tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65441800359396259732024-03-07T01:13:38.278-05:00GRBGThe Gowanus Rotisserie Baseball GazetteTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00935989991466298719noreply@blogger.comBlogger541125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-72809909579394417502019-10-09T16:59:00.001-04:002019-10-09T17:18:31.173-04:00Transactions Analysis: The Mic Drop<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9Rl5y-WipYuhYPLAQKKzhQfQl__dZ4VThs0bD9lCXeE01EOrY8tl5wgmu6X5zHV4NiUiClLHmFVzYmAv70LMSwzWOc-fEgrBzahWBQ0rLVrKM0svcJ3-ITBnpvjW-EQzt-f_ooEByUtmt/s1600/micdrop.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9Rl5y-WipYuhYPLAQKKzhQfQl__dZ4VThs0bD9lCXeE01EOrY8tl5wgmu6X5zHV4NiUiClLHmFVzYmAv70LMSwzWOc-fEgrBzahWBQ0rLVrKM0svcJ3-ITBnpvjW-EQzt-f_ooEByUtmt/s200/micdrop.jpg" width="200" /></a>Yes lads it's time. After 18 years, 50,000 transactions, and 400 Ryan Cum Dempster jokes, the Young Boys' Wankdorf league has called it quits. Which means there's only one last bit of housekeeping - a final TA!<br />
<br />
At the risk of being sappy, Teddy and I started writing these on a whim in the 3rd season in the league's "recent messages" column, and at some point, one of us had the hair-brained idea to start a "site" with the columns, rather than using the message board. We've since then populated this site with horse racing previews, World Cup analysis, and dissertations on the Heisman Trophy, but to us, this site has first and foremost been a repository for the TAs. So let's give it the proper send off. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Some historical context might prove useful. The first real TA published on the blog--which, as Ang notes, happened something like 3-4 years into the TA era--contained the following entry:<br />
<br />
<b>Nigerian Gentlemen</b> <br />
<br />
<b>Signed</b>: Oliver Pérez (NYM - SP), Kenny Lofton (Tex - OF), Moisés Alou
(NYM - OF), Jim Edmonds (StL - OF), Jon Lester (Bos - SP), Aubrey Huff
(Bal - 3B,OF)<br />
<br />
<b>Waived</b>: Lester, Joel Piñeiro (Bos - SP,RP)<br />
<br />
Hmm.
So the Sese Sekos added (at least temporarily) two good, if flawed,
young arms, presumably in an attempt to compete down the road. They then
turned around and added FOUR past-their-prime outfielders, in what
looks like a win-now strategy. Obviously, it's a touch early to
completely abandon this season (unless you're Angelo, in which case
you're already preparing your draft list for 2009), but the mixed
signals are odd. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
Well, they waived Cancer Boy <span style="font-weight: bold;">Lester</span>,
so there's really just adding one arm, and that's the volatile Oliver!
Perez. I've seen dumber ideas. Like....signing 3 guys who are well fit
for a HACKING MASS squad and Jim Edmonds' corpse. Vomit. (Angelo)<br />
<br />
...<br />
<br />
All of the following is true<b>: Moises Alou</b> is now the general manager of the Dominican Winter League. <b>Aubrey Huff</b> is <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/aubrey-huff-seth-mcclung-feuding-143936948.html">getting in Twitter fights with<b> Seth McClung</b></a>. <b>Kenny Lofton</b> is the CEO of <a href="https://filmpool.net/">Filmpool, Inc.</a>, which just produced an MMA movie starring <b>the guy from Starship Troopers</b>. <b>Jim Edmonds</b> has appeared on the Real Housewives of Orange County. None of Twitter, Filmpool Inc, or the Real Housewives existed when the original post was made. <br />
<br />
So, yeah. We're talking a borderline actual geologic era here. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#20. Val (1 season, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 1 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
Val's only season got off to a rip-roaring start when his first two draft picks were Nomar Garciaparra and Bret Boone, hot off the latter's Brady Anderson 1991 impersonation. Can't fathom why Val lost. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
The Nomar pick was understandable because Val's father's name is Onitnelav (he's Moldovan). (Teddy) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#18T. Vihal (1 season, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#18T. Other Scot (ibid)</span></b><br />
<br />
I remember absolutely nothing about either of these guys other than that they participated remotely in the first draft at Andy's apartment, and I was dealing with them online. I think they were Elders' friends? Either way, they were so unmemorable they go below our other one-and-done owner. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
I want to tread lightly here because we're old enough that one or both of these guys could plausibly be dead by now. Thoughts and prayers(?). (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#17. Bartolacci (1 season, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
Two words for everyone who was in the league the first year: Shane Reynolds. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Dave's team ultimately met the same fate as his <a href="https://twitter.com/coachbarto">Twitter account</a>: abandoned for a decade and then hacked by the Russians. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#16. M*ke (2 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL, 1 Quit)</span></b><br />
<br />
The guy who refused to give his team an actual name, and quit because we twice vetoed a trade where he dealt away all of his good players for - and this is serious - an injured Francisco Liriano, an uninjured Armando Benitez, Freddie Sanchez, JD Drew, and something called Gary Glover. I remember exchanging about 400 emails around this trade brouhaha, including one where Will rejected the trade from China, and another where Sahil told someone to go get their shinebox. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
My email reflects that shortly thereafter,<b> Gary Glover</b> was dropped for Luis Vizcaino. Then he got busted for child sexual assault. Things may have turned around, though, because his song "Rock and Roll Part 2" is featured in the new Joker movie.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#15. Sahil (18 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 4 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
There is something truly glorious about Ironhead's 18-year run of futility, to the point where we're ranking him below people who were in the league for less than a full presidential administration. I'll give the man this: he had the best team names, and I appreciated his desire to stick with the ee cummings typeface convention. My personal favorites were "i am esix snead" and "bonderman's grundle," though I have no idea what generated the latter name. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
A commonly voiced criticism of statistical analysis holds that numbers can be used to prove almost anything. There is merit to that criticism. For example, coming into this year Sahil's average place of finish over his time in the league was 8.9. That statistic implies that in last year's 8-team league, Sahil should have finished 0.9 places behind the last-place finisher. This, of course, did not happen. He instead finished 8th and last, thereby slightly *improving* his historical average place of finish to 8.8.<br />
<br />
"bonderman's grundle" slaps, though. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#T13. Matty (3 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#T13. Ben (3 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPJMqJBoUhftC1aCYCYLTq85jCjV8kXukcnBx0HmMNfjl2DA7r4eOSNdIs1cTI1lVjWsJqBm17VRCu7V0lzaR31tBtsErGpqIX2XTn5oG_cjghINZcF-varLvDAH1OQJu-j9_7UY5xCkk/s1600/mose.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="250" data-original-width="250" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPJMqJBoUhftC1aCYCYLTq85jCjV8kXukcnBx0HmMNfjl2DA7r4eOSNdIs1cTI1lVjWsJqBm17VRCu7V0lzaR31tBtsErGpqIX2XTn5oG_cjghINZcF-varLvDAH1OQJu-j9_7UY5xCkk/s200/mose.jpg" width="200" /></a>Matt was an initial owner who bowed out after 3 years (and also my fairly useless brother). Ben came into about a decade after it started, and also only lasted 3 years. Both guys were of relatively good cheer, always willing to talk trade, and spectacular at busting Andy's balls. The last skill is not one to under-appreciate, as we learned with, oh I don't know who...let's just call him, *ike. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
This one caused some controversy in the GRBG's headquarters (currently located beneath the steam table at the Gowanus Whole Foods), as I vociferously argued that Ben's <b>Mose Schrute</b> beard should put him over the top. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#12. Darrin (4 seasons solo, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
I can't remember if Darrin was in from Year 1 or Year 2, but he also was always willing to talk trade and drink beer. He's more memorable for bringing in a co-owner who, unlike many of the other names on this list, actually knew what he was doing, and made the league tough for stiffs like me. Solid on his own; tough when he was a co-owner. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
The increasing competency of the league over time remains a vexation. Get dumber, people. (Teddy) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#11. Jon (17 seasons, 0 wins, 1 cash, 2 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
In three separate years, Jon and I executed draft-day trades where I traded down and still got the player I wanted plus something extra. Mind you, in <i>none</i> of those years did either of us finish in the money. I think Jon's best season was about a decade ago when he won the Deathship league. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
I'll always remember Jon for trading me <b>Troy Tulowitski</b> eleven days prior to Tulo's first major knee injury. I still have a printed-out copy of the espnzone.lycos.com story announcing the injury on the floor of my bird's cage. The bird died in 2012, so I doubt it minds. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#10. Corey (14 seasons, 0 wins, 1 cash, 2 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
Pips Jon because he finished in 2nd once, while Jon never topped 3rd. Really, the best part about this league calling it quits was getting rid of any emails with wormcheesemousebird. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
You know, we're almost done with this finale post and we haven't really done anything yet to pass along our accumulated wisdom to the next generation of people who will undoubtedly use the Blogger platform to chronicle their fantasy teams. Let's correct that by dropping three nuggets of wisdom:<br />
<br />
1. The word "Neshek" is funny; use it relentlessly.<br />
2. Never get aboard an aircraft piloted by a New York Yankee<br />
3. Once your league owners start having kids, MAINTAIN AN UP-TO-DATE SPREADSHEET OF THOSE KIDS' NAMES. I cannot emphasize this last point too strongly. (Teddy) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#9. Andy (18 seasons, 0 wins 2 cashes, 2 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
As an initial point, I want to say that Andy was a superb commish for nearly two decades. This wasn't the most contentious league, but several of us, myself included, are pains in the ass, and Sahil is Sahil. I mean, this league was started by a bunch of law school students, and then voluntarily added multiple Duke alums and a guy working for George W. Bush. Prickishness was a given. But Andy's patience and fairness were a testament to his character.<br />
<br />
In terms of being an owner...well, Andy's most consequential move was dealing a prospect named Mike Trout and a future first rounder to Scot in July 2011 as part of an ill-fated pennant drive. Andy finished in 8th - and by points, closer to last than 5th - and Scot used Trout plus the pick (which became Zack Greinke) to win 4 of the next 5 titles. Woof. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Seconded. This was a hell of a lot of effort for no reward other than dealing with a rotating cast of snarkmonsters. I've been meaning to tell Andy that for a long time, but I'm still waiting for him to sober up from that poker game in 2002 where he locked himself in the bathroom. (Teddy) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#8. Angelo (17 seasons, 0.5 wins, 4.5 cashes, 4 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
With the passage of time, I completely forgot about my mid-late 2000s version of The Process, where I basically sat out two years with the idea of accumulating draft picks, only to blow them on baseball's versions of Jahlil Okafor. My results in this league were essentially a sine curve: in the money the first two years, jack shit after the benefits of a good initial draft wore off, a little bump of success about 8 years in, followed by more jack shit, then an out-of-nowhere win with co-owner Wilfredo. Viva Stable Geniuses! (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
The relentless avoidance of mediocricy was impressive. Although, in retrospect, it's fair to question the wisdom of tanking for draft picks in a league in which the 144 top players may not reach the draft. Thanks also for blowing what I know to be multiple days of your one and only life on this extremely odd thing we created. (Teddy) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#7. Will (17 seasons, 0.5 wins, 3.5 cashes, 2 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
My partner goes above me because (a) he rode the hell out of our team in September last year to get us the W, and (b) he sucked less frequently than me. The genesis of our 2018 team was forged at Tucker's wedding, when Will and I - for reasons unclear - described the TA column to a dozen extremely confused, drunk, and sunburned WASPs. My other favorite contribution Will made to the league was repeatedly making trade demands and threatening to put you on the No Fly List if you didn't accept. I like to think that Sahil still gets a full cavity search every time he's at BWI. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Will's other claim to fame was proving completely impervious to predictions made in the column. This included predictions by Ang and I, as well as polls of the league as a whole. Although it makes sense that our own deplorable would prove unmeasurable by polls. (Teddy) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#6. Jake (12 seasons, 1 win, 5 cashes, 0 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
Never forget: in the league's first year, 9 owners finished behind 2 guys who spent 5 weeks on the road with no internet access, and another guy with a debilitating medical issue. Man, we really should have convinced Val to stay in the league. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
I learned I had climbed from 8th to 3d over those five weeks by using
a public internet kiosk in the food court of the Stardust. Almost none
of those nouns still exist. (Teddy) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#5. Teddy (18 seasons, 1 win, 6 cashes, 0 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
I actually thought my co-author had more cashes than this - he never really punted in a given year, and usually drafted well in the middle rounds. A review of the old standings revealed that he had <b>four</b> seasons where he accumulated 91 - 96.5 points, and won in none of those years. It wasn't until I took a year off that the competition lightened enough for him to be able to hoist the trophy. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
My strength was making getting the best out of the roster I drafted--in other words, as a fantasy coach. But like so many other coaches who also aspire to GM, I leave a legacy as a genuinely questionable drafter. I should have just thrown on autodraft every year and then figured out my platoons from there. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<br /><b><span style="color: blue;">#4. Andrew/Darrindrew (14 seasons, 2 wins, 7 cashes, 0 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
The top 4 owners were truly in an echelon above the rest - after the inaugural season, there wasn't a year where at least one of them didn't finish in the money, they took two of the three money slots in 12 of those 17 years, and swept the money 4 times. Andrew was one of our steadiest owners - he won in what I think was his first year playing in 2007 (with Darrin back then), and was constantly in the money or a threat to cash. On a personal level, I sadly have never met Andrew, and I think his connection to the league was Darrin, who came in through Jake. If you're ever in New York, Mr. Cain, beers on me. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Agreed; all I have to add is that the data really broke down in some earlier years, so we don't really have know for sure where Darrin ended and Andrew began. Fourteen years earns magnanimity. (Teddy) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#3. Alex (17 seasons, 4 wins, 8 cashes, 0 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
A win for each time he drafted Huston Street too early. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Either his Simpsons icon hasn't been updated for a while or it is pulling some kind of reverse Portrait of Dorian Grey on him. (Teddy) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#2. Tucker (18 seasons, 4 wins, 8 cashes, 0 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
Not only was he perpetually in contention, Tucker yearly had the most predictable yet unique roster construction of anyone in the league: top-notch hitters, a 1-2 man bench, and cycle through a zillion pitchers while riding hot hands. I didn't do the math, but I would bet that Tucker cut over 600 relief pitchers over the his stewardship. And it largely worked! It's almost like he was a precursor to modern baseball pitching usage. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Yeah, he's the one who turned the Astros on to spin rate. But I'll remember him best as the runaway winner of the "Loudest Audible Scoffs Over a Draft Conference Call" awards from 2008-2015. Those were first-ballot performances. (Teddy) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">#1. Scot (14 seasons, 5 wins, 10 cashes, 1 DAFL)</span></b><br />
<br />
In the money 71% of the time, the most wins, and a last place finish tossed in just to throw us off the scent. (He promptly wasted the first pick on Hanley Ramirez!) There's really no debate who was the dominant owner in the league; it's almost enough to let us ignore the fact he's a Texas Rangers fan. My compliments to the ultimate champ. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
He came across so reasonably over email, too. Even so, I like to assume that he spent all our money on needle drugs and puppy catapults. Makes it easier, somehow. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
* * *<br />
<br />
<div class="quoteText">
Finally, for posterity, here are the final statistical standings. <i>Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Es.</i></div>
<div class="quoteText">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; table-layout: fixed; width: 0px;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"AVG FINISH"}" style="font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">AVG FINISH</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Cashes"}" style="font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">Cashes</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Cash %"}" style="font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">Cash %</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Wins"}" style="font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">Wins</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Win %"}" style="font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">Win %</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Scot"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Scot</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":9}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.64}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.64</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.36}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.36</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Alex"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Alex</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4.1}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">4.1</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":9}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.53}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.53</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.24}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.24</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Tucker"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tucker</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4.2}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">4.2</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":9}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.5}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.5</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,2,"0.00",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.22}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.22</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Jake"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Jake</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5.3}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">5.3</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.42}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.42</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":1}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">1</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.08}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.08</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Chad"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Chad</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5.5}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">5.5</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">6</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.33}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.33</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":1}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">1</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.06}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.06</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Darrandrew"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Darrandrew***</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5.7}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">5.7</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">6</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.35}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.35</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":2}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">2</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.12}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.12</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Angelo"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Angelo</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6.7}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">6.7</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4.5}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">4.5</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.26}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.26</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"0.5**"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.5**</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.03}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.03</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Will"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Will</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7.2}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">7.2</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":2.5}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">2.5</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.18}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.18</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"0.5**"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.5**</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.03}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.03</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Matty G."}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Matty G.</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7.2}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">7.2</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Corey*"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Corey*</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7.3}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">7.3</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":1}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">1</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.07}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.07</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Andy"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Andy</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7.4}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">7.4</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":2}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">2</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.11}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.11</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Ben"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Ben</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7.6}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">7.6</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Jon"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Jon</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":8.3}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">8.3</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":1}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">1</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.06}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0.06</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Sahil"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Sahil</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":8.8}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">8.8</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Barto"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Barto</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":9}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Vihal"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Vihal</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":9}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Other Scot"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Other Scot</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":9}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Mike*"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Mike*</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":9}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Val"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Val</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":12}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">12</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"-"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">-</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td style="border-right: 1px solid transparent; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"* Corey split '07 with Mike; finish assigned to Mike"}" style="border-right: 1px solid transparent; overflow: visible; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="left: -98px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; white-space: nowrap; width: 297px;">
<div style="left: 0px; margin-left: -100%; margin-right: -100%; position: relative; text-align: center;">
* Corey split '07 with Mike; finish assigned to Mike</div>
</div>
</td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"** Co-owners in year of victory"}" style="border-right: 1px solid transparent; overflow: visible; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="left: 3px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; white-space: nowrap; width: 196px;">
<div style="float: left;">
** Co-owners in year of victory</div>
</div>
</td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td style="border-right: 1px solid transparent; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"† Coupled as an entry because of past joint ownership"}" style="border-right: 1px solid transparent; overflow: visible; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="left: -98px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; white-space: nowrap; width: 398px;">
<div style="left: -50.5px; margin-left: -100%; margin-right: -100%; position: relative; text-align: center;">
† ***Coupled as an entry because of past joint ownership</div>
</div>
</td><td style="border-right: 1px solid transparent; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="quoteText">
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}</style></div>
--><br />
<div class="quoteText">
<br /></div>
<br />El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-72679544925025494662019-05-03T08:37:00.000-04:002019-05-03T08:47:33.136-04:002019 Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The Top HalfIn the past we've tried to opine on whether a class of Derby horses was "weak" or "strong." This has largely turned out to be a fool's errand, mainly because most of the horses that run in the Derby are inexperienced. Back in the 1980s and 90s, when horses had run 8-12 times before the Derby, we had a good idea who was any good. But now, with most horses having run fewer than 7 times, we're largely guessing as to whether they're going to be good long-term.<br />
<br />
Take last year - we thought that was an excellent class. We couldn't have been more wrong. <b>Justify </b>was clearly excellent and <b>Good Magic</b> was fine. But he rest of the Derby crop was a big blah. The Travers was won by <b>Catholic Boy</b>, a turf horse that had some dirt ability. The Pennsylvania Derby was won by <b>McKinzie </b>who missed the entire Triple Crown. None of the 3 year olds did anything in the Breeders Cup or the Pegasus Cup. The 3rd place finisher in the Derby (<b>Audible</b>)<b> </b>has been outright bad since the Derby, 4th place finisher <b>Instilled Regard</b> looks like a turf horse, <b>Bravazo </b>and <b>Hofburg </b>haven't won a graded stakes race, and <b>Vino Rosso</b> has bombed trying Grade 1 races.<br />
<br />
That said, we have a mental line of demarcation between the top 11 and bottom 9 horses in this year's field. We give all the horses we previewed yesterday almost no shot to win on Saturday except for Maximum Security, who we really don't like. And even among the top 9, we have a mental break at around #5 as to who can actually win the race. So you won't find us backing...<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">We Might Regret This</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6FLykTGuPeebfkLidEC3xGYQTj4YW2KMeToqqVFbUJs7XiMfg09t72tXR_y30J8Ze8jIQ7KsW-pUaC511yRdV0hi3AajAvfsY2VTlhdPDGGQuGJrttuEOy4ePZHy4y_Nov_KOcFMfjOK1/s1600/baffert.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6FLykTGuPeebfkLidEC3xGYQTj4YW2KMeToqqVFbUJs7XiMfg09t72tXR_y30J8Ze8jIQ7KsW-pUaC511yRdV0hi3AajAvfsY2VTlhdPDGGQuGJrttuEOy4ePZHy4y_Nov_KOcFMfjOK1/s320/baffert.jpeg" width="320" /></a><b><span style="color: purple;">9. Improbable.</span></b> (<b>ML</b>: 5-1; <b>VL</b>: 25-1) Every class of thoroughbreds has a horse or two that wow you in their debut or first two races, leave everyone wondering what the horse's ceiling is, and it turns out we've already seen it. This year's version is Improbable, who has the exact same connections as <b>Justify </b>(Bob Baffert trains, WinStar and China Horse Club own). He won his maiden race stylishly, followed by an impressive win ungraded stakes race on the Breeders Cup card, which more than a few people thought was the best performance by a 2 year old that weekend. Greatness was portended for Improbable by many, and since then he's been...fine. Just fine. He won the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, which was a nice win but only marginally faster than his prior win, and was against absolutely nobody who has turned out to be any good. This year he has a pair of second place finishes at Oaklawn Park, where he was caught at the wire in the Rebel, and couldn't get by winner <b>Omaha Beach</b> in the Arkansas Derby. More importantly, his speed figures have stagnated as the distances have gotten longer, which isn't a shock because he's out of rank sprinter <b>City Zip</b>. Some people think he's sitting on a big effort for his third start. We disagree - he looks like a miler who would relish a cutback to one turn and is going to get wildly overbet thanks to his connections.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">8. Game Winner. </span></b> (<b>ML:</b> 9-2; <b>VL</b>: 15-1) Last year's 2-year old and Breeders Cup Juvenile champion has lost both of his races this year, but we're not particularly bothered by that because both losses were close seconds to horses that are very good. What has us more concerned is we're not sure he's anything more than a grinder who did well last year because he was precocious. This isn't a Baffert horse with great speed with the ability to rate like <b>Silver Charm</b>, Justify or <b>American Pharoah</b>, or quick acceleration like Real Quiet or Point Given. Game Winner is much more even-paced, and succeeds largely because he doesn't quit - he reminds us of Baffert's 2010 Preakness winner <b>Looking at Lucky</b>. Game Winner basically won the Juvenile last year because he got to longshot <b>Knicks Go</b> at the top of the stretch and maintained his pace while his opponent yielded. That worked against lesser horses. It also may work in longer races: he's exactly the kind of horse we'd like in the Belmont because he would keep cranking out 24.8 second fractions while the rest of the field is spinning its wheels. But this running style cost him both of his races this year: he didn't have a closing punch to get by <b>Omaha Beach</b> in the Rebel, and he had no extra gear to hold off the closer <b>Roadster</b> in the SA Derby<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Longshots du Jour</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">7. War of Will.</span></b> (<b>ML </b>15-1; <b>VL</b>: 35-1) Remember how we crapped on the Louisiana Derby yesterday? Here's the beaten favorite from that race who ran a horrible 9th at 4-5. But there are reasons to look past that race: he broke horribly and stumbled shortly out of the gate, which put him much farther back and wider in the race. That's not War of Will's running style: he wants to be on or near the pace. If he breaks alertly on Saturday, expect to see him near the front prompting the pace, especially since he's drawn the rail and doesn't have much of a choice. He's going to be a nice price, and if the pace is soft, it wouldn't shock us if he hung around for a piece.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">6. Gray Magician.</span></b> (<b>ML </b>50-1; <b>VL</b>: 25-1) The runner-up in the UAE Derby is an unlikely winner but is very live to outrun his odds and inflate the prices in exotic wagers. His US starts were just so-so, but he showed tactical speed and a closing kick in Dubai, and he's bred fine for the distance (his full brother won the Sham last year, a key early Derby prep). He's going to be a huge price on Saturday - we think there's a minor chance he's the longest shot on the board - and don't hesitate to use him underneath.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Contenders</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXA0cPyhtJYYP3Bz9sUr9tfgAOfS_3f8uXxmZFk35uieIY9EtvT-Jo16k_N-0Y_7qW9bfbm287ILEPzEftqJRN1VcHyQ-zdq7dOOW4K54vkaFWR2kt8bVFKq4-szSaF-cahoCnY_5kXooS/s1600/shug.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXA0cPyhtJYYP3Bz9sUr9tfgAOfS_3f8uXxmZFk35uieIY9EtvT-Jo16k_N-0Y_7qW9bfbm287ILEPzEftqJRN1VcHyQ-zdq7dOOW4K54vkaFWR2kt8bVFKq4-szSaF-cahoCnY_5kXooS/s320/shug.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="color: purple;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">5. Code of Honor.</span></b> </span> (<b>ML </b>12-1; <b>VL</b>: 12-1) One of the hardest horses in this race to get a handle on. When he's good, he's really good: he looked phenomenal winning his maiden, ran a great 2nd in the Champagne where he basically fell at the break, and won stylishly in the Fountain of Youth. On the other hand, he completely no-showed in his first start this year, and ran a fairly indifferent 3rd in the Florida Derby. As usual with a Shug McGaughey horse, he's completely bereft of early speed and is at the mercy of the pacesetters, which is part of why he didn't run well in the Florida Derby - it was basically a parade on the front end and he had nothing to close into. Sadly for Shug, we don't see a ton of speed in this race either. And yet, he's training well, and Shug has correctly noted that they've been overcoming obstacles at every turn - this guy was a late scratch in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year with an illness, and had training issues earlier this year too - but have had clear sailing for the last few weeks. He's not at all impossible in the win slot, and is a must use underneath in your exotics.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><b><span style="color: purple;">4. Tacitus.</span><span style="color: #38761d;"> </span></b> </span>(<b>ML</b>: 8-1; <b>VL</b>: 8-1) Bill Mott's second Derby entrant; unlike Country House, he is a prime contender. He's impeccably bred: his father is super sire <b>Tapit </b>and his mother is <b>Close Hatches</b>, who won a slew of Grade 1 races earlier this decade, and he should relish 10 furlongs. His two races this year were both impressive closing victories in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial, and he won the Wood was despite him having traffic trouble early on. Why we've ranked him fifth is we like a few others a little more, and we're skeptical that his dead-closing style is going to work in the Derby, as we don't see a ton of pace for him to close into. Like Code of Honor, he's a contender who may not fit the shape of the race.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">3. Long Range Toddy</span><span style="color: #38761d;">.</span></b> </span> (<b>ML</b>: 30-1; <b>VL</b>: 8-1) If a complete bomb is going to win on Saturday, he's the one we like the most by far. There's no more tried-and-true handicapping angle than playing a horse that was well-regarded in his last race, ran badly on a sloppy track, and is now trying to rebound on a fast track. Handicappers in this scenario will often just say "throw out that last race in the slop." And if you do that here, you find a horse that beat Improbable fair and square in the Rebel, is bred nicely for 10 furlongs, has good tactical speed that should put him in the second flight of horses, and has excellent connections: all that's missing on trainer Steve Asmussen's career resume is a Derby win. That sixth place finish in his last race is a bit of an eyesore and Jon Court isn't our favorite jockey in the world, but don't ignore this horse on Saturday - he's very live at what's going to be a big price. (Note - based on his last race, if it's wet Saturday, which is looking very possible, downgrade his chances.)<br />
<div>
<span style="color: purple;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="color: purple;"><b><span style="color: purple;">2. Roadster.</span></b> </span> (<b>ML</b>: 5-1; <b>VL</b>: 5-1) While Game Winner may be the morning line favorite, we think he'll be the post-time favorite. Baffert said last year that he thinks Roadster is his most talented colt, and the horse has done nothing to prove Baffert wrong. Roadster won his maiden race impressively last year, then ran a decent third in the Del Mar Futurity. Tellingly, he lost that race to Game Winner - who remember, Baffert also trains - and in that race top jockey Mike Smith was on Roadster, not Game Winner. After some time off for an injury and minor surgery (none of which matter here), he won an allowance race handily before turning the tables on Game Winner in the Santa Anita Derby, where he sat 7-8 lengths off the pace and closed impressively to win. And unlike Tacitus, we don't think that this guy needs to close; he has tactical speed that he could use on Saturday to sit just off the front runners. What we're mildly concerned is that he will be just behind our pick, who will get first run on him and maintain that lead in the stretch.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">The Pick</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhywCbXxuqMQnul07c5UNuRKQmMQ93ggIaJ64Ch_-acSXcaY5DX-LQEGePRiIhY3Dgn6l3wQMoNVwPTx5K8ES0pPGE0B63aSNFf0ceDjt8-DZQSMq1YoLm8L5hfFapFBC-iJCoecZ2SlrDI/s1600/VekomaWeaverHeroEclipse.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhywCbXxuqMQnul07c5UNuRKQmMQ93ggIaJ64Ch_-acSXcaY5DX-LQEGePRiIhY3Dgn6l3wQMoNVwPTx5K8ES0pPGE0B63aSNFf0ceDjt8-DZQSMq1YoLm8L5hfFapFBC-iJCoecZ2SlrDI/s400/VekomaWeaverHeroEclipse.jpg" width="400" /></a><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: red;"><b><span style="color: purple;">1. Vekoma.</span></b> </span> </span>(<b>ML</b>: 15-1; <b>VL</b>: 5-1) The Blue Grass Stakes hasn't been a productive Derby prep in a while - while it's had some runners finish in the money (including <b>Good Magic</b> last year), the last Derby winner it produced was <b>Street Sense</b> a dozen years ago. But there are reasons to believe that this guy can buck the trend, as he's legitimately never run a bad race. He won his maiden race and the Nashua Stakes last year, showing talent at a mile. He took a little time off to freshen, and was brought back in the Fountain of Youth, where he ran a sneaky-good third, as he attended close to the suicidal pace and was around late in his first start in 4 1/2 months. (He emerged from the race with the highest "Sheets" number, which is an advance metrics handicapping tool that tries to analyze all aspects of a race including trip and pace.) He moved forward in the Blue Grass by sitting just off the pace, quickening on the turn and winning impressively, albeit over a not-spectacular field.<br />
<br />
The critics have three negatives for Vekoma. The first is his breeding: his sire is <b>Candy Ride</b>, who's perfectly fine, but his damsire is <b>Speightstown</b>, who was a champion sprinter. That doesn't both us at all - Speightstown was out of router <b>Gone West</b>, and has produced multiple horses that have won at 10 furlongs (<b>Seek Again</b>, <b>Haynesfield</b>, <b>Golden Ticket</b>). The second is his physical running style: students of form all believe that his leg action is peculiar and doesn't portend a horse that wants to run fast for two minutes. We're not smart enough evaluators of form to give an answer on this, only to note that this has not been an issue in his first 4 races. Third is the unknown nature of his connections, which to us is backwards. Trainer George Weaver has been one of our favorites for over a decade, but hasn't had much success outside of Saratoga (where he's deadly every summer) because he hasn't had a Big Horse yet. Vekoma might be it. We're picking him to pull off the upset, give Weaver the spotlight he deserves as a top trainer, and finally, give us a square price in the Derby.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">How to Bet</span></i></b><br />
<br />
Our guess is that either Roadster or Game Winner is going to hover around 4-1 at post-time, so if there's a horse you like - be it them, Vekoma, or anyone else - just bet them to win! We say this every year, but sometimes it's easiest to not get cute and just hope that you can get a 400%+ return on investment. We intend to bet Vekoma and Long Range Toddy to win, and play some triples with them and Roadster up top, and use Tacitus, Code of Honor, Gray Magician and maybe Game Winner underneath.<br />
<br />
Good luck and enjoy the race!El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-26065222805416733192019-05-02T08:30:00.000-04:002019-05-02T11:19:12.433-04:002019 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part I: The Others<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbnO4eThQgR_7_i-qdywcA1HkJ5sT06sBlDREIPqcgr0f1DtkTUon29SIkaAzZ3AVf3gxFd-i3tuUt-FVmpHx-qOI6-jAqiy-m3rLbfOtlnFT2LMunMFjPONjkMbIu8RlKxCmhtcMeptFl/s1600/CD1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1600" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbnO4eThQgR_7_i-qdywcA1HkJ5sT06sBlDREIPqcgr0f1DtkTUon29SIkaAzZ3AVf3gxFd-i3tuUt-FVmpHx-qOI6-jAqiy-m3rLbfOtlnFT2LMunMFjPONjkMbIu8RlKxCmhtcMeptFl/s320/CD1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
