas stopped getting good horses about 6 years ago, we leave it to you to figure out where this guy belongs.

14. Mr. Hot Stuff. The first of three horses entered by WinStar farms in the Derby, he's also the one with the least chance to win, as he's only been in the exacta once. Given that the other two WinStar horses are loitering just outside the Pigs-Can-Fly area of contention, that's saying something. There's a minor chance he could clunk up for the superfecta, but even that's a stretch.

This is a Long Drive For Someone with Nothing to Think About

13. Desert Party. One of two horses sent over from Dubai to run in the Derby, he's the more expensive and more highly touted of the pair, despite losing his last race at 1-5 odds with no excuse. He's well-bred and all, but has yet to beat a horse of consequence or run particularly fast. And now he's got a 5000 mile commute to contend with, and may actually get some action on the toteboard on Saturday. No pressure.

12. Regal Ransom. Rates slightly higher than his stablemate because he has tactical speed in what appears to be a Derby without a ton of pace. But unless there's an epic rainstorm on Saturday, it's tough to see him wiring the entire field. What's even more amazing is that Godolphin spent roughly $40 million on horseflesh to try to win this race, and this guy's their best shot. Ouch.

Synthetic Giants

11. Advice. This guy also ran in the Sunland Derby, which out of nowhere, has become a viable prep for the Kentucky Derby. By contrast, only one horse is running in the Derby that ran in the Florida Derby. What the hell is going on here? How did a glorified allowance race near Mexico suddenly start producing Derby starters?

Anyway, as to Advice's chances, he followed up a horrible run in the Sunland Derby with a fast-closing win in the Lexington, which has produced horses that have run well in the Derby (Charismatic, Proud Citizen), and horses that have bombed horribly in the Derby (Coin Silver, Keats). Given that his flop in the Sunland Derby was his only dirt start, his father and mother's father were both crackerjack sprinters, and he's not any fast, we're going to call him a polytrack beast and move on to more pressing issues.

10. General Quarters. Won the Grade 1 Blue Grass in his last start, and is definitely going to be the center of NBC's soft focus feature on Saturday: he's his owner's/trainer's only horse, his owner is 75 years old, he was claimed for a song, blah blah blah. To the point, he not only clearly benefited from a shift from dirt to Polytrack in his last, his workouts at Churchill have been abysmal so far. We've said it before: ignore the good comments, highlight the bad comments from Derby workouts. When you see negativity, run for the hills.

9. Pioneerof the Nile. Winner of 4 straight stakes races, including a pair of Grade 1's, he'll have a lot of supporters on Saturday. We're against. Here's why:

1. All of his success has been on synthetics. While he may have the talent and breeding to run well on dirt, it's telling that his first trainer, excellent horseman Bill Mott, saw him as a turf/synthetics horse.
2. He isn't that fast. Yes, GSF's on synthetics are a little goofy, but this horse is currently 6-10 lengths too slow.
3. His pedigree doesn't suggest he's going to love 10 furlongs. Yeah, Empire Maker's as stout as you'll get on top, but his mom, Star of Goshen, was a sprinter, and his half brother Forefathers is a miler tops.
4. Lastly, he's going to be around 6-1. With all of this against him, why take such a short price?

Coming up tomorrow: our top eight, with our selections and betting advice.

Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: Do the Rules Still Apply?

As the horse racing media has been reporting over and over again for the past few years, the Kentucky Derby's traditional rules no longer apply. Until 2002, all of the traditional rules remained inviolate. You had to start as a two year old, run 3+ times as a 3yo, run in a traditional prep that was 2-4 weeks before the Derby, have five or more starts in your career, be bred to run a mile and a quarter, and of course, get lucky. Since then, the meme goes, many of these rules have fallen, as horses that would be automatic tosses in years past have won the Kentucky Derby. Thus, ignore the rules altogether and just find the fastest and most talented horse, like you would for any other race.

But has have the rules actually been thrown out the window since Monarchos romped home in 2001? Let's look at the winners of the last seven Derbies and what "rules" they have broken. Let's also bear in mind while doing this exercise that the rules exist for a reason--namely, so a horse can be prepared for the rigors of running 10 furlongs in May in front of 150,000 people against 12-19 other horses. As we'll see below, "rules" that have no bearing on a horse's ability or fitness should be ignored as silly and irrelevant.

2002: War Emblem. After upsetting the Illinois Derby at a square price, War Emblem came into the Kentucky Derby with a high Gowanus Speed Figure and went gate to wire at 20-1. The factor this horse was missing was him running in a traditional prep race, as the Illinois Derby had never produced a Derby winner. However, prior to 2001, the race wasn't a Derby prep, as it was run after the Kentucky Derby. War Emblem breaking the hammerlock held by the Wood-Blue Grass-Santa Anita-Arkansas quartet was simply a function of the timing of the race.

