The Gowanus Rotisserie Baseball Gazette

Reviewing the 2011 Fantasy Predictions

2012-01-02T08:56:00.000-05:00

Back to some content that's actually related to the original purpose of this blog: our glorious fantasy baseball league. Yes, we realize that we're closer to pitchers and catchers than we are to last year's World Series, but it was a busy fall and holiday season. Consider this something of a run up to this year's keeper lists.

At the beginning of the year we asked everyone to submit their predictions for the year. Eight of you were kind enough to submit forecasts, ranking the teams 1 - 12, which we then used to compile an aggregate prediction. When we did this in 2010, the results sucked. This year? The league did a bit better.

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, the league correctly concluded that Alex had the best keeper list since the early portion of Tucker's dynasty and put him in the top slot. The league also correctly figured that my collection of stars was better than everyone else's and that I was going for it this year, putting me in the silver medal slot. And while not a direct hit, per se, putting Jake in 4th and just a whisker out of third, was pretty damn close.

As reflected in the right column, the league's "Delta" was 36, i.e., the Wisdom of the Crowds was off by an average of 3 with teams this year. By contrast, last year the league's Delta was 39. We're still not sure if this is good or bad--you would think we'd be closer than an average of three positions off when two teams are 100% accurate--but we'll try this experiment again next year and see what we come up with.

How did the individual pickers do? Of the eight who submitted picks, six guessed two dead-on, meaning that method of evaluation isn't helpful. The predictor with the lowest Delta was my co-author Teddy, who checked in with an even 30, comprised of nailing the top two finishers, and being 1 slot off with five other participants. It's good to know that his skills of analyzing transactions has come in handy somewhere.

On the lower end of the spectrum, Sahil checked in as the worst predictor with a Delta of 52, with Scot right behind him at 46. Scot's in particular is notable, because he picked two teams on the nose and three teams off by one. Of course, when the remaining seven slots are 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 8 and 10 positions off, you're going to go near the bottom of the pile.

As noted last fall, we'll try this again in 2012 to see how it shakes out.

2011 Eclipse Awards Part II: Who's Horse of the Year?

2011-12-30T15:00:00.000-05:00

Resolved: to be Horse of the Year, you have to be your divisional champion.

Pretty straightforward proposition, right? It's not at a rule that you'll find in the Eclipse Awards manual, but it stands to reason. You can't be the champion for all of horse racing if you're not the champion of your own division. It would be akin to a player winning the NBA MVP while not being voted to the All-NBA team. Since the NBA/ABA merger, this has never happened.

We mention this because there is a groundswell of support in the racing community to name Rapid Redux Horse of the Year. For those who haven't been following racing that closely, Rapid Redux has won every race he's started in 2011, and in the process tied the immortal Citation's record for most wins in a year (19) and has shattered the record for most consecutive wins with 21 wins. He's had a neat campaign.

Here's the problem: Rapid Redux is nowhere near a very good horse. He's run in nothing but starter allowance races--races that horses that have previously run in claiming races can run in--at smaller tracks in Maryland, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. He's never cracked 95 on the Gowanus Speed Figure scale. He's earned under $250,000 for the year because he's been running in races that have tiny purses. And he's beaten zero horses of consequence.

There is no chatter of Rapid Redux competing with the likes of Tizway, Acclamation and Game on Dude for the Older Male Eclipse Award, nor should there be. Those horses won Grade 1 races, and if healthy, would likely thrash Rapid Redux in a given race. Despite that reality, Rapid Redux is getting some traction for HOTY because the other candidates are not particularly inspiring. Hisconsistency is commendable, but giving him HOTY would be akin to crowning a golfer who won 10 times on the Nationwide Tour the player of the year. It's just wrong.

So circling back to our original proposition, there are 10 true candidates for HOTY--the 10 divisional champs discussed in yesterday's post. Let's knock them off one by one until we get to our pick for HOTY.

10. Sassy's Image.

9. Caleb's Posse.

8. Tizway. Picking the champions from these divisions came down to a process that was incrementally better than Rock, Paper, Scissors. There's no real argument that any of them were the "best" this year.

7. Hansen. While undefeated and the clear divisional winner, he won a whopping 1 graded stakes race, 3 races overall, and won the Juvenile in no small part because Union Rags failed to run in a straight line. He's good, but not in the Favorite Trick echelon.

6. Amazombie. He had a neat year and an admirable record--5 wins in 9 starts and never out of the money--but for a sprinter to take the title, he needs to be dominating. He wasn't.

5. Stacelita. Had she won the Filly and Mare Turf, we would have given her some real consideration. Since she won fewer than half her starts this year--yes, we're counting that loss in France--she's not a real contender.

4. Cape Blanco. He'll get some votes for the title, but we just don't love his candidacy. Yeah, he won 3 Grade 1's in the US, but two of them were over horrible fields, and he lost all his starts in Europe before coming stateside. Plus, we're unconvinced that he was actually better than St. Nicholas Abbey. Can you be Horse of the Year when you may not be Horse of Your Barn?

3. Royal Delta. Her two losses in the summer and fall just kill her candidacy. Her Alabama and Distaff wins were fabulous, but she completely no-showed in the CCA Oaks and finished 8 1/2 lengths behind Havre de Grace in the Beldame. It's tough to say she was the best member of the fairer sex that ran this year.

2. My Miss Aurelia. No horse as thoroughly dominated her division as she did. She won all 4 of her starts, including 3 graded stakes and two Grade 1's. She won both G1's with ease, and beat every horse of consequence in her division by a comfortable margin. (We're not counting Stephanie's Kitten, who never tried the dirt.) The only two flaws in her resume are that the race record is a little light--4 starts is hardly a defining campaign--and the fact that she wasn't particularly fast. Maybe she just caught a down year for fillies and had she run against the likes of Sweet Catomine, Halfbridled or Storm Flag Flying, she would have been an also ran. It's enough hesitation to keep us from putting her in the top slot.

1. Havre de Grace. For all the strum und drang over this award, we actually don't expect the vote total to be close, and think she'll take it with relative ease. Before the Breeders Cup, she was the leader in the clubhouse, having only lost once by a nose to her rival Blind Luck, and won her other 5 starts with ease. In those 5 starts, she thumped Flat Out, who won the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and annihilated Royal Delta, who won the BC Distaff. She took on the best, and with the exception of the BC Classic, beat the best.

Had she retired on November 1 with an injury, she would have won the award easily. Since nobody stepped up on Breeders Cup day with a defining performance and she didn't completely embarrass herself in the Classic, she maintained her top spot, and is our Horse of the Year, making it 3 straight years a lady has taken the honors. Congrats to Havre de Grace, and we look forward to another fun campaign from you in 2012.

2011 Eclipse Awards, Part I: The Individual Categories

2011-12-30T10:44:00.000-05:00

Time for our annual retrospective on the year in racing and our Eclipse Awards ballot. First, we'll do a post that solely deals with the individual awards; we'll address the Mess That Is Horse of the Year separately.

2yo fillies

This is one of the easiest ballots to fill out. My Miss Aurelia was a stellar 4-for-4 and beat the very good Grace Hall in the BC Juvenile Fillies. We'll give Grace Hall the edge over JF Turf winner Stephanie's Kitten for the silver medal, solely because of her dirt wins.

1. My Miss Aurelia 2. Grace Hall 3. Stephanie's Kitten

2yo colts

This to us is also one of the easiest ballots to fill out, but we suspect some of the voters will make this more complicated than necessary. Hansen beat Union Rags fair and square in the Juvenile and should be the division winner. Now some will note that Union Rags had a tougher trip and had won 2 graded stakes races before the Juvy. They're right. But it's irrelevant. Union Rags had the entire stretch to get past Hansen, and instead of running in a straight line, veered in and out and cost him any chance of victory. Given that Hansen won his other two starts of the year in convincing fashion, he should be an easy winner here. For the third slot, we'll go with the undefeated winner of the Juvenile Sprint.

1. Hansen 2. Union Rags 3. Secret Circle

3yo fillies

What was a pretty strong crop of fillies that traded a lot of decisions early was decided pretty decisively in the BC Distaff. Royal Delta backed up her win in the Alabama with a strong win in the Distaff, beating both It's Trick and Plum Pretty in the process. That's how the awards line should read too.

1. Royal Delta 2. It's Tricky 3. Plum Pretty

3yo colts

There are a few awards that are a complete and utter mess. This is one of them. Here are the races that were restricted to 3 year olds this year and their respective winners. (Yes, we know they haven't run the Malibu yet. We don't care.)

Florida Derby: Dialed In
Santa Anita Derby: Midnight Interlude
Wood Memorial: Toby's Corner
Arkansas Derby: Archarcharch
Blue Grass: Brilliant Speed
Kentucky Derby: Animal Kingdom
Preakness: Shackleford
Belmont: Ruler on Ice
Haskell: Coil
Secretariat (turf): Treasure Beach
King's Bishop: Caleb's Posse
Travers: Stay Thirsty
Jamaica (turf): Western Aristocrat

Set aside the fact that the 13 races were won by 13 different horses. A whopping eleven of those horses failed to win another race after winning their Grade 1. And of the two horses that did win another race after winning a Grade 1, one of them was Brilliant Speed's fairly uninteresting win in the Grade 3 Saranac.

The only other horse that did anything of note after winning his Grade 1 was Caleb's Posse, who won the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile over elders, and also won the Amsterdam earlier in the year. It's a goofy set of races to use to crown a divisional champ, but it's the best we have. For the other two slots, we'll go with the Derby winner, who was the best 3 year old we saw this year, and Stay Thirsty, who at least won the Jim Dandy before the Travers.

1. Caleb's Posse 2. Animal Kingdom 3. Stay Thirsty

Older Females

Havre de Grace had a great year until the BC Classic; Blind Luck was only slightly behind her. There are a lot of ways you could go for the third slot; we'll choose Awesome Maria, who was, well, awesome before getting hurt.

1. Havre de Grace 2. Blind Luck 3. Awesome Maria

Older Males

Your second messy division. Let's dispense with the horses that were turf phenomenon only, and get down to the six horses that have anything resembling a case.

Drosselmeyer. While he did win the Breeders Cup Classic, he also lost badly to horses named Birdrun, S.S. Stone, and Yummy With Butter, and was 2-for-7 on the year. No thanks.
Flat Out. This guy's record just doesn't stand up. He won the Suburban and Jockey Club Gold Cup in impressive fashion, but did lose six times, including to a bunch of other horses on the list. And we can't give an award to a horse that went 2-for-8.
First Dude. It's been forgotten, but this guy was pretty good earlier this year winning the Alysheba and Hollywood Gold Cup. But that's not enough to take a title.
Game on Dude. The strength of his campaign seems to actually be losing the Breeders Cup Classic. He's got a pair of Grade 1 wins to his name and was pretty honest all year, but man, a 3-for-8 record just isn't that impressive.
Acclamation. After running poorly in the Kilroe and DAFL in the Charles Town Classic, he ripped off 5 straight wins in California both on the turf and on the plastics, including a win in the Pacific Classic. But can you really give the award to a horse that never won on a true dirt surface?
Tizway. After running a pair of thirds in Florida and West Virginia, he won the Met Mile and Whitney (over Flat Out, amongst others), then was laid up for the year. Probably had the two best wins on the year, but it's a short campaign.

So yeah, there are no good answers here. The two best recent examples of a muddled older horse division are 2000, when Lemon Drop Kid won despite only winning one G1 and a few G2's, and 2002, when Left Bank took home the award for winning the best race of the year, the Whitney, then retiring (then passing away, sadly). The best field of the year was probably the Whitney, and we'll give the nod to Tizway based on that.

1. Tizway 2. Acclamation 3. Game on Dude

Female Sprinters

Also a mess. Sassy's Image and Hilde's Passion split decisions while Sassy's Image won the Grade 1 in Calder over Musical Romance, who beat neither of them in the F&M Sprint. Gut instinct, we think Sassy's Image was the best horse to run this year, and we'll give her the nod.

1. Sassy's Image 2. Hilde's Passion 3. Musical Romance

Male Sprinters

Amazombie's double of the Ancient Title and BC Sprint makes him the easy winner here. The second choice should also be easy: Caleb's Posse won the King's Bishop and Dirt Mile, which to us are a hair below the other two races, but still should be enough to garner him a spot on the ballot. For third, let's go with Force Freeze, who won the Teddy Drone and ran good seconds in the Vosburgh and BC Sprint.

1. Amazombie 2. Caleb's Posse 3. Force Freeze

Turf Females

Stacelita's our choice here despite running horrifically in the F&M Turf, where she had an excuse (irritated eye). Prior to that, she won the Flower Bowl and Beverly D with ease, and just fell short against the males in the United Nations. That puts her far ahead of Perfect Shirl, the winner of the F&M Turf who did little else the rest of the year. The other two slots are something of a tossup; we'll go with Nahrain, who ran 2nd in the F&M Turf and won a big race on Arc day in France, and Together, who won a pair of Grade 1's in the autumn.

1. Stacelita 2. Together 3. Nahrain

Turf Males

You can make an argument for BC Turf winner St. Nicholas Abbey or Acclamation here, but we like Cape Blanco, who won three Grade 1's in America this year. There's some question over the quality of his wins versus St. Nicholas Abbey's win in the turf, but we'll take a longer campaign over a single race, especially when St. Nicholas Abbey had a mediocre year in Europe.

1. Cape Blanco 2. St. Nicholas Abbey 3. Acclamation

Trainer

Todd Pletcher's going to get a ton of support for winning 252 races and over $17 million. Our problem with his candidacy is that his signature horse this year is...Stay Thirsty? Blech. Pletcher's odd assortment of horses was never more evident than the Breeders Cup, when he was shut out in all 15 races.

Not shut out was Bill Mott, who guided Royal Delta to a championship and had the unlikely Drosselmeyer spring a huge upset in the Classic. We'll give him the nod up top, over Pletcher and Bob Baffert, who quietly had a very good year.

1. Bill Mott 2. Todd Pletcher 3. Bob Baffert

Jockey

Ramon Dominguez won the most money and the second most races. Good enough for us.

1. Ramon Dominguez 2. John Velazquez 3. Javier Castellano

Owner

It was an odd year as there was no dominant owner. The leading money winner is something called Midwest Thorougbreds, who had no horse that earned over $175,000. Second were the Ramseys, thanks to Stephanie's Kitten and 10 other stakes wins. I guess that's good enough to put them on top? Sure.

1. Ken & Sarah Ramsey 2. Coolmore 3. Mike Repole

Breeders & Apprentice Jockey

Pass. Not our forte.

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Our Horse of the Year post will be up later today.

What the College Football Postseason Should Look Like

2011-12-05T10:42:00.001-05:00

As lads from Massachusetts and New York who attended urban colleges in the Northeast, we're marginal college football fans. But even we know that this year's bowl lineup stinks. There's no reason for an LSU-Alabama rematch--especially when the original game was dull--and some of the other BCS games have zero appeal. I mean, who the hell wants to watch Michigan-Virginia Tech or Clemson-West Virginia?

We like everyone else who does not draw a salary from a bowl committee are pro-playoff. And the solution that we've always felt makes the most sense is very, very simple:

16 team single-elimination playoffs.
Winners of each of the 11 conferences qualifies, plus 5 at-large teams.
The teams are ranked 1-16 by something like the BCS formula, but gerrymandered slightly to avoid rematches until the semifinals and to make sure the top 2 seeds are conference winners.
First two rounds are at home, semifinals and championship are at chosen sites.

We think this solves a lot of problems that the BCS raises. Every team has a shot to qualify. The regular season still means plenty because there are only 5 at-large spots, and besides, you want home games in the first two rounds. And a loss doesn't kill your season, especially if you're a very good team in a non-BCS conference.

What would this have produced this year? Well, let's just say it's a mile better than the Orange Bowl. Here's the seedings.

1. LSU
16. Louisiana Tech

8. Kansas State
9. Wisconsin

5. Arkansas
12. Southern Miss.

4. Stanford
13. West Virginia

3. Alabama
14. Arkansas St.

6. Oregon
11. TCU

7. Boise State
10. Clemson

2. Oklahoma St.
15. No. Illinois

Admit it--this would be a lot of fun. There are four fabulous first round games there--anything after the top 4 seeds would be competitive--and you're staring at some neat matchups in the quarterfinals, like Boise State-Oklahoma State. Gambling on it would be possible. And it would keep college football in everyone's conscious for weeks.

Of course, it has no chance. Pity.

Breeders Cup Preview Part V: The Classic Breakdown

2011-11-04T20:40:00.000-04:00

The bad news: we went one-for-six picking winners on Friday's card. (Well one for five actually--our pick in the Filly Turf, Announce, was a gate scratch.)

The middling-decent news: Other horses we picked ran fairly well. Royal Delta and My Miss Aurelia are horses we picked to run well and won. Switch, our pick in the Sprint, ran second, albeit to a bomb we didn't like.

The great news: We picked the triple in the Juvenile Sprint cold. And it paid $305. Hope you cashed! Let's move on to the Classic, counting the horses down from least to most likely to win.

The Breeders Cup Marathon Was Intended for You

12. Ice Box. Winless since taking the 2010 Florida Derby at 20-1, Nick Zito claims he's entering this horse in the race because "the fans want to see him run." We're still looking for a single person that cares that he's still running, let alone likes him to do anything in this race.

11. Headache. Every year a horse or two enter the Classic that knocked it around in the second- and third-tier races for older horses, like this guy, who won the Cornhusker Handicap and Hawthorne Gold Cup, cementing his win in the Claiming Crown last year. Every year, those horses do absolutely nothing in the Classic.

10. Drosselmeyer. We think we get horse racing most of the time. And then we see how horses like Drosselmeyer are handled, which completely confounds us. Since pulling off a shocker in the 2010 Belmont, this guy has run five times on the dirt (we'll ignore his turf start), and he's won once--by a nose in an ungraded stakes race in mid-May over horses that would be 50-1 in the Classic. He has topped a 91 Gowanus Speed Figure once, in his last race, which we're officially calling into question because it's a complete aberation. He has done nothing to indicate that he's fast enough to run here, and he's indicated that he would like the 14 furlongs of the Marathon. So why are they running him here? And why are they retiring him after this year? Is anyone going to want to breed to a horse that lost 75% of his races and was never particularly fast?

The Wrong Three Year Olds

9. Rattlesnake Bridge. This three year old has some mildly intriguing finishes in the PP line--second in the Travers, third in the Pennsylvania Derby--but is still winless in graded stakes races. There's no reason to think that streak will end on Saturday. Interesting prospect for 2012, though.

8. Stay Thirsty. This guy has run exactly one very good race in his career: his Jim Dandy, which on review, is even less impressive because he beat Moonshine Mullin, who isn't very good, and Dominus, who came back to finish up the track in the Kings Bishop. His Belmont and Travers were good results simply because he showed up; in neither race he did anything spectacular, and was fading badly at the end of the Travers. He did painfully little in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, as he couldn't even beat the execrable Drosselmeyer. And the Pletcher Factor means he'll probably be around 10-1. He's more likely to finish last than first.

7. To Honor and Serve. He's a lot of "wise guys" horse because he seems like he's blooming late in the year, but we're inclined to bet against. He's a need-the-lead horse in a race that has a fair amount of speed (Uncle Mo, Headache and maybe Game On Dude should be prompting the pace). He has yet to win a Grade 1 race, which is the kiss of death for the win slot. And his last two races that produced gaudy GSF's are both questionable: the Saratoga allowance race was an allowance race where he dictated a soft pace and flew home, and the PA Derby was on a track with a pronounced rail bias. While he should like the distance, we think he gets fried early and doesn't have the class to keep up with the real contenders.

Phony Contenders

6. So You Think. Will Aidan O'Brien ever give up? The Aussie import is the latest attempt by the Irish supertrainer to take the Breeders Cup Classic with a horse that's never run on the dirt before. Let's take a look back and see how these efforts have gone in the past.

2000: Giant's Causeway runs second to Tiznow in one of the greatest Breeders Cup races ever. But this wasn't exactly a surprise. Not only had Giant's Causeway had a great year in Europe, he was by prominent dirt sire Storm Cat out of Mariah's Storm, who won 10 races (8 stakes) on the dirt during her career. The surprise was that he was a great turf horse too.
2001: European superstar Galileo flops and runs 6th (at short odds) and Black Minnaloushe runs 10th. Neither had dirt breeding.
2002: That year's European star, Hawk Wing, runs 7th in a race won by a 43-1 shot. Hawk Wing is also bet somewhat strongly (x-1).
2003: Hold That Tiger runs an uninteresting 5th, though we note that he had some decent dirt races before.
2005: Oratorio makes his first start on the dirt and runs a non-threatening 11th.
2006: George Washington's first dirt start is bad, as he runs 6th.
2007: George Washington's second dirt start is worse, as he breaks down and doesn't finish.
2008: We're putting an asterisk next to this year because it was a synthetic surface. Anyway, Duke of Marmalade, his "big horse", runs a poor 9th while Henrythenavigator runs a solid 2nd.
2009: Again, synthetics. Rip Van Winkle is the second choice and runs 10th.

So putting aside the synthetic races--which we think are completely useless in making historical comparisons--the only success O'Brien has had is by a horse regally bred for the dirt. This is backed up by other Euros who have tried to go turf to dirt in the Classic: again, ignoring the synthetics, the only good efforts were Sakhee's second in 2001 and Arcangues 133-1 shocker in 1993. Given that history, do you really want to take 5-1 on the globetrotter that has NO dirt breeding whatsoever?

5. Game on Dude. Quietly, this guy has had a pretty good year: wins in the Santa Anita Handicap and Goodwood (both Grade 1's), a nose loss in the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup, a second place finish in the Charles Town Classic, where he beat Tizway and others, and a third place finish behind Flat Out earlier this year. That said, we're just not bowled over with him. He's not slow but not quite fast, he's been running mostly against a pretty pedestrian group of California horses, and seems to need to be on the lead. He's not a bad use defensively because he'll probably be 15-1 or so, but he's just so...dull.

4. Uncle Mo. Contrary to Andrew Beyer and legions of others, we completely agree that Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher are doing the right thing by running Uncle Mo in this Classic. If he won the Dirt Mile, so what? Does anyone care about Albertus Maximus, Furthest Land or Dakota Phone? If you want the glory and want to be remembered, run in the big race, not a 3rd-tier Breeders Cup race.

Of course, this doesn't mean we think he can win. This horse probably has the most latent talent of anyone in the field, but he's being asked to do a lot here. He's never won at a distance over a mile and a sixteenth, and comes in with his prep races being the 7 furlong Kings Bishop and 1-mile Kelso. While he ran very well in both, it's still a subpar campaign for the Breeders Cup. It reminds us of Fusaichi Pegasus' attempt to get ready for the Classic by running in the 1-mile Jerome. He ran 7th.

To make matters more difficult, he's a speed horse that drew the outside post, meaning he'll be on the lead. We're not going to say it's impossible for a horse to wire the field in the Classic, but the last two horses to do it were Tiznow and Ghostzapper, two Hall of Fame talents, the latter of which drew a fairly paceless race. If you think Uncle Mo is that level of great, we encourage you to bet him. At 3-1, we're looking elsewhere.

Actual Contenders

3. Ruler on Ice. The definition of value in wagering is when you are getting odds that are higher than the likelihood of an event happening. For example, if you think a horse has a 10% chance to win a race, his true odds are 9-1, and anything higher is value. It becomes a little trickier when you're talking about exactas and triples, because you don't know a horse's odds in those pools, but again, if you see a horse that's 20-1 that you think is about 20% to hit the board, you should use him.

Well, we see value in Ruler on Ice. He's 30-1 on the morning line and we think his odds will be somewhere around there come post time, which is fine, because his chances of winning are certainly better than 3%, and his chances of finishing in the money are much, much higher than that. Everyone sees him as a one-race fluke in the Belmont. Not us. His next three races are more interesting than they appear:

Haskell--he ends up on a pretty dead rail and has a trip where he's jostled around a lot, yet finishes strongly, only to fall short. It's probably the best race he's run, including his Belmont win.
Travers--he sits close to a fairly contentious pace and has nothing left for the stretch. Jose Valdivia did not give him a fabulous ride, and unsurprisingly, he's fired for Garrett Gomez.
Pennsylvania Derby--Gomez decides to change tactics and make him a dead closer, which works somewhat, as he rallies stoutly for a good second. The problem with this strategy was that he did it on a track with a blatant speed bias.

In sum, we have a horse that's been up against it pace-, bias- and trip-wise three straight races. He's bred for the distance, has one of the best jockeys in the irons, figures to get a good pace to run at, and is training beautifully. Is he the most likely win candidate? No, and we're picking him 3rd for a reason. But we do think he's the value play of the race and will be flying late to complete some fat mutuels.

2. Havre de Grace. There's no reason to not admire the filly, as she's put together a very good campaign and has already beaten two of the top older males in the country this year. We wouldn't be surprised at all if she won, and would be surprised if she ran out of the superfecta. So why not pick her to win? We're not sure the mile and a quarter is her optimal distance and are worried that her campaign is going to take a toll on her. It's rare for a filly to be able to sustain brilliance in a long campaign; note that Zenyatta generally ran 5-6 races a year, almost all against fillies. HDG has had three pretty strong races in a row, and we think she's due for a minor regression. Which would still put her in the money, but not in the winner's circle.

The Pick

1. Flat Out. He's much better than people give him credit for. He started out the year in Texas, running a game second at a mile and a sixteenth, a distance shorter than his best. He shipped to the Stephen Foster, where he ran sixth, but lost by under 3 lengths and was trapped along a dead rail the entire way. Those who knew that he was on a dead rail were smart to have him at 13-1 in the Suburban, where he smashed the field by 6 lengths and posted a 113 GSF. It's the most impressive performance by an older horse this year.

Since the Suburban win he's done well but been somewhat anonymous. He ran a good second in the Whitney to Tizway, who had a perfect trip, and more importantly, isn't running in the Classic (injury). He ran second in the Woodward to Havre de Grace, who got first run on him and we think the tables would have been turned over another furlong. Then he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup in solid fashion, looking like the best horse from about the midpoint of the race. To top it off, he's training beautifully and we know he'll love a mile and a quarter.

He's not a flashy horse, and his record isn't gaudy: if he wins, he'll finish the year 3-for-7 and may not get Horse of the Year. But that's not the question. The question is who will be the fastest to run 10 furlongs on Saturday evening. And we're pretty sure he's the answer, and will be a relatively square price (~9-2). Here's your winner and, at least, older male of the year.

Good luck to all and enjoy the race!

2011 Breeders Cup Preview Part IV: Saturday's Races

2011-11-03T23:28:00.000-04:00

Let's jump right into Saturday's card, which starts out a little goofy, then yields a bunch of fascinating races. We'll do the Classic separately in another post.

Marathon

Synopsis: 1 3/4 miles on the dirt for all comers, Grade 2 worth $500,000. Not only is this everyone's least favorite race because it involves lesser horses, it also tends to be long and boring.

Favorite: The fave is either going to be a horse that hasn't finished in the money yet this year and was a well-beaten fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in his last (A.U. Miner) or a horse that won a Grade 1 earlier this year, then lost 6 straight by widening margins (Giant Oak). See why nobody wants this race on championship day?

Price Horse to Consider: He's not really bred for the dirt, but Irish shipper Harrison's Cave is bred to go a long distance and is coming in off a win.

Picks: Birdrun seems to like going long as is somewhat consistently passable. Why not pick him?

1. Birdrun 2. Eldaafer 3. Giant Oak

Juvenile Turf

Synopsis: 1 mile on the grass for 2yo colts, Grade 2 worth $1 million. We usually like this race because it's an interesting blend of Euros and Americans; somewhat surprisingly, the home team has done well here.

Favorite: It's unclear to us who will be the favorite, actually. We would guess Finale, who's undefeated on the turf, has the Pletcher/Velazquez combo, and has decent breeding. Just to his outside in the 14 post is State of Play, who won the With Anticipation stakes at Saratoga this summer and goes out for Graham Motion of Animal Kingdom fame. Also likely to get a lot of play is Majestic City, who was the runner up in the Breeders Futurity over a synthetic surface, and many (including us) believe that success of synthetics translates well to turf.

Price Horses to Consider: There are a bunch, actually. Wrote is a well-bred Aidan O'Brien horse that ran a decent third in his last, and while he's a second-level horse in Ireland, that may be enough here. But the 12-1 morning line might be unrealistic. On breeding alone, Fantastic Song is an intriguing candidate, as his dam is a half sister to the fabulous Shakespeare and solid performers Lady Shakespeare and Perfect Shirl (who's running on Friday in the Filly and Mare Turf). Needs to run faster, though.

Picks: This has all the looks of a spread race, and we wouldn't be surprised by about 8 different winners. We'll go with Lucky Chappy, who ran well in his American debut for Graham Motion, and use our price plays underneath.

1. Lucky Chappy 2. Wrote 3. Fantastic Song

Sprint

Synopsis: 6 furlongs on the dirt for all comers, Grade 1 worth $1.5 million. Yes, that's right--they reduced the purse of this race by $500,000 to fund the Juvenile Sprint. Why do the powers that be hate the Sprint, which used to be one of our two favorite races (with the Mile)? For fun, let's look at the probable field with guesses at a morning line that we'd have in the Sprint if they had never created the Dirt Mile or Filly Sprint (listed alphabetically):

Amazombie, 5-1
Aikenite, 30-1
Apriority, 30-1
Big Drama, 5-1
Caleb's Posse, 10-1
Euroears, 6-1
Force Freeze, 15-1
Giant Ryan, 15-1
Jackson Bend, 7-2
Jersey Town, 20-1
Switch, 15-1
The Factor, 9-2
Trappe Shot, 5-1
Turbulent Descent, 4-1

That would be one of the best races all year, no? Alas.

Favorites: Big Drama won this race last year and then came back to win the Mr. Prospector stakes in January, running a year-best 120 GSF. Since then he's done...well, nothing of note, having some health issues, winning a minor stakes race in Florida in a pedestrian time, and scratching out of the Vosburgh with health issues. We're against him. The likely second choice is Jackson Bend, who's in career form, but in races at 7 furlongs and a mile. If we've learned nothing else about the Sprint, it's to go with distance specialists.

Price Horse to Consider: Force Freeze has done little wrong since being repatriated this summer, winning the Teddy Drone on the lead and running a decent second in the Vosburgh. He's working out quite well and figures to be around 10-1.

Picks: There are three clear distance specialists in the race. Giant Ryan has won 6 in a row, but he beat nothing of note until the Vosburgh, which fell into his lap when the top two choices had absurd traffic trouble. Amazombie is in career form and can't be dismissed. But we like Euroears the best; he beat Amazombie two back, is 8-for-13 at the distance, is probably the fastest out of hte gate, and had an easy excuse for his last race, as he was annihilated at the start. We also like the fact that his trainer, Bob Baffert, took his other prime contender for the Sprint (The Factor) and pointed him for the Dirt Mile because he's also a front-runner, to us, this means Baffert thinks Euroears is sitting on a big race and he didn't want to duel him into the ground. Look for him to wire the field.

1. Euroears 2. Amazombie 3. Jackson Bend

Turf Sprint

Synopsis: 5 furlongs on the turf for everyone, Grade 2 worth $1 million. We kvetch about this race a lot, but we picked the winner last year (Chamberlain Bridge) and cashed on Desert Code at 36-1 three years ago, so maybe we should shut up.

Favorite: It's either going to be Caracortado, who's found a second home on the turf but has never run this distance, or Regally Ready, who won the Nearctic Stakes last out and is 5-for-8 on the year.

Price Horse to Consider: At his morning line price of 20-1, Country Day is a steal. He's been in the money 5 of 6 times at the distance and is in good form for good connections.

Picks: We're going to go with all price horses, as this race looks wide open to us and a "spread" opportunity. In addition to Country Day, we like Broken Dreams, who's fast enough and gets Garret Gomez. We'll also take a shot underneath with Camp Victory, who's actually fast enough to compete in the Sprint, but is entered here instead.

1. Broken Dreams 2. Country Day 3. Camp Victory

Dirt Mile

Synopsis: One mile on the dirt for all comers, Grade 1 worth $1 million. The last two editions were won by longshots Furthest Land (21-1) and Dakota Phone (37-1), meaning we still haven't quite figured this race out yet.

Favorite: Trappe Shot is the morning line favorite (3-1) who we don't think will actually be favored. This is fine with us because we actually like this guy a lot. He's run the two fastest GSF's in the race this year, shouldn't mind stretching out to a flat mile from 6 furlongs, and has an easy excuse for his last. Heck, if he came in off a layoff, he would probably be 7-5.

Horses We Don't Like: Thankfully, the next three choices on the morning line are all tosses as far as we're concerned. As we noted above, we think Baffert separated Euroears and The Factor to make sure the former had a cleaner trip on the front end in the Sprint, but this looks like a tough spot for The Factor to stretch out his speed two more furlongs, especially with some tough speed also in the race. Shackleford has lost 7 of his last 8 races, with his only win being his Preakness victory that we still can't understand. We like turnbacks, but think his form stinks. Wilburn is curiously low on the morning line (4-1) for a horse that's only run a triple digit GSF once, and at that, in a race where he had everything go his way around two turns. He's not a complete toss, but he's a severe underlay at that price, and we think there's a chance he's the favorite.