The dogwoods are blooming, the pollen count is high, and there are funny hats abound. Yes, it's time for the Kentucky Derby, and with it, our annual rite of hubris and disappointment, the GRBG's Kentucky Derby Preview.<br />
<br />
Last year we set a new nadir for stubbornness and stupidity by not only completely tossing <b>Justify</b> -who only went on to win the Triple Crown - but for also picking <b>Mendelssohn</b>, who shipped in from Dubai via Ireland to break slowly and finish DAFL. It was not our finest hour. But we stand by that analysis. We went against Justify because he was bucking a slew of historical rules <i>and </i>was the favorite. We acknowledged he could win, but he's exactly the type of horse we'll pick against every time because there's no parimutuel value in picking him, and because we still think the rules have some applicability (perhaps now they're more "guidelines" than rules). We have adhered to that ethos for over a decade, and were right numerous other times before 2018 - <b>Curlin</b>, <b>Verrazano</b>, and <b>Bodemeister</b> were three examples of horses that looked talented, but had flaws in their profiles, and were going to be short prices, so we didn't pick them. Justify was the time we stuck to our guns and were wrong. It happens. All we can do is move on.<br />
<br />
What's much more annoying about the Derby is that it's become too predictable. As <a href="http://gowanusbaseball.blogspot.com/2017/05/2017-kentucky-derby-preview-part-1.html">we noted</a> in 2017, the favorite used to be an easy toss; it's now an automatic play. The last time a favorite <i>lost</i> was in 2012 when <b>I'll Have Another</b> beat Bodemeister, and even then, the favorite ran second. We maintain this is in large part because the points system gets the hopeless speedballs out of the field and leads to a more formful race.<br />
<br />
But that's only half of it: closers have also become pariahs. In fields that had sprinters carving out crazy opening fractions, the closers were always worth considering - think of <b>Monarchos</b>' last-to-first run in 2001, <b>Street Sense</b> in '07, <b>Mine That Bird</b> and <b>Giacomo's</b> crazy upsets, all of which were fueled by a breackneck pace. Now? The only closer that's won this decade was <b>Orb </b>in 2013, and even then, we had a horse (<b>Palace Malice</b>) freak on the lead because his trainer gave him blinkers for the first time in the Derby and cut quick fractions. Every other winner this decade has had good tactical speed and attended close to the pace, keeping the closers at bay in the stretch.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcMskWKASg0krCiHztNVe6WFGdmlyAhYsG4u3ck8uWresLC4yzn5-FeuIaFn9cIkVVDUKG1KzEEbkq7uk1wur31-odnz59R7GpLJEg9-_-4zpR0Xh0LvPd0T6k_vCQBwkvUxglaVy_8emj/s1600/LC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="427" data-original-width="336" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcMskWKASg0krCiHztNVe6WFGdmlyAhYsG4u3ck8uWresLC4yzn5-FeuIaFn9cIkVVDUKG1KzEEbkq7uk1wur31-odnz59R7GpLJEg9-_-4zpR0Xh0LvPd0T6k_vCQBwkvUxglaVy_8emj/s320/LC.jpg" width="251" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><b>Friend of the blog, voice of the <br />Triple Crown, and great guy, Larry Collmus</b></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
We recognize that we're looking at a 6-year run and extrapolating a trend based on a small sample size. And we also know that each edition of the Kentucky Derby needs to be evaluated on its own merits, and by the strengths and weaknesses of each of the runners. And we're not sure we have a solution: we're not advocating for letting hopeless horses back in the field, nor do we want the track superintendent to start making the track biased towards closers. But we'd be remiss not to notice the recent trends and handicap accordingly.<br />
<br />
Having said all that, let's look at the field for this year's Kentucky Derby. As we do every year, we'll count down the 20 entrants starting with the horses we think are the least likely to win to the most, ending with our pick and some betting advice. For each horse we'll also give you the morning line odds and what we think the "fair value" line is on the horse - that is, the price at which we think the horse becomes a reasonable play. Today we'll look at the bottom half of the field, which is not going to be laden with value plays. As usual, we're assuming the track at Churchill Downs is fast and fair, though as of press time, there is a chance of rain in the forecast.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Pass. Just Pass.</span></i></b><br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></i></b>
<b><span style="color: red;">20. Bodexpress.</span></b> (<b>Morning Line</b>: 30-1; <b>Fair Value Line</b>: 200-1). Originally an also-eligible, he only drew in because morning line favorite <b>Omaha Beach</b> scratched out on Wednesday evening with a trapped epiglottis. (Side note: Omaha Beach was our original pick, and we hated ourselves for taking the favorite. Problem solved!) He's still a maiden and is only in this race because he ran second in the Florida Derby at 78-1, giving him enough points to make the cut. Just because he <i>can</i> run in this race doesn't mean he <i>should</i>. We're also not sure why this guy isn't the longest shot on the board. And we're already regretful we've spent this many words talking about a no-hoper.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b><span style="color: red;">19. Master Fencer.</span></b><span style="color: #38761d;"> </span></span> (<b>ML</b>: 50-1; <b>FVL</b>: 200-1). Over the last couple of years, the Kentucky Derby has tried to make the race a little more international by holding slots open for the winners of certain prep races in Europe and Japan. This is largely a selfish goal - the more overseas horses that run in the Derby, the more people in those countries will bet on the race, which is certainly good for Churchill Downs' coffers. And hey, American racing could use more international exposure, right?<br />
<br />
In any event, Europe isn't sending anyone this year, but Japan is taking up the invitation and sending over this fairly unaccomplished colt who finished 4th and 2nd in two lightly regarded stakes races in Japan, and has given no indication that he's fast enough to compete against America's top three year olds. (Japan had three horses eligible to run with more qualifying points; they all passed.) We're not against him running in the Derby over domestic horses because the horses that are left on the sidelines, frankly, stink: next on the points list is <b>Signalman</b>, who's run 3rd and 7th in his two starts this year; after him is <b>Anothertwistafate</b>, who should be disqualified simply for having such a horrible name. But just because we're fine with Master Fencer being in the race doesn't mean we think he has a chance given that he seems slow and is shipping 8,000 miles to run in a large field that runs in the opposite direction. We just hope that he stays out of everyone else's way, and doesn't add to the chaos of a 20-horse race.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Have Another Julep!</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><b><span style="color: purple;"><span style="color: #38761d;">18. Country House.</span> </span></b> </span>(<b>ML</b>: 30-1; <b>FVL</b>: 100-1) Bill Mott is one of the five best trainers of our lifetime, but the Triple Crown has never been his forte - his only win was <b>Drosselmeyer's</b> head-scratcher in the 2010 Belmont, and he's only run 8 horses in the Derby, none of which have been close to finishing in the money. Something seems to have rekindled his interest in the race recently though: after skipping the Derby for 9 years, Mott ran <b>Hofburg</b> last year, who did nothing, and this year he's got two horses as well. By far the lesser of the two is Country House, who has no tactical speed and hasn't won a single race of note, and drew the 20 post. There's a chance Mott wins his first Derby this year, but it would be a shocker if this plodder did it.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">17.</span><span style="color: #38761d;"> </span><span style="color: #38761d;">Spinoff</span><span style="color: #38761d;">.</span></b> </span> (<b>ML</b>: 30-1; <b>FVL</b>: 100-1) There are about half a dozen traditional Kentucky Derby preps, and part of handicapping the Derby is considering which of those preps were weak and strong, since it'll help you evaluate the quality of the horses exiting them. To us, this year's prep weakling was the Louisiana Derby, which proved nothing except that a series of horses ran counterclockwise in an oval in steamy Louisiana on March 23rd and somebody won. The 4-5 favorite (who we'll discuss later) had a trip from hell and was basically out of the race early on. This lead the race open to chaos, and chaos is what ensued. The slow Country House finished 4th; the marginally faster Spinoff finished 2nd.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">16. Win Win Win.</span></b> (<b>ML</b>: 12-1; <b>FVL</b>: 65-1) We're automatically against this horse for having a horrible name, but his accomplishments aren't doing much for us either. He was competitive in a bunch of races in Maryland, and won a 7 furlong race at Tampa. Once he began running around 2 turns and at longer distances against better company, he got slower. That doesn't augur well for a 10-furlong race around two turns at a major track.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLGYgj67YyCYZUF-szDAnh23kkt9OTLlSu2C6QuIhyphenhyphenDQBhpcF_2Z-GNc0QcuY5pq3l0HTp-HWS2qmNWwgL8M3tQf-C2oAQ7atcoyINXyglAUp8XzORs4qn41tCJKLlKUJBsB2S9TdTwNSG/s1600/gate-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="721" data-original-width="1205" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLGYgj67YyCYZUF-szDAnh23kkt9OTLlSu2C6QuIhyphenhyphenDQBhpcF_2Z-GNc0QcuY5pq3l0HTp-HWS2qmNWwgL8M3tQf-C2oAQ7atcoyINXyglAUp8XzORs4qn41tCJKLlKUJBsB2S9TdTwNSG/s320/gate-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<b><span style="color: purple;">15. Tax.</span></b> (<b>ML</b>: 20-1; <b>FVL</b>: 65-1) This horse is extremely well-bred: his sire is the blue-blooded <b>Arch</b>, his dam's dam is the regally bred <b>Yell</b>, who ran 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks. So why did Claiborne Farm - the grand dame of breeders - never take Tax seriously and enter him in two maiden claiming races, when it meant they could lose him (which they did)? Presumably because they didn't think he was particularly good or sound. In fairness they probably did make a mistake, as he's turned into a serviceable horse, with a win in the Withers and non-threatening seconds in the Wood and Remsen. But we have a hard time seeing a horse that Claiborne discarded winning America's biggest race.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">14. </span><span style="color: #38761d;"> </span><span style="color: #38761d;">Haikal</span><span style="color: #38761d;">.</span></b> </span> (<b>ML</b>: 30-1; <b>FVL</b>: 50-1) Your quintessential dead closer who won the Gotham when the race completely fell apart. Even with that, he could only muster 3rd place in the Wood Memorial even with a pace meltdown. Since we're not predicting a suicidal pace in this race, and there are other closers we think have more upside, we'll move on.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">The Wrong Prep Winners</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">13. Plus Que Parfait.</span></b> (<b>ML</b>: 30-1; <b>FVL</b>: 50-1) In his first two starts this year, he ran a non-threatening 5th in the Lecomte and a horrendous 13th in the Risen Star. Knowing this horse was overmatched in the States, his trainer wisely sent him to Dubai for the UAE Derby, where a purse of $2.5 million and inferior competition beckoned. That decision panned out well, as he won and has now banked nearly $1.6 million. Mind you, he was patently unimpressive in winning, as he had a perfect trip and held on for dear life in the final furlong against a horse with a much worse trip. That fattened his checkbook, but doesn't change that he's pretty evidently a cut below the others.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">12. Cutting Humor.</span> </b> (<b>ML</b>: 30-1; <b>FVL </b>50-1) This year's winner of the Sunland Derby, a race that has only produced two relevant runners in Kentucky Derby history. The first was 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird, who was 50-1, should have been 500-1, and from whom no historical trends should be drawn. The second was <b>Firing Line</b>, who trainer Simon Callaghan sent to the Sunland Derby because he wanted an easy prep race and to avoid behemoths <b>American Pharoah</b> and <b>Dortmund</b>. Everyone knew before the race that Firing Line was one of the 5 best horses in training, and he validated it by romping in the Sunland Derby and running 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. That's not who usually runs in the Sunland Derby, it's ordinarily Grade 3 horses looking for a check and an excuse to get Derby tickets. That pretty much exactly who Cutting Humor is.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>11. By My Standards.</b> </span>(<b>ML</b>: 15-1; <b>FVL</b>: 40-1) Remember how we said the Louisiana Derby was basically a race won by default? Here's who won it. And we're calling B.S. on how high that last speed figure was.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">10. Maximum Security. </span></b> (<b>ML</b>: 8-1; <b>FVL</b>: 30-1) The Florida Derby winner is undefeated in four starts, has gotten faster with extra distance, and going to take a lot of money on Saturday. And we're squarely against him for a multitude of reasons. First, we don't love horses that have never shipped before. Given that he's undefeated there, we know he loves Gulfstream Park, but are just guessing if he likes literally any other racetrack on Earth. Second, we are unconvinced that this guy is anywhere near as good as his last two speed figures indicate. His penultimate win was in an allowance race at 7 furlongs against a bunch of nobodies. The Florida Derby fell into his lap as the other speed horse (<b>Hidden Scroll</b>) didn't go to the front, allowing Maximum Security to waltz through slow fractions and have plenty left for the stretch. That's not going to happen Saturday - we don't see a breakneck pace, but he's not getting a series of 24-second quarter-miles either.<br />
<br />
Third, we're not on the Jason Servis bandwagon, who bizarrely, went from being a fairly anonymous trainer to the trainer with the highest winning percentage in America. But even that's mostly with lesser horses; the only two "good" horses in his barn are sprinter <b>World of Trouble</b> and this guy. We know anonymous trainers from minor tracks have proven us wrong in the past - heck, his brother John Servis won the Derby with <b>Smarty Jones</b> and has been on a milk carton since then. But Smarty Jones was a talented colt who peaked at the right time against a weak class. Maximum Security has two nice races to his credit, both of which are easy to wave off. We're expecting a regression from this horse on Saturday, followed by a long vacation.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Coming up tomorrow</span></b>: Our Top 9, including our pick and wagering advice.El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-61378395907498764792018-11-02T18:43:00.003-04:002018-11-02T18:43:24.111-04:002018 Breeders Cup Preview Part 2: Saturday's Races<div>
Now THAT'S more like it - we picked three winners on Friday's card, and tapped Jaywalk as someone with a big shot. So let's get right back on the horse - there are nine races to get through, so let's jump right in with more tremendous opinions.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Filly and Mare Sprint</span></u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Synopsis</span></b>: 7 furlongs on the dirt for the ladies. Somehow this race has become the one we've picked the best over the last few years. We tabbed winners <b>Judy the Beauty</b> ('14) and <b>Wavell Avenue</b> ('15) - the latter at 13-1. Two years ago we picked <b>Finest City</b> for second; she won at 9-1. Last year we went out on limb with <b>Ami's Mesa</b>, she lost by a nose at 18-1 (to <b>Bar of Gold</b>, who was 70-1 and we noted was interesting). This probably means our picks will run 8th, 9th and 12th.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Favorite</span></b>: He only has horses in 3 races on Saturday, but Bob Baffert looks to get the day started off with a winner in deserving favorite <b>Marley's Freedom</b>, who exits and easy victory in the Ballerina at 7 furlongs. She's had a solid season, but really went to another level when Baffert took over her training mid-season and then rattled off three wins. Ignore at your own risk.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: Price play <b>Miss Sunset</b> may get forgotten in the wagering but isn't without a chance. She's 2-for-4 at the 7 furlong distance and a key requirement in this race is success at the distance. Her start earlier this year at Keeneland where she was nosed out by <b>Finleysluckycharm </b>(who's also here, and will be half the price) would make her competitive if the favorite falters.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Betting Strategy</span></b>: Either single or spread, depending on how much you like Marley's Freedom. We are not at all interested in second-choice <b>Selcourt</b>, who's coming into the race off a 7 1/2 month layoff. She drew the rail and is going to have to gun from there if she wants to have any chance, and we think that'll set her up to get fried by the other speedballs. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Picks</span></b>: We're inclined to stick with the favorite and go hunting for some prices underneath. In addition to our longshot du jour, we have some interest in <b>Highway Star</b>, who likes the distance and is getting a nice jockey upgrade, and <b>Skye Diamonds</b>, solely from a pace perspective. But we think the day gets started off with some chalk.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. Marley's Freedom</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">2. Miss Sunset</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">3. Highway Star</span></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u><span style="color: #38761d;">Turf Sprint</span></u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Synopsis</span></b>: 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf for all comers. Try to get us excited about this race. You've already failed. This half hour will almost certainly be used by us to pick up lunch.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Favorite</span></b>: <b>Stormy Liberal</b> won this race last year at 30-1 and will be a lot shorter price this year, as he's won 3 straight coming into this race. He looks legitimate, but we're concerned that the expected soft turf won't be to his liking. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: We originally were going to have <b>Will Call</b> as one of our picks because he likes the track and the distance, but he seems to want harder turf. Hmm. If you want a really fun horse to root for, <b>Lost Treasure</b> is a 3 year old running for the 5th time in 5 weeks and 8th time since late August. That's not a misprint.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Betting Strategy</span></b>: Spread. We'll say it for the umpteenth time: in this race, it's always spread.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Picks</span></b>: Without a ton of confidence, we'll focus on Stormy Liberal, as well as <b>Chanteline</b>, who's got a good record at the distance, improving 3 year old <b>World of Trouble</b>, and the ageless <b>Rainbow Heir</b>. We'll use <b>Disco Partner</b> and <b>Hembree </b>defensively only: both want a little longer but are probably the most talented horses in the field. Really, don't go too nuts on this silly race.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">1. Chanteline</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">2. World of Trouble</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">3. Stormy Liberal</span></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Dirt Mile</span></u></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b><u><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
<div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Synopsis</span></b>: 1 mile on the dirt for anyone interested. We generally crap on this race, but like it a little better when it's at Churchill Downs because it's a one-turn mile, rather than a two-turn race. That makes it a lot more interesting for both stretch-outs and turnbackers, and this year we actually have a mildly interesting field.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Favorite</span></b>: A lot of people consider the undefeated <b>Catalina Cruiser</b> to be the lock of the weekend. We're definitely not in that camp. He's got a shot, sure, but he's only run 4 times in his career (which only started as a 4-year old, proving he's not a picture of soundness), he's never left California or faced this caliber of horses, and his trainer is 0-for-41 in Breeders Cup races. That's not someone we want to bet at even money.</div>
<div>
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: We have two: <b>Seven Trumpets</b> and Triple Crown veteran <b>Bravazo</b>. The former has run pretty well in one-turn races and stretches out from a good 3rd in the Gallant Bob, where he was running on a dead rail. Bravazo is turning back from routes and that's an angle we like a lot in 1-turn miles. Both should be around 15-1 and aren't impossible.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Betting Strategy</span></b>: Narrow. We endorse using Catalina Cruiser defensively, and like our longshots more underneath than up top. We do give <b>Firenze Fire</b> a shot to win as we think he'll like a 1-turn mile, but ultimately think he'll lose to...</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Picks</span></b>: <b>City of Light</b> is someone we've been excited to bet for a while and will be a fulcrum of our Saturday wagering. He's had a really good year, starting with 2 wins in California (a December 26 race is considered "this year" by us) around 1 turn. He then tried a distance at Oaklawn, where he beat Accelerate and looked great. He flopped at 10 furlongs, so he shipped to Saratoga for the 7 furlong Forego, where he had a bad trip and finished a good 2nd to <b>Whitmore</b>, who loves the distance and the track and got a better trip. Trainer Mike McCarthy (who's pretty good) has been pointing him for this race all year and he's working out well to get here. So yes, our best bet is in this race. It's just not with the horse other people are picking.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. City of Light</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">2. Firenze Fire</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">3. Seven Trumpets</span></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u><span style="color: #38761d;">Filly and Mare Turf</span></u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>Synopsis</b>:</span> 1 3/8 miles on the turf for the ladies. They have run this race 19 times, and 4 trainers - Chad Brown, Bobby Frankel, Sir Michael Stoute and Ed Dunlop - have accounted for 10 of the wins. Since Frankel is no longer with us and Stoute and Dunlop are sitting this year out, it should be a piece of cake to handicap this race right? Wrong.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Favorite</span></b>: The aforementioned Chad Brown has <i>five</i> horses entered in this race, including the favorite <b>Sistercharlie</b>. She's 3-for-4 this year with her only loss being by a head in the New York Handicap, where she lost the race by jockey error, not lack of talent. She's legitimately really good. The only issue with her is that she missed her prep race in October because she missed training time with a bruised foot, but supposedly, she's fine now.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>Interesting Longshot</b>:</span> We don't love that she's in the 13 post, but Dermot Weld's <b>Eziyra </b>is interesting to us. She has repeated success at 12 furlongs (1 furlong longer than this race) and was a solid 3rd to <b>Sea of Class</b> two races back. If Sea of Class was in this race, she'd be an even money favorite.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>Betting Strategy</b>:</span> Spread. We don't think you need to consider all 5 of Chad Brown's horses: <b>Thais </b>appears to be in here for pace purposes only, <b>Santa Monica</b> is clearly his 3rd stringer, and <b>A Raving Beauty</b> is a miler that doesn't look like she'll appreciate the distance. That said, don't ignore <b>Fourstar Crook</b>, who's pretty good in her own right.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Picks</span></b>: We originally had Aiden O'Brien's <b>Magic Wand</b> as our pick, but the fact it's going to be soft turf on Saturday made us reconsider, as she seems to prefer firm. We'll only use her defensively, as well as <b>Wild Illusion</b>, who's very competitive and will like a softer going, but we think wants it a little shorter. To hell with it, we'll go with our longshot on top.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">1. Eziyra</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">2. Wild Illusion</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">3. Sistercharlie</span></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Sprint</span></u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Synopsis</span></b>: 6 furlongs on the dirt for the fast and furious. In good news, they've bumped the purse back to $2 million. Now if they would only decrease the purse in the Dirt Mile and Filly Sprint to try to actually get the best sprinters in the same race, we'd be on to something. Because a field of 9 does not get our juices flowing. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Favorite</span></b>: It'll either by defending champion <b>Roy H </b>or <b>Imperial Hint</b>, who ran second in this race last year. Both look solid but vulnerable: Roy H hasn't quite run back to last year's form but hasn't been horrible, while Imperial Hint has only lost once this year, but it was at Churchill Downs (albeit on the slop). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: Blech. While we're not in love with the favorites, none of the horses that figure to be over 10-1 do much for us either. I guess we'll side with <b>B Squared</b>, who is turning back to six furlongs and has some interesting 6 furlong races in his past.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="color: red;"><b><span style="color: blue;">Betting Strategy</span></b><span style="color: red;">:</span></span> Spread. A big question in this race is how much you think "horse for the course" matters, as Imperial Hint has run badly twice at Churchill Downs, while <b>Limousine Liberal</b> has 6 wins in 8 starts at Churchill. We're not in love with the latter as we think he's really a 7 furlong horse, and if history has taught us anything in this race, it's to focus on horses that are 6-furlong specialists.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="color: red;"><b><span style="color: blue;">Picks</span></b><span style="color: red;">: </span></span>Another truism in this race is to favor horses with early speed rather than dead closers. While you would think that all the front runners would perpetually set things up for a closer, in the last 20 years, only 3 horses have won this race when more than 4 lengths off the pace after a quarter mile (two of which were <b>Midnight Lute's</b> back to back wins). So while we'll use good closer <b>Whitmore </b>underneath, we won't put him on top. Of the speed horses, we like 3 year old <b>Promises Fulfilled</b> the most, as we think he still has upside and can keep going on the lead for 6 furlongs even if other horses bother him. He's our pick for a minor upset.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. Promises Fulfilled</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">2. Imperial Hint</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">3. Whitmore</span></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u><span style="color: #38761d;">Mile</span></u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Synopsis</span></b>: 1 mile on the turf for anyone interested. This remains our favorite Breeders Cup race, and this year, it's the starting point of the late pick four, which is also our favorite bet of the year. So it's kinda important to get this right for parimutuel purposes.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Favorite</span></b>: While American horses have recently been the way to go in this race - 6 of the last 7 winners were American, we think favoritism lands on European <b>Expert Eye</b>. (It would have been <b>Polydream</b>, but she was a controversial vet's scratch Friday morning.) There are some things to like here, as Sir Michael Stoute is a great trainer and he's well-bred. What troubles us more is that he's never won at a flat mile. There has literally <i>never</i> been a horse win this race without a win at a mile on the turf.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: It's rare that a horse with the highest last-out speed figure is a longshot, but <b>Next Shares</b> is going to be at least 12-1 (and possibly much longer) despite posting the highest Gowanus Speed Figure last out. After having a fairly undistinguished career, something woke up 2 races ago where he won at Kentucky Downs, followed by winning the Shadwell at Keeneland at 23-1. He does have success at a mile and is in good form, so maybe?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Betting Strategy</span></b>: Spread. This is as wide-open as we've seen the race in a while: we don't love the favorite, and we don't think the longshots are out of it. We're playing the Pick Four and seriously contemplating using 8 horses.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Picks</span></b>: Historically, two of the key angles in this race have been picking horses with multiple wins at a turf mile and those exiting a sharp prep race. This actually narrows down the field quite a bit, and knocks out some shorter priced horses like <b>Expert Eye</b> (winless at the distance), <b>Gustav Klimt </b>(ditto), <b>Happily</b> (no wins this year), and <b>Analyze It</b> (bad 4th in last). We may use them defensively, but we're more focused on <b>Oscar Performance</b>, who's undefeated at a mile (including winning the Juvenile Turf 2 years ago), <b>Mustashry</b>, who loves a mile and is in good form (albeit against lesser company), and <b>I Can Fly</b>, who almost beat <b>Roaring Lion</b> in her last (he would probably be the favorite here). Gun to our head, we'll take Aiden O'Brien's horse, even though somehow, he's never won this race.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">1. I Can Fly</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">2. Mustashry</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">3. Oscar Performance</span></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Distaff</span></u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Synopsis</span></b>: 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for the women. And finally, the Distaff is back to Saturday! That only took a decade. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Favorite</span></b>: <b>Monomoy Girl</b> has made 10 starts and has never been out of the exacta. In fact, she's only lost twice: by a neck in her last race last year, and in the Cotillion her prep race for the Distaff, where she was disqualified after drifting and blocking <b>Midnight Bisou</b>. She's a lot of fun and looks tough here at a short price.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: <b>La Force</b> has only won twice in 22 starts, but we have interest in her as a bomb to hit the board. She's a dead closer who's clunked up for 3rd in her last three races and should have a decent pace to run at. We're also of the opinion that closers are usually at a disadvantage in California - where La Force ran every one of her US races - whereas in Kentucky, they get a much fairer shake.<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Betting Strategy</span></b>: Narrow. Of the horses under 10-1 on the morning line, we have no interest in <b>Wow Cat</b> or <b>Blue Prize</b>, who we think are pure second-tier horses, and are generally against <b>Abel Tasman</b>, who ran horribly in her last.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Picks</span></b>: We've narrowed this down to three horses: Monomoy Girl, La Force, and Midnight Bisou, who was Monomoy Girl's nemesis this year and only beat her by DQ in the Cotillion. While we'd use all three in our Pick-Somethings, we're going to stick with the favorite here and our goofy longshot to finish the exacta.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. Monomoy Girl</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">2. La Force</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">3. Midnight Bisou</span></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u><span style="color: #38761d;">Turf</span></u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Synopsis</span></b>: 1 1/2 miles on the turf for anyone long-winded enough to try. Since <b>Buck's Boy</b> wired the field in 1998, we've had 20 winners of the Turf (there was a dead heat in '03), with 16 of the winners being imports from Europe, and one of the other 4 being a European who campaigned in the US (Main Sequence). What's also remarkable is that favorites have been a <i>horrible</i> bet in this race: the last favorite to win was <b>Conduit</b> repeating in 2009. Time and time again, the "other" European has been the successful bet - think of <b>Red Rocks</b>, <b>Shirocco</b>, <b>Dangerous Midge</b>, <b>Magician</b>, and of course, last year's winner <b>Talismanic</b> (who's back this year).<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Favorite</span></b>: Possibly the biggest favorite of the weekend is going to be <b>Enable</b>, who won the Arc de Triomphe in Paris this year <i>and</i> last year. As we've said before and you'll see a billion times, no Arc winner has ever won the Breeders Cup Turf and many have tried. Plenty of people think this is the year that "curse" ends, in part because it's only Enable's 3rd start of the year, so she's presumably not over the top. We're certainly not going to advocate tossing her, but we do note that even money is a short price to take on a horse that's trying to do something other excellent horses have tried to do and failed.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: Despite all the above admonitions against betting American horses, we have a little interest in <b>Robert Bruce</b>, who won the Arlington Million earlier this year and goes out for super-trainer Chad Brown. He ran a blah second in the Hirsch last out, but that was over a bog-like turf in a paceless race. If it was simply the result of not liking the surface (and we note he lost his other start at Belmont earlier in the year) and not having someone to run at, he's kinda sorta interesting at around 15-1.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Betting Strategy</span></b>: Narrow. While we respect her, we are not going to single Enable. We heard the exact same plaudits about <b>Golden Horn</b> 3 years ago (who was also trained by John Gosden) who came over after a great year and a good win in the Arc. He ran a solid second to Aiden O'Brien's three-year-old filly <b>Found</b>, who Golden Horn had beaten in the Arc four weeks earlier, and who had a productive start in between in the Champions Stakes. This year, O'Brien has entered the three-year-old filly <b>Magical</b>, who lost in the Arc and just won the Champions Stakes. Hmmm....</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Picks</span></b>: The other Arc "also ran" that looks imposing is <b>Waldgeist</b>, who ran a solid 4th when he had some traffic trouble. That broke his 4-race win streak, but we liked that he had tactical speed and was barely beaten by Enable, who actually almost loss the race late to Sea of Class. In any other year, Waldgeist would be a solid favorite. Here? He's going to get slightly overlooked and we think will be excellent value at around 5-1. We like him to turn the tables in a mild upset.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">1. Waldgeist</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">2. Enable</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">3. Robert Bruce</span></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Classic</span></u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Synopsis</span></b>: 1 1/4 miles on the dirt for three year olds and up. Once again, we're not blowing this race out this year because of time constraints. What is nice is that there's no dominating favorite this year, making it a nice puzzle and betting race to close out the Breeders Cup.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Favorite</span></b>: In a year where we didn't have a Triple Crown winner, <b>Accelerate</b> would be way ahead of the field for Horse of the Year: he's only lost once this year, he swept the California Grade 1's for older horses, and has won just shy of $2 million. He's been handled perfectly by John Sadler: he was an after-thought in the Dirt Mile two years ago, and has stretched out and blossomed as a 5 year old, and is a worthy favorite. And with all that being said...we're going to try to beat him because we think he's over the top, has been beating up on lesser horses all year, and doesn't like to leave California. He reminds us of <b>Lava Man</b>, who had a great year in California in 2006. When he went to Kentucky for the Breeders Cup, he was nowhere to be found.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: We're probably going to look like idiots once again but...we're interested in <b>Mendelssohn </b>at a price. Yes, the same Mendelssohn we picked to win the Derby and picked DAFL. Since then he's had a bad Dwyer Stakes, followed by a good second in the Travers and a sneaky-good third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where he got into a suicidal pace duel with the talented <b>Diversify</b> but still only lost by 2 lengths. He has the controlling early speed. The question is whether he'll get fried again or if he can wire the field. A tall order, but if he's 12-1 or higher, we'll take a stab that he can do it.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Betting Strategy</span></b>: Relatively narrow. We're not in love with <b>Catholic Boy</b>, who we acknowledge beat Mendelssohn in the Travers, but had a perfect trip and we think just isn't fast enough. <b>Roaring Lion</b> is making his dirt debut here and has the look of a trainer taking a free roll; we'll pass. <b>Thunder Snow</b> looked a little interesting until he drew the rail; he probably has to get sent to the lead from there and we think that's not going to be his best style. <b>Yoshida's</b> not impossible as he might get a perfect trip, but the field he beat in the Woodward was atrocious. And we're just not seeing <b>Mind Your Biscuits</b> at 10 furlongs. He should be in the Sprint or Dirt Mile.<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Picks</span></b>: One reason we weren't in love with <b>Justify</b> was that we were convinced that the best 3 year old in Bob Baffert's barn was <b>McKinzie</b>, who was a Grade 1 in his second race (albeit by DQ), then won the Sham with ease, and crossed the finish line first in the San Felipe against Bolt d'Oro, only to be DQ'd on a bump. He came out of that race injured so he missed the Triple Crown, and got to watch Justify make history. But Baffert kept brought him back in the Pennsylvania Derby, where he won with ease. Yes, he's never taken on older horses before, but we don't think this is a stellar field, and think his biggest competition is stablemate <b>West Coast</b>, who also is making his second start off the layoff. We think they duel down the stretch, and McKinzie edges out West Coast giving Baffert his 4th Classic win in 5 years.<br />
<b><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. McKinzie</span></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">2. West Coast</span></b></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">3. Mendelssohn</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></b>
Good luck and enjoy the races!!!</div>
El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-22684848876994632112018-11-01T22:23:00.000-04:002018-11-01T22:23:38.355-04:002018 Breeders Cup Preview Part I: Friday's RacesYep, it's November, which means it's time for our annual rite of hubris and embarrassment: our Breeders Cup preview! <br />
<br />
Last year we took a pathetic goose egg on all 13 races, thanks to <b>Ami's Mesa</b> being nosed out at the odds of 18-1. Grrr. Still, there were ways to get to good results from our picks: we had the trifecta for the Juvenile (albeit in the wrong order), and four horses we picked to run second won (<b>Roy H</b>, <b>Gun Runner</b>, <b>Forever Unbridled</b>, <b>Good Magic</b>). The key as always is to be flexible and use our analysis as a jumping off point.<br />
<br />