2003: Funny Cide. This guy was the first New York bred to win the Derby, which was small potatoes (and utterly meaningless, at any rate) next to the fact that he was the first gelding to win the Derby in 76 years. Significant? Absolutely not. First of all, the sample size was a ridiculously small 0-for-27 over that time period. Second, what difference does it make if a horse has his boys or not? Where's the cause/effect relation?

2004: Smarty Jones. Funny Cide was sired by a miler, but Smarty Jones was sired by an outright sprinter, breaking the tradition of some actual distance breeding being a necessity to take home the roses. It's tough to say that this broke a "rule"; more than anything else his victory evidenced that speed was at least as important as stamina when examining a pedigree.

2005: Giacomo. The gray Californian makes the Kentucky Derby the second win of his career, being one of very few horses to win the Derby not only off a poor prep but also one with no stakes victories. Heck, his only winning race before the Derby was his maiden race. We'd say this was a rule shatterer...except that Giacomo was 50-1 on Derby day. Flukes happen all the time, and this was clearly one--no examples are to be drawn here.

2006: Barbaro. Barbaro became the first horse to win the Derby in over 60 years despite having not run in 4 weeks prior to the Derby. But was this really a big deal? The Florida Derby shifted the timing of its race the year before; prior to 2005, it was a March race that trainers used as a penultimate Derby prep. In 2005, they changed their schedule to put the Florida Derby 5 weeks before the Kentucky Derby, now making it (in all likelihood) the horse's final prep race. Horses before Barbaro that tried to win the Derby that hadn't run in 28+ days were coming into the Derby having skipped one of the final prep races either due to injury or moronic planning (much like Friesian Fire is doing this year). The nouveau Florida Derby is neither of those. The "five-week" phenomenon was a red herring, the question really was whether or not the horse partook in the final round of Derby preps, which had now expanded to include the Florida Derby. Barbaro did, and thus really broke no traditional rules.

2007: Street Sense. The winner of the 2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile breaks three rules. He was the first BC Juvy winner to take the Derby, which is silly to call a rule, because it not only had the small sample size problem, but also because precocity as a 2yo does not often translate into a good 3yo, especially given the emphasis in modern breeding towards speed. Second, he was the first 2yo champ in decades to win the Derby, but the advent of the BC Juvenile makes this redundant with the Juvy curse. Much more interesting, Street Sense was the first horse since Sunny's Halo (1983) to win the Derby with only 2 starts as a 3yo. A fair amount of the reason this happened is because he had a good 3yo campaign, but even so, this is a rule that was clearly broken, as many before him (including Point Given) had tried to do this and failed.

2008: Big Brown. Last year's Derby winner broke a lot of rules. Putting aside the Florida Derby inanity, he wasn't bred for the distance, had only run 3 times in his career, and only ran twice as a 3yo. So the rules mean nothing then right? No. Big Brown was talented, but no more talented than a few of the other horses already mentioned, and certainly no more talented than 3-7 horses in the mix this year. What was true was that Big Brown was the king of the worst crop of 3yo colts in a decade---a filly ran second in the Derby, and nobody from this group has topped a 105 Gowanus Speed Figure in a route race. Pure talent was enough to win the Derby in 2008 because the year was so poor. Had Curlin run against this group of horses off his three-start campaign, he would have won too. And Dunkirk would have been 6-5 in the Derby last year had he taken Big Brown's place.

So what's the conclusion? The one rule that's pretty clearly gone is that you need to have stout 1 1/4 mile breeding to win the Derby. And the mandate to have 3+ starts as a 3yo is probably gone, as two starts should suffice. (We're hesitant to say that no starts or one start as a 3yo will be enough--recency is still key.) But beyond that, if the crop of horses is decent or better, you still need to fall into the traditional rules until proven otherwise. If it's a crappy crop of horses (which it's not this year), then yes, look beyond the traditional guidelines. But otherwise, a horse still needs to hit a lot of points on the checklist to be a viable contender in the Derby, unless you're backing a wild 50-1 shot for the hell of it.

In the next couple of days, we'll break down the field and see who does and doesn't belong based on history, talent and yes, the rules. It's a deep and talented pool this year, and should be fun to analyze.

Kentucky Derby Preview Part I: Who Should Have Won the Triple Crown since 1978?