Price Horse to Consider: Why is everyone ignoring Jersey Town? Off a 9-month layoff, he ran a decent second at a distance he doesn't love (6 furlongs) to Force Freeze, who's not bad. His next race, while he was still rounding into form, he ran a strong second to Jackson Bend, who would be 2-1 in this race. They stretched him out to a mile in the Kelso--the same distance as his big victory in last year's Cigar Mile--where he ran over a muddy track he may not have liked and got into a suicidal speed duel with Uncle Mo. Guess what? Uncle Mo isn't in this race. 15-1 on this horse is a steal.

Picks: Whether or not it was according to plan, Caleb's Posse has developed into a great closing sprinter, with a good win in the Amsterdam and a fabulous win over Uncle Mo in the King's Bishop. His Indiana Derby is a complete toss--we're not even sure why he ran in it--as it was two turns at a longer distance. Look for him to sit off a furious pace and come flying late, passing everyone.

1. Caleb's Posse 2. Trappe Shot 3. Jersey Town

Turf

Synopsis: 1 1/2 miles on the turf for all comers, Grade 1 worth $3 million. While 11 of the last 13 winners (including the 2003 dead heat) have been Europeans, American horses have held their own in the 2nd and 3rd slots: the only time the Euros have swept the triple in that span was 2005. There's an excellent chance that happens again this year, as it's a strong crop of Euros against some bad Americans.

Favorite:While ten horses have won multiple Breeders Cup races, Zenyatta is the only one to have won different Breeders Cup races. Midday is attempting to become the second one, and she won the 2009 Filly and Mare Turf, and seeing a weak crop this year in the $3 million Turf, opted to run against the boys. She's had a pretty solid year with 2 wins and 5 placings in Grade 1's and 2's, mostly against the boys.

Price Horses to Consider: Blech. The only horse over 8-1 on the morning line we'd even consider is Brilliant Speed, because at least he's young. But he's really up against it here.

Picks: To be boring, we think the race comes down to the five Euros, but it's tough to pick among them. We'll try anyway. Sea Moon is young and with upside, but doesn't quite class up with the rest of the horses in the field, and it's tough to imagine all 4 of the remaining Euros throwing in clunkers. Await the Dawn is possibly the most talented horse, but has had myriad health issues and we can't endorse picking an entrant at less than full strength. We'll side with O'Brien's other entry, St. Nicholas Abbey, who exits a solid showing in the Arc and has success in American-style turf races (they run the other direction in Europe). Sarafina, who was the beaten favorite in the Arc, can't be dismissed and should be used in all wagers.

1. St. Nicholas Abbey 2. Sarafina 3. Midday

Juvenile

Synopsis: 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2yo colts, Grade 1 worth $2 million. In the last 7 runnings, the winners have come from California (2), New York (2), Europe (2) and Kentucky (1). That's balance.

Favorite: Union Rags is 3-for-3, sports the best speed figures and has a versatile running style. About the only negative is his lack of two-turn racing experience. He figures to be one of the strongest favorites on Saturday's card.

Price Horses to Consider: While Union Rags looks tough, we do think there are a lot of fun horses to consider here as well, either as a bomb winner or underneath. European importer Crusade pulled off an upset in his last race and is beautifully bred for the dirt, albeit at sprint distances (Mr. Greeley by La Traviata, who was a multiple graded stakes winning sprinting filly). Alpha couldn't have looked better in his debut, and while he was beaten pretty handily by Union Rags in his last, he does have a right to take a huge step forward in his 3rd career start. For a complete bomb, Take Charge Indy is well bred for the dirt (dam Take Charge Lady was an Eclipse finalist in 2002) and is switching to the dirt and is eligible to move forward.

Picks: His race record is a little lighter than Johannesburg's, but Crusade's breeding is as good for the dirt. We'll take him to post the upset.

1. Crusade 2. Union Rags 3. Take Charge Indy

Mile

Synopsis: 1 mile on the turf for all comers, Grade 1 worth $2 million. Historically, you either want to go for a favorite or a double-digits odds horse, this is not the place to try to get horses at 9-2 in the win slot.

Favorite: The incomparable Goldikova goes for her fourth straight Mile and 15th Grade 1 win. There's really nothing more to say.

Price Horses to Consider: He won't be anywhere near his 12-1 moring line odds, but Byword is a must-use underneath and possibly as an upset pick. Trainer Andre Fabre is one of the best in shipping for the Breeders Cup, and while this guy has been running in slightly cheaper races, he does sport a 4/3-1-0 record at a mile, very similarly to 2002 winner Domedriver. American-based Jeranimo has had an underappreciated year on the turf in California and enters in career form. He's very interesting at 20-1.

Picks: We stupidly went against Goldikova last year. We're not going to make that mistake again. Even if she's slowed down a hair, who's going to beat her?

1. Goldikova 2. Gio Ponti 3. Byword

Coming up later today: Our Classic breakdown.

2011 Breeders Cup Preview Part III: Friday's Races

2011-11-02T23:04:00.000-04:00

One of the great things about the Breeders Cup is that you don't have to be right too many times to make money.

Last year, we picked all 14 races on this blog and came up with 3 winners. Now we will admit that 21.4% is not a great winning percentage, and that some of our picks (Court Vision over Goldikova? Rogue Romance over Uncle Mo? Quiet Oasis?) left a lot to be desired. But, not to toot our horn, it was a profitable day for us. Why?

For starters, when you get to the Breeders Cup, you get fat mutuels on horses who often should be shorter prices, simply because of the quality of the field. Our first winner, Big Drama (Sprint) was 5-1 and $12.40 was generous on a horse that should have been the favorite. Ditto for Chamberlain Bridge (Turf Sprint) at almost 7-1. And Blame (Classic) at 5-1 was a steal. Simply betting $2 to win on all of the winners we picked would have returned $40.60, a $12.60 profit and 45% return on investment. And that's just from picking three winners while (stupidly) tossing obvious favorites Uncle Mo and Goldikova.

But the real way to make money on Breeders Cup weekend is to leverage these opinions in the exotics. The Classic provided several opportunities for this:

Blame and Zenyatta looked like they were much better than the rest of the field and an easy exacta play. The exacta paid $33.60--15-1 odds, or better than 7-1 if you did a straight box.
Fly Down was a perfectly obvious contender to clunk up for third, the same way that he did in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The triple with him paid $465.
Leveraging Blame into multi-race bets was also pretty profitable. Dangerous Midge had all the looks of an interesting contender in the Turf; leveraging that opinion with Blame led to a $95 double. If you were really open minded and thought that the Dirt Mile was wide open, you may have thought that Dakota Phone had a shot as a turnbacker. Linking him with Dangerous Midge and Blame--again, two horses that were not hard to come up with--returned almost $5700 for the Pick Four.

The point isn't to brag. The point is that if you have an opinion on Breeders Cup weekend, use it to your advantage. If a favorite looks shaky and there's no obvious next answer, spread and play some doubles or pick threes. Assume that exactas and trifectas are going to pay better than usual. And thankfully, this is all easier now because there are 50-cent minimums for triples, pick 3s and pick 4s and $1 minimums for exactas and doubles. Use it to your advantage.

With that prelude in mind, let's look at Friday's card. Like last year, we'll set the stage for the race conditions, discuss the favorites, some longshots of interest, and pick the top three finishers. For all predictions, we're assuming the track is fast and the turf is firm.

Juvenile Sprint

Synopsis: 6 furlongs on the dirt for 2 year-olds, ungraded stakes, worth $500,000. This is the newest addition to the Breeders Cup card, and in theory, we like the race. Unfortunately, it's drawn a pretty bland field.

Favorite: It may not take long to find the heaviest favorite on the weekend, as Bob Baffert's charge Secret Circle is 6-5 on the morning line and figures to be shorter than that. And with reason: he's two-for-two in his career, won his starts by a combined 12 1/2 lengths, is well-bred, and is training well. The only negative is that he's never run outside of California. Whatever. He looks legit.

Horses We Don't Like: What saves this race is that the next two choices look suspect. Seeker freaked in the slop two races back at Saratoga and bombed in his next at Belmont. We see no reason to prefer him over longer priced horses. Vexor was basically eased in the Hopeful for trainer Jack Kimmel, then pulled off an upset at 18-1 in the Nashua, a race where nobody was flying late. He strikes us as a money burner.

Price Horses to Consider: Holdin Bullets sports one of the weirder running lines you'll ever see--he's made one race, and it was in April at 4 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland. We can't think of a time that a two year old came into the Breeders Cup off a six-month layoff. Still, trained by Wesley Ward, he's working out well and may be fresh and ready to go. Shumoos ships in from Europe but has great dirt breeding and a good foundation (6 races)--history has shown that the European 2yos with a lot of races under their belt do better in the Breeders Cup.

Picks: We're not going to try to beat Secret Circle, who looks like a strong favorite. But we'll go with our bombs underneath and hope to get a pricey exotic payoff.

1. Secret Circle 2. Shumoos 3. Holdin Bullets.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Synopsis: 1 mile on the turf for 2yo fillies, Grade 2 for $1 million. We can't believe this race still exists and that the purse is still a million bucks. Favorites have not done well in this race, as Maram, Tapitsfly and More Than Real were all square prices. Notably, each of those horses has been patently mediocre in their subsequent seasons.

Favorite: The Euros haven't done as well as one would expect in this race, but they've also never sent over a horse as accomplished as this year's favorite, Elusive Kate. The John Gosden filly is 4-for-5 in her career with a win in a Grade 1 on the Arc undercard. Nobody else in the field has run in a race remotely as good as that one.

Price Horse to Consider: Ann of the Dance has only run on synthetics in her career, but is well-bred for the turf (2006 Turf winner English Channel by a Winning mare) and is switching to Marty Wolfson, a positive-expectation move. She's very intriguing at 30-1.

Picks: Two races, two favorites for us. How dull. Let's spice it up by also picking Royal Bonnie to hit the board, who was trying to close late on a soft track when she had some traffic trouble, and is eligible to move forward.

1. Elusive Kate 2. Ann of the Dance 3. Royal Bonnie

Filly and Mare Sprint

Synopsis: 7 furlongs on the dirt for 3yo+ fillies and mare, Grade 1 for $1 million. Speed horses have not been the way to go here: Maryfield, Ventura, Informed Decision and Dubai Majesty were all stalkers or closers.

Favorite: Turbulent Descent will be another strong favorite--don't worry, we'll get to horses that won't be 7-5 or lower soon--based on her perfect record at the distance. Color us unimpressed. Two of those starts were on a synthetic surface, and the third was against a pedestrian field in the Test. She hasn't run in almost three months, has never faced elders, and isn't all that fast. Also, her trainer, Mike Puype, pronounces his last name "poopy."

Price Horse to Consider: We're very intrigued by Brazilian import Great Hot. She ran a good third to Zazu and Ultra Blend in the Lady's Secret, then closed like a shot to take the Raven Run at Keeneland in her last, meaning she's in good form and should like the distance. Having only made seven starts, she has a right to improve, and while we doubt you'll get her morning line odds (20-1), she will be a fair price.

Picks: For the second straight year, we're going with Switch, even though she'll be half the price she was last year. Her connections have been pointing her to this race all year and she's been a solid performer: only one win but never out of the money, and closing fast in her last start at 6 furlongs. We think she loves the distance--her last 3 starts at 7 furlongs have been win-win-second--and closes into a fairly solid pace. We'll keep Turbulent Descent in the money because we're not nuts.

1. Switch 2. Great Hot 3. Turbulent Descent

Juvenile Fillies

Synopsis:1 1/16 miles for 2yo fillies, Grade 1 for $2 million. We've said it before but this is usually one of the most boring races on the card, as a true bomb (over 10-1) hasn't won this since Caressing in 2000.

Favorites: There's a few horses that could be favored here, all of them deservedly so. My Miss Aurelia has done nothing wrong on the East Coast and looked fabulous winning the Frizette at Belmont in her last. Weemissfrankie has looked spectacular on the West Coast and looks fast enough to compete with the best here. Grace Hall oddly shipped to Delaware for her prep race, but now has two-turn experience and is very dangerous.

Price Horse to Consider: Questing is a Euro import that's made some impact on the turf but is beautifully bred for the dirt (Haskell winner Hard Spun out of a Seeking the Gold mare). By the way, you know your blog is old when horses you discussed in the Kentucky Derby are now mentioned as sires.

Picks: We really liked Grace Hall's win in the Spinaway, and think the Delaware prep was a smart idea, as it got a two-turn race in her. We think she sits off a fairly honest pace and has more in the stretch than My Miss Aurelia.

1. Grace Hall 2. Questing 3. My Miss Aurelia

Filly and Mare Turf

Synopsis: 1 3/8 miles on the turf for the ladies, Grade 1 for $2 million. Five horses that won races last year are back to try again this year. Four are running on Saturday and have a good chance: Uncle Mo, Goldikova, Chamberlain Bridge and Big Drama. The fifth is Shared Account, who upset this race at 46-1 last year and figures to be a similar price this year.

Favorite: With Sarafina and Midday opting to run in the Turf on Saturday, Stacelita is the legitimate favorite. She won the Flower Bowl and Beverly D in convincing fashion and was an excellent 3rd in the United Nations against the boys. Had she won that race, she would be a quiet contender for Horse of the Year.

Price Horse to Consider: With Stacelita, three tough Euros, the underrated Dubawi Legacy and consistent Aruna in this race, it's tough to find a double-digit horse to really like. Hmmm. For underneath, how about Harmonious, who has a good closing kick, ran sneaky-well in the Yellow Ribbon last out, and should be about 30-1?

Picks: As mentioned, this race is deep and tough, even without two horses that would be the favorite. Even though she lost her last race to Nahrain, we'll go with Announce, who's had a solid, classy campaign in Europe, having lost to Cirrus des Aigles and Sarafina, either of which would be 2-1 here. Stacelita is a must use, as she's never run a poor race. Misty for Me is likely to go to the front here and battle with Dubawi Heights and others, and we don't love Aruna at the distance here, so we'll take Nahrain to round out an all-Euro triple.

1. Announce 2. Stacelita 3. Nahrain

Ladies Classic (nee Distaff)

Synopsis: 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, Grade 1, $2 million. This race has been beat up a bit this year, as Havre de Grace is running on Saturday, older fillies Blind Luck, Awesome Maria and Unrivaled Belle are all hurt, and Zazu was a late scratch as well. It leaves us with the pro tem 3yo leaders and some random older horses; an interesting betting affair, but not the deepest field ever.

Favorites: Plum Pretty is the probable fave off her wins in the Kentucky Oaks and Cotillion and to us is a great bet-against. She's a need-the-lead type who rode a rail bias in her last, and before that, looked like she was going backwards. The probable second choice is It's Tricky, who she beat in the Cotillion, and we've never been a huge fan of.

Price Horse to Consider: Ultra Blend hasn't finished out of the money in two years and just missed in her last against Zazu, who would have been our pick here. She's likely to be forgotten in wagering and offers good value at 10-1, especially when nobody else is towering over the field figure wise. But our real value play is...

Picks: ...a horse we've liked in this spot for a while, Miss Match. The Argentinian bred filly has had an interesting campaign, as she's taken on males multiple times without real success but with good efforts--her 4th in the Goodwood was pretty solid, and the competition was a lot stronger than anything she'll be facing on Friday. She already has a Grade 1 win at the distance this year, and is going to get a fast pace to run at. We think she'll be flying late, and if we're lucky, she'll be double-digit odds. In the triple we'll include the previously discussed Ultra Blend and Royal Delta, who may be in better form than her last race in the slop indicated.

1. Miss Match 2. Royal Delta 3. Ultra Blend

Saturday's picks should be up on Friday morning. Good luck to all!

2011 Breeders Cup Preview Part II: Fixing the Race Schedule

2011-10-27T16:41:00.004-04:00

The Breeders Cup schedule is an utter mess. I'm not talking about the prep races--that's a whole other series of posts--I mean the Friday and Saturday cards. To illustrate, let's go through a little history of what races were in the Breeders Cup and how they were organized.

1984: Creation. The Breeders Cup is launched with 7 races: the Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies, Mile, Sprint, Distaff, Turf and Classic. The order of races changes occasionally--sometimes the Distaff was first, sometimes the Juvenile Fillies--but the Turf and Classic are always the last two races. Six of the seven races correspond with Eclipse Awards for specific divisions, and the seventh (the Mile) is a race designed in part to appeal to Europeans and in part to have a second turf race on the card.

1999: First Expansion. For reasons unclear, the initial Breeders Cup included races that would settle every Eclipse division except female turf horses. This was solved by introducing the Filly & Mare Turf and making the Breeders Cup an 8-race card. Despite the awkward name and the fact that there's no set distance for the race (sometimes it's a mile and a quarter, sometimes a mile and three-eighths), the race has been a tremendous success, producing some memorable champions (Ouija Board, Banks Hill, Soaring Softly) and some enjoyable upsets (Lahudood, Starine, Shared Account).

2007: The Two-Day Event. The one-day card goes by the wayside in 2007, as the Breeders Cup introduces three new races. The Filly Sprint comes on to handle the new Eclipse Award for female sprinters; while we're not in favor of this race, most are, and it assumes a good spot on the card. The Dirt Mile was on a lot of people's short list for races for years, and it finally comes to fruition in '07. And the Juvenile Turf adds a 1 mile race for 2yos on the grass, partially to stimulate grass breeding and racing in the US, and partially to appease the Euros.

To make the day work, the Breeders Cup inserts the three new races on to the Friday card. This not only a perfectly sensible move, it's in keeping with prior years, as in most prior years, the Breeders Cup put together a fun card on Friday for horses that weren't good enough to compete on the grand stage. The new races seem in keeping with that. Until we get...

2008: The Reconfiguration. The Breeders Cup doubles down on expansion by adding another three races that are a bit more dubious in their nature. They add the Marathon in an effort to promote distance racing, first at the 12 furlong distance, which is later expanded to 14 furlongs. The girls get their own 2yo grass race in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. And a Turf Sprint is added.

The equally large development, however, is how these races are added to the card. Most pundits thought immediately that they'd simply add the new three races to Friday's card and leave Saturday intact. Instead, the Breeders Cup had another idea: Filly Friday. All the races involving the fairer sex are moved to Friday, including the Juvenile Fillies, Distaff (now stupidly renamed the "Ladies Classic") and the F&M Turf, while all the new "male races" (Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile, Juvenile Turf, Marathon) are slotted on Saturday. We'll discuss below why this has been a disaster, but first let's note the final steps:

2009 - 2011: Tinkering. Filly Friday has remained more or less intact, with some additions. In '09 and '10, the Marathon was moved to Friday to start the card, while this year, a 15th race (the Juvenile Sprint--a concept we advocated 3 years ago) leads off the Friday card. In sum this leads to the following lineups for Breeders Cup weekend:

Friday: Juvenile Sprint, JF Turf, F&M Sprint, Juvenile Fillies, F&M Turf, Distaff

Saturday: Marathon, Juv. Turf, Sprint, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile, Turf, Juvenile, Mile, Classic.

* * *

We are not fans of the current configuration, whether or not it's called Filly Friday. Why? Glad you asked.

1. It's a misnomer. For the last 3 years, there have been non-filly races on the Friday. (Okay, this is not really a big deal.)

2. It divides up the great races. Part of the fun of Breeders Cup Saturday was seeing the best horses on the same card. By commingling the minor races with the big races, we get two decent days of racing instead of one great one with a fun warmup day. Now, neither seems as special.

3. The best fillies don't run on Friday.

Let's reiterate this point: the idea of giving the ladies their own day has completely backfired because the best fillies have run in the Saturday races pretty much every year. For example:

2008: Zenyatta wins the Distaff on Friday, but international superstar Goldikova wins the Mile on Saturday.

2009: Zenyatta and Goldikova win the Classic and Mile...on Saturday.

2010: The three best fillies to run that weekend, Zenyatta, Goldikova and Proviso, run in the Classic and Mile on Saturday.

We're about to see more of the same in 2011. Goldikova is back for a run at the boys in the Mile. Havre de Grace is going to run in the Classic. Even the Filly and Mare Turf is going to get hit this year: European shippers Midday and Sarafina are going to run in the Turf on Saturday. In sum, almost every filly of note will be running on Saturday, making the "Filly Friday" designation completely meaningless, and making the division of the races look arbitrary.

* * *

What to do? Easy: re-configure the races. Let's put aside for now the ideas of disbanding the Juvenile Fillies Turf, adding a 16th race (which we advocated a few years ago--namely, a mile on turf for older fillies) or renaming the races, and just work with the 15 races as currently constituted. We see three ways to do this, with the sidenote that the order of races on a particular day should not be set in stone.

1. The Classic Format. There have been 7 new races added since 2007. Let's put them all on Friday, and make them the warmup for Saturday's classic championship card. That would mean:

Friday: Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile Sprint, Turf Sprint, Filly Sprint, Juvenile Turf, Dirt Mile

Saturday: Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile, Filly and Mare Turf, Sprint, Mile, Distaff, Turf Classic.

Advantage: The most logical solution, as it keeps the "old" races together on Saturday and gives the new ones their own date.

Disadvantage: Friday is marginalized in the mainstream media by being truly niche races.

2. Championship Saturday. Eight of the Breeders Cup races directly correspond to Eclipse Awards. How about we just divide the races that way?

Friday: Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile Sprint, Turf Sprint, Juvenile Turf, Dirt Mile, Mile

Saturday: Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile, Fillly Sprint, Sprint, Filly and Mare Turf, Turf, Distaff, Classic

Advantage: Saturday is truly "US/World Championship day" as most of the winners will take Eclipse Awards at the end of the day. This should be the easiest storyline for the mass media to promote.

Disadvantage: Only two turf races on Saturday.

3. Juvenile Friday. If we want to give a discreet group of horses Friday, let's give it to the horses that can't bleed over into other races : the two year olds. Friday's card could be billed as the "Stars of Tomorrow", which is a lot more interesting than focusing on a horse's gender. It would give the press a chance to give the Juvenile its due--rather than relegating it to a background story on the same day as the Classic--and start hyping the Kentucky Derby. It may even give the Juvenile Fillies winner some actual press. And from a selfish perspective, it would get some of the traditionally chalkiest races off of Saturday's card.

It wouldn't be completely perfect because we know the BC wants six races on Friday's card so it can have an all-stakes Pick Six. Fine. Let's move the least important race to Friday, making the lineups:

Friday: Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile Sprint, Juvnile Fillies, Juvenile Turf, Juvenile.

Saturday: Filly Sprint, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile, Filly and Mare Turf, Sprint, Mile, Distaff, Turf, Classic.

We initially went into this post thinking we'd want the first option--simple reversion, but have to admit the last card is what we like best. The lineup for Saturday includes 6 of the original 8 races, adds in the Filly Sprint--a championship race in its own right--plus the two new races that have been the most chaotic. It would be a great betting card.

So Breeders Cup, take heed. Any of the three suggestions above work better than the current slate of races. We hope to see a new schedule at Santa Anita next year.

2011 Breeders Cup Preview Part I: The Year in Racing to Date

2011-10-16T11:06:00.000-04:00


Churchill Downs, home of the 2011 Breeders Cup

For all the kvetching about racing getting no attention and the sport having no stars, recent years have seen a lot of memorable horses and dominant story lines, many of which have crossed into the mainstream. Let's take a look back at the last 8 years at what were racing's memes:

2003: Empire Maker gets a ton of hype and buildup for the Derby as the Super Horse, but it's Funny Cide that emerges and becomes the People's Horse.

2004: Smarty Jones' three year old campaign lands him on the cover of SI. If you're a little more interested in racing, you know that this is the year Ghostzapper ran lights out and establsihed himself as one of the best horses in the last 25 years.

2005: Afleet Alex and Alex's Lemonade Stand.

2006: Barbaro, Barbaro, Barbaro....

2007: In hindsight, there was no dominant horse or story line this year. This was a stellar crop of three year olds (Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Discreet Cat), and Lawyer Ron turned out to be a good older horse, but nobody really dominated the scene. Rags to Riches' Belmont was a deal, but for about 2 days.

2008: Big Brown, Curlin, Zenyatta's emergence, and (sadly) Eight Belles.

2009: Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.

2010: Zenyatta.

So now 2011 rolls around and the dominant story line is....well, not much. It's been a fairly benign year in racing, mainly because the horses have been so inconsistent. To wit:

Three different horses won the Triple Crown races, and as we noted in June, this was the second most unpredictable TC series in the last 50 years.

No three year old has won more than one Grade 1 race all year. Last year Lookin at Lucky was the champion 2 year old and won the Preakness and Haskell, so you knew he was at least a nice enough horse. The best 3yo this year has been... I dunno, Stay Thirsty?

The older male horses have been equally uninteresting. The leader in the clubhouse for the Older Male Eclipse is Tizway based on winning the Met Mile and Whitney, which were on Memorial Day and the first week of August. You're not going to build any momentum on two wins in 5 months. Next in line is Flat Out, who's lost to Tizway and a filly. California has produced absolutely no horses of interest. The most consistent male performers have been Acclamation and Cape Blanco, who (a) ran on the turf, and (b) are now injured.

The three year old filly crop has been replete with decent horses who keep beating each other. All of Plum Pretty, It's Tricky, Zazu and Royal Delta appear to be nice horses, but none is a standout.

The two horses that would have had some cache from last year's Breeders Cup, Goldikova and Uncle Mo, have had years out of the limelight. Goldikova's absence from US racing isn't surprising--she's a European filly after all, and she's had a decent year, just far removed from US racing. It's Uncle Mo whose absence has been felt. He won an ungraded stakes race in Florida in March, lost the Wood Memorial when stopping badly, and missed the Derby with an alleged illness. He re-emerged in a sprint race on the Travers undercard, where he lost by a nostril to the not-bad Caleb's Posse, then throttled Jackson Bend and Jersey Town in the 1-mile Kelso two weeks ago. This makes him interesting for the Breeders Cup, but it hasn't been the Year of Uncle Mo, to say the least.

* * *

By far the most interesting horse this year has been the 4-year old filly Havre de Grace. She emerged in the second half of last year, with narrow losses to division winner Blind Luck in the Delaware Oaks and Alabama, turned the tables on Blind Luck in the Cotillion, then ran a good third in the BC Distaff behind Unrivaled Belle and...Blind Luck. She figured to be one of the top older females this year and hasn't disappointed. She won a pair of graded stakes at Oaklawn--including the Grade 1 Apple Blossom--beating Blind Luck and the fast filly Switch in the process. After winning a meaningless Delaware race, she took on Blind Luck once again in the Delaware Handicap. The result was the best race of the season:

After posting a 106 Gowanus Speed Figure in the Delaware, Havre de Grace's connections looked at the unexciting older crop of horses and decided to take a chance by running her in the Woodward, the 9 furlong race for older horses at Saratoga Labor Day weekend, the same one Rachel Alexandra won in 2009. Their logic was straightforward: if they weren't meeting Blind Luck, there was nothing to gain by beating other females, and the male horses weren't exactly formidable. Sent off as the favorite, she rewarded her connections with a very strong win:

Knowing the Horse of the Year game isn't won in September, her connections wisely then sent her to the Beldame--1 1/8 miles for fillies and mares at Belmont--where she romped over pro tem 3yo filly division leader Royal Delta. With Blind Luck out for the season with an injury, it looks like she'll go to the Breeders Cup Classic and take on the boys once again. And in this race, she'll meet an interesting crop of horses: the aforementioned Uncle Mo, Stay Thirsty, Tizway and Flat Out, international star So You Think, and some intriguing prospects like To Honor and Serve. If she wins the Classic, she'll be Horse of the Year in a landslide.

* * *

So it this the year of Havre de Grace? Maybe. To date she's received no attention from the non-racing press because...well, we're not sure exactly why. She's a large and beautiful horse who's neat to watch, she does not look outmatched by colts. Her trainer is Larry Jones of Eight Belles fame, who's very good with the media and is always sporting cowboy attire. Her owner is Rick Porter, who some would dub insufferable, but we see as refreshing, as his barn always has fast horses entered aggressively (e.g., Eight Belles in the Derby) that run well. And she hasn't emerged out of nowhere, because everyone in racing knew that the players in the older ladies division this year were her and Blind Luck.

Maybe it's just fatigue from the recent run of great fillies. As we noted last year, we've had an amazing stretch of exciting fillies. Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta were 1-2 in HOTY voting in 2009, Zenyatta won last year, and Goldikova has been omnipresent since 2008. Havre de Grace, while good, has none of the flamboyance of these three horses. She isn't a steamroller on the front end like Rachel Alexandra. She isn't an explosive closer that's always exciting like Zenyatta. And she doesn't have the amazing versatility of Goldikova. She's just a strong, honest, fast filly. Given that she's accomplishing things that these other three gals have accomplished so recently, maybe we're just taking her for granted.

What that gives us is another Breeders Cup Saturday that's laden with intrigue. We'll get to some of the other storylines in the coming days, but the big one is what happens with Havre de Grace. If she runs in the Classic and wins, she'll have quietly put together a fabulous year for a filly, one worthy of Horse of the Year, and one that should be remembered along with recent great fillies. And if she loses...well, it's a veritable mess, because there are a lot of holes in all the other contenders for Horse of the Year and the Classic itself.

Saratoga Special: The Alabama

2011-08-20T09:26:00.006-04:00

Although it gets 1/100000 of the attention of its male counterpart, there is a female equivalent version of the Triple Crown, called the Triple Tiara. What exact races have made up the Triple Tiara have varied over the years, but it's always been New York based, and it's always consisted of three races from the Acorn, Mother Goose, Coaching Club of America Oaks, and the Alabama. And every time it's been swept, it's by a quality horse. All 8 horses to sweep the series are in the Racing Hall of Fame, and two of them (Ruffian, Shuvee) are among the 10 best American fillies ever.

Today, in the 131st running of the Alabama, It's Tricky goes for the 9th sweep of the Triple Tiara. It hasn't been done since Sky Beauty pulled off the sweep in 1993. Can she do it? Let's take a look at the intriguing competition in the 10 furlong dirt race.

1. Royal Delta (6-1 morning line). The beaten favorite in the CCA Oaks, where she was bet down to favoritism off her high Gowanus Speed Figure in the Black Eyed Susan, where she won easily and beat Buster's Ready, who came back to win the Mother Goose. Trainer Bill Mott chose not to run her again until the CCA Oaks--9 weeks later--and when the serious running began, she came up empty. An optimistic read is that she needed the race off a layoff and could move forward here. We're a little more pessimistic, and think that it's more likely that the Black Eyed Susan was an outlier and the GSF is inflated. She's beautifully bred and has a right to improve, but we're looking elsewhere for the winner.

2. Pinch Pie (15-1). Has never had a speed figure decline in her seven races. Unfortunately, she started off with a 38 and has only wound up at a 78, and in a turf start at that. Not only is she too slow to compete with these, she's completely bereft of early speed and will be hard pressed to be a factor at all.

3. Plum Pretty (2-1). The likely early pacesetter, she won the Kentucky Oaks just off the front end, and followed that up with a pair of close seconds to putative division leaders Zazu and It's Tricky in the Hollywood Oaks and CCA Oaks. There's a chance she gets away with dominating the race on the front end because there isn't much other speed in the race, but we note that in her three races at 9 furlongs, she barely held on in the Kentucky Oaks and gave up the lead inside the sixteenth pole in the other two. It's tough to see how the extra distance is going to actually help her.

4. It's Tricky (9-5). She's actually underrated for a horse that's won 2 graded stakes and only lost once. The nicely bred Godolphin horse won her first three races at Aqueduct over last winter, which isn't exactly a proving ground for greatness, so they shipped her to Florida for the Gulfstream Park Oaks, where she foundered over a track that many horses don't like. Completely ignored in the Acorn, she went off at a generous 10-1, where she sat off a fairly lively pace set by a horse that folded easily and won easily over the talented Turbulent Descent (who came back and won clobbered the field in the Test). That said, the win was over the slop, which lead to her going off in the CCA Oaks at a fairly generous 4-1, and she prevailed willingly over Plum Pretty in the stretch.

She's well-bred (2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft out of a well-bred Tale of the Cat mare), is in the hands of a fabulous trainer (Kieran McLaughlin), and has tactical speed. There's no particular reason to think she can't go 10 furlongs. The only real downside with her is that she's difficult to train and ride, a little reminiscent of Coronado's Quest in 1998, who misbehaved his way out of the Triple Crown races. (And then went on to win the Haskell and Travers when his head was screwed on straight.) If she acts up, she might be vulnerable.