Let's get to Friday's card. Ten years ago, <a href="http://gowanusbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/09/breeders-cup-2008-preview-part-i.html">we noted</a> that having the Distaff on Friday was stupid and should be abandoned. In 2011, <a href="http://gowanusbaseball.blogspot.com/2011/10/2011-breeders-cup-preview-part-ii.html">we suggested</a> they try an all Juvenile Friday. Finally, they listened to us, and we have a Friday card laden with races for two year olds. Given the paucity of races these steeds have run, it's going to make things a little tricky to handicap, but that's not going to stop us. As usual, we'll break down what the race is about, the favorite, a price horse we like, how we think you should approach the race, and our picks. We're assuming a fast track but a soft turf as Kentucky received a ton of rain this week.<br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: #38761d;">Juvenile Turf Sprint</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Synopsis</span></b>: 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf for 2 year olds. This is the newest Breeders Cup race, brought after the experiments of the Marathon and the Juvenile Sprint failed. They drew a full field for this race, which I suppose is good?<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Favorite</span></b>: We think there will be a lot of horses clustered around the 4-1 range, but we'd guess Aiden O'Brien's <b>Sergei Prokofiev</b> will get favoritism status, based on his win at 5 furlongs last out. Plus he cost $1.1 million. The fact he's running in an ungraded stakes race makes us believe the connections aren't thrilled with his development so far, but whatever.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: Wesley Ward, who's great with turf sprinters and not much else, has 4 (!) of the 12 horses in this race. We actually have a little interest in what's likely to be the longest price of all his horses, <b>Stillwater Cove</b>, who ran in a Grade 1 at Woodbine last out and was in front after 6 furlongs, only to fade. Lucky for her, that's as far as she needs to run in this race.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Betting Approach</span></b>: Spread. You're talking about a race that will take 58 seconds over the turf and involves maturing juveniles and has never been run before. If you have great conviction in your selections, we'd like some of whatever you're drinking.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Picks</span></b>: The turf races recently have been dominated by O'Brien, Chad Brown, and Michael Stoute. The last two don't have anyone running here, so let's go with O'Brien's horses and see what happens.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">1. So Perfect</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">2. Sergei Prokofiev</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">3. Stillwater Cove </span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Juvenile Fillies Turf</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Synopsis</span></b>: 1 mile on the turf for 2 year old fillies. Americans have done very well in this race, winning 8 of 10 editions, including the last 5. Chad Brown in particular has become the dominating force, winning 4 of those heats, including 3 of the last 4. Speaking of which...<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Favorite</span></b>: The nicely-bred <b>Newspaperofrecord</b> has run twice, won twice, and done it by a combined 12 1/2 lengths. Also, both starts were over soft turf and that's what she'll get on Friday. She figures to be one of the biggest favorites all weekend.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: <b>East</b> has a terrible post (14) and hasn't been keeping good company, but is out of superhorse Frankel and a well-bred (if unaccomplished) dam. She'll probably be completely forgotten in the betting, but maybe she can close late for a piece.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Betting Approach</span></b>: Single. We're not getting too cute here.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Picks</span></b>: We'll stick with the favorite on top but try to inject some value underneath. <b>Varenka</b> is still a maiden but has run 3 really good races for Graham Motion (who we always like on the turf) and may get a nice trip on the soft going. We're also curious about the terribly named <b>The Mackem Bullet</b>, who has two nice starts in a row against lesser in Europe. But we think Newspaperofrecord may be something special; we're looking forward to seeing her run.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. Newspaperofrecord</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">2. Varenka</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">3. East</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: #38761d;">Juvenile Fillies</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Synopsis</span></b>: 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2 year old fillies. This used to be the chalkiest race year after year, but we've had 4 bombs in the last 5 years (with Songbird in the middle). Watch it now return to a favorite parade.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Favorite</span></b>: <b>Bellafina</b> comes in with three straight wins by open lengths in California. She looks good but we're a little skeptical - she drifted around in the stretch her last two starts. That could mean she was running out of gas and/or is immature, which we don't love, especially since she's starting from the 10 post on a short run to the first turn. Of course, it could be a lot simpler and just mean she was bored.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: Meh. Nobody's really jumping out at us, as we think the horses that will be under 10-1 are the cream of the crop. Maybe <b>Reflect</b> likes the jockey change to Irad Ortiz and moves forward?<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Betting Strategy</span></b>: Narrow. As noted, we don't think you need to go too deep here to find the winner. <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Picks</span></b>: Sticking with the shorter priced horses, plenty will back Serengeti Express because she's won her last two starts by a combined 33 lengths. That's impressive, but we can't get past the fact that she was absolutely terrible at Saratoga earlier this year, and wonder if those wins were just over bad horses. <b>Jaywalk</b> really intrigues us in part because we love his sire on the come (Cross Traffic) but think she's a smidge behind the favorite and Restless Rider, who we know loves the track as she has two wins over it. We'll go with her over the shipper.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">1. Restless Rider</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">2. Bellafina</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">3. Jaywalk</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Juvenile Turf</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Synopsis</span></b>: 1 mile on the turf for 2 year old boys. Remember how we were saying Americans do well in the filly version of this? The opposite is true here. Oscar Performance and Pluck were the only two domestics to win, and most years, it hasn't been particularly close.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Favorite</span></b>: He has a brutally bad post, but <b>Anthony Van Dyck</b> has the precise profile of prior JT winners: competitive at Grade 1s in Europe (a 2nd and 3rd in his last two), well-bred, and now taking on more suspect competition. That's pretty much exactly what Mendelssohn, Wrote, Outstrip and George Vancouver did before winning this race. <br />
<br />
<b>Interesting Longshot</b>: Beaten favorites are always horses we like to examine, and <b>Opry</b> fits that to a tee. He went off at 8-5 in the Pilgrim and never really made up ground in the stretch in a somewhat paceless race. If they run a little quicker here early on (likely), he may have something to close into.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Betting Strategy</span></b>: Narrow. Again, use an American on top at your own peril.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Picks</span></b>: Had he drawn better, we would simply single Anthony Van Dyck and move on to more pressing issues. But that 14 post scares us. We'll use him, but prefer the well-bred <b>Line of Duty</b>, who's oddly <i>cutting back</i> in distance for this race, and is here with the same connections as last year's F&M Turf winner Wuheida. We like him to pull off a minor upset (we don't think you're getting anywhere near his 10-1 morning line, sorry).<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. Line of Duty</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">2. Opry</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">3. Anthony Van Dyck</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: #38761d;">Juvenile</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Synopsis</span></b>: 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2 year old colts. This race is really competitive and interesting; possibly the most compelling race the entire weekend. Let's get to it.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Favorite</span>: </b>It wouldn't be a proper Juvenile without Bob Baffert training an imposing creature, and this year, we give you <b>Game Winner</b>. He's nicely-bred, 3-for-3 with wins at 6, 7 and 8 1/2 furlongs, and a win around two turns. So far, we haven't seen a single flaw in this horse.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Second Choice</span></b>: <b>Complexity</b> won the Champagne in wire-to-wire fashion for Chad Brown, who won this race last year with Good Magic. He's dominated two races on the front end, and while he's put up big numbers, he's never really been challenged either. We're a little skeptical while admitting this was precisely the reason we were skeptical of Justify all spring, and that worked out great.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Our Boy!:</span></b> Hall of Famer and personal favorite trainer Shug McGaughey hasn't had a starter in this race in 17 years (when he ran the execrable Saarland). But he's back with <b>Code of Honor</b>! This colt ran well in his first start, wiring the field at Saratoga for a solid win. When a Shug horse shows early speed and wins at a sprint distance, you should pay complete attention, because that's generally the antithesis of his style. Shug ambitiously placed him in the Champagne, where he broke terribly, was left at the back of the field, only to gather himself and close to a good second to Complexity. Our bias acknowledged, we think he's the horse out of the Champagne to watch.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Interesting Longshot</span></b>: He's going to be completely lost in the shuffle, but don't lose sight of Chad Brown's "other" horse, <b>Standard Deviation</b>. He was the second choice in the Breeders Futurity when he broke so-so from the outside, was 7 wide on both turns, and tried to close at Keeneland, which is usually the kiss of death. He finished third but was running hard throughout. We think he's sitting on a big race at a bigger price, and love that he adds blinkers.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">Betting Strategy</span></b>: Narrow. No, we're not buying <b>Knicks Go</b>, who won his prep race at a mere 71-1. Nor are we interested in <b>Well Defined</b>, who dominated two state-bred races. Those horses rarely compete in this race. <b>Gunmetal Gray</b> isn't impossible but from the 12 post, we think he'll either have to run to the lead (which isn't his game) or will be stuck wide and in trouble.<br />
<br />
<b>Picks: </b>Man, this one's tough, as we think all four of the horses we've cited above can win it. Gun to our head, we'll stick with Game Winner, who's shown no flaws so far and is in good hands. We'll slightly downgrade Complexity simply because we think he's going to get pressured on the front end, and because his stablemate will be 8 times the price with not much worse a chance. Just enjoy this race, it's a great finale to the day.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">1. Game Winner</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">2. Code of Honor</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">3. Standard Deviation</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">Coming up later: Saturday's Picks.</span></b>El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-31265649711171559642018-07-26T11:41:00.003-04:002018-07-26T11:41:29.950-04:00Justify's Place in HistoryFebruary 7, 2004 was a regular day of Saturday racing at Santa Anita Park - some claimers, a couple of maiden and allowance races, and two stakes races. The third race was the Grade 3 San Vincente Stakes, where Doug O'Neill and Bob Baffert had strong entries. Both lost to <b>Imperialism</b>, who was 11-1 and turned out to have a successful career as a sprinter. <br />
<br />
Three races later on the card was a maiden race for three year olds, where the well-regarded and well-bred <b>Storm Pilot </b>was the 2-5 favorite off a good start a month earlier. He finished second behind a complete buzzsaw trained by the relatively unknown Jason Orman: first time starter <b>Rock Hard Ten</b>, who was an enormous animal and thoroughly dominated the race. It was one of those maiden wins that got everyone's attention, and made Rock Hard Ten something of a wiseguy horse. Rock Hard Ten returned a month later, and this time sitting off the pace, easily won a 1-mile allowance race, beating a talented and well-meant Bob Baffert horse. Clearly, this was a horse to watch.<br />
<br />
Based on those strong victories, Rock Hard Ten's owners pushed him into the Santa Anita Derby with the hope of running him in the Kentucky Derby in his next start. At the time, this was seen by many as crazy: the horse had 2 starts, and had started running in early February. The ghosts of Apollo loomed large, as did all of the other Derby rules. Regardless, he was sent off as the third choice in the Santa Anita Derby, where he ran well, but finished second to 30-1 shot Castledale, and was disqualified to third for interfering with Imperialism. A fine and impressive start, but not the kind that portends immortality.<br />
<br />
His third place finished meant he couldn't run in the Derby as he didn't have enough earnings, so he waited for the Preakness, where Derby winner <b>Smarty Jones</b> awaited. Rock Hard Ten ran well...and finished second to Smarty Jones, losing by over 10 lengths. A fifth-place finish in the Belmont followed, leaving many to believe that Rock Hard Ten was overrated. That turned out to be unfair: he bombed in the Haskell, but did win the Swaps, plus the Malibu and Santa Anita Handicap, both Grade 1s. He was one of the pre-race favorites for the 2005 Breeders Cup Classic the following fall off his win in the Goodwood Stakes, and we would have keyed him in all our bets that day. Sadly, a foot injury lead to his retirement.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: center; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: center; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
* * *</div>
</div>
<br />
We write about Rock Hard Ten because he's the first horse that came to mind when <b>Justify </b>retired yesterday, as it offers some perspective on just how much Justify overcame this winter and spring. Both horses started their careers in February and had two flashy wins, and were obviously talented. But unlike Rock Hard Ten, Justify won the Santa Anita Derby, and did it over a stubborn and accomplished foe in <b>Bolt d'Oro</b>. He then went on to capture the Triple Crown, bookending two relatively easy wins around a difficult Preakness. Rock Hard Ten, by contrast, struggled against the mediocre Castledale, and was nowhere near the winners in either of his Triple Crown races. The inexperience caught up to him quickly. <br />
<br />
Rock Hard Ten's career is the norm for a late bloomer who tries to get into the Triple Crown races: big wins early, failures when the waters get deeper. And knowing that is what makes Justify's accomplishments all the more impressive. Literally dozens of horses have tried what he did; all but him have failed. <br />
<br />
We're not going to wax poetic that Justify was one of the best horses we've seen. Hell, he wasn't even Bob Baffert's first or second-best three year old this decade: he's clearly behind <b>American Pharoah</b> and <b>Arrogate</b>. But it takes a special horse to pull off 4 Grade 1 wins and a Triple Crown when only starting his career on President's Day. And while it's sad that he's retired after only 6 starts and we don't get to see what else he could do, don't let the briefness of his career diminish what he accomplished. Beating the Curse of Apollo was amazing. (Even Forego couldn't do it!) Then carrying that over to win the Triple Crown is something for the ages. He won't go down as one of the 10 best horses ever, but he's clearly an immortal, and one of the best horses we've ever seen. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
* * *</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Although nobody asked, let's wrap this up by ranking the 13 Triple Crown winners. As you'll see, this starts off easy, then gets tricky.<br />
<br />
<b>1. Secretariat (1973).</b> There's really only two horses you can argue for the top spot, and we'll take the one that set track records in each of the three Triple Crown races, plus two other track records, plus won two races on the turf. If you asked 100 people on the street to name a horse, we bet he's the answer for 95 of them.<br />
<br />
<b>2. Citation (1948). </b> The first horse to win a million dollars, he won 16 stakes races in a row, a record that went untouched until Cigar tied him in 1995-6. His 3 year old season consisted of 19 wins in 20 starts, his only loss being against a horse named Saggy in the Chesapeake Trial Stakes, when Citation received a new jockey because his prior one had drowned.<br />
<br />
<b>3. Seattle Slew (1977). </b> The first of two horses to win the Triple Crown undefeated, he really only ran one bad race in his life: losing the Swaps Stakes after winning the Triple Crown. His loss to Exceller in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 1978 - where he defeated another horse on this list - remains the "best loss" in American racing history.<br />
<br />
<b>4. Count Fleet (1943).</b> Most people know that Secretariat has the largest margin of victory in the Belmont, winning by 31 lengths, but few know that this guy is second, winning the Belmont by 25 lengths in what turned out to be his final start. To illustrate one of the many ways racing has changed over the decades, he had a whopping 2 opponents in the Belmont.<br />
<br />
<b>5. War Admiral (1937). </b> At this point he's most famous for losing his match race to Seabiscuit, but that shouldn't overshadow just how good this horse was, who only once finished out of the money. He became one of the most important broodmare sires in racing history, siring Hall of Famer Busher, and dams that created lines that produced Seattle Slew, Swaps, Dr. Fager, Cigar, and horse #7 on this list.<br />
<br />
<b>6. Whirlaway (1941)</b>. The lone horse to win the Triple Crown and the Travers, he holds the record for largest margin of victory in the Kentucky Derby (8 lengths). He ran a whopping 60 times and won 32 times, only finishing out of the money 4 times.<br />
<br />
<b>7. Affirmed (1978). </b>An excellent horse whose reputation is enhanced because of his historic rivalry with Alydar. For our money, his biggest accomplishment was handing Spectacular Bid his only post-Belmont defeat.<br />
<br />
<b>8. American Pharoah (2015). </b> Other than his maiden race, the worst race of Pharoah's career was his win in the Kentucky Derby (yes, we think he ran better losing the Travers). The sheer ease by which he won the last two legs of the Triple Crown remains a sight to behold.<br />
<br />
<b>9. Gallant Fox (1930).</b> The second Triple Crown winner had a surprisingly brief career for a horse in the 1930s - only 17 races, which Citation outdid in his 3 year old season . As another illustration of how things change, in his day, they actually ran the Preakness <i>before</i> the Derby. He's probably most memorable for losing the Travers to 100-1 shot Jim Dandy.<br />
<br />
<b>10. Justify (2018).</b> We'll never know how high the ceiling was, will we? But man, what a fun ride.<br />
<br />
<b>11. Assault (1946).</b> The first horse on this list who had more losses than wins, his career was up and down because of physical ailments and illnesses. When healthy, he was Hall of Fame good. When he wasn't, he was atrocious: he's the only horse on this list with a last place finish.<br />
<br />
<b>12. Sir Barton (1919). </b>When he won the Triple Crown, they didn't even call it the Triple Crown yet, it was just 3 races for three year olds. Although he lost 18 of his 31 starts, in capturing the Triple Crown, he won 4 races (including the Withers Stakes) in 32 days, which is pretty neat.<br />
<br />
<b>13. Omaha (1935).</b> Well someone had to be last. He was the son of Gallant Fox and won only 9 times in 22 starts. But 3 of them were the Derby, Preakness and Belmont, which was enough for immortality.<br />
<br />
<br />El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-38919526459661013892018-06-07T08:42:00.000-04:002018-06-07T08:42:48.337-04:002018 Belmont Stakes Preview<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiYaxBCrUBIPa1ai-SP80dj1veooCYMqBKPfP7r6FNyHX8TjOKxWMTCU2-mhmluFjgYl9wBNxSkW3Koz4H2euN_u_0FyrD1rj_MZTUB-9IBdTJDQT12AFX2qdWZcfnQOzOhzy4Zpb7AUEj/s1600/justify.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiYaxBCrUBIPa1ai-SP80dj1veooCYMqBKPfP7r6FNyHX8TjOKxWMTCU2-mhmluFjgYl9wBNxSkW3Koz4H2euN_u_0FyrD1rj_MZTUB-9IBdTJDQT12AFX2qdWZcfnQOzOhzy4Zpb7AUEj/s320/justify.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Justify</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Let's get the obvious question out of the way: <b><span style="color: red;">Justify </span></b>absolutely can win the Triple Crown. This is not a given if you've won the first two races: <b>War Emblem</b> was a very tenuous proposition at 12 furlongs after basically stealing the Derby and Preakness, and few people actually thought <b>Funny Cide</b> was better than <b>Empire Maker</b>. Either horse <i>could</i> have won the Triple Crown, but neither seemed particularly likely.<br />
<br />
Justify has been a perfectly reasonable winner of both the Derby and Preakness. He ran well in both races and is obviously talented - you don't win Grade 1 races in your 3rd, 4th and 5th starts if you're not. Like <b>American Pharoah</b>, he has good natural speed, but isn't a pure speedball. His speed figures have been impressive especially relative to the class: he sports 4 of the 10 fastest speed figures for a 3 year old this year, including #1 (his Santa Anita Derby), #3 (his maiden race) and #5 (the Kentucky Derby). So far, he's clearly the best horse in this class.<br />
<br />
It's also clear that the Preakness was his worst race. It was slow and unimpressive on paper and visually. He put away pesky foe <b>Good Magic</b> to then almost blow it to <b><span style="color: red;">Bravazo</span></b>, who is nobody's idea of <b>Easy Goer</b>. And it was by far his slowest time. This may not be a surprise: it was his 5th race in 3 1/2 months, and his second in two weeks. That's fine and good, except that the Belmont now makes it 6 races in under 4 months, and his 4th race in less than 10 weeks. That's a lot for any horse to take, let alone one with no prior foundation, and possible distance limitations.<br />
<br />
We are also waiting for Justify to face some sort of adversity during a race. Sure, <b>Promises Fulfilled</b> made him run fast early in the Derby. But Justify remained to his outside at all times and never got dirt in his face. Several of his obvious challengers in the Derby were eliminated before the first turn and never had a shot. The Preakness field was blah besides Good Magic. He's never had traffic trouble, a bad start, a wide trip, or anything other than needing to hold on to a lead after running fast. And sure, good horses make their luck and good trips - that was American Pharoah's secret weapon. We're just skeptical that Justify can do it for the sixth straight time at a new track going 2 furlongs than he's ever gone before. We're not rooting against him. But we're not automatically picking him because he's 5-for-5 and the favorite.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>* * *</b></div>
<br />
So who can beat Justify?<br />
<br />
One of the last places you should look for a Belmont winner, amazingly, is the Preakness. Since <b>Victory Gallop</b> turned the tables on <b>Real Quiet</b> in 1998, we haven't had a horse lose in the Preakness and come back and win the Belmont. Of the 54 horses to run in both races since then, three repeated: a Triple Crown winner (American Pharoah), a Hall of Famer (<b>Point Given</b>), and a borderline Hall of Famer (<b>Afleet Alex</b>). The record for the other 51 starts is dreadful: no wins and 12 in the money finishes. And even that's underselling the badness of Preakness losers, as 5 of those 12 to finish in the money were Preakness winners who didn't repeat (TC busts <b>Charismatic</b>, Funny Cide, and <b>Smarty Jones</b>, plus <b>Curlin</b> and <b>Oxbow</b>). Only 5 horses have run <i>better</i> in the Belmont than they did in the Preakness (by order of finish): <b>Luv Gov's</b> crappy 5th in 2009, clunk-up 3rds by <b>Orb</b>, <b>Monarchos </b>and <b>Lani</b>, and <b>Medaglia d'Oro's</b> excellent second in 2002.<br />
<br />
So we're against both Bravazo and <b><span style="color: red;">Tenfold </span></b>to buck the trend. Both had a real chance to beat Justify in the Preakness, both failed. We don't see either taking a necessary step forward unless switching to a dry track makes a large difference (and that's assuming it's a dry track, which is not a fair assumption as of press time). Both horses will get bet, and our money will go elsewhere.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZwluyPsngpetzQBk7TwVUhrk965Z3nt2h50wFiwMg4FP9uG8cOPIVYeh8vUuoIJgQWEXQT8z__9nmDw0koNm0iGC3F9tR6xoPETv0ohL1YpxW6EmetLzUyb7OJ_IFPe6l6h8qS71HSDnW/s1600/larry.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZwluyPsngpetzQBk7TwVUhrk965Z3nt2h50wFiwMg4FP9uG8cOPIVYeh8vUuoIJgQWEXQT8z__9nmDw0koNm0iGC3F9tR6xoPETv0ohL1YpxW6EmetLzUyb7OJ_IFPe6l6h8qS71HSDnW/s320/larry.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Larry Collmus' view from above</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Let's go beyond the Preakness. The Belmont is often Upset Central, but European invader <b><span style="color: red;">Gronkowski </span></b>is a bridge too far for us. He has zero dirt breeding, hasn't run against top competition in Europe, and hasn't run in over two months. For everyone who wants to point to Euro <b>Go and Go</b>'s win in 1991, we counter that Go and Go already had dirt experience in America and was bred to run in the Belmont. Gronkowski looks a lot more like <b>Dr. Greenfield</b>, who Team Valor hyped up before the 2001 Belmont and did absolutely nothing, running DAFL. Plus, the masses are going to bet Gronkowski simply because of his name, meaning he'll be a lot closer to 10-1 than the 50-1 he deserves to be.<br />
<br />
We have a hard time believing that Bob Baffert would run a real competitor from his barn against Justify - if he was, we think we'd see <b>Ax Man</b> here, who looked great on the Preakness undercard. So we're going to discount the chances of <b><span style="color: red;">Restoring Hope</span> </b>pulling off an intra-barn upset. Also, it's tough to like a horse that's done nothing besides win a maiden race and ran a GSF of 50 last time out.<br />
<br />
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<b><span style="color: red;">Noble Indy</span></b><span style="color: black;"> </span>strikes us as an unlikely winner but he does have enough early speed to keep Justify honest. The question is whether he'll actually do so: he's trained by Todd Pletcher, but is partly owned by WinStar Farms, who also owns Justify. Would WinStar really enter a horse that could tire out their own champion? You know what, let's put a pin in this and come back to it.</div>
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Free Drop Billy</span> </b>is highly unlikely to win but has a shot to hit the board at a huge price. He's an even-paced grinder that is well-bred for 12 furlongs and Dale Romans remains the most underappreciated trainer in horse racing. Horses that are even-paced often clunk up for 2nd or 3rd in the Belmont at a price without really ever having a chance to win - think of <b>Keen Ice</b> in '15 (also trained by Romans), <b>Atigun </b>in '12, <b>Ready's Echo</b> in '08, <b>Andromeda's Hero</b> and <b>Nolan's Cat</b> in '05, and <b>Royal Assault</b> in '04. (Hell, <b>Drosselmeyer </b>pretty much won the race this way in 2010.) He's got a shot to finish third without actually being within 10 lengths of the winner simply by outlasting the competition.<br />
<br />
Finally, we're taking a pass on <b><span style="color: red;">Blended Citizen</span></b>, who did win the Peter Pan last out, but did so barely beating a horse that Justify throttled in California. Justify would have to significantly regress to make this guy competitive, and even if he did, there are other horses who figure to capitalize better than Blended Citizen. He'll just have to hang on to the trophy from the Jeff Ruby Steaks as consolation.<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>* * *</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
On to the real contenders to win. <b><span style="color: red;">Hofburg </span></b>is likely going to be the second choice in the Belmont, which is both logical and bizarre. We tapped him as a sleeper in the Derby and he ran a okay 7th: neither great nor a disaster. (Some are saying his trip was a disaster; it wasn't great, but at best, it cost him finishing 4th.) Unlike a lot of other horses in the field, he has the potential to improve, as he's making his 5th start, and he's bred to get 12 furlongs. But he's still winless outside of maiden races, and his coup de grace so far is a non-threatening second to <b>Audible </b>in the Florida Derby. We would not be surprised to see him move forward and win the Belmont - as we've said, Juddmonte and Mott don't enter these races for kicks - but we would also be unsurprised if he did very little and finished 7th. We seem him as a horse that is going to be underbet relative to his chances, and are siding against.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Which leaves <b><span style="color: red;">Vino Rosso</span></b>, who won the Wood Memorial then ran a completely indifferent 9th in the Derby. He's also bred to get 12 furlongs, and skipped the Preakness, which has been the most common path to success in the modern Belmont. He's trained by Todd Pletcher, who's won 3 of these - including 2 in the last 5 years by running in the Derby and skipping the Preakness - and gets 2-time Belmont winner John Velazquez as his jockey. He's a closer, but not a dead closer that needs to thread his way through the entire field to win the race. This means he won't get fried if there's a pace up front, and while he needs some racing luck, he's not going to be completely at the mercy of the racing gods.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSgbJYq8yDv0z9oaZxiBxCAvSm-uaR0FAm6u0kBPJNQgf-_-z4Dj5ZTb2llyc7q2vEXNcmm5W5LbSK3fwgrFimTcES5KuYMeySDkDQIMlSmGKwFBjXXeiIaFYSb6IDrNNWqLV5xv0jKjxb/s1600/plethcer+and+repole.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSgbJYq8yDv0z9oaZxiBxCAvSm-uaR0FAm6u0kBPJNQgf-_-z4Dj5ZTb2llyc7q2vEXNcmm5W5LbSK3fwgrFimTcES5KuYMeySDkDQIMlSmGKwFBjXXeiIaFYSb6IDrNNWqLV5xv0jKjxb/s320/plethcer+and+repole.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As to that pace...his owner is Mike Repole, who has been extremely successful in racing, but has never won the Belmont. Repole has said time and time again that the Belmont is his white whale: he's a New Yorker, and wants to win this race yesterday. Critically, this isn't his only shot in the race: Repole is the co-owner of Noble Indy. Which is why we think Pletcher is running Noble Indy despite WinStar's common ownership interest with Justify - Noble Indy can keep Justify honest early, and pave the way for Vino Rosso to close into a contested pace. Sure, doing that would defeat a Triple Crown. We don't think Repole cares, especially since we're no longer dealing with a 35+ year drought between Triple Crown wins that would make him the villain. In fact, we'll go so far as to guess that Repole would rejoice in taking down Baffert and playing the spoiler, and frankly, that Pletcher wouldn't mind either.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>* * *</b></div>
<div>
At the end of the day, we are having a tough time seeing Justify as the 13th horse to win the Triple Crown. We're not denying the talent, and his recent works have impressed us, and maybe he is just a freak. But we can't get out of our head the fact that Baffert admitted that he initially thought that Justify was a sprinter. Yes, some horses have been great at all distances between 6 and 12 furlongs. But we are very reticent to say Justify is the next <b>Ghostzapper</b>, let alone <b>Forego</b>.<br />
<br />
To us, Justify has a lot in common with Smarty Jones - great ability to get in tactical position, a high cruising speed, and the ability to dominate a race at up to 9 furlongs. Beyond 9 furlongs? Then it gets dicey, and the horse has to rely on class and luck. This won him the Derby, but as we saw in the Preakness, getting that 10th furlong is not his best game. We don't think the 11th and 12th furlongs are going to be his friend either, especially if Noble Indy makes him work early. We think he gets to the front, is badgered early by Noble Indy (and maybe others as well), shakes them off, gets to the top of the stretch with a lead and the crowd roaring, but gets passed by Vino Rosso before the 8th pole, giving him his first career defeat. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. Vino Rosso</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">2. Justify</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">3. Free Drop Billy</span></b><br />
<br />
Good luck and enjoy the Belmont!!El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-14766738988996305962018-05-17T10:30:00.000-04:002018-05-17T10:30:13.876-04:002018 Preakness Preview<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCSdS02xK55ABtp2WaLvBDx3mWx5XzK_QZXe29s6CSVh2tRnvH2-3x_7eX8csinOVKIZ-HORnfqwT1tnCR4bhob3Z9pJ1qZocbnJoQL1zB8ayMKPKWutHdTJNsvBuPEg0qlubRpsNUvJ6W/s1600/3514159236_05ac8739a3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCSdS02xK55ABtp2WaLvBDx3mWx5XzK_QZXe29s6CSVh2tRnvH2-3x_7eX8csinOVKIZ-HORnfqwT1tnCR4bhob3Z9pJ1qZocbnJoQL1zB8ayMKPKWutHdTJNsvBuPEg0qlubRpsNUvJ6W/s320/3514159236_05ac8739a3.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>The Derby infield aftermath, which resembles our picks</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>Mendelssohn </b>winning the Derby was easily the worst pick we've made since we began posting our picks in 2007. We've had a decent run so far: of the 33 races we've handicapped, we've had 10 winners (including four straight Belmonts from 2012 - 2015), and show a flat-bet profit of $41.40 on a $2 wager. We'll put that against anyone else's Triple Crown predictions for the last decade.<br />
<br />
But until Mendelssohn, we haven't picked a horse that finished DAFL, much less one that lost by over 70 lengths. While there are excuses we can make - Ryan Moore wrapped up the horse when he knew he had lost, making the margin of loss seem worse than it was; Mendelssohn didn't like the slop in the Derby; Aiden O'Brien noted the horse wasn't ready for the hoopla of Derby Day - they're all meaningless.<br />
<br />
As horse players, we know there's only one solution after absolutely bombing a race: turn the page, and move on to the next race. Which is this Saturday's Preakness, as <b>Justify </b>tries to stay undefeated and go to Belmont in line to be the 14th Triple Crown winner, and the second for Bob Baffert in 4 yeras. So let's take a look at the tiny field for Saturday's race. As usual we'll count down the entrants from least likely to our pick, and provide our fair value line along with the morning line. The forecast for Saturday at Pimlico looks grim, so the track might be sloppy and taking that into consideration.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><i>Ah, Baltimore in May</i></b></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: right;">
</div>
<span style="color: blue;"><b>8. Lone Sailor.</b></span> (<b>Morning Line: 15-1; Fair Value Line: 67-1</b>) Our sleeper horse in the Derby pretty much slept his way through the race, grinding his way to a completely meaningless 8th. The fact he didn't improve in the slop when his best prior race was on a sloppy course leads us to believe he's just stagnated and isn't good enough to compete for a minor piece, let alone the win.<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="color: blue;"><b>7. Bravazo.</b> </span> (<b>ML: 20-1; FV: 67-1</b>) Rebounded from his garbage 8th place finish in the Louisiana Derby to run 6th in the Kentucky Derby, which sounds okay, until you realize that he was 2 lengths from finishing 10th and lost ground in the stretch. Some people will point out that <b>Oxbow </b>ran 6th in the 2013 Derby for trainer D. Wayne Lukas before rebounding and winning the Preakness at a price. But Oxbow did that off a brutal trip in the Derby and by stealing the Preakness on the front end, which has been the usual way to pull off an upset in the Preakness. We're not seeing that here.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;"><i>The Wrong Newcomers</i></span></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">6. Sporting Chance</span>.</b> (<b>ML: 30-1; FV: 50-1</b>) The management at Pimlico must hope that Lukas keeps training horses until he's 110 years old, because without him, we would have microscopic fields every year for the Preakness. This is his #2 hope in this race, who won the Hopeful at Saratoga last year but hasn't won anything since. We thought he rated a huge chance in a race on the Derby undercard when he turned back from 2 turns to a 1-turn mile. He flopped miserably, finishing behind horses that were 39-1, 35-1 and 25-1. Now this may be attributable to him not liking the slop, which would be great if rain wasn't in the forecast for Saturday. Even if by some miracle it's dry, there's little indication this guy has moved forward since the Hopeful.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>5. Diamond King.</b></span> (<b>ML: 30-1; FV: 50-1</b>) This year's holder of the <b><span style="color: #38761d;">Magic Weisner Memorial Trophy</span></b>, which goes to the locally based horse that wins the Federico Tesio stakes, is the subject of a few write-ups in the Baltimore/DC area press as the local hope, and never, ever, ever does anything productive in the race. Since <b>Magic Weisner</b> scared the crap out of <b>War Emblem</b> in 2002, the last Tesio winner to finish in the money was <b>Icabad Crane</b> in 2008 where he ran a well-beaten 3rd to <b>Big Brown</b>. There's no reason to think this guy is on the same plane as either of those two horses, let alone the real contenders in this race.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcKvSV3ykEa2tw_XuaoQf2C66o4z7UnAotu4N50RQSjMtuSEr2J2tSgpYGNwsHW0nesZitJq3dFqlbiroAQNtLrOdPx2MNhqRY6gueMDQRrlqmlzsLbv5j9A1xBAqIgkOkTTmY7tsdjC_Z/s1600/giorgio.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcKvSV3ykEa2tw_XuaoQf2C66o4z7UnAotu4N50RQSjMtuSEr2J2tSgpYGNwsHW0nesZitJq3dFqlbiroAQNtLrOdPx2MNhqRY6gueMDQRrlqmlzsLbv5j9A1xBAqIgkOkTTmY7tsdjC_Z/s320/giorgio.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>I don't know. Therefore: ALIENS.</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="color: blue;"><b>4. Quip.</b></span> (<b>ML: 12-1; FV: 30-1</b>) We try not to engage in conspiracy theories, because while they can be fun, we don't need to become the next <span data-original-name="Giorgio A. Tsoukalos"><b>Giorgio Tsoukalos</b>. That said, we have always thought there was more than meets the eye to Bob Baffert's decision to run <b>Dortmund </b>in the Preakness in 2015. Travel back three years, and while <b>American Pharoah</b> was the clear favorite in the Derby, Baffert's "other" horse Dortmund came in to the race undefeated and looked very live. (Baffert knows plenty about his "other" horse running better in the big race - <b>Real Quiet</b> was #2 in the pecking order behind <b>Indian Charlie</b> in the '98 Derby and won anyway, and <b>Congaree </b>finished ahead of favorite <b>Point Given</b> in 2001.) Dortmund ran fairly well for 8 1/2 furlongs before yielding late to both American Pharoah and <b>Firing Line</b>. </span><br />
<span data-original-name="Giorgio A. Tsoukalos"><br /></span>
<span data-original-name="Giorgio A. Tsoukalos">Had Dortmund been trained by anyone else, we think the trainer waits 5 weeks and runs him in the Belmont. But it was Baffert, and he knew American Pharoah had a real shot at the Triple Crown. And we think Baffert also knew he needed the two horses to square off one more time, lest people criticize him for playing favorites or that AP's Triple Crown bid was tainted because he kept him apart from his talented stablemate. And we <i>also </i>think Baffert felt that Dortmund would be more dangerous off a 5 week break. So to get to the desired endpoint, he ran Dortmund right back in the Preakness, essentially knowing that he wouldn't be 100% against American </span><span data-original-name="Giorgio A. Tsoukalos"><span data-original-name="Giorgio A. Tsoukalos">Pharoah, and that if he won with Dortmund, well, then American Pharoah didn't deserve the Triple Crown anyway</span>. Lo and behold, Dortmund ran a blah 4th in the Preakness and American </span><span data-original-name="Giorgio A. Tsoukalos"><span data-original-name="Giorgio A. Tsoukalos">Pharoah</span> won the Triple Crown. (In possibly related news, Baffert no longer trains for Dortmund's owner.)</span><br />
<span data-original-name="Giorgio A. Tsoukalos"><br /></span>
<span data-original-name="Giorgio A. Tsoukalos">What does this have to do with Quip? Well, Quip is owned by WinStar Farms, who also owns Justify. After Quip ran an okay second in the Arkansas Derby, WinStar's manager Elliot Walden said they would pass on the Derby and point to the Preakness instead. Which made sense - Quip doesn't look like a stiff, but has seemed a level below the top echelon of horses, as his "big" race was winning the Tampa Bay Derby at 19-1 over second-tier horses. Except now his Derby-winning stablemate is running as well, and there's no chance in hell that Walden and WinStar would want one of their horses to spoil the other's Triple Crown chances. If this guy were a real threat to Justify, we think WinStar would have pulled him and pointed to something else, like last week's Peter Pan or the summer races, because almost nobody would have said "Justify's Triple Crown is tainted because he didn't face Quip." That they're running him in the Preakness anyway says to us they don't think he's going to be competitive for anything besides a minor check. Which in fairness, we don't either.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><i>The Interesting Longshot</i></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>3. Tenfold. </b></span> (<b>ML: 20-1; FV: 15-1</b>) We admit that we're take a stab on this guy on the come, because his race record is pretty light with indicia that he can be competitive here. But there are some positive signs. An extremely well-bred horse - his father <b>Curlin</b> won this race in 2007; his damsire is the stellar <b>Tapit</b> - like Justify, he was late to take to the track, making his first start in February in a 2-turn race going 1 1/16 miles. He won that easily, as well as his next start, an allowance race at the same distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen - who's won this race twice - pressed his luck and put him in the Arkansas Derby, where he ran 5th, but was less than a length from finishing 2nd. He didn't qualify for the Derby, so here is in the Preakness with 5 weeks of rest. His breeding indicates that he'll enjoy a wet track (there's heavy turf breeding on his grand-maternal side, which often overlaps with wet track success). And there's upside here, unlike with a lot of the other entrants. We think he's going to have a tough time against the two obvious contenders, but isn't out of it to win if they both falter or run each other into the ground - a la <b>Cloud Computing</b> last year - and is definitely live to hit the board at a price.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><i>Nah, Not Seeing It</i></b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="color: blue;"><b>2. Justify.</b></span> (<b>ML: 1-2; FV: 5-2</b>) Sure, let's double-down on being stubborn. We picked against him in the Derby for a host of reasons that we'll still defend, and we were just wrong. It happens. Now he enters the Preakness, which is <i>really</i> Bob Baffert's wheelhouse. He's won the race 6 times, and all four of his Derby winners repeated in the Preakness. (His other two winners were beaten Derby favorites <b>Point Given</b> and <b>Lookin at Lucky</b>.) Justify answered some huge questions in the Derby: he didn't mind the slop, he didn't mind the quick pace, and the relative lack of experience wasn't a negative.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPDGK2RU8_HaGXWJ53M5KRWlegB7oPj04KtDhiAWwkMkdkeYBAlPQT3BrcB106N7tPZLGn2oIozL31c9_uLvs2tFF329RDB400T2E8WY8fhCRcMlrvP9ilCWthQDiT1pZn83aVtVMTMDyl/s1600/nine+times.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPDGK2RU8_HaGXWJ53M5KRWlegB7oPj04KtDhiAWwkMkdkeYBAlPQT3BrcB106N7tPZLGn2oIozL31c9_uLvs2tFF329RDB400T2E8WY8fhCRcMlrvP9ilCWthQDiT1pZn83aVtVMTMDyl/s320/nine+times.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Nine times?</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
With all that said, we don't think he's going to win Saturday. The idea of bringing a horse back with such a short foundation on 2 weeks rest makes us very skeptical. It's worth noting that literally all of Baffert's other Preakness winners were long on foundation: American Pharoah was the least experienced with 6 career starts, but all the other winners had made at least 9 starts beforehand. (Real Quiet ran NINE times as a two year old, which seems mind-boggling now, but was only 20 years ago.) Heck, all had made their two year old debuts in the summer, meaning they had been in training for nearly a year when they rolled into Pimlico. Justify hasn't had anywhere near that experience. While it didn't cost him in the Derby for a multitude of reasons - he's really good, he made his own luck, and a lot of horses didn't like the slop - we are very concerned about the lack of foundation hurting him on a 2-week turnback. (We're not sure what to make of the hoof bruising, we're inclined to think it's nothing.)<br />
<br />