If you follow racing at even a superficial level, i.e., watching the Derby with friends on the first Saturday in May, or reading a typical article in what passes for racing coverage in late April, you probably know that we haven't had a winner of the Triple Crown since Affirmed outdueled Alydar in 1978. If you follow racing a little more closely, you know that we've had a parade of horses since then come to the Belmont with a chance to win, all of which failed, and some of which have familiar names. Alysheba. Sunday Silence. Silver Charm. Funny Cide. Smarty Jones. And last year, Big Brown. None of them won. And this 31-year drought has had racing geniuses asking everyone what the heck is keeping horses from winning the Triple Crown?

A news search through the archives of the Daily Racing Form, Blood-Horse, Thoroughbred Times, and anything else in racing press, plus the racing blogosphere, reveals a whole series of excuses that are unavailing. Horses aren't as durable anymore and can't take 3 races in 5 weeks. Breeding. Medication. Training methods. Track conditions. The sheiks of Dubai. Etc., etc., etc. Nobody has really argued another theory: how about the notion that we've only had a few horses who were really Triple Crown material surface in the last 31 years, and most of them have had some bad luck?

It's worth remembering is that there are three ways to lose the Triple Crown. While everyone focuses on the defeats in the Belmont by horses that won the first two legs, a horse can lose the Triple Crown by not winning the Derby or Preakness and winning the other two legs. When you think about Triple Crown "misses" this way, it opens up the debate to a lot more horses that should be in the argument for why they didn't win the Triple Crown. And it also really changes the focus of who should and shouldn't have won the Triple Crown. Horses that got hot for the first two legs like Pleasant Colony, Charismatic and War Emblem are no longer really interesting candidates, because they were non-entities before the Triple Crown and only got hot for a few weeks. Their bids were accidental more than anything else.

So who should have won the Triple Crown in the last 31 years? By our count there are five horses that fall into the coulda woulda shoulda category that won two of the Triple Crown races, and frankly, it's pretty much just bad luck/timing that it didn't happen for one of them. Let's take a quick peek at them.

Spectacular Bid, 1979. The Bid was one of the 15 best horses ever and followed up a great 3yo campaign with an even better 4yo season. I could go into details about how his coked up rookie jockey cost him the Belmont by having him step on a safety pin during the post parade and dueled into defeat, but that story's been told a thousand times. Suffice to say that there's really no great excuse for this horse not being TC winner #12.

Swale, 1984. The son of the 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, this perfectly bred colt won a pair of G1's as a 2 year old, the Florida Derby in March 1984, and absolutely dominated the Kentucky Derby. He then went to the Preakness...and promptly ran 7th. What happened? As Woody Stephens thought would happen, the rock hard surface of Pimlico tore up Swale's tender feet, and much like Riva Ridge in 1972, he wasn't able to adapt to the surface. Swale proved his superiority by winning the Belmont easily 3 weeks later, before dropping dead of a heart attack after a routine morning gallop. His strong 2yo and 3yo campaigns showed that he would have been a perfect Triple Crown winner, had he not just reacted poorly to the Pimlico surface (which mind you, is not a small deal).

Real Quiet, 1998. Many would argue that Real Quiet really wasn't that good, and frankly, they have a point--the horse did lose 14 of his 20 starts, and had either Alex Solis or Gary Stevens given Victory Gallop a decent ride in the Derby or Preakness, Real Quiet would have never been in line for a Triple Crown. Still, when you come this close to winning the Triple Crown, you're in the discussion:



Point Given, 2001. One of the most talented horses this decade, Point Given was a staunch favorite in the 2001 Derby, off of his close 2nd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile as a 2yo, and subsequent victories in the San Rafael and Santa Anita Derby. He came to Churchill Downs, and ran the worst race of his career, finishing 5th behind Monarchos' stellar performance. After that, he won 4 races all worth $1 million and all Grade 1's: the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Travers, where in the process he thumped every 3yo of note. He was then retired before facing older horses and was awarded Horse of the Year.

So what the hell happened on Derby day? It's impossible to argue that he didn't like the track, because he ran a great race there as a 2 year old. It's better to argue that his short 3yo campagin of 2 races left him a little short on the big day. But it's also worth noting that Monarchos ran his eyeballs out on Derby day. Even had Point Given run the race two seconds (10 lengths) faster, he still would have lost. So let's not chalk this up to how bad he was on Derby day, let's really chalk this up to him running into an absolute buzzsaw in Monarchos. It happens.

Afleet Alex, 2005.While Point Given and Real Quiet at least had the excuse of not being the best horse on a given day, and Swale's feet were a valid Achilles Heel, there is absolutely no excuse for this horse not being a Triple Crown winner, as he was a mile better than his competition (save for one-hit wonder Bellamy Road). Afleet Alex had a great 2yo campaign, winning the Hopeful and the Sanford, and finished up with an odd 2nd place finish in the BC Juvy, behind 1-time wonder Wilko. He returned as a 3yo to win the Arkansas Derby, went off the 2nd choice in the Derby, and ran an inexplicably blaise third...to 1-time wonder Giacomo. He then blasted the competition in the Preakness (where he almost fell at the top of the stretch and still won by daylight) and the Belmont, and was promptly retired thereafter. He was clearly clearly clearly the dominant horse of his class.