5. St. John's River (5-1). Exits a victory in the Delaware Oaks, which oddly, has been the best source for finding Alabama winners recently--the last three winners (Blind Luck, Careless Jewel and Proud Spell) all won it, and 2003 winner Island Fashion ran second in it. That actually isn't the race that impressed us, though, it was her runner up finish in the Kentucky Oaks where she drew the 13 post, settled back 16 lengths from the front, and rallied strongly into a moderate pace to just miss second to Plum Pretty. Her breeding is a little obscure (Include by a Private Account mare) but it's quite good for 10 furlongs. The question is whether she'll get enough pace to run at, but we think new jockey Robby Albarado is going to be pretty cognizent of this issue, and will have her more like 5-6 lengths off the lead than 15-16 back. If so, look out, because she's got the best closing kick of them all.

6. Inglorious (6-1). If the race were on synthetics she'd be 1-5, as she's 5 for 5 on the plastics, while a her two dirt starts were both losses in Louisiana. But it's worth noting that since being shipped back to Canada, she may have blossomed into a much better horse. She won a prep for the Woodbine Oaks, then won the Oaks, then stretched out to 10 furlongs and took on the Canadien boys in the Queens Plate and won that easily. As a result, she actually has the highest last race GSF, which is a positive expectation bet. Given her breeding is actually fine for the dirt and she didn't run too poorly in her two dirt starts, is it possible she's actually just turned into a good horse.

Pick. This is a fun race with a short field and only one true "toss". By process of elimination, we don't think Royal Delta is as good as the other horses in the field, and think Plum Pretty wants no part of 10 furlongs. As for the remaining three, there isn't a result that would shock us, but wer're going with the horse with the best stretch kick and distance breeding, and think St. John's River outkicks It's Tricky in the stretch while holding off Inglorious.

1. St. John's River 2. Inglorious 3. It's Tricky.

Enjoy the race!

Transactions Analysis: The Greatest TA Ever Edition

2011-08-11T10:00:00.006-04:00

Without a doubt, this is, to me, the best TA ever. Why? Is it because Corey signed Jarrod Saltalamacchia? Because of the Mets' goofy win over the Padres on Monday? Or an on-point reference to Biens Nationaux? To be revealed. (El Angelo)

That's sort of a cheap trick from a reader-service perspective. But, then again, so is about 38% of the average TA. I'll allow it. (Teddy)

Cosmic Douchery

Signed Mike Dunn, RP, Florida [7/15]
Signed Gordon Beckham, 2B, Chicago (AL); Released Jordan Schaefer, OF, Atlanta [7/17]
Released David Aaaaardsma, RP, Mayo Clinic [7/18]
Signed Matt Capps, RP, Minnesota [7/22]
Signed Edwin Encarnacion, Train Wreck, Toronto; Released Glen Perkins, SP, Minnesota and Mark Trumbo, 1B, Anaheim [7/26]
Signed Rex Brothers, RP, Colorado and Vinnie Pestano, RP, Cleveland; Released Rodney Fernando, RP, Anaheim and Raul Ibanez, OF, Philadelphia [7/28]
Signed Daniel Bard, RP, Boston; Released Brothers and Placido Polanco, 2B, Philly [8/2]
Signed Eric Young, 2B, Colorado and Luke Hochevar, SP, Kansas City [8/9]

When you're out of it, the three best things you can do to prepare for next year is trade off assets you won't keep, stockpile new assets, and plummet in the standings to get a better draft pick. Having dealt off most of the players that the contenders might want, the Asshole Astronauts are fully ensconced in themes 2 and 3 for the final ten weeks of the season. I mean, how can you rationalize picking up E5dwin E5ncarnacion if you're not tanking? Or keeping Raul Ibanez until August, when he's been stuffed by a taxidermist since Arbor Day? Or even thinking about giving Eric Young a shot?

There are some decent ideas here. I love the Dan Bard pickup as a hedge for the Boston closing spot in 2012; he's actually not a bad play in general for the rest of the year to soak up innings and provide garbage W's and saves. Gordon Beckham strikes me as precisely the type of risk you should take in August when your team's out of it--especially with his contract reset--though I'll note as his former owner that he perpetually turns it on after The Feast of the Assumption, only to do nothing the following spring. And maybe Mike Dunn will close next year. But it's hard for me to sign off on a series of transactions that actually includes the addition of Matt Capps. (El Angelo)

Do we do contract resets anymore? I thought I killed that when I tried to enable a reset grab of Eric Gagne by engaging in sham transactions until the intial drop of Gagne was hidden from view. I am why we can't have nice things in this league.

Also, if you're looking for vulture wins out of the Boston 'pen, don't mess around with My Boy Dan Bahhd--skip straight to Alfredo Aceves. He is 8-1 this year, has a career record of something crazy like 22-2, and is an FA in the league right now. He also has a fun alliterative name, unlike Rex Brothers, whose name sounds like the secret identity of a failed 1950's radio serial superhero. Superhero name? The Pewter Parachutist. (Teddy)

Jeters Never Prosper

Signed Javy Vazquez, SP, Florida and Brett Anderson, SP, Oakland; Released Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore and Andres Torres, OF, San Fran [8/4]
Signed Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado; Released Daniel Murphy, Non-Walking Corpse, New York (NL) [8/8]

I get taking a stab on Dexter Fowler, who may or may not be any good, and playing stash-and-see with Brett Anderson, who could be a stud and a curious 12th keeper next year. What I don't get at all is why a team that already has Jered Weaver, John Danks, Jeremy Hellickson, Dan Haren, Jair Jurrjens and a rehabbing Johan St. Johan would waste a minute with Javy Vazquez. I mean look at that rotation. It's quite good. It doesn't need someone that was last effective for a full season in 2002. (El Angelo)

The Vazquez grab looks better in light of its cost, Andres Torres, who is currently re-enacting the last third of Flowers for Algernon every night in San Francisco. I have to say, I do like the Anderson stash--while he's threatening to enter Erik Bedard territory in terms of health, he's also in...well, Erik Bedard territory in terms of performance when healthy. Either guy would be keepable if you could talk yourself into the idea that you could get even 180 IP out of them. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

Signed Vance Worley, SP, Philly; Released Brett Anderson, SP, Oakland [7/14]
Signed the Corpse of Jorge Posada, C, New York (AL); Released Raffy Furcal, SS, Los Angeles [7/20]
Threw Posada's Corpse off the back of a barge in the East River; Signed Alberto Callaspo, 2B, Kansas City [7/22]
Signed Cameron Maybin, OF, San Diego; Released Jason Bourgeois, OF, Houston [7/23]
Signed Jason Bartlett, SS, San Diego; Released Danny "O!" Valencia, 3B, Minnesota [7/25]
Released Bartlett [7/27]
Traded Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta, Ryan Vogelsong, Fluke SP, San Fran, Logan Morrison, OF, Florida and their 5th round pick to Kicked in the Nuts for Michael Young, 2B, Texas and a 3rd round pick [7/31]
Signed Jerry Hariston, Jr., Jack of All Trades, Milwaukee, Jeff Niemann, SP, Tampa and Ian Desmond, SS, Washington; Released Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland [7/31]
Released Hairston [8/4]
Claimed Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona off waivers; Released Bobby Parnell, Useless Pitcher of Death, New York (NL) [8/5]

The only real negative that I see here is trading away Dan Uggla after he was completely useless for 3 months, only to have him embark on the best hitting month of his life. Other than that, it's arguable that the Torkies have "won" the TA, to the extent that eating other players regurgitated Chipwiches can be deemed winning. Vance Worley has gone from a guy with an odd name to a legit #4 starter in Philly and a definite keeper. Hell, he'd be useful on most teams in contention right now. Paul Goldschmidt isn't a horrible idea either, especially if it involves tossing Bobby Parnell a cement block while he's screaming for help in Flushing Bay. Even Jeff Niemann and Desmond are decent ideas for seeing what they have around and if they're part of an answer in 2012.

As for the trade, I'm generally of the opinion that when you give up 3 players that you shouldn't keep and get back a higher draft pick, you did well. That the Torkies also got Michael Young--he of apparently 2000 hits, which I find amazing--is just icing on the cake. Well done, Tucker. I feel like my co-author's prediction that they'll make a run at 5th just to spite others is near true. (El Angelo)

I think the Torkies thought they were selling Uggla at the top of the market, only to see him extend his streak another two weeks. Regardless, a team that picked only twice during my first four beers of the draft last year needs to draft in bulk next year, and this trade lets them do that without giving away the store. (Teddy)

The Little Green One

Signed Denard Span, OF, Minnesota, Peter Bourjos, OF, Anaheim and Alex Presley, OF, Pittsburgh; Released Kyle Seager, IF, Seattle [7/16]
Released Bourjos [7/24]
Signed Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincy [7/27]
Released Span [7/28]
Traded Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis, Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee, Mariano Rivera, RP, New York (AL) and their 8th and 11th round picks to The Spam Avengers for their 1st and 4th round picks, Dillon Gee, SP, New York (NL), Tim Stauffer, SP, San Diego and David Freese, 3B, St. Louis; Signed Brett Cecil, SP, Toronto [8/1]
Released Freese; Signed Brett Lawrie (2B, TOR)

The line looks impressive, but color me somewhat meh. Yes, they got back a #1 for to pitchers that they couldn't keep in Carpenter and Greinke, which isn't shitty, and if the trade was just those two guys for a 1, this would be a good deal to me, even if they got no keepable players back, which they didn't.

What tips the trade the other way is that the Kermits also had to give up Mo Rivera, which to me, was a pretty steep price to pay for a non-lottery pick. Rivera's still going to save 35+ games for the Yankees next year, only takes 1 keeper spot next year, and in the draft would probably go somewhere between 10 and 16. (Hell, Brandon Lyon went 22 this year.) And you know that Alex's pick is not going to be any worse than 10th, and is about 70% likely to be #12, which will allow you to draft someone like...oh, I dunno, Heath Bell?

Lastly, Yonder Alonso would be a great pickup in Strat, where he wouldn't be blocked by Joey Votto or constrained by the inner thoughts of Dusty Baker. Unfortunately, we're not playing Strat. (El Angelo)

I like the trade better than that. Contrary to the slavering proclamations of Michael Kay, Rivera will in fact age. He'll be a little less valuable next year, and a little less valuable than that the following year. The Seasick Baby Crocodiles can hope to replace 80% of his value with that 4th-round pick, and maybe use the 1 on something shiny and fun.

I also like the pickups of Alonso (who could be freed up for some PT if the offseason breaks right, or even if Dusty forgets what it felt like to watch Jonny Gomes try to play the OF) and Brett Lawrie (who plays an increasingly shallow position and will play in an increasingly deep lineup in TOR next year). These guys are pulling off a pretty orderly retreat, which is all you can ask at this stage. (Teddy)

Rancho Carne Toros

Released Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland [7/24]
Wrongly signed Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles; Released Dave Pauley, RP, Seattle/Detroit [8/3]
Cut Gordon; Signed Jason Bartlett, SS, San Diego [8/4]
Traded Yovanni Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee, Justin Masterson, SP, Cleveland and their 4th round pick to amy winehouse had pretty feet for Tim Lincecum, SP, San Fran and their 7th round pick [8/5]
Signed Matt Joyce, OF, Tampa [8/6]
Released Garrett Jones, 1B, Pittsburgh [8/10]

The downside of my Three Aces strategy was revealed to me the other night when I forgot that Homer Bailey was in my rotation as my 4th starter. Whoops. I'll let Chad comment on a fairly benign set of transactions, since I have little to say. What I'd prefer to do is taunt my co-author about Jose Valverde, who he compared to 1630s Tulipomania in our season preview. Saturday marked Valverde's 32nd save of the year with zero blown. I'll sit down now, since I've just tempted fate. (El Angelo)

Hey, plenty of people get rich during bubbles. It's getting out before you get poor that counts.

Anyway, I agree that this is a pretty blah set of moves, though I will say that it's getting pretty late in the day for a contender to be picking up guys like the Petco-crippled Jason Bartlett. As impressive as it is that this team is going to drag the zombiefied Hanley Ramirez to a spot in the money, you can't help but wonder what the standing would look like if Hanley had showed up this year. (Teddy)

Paging Dr. Rumack

Traded Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Boston to Chicago Residents for Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa and their 6th round pick [7/22]
Signed Ty Wigginton, 3B, Colorado [7/23]
Signed Alexei Casilla, SS, Minnesota [7/26]
Released Casilla; Signed Raffy Furcal, SS, Los Angeles/St. Louis [7/28]
Signed Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland; Released Theodore Roosevelt Lilly, SP, Los Angeles [8/3]
Signed Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles; Released Juan Uribe, SS, Los Angeles [8/7]

Kipnis and Gordon could be a fun middle infield next year. And I actually love that this team cut Uribe for Gordon. Do you think Ned Coletti wishes he could do just that? (El Angelo)

They added a ton of speed in Gordon and Dez Jennings, who is playing like the love child of Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury right now. There are actually a lot of fun pieces lying around on this roster, especially if you think that Crawford's collapse is a one-year blip. At the very least a right side of Kipnis and Eric Hosmer would be fun to follow in 2012. (Teddy)

More Fish For Kunta!

Signed Edwin Jackson, SP, Chicago (AL)/St. Louis and Macier Izturis, SS, Anaheim; Released Travis Morning Wood, SP, Cincy and Bartolo Colon, SP, New York (AL) [7/15]
Signed Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh; Released Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago (NL) [7/21]
Signed Jemile Weeks, 2B, Oakland [7/22]
Signed Tsuyoshi Nishioka, 2B/SS, Minnesota [7/26]
Released Weeks [8/5]
Released Lawrence Jones, 3B, Atlanta [8/8]

Here was how I felt when I heard that my worthy co-author cut Larry Jones:

Aw man. No more Larry. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out. The day Lawrence Q. Jones was cut from a fantasy team was truly, truly, a glorious one. In fact, it makes for the Greatest TA Ever. (El Angelo)

At the risk of interrupting whatever bacchanal celebration you're engaged in right now (I'm envisioning something like the shootout scene in Boogie Nights with Angelo in his house blasting Night Ranger and a little kid randomly lighting off firecrackers in the background), Larry was scooped up by WTF just after I cut him. Neither Ang nor the Mets will ever be free of Larwrence Chippocrates Jones. He named his son Shea, who will eventually name his own son Citi, and the family will take up residence in the inflatable apple in centerfield. All of this has happened before, and all of it will happen again. Selah.

Hey, does this mean this is no longer the greatest TA ever? Can I stop trying now? Cool. I'm going to go grab some Skittles. (Teddy)

The Spam Avengers

Signed Matt Lindstrom, RP, Colorado; Released Jason Bay, Crapshitass, New York (NL) [7/19]
Released Lindstrom [7/28]
Traded their 1st and 4th round picks, Dillon Gee, SP, New York (NL), Tim Stauffer, SP, San Diego and David Freese, 3B, St. Louis to The Little Green One for Carpenter, SP, St. Louis, Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee, Mariano Rivera, RP, New York (AL) and their 8th and 11th round picks [8/1]

Steal. The team's currently tied with two others for seventh place in wins, and gets two guys that should rack up some W's down the stretch. They add Rivera, which probably doesn't get them ahead of my 5-closer crapfest, but may have them add another point or so and drags down Andy, bringing a higher ceiling into play. It's rare you can trade two picks and no players and gain 3-7 points of upside, but that's exactly what they did here. Beautiful work, Alexis. (El Angelo)

Again, I think "steal" is probably strong, because I don't think the Commish did that badly. The analysis of the upside to Alex is spot-on, though. I think at the end of the season we're going to look at the rosters of the board teams and just laugh, because the depth is just getting ridiculous at this point.

I fucking hate green Skittles. They should sell bags with no green and double orange. (Teddy)

Kicked in the Nuts

Released Corey Patterson, OF, Toronto/St Louis [7/19]
Traded Michael Young, 2B, Texas and their 3rd round pick to Le Dupont Torkies for Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta, Ryan Vogelsong, Fluke SP, San Fran, Logan Morrison, OF, Florida and their 5th round pick; Released Torii Hunter, OF, Anaheim and Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto [7/29]
Signed Mark Trumbo, 1B, Anaheim [7/30]

I consider myself to be reasonably intelligent and on the right side of the bell curve when it comes to fantasy baseball. I get roster management, playing for this year and next year, and all the machinations that go into having a team on a keeper league. I understand that some positions are deeper than others, etc., and that not everyone values players the same way. I understand all of this.

Which is a short way of saying I am completely stumped by the trade from Will's perspective. If you've declared you're out of it for this year, and the standings tend to back you up...why are you dealing off a #3 for component parts like Ryan Vogelsong? (El Angelo)

See, I viewed this as KitN's undeclaration . At the time he made the trade, there were only three teams playing for three money slots. One more GFIN team would mean there are 4 teams for thee slots. Logically,* then, any that additional GFIN team would have a 75% shot of hitting the board. Why not take a shot and pray for Troy Tulowitski or Ryan Braun or Tim Lincecum to get crippled?

Or maybe he just really believes that Vogelsong will keep it up next year. Stranger things have happened--ask Sahil how he's feeling about Jose Bautista. (Teddy)

*May not in fact be logical.

Chicago Residents

Released Ty Wigginton, 3B, Colorado [7/19]
Released Matt Joyce, OF, Tampa [7/20]
Traded Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa and their 6th round pick to Paging Dr. Rumack for Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Boston [7/22]
Released Daniel Bard, RP, Boston [7/23]
Signed Jarrod Veal Saltalamaccchia, C, Boston [7/28]
Signed Jason Bourgeois, OF, Houston; Released Justin Smoak, 1B, Seattle [7/30]
Signed Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis [8/3]

I thought Corey made a great deal picking up Yook for the homestretch and told him that right after the deal. To prove that I have no real idea what I'm talking about, since that deal, Desmond Jennings has an OPS over 1.000, has stolen 8 bases, and has basically shown that the Rays were morons for not calling him up in May. Wank. I do think the trade helps Corey this year, but this may be one he looks back on and regrets quickly. (El Angelo)

Yeah, this has a chance to be the fantasy equivalent of Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz. But, hey, the Tigers won the division that year.

Since Ang sort of half-kicked the Jarrod Saltalamacchia pickup earlier, I feel compelled to chime in. Guy was .327/.407/.538 in June and .283/.343/.550 in July. His counting stats haven't been quite as impressive because Varitek is catching all of Beckett's starts, plus the usual day-game-after-night-game rotations. But he's been an above-average catcher for about 3 months now. (Teddy)

amy winehouse had pretty feet

Signed Johnny Damon, OF, Tampa and Josh Willingham, OF, Oakland; Released Matt Capps, RP, Minnesota [7/17]
Released Willingham [7/18]
Released Damon [7/29]
Released Rafael Soriano, RP, New York (AL) [7/31]
Traded Tim Lincecum, SP, San Fran and their 7th round pick to Rancho Carne Toros for Yovanni Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee, Justin Masterson, SP, Cleveland and their 4th round pick [8/4]
Released Kyle Lohse, SP, St. Louis and David Robertson, RP, New York (AL) [8/5]
Signed Aubrey Huff, 1B, San Fran [8/9]

Fantasy imitates life. In his newsletter and podcast, Joe Sheehan has been screaming about Aubrey Huff playing over Brandon Belt for a total of 93 hours and 76,000 words this year, insisting that the Giants are morons. (Which they are.) So you can only imagine what Sheehan would say about this pickup if he were analyzing our wonderful league. It might be enough invective to make Michelle Bachmann blush. (El Angelo)

I dig the trade--Yo! is a nice piece, Masterson has absolutely murdered RHB this year, and both are young enough to contribute in future seasons. But setting the trade aside, the median age of the players in these moves is about 35. At this risk of getting overly technical, I'm compelled to point out that future seasons will take place in the, well, future. 35+ year-old ballplayers tend not to thrive in the future. (Teddy)

Wu Tang Financial

Released Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland [7/18]
Re-signed Sizemore; Released Russell Martin, C, New York (AL) [7/20]
Claimed Jose Altuve, Midget, Houston, off waivers [7/23]
Signed Doug Fister, SP, Seattle/Detroit; Released Kevin Correia, SP, Pittsburgh [7/24]
Signed Lawrence Chippocrates Jones

Also prevalent on the Sheehan podcast and newsletter: mocking Jim Hendry for twiddling his thumbs with a last place roster instead of being active, as Hendry has this notion that the Cubs' roster as currently constituted, can compete in 2012. When you pick up a guy that hasn't been healthy for 4 years, a borderline #4 starter and a midget middle infielder, you can see who you're best compared to. (El Angelo)

This is just all anti-Chipper vitriol. If WTF had snagged John Franco instead, Ang would be calling for him to run for office. (Teddy)

Saratoga Special: Whitney Day Late Pick Four (Updated)

2011-08-05T17:42:00.006-04:00

We haven't done anything on Saratoga in a while, and Saturday's the perfect excuse to take a look at the card and revel in the majesty that is August racing in upstate New York. Saturday's card presents a bunch of full fields early on, two Graded 1 stakes races, and a fascinating ungraded turf stakes. And a Pick Four bet with a 50-cent minimum that includes all three stakes races. What do you say we analyze the late Pick Four and put together some tickets?

De La Rose Stakes (Race 8)
Condition: 1 mile on the inner turf for fillies and mares that haven't won a graded stakes on the turf in 2011; $75,000 purse.

There are a slew of interesting horses in this race, but none are more intriguing than shipper Deluxe, who's owned by Juddmonte Farms, by Storm Cat out of the mare Hasili. For those of you not familiar with Hasili's other progeny, here's the list, excluding Raise the Flag, who could only get on the track once:

Dansili: won 5 of 14 starts, including a Grade 2 in Europe, and ran 3rd in the 2000 BC Mile. He's also become a good sire, siring, amongst others, 2006 Arc winner Rail Link.
Banks Hill: won 5 of 15 starts, including three Grade 1s, including the 2001 BC Filly & Mare Turf.
Heat Haze: 7 wins in 14 starts, including two Grade 1s, and finished 4th in the 2003 BC Filly & Mare Turf.
Intercontinental: 13 wins in 22 starts, including two Grade 1s, one of which was the 2005 BC Filly & Mare Turf.
Cacique: 7 wins in 18 starts, including two Grade 1s.
Champs Elysees: Arguably the least impressive looking of the sextet on the track, he won 6 of 29 starts, but still won 3 Grade 1s.

So to summarize, Hasili has produced 6 graded stakes winners, 5 of which won a total of 12 Grade 1s, and two Breeders Cup races. It's quite the lineage, and in the list of great dams, she's on the short list with Toussad, Urban Sea and Personal Ensign. And this, we think, makes Deluxe a must-use in this start--though she hasn't won a graded stakes yet, she's 3 for 6 lifetime and was a not-bad 2nd to champion Sarafina last spring.

We wouldn't recommend flying solo on Deluxe, though, because there are some other interesting horses in the race. Evading Tempete is well-bred and appears to have been pointed for this off a long layoff. Tapistfly has run well each time this year and has good tactical speed that should play well. And Prize Catch has run a series of sharp races without a win this year, and looks primed for a big effort. If you're looking for a total bomb, La Cloche should close well and had excuses in her last.

Primary horses: Deluxe (9), Evading Tempete (5), Prize Catch (3)
Backup horses: Tapitsfly (8), La Cloche (11)

Test Stakes (Race 9)
Condition: 7 furlongs on the dirt for 3yo fillies, $250,000 purse, Grade I

The two favorites in this race look worth trying to beat. Turbulent Descent hasn't been out of the exacta in her lifetime and has a pair of Grade 1's to her name, but hasn't run particularly fast and may be better on synthetics. Her Smile won the Grade 1 Prioress last out, but looks like a 6 furlong horse, and there's no bigger difference in racing than that between 6 and 7 furlongs. We think both need to be used as backups, but are looking elsewhere for our picks.

First on our list is American Lady, who won't be a huge price (3-1?), but has ran beautifully in all three races and ships from California for Bob Baffert. The horse has tactical speed and appears to be on the improve, and may just be the best horse here. Next in line is Salty Strike, who's turning back after a blah effort in the Mother Goose, and seems well-suited to 1-turn sprints, as her Dogwood and allowance races earlier this year were fabulous. Also interesting is Pomeroy's Pistol, who sports a sharp workout on the heels of just missing in the Prioress. If she's going to be 10-1 and Her Smile will be 5-2, who would you prefer?

Primary horses: American Lady (2), Pomeroys Pistol (7), Salty Strike (9)
Backup horses: Turbulent Descent (6), Her Smile (8)

The Whitney Handicap (Race 10)
Condition: 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for 3yo+ males, $750,000 purse, Grade I

One of the premier dirt races for older horses, everyone is looking at this 11-horse field as evenly matched with few tossouts. We see their point, but disagree, and like fewer horses than most. Tizway and Morning Line are going to get a lot of action, but neither strikes us as a router: Tizway's two best efforts were in 1-turn miles at Belmont, and Morning Line really only has one good race beyond 8 furlongs (the Pennsylvania Derby) to his credit. We're tossing both. We're also going to toss everyone who comes in straight out of the Stephen Foster, which was run painfully slow and won by a rank outsider at 35-1.

That knocks us down to 5 horses, and we're inclined to use them all one way or another. Flat Out ran in that horrible Stephen Foster but came back to win the Suburban and run the fastest Gowanus Speed Figure of the year (a 113). We're not sure we buy it, but can't make a strong argument for tossing him off that race either. Rail Trip is something of a forgotten horse in the handicap division: after starting off his career 8-2-1 in 11 starts, he lost the Hollywood Gold Cup to the forgettable Awesome Gem, then was transferred to Dicky Dutrow's barn, where he ran up the track in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, was put on the shelf for 8 months, then ran a forgettable second to Friend or Foe in an ungraded stakes race in June. While some will look at this and see a horse that's done, we see a horse with tactical speed that should like 9 furlongs and needed a start off the layoff and should move forward. At 12-1, he's quite intriguing.

We're also inclined to give Headache, Rodman and Friend or Foe a shot. Headache has a fairly neat story, having won the Claiming Crown for "the best claiming horses" a year ago and since then winning twice on fast dirt tracks. He's very interesting, especially as a closer in a race with plenty of speed. Friend or Foe strikes us as a little "cheap" (i.e., not enough experience at Grade I races), but is at least in good form. Rodman may not have the stamina for 9 furlongs, but at 20-1, is worth keeping in play. Go deep here, but think outside the box.

Primary horses: Flat Out (1), Rail Trip (7), Headache (8)
Backup horses: Friend or Foe (2), Rodman (9)

A random State-Bred Allowance Crapfest
Condition: 7 furlongs on the dirt, for New York-bred colts 3yo+ who haven't won a race beyond a maiden claiming or starter, for $42,000

Ah, the usual garbage race to end the day at the track. We're not going to pretend that we've looked at this race as thoroughly as the others, but we have a couple of opinions. Bud White won his last by 17, and has to be used. So does Southbeachsandy, who's run a series of strong seconds and turns back a furlong. Wee Freudian hasn't run badly this year and adds blinkers for the not-bad Rick Schosberg. For backups, we'll include 4 useful horses that have a shot but we're less confident of.

Primary horses: Bud White (9), Southbeachsandy (11), Wee Freudian (12)
Backup horses: Cooks Forest (2), Token Sacrifice (5), Green Monster (8), Crea's Law (10)

The Play

The economical way to play the race, we think, is to demand that three of your primary horses wins, allowing you to go to the backup well just once. And for your ticket with your primary horses only, play for a dollar, not 50 cents, to "press" your strongest opinions. That would leave 5 tickets:

$1 Pick Four: 3, 5, 9/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 8, 11/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 9/6, 8/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 9/2, 7, 9/2, 9/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 9/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/2, 5, 8, 10.

We realize this isn't a cheap play--the 5 tickets come to $216. Let's revisit how this goes on Monday. Good luck to all!

UPDATE: Deluxe, sadly has scratched. We say add Miss Keller, who we don't love but did win this race last year, as a saver horse, and move Tapitsfly up to a primary horse, which makes the tickets:

$1 Pick Four: 3, 5, 8/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 10, 11/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 8/6, 8/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 8/2, 7, 9/2, 9/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 8/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/2, 5, 8, 10.

Transactions Analysis: French Revolution Edition

2011-07-14T09:00:00.002-04:00

On June 17, 1789, the members of the Third Estate, now called the National Assembly, gathered at Menus Plaisirs, their regular meeting hall to conduct the day's business in advance of the June 23 meeting called by King Louis XVI, only to find that the door was locked and barred and guarded by the royal army.

Undeterred by the showing of force and fearful that violence was imminent, the delegates at the only space large enough to hold 577 people: the King's indoor tennis court. There, 576 of them swore to what is opularly known as the Oath of the Tennis Court, vowing to reconvene until a constitution was "drawn up and fixed upon solid foundations." 21 days later, the Bastille was stormed, and the French Revolution was in full swing.

I'll leave it to my co-author to inspire us with some profound French words, but in honor of the anniversary of one of my favorite moments in history, let's have a French Revolution-inspired TA. Perhaps we will determine who is the Maximilian Robespierre of the league. (El Angelo)

Allons a demi-semetre, enfants de la Wankdorf! Nous preferons que les lascars n'echangent plus cette annee, parce que nous avons des femmes et des postes, et en plus Ang jusqu'avoir un bebe qui nous pensons sera brut que dommage, comme ses parents qui nous si aimons.

Et souvenez toujours: Corey Lidle ne peut jamais d'enfer piloter un avion.

Come along to the mid-year break, Wandorfers! We'd prefer that you jackasses don't make any more trades this year, because we do have wives and jobs, and Ang is also most of the way to having a baby we suspect is going to be loud as hell, like his parents we love so much.

And always remember: Corey Lidle never had any idea in hell how to fly a plane. (Teddy)

The Little Green One

Traded Raul Ibanez, OF, Philly; Wade Davis, SP, Tampa; Mike Trout, OF (Prospect); and 1st and 4th round picks in the 2012 draft to Cosmic Douchery for Mark Texieria, 1B, New York (AL); Tim Lincecum, SP, San Fran; and 6th and 8th round picks in the 2012 draft. [6/7]

Traded Lincecum and Daniel Hudson (SP, ARI) to clarence clemmons had pretty feet for a #1 and trade chum.

Traded Teixeira to TSA for Rickie Weeks (2B, MIL) and Dick Harden (P, Mayo Clinic Softball Team)

Signed: Jason Bourgeois, OF, Houston; Travis Snider (DH, TOR); Kyle Seager (2B/3B, SEA)

Waived: Bourgeois; John Buck (C, FLA); Maicier Izturis (IF, ANA); Charlie Morton (SP, PIT); Jason Bartlett (SS, SD)

A historical first was followed by a reversion to the usual, akin to the ascension to power by the Directory in 1795, which rescinded universal suffrage and undid most of the change done by the National Convention. Of course, most of the "change" by the National Convention included guillotining thousands of Frenchmen, so perhaps a reversion to the norm was not such a bad thing for Parisians. Or our beloved commissioner.

Here, we saw the Commish take an actual run at the money, trading away an unprotected first rounder and super prospect Mike Trout for a pair of bonafide studs, Mark Texieria and Tim Lincecum. No sooner did they arrive, however, than did the team sink like a stone, leading to the reversal and trade of both players. So the net, for those keeping score at home:

Andy's 1st and 4th + Mike Trout for Sahil's 1st, Alex's 3rd and Rickie Weeks

In the end that's probably not a deal you'd make, because it's likely that Ironhead is going to finish ahead of Andy. Still, I like Weeks as a keeper because 2B is so shallow, and for Trout, it's worth remembering that for every Jason Heyward, there are multiple Fernando Martinezes. Not a "win", but a fine salvage job. (El Angelo)

So here's the thing: somebody has to come in third. The contenders are (a) the current 3d place team, which has never won anything and is punting an entire category; (b) the current 4th-place team which, as we'll see, hasn't made a transaction in about 6 weeks; and (c) the current 9th-place team, which is the current 9th-place team. Why not keep going for it? I mean, I ended up punting from almost the same position, but that's because I was less interested in clawing my way back to 3d again than I was in reloading for a future season in which I might finally win. If I hadn't cashed last year, I'd have bought instead of sold. (Teddy)

clarence clemmons had pretty feet

Traded his #1 and trade chum to TGL1 for Lincecum and Hudson.

Signed David Robertson, RP, New York (AL); Alex Gonzalez, SS, ATL; Josh Tomlin (RP, CLE); Jason Bartlett (SS, SD)

Released Grant Balfour, RP, Oakland; Yuniel Escobar, SS, TOR; Todd Helton (1B, Still, COL); Alex White (SP, CLE); Gonzalez

One of the great things about a keeper league maturing is you get to see a ton of different approaches. And here, we've got Ironhead's approach: completely punt saves, ride the two best hitters in baseball (Bautista and Gonzalez) and try to rack up a shitload of strikeouts and wins from hard throwers that actually aren't very good. I can't see them winning with this strategy, but I can see them hitting the board.