Paramutually, there is absolutely no value in betting Justify to win on Saturday. The last 5 Derby winners all went off in the Preakness at odds between 1-2 (<b>California Chrome</b>) and 6-5 (<b>Always Dreaming</b>). We think Justify will probably be close to California Chrome's odds. Even if we're being a little more generous with our "fair value" line, there's no way he's better than a 50/50 proposition to win. And yet, the majority of the field is so nondescript that we can easily see him escaping with an easy lead and just cruising home. We have a tough time getting him out of the trifecta unless he duels with someone into submission, but on top prefer...<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><i>The Pick</i></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>1. Good Magic. </b></span> (<b>ML: 3-1; FV: 2-1</b>) We were more impressed with his Derby performance than most - he sat near the quick pace, made a run at Justify, and while he couldn't get by him, he didn't really fade either. (Sure, maybe <b>Audible </b>was second-best with his bad trip, but that's not relevant here.) It's clear that Good Magic was fine with the slop, so if we get an off track, that's not a negative. He's worked out well since the race. <br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsZY8TYW2xmQb0fTwTW2CTE8GFF_-rn7hw8CKQek9Mqn8vSN7hZZpUZuzqS0Ct1gVXWFFBN6uOiRu3y8cIOGExsObwQZeEyKtP8nctmlxxjEVoW0QRqTxLoYf2oVSzlI6O46NIN7lknaat/s1600/GoodMagicRD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsZY8TYW2xmQb0fTwTW2CTE8GFF_-rn7hw8CKQek9Mqn8vSN7hZZpUZuzqS0Ct1gVXWFFBN6uOiRu3y8cIOGExsObwQZeEyKtP8nctmlxxjEVoW0QRqTxLoYf2oVSzlI6O46NIN7lknaat/s320/GoodMagicRD.jpg" width="320" /></a>Most importantly, we trust trainer Chad Brown. Brown won last year's Preakness with Cloud Computing by making an excellent tactical play. He scanned the field, saw that it was top-heavy, knew his horse Cloud Computing was improving and in decent form, and concluded that he stood a good chance to pull the upset if Always Dreaming and Classic Empire both faltered, his lack of experience be damned. When the two favorites dueled each other into defeat, Cloud Computing used a perfect stalking trip to take advantage and swooped in to win.<br />
<br />
Brown's comments this week have been similar - he knows that if you're going to beat Justify, this is probably the race to do it, when the turn back is quick and his horse won't be at a tactical disadvantage. He also knows this is Good Magic's last race for two months (he's already said he's not running in the Belmont, and is pointing next for the Haskell/Travers), so there's no reason not to run him hard here and give him a rest afterwards. We think this is going to be a replay of the 2012 Preakness with the roles of <b>I'll Have Another</b> and <b>Bodemeister</b> flipped: Justify tries to steal the race on the front end, Good Magic patiently waits, and runs him down in the stretch.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><i>How to Bet</i></b></span><br />
<br />
Honestly, we'd be surprised if either of the top two choices offered any value in the win slot. Our tactic is to try to spice it up with Tenfold, so we'll box the three of them in trifectas, and use Tenfold in exactas with each of the top two entries, a little heavier with Tenfold in the 2nd slot, and a little heavier with Good Magic up top.<br />
<br />
Good luck to all and enjoy the Preakness!El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-83894042313043544282018-05-04T08:30:00.000-04:002018-05-04T08:30:08.280-04:002018 Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The Contenders<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQrGbTb9l10gq8XKg4YCDkdbrPlWhZwYMIhyhd77_cwYLGqOsWYFZi3S_O2UoOwp9uthzyDsICRyW8JxOpJ1-gXzhZuQjuF7LilstXf5PqoDMwG8AnyZEubi_a-eibAl1-KdHqQ-exz3ZV/s1600/bobby.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQrGbTb9l10gq8XKg4YCDkdbrPlWhZwYMIhyhd77_cwYLGqOsWYFZi3S_O2UoOwp9uthzyDsICRyW8JxOpJ1-gXzhZuQjuF7LilstXf5PqoDMwG8AnyZEubi_a-eibAl1-KdHqQ-exz3ZV/s1600/bobby.jpg" /></a>Since 1996 - what we define as the "modern" era of the Triple Crown, i.e., since the emergence of Bob Baffert - some of the "rules" have gone by the wayside, but a few remain. All but one (<b>Charismatic</b>) had 2-4 starts are a 3 year old, though all have had fewer than 4 since <b>Smarty Jones</b> in 2004. 17 of the 22 won a race as a 3 year old. (Exceptions include bombs <b>Giacomo </b>and <b>Mine That Bird</b>, but also the relatively logical <b>Super Saver</b>, <b>Funny Cide</b> and <b>Real Quiet</b>.) And a "sharp" prep race was a must - only Mine That Bird bucked that trend.<br />
<br />
What's recently emerged is the strange trend of not only winning your start before the Derby, but winning <i>all</i> of your starts as a 3 year old. Since Super Saver in 2010, each of the Derby winners has won their prep race, and only one has lost at all as a three year old. (Congrats to <b>Powhatan County</b> for beating <b>Animal Kingdom</b> in an anonymous allowance race at Gulfstream on March 3, 2011. He went on to have an uninteresting career for trainer George Weaver, winning 7 of 32 career starts.) Part of the reason may be the simple fact that there are so many ways to get to the Derby now that it's easy to duck the tough competition until the first Saturday in May. Or maybe it's just coincidence.<br />
<br />
So is handicapping as simple as tossing any horse that lost a race in 2018? Not necessarily, because this would still leave you with 4 horses, and would end up eliminate some prime contenders. With that, let's look at this year's top 10.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: red;">Possible, But Not Our Cup of Tea</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">10. Noble Indy.</span></b> (ML: 30-1; FV: 50-1) There are six big domestic final preps for the Kentucky Derby: the Santa Anita, Louisiana, Arkansas and Florida Derbies, the Wood Memorial, and the Blue Grass. While winning one of those generally stamps you as a contender for the Kentucky Derby, every year without fail one of those winners is ignored on Derby Day. As a matter of common sense, this has to be so - one of them will at <i>best</i> be the 6th choice in the race, and not everyone can look fabulous in the beauty pageant that is Derby prep season. And sometimes a complete bomb wins a prep and looks like someone who won't repeat in Louisville: think of <b>Irap </b>last year, or <b>Dance with Fate</b> in '14. Other times it's a horse that won his prep but displayed nothing more than sheer competence in the process. Examples are <b>Outwork </b>in '16, <b>Vicar's in Trouble</b> in '14.<br />
<br />
This year's edition is the Blahest Derby Contender is Noble Indy, who's one of <i>four</i> horses in the race trained by Todd Pletcher, who needs no introduction here. After two wins in Florida, he was shipped to Louisiana, where he ran a not-great 3rd in the Risen Star, followed by professional yet unexciting win in the Louisiana Derby. It's not so much that his performance wasn't that scintillating, it's that he beat nobody of import: nobody in the LA Derby besides him will be less than 30-1 on Saturday. And the truth is he was in Louisiana because Pletcher needs to keep his horses apart from each other. So he sent his second-tier contender to Louisiana while he kept in Florida...<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">9. Audible.</span></b> (ML: 8-1; FV: 20-1) We were on the fence about this guy to begin with because we don't love his breeding for10 furlongs, and while he's had two good starts in a row, we're concerned that he's the product of just liking Gulfstream. (We're aware he won twice at Aqueduct. Once was over a bad maiden field and the other was against 3 other horses in the dead of winter. Yawn.) Then came this quote from trainer Todd Pletcher:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 1em;">
<span style="color: #38761d;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Audible has some noticeable discoloration on his front hooves, the result of the product Equilox being applied, Pletcher said, in order to “bump up” the walls of his hooves.</span><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 1em;">
<span style="color: #38761d;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">“He has shelly walls. This gives the blacksmith more of a wall to work with.</span><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">It’s a proactive approach,” Pletcher said, to guard against quarter cracks and to make sure there’s enough area to affix a shoe with nails.</span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 1em;">
<span style="color: #38761d; font-family: inherit;">Horses with similar issues sometimes wear glue-on shoes, but Pletcher said he’s had inconsistent results with glue-ons – “sometimes we get issues with their soles” – and thought this approach was best for Audible, who had the work done after the Holy Bull and prior to the Florida Derby, Pletcher said.</span></blockquote>
<div>
In that case, we'll definitely pass. This guy has a lot more in common with Pletcher's Derby favorites that bombed - <b>Verrazano</b>, <b>Gemologist </b>and <b>Bandini </b>- than winners <b>Super Saver</b> and <b>Always Dreaming</b>, especially at what will be a fairly short price.</div>
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: red;">Apollo's Ghost</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">8. Magnum Moon.</span></b> (ML: 6-1; FV: 20-1) We have referenced the Apollo Curse many times in this blog: no horse has won the Derby without a start as a 2 year old since Apollo in 1882. We can spend a lot of time going over the reasons why or just link to <a href="http://gowanusbaseball.blogspot.com/2015/05/2015-kentucky-derby-preview-part-ii.html">our</a> <a href="http://gowanusbaseball.blogspot.com/2007/05/kentucky-derby-preview-part-i-traits-of.html">old</a> <a href="http://gowanusbaseball.blogspot.com/2012/04/2012-kentucky-derby-preview-part-i-last.html">posts</a>. To be clear, we don't think it's a curse - we think there are excellent reasons why a horse that runs a race for the first time in January or later of his 3 year old season has never won a race with 19 opponents at a new distance in front of 160,000 people. It's a tall order for veteran 3 year olds; it's even harder for one that hasn't been battle tested and amply prepared.<br />
<br />
First up is Magnum Moon, who ran his first race for Todd Pletcher in January, and is 4-for-4, with wins in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby. What worries us in particular about him is not only the lack of a 2 year old foundation, but also that he's still showing immaturity. In his last race, he literally had the race all to himself and <i>still</i> continued to weave through the stretch, as he failed to properly change leads, and ran like he had spent too much time sipping mint juleps. Some will scoff this off as a horse that was bored when nobody was bothering him in the stretch; others have argued this shows he actually has upside. We go the other way - we see a colt with talent that still has some growing up to do and is likely to have issues at Churchill. At 6-1 or lower, we're not interested in taking a gamble that it's boredom, rather than immaturity.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>7. Justify.</b> </span> (ML: 3-1; FV: 17-1) We concede that this guy is talented, and there's a chance he turns out to be a superstar and romps on Saturday. But this is <b>exactly</b> the type of horse that we will bet against every single time. He's a favorite that's trying to buck a ton of tradition by not only never starting as a two year old, he didn't get his career going until <i>President's Day</i>. He's only had three starts, which is a handicap only <b>Big Brown</b> has overcome in recent years. And his three wins all have giant caveats. He beat nobody in his first two starts, and in his last (the Santa Anita Derby), he walked to the lead and was never contested. Sure he repelled his lone challenger in the stretch, primarily because he was never challenged for the first 7 furlongs and had plenty left in reserve. That's an effort that is not going to be duplicated unless 8 other horses break poorly, or he's the next coming of <b>Seattle Slew</b>.<br />
<br />
Justify is clearly not a stiff. If this were a weaker crop of horses, we'd give him a stronger look. Indeed, that's exactly how Big Brown bucked a ton of tradition and won in 2008: he took on a bunch of fairly terrible horses and won by nearly 10 lengths over the second-best male. But this isn't 2008, this is a tough group of horses Justify needs to beat. And we think that complete lack of experience won't help him once the gates open. If he tries to wire the field, he's going to see pressure that he's never seen before getting fried (shades of <b>Bellamy Road</b> in 2005) If he sits off the pace, he's going to get traffic trouble and dirt thrown at his face, two obstacles he's never faced before. He's never left California. He's beaten a total of 14 horses in his 3 races. And he is going to be 7-2 or shorter. Since the odds don't remotely match his chances to win, we're passing entirely.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b><i><span style="color: red;">The Goofy Longshots</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">6. Lone Sailor.</span> </b> (ML: 50-1; FV: 30-1) If you want to throw in a total bomb for exotics, you could do a lot worse than this guy. There's a touch of interesting breeding here - his granddam is the blue-blooded <b>Aldiza</b>, who won a Grade 1 and could run a distance. He has almost no early speed and zero success on a fast track, but he will be closing late into what shop be a decent pace, and his last race was his best yet. We give him a remote chance of actually winning, but a much better chance than many others at actually hitting the board, which is why we're ranking him here.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">5. Hofburg.</span></b> (ML: 20-1; FV: 17-1) Like Justify, he's also only had three starts, and he's only won once. But we like that he at least <i>tried</i> to break his maiden at Saratoga last summer. Those early starts build a foundation in a horse that is difficult to replicate. After that loss, he remained in training until resurfacing at Gulfstream this winter, where we won a maiden impressively. He was then aggressively placed into the Florida Derby, where he ran a good second against Audible, closing well but not having enough to keep up with the winner.<br />
<br />
So why are we pro this guy and anti Justify and Audible? The first reason is price: Justify and Audible will be 7-2 and 6-1, respectively; this guy will be at least 15-1 (though we can see him as the "wise-guy" horse that gets bet). The other reason is his connections. Trainer Bill Mott and owner Juddmonte Farms are a top-notch and almost never try to rush their horses or put them in position to fail. Witness Juddmonte's conservative handling of <b>Arrogate </b>2 years ago: they waited until he had enough experience to make his stakes debut, and they were rewarded with the Travers romp. Mott is arguably one of the 5 best trainers of our lifetime, but has rarely tried the Derby because he lets his horses develop at their own pace; he's not in the game for vanity and publicity. The fact that both Mott and Juddmonte are here with a horse that's only made 3 starts tells us they think they have a stud on their hands. When they think so, we pay attention <br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b><i><span style="color: red;">Contenders</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">4. Vino Rosso.</span></b> (ML: 12-1; FV: 10-1) He's 3rd on most people's list of Pletcher horses, but he's by far the most interesting to us. His breeding is excellent: <b>Curlin</b> was a Hall of Famer that needs no introduction, and has become an influential sire in the Triple Crown, as he's sired a horse that's finished in the money in a TC race each of the last 5 years, including Belmont winner <b>Palace Malice</b> and Preakness winner <b>Exaggerator</b>. His Wood Memorial was by far his best start of his career - sitting nicely off a quick pace, making a wide move on the far turn, and pushing past Enticed to win in a new career top. And he looked relatively professional doing so, and has retained Pletcher's preferred jockey, John Velazquez, who won last year's Derby on Almost Dreaming. We see his chances as no worse than Audible or Magnum Moon, and he's going to be easily double their price.<br />
<div>
</div>
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="color: blue;">3. Good Magic.</span></b> (ML: 12-1; FV: 8-1) We have seen super-trainer Chad Brown do this so many times that it's impossible to ignore. A well-regarded horse runs well enough first time out or first time off a layoff, shows some improvement in the second start, then explodes in his third start. Hell, that's Good Magic's entire profile from 2017: a solid if losing maiden run, consolidating some gains in the Champagne Stakes when finishing second, then a huge move forward in the Juvenile, which was his ultimate target.<br />
<br />
We're seeing the exact same thing again this year: a so-so return to the races at Gulfstream, followed by a professional if unspectactular win in the Blue Grass. People are writing him off saying that he's shown no improvement in those two starts, given that the horse behind him in the Blue Grass was Flameaway, who's nobody's idea of a contender. We get it, but strongly disagree. There is no way on earth that Brown was priming Good Magic to peak in either of his first two races. Sure, he's happy that he won the Blue Grass, but the Derby is the ultimate goal. We're expecting a <i>huge</i> move forward from this guy on Saturday and like that he has the tactical speed to be in the mix early on without needing to be on the lead. Prime contender that we're not picking simply because we think the next two horses are just a little more talented.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">2. Bolt d'Oro.</span> </b> (ML: 8-1; FV: 6-1) Is it possible for a horse that's an Eclipse finalist and the winner of two Grade 1 races to be underappreciated? After breaking his maiden, he won two Grade 1's in California stylishly and was deemed by all to be the strongest favorite on the Breeders' Cup card. He finished 3rd behind Good Magic and Solomini, largely because he ran extremely wide on both turns thanks to an abominable ride by Corey Nakatani, who validated our long-standing belief that he's the most overrated jockey in American history. The merry-go-round ride definitely cost Bolt d'Oro second, and we think he would have given Good Magic a run for the win had he received a smarter ride.<br />
<br />
Both of his starts this year were excellent. He began with a somewhat strange win in the San Felipe, where he and <b>McKinzie</b> put on a stellar stretch duel, and Bolt d'Oro was placed first when McKinzie was DQ'd. He next ran a big number in the Santa Anita Derby, only to lose to Justify, which we largely chalk up to the dream trip Justify received on the lead. We already are on record that we think Justify is primed for a regression, so the fact this guy lost to him last out is no obstacle to us. By contrast, Bolt d'Oro is up for his third start of the year, and may be ready to take the final step forward and put forward a big effort on Saturday, and has literally never run a big race. Plus, we think there's a solid chance this guy gets completely forgotten in the betting. Huge contender.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: red;">The Pick</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. Mendelssohn.</span> </b> (ML: 5-1; FV: 4-1) We are still kicking ourselves for not futuring him in February at 44-1. He has one of the oddest running lines you'll ever see in a Kentucky Derby horse. His first three races were on the grass in Ireland and the UK, and could only be described as a disappointment: a maiden win and two terrible losses. But something clicked in his fourth career start in the Champagne Stakes, where he ran a decent second. Trainer Aiden O'Brien shipped him to Del Mar for the Juvenile Turf, which he won handily while showing excellent tactical speed.<br />
<br />
Immediately after winning the Breeders Cup race, O'Brien announced they were pointing him for the Kentucky Derby. Normally this would be ludicrous: the horse had done well on grass, why should he be running in the Derby? Because of his impeccable breeding, which is why Coolmore bought him for $3 million. He's out of the super dam <b>Leslie's Lady</b>, who's the dam of future Hall of Famer <b>Beholder</b>, who won 11 Grade 1's on the dirt, plus <b>Into Mischief</b>, who had a good dirt career and is a hot dirt sire. And his sire is <b>Scat Daddy</b>, who had become one of the most fashionable sires before he died because his progeny could run on <i>any</i> surface. Put it bluntly: if Mendelssohn's resume includes a Grade 1 on the turf and the Kentucky Derby, he's one of the 5 most valuable sires on earth.<br />
<br />
O'Brien started his year by running him on a synthetic surface at Dundalk in Ireland, which is hardly a conventional path for the Derby. He won handily while proving nothing. Then Mendelssohn shipped to Dubai for his dirt debut in the UAE Derby, a prep we generally ignore. Mendelssohn went to the front before pulling away to win by 18 lengths. Watch the replay if you want to see pure dominance:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/labLfA2WBDo/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/labLfA2WBDo?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
Now if anyone else owned or trained this horse, we'd be skeptical. But there is no better trainer on earth than Aiden O'Brien. And this is by far the best chance he's had in a Triple Crown race. Importantly, he has excellent tactical speed (we would be a lot less interested in him if he were a dead closer, like many turf stars) and a good foundation of 7 starts. And even more importantly, he has all the hallmarks of a potential superstar. We think he's the best horse in the field and is going to sit just off the pace setters while getting first run on everyone else in the far turn, and has enough to hold off the competition in the stretch.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: red;">How to Bet</span></i></b><br />
<br />
We think Mendelssohn will be at least 5-1, and everyone other than Justify is going to be a square price, so don't ignore the win betting. We're also all for keying our top choices over Lone Sailor, Hofburg, and if we had to use another longshot, maybe Solomini. And also take a look at the multi-race wagers, like the Oaks-Derby double (in the Oaks, we like <b>Midnight Bissou</b>, <b>Eskimo Kisses</b> and <b>Wonder Gadot</b>).<br />
<br />
Good luck to all and enjoy the Derby!El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-62400154339295322552018-05-03T08:30:00.000-04:002018-05-03T08:30:05.657-04:002018 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part I: The Longshots<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt-ci64hfhYdLxMmpXw3DJhnKyp6Fm7DfhpTrMoZF2oyW1QUNPr5CkeCFgRWmxJhEb_AI9lya9NMhi6rTokK0WmxIub3vqQ4u2_HRoSKemoDf7NOh0Z3v_AH3rsSijnITzCfQzCv00rSrc/s1600/churchill.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt-ci64hfhYdLxMmpXw3DJhnKyp6Fm7DfhpTrMoZF2oyW1QUNPr5CkeCFgRWmxJhEb_AI9lya9NMhi6rTokK0WmxIub3vqQ4u2_HRoSKemoDf7NOh0Z3v_AH3rsSijnITzCfQzCv00rSrc/s320/churchill.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
The fields have been drawn, the jockeys have been set and it's time for our annual rite of embarrassment: our Kentucky Derby Preview! We're very excited for this year's race because we legitimately think this is the best crop we've seen since 2007, which included Hall of Famer <b>Curlin</b>, Breeders Cup Juvenile winner <b>Street Sense</b> and good horses like <b>Hard Spun</b> and <b>Any Given Saturday</b>. This year's group has everything you would want in a Derby: phenoms, veterans, Breeders' Cup winners, and foreign intrigue.<br />
<br />
What it also means is that it has a slew of horses that we would consider genuine surprises if they took home the roses. This year half the field is legitmiately longer than 50-1 to win the race, and some of the longer shots would be a <b>Giacomo</b> level surprise. So let's countdown the bottom 10; tomorrow we'll look at the 10 possibilities. (We are ignoring also-eligible <b>Blended Citizen</b>, and advise you to do the same.) We're including with our analysis the track's morning line odds and our fair value odds, which is the price where we think a horse becomes a good bet. As you'll see, for this first group, you're going to need odds you won't find at Churchill Downs on Saturday. As always, we're assuming the track is fast and fair on Saturday.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: red;">Bombs Away!</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">20. Promises Fulfilled.</span></b> (Morning Line: 30-1; Fair Value Line: 200-1) His one good race was
a Fountain of Youth where he went to the front unchallenged and stole
the race after setting a dawdling pace. He followed that up with a
Florida Derby where he dueled through significantly faster fractions
(the half mile was nearly 2 1/2 seconds faster than the Fountain of Youth) and faded to DAFL. A
horse winning the Derby off a last race Gowanus Speed Figure of 47 -
which would lose a maiden claiming race at Aqueduct - would be historic.<b> </b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">19. Bravazo. </span></b> (ML: 50-1; FV: 200-1) Well he finished 8th in his last, which is marginally better than Promises Fulfilled. We love the D. Wayne Lukas is still saddling Kentucky Derby entrants at age 82. Then we remember that all of his recent big race successes - <b>Oxbow </b>in the '13 Preakness, <b>Take Charge Brandi</b> in the '14 Juvenile Fillies - came when he had a fit horse steal a race on the front end. That's hard to do in with a horse that lacks early speed.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">18. Firenze Fire.</span> </b>(ML: 50-1; FV: 200-1) All of his success has come in 1-turn races where he was able to sit off a fair pace and make a big stretch run after getting into position on the turn. In his 3 two-turn efforts, he's steadily gotten worse each time. We do think he's got a big shot in the Woody Stephens in 5 weeks, for whatever that's worth.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">17. Free Drop Billy.</span> </b> (ML: 30-1; FV: 200-1) Dale Romans is going to win a Kentucky Derby some day, but it seems highly unlikely that it'll come from a horse that stagnated 5 races ago. Also, we refuse to endorse an animal with this stupid a name.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>16. Instilled Regard.</b> </span> (ML: 50-1; FV: 200-1) In his last race he received a perfect trip on the rail and just off the leaders and still finished 4th by over 10 lengths. Jerry Hollendorfer winning the Derby would be awesome. If this guy were to do it, it'd also be a shock.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHKi9IkJJdAscnNQpTctzetHoGTuDOMuOt01rt3fDxhpXKg_66Hkz2VxOlKjEbeMZMmH9znM0FJEXuDEDhiogRbrhUdG7IoUGBycy_3sG7nl1z2fdsn6QopIQwHIKlpT6EyoGqI5QmApwM/s1600/LC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1200" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHKi9IkJJdAscnNQpTctzetHoGTuDOMuOt01rt3fDxhpXKg_66Hkz2VxOlKjEbeMZMmH9znM0FJEXuDEDhiogRbrhUdG7IoUGBycy_3sG7nl1z2fdsn6QopIQwHIKlpT6EyoGqI5QmApwM/s320/LC.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Voice of the Kentucky Derby and dapper gent, Larry Collmus</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b><span style="color: blue;">15. My Boy Jack.</span></b> (ML: 30-1; FV: 100-1) We are inherently skeptical
of horses that need to alter their plans and run an extra race just to qualify for the Derby, which is what this guy did by running in the Lexington, a the ultimate last-ditch Derby prep race. Sure, he won. In a slow time over absolutely nobody
while showing some possible distance limitations. Other than that,
great.<br />
<span style="color: blue;"></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"></span>
<b><span style="color: blue;">14. Combatant.</span></b> (ML: 50-1; FV: 100-1) This guy only drew into the race because two other horses dropped out late, which is never a great sign for your chances. He's a dead closer that's a bit slower than the other dead closers, so while there are strained arguments to make for him finishing in the superfecta, we're more of the opinion that you'll hear his name called by Friend of the Blog Larry Collmus exactly once, when he runs through every horse the first time and says "and the trailer is Combatant."<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: red;">Fun Horses to Own, Limited Chance Here</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">13. Flameaway.</span> </b> (ML: 30-1; FV: 100-1) Owner of 5 wins in 8 starts, he's won on dirt, synthetic and turf, at distances ranging from 4 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 mile, and has earned over $650,000. He's only run out of the money twice, one of which was in last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, where he was 8th but only lost by 4 lengths. He's as honest as a horse gets, and if he stays healthy, will almost certainly have a productive career.<br />
<br />
What the 8 races show is that while he's consistent, he's consistently a level below the top horses in this race. There's not a lot of upside here, especially if he goes to the front where there's going to be a lot of pace. Look for him to fade and resurface in a lot of Grade 2 races this summer.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">12. Enticed. </span></b> (ML: 30-1; FV: 66-1) In his two biggest races, he was thumped by horses further up this list and appears to have some profound distance limitations. We think he's a nice 1-turn horse that will have a useful career but is way over his head here. Look for a middling effort and a long layoff to follow, per Godolphin's usual.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">11. Solomini. </span> </b>(ML: 30-1; FV: 66-1) This guy is also about as consistent as they come. Since stretching out after his maiden race, his speed figures have been 90-93-93-92-92. Even trainer Bob Baffert noted that he has "one speed." That isn't an knock <i>per se</i>, grinders will often have long careers, and this guy's breeding indicates that he should do okay at a longer distance. But this is the type of horse that's competitive in the Belmont if he speeds up and everyone else falls apart. In the Derby? More cannon fodder.<br />
<br />
<b>Coming up tomorrow</b>: the Top Ten, including our pick.El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-66082563363868501562018-03-21T16:10:00.004-04:002018-03-21T18:03:01.478-04:00Transactions Analysis: The 2018 DraftBack from the metaphorical dead, it's the TA! I will confess: I almost approached Teddy about doing one last year despite being in the midst of my one-year fantasy sabbatical. But it's good to be back. So let's kick off 2018 with a recap of the first two rounds of this year's draft, which was very arm-heavy and Mets-lite. As it should have been.<br />
<br />
And lastly, congrats to my co-author on his 2017 victory. How does it feel to finally wear the crown of toilet paper? (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Turns out that all I need in order to win is ridiculous luck and a near-historic level of apathy among other owners. That sounds replicable! (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. Wu Tang Financial: Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals.</span></b><br />
<br />
I'm not sure which is odder: that this is the first of 7 pitchers to go in the first round (and 10 of the first 15 picks), or that <b>three</b> #1 picks from the amateur draft went in the first round, all of which were starting pitchers. I suppose it's a credit to our collective genius that <b>Bryan Bullington</b> wasn't one of them.<br />
<br />
As to Straz, you know what you're getting at this point - an annoying injury that robs him of 5-7 starts, a bunch of frustrating no-decisions, a good K rate and around 15 wins. His ERA dropped enough last year that it's reasonable to theorize that he's about to enter a 2-3 year peak, so I'm pro this as the first overall pick, especially with the lack of obvious alternatives in the hitting department. Even if he hasn't developed into the second coming of <b>Justin Verlander</b>, he kinda fits as "starter with the fewest warts." (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Let's set out the background here first: this draft is flatter than a [REDACTED BY BLOGSPOT #METOO FILTER]; Strasburg is the pointy center of the slightly raised area of the draft which, to extend the metaphor, makes him the [REDACTED BY BLOGSPOT #METOO FILTER] in the middle of her [COME ON, DUDE]. So, yeah, good pick.<br />
<br />
In other news, WTF is actually going to win this year, isn't he? I'm only going to get to feel like a special boy for one year and then all the other longtime losers are going to show up and steal my shine. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">2. A Lovely Tea Party: Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays.</span></b><br />
<br />
This is probably the right pick for a team whose keeper list had only two "hitters" (and that's being kind to <b>Billy Hamilton</b>), but Donaldson scares me. He's entering his age-32 season, literally every stat has declined over the last two years, and the Jays are going to suck this year, potentially sapping his Rs and RBIs. It's unlikely that Donaldson will kill Scot - especially this year - but I'm suspect of taking an obviously declining asset at #2. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Again, I think this is an issue of calibration more than anything. Donaldson feels like a reach at 2, but I think he's the only real choice for a hitter-shy team in a draft this shallow. <b>Giancarlo Stanton</b> and <b>Buster Posey</b> aren't going to be the last two picks in the first round like last year. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">3. The Darkest Timeline: Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants.</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">4. The Darkest Timeline: Starling Marte, OF, Pirates.</span></b><br />
<br />
Both Bumgarner and Marte are coming off their worst years: Bumgarner because pitching 9000 innings may have caught up to him, and Marte because he failed to speak with his local pharmacist at Walgreen's. I actually like Marte this year and think he'll be a perennial All-Star going forward, and that Bumgarner has at 1-2 ASG appearances left. So to say something I've never said before: good work by the commish. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
At the risk of correcting my esteemed colleague, Bumgarner didn't miss time because of workload. He missed time because he is a ridiculous redneck. He appears in pickup truck commercials in the Bay area, which is not a terribly pickup truck-dense part of the country. And he hurt himself when he <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2017/04/24/madison-bumgarner-dirt-bike-injury/">fell off a dirtbike for no reason</a>. (Note: in the previous sentence "no reason" is being used as a questionable synonym for "shortly after murdering a party ball of Coors Light".) But yeah, otherwise agreed. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">5. Angelo M. Grasseaux: Alex Wood, SP, Dodgers.</span></b><br />
<br />
I have a very hard time getting a strong handle on Wood, who sprouted big last year and became rock solid. The Dodgers are loathe to let anyone make 30 starts, and he had elbow tenderness in 2016, which as a Mets fan, automatically sets off warning bells. On the other hand, he has under 700 total innings pitched and may just be coming into his own. I kinda get it as an upside play, even if I like each of the next 3 pitchers more. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
The question is whether Wood's stamina can be improved by medication. If not, Wood may have to be extended by surgery. That's always a dicey proposition. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">6. Murica Thirst: Gerrit Cole, SP, Pirates.</span></b><br />
<br />
As a regular reader of Joe Sheehan's newsletter, I'm in complete agreement that the move to Houston is the best thing that could have happened to Cole. I have him as a dark horse Cy Young pick (18-1 right now!), so yeah, I like him a lot at 6. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="giphy-embed" frameborder="0" height="270" src="https://giphy.com/embed/Ow59c0pwTPruU" width="480"></iframe><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/castle-nathan-fillion-favourite-Ow59c0pwTPruU">via GIPHY</a><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">7. Stable Guinesses: Jose Quintana, SP, Cubs.</span></b><br />
<br />
To defend our pick, the guy's a horse for innings pitched, and strikes out plenty, and now gets the benefit of having an actual offense behind him to give him some run support for a full season. He may not have the highest ceiling, but the floor is pretty low. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
I was hoping he'd slide to me, so yeah. Good pick. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">8. Le Dupont Torkies: Jake Arrieta, SP, Phillies.</span></b><br />
<br />
I guess it's because he just signed, but 5Dimes does not have odds on Arrieta to win the Cy Young. For the NL, their longest shots are <b>Anthony Discalfani</b> and <b>Clayton Richard</b>, both at 500-1, and a quartet of pitchers at 300-1, including the hilariously misspelled "<b>Hosmer Bailey</b>." That should be Tucker's team name. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
By an interesting coincidence, "Hosmer Bailey" is the name of the old-timey prospector I referenced above!<br />
<br />
Sigh.<br />
<br />
Folks, it is not easy spicing up a list of #2 starters. Ang, why the hell did we decide to recap the fifth round of the draft? Can we just go back and recap the first round of last year's draft instead so that I can dunk on people? (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">9. Paging Dr. Rumack: Lance McCullers, SP, Astros.</span></b><br />
<br />
I recognize McCullers was lights out in the postseason, but there is next to no evidence that this guy can throw 140 innings a year, let alone be a #2 starter. As someone who's watched <b>Steven Matz</b> toil between the mound and operating table for the last three years, I can attest that there are few things more frustrating than young starters who tantalize with talent and can't stay healthy. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
[Shatters humerus] (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">10. CentralMassAll-Stars: David Price, SP, Red Sox.</span></b><br />
<br />
I'm trying to reconcile Teddy having a mashing Yankee outfielder and an overpaid, declining, misogynist Red Sox starter as the cornerstones on his roster. There's no way this ends badly. But hey, flags fly forever, even if they're made out of orange construction paper. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Yeah, he sucks and I hate him. Although I think it's more accurate to describe him as misanthropic generally than misogynist specifically. Whatever else <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/20146201/report-provides-details-david-price-dennis-eckersley-altercation-boston-red-sox-pitcher-mocked-cursed-nesn-broadcaster">you can say about <b>Dennis Eckersley</b></a>, he's hard to mistake for a woman. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">11. Stable Guinesses: Tommy Pham, OF, Cardinals.</span></b><br />
<br />
I think in June you could have gotten fairly long odds on the proposition that Tommy Pham would be the third position player off the board in the 2018 draft. I defer to Theodore for criticism of our pick, which I presume will be scathing. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
So, Pham was one of the approximately 15 useful OFs I pulled off the waiver wire last year. He was genuinely great--contributed in all categories, didn't miss too many games, enabled me to shout "<a href="https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=what%20up%20fam">What up, Pham?</a>" when I checked his stats after a good day, really a pleasure to have rostered. The issue is despite being close to a rookie in terms of service time, dude is 30. That means we likely just saw his career year. Among potentially useful OFs I discarded this offseason, I'd put him behind <b>Domingo Santana</b>. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">12. Murica Thirst: Kyle Hendricks, SP, Cubs.</span></b><br />
<br />
Which should you believe: the three seasons of being a #4 starter, or the one season (half a season, really) where he was great? Thought so. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Why did a NASCAR driver get drafted? (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">13. Angelo M. Grasseaux: Ken Giles, RP, Astros.</span></b><br />
<br />
I'm just going to put Giles' postseason line up here for review:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>7.2 IP</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>11.74 ERA</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>2.217 WHIP</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>0-2 record</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>2 saves</b><br />
<b>3 HR allowed</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>3 Wild pitches</b></div>
<br />
Enjoy Armando Benitez 2.0. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Yeah, this guy was the anti-Pham on my team last year. He really makes you taste the whole rainbow as a fantasy owner. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">14. The Spam Avengers: Daniel Murphy, 2B, Nationals.</span></b><br />
<br />
Oh, fuck you. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
I can't quite explain it, but this is exactly the right spot for this guy to go. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">15. The Darkest Timeline: Dick Hill, SP, Dodgers</span></b><br />
<br />
I found <a href="http://gowanusbaseball.blogspot.com/2009/06/transactions-analysis-boris-spassky.html">this TA</a> from June 2009 where Scot released Hill, then pitching for the Orioles, for something called <b>Randy Wells</b>, who I have zero recollection of existing or playing. A trip down a rabbit hole revealed that Wells was a Cubs starter who finished 6th in 2009 NL Rookie of the Year voting, trailing <b>Casey McGehee</b> (!), the next pick in this draft, <b>Dead Tommy Hanson</b>, the first iteration of <b>J.A. Happ</b>, and <b>Chris Coughlan</b>, who I completely forgot won that award. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Don't be modest: back in 2008 <a href="http://gowanusbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/03/transactions-analysis-pre-draft-2008.html">you referred to Hill as a "potential young stud</a>". The "young" part of that sentiment never really materialized, but he's one of a very few guys from back then still worthy of drafting early in 2018. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">16. A Lovely Tea Party: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Giants.</span></b><br />
<br />
And it's the 5th place finisher in the 2009 NL ROTY race. (Pop quiz: who was the '09 AL ROTY? He beat out the likes of <b>Rick Porcello</b>, <b>Brett Anderson</b> and <b>Elvis Andrus</b>, and earned 5.8 of his 5.9 career WAR in his first two seasons. Answer below.)<br />
<br />
As to Cutch, it all depends on what you want. Assuming health, he'll be fine in most categories, but the days of a .400 OBP and 20 steals are long gone. He's fine, I just have a hard time separating him out from the Jay Bruces of the world. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
I like the pick--unsexy veterans provide decent value in this league because everyone is willing to take flyers on young guys in hopes of finding a keeper. And nothing is less sexy than late-period Cutch. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">17. Wu Tang Financial: Robinson Cano, 2B, Mariners.</span></b><br />
<br />
It is so, so refreshing that the years change but the owners never do. Pre-draft, I would have put the odds on Cano being drafted by one of the Elders Brothers at 1-20. They didn't disappoint. We're all winners, really. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Wait wait, no, THIS is the best match of player and slot. In terms of raw value this is not great, but for a team that had guys locked up at pretty much every other position, getting the last playable 2B is a fine idea. (Teddy)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">18. Le Dupont Torkies: Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers.</span></b><br />
<br />
Never my cup of tea as a middling OBP shortstop, Andrus did have the distinction last year of leading baseball in Caught Stealing at 10. His spikes in doubles and HR seem a little out of place at age-29, query whether that was a combo of the juiced ball and career fluke, <b>Brady Anderson</b>-style. (El Angelo).<br />
<br />
Jesus, spicing up a list of middle-aged middle infielders is even harder than spicing up a list of #2 starters. I'm serious about retro-diarying last year to make up for this dreck. (Teddy)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b><span style="color: red;">19. Paging Dr. Rumack: A.J. Pollock, OF, Diamondbacks.</span></b><br />
<br />
I like this guy a lot as a rebound candidate. Of course there's a huge injury risk, but the upside is 30/30 if he can stay on the field. Nice pick at this point. (El Angelo)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">20. CMAS: Edwin Diaz, RP, Mariners.</span></b><br />
<br />
