Transactions Analysis: Supreme Court Edition

With President Obama's recent selection of Second Circuit Judge Sonia Sotomayor to fill the vacant seat on the US Supreme Court, we here at the GRBG got to thinking about how the team owners in the league would break down along jurisprudential lines. So we're going to try to match up each team with its judicial doppelganger. How, you might ask, do we plan to do this when there are 12 owners and only 9 justices? Honestly, we're not sure. Let's all find out together, shall we? (Teddy)

In the past we've compared members of the league to actual baseball teams and dead Presidents, so why not take the next logical step? For our late August TA, when there's some really uninteresting moves being made, I suggest we do a TA comparing owners to dead rock stars. It's clear that Corey is the league's Freddy Mercury, and as for who's the equivalent of Left Eye Lopes...we'll keep you in suspense. Onwards with our SCOTUS march and insulting of transactions in general. (El Angelo)

Le Dupont Torkies

Signed: Coco Crisp (OF, Kellogg's), Oliver Perez (SP, NYM), John Smoltz (SP, BOS), John Baker (C, FLA), Jim Thome (DH, CHA)

Waived: Crisp, Glen Perkins (SP, MIN), Jed Lowrie (SS, BOS), Jason Varitek (C, BOS)

The Torkies keep steaming along, and spent the past few weeks stockpiling potential help for the second half of the season. John Smoltz is notionally a few weeks away, and Oliver Perez began a rehab assignment last week. Perez, of course, still has the handicap of not being very good, but Smoltz could be a fun toy while healthy this summer. For those wondering how the Torkies do it, one clue is to be found in the GP/IP columns in the standings--the Torkies rank second in GP by their hitters and second in IP by their pitchers. Can't win unless you play, boys.

So let's see here. This team's owner succeeds more through diligence than through any grand philosophical approach. At various points his team has been built around old guys, young guys, relievers, and hitters. In other words, while he might not be able to define what makes a good player, he knows one when he sees him. That approach, plus the owner's massive interest in pornography, makes Potter Stewart the obvious SCOTUS parallel here. (Teddy)

These moves only make sense if the defending champs follow them up by trading some of their surplus hitting to cure their holes on the offensive side of the ledger. While having a steroid-free Manny return in July will be nice, it also means they have another month and a half of Denard Span being their #2 outfielder, so it'd behoove them to start looking to deal for a hitter with a pulse. Unlike, say, John F'ing Baker. (El Angelo)

Flaccid Funiculi

Signed: Matt Palmer (SP, LAA)

Waived: Kyle Lohse (SP, STL), Jarrod Washburn (SP, SEA), Nyjer Morgan (OF, PIT)

Acquired Justin Verlander (SP, DET) and Shane Victorino (OF, PHI) and an 8th round pick; traded away Nick Swisher (OF, NYY) and a 1st round pick.

A nice roll of the dice by the newly named FF. The team is currently DAFL in steals, making Shane Victorino unusually valuable to them. Justin Verlander has been frustrating for most of the past season plus, though he has looked good recently. A bigger problem might be how to get Verlander innings, as FF is currently leading the league in IP (and GP) and is on pace to blow through the 1500 inning limit. By the by, this is an excellent bit of strategy move--go above pace to run up counting stats early, convince the other teams that they have no shot, and then cripple them by trading for their best players. Machiavellian. And trading the 1 next year won't hurt much if the pick stays in the 10-12 overall range--the pickings at that level have been slim over the past few years.

On to the court comp. Despite moments of madness (Mo Vaughn) and serving as a frequent target of mocking, this owner is sneaky, successful, smart, and friends with John Ashcroft. The fit is so perfect that we're willing to stretch past the SCOTUS bench to go with Robert Bork. (Teddy)

Absolutely love the judicial parallel and agree on the deal; the real notable pickup for them isn't Verlander, who methinks is about to crash back to reality, it's Victorino, who should net them 2-5 points in the steals and runs department. If you're going for it this year (and a team with three 4+ keepers is clearly going for it), then it's a deal you make. Nicely done. (El Angelo)

Mission Accomplished

Signed: Eric Stults (P, LAD), Mike Lowell (3B, BOS), Jason Kubel (OF, MIN)

Waived: Stults, Jim Johnson (P, BAL), Manny Parra (P, MIL), Jason Bartlett (SS, TB)

Acquired Nick Swisher and a 1st round pick; traded away Justin Verlander, Shane Victorino, and an 8.