Also, it's not every day you can brag that you picked up an All-Star off waivers. Of course, when it's Dave Robertson, it removes a little bit of the shine. (El Angelo)

Here we see an actual swarthy person formerly oppressed by an entrenched oligarchy forcefully asserting his right to participate amongst them as an equal. Vive la revolution! I wasn't previously aware that French anticolonial social theorist Frantz Fanon played fantasy BB, so this will be a treat to follow. (Teddy)

Chicago Residents

Traded his #1 and #4 picks, Mat Latos (SP, SD); Mike Minor (SP, AAA) and Tony Rizzo (1B, SD) to More Fish for Kunta in return for Ryan Braun (OF, MIL) and Troy Tulowitski (SS, COL)

Signed Rubby de la Rosa, SP, Los Angeles; Anthony F'ing Rizzo, 1B, San Diego; Ty Wigginton, 3B, Colorado; Eric Thames (OF, TOR); Cory Luebke (SP, SD)

Released Jonathan Herrera, 2B, Colorado; Chris Narverson, SP, Milwaukee; Tyler Colvin, OF, Chicago (NL); Billy Butler (1B, KC);

Ballsy. I don't mean going for it, I mean picking up Ty Wigginton, he of the career .325 OBP and 16 net steals in a ten-year career. Should a team that's actually starting Ty Wigginton be trading off a first round pick in a play to hit the money this year? Especially when they're in 9th place?

Maybe. The 9th place standing is a bit of an illusion; compression has made 4th - 10th place a tight pack, and two teams ahead of him have already chucked it in. And there's a shitload of room for improvement on the hitting side of the ledger. So knowing that David Wright is probably coming back in July, that Jason Heyward should hit better for the rest of the year...sure, why not add Tulo and Braun? Especially when you already have Will's #1 in the bank.

The real question is whether the price paid was too steep. I can't see this team finishing any worse than 6th with the current roster, meaning at worst, it gave up the #7 pick, plus Mat Latos and some lottery tickets in Minor and Rizzo. As I noted, I don't mind giving up the pick, it's trading away Latos that I question. Not that they'll need him next year, they may need him now. The team's #2 starter (Josh Johnson) is probably toast, and their #4 starter (Shawn Marcum) is playing in front of a historically awful defense. So while they'll pick up some ground on offense, I wonder if they're going to give some ground back on Latos, especially because he's ripe to improve off a first half laden with bad luck. (El Angelo)

I'm involved, so I obviously can't really comment. I do love me some Mat Latos, though, even if he spells his name like an utter douche. (Teddy)

More Fish For Kunta

Traded Ryan Braun (OF, MIL) and Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL) to Chicago for #1 and #4 picks, Mat Latos (SP, SD); Mike Minor (SP, AAA) and Tony Rizzo (1B, SD)

Signed David Hernandez, SP, Arizona; Derek Holland, SP, Texas; John Lannan, SP, Washington; Andrew Miller, SP, Boston; Felipe Paulino (SP, KC); Dan Duffy(SP, KC); Billy Butler (1B, KC)

Released Dan Duffy, SP, Kansas City; Allen Craig, 2B, St. Louis; Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado; Jonathan Lucroy (C, MIL); Hong-Chih Kuo (RP, Bellevue); Lannan; Miller; Hernandez

Cash out! The #1 plus lottery tickets isn't a bad return for two half seasons of studs. They have to now hope that Corey suffers from Elders syndrome and goes nowhere.

Elsewhere, I like the Billy Butler pickup as a complete flyer, especially if he gets traded to a real team. Of course, we said the same thing about James Loney two years ago, and look how that turned out. (El Angelo)

Whether this trade looks good in hindsight will come down to one thing: do Ubaldo Jimenez and Jon Sanchez revert to 2010 form in the second half? If so, I could have bought one more arm and made a run at 3rd. If not, no amount of offensive production from Braun and Tulo was going to get me above 70 points, and I'm better off with two 1s next year.

And yes, the Butler pickup might help me. Lance Berkman can now move to OF to replace Braun without opening a Derrek Lee-sized hole in my roster, and Butler will help fill the OBP hole caused by running CarGo and Wells out there every day. (Teddy)

Rancho Carne Toros

Traded Curtis Granderson, OF, New York (AL), Zach Britton, SP, Baltimore and 2nd and 6th round picks in the 2012 draft to Cosmic Douchery for Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas; Kyle Farnsworth, RP, Tampa; Joel Hanrahan, RP, Pittsburgh and 5th and 9th round picks in the 2012 draft

Traded Bud Norris (SP, HOU) and Matt Garza (SP, ORLY?) to clarence clemmons had pretty feet in return for Dustin Pedroia (2B, BOS)

Traded Jay Bruce (OF, CIN); Wandy Rodriguez (SP, HOU) and #1 & #5 picks to Rumack for Carlos Lee (MVP, Houston-Area DQ), Jon Lester (SP, BOS) and Roy Halladay (SP, PHI)

Called up Dustin Ackley, 2B/OF, Seattle

Signed JJ Hardy, SS, Baltimore; Garrett Jones (1B/OF, PIT); Jason Bourgeois (OF, HOU); Mitch Moreland (1B/OF, TEX); Lonnie Chisenhall (3B, CLE); Mimi Bonifacio (3B, FLA)

Released Sean Rodriguez, Jack of All Trades, Tampa; Wilson Betemit, 2B, Kansas City; Chad Qualls, RP, San Diego; Sean Burnett (P, WAS); Casey McGehee (3B, MIL); Hardy; Bouregois; Moreland.

While I've amassed the second-best offense so far this year, I've done it with minimal contribution from Hanley Ramirez and a below-par season from Albert Pujols, with both spending time on the DL. That's a fair chunk of what the deals are about: hope and faith that the two of them will rebound and have big second halves to offset the loss of Jay Bruce and Granderson (which Hamilton & Pedroia do offset). I also have to note that purging my roster of Granderson had a salutary effect; I've been 90% happier that I don't have to now root for the Yankees to do anything good on offense.

On the pitching side, the calculus is that stud pitchers trump middling pitchers, though unless Jon Lester is healthy, this gamble isn't going to work. But you know what? Unless you build a fortress of greatness like Alex did this year, you only get a chance to go for it every couple of years. I may have overpaid in draft picks for the roster I ended up with. But I'd rather overpay and lose than stand pat and never have a shot. (El Angelo)

I think that last sentence is also a Springsteen lyric. Or possibly a Successories poster--I sometimes have trouble distinguishing between the two.

Anyway, any team that hasn't hit the board for a while and finds itself in a solid second place might as well pull the trigger. Those back-to-back 19 point seasons seem pretty far away. (Teddy)

The Spam Avengers

Signed Tim Stauffer, SP, San Diego; Released Brett Myers, SP, Houston

Released Octavio Dotel, RP, Toronto

Traded The Dessicated Remains of Jason Bay and a 6th round pick in the 2012 draft to Cosmic Douchery for Kevin Gregg, RP, Toronto and a 10th round pick in the 2012 draft

Traded Rickie Weeks (2B, MIL) and Dick Harden (P?) to TLG1 in return for Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY)

Signed Tim Stauffer, SP, San Diego; Frank Francisco (RP, TOR); Jason Bay (It's Alive!!!, NYM)

Released Brett Myers, SP, Houston; Octavio Dotel, RP, Toronto; Mitch Moreland (1B, TEX); Ian Desmond (SS, WAS)

I can't believe I'm losing to a guy who voluntarily picks up Jason Bay. (El Angelo)

I feel like that trade was made inside one of those nuclear power plant clean rooms where the workers manipulate objects using gloves built directly into the wall. Everyone was moving kind of gingerly, and moved objects towards themselves only reluctantly.

In other news, both of the top two teams are completely ridiculous at this point. If TSA wins again, he's going to crown himself emperor in front of a frowning league commissioner, Napoleon-style (Teddy)

Kicked in the Nuts

Signed Mike Cuddyer, IF, Minnesota; JJ Hardy (SS, BAL); Ervin Santana (SP, ANA)

Released Josh Tomlin, SP, Cleveland; Brian Fuentes (RP, OAK)

Snore. Let's turn to my favorite random part of the French Revolution. For some reason, the Girondin decided to create a brand new calendar, creating 12 new months, instituting a 10-day week, and changing 1789 to "I year of Liberty" and giving each day a corresponding animal, fruit or tool. Today (7/12/11) would be 24 Messidor, CCXXII year of Liberty, also known as Alkanet, a flower used to give Rogan Josh its color.

Abolishing this system was either the best or worst thing Napoleon did, depending on your perspective. (El Angelo)

Josh Rogan is a second base prospect for the Diamondbacks, right?

This team is notable for being the first one in living memory to throw in the towel on a day when it was sitting in a money position. Weird league this year. I feel like the Torkies are going to make six win-now trades and come in third just to express his horror at all the sell-offs. (Teddy)

Paging Dr. Rumack

Traded Carlos Lee (MVP, Houston-Area DQ), Jon Lester (SP, BOS) and Roy Halladay (SP, PHI) to Rancho Carne for Jay Bruce (OF, CIN); Wandy Rodriguez (SP, HOU) and Angelo's 1st and 5th round picks and Scot's 5th round pick

Called up Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City from the Prospect List

Signed Greg Holland, RP, Kansas City; Melky Cabrera, OF, Kansas City

Released Jerry Sands, OF, Los Angeles; Arthur Rhodes, RP, Texas; Jerry Sands (OF, LAD); Denard Span (OF, MIN)

This team was going absolutely nowhere this year, but in the span of 3 weeks, you can see the structure for 2012 coming together. Carl Crawford needs to come back healthy and with his head screwed on straight, and Buster Posey needs to rebound from having his lower half shredded. Coupled with a decent core of Hosmer, Bruce, and two first round picks, and this offense has the makings of a competitive one next year. Of course, their top two starters are now gone and they're actively shopping their best closer (Walden), but there's a plan here, and it was fairly well-executed. (El Angelo)

There is more there than you'd expect on offense, though a lot of things are going to have to go right for him to get that pitching staff back where it was. It seems like every year we expect that the first round will finally go 11-12 deep. If that finally happens this year, these guys are in good shape. If it's Chad Billinsgley time again, maybe not. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

Signed Alberto Callaspo, 2B, Anaheim; Alexi Casilla, MI, Minnesota; Miguel Olivo, C, Seattle; Yuniel Escobar, SS, Atlanta; Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland; Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado; Steve Cishek, RP, Florida;

Wasted time with Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles;

Released Jake Arrieta, SP, Baltimore; Scott Downs, RP, Anaheim and Jorge Posada, C, New York (AL); Callaspo; Mike Aviles, MI, Kansas City; Casilla; Cishek.

I'm trying to find a single player here that's going to make a difference in 2011 or beyond. Maybe Yuni Escobar if he rebounds? Maybe. What I find interesting is how shallow the waiver pool has been this year, and I feel like I made the same remark last year. Has the player pool gotten shallower or the league tougher? (El Angelo)

The introduction of the prospect slots and the extra DL slot killed the waiver wire pretty good--that's three extra guys that teams can just squat on. Take 36 guys out of the waiver pool and things get pretty dire pretty quickly.

Carlos Carrasco has shown signs of life when not pitching against the Yankees--that was a legit snag. But, yeah, as a multiple-time former owner of Bert Callaspo I can testify that his presence on a roster generally means that something has gone amiss somewhere. (Teddy)

Jeters Never Prosper

Signed Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore; Daniel Murphy, 1B, New York (NL); Alexei Casilla (MI, MIN)

Released Vincente Padilla's Remaining Ligaments, RP, Los Angeles; Carlos Villanueva, RP, Toronto; Aubrey Huff, 1B, San Fran [6/14]

In 1793, the Committee for Public Safety rounded up all people that they dubbed criminals or threats to their powers and executed them. I would like to see something similar done to the entire Mets dugout every time they have Daniel Murphy--a fine complimentary player with no power--bat cleanup. (El Angelo)

Jim Johnson's name is a little too close to "Jim Jones" to start talking about mass killings.

I again note that this team is one of only about 3 who haven't yet formally renounced the possibility of third place. That's somewhat amazing, especially given that the owner has spent the last five weeks amassing what I think he would admit is a pretty beige transactions list. If he comes in third with all of his draft picks in place and without much keeper trouble for the offseason, a couple of other owners will be waiting with lead pipes at the next draft. (Teddy)

Cosmic Douchery

Traded Mark Texieria, 1B, New York (AL) and Tim Lincecum, SP, San Fran and 6th and 8th round draft picks to The Little Green One for Mike Trout, OF, Prospect List, Raul Ibanez, OF, Philly, Wade Davis, RP, Tampa and 1st and 4th round draft picks;

Called up Wilson Ramos, C, Washington from the Prospect List

Traded Kevin Gregggggg, RP, Toronto and a 10th round pick to The Spam Avengers for Jason Bay's Carcass and a 6th round pick

Traded Josh Hamilton, Methadone, Texas, Kyle Farnsworth, RP, Tampa, Joel Hanrahan, Pederast, Pittsburgh and 5th and 9th round picks to Rancho Carne Toros for Curtis Granderson, OF, New York (AL), Zach Britton, SP, Baltimore and 2nd and 6th round picks

Signed Jose Contreras, RP, Philly; Glen Perkins, SP, Minnesota; Rodney Fernando, RP, Anaheim; Wilton Lopez (RP, HOU)

Released Cameron Maybin, OF, San Diego; Jason Bay (OF, NYM); Ervin Santana, SP, Anaheim; Frank Francisco,

It's a results-oriented game, and you can't argue with someone who flips everything not tied down into a #1, #2, some middling picks and Mike Trout. But the real score here might be Curtis Granderson, who's either having a super fluke year or is a bonafide stud. An outfield of Trout-Granderson-McCutchen is a helluva place to start in 2012, let alone having two top 7 picks to boot. Well done, Monsieur. (El Angelo)

This roster has now turned over so much that I can't quite figure out the keeper situation. But assuming that there are 12 slots of guys left worth keeping, this team is set up great for next year. The sole remaining drama for the year is whether Trout breaks through the 15 GP barrier and consequently has to be kept on the main roster instead of the prospect list for next year. CD is no doubt rooting for Trout to come down with a case of the "Hellenic Flu." (Teddy)

Wu Tang Financial

Signed Mike Leake, SP, Cincinnati

Released Darwin Barney, Muppet, Chicago (NL)

July 13 marks the 209th anniversary of Jean-Paul Marat granting Mme. Charlotte Courday an audience while bathing (and writing--he had a desk in his bathtub, the 18th century equivalent of emailing on the shitter). After 20 minutes of conversation, Courday got up, drew a blade, and stabbed Marat in the heart. His final words were "Help me, my dear friend!" I feel like we've been hearing this same cry from Jon for 8 years. Somebody make sure he's not in the tub. (El Angelo)

My only regret is that Ang went first in this TA, because by all rights this thing should have smash cut to black right after that 18th century shitter-email joke. Bien fait. (Teddy)

The Best Grader Ever

2011-06-25T09:04:00.003-04:00

In 2009 we lauded Chad Ford as the most generous grader ever. Well, move over. Sam Amick's 2011 Draft Report Card would make a Harvard English professor blush. His grades:

A+: 4
A: 6
A-: 4
B+: 6
B: 4
B-: 2
C+: 2
C: 1
C-: 0
D: 0
F: 0
Inc.: 1

Not only has Amick topped Ford by giving out 20 grades of B+ or better, a whopping 1/3 of the drafting teams received an A or an A+, meaning they aced the draft. We'll go on record as saying that it's highly unlikely that 10 NBA teams did perfectly on Thursday.

Triple Crown Predictability (UPDATED)

2011-06-12T10:10:00.006-04:00

After Ruler on Ice's upset yesterday--on a day full of upsets on the Belmont card, there's been some chatter that this year was the most unpredictable ever because all three winners (Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, Ruler on Ice) were double-digit odds, which hasn't happened in 100 years. That sounds like it might be correct. Is it?

To find out, we took the odds of the winners for the 3 TC races from 1993 - 2011, and figured out what one would make if they parlayed the winners. For those unfamiliar with the term, "parlaying" means betting $2 on the Derby winner, then betting all of the winnings and the original $2 on the Preakness winner, and then doing the same into the Belmont. Our thought is that this would separate years with just one upset winner and more conventional results (like Giacomo and Afleet Alex in 2005) from years where everyone was confused 3 times.

Here are the results, sorted by total payoff.

Based on this methodology, this year's Triple Crown was the second most unpredictable behind 1999, where Charismatic upset the Derby at 31-1, was an overlayed 8-1 in the Preakness, and was then upset by longshot Lemon Drop Kid in the Belmont. The third one that stands out, unsuprisingly, is 2002, where Sarava was a 70-1 winner of the Belmont on the heels of War Emblem's 20-1 Derby upset.

We may expand this list if we're able to find the odds of more Triple Crown races, this was just based on what was easy to find at 9:00 in the morning while nursing a mild hangover. But yes, this year's races will go down as one of the more unpredictable in recent memory.

UPDATE: here's the list from 1960 - 2011. The top 3 remains unchanged. What's really neat is check out the bottom of the list. Parlays on Seattle Slew and Secretariat would have returned $5.88 and $7.15, respectively.

2011 Belmont Stakes Preview

2011-06-09T09:00:00.001-04:00

The field has been drawn for the 2011 Belmont, which presents the first re-match between Derby and Preakness winners since 2005, when Preakness winner Afleet Alex throttled Derby winner Giacomo and other hapless opponents to win the Belmont going away, proving that his Derby flop was the fluke. The exact same thing happened in 2001, when Monarchos and Point Given squared off, and Point Given ran away to win by 12 lengths, proving his Derby 5th was the real outlier. (Also present in that race: Dr. Greenfield, who finished DAFL.)

So does this mean that Shackleford is going to run away with the race? Let's count down the field from worst to probable first.

Really? No...really?

12. Isn't He Perfect. Trainer Doodnauth Shivmangal may want to make sure his liability insurance is paid up and his attorney is available, because his treatment of this horse has bordered on malpractice. This guy is 2-for-13 in his career, has never finished better than 5th in his four graded stakes starts, which he's lost by a combined 33 1/2 lengths. He was never a factor in the Preakness, and by anyone's examination, this is a harder assignment than the race three weeks ago. Let's hope he just stays out of everyone's way.

Tough to See Competing

11. Stay Thirsty. At some point, you are what your recent record says you are. Since running a decent second in the Hopeful last year, this guy has finished 5th-1st-7th-12th in his last 4 races. While he won the Gotham over 7 horses that would be 50-1 in this race, his other three stakes races--all grade 1's--were lost by a combined 42 1/4 lengths, and at no point in time was he ever in contention. The Pletcher name only gets you so far.

10. Ruler on Ice. If you can't win the Sunland Derby or Federico Tesio--both won by horses that flopped miserably in the Derby and Preakness--why should we take you seriously here? The only notable thing about this guy is the addition of blinkers, which should keep him close to the pace. That presence up front won't last long.

9. Prime Cut. Finished third in the Peter Pan last out, which has been a useful prep for the Belmont (Drosselmeyer and Lemon Drop Kid both used it as springboards), but the fact remains that this guy was handily beaten by Derby Kitten--who did nothing in the Derby--Alternation and Adios Charlie, all of which would be longshots here. And though he won the 1990 Preakness, Neil Howard isn't a guy we think of with Triple Crown horses; the only horse he's had do anything in the TC races recently was Midway Road's non-threatening second in the '03 Preakness. Look for this guy to rebound at Saratoga in some lighter stakes races.

Don't Fall for the Trap

8. Mucho Macho Man. After running a good 3rd in the Derby, he ran a much-less-good 6th in the Preakness. Over the last 15 years, horses with this pattern have been one of the worst plays in the Belmont. Here's how horses exiting the Preakness finished in the Belmont, by starters/win-place-show finishes:

Won Preakness: 11/2-4-2
Second in Preakness: 10/1-2-3
Third in Preakness: 10/1-0-0
Fourth or worse in Preakness: 16/1-1-1

Even that 3-for-16 in the money stat is a bit deceiving: Touch Gold won the '97 Belmont after finishing 4th in the Preakness, where he had one of the worst trips you'll ever see, and probably would have won the Preakness with any luck. That leaves us with Monarchos, who won the 2001 Derby, flopped in the Preakness, then rebounded to run a meh 3rd in the Belmont, and Medaglia d'Oro, who disappointed in both the 2002 Derby and Preakness to run a credible 2nd in the Belmont at 24-1...to 70-1 Sarava.

So in short, unless you're being compensated at huge odds or think the race is going to be chaotic, look elsewhere. MMM will not be a huge price and this race does not strike us as a complete crapshoot. We're looking elsewhere.

7. Shackleford. So let's go back to that prior stat. Three horses that won the Preakness finished out of the money in the Belmont: Big Brown, War Emblem and Louis Quatorze. What did all three have in common? Right--they were front-runners. As is Shackleford.

Big Brown isn't a great comparison because he pulled up lame during the race. And War Emblem's an odd comparison too, because he stumbled out of the gate, was rushed up to the front, and was spent after 3/4 of a mile. But Louis Quatorze...actually, not a bad comparison. Front runner who milked his speed for all he had in the Preakness. Ran in the Derby close to the lead. Was not the lone pace horse in the Belmont.

What happened in 1996? By the top of the stretch, he was being passed by Skip Away and Editor's Note, both horses that took advantage of the pace scenario and their latent distance capabilities. We think the exact same thing happens here and this guy is well-beaten.

6. Master of Hounds. This guy is going to be the wise guy horse du jour and will probably be around 5-1. Do you really want to take that short a price on a horse that's made 3 trips across the Atlantic in the last 5 weeks and has one dirt start that's been so lauded (for finishing in 5th place) that it's almost overrated at this point?

Maybe they shipped him back and forth to avoid the dreaded "Euro bounce". Even so, we're still not seeing the appeal in this guy, when there are much more interesting candidates at 3-4 times the price.

The Value Play for Exotics

5. Monzon. Intriguing. He started out the year with a strong closing win in a minor stakes win at Aqueduct, closing into a solid pace, albeit beating nothing. He no-showed in the Sam Davis in February, where clearly something went wrong because he disappeared for 3 months. He resurfaced in the Peter Pan, where he ran 6th after a horrible start and horrible trip, in a race he clearly needed. Now he's had a comeback race under his belt, is bred beautifully for the distance, and is working out sharply...at 40-1, there are worse ideas to fill out your triples.

Contenders

4. Nehro. We just can't get that excited about this guy. Yeah, he's run three bang-up seconds in a row. But let's emphasize that word: seconds. He still hasn't won a race beyond a maiden special weight, seems to hang when it matters most, and is probably going to be in the neighborhood of 3-1.

In recent years, we've seen a few examples of horses that ran well in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and were pointed for the Belmont. Aptitude (2000), Invisible Ink ('01), Empire Maker ('03), Bluegrass Cat ('06), Denis of Cork ('08), and Ice Box ('10) all ran second or third in the Derby in fine efforts, then skipped the Preakness to prepare for the Belmont, thinking the rest would help. Five of the six lost the Belmont at short odds (all but Invisible Ink were the first or second choice), with Empire Maker being the lone winner. Nehro seems to be this year's edition of this trend. We can't fault anyone who uses him underneath in exactas and triples--it should be noted that Aptitude, Bluegrass Cat and Denis of Cork all ran 2nd--but on top, we're siding with others.

(Ed. note: add to this list Perfect Drift, who ran next-to-last in '02 after running 3rd in the Derby and skipping the Preakness, and Steppenwolfer, who ran 3rd in the '06 Derby and 4th in the '06 Belmont. See? It's not a good play.)

3. Brilliant Speed. If you're going to take a horse that ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness, oddly, recent history has shown that you're better off taking a horse that didn't finish in the money in Louisville. Commendable ('00) may have been an extreme case--he finished 17th in the Derby--but Birdstone (8th in '04 Derby), Jazil (4th in '06) and Summer Bird (6th in '09) all parlayed out of the money Derby finishes into wins at the Belmont. Three horses fit this bill this year. We've already discussed the first, Master of Hounds, who we don't like. But also fitting this bill are this guy...

2. Santiva. ...and this guy. So why do we prefer Santiva to Brilliant Speed? Santiva's running lines indicate to us that he might have room to take another step forward. His Blue Grass proved to be a complete toss-out, as he had a bad trip over a surface he probably didn't like. He followed that up with a solid showing in the Derby, and has posted 3 solid workouts at Churchill Downs. And he's bred perfectly for the distance. (In fairness, so is Brilliant Speed.) Brilliant Speed, by contrast, still looks like a horse that wants a synthetic surface but will run honestly at a distance on the dirt. And we can't shake the fact that Brilliant Speed has improved his speed figures in seven straight races. Doing it an eighth time seems like a stretch--it's under a 1% possibility. Since it seems unlikely that a 93 GSF will win this race, we'll side with the guy with upside.

The Pick

1. Animal Kingdom. It's still only June, but we think this guy is the best 3 year old in this class. His Derby was absolutely fine, and his Preakness effort, while a losing one, was quite good. After a horrible break and a tough trip--it was not John Velazquez's best ride--he still rallied strong and only lost by a half a length. The extra distance here should suit him fine, as his dam side breeding indicates that he's bred to run all day. The only real knock on him is that he seems to win by having an explosive "kick" when it matters, which is how you win turf races. But it's usually not how you win the Belmont; grinders and even-paced horses usually fare better.

Still, talent is talent. This guy's the fastest horse, is training well, and still has room to improve: this is only his 7th start! We think he sits a mid-pack trip off a moderate pace, pulls into close contention at the top of the stretch and wins going away. If you can get 2-1 on him, it's a good play.

Belmont Day Selections

We would like to once again basket in giving out a cold $350 triple on Derby day. Because Belmont Day is one of our favorites all year, we'll give a quick-hit picks of all the stakes races on the undercard. Blind squirrels and acorns, of course.

Acorn: 1. Turbulent Descent 2. Her Smile 3. Savvy Supreme
True North: 1. Rule by Night 2. Trappe Shot 3. D'Funnybone
Woody Stephens: 1. Little Drama 2. Arch Traveler 3. Bold Warrior
Just a Game: 1. Aviate 2. Gypsy's Warning 3. Cherokee Queen
Manhattan: 1. Gio Ponti 2. Bim Bam 3. Viscount Nelson
Belmont: 1. Animal Kingdom 2. Santiva 3. Monzon

Good luck and enjoy the day!

Transactions Analysis: First Trimester Review

2011-06-07T10:23:00.006-04:00

Between work, horse racing, soccer, travel, work, personal life and work, we've been way behind in getting to our latest TA's. Actually, that's only half true: Teddy put together his half of a pretty good TA about 3 weeks ago, and then somehow, 70% of his commentary disappeared from the draft post. Too bad--it was a good one.

Given the enormity of the transactions and the fact that they're actually not a particularly interesting set of transactions, we've decided to take a different approach for this TA. We'll take a look at all the teams at the one-third mark of the the season, and highlight some of their more notable transactions in the process. Given that no team is actually out of the running for the money yet, this might actually be more interesting. How's that for a plan, Sir Theodore? (El Angelo)

It will have to do. For the record, the Lost Post was another of our patented comparison TAs. In honor of the then-breaking news of Osama bin Laden's passing due to acute cranial ventilation at the hands of the Navy SEALs, we intially wanted to compare owners and teams to famous Navy SEALs. But, knowing most of the owners, comparisons to Navy SEALs seemed inapt. Thus, we instead ended up comparing owners and teams to various species of actual seals. It was pretty awesomely stupid. Alack. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

Notable additions: Matt Thornton, RP, Chicago (AL)
Notable releases: Ryan Franklin, RP, St. Louis
Notable trade: Acquired Gio Gonzalez (SP, Oakland) from Rancho Carne Toros for Sean Burnett (RP, Washington), Jason Motte (RP, St. Louis) and Kyle Drabek (SP, Toronto)

In Tucker We Trust. I won't pick on him for starting Miguel Olivo after drafting Geo Soto with the 7th pick, and have every bit of confidence that this team will sneak its way up to 5th or 6th between others tanking and some solid pickups in the 2nd half of the year. But when his most notable transactions are trading for a 4th starter and picking up and dropping deposed closers, you can see why we weren't enthusiastic about writing a TA for a month. (El Angelo)

I like Gio G more than that, and think that Tucker managed to acquire him for the figurative bag of beans--two non-closers and the evolutionary Rick Porcello aren't much to give away. And while I agree that this team usually rises down the stretch, the ominous presence of six middle infielders on the roster gives a pretty good sense of the scope of the holes the team is facing. (Teddy)

Paging Dr. Rumack

Notable additions: Arthur Rhodes, RP, Texas
Notable releases: Chris Ray, SP, Seattle

Transaction-wise, this is not a particularly interesting team. Since the season started, they've added 7 players and dropped 4, none of which are much above replacement level. We only include Ray because of comedic value, and picked Rhodes as the "notable addition" because at least he's recorded a save.

Standings-wise, this team has been riding 5 pitchers (Lester, Cain, Halladay, Kuroda and Cahill) for 60% of their points in starting pitching categories. But I wonder how tenable this is when the team is third-to-last in strikeouts, which is probably the best indicia of pitching long-term. Given that the team's offense is still MIA and is unlikely to improve with the unfortunate shredding of Buster Posey's legs, look for these guys to start trading off for 2012 soon. (El Angelo)

I don't pay much attention to the west coast games, but based on Brian Sabean's comments after the injury, I take it that those same Dodger fans who comatized a Giants fan on in April somehow traveled to SF, jumped the fence, and beat Posey with a length of anchor chain. Which is a tragedy, modern society, kids these days, etc., etc.

As for the pitchers, I think that's a good enough group where it's as likely that the peripherals rebound as it is that the results regress to the level of the current peripherals. The real problem is in the OF, where Ichiro/Adam Jones/Carl Crawford/Carlos Lee have formed a perfect storm of too-good-to-cut, too-bad-to-play guys so far this year. Jones and Crawford might get better, but Ichiro and Lee will just get older. (Teddy)

Jeters Never Prosper

Notable additions: Jeff Francouer, OF, Kansas City
Notable releases: Mitchell Boggs, RP, St. Louis; Evan Meek, RP, Pittsburgh; Scott Rolen, 3B, Cincy

This team has the fewest points on offense (12 out of a possible 60, 5 of which you get for having a pulse). This team also has Jeff Francouer and Derek Jeter. Coincidence? (El Angelo)

...and Aramis Ramirez and Nick Markakis and holy shit. This season's injury collapse of the Joe Mauer/Justin Morneau axis in Minny has just killed these guys. The only ray of sunshine is that the team doesn't have a lot of high-slot guys, so they could bring the core back healthy next year and try again rather than burn the place down. The owner is experiencing the boredom and depression of following the exploits of a bad fantasy offense in a year where offense is already down a lot in MLB (as opposed to me, who is experiencing the anger and frustration of following a bad fantasy pitching staff in the Year of the Pitcher). If I was this owner, I'd set my alarm for March. (Teddy)

Cosmic Douchery

Notable additions: Jordan Schaefer, OF Atlanta
Notable releases: Luke Scott, Flat Earther, Baltimore

Well, they've officially said they're giving up. Too soon? They're part of a 5-team scrum that's fighting for 8th place, and next year's draft probably includes Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Braun. I get the desire to start sinking. Which is why the Schaefer pickup strikes me as a good move. (El Angelo)

I still like their roster a fair bit, but at a certain point you have to acknowledge the facts on the ground. There are a lot of bodies to step over between where they are and the money (Teddy)

Wu Tang Financial

Notable additions: Aaron Crow, RP, Kansas City; Scott Rolen, 3B, Cincy
Notable releases: Daric Barton, 1B Oakland; Toriiii Hunter, OF, Anaheim; Rolen

Currently in DAFL--as predicted by the league as a whole--this is arguably the best worst team the league's had in a while, as they're over the 50 point marker. Now true, time last year, this squad was also in last with 45 points, so it's not a huge difference, but there are actually some signs of sentient life here, as the squad's strengths and weaknesses are apparent. 20/24 points in the "power" categories (HR & RBI) versus 7.5/36 points in the other offensive categories shows that the team needs a couple of non-Dave Kimgmans. The pitching's a bit more of a motley mess, thanks to having one active closer and making Phil Humber a starter--apparently the owner can't let go of his Rice fandom--but there's the makings of a real team here.

Also as a side note, Scott Rolen is an unexpected contender for the Pewter Parachute Award. (El Angelo)

WTF! Shitty pitcher roll call! Paul Maholm! Jesse Litsch! Aaron Crooooooooooooooow!