In a draft opener that lacked a Questionable Closer Run, it's a faint approximation of the same for my esteemed co-blogger to end this charade with a very good closer on a not-very good team. I'm pro targeting a specific category at this spot, so simply adding 35 saves to the roster while trying to repeat seems like a sound short-term strategy. In the words of baseball savant Chris Russo: "Good job by you Teddy!" (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
He sucks and I hate him. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
* * *<br />
<br />
(Answer to quiz: Andrew Bailey!)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-30312355723883365382017-11-03T08:30:00.000-04:002017-11-03T08:30:05.071-04:002017 Breeders Cup Preview Part II: Saturday's RacesWe've got nine races to cover, so let's dispense with the chitchat and get on to it.<br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Juvenile Fillies</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2yo girls. Last year's upset by <b>Champagne Room</b> at 33-1 continued the theme that in this race, you're best going with either a favorite or a bomb. Here is how the 33 winners have broken down by price:<br />
<br />
<b>Less than 2-1:</b> 9<br />
<b>2-1 to 3-1: </b>8<br />
<b>3-1 to 5-1:</b> 6<br />
<b>5-1 to 10-1:</b> 2<br />
<b>10-1 to 20-1:</b> 1<br />
<b>Over 20-1:</b> 7<br />
<br />
Even those stats don't tell the full story: of the three horses between 5-1 and 20-1, one was on a synthetic surface (<b>She Be Wild</b> in 2009). While the average win pay in this race is $22, the median is $6.70. In short, the worst play is a horse in mid-range odds. Either go with the favorites or look for a bomb.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> <b>Moonshine Memories</b> is 3-for-3 with two wins over the track and is a well-bred filly. She's a solid favorite but at the same time, she's never run particularly fast, and seemed to be running out of gas at the end of her prep race. Respect, but playing against.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> <b>Wonder Gadot</b> is making her dirt debut, but there's no reason to think that she won't take to the surface, as she's out of Medaglia d'Oro and a Vindication mare. And we think she may sit a nice trip - ignore all the 1's in her past performances, because those were on slowly run turf races. She's not going to outsprint some of these fillies into the first turn but won't be a stone closer either.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Spread. Honestly, if you're playing a Pick-something, our advice is to use Moonshine Memories defensively but focus on some bombs.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> We think there's going to be a lively pace in this race, which might set up for a closer. We're going to take a gamble that longshot <b>Stainless </b>is the one who gets up. A well-regarded Todd Pletcher horse, her last race was a toss-out because it was on the turf, except that it showed that she's in good form. But it's the prior start in the Adirondack Stakes that has us wondering if she's good and being overlooked: she fell to her face at the start and spotted the field at least a dozen lengths. She actually wound up running a little after that, but went wide on a day with a golden rail, and the race basically a toss out. As noted, since then she's worked well and had a useful prep that will likely throw everyone off the scent of a Pletcher/Velazquez horse with good breeding. She's going to be completely ignored in betting - she's 20-1 on the morning line, and we think she'll be longer than that. In a race without an obvious star, we think she rates as good a chance as any.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">1. Stainless</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">2. Wonder Gadot</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Moonshine Memories</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Turf Sprint</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> 5 furlongs on the turf for all comers. This is only the 4th time this race isn't at 6 1/2 furlongs, but in fairness, it's also only the 4th time it hasn't been run at Santa Anita with their bespoke turf chute. This remains an entertaining race to watch and a bear to handicap.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> <b>Lady Aurelia</b> is one of the odder horses you'll see all weekend: trained by Wesley Ward, she's only made 2 of her 7 starts in the States, and has otherwise run in Europe. And quite well: she won at Ascot both this year and last year, and has a Grade 1 win in France to boot. She's fast and talented, which bodes well here.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> <b>Cotai Glory </b>had some success sprinting overseas, and ran so-so at Woodbine in his last, but that may be because he encountered soft turf. Perhaps he rebounds on a firmer surface?<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Narrow. Usually we think this race is wide open for chaos. This year, we think there are three standouts.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> <b>Lady Aurelia</b> and <b>Marsha</b>, who beat her last out, tower over the field on speed figures, and both like 5 furlongs. It's dull, but we think they make up the exacta; gun to our heads, we prefer Lady Aurelia by a hair. The only domestic horse we're interested in is <b>Disco Partner</b>, who's had a really nice year and is a good sprinter, but 5 furlongs may be too short for him. We'll take him to round out the triple.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">1. Lady Aurelia</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">2. Marsha</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Disco Partner</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Filly and Mare Sprint</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> 7 furlongs on the dirt for the ladies 3 years old and up. Three year olds remain horrible bets in this field, as they're still winless. That factoid is going to get strongly tested this year by...<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> In March, <b>Unique Bella</b> was on everyone's short list of favorites for the Kentucky Oaks off her decisive wins at Santa Anita. Then she was injured and off the trail. Proving her quality, the horse she trounced in her last race, <b>Abel Tasman</b>, came back and won the Kentucky Oaks. She resurfaced last month in a 6 1/2 furlong prep race that she completely dominated. If she improves off of that, she'll be very tough to beat.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> <b>Proper Discretion</b> comes into this race with good early speed and at 10-for-17 record. Now yes, she's really only been running in Ohio, which isn't known for its high quality racing. On the other hand, she's going to be at least 30-1 and does like to sprint. She vaguely reminds of us <b>Work All Week</b>, who similarly seemed to be keeping cheap company but was a distance specialist, and popped the field in the 2014 Sprint. Just saying.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Narrow. There are a bunch of horses in here that have spent the entire year beating up on each other and running blah speed figures - we're looking at you, <b>By the Moon</b>, <b>Finleysluckycharm</b>, <b>Paulassilverlining</b>, <b>Carina Mia</b> and <b>Highway Star</b>. We're inclined to toss them all and go with horses with some upside.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> Our strategy here is to include Unique Bella both on top and underneath in exactas and trifectas along with a few who have been a little removed from the usual filly and mare sprint circuit. The one we like the most is <b>Ami's Mesa</b>, who's great at 7 furlongs, but has never run on the dirt before. If she adapts well, we think she'll get a nice trip just off the pace and could pull off an upset at a nice price. Underneath, we'll use <b>Curlin's Approval</b>, who likes the distance, <b>Bar of Gold</b>, who's cutting back, and last year's winner, <b>Finest City,</b> in case she wakes up.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">1. Ami's Mesa</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">2. Unique Bella</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Curlin's Approval </span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Filly and Mare Turf</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> 1 1/8 miles on the turf for the ladies. This is the shortest distance for this race, it's always been either 1 1/4 or 1 3/8 miles. Del Mar's turf can't do a race at 1 1/4 miles because of its configuration, but it's odd that they chose to go to this short a distance, rather than longer. We're not pleased.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> Possibly the best story of the entire weekend is <b>Lady Eli's</b> attempt to win her second Breeders Cup race. She won the Juvenile Fillies Turf three years ago, then in the middle of her 3yo season came down with laminitis and nearly died. Not only did live and make it back to the track, she's been amazing: 4 wins and 3 seconds in 7 starts, including a loss by a nose in this race last year to <b>Queen's Trust</b> (who also returns). She has an outside chance at Horse of the Year if she pulls this off.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> Time for our annual promotion of a Shug McGaughey horse that we claim has a chance. <b>War Flag</b> is a regally-bred filly that exits a win in the Flower Bowl - a Grade 1 prep for this race - that is largely going to be forgotten because she's shortening up in distance and travelling across the country. She has some knocks, but if she's 15-1 or higher, she's a must-use.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Either single or spread. If you think Lady Eli is a lock, then just single her and move on. If you don't, there are a lot of different directions you can go.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> We're squarely in the Lady Eli camp and think she's one of the most likely win candidates all weekend. We think the real way to make money in this race is with exactas, trifectas and superfectas, because we don't love a lot of the other horses that will take money. Specifically, we think <b>Grand Jete</b> is overhyped, <b>Dacita </b>wants more distance, <b>Avenge</b> will get cooked on the front end, and <b>Queen's Trust</b> is just not in great form. We're much more interested in trying some bombs underneath, such as War Flag, <b>Nezwaah </b>(who might have just hated soft turf in her last) and <b>Wuheida</b>, who may be getting good fast. But to us this race is all about Lady Eli. Let's hope she does something special and memorable.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">1. Lady Eli</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">2. War Flag</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Nezwaah</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Sprint</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> 6 furlongs on the dirt for the fast and furious. One of the biggest mistakes we perpetually make in this race is predicting a pace meltdown because of all the fast runners and picking a closer. The truth is that front-runners and stalkers dominate this race, having won 17 of the last 20 editions. Oddly, the only three closers in that time period (<b>Midnight Lute</b> twice and <b>Secret Circle</b>) were trained by Bob Baffert, who also trains...<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> <b>Drefong</b>, who won this race fairly impressively last year and is back to defend his title off a short campaign: a start out west where his jockey was thrown leaving the gate, and a decisive score at Saratoga in late August. That's it. That's his entire campaign. We'd laugh at it, but Baffert's won this race five times, and his runners have had campaigns of 4, 4, 1, 1 and 3 races, respectively. The man knows what he's doing.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> One of the most consistent themes in this race is to take a horse that has had a lot of success at 6 furlongs; horses shortening up or stretching out are terrible bets. For the epitome of this, we give you <b>Whitmore</b>, who's won 7 of 9 starts at 6 furlongs, and finished third in the other two starts. He was the leading sprinter in the country until early June, when he ran a bad 3rd in the True North, followed by a layoff, then a blah third in the DeFrancis at Laurel Park. He did win his last race, so maybe he's rounding back into form. At 15-1 or so, he's worth a second look, even though he's a closer.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Spread. Honestly, we like our pick a lot, but we wouldn't be shocked with a win by about half the field.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> <b>Takaful</b> seemed to lose his way on the Triple Crown trail earlier this year, so the excellent Kiaran McLaughlin gave him a rest, then brought him back at a sprint at Saratoga this summer, and was rewarded with an emphatic win at 6 furlongs. He then ran him in the Jerkens at 7 furlongs, where he dueled through quick fractions and was passed late by <b>Practical Joke</b> - who is a typical example of a good 1-turn horse that would be a bet-against at 6 furlongs - and then backed it up in the Vosburgh. We think he's developed into an ace sprinter, and think he validates it here with a wire-to-wire victory over last year's champ and <b>Roy H</b>, who's had a really nice year and is far from out of this.<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="color: purple;">1. Takaful</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">2. Roy H</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Drefong</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Mile</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> A mile on the turf for all comers. While the Euros have done well in this race (having won 13 of 33 editions), the two biggest outfits, Coolmore and Godolphin, have never won this race in over 50 tries. Given that they make up 29% of the field this year, this might be relevant.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> <b>Ribchester </b>has had a solid year: a 3rd place finish in Dubai at a mile and an eighth to start the year, then 5 Grade 1 races at a mile in Europe with 3 wins and 2 close seconds. He's a horse that's tough to toss, but is also tough to take at a short price. Our interest in him is a lot higher if he's 3-1; if he's 7-5, meh.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> Bill Mott won this race last year with <b>Tourist</b>, and this year brings the improving <b>Ballagh Rocks</b>, who's run some nice races at a mile this year. We think he's probably a year away from actually winning the race, but he's got tactical speed and we could see him hanging around for a piece of the trifecta. For a complete bomb to hit the board, <b>Om</b> is a very unlikely win candidate but always runs well at Del Mar and likes a mile.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Narrow. We're skeptical of some of the horses that will take action here. <b>World Approval</b> seems to have woken up at a mile, but his win at Saratoga was over a complete bog, and he beat absolutely nobody in a paceless, oddly run Woodbine Mile. We're not buying <b>Suedois </b>against better Euros. <b>Lancaster Bomber</b> has still only won once. <b>Roly Poly</b> has talent but she's going to go to the lead. It's almost impossible to wire the field in the Mile, and we think she'll be fried by the far turn. As will <b>Heart to Heart</b>.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> Ribchester merits respect, but we're even more interested in <b>Zelzal</b>, who last year was a highly touted and successful 3 year old but has had a trying season as a 4 year old. He ran pretty well in her first start of the year on firm turf, closing well but failing to catch the excellent <b>Tareef </b>(who would probably be our pick here). His next two starts were Grade 1s on softer turf that he didn't like, and yet, he didn't run horribly in either of them. We think he'll appreciate the addition of Lasix, getting firmer turf, and having a strong pace to run at. We'll take him to post an upset (he's 20-1 on the morning line) over Ribchester and Ballagh Rocks.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">1. Zelzal</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">2. Ribchester</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Ballagh Rocks</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Juvenile</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2 year old colts. One consistent theme when this race is in California is to ignore the New York horses - in the last 25 years, only <b>Shanghai Bobby</b> has shipped from the Empire State and won. You're much better off staying with the locals or Kentucky horses.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> <b>Bolt d'Oro</b> is likely the heaviest favorite on the weekend: three wins in California, including a blow out win in the prep for the Juvenile at a very fast time. This looks like a serious racehorse.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> <b>US Navy Flag</b> might have been favored in the Juvenile Turf, but Aidan O'Brien has decided to run him here instead, even though all 10 of his starts have been on the sod and his dam was a pure turfer. That said, whenever a European has won this race, he's been well-raced, and 10 starts as a two year old certainly qualifies.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Single. Some will make a case against Bolt d'Oro. It won't be us.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> Since we're pro a favorite that will be around even money, let's talk about underneath. We're very meh on <b>Firenze Fire</b> and <b>Free Drop Billy</b>, the winners of the Kentucky and New York preps, and are much more interested in horses that finished second last out. <b>Good Magic</b> is still a maiden but improved in the Champagne for Chad Brown, and we think he's ready to take a step forward. We don't think <b>Solomini </b>will close the 8 length gap he lost to Bolt d'Oro in his last, but think he'll run well again. This isn't the best betting race of the day - hopefully we can see stardom instead.<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="color: purple;">1. Bolt d'Oro</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">2. Good Magic</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Solomini</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Turf</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> 1 1/2 miles on the turf for the long-winded. 10 of the last 12 editions have been won either by horses based in Europe or European horses that relocated to America for the year (<b>Main Sequence</b>). Recently, their domination has been even more stark: they've swept the last four exactas, comprised the entire triple in 2014, and last year made up the entire superfecta. If you're going to use an American horse, you'd best be hoping for weak Euros and a really good Yankee.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> A couple of horses could be favored, but we think it'll probably be <b>Beach Patrol</b>, who's domestically based and won the Arlington Million and Hirsch Classic for trainer Chad Brown. He's a perfectly fine horse, but we're not seeing greatness here. In the Million, he barely beat <b>Fanciful Angel</b>, who was a third-tier Euro, and will be 30-1 on Saturday. His Hirsch was marginally better as he beat Fanciful Angel by a larger margin, but largely because he just sat a perfect trip. He looks like a good bet-against.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> There are a few, but let's focus for the moment on <b>Cliffs of Moher</b>, who is one of three horses Aidan O'Brien is sending and likely the one to get ignored. Impeccably bred and very well-regarded by the Coolmore family, he was an excellent second in the Epsom Derby earlier this year, and has since had tough trips over soft goings while competing against the best of Europe. He needs to move up a little on speed figures, but he should stalk the pace and may get first run on the closers. At 20-1 or so, he's intriguing. <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Spread. There are a lot of potential winners here. We're not going to pick either <b>Ulysses </b>or <b>Highland Reel - </b>we're a little underwhelmed with the former's form, and think the latter will get cooked on the front end by Oscar Performance - but they're not without chance and we'll use them defensively in multi-race wagers. <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> In multi-race wagers we will use <b>Cliffs of Moher</b> and probably a little of <b>Talismanic </b>and <b>Seventh Heaven</b>, but our main interest is in Decorated Knight, who's had an excellent season with 3 Grade 1's in Ireland and Dubai, including in the Irish Champion Stakes last out, which has produced a number of BC Turf winners (<b>Pilsudski</b>, <b>Daylami</b>, <b>High Chapparal</b>, <b>Fantastic Light</b>) plus others who ran 2nd (<b>The Fugue</b>, <b>Golden Horn</b>, and if we're being cute, <b>Giant's Causeway</b> and <b>Swain </b>albeit in dirt races). The knock on him is that he's never raced at the Turf distance of 12 furlongs, but we're not particularly concerned - the breeding seems fine for the distance, and we like that he has tactical speed. We'll take him to post a minor upset.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">1. Decorated Knight</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">2. Cliffs of Moher</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Ulysses</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Classic</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> 1 1/4 miles on the dirt for whoever's brave enough. Again we're pressed for time so we're not doing a separate post on the Classic, even though we think it's a neat race.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> The only thing that's gone wrong for <b>Gun Runner</b> this year was a ban that kept him from running in the $10 million Pegasus stakes in January. Since skipping that race, he's won 4 of 5 starts, including dominating wins in the Stephen Foster, Whitney and Woodward, a very prestigious trifecta to pull off. He's quick, has tactical speed, and should be at his best coming into this race. A very tough, legitimate favorite.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>The Defending Champ</b></span>: Three months ago, people were saying that <b>Arrogate</b> was the greatest horse of the century, as his Travers-Classic-Pegasus-World Cup wins were all sublime in their own way. Then he came back in the San Diego Handicap, and finished a well-beaten 4th as the 1-20 favorite, while showing no interest in running. He ran faster in the Pacific Classic a month later, but still lost and had to be heavily urged to get to second. We see a horse that's lost interest in running and is going to be wildly overbet. We're against completely, while still admitting that we wouldn't be upset to see him run back to his earlier form. <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> Some year, Aidan O'Brien is going to win this race with a European shipper. He barely missed in 2000 with <b>Giant's Causeway</b> and was pretty damn close a few years ago with <b>Declaration of War</b>. Now he brings two horses to the race making their dirt debuts. We're not at all interested in <b>Churchill</b>, but the lightly-raced <b>War Decree</b> is very intriguing. In his last, he raced on synthetic, showed some tactical speed, and annihilated his competition in the stretch. At 20-1 or so, he's very interesting on the come.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Narrow. We are against a few horses that are going to take some action at the windows. In addition to Arrogate, we're not seeing it for <b>Collected</b>, who we think won the Pacific Classic because Arrogate wasn't operating at 100% (we're not buying the speed figure for either horse) and got a relatively easy lead. Here, he's going to get fried by <b>Diversify</b>, who we think is a neat story with no chance. We have no interest in Cupid, who's just too slow. Finally, <b>Pavel</b> might be the horse we want the most in 2018, but he's making his 5th career here and has only a maiden and Grade 3 win to his name. This is a tough spot to get your first Grade 1 win.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> We think this entire race is going to be a cat-and-mouse game between Gun Runner and <b>West Coast</b>, who's coming into this race in great form with five straight wins, including the Travers and Pennsylvania Derby. While either can show early speed, we think both will sit off Collected and Diversify and make their moves on the turn to duke it out in the stretch. We think West Coast has the slightest edge in upside and distance pedigree, which is why we're picking him to beat out Gun Runner in the stretch, and incredibly, gives Bob Baffert his <i>fourth</i> straight Breeders Cup Classic winner.<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: purple;"><b>1. West Coast</b></span><br />
<span style="color: purple;"><b>2. Gun Runner</b></span><br />
<span style="color: purple;"><b>3. War Decree</b></span><br />
<br />
Enjoy Breeders Cup day everyone! El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-79962728290579013242017-11-02T08:30:00.000-04:002017-11-02T08:30:02.195-04:002017 Breeders Cup Preview Part I: Friday's RacesIt's time for our annual exercise in hubris, self-immolation and embarrassment: our Breeders Cup preview! We are well aware that we're setting ourselves up for disaster by trying to preview 13 races, some of which we don't particularly like, but we're willing to take a chance of being wrong once in a while.<br />
<br />
Speaking of which, how did we do last year? We nailed two winners: <b>Beholder </b>in the Distaff and <b>Classic Empire</b> in the Juvenile. And we hit the Juvenile exacta by picking <b>Not This Time</b> for second, which paid $39. Beyond that, if you squinted, there were picks that could have made you money:<br />
<ul>
<li>We picked <b>Coasted </b>and <b>Cavale Doree</b> to run 2-3 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, which they did, at 23-1 and 15-1, respectively. Unfortunately, our pick to win (<b>Spain Burg</b>) was horrible.</li>
<li>We picked <b>Queen's Trust</b> to run 2nd in the Filly Turf; she won at 8-1.</li>
<li>We selected <b>Om</b> to win the Turf Sprint; he ran second at 13-2, and was a nose from winning.</li>
<li>We gave <b>Finest City </b>our designation of "price horse to consider" in the Filly Sprint and picked her to come 2nd, she won at 8-1.</li>
<li>We picked <b>California Chrome</b> and <b>Arrogate </b>in the top two slots (once <b>Shaman Ghost</b> scratched), they ran 2-1. Okay fine, everyone did that.</li>
</ul>
<div>
So let's get back to it and see if we can come a little closer to running the table this year, and break down the races by describing the circumstances, the favorites, some price horses we like, our thoughts on how to bet the race, and our picks. We'll do Friday's 4 races today and Saturday's 9 tomorrow. As usual, we're assuming the track is fast and the turf is firm both days, and without a major bias. This year we're at Del Mar, which is a gorgeous track with smaller stretch runs, so we're largely shying away from deep closers.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Juvenile Fillies Turf</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> 1 mile on the turf for 2 year old girls. Domestic runners have taken 7 of the 9 editions of this race, with 3 of those winners coming from Chad Brown's barn. What's curious is that the two foreign runners were trained by Charles Hills and Michael Delzangles - both fine trainers, but two men who have had limited runners and success in the United States.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> Chad Brown is the leading trainer in America, has had a ton of success in this race, and saddles <b>Rushing Falls</b>, who is 2-for-2 with an explosive win at Keeneland last out. She's a solid yet beatable favorite, as her speed figures give her no advantage over a bunch of horses here, including her stablemate <b>Significant Form</b>.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> <b>Moon Dash</b> lost by a nose at Santa Anita's prep race for this and cost $650,000 at auction. If there's enough pace up front - which is questionable - then she's got a chance to rally stoutly and catch a piece.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Spread. Chad Brown and Aidan O'Brien have the likely top 4 betting choices and we find it hard to draw a line between most of them.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> It's somehow amazing that O'Brien has won a gazillion Breeders Cup races but has never won this race or the Filly and Mare Turf. And it can't be that he can't train fillies - the filly <b>Found </b>won the Turf two years ago. Regardless, <b>Happily </b>is probably the most accomplished horse he's ever brought to this race - she owns 4 careers wins, including 2 Grade 1s, and is in top form. Plus she's regally bred - she's a full sister to multiple Grade 1 winner <b>Gleneagles </b>and her mother is a full to the accomplished <b>Giant's Causeway</b>. O'Brien has already broken the record for most Grade 1 wins in a season - our guess he pads that record right off the bat.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">1. Happily</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">2. Significant Form</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Rushing Fall</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Dirt Mile</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> A mile on the dirt for all comers. This usually is one of our least favorite races on the cards because we think it pulls interesting runners out of multiple races (Sprint, Classic, Filly Sprint, even the regular Mile) to put them together in a somewhat meaningless heat. But this year it's attracted a nice collection of horses that actually belong in a 1-mile race, so we're kinda curious .<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> This could go a few ways, but we're going to guess it'll land on <b>Mor Spirit</b>, who's won the Met Mile back in June on Belmont day with a smashing performance and a very high speed figure. The problem is that's the last race he won, and he hasn't been seen in nearly 5 months. This is not an easy race to win off a long layoff.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> <b>Iron Fist</b> has not been winning at the best tracks in America - his wins this year came in Washington, Iowa and Oklahoma. But he has never been worst than 3rd in his 7 starts at a mile, which also includes 5 wins, and reports are that he's working out well. We love distance specialists, he's a solid one.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Narrow. We think there are four horses a rung above the others in this race and are against two of them. We don't love <b>Mor Spirit</b> off the long layoff, and are against <b>Accelerate</b>, who we think is going to get fried once he meets tougher speed up front. Also, some people like <b>Battle of Midway</b>. We don't.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> <b>Sharp Azteca</b> has a big shot if he runs his best race, but we're concerned that he's going to get fried up front with Accelerate and some others. We really like Cupid, who is Bob Baffert's 5th or 6th best horse, that is to say, talented but a notch below the elite horses in America. He has tactical speed and should rate a nice trip off the front runners. For 3rd, we'll take 3 year old <b>Practical Joke</b>, who never wins at 2 turns but usually catches a piece.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">1. Cupid</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">2. Sharp Azteca</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Practical Joke</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Juvenile Turf</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> A mile on the grass for 2 year old colts. Remember how we said Americans did well in the filly edition of this race? The exact opposite is true here. Europeans have won 7 of the 10 races, and one of the other three was owned by the Coolmore connections and spent half his year in Europe. <b>Oscar Performance's</b> win last year was the only time since 2010 that a "True American" won this race.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> This looks like one of those races where any of 4 horses can be favored and we think we'll see a miasma of horses between 4-1 and 6-1. Our guess is favoritism will land on <b>James Garfield</b>, which has to be one of the most unlikely names for a European racehorse ever. We fully expect to see a steed named Millard Fillmore in next year's Italian Derby.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> <b>Flameaway</b> is going to be completely ignored in the betting, but that might be a huge mistake. A $400,000 purchase trained by Mark Casse, he's won 3 of 4 starts but has never actually run on the turf, as twice he's been rained off. His breeding is very good for the grass, and he looks to have tactical speed. This looks like a horse that can make a huge move forward going dirt to turf. Very, very live at a big price.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Spread. You can make a case for over half the field here.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> Godolphin has been relatively quiet in the Breeders Cup recently - they did win this race with <b>Outstrip</b> 4 years ago, but they have entered far fewer horses than they did a decade or two ago. Which is in part why we're intrigued by <b>Masar</b>, who ran a nice 3rd on the Arc undercard last month, finishing close to Happily. If we like her, we probably should like him as well. We'll take him over <b>Voting Control</b>, who we think will close into a solid pace for Chad Brown, and our bomb.<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="color: purple;">1. Masar</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">2. Flameaway</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Voting Control</span></b><br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="color: blue;">Distaff</span></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Synopsis:</span></b> 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for fillies and mares 3 years old and up. This race is usually a lot of fun for those of us that like the sport of racing, but it's generally a bad spot to make money. In 33 runnings, only 6 winners have been at odds greater than 10-1, and there hasn't been one since <b>Round Pond</b> in 2006. Some would argue that means we're due for a bomb. Unfortunately, there are only 8 horses in this year's heat.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Favorite:</span></b> <b>Stellar Wind</b> has three grade 1 wins this year, is undefeated at Del Mar, and has consistently run higher speed figures than most of the field. But there are some issues with her. One is that she's clearly not as fast as last year, though it may not matter. The second is she hasn't run since late July, and is coming in off a 3-month layoff. Historically, that's not how you win this race: only three times has a horse won this race without running in the prior 5 weeks, and only twice has it been more than two months. (Ironically, one of those was <b>Stopchargingmaria</b>'s<b> </b>defeat of Stellar Wind two years ago.) The third is that she's a 5 year old, and the only horses that have won at that age or older were Hall of Famers (<b>Bayakoa</b>, <b>Beholder</b>) or a bomb (<b>One Dreamer</b>). Stellar Wind is neither. We wouldn't toss, but are skeptical.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Price Horse to Consider:</span></b> There are nine horses running over the weekend that have won Breeders Cup races, and the first is in this race, as <b>Champagne Room</b> tries to pull off the Juvenile Fillies-Distaff double, which only Beholder has done. She's only had two starts this year, but her comeback wasn't bad (albeit against nobody) and there's reason to suspect she'll improve here. At 15-1, she's not the craziest idea.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Betting Approach:</span></b> Narrow. There are only 8 horses in this race to begin with, and we don't think <b>Mopotism </b>has any chance at all. We also don't particularly love either of <b>Elate</b> or <b>Abel Tasman</b>; we think the former earned her Grade 1 laurels beating up on subpar fields, and think the latter is going the wrong way, as evidence by her goofy rides in the last two races where she made odd middle moves. Finally, <b>Romantic Vision</b> is in good form, but this looks to be a bit over her head.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Selections:</span></b> The big question is whether <b>Paradise Woods</b> will be able to dominate this race on the front end. Her Santa Anita Oaks and Zenyatta wins showed a horse that flaunted her speed and never looked back. By contrast, in the Kentucky Oaks she was pressed every step of the way by another front-runner and was fried by the top of the stretch. We're willing to look past the Kentucky Oaks in part because it was in the slop, but mainly, because California tracks are much more generous to speed than Kentucky, and the Distaff is usually won by horses with early or tactical speed. We don't think anyone's going to <i>really</i> press her on the front end, and that she can simply wire the field. Underneath, we'll use the favorite plus <b>Forever Unbridled</b>, who's not without chance, but we think won't love the shorter Del Mar stretch.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>1. Paradise Woods</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>2. Forever Unbridled</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>3. Stellar Wind</b></span><br />
<br />
<b>Coming up tomorrow</b>: our preview of the nine (!) races on the main card. El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-10777439453063532342017-06-08T16:30:00.000-04:002017-06-08T16:30:19.280-04:002017 Belmont PreviewBlaaaaah.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVq_zo3E5gK_hIzSp9odbU_KuXptLnbDXpSER817TcMdofOkBHjyW55mGNoiKVsEQdV0519cdBAKxgoltdpCkNoDTYo7i6TAqUpWLHOTIeNDCtKFKKoz0wP7_mNg51OrNuYTb7qbvVr3Jy/s1600/nostril.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="315" data-original-width="475" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVq_zo3E5gK_hIzSp9odbU_KuXptLnbDXpSER817TcMdofOkBHjyW55mGNoiKVsEQdV0519cdBAKxgoltdpCkNoDTYo7i6TAqUpWLHOTIeNDCtKFKKoz0wP7_mNg51OrNuYTb7qbvVr3Jy/s320/nostril.jpeg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Cloud Computing's narrow victory</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
That's to both the Preakness and the Belmont. We are eternal optimists when it comes to horse racing, but it's tough not to be annoyed by this year's result in the Preakness and the last leg of the Triple Crown. Our pick of <b>Classic Empire</b> was spot on and our tapping of <b>Cloud Computing</b> as the lone outsider with a chance was good too. But Classic Empire was sapped of just enough energy that he couldn't hold off the latter. So much for a solid pick.<br />
<br />
And now we have a Belmont that lacks both of those two horses plus Derby winner Almost Dreaming. We're also missing other horses that took money in the Derby - looking at your <b>Gunnevara</b>, <b>McCracken</b> - and Derby third place finisher Battle of Midway. That leaves us with an intriguing betting race but one that's probably not going to result in a coronation. Nevertheless, let's take a look at it. <br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><i>At Least the Weather's Supposed to Be Nice</i></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>12. Hollywood Handsome. </b></span>(<b>Morning Line: 30-1; Fair Value: 50-1</b>) Dallas Stewart is known for having longshots run at huge prices in the Derby and Preakness - <b>Golden Soul</b>, <b>Tale of Verve</b>, <b>Commanding Curve</b>, to name three. But he's never been remotely competitive in the Belmont, and this slow guy who was throttled at a huge price in the Illinois Derby by Multiplier seems unlikely to break the streak.<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;"><b>11. Multiplier</b>. </span><b> (ML: 15-1; FV: 50-1)</b> Speak of the devil! Purely sprint-bred, he clunked up for a boring 6th in the Preakness. Adding blinkers will add speed, but it won't add stamina, which this guy needs in spades.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>10. Twisted Tom. </b></span><b>(ML: 20-1; FV: 33-1) </b>On the plus side, he's trained by Chad Brown (Cloud Computing's trainer) and has three straight wins. On the negative side, he's never topped 80 on the Gowanus Speed Figure scale. If quite literally anyone else trained this horse, he'd be double the price he'll be on Saturday.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><i>In a Word: No.</i></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>9. Epicharis.</b></span> (<b>ML: 4-1; FV: 50-1)</b> We were against this guy before word came down that he's being treated with Bute because of lameness - the chances of him scratching are pretty high. But putting that aside, this Japanese import that ran his last race in Dubai,
he ran 2nd in the UAE Derby by setting a soft pace against 3rd-tier
horses. Either he's going to the front and should get fried on a
quicker pace, or he's just not that fast and won't be a factor <br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>8. Senior Investment.</b></span> (<b>ML: 12-1; FV: 33-1)</b> Horses that run non-threatening 2nds and 3rds
in the Preakness are dreadful bets in the Belmont, as they never, ever, ever
improve in those 3 weeks in between and pull off the upset. Some recent examples are <b>Classic
Cat</b> ('99), <b>Impeachment</b> ('01), <b>Hemingway's Key</b> ('06), <b>Ichabad Crane </b>
('08), <b>Tale of Verve</b> ('15) and <b>Cherry Wine</b> ('16). <i>None</i> of these horses did anything in the Belmont. There's no reason to expect this steed will break that streak.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>7. Lookin at Lee. </b></span>(<b>ML: 5-1; FV: 20-1)</b> His regression in the Preakness was easy to see
coming; he finished 4th basically because Always Dreaming spit the bid
and the rest of the field stunk. Dead closers like him are always at a
disadvantage in the Belmont, as are horses that are pure "clunk up"
types that never make a winning move. Look for him to be nowhere near
the picture at the end and to take a well-deserved rest.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>6. Gormley. </b></span>(<b>ML: 8-1; FV: 12-1</b>) We're still waiting for him to finish in the money in a difficult race. The wait will continue on Saturday evening.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><i><b>Stranger Things Have Happened</b></i></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>5. Meantime. </b></span>(<b>ML: 15-1; FV: 10-1</b>) He is making his 5th career start and some upside. We thought his Peter Pan was a decent effort, and are curious about him moving back to a fast track. His breeding isn't as good for a distance but it's not inconceivable, and trainer Brian Lynch isn't terrible, to say nothing of jockey Mike Smith. At a solid price, he's a little intriguing. <br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><i>Contenders on the Rebound</i></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>4. Irish War Cry. </b></span>(<b>ML: 7-2; FV: 5-1)</b> This has to be one of the weakest and strangest favorites we've had in a Triple Crown race in ages. His last race was a 10th place finish in the Derby where he lost by 16 lengths and lost ground badly from the far turn on. He's been brutally bad in two of his last three races. But yet, he has run 2 quick races this year, was sired by Curlin, and beat Cloud Computing in his last race. So he's far from impossible. It just seems like an odd horse to take on as the favorite. <br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue;"><b>3. Tapwrit. </b></span> (<b>ML: 6-1; FV: 5-1)</b> And here's your second choice, a horse that has lost consecutive starts by double-digit lengths and has never won outside of Florida. There's a few things here to like if he rebounds and gets a good trip, and we admit, his Derby was something of a toss-out. It's a pure question of price: at his expected odds, meh, but at double the price, sure.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>2. J Boys Echo.</b></span> (<b>ML: 15-1; FV: 5-1</b>) The owner of the best speed figure in the entire
field, he ran a huge Gotham at Aqueduct 3 months ago, which put him
squarely in the picture of possible Derby contenders. He followed that
up with an utterly blah 4th in the Blue Grass and a non-existent 15th in
the Kentucky Derby, so it's not like he's coming in off good form. But
there's reason to be a little optimistic. His breeding is fine for 12 furlongs.