But his puzzling clunker in Kentucky kept him from immortality, and nobody has given a good answer as to why he ran so poorly that day. (Yes he ran third. His Gowanus Speed Figure was so low he would have run 7th in most other years.) It's one thing to lose to a talented horse like Monarchos that just runs a performance for the ages, which Point Given did. It's another thing to just not show up on Derby day, especially when it's sandwiched between three runaway wins. But that, in short, is what separates a Triple Crown winner from an ordinary horse: being able to deliver an A performance three straight times in three tough spots.

Coming up: another look at the Derby rules, and our annual Derby countdown.

Transactions Analysis: Tax Day Edition

Yes, it's piper-paying time in America, as people of all political persuasions hunch over tax forms, the collective monotony broken only by the gentle popping sound of Grover Norquist's head exploding. The end of the tax year is usually greeted by the loss-taking dumping of underperforming assets, which dovetails nicely with the traditional post-draft orgy of buyer's remorse in the league. Many were called during the draft, but considerably fewer remain chosen. Next year, PECOTA projections should probably wait until mid-April.

Also, a procedural note; because it's tough to tell from the transactions sheet which moves were draft pickups and which were FA moves, we're including only moves from April 1 on. (Teddy)

I really can't improve much on that introduction, because over the past three years, it's become pretty apparent to me that (a) I haven't a clue how to do my own taxes, (b) sadly, neither does my accountant, and (c) I can't build and run a fantasy team either. We'll leave the tax-baseball analogues for rubes like George Will, and move on to more pressing issues: the league's transactions to date. (El Angelo)

Elbow Your Funicular?

Signed: Fred Lewis (OF, SF), Edwin Jackson (SP, DET), Orlando Cabrera (SS, OAK), Jesse Litsch (DL, TOR), Emilio Bonifacio (2B/3B, FL), Nick Swisher (OF, NYY), Kyle Lohse (SP, ATL), Scot Shields (RP, LAA), Randy Wolf (SP, Apparently Still In the MLB), Orlando Hudson (2B, LAD)

Waived: Aaron Cook (SP, COL), Xavier Nady (OF, NYY), Jesse Litsch (DL, TOR), Dan Wheeler (RP, TB), Jeff Francoeur (K, ATL)

This is the work of someone who, perhaps motivated by PECOTA, came to truly disliked his team after the draft. New starters were installed at 2B, 3B, and OF, and another change could be on the horizon now that Yunel Escobar no longer has nightly access to Nats pitching. The changes on offense have worked like a charm, with Nick Swisher in particular bashing the Elbows in to the top spot in the league. The owner has done a great job of identifying and riding hot hands early on.

The pitching faces more question marks following the recent DL'ing of Chris Carpenter and Jesse Litsch, and the report that Kelvim Escobar has had a setback in his recovery. The transactions suggest that the team sees Edwin Jackson and Randy Wolf as valid replacements. While we here at the GRBG never say never, that will never work. Never.

Also, given his early season yo-yo'ing and injury, keep an eye on Litsch for the Pewter Parachute. (Teddy)

That doesn't even touch on the worst parts of this staff: Mike Pelfrey already looks cooked before Mother's Day, and Ricky Nolasco's last start was bad enough to make the team's ace...Kyle Lohse? Good God. And yet, once A-Rod returns next month, this offense may just be massive, given that Miggy Cabrera is on pace to hit a home run for every pound he weighs. Let's also tip the cap to the Bonafacio pickup, who has a shot to become this year's Scott Podsednik. (El Angelo)

It's Enrico Pallazzo

Squadoosh. In contrast to the Elbows, IEP appears to like his PECOTA-darling team. Given that he's, you know, 12 points behind, the optimism might be misplaced, though we here at the GRBG find his faith in science refreshing. (Teddy)

I met Darrin once and I've never met Andrew, but to steal one of Bill Simmons' memes for a minute, I'm starting to get the impression that Darrin was the Sonny Corleone of the team, by making quick, impestuous moves with less of a long-term plan, while Andrew is the Michael Corleone of the team--patient, calculating, and waiting for the right moment to wield his power. This would probably make our Commish Fredo, my co-author Connie, and Sahil as the guy who blew up Apollonia, but let's move on to more pressing matters. (El Angelo)