My thoughts on the trade are pretty well handled above, so I only have two points here: (1) I assume you're only trying to win the whole thing at this point, because you had a shot to hit the board this year; and (2) Eric Stults is terribly underrated as an actor. If you're ever bored, go watch Fast Times at Ridgemont High again--he's one of Spicoli's entourage, along with a very young Nick Cage. The cast of that movie have won something like 8 Oscars at this point, which is the equivalent of the cast of Bring It On having racked up that many awards by 2030.

For the justice, we need someone Italian and smartassed who is never on the winning side, so Antonin Scalia is the clear choice. (Teddy)

Antonin Scalia has 9 children, one of which is a priest. I hope that's not the side of me you're comparing---my non-Christian wife would disagree strongly with that end result.

Regarding the trade, it looks like a dump and build for 2010, but it's actually not. I'm currently maxed out in W's and K's, and think Verlander's over the top. I also don't need Victorino; Kemp-Upton-Jones are better OF's, and there's no real difference between him and The Fukudome at this point for production. Hell, Swisher's as valuable in the power department. So it's subtracting little and adding a first round pick in the process, which granted, is probably going to be in the 9-12 range, but I see a deeper draft this coming year. It's also unclear how big a chance I actually have to win this thing (or even compete for money) this year; the price for closers on the trading market is so steep and my current level is such a product of Adam Jones and Pujols going apeshit. I wouldn't disagree with those who compared me to this year's Blue Jays squad. (El Angelo)

Unenviable Position

Signed: Dan Bard (RP, BOS), Emanuel Burriss (SS, SF), Mat Gamel (3B, MIL), Rick Porcello (SP, DET), Ramon Ramirez, (RP, BOS), Carlos Villanueva (RP, MIL), Jason Varitek (C, BOS), Elvis Andrus (Oops, Prospect List), Willie Bloomquist (SS, KC), Joel Pineiro (SP, STL)

Waived: Alberto Callaspo (MI, KC), Bard, Mike Lowell (3B, BOS), Villaneuva, Andrus, Bloomquist, Burriss, Edwin Encarnacion (3B, CIN)

Whew. That's a lot of movement for a team with one obvious problem: every starter not named Johan Santana shitting the bed simultaneously. Even I can't tell what I'm doing, so I'll just skip straight to the SCOTUS comp. As I am liberal, intellectually lightweight, and was once almost impeached by Gerald Ford, my best comp would be William Douglas. (Teddy)

Baloney--you've burned waiver priority on Daniel Bard, who you subsequently cut because he's a not ready for The Show middle reliever, and are currently giving PT to not only Touchdown Tim Wakefield, but also Jason Varitek, which would only be okay if it were 2003. It's not. You have clearly lost your brain and surroundings, and are becoming senile in your ripe old age. Couple this with your liberal stances and your latent narcissism, and your perfect comp is Frank Murphy. Deal with it. (El Angelo)

Aroids Anonymous

Signed: Brett Cecil (SP, TOR), Kenshin Kawakami (SP, ATL)

Waived: John Smoltz (SP, BOS), Koji Uehara (SP, BAL)

Not that I'm much better, but based on the above transactions it might be worth AA's time to watch a couple of games involving non-AL East teams. Who would be the best SCOTUS comp for a guy who is internationally focused and has access to odd European liqueurs? Stevens? (Teddy)

There's a lot of international flavor on this list, as Corey Cody Corey discards one Japanese guy for another, and picks up his usual token Maple Leaf in Brett Cecil, presumably because he can't find whatever rock Dave Stieb is trapped under. Both pickups actually are proto-Blue Jay, as Kawakami shut down the Blue Jays pretty well a week ago, which says more about a Toronto squad that's winless since Patriot's Day. But while it's clear these moves mean jack shit for the team's successes (or lack thereof), it's unclear which justice this equates to. I'm going with Bushrod Washington, just because the name is cool. (El Angelo)

Recalcitrant Cobbler

Signed: Dan Wheeler (RP, TB), Gary Sheffield (OF, NYM)

Waived: Sean Marshall (P, CHC), Jordan Schaefer (OF, ATL)

The cobblers got a lot older in a hurry with those transactions--Jordan Schaefer for Gary Sheffield? Yikes--which at least implies that they plan to make a run at the board this year. With Joe Mauer looking like the draft steal of the year, it's tough to argue with them. I do wonder whether the good two weeks they might wring out of Sheffield will be worth Schaeffer's future, though.