I've been waiting for Crow to make the bigs and get picked up so that I could make that joke. I should really just relax. [la la-la] (Teddy)

More Fish For Kunta

Notable addition: Bartolo Colon, SP, New York (AL)
Notable release: Kila Ka'hilue, 1B, Kansas City

I had a difficult time picking out the most notable addition on Teddy's roster, because the vast majority of the guys he picked up (Tom Gorzellany, Chase Headley, Hank Conger) were soon released thereafter. But you know who wasn't? A large-breasted DNA-therapy laden starter for the first place team in the American League East. I knew your Yankee ban was going to end at some point, Teddy, but I didn't think it'd be with Bartolo F'ing Colon. (El Angelo)

I came into the year worried that my offense would be dragged down by black holes at C, 1B, and 2B. Instead, Lance Berkman and OBP-league All Star Chris Ianetta have turned two of those potential holes into strengths (and I have hope that newly 2B-eligible OF Allen Craig and injury returnee Tsuyoshi Nishioka will plug the third). I also came into the season confident that I had two aces in Cole Hamels and Ubaldo, and two solid second-tier guys in Jon Sanchez and Chad Billinsgley. Instead, Ubaldo has been terrible, Sanchez and Billingsley have been more 4th-tier than 2d-, and every non-Frankenstein SP I've tried to plug in has failed hilariously. Thus the pickup of Frankenstein. I'm not happy about it at any level. (Teddy)

Chicago Residents

Notable additions: Jonathan Herrera, IF, Colorado
Notable releases: Hong-Chi Kuo, RP, Los Angeles

Herrera is notable because (a) Corey picked him up after dropping him 3 weeks earlier, and (b) he's the only pickup this team made that was for someone other than a reliever or an outfielder. You'd think that would indicate that the team's starters and infielders were kicking ass and taking names. The former is true. The latter should be, what with Justin Smoak, Starlin Castro and Brian McCann having good seasons, but somehow this team's offense stinks. Chalk it up to a below average outfield, in part, but this strikes me as a team that's potentially dangerous down the stretch. The talent's here. (El Angelo)

Another 3 weeks of Martin Prado in place of David Wright at 3B is unlikely to help, though. The Wright injury and the injury to Josh Johnson are really going to determine the shape of this team's future--if they get back right on time, there should still be enough season left for a push. Any more setbacks, and it's button-pushing time. (Teddy)

anthony weiner has pretty feet

Notable additions: Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado; Yuniel Escobar, SS, Atlanta (twice)
Notable releases: Sam Fuld, OF, Tampa; Yuniel Escobar (twice)

I can't figure out whether it's good or bad to be in 4th place with 69 points, and fewer than 20 points out of the lead with a couple of obvious places for improvement (closer, rotation depth). That strikes me as a cocktease between contention and insignificance, and potentially quite dangerous if handled poorly. Thankfully, this team is in the competent stewardship of a member of the Federal Reserve. (El Angelo)

At the risk of disclosing confidential information, I will reveal that this owner and I have been trying in good faith to consummate a trade for about 6 weeks, and have been unable to do so because we can't figure out who should be going all in and who should be selling off. I think we've each changed our minds two or three times. We might decide to just swap fifth round picks in 2013 and call it a day. (Teddy)

The Little Green One

Notable additions: Raul Ibanez, OF, Philly. No really, that's the best player he added.
Notable releases: Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego; Carlos Pena, 1B, Chicago (NL)
Notable trade: Traded John Buck, C, Florida and Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit and their 3rd round pick in 2012 to Kicked in the Nuts for Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis and Brian Fuentes, RP, Anaheim and their 8th round pick in 2012.

I'll let Teddy address the trade below. Instead, I'll note that we need to come up with a category for guys like Chase Headley, who are young and tantalizing that almost everyone takes a shot at them, only to realize they're at best replacement level or are in the majors for attributes that don't translate into the fantasy world. Usually they just end up sucking and washing out of the league. Anyone remember Connor Jackson? Carlos Gomez? I'm sure we can come up with a few more in the comments. (El Angelo)

Howie Kendrick leaps to mind, though he's actually killing it so far this year.

The trade? Well, that was pretty fucking weird. The team currently in third traded off a high-slot guy and a closer for a mid-tier catcher, a lottery ticket, and a future pick. The team currently in fifth place (and at the time I believe even lower than that) took on the slots and gave up the lottery ticket. And it worked! Everybody involved is somehow better! Given that, I guess it's hard to find fault. (Teddy)

Kicked in the Nuts

Notable additions: Torii Hunter, OF, Anaheim; Kenley Janssen, RP, Los Angeles
Notable releases: Ryan Raburn, 2B, Detroit
Notable trade: Traded Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis and Brian Fuentes, RP, Anaheim and their 8th round pick in 2010 to The Little Green One for Austin Jackson, John Buck, and their 3rd round pick in 2010.

And with that Will replenishes the 3rd rounder that he traded away pre-draft to Corey, leaving him only down a #1 for next year. It's so odd to see Gaynor trade for draft picks that I'm perplexed and will just note that it's good to see Torii back where he belongs. Some guys just belong with certain fantasy owners, like Jeter/Jake, Paps/Teddy, and Shane Reynolds/Dave. (El Angelo)

I know that I said above the the trade seems to be working, and I meant it--there's no arguing with a spot on the board as of June 1. That said, I like the trade better for the Greenies than for these guys. Jackson has been poor this year, and Buck's one skill (power) is minimized by his new home ballpark. Put it this way: I could have offered Da Nutz with Dexter Fowler and Jonathan Lucroy in place of Jackson and Buck, and thus far KitN would have come out better if they had made that trade instead. (Teddy)

Rancho Carne Toros

Notable additions: Wilson Betemit, 2B, Kansas City
Notable releases: Derek Holland, SP, Texas
Notable trade: Traded Gio Gonzalez, SP, Oakland and Jake McGee, RP, Durham to Le Dupont Torkies for Kyle Drabek, SP, Toronto, Jason Motte, RP, St. Louis and Sean Burnett, RP, Washington

The paucity of available talent on the waiver wire is exhibited by the fact that despite having a couple of clear needs on my team (a closer, a starter who doesn't walk the park, and a guy who gets on base and plays in the infield) and clearly being a contender this year, I picked up absolutely nothing of note over the last two months. My newest strategy is to wait for you guys to start dumping players or for Hanley Ramirez to get healthy and start hitting. No rush, Han-Ram. (El Angelo)

I actually really like the Wilson Betemit snag--he's been lighting it up for about a year now. Of course, he's also only a spot starter, and might lose his job to Moose Tacos soon. But given what there is to work with at 2B, it's not a bad solution. (Teddy)

The Spam Avengers

Notable additions: Jack Hannahan, Pederast, Cleveland, twice
Notable releases: Jack Hannahan, Pederast, Cleveland, twice

We've never had a wire-to-wire winner in the league. Given the weaknesses of the prior 11 teams we've seen, this guy's currently 2-5 to pull it off. (El Angelo)

This is really dull to admit, but...yep. (Teddy)

2011 Preakness Preview

2011-05-19T18:00:00.000-04:00

(We promise, fantasy posts soon.)

The most amazing thing about this year's Kentucky Derby isn't the pace, winner, or order of finish. It was that the race was cleanly run. No horse had a poor or severely compromised trip--remarkable for a field of 19 developing 3-year olds. While the pace was slower than expected, that only helped horses stay out of trouble, as there were no tiring horses to avoid.

Can we expect more of the same in the Preakness? Probably not. Let's count down the field from worst to best.

In a Word, No

14. Isn't He Perfect. If this guy wins, we will believe that May 21 is in fact the day of the rapture and say our final novenas. We're not worried.

13. Flashpoint. Fast as all hell out of the gate, he's bred up and down to be a wonderful sprinter, and proved that by dominating the 7 furlong Hutchenson. Now he comes in off a fading finish in the Florida Derby to try 1 3/16 miles. The Racing Form's commenter says it perfectly: "perhaps he could get nine furlongs under the right circumstances." This is longer and is not the right circumstances.

12. Norman Asbjornson. In his third career start, a Pennsylvania state-bred maiden race, he ran 9th of 11, posting a 24 Gowanus Speed Figure. Thankfully, he's improved a little since then. Note that I didn't say that he's improved a lot.

11. Concealed Identity. Is blind in one eye and a gelding--i.e., had his genitals intentionally cut off. This horse has been through enough trauma that losing badly to horses with twice his talent will seem like a picnic.

10. King Congie. In his two dirt starts, he's lost by a combined 31 1/2 lengths. Given that he just finished behind Brilliant Speed and Twinspired, who did absolutely nothing in the Derby, we're struggling to see any appeal, outside of the story of the late man he's named after will be fodder for NBC's maudlin pre-race telecast.

Keep Trying, Keep Failing

9. Astrology. Every year there are a few horses that are consistently bet hard despite having not much of a record to justify it. This year, one of them is Astrology. While it's true that he's never been out of the money, he's only one race that's even remotely fast, and that was over the slop. Much of the appeal for this guy was his good record at Churchill Downs, but that's meaningless here. And in his last 3 races, he's lost to Santiva and Twice the Appeal, two horses that made little impact in the Derby. It's hard to see why we should think he'll improve enough to contend here, especially when he'll be bet to 10-1 or so.

8. Sway Away. Some will try to make a case for this guy because he has one of the fastest GSF's in the race (his San Vincente) and it's arguable that he got a bad ride in the Arkansas Derby, where he made a somewhat premature move. Whatever. This guy hasn't won since his first race last June and ran his worst two races around two turns. We think he's a 1-turn closing sprinter and will eventually make an impact. In the King's Bishop in August.

Bad Investments

7. Midnight Interlude. Well, there's always the Louis Quatorze phenomenon. But it's hard to see why we should like this guy on Saturday when he completely no-showed in Louisville. He had a perfect trip. He didn't have any traffic trouble. And when called on for more, he stopped running. Now yes, any horse that's only run 5 times is eligible for improvement in his sixth start. But the Baffert factor alone is going to make this guy around 8-1. His actual chances of winning are far, far lower than 12%, and he's a horrible value play.

6. Dance City. Along with Astrology, here's the other "wiseguy" horse that didn't run in the Derby. We suppose there are some things to like, given that he was only a length and change behind Nehro in the Arkansas Derby, and Nehro ran a bang-up second in the Kentucky Derby. But we're still unconvinced. His sire (City Zip) is a crackerjack sprinter and this guy has always gone right to the front. We think he does so again here, and gets fried dueling with...

5. Shackleford. He's probably going to be the 3rd choice in the race, on the theory that the slightly shorter distance will help him. But let's take a step back and examine his last two races. He ran 2nd in the Florida Derby because nobody else broke well and he was left alone on the lead, which allowed him to be a contender for 8 1/2 furlongs. In the Kentucky Derby, he made the lead again, but somehow slowed the pace down to the slowest pace we've seen in over 40 years. Even with that perfect a trip, he had nothing left in the final furlong. So yes, he's got a right to improve, but he's probably not going to get as soft a pace this time around, and he certainly isn't going to sit chilly--he's going to the front. With some legit speed types in the race (Flashpoint, Dance City), we don't see how he gets away with another slow pace, and in the end, think he's closer to the back of the pack at the end.

Contenders

4. Dialed In. If Animal Kingdom wins this race, he'll take home $600,000 (60% of the purse). If this guy wins, he'll take him $6.1 million. Really? Well, yes. In arguably the dumbest promotion ever, Frank Stronach's parent company, Magna--which owns Pimlico, Santa Anita and Gulfstream--put together a series where winning the Holy Bull, Florida Derby and Preakness will give you a $5.5 million bonus.

This bonus makes absolutely no sense. It didn't add to the quality of the field of any of the three races. It didn't bring any fans out to the track. It did nothing besides make one horse--Dialed In--more likely to run in the Preakness for a bonus that's completely out of whack with his talent. If he wins the Preakness, he will be one of the 10-highest earning horses of all time.

Magna, you want to do something useful? Take 20% of this bonus money and add it to the Preakness purse. We see owners skipping the Preakness every year, saying it's too soon to run after the Derby. Add a million to the purse, bringing it in line with the Derby, and let's see how many horses stay away.

(steps off soapbox)

As to Dialed In's chances, he certainly has a shot to hit the board but the Derby did nothing to change our belief that he's at heart a sprinter best suited for 1-turn races. Yeah, he closed like a shot into a slow pace. Big deal. The Derby was run akin to a turf race--extremely slow at first, then a dash to the finish. The fact that he's in Secretariat's league with final times is meaningless. Put Big Brown, Silver Charm, hell, even Monarchos in this year's Derby, and they too would have had a sub-48 second closing half mile.

Given the quicker pace scenario and the lack of horses that seem classy enough, we can't say you should leave him off your triples and superfectas. But to win? At 3-1? We're not seeing it.

3. Mucho Macho Man. "Honest" is the best word we can use to describe this guy. He's never run a bad race, generally finds himself just off the lead and in contention at the top of the stretch, but never seems to win the big one. It was evident in Kentucky that this guy has a little maturing to do--he didn't change leads in the stretch and remember, he's a June foal--but will probably be around late. But he had every right to take on Animal Kingdom and wasn't really close at the end. We see no reason he'll turn the tables, but also see no reason that he won't be in the superfecta.

2. Mr. Commons. We know we just bashed Midnight Interlude, who this guy lost to in his last race. So how are we backing him as a contender to hit the board? Four reasons:

Trust the connections. John Shirreffs is notoriously patient, as he proved with Zenyatta. They wouldn't be here if they didn't think the horse was fit and ready.

Tactical speed. We're less interested in a dead closer, as discussed above. This guy is a stalker, which should fit perfectly with the pace scenario.

Strong workouts. This guy's workout line looks like he's sitting on a good race, having followed up a decent showing in the Santa Anita Derby with a bullet workout, then two strong 7-furlong drills. The trainer looks to be getting him fit for the race and the horse looks like he's responding.

Price. You tell me who's more interesting: Midnight Interlude at 8-1 or this guy at 30-1. Thought so.

The Pick

1. Animal Kingdom. How ballsy of us to pick the Derby winner to repeat. But why not? There isn't a single horse in the Preakness that looks scary. Everyone in the Derby had a clean trip and got to run their race. (For Dialed In supporters who say he didn't, then why wasn't he closer to the pace? Nehro's a closer and he was appropriately placed near the front when Corey Nakatani figured out they were moving at a snail's pace.) There aren't any new shooters that look imposing like Red Bullet or Bernardini.

To bet against Animal Kingdom, you have to be betting that Dialed In, Midnight Interlude or Mucho Macho Man is going to take a huge step forward while Animal Kingdom regresses. We think that's very, very unlikely, and actually think that if you get 5-2 on him, you're getting a very square price.

How to Play the Race

As we said, we think Animal Kingdom is value in the win pool at 5-2 or better: his odds of winning are much better than 30%. The key to betting the race is beating the also-rans from the Derby. So key him over some of the price horses, because if Dialed In doesn't show up, it's wide open for the triples.

Good luck and enjoy the race!

Kentucky Derby Preview Part III: The Upper Echelon

2011-05-06T07:00:00.001-04:00

Maybe it's an odd year/even year thing like Bret Saberhagen performances.

This is the fifth year we're previewing the Derby and posting our picks. Though we've made 4 picks to date and liked every horse we've picked, we were really brimming with confidence in 2 of them. We loved Street Sense in 2007, he won won easily. We loved I Want Revenge in 2009, who we maintain would have won had he not been injured and scratched that morning. By contrast, in 2008 we knew it was a crapshoot after Big Brown, and the early scratch of Eskendereya left us with Awesome Act in 2010.

This year, while everyone's saying the race is wide-open and to look for chaos, we think a horse looks primed to run big on Saturday and establish himself as the leader of the crop. Let's count down those remaining.

Why Should I Like You?

8. Stay Thirsty. A horse with a great name--we suspect that the name alone will make him 12-1, regardless of merits--good breeding and the Pletcher connection should grab your undivided attention. But his past performances suggest otherwise. His only win of note was in the Gotham, where he tepidly beat a horse that was 47-1 and nowhere to be found in the Wood. He followed that up with a complete no-show in the Florida Derby. Pletcher and Mike Repole have always treated this horse as Plan B. You should too, and ignore him.

7. Midnight Interlude. It sounds good to be the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, but is that really that big a deal? Let's take a look at the prep races for the 33 horses that finished in the money in the last 11 Kentucky Derbies (2000 forward):

Blue Grass: 7 (Invisible Ink, Peace Rules, Lion Heart, Closing Argument, Bluegrass Cat, Street Sense, Paddy O'Prado)
Arkansas Derby: 6 (Impeachment, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Steppenwolfer, Curlin, Super Saver)
Wood Memorial: 6 (Fusaichi Pegasus, Aptitude, Monarchos, Conagree, Funny Cide, Empire Maker)
Florida Derby: 3 (Barbaro, Big Brown, Ice Box)
Santa Anita Derby: 3 (Imperialism, Giacomo, Pioneerofthenile)
Illinois Derby: 3 (War Emblem, Denis of Cork, Musket Man)
Ashland: 1 (Eight Belles)
Spiral: 1 (Perfect Drift)
Sunland Derby: 1 (Mine That Bird)
Louisiana Derby: 1 (Hard Spun)
Lexington: 1 (Proud Citizen)

So yes, while the Santa Anita Derby has not become a completely irrelevant race, it's no longer assumed that the winner is a key player in the Kentucky Derby. And when your winner is a horse that has started 4 times, never ran as a 2-year old and had to use the entire stretch to beat the distance-challenged Comma at the Top...we're not that interested.

6. Uncle Mo. Before we get to this guy's merits, let's also note that while the Wood Memorial looks like a productive prep, there hasn't been a horse that finished in the money from the Wood since 2003. Which is fairly amazing. Now we acknowledge there's been some bad luck involved--the last two winners, I Want Revenge and Eskendereya, were injured right before the Derby and would have been favorites in both races--but it can't be coincidence that the Wood has decreased in its prolific nature as the producer of Derby contenders when the Florida Derby became an actual Derby prep.

On to last year's 2 year old champion. It's a little hard to get a read on a horse that was one of the most dominant two year olds we've seen in a while, then comes back to look like he still has the latent talent but bomb in the prep race with an illness. Then a decent (but not perfect) parallel came to mind: Unbridled's Song.

Unbridled's Song won the BC Juvenile in his 3rd start--the only horse besides Uncle Mo to pull off the feat. He went to Florida for his 3yo winter, where he lost to the horrible Built for Pleasure in the Fountain of Youth, before winning the Florida Derby (impressively and over some pretty good horses) and then shipped up to NY for the Wood. He beat all comers that day--which constituted 6 bad horses--but in the process split his hoof open and had a quartercrack. Now we had a horse that people were questioning his distance ability, health, and was temperamental to boot. He was made a tepid Derby favorite, ran strongly for 8 1/2 furlongs, then faded in the stretch to finish 5th.

Uncle Mo has a shorter profile than Unbridled's Song, and there's a little less of a circus around him this year than there was with U's Song, who was owned by the irascible Ernie Paragallo. But here again, you have a phenom that may or may not have taken a step forward as a 3 year old, has some health issues, isn't really bred for the distance, and is a committed front runner. If he's the next Seattle Slew or Spectacular Bid, maybe he can pull it off. Chances are, he's the next Pulpit, and he'll fade at the top of the stretch.

[UPDATE: Uncle Mo is scratched, which is not great from those looking to make a buck off the race, but confirms our skepticism.]

Everyone's Favorites

5. Dialed In. The favorite by default, Nick Zito's charge is a dead closer in a race with a fair amount of speed and good distance breeding who just won the Florida Derby. Doesn't this sound familiar? Well...yes. That was Ice Box's pedigree last year, and he ran a tough-luck second in the Derby. Still, we're bit more bearish on this guy than we were on Ice Box (who, you'll note, we didn't love either). Ice Box had a good foundation for the race (7 starts), this guy doesn't (4 starts). Ice Box ran a nice GSF around 2 turns, this guy hasn't. And this guy labored to get past a middling horse (Shackleford) in a Florida Derby that completely fell apart. Why should we take 4-1 on that?

4. Nehro. Pointless prediction: this guy is going to be the second choice in the race. Not juvenile champ Uncle Mo. Not the horse that beat him last out and has the highest speed figure in the race. No, it's going to be a horse that's won one race in his career, has never raced outside of Louisiana and Arkansas, and lost his first start of the season by 24 lengths.

Why all the love? Because he's finished like a shot in his last two races and is trained by Steve Asmussen of Curlin/Rachel Alexandra fame. After running a fairly uninspired 4th in his debut, this guy was 5-2 in his next try in a maiden race and ran next to last, losing by a football field to uninteresting horses. Apparently though a light switch flicked on in that race, because he then won his maiden going away, was a fast-closing second to Pants on Fire in the Louisiana Derby (at 36-1) and then ran a game second in the Arkansas Derby, again falling short by a neck. He's clearly on the improve, has the right type of tactical/closing speed that we like to see, and is impeccably bred for the distance.

But still...we can't get past the fact that this guy has only one win in his career. The only horse that we can think of that won the Derby with only 1 victory was Giacomo, and at least on him, you were being compensated to the tune of 50-1. This guy is going to be 6-1.

Yeah, he has excuses in his last two races. Is it now going to get any easier when there are 19 other horses in the field? We think not. We like him to run fairly well and maybe complete a triple/superfecta, but not get his picture taken in the winner's circle.

Contenders (Maybe at a Price)

3. Santiva. I feel like we say this every year, but it's because it's an angle that hits every once in a while: if you're looking for a price in the Derby, especially in exactas, triples and supers, look for horses that were highly regarded before their final prep, ran poorly with an obvious excuse, and now look like they have a shot to do damage. These horses rarely win--Thunder Gulch in 1995 was the only recent example of a winner. But every few years, they do hit the board. Recent examples are Denis of Cork (3rd at 27-1 in 2008), Bluegrass Cat (2nd at 30-1 in 2006), and Invisible Ink (2nd at 55-1 in 2001).

This year, the example is Santiva, who should be at least 25-1 on Saturday. Impeccably bred--by Giant's Causeway out of a mare by Smarten--this guy was a highly thought of two year old when he won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, the same race won by Super Saver in 2009. Freshened a little over the winter by not-bad trainer Eddie Kennally, he ran a strong second in the Risen Star off a layoff where he was wide on both turns and may have needed a race. He utterly flopped in his last race, on synthetics in the Blue Grass, where he had a horrible trip and probably didn't love the surface. Now he's working up a storm and may be primed third off a layoff to run big. It's a little tough to put him on top--there's a reason that a sharp prep race is a must for the Derby--but as a bomb to complete your exotics? We like him a lot.

2. Mucho Macho Man. If you're going the sympathy route, this is the answer, as he's trained by Kathy Ritvo, who survived a heart transplant three years ago and is now training a Derby starter. We're not often moved by human interest stories, but this one is pretty good.

As to the horse's merits, he's a hard-knocker who's only been out of the money once in his 8-race career, and that was when he was slammed leaving the gate in the Holy Bull. Since then, he won the Risen Star pretty handily and ran a decent third in the Louisiana Derby, especially considering he ran the entire race after throwing a horseshoe out of the gate.

The one thing we don't like is the 6-week layoff coming into the Derby--that hasn't helped horses like Read the Footnotes, Hard Spun, and Circular Quay in the past. And as consistent as he is, he seems to lack the "wow" factor that most Derby winners have. It's rare that a grinder/hard-knocker wins the Derby; the best recent examples that we can think of are Giacomo, who at least was 50-1, and maybe Funny Cide, who had at least shown in his prep that he could run really fast. We haven't gotten that feeling with this guy yet, and think he'll settle for a minor award.

The Pick

1. Archarcharch. Sometimes we overthink the Derby. Let's go through this horse's attributes as they relate to the Race.

Foundation. Ran twice as a two year old and 4 times this year. As a minor bonus, he even has a race over the track (his first start).

Starts this year. He had a bad start in January when he had to run through a pea soup fog. Since then, he had a solid win in the Southwest, a better-than-it-looked 3rd in the Rebel, and then an impressive come from behind victory in the Arkansas Derby. He's had a pretty solid prep campaign.

Speed. He has the highest last out GSF and ran the fastest prep race. Somehow, nobody is talking about this.

Running style. Closer, not a dead closer, and showed in the Arkansas Derby he can make a big move on the turn, which is what wins the Kentucky Derby. Absolutely perfect.

Breeding. His sire, Arch, is a blue-blood sire for the distance and his dam is out of Woodman, providing a nice balance on the other side. No issues here.

The biggest "issue" with this guy--besides drawing the rail, which we think is overrated given that he'll be closing anyway--is his connections: nobody is familiar with William Fires and Jon Court. Court is a hard-knocking jockey that had some air time in the TV show Jockeys who's never quite made it, but has never really had that good a horse. You know, like Stewart Elliott on Smarty Jones in 2004. And William Fires is an old-timer who's forgotten more about horses than we will ever know. (And for the NBC soft focus feature maker, he's Court's father-in-law.)

So it's not like these guys are novices. This is just the first "big" horse they've had. And he's probably the best horse they've ever had. We think he sits in the third tier of horses off a pretty solid pace, makes a big move on the turn for the lead and holds off a few closers who he had first run on, winning the Run for the Roses.

How to Play the Race

Don't get cute. The lowest price you're going to see on a horse is maybe 4-1 on Dialed In, and there's a chance he goes off at much higher odds than that. So if you like someone, bet him to win. If you think a few horses have a shot, we recommend a 3 or 4 horse exacta box ($6 or $12 for a buck), and if you're right on the top 2 finishers, you'll do quite, quite well.

Good luck to all and enjoy the race!

Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The Derby Undercard

2011-05-05T20:00:00.001-04:00

Everyone in the mainstream media, horse racing media, blogosphere, and in the state of Kentucky spends countless time looking at the Derby, breaking down the races, looking for that goofy angle, or just enjoying the pageantry of the race. It's without a question the most over-analyzed race of the year.

What is also undisputed is that the most under-analyzed races of the year are those on the Derby undercard. Before the Run for the Roses, Churchill Downs hosts a veritable feast of good horse races, consisting of horses that are older, younger, male, female, on dirt, on dirt, and at myriad distances. It's a fun series of races that would make up a notable card without the presence of the Kentucky Derby.

More to the point: the same drunken throngs of 140,000 people at Churchill Downs that will be millions of dollars on Stay Thirsty because they like Dos Equis or bet their birthdays are also betting on these undercard races. It's a ton of uninformed money in the pool that inflates the odds for those who know racing and is there for the taking.

So as part of our duty to educate the public on horse racing in general and how to make money gambling, let's do a brief analysis of the undercard on Derby Day. Dazzle everyone at your party with your knowledge of the Woodford Reserve Turf Stakes, then demand that the bourbon they're using in the mint julep is actually Woodford Reserve.

Twin Spires Turf Sprint: 5 furlongs on the turf, 3yo and up.

Ah, turf sprints. Our old buddy Chamberlain Bridge of BC Turf Sprint fame is back on the track where he won the Breeders Cup, off a close-up 4th in the Shakertown. With the amount of speed in the race, we think he sits a perfect trip and takes it. We'll go against that obvious chalk for the other slots on the theory that they'll get fried in the early pace chase, and instead take shots underneath with Early Return, whose turf start three back was pretty good, and Bergerac, who is an insane 50-1 on the morning line for no discernible reason.

1st: Chamberlain Bridge 2nd: Early Return 3rd: Bergerac

Humana Distaff: Fillies and Mares, 7 furlongs on the dirt.

Historically, strange things happen in this race. Hall of Famer Azeri lost this race to the immortal Mayo on the Side in 2004. Heavy favorite Madcap Escapade lost to My Trusty Cat in 2005. Intangaroo sprung an upset and paid $30 in 2008. Mona de Monna knocked off Eclipse winner Informed Decision last year.

Given this, do you think we're going anywhere near Hilda's Passion, who's 6-5 on the morning line? Didn't think so. There looks like a fair amount of speed in the race, so we'll go with closer Evening Jewel, who likes the track, ran a nice 3rd in the BC Filly Sprint last year, and had a better-than-it-looked comeback in her last race. Amen Hallelujah has been working up a storm for the race and has been 2nd in 3 straight races. Make it 4.

1st: Evening Jewel 2nd: Amen Hallelujah 3rd: Hilda's Passion

Distaff Turf Mile: 1 mile on the turf for fillies and mares.

Simple theory: the Europeans are better at turf racing than we are. There's three ex-pats from across the pond here: Aruna, who's done nothing wrong for Graham Motion and Flaxman Stables in her three starts so far, and may be something good; Fantasia, who knocked around in the division for Jonathan Sheppard last year with decent results; and Aviate, a beautifully bred Juddmonte horse who just missed 2nd in her first start here in March. Their main competition is Never Retreat, who we're not wild about in the 11 post and stepping up a little in class here. Euros take the triple.

1st: Aviate 2nd: Aruna 3rd: Fantasia

Churchill Downs Handicap: 7 furlongs on dirt, 3yo and up

The best sprint race we're going to see for a while. A good friend of the blog repeatedly has said that there's no bigger difference in racing than 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs, and he's 100% right. We like to look for distance specialists at this trip, and lo and behold, Capt. Candyman Can is a perfect 5-for-5 at the distance and should be on the improve after recovering from a serious injury. The others who perpetually fire at the distance are Smiling Tiger and Here Comes Ben, and we'll lean towards the former because he's run recently.

1st: Capt. Candyman Can 2nd: Smiling Tiger 3rd: Here Comes Ben

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic: 1 1/8 miles on the turf, 3yo and up

Arguably the best race on the card, including the Kentucky Derby. We think the distance is too short for Prince Will I Am and Al Khali, and too long for miler Little Mike and speedster Get Stormy. But it looks just right for Doubles Partner, who's perfect at the distance and at Churchill Downs for Todd Pletcher, and exits an excellent performance at Tampa. We think he'll sit off a real pace and come flying late, once again beating Rahystrada. For the show slot, it's tough to argue with the excellent form that Expansion is in with two stellar starts at the distance, even with the 14 post.

1. Doubles Partner 2. Rahystrada 3. Expansion

Kentucky Derby Preview Part I: The Pretenders

2011-05-05T08:00:00.010-04:00

The field has been entered, the post positions drawn, the jockeys assigned, and the horses have had their final workouts. Yes that's right, it's time to break down the field for the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

Here's the refrain you're going to hear over, and over, and over again this year: this Derby is wide open. And there's a fair amount of truth to that assessment. No horse ran a Gowanus Speed Figure (GSF) over 100 in a prep race. All the favorites in the final Derby preps lost. Everyone's favorite, Uncle Mo, ran horribly in his final race. While there's a pretty clear favorite for the race (Dialed In), everyone thinks that pretty much anyone can win it.

We see their point but respectfully disagree. Of the 20 horses entered, several don't belong at all (yes, I know we said that about Mine That Bird too), several seem to be out of their element, and a few others aren't going to love the shape of the race. We do think that after that bottom sector of horses it's pretty wide open, but from a group of 8 horses, not all 20.

Programming note: today we're running our preview and analysis of the horses we think are the Derby Pretenders. Tomorrow morning we'll take a brief interlude to look at the other races being run on Derby Day, then tomorrow afternoon we'll post the rest of our Derby analysis, including our pick. This should get everyone set for their Derby parties and Pick Four bets.

Enough chatter. Let's get to the countdown.

Lacks the Class

20. Watch Me Go. There were 364 horses nominated to the Triple Crown this year, 20 of which were nominated by uber-trainer Todd Pletcher. Pletcher's cast of 20 includes horses everyone knew would be contenders like Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty. It includes some promising horses that didn't quite pan out, like Brethren and Sensational Slam. It also includes horses that had won nothing more than a maiden race and would be hard-pressed to come anywhere near a Triple Crown race, like Cal Nation and Achemenes. He even nominated Imhotep, who hasn't run a race yet. Suffice to say that if you were a Pletcher 3 year old that wasn't nominated to the Triple Crown, the stable did not think much of you.

What does this digression have to do with Watch Me Go? Well, after upsetting the Tampa Bay Derby at 43-1, this obscurely bred colt ran in the Illinois Derby, where he lost by 17 lengths to Joe Vann, a Pletcher horse that wasn't nominated for the Triple Crown. So I ask you: if this guy can't come within a zip code of a horse Todd Pletcher thinks shouldn't be within a mile of the Kentucky Derby, why should we believe he'll be competitive against 19 horses actually in the Derby?

19. Twice the Appeal. We learned our lesson in 2009 about doubting horses that come out of the Sunland Derby. But at least Mine That Bird had won a graded stakes before going to New Mexico and was bred for the distance. This guy's by fleet sprinter Successful Appeal, broken his maiden in a claiming race, and was spotted well to get graded takes earnings to get into the Derby. Given the horse he struggled to beat in the Sunland Derby (Astrology) was just thrashed in the Jerome, we're not sanguine about his chances, even with Calvin Borel aboard.

18. Decisive Moment. The most interesting thing about this guy is that his owner is Just For Fun Stable, which run by some guy named Ruben Sierra. It would be awesome if it were the ex-Yankee slugger; sadly, it appears to just be a breeder in Florida.

You're Running on the Wrong Surface

17. Twinspired. We've now had 4 years to see how horses emerge from synthetic preps to come into the Derby. What have been the results?

2007: Street Sense runs 2nd in the Bluegrass and wins the Derby, but it was clear to all from the BC Juvenile and Tampa Bay Derby that he was fit as a fiddle. Winner Dominican and close-up finishers Zanjero, Great Hunter and Teufelsberg do nothing in the Derby.