Le Dupont Torkies

Signed: Coco Crisp (Mascot, Kellogg's), Ian Stewart (2B/3B, COL), Zach Duke (SP, PIT), Glen Perkins (SP, MIN)

Waived: Ramon Hernandez (C, CIN), Crisp, Stewart

So the net here is a replacement-level catcher out, and two lottery ticket starters in. With Dioner Navarro's presence on the roster, the team won't much miss Hernandez, so it's really down to how you feel about the starters. Glen Perkins has come out like a house on fire, and Minnesota seems to mint fun youing arms by the gross, so that pickup looks solid. Zach Duke has burned just about everyone in the league at this point. His track record, plus the slightly fluky nature of his last good outing (which featured few K's and a favorable scoring decision that led to a couple of runs being categorized as unearned), make us more skeptical on that front. (Teddy)

I think I might have kept Zach Duke at one point in my tenure as a bottom dweller in this league. My advice to everyone is to just ignore all Pirate pitchers until they start showing some accumen in the draft or can coax John Smiley out of retirement. They're all disasters waiting to happen. (El Angelo)

Wu Tang Financial

Signed: Andy Pettttitttte (SP, NYY)

Waived: Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B, SD)

While this technically clears the squadoosh threshhold, it doesn't exactly set the heart aflutter. From an excitement-generation perspective, it comes in just between watching Kevin Kouzmanoff actually play a baseball game and correctly filling out your Schedule C (making sure, of course, to carry over your calculations from the Small Business or Farm Income worksheet from line 81 of the instructions manual, available only online at www.fuckyouverymuch.gov). Ang, you got anything here? (Teddy)

The only thing worse than having Kouzmanoff is having any other the other available 3B's in the league. Take a look at the available players eligible at 3B. (Twiddles thumbs.) That's right. Taking aside Melvin Mora's corpse, the only players ranked higher than Kouzmanoff are the aforementioned Ian Stewart, who Clint Hurdle keeps jerking around, and Chase Headley, who bats right in front of Kouzmanoff and is currently hitting .177. This position is so shallow that another injury to a 3B may mean that Greg Dobbs sees regular action, which is disgusting. (El Angelo)

Recalcitrant Cobbler

Signed: David Freese (3B, STL), Rafael Soriano (RP, ATL), Hank Blalock (CI, TEX); also called up Jordan Schaefer (OF, ATL) from prospect list.

Waived: Billy Wagner (TJ, NYM), Freese.

I guess this is a sign of aging or maturity or whatever on my part, but it seems like the first transaction involving a player I've never heard of comes earlier and earlier each season. I wish David Freese nothing but the best in his future endeavors as the J.V. baseball coach of the Rockford (IL) H.S. Fightin' Hog Callers, but I frankly admit that his presence on this transactions list confuses the sh-t out of me. (Teddy)

After ten minutes of research, I learned that Freese is a 26-year old rookie that couldn't hit his way out of A-ball when he was 25. I think it's safe to say he's not particularly talented. Of course, this could have been evidenced by the fact he was the entire haul the Cardinals got for shipping off Jim Edmonds' decaying carcass two years ago. Does Bartolacci run the Padres? (El Angelo)

Mission Accomplished

Signed: Jon Rauch (RP, ARI), Octavio Dotel (RP, CHW), Veal Saltimbocca (C, TEX), Jeremy Hermida (OF, FLA), Billy Wagner (RP, NYM), Kosuke Fukudome (OF, CHC)

Waived: Dave Bush (SP, MIL), Carlos Gomez (OF, MIN), Ryan Theriot (SS, CHC), Rauch, Hermida.

Acquired Justin Upton (OF, ARI) and Stephen Drew (SS, ARI); traded away Joey Votto (1B, CIN) and Lastings Milledge (OF, AAA).

Yeah, yeah, cool trade (discussed in the TSA blurb below), Salty's a nice flyer, arglebargle fooferall. Explain the Billy Wagner pickup right this very instant. (Teddy)

The Wagner move is easy to defend: it's the ol' DL-stash move for a team that has no DL spots occupied. Recent reports have him returning in late-July, and if he shows any flashes of competence, some owner is going to overpay for him to be their closer next year. Considering I had to cut Jon Rauch to get him, it was a cinch. I'm more pissed about the fact that my team somehow has 2 steals so far this season, and I specifically drafted guys who could run. Sigh. (El Angelo)

Unenviable Position

Signed: Chistian Guzman (SS, WAS), Dan Wheeler (RP, TB)

Waived: Jed Lowrie (SS, The Death Ship That Is The 2009 Red Sox)