As for the comp, because we've now reached the precise middle of the league standings, we really can't go with anyone other than William Kennedy. (Teddy)

I actually am fine with the OF swap; Schaefer strikes me as a guy who's more useful on defense than offense, and so long as they properly cut bait with Sheffield the minute he turns or as soon as either Fat Squirrel gets healthy or Corey Hart gets a clue, they'll be in okay shape. But I mean that literally--cut Sheffield the MINUTE it looks dicey. You don't want him infecting your fantasy roster. (El Angelo)

Wu Tang Financial

Signed: Kiko Calero (P, FLA), Jason Bartlett (SS, TB), Kyle Lohse (SP, STL), Howie Kendrick (2B, LAA), Hideki Okajima (RP, BOS), Barry Zito (SP, SF)

Waived: Leo Nunez (P, FLA), Ian Stewart (IF, COL), Ricky Weeks (DL, DL), Dallas Braden (SP, OAK)

This just hasn't really been working so far this year, and the continuing refusal of the Orioles to promote Matt Wieters isn't helping matters. That on top of the season-ending injury to Ricky Weeks and continued baffling suckitude of Troy Tulowitski means this team's IF puts it in a pretty deep hole. On the other hand, it's not as though anyone is running off with 3d place so far this year.

On another note entirely, Jason Bartlett is running away with the Pewter Parachute. I feel like he has been one about half the teams in the league and it's still May.

SCOTUS choice? Ruth Bader Ginsburg. I can't really explain it, but it feels right, doesn't it? (Teddy)

Let's hope you didn't come up with Ruthy based on appearances. For those who haven't seen it, if you find yourself near the Columbia Law School, stop by and check out the oil portrait of Justice Ginsburg in the library, where they've accentuated her jowls to the nth degree. It's about as unflattering a portrait rendered since Picasso took on Gertrude Stein.

Also, I believe Bartlett has some stiff competition from Dan Wheeler and Edwin Encarnacion, but hey, there's a lot of ball left to be played. (El Angelo)

Evil League of Evil

Signed: CJ Wilson (RP, TEX), Juan Pierre (OF, LAD), Joe Nelson (RP, TB), Derek Holland (P, TEX)

Waived: Wilson, Chris Ray (RP. BAL), Jason Kubel (OF, MIN)

A friendly tip to any MLB drug enforcement employees who might have wandered by: did you guys check to see whether the Dodgers assigned Juan Pierre to Manny Ramirez's old locker and/or trainer? Because Pierre appears to have stumbled on some pretty good shit. It won't last, but his performance over the past few weeks mean ELoE wins this TA's award for best pickup. Joe Nelson is also a nice snag in the wake of Troy Percival's potential retirement. That would be pretty sweet, if one of my draft picks just retired rather than stay on my roster. Gives a man a warm feeling.

SCOTUS has to be somebody who parachuted on to the court from outside, dominated things for a while, and then stepped back to handle personal business. The best comp would be Earl Warren, who wasn't a judge or practicing attorney prior to joining the court, and certainly made a splash in his first decision as Chief Justice (Brown v. BoE, for those wondering). (Teddy)

This team has to be lining up the pieces for a trade, right? I mean, their bench has Matt LaPorta, Carlos Quentin (?), Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz and now, Derek Holland. They've got to be ramping up for a big deal, because there's a lot of rebuilders that would like those players. In the meantime though, these are decent if boring transactions that seem to indicate that EOE is biding his time until his guys get healthy or he can make a deal. Though given that he's spotting Tucker a 28-point edge at the moment, time may be nigh. (El Angelo)

wormcheese mousebird

Signed: Luke Scott (OF, BAL), Brian Bannister (SP, KC), Seth Smith (OF, COL), Todd Helton (1B, COL), Mark DeRosa (IF, CLE)

Waived: Jim Thome (DH, CHA), Andy Sonnenstine (SP, TB), Scott, Mike Fontenot (2B, CHC)

For reasons unknown the mousebirds celebrated their return to the east coast by attempting to rebuild their roster using only players from sub-.500 teams. An Oriole, a Royal, two Rockies, an Indian--only things missing were a Clipper and a Jet. I actually like the two OF pickups, as the production level of the average fantasy team's 3d OF hasn't been all that impressive this year, and there are marginal gains to be made there.