He's run well in New York (albeit at Aqueduct). Trainer Dale Romans
is excellent, and is going to win this race one day. He has tactical
speed. And he's getting back jockey Robby Albarado, who rode him to his
best races. We think hasn't had
the chance to run his best race in three months and may sit a good trip at a price.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><i>The Pick</i></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>1. Patch. </b></span>(<b>ML: 12-1; FV: 4-1</b>) Way overmatched in the Derby (especially from the 20
post), he does have solid distance breeding - his sire and damsire both
won the Belmont - and does have the Pletcher/Velazquez combination. And
this is only his 5th start. He's as likely as anyone to make The Leap
and pull off an upset if he moves forward, and we're banking on that by picking him. We don't think he'll be as long as his morning line price, but even if he's 10-1, that's solid value. We think Todd & John pull off one of the odder Triple Crown doubles this year, and take it in a small upset.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><i>How to Wager</i></b></span><br />
<br />
Well our pick is going to be a decent price, so make sure you bet him to win. But this is truly a spread race - make sure you're covered well in your pick-everythings. Good luck to all!El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-32166842116002988732017-05-19T06:00:00.000-04:002017-05-19T06:00:52.936-04:002017 Preakness Preview<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6X4IyuRNK1yLZ4FSued51i-A6bOLCGp3fXYOhB8se5nb0WNSBlXxmx83SHrdmEeZxEAZFU4dBUW4c13b6IYBn3QPwQJ77keCqiDnyfn9b0frH4iQE_YV9uYfKSKGkzZ3TdJQkHqVgWGxJ/s1600/always+dreaming.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6X4IyuRNK1yLZ4FSued51i-A6bOLCGp3fXYOhB8se5nb0WNSBlXxmx83SHrdmEeZxEAZFU4dBUW4c13b6IYBn3QPwQJ77keCqiDnyfn9b0frH4iQE_YV9uYfKSKGkzZ3TdJQkHqVgWGxJ/s320/always+dreaming.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Sometimes there's a narrative coming out of the Derby how either the winner was an inspiring tale, or how the best horse didn't win the race for X, Y and Z reason. We have neither of those this year. <b>Always Dreaming</b> was an emphatic winner of the Derby, and to steal a good friend's line, was "much the best." Sure, a few of the also-rans behind him didn't fare so well, but it's hard to argue that a bad trip kept them from winning. Always Dreaming was well clear of his second place finisher, and the 3rd place finisher was losing ground at the end. It was a very nice performance.<br />
<br />
But can he repeat? Let's take a look at this year's Preakness field which, charitably, can be called top-heavy. We'll assume the track is fast and fair again.<br />
<br />
<i><b><span style="color: blue;">We're Not Interested</span></b></i><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">10. Term of Art.</span> </b> (<b>Morning Line: 30-1; Fair Value: 100-1)</b> Well, he outran his odds in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year, when he was 90-1 and actually beat two horses in the field. The only reason to back him is because he's adding blinkers and gets a new jockey. A few will see that as a chance. We see it as change for the sake of change. <br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">9. Senior Investment. </span>(ML; 30-1; FV: 50-1)</b> Trainer Ken McPeek has been known for pulling rabbits out of his hat when it appeared that he had no chance - think of <b>Golden Ticket</b> in the Travers at 35-1, or more importantly, <b>Sarava</b> in the Belmont at 70-1. That's about the only case for his horse. By the way, that's now two horses and two dead closers. This is a theme you'll see here: this race is chock full of runners that like to come from well out of it and little in the way of pace.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">8. Multiplier.</span> (ML: 30-1; FV: 50-1)</b> A slow horse that exits a 3rd-tier race and has crack sprinter breeding written all over him. Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">7. Conquest Mo Money.</span> (ML: 15-1; FV: 50-1)</b> Some will bet this guy because he finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby on the heels of running decently at Sunland Park. We're unimpressed. His tactical speed means that he'll actually be prominent in this race, but we're of the opinion he's a Grade 3 horse that should be running in the undercard.<br />
<br />
<i><b><span style="color: blue;">The Wrong Derby Horses</span></b></i><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">6. Lookin at Lee. </span>(ML: 10-1; FV: 33-1) </b> His runner-up finish in the Derby was the perfect confluence of circumstances. He had a solid pace to run at. He drew a wet track, which he likes. He drew the rail, which helped him on a track where the rail was advantageous. And jockey Corey Lanierie gave him a <i>perfect</i> ride by never leaving the rail. He rallied stoutly but never threatened the winner, and after all that, <i>still</i> didn't crack a triple digit speed figure. A perfect candidate to regress.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">5. Gunnevara.</span> (ML: 15-1; FV: 25-1)</b> It's looking like this guy peaked three races ago and is on the downcycle. The switch to jockey Mike Smith might rekindle some effort, but what's more likely is he needs some time off to recuperate.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">4. Hence.</span> (ML: 20-1; FV: 20-1) </b> We're willing to completely disregard his Derby - bad start, bad trip, was much further back then he probably wanted to be, and had difficulty rallying in the mud. We think he may run back to his Sunland Park Derby, which would be fine, just not fine enough to win. Keep an eye on him in wagering - if he does get near his morning line odds, a saver win bet on him is not the worst idea.<br />
<br />
<i><b><span style="color: blue;">The Lone Longshot</span></b></i><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">3. Cloud Computing. </span> (ML: 12-1; FV: 12-1) </b> If you're going to go with an outsider, this is the one to focus on. Well-bred for the distance, this Chad Brown steed broke his maiden impressively at Aqueduct, followed up by a pretty nice 2nd in the Gotham, then a middling 3rd in the Wood Memorial. Brown didn't bother entering him in the Derby or running him in some other race in between, deciding instead to train up to the Preakness, for which he's been working out splendidly. And Brown is very good training a horse with this amount of rest.<br />
<br />
There are some pretty clear holes here. He's never won a stakes race, hell, he's never won anything better than a maiden race. The Wood's form is suspect. He's never run anywhere besides Ozone Park. And recently, horses that skip the Derby are generally bad win plays in the Preakness: <b>Red Bullet</b> pulled it off in '00 - and he would have been the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby had he run - but other than that, it was only a phenom (<b>Bernardini</b> '06) or a Hall of Famer (<b>Rachel Alexandra</b> '09) who managed to do it. We've seen nothing thus far to indicate that he's that good. But he has tactical speed and upside - this is only his 4th start after all. And it's not odd for a new shooter to finish in the money: while Derby horses have won 17 of the last 20 Preaknesses, a new shooter has finished in the triple 16 of the last 20 races. He's the one we like to do that on Saturday.<br />
<br />
<i><b><span style="color: blue;">Duh.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">2. Always Dreaming.</span> (ML: 4-5; FV: 8-5)</b> We've generally been of the opinion that the criticism of Todd Pletcher's Derby record was <a href="http://gowanusbaseball.blogspot.com/2010/04/daily-kentucky-derby-hype-meme-todd.html">overhyped</a>. We're kind of glad he got a 2nd win, because he's a great trainer and shouldn't be punished for doing a little less well on the first Saturday of May than he does the rest of the year. We're not saying he's going to catch Ben Jones, who has an incredible 6 Derby wins, but Lukas and Baffert's 4 wins are certainly reachable (if Baffert doesn't win another).<br />
<br />
But the Preakness...that's another story. There's a damn good reason Pletcher is 0-for-8 in the Preakness: he usually doesn't bother trying to win it. Of the 8 times he's run a horse, 5 were longshots who he didn't bother running in the Derby. None of them were remotely competitive. So let's look at the 3 who he did bother running in the Preakness after the Derby:<br />
<br />
<i><b>Impeachment</b> </i>('00): Runs a clunk up 3rd that's almost identical to his clunk up 3rd in the Derby. Snore. Mind you, this was Pletcher's <i>best</i> result in this race, and it was at a time when he was still forging a name for himself.<br />
<br />
<i><b>Circular Quay</b></i> ('07): At the time <a href="http://gowanusbaseball.blogspot.com/2007/05/preakness-preview.html">we noted</a> that the Derby almost seemed like a Preakness prep for this guy. That theory seems to have been dumb: he did very little in the Preakness, in part because he was an echelon below the two best horses.<br />
<br />
<b><i>Super Saver</i></b> ('10): Everyone and their brother will note how badly he ran in the Preakness after winning the Derby - hell, he never won again. It isn't so much that he lost, it's that he was spent with 2 furlongs to go. Pletcher never runs his horses back this quickly unless he wants to - he enjoys spacing out starts to give his runners time for a peak effort. <br />
<br />
So the question is whether Always Dreaming is going to regress the same way Super Saver did 7 years ago. Our feeling is yes - we don't love the quick turnaround, and are inherently suspect of a horse that has had 4 straight perfect trips. Sure, he could be that good, and we wouldn't be surprised with a win. But we think the better horse is...<br />
<br />
<i><b><span style="color: blue;">The Pick</span></b></i><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Classic Empire. <span style="color: black;">(ML: 3-1; FV: 7-5)</span> </b></span> The parallels to 2010 continue here, as like <b>Lookin at Lucky</b>, this guy was a champion two-year old, was unlucky in his Derby start, and has had some trip issues in the past. We like his draw in a more compact field, think that he'll use his tactical speed to make sure that Always Dreaming doesn't get away, and go by him at the top of the stretch. While we know Pletcher's only here because Always Dreaming has to run, we like the confidence that Casse is showing by running Classic Empire in the Preakness - he has every reason to wait for the Belmont and give his horse the extra three weeks. But we think he smells blood in the water. He knows Pletcher isn't best on the quick turnaround, knows his horse is on the improve, and thinks this is the better spot to beat him. We agree.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">How to Bet</span></i></b><br />
<br />
We're going to bet a couple of triples, with Cloud Computing in 3rd and the two obvious horses up top, and maybe one or two with Cloud Computing in the second place slot. This isn't a spot to get cute and go heavy on Term of Art - we think either accept that the top 2 tower over the field and bet accordingly, or enjoy a drink with the race instead.<br />
<br />
Good luck to all!!El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-85553088619692727852017-05-05T08:00:00.000-04:002017-05-05T08:00:01.165-04:002017 Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The Contenders<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW1gHEv1GjMc8C-iIY1UnjbzAQTbRihtvDDzWQfq8SfdeTutPKUgSc_BAUQnC0MirnkQJygpuxH5PkD_mQ464XBqM6M7bUznlV4tXQkX84eg4NqOLiUo5_Zj9X1imcS8h4dApUjXbT8kQe/s1600/LC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW1gHEv1GjMc8C-iIY1UnjbzAQTbRihtvDDzWQfq8SfdeTutPKUgSc_BAUQnC0MirnkQJygpuxH5PkD_mQ464XBqM6M7bUznlV4tXQkX84eg4NqOLiUo5_Zj9X1imcS8h4dApUjXbT8kQe/s320/LC.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Friend of the blog, voice of the Derby, and all around <br />great guy Larry Collmus with American Pharoah</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
We have two basic theses about this year's Derby. The first is that there's going to be a solid or quick pace. There are enough horses running that look like they want to be near the front that we think getting a :48 half mile is highly unlikely. We're not just conceding the race to a closer, but we think those bereft of early speed have a good chance this year.<br />
<br />
The second is that this isn't the best crop of 3 year olds. Two years ago we were treated to not only <b>American Pharoah</b> but also some others who were obviously talented: <b>Firing Line</b>, <b>Dortmund</b>, <b>Frosted</b>, <b>Carpe Diem</b>. This year, nobody's really stood out or has run that fast. Which is why we're keeping an open mind and not blindly tossing...<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: #38761d;">Wildcard #1</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">11. Thunder Snow. </span></b> <b>(ML: 20-1; FV: 25-1) </b>We have never bet a dollar on a Derby runner that ran in the UAE Derby. We have never really loved taking turf horses in the Derby. We've never heard of this guy's sire (Helmet) until now. (He was a good turf performer...in Australia.) And we're loathe to endorse front-runners in the Derby.<br />
<br />
And yet...there's some intrigue here. If there's going to be a year a Dubai runner contends, it's when the horse has staying power and is competing against a bunch of mediocrities. This guy has switched well to the dirt, despite the turf breeding. He's already won at 9 1/2 furlongs. And he has an excellent jockey, Euro Christophe Soumillion. We would be a little surprised if he wasn't at least involved early, and it certainly isn't impossible that he's around late.<br />
<br />
To us this comes down to price. If he gets bet and is around 15-1 or so, no thanks. But if he's ignored in the wagering? He's interesting enough to throw into your bets. <br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: #38761d;">Something Seems...Off</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>10. Girvin.</b> </span> <b>(ML: 15-1; FV: 20-1) </b>He's 3 for 4 and has the right running style for this race (off the pace, not a dead closer). But he's never won outside of Louisiana or beaten a high-quality horse. And he's been battling some minor injury issues, which we never like to see this time of year. Sure he could improve at Kentucky. At a relatively short price, we're not willing to take that chance.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>9. McCraken</b>.</span> <b>(ML: 5-1; FV: 12-1) </b>Prior to the Blue Grass, this was your probable favorite - a perfect 4-for-4 record, solid breeding, good trainer, and an affinity for the track. Then they went to post in the Blue Grass and he showed...nothing. He sat in perfect position off a moderate pace, and failed to close an inch on the winner, maiden Irap. Technically it's not a "bad prep" because he finished 3rd and didn't lose by a football field, but it was about as uninspiring a prep as you'll see, and makes us wonder if he's progressed at all since last year. We'll use a horse in the Derby that had a poor prep race if he's going to be a price. But this guy's going to be the second or third choice off essentially a no-show. No thanks.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">8. Classic Empire.</span></b> <b>(ML: 4-1; FV: 10-1) </b>The two year old champ and probable favorite is not without chance, and if he won, we wouldn't be shocked. He is talented and has the right running style to win, and Mark Casse is a good trainer. But there are enough red flags to make us side against. After a good 2 year old season, he was scheduled to have3 prep races starting with the Holy Bull, where he completely no-showed without a real excuse. Then he suffered a minor injury and missed some training time. Then he oddly refused to work out. When he finally began to get healthy and behave, he went to Oaklawn, and he won the Arkansas Derby, but in a rather slow time over competition he should have dominated. He's basically coming into the Derby off of one okay prep race and a smattering of odd works. That's not inspiring a lot of confidence here.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: #38761d;">Wildcard #2</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">7. Hence.</span> </b> <b>(ML: 15-1; FV: 16-1) </b>The Sunland Derby is generally not where we look for Kentucky Derby contenders, despite Mine That Bird's win. This guy won it by 7 lengths in a mediocre time, which should relegate him to also-ran status. But he's actually not badly bred and comes from the barn of Steve Asmussen, who's going to win this race one day. Even more interestingly, the horses that finished behind him at Sunland Park have good subsequent form - <b>Conquest Mo Money</b> came back to run 2nd in the Arkansas Derby and Irap came back to win the Blue Grass. A key race? Eh, probably not. But this is your likely wise-guy horse based on that theory.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: #38761d;">Perfect for Underneath</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>6. Lookin at Lee.</b> </span> <b>(ML: 20-1; FV: 33-1) </b>A classic plodder, he has no early speed and will be somewhere between 17th and 20th early on, especially since he drew the inside post. But we think there will be a lively pace for him to close into. An outsider to actually win, but a definite horse to consider for trifectas and superfectas.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">5. J Boys Echo.</span></b> <b>(ML: 20-1; FV: 25-1) </b>Like McCraken, he entered the Blue Grass with high expectations and did absolutely nothing. So why is he ranked here? Price. McCraken is going to be 6-1, this guy is going to be 4 times the price with about as much chance to hit the board. Again, we're not optimistic about his chances to actually win the race. But he has "rallies for a piece" written all over him.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: #38761d;">Wildcard #3</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">4. Battle of Midway. </span></b> <b>(ML: 30-1; FV: 12-1) </b>If we're going to use a horse out of California, it's this guy. A well-bred horse - <b>Smart Strike</b> is an excellent sire; <b>Rigoletta </b>was a really good 2 year old filly whose career ended prematurely with an injury - he cost $410,000 at auction and was sent to the very good Jerry Hollendorfer out west for training. After a solid maiden win, he was rushed into a stakes race where he had a tough trip and faded, but then won an allowance race around two turns. Next was the Santa Anita Derby, where for reasons unclear, he was sent to the lead for the first time. He battled through very quick fractions that fried every other front-runner except him. He held on for a game 2nd to Gormley, who took advantage of the pace meltdown with a win.<br />
<br />
Now there are some big negatives - no wins in stakes company, no starts as a two year old, and a possible propensity for being a front-runner. But he also may be coming into his own at just the right time, and if he can stalk instead of flying up front, he might sit a perfect trip. We think he's up against it to win. But to hit the board at a huge price? Very, very live.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b><i><span style="color: #38761d;">Contenders</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">3. Always Dreaming.</span></b> <b>(ML: 5-1; FV: 8-1) </b>We are at the point where we can just create a stock entry about Todd Pletcher's Derby entry that won his prep race. Yes, this guy ran well winning the Florida Derby and may have come into his own since leaving Dominick Schetino's barn. But we've seen this before with <b>Gemologist</b>. <b>Verrazano</b>. <b>Carpe Diem</b>. <b>Bandini</b>. The Pletcher horse that peaks the race before the Derby and completely no-shows in Louisville. We think it's telling that his only Derby win was with Super Saver, who looked good in his prep but didn't win.<br />
<br />
What's a little different this year is that we're not seeing any titans that Always Dreaming has to beat. Carpe Diem had American Pharoah. Gemologist had I'll Have Another. Verrazano had the obviously improving Orb. Bandini had...well, Giacomo, so bad example. Always Dreaming's chief challengers are all horses with flaws and who haven't shown flashes of greatness. So maybe he's just the best horse. We do think he'll run okay, but will be outside of the top finishers.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">2. Irish War Cry. </span></b> <b>(ML: 6-1; FV: 6-1) </b>Other than the 17 post, there's not much to complain about here. He's perfectly bred for 10 furlongs, and has shown in two of his races this year that he can race on the lead or just off it and win. What we <i>are</i> a little concerned about is that total clunker he ran two starts back in the Fountain of Youth. There he pressed a moderate pace and faded badly in the stretch. Maybe it was contesting the early pace that did him in, which he probably won't do on Saturday. Or maybe it was a regression off his nice win in the Holy Bull, which happens. If he doesn't go back to that good/bad/good pattern, he's very dangerous to win or finish in the money.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: #38761d;">The Pick</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. Gunnevara.</span></b> <b>(ML: 15-1; FV: 5-1) </b>We've been on this guy's bandwagon for a while and are not getting off for the Derby. He's well-raced with 9 career starts, which isn't a negative: California Chrome won 3 years ago with similar experience, and we've always liked horses with a good amount of 2 year old experience. He's won on multiple tracks (Saratoga, Gulfstream, Delta Downs) at multiple distances. He's bred for 10 furlongs. And we do think his closing style is going to work - in case it wasn't clear, we think there will be a lively pace for him to run into. Sure, he could have traffic trouble. That's always possible with closers. We're willing to take that chance.<br />
<br />
The biggest negative is his last race, where he was the 6-5 favorite and was well-beaten by Always Dreaming. We're willing to look past it: Gulfstream was kind to speed that day, Always Dreaming had a perfect trip, and this guy didn't. Now sure, if Always Dreaming moves forward and Gunnevara gets caught 8 wide on the far turn, he's going to be up against it. But this guy reminds us of <b>Monarchos</b>: a horse that had a great win 2 starts before the Derby, had a mild regression/consolidation start as his Derby prep, then exploded in the Derby with a peak performance as a closer. He needs to run faster to get to Monarchos' level. But we think the talent's there, and he flies down the stretch to win the whole shebang on Saturday evening.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: #274e13;">How to Bet</span></i></b><br />
<br />
This is a big reason why we included the fair value odds this year, it's our opinion as to the price where betting a horse makes sense. For example, we really don't love J Boys Echo to win. But if he's 30-1? That's not terrible value to us because it's a longer price than his odds to actually win the race.<br />
<br />
In addition to liking Gunnevara up top, we also think he's going to be excellent value. He probably will be shorter than 15-1, but double-digit odds seems probable for a horse we liked anyway. But regardless: do not ignore the win wager. Classic Empire will be at least 4-1 as the favorite, and if you like him, just take a shot at quadrupling your odds. If you're going to play exotics, we do think some of our goofy longshots have a chance to hit the board and make exactas and triple enticing.<br />
<br />
Good luck and enjoy the Derby!!El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-38964996154030281322017-05-04T08:00:00.000-04:002017-05-04T08:00:24.183-04:002017 Kentucky Derby Preview Part 1: The Pretenders<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijIh6qRF9Z4xFhCn7TS-_aaFL29ewbuBAPECe4gMqMYfOLestVssiiCngbpJX-OivwXDjePu2GSbQS86rWcOFY9GnhUqItlJsNRup0JL0EyobbaARWgLNX6imv-tLslqKnHvi8_FWpqTr-/s1600/derby+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijIh6qRF9Z4xFhCn7TS-_aaFL29ewbuBAPECe4gMqMYfOLestVssiiCngbpJX-OivwXDjePu2GSbQS86rWcOFY9GnhUqItlJsNRup0JL0EyobbaARWgLNX6imv-tLslqKnHvi8_FWpqTr-/s320/derby+2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
It's the first week of May, which can only mean one thing - it's time for the Kentucky Derby! <br />
<br />
It's hard to believe, but for a long time, being the Derby favorite was the kiss of death. Between <b>Spectacular Bid</b> in 1979 and <b>Fusaichi Pegasus</b> in 2000, <i>every</i> Kentucky Derby favorite lost, including Hall of Famers <b>Easy Goer</b> and <b>Holy Bull</b>. Being the favorite was deemed a curse until FuPeg broke the streak in 2000. <br />
<br />
In the 16 years since then, favorites have won 7 times, which is a little better than expected. But it's actually even more chalky than that if you look at the last 10 years, which has had six favorites win, including the last 4 races (<b>Nyquist</b>, <b>American Pharaoh</b>, <b>California Chrome</b>, <b>Orb</b>, <b>Big Brown</b> and <b>Street Sense</b>), plus a second choice (<b>Super Saver</b>). Heck, of the other three, <b>I'll Have Another</b> was an obvious overlay at 15-1, and <b>Animal Kingdom</b> was only 20-1 because he had never run on the dirt before. Really, only <b>Mine That Bird</b> counts as a true upset and longshot.<br />
<br />
What's happened? Well in the last few years, they've changed the eligibility rules to get into the Derby, which used to be based on earnings in stakes races. This allowed horses that won money at sprint distances to qualify, even though they had no chance of staying 10 furlongs. (Think of <b>Trinniberg </b>in 2012 for example - he earned a lot, but had no stamina; he won the Breeders Cup Sprint!) Taking those no-hopers out of the race has made it a lot "truer" a race. Traffic issues still exist but they're less of a big deal because you're not always dealing with an insane pace and badly tiring horses that closers have to avoid. It's no accident that a lot of the recent winners have been very close to the pace early; of the last 10 editions, only Orb and MTB were dead closers.<br />
<br />
This does not mean that you should pitch all closers and longshots, or skip the Derby altogether, because it's still the fricking Derby, and there's good money to be made. Last year was about as boring as the results got, as the top three betting choices ran 1-2-3. But everyone tries so hard to get cute in the wagering (us included), the triple paid $173. Think about it: that's 85-1 for simply agreeing with the wisdom of the crowd. The Derby remains a prime spot for wagering if you have a good opinion or two, even if it's simply "the favorites tower over the field." If you're right, you'll still get rewarded.<br />
<br />
So let's get to our annual countdown of the 20 runners from the least to most likely chance to win. (We are ignoring also-eligibles <b>Royal Mo</b> and <b>Master Plan</b>; you should too.) Today are the horses that we think have basically no chance to win, tomorrow's 11 are all on the other side of the pretender/possibility line. We're assuming the track is fast and fair on Derby Day - keep an eye on the weather forecast, which is a little dicey at the moment. For fun, this year we'll also give you the track's morning line odds and our fair value odds - i.e., the price where we think a win bet might be in order. Note that these are odds to win, not to finish in the money - as you will see, we have a couple of horses ranked higher mostly based on their chances to hit the board, not their chance to win. As you will also see, we are not as nice as the track's oddsmaker.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: #274e13;">Gate Fillers</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">20. Fast and Accurate.</span> </b> <b>(Morning Line: 50-1; Fair Value: 100-1)</b> To run in any of the Triple Crown races, you have to be nominated for the Triple Crown. This is not a particularly onerous process; it requires filling out a form and writing a check for $600 by mid-January, which is not a sum of money you blanch at if you're a horse owner. This year 418 horses were nominated to the Triple Crown. In addition to the top 3 year olds, it included 5 fillies, 9 horses in Japan (!) and over 50 horses that had never run a race before.<br />
<br />
You know who it didn't include? Fast and Accurate. That's probably because as of January, he had only won a maiden claiming race - the lowest level of race there is - and was beaten handily in his lone dirt start. He followed those "efforts" up with a pair of wins in something called the Sage of Monticello stakes on the turf, then a slowly run Spiral Stakes at 24-1 on an artificial surface. So to run him, his owner has to put up $200,000 in supplemental nomination fee. Some could argue that's a sign of confidence. We think it's a complete waste of money on a hopeless non-entity.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">19. Sonneteer.</span></b> <b> (ML: 50-1; FV: 100-1)</b> To show you how little we think of Fast and Accurate, we're putting ahead of him a maiden who's winless in 9 races. Don't worry, we don't think he has any chance either.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgolDh8YjXWAqWXgia_6Tr2VZpyQmhNO3SXwnykZGb_fU6DoVvBEdWtKkDSyaCBtKIY68rsWaTue74ozqxxIbB1lkHO-NH790kJDKC1LUqWY9RjguLZbnZdxauheNX66E7CmgiNf2jh-D3p/s1600/derby+1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgolDh8YjXWAqWXgia_6Tr2VZpyQmhNO3SXwnykZGb_fU6DoVvBEdWtKkDSyaCBtKIY68rsWaTue74ozqxxIbB1lkHO-NH790kJDKC1LUqWY9RjguLZbnZdxauheNX66E7CmgiNf2jh-D3p/s320/derby+1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">18. Untrapped.</span> (ML: 30-1; FV: 50-1) </b>A nicely bred colt that has gotten slower in every race this year. That's not a good trend going into the Derby. Of real interest, he's adding blinkers for the first time for the Derby. That happened to Palace Malice in 2013, who then bolted to the lead and set insane fractions, leading to Orb coming from the back of the pack to win. There's a chance he does the same thing.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">17. Patch.</span></b> <b>(ML: 30-1; FV: 50-1)</b> A one-eyed talent, he ran his first race in January, and as we've said a million times, there hasn't been a Derby winner that didn't run as a two year old since Chester A. Arthur was president. Even for super trainer Todd Pletcher, this is a huge stretch, and resembles past no-shows like <b>Coin Silver</b>, <b>Keyed Entry</b> and <b>Sam P.</b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">16. State of Honor.</span> </b> <b>(ML: 30-1; FV: 50-1)</b> This guy's managed to earn nearly $350,000 by consistently hanging around for 2nd and 3rd in races where he set the pace, faded, and was never a threat to win. We're still in <b>Giacomo </b>territory here.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: #274e13;">Destined to Be Overbet</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">15. Tapwrit.</span></b> <b> (ML: 20-1; FV: 33-1)</b> The second of four Pletcher horses in the field, this guy will get some play on the rebound from his bad 5th in the Blue Grass, as his prior race was a win in the Tampa Bay Derby. We're not seeing it. His two races at Tampa were flawed (if somewhat successful) in that he had perfect trips and was never that quick. We're also skeptical that he wants any part of 10 furlongs - his mother was a good sprinter who didn't have the pedigree to stretch out. Look for him to resurface in the Woody Stephens on the Belmont undercard.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">14. Practical Joke.</span></b> <b>(ML: 20-1; FV: 33-1) </b>A nice two year old that has made no progress this year. He won the Hopeful and Champagne last year and looked like a possible Derby contender for excellent trainer Chad Brown. But he's stalled out trying races around 2 turns - he was never really in contention in last year's Juvenile, and showed no punch in the stretch in either race this year. Another horse that would benefit on a cutback to 1-turn and 7 furlongs.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">13. Irap.</span></b> <b>(ML: 20-1; FV: 25-1)</b> The winner of the Blue Grass, he did so as a maiden and at 31-1 over what everyone thought was a great field. He had some decent races in his past, but we think he basically rode a conveyor belt around the track that day and nobody else did any running. We think he goes to the front here and is done by the far turn. But he's another that may ensure the pace is quick.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">12. Gormley.</span> </b> <b>(ML: 15-1; FV: 25-1) </b>Every time he's run against the second-tier horses, he's been great. But when he's gone up against the best in the Juvenile and the San Felipe this year, he's performed miserably. Every year we get a horse like this: excellent at beating tomato cans and taking beatings against the best. It's odd to say the winner of the Santa Anita Derby doesn't have much of a chance in the Kentucky Derby - it's produced 3 of the last 5 winners, after all - but we don't think this guy really has much of a chance at all. Our random prediction: he will be switched to the turf before the end of the year, and be really good at grass racing.<br />
<br />
<b>Coming up tomorrow</b>: The 11 who actually can compete for the win slot, and our pick.El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-42028735305652651872016-11-04T15:15:00.000-04:002016-11-04T15:15:08.745-04:002016 Breeders Cup Preview Part 2: Saturday's RacesNine races to preview, let's get to it:<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><u><b>Juvenile Fillies</b></u></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>: 1 1/16 miles for 2 year old girls on the dirt. As always, we recommend that you either go with the chalk or a bomb in this race. Picking a horse between 8-1 and 20-1 to win has been a disastrous proposition. Fortunately, the lowest price on the morning line is 9-2 and over half the field is below 12-1.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: It's a little unclear who's going to go off the favorite in this race, but we'll take a guess it'll be <b>Noted and Quoted</b>, who won the local prep (the Chandelier Stakes) in her last. She's trained by Bob Baffert and has nice tactical speed. That said, she doesn't hold much of an edge over the rest of the field.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: <b>Sweet Loretta</b> is 6-1 on the morning line but we expect a higher price than that - she hasn't been out in 2 months, dead-heated in her last, and hasn't run particularly fast. Whatever. She's trained by Pletcher, cost a fortune at auction and is perfectly bred for this type of race. If Todd's got her ready to run, she's dangerous.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Spread. This race was a lot easier years ago when the runners actually had run a bunch of times and we could assess their form. Here, the 12 entrants have run a total of 34 times - less than 3 starts per runner on average. It's a lot of guesswork.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: Let's do a little process of elimination. We don't buy <b>Jamyson n' Ginger</b> repeating her gigantic speed figure when it's a fast track, and also don't like Rudy Rodriguez shipping cross-country (so we'll also toss <b>Colorful Charades</b>). <b>Union Strike</b>'s had 2 good starts but has a new trainer because the owner fired the prior trainer - who was also his daughter! - and replaced her with Craig Dollase, who stinks. We don't love <b>American Gal</b> stretching out in the 12 post. And <b>Dancing Rags</b>, <b>Daddy's</b> <b>Lil Darling</b>, <b>Champagne Room</b> and <b>With Honors</b> all look too slow. We'll side with <b>Yellow Agate</b> on the improve and otherwise just cross our fingers.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Yellow Agate</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. Noted and Quoted</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. Sweet Loretta</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><u><b>Filly and Mare Turf</b></u></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>:1 1/4 miles on the turf for fillies and mares. This race has developed into one of our favorites over time because it's had a mixture of everything: Hall of Famers, complete shockers, memorable performances and great stories. Speaking of which...<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: <b>Lady Eli</b> is going to be the focus of 800 soft-focus tales this week, and it's a great story. She won the Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2014 over this same track, looking like an absolute star. She confirmed that her three year old year, winning her next three races with aplomb, and people were talking Eclipse Award for her (which would be unusual - turf horses never win the 3 year old Eclipse Awards). Less than a week after her big Belmont Oaks victory, she stepped on a nail, contracted laminitis and nearly died. Trainer Chad Brown took a year and nursed her back to health, and she came back to the races in August, losing her comeback in Saratoga by a head but winning the Flower Bowl in her last. The fact she's alive is amazing; the fact that she has won a Grade 1 this year is insane.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: <b>Sentiero Italia</b> is about as hard-knocking a horse as you'll get. She has good tactical speed, consistently runs a solid race, and is always near the front at the end. We don't think she's good enough to win this race, but don't toss her from your exactas and trifectas. If you want a total bomb, Japanese shipper <b>Nuovo Record</b> was running fabulously last year, but is not in the best form this year. If she somehow reverts to her 2015 self, look out.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Somewhat narrow. We think only 4 horses have a legitimate shot at winning this race.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>:There should be a TON of speed in this race, including <b>Catch a Glimpse</b> (who won the Juvenile Fillies Turf last year), <b>Pretty Perfect</b> (who is basically a rabbit), <b>Avenge</b>, and <b>Zipessa</b>. We think this sets up for a closer, and while we think Lady Eli has a shot, we're more interested in her stablemate, <b>Sea Calisi</b>, who had no shot in the paceless Flower Bowl. We think she improves off that effort and mows down her stablemate in the stretch while holding off European imports <b>Seventh Heaven</b> and <b>Queen's Trust</b>, both of which have big shots as well.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Sea Calisi </b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. Queen's Trust </b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. Seventh Heaven </b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><u><b>Sprint</b></u></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>: 6 furlongs on the dirt for the brave and the fleet. Last year's winner <b>Runhappy</b> probably would have been the favorite here, but his connections went for the Dirt Mile instead, which is a tougher race at a distance he doesn't like for less money. Sounds like a great plan.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: <b>Masochistic</b> is going to be the worst favorite of the entire weekend, especially if he's anywhere near his 2-1 morning line price. Sure, he has two wins this year and has a pair of nice speed figures. Those two wins came against a total of 6 opponents, and his last win was in a 3-horse field where nobody else challenged him for the lead. They were also at longer distances; he has a career terrible record at 6 furlongs (5 starts, 1 win, 1 second). He's as likely to finish last as he is to win.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: We're not sure if his 15-1 morning line is realistic, but Limousine Liberal merits a very close look especially underneath. He's been in the exacta 6 of 7 times at the distance, and ran a really nice second in the Phoenix last out. Importantly, that was his first start with blinkers. Solid chance they made the difference and made him a real contender.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Narrow. We're against the three year olds in this race - neither <b>Mind Your Biscuits</b> nor <b>Noholdingback Bear</b> has run fast enough to competitive, and we don't trust <b>Drefong</b> once he gets challenged on the front end. <b>Delta Bluesman</b> looks too slow. And in case it wasn't clear, we're against Masochistic.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: We had a long exposition on how we loved Lord Nelson in this spot, but he scratched yesterday with an injury. Bah. To heck with it. We're going with our longshot to win..<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Limousine Liberal </b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. A.P. Indian </b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. Drefong </b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><u><b>Turf Sprint</b></u></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>: 6 1/2 furlongs down the hill for everyone interested. We usually crap on this race but this is by FAR the best field it's drawn since it was inaugurated in 2008. There are multiple horses in here that would have been competitive in the Mile and have been competing in legitimate Grade 1 races the last two years. It's not just a collection of Grade 3 horses trying to get a big paycheck. That doesn't make it any easier to decipher, of course.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: This is another race where you could see favoritism going in a few directions, but we think it'll ultimately land on <b>Obviously</b>, who's run in the Breeders Cup Mile the last 4 years. He was perpetually the pace-setter and usually faded after 6 furlongs, so you can see why they want to cut him back in distance. That said we're dubious - he's getting a new jockey, hasn't had a ton of success at this track or at the distance, and he is 8 years old. Wouldn't surprise us if he's won, but we're going to look elsewhere.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: Two of the three horses we like are going to be a fair price and we'll discuss below. For a total bomb, why not <b>Calgary Cat</b>, who won his last and seems to like the distacne?<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Spread. In this race, it's always spread.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: <b>Om</b> has always been a horse that we've been high on and we love him on the turnback here. He's extremely talented on both surfaces and we think the cutback suits him well. He's also the answer to this random trivia question:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwULRYXipNkCGSVThkJHw3EqFG5TBtmLjQC_9TIv_NQiXvwmnphHAiZ8EAy7-fUiTdQLFeJUFoVi6yn7vHrl1ARke7bboF0Rj43rIEujEZX0G9D1x2vkjFqIeWryy9RCtLQkbhYrZeI5BU/s1600/Om.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwULRYXipNkCGSVThkJHw3EqFG5TBtmLjQC_9TIv_NQiXvwmnphHAiZ8EAy7-fUiTdQLFeJUFoVi6yn7vHrl1ARke7bboF0Rj43rIEujEZX0G9D1x2vkjFqIeWryy9RCtLQkbhYrZeI5BU/s640/Om.jpg" width="387" /></a> Yep, he's the horse to beat <b>American Pharoah</b> in his first start. Underneath we like <b>Celestine</b>, who had a huge win in the Just a Game back on Belmont Day, and <b>Home of the Brave</b>, who's the best of the Euros.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Om</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. Celestine </b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. Home of the Brave </b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><u><b>Juvenile </b></u></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>:1 1/16 miles on the dirt. After this race being fairly irrelevant for the purposes of the Kentucky Derby for years, last year's winner <b>Nyquist</b> won the Derby, and the winner two years ago (<b>Texas Red</b>) validated how good American Pharoah was. So maybe it's back to being germane to three year old form?<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: There are quite literally 5 horses we could see favored in this race, not because they all look the same, but because they all have different positive attributes. The morning line favorite is <b>Not This Time</b>, who romped in the Iroquois in late September and has been the subject of a lot of chatter among horse cognoscenti. We think favoritism is more likely to go to either <b>Syndergaard</b>, who ran an excellent second in the Champagne after hotly contesting the pace - and yes, we do think he'll get bet from casual fans because of the name - or <b>Gormley</b>, who won the Front Runner stakes handily in his last. Californians often make California horses the favorite.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: We had never heard of Jose Pinchin before a few weeks ago, but he comes in with <b>Three Rules</b>, who's undefeated in 5 starts in Florida, all in fairly convincing fashion. Yes, he's never taken on horses better than Florida-breds, and he has early speed that might get fried here. But he has sneaky-good breeding (we love Gone Astray as a sire and think he just needs better mares) and has been working out splendidly. He'll be at least 10-1 and merits strong consideration.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Spread. We're not in love with the three longest shots in this race (<b>Term of Art</b>, <b>Lookin at Lee</b>, <b>Star Empire</b>) but can make a credible case for the rest.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: Working backwards again, we don't love Gormley as we think he basically lucked into an uncontested lead and walked to a win in the Front Runner. That ain't happening again. Syndergaard is probably a 1-turn horse. <b>Theory</b> doesn't have enough distance foundation. <b>Practical Joke</b>, who rode the best part of the track and a gift setup last time, doesn't seem fast enough to us. We have some interest in <b>Klimt</b> and we'll probably use him defensively, but we don't love the rail draw and have to draw a line somewhere. We're siding with Classic Empire, who would probably be in here undefeated if he hadn't lost his rider coming out of the gate in the Hopeful. His Breeders' Futurity was really a nice performance, and we expect to see some improvement on it.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Classic Empire</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. Not This Time </b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. Three Rules </b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><u><b>Turf</b></u></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>: 1 1/2 miles on the sod for all comers. In the last 20 runnings, 14 of the 21 winners (there was a dead-heat in '03) were Europeans that shipped in, and another (<b>Main Sequence</b>) was a Euro who campaigned in America all year. Of the 6 Americans, 4 were prices (<b>Buck's Boy, Little Mike, Better Talk Now </b>and<b> Johar</b>) and only two were really considered championship caliber horses: <b>English Channel</b> and <b>Chief Bearhart</b>. In short - be very wary taking a stateside horse to win, especially at a short price.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: <b>Flintshire</b> looks to do what Main Sequence did two years ago - spend the year in the US, win our turf races, then take the Breeders Cup Turf. He was pretty dominant in his first three races, but ran a bad 2nd in his last to <b>Ectot</b> on a yielding turf. Most will excuse that as a race where he didn't like the surface but we're a little concerned. Clearly he prefers a hard surface (which he'll get Saturday) but he had a class edge on the field and really wasn't compromised by a bad trip. Definitely need to use, but be wary.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: <b>Money Multiplier</b> has never won a graded stakes race and finished 3 lengths behind Flintshire in his last race. And yet, we're very interested at 20-1 or higher. His Sword Dancer two back was really good, as was his allowance race before that, and he had a sneaky really good second in the United Nations before that, which was also not on a firm turf. We think he's on the upswing and will benefit even more from Santa Anita's hard surface. Very live.