2008: SA Derby winner Colonel John does nothing in the Derby, neither do Monba, Cowboy Cal and Visionaire, the 1-2-5 finishers in the Bluegrass, nor Adriano, who won the Spiral.

2009: Bluegrass 1-2 finishers General Quarters and Hold Me Back are up the track in the Derby; SA Derby winner Pioneerofthenile runs a distant second while runner up Chocolate Candy does nothing.

2010: Bluegrass winner Stately Victor is up the track while runner up Paddy O'Prado runs a decent 3rd in the slop. Sidney's Candy wins the SA Derby but runs horribly in Kentucky, as does 3rd place finisher Lookin at Lucky, albeit with a horrible trip in Kentucky.

So none of the winners of the 8 prep races have won the Derby, and only one (Pioneerofthenile) ran in the money. Others that ran a useful prep have done better, as Street Sense won and Paddy O'Prado was a decent third, and Lookin at Lucky was as hard luck a 6th as you'll ever see.

Can we draw a conclusion from this? Sure. Street Sense really doesn't apply because everyone knew he was a beast on the dirt and his trainer just wanted to use the Bluegrass as a prep. The other three horses, though, all did well because they ran in the slop. And it's not odd for a turf horse to do well in the slop, and it wouldn't be a surprise if synthetic giants did well in the slop as well.

Which brings us back to the stupidly named Twinspired. This guy lost his only dirt start by only 11 1/2 lengths, flopped on the turf, but seems to be at home on the plastic. Sort of. He's only in because he lost a photo in the Bluegrass (in which he was 24-1) and it's his only start where he looked like a horse that belonged in a graded stakes race. He'll be a longshot on Saturday for a reason. Unless it rains.

16. Brilliant Speed. The horse that beat Twinspired by a nose, his dirt starts were even worse, as he ran GSF's of 40 and 32 while losing by a combined 40 1/4 lenghths. He's made himself useful on the grass and was a bit of a surprise in the Bluegrass, but probably should be running in the turf stakes on Friday afternoon.

15. Derby Kitten. Drew into the field at the last moment because Toby's Corner came down with an injury, this is a horse who's run a lot and never made a dent on the dirt. In his first 8 starts, he ran on the turf seven times, only finally breaking his maiden when he was dropped to a claiming race. He ran decent seconds in some overnight turf stakes in Florida, which prompted his connections to ship him to the Lexington, where he pulled off the upset and suddenly his connections became interested in the Derby. They should have been interested in the Hill Prince, as there is zero in this horse's pedigree, ability, or prior start on the dirt to indicate that he can be competitive here.

14. Animal Kingdom. While he's never been out of the exacta in four starts, his only dirt start was nothing to be proud of (an off the turf maiden race that was painfully slow), and was followed by 3 decent turf and synthetic stats. He's bred up and down as a grass horse, and his trainer, Graham Motion, has exhibited zero enthusiasm about running him. Which isn't surprising, because we can't muster much enthusiasm about seeing him run either.

13. Master of Hounds. It's such a wide-open year, why not take a shot with a European, right? Well sure, except this one isn't any good. It took him 4 starts to break his maiden on the grass, then he ran credibly in a Grade 1 in England last October, before flopping in the BC Juvy Turf. Aidan O'Brien started his year in Dubai's "Derby prep", where this colt ran a close second...wait for it...on a synthetic truck. Now he's coming to Kentucky. So we've got another horse bred up and down for turf who seems to be just taking a stab. Given that we've never seen a horse that's actually bred for the dirt ship from across the pond and do anything in the Derby, why should we just a horse that has never won above the maiden level and has never seen a dirt track?

Speed, Speed, Speed

12. Shackleford. It's unclear whether this horse is named after a quaint town in Surrey, England or a seafood and sushi restaurant in the middle of Virginia. Either way, he's here only because he was one of only two horses that decided to run when the gates opened in the Florida Derby, allowing him to hang on for second and earn enough graded stakes money to qualify for the Derby. This guy has "cheap speed" written all over him.

11. Comma to the Top. This horse would be an absolute hoot to own. He's run 13 times so far, has always been healthy, and is a front runner with a little more staying power than his breeding suggests, and will likely be knocking around in good sprint and mile races for a while. That said, he's a pretty intractable front-runner that carves out fast fractions and slows down considerably when the distance meter hits a mile. In fact, he's pretty clearly his the "stop" button in the stretch of his last two races. His connections once recognized this, saying before the Santa Anita Derby that he wasn't on the trail for the Kentucky Derby. They changed their mind after he was gasping for air at the end of the SA Derby and finished second. We haven't.

10. Soldat. Originally thought to be a turf horse, he ran a huge race in the slop at Gulfstream in January, followed by a strong win in the Fountain of Youth when he had his way on the lead. When he didn't make the lead in the Florida Derby, he was nowhere to be found, and his trainer noted that the horse didn't like getting mud kicked in his face. So chances are, to the front he'll go. Where he'll likely get fried and fade.

9. Pants on Fire. The one speed horse that we could see sticking around late if he gets a good trip. This guy won the Louisiana Derby last out in front-running fashion with a couple of caveats: the favorite threw a shoe and didn't run well, and the pace he set was fairly moderate. That said, he held of closing Nehro through the long Fairgrounds stretch and ran a new GSF top in the race. But we think this guy has "bounce" written all over him, and the presence of multiple other speed horses won't help his chances. And the Louisiana Derby was the only race (other than his maiden over a sloppy track) where he didn't fade late. There's a chance this guy has taken a step forward to the next level, but we're not buying it for now, and think he's out of the picture when the serious running begins.

Coming up tomorrow: the contenders, plus a look at the Derby undercard.

Playing the Rainbow Six

2011-04-22T15:00:00.001-04:00

Because we don't bet a ton of money when we go to the track, we're not big Pick Six players. For the uninitiated, here's a rundown of the Pick Six wager:

You have to pick the winners of six races in a row; ergo, the name.
Normally, the bet has a $2 minimum. This is the killer. Let's say you pick two horses every race in your sequence, meaning your ticket is "2x2x2x2x2x2". That ticket would cost you $128: 64 combinations at $2 each. And as you can guess, that does not give you a ton of coverage.
Most Pick Sixes take their kitty and split it into two portions: the 6/6 portion, and the "consolation portion". (Usually the split is 75/25 after the takeout.) If nobody picks 6 of 6, that portion "carries over" to the next day, while the consolation pool is always paid out to either 5 of 6 or if nobody did that well, 4 of 6.

What ends up happening in the Pick Six is that the pool builds, making it a positive expectation wager. For example, if $50,000 (after takeout) is in the kitty after the first day and nobody hits 6 of 6, $37,500 enters the pool on the next day. If another $200,000 is bet the following day (again, after takeout) and nobody hits again, the 75% from that pool is added to the previous day carryover, and we get a 2-day carryover of $187,500. This becomes free money in the pot for everyone who takes a shot on the third day, beats the takeout, and leads to inflated payouts.

The problem remains though: it's a tough wager if you're not heavily bankrolled. In a Pick Six sequence where there are 8 horses in every race, there are 262,144 combinations. Does your $128 with 64 combinations really stand a chance? Generally no. Which is why the Pick Six is usually for whales only.

Until Saturday at Gulfstream Park. This year, to try to raise the play of its Pick Six pool (which usually flags outside of California and NY), Gulfstream created the Rainbow Six. It's a Pick Six with three important changes:

The minimum wager is a dime. Yes, a dime.
The kitty is divided 60/40, with 60 percent payable every day to whoever picks the most right, be it 6/6, 5/6 or even 4/6.
The remaining 40% goes into a pool that only pays out when there is one winning Pick Six ticket. If there are zero or more than one, it carries over to the next day.

It is not easy to be the only person to hit the Pick Six. Usually, either a few people hit it or nobody does. And shockingly, the super pot in the Rainbow Six hasn't been hit too often, and hasn't been hit since February 16th, resulting in a carryover that as of this morning was over $1.3 million, and if nobody hits it on today (Friday), Saturday's pool should be over $1.4 million.

What makes Saturday important is the fact that it's the last day of the Gulfstream meet. (Technically Sunday is, but they've made Saturday the "last day" for Pick Six purposes because Sunday is Easter.) And by rule, the entire Pick Six pool must be dispersed on the last day. Which means that all of the $1.4 million plus whatever is bet on Saturday will be paid out on Saturday.

Now this is nothing new--seasoned horse players know to always pay attention to the last day of the meet to play the Pick Six because it's a payout day, and if there's a carryover, it will get extra attention. But the Rainbow Six is presenting a unique opportunity because there's $1.4 million already in the kitty and, most importantly, the minimum wager is a dime. Remember that hypothetical $128 ticket for taking two horses a race? That now costs $6.40. Hell, if you wanted to take 4 horses every race, that would cost $409.60. Under normal circumstances, that would run you over $8,100.

Also not hurting the cause is that every horse player in America is going to take a run at Saturday's Rainbow Six, meaning the final pool could be north of $4 million, a number we don't see unless it's the Breeders Cup. And also meaning that it's worth taking a run at it if you're a small player. If there are 15,000 winning tickets in a $4 million pool, each will be worth about $270. Why not take a shot for a small amount?

So let's take a brief discussion of the Rainbow Six and construct a Blog Ticket for under $100. We'll post the results on Sunday.

Race 7: Game On (8-5) is going to be on everyone's ticket, so he'll be on ours too. We'll take 3 more in this heat: Alice's Alex (12-1), who's going out for the first time with trainer Angel Medina; Marias Pass (4-1), who adds blinkers and looks to be about right at this level; and Rumbletown (10-1) who switches to the dirt for the first time. Choices: 3, 8, 10, 11

Race 8: Ah, turf sprint claimers, the bane of our existence. The key here we think is going against Nononthesamepage (3-1), who's going to be overbet based on his backclass and some great GSF's when he was a 2 year old on the dirt. No problem. Walt's Whiz (4-1) goes out for the hot Joe Orseno and has shown some affinity for the grass. Also hot are Peter Walder, who sends out Mipando (8-1) and David Fawkes, who has Wild Storm Cat (5-1) coming in off a long layoff. We can't see some of these longshots making noise, even in this bad a field. Choices: 3, 8, 9. (Note: if Mustang Island draws in, include him too.)

Race 9: A maiden special weight with tons of first time starters. We're willing to go two-deep here: heavy favorite Zero Rate Policy (8-5) and comebacker Christiesborntorun (5-1). Choices: 7, 9

Race 10: Performing (7-2) and Sovereign Crisis (4-1) strike us as bad favorites that you have to use in multi-race bets. So we'll go deep here, and include the foreign shipper Silver Rock (8-1), the fantastically named Duchess of Doom (20-1), potential lone speed More Is Better (10-1) and Ithinkihadthatone (6-1), who closed like a shot last time out. Choices: 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11

Race 11: Side with the hot trainers here: Nick Canani is winning 32% at the meet and saddles Hariolus (4-1), who should close late. We'll take him an Houngun (6-1), making his first start for Linda Rice after some ambitious placings last year. Choices: 2, 8

Race 12: A craptacular maiden claimer on the turf ends the sequence. In a race that has almost no early speed, we'll take a stab on Persistence (6-1), the stretching out Lotsa Noodles (20-1) and the almost intriguing Misia Luisa (5-1). Choices: 1, 3, 9

That ticket costs $86.40 and gets you 864 combinations. We'll be back on Sunday to see how we did.

Ranking the Triple Crown Winners, Part III

2011-04-15T21:55:00.001-04:00

In the fifteen year span that this survey covers, we've had 7 different horses win the Derby and Preakness, plus two more that won the Preakness and Belmont. (Oddly, nobody's pulled off the Derby-Belmont duo since Thunder Gulch in 1995.) Instinctively, you'd think these seven horses would be near the top of the list. After all, they won two of the three races that it takes to make up this list, and couldn't have been bad, right?

Well, we think that four of the seven were something less than spectacular. As we noted a couple of years ago, some Triple Crown bids were more accidental than anything else, be it weak competition, odd circumstances or what have you. And since we're looking at a horse's entire career, which includes the strength of the competition, latent ability of the horse, and total accomplishments, we think that a these guys don't stack up as well as others that follow.

Note that we're out of the realm of garbage here--each of the next four horses won an Eclipse Award. Heck, one of them won Horse of the Year. But when we get to our next post, honestly ask yourself if you'd take any of these four over the next 5 horses on the list. We say no.

Tier IV: The Less Good Dual-Classic Winners

23. War Emblem (2002 Derby and Preakness)
Other wins of note: Haskell (G1), Illinois Derby (G2)
Other placings of note: None.

The ultimate all-or-nothing horse: this guy ran 13 times, winning 7 times, and in his other 6 starts, finishing 7th, 5th, 6th, 8th, 5th, 8th. And when he lost, he generally was drilled: his losses were by a combined 68 1/2 lengths, and only one of them was by fewer than 4 lengths. He was a front-runner that if he broke well and had good tactical position, was extremely dangerous. If he didn't, then he was up the track.

Now yes, I'll concede that he won 4 graded stakes races, including 3 Grade 1's. Does that mean he deserves to be better than #23 on this list? Absolutely not. Let's look at those stakes wins:

Illinois Derby. He gets an uncontested lead through moderate fractions (48 1/5 half, 1:13 3/4 mile), and runs home like a loose-on-the-lead leader should. His only competition in this race was Repent, who had one race in 6 months and showed it.

Kentucky Derby. Dismissed by the entire free world at 20-1, he goes to the front in a lead that's never contested and has plenty left for the stretch. But let's note something--the track this day had ridiculous rail- and front-runner's biases. Possibly to offset the prior year's Derby track, which favored deep closers and produced times that would be rivaled at Ruidoso Downs, Churchill Downs for 2002 Derby Day was a front-runner's paradise. The first three finishers basically ran 1-2-3 the entire way around the track, and some pundits even noted afterwards that possibly the best horse was Medaglia d'Oro, who closed to run 4th.

Preakness. Is actually pressed on the lead this time but wins anyway because he gets a good trip (Victor Espinoza never got enough credit for the good work he did on this horse) and because his toughest competition is 45-1 shot Magic Weisner, who isn't any good. This was winning by default.

Haskell. Freshened off his drubbing in the Belmont, he breaks well and beats a field that includes Magic Weisner and nobody else. Again, no competition yields a victory.

Now yes, there is something to be said for having the early speed and stamina to win those races. But look what happened in his final two starts when he faced real competition: he was nowhere. His Pacific Classic was absolutely atrocious, as his fellow 3yo Came Home absolutely trounced him. And he was never a real factor in the Breeders Cup Classic.

You'd be hard-pressed to argue that this guy was the best 3-year old in his year: Came Home beat him easily in the Pacific Classic, Medaglia d'Oro beat him easily in the Belmont and Classic, and even Perfect Drift went on to have a useful (if frustrating) career. Even if he had returned for his 4 year old season--which he should have, given the fact that he was a useless sire, as he refused to have sex with the mares--we think he would not have fared well.

22. Charismatic (1999 Derby and Preakness)
Other wins of note: Lexington (G2)
Other placings of note: 3rd in Belmont (G1)

After the 1999 Santa Anita Derby, this guy was sporting a record of 2 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds in 13 starts. His wins were something of a joke: a win in a maiden claimer at Hollywood Park the prior November, and a win by disqualification in a claiming race that February at Santa Anita. In his 13 starts, he had never topped a 95 GSF, and looked like a hanger-on who had just clunked up for a non-threatening 4th in the SA Derby at 45-1.

We're not sure what happened next, but some switch flipped, because this guy went on an absolute tear after the Santa Anita Derby--he won the Lexington, Derby and Preakness in succession, at 12-1, 31-1 and 8-1 respectively, jumping 14 speed figure points and looking like an absolute house on fire. Was it getting off the Bute? Was it getting out of California? Who knows. But finally the horse's potential was realized and he became a Triple Crown contender entering the '99 Belmont, redeeming the troubled Chris Antley along the way.

We won't repeat what happened there--the injury mid-stretch, Antley jumping off the horse and holding his leg, retirement, Antley's later death, etc. That's been done 1000 times. We want to look at a serious question here: how the hell did this guy win Horse of the Year?

Charismatic finished 1999 with 10 starts--remarkable considering he didn't race after the Belmont--which included 4 wins and 3 other finishes in the money. The 4 wins were in a claiming race, the Lexington, Derby and Belmont. That's not a bad season...but that's the best anyone could do? Well, it was something of a goofy year. Here were the other options:

Daylami. Winner of the BC Turf in a romp, he also won 3 Grade 1 turf races in Europe and was probably the best horse to run this year. But he only had one start in America.

Silverbulletday. The dominant 3 year old filly of the year, we were never that impressed with her because she never ran against the best horses in her class (Excellent Meeting and Three Ring). Still, through the end of August, she had won 7 of 8 starts, including the Kentucky Oaks, Ashland and Alabama, with her only loss being an odd attempt to take on Charismatic in the Belmont Stakes. Her end of the year losses in the Beldame and BC Distaff probably doomed her campaign.

Artax. The champion sprinter who set 3 track records and won the BC Sprint in a romp. He also lost half a dozen times to proven mediocrities.

Soaring Softly. Now this is who we would have voted for. After being completely unsuccessful on dirt, trainer Jimmy Toner switched this filly to the grass, where she promptly won 7 of 8 starts, including the Sheepshead Bay, Flower Bowl, and BC Filly Turf. She was the most dominant performer of the American-based horses in her respective class by a lot--nobody was even close to her.

While it would have been a first, a filly turfer should have been HOTY in 1999. Because the voters couldn't see that is was an odd year, we ended up with the winner being a horse that didn't win a race after mid-May. Ridiculous.

21. Funny Cide (2003 Derby and Preakness)
Other wins of note: Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1); Excelsior, Dominion Day (G3s)
Other placings of note: 2nd in Wood Memorial (G1), Louisiana Derby, Saratoga BC, MassCap (G2s); 3rd in Belmont, Haskell, Donn, Suburban (G1s), New Orleans Cap (G3), W.D. Schaefer (G3)

Unlike a lot of other horses on this list, we know exactly how good Funny Cide was because he had a full career, running 38 times. The answer? Pretty good, at times very good. He won 11 starts, finished in the money 25 times, and was generally competitive at the highest level as a 3 and 4 year old.

The New York bred gelding showed some potential his juvenile season, winning 3 state-bred races, including the putative championship for 2yo state breds in October. Rested and sent to the South for the winter, he resurfaced in the Holl Bull, when he ran a non-threatening 5th and then in the Louisiana Derby where he ran a decent 3rd and showed some persistence in the stretch. He was then shipped back to New York for the Wood, where he was an afterthought to the Empire Maker Hype Machine, and while he lost, he ran a great 2nd, only losing by a length and a half.

The chatter after the race was ebullient for Empire Maker--the trainer and jockey said he was barely asked for anything and could have won by open lengths. Maybe. What everyone did was ignore that Funny Cide had clearly made a leap from also-ran to serious Derby contender.

Come the First Saturday in May, anyone with two eyes and knowledge of Arabic numbers could see that if you ranked the runners by last GSF, the order and commensurate odds were:

Empire Maker, 5-2
Ten Most Wanted, 6-1
Funny Cide, 13-1
Peace Rules, 6-1
Indian Express, 10-1
Buddy Gil, 7-1

So despite being clearly one of the 3 fastest horses in the race based on his last effort, he was somewhat dismissed at 13-1. Come Derby Day, he proved his backers right--he ran back to his Wood, held off an Empire Maker that was suffering from a foot bruise, and won a gritty victory. It was one of those wins where afterwards, everyone was surprised that absolutely nobody had been talking about the winner.

Funny Cide backed up his Derby win with a romp in the Preakness...sort of. Only one horse of note showed up for the Preakness (Peace Rules), who tired early and was never a factor. This set up what looked like a great Belmont: Funny Cide going for the TC, coming back against Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted, plus new shooter Dynever. He never had a real chance. In a ridiculously sloppy track, Jose Santos sent him to the lead, Empire Maker tracked him cautiously, and took over at the top of the stretch to beat Ten Most Wanted. Funny Cide was a well-beaten 3rd, and the streak of no TC winners continued.

Funny Cide never quite got his mojo back to that elite level after the Belmont. He returned in the Haskell where he was beaten handily by Peace Rules and Sky Mesa, then was oddly laid off until the BC Classic, where he run next to last. His 4 year old season was actually typical of a horse that straddles that borderline between Grade 1 and Grade 2. He was competitive in some stakes, winning the prestigious Jockey Club Gold Cup and running well in the MassCap and Saratoga BC, but was annihilated in the BC Classic and was nowhere near the talented Saint Liam in the New Orleans Handicap. He had a similar season as a 5 year old, and then spent the last 18 months of his career knocking around in state-bred ranks.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with this career. Everyone--everyone--would be excited to own a horse like Funny Cide, who tried hard, had tactical speed, was generally healthy, and picked up a lot of checks. And for about 7 weeks, he was the Little Guy that stood up to the likes of Juddmonte Farms and won the Derby and Preakness. It was a neat run and he was a neat horse. Just not a great one.

20. Smarty Jones (2004 Derby and Preakness)
Other wins of note: Arkansas Derby (G2)
Other placings of note: 2nd in Belmont (G1)

We're going to take some flak for this ranking, given this horse's record was 8 wins and 1 second in 9 starts, and his one loss came by under 2 lengths at the end of a 12 furlong race. But we have never, ever, ever been Smarty Jones fans. This guy caught lightning in a bottle and took advantage of some odd conditions to run up this record. Let's go through it.

His first three starts are a maiden race at Philly Park, a Pennsylvania state-breds stakes at Philly Park, and the ungraded Count Fleet stakes at the inner dirt of Aqueduct. His speed figures are fairly impressive for a horse starting his career (84-105-97), but he beats zero horses of consequence.

He ships to Arkansas for three prep races for the Derby. (Modern trainers, take note--this is not a bad way to prep a horse.) He holds on for a victory in the Southwest against nobody, then puts up impressive wins in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby. Oddly, he needs the Arkansas Derby win to actually get into the Kentucky Derby because while he was 5-for-5 going into that race, all of his prior races hadn't been in graded stakes races.

He comes into the Kentucky Derby in a slightly goofy year where nobody looks particularly enticing. Lion Heart was well regarded from out west, but had just lost the Blue Grass to The Cliff's Edge, who nobody particularly loved. Birdstone was the good two year old who flopped in his starts before the Derby. The Wood, Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby all had odd winners--the Wood was won by the late-developing Tapit, who was unseasoned and not particularly fast, Castledale won the SA Derby at 30-1, and Friends Lake had won the Florida Derby in an upset and was then put in mothballs for two months.

Smarty Jones became the 4-1 favorite by default, and then got a gift from the gods: the skies opened 45 minutes before the race went off, turning a slightly muddy track into a pea soup that nobody liked besides him, as Lion Heart lead for a mile, then Smarty Jones passed him in the stretch as everyone else spun their wheels. Of the 19 horses that ran, 17 ran a speed figure worse than their last race. Nobody closed into the moderate pace. The horse basically won the race by default and proved nothing in victory.

As unimpressive as his Derby win was, his Preakness win made up for it in spades. Now getting a fast track against the 2-3 finishers in the Derby plus talented new shooters Rock Hard Ten and Eddington, Smarty Jones sat off a moderate pace, cut the corner at the top of the stretch, and absolutely exploded down the lane to a 12-length victory. We've seen a lot of impressive performances in racing. This was in the top 5.

And then came the Belmont. We won't get into what transpired in the race because it's been done to death, but will never forget being there that day with 120,000 others on a gorgeous June day. At the top of the stretch, the entire crowd--even us--was on their feet screaming for the horse. When Birdstone passed him, EVERY SINGLE PERSON went silent. It was as if the entire stadium was hit with the mute button. Nobody could believe it--not even the guy sitting a row in front of us who had a $20 win ticket on Birdstone. It was the quietest moment at a sporting event we've ever attended.

And then...that was it. Smarty Jones never ran again, never took on older horses, never tried to see if his form could hold after the Belmont. The Eclipse voters rightly gave the Horse of the Year award to Ghostzapper, annoyed by his failure to run after June, and the horse went from national sensation to after thought in 4 months.

So yeah, maybe we're punishing this guy for not having a more ambitious campaign. But we were never impressed with him besides his Preakness. His Derby was a complete toss-out race (witness Birdstone coming back and running like a new horse in the Belmont), and everything prior to the Derby was against third-rate competition. If you want to be considered great, you have to run against the best and win repeatedly. He tried twice, and won once. That's just not good enough for us. And when we get to the next series of horses, ask yourself who you would take in a match race at 10 furlongs between the two. We think that almost everyone would agree that they would take everyone horse in the next batch ahead of Smarty Jones.

Coming up next week: Good horses that hinted at greatness.

Transactions Analysis: 2011 Tax Day Edition

2011-04-14T13:15:00.000-04:00

Glory, glory, hallelujah, it's time once again for the mixed blessings of Tax Day! Sure, Tax Day carries with it some downsides, notably the horror of participating in a mandatory nationwide jail-enforced arithmetic exam. But there are also benefits, such as helping enable the existence of a pluralistic democratic society, and of course witnessing the return of of the GRBG's signature Transaction Analyses.

Before we go too much farther, we have to pause and note the recently announced departure of Baseball Prospectus's resident transaction guru Christina Kahrl, whose TA column inspired our own TA feature, and thus indirectly this blog. Many thanks, Ms. Kahrl, and here's hoping one of these TAs finds its way into your email some day and makes you smile. Ang, any further wisdom before we kickoff? (Teddy)

I learned that our taxes aren't actually due until Monday the 18th this year thanks to something called Emancipation Day, where in DC, they celebrate the signing of the Emancipation Proclamation by giving all government employees the day off. Usually, it's on the 16th, but because that's a Saturday, it's pushed back to the 15th, which pushes Tax Day to the 18th. I absolutely love this--an area that isn't a state and contributes about 0.2% of the national tax base is solely responsible for giving everyone three days extra to do their 1040s to celebrate a document that didn't free a single slave.

Taking off my Eric Foner hat for a minute, I join Teddy in celebrating the work of Ms. Kahrl who was the inspiration for this column, much of what I read about baseball, and my general ineptitude in this league. I would like to think that we're carrying that torch for her as she leaves for greener pastures, but know we have about 450,000 words, 12 comparisons to Terry Leach and 139 references to the Boer War to make before we've even caught up. By then, maybe Andy will have cashed a check in the league. (El Angelo)

The Little Green One

Signed: Chase “Gossip Girl Pseudonym” Headley (3B, SD); Coco Crisp (OF, OAK); Alex “Flash in the Pan” Gordon (3B/OF, KC); Alexi Ogando (P, TEX); Undrafted AJ Burnett (SP, NYY); Takashi Saito (DL, MIL); Jason Motte (RP, STL); Headley again; Alfonso Soriano (OF, CHC)

Waived: Smooth Dexter Fowler; Headley; Ogando (ouch); Saito; Motte

A sign that your team’s season has gotten off to a rocky start? On two separate occasions you have looked over your team's roster and determined that Chase Headley would improve it. The back half of the third base market really is a pile of suck this year (as amply demonstrated by my current Chiblo Sandovones platoon), but TLG1 is putting a lot of stock in failed 3B prospects here. Of course, Alex Gordon has been on fire, so maybe he's on to something. I don't like the change of speedster OFs from Smooth Dexter to Coco Crisp, though--betting on anything resembling good health from Coco is just shy of madness, whereas Dexter has room to improve. (Teddy)

That this team is in the middle of the pack despite getting 23 at bats from Matt Holliday, Evan Longoria, Corey Hart and Kendrys Morales is borderline miraculous. The Longoria hit is really the double whammy because, as Teddy notes, the alternatives available at the hot corner are fairly putrid. They have roughly the same problem on the pitching side of the ledger, where injuries to Brandon Morrow (gee, that was impossible to see coming) and Greinke have forced them into a corner or drunken stupor where AJ Burnett became a plausible option. I'll give them a pass on the 3B machination because they have to at least try to field a team in April, but the Burnett signing strikes me as madness. You have an innings cap. Save them on pitchers who will help you, or at worst, won't hurt you. Three middle relievers would be better than Burnett. (El Angelo)

Rancho Carne Toros

Signed: Chris Tillman (SP, BAL); Derek Holland (SP, TEX); Bud Norris (SP, HOU)

Called up from Prospect List: Zack Britton (SP, BAL)

Waived: Yonder Alonso (1B, AAA); Jeremy Guthrie (SP, BAL); Nick Masset (RP, CIN)

Is that really 3/5 of the Baltimore staring rotation you've churned through? I don't think we've had that many Oriole pitching moves in a single TA since the era when Daniel Cabrera would routinely challenge for the Pewter Parachute. But leaving that oddity aside, there are actually a number of nice young inbound arms in this transactions line. I think all are probably more valuable in real life--Derek Holland and Bud Norris pitch in lousy home parks, especially once the weather warms up, and the Balmer guys will face tougher comp assuming TB and BOS haven't really both died--but it's not a bad strategy to start with talent.

Also, what the shit is a Nick Masset? (Teddy)

A Reds reliever. During the draft, I rationalized that CoCo Cordero was not a good bet to stay healthy and in the closer's role all year and was ripe for replacement. Perhaps because of the half a case of beer I had already consumed, I forgot about the presence of one Aroldis Chapman.

I explained this on the site, but Matusz's injury forced my hand on Zach Britton--I had hoped to stash him until 2012, but it's clear that he's going to blow through the 30 inning mark before Arbor Day. May as well have him on the roster. Also, I acknowledge Teddy's point about Norris and Holland pitching in shitty parks, but that's why we play matchups. After all, they do play in the same divisions as the Pirates and Mariners. (El Angelo)

The Spam Avengers

Signed: Michael Pineda (Oops, Prospect List); Bronson Arroyo (SP, CIN); Octavio Dotel (RP, TOR): JP Howell (P, TB); Dick Harden (SP, DL); Matt Belisle (RP, COL); Wilton Lopez (RP, HOU); Matt LaPorta (1B, CLE); Jeff Francis (SP, KC)

Assigned as a Penalty Anchor: Alberto Albuquerque (Name of the Year nominee, ARZ)

Waived: Pineda, Albuquerque (sadly); Belisle; Manny Ramirez (DH, TB)

First, two random notes. One, this team has had this name for so long that a Google search for The Spam Avengers turns up the GRBG as the first result. We are some old muthafuckas. Two, this team's very first pickup this year was on somebody else's prospect list, which sets a record of futility that literally can never be broken. Cheers.

Anyway, TSA had the fewest transactions in the league last year, so it's interesting to see him poking around the discount bin this early despite his comfortable lead. I can't that any of the inbound moves really excite me (with the exception of Wilton Lopez, who is a decent bit of Brandon Lyon insurance). But the outbound line is an all-time classic--let's go through it again, this time appending the reasons for the cuts:

Michael Pineda:.......... Illegal pickup;

Alberto Albuquerque: Consequence of illegal pickup;

Matt Belisle: ................Non-closer reliever who pitches in Coors Field; and

Manny Ramirez: ..........Retired inept drug user.

I think the only reason for a cut that beat "Retired inept drug user" was "Has just died," which was why the commish cut Darryl Kile back in the day. As a set, though, that might be the new clubhouse leader. (Teddy)

When did Ugeth Urbina get arrested for attacking a bunch of Venezuelans with machetes and Molotov cocktails? Because if it was during the year and he was arrested and cut for that reason, it would probably top the Kile/Hancock death cuts. But yes, that is quite a set of reasons for cuts. I can't say I understand why a team that actually has three aces on its roster plus a decent 4th starter in Jorge de la Rosa is wasting time with the likes of Jeff Francis and Dick Harden. If any of those guys go down for the long haul and you want to contend, you're going to have to make a trade, not win the league on Francis' guile and talent. (El Angelo)

hosni mubarak has pretty feet

Signed: Ryan “Alyson” Hannigan (Flutist, Sunnydale); Princeton Chris Young (SP, NYM); Ben Francisco (OF, PHI); Wee Willie Bloomquist (IF, ARZ); Sam Fuld (OF, TB)

Waived: Luke Gregerson (RP, SD); Vernon Wells (OF, LAA); Andres Torres (OF, SF); Asdrubal Cabrera (SS, CLE); Hannigan.

The owner's Met fetish pays off, as he reels in the pitching Chris Young, who appears ready to wrest the title of "The Good Chris Young" back from his outfielding Arizona namesake. Ben Francsico and Sam Fuld are also on hand to complete the owner's set of all players featured on the splash page for Yahoo! Fantasy Sports since the start of the season; we assume that Chris Davis will soon be en route to keep the streak alive. (Teddy)

I'm thoroughly enjoying the fact that this team is trying the antithesis of the Farman Strategy--it's loading up on hitters and running out a barebones staff with the hope that CC's fat ass will carry them home. Young actually may be a decent pickup for the year in Shitifield, as his flyballs have warning track power written all over them in that ballpark. I would bench him every time he left the friendly confines of Flushing and you can't expect any run support from a team that's giving Willie Harris a major role, but it's a nice little snag. (El Angelo)

Chicago Residents

Signed: Michael Morse (1B/OF, WAS); Brandon Beachy (SP, ATL); Jim Thome (Strapping Lad, MIN); Carlos Ruiz (C, PHI); Chris Narveson (P, MIL); Michael Wuertz (RP, OAK); Esmil Rogers (SP, COL).