SCOTUS comp is easy: Brown Guy = Thurgood Marshall. (Teddy)

With all due respect to Scot picking up Joe Nelson, Ironhead wins for transactions of the week. On the same day (May 13th), he picked up Todd Helton and Seth Smith, who were, respectively, the backup quarterbacks to Peyton Manning and Eli Manning in college. Either that's the most ridiculous coincidence in fantasy history, or the Healer spent his time between jobs thinking of ways to get a TA shout out. Well done, sir. (El Angelo)

It's Enrico Pallazzo

Signed: Manny Delcarmen (RP, BOS)
Waived: Cory Wade (RP, LAD)

IEP continue to have the fewest transactions of any team in the league. There is a thin line between keeping a steady hand on the tiller and deluding youself into believing that you can just power the boat through an iceberg; IEP is dancing right on that line right now. As for SCOTUS, we need someone who is used to having a partner shape their decisions and who hasn't been all that active on the bench recently. Scalia sidekick and noted silent partner Clarence Thomas fits the bill. (Teddy)

This team's lineup has precisely 3 players that are fixtures: Ham-Ram at SS, Russell Martin at catcher, and Dan Uggly at second base. Everyone else is fairly fungible. So naturally their position player move it...picking up a second baseman? Huh? Color me befuddled by the whole thing, much like I'm befuddled at Thomas' refusal to ask questions at oral argument. Good parallel, Theodore. (El Angelo)
The Loose Bowels

Signed: Luke Hochevar (SP, KC), Brandon Wood (SS/3B, LAA), Jorge De La Rosa (P, COL), John Grabow (P, PIT)

Waived: Homer Bailey (SP, AAA), Mark DeRosa (MI, CLE), Yadier Molina (Molina, Molina) Hochevar, Wood

The Squishybums transaction list for the past few weeks contains no fewer than five add/drops involving players with that little NA next to their names. While fooling around with players who don't actually, you know, exist for purposes of the game might bring some intellectual reward, it's unclear how such a strategy will lead to the commish's first-ever money finish. Stay tuned, I guess.

For a SCOTUS pick we'd need somebody devoted to debating issues that don't actually exist. As a result I'd love to use Scalia again. But I don't want to cheat like that, so instead I'll go with someone with a similar background to this team's owner. As the commish is (I believe) a Latina from the Bronx, we can go with soon-to-be Justice Sotomayor. (Teddy)

You know, I was trying to figure out why this team was mired at the bottom of the heap. Reviewing the last few weeks' doings reveals that they tinkered with a bunch of over-hyped minor leaguers, dumped a Cardinal for no reason, added a Colorado pitcher with an ERA over 5, took a flyer on one of Pittsburgh's milleu of bad relievers, and signed the Twins' fourth outfielder. We may have found our answer. (El Angelo)

The Spam Avengers

Signed: Ben Sheets (SP, Nobody), Billy Butler (DH, KC)

Waived: Kyle Davies (SP, KC), Anthony Reyes (P, STL)

Signing a guy who is not currently under contract is usually a bad sign for a team's fortunes; this appears to be no exception. Much like the retiring David Souter, TSA appears to have had enough of this shit for the time being. (Teddy)

That's actually his best move this week. The other three players involved here have a combined VORP that's lower than Jeff Keppinger's 7.3. Enjoy rural New Hampshire, Alex. (El Angelo)

2009 Preakness Preview

Okay, a 50-1 shot (who was well over 100-1 in overseas books and exotics pools) won the Kentucky Derby. What do we make of this implausible upset?

After Mine That Bird's shocking victory in the Kentucky Derby, everyone has rushed to try to compare his victory to either Giacomo's win in 2005, Cannero II's victory in 1971, or Doneraile's 91-1 upset in 1913. Two of the three comparisons are utterly wrong. Doneraile may as well have run in the Middle Ages; the horse ran 62 times in his career. Giacomo, as previously noted, basically won by default on a day where Afleet Alex and Bellamy Road turned in subpar performances, and nobody else stepped up to the plate. While it wasn't surprising that Giacomo only won one other race after that, it also wasn't a shocker that he finished in the money in the Derby. Before the Derby, Giacomo had shown some ability in graded stakes races and head been keeping good company. We actually know people who bet Giacomo in trifectas and superfectas. By contrast, only person we know that cashed a ticket on Mine That Bird is Angelo's mother, who pulled out of a hat a $10 win ticket on the horse at a Derby party.

Cannonero II is an interesting comparison, because like MTB, he was dismissed based on losing races at crappier tracks (in Venezuela, for crying out loud), and shocked everyone by being better than thought on Derby Day. He carried this over to the Preakness, before flopping in the Belmont and having an undistinguished career afterward. The problem with the Cannonero II comparison is that there wasn't an obvious reason for the horse's win besides talent. Mine That Bird, by contrast, clearly took advantage of a muddy track and a superb ride from Calvin Borel. Had the track come up fast on Derby day, it's likely that Mine That Bird would have run well, but not won.