Hmm. In light of my Christian Guzman pickup, perhaps I shouldn't have been quite so aggressive on the Wagner issue. The best defense I can muster is that with JJ Hardy off to a slow start and Jed Lowrie first crappy, then hurt, I needed another option at SS. Guzman is off to a scorching start, and while that won't continue forever, I just need it to continue until Hardy pulls his head out of Ryan Braun's ass. Given that I own the shaky corpse of Troy Percival, Wheeler has value to me as a spare tire if Percival blows out. (Teddy)

You're losing your fastball, dude. You passed on the chance to either pick up Mike Aviles or Edgar Rent-a-suck, both of which are not only better players than Guzman, but also provide more materials for these TAs. Go drink some tawny as penance. (El Angelo)

Aroids Anonymous

Signed: JP Howell (RP, TB), Mark Teahen (CI/OF, KC), Miguel Tejada (SS, HOU), Andruw Jones (OF, TEX), Jason Hammel (SP, COL), Adam Lind (OF, TOR), Koji Uehara (SP, BAL), Aaron Hill (2B, TOR)

Waived: Dustin McGowan (P, TOR), Howell, Jones, Hammel.

I admit to frank envy at the Adam Lind pickup, as Toronto looks like it's about to embark on a season full of 9-7 losses. Lind's numbers might suffer a bit once the Jays move Travis Snider out of the 9-hole and into a prime spot in the lineup, but all of a sudden they have a fun offensive ballclub. That said, Aaron Hill might be pushing the Toronto-as-offensive-juggernaut meme a step too far. Also, as cooked former All-Start shortstops go, Miguel Tejada looks like an upgrade over Mike Young. Although I haven't re-run the numbers, I'd have to imagine that PECOTA would like this new offense a lot better than the original. (Teddy)

PECOTA's only going to like this offense better if you ignore the Mark Teabag pickup, which defies logic, reason, and common sense. More importantly, under our nose, Corey has gone ahead and tried an utterly goofy roster construction, where he has a pitching slot empty because he has two guys with bad arms (Smoltz and the Wrong Buchholz) on the DL, and yet is stockpiling shitty hitters that don't belong on a fantasy team like Dan Duquette reincarnated. I'd like to say I get it, but a team that has a bench with 2 Royals and 3 second baseman is, ahem, oddly arranged. (El Angelo)

wormcheese mousebird

Signed: AJ Pierzynski (C/Douchebag, CHW), Brandon Inge (C/3B, DET), Aaron Rowand (OF, SF), Dennys Reyes (RP, STL); also called up Cameron Maybin (OF, FLA) from prospect list and tried to gank Travis Snider (OF, TOR) from another prospect list.

Waived: Jason Giambi (DH, HGH), Rick Ankiel (OF, STL), Pierzynski, Rowand.

Before we get into the minutae of these transactions, a word or two is on order about the team renaming. If, in the grand history of fantasy team names, there has been a jump in VORTN (value over replacement team name) greater than the move from "AIDS AIDS AIDS AIDS" to "wormcheese mousebird", our extensive archives here at the GRBG don't show it. Bravo and huzzah and whatnot.

As for the moves themselves, kudos to the team for recognizing a weakness at OF and moving aggressively to fix it. Unfortunately, the rules prevent fixing a hole by poaching another team's player, and harsh reality prevents Aaron Rowand from being useful in any fantasy league in which facial stitches are not a scoring category. (Teddy)

Once again Sir Teddy, memory is failing you. When Corey re-entered the league in '07, he named his team Windy City Windfalls, instead of M*ike, the worst eff'ing team name ever. This name change pales in comparison. Finish your damn beer.

Also, Dennys Reyes blows. (El Angelo)

The Loose Bowels

Signed: James Loney (1B, LAD), Shaun Marcum (DL, TOR), David Purcey (P, TOR), Joel Zumaya (RP, DET), Marco Scutaro (IF, TOR), Ryan Theriot (SS, CHC)

Waived: JD Drew (OF, BOS), Mike Aviles (SS, KC), Marcum.

Let's begin by pouring some out for my homie Mike Aviles, a man who inspired more jokes in a shorter period of time than just about any player in the league since the halcyon days of Mo Vaughn. Never surrender, never forget.