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Narrow. We think a chunk of this field has no business running this weekend (looking at you, <b>Rallis, Twilight Eclipse, Ashleluvssugar, Texas Ryano</b>), that <b>Da</b> <b>Big Hoss</b> has had a good year beating up on cheap horses, and that <b>Ulysses</b> isn't good enough. We're also against <b>Highland Reel</b>, we know he ran 2nd in the Arc, but somehow this races seems like an afterthought to his connections. Finally, <b>Mondialiste</b> is in the wrong race. He should be in the Mile.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: We have been very impressed with <b>Found</b>'s 4 year old season, which in the last month and a half has included a win in the Arc (Europe's big race) and an excellent second to <b>Almanzor</b> in the Champion Stakes last out. Heck, she beat Minding in September, and <b>Minding</b> may be the best turf horse on earth. If she keeps her form and takes to the track, she should repeat, and lay waste to this Arc-Breeders Cup "curse." Underneath, we'll use all of Flintshire, Money Multiplier and Ectot, whose win in the Hirsch last out shouldn't be overlooked.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Found</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. Money Multiplier </b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. Ectot</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><u><b>Filly and Mare Sprint</b></u></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>: 7 furlongs on the dirt for fillies and mares three years old and up. We have no idea why this is the third-to-last race on the card, rather than the Juvenile, regular Sprint, or frankly, anything else. It's an okay race. But hardly deserving of a prime time spot.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: <b>Haveyougoneaway</b> hasn't been out of the exacta this year and exits a nice win at the distance in the Ballerina. She's 3-1 on the morning line and she's a good value play if she's that price. By contrast, <b>Carina Mia</b> is going to get bet and we don't like her at all. We remind everyone that 3 year olds are <i>terrible</i> plays in this race - they never win and are underrepresented in exactas.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: We don't understand remotely what the heck Ian Kruljac is doing with <b>Finest City</b> but she's not impossible here at a price. Her start in the Santa Monica at the start of the year was a good 7 furlong effort, as was her sprint back in April. Then for some reason he stretched her out to a mile, then threw her on the turf at middle distances where she was okay-not-great. So she's turning back and switching surfaces. We feel like anything between a DAFL and a romp at a big number is in play.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Spread. Almost everyone is in the 92-99 speed figure range.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: Not only do we not like Carina Mia, we don't see <b>Wavell Avenue</b> repeating last year's win, her form is just too spotty. We like the horses exiting the Ballerina and will take them over our goofy longshot, and maybe a piece of <b>Wonder Gal</b> at a huge number.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Haveyougoneaway</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. Finest City</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. By the Moon</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><u><b>Mile</b></u></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>:1 mile on the turf for the fast and the strong. Our favorite race every year somehow got the on deck circle again in the race sequence. Whatever. We think this race is a lot of fun.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: Last year's winner <b>Tepin</b> is back and has had a really excellent year: 6 wins in 7 starts over five different tracks, including Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Woodbine and Royal Ascot. Her Queen Anne Stakes win at Ascot was a really neat victory, but since then she's had a workman-like victory in the Woodbine Mile and lost in the First Lady. Has she tailed off from her best form? Or did she just have good excuses in her last two (long layoff, front runner freaked)? One of the toughest reads of the day.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: There are a few. Everyone is presuming <b>Midnight Storm</b> is going to get fried up front. Maybe. But don't overlook that he's won three straight in front-running style through tough fractions, and is working out well coming into this race. <b>Spectre</b> has been competitive all year in Europe (if rarely victoriious) and adds Lasix. Shades of <b>Domedriver</b>, who won this at 26-1 in 2002. And then there's last year's Juvenile Turf winner, <b>Hit It a Bomb</b>, who's sown very litle this year in 3 starts, but maybe just needs to return to the US and a harder surface. We simply can't dismiss him based on how well he closed last year.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Spread. To us, there are a two key questions in this race - what do you do with Tepin (discussed above) and what do you do with <b>Limato</b>, the European shipper who's excellent at 6-7 furlongs but not much of a performer at a mile? We're leaning against both. There's just too much good competition in this race to take horses with these flaws at short prices.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: Our feeling on the race shape is that there's going to be a lot of early speed - Photo Call, Midnight Storm, What a View, maybe Tepin, maybe Limato - that a strong closer is the way to go. There's none better here than <b>Ironicus</b>, who has had success at longer distances and ran a great 2nd in the Shadwell last out. We are professed fanboys for trainer Shug McGaughey, but we think he's the best horse here and is sitting on a huge effort. He's probably our best bet of the weekend. Underneath, we like the best Euro, <b>Alice Springs</b>, and <b>Miss Temple City</b>, who's had a really nice year that's gotten overlooked and may sit a good trip just off the frontrunners.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Ironicus </b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. Miss Temple City </b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. Alice Springs </b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><u><b>Classic</b></u></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>:1 1/4 miles on the dirt for all comers. Yes we know, we usually do a whole separate post on this race. But we admit we're a little pressed for time and besides, we think most of this field isn't competitive.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: 2014 Kentucky Derby winner <b>California Chrome</b> had something of a lost 2015 and was forgotten after <b>American Pharoah</b>'s Triple Crown last year. But he's had a great 2016 - after winning his first start at Santa Anita, he shipped to Dubai, won a prep race and the $10 million Dubai World Cup, then came back and won the San Diego Handicap, Pacific Classic and Awesome Again, each in dominating fashion over the best handicap horses, including Dortmund and Beholder. He's living proof that horses really peak at age 5 and makes us wonder what other Derby winners could have done had they stayed in training (we're looking at you, <b>Big Brown</b> and <b>Point Given</b>). Alas.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Second Choice</b></span>. <b>Arrogate</b> came into the Travers having made 4 starts for Bob Baffert and showing some good talent in allowance races. Then this happened:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/7HMyD7svqEI/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7HMyD7svqEI?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
Jesus. That translated to a 122 Beyer, and was the fastest Travers ever. It's a tall order to ask him to duplicate that, but man.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: He's gotten no attention, but <b>Shaman Ghost</b> has turned into a nice horse. Last year he won the Queens Plate in Canada - their equivalent of the Kentucky Derby - and was given the rest of the year off after losing his next race. He came to the States this year and after losing an allowance race, won the Brooklyn Handicap (at 12 furlongs!), overagressively ran in the Suburban and lost, before pulling off an upset in the Woodward, a Grade 1 at 9 furlongs. He likes to run long, runs best fresh, is on the improve and has good tactical speed. He's going to need some luck to win. But to hit the board at 30-1? We're very interested.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Narrow. We have now named every horse we think can win this race. No, we're not buying <b>Frosted</b>, who ran a great Met Mile but we think wants no part of 10 furlongs, or <b>Melatonin</b>, who hasn't run in 5 months.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: We're not going to get too creative here. California Chrome is the best horse in the world, and has had a great year. Unless Arrogate duplicates his Travers, he should win this going away. And it would be a great cap to a stellar year by the former Derby champ.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. California Chrome</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. Shaman Ghost</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. Arrogate</b></span><br />
<br />
Enjoy the Breeders Cup everyone!!El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-71566638265780880352016-11-03T09:11:00.004-04:002016-11-03T09:11:52.296-04:002016 Breeders Cup Preview Part I: Friday's RacesIt's the first week of November, which means it's time for our annual rite of hubris and insanity. Yes, it's our annual Breeders Cup preview, where we foolishly try to summarize 13 races in two blog posts and pick 39 horses in the exact order of finish. We're coming off a year where we actually weren't horrific - we had 4 winners last year, including one longshot (<b>Wavell Avenue</b>, who was 10-1 in the Filly and Mare Sprint) and 3 more expected winners (<b>Liam's Map</b> in the Dirt Mile, <b>Songbird</b> in the Juvenile Fillies, <b>Runhappy</b> in the Sprint). On the flip side, that's still 9 races we whiffed on, including picking <b>Tonalist</b> over <b>American Pharoah</b>. Oops.<br />
<br />
So while we turned a profit on win bets last year, let's try to improve on that. And given that last year was the chalkiest year in Breeders Cup history - Wavell Avenue was the longest priced winner, and only one horse over 20-1 finished in the exacta - let's also hope for some solid prices. We'll start by previewing Friday's 4 races today, and pick up later tomorrow on Saturday's extravaganza. We'll assume the track is fast/firm and relatively fair. As usual, we'll break down what each race is about, who the likely favorite is, and our thoughts on how to play it.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><u><b>Juvenile Turf</b></u></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>: 1 mile on the turf for 2 year old colts.<b> Hit it a Bomb</b> furiously rallied in the stretch to take it last year continuing Europe's domination of this race. At least it wasn't a Godolphin/Coolmore horse for a change.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: Having said all that, we don't think favoritism is going to go to one of the several Euros in this field. It's likely either going to <b>Oscar Performance</b>, who romped in the Pilgrim at Belmont in his last, or <b>Good Samaritan</b>, who ran well in Canada last out for Bill Mott. We have no quarrel with the latter but are against Oscar Performance - his two big efforts came on uncontested leads, which he's not likely to get on Friday, what with having the 13 post and horses like <b>Keep Quiet</b> and <b>Lancaster Bomber</b> to keep him honest.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: <b>Channel Maker</b> is 30-1 on the morning line, yet he only lost to Good Samaritan by 3 lengths in his last on a horrible trip. He's got perfect breeding for this spot, a good trainer, a stellar jockey, and is likely going to sit a nice trip from the 3 post. We're very interested at will be 7 times Good Samaritan's price.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Spread. Even if you ignore the Euros - don't - there are about 5 different horses we could see winning here.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: For a change, we're not in love with either of the O'Brien horses, who drew poorly and look like they may have too much early speed for their own good. But we are interested in Godolphin's <b>Rodaini</b>. He doesn't look the part on first glance given he last his last by 24 lengths, but he had an impossible trip - dwelt at the start, stumbled in the stretch and was basically eased. Yes, if he dwells at the start again, he's going to have trouble. But if he breaks cleanly, we like Dettori to sit him behind a good pace and make a late charge at a nice price.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Rodaini</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. Good Samaritan</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. Channel Maker</b></span><br />
<br />
<u><b><span style="color: red;">Dirt Mile</span></b></u><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>:
1 mile on the dirt for all comers. This race was added in 2007 amid a fair amount of outcry from Racing People that it wasn't right that there was no race between 6 and 10 furlongs for dirt runners on the Breeders Cup card. In the 9 years we've had this race, we've had exactly one champion run in it (<b>Caleb's Posse</b>, 2011) and for 3 straight years, it's been a consolation prize for a genuinely good horse looking to make an easy buck by ducking better competition, winning at a short price. This is neither fun nor productive. Please discontinue this race.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: <b>Dortmund </b>looks to follow in the footsteps of <b>Goldencents</b> and <b>Liam's Map</b> by taking the easy route on Breeders Cup weekend. After knocking heads with <b>California Chrome</b> 3 times and losing each time, he drops to this race where there is nobody nearly as good as California Chrome. Or Dortmund, who's probably the 2nd or 3rd best horse in America right now. Having a horse this good run in this race is absurd.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: To win? We don't think so. Underneath? Hmmm. <b>Point Piper</b> is in decent form if you ignore his last on a wet track and may get a pace to run at. At 20-1, why not?<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Single. We're not going against Dortmund.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: The interesting question in this race is what to do with <b>Runhappy</b>, who won last year's Sprint and is one of ten (!) prior Breeders Cup winners running this weekend. (Fun facts - the 10 horses comprise of 8 that won a Breeders Cup race last year; of those, only 4 are trying to win the same race again in 2016, though three of them won 2yo races last year, making repeating impossible. Runhappy's the only one who could have run in the same race again and chose not to.) We're against him - we didn't like his comeback effort at all, and think he's not the same horse around 2 turns. If you toss him and <b>Gun Runner</b> (meh), the only other horse that's likely to take money in the race, the exactas and tris may not be so shabby. We're key Dortmund over some prices that have West Coast experience.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Dortmund</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. Point Piper</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. Accelerate</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><u><b>Juvenile Fillies Turf</b></u></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>:
1 mile on the turf for 2 year old fillies. We've noted this in the past, but the American fillies always fair well in this race, as evidenced by <b>Catch a Glimpse</b>'s solid win last year. This year's edition has one of the most inscrutable fields that you'll see all weekend, which probably means chalk will run 1-2-3.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: It's either going to be <b>La Coronel</b>, who won the Jessamine at Churchill Downs very impressively in her last and is trained by Mark Casse (who won this race last year), or Aiden O'Brien's <b>Roly Poly</b>, who just missed in a Grade 1 at Newmarket last out. The problem with these two horses is they drew the 13 and 14 post, so they need to either clear the field or take back quick, lest they get caught very wide on the first turn.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: <b>Coasted</b> won a pair of races at Saratoga impressively this summer, then did little in the Miss Grillo, the prep for this race at Belmont. But that was over a yielding turf that she probably didn't like. She has tactical speed, a positive jockey switch (Mike Smith isn't our favorite, but he's great at Santa Anita) and is going to be around 20-1. Definitely worth considering. <br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: Spread. Seriously, we were deciding between Coasted, <b>Rymska</b>, <b>Cavale Doree</b> and <b>Lull</b> as our "Price Horse to Consider." There are a lot of options in this race that make perfect sense.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: We think there's a decent amount of speed in this race, so we're looking for closers that should make a nice move on the far turn and run down the leaders. Of the 6 or so that we like, we're siding with <b>Spain Burg</b>, who gets a new trainer (Kathy Ritvo, who's fine), Lasix and a short layoff to prep for this spot. We'll use her over all the longshots we discussed above, and maybe some of <b>New Money Honey</b>. This race is as tough as they get all weekend - plan accordingly.<br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>1. Spain Burg</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>2. Coasted</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>3. Cavale Doree</b></span><br />
<br />
<u><b><span style="color: red;">Distaff</span></b></u><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Synopsis</b></span>:
1 1/8 miles on the dirt for fillies and mares, 3 years old and up. This is the best race of the weekend, and is one of the best races in recent Breeders Cup history. Even if it's not the best wagering opportunity in the world, as a sporting event, it's phenomenal.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Favorite</b></span>: <b>Songbird </b>won last year's Juvenile Fillies and is 11-for-11 in her career. In those 11 starts, she's won 7 Grade 1 races, has won by a total of over 60 lengths, and has never won by less than 3 1/2 lengths. She's something else, and has been drawing praise from all over the racing press. And of course, we're going to try to beat her.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Next two choices</span></b>: <b>Stellar Wind</b> and <b>Beholder </b>have met each other three times this year and put on three excellent performances, with Stellar Wind holding the 2-1 advantage. Stellar Wind is last year's 3 year old champion who's had a light campaign (3 starts) but has never been out of the exacta at Santa Anita and could sit a beautiful trip behind what should be a fair pace. Beholder is a Hall of Fame horse that's already won two Breeders Cup races (Juvenile Fillies in '12, this race in '13), has a ridiculous record of 13 wins and 2 seconds in 15 starts at Santa Anita, and since her debut, has only finished worse than second <i>once</i> in the next 24 starts. She's amazing. And she's probably going to be the third choice.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">The East Coasters</span></b>: In case that wasn't enough, we have a troika of interesting horses shipping from the East. <b>Curalina </b>has put forth some explosive performances: her La Troinne and Shuvee were both outstanding, and she comes in off a layoff, a move trainer Todd Pletcher did last year with <b>Stopchargingmaria</b> en route to a win. <b>I'm a Chatterbox</b> and <b>Forever Unbridled</b> have each won two Grade 1's this year and ran fabulously in their last races, winning by open lengths in traditional Breeders Cup preps. All three of these horses should be 10-1 or higher.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Price Horse to Consider</b></span>: Pass. We can't make any case for the other two horses, <b>Land Over Sea</b> or <b>Corona del Inca</b>, other than strange things happen every day.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Betting Approach</b></span>: This comes down to how you want to treat Songbird. Some people will single her. We think that's nuts. She's never run against older horses, has no edge in speed figures, and is going to go to the lead where she's likely to get pressed by Curalina and Beholder. She's never faced real speed before. We think she does this Friday and folds, very similar to what happened to <b>Lost in the Fog</b> in the Sprint 11 years ago. So in short, spread.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Selections</b></span>: God this difficult. Working backwards, we think Curalina will also chase Songbird and get eaten up by the early pace, and we think Stellar Wind is ripe for a bounce off her last. Both could win, we're just leaning otherwise. Forever Unbridled is a really nice horse that never seems to get there against the best competition. We're going to side with Beholder taking her final race and capping off a magnificent career, thinking she sits a perfect stalking trip on a track she loves. Because chalk never runs 1-2-3 in these races, we're throwing in the improving I'm a Chatterbox is a fun wildcard. Sit back and enjoy, this is going to be a good one.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">1. Beholder</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">2. I'm a Chatterbox</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">3. Stellar Wind</span></b><br />
<br />
<b>Coming up tomorrow</b>: Saturday's races.El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-69963142866509871692016-06-10T08:15:00.000-04:002016-06-10T08:15:21.446-04:002016 Belmont Preview<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzuZcRGA3-asczpCkONIFNxFSrBzr_91pb-97NBw1hYVpDy_0g_Q5vbR9Z1yrJ5aKsal83-Nc__JIuuaLv_O-7b7_EQ8esDpSE6aqDt55e6Dq5HyHo4pPRaq4tumT9F7Rp7mv1nN6QiDQZ/s1600/belmont.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzuZcRGA3-asczpCkONIFNxFSrBzr_91pb-97NBw1hYVpDy_0g_Q5vbR9Z1yrJ5aKsal83-Nc__JIuuaLv_O-7b7_EQ8esDpSE6aqDt55e6Dq5HyHo4pPRaq4tumT9F7Rp7mv1nN6QiDQZ/s320/belmont.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
For the umpteenth time, we were wrong with Nyquist. We're convinced this horse exists solely to make us look stupid, and more importantly, cost us money. But at least he's out of the Belmont, which relieves us of the burden of trying to figure out which way his form is going and trying to guess wrong yet again. Instead, we have an eclectic 13-horse field that is more wide-open that it appears at first glance. <br />
<br />
Let's get to this year's edition of the Test of Champions, and see if we can extend our streak of picking the winner to 5 straight years. As always, we're assuming that the track is fast and fair.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Not Again</span></i></b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">13. Trojan Nation.</span></b> The only surprising thing about his Derby was that he wasn't the longest shot on the board and only went off at 40-1. Other than that he didn't disappoint - he broke horribly and was never closer than 20 lengths behind the leader, and only beat horses that were eased or had given up. Why does the owner keep wasting their money on these races when he still hasn't won a race?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">The Easy Goer Is a Better Spot For You</span></i></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">12. Seeking the Soul.</span></b> </div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">11. Forever d'Oro.</span></b> We're putting both of these guys together because they're functionally speaking the same horse. Both are owned by Charles Fipke, trained by Dallas Stewart - who we acknowledged in the Derby preview can get a longshot home underneath at a price - and enter in off maiden wins. Neither ran particularly fast, neither has tactical speed that gives them any type of advantage on the field, and they're both taking a major hike in class. We rate Forever d'Oro slightly higher because he is well-bred, but this is a helluva a spot to make your stakes debut.</div>
<div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha1O4KkR0bC1wRaUWIWFGGN53E1kGigqOyFB3fXD5V-LZOGNbkmw0UT_sowuvl-LDBscAFfAaLGwvE80KpejzJViol-smFIaIhkPAez9LQrLzuJATAlPd_DViPp_-JTD4qm97iwd37PXPV/s1600/gettysburg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha1O4KkR0bC1wRaUWIWFGGN53E1kGigqOyFB3fXD5V-LZOGNbkmw0UT_sowuvl-LDBscAFfAaLGwvE80KpejzJViol-smFIaIhkPAez9LQrLzuJATAlPd_DViPp_-JTD4qm97iwd37PXPV/s320/gettysburg.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">10. Gettysburg.</span></b> This guy was entered mostly to guarantee a fast pace for a couple of other horses in the race. There's a remote chance that he steals the race on the front end, but given that he continuously fades late at shorter distances, we'll side against.<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">9. Governor Malibu.</span></b> Some people are giving this guy an outside chance because he's the same trainer and jockey as 2014 Belmont winner Tonalist and has had some good recent efforts. We're not impressed. His 2nd in the Peter Pan was a crawling gain on a horse that was tiring while stretching out two furlongs. His prior races were slow efforts in state-bred company or against horses in Maryland that would be 30-1 here. But sure, take 8-1 on him against the best 3-year-olds in the country.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Up Against It</span></i></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">8. Cherry Wine.</span></b> He ran about as well as we expected in the Preakness, closing into a solid pace to catch a piece. The fact he finished second rather than 3rd or 4th was in part because Nyquist ran <i>worse</i> than we expected and Cherry Wine absolutely loved the slop. We're skeptical of those who are calling him a horse on the rise with a big shot Saturday. Dead closers like him are up against it in the Belmont generally, and there isn't a ton of speed in the race. And he still isn't that fast. Speaking of which...</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">7. Brody's Cause.</span></b> At Keeneland this guy's a monster: two Grade 1 wins and a solid 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Outside of Keeneland, he's a disaster: a maiden win and 3 losses by a total of 47 lengths. And like Cherry Wine, he's a slow closer. There's always a chance he clunks up to hit the board, but that's also the profile of several others who are just faster.</div>
<div>
<br />
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">6. Lani.</span></b> Random prediction: he gets bet and goes off about half the price of his 20-1 morning line odds. He has evolved a bit from the butt of jokes before the Derby - people have been talking up his workouts the last few weeks, and he did show some improvement from the Derby to the Preakness. But he still wasn't that close to Exaggerator, finished behind two other horses that are running in this race, and hasn't shown any type of explosive speed or staying power that we think is necessary to win the Belmont. <br />
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Not Impossible</span></i></b></div>
<div>
<br />
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">5. Exaggerator.</span></b>
He's a very good horse and has run faster than almost everyone in this field. He absolutely can win on Saturday. Hell, he's a real contender for Horse of the Year if he continues to improve. But we cannot, and will not,
endorse taking even money on a horse that does his best running when he
closes from well out of it on a sloppy track. That defines a money-losing proposition. At that point, why not take a shot on...<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">4. Creator.</span></b> He's the main reason that Gettysburg is here, because as a dead closer, his mission looked very difficult without any true speed horse in the race. Gettysburg at least makes it likely that he'll have some pace to run at. His Derby is a borderline complete toss because he had horrendous traffic issues and never got a fair run at anything. He's got a chance here if he's a little closer to the pace and gets a fair trip. From the 13 post, we're a little hesitant to pick up on top, but to hit the board at 12-1? Very live.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Contenders</span></i></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMdVwerFR4ULtjjfz49NV1yx233rRRNc2EbYHU8Gaml5NasbxfUe4YRnhxKn5LDiLbDei9y8R04Ja7WA24SGdDRhpSwzpqDqzLkKFd_8LOrEbnhngAaNVO5uXjI0T1i61WrdyfqHtjAEph/s1600/Todd_Pletcher_615_X_400_orig.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMdVwerFR4ULtjjfz49NV1yx233rRRNc2EbYHU8Gaml5NasbxfUe4YRnhxKn5LDiLbDei9y8R04Ja7WA24SGdDRhpSwzpqDqzLkKFd_8LOrEbnhngAaNVO5uXjI0T1i61WrdyfqHtjAEph/s320/Todd_Pletcher_615_X_400_orig.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">3. Stradivari.</span></b> His Preakness was fairly good - in only his 4th career start and stakes debut, he sat close to a brisk pace, went very wide on the far turn, ran on a sloppy track for the first time, and still was only beaten a half-length for second. There's an excellent possibility that he moves forward off that race especially on a faster track. We also like that he has tactical speed in a race without a ton of early speed. There's a chance that he's the most talented horse in the field and shows it on Saturday. That said, we think there are a pair of horses that are better than him right now.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #274e13;"><b>2. Suddenbreakingnews.</b></span> We're not going to dispute that the two best horses on Derby Day were Nyquist and Exaggerator. But this guy was probably the 3rd best. He had trouble early on in the race, which put him next-to-last and a whopping <i>twenty-seven</i> lengths behind the front runners. (Exaggerator, by contrast, was 17 lengths off the pace.) Despite this and going wide on the far turn, he rallied stoutly from the back of the pack, winding up 5th and only a couple of jumps from third place. With a better trip, he easily would have been third and could have contended for second.<br />
<br />
Now yes, dead closers like him are always vulnerable to bad trips. And we've already noted that closers are tough bets in the Belmont and that there isn't a ton of pace here. But we think this guy has a ton of talent that he's shown in his last 3 races, even if it hasn't translated into wins. And while we don't love Mike Smith, we think he's a huge improvement over Luis Quinonez, who we think may have waited too long with this guy time and again. We wouldn't be surprised to see Smith ride him a bit more aggressively and try to keep him in closer contact with the leaders. That would give him a big shot, but to us, still makes him second-best.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">The Pick</span></i></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">1. Destin.</span></b> Yep, we're doubling down with our failed Derby pick. We know, he ran 6th without much of an excuse. But we thought it was a nice effort. Asking him to deliver a peak effort off an 8-week layoff probably was a tougher task than we acknowledge, and his fade in the final 600 yards was likely due to the lack of recency. If he moves forward off that - a common trend, to improve second off a brief layoff - he'll be dangerous. More importantly, we love his tactical speed, like Pletcher/Castellano in this spot, and think his breeding is perfect for the 12 furlongs. We think he sits about 3-4 lengths off the pace, starts grinding away at the lead on the far turn, and holds off the closers in the stretch to give Pletcher his 3rd Belmont win.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Good luck to all and enjoy the Belmont!</div>
El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-54710546010549957612016-05-19T08:45:00.000-04:002016-05-19T08:45:19.352-04:002016 Preakness Preview<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdzWCMQcMRr0UFP_ZJyTelUuV7WRy5U89_RbeiVoDg7v9o-jjn-0htdF-c47YDvqEuIOtt4LmSByuV079iVX68il_Vph9LY5yJAlANoPraWqeVbUoaQKEzcwXWUasdHTQotTINcUhaWZ1O/s1600/preakness.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdzWCMQcMRr0UFP_ZJyTelUuV7WRy5U89_RbeiVoDg7v9o-jjn-0htdF-c47YDvqEuIOtt4LmSByuV079iVX68il_Vph9LY5yJAlANoPraWqeVbUoaQKEzcwXWUasdHTQotTINcUhaWZ1O/s320/preakness.jpg" width="320" /></a>We're at a loss trying to think of a horse we've been wrong about more frequently than <b>Nyquist</b>. So far we have publicly picked against him in the Breeders Cup' Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby; he's made us look foolish both times. Privately, we've wagered against him another two times, and he won both of those races with ease. Usually we're wrong with horses that constantly tease us by showing greatness that never actually puts it together. (See: too many examples to count.) Nyquist is the opposite. He's already proven that he's a top quality horse; middling horses don't five Grade 1 races. Our attempts to harp on flaws has kept us from picking him time and time again, perhaps just ignoring that he's really good.<br />
<br />
But does that mean he's going to win the Preakness? Let's count them down. In a slight change from the past, we are not going to assume the track is fast - the forecast for Saturday in Baltimore is dreadful, so we're instead assuming there's a fair bit of moisture in the track.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: purple;">They're Just Trying to Annoy Us</span></i></b><br />
<b><i><br /></i></b>
<b><span style="color: blue;">11. Laoban.</span></b> Another maiden? Really? Can we put a stop to this please?<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: purple;">Make Sure You Spend Time at the Inner Harbor</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">10. Fellowship.</span></b> He broke his string of uninspiring third-place finishes by running an even less inspired 4th in an undercard race on Derby Day. This is trending in the wrong direction.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">9. Lani.</span></b> His Derby was a little better than expected in that he actually finished the race ahead of half the field. Of course, he had trouble leaving the gate, was never remotely in contention and didn't beat a horse of consequence, so it's not like we learned that he's the second coming of <b>Sunday Silence</b>. <br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: purple;">Cannon Fodder</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">8. Awesome Speed.</span></b> It's the Tesio winner! Annually we enjoy noting the winner of Maryland's local prep race that hasn't produced a good horse since we received First Communion. This guy's record against poor horses in Maryland is utterly fabulous, and some people are actually interested in him because the horse he beat in the Tesio (<b>Governor Malibu</b>) came back to run a decent second in the Peter Pan. That means nothing to us - Governor Malibu was gaining on a horse that was stretching out by 2 furlongs and would have been passed by a quality horse. Also this colt is early speed in a race with a ton of other early foot. Look for him to connect early with...<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">7. Abiding Star.</span></b> ...a horse that's won 5 straight races. Somehow, in his last 4 wins, he has beaten a total of 17 horses, which seems impossible even in this day of smaller foal crops. There's actually some vaguely interesting breeding here, but he's more early speed with no indication of latent staying power, which means he'll get fried competing with Awesome Speed and...<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #274e13;">6. Collected.</span></b> ...the winner of the Lexington Stakes. People often think that a good performance in the Lexington makes you a Preakness contender, and point to Lexington winner <b>Touch Gold</b>'s outstanding 4th in the '97 Preakness as evidence. That's just wrong. The Lexington produced useful horses for the Preakness at one point; besides Touch Gold, <b>Charismatic</b> won it in '99 (with the Derby in between) and <b>Classic Cat</b> clunked up for 3rd after winning the '98 Lexington. The next Lexington winner to hit the board in Maryland? <b>Divining Rod</b> last year. <br />
<br />
The truth is that the Lexington doesn't get great horses. It is generally the last-chance stop for horses desperately trying
to make the Derby or a prep race for second-tier Preakness horses. The Lexington gets horses that are competitive in the Preakness only if a lot of things go wrong with the contenders. We don't see that here, and the fact that Collected is going to be on the lead with a lot of other speed makes it more likely that he finishes last than first.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: purple;">The Interesting New Horses</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR7T-wildZTCNmg3nmSzOL7nUIUm28hyphenhyphenu7g3ID_QlO7zFYSSBiP6gaqfIJ7XaYEZ4KfGedFZGvZ46OoQpxgolYN0vGQr4Qv24mJcbW7xnLnm2Ez3oOJ7tLlFlvjeyhM-ucXBxjhIsRDuBL/s1600/bernardini.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR7T-wildZTCNmg3nmSzOL7nUIUm28hyphenhyphenu7g3ID_QlO7zFYSSBiP6gaqfIJ7XaYEZ4KfGedFZGvZ46OoQpxgolYN0vGQr4Qv24mJcbW7xnLnm2Ez3oOJ7tLlFlvjeyhM-ucXBxjhIsRDuBL/s320/bernardini.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><b>2006 Preakness Winner Bernardini</b></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;">5. Stradivari.</span></b> We bet that any prognosticator that's picking a winner besides Nyquist and Exaggerator is going with this guy. And it's not without reason - he has solid breeding, a fast win in his last, and is trained by Todd Pletcher. And comparisons to 2006 Preakness winner <b>Bernardini</b> are inevitable - he also was well-bred and well-connected and entered off a blowout win against lesser company. But we think it's a facile comparison. This horse has only made one start this year: an allowance race where the only other good horse faded horribly after a half-mile, basically leaving Stradivari running uncontested for the final 5 furlongs. We don't think he learned anything from the race and the margin of victory is meaningless. By contrast, when Bernardini won the Preakness, he already had three starts in the year and had faced stakes company before the Preakness. Stradivari hasn't done any of that, and we think that's a huge knock. We don't like a horse coming into a classic off of one race in 5 months. And he's going to be <i>wildly</i> overbet: we think the 8-1 morning line on him is high. He's got a shot to hang around for a piece but we prefer others.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;">4. Cherry Wine.</span></b> This guy's case is pretty simple: he's one of two true closers in a race with a lot of early speed and he likes a wet track. Can't see him winning. Easily can see him closing for 3rd or 4th while never threatening the winners.<b><span style="color: #b45f06;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;">3. Uncle Lino.</span></b> There are some things to like here. He's had four straight solid performances in stakes races, even though he still hasn't won a graded stakes yet. After pressing the pace and fading in the San Felipe, he sat off the pace just a little bit in the Santa Anita Derby with somewhat better results - he didn't fade in the stretch, but Exaggerator blew by him in the slop while <b>Mor Spirit</b> outgutted him for second. He seemed to build off that a little bit in the ungraded California Chrome last out - it was a wire-to-wire job, but with relatively reasonable fractions against a field without speed. We do think that if jockey Fernando Perez has learned something, it's that this guy can sit off a hot pace and stalk. Our hope is that this is exactly what happens - he watches 3-4 horses go flying in front of him, makes a solid move on the turn right with or before Nyquist, and gives it a shot down the stretch. He may not be fast enough to compete with the top 2, but he might get a perfect trip and be on the upswing to hit the board. Don't ignore him at 20-1 or so.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><i><b>Duh.</b></i></span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;">2. Exaggerator.</span></b> That Derby effort was pretty good. It was a strong pace and he closed pretty stoutly into it, and was gaining on Nyquist late. And he's going to get a wet track on Saturday, which moves him up in theory. He has a huge shot and it would surprise nobody if he won the black-eyed susans, but we're siding with...<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: purple;">The Pick</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKucuv-qYz1jpke14YQp6APvvWFRycQtH9YRHJrGeXwz7SFcRKq5rSsteuvZo3Usby1yt8pj__5xRWyb13ObyfToUWDTiHY5xjbyRpX6uw8AU5EhVeirG5lZ5ddqIQJs6jx38yT7btK1wY/s1600/ONeill.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKucuv-qYz1jpke14YQp6APvvWFRycQtH9YRHJrGeXwz7SFcRKq5rSsteuvZo3Usby1yt8pj__5xRWyb13ObyfToUWDTiHY5xjbyRpX6uw8AU5EhVeirG5lZ5ddqIQJs6jx38yT7btK1wY/s320/ONeill.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><b>An...interesting version of Nyquist's trainer</b></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. Nyquist.</span></b> No, this is not a reverse jinx. It's us coming to reality. We don't think Nyquist is unbeatable. We just don't think there's a horse in this race that's going to beat him. Lani stinks. 6 of the 8 new shooters would have to run a career top to get 3rd. Stradivari and Uncle Lino are mildly interesting but have to make up a lot of ground to win <i>and</i> have Nyquist regress. Which leaves Exaggerator, who Nyquist has beaten all four times they've faced. Fool us once, etc. We think the race is going to set up perfectly for him, as he'll sit 4th or 5th about 3-4 lengths off the hot pace, and start running on the far turn once the pacesetters wilt. And will have too much left for Exaggerator to pass in the stretch. For the 3rd straight year, we think a Triple Crown will be on the line Belmont day.<br />
<br />
Good luck to all and enjoy the Preakness!El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-18674463196775410832016-05-06T08:45:00.000-04:002016-05-06T08:45:06.448-04:002016 Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The ContendersWe've already written too many words about this race. Let's get right to the top 10.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><i><b>Need to Improve. Now.</b></i></span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">10. Whitmore.</span> </b> The tease horse. He's run 6 times and in 5 of them, he had a troubled trip and/or poor start. (The other? A horrible 5th place finish where the comment is a depressing "nothing left.") His best races have all been around one turn and he's a dead closer in a race without a ton of early speed. It's also tough to endorse him over horses he's been running against that have looked better than him. Take for example...<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>9. Suddenbreakingnews.</b> </span> Focus your attention on the back of the pack for this guy early on; in his three route races, he's never been closer than 10 lengths at the first call. In two of those races, he got a good pace to run into and had no trip trouble, and ran first or second. In the other, he had traffic trouble and was a beaten 5th. The two problems we see are there isn't a ton of pace in this race and he actually isn't that fast - his closing efforts have been more clunk up than a "strong move on the turn" a la <b>Monarchos </b>or <b>Street Sense</b>. He's interesting fodder for a triple or superfecta, but not particularly interesting up top.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMeH3V9YFnhvpYTPv_UKLUPKqcZxd3PRMzySARXgv1EFsVeF3DDqu6CRJ_Om2OCAM7-dcz42E7JlDqGXLbjHnlnSqB6blI1ccXnypYfgZpZmgW4_FqAMtb9oRiOnovcHwA_JtyvBLkdRRR/s1600/uchitel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="134" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMeH3V9YFnhvpYTPv_UKLUPKqcZxd3PRMzySARXgv1EFsVeF3DDqu6CRJ_Om2OCAM7-dcz42E7JlDqGXLbjHnlnSqB6blI1ccXnypYfgZpZmgW4_FqAMtb9oRiOnovcHwA_JtyvBLkdRRR/s200/uchitel.jpg" width="200" /></a>(By the way, kudos to owner Samuel Henderson for giving him a clever name: Suddenbreakingnews' dam is named <b>Uchitel</b>. Who herself is out of a mare named <b>Party Cited</b>.)<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>8. Creator.</b> </span> It took this guy 6 starts to break his maiden, but he seems to have finally figured things out. After taking a lot of money in vain in his first five starts, he also developed into a dead closer and responded with a win-3rd-win in his last three starts. In fact, he basically has the same running profile as Suddenbreakingnews, only with a little more success and slightly better connections. We have the same reservations about pace and trip that we had with Suddenbreakingnews; we rank him a <i>little</i> higher because there's a chance this guy is just a pure runner. He cost $440,000 at auction despite being out of a Peruvian mare that nobody has heard of and never ran north of Panama. So maybe he's just a throwback to those great South American horses that used to come here in the late 90s-early 00s and dominate the older horse circuits (<b>Siphon</b>, <b>Sandpit</b>, <b>Lido Palace</b>, <b>Riboletta</b>). More likely, he's a good closer that doesn't quite get there late.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">7. Gun Runner.</span> </b>It's Steve Asmussen's other starter that, to us, holds the key to the race. He has good early speed and is an actual contender, meaning what he does tactically affects the complexion of the race. There's a chance he guns from his post, challenges Danzing Candy early and sets solid fractions. We think that's suicide; more importantly, it'll give the closers a shot. What's more likely is he sits 3rd or 4th early, tracks a solid pace, and takes the lead when they approach the far turn. What we think <i>then</i> happens is he gets overtaken in the stretch by horses with more talent. We're also skeptical of his chances because his only bad race was also the only time he took on real contenders in this race. His other wins have been either ungraded races or stakes races against horses that aren't running on Saturday and would be 50-1 if they ran. We do think you'll hear his name a lot, but not at the end.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>6. Brody's Cause. </b></span> A horse for the course? Throwing out his
meaningless debut on turf, he's run two meh races when he wasn't at
Keeneland, and ran his three best races when he was at Keeneland. We
have always known that some horses prefer some tracks to others; others
have absolutely despised certain tracks. (<b>Skip Away,</b> a Hall of Famer, <i><b>hated
</b></i> Churchill Downs.) To us, Keeneland has always been one of those love
it/hate it places. And the fact that his best races have <i>all</i>
been at Keeneland while he's shown little that would leave you to
believe that he's great elsewhere has us skeptical of his chances.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><i><b>Everyone's Bomb</b></i></span><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnmn03c35Jte4G8JGlaYHy_9Ax5VijVLPmedovEBMXXP-SsT-30zBVDwALl8P2s-kse_yEaRSZWXKs96rBeGb4yxj70tYt-Z2cIo7s1KWULmDUVKAXJeAG_BIQM0Z6vI-TXy9_bwahIO-Y/s1600/dallasstewart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnmn03c35Jte4G8JGlaYHy_9Ax5VijVLPmedovEBMXXP-SsT-30zBVDwALl8P2s-kse_yEaRSZWXKs96rBeGb4yxj70tYt-Z2cIo7s1KWULmDUVKAXJeAG_BIQM0Z6vI-TXy9_bwahIO-Y/s200/dallasstewart.jpg" width="200" /></a><span style="color: blue;"><b>5. Tom's Ready. </b></span> <b>Golden Soul</b> at 30-1 in the '13 Derby. <b>Commanding Curve</b> at 30-1 in the '14 Derby. <b>Tale of Verve</b> at 30-1 in the '15 Preakness. What these horses all have in common - they were bombs that ran second in those races, and they were trained by Dallas Stewart. This year's Dallas Stewart entry: Tom's Ready, who's 1 for 9 in his career and only qualified for the Derby because he ran second (at 30-1) to Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby in his last.<br />
<br />