So what else did we learn from the Derby besides that Mine That Bird likes the slop and is a better horse than his PP's showed? Shockingly little. The muddy track clearly impacted other horses as well, as absolutely nobody showed any improvement in the race, and most horses regressed. It's very reminiscent of 2004, where a storm annihilated the track an hour before the race, and everyone besides Smarty Jones and Lion Heart ran like garbage as a result. Which makes handicapping the Preakness even harder, because we still have no real answers on our synthetic surface questions and are presented with some interesting new shooters this time.

So even though we flopped miserably on handicapping the Derby, let's turn the page and do a countdown for the Preakness. We note that we've picked the winner of the last two Preaknesses, meaning that the safe play is probably boxing the first four horses we eliminate. For the record, we're making these picks assuming the track is fast; if it rains, we'll update it the day of with some thoughts and changes.

Huh?

13. Flying Private. As we'll explore a little later, there's good reason to think the slop at Churchill Downs hid the true ability of at least one of the horses that ran in the Derby. This guy isn't him. To put it bluntly, he ran dead last in the Derby and was a longshot to begin with based on a career where he accomplished nothing. There's zero indication that he should improve by moving to Maryland. For all the hullabaloo over whether Rachel Alexandra would be excluded based on ringers being entered, people should be more focused on Lukas potentially ruining a perfectly decent horse in the Triple Crown, yet again.

The Wrong Newcomers

12. Tone it Down. This year's local hope for the scions of Maryland, he faded to third in the Federico Tesio stakes two weeks ago to finish behind the immortal Miner's Escape and Hehasnosay. His speed figures are slow enough that he's not competitive (then again, so were Mine That Bird's), but more problematically, he's outclassed and should get fried on the front end. Pass.

11. Luv Gov. If the name sounds familiar, it's because we briefly mentioned this guy last summer as one of two horses owned by racing doyenne Marylou Whitney that pays tribute to the erstwhile governor of New York. (Check out this piece, where Whitney's husband tries to admit that they don't hate Spitzer, and then commits a bigger party foul by admitting that they read the New York Post.) While he ran nicely breaking his maiden on the Derby undercard, there's good reason to think that was a function of the slop and no real reason to think he'll be competitive at this level.

10. Big Drama. A lot of people are giving this newcomer a big shot in the Preakness, but we're just not seeing it. He's been out once this year, where he crossed the finish line first in the Swale (at 7 furlongs, 2 1/2 shorter than the Preakness), but was DQ'd to second for bumping the runner up while tiring in the stretch. His previous successes were in Florida statebred races and at the Delta Jackpot, which is Louisiana's equivalent of the now-esteemed Sunland Derby. While Mine That Bird did teach us a lesson about scoffing at stakes at slots-fueled tracks, we still don't see much class in this horse. To top it off, he's an intractable front-runner and has pure sprint breeding (Montbrook out of a Notebook mare) that doesn't suggest he'll stay the distance against good horses. We like him as a toss-out, which is good, because he'll probably be around 8-1.

The Derby Repeaters

9. General Quarters. There appear to be two strategies for this horse: either send him to attend to the pace and have him try to waltz home after being near reasonable fractions, or have him make one run later, and watch him finish badly. Given that he probably can't survive a speed duel, and jockey Julian Leparoux is more known for patient rides (a la Pat Day, the Good Hands Man), it's more likely we'll see him at the rear of the field, and out of contention.

8. Friesan Fire. The beaten Derby favorite! While many will invoke Louis Quatorze, Point Given and Afleet Alex as examples of Derby underperformers that roubounded in the Preakness, we're against. We had an almost identical situation two years ago, where Circular Quay ran poorly in the Derby off a long layoff and then was rushed into the Preakness. How'd that fare? Poorly, he was well out of the money and looked like a short horse. Making FF's case worse, he's supposedly a slop monster, but did nothing in the soup at Churchill except get his beat up on his legs from contact with other horses while finishing next to last. As there's no indication that this horse is anything special away from Fairgrounds, we'll bet against until he proves us wrong, especially if he's 6-1 or so.

7. Musket Man. While we'd argue the slop changed the outcome for a lot of horses in the Derby, we're not so sure that's the case here, as this horse ran roughly what you'd expect him to run: a high 90's GSF while showing no punch in the stretch. It just so happened that because I Want Revenge scratched and nobody besides the winner ran a lick that this made him the show finisher. We're still unconvinced this guy wants any part of a route race, and while he'd be a fun horse to own, we think he's set here to regress and vacation until the late summer stakes races.