Waived: Edwin Encarnacion (3B, TOR); Clay Hensley (P, FLA); Thome; Ruiz

To riff off the joke made by the feet owner during the draft, I'm sure that Clay Hensley is drowning his sorrow at being waived in somewhere between 2 and 3 feet of Southwestern Bacon Ranch subs at the moment. Other than that, all we see with this transaction line is a team that is concerned about its power numbers but OK with its existing speed. Michael Morse, Jim Thome, and Carlos Ruiz can all bomb it, but if they started 100-yard dash right before a game started, it wouldn't end until the seventh inning stretch.

Also, you can tell that this owner is serious this year, because he cut a Blue Jay and didn't sign a replacement. (Teddy)

In fairness, it's probably not hard to convince this owner to cut E5--I don't think anyone in Canada likes him either. This team is currently employing the curious strategy of punting the DH slot, which works in the AL Central but doesn't seem appropriate for fantasy sports. Their three options are a guy in the minors (Desmond Jennings), a guy who should be in the minors (Justin Smoak) and a guy in the ICU (Chase Utley). Feel like an addition of any hitter with a pulse would go a long way towards a push for contention. Given that they're stockpiling pitchers, methinks a trade proposal or 7 is imminent. (El Angelo)

More Fish for Kunta

Signed: Sergio Romo (RP, SF); Aaron Harang (SP, SD); Jon Garland (SP, LA); Reid Brignac (MI, TB); Dexter Fowler (OF, COL)

Waived: John Lannan (SP, WAS); Marco Scutaro (MI, BOS); Romo.

My starting pitching has been supernaturally awful, while my offense (which I thought would be based around speed and runs), has been near the top of the league in HR and RBI. So I basically have no idea what's going on. I honestly don't like a couple of the guys I signed, but I disliked the guys I cut more, so I guess I had a net gain for the TA period. (Teddy)

Is cutting Scutaro a move to try to light a fire under the Red Sox' ass? Because it does not appear to be working. The player that you picked up that I like the most is Fowler, and problematically, the last thing on God's green earth that you need is another toolsy outfielder. It also means that you're starting 4 Rockies at once, and more when Jimenez returns to pitching. Is that a record for an owner? (El Angelo)

Kicked in the Nuts

Signed: Clay Hensley (RP, FLA); Jeremy Guthrie (SP, BAL); Alexi Ogando (P, TEX )

Waived: JA Happ (P, HOU); Ogando (before later re-signing him)

So for those keeping score at home, this team cut Alexi Ogando, and the commish signed him. However, the commish then re-cut him, whrepon he ended up back here in Jimmyland in time to throw 13 scoreless innings with a WHIP of 0.53. It's a game of skill, folks. (Teddy)

I did not think that Alexi Ogando would be the early leader in the Pewter Parachute Award. Suffice to say that I think his transaction line of 3 will stay the same hereon out, unless he pulls a Tony Saunders. (El Angelo)

Paging Dr. Rumack

Signed: Kyle McClellan (SP, CLE)

Still a great team name, but signing one pitcher off a mediocre team is not the way to get your name in lights in a TA. (Teddy)

Kyle McClellan is from Florissant, Missouri, home of luminaries such as Cedric the Entertainer, Kimora Lee Simmons, Dick Weber and Neil Rackers. According to its Wikipedia page, it's also the home of two bible colleges, an extension campus, and the Missouri School of Barbering. My point is that if this pitching for Dave Duncan doesn't work out, there are plenty of other options for McClellan back home. (El Angelo)

Wu Tang Financial

Signed: Mike Aviles (IF, KC); Mike Adams (RP, SD); Jon Niese (P, NYM); Daric Barton (1B, OAK); Sean Marshall (SP, CHC); Dallas Braden (SP, OAK); Asdrubal Cabrera (SS,CLE)

Waived: Alfonso Soriano (OF, CHC); Joe Blanton (SP, PHI); Aviles

OK, so I get the theory. Alfonso Soriano and Shoeless Joe Blanton aren't going to move the needle on this team this year, so why not dump them and try to get younger. My only problem with the execution is that these are pretty low-upside youngsters--there's a punchless 1B, a Met, and a high-effort low-stuff SP. Not sure that will actually help long-term. Maybe controversially, I think the exception could be Asdrubal Cabrera, who was effective a couple of years ago before spending most of last year hurt. After all, it's not like SS is all that deep at the moment.

In any event, the real boon for this team is the incredibly muddled break from the gate in the league--as I write this, 75.5 points would get you into second place, and there are probably 10 teams who think they can scrape together that many. Could be a sellers' market come June. (Teddy)

I don't mind the Braden pickup, who strikes me as the type of pitcher with mediocre stuff who will perpetually win about 13 games a year. You know, kinda like Joe Blanton. (El Angelo)

Le Dupont Torkies

Signed: Scott Downs (RP, LAA); Joel Zumaya (Mascot, Dr. James Andrews); Brett Wallace (1B, HOU); Kerry Wood (RP, CHC); Logan Morrison (OF, FLA); Travis Hafner (DH, CLE)

Waived: Nate McLouth (OF, ATL); Zumaya; Wallace; Wood

What to make of Travis Hafner? He's swinging like it's 2005; unless he visited Manny's doctor before the season, I can't figure it out. He's obviously a short-term play, but for a team that has squeezed some acceptable post-peak DH seasons out of David Ortiz, the prospect of another particularly bouncy dead cat in the UTIL slot must be intriguing.

Logan Morrison is the more interesting guy going forward. He found a little pop early, and has been getting on at a .400 clip since T-ball; his downside looks like Daric Barton with OF eligibility, which is more playable than you'd think. (Teddy)

I'm more than a little bit surprised that Morrison wasn't on somebody's roster; he stinks of Post Hype Sleeper, and this group is pretty good at taking stabs on those guys at the end of the draft (e.g., Travis Snider). I still don't see a winning roster here, but pickups like Morrison will give this team a fighting chance to be competitive this year. (El Angelo)

Jeters Never Prosper

Signed: Grant Balfour (RP, OAK); Javi Lopez (RP, SF); Craig Breslow (P, OAK); RA Dickey (SP, NYM); Angel Sanchez (MI, HOU)

Waived: Breslow; Lopez

Is it possible for something to be extremely mediocre? If so, this is extremely mediocre. (Teddy)

Has a knuckleballer ever been a good fantasy pickup? I feel like Wakefield's best years were before we started this league, but would he have been useful even then? Knucklers don't strike out a ton of guys and are prone to the 2 IP 8 ER start now and then. (El Angelo)

Cosmic Douchery

Signed: Octavio Dotel (RP, TOR); Carl Pavano (SP, MIN); Jose Contreras (RP, PHI); Dice-K (P-ish, BOS); Ryan Theriot (MI, STL); Scott Baker (SP, MIN); Placido Polanco (2B/3B, PHI); Matt Harrison (SP, TEX); David Murphy (OF, TEX)

Waived: Chris Young (P, NYM); Rick Porcello (SP, DET); Tsuyoshi Nishioka (MI, MIN); Dice-K (racist much?); Polanco (before later re-signing)

I hope for your sake that Dice-K has been safely on your bench. He's the biggest disaster to come out of Japan since ...

Kaz Matsui. What, you thought I was going somewhere different with that? (Teddy)

I did. Kaz Matsui's anal fissure, actually. (El Angelo)

Ranking the Triple Crown Winners, Part II

2011-04-05T01:45:00.000-04:00

In our last piece in this series, we took a look at 6 horses that were complete flukes and won either the Belmont or Derby. (Notably, none of them won the Preakness, going back to our earlier theory that the Preakness has, against all odds, become the race that crowns champions.) Today, we take a look at the next 7 horses in our countdown of horses that have won Triple Crown races in the last 15 years. The first group of three are horses that are a level above "complete fluke" and the next group of four are horses that had stretches of excellence at one time or another. But all 7 had one thing in common: their careers were ultimately disappointing.

Tier II: Breeding Suggested More

30. Jazil (2006 Belmont)
Other wins of note: None.
Other placings of note: 2nd Wood Memorial, 4th Kentucky Derby (G1s).

One of the best-bred horses we'll see in this series, Jazil was out of the dam Better Than Honour, who was the mother of 2007 Belmont winner Rags to Riches, the useful Casino Drive, and BC Marathon winner Man of Iron. This guy was the first of those horses to be born, and despite costing $725k at auction, he was not exactly highly regarded before the Belmont, having been under 7-1 once before the big race, and that was in an off-the-turf maiden race at Aqueduct in December.

As a horse with absolutely no early speed, Jazil was always dependent on the pace and racing luck. He looked okay in his first start as a three-year old, where he lost to the underrated Corinthian, then did nothing in the Fountain of Youth, where he lost by 23 lengths and was never a factor. He rebounded in the Wood Memorial, closing from 20+ lengths out to run second by 2 lengths while never really threatening the winner. Come Derby day, he seemed like a perfect candidate to "clunk up" for a piece, which he did, dead-heating for 4th at 24-1 while still losing by almost 10 lengths.

After skipping the Preakness, he was entered in the Belmont and was now 9-2. Why? Well his breeding suggested he'd like the distance. It was also one of the worst Belmont fields in memory, as the Derby and Preakness winners were both out, and the favorites were the Todd Pletcher trained Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver. Somebody had to be the third choice. It was him.

And Jazil did about what you'd expect, rallied into a fairly strong pace and kept going at the top of the stretch. While he looked good that day on Big Sandy, it was his second and last victory, as he was injured and out for the rest of the year, was completely unimpressive in his two dirt starts the following year, then finished DAFL in his lone turf start. He was then retired and is now standing at Shadwell Farm.

Should he have been a better horse? Based on breeding yes, but he was a stone closer and a plodder. Those types of horses will cash a fair amount of checks but not win often (like Giacomo). Still, this guy had more latent talent than the six upsetters, and we think that if he had been healthy, he could have done a little more damage. Random prediction--this guy will sire a couple of Grade 1 winners.

29. Grindstone (1996 Derby)
Other wins of note: Louisiana Derby (G3)
Other placings of note: None.

The horse with the shortest resume of the bunch (6 total starts), Grindstone looked to be coming into his own when he nipped Cavonnier at the wire to win the '96 Derby. Unfortunately, that was his final start as he was found to have knee chips and was retired 5 days later. It's tough to say how good this guy was, given that he made all of 6 starts. He did beat a nice field in the Derby--in addition to Cavonnier and the winners of the Preakness and Belmont, the field included Skip Away, albeit on a track he didn't like--but really didn't accomplish much, so we'll slot him here.

28. Super Saver (2010 Derby)
Other wins of note: Kentucky Jockey Club (G2)
Other placings of note: 2nd Arkansas Derby (G1); 3rd Tampa Bay Derby (G3)

Beats out Grindstone because he won a stakes race as a 2 year old. This guy ran about 2 good races in his career and was bred to the wazoo, but never really showed it. In fact, he went backwards after the Derby pretty badly, as he completely no-showed in the Preakness, Haskell and Travers. Maybe he just liked Churchill Downs.

Tier III: Things Fell Apart

27. Editor's Note (1996 Belmont)
Other wins of note: Super Derby (G1); Kentucky Cup Juvenile (G3)
Other placings of note: 2nd in Florida Derby (G1), Holy Bull and Kentucky Jockey Club (G3s); 3rd in Preakness, BC Juvenile and Blue Grass (G1s)

I have a soft spot for this horse because I cashed a nice ticket on him in the 1996 Belmont, but he did not have a great career. When you're a classic winner and start 31--yes, thirty-one--times, you should win more than 6 races. Hell, you should finish in the money more than 13 times.

After a stout 9-race campaign as a two year old--the type of campaign that no longer exists--this guy came back and ran 12 times as a 3 year old, dancing in every major dance (he ran in 8 Grade 1's), finishing in the money half the time with victories in the Belmont and Super Derby as his coups. What's now forgotten is that after the Belmont, this guy had a sneaky-decent fall campaign: after a horrible Jim Dandy, he ran a decent 4th in the Travers with a bad trip, won the Super Derby with ease, and was only 3 lengths behind Skip Away and Cigar in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

At that point, it looked like this guy was a sleeper pick for the Breeders Cup Classic and would be a force the next year. It never happened. He finished next to last in the Breeders Cup Classic, went 1-for-9 as a 4 year old with his only win coming in allowance company, and losing his 8 starts in stakes races by a total of 170 lengths. In his final start, the '97 Woodward that featured a fantastic showing by Formal Gold and Skip Away, he finished last in a 5-horse field and lost by 58 lengths, running an embarassing 27 GSF. He was retired thereafter.

Maybe this guy was just overworked in his career. By the time he started in the '96 Breeders Cup Classic, he had already made 20 career starts. While that was something of the norm in the 80's, it is close to unheard of in the modern era. For example, Lemon Drop Kid was aggressively placed and "only" ran 14 times before the BC Classic his 3yo season. Point Given made all of 13 starts through the Travers. Those extra 5-6 starts Editor's Note made may have been the end of him. Which is too bad, because when on, this guy was actually a pretty good horse.

26. Red Bullet (2000 Preakness)
Other wins of note: Gotham Stakes (G3)
Other placings of note: 2nd in Wood Memorial (G1) and Skip Away Handicap (G3); 3rd in Cigar Mile (G1) and Dwyer Stakes (G3)

In early 2000, there were a few horses getting a ton of chatter, namely Fusaichi Pegasus, War Chant and The Deputy in the west and the prior year's top juvenile, More Than Ready, in Florida. Late arriving on the scene was this son of Unbridled, who didn't make his first start until he was a 3 year old, when he won his first three races, including the Gotham, Aqueduct's prep for the Wood. Fusaichi Pegasus then shipped east for the Wood, and while everyone was dazzled by FuPeg's victory, eagle-eyed race watchers knew that Red Bullet's runner up finish was quite good, especially for a horse in his fourth start. Then the connections did something nobody thought anyone with a top 3 year old would ever do:

They voluntarily skipped the Kentucky Derby.

The world's collective reaction was WTF? Trainer Joe Orseno summed up their reasoning at the time:

''We looked at everything and decided to do what is best for the horse and not to just follow our hearts,'' Orseno said. ''I think it says a lot about the Stronachs. How many people would pass on a chance to run in the Kentucky Derby in order to preserve the welfare and the longevity of a horse?'' He added: ''Our goal is to win the 3-year-old championship. If Fusaichi Pegasus wins the Kentucky Derby, and that's not to say he will, then we'll be waiting for him at Pimlico.''

After Fusaichi Pegasus won handily in the Derby, he was a strong favorite in the Preakness, but Red Bullet, by a crafty Jerry Bailey ride, turned the tables and pulled off the upset. While this destroyed everyone's hope for a Triple Crown winner, it set up a neat storyline, as the Belmont would have been the rubber match. Then the trainer did something equally unthinkable:

He skipped the Belmont.

Now go back to that prior quote. If the goal was really to win the Eclipse Award for top 3 year old...how on earth do you skip the Belmont? Orseno acknowledged that they would be behind FuPeg if he won the Belmont instead, but thought skipping the race was the right thing to do:

"We don't want to squeeze the lemon," trainer Joe Orseno said Sunday at Belmont Park of the decision to withhold Red Bullet from the 1 1/2-mile finale of the Triple Crown. "We've already won the Preakness with a horse that didn't run as a 2-year-old, and we think it's best to give him more time in between in races right now. If you run in a mile-and-a-half race, that knocks you out for three months. It's pointless."

Baloney. The obvious truth is that Red Bullet had health issues. He didn't start again until he was 4 years old, and from that point on, won a meaningless ungraded stakes race and never looked remotely as good. That's why the horse didn't start as a 2-year old and why he was on such a spaced, abbreviated schedule as a Triple Crown contender. When healthy, this guy was as good as the top 10 horses on this list. The problem is that he was that healthy for about a 3 month span in the spring of 2000.

Side note: what happened to trainer Joe Orseno? He won the Preakness, BC Juvenile and BC F&M Turf in 2000, training this guy, Macho Uno and Perfect Sting. Those were the last good horses he ever trained. Further proof that often at the top level of the sport, the horses make the trainer, not the reverse.

25. Louis Quatorze (1996 Preakness)
Other wins of note: Jim Dandy (G2); Ben Ali and Creme Fraiche (G3s)
Other placings of note: 2nd in '96 Breeders Cup Classic and Travers (G1s), Blue Grass and Hopeful (G2s), Futurity (G3); 3rd in Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1)

Louis Quatorze is something of the Johnny Vander Meer of horse racing--his name pops up every time a horse runs badly in the Derby and runs back in the Preakness, much like Vander Meer's name comes up every time a no-hitter is thrown because he was the only guy to throw consecutive no-hitters. Why do hear about Louis Q every year or so? Because this guy ran an absolutely horrible Kentucky Derby--something of a wise-guy horse at 13-1 off his decent second in the Blue Grass--he finished 16th in the Kentucky Derby and lost by over 26 lengths.

Two weeks later, aided by a slightly damp track and a profound lack of early speed, Louis Quatorze went to the front at the beginning of the Preakness and never looked back under a fantastic ride by Pat Day, drawing off to win handily in record time. (Yes, he has the fastest official Preakness time, because the clock malfunctioned Secretariat's year.) It looked like this guy had turned the corner and was primed to become a division leader. Did that happen?

Of course not, otherwise he'd be higher on this list. He ran indifferently in the Belmont, came back to win the Jim Dandy later that year, but his best races were actually losses--a sneaky good 3rd to Skip Away and Cigar in the 1996 Jockey Club Gold Cup and losing the BC Classic by a nose to Alphabet Soup (beating Cigar). His older horse seasons were the definition of indifferent, as he knocked around in the handicap division without making a dent.

This guy didn't necessarily have a bad career, but on review, his career was anything but special. He had one Grade 1 win--the Preakness. He became more defined by the races he lost, namely, his finishes in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic. And of course, his Derby flop. Which is why you keep hearing about him.

24. Monarchos (2001 Derby)
Other wins of note: Florida Derby (G1)
Other placings of note: 2nd in Wood Memorial (G1); 3rd in Belmont (G1)

Pop quiz: name the only three horses to have run a sub-2 minute Kentucky Derby. Everyone knows that one is Secretariat, and wise-guys know that the second horse to do it was Sham, when he ran a close second to Secretariat in 1973. Monarchos is the third.

For a 4-month stretch in early 2001, Monarchos was one of the best 3 year olds we've seen. Exiting a forgettable 2 year old campaign, the stoutly bred son of Maria's Mon won his third start in a sharp 7-furlong performance at Gulfstream. He did that one better in an allowance race next out, sitting off a moderate pace in his first two-turn race and drawing off to win easily. Made the 7-5 favorite in the Florida Derby--which was then a prep for Derby preps--he fell off a strong pace and made a titanic move on the far turn to take the lead at the top of the stretch, pulling away to an emphatic 5-length win. The move looked exactly like the type of big turn move you see out of a Derby winner, and the racing press took note, hyping up the Derby as an East versus West battle of the new shooter Monarchos versus the titan Point Given.

Except there was another round of prep races to go. Monarchos entered the Wood Memorial as the 9-10 favorite with his only main competition being the fairly untested Congaree, who came into the racing having made a whopping 3 starts, but also being a Bob Baffert horse, needed to get away from Point Given. Monarchos assume his usual position at the back of the pack of a pretty small field (6 horses), while Congaree sat just off the hapless pacesetter. Come the far turn, Congaree had first run and was full of run and never looked back, winning by 2 1/2. Lost in all the hullabaloo over Baffert's talented new shooter, however, was that Monarchos actually ran a perfect Derby prep--he closed well into Congaree and by John Ward's own admission wasn't fully geared to run on Derby day.

Come Derby day, there was no reason to not like Monarchos. Sure, Point Given looked tough but the rest of the competition...not so much. Congaree had only 4 career starts, a no-no that wasn't broken until Big Brown in 2008. The other major prep winners were Millennium Wind and Balto Star, horses with clear limitations. Despite this, based on his loss in the Wood, the general public forgot about Monarchos and sent him off as the 6th choice at 10-1. In a word, whoops.

Monarchos' win yielded him a 116 GSF, a fabulous figure that he would never remotely approach again. In the Preakness he was the 5-2 second choice behind Point Given and ran a flat sixth, never in contention. He was the 5-1 third choice in the Belmont, and while he ran 3rd, he lost by almost 14 lengths. He was off for the rest of the year, then came back in an allowance race, where he ran third to the horrible Mongoose and Watch Your Pennies. He was promptly retired.

Monarchos didn't have the longest or most prosperous career--he only won two stakes races, for crying out loud--but when he was on, he was tremendous. If we ranked the 15 Derby winners by best performance, his is either first or second with Barbaro. It's hard to say what went wrong after the Derby, clearly that race took something out of him that he never got back. But based on his brief brilliance, he's worthy of #24 on our list.

Coming up next week: Four horses that were memorable, but in our opinion, weren't as good as everyone believes.

Season Preview: The 2011 Predictatron

2011-04-03T18:30:00.010-04:00

For the second straight year, rather than just announcing our own hapless predictions, we solicited the opinions of the rest of the owners in the league, asking the others to submit predictions ranking 1 through 12. We received 8 responses, assigned points, (12 to first place picks, 11 to second place picks, and so on down to 1 for DAFL), added them up, and ranked them accordingly.

This year we had something of a division in the results: one team clearly on top, one team clearly in second, one team clearly on the bottom, and three discernible groups of three in the middle. Let's count them down from top to bottom. Anything useful to add, Teddy, outside of how great Florence was? (El Angelo)

I'm still fighting through the pork sweats, so I don't have a ton to offer at the moment, except to note that it was nice to come home and find my team in DAFL. (Teddy)

12. Wu Tang Financial (18 pts)

As stated in my preview, I disagree with this prediction. This squad won't compete for a spot in the money, but they're young and interesting, and more importantly, won't be trading off assets in July for a race to the bottom. Clearly, though, I'm in the minority, because nobody else has these guys finishing better than 10th. (El Angelo)

After reading your preview, I've sort of come around to that position myself. I'm not terribly sanguine about this team's deathship performance, but straight last seems unlikely. (Teddy)

T-10. Chicago Residents (32 pts) .

I'm a little surprised that this team is ranked this low--this is the squad that everyone picked to win last year, had a fair keeper list, and did have 3 picks in the first two rounds. Though I guess when you use one of them to take Chase Utley's corpse, you get little or no credit for it. For whatever it's worth, 32 points would have gotten you 9th place in last year's poll, so maybe the bottom is a little deeper. (El Angelo)

I've been gone--is Utley officially dead or something? The only baseball-related facts I've been able to glean this week is that the performances of my team and the Sox mean that Italy is apparently bad baseball luck for me.

Random note on Italian baseball. We stayed outside of Arezzo for a few days, and in town there was a freaking baseball/softball complex. Fuck the heck? Baseball comes in a distant fifth in Italian balls, behind volley-, basket-, meat-, and melon. I sort of wanted to jump in to a pickup game there and see whether I'd be the Barry Bonds of Italian baseball. (Teddy)

T-10. chad has pretty feet (32 pts)

One of three teams that nobody picked to finish in the money. To me, it's hard to see a ton of improvement from last year's 8th place finish. At least we know the owner will be entertaining. (El Angelo)

The automatic zero in saves is going to hurt. (Teddy)

9. The Little Green One (34 pts) .

Half the field picked this team to finish in last or next to last, which was offset by a 3rd and 5th place pick. It would shock nobody if they collapsed to the bottom because they traded off some assets in June and built for '12. (El Angelo)

Well, the last team with that violent a boom/bust voting split won the wh0le shooting match, so I guess there's hope. (Teddy)

8. Cosmic Douchery (50 pts)

Here's the 3rd team that nobody picked to finish in the money. I find this incredible--this team finished in 2nd last year and has been out of the money once in the history of the league. Though I didn't pick them to finish in the top 4, so I suppose I'm not one to talk. (El Angelo)

Yeah, as I sort of hinted in the preview, I think there are enough odds and ends on the roster to keep this team competitive. (Teddy)

7. Kicked in the Nuts (51 pts, 1 first place vote)

An interesting set of predictions for the Orchidometers--in addition to the first place vote, another owner picked them for second. Then there's the 4 that slotted them into 9th and 10th place. I suppose that's how you average out to the dead center. (El Angelo)

One thing you know about this franchise is that the owner is competely willing to GFIN (Go For It Now), or even GFIETITL (Go For It Even Though It's Too Late). With a few obvious early-sale candidates out there, this season could present another opportunity for these guys to drop the hammer. (Teddy)

6. Le Dupont Torkies (53 pts)

We all doubt Tucker at our own peril. That said, the team did only have one draft pick above #70 this year that stands to play in 2011, and it was Geovany Soto. (El Angelo)

Put that way, it does sound a little ominous. (Teddy)

5. More Fish For Kunta (60 pts) .

My preview noted that as constituted, this looked like a 5th place team that needed its owner to make a move or two for it to hit the money. I love it when the masses agree with me. I can't wait to see how much testicular fortitude my co-author decides to exercise this summer. (El Angelo)

I will not be 5th. I will be 3d or 11th. But not 5th. (Teddy)

4. Jeters Never Prosper (65 pts)

The people have spoken, and they've concluded that this team is clearly "good, not good enough": the picks are for 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 7th, 8th. For whatever it's worth, Chad's team had a similar voting pattern last year and they hit the board. (El Angelo)

They actually remind me a little of my team last year, in that they're a break or two away from the baord heading into the season. I got my break in the form of Carlos Gonzalez; we'll see if these guys can find a similar Leap somewhere on the roster. (Teddy)

3. Paging Dr. Rumack (66 pts, 1 first place vote)

The narrow edge over the Jakes is because of that one first place vote. I actually find this pick interesting because they had near no picks early in the draft, weren't quite a contender last year, and lost both Hanley Ramirez and CC Sabathia. Lots of confidence in the owner, I suppose, or a complete lack of confidence in the rest of the league. (El Angelo)

I still don't love the offense, but voting for arms in depth is usually a pretty good idea. (Teddy)

2. Rancho Carne Toros (78 pts, 1 first place vote)

Five of 8 owners put me in the money, and 4 of them have me finishing first or second. Thanks for the added pressure guys. Have you realized that I currently have one closer and it's Jose Valverde? Note to Jim Riggleman--Drew Storen is your best reliever. (El Angelo)

The divergence between the best reliever on a given team and the closer on that team has never been larger. It will be interesting to see whether MLB managers cotton on to that fact at some point during the season. (Teddy)

1. The Spam Avengers (85 pts, 5 first place votes)

First surprise: that this pick isn't unanimous, or at least 7 of 8 because the owner submitted a ballot. Second surprise: someone picked this team to finish in 9th. We will not reveal who made that prediction, but every other owner had them in the money, and only 1 other had them worse than 2nd. Ballsy. If that rogue owner is right, he'll be lauded in October much like Nate Silver was in 2008. (El Angelo)

As we go to print, this team has 110 points out of a possible 120. So, yeah. (Teddy)

Season Preview: chad has pretty feet

2011-04-02T19:10:00.000-04:00

For most of my previews, we've looked at some of the great albums that were released in 1991--classics from R.E.M, Pearl Jam, Nirvana and Soundgarden. Arguably the album and production that received the most attention in 1991 was the new flashy Broadway play Miss Saigon, which brought Modern Butterfly into the Vietnam War, and engaged in some wonderful ethnic sensitivity by hiring the Welsh Jonathan Pryce to play an Asian man. This wasn't quite as bad as the use of blackface in Holiday Inn, but still put the theater world in quite a tizzy.

And in the end, it was hardly justified because Miss Saigon sucked. Sure it ran on Broadway for years. That doesn't mean it was any good--so did Cats. The music wasn't very good, the acting was subpar, the story derivative, and it was an overproduced mess that nobody particularly liked.

Which makes it a perfect analogue for Ironhead's squad. One of three teams to have never cashed a check in the league, Governor Lowercase makes a lot of noise and show with little return. Is 2011 going to be his Rent or his Spiderman Turn off the Dark? Let's see.

Infield

I still believe, the time will come.

Probably the best infield in the league. Adrian Gonzalez, now unleashed from PETCO Hell, should go apeshit in the AL East. If healthy, Dustin Pedroia and Jose Reyes are studs at the middle infield. Mark Reynolds and Mike Napoli are well above average at their position. There's really nothing to criticize here. Even the backups are pretty solid--Neil Walker is a fine sub for 2B, Howie Kendrick's a good flyer to have just in case he finally hits .350, and you could do far worse than Ass Cabrera at short.

Outfield

I will not cry, I will not think, I'll do my dance, I'll make them drink

Sort of the inverse of Teddy's preview, where we started with a horrible infield and moved on to good sets of players. We now come to the outfield, which would have been dominant in 2002. I mean, Bobby Abreu, Vlad Guerrero, and Vernon Wells? Is there a requirement that he draft a certain number of former and current members of the Angels? Where the hell is Tim Salmon? And Luis Polonia?

Now there are some useful assets here. Jose Bautista is unlikely to hit 54 home runs again, but even if he goes .350/35/100, he'll be very very good. Delmon Young has a shot to finally live up to his potential if he stops throwing bats at other players. But really, this is not a group of outfielders that will make up a championship roster.

Starters

I'm disgraced, I can't get ahead.

Quietly, this rotation could be very good. CC Sabathia, who was a steal at #5 in this year's draft, Roy Oswalt are a pair of aces up top. Phil Hughes and Madison Baumgarner are a nice pair of young guys--while there's commensurate risk that they implode and become useless, they also could put up 30 W's and nice rate stats. I'm less high on CJ Wilson than Ironhead, but if you need a flyer at the 5th spot, he's fine.

Relievers

You're telling me this half-breed rat is the son of a Marine? Let me see his western nose.

Matt Capps isn't closing, Rafael Soriano won't be closing, and Tyler Clippard shouldn't be closing. As constituted, this group is going to accumulate 10 saves. That won't be good enough for anything more than 1 save points and won't help their starters overcome their issues.

Outlook

She's sort of a virgin...well, more or less.

One of these years this team will pop its cherry. 2011 won't be it. The outfield is too questionable and there's little of practical use in the pen this year. Unless the likes of Abreu and Vlad have a renaissance, we're looking at another year of not-quite-good-enough to contend.

Season Preview: More Fish For Kunta

2011-04-02T17:25:00.006-04:00

I confess to having no clue what Teddy's team name meant this year. A google revealed that it's a reference from some show called Community. Whatever. If the show doesn't have Padma Lakshmi or Heidi Klum, I'm not watching it. Let's give Teddy's team a preview with a lift from Soundgarden's Badmotorfinger.

Infield

I just looked in the mirror, things aren't looking so good.

Let's get the negative out of the way first--this infield is not to my liking as it's not full of guys with a lot of talent. Tulo needs no introduction but it gets horrible fast after that. Chris Ianetta and Lawrence Dickmonger Jones combined for about a full season between the two of them, and are anything but bets to play a lot this year. Nor are they good bets to play well--Ianaetta has been perpetually disappointing, and Jones is 95 years old and a fester cesspool of chlamydia. ChoneShonne Figgins has turned into Juan Pierre at second base. Kila Ka'hilue is at least interesting because he's been talked about with the reverence of Youkilis for years, but has completely failed to show that in his limited time in the majors. More problematically, he's on the Royals. How many guys is he going to knock in even if he hits well?

Even the backups don't get me excited. Marco Scutaro is a pure homer pick and I think (and hope!) will be usurped by Jed Lowrie by Memorial Day. Derrek Lee has a giant pitchfork sticking out of his back. And planning on Lance Berkman to stay healthy while taking up right field is planning to fail. Hell, there's an argument that Pablo Sandoval is the second best infielder on this team. That's not good.

Outfield

I used my inspiration for a guillotine.

Enough of the negativity--this outfield rocks. Ryan Braun is an MVP candidate, CarGo was an MVP contender last year, and BJ Upton is a guy I like to contribute in 4-5 categories this year. Now yes, there's no depth here whatsoever, and Gonzalez is a little bit of an injury risk. But the 3 guys they have match up with every outfield in the league.

Starters

I close my eyes and walk a thousand years.

When Jonathan Sanchez is your fourth starter, you're in good shape. There's really nothing more to add to the simple declaration that Sanchez, Chad Billingsley, Ubaldo Jimenez and Cole Hamels is a lot of front line talent on the rotation. What's more curious is how this team handles the other starters they have. Edinson Volquez was lit up like a Christmas tree on Opening Day, and Travis Wood and Jake Westbrook are just guys. There's nothing wrong with having them on your roster, per se. But when you've got 4 excellent starters and, as we'll see, a nice bullpen, these guys should get nothing more than spot-starts against the Pirates and Royals.