Anyway, what we have here are the first stirrings of what promises to be a season-long struggle with The Loose Bowels' thematically appropriate down-the-middle issues. A Ryco Thetaro platoon at SS is really only marginally more palatable than Aviles was, though it does help address the team's biggest weakness, its lack of OBP. The JD Drew waiver might prove costly on that front, as he is usually good for an OBP in the .380s, though his back issues this season might weigh him down. (Teddy)

I was going to make an excuse for the commish that the Drew cut made sense given the roster composition, then looked at his starting lineup and realized he's not only given into moronic homerism by starting Ryan Vincent Ludwick and a newbie in Colby Rasmus, but is also trotting out Vernon Wells, presumably to show that Andy has a sense of humor or is hoping for a miracle on his birthday. So I take it back and concur with Teddy: cutting JD Drew so you could have room to keep James Loney (wtf?) was a bad move. (El Angelo)

The Spam Avengers

Signed: Todd Helton (1B, Old), Santiago Cassilla (RP, OAK), Kyle Davies (SP, KC), Aaron Rowand (OF, SF)

Waived: Helton, Cassilla.

Acquired Joey Votto (1B, CIN) and Lastings Milledge (OF, AAA); traded away Justin Upton (OF, ARI) and Stephen Drew (SS, ARI)

Holy sh-t, for a scond there I though I was actually going to have to come up with some sort of analysis of a Santiago Cassilla pickup. Luckily, our tardiness in getting this first TA out saved me. I then decided I'd talk about why this team is off to such a lousy start, but I can't really figure that out either.

So instead I'll talk about the trade. Milledge's really weird demotion by the Nats obviously takes the shine off of the trade, though in reality it just means TSA has traded one certain bench player (Stephen Drew wasn't getting any burn with Jimmy Rollins around) for another. It does, however, make the OF very thin, especially given Ichiro's weird ulcer problem. Other than that I like the trade, as I think Joey Votto is poised to destroy the universe this season as the centerpiece of the Reds' offense. TSA is losing the trade on points at the moment with Milledge in the minors, but has a chance to battle back as the season progresses. (Teddy)

Alex and I sort of got the same middle finger thrown back at us, with Justin Upton being repeatedly benched for Eric Byrnes' fro and threatened to be sent to the minors until he got a hit. Not to pat myself on the back, but this trade on paper is a win-win for both; I'm a little more bearish on Votto than my co-author and love Upton, while Drew fits a hole for my team perfectly. But you have to like the deal for the Spammers long term, presuming that the Nats figure out that Austin Kearns is not the answer. (El Angelo)

Evil League of Evil

at left: They do the weird stuff!

We close with our second squadoosh (squadeuce?). They do know they're in last, right? (Teddy)

This photo is so utterly bizarre, frightening and disturbing that I'm afraid to render a comment on it. What the hell is this from? The Wizard, Part II? (El Angelo)

Thus Spake PECOTA

With our armchair analysis in the books, it's time to wheel out the big analytical guns. We've run the rosters of each team through the PECOTA projection system put out by Baseball Prospectus and come up with something resembling a objective crack at a predicted order of finish. But before we get to the results, let's lay out our methodology and some problems with the system up front. Do us a favor and read all this before you flip out about the predictions, OK?

We took each team's best-projected hitter at each position, even if a team plans to start someone else, in order to take the human element out of the process. No effort was made to account for the production of replacement or bench hitters, because it all just got too complicated, and the whole point here was to use something other than our subjective opinion to predict the league.

For pitchers, we did our best to projected the starting 9 plus the best bench pitcher, to better reflect how teams actually use their staffs in this league. We should also say that these standings are incredibly close in places; one change in a closer job can (and has) moved the predictions around pretty good.

Now, here are the three major problems with all this.

Problem: The system chokes on injury and risk.

Take A-Rod. PECOTA sensibly takes a bite out of his projected production to account for his existing injury. But he still has the best projected full-season line of any 3B on his owner's roster. So A-Rod's line goes into the projection. However, by doing so the projection entirely omits the production the team will get from whatever random guy they plug in until A-Rod is healthy. This means that team's counting stats will be understated, and its rate stats might be overstated. This hurts more for stud offensive players, because each has 4 counting stats and 1 rate stat, than it does for pitchers, who have 2 real counting stats and 2 rate stats.

Similarly, PECOTA takes a bite out of the projection of players who are big injury risks going forward. This especially hurts pitchers, as they tend to have larger risk profiles. So if a guy has a 60% chance of blowing out his arm, PECOTA docks about 60% of his counting stats. Again, while that approach makes some sense, it doesn't factor in replacement performance.

Along those same lines, the system probably underrates stars-and-scrubs teams by assuming that they'll roll with the same scrubs all year rather than sort through the waiver wire for a guy having a fluke year.

The point is that the system underrates the chances of high-risk, high-reward teams. So bear that in mind when you see the projected standings.

Problem: The system does not factor in owner performance.

Good owners can add value in two ways. They can manage well, taking the guys on their roster and mixing and matching them to best effect. Or they can GM well, adding to their roster through pickups and trades. Since we have no idea what will happen on either of those fronts, the predictions just take the rosters as given. The projections show what the likely outcome would be if we all set our lineups on Opening Day and then came back in October to see who won. If you don't like your prediction, well, go manage your way up.