6. Mine That Bird. Yes, he's better than everyone thought. He's got some talent and his horrible rides in New Mexico clearly made him appear worse than he was. But it's impossible to dispute that he didn't get a perfect confluence of events on Derby day. A solid pace. A wet track. The scratch of I Want Revenge and Quality Road's withdrawal. A perfect ride by Borel. Luck when the rail was open pretty much the whole way around. Take away any of those things, and we're probably talking about a different winner of the Derby and he's this year's version of Sedgefield.

Is he going to get all of those breaks again? Clearly that's impossible, because Borel isn't riding him, and he instead gets salty veteran Mike Smith in the irons. While Smitty's a perfectly fine jockey and a Hall of Famer, we can't think of a single race where he was the difference between winning and losing. (And he's ridden Skip Away, Holy Bull and Zenyatta, for crying out loud.) Even worse, it's unlikely that we'll have a wet track again, and it's even less likely that he'll get a perfect rail-skimming trip . What's more likely is that his Preakness resembles Giacomo's: clunk up for a piece, but never threaten the winner.

5. Pioneerof the Nile. Minor and useless prediction: this horse, and not Mine That Bird, will be the second choice in the Preakness. He's a horrible idea at 5-2, as we still have zero proof that he can crack a 100 Gowanus Speed Figure, still hasn't proven he likes dirt, and is wheeling back off two weeks after having all his prior races strategically spread apart. It's unlikely he'll be at the back of the pack come the end of the race, but this is not the spot to jump on his bandwagon.

The Interesting Newcomers

4. Take the Points. Speedster from the Todd Pletcher barn with very obscure breeding (Even the Score out of a Fred Astaire mare?), this guy's an interesting read who may offer value underneath if he doesn't get fried on the front end. He possesses good tactical speed but isn't a need-the-lead horse (unlike, say, his stablemate Join in the Dance), and should be near the front. His last two dirt efforts were very good: a nice win in the mud, followed by a strong showing in an allowance race at Gulfstream. He followed that up with a pair of mediocre efforts on a synthetic surface, which Pletcher pretty clearly sent him to so to avoid Pletcher's other horses. Can he improve moving back to the dirt at 30-1? We say yes, and like him to round out superfectas.

3. Terrain. We've been waiting for this horse to get a dirt fast track for a while now, and we're finally going to get our wish. Too bad it's in the Preakness, where he might be a little outclassed. But our like for him is not dissimilar to our reasonsing for liking West Side Bernie in the Derby (yeah, that sucked, but shaddup): he hasn't had a fair shake to run well in a while. His Delta Jackpot race to close out 2008 was compromised by a moronic ride his jockey sucked him into a speed duel, making him fade. His Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass weren't awful, but they occurred, respectively, on slop and Polytrack, neither of which is probably his optimal surface. Finally, he's united with a competent rider, a fast track, and should get first run on the deep closers like Mine That Bird. Look for him to come flying late at a huge price.

2. Rachel Alexandra. Okay, we'll say it: Rachel Alexandra is this year's Big Brown. She's a very talented filly, but her reputation is beyond her accomplishments at the moment, given that she's won a whopping one Grade 1 race, her 20 1/4 length romp in the Oaks last out. And as pointed out by many (including Steve Crist), the field for the Oaks, like last year's Derby field, was atrocious. This makes it pretty tough to gauge if this girl is really a freak like everyone thinks or is simply another very good horse that got lucky that her competition stinks.

More to the point, she's being asked to do a lot here. Take on 12 other horses. Run back in two weeks time. Tend to a pace that should be somewhat brisk. Adjust to a new trainer (okay, this may not be a big factor). And for all this we're supposed to take 2-1 odds? Look, if she wins and she's the next Ruffian, Go For Wand, or even Surfside, we'll eat crow and admit it. But for now, she's a horrible play at short odds in the Preakness, and we're looking elsewhere for the win slot.

(As a total aside, Rick Reilly gets paid $3.5 million apparently to get the facts wrong. By no measure is Rachel Alexandra "the fastest racehorse in the world". Hell, she's not even the fastest filly in the world, that title would probably go to either Goldikova or Zenyatta. She's not "undefeated in four tries", she's 4-for-4 this year and is 7-for-10 life time. But hey, great job otherwise.)

The Pick

1. Papa Clem. We have no idea how much horses like Pioneerof the Nile were hurt by the slop. By contrast, we do know this guy was hurt by the slop. His Louisiana Derby was a definitively meh effort on a wet surface, which he followed up with a good win in the Arkansas Derby on a fast track (he improved by over 10 GSF points in between). Given that history, it wasn't really a surprise to see him run a meh 4th in the Derby in the mud, especially since he was slammed by Pioneerof the Nile in the stretch and may have finished 2nd with a slightly cleaner trip. It's not at all a stretch to think he'll return to his Arkansas Derby form, which would have everyone not named Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra playing catch up with him. Since we're against those two because of the lack of slop and the suspect nature of the filly's competition, he's the most logical pick, and should be a square price (8-1?).