Relievers

Stop, you're trying to bruise my mind.

Ron Washington may have made the wrong decision for his baseball team, but keeping Neftali Feliz in the pen is the right decision for Teddy's team, because that's another 35 saves and 75 K's from the pen for him. Papelbon isn't someone I love this year, but he'll likely remain the closer unless he implodes, and Bobby Jenks is here as the backup plan. Not a deep pen, but those that are there should be useful.

Outlook

I wish to wish, I dream to dream.

This team feels like it's 80% of the way to becoming a contender, what with a good staff and a great outfield, albeit without a ton of depth. It's the infield that has me concerned, but while the guys there aren't really any good, there aren't any true sinkholes that will put them behind the eight ball. What will likely develop by June 15 is a team in 4th or 5th place with 70 points, in shouting distance of the top 2, and with a decision to make--go for it, or trade off Tulo and Braun for assets? There are worse fates--you could be in the bottom with nothing to trade off--but where this team ends up likely depends on the desire of my co-blogger to truly make a run for it.

Season Preview: Chicago Residents

2011-04-01T10:49:00.006-04:00

Up next are the Chicago Residents, owned by Mr. Corey, who was everyone's pick to win it all last year, following his runner up finish in 2009 and a lengthy keeper list. Unfortunately, half his roster turned into pumpkins by Mother's Day, and he ended the year tied for 9th with yours truly. But he ended up with an interesting keeper list and 5 picks in the first two rounds, two of which he dealt away for a 2012 first rounder. Is he punting for next year or in it to win it this year? Let's take a look with some assistance from our favorite band for Georgia, R.E.M. and their classic album Out of Time.

Infield

40,000 stars in the evening, look at them fall from the sky.

This has the potential to be the best infield in the league, but I doubt it will happen, since Chase Utley is looking more and more doubtful for the season as time goes on. Still, starting off with the best 3B (David Wright) and catcher (Brian McCann) makes a decent core that should make up for a multitude of sins. And one of those sins is carrying defensive-first shortstop Starlin Castro. Was Kevin Elster unavailable? Another potential sin is relying on Billy Butler to improve to the star everyone's been predicting he'll become, but has yet to happen. Him and Justin Smoak could combine for anywhere from 20 to 60 home runs. I'll take the under.

Outfield

I sat there looking ugly, looking ugly and mean.

Balanced. Brett Gardner provies steals, Jim Thome provides nominal power and OBP, Heyward is a potential monster, and Andre Ethier perfectly encapsulates being well-rounded. Still, there's going to need to be some improvement by Heyward here for this to be an asset, because Thome is not going to improve off last year's stats, and Gardner has no power to provide. Michael Morse is also on the bench, presumably to show that Corey has a sense of humor.

Starters

Throw your love around, love me, love me.

Talented up top with some good risks to follow. Justin Verlander and Josh Johnson makes a 1-2 punch that's as good as any in the league. Mat Latos strikes me as someone with potential to regress a bit in the fantasy realm, what with no Adrian Gonzalez behind him and a huge jump in innings last year, but he's a fine risk for the 3rd slot. As is Shawn Marcum, who also appears to have injury concerns. The fun wildcard here is Mike Minor, who should be up by Memorial Day and doing damage to the craptitude of the bottom of the NL. This should be one of the better staffs if they can avoid injuries.

Relievers

The world is collapsing around our ears.

There are six relievers on this roster. If you ranked them from best to worst, the best would probably be, in some order, Daniel Bard, Hong Chi-Kuo and Ryan Madson. What do all three of them have in common? Right. They're not closing. Those guys are all on the periphery of closing, but probably aren't even their team's second options--we're seeing it now in Philly with Madson still in the setup role with Lidge hurt, and you have to think that Bobby Jenks and Kenley Jansen are ahead of the other two if Paps and Broxton go down (or suck). That doesn't mean they're bad roster players--they'll add good K's, help the rate stats and pick up some vulture wins. But not many saves.

The other three relievers are actually closing but are something of a mixed bag. Joe Nathan was an elite closer but is coming back from surgery that cost him 2010, and at 36, is a giant question mark. Matt Thornton was sneaky good the last couple of years for the ChiSox, but is also older than you think (34) and strikes me as a guy who will regress, and is flanked by some very good relievers in case he fails. And Huston Street is an injury risk and pitches in Coors. You would think this could all balance out to a lot of saves and vulture relief goodness, but I'm skeptical.

Outlook

It seems a shame you waste your time on me.

There are two teams we never seem to predict correctly. One is Will, whose abilities to defy our predictions is well-documented. This is the other one. In '09 I thought they'd have a strong season, Teddy's PECOTA predictions had them at the bottom of the heap, and a great Carl Crawford season later, they were an excellent second. Last year, the entire league thought they were the team to beat; they finished 9th. So take this prediction with a dome of salt.

If the health holds up all around, there's a lot to like on this team, as the infield and starting pitching could be sick. On the other hand, the relief pitching could make you sick because as noted, the good pitchers aren't closing and the closers aren't good pitchers. There's enough hedges between injuries and performance variables that this team seems set for a middle-of-the pack finish.

Season Preview: Le Dupont Torkies

2011-04-01T07:30:00.000-04:00

Continuing our trip around the league and the 1991 soundtrack, let's take a peek at the two best historically: Le Dupont Torkies, our historically best team, and Nevermind, the year's best album.

Infield

I don't care, care, care, care if it's old.

I was about to muster up a defense of A-Rod as a franchise cornerstone, then I read JoePo's top 32 players column where he couldn't decide who was better, Mr. Diaz or Adrian Beltre. Now this comp does include defense, I hope, but yikes. It's not that Rodriguez sucks, and he plays a thin position, but his injuries and age have to be cause for concern.

It's even more cause for concern here because this infield is laden with question marks. Jorge Posada is useful because he qualifies as a catcher but is calcifying faster than Jeter. Soto is good but not elite. Furcal's also an injury risk. And Ben Zobrist could put up numbers that rival Mike Schmidt or Mike Gallego, and neither would be surprising. So while ARod and Uggla are a good start, question marks abound on a bunch that's not at all deep.

Outfield

Amazes me the will of instinct.

The Farman strategy has always been to load up on a lot of pitchers and keep a thin offense. And this year is no exception because there are 4 outfielders here, including Zobrist. The problem? None are elite. Shane Victorino is a nice 5-category player that shouldn't be your top OFer. Jayson Werth's career is reminiscent of guys like Alfonso Soriano--huge numbers at a young age for decent teams, but now moves to a shitty Nats team where he's unlikely to get a ton of RBI's especially once freed from Philly's bandbox. As for Nate McLouth, he's never had a .360 OBP, 25 HR or 25 steals. And that's the entire outfield. Hard to see where the stud might be.

Starters

I'm worst at what I do best and for this gift I'm feeling blessed.

It's long been a Torkie strategem to load up on pitchers and run them in and out every day based on who's hot, who's not, and matchups. This has worked well in the past. I'm not so sure it's going to work well this year.

Starting out with the positives, Brett Anderson is a guy I love this year and a legit Cy Young candidate if healthy. There's a few guys that I like here to have bounceback seasons--John Lackey, CarZo, and maybe even Johnny Cueto. After that, it's a lot dicier. Edwin Jackson will walk the ballpark and threatens to kill the team's WHIP is not used carefully. Ivan Nova and Kyle Drabek are curiosities, but they're young 4th starters for now.

Now look, there are no real "stiffs" on this roster of pitchers. But there's a lack of guys who will be top-shelf pitchers in 2012. Come next year, when Adam Wainwright is healthy and Drabek and Anderson have some more innings under this belt, this could be a scary staff. But for now, it appears to be a clear level below some of the squads sporting aces up top.

Finally some good news--a staff I like. Brett Anderson is a guy I love and a dark horse Cy Young candidate. Lackey, Neimann, CarZo and Cueto are all good bounceback candidates, figure 2 of those should work out.

Relievers

I'm so ugly, but that's okay cause so are you.

This staff has NINE relievers, and if we asked 5 people to get there opinion on who the best reliever is, I think we'd get 5 different answers. Is it Ryan Franklin, who is probably the safest source for saves? Is it JJ Putz, who's looked good all spring? Is it Craig Kimbrel, who has the potential to be the next Joakim Soria? Or is it Chris Sale, who's probably the best pitcher of the bunch, but is currently pitching in the 7th inning?

There's a good chance that this team gets a ton of saves because there's a lot of closer mass here, and some guys who should get a bunch of vulture wins and K's. So yeah, that's one category they should be good at.

Outlook

What the hell am I trying to say?

It's hard for me to say something negative about a team that hasn't finished below 5th in ages, but this looks like a consolidation year for the Torkies. This isn't a surprise per se, as the team had to hemorrhage a lot of good players over the last two years, then this year ended up with 2 picks in the top 70 of a fairly shallow draft. And one of those was used on Wainwright, who won't help until next year. Which is the next time we think this team will compete.

Season Preview: Kicked in the Nuts

2011-03-29T19:45:00.002-04:00

Our next preview takes us to one of the best team names we've had in a while, Will's squad Kicked in the Nuts. People who made the trip to AC know that the genesis of the name is probably from a certainly owner who's won the league more times than anyone else but shall remain nameless deciding, in what was possibly an alcohol-induced state, to kick this team's owner in the jimmy in the middle of a casino floor. But I note that the team name is a bit more apropos than you'd think based on how Will's teams have done over the past few years:

In 2010, this team racks up a solid 84 points, and deals off its first four draft picks for 2011 in the process. Sadly, this only gets them 4th place.
In 2009, this team again deals off a bunch of early picks in a run for the title and winds up with 80.5 points. That sounds impressive, but it got them 5th place.
In 2006, the team put up its all-time high of 90 points. That at least got them in the money, but they had to settle for second place.
To make matters more silly, they finished 2nd in last year's Deathship, a completely meaningless silver medal.

So Will joins Teddy and me in the Best To Never Win It All category, and in recent years, has made aggressive moves to push towards the top. He took that to a new level this year by pre-emptively dealing away next year's first rounder to gain a pair of 2's in this year's draft. Did it pay off? Let's have a look.

Infield

At first blush this collection looks like Miguel Cabrera and the 4 Lilliputians, but a closer examination reveals that this isn't a bad squad. Ryan Raburn may have co-won Worst Keeper of 2011, but he did hit 15 HRs last year in 371 AB's at a weak position, and is at worst replacement level. Aaron Hill is a fun bounceback candidate on the bench. Some platoon of the Michaels--Young and Cuddyer, which we'll just call Cuddyoung for now--should work at third base. And while I don't love Andrus as much as others, he should put up 30 steals. Which is good, because the rest of this infield is slow as hell.

Outfield

A strong collection that needs some luck in the health department. If he manages to play 150 games, Nelson Cruz is a great sleeper bet for the home run title and MVP, and is a favorite of mine. Shin Shoo Choo is Mr. Everything, which is perfect for the #2 slot in the outfield. More helpfully, his 400 OBP will offset the albatross that is Michael Bourn, who will contribute to two categories (runs and steals) and kill you in the other three. It's going to take a step up from someone like Gaby Sanchez or Cruz in the power department to offset the Bourn vacuum, because he's going to have to play--there are only 4 guys on this team that had double digit steals last year.

Starters

The top of the rotation is rock-solid in King Felix and Chris Carpenter. It's after that that things get a little dicier, as the Bruised Scrotums appear to have cornered the market in pitchers I don't like. My disinterest in Buchholz was already stated in the draft commentary. Ricky Romero had a nice 2011 but to me looks primed for a regression: another jump in innings, a low BAA (.242) and a team whose defensive may have regressed. Brett Cecil won 15 games last year, qualifying him for the Storm Davis Memorial Award for pitcher who gets the most wins in a season despite not being any good. And Gavin Floyd and JA Happ are Just Guys. So while not a bad set of players, it's a staff that I'm personally against.

Relievers

Apparently this team's owner has invested heavily in Johnson & Johnson, because if he intends to watch games for which his relief pitchers are playing, he's going to have 3 ulcers by Mother's Day. Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon are nominal closers and officially not particularly good pitchers. Andrew Bailey is a good pitcher that's hurt. And Brandon League is a decent pitcher that's closing for a few weeks until David Aaaaardsma returns. So yeah, there's quantity here, but not quality.

Outlook

The roster here is pretty top-heavy: Cabrera, Felix, Carpenter, Cruz and Choo are all top notch fantasy players. It's the presence of multiple guys who contribute to limited categories (Bourn, Andrus) or will kill their rate stats in the staff that has me concerned. At the same time, the presence of 5 stars can't be ignored. This looks to be a team that will hang around for a while but needs to add a couple of four-category contributors to make a real run for the money.

Season Preview: Jeters Never Prosper

2011-03-28T21:37:00.007-04:00

Up next on the preview conveyor belt is one of four teams using the same name as last year. Given none of this group finished higher than fifth place, you'd think someone would have rethought this strategy. Alas. Anyway, time for a look at Jeters Never Prosper.

Since winning the inaugural season and coming in second the following season, it's been something of a binary result for the Calcified Minkas. In the next seven seasons, they have a pair of 3rd place finishes, four finishes in either 6th or 7th, and one seemingly aberrant 9th place finish. You know what you're going to get with Jake's teams--a lot of veterans, some questionable starting pitchers, a few injury reclamation projects, and an odd infatuation with Derek Jeter for someone that's not a Yankee fan.

So what does 2011 have in store for the original champs? Let's have a look-see.

Infield

On their face the names look quite impressive: Prince Fielder, Joe Mauer, Derek Jeter, Aramis Ramirez and Ian Kinsler, with Justin Morneau in the DH slot for now. That group has won 2 MVPs, has made a combined 25 All Star teams, and this year will gross $88.1 million in salary. So why am I underwhelmed?

Let's start with injury concerns. In his 5 seasons, Kinsler has topped more than 130 games played once, and at that, only hit 144. If he's not healthy, he can't contribute. Morneau appears to have the same neurologist as Wayne Chrebet as it's still unclear when he'll be cleared to play from last July's concussion. While Mauer is great, as a catcher, he'll never play more than 140 games. And A-Ram, quietly, has missed 120 games over the last two years. The most reliable players for PAs are the team's best (Fielder) and worst (Jeter).

I would say let's look to their backups, except the only backup infielder is Scott Rolen, who has never been a paradigm of health and is 36 years old. (There's also Aubrey Huff's first base eligibility, but given that they have Fielder and Morneau, so what?) So while there's some nice potential for production here and no real sinkholes beyond Mr. November, you have to expect that they're going to need about 500-750 PA's from players currently not on their roster.

Outfield

Zero stars and zero scrubs. Angel Pagan had a nice year as the Mets' best outfielder last year, which is damnation by faint praise. Huff seemed to have found the fountain of youth last year, and should put up solid stats, and the same is true for Nick Markakis. And Jason Kubel is fine as your 4th outfielder. But the upside here appears to be league-average hitting. Unless Markakis finally explodes or Pagan takes an unexpected leap forward, we're not seeing big production from this crew.

Starters

In years past we've killed Jake for being cavalier with the risks he takes in the starting rotation. Last year I called it the "Aces and Flyers" method; in 2009, Teddy called it "Brandon Webb and a whole bunch of kids"; in 2008, Teddy dubbed it a staff "assembled by Bear Stearns" and "bordering on ridiculous."

But I'm hear to praise Jake, not to bury him. This year's staff is one of his best and has the potential to be one of the league's best. Jered Weaver remains an underappreciated ace and is a nice anchor. While I'm not as high on Dan Haren as my colleague, he's unquestionably a fine #2. John Danks, the Cum Dempster and Jair Jurrjens are all solid citizens. Brian Matusz and Jeremy Hellickson are potential aces in the making. Hell, even the flyers are defensible--if his arm stays attached, Anibal Sanchez is good, and what's wrong with playing the DL-stash game with Johan St. Johan?

Bullpen

This looked like an okay pen until Brian Wilson went down, but reports are that he should be fine in a week or two. If he is, then the 1-2 punch of him and K-Rod is perfectly fine. Jonny Venters and Evan Meek are interesting plays--they both are nice pitchers that need the closers in front of them to falter, and both Craig Kimbrel and Joel Pederast just might do that. Fun gambles.

Outlook

It's the pitching that leads me to think that this squad will be mildly frisky this year, as good starters plus decent contributions from the infield should lead the team being in contention. But the outfield needs to be upgraded substantially if they're going to compete--it's tough to see an Aubrey Huff-lead squad of outfielders contending for the title. What does give these guys some hope is the fact there's a lot of tradeable assets for a team building for 2012: Hellickson, Matusz, Santana and Jesus Montero are all guys that would fetch a bounty on the open market. So I forecast another middle of the pack finish unless a big move is made come June. That's up to the owner.

Season Preview: Cosmic Douchery

2011-03-25T15:11:00.007-04:00

I’m heading out of the country tonight, so this will be my last post until a few days after the season starts (by which point my team will have settled nicely into 8th place). But I wanted to get out a preview for Cosmic Douchery before I left, mainly because I view the owner as the mongoose to my snake (in a good way, honest). He always finishes ahead of me, even in years in which I hit the board, and I still haven’t forgiven him for serving as the Big Red Machine to my ’75 Red Sox by consigning my best-ever team to a second place finish a few years back.

I also mention the snake/mongoose thing because we apparently had the same guys circled on our draft sheets this year. I stole Chris Iannetta from him, and would have stolen Aaron Hill as well had he not been pre-ganked by Kicked in the Nuts. At first, that made me feel kind of good, in a moderately evil way. But that got me to thinking—if my team sucks, but CD’s owner still wants my players, might not his team also suck? Are we both destined to crash off the board this year, snake and mongoose alike run down by a combine harvester? Well, let’s see.

Infield

This is the group that’s going to determine the team’s fortunes this year. There’s talent in the OF; there’s talent in the rotation. But in the middle infield, there is Omar Infante and Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Also, in a move that most of you probably missed because it involved the last overall pick, John Buck has been installed as the starting C. Infante and Buck both were traded into a park that suppresses hitters, while Nishioka was traded into an entirely new country. If those three (or, you know, their replacements) can tread water, then the rest of the roster is good enough to prop them up. If not, it’ll be awfully tough to carry three anchors.

Now for the good news: Mark Teixeira and Adrian Beltre are also on hand, so there is strength at the corners. Side note: has any batter ever had a better three stage home ballpark progression than Safeco->Fenway->Arlington? If that keeps up, Beltre’s next team is going to play in a phone booth on the summit of Mt. Everest.

Outfield

Open your eyes, the worst is over. Josh Hamilton provides the foundation, having proven that he can carry a fantasy team despite being incapable of staying healthy for a full season. Andrew McCutchen is one of the real underrated guys in baseball—he'd be a household name if he played in, well, anyplace other than Pittsburgh. I’ve already expressed some doubts about PECOTA slut Chris Young, but he’s just fine as a third option. And Rajai Davis is also here as the designated burner, though the power outage up the middle might necessitate Luke Scott grabbing the DH spot at some point during the season.

Starting Pitching

Intriguing. We start, as you must, with the top three of Tim Lincecum, Francisco Liriano, and Max Scherzer, all of whom are still young and still quick. That’s a great top three, though as we’ve seen, starting pitching is now deep enough league-wide that plenty of teams have a good top 3. It’s the back half of the rotation where this team gets interesting. For those who believe in results, Carl Pavano and Ervin Santana are around. For those who believe in potential, post-hype sleepers Rick Porcello and Brandon McCarthy are here. And for those who believe in modern medicine, the unknown remaining percentage of Jake Peavy is here. There are hedges every which way. That, combined with the fact that this team is one of our Megapen squads this year and thus is not all that SP-dependent, mean there are plenty of matchup/platoon/hot streak options that the manager can choose among. For a manager with this sort of record of success, that bodes well.

Bullpen

[ee-ee-AH-oh-ooh] That’s the sound of a whole bunch of individually mediocre arms Transformer-ing into a Megapen. (Although since we’re talking about a bunch of small weak guys combining into a more powerful big guy, I suppose the correct ‘80s cartoon reference would really be Voltron. But I digress).

There’s not a single guy here you’d waste a life preserver on if he fell out of a boat. Joel Hanrahan, Frank Francisco (currently deputized by Octavio Dotel), Kyle Farnsworth, Kevin Gregg, and David Aardsma? Wow. I mean, this is supposed to be fantasy baseball, right? I don’t think there’s anyone who’d believe that group could fulfill any fantasies of any sort. Still, it is a shitload of closers. But this is really going to test the outer limits of the closer-centric approach that a couple of teams are trying this year. In fact, given the multiple save sources, this team could be the first in history to bench an active closer mid-year in order to preserve rate stats. I foresee a bunch of trades down the road involving this group.

Outlook

Every year, there is one team which comes away from the draft with a boom-or-bust roster. This is that team this year. It has kind of a weird roster as currently assembled—neither the offense nor the pitching is plug-and-play. They’re either going to find a formula early on and trade from strength to plug what should be some fairly obvious holes, or they’re going to struggle early and spend three months auctioning closers. But, look, the owner has finished 1, 3, 3, 3, 9, 2. You doubt that track record at your peril.

Season Preview: The Spam Avengers

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Next up in my somewhat rushed charge through my half of the season previews is last year’s champion, The Spam Avengers. This team found itself in an unusual position following the season, in that it had too many single-slot guys it wanted to keep. It’s supposed to be pretty well impossible to have that particular problem as the defending champion in a keeper league, so at first glance you’d have to assume that TSA are the favorites heading into this year as well.

League history backs up that first impression. Here are the year-after finishes for the previous winners of the league: 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 5. Only one team has failed to hit the board the year after a win, and that was last year’s version of the Torkies, who were coming off two straight wins and finally had to cut loose a bunch of high-slot guys from its dynastic squad. As noted above, that’s a very different situation from the one facing TSA heading into the offseason. So pretty much regardless of what we say below, the numbers say to pick TSA to hit the board this year.

Infield

The IF is anchored by two guys who each managed to complete the rare Double Leap last season: Robbie Cano and Joey Votto. Three years ago, Cano had an OBP of .305 and Votto was literally insane. Two years ago it seemed like both guys made the Leap: Cano added 11 additional HRs and 50 points of OBP, while Votto established himself as an everyday player. But then they both Leaped again last year: Cano added 25 or so RBI and yet another 30 points of OBP, while Votto went figuratively insane and was the non-Pujols division MVP. At this point, it seems like there are no more leaps left for these guys. But no more are really needed—even with a little regression, both guys would be near the top of the heap at their positions.

Ryan Zimmerman gives the team another guy whose performance has improved over the past few years, and gives good production at what has become a shallow position. To the extent there are question marks, they come at the other IF slots. Carlos Santana is coming in with Matt Wieter-level hype. TSA will have to hope that he doesn’t also provide Wieter-level production. At SS, Jimmy Rollins is one of the few guys on the roster who has been heading in the wrong direction over the past few years—one more anti-leap and he’ll be down to fantasy replacement level. But even these question marks can’t dampen the enthusiasm over a very strong squad.

Outfield

Here’s a fun question: what exactly is this team’s starting OF? Based on how things are currently arranged, it looks like three-category accumulators Jacoby Ellsbury, Drew Stubbs, and Nick Swisher are the chosen three. But Carlos Quentin, Jason Bay, and Manny Ramirez are also on hand, and you could see a future in which those three guys are the starters, at least while all three are healthy. Assuming good management and good luck on daily swaps, this group could be great.

Starting Pitching

Top heavy as a Barbie doll. It’s tough to argue with Cliff Lee, Clay Kershaw, and David Price up front. But there’s not much behind those three in terms of depth. Brett Myers had a quiet bounce-back season last year, but has an injury history and plays for a lousy team in a lousy park. Jorge de la Rosa was also dinged up last year, though his peripherals bode well for this season if he can stay healthy. Scott Baker is his own team’s #5 starter, so he’ll miss some starts, especially early on in the season when there are more off days.

And that’s it. There are 5.5 SPs on hand, with no room for additional flyers because of the logjam of outfielders described above. The roster imbalance might resolve itself as the year goes on, but for right now there’s not much margin for error down here.

Bullpen

Carlos Marmol aids the team by providing saves plus rate stats that won’t pull down the team average. Leo Nunez and Francisco Cordero are more accumulators, and neither is a lock to end the season as closer, given Florida’s budget woes and the looming presence of Aroldis Chapman in Cincy. If the back-end starters come through, the team can carry Nunez and Cordero’s rate stats; if not, the team might take a little step back from its insane ERA and WHIP performance from last year.

Outlook

This will not really come as a shock, but these guys are pretty good. That said, we do think the pitching staff as currently constituted is a little weaker than we had assumed on first glance—not weak, mind you, but maybe not the rate stat monster it was last season. Still, both the numbers and the walkthrough show this team is one of the favorites for this season.

Season Preview: Paging Dr. Rumack

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This is an interesting team to preview, especially because I think everyone had a little too much fun mocking some of its draft picks (Chris Ray, anyone?) to notice that there’s the makings of a good team here. But first, an authorial mea culpa: I didn’t get the new team name until a google search 30 seconds ago flipped the switch. Of course! Dr. Rumack from Airplane! Played, of course, by Leslie Neilsen, creating a lovely through-line to this franchise’s Enrico Palazzo era. Jesus, I am losing my touch for not getting that sooner.

above: Don't call his team 'Don't Call me Shirley'.

ANYWAY, like I said, this is a fun team which faces an interesting dilemma. The team’s hitting is likely to improve as the season goes on, because of an important positional eligibility change. Unfortunately, the team’s excellent pitching could decline as the year goes on, because they have exactly zero backups rostered. The team’s success will ultimately turn on whether the first trend can cancel out the second.

Infield

It is pretty much the Island of Misfit Toys up in here right now. Brian Roberts is still hurt at 2B, Juan Uribe is still Juan Uribe at 3B, and Stephen Drew is still one of the infuriatingly underperforming Drew brothers (or, as I like to call them, the “White Uptons”) at SS. Paul Konerko and Buster Posey are both coming off tremendous seasons last year. But I can’t figure out where the hell Konerko’s season came from, and am expecting some decline. There’s also not really anyone on the bench, unless you’re excited about Carlos Lee as a 1B option. (Note: you should not be excited about Carlos Lee as a 1B option.)

A lot of questions marks, then. But this group will be improved a few weeks into the season, when Kevin Youkilis gets his 3B eligibility, and is liberated from the DH slot. Youks will replace Uribe at 3B, and one of the team’s current bench OFs (probably Magglio Ordonez) will slide in at DH. Magglio > Uribe. So the goal early on will be to persevere until the real offense takes the field in May some time.

Outfield

Despite a poor spring, Carl Crawford still seems like a good #1 option. Although there’s a chance he’ll lose some SBs playing in Boston’s homer-heavy lineup, his power numbers could spike in Fenway. I think you can pretty much cut-and-paste the Paul Konerko comment onto Alex Rios (it might just be that there’s no power hitter New Comiskey can’t save). The last OF spot will be taken by one of Ichiro, Adam Jones, or Denard Span, at least one of whom ought to be able to provide SBs without tanking in the other categories. A good group, even if Rios comes back to Earth.

Starting Pitching

Tasty! In these previews, we usually start at the top of the rotation and work our way down. Here, though, it’s more instructive to start at the bottom by trying to identify the worst SP on this team. Is it Hiroki Kuroda? Tim Hudson? Ted Lilly? Those are all above-average pitchers. There aren’t many teams who can straight-facedly say that their worst starter is a good bet to be above average. That depth in the active rotation gives the Rumacks a legit advantage heading into the season.

The problem, though, is that there are exactly zero starters behind the active rotation. That means that if any of the pitchers get injured, one slot is going to get handed over to waiver-wire guys, who are necessarily coin flips. Some bad luck could damage the team’s rate stats. But that’s a problem for another day—right now, this group is a real strength.

Bullpen

Well, er, um . . . yeah. Skipping lightly over the Chris Ray sighting, Jordan Walden and Joel Peralta seem relatively unlikely to emerge as top-shelf closers this season, and could well de-merge into middle inning guys. Plenty of work to do here.

Outlook

The bullpen is a real problem right now—this team is looking at no more than 2 points in saves based on the guys he has currently rostered, and it’s real hard to hit the board while punting one category that badly. (For comparison’s sake, the fewest points any of the board teams got in any category last year was 5.) So these guys are basically rooting for their offense to hold together early and for one or more of the megapen teams to crater so that some closers become available. That is certainly a viable possibility. However, the presence of multiple “ifs” leads us to put these guys more in the second tier of possible contenders than up there with the league favorites.

Worst Keepers of 2011

2011-03-23T09:16:00.006-04:00

We had a first this year in our annual quest to determine the Worst Keeper of 2011: a tie. Ryan Raburn and Brandon Webb both received 5 votes, meaning that we have dual winners for this year. An honorable mention goes to Jason Kubel, who gets two votes despite me telling people to not vote for him. Congrats to the winners!

Season Preview: Rancho Carne Toros

2011-03-23T08:00:00.000-04:00

While it’s not one of the better-known binary population divisions out there, it is nevertheless true that the world can be divided into spreadsheet people and non-spreadsheet people. I am a spreadsheet person. Because of this, and because I spend way too much time tracking this league, I have a bunch of league-related spreadsheets laying around.

One of those spreadsheets is the engine behind the All-Time League Standings we roll out after each season. That particular spreadsheet contains lots of interesting info about the league. Accidentally, though, it has also revealed that my colleague is not a spreadsheet person. How can I tell? Because he pretty much breaks the all-time standings spreadsheet.

I mean, what is a spreadsheet supposed to conclude about a guy whose sorted ordinal finishes go 2-3-4-5-6-7-T9-12-12. Does he think he has to assemble a complete set of every possible finish? How can someone hit the board twice but also come in last twice? How someone twice put up 19 points in a season when the theoretical minimum is 12 points?

I guess the takeaways are that (1) this is not the easiest guy to predict and (2) he is not constrained by the usual statistical norms of the league. I think that trend will continue this year, because the Toros offense has a chance to be flat stupid.

Infield

Free fantasy advice: where possible, try to start your roster with the two best players in baseball. And hey, look, they’re both here! Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez form a fantastic platform, giving production in all five categories (and in Hanley’s case, at a thin position). Victor Martinez should also provide elite production at catcher, at least for one year, although the switch from Fenway to Comerica will slow him down a touch.

Those three are so good that the ominous presence of looming prospect bust Gordon Beckham and proven mediocrity Casey McGehee don’t bring me down nearly as far as they ordinarily would. All in all, a more than capable outfit, especially if they can get a useful platoon going at 3B or 2B.

Outfield

The Toros reached a little bit and grabbed Justin Upton #2 overall in the draft. Ordinarily, when a team reaches for a guy like that, his performance ends up making or breaking the season. Here, though, I think that the team fulcrum is Matt Kemp, not Upton. Kemp was down across the board last year, and the L.A. media ascribed his setback to some combination of the Seven Dwarf Descriptives of Lazy Journalism: dogging, choking, preening, loafing, spacing, griping, and (indirectly, of course) being African-American. I think it’s more likely that he was going through a natural consolidation season, and will shred the league again in ’11. If that’s right, Kemp will combine with Upton and Jay Bruce to make a group with more tools than a Lake Havasu partyboat. There is the potential for a LOT of offense here.

Starting Pitching

Of course, you can only get 60 points from offense. The Toros entered the draft with an entirely empty rotation, which he ended up filling in the grab-as-much-as-you-can style of a suburban Virginia grocery shopper the night before a predicted blizzard. The team ended up with a bunch of young arms, most of whom don’t have much of a track record in the bigs.

Yo Gallardo is here as the ace. I feel like everybody only figured out how good Gallardo is during this offseason—while he’s a cut below the Felixes and Halladays of the world, he’s a legit #1 guy. After that things get a little squiggly. I actually love Gio Gonzalez, but he’s a threat to walk 5 guys per 9 again this year; Ricky Nolasco is much the same. Matt Garza gives up a lot of balls in the air for a guy who’s moving to Wrigley, though the drop in comp from the A.L. East might counterbalance that. And despite showing signs at the end of last year, as of this particular moment in time, Homer Bailey is the pitching version of Howie Kendrick.

Jeremy Guthrie is also somehow present, despite the fact that he has a worse arm than Woody Guthrie, and has fewer tools than the rakes and shovels and implements of destruction possessed by Arlo Guthrie. There’s work to be done, and as I noted in the draft summary, a lot of juggling will be needed to keep this staff competitive.

Bullpen

The good news is that (unlike in years past) this franchise has multiple closers. The bad news is that one (Drew Storen) is a National and the other (Jose Valverde) is a Valverde. But there’s value in not just punting the category.

Outlook

Don’t look now, but this team could actually do some things this year. Two years ago, El Ang fell just short after mortgaging his future. Last year, he acquired a whole new future by trading everything that wasn’t nailed down. This year, he’ll be hoping that he can somehow find 35 pitching points to go along with his 55-point offense. Don’t count him out.