Problem: PECOTA likes what PECOTA likes.

PECOTA has a good reputation. However, it isn't perfect. It has its darlings (like Matt Wieters and A.J. Burnett) and bete noires (like Ichiro, who PECOTA seems to think will be crushed by a falling piano at some point this year, and David Ortiz, who it thinks is cooked). Projections are only as good as the inputs used to generate them; if you think PECOTA is dumb, you'll think the projections are dumb.

With all that in mind, we present the PECOTA-projected Wankdorf standings for the upcoming season:

	Pitching	Hitting	Total
It's Enrico Palazzo	47	41.5	88.5
Wu Tang Financial	46	42	88
Unenviable Position	44.5	41	85.5
Evil League of Evil	35	38	73
Mission Accomplished	26.5	46.5	73
Recalcitrant Cobblers	33.5	34	67.5
The Loose Bowels	34	33	67
wormcheese mousebird	23	32.5	55.5
The Spam Avengers	29.5	24	53.5
Elbow Your Funicular?	25	25.5	50.5
Le Dupont Torkies	32.5	16	48.5
Aroids Anonymous	14.5	15	29.5

If you don't like them, go to Russia. Or just call Baseball Prospectus and yell at them. IEP, pressure's on you.

Edit--by popular request, here are the raw totals PECOTA came up with.

PITCHING	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Chad	84	86	1130	3.89	1.29
Ang	86	13	1069	4.12	1.37
Sahil	79	80	1004	4.13	1.32
Will	74	109	919	4.08	1.35
Jake	77	70	1012	3.73	1.31
Alex	71	87	1014	3.95	1.31
Jon	76	90	1073	3.76	1.27
Corey	66	91	912	4.20	1.37
Scot	80	86	1038	3.91	1.31
Elders	66	100	1047	3.96	1.30
Andrew	91	41	1160	3.84	1.28
Tucker	66	143	932	3.85	1.31
HITTING	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP
Chad	751	227	749	104	0.358
Ang	790	196	750	106	0.366
Sahil	756	178	715	138	0.353
Will	712	196	749	69	0.352
Jake	754	187	739	98	0.358
Alex	741	153	664	130	0.353
Jon	765	188	678	125	0.365
Corey	719	150	648	107	0.350
Scot	757	193	730	88	0.360
Elders	735	190	736	82	0.361
Andrew	773	187	757	82	0.361
Tucker	682	184	708	78	0.353

Season Preview: Evil League of Evil

The last of my sextet of preview goes to Evil League of Evil, whose owner is perpetually in the money, drafts the best players, and on the right ends of most trades. To top it off, he's a very nice guy and a pleasure to deal with in the realm of fantasy baseball, meaning that he is, in fact, pure evil. It's with this jaundiced, crabby, forlorn eye that we examine whether or not he'll make it to the top of the league...once again.

Infield

Deep and frankly, a bit scary. Chris Ianetta, who I like a lot, is the worst player they'll be starting regularly, because they have super sophmores Chris Davis and Alexi Ramirez on one side of the infield with stud David Wright and Raffy Furcal on the other side. There's some injury and soph jinx risk here, for sure, but even the bench is solid, as Felipe Lopez isn't awful, and Matt Laporta and Conor Jackson are around to play the corner spots. Woof.

Outfield

Health is key, as is some players picking up where the left off last year. Carlos Quentin was arguably the MVP of the AL through September 1 last year, and Josh Hamilton is as talented a hitter as there is in baseball. But let's see them both do it again this year before we start crowning their asses. That said, them plus solid citizen Jason Bay and sneaky sleeper Brett Gardner makes for a very well-rounded outfield.

Starters

The Nazis (score, Teddy!) have taken the stars and scrubs approach here, as Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren are two studs atop the rotation, and then they're followed by some oddballs named Oliver! and KenKen, two guys whose status is currently "NA", and the unkillable Big Eunuch. We can't really rate this until we look at...

Relievers

...the fact that they have 4 relievers and 3 closers on the team. That sounds great in theory, but they've got the Baltimore tandem, the Reds' fireballer and someone who's trying to get outs in Arlington, Texas. They should rack up saves, but their peripherals may kill the good work that Tiny Tim and Big Dan do in the rotation, and at a minimum, should undo the work of the other starters. I'd be shocked if they didn't try to flip a hitter for a real pitcher come July.

Prognosis

The hitting is ridiculously good and well-rounded, the pitching....less so. That said, we said the exact same thing about the Torkies last year, and they won going away. While PECOTA may disagree, here's my pick as the preseason favorite.