Playing the Race

Once again, if you like anyone in this race, a win bet is a very good way to go, because everyone other than Rachel Alexandra should be an okay price, if not commensurate with their chances of winning. If you're looking for a 4-digit payday though, check out the races preceding the Preakness and look into Pick 3's an Pick 4's. Tossing Rachel Alexandra and Pioneerof the Nile will inflate the odds in the multi-race exotics tremendously, even if you catch a couple of favorites early on. And to make it formal, our official picks:

1. Papa Clem
2. Terrain
3. Take the Points
4. Rachel Alexandra

Good luck to all and enjoy the race!

Lastings Milledge, NL All-Star

As some of you know, I post a fair amount over at Sons of Sam Horn. Usually I keep my SoSH stuff out of the GRBG, because I don't want this to turn into the four-zillionth Red Sox blog out there. Recently, however, SoSH has come up with a cause that is equal parts diabolical and stupid, one which we at the GRBG endorse with all four thumbs available at our disposal.


The cause is simple--get AAA outfielder and aspiring rapper Lastings Milledge elected as the token All-Star representative for the execrable Washington Nationals. The idea began in this thread, in which a number of Sox fans adopted the Nats in all their anti-splendor as their NL rooting interest for the season. That led to a discussion about the Nats' inexplicable decision to send Milledge to the minors when (1) the Nats were pretty much already a minor league team themselves, and (2) the team had previously been so high on Milledge that it had submitted his name to appear on the '09 All-Star ballot.

That in turn led to a grass-roots movement to send Milledge, an actual minor leaguer, to the ASG as the rep for the functionally minor league Nats. The cause has already been endorsed by Joe Posnanski, Keith Law, and some guy who blogs for the NBC affiliate in DC. It's time for the GRBG to get in on the ground floor.

How can you help? Easy. Go to MLB.com and vote for Milledge all 25 times you're allowed. Only by getting Milledge elected to the All-Star team can we erase the shame of him having been drafted and traded for by notionally competent owners in the league so far this year. Get on board--it's the year of Thrilledge.

Transactions Analysis: Spring Cleaning Edition

After 5 years of doing these TA's, it's clear that a pattern of transactions has emerged. The first TA is usually replete with people undoing the mistakes made late in the draft, patching some spring training holes usually caused by DL injuries, and dropping players who didn't make it out of camp. While this usually isn't the highest talent TA, it's chock full of rational moves and often, it's lateral movement at worst.

It's the second TA that has some of the worst players you'll see all year: relievers that are battling it out for closer's positions, guys that you've never heard of having career months, pitchers with 2 good starts suddenly looking like aces, abominable catchers being unearthed to fill in for injured regulars, utility players used to patch holes, and worst of all, guys who get hurt every year and will never, ever, ever survive past Memorial Day. We're at that point. Let's celebrate the crapiness. (El Angelo)

I like to think of every TA as a celebration of crapiness but you're right, this time of year is generally the ebb tide. On the positive side, I am about to order the public execution of a randomly selected member of my pitching staff in the hopes that their morale will improve. I know mine would. (Teddy)


It's Enrico Palazzo

• Signed Russell Branyan, 3B , Seattle [5/4]

There really is no better sign of desperation than last year's Place finisher signing Russell F'ing Branyan. Actually, I'm wrong: they're starting him, presumably because Carlos Guillen is broken and Adrian Beltre, well, is Adrian Beltre. And it's not like this was unforeseeable. (Note: in light of how well my Derby picks went, I will be shamelessly promoting anything I've ever written that was remotely near correct in this TA.) Anyway, Branyan as a patch is passable, I suppose, but if this team's serious about escaping the basement, they're going to need a real player for the hot corner. (El Angelo)

Branyan has been going through a good patch as the pretty much everyday 1B for Seattle. Branyan's contact skill are generally . . . limited, but he has enough power to be useful over the very short term. (Teddy)