There is literally nothing in this horse's past performances that should lead one to believe that he's sitting on a big race. He lost ground in the stretch to Gun Runner and really only finished second by default. Mo Tom, who we don't like at all, has finished in front of him <i>four times</i>. His speed figure for the Louisiana Derby is abnormally high and looks primed for a regression. Even his breeding isn't that exciting; his sire (<b>More Than Ready</b>) is okay but leans more towards milers and turf horses.<br />
<br />
And yet, Dallas Stewart has pulled this off literally each of the last three years with other horses that looked impossible to get into the exacta. Leave him out of exotic wagers at your own risk. (But feel free to ignore him in the win slot.)<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><i><b>Contenders</b></i></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>4. Exaggerator. </b></span> It's the horse with the highest last-out speed figure who won by 6 lengths going away in a key prep over several other contenders. Definite winner, right? Not so fast. Quite literally, <i>everything</i> broke correctly for Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby. The pace was extremely fast. The track was sloppy, which he loved. There was no traffic trouble. And he came into the Santa Anita Derby off a series of stellar workouts and an ideal prep race.<br />
<br />
Here, it's unlikely that the pace is going to be anywhere as fast. We're assuming for the sake of the blog that the track is going to be fast (weather reports say it's going to be sunny and gorgeous). And yes he's working out fine. As are half of the horses in this field. We're inclined to take him over all the other closers in the field, but think he's likely to regress a little off his last, or at best, just not get a perfect trip this time.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>3. My Man Sam.</b> </span> The upside play. We acknowledge that it takes a decent leap of faith to see a horse that's only won a maiden race at the inner track at Aqueduct covered in a blanket of roses, but this guy has a big shot on Saturday. After a completely uninteresting first start, he broke his maiden impressively at Aqueduct, making up a 15-length deficit into a middling pace to win going away by 8 lengths in a quick time. Next out was an allowance race where he ran even faster but lost to the talented <b>Matt King Coal</b> (who lost the Wood, albeit on a wet track we think he didn't love). Trainer Chad Brown - who's superb and is just waiting for his first big dirt horse to become known by non-racing fans - ambitiously slotted him in the Blue Grass, where he closed well despite going 8 wide on the far turn and came up less than two lengths short against Brody's Cause. We also like the fact that he seems to have consolidated his gains speed-wise in the Blue Grass - he didn't move forward, but had an effort that seems to have put him in a position to move forward in his fifth start on Saturday. What we also like is that he's getting back his original rider, Irad Ortiz Jr., who's also outstanding if unheralded. If he can keep this guy a little closer to the pace than he has been in some of his prior efforts, we can see him making a big move on the turn and threatening late, and at a nice price (20-1?).<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>2. Mor Spirit.</b> </span> There are some shades of <b>Silver Charm</b> here. 6 starts into Silver Charm's career, he was never out of the exacta, culminating in an excellent second in the Santa Anita Derby, where he contested a strong pace and couldn't hold off a surging <b>Free House</b>. The tables turned in the Kentucky Derby where Silver Charm had a pace to sit just off of, and he moved forward and held off <b>Captain Bodgit</b> in a truly excellent rendition of the Derby.<br />
<br />
Mor Spirit has a ways to go before hitting Silver Charm's heights, but his career so far has been similar: trained by Bob Baffert, stabled on the West Coast, 7 starts, 7 finishes in the exacta, and a second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. Unlike Silver Charm, though, he didn't run particularly well in his last, as Exaggerator ran right by him with little effort. Which begs the question: has he plateaued, or did he just hate the slop? (Or both?) If he just needed a tightener for the big race, then the Santa Anita Derby is nothing to worry about, and we expect a big effort tomorrow, as he's well-bred, fast, and has the best connections in the sport. But we're concerned that we've already seen his fastest race, which is why we're going with...<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><i><b>The Pick</b></i></span><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHqhk9ZZBhy0AHQoaixu5W0IkokpwZIHcwzME7UAqyUnWmeNf_TYPtmLYSjh8RT3_E8ktZokBUkogqJWiq6D0gpa9GNzP_rCt9CfjzvBHCLeGfvdbSptv4vomNF9NJwjwHLChnyQ4vyseE/s1600/Destin_Tampa_Bay_Derby_615_X_400_orig.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="130" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHqhk9ZZBhy0AHQoaixu5W0IkokpwZIHcwzME7UAqyUnWmeNf_TYPtmLYSjh8RT3_E8ktZokBUkogqJWiq6D0gpa9GNzP_rCt9CfjzvBHCLeGfvdbSptv4vomNF9NJwjwHLChnyQ4vyseE/s200/Destin_Tampa_Bay_Derby_615_X_400_orig.jpg" width="200" /></a><span style="color: blue;"><b>1. Destin.</b></span> ...a pick that we acknowledge looks contrary to everything we've written about the Derby over the last 9 years.<br />
<br />
We have recited the "Derby Rules" time and again on this blog, and have discussed why some are irrelevant (e.g., a gelding can't win the Derby) and why others matter (e.g., The Apollo Rule). And there have been a few that we have deemed essential. A horse must have raced as a 2 year old. Must have 2 starts this year. Must have at least 4 career starts. Must have competed in a recent prep race. Must be in good form.<br />
<br />
By and large, these rules have held true, and there's really only been two exceptions. The first was <b>Mine That Bird</b>, who broke the laws of the Kentucky Derby and common sense to win at an underlaid 50-1. The second was <b>Big Brown</b>, whose talent was obvious, but was coming into the Derby off of only three lifetime starts.<br />
<br />
What did both of these horses have in common? They competed against subpar groups of horses. The second place finisher in Big Brown's Derby was a filly; had she run in the Oaks, Big Brown would have won the Derby by at least 8 lengths. Subsequent races validated the mediocrity of the class - the best of the 18 colts that ran behind Big Brown was <b>Court Vision</b>, whose success was one the turf. Mine That Bird's crop was no better: the best horses that year were <b>Quality Road</b> and <b>I Want Revenge</b>, neither of which made the Derby.<br />
<br />
In case our analysis of the last 19 horses hasn't made it clear, we are completely unimpressed by this crop of horses. Almost everyone has proven to be slow. The vast majority have no early speed. Horses have plateaued as the distances have gotten longer. The couple that we thought were very good before their final preps (Mohaymen, <b>Cupid</b>, Matt King Coal) completely flopped. We're not saying this is as bad as the 2008 group, but we think it's clearly a substandard group of horses.<br />
<br />
We see three likely outcomes from this. The first is that a horse that has already shown good talent does actually take the next step forward and dominates the Derby. The best candidates for that are Mor Spirit and Exaggerator. The second is that someone who has shown flashes of talent but hasn't put it all together yet makes The Leap and wins. That's My Man Sam. But we're siding with Outcome #3: somebody breaks a rule and wins, because what should be a negative actually doesn't matter that much when competing against 19 flawed opponents.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVaZAlTVITnSPQ9mOhcKTZX3T0VUHVlQVys_dOFE-tn6-ly5i8-DvhacmJHr_1IqWiJYFzz99il9GSjk53Qtfo10yvJ5chkh7sLO7vL-rUO_VfIWNjluDKcffH2Fs08WfP2nayptQqKTqZ/s1600/pletcher.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVaZAlTVITnSPQ9mOhcKTZX3T0VUHVlQVys_dOFE-tn6-ly5i8-DvhacmJHr_1IqWiJYFzz99il9GSjk53Qtfo10yvJ5chkh7sLO7vL-rUO_VfIWNjluDKcffH2Fs08WfP2nayptQqKTqZ/s320/pletcher.jpg" width="212" /></a>And that's Destin. He's trained by best-in-the-biz Todd Pletcher and is extremely well bred for 10 furlongs (by <b>Giant's Causeway</b> out of a mare that won 5 graded stakes including the Grade 1 Apple Blossom, and also yielded the good <b>Creative Cause</b>). He won his maiden race impressively at Belmont last fall, then shipped to Gulfstream for a solid second in an allowance race, followed by a meh 4th in the LeComte. He absolutely flourished when Pletcher sent him to Tampa Bay Downs, where he won the Sam Davis with ease, followed by the Tampa Bay Derby in a good time (while having a bad trip), beating Outwork and Brody's Cause in the process. <br />
<br />
Normally a win in the Tampa Bay Derby would lead to a final prep race somewhere else, like the Wood Memorial or the Blue Grass. And that's what Outwork and Brody's Cause both did afterwards - and won. Destin, however, was held back to train up to the Derby, meaning he'll be making his first start in 8 weeks. Why? One of his owners is an adherent to the "Sheets" - an advanced form of speed analysis that we won't get into here - which showed that Destin's Tampa Bay Derby was so good, he needed a little extra time to recover so he could run back to that race in the Derby. Ergo, the rest.<br />
<br />
Pletcher's tried this before: in 2007 he held back <b>Circular Quay</b> from the final round of preps and trained him up to the Derby. That didn't work out so well. Normally, this would make us skeptical and look elsewhere (as we did with Circular Quay in '07). But again, we don't see this as the swiftest group of horses ever assembled on the first Saturday in May. And we know he's fast and well-bred. And has already beaten two of the key contenders in the field. And is working out well. And should be at least 12-1. We're willing to hold our nose a little on his issue and take the plunge on him at a solid price.<br />
<br />
<i><b><span style="color: blue;">How to Wager</span></b></i><br />
<br />
If you're anti-Nyquist, just bet on your horse to win. We don't think a single other horse will be lower than 6-1, heady odds for a good race. We also think there's going to be a ton of value in the exacta because the betting is going to be spread out with money wasted on horses that we think have little chance. Just be wary of taking a closer-closer exacta: that's come in once in the last 15 years (<b>Orb</b>-Golden Soul). Some speed/stalker is almost certain to stick around for a piece. <br />
<br />
<i><b> </b></i><br />
Good luck and enjoy the Derby!El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-31686437289994435702016-05-05T08:45:00.000-04:002016-05-05T08:45:08.814-04:002016 Kentucky Derby Preview Part I: The Lower Tier<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlBlaVSvSqf2WFNi4eCKLzVUvc0f2BpeNBoJrNQ0swr7efvNFLHmJLtoTGPlIE1YhaLoXAkkS_gED2lHZvVnDDhS-MmtR5xCzfgOgtm5yguN7XuZzuAdYxDFIS2kJlcX_g6A0FGIFsRohO/s1600/larry+collmus.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlBlaVSvSqf2WFNi4eCKLzVUvc0f2BpeNBoJrNQ0swr7efvNFLHmJLtoTGPlIE1YhaLoXAkkS_gED2lHZvVnDDhS-MmtR5xCzfgOgtm5yguN7XuZzuAdYxDFIS2kJlcX_g6A0FGIFsRohO/s320/larry+collmus.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Larry Collmus, the voice of the Derby.</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The fields have been drawn, and it's time for our annual breakdown of the Kentucky Derby. This is one of our favorite endeavors every year, even though it's often an exercise in frustration. Let's get to it. The usual rules and caveats apply: we're ignoring the also-eligibles, we're assuming the track is fast and fair, and we're taking you from the horses we see having the least chance to win to the most. This year we get to start off with something of a novelty project.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><i><b>Mine That Bird 2.0</b></i></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="color: blue;">20. Trojan Nation. </span></b> It's not cheap to run a horse in the Kentucky Derby. Assuming your horse runs, the entry fee alone is $50,000. You have to get your horse to Kentucky, train him and secure a jockey, which yes you have to do even if you were running in some nondescript race in Pennsylvania, but is still a cost. Then there's the cost of attending - as the owner, assume you're on the hook for tickets, flights, and hotels for yourself, your family, and your entourage. That's easily another $20,000. (Seriously - check out hotel prices in Louisville this week if you're bored.) A trainer once remarked that if you run worse than 2nd in the Derby, you lose money on the weekend.<br />
<br />
Given all this...what's the upside of running a maiden in the Kentucky Derby? Yeah, he ran 2nd in the Wood Memorial. And he actually has vaguely interesting breeding. But he has, literally, ZERO wins. The Kentucky Derby is not going to be his first win. And it's going to cost the owners a lot of money for what is a colossal ego trip.<br />
<br />
What's even more amazing is that this horse probably isn't going to be 100-1. Given recent betting patterns in the Derby and the fact that two horses have won at 50-1 in the last dozen years, we think he'll be no longer than 50-1. Ignore him. And hope that he keeps out of everyone else's way.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><i><b>Your Ambition is Admirable</b></i></span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">19. Lani.</span></b> It's this year's winner of the UAE Derby! The first 15 editions didn't produce a single horse that finished in the top 5 of the Kentucky Derby, and there's no reason to think this will be any different. What's equally notable is that it appears that even Godolphin has given up on hitting the Dubai-Derby Double. Back in 1998 when they purchased <b>Worldly Manner</b> for $5 million and trained him up to the Derby, people were predicting it was only a matter of time before Godolphin figured this out and stole the crown. Worldly Manner's experience went horribly - he was spent at the top of the lane and ran 7th, never to be heard from again. (He did a lot better than <b>Comeonmom</b>, a modestly bred horse that Godolphin paid $3 million for after he won the Remsen at 30-1 and never won again.) They didn't fare much better in the decade since then, as their best finish was <b>China Visit's</b> 6th in 2000. Heck, they haven't had a horse tried to pull this off since <b>Regal Ransom</b> in 2009.<br />
<br />
As to Lani, look for him guy to retreat early and return to Japan for the rest of the year. And for us to go through this spiel again next year with some other non-factor.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>18. Oscar Nominated</b>. </span> Everything about this horse screams grass runner. Literally everything - his breeding, his connections, his successes on the turf to date, and his solid closing kick. He did win on a non-turf race last out, but the Spiral is on a synthetic surface, which is not dirt. Yeah we know <b>Animal Kingdom</b> pulled this off in 2011, blah blah blah. We're not interested. We'll get curious once he's on the sod again.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">17. Majesto.</span></b> Woody Allen did say that 80% of life is just showing up. That's almost exactly true with this horse, who made about 80% of his career earnings in the Florida Derby where he clunked up for second when favored Mohaymen no-showed. If people ever wonder why seemingly hopeless longshots enter races with decent sized purses, this is why - all you need is one horse to have a bad day to stumble into a good paycheck. (This doesn't apply for Oscar Nominated, who needs 17 of his competitors to have a bad day to win.) Horses like Majesto - longshots who outrun their odds in the Derby prep race for an obvious reason that have nothing to do with their actual talent - are some of the worst bets in the Derby.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><i><b>Wow That Prep Was Garbage</b></i></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>16. Danzing Candy.</b> </span> This horse has exactly one path to victory: go to the front, hope that he isn't challenged early, pray for a speed bias, and hold on for dear life. Given how badly he faded in his last, we're siding with "unlikely."<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">15. Shagaf. </span></b> We like to note the line between no-hopers and possibilities; we think that it actually falls around here. We're not in love with Shagaf for reasons we'll get to in a second, but this year's Derby is full of horses that have flaws, some of which are almost identical to each other. Getting any of the next 15 horses into the trifecta isn't impossible, and we won't argue with anyone playing a multi-race wager whose stated goal is to get to the Derby alive to ten horses.<br />
<br />
Shagaf won his first three races but all against suspect fields - he didn't beat a single horse running on Saturday (unless also eligible <b>Adventist </b>draws in). He went off as the favorite in the Wood Memorial and had absolutely nothing on the turn and into the stretch, finishing a lackluster 5th, beaten by, among others, Trojan Nation. Now there's a possible excuse: the track was muddy on Wood day, and maybe he just doesn't like the slop. But the history of horses winning the Derby off a bad prep race is abysmal; they're usually some of the easiest tosses. That's why we're against him, as well as...<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6NH-obdVUl-z1HbZ0FoqqfqUmv2LA2_C_tDvWKCl_pTl8W3iQzIVm6BfoUen7Rnd3ZkFv51Rk8ePDJB5SnzrKvVnQRrUD7DaJpl0RAFLne3u4hdXk1AaKxls_2kzNPQ0fyo5oJPLNiGZm/s1600/Mohaymen+The+holy+bull3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6NH-obdVUl-z1HbZ0FoqqfqUmv2LA2_C_tDvWKCl_pTl8W3iQzIVm6BfoUen7Rnd3ZkFv51Rk8ePDJB5SnzrKvVnQRrUD7DaJpl0RAFLne3u4hdXk1AaKxls_2kzNPQ0fyo5oJPLNiGZm/s320/Mohaymen+The+holy+bull3.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Mohaymen</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="color: blue;"><b>14. Mohaymen.</b> </span> ...the horse that was our pick 6 weeks ago. It's not that Mohaymen <i>can't</i> win, he has a nice pedigree, was 5-for-5 before the Florida Derby with some good wins, and has nice tactical speed in what looks like a race without a ton of early pace. But his Florida Derby was just horrible. He had the frontrunner in his sights and tailed off miserably in the stretch to finish behind Majesto and a horse that would be 40-1 if he ran on Saturday. And there was no obvious excuse for his fade - he'd run well at Gulfstream before, was training nicely up to the race, and the track may have had a touch of moisture but wasn't sloppy. We wouldn't strongly argue against someone using him in the Derby, but we think taking a short price on him (we think he'll be around 8-1) seems like folly.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: purple;"><i><b>No Mo</b></i></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>13. Outwork.</b> </span> Pedigree doesn't matter as much as it used to in the Derby, but it's still a factor. Which brings us to <b>Uncle Mo</b>, who people may remember from our blog 5-6 years ago as the hotshot 2 year old that won the Breeders Cup Juvenile with ease, followed by a disappointing 3 year old season that was marred by injuries. Uncle Mo was retired to stud following his 3yo season and his first crop of horses debuted in 2015. It was a helluva debut crop: so far his progeny has won 10 graded stakes races, 5 Grade 1s, and a slew of other races. At auction, his offspring have been some of the most-sought after. He has been so successful in the stud barn that his sire fee more than doubled from $35,000 to $75,000, and nobody thought it was ridiculous.<br />
<br />
All that said...we are completely unconvinced that Uncle Mo wanted any part of 10 furlongs - he never won beyond 8 1/2 furlongs - and that his progeny do either. His father, <b>Indian Charlie</b>, was a good horse but was a miler and his other top progeny (<b>Indian Blessing</b>) was a miler. The distance breeding is more likely to come from his mother's side (she was out of good distance sire <b>Arch</b>) but we're still unconvinced that this is a sire that's going to yield classic winners. We think he's much more likely to yield a bunch of outstanding sprinters and milers. And that's fine! But it doesn't help Outwork on Saturday, a talented developing horse who also has to overcome the fact that he won the Wood by a shortening head over the execrable Trojan Nation. And it also doesn't help...<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">12. Mo Tom.</span></b> ...this dead closer who <i>constantly</i> seems to find traffic trouble. These horses are some of our least favorites: full of potential but also full of excuses in their past performance lines. Sure, he's got a chance to get a clean run and close for a piece. But in a race with several closers with better late kicks and stouter breeding, we're looking elsewhere.<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh2sqoKMsFStki6RW4T4EI4FKK8AzkvIoE74v7ZuHVUIIhGzmb6gZwase1QxG3W5o-oi0Q8YWlS93wVYFtIm_YuHkf7DcnRuIuOkxLZr3ydorMe2grwasvAidwnardQXdzMfMYR5S6Vq0i/s1600/harry+nyquist.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh2sqoKMsFStki6RW4T4EI4FKK8AzkvIoE74v7ZuHVUIIhGzmb6gZwase1QxG3W5o-oi0Q8YWlS93wVYFtIm_YuHkf7DcnRuIuOkxLZr3ydorMe2grwasvAidwnardQXdzMfMYR5S6Vq0i/s400/harry+nyquist.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Harry Nyquist</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="color: blue;"><b>11. Nyquist.</b> </span> Okay, we will admit that we have bet against this horse repeatedly, and have repeatedly ripped up our tickets. He's 7-for-7 with wins at 4 racetracks on both coasts, has beaten a decent number of these horses already, and has good tactical speed. We get it. But in addition to being not really bred for 10 furlongs, he's just <u>not</u> <u>that</u> <u>fast</u>. His Florida Derby was slow. His Breeders Cup Juvenile was meh against the clock. His two fastest races were sprints; he's slowed down as the races have gotten shorter. We're not that impressed with his Florida Derby because once Mohaymen no-showed, he was basically running against allowance-level horses. His Juvenile win last year was good and came against a few horses higher on this list, but we can't help think that the wet track helped a little, and note that the horse he perennially beat (<b>Swipe</b>) still hasn't won a second race and was trounced in the Lexington two weeks ago.<br />
<br />
Look, we were wrong about <b>California Chrome</b> two years ago. And we'll be okay with being wrong on this guy on Saturday - it would be neat for the two year old champ to win the Derby and enter the Preakness 8-for-8. It's about the only narrative that could try to match <b>American Pharoah</b>. But we're just not seeing it. We think he's a highly beatable favorite and won't be using him on any of our tickets Saturday.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>Coming up tomorrow</b>:</span> The top half and our betting advice.El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-86719165741368934832016-04-04T13:10:00.000-04:002016-04-04T13:10:08.876-04:00Transactions Analysis: The 2016 Draft<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji1p7nOsm45l3blih70HXtLoAR9NzsFAcicDSxjvf44mbmYpHMjl62iBaAfPpnvu9o4kOtl5XrMPVoQdqL0P5JnL2DjAa904bJaqip9L3HOABxn0uursHJUGsYIRykfVA56TM4KBLWeak/s1600/transaction.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji1p7nOsm45l3blih70HXtLoAR9NzsFAcicDSxjvf44mbmYpHMjl62iBaAfPpnvu9o4kOtl5XrMPVoQdqL0P5JnL2DjAa904bJaqip9L3HOABxn0uursHJUGsYIRykfVA56TM4KBLWeak/s320/transaction.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
It's baseball time! This now marks the 12th anniversary of the TA column that Teddy and I started when nobody knew who Barack Obama was and Donald Trump was merely some schmuck with a reality TV show, rather than the putative nominee of a major political party. The earliest TA that I can find dates from July 2004, and let's just marvel at one of the entries, which has so much to like:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: #eeeeee; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;">Grogan's Heroes </span></span></b></div>
<b></b><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;"><br /></span></b></div>
<b>
<span style="color: blue;"></span></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: #eeeeee; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;">Signed Rich Aurilia, SS, No team, and Jason Marquis, SP, St. Louis [7/6] </span></span></b></span></b></div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">
<span style="background-color: #eeeeee; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;"></span></span></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: #eeeeee; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;"><b style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;">Traded Carlos Lee, OF, Chicago (AL) to The Whales' Vaginas for Carl The Truth Pavano, SP, Florida [7/12] </span></span></b></span></span></b></div>
<b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: #eeeeee; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;">
</span></span></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
<b><span style="color: blue;">
<span style="background-color: #eeeeee; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;"></span></span></b>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: #eeeeee; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;"><b style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;">Easily my favorite move of the week: The Naked Bootlegs pick up a shortstop that ISN'T ON A TEAM. How the hell is he going to accumulate stats, Teddy? (AG) </span></span></b></span></span></b></div>
<b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: #eeeeee; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;">
</span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="background-color: #eeeeee; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;">OK, this is clearly the dumbest move of the year to date. Allow me to explain. After trading Miggy [Tejada], I had no SS. At the time I made the move, Aurillia was still on Seattle. The available SS s were guys who had either sucked for their entire careers, or Rich Aurillia. I took Aurillia figuring he couldn t be worse than, say, Neifi Perez in the second half. Then he got cut. </span></span></b></div>
</span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="background-color: #eeeeee; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "clean" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: 13.52px; line-height: 16.4944px;">As for the trade, I cashed in one of my crop of borderline-keeper OFs (still including Dye, Kearns, and Sweet Lew Ford, who is Carlos Lee's non-union non-Mexican equivalent) for a pitching flyer. Why Pavano Will Keep It Up: Nice K rates over the past few years; pitcher s park. Why Pavano Is A Fluke: BABIP is currently like 40 points below his career average. Eventually some more of those balls are going to land, but I still think he ll be useful next year. (CP)</span></span></b></div>
</span></span></b><br />
<br />
(Post script: <b>Carl Pavano</b> was a craptacular Yankee the following year, and <b>Lew Ford</b> won the Atlantic League MVP in 2014, right after <b>Carlos Lee</b> finished his $100 million contract. Neifi Perez continued to suck.)<br />
<br />
So while we've cut back on the columns significantly - thank you, careers and families! - we still laced up the boots one more time for the annual draft post. Oddly, I think I'm going to enjoy this more than the actual draft. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Yes, my youngest turns two this week and we spent the weekend at my inlaws celebrating. So I was attempting to draft while surrounded by my wife's family and trying to negotiate their crappy satellite wifi. The combination meant I was either offline or distracted for most of the draft. And that's how you end up with Hunter Pence and Matt Holliday on your roster--when I picked Holliday, I didn't even know that autodraft had grabbed Pence.<br />
<br />
I should probably try to pass that off as a strategic gamble that declining two-category OFs are the new market inefficiency. But that seems like a lot of effort, so I've gone with radical honesty instead. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">1. Drumpf: Bryce Harper, OF, Washington.</span></b> <br />
<br />
We start the draft with a bit of perfectly legal gamesmanship, as Corey takes the opportunity given to him with the first pick in the draft to re-set Harper's contract, who otherwise, would have been 3 slots this year, and up to 5 by 2018. By doing this Corey gets to keep Harper at 3 slots or less well into his career as a Yankee, and also gets to keep two extra guys this year. Sadly, they turned out to by <b>Billy Burns</b> and his perfunctory annual Blue Jay, <b>Marcus Stroman</b>. The other alternative, obviously, was to keeper Harper at 3 slots, dump Burns and Stroman, and draft <b>Giancarlo Stanton</b> or <b>Clayton Kershaw</b>, giving you two of the 5 best players in baseball for the next 2 years. Me? I would have gone with Plan B. But I get why he did this. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
I think it depends on where you are in the win cycle. Different combinations of guys have different values depending on whether you are looking to win now or stockpile. But, yeah, one year of a Harper-Stanton OF would have been ridiculous. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">2. Backpfeifengesicht '16: Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles.</span></b><br />
<br />
I'm generally not pro taking pitchers at the top of the draft, but when it's the best pitcher since Pedro Martinez, I can't argue with it. (El Angelo) <br />
<br />
The first four picks have a common theme. There was more than one guy worth taking. Either option was reasonable, but one was just slightly more reasonable than the other. I think that Harper>Kershaw>Stanton>Sale>Miggy is just about the right order, but it's hard to get to exercised over the placement of any two consecutive links in that chain. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">3. Jazzy Rural Grammar: Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Florida.</span></b> <br />
<br />
Getting one of the 6 best players in baseball with the third pick in a keeper draft has to be one of the best coups we've had since the initial draft. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Yes, see above. Although you really do need a functioning face in order to play baseball at the highest level. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;">4. Raymond Greenleaf: Chris Sale, SP, Chicago (AL).</span></b> <br />
<br />
Sale has been a player I've always enjoyed watching and know is amazing but still can't believe his arm hasn't Dravecky'd. I would constantly worry about him getting hurt and making this pick worthless, so I probably would have leaned Cabrera, but won't criticize much. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
He handcuffed Sale with Dr. James Andrews, so he got himself some insurance. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">5. Balco Bartokomous: Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH, Detroit.</span></b> <br />
<br />
As usual, pick #5 is un-fuckup-able. Then again, this is a little reminiscent of the year Teddy took Johan Santana at 5 - a star that quickly fell to pieces. I still approve, though. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Yeah, this marks the end of the no-brainer group. Which means that things really only get interesting after this point, because this group can't always be trusted to make good decisions when left to its own devices.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>6. Le Dupont Torkies: Steve Matz, SP, New York (NL).</b></span> <br />
<br />
This drew a bunch of "huhs?" in the draft chat, but I actually don't mind it. The quality of players available after pick 5 was a chasm. If you're conceding that you can get a second baseman in the next round, you don't have to take <b>Jason Kipnis </b>here, and any team that's going for a multi-year approach doesn't want <b>Big Papi</b>. That leaves you with a bunch of starting pitchers, and if you're building long-term, you may as well go for the highest upside. Matz wasn't going to last until the second round, so while it's risky, it's defensible. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
I grant the premise that basically anyone taken in this spot was going to feel like a reach. It feels like there should be good players left in the middle of the first round, but that's just not always the case in this league. That said, even really talented number 5 starters are problematic. He'll probably be on an innings limit, and he throws a ton of pitches per inning. Given that the Torkies nearly always have a short rotation, they're going to need a ton of RP vulture wins to pay this pick off. (Teddy) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">7. Wu Tang Financial: Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis.</span></b> <br />
<br />
I am not in love with Wainwright this year or going forward - too injured, too old, and the Cards are the third best team in an absurdly competitive division. It also seems high to take a guy that started 4 games last year. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
This is the guy you pick if you're one SP away from contending this year. With a staff of Pineda-Corbin-Fiers up top? Maybe fishing for upside was the better play. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;">8. Cruz-Gaynor 2016: Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland.</span></b> <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUX_duEHGimLjXu5mUxBImQyvRgkEM4wYosPahKpND_neK5e4Ktp4z4bP8G1h_Kv7fZFx87J_AWL5DT-gXFuBqA4K6T1b4DHkizvSdq02sJCEQqcgs6x1-teTaajyVJWS8ASFTm5ig5xE/s1600/wand.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUX_duEHGimLjXu5mUxBImQyvRgkEM4wYosPahKpND_neK5e4Ktp4z4bP8G1h_Kv7fZFx87J_AWL5DT-gXFuBqA4K6T1b4DHkizvSdq02sJCEQqcgs6x1-teTaajyVJWS8ASFTm5ig5xE/s200/wand.png" width="141" /></a></div>
I'm ecstatic he fell to me at 8. If you write off his 2014 season as lost to injury, he's in line to have 3-4 seasons of very-goodness, which for a shallow position is fine. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
"Ecstatic"? Come on. Jason Kipnis is not only one of the least ecstasy-inducing players in baseball, he is one of the least ecstasy-inducing concepts in modern American life. As an idea, "Jason Kipnis" is sandwiched between "cleaning computer keyboard" and "rotating minivan tires" in terms of ecstasty-generation capacity. He couldn't produce ecstasy with a Hitachi Magic Wand and a blu-ray of Magic Mike.<br />
<br />
Good pick, though. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">9. Trumpmouse Wormcruz: Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore.</span></b> <br />
<br />
I feel like Jones is always a bit overrated in this league because he's a good batting average guy with power, but is just meh in our OBP format because he doesn't walk. I also can't believe he still hasn't turned 30 yet. It seems like he was a prospect in our inaugural draft 14 years ago. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
He became less exciting once he stopped running a few years ago. But the Baltimore offense is going to score a lot of runs, so he has a chance to have a <b>Kendrys Morales</b>-style bump year by running up counting stats. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">10. Paging Dr. Rumack: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, New York (AL).</span></b> <br />
<br />
This all depends on the competence of the Yankees' medical staff - if Ellsbury is healthy and plays 145 games, he'll steal 40 bases and have a passable OBP with decent ancillary stats. But again, banking on old outfielders in the first round is not my cup of tea. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
The thing with Ellsbury isn't just that he gets hurt. It's that once hurt, it takes him forever to heal. He is the anti-<b>Wolverine</b>. But even if he's not Wolverine, I don't mind him as an upside<b> Gambit</b>.<br />
<br />
(I KNOW YOU ALL LAUGHED AT THAT, YOU NERDS!) (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">11. Cruz-Gaynor 2016 (from The Spam Avengers): Jake Odorizzi, SP, Tampa Bay.</span></b> <br />
<br />
I had a list of 4 young starting pitchers that I valued fairly equally and sort of picked him as the best of the upside guys. Odorizzi sliced his walk rate by over 1 per 9 innings last year and is supposedly working on a breaking ball that might move him up a notch, plus he plays in front of a quality defense. Not wanting to go reliever in the first round, I pinched my nose and took a chance. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Lacking a natural place to mention this, I'll leave it here based on the tenuous TB connection: I love <b>Drew Smyly</b> this year, and I'm horrified he was snatched away from me.<br />
<br />
TB is a sneaky good pitcher's park, so I can see taking Odorizzi here over a few guys I think are better on talent but play in worse parks (<b>Francisco Liriano</b>, <b>Raisel Iglesias</b>). (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;">12. The Aristocrats!: David Ortiz, DH, Boston.</span></b> <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVUqaciciMyRVkITADAsLRjpNU8GzFT7Edprq0vHpFRE-HHvJEEG6cdGV2ThzeoaXmx_EIkJrhPJ2vN1R3C4YlxhwKz-p_sjsuW4Opht5QgR4sbEmzOERl_wb4Cnxv7k57Au0HF50XUqs/s1600/download.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVUqaciciMyRVkITADAsLRjpNU8GzFT7Edprq0vHpFRE-HHvJEEG6cdGV2ThzeoaXmx_EIkJrhPJ2vN1R3C4YlxhwKz-p_sjsuW4Opht5QgR4sbEmzOERl_wb4Cnxv7k57Au0HF50XUqs/s1600/download.jpg" /></a></div>
If you're drafting a guy who's not going to be playing next year, I think it's safe to say you're going for it this year. Solid pick with no long-term value. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Where can I place a bet that Ortiz appears on Saturday Night Live at some point this year, so he can duet with <b>Keenan Thompson</b>'s impression of him? Because that is free money if it's on the board somewhere. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">13. Trumpmouse Wormcruz: Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles.</span></b> <br />
<br />
The only surprise to me was that Ironhead didn't take him in the first round. He's about as good as closers get, and allows you to move on from finishing in the basement in saves. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
CLOSER RUN!!! (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">14. Cruz-Gaynor 2016: Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta.</span></b> <br />
<br />
With E5 manning first and outfielders coming out of my ears, I didn't "need" Freeman, but he's too good a player to let by at this point. He's going to knock nobody in with that horrible Atlanta lineup around him, but his OBP boost makes up for a multitude of sins. But honestly, this pick is as much for 2018 as for 2016. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Yeah, this is a good value at this spot. Boring, but true. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">15. The Aristocrats! (from Wu Tang Financial, via Cruz-Gaynor 2016): Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas.</span></b> <br />
After a solid 2015, Kinsler passed <b>Ken Holtzman</b> and is now third on the list of best Jewish players ranked by WAR, behind <b>Hank Greenberg</b> and <b>Sandy Koufax</b>. (<b>Ryan Braun</b>? 4th.) Mazel tov! (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
That was quite the plateau from 2d to 3d. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;">16. Le Dupont Torkies: Rougned Odor, 2B, Texas.</span></b> <br />
<br />
The second half of Tucker's gamble pans out, as our stinky second basemen is now on his team. (El Angelo) <br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">17. Balco Bartokomous: Tyson Ross, SP, San Diego.</span></b> <br />
<br />
Ross is a good pitcher, but I'm concerned he won't be in San Diego by July, meaning what are now long fly balls will be home runs in Minute Maid Park or wherever the hell he ends up. But as long as you're not leaning on him as your #1 or 2, he's fine. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">18. Dickie Greenleaf: David Roberston, RP, Chicago (NL).</span></b> <br />
<br />
We're about to echo back now to the <a href="http://gowanusbaseball.blogspot.com/2011/03/transactions-analysis-post-2011-draft.html">2011 Draft</a>, where a whopping <i><b>six</b></i> closers went in the second round, prompting many of us to scratch their heads. Robertson is the second of six relievers taken in this round, yet I can't quite knock it because he's a good pitcher and will accumulate saves on a mediocre team, and probably be closing for the rest of the decade. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">19. Jazzy Rural Grammar: Trevor Rosenpenis, RP, St. Louis.</span></b> <br />
<br />
This is about the last pick on the bubble that seemed okay to me - Rosenthal looked shaky by the end of last year, but he's got that Cardinals' closing job by the nuts and should churn out 35 saves for a couple of seasons. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;">20. Backpfeifengesicht16: Rasiel Iglesias, SP, Cincinnati.</span></b> <br />
<br />
Iglesias was basically the other guy I thought about taking instead of Odorizzi at 11, so suffice to say if I like a guy at 11, I quite like him at 20. For me, the line in part was I think Tampa might be sneaky good this year, while the Reds suck. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
Yeah, between that and the park I could see him being a top-15 pitcher by context-neutral metrics while cranking out an 11-10 3.95 ERA season that doesn't help me a lick. But by this point we're all just choosing our warts. (Teddy)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">21. Drumpf: Hector Rondon, RP, Chicago (NL).</span></b> <br />
<br />
From the man who brought us <b>Huston Street's</b> wolf-eaten labrum in 2011, it's another 3rd-tier closer! Rondon isn't untalented, he's just a middling reliever that Joe Maddon is bound to fuck with at the least opportune time for his owner. At least Rondon's real team isn't cursed. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">22. Paging Dr. Rumack: David Peralta, OF, Arizona.</span></b> <br />
<br />
Willy's bastard brother will get you some decent OBP if he keeps the gains from last year, but there isn't a ton more in his stat line that gets you excited. Looking at the quality of outfielders taken this year, I guess outfield was painfully shallow post-keepers. (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">23. The Spam Avengers: Aroldis Chapman, RP, New York (AL).</span></b> <br />
<br />
The guy throws gas and is a fun player to watch, but he's the Yankees' third-best reliever and is suspended until Mother's Day. Have we ever had a guy taken this high who had no opportunity to accumulate useful stats for the first half of the season? (El Angelo)<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;">24. The Aristocrats!: Roberto Osuna, RP, Toronto.</span></b> <br />
<br />
How fabulous would it be if <b>Drew Storen</b> knocks this guy out of the closing role, the way Papelbon did to Storen in Washington? Would more choking occur in the dugout, or are Canadians too nice for that? Also I'm suspicious when <i>Corey </i>passes on a Toronto closer. (El Angelo)El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6544180035939625973.post-25938227924261888442015-10-31T09:29:00.000-04:002015-10-31T09:29:59.003-04:00Breeders Cup 2015 Preview Part 3: The Breeders Cup ClassicApologies for being a day later than expected - work obligations tied us up. With Beholder's scratch, we have an interesting field of 9 assembled for the Classic. Let's get to it.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Hope Your Owner Got Great Seats!</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">9. Hard Aces.</span></b> He snuck into this race by winning the nee Hollywood Gold Cup at a big price. That was his only winning effort this year, and it wasn't particularly fast. Hope they enjoy the Kentucky hospitality.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">8. Effinex</span></b>. Named by a guy a scorned by his "effing ex," he's had some decent efforts at 10 furlongs this year at New York tracks, but hasn't been in good form since this summer. We would ordinarily say he's vaguely interesting to close for a piece at a price, but this race is so full of good closers that we can't see him outkicking them all.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Not Buying the Hype</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">7. Gleneagles.</span></b> Our latest effort by Aiden O'Brien to conquer the Classic, this guy is getting a fair amount of hype as a longshot play and we think we'll be around 10-1. We're not seeing it. Let's ignore the Classics held on polytrack for a minute - the only two horses that have hit the board were <b>Giant's Causeway</b> and <b>Declaration of War</b>, both of which were perfectly bred for the dirt. This guy, not so much. Think more <b>Galileo</b>, who was up the track.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">6. Keen Ice.</span></b> The only horse to beat American Pharoah this year, we will admit that this guy has improved since being a plodder during the Triple Crown trail. But we're not that interested in him here. His Travers win was pretty much the definition of being in the right place to succeed when the favorite failed, which doesn't always portend greatness - anyone remember the name of the horse that stopped Cigar's streak? We see a one-paced effort that threatens nobody.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Maybe, With a Big Step Forward</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">5. Smooth Roller.</span></b> He's only making his 5th start, so there's at least some upside here. We call b.s. on his speed figure in his last effort - which is actually the highest last out figure - but he's bred for the distance and could be getting good at the right time. But he still hasn't faced or beaten a top-shelf horse. We think he's best used defensively.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: purple;">4. Frosted.</span></b> He finally broke through with a big win in the Pennsylvania Derby which may be a little better than it looks. He sat off the pace, didn't have the best of trips with traffic issues, but exploded in the stretch. We're ordinarily wary of a 3 year old that hasn't faced older horses yet in this spot, but last year, when 3yos ran 1-2-3-4-5, may have dispelled that notion. He'll probably be in the second flight of horses off American Pharoah and we can definitely see him threatening the winner, especially if one of the next three don't fire.<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">Contenders</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">3. Honor Code.</span></b> If this race had something resembling a pace we'd be a lot more interested, because he's clearly the most- or second-most talented horse in the race. But with Beholder's scratch there's only one or two horses that may make American Pharoah run at all. Our guess is he falls too far behind and runs well late but doesn't nearly get up in time.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">2. American Pharoah.</span></b> So why are we not picking him over...<br />
<br />
<b><i><span style="color: blue;">The Pick</span></i></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">1. Tonalist.</span></b> ...our upset pick? First, we're unconvinced that Tonalist is going to be a mile off the pace again this race - this horse has shown tactical speed in the past and we think he'll do it again, making sure American Pharoah has some pressure, at worst, with a half mile to go. Second, we like the recency in Tonalist's run. Horses off a longer layoff have traditionally been poor bets here. But we see Smooth Roller challenging him first, then Tonalist coming with about a half mile to go and putting him away in the stretch.<br />
<br />
Good luck to all!El Angelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14145024095815950963noreply@blogger.com0