Unenviable Position

• Signed Latroy Hawkins, RP, Houston; Released Andy Laroche, 3B, Pittsburgh [4/17]
• Released Hawkins; Signed Mike Lowell, Testicular Wonder, Boston [7 hours later]
• Signed Jason Barlett, SS, Tampa [4/18]
• Signed Yadir Molina, C, St. Louis; Released Jeff Mathis, C, Anaheim [4/22]
• Released Bartlett; Signed Ramon Ramirez, RP, Cleveland [4/24]
• Released Molina; Signed Touchdown Tim Wakefield, SP, Boston [4/25]
• Signed Nick Johnson, 1B, Washington; Released Joe Blanton, SP, Philly, Dan Wheeler, RP, Tampa and Cristian Guzman, SS, Washington [5/6]

There's a lot of garbage-in-garbage-out here, which I'll happily let my co-author delve into if he's so inclined, which hopefully, will include an explanation as to why he dumped Latroy Hawkins a mere 7 hours after picking him up and after he had a decent outing and for Mike Nutsack. (Random guess: he's had enough of seeing Mark Reynolds strike out with men on.) There's a lot more rifling through crap, but the end result is getting rid of some crappy players to add to your roster Lowell, Nick Johnson (quintessential always hurt guy), and for some reason, Tim Wakefield. Of all these moves, the Wakefield one is the oddest, not because he's not useful, but where's the upside here? I get that you're looking for innings to lower your rate stats, but the odds to Touchdown Tim putting your team above 8th place are minimal. I would've prefered to see a flyer on a younger arm with talent. (El Angelo)

Ah, but I've already taken on several young arms--like Ubaldo Jimenez and Anibal Sanchez--who have proven only marginally better flyers than Corey Lidle. What I need right now is for somebody to not suck horribly until the rest of the staff rights the ship. Wakefield is on a roll right now; if I can squeeze 15-20 more good innings out of him before the crash, I'll take it. (Teddy)

The Spam Avengers

• Signed Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida; Released Aaron Rowand, OF, San Fran [4/20]
• Released Joey Devine, Broken RP, Oakland [4/22]
• Signed Joe Beimel, RP, Washington; Released Delmon Young, OF, Minnesota [4/28]

Four years ago, everyone was high on Jeremy Hermida, and while before this year he wasn't a bust, he wasn't particularly good either. But he seems to have come around in 2009. Will we be saying the same thing about Delmon Young in 2013? (El Angelo)

In 2013 Delmon will be working as his brother Dmitri's butler. Dmitri's triple cheeseburgers don't just fetch themselves. (Teddy)

The Loose Bowels

• Signed Mike Jacobs, 1B, Kansas City; Released James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles [4/23]
• Signed Shawn Marcum, SP, Toronto; Released Grant Balfour, RP, Tampa [4/25]
• Released Jacobs; Called up Travis Snider, OF, Toronto from the prospect list [4/26]
• Signed Dave Bush, SP, Milwaukee; Released David Purcey, SP, Toronto [4/28]
• Signed Yadir Molina, C, St. Louis; Released Ryan Theriot, SS, Chicago (NL) [4/30]
• Signed Theriot, AGAIN, and Homer Bailey, SP, Louisville Bats; Released Marcum and Jason Motte, RP, St. Louis [5/5]

The Commish saved himself from an unnecessary tirade, because dumping James Loney for Mike Jacobs is possibly the easiest example of running up your transaction count. Is there actually a difference between the two players? Fortunately, he saved the TA by dumping Jacobs for Travis Snider, who's the best prospect called up to date (I'll ignore a Nick Adenhart joke here), but may fall back on the list when Wieters finally shows up in Baltimore. Though he'll probably be ahead of Madison Bumgartner, who will be playing in the majors in 2015.

What's more interesting is that Jason Motte was a 4th round pick in this year's draft and has been cut, which I believe makes him the highest-picked player to reach the waiver wire. If you want to know why this team's struggling, one key reason has to be that their early picks have been disasters. Of the top 6 players picked, 3 are on the DL (Lackey, Zambrano, Duchsherer) and one is Jason Motte. For that matter, this team's next 5 picks aren't on their current roster either; it's only when you get to 12th-rounder Colby Rasmus that you see signs of productivity. The Diarrheatics are going to have to work the waiver wire to make up some ground. (El Angelo)

[Slow claps] That is legit analysis there. Plus, as a bonus, uou've actually made me feel better about having missed on only 3 of my top 5 picks. Bless you. (Teddy)

wormcheese mousebird

• Signed Marlon Byrd, OF, Texas; Released Dennys Reyes, RP, Baltimore [4/16]
• Signed Endy Chavez, OF, Seattle [4/17]
• Signed Hank Blalock, 3B, Texas [5/1]
• Released Chavez & Byrd; Signed Michael Bourn, OF, Houston and Mike Fontenot, 2B, Chicago (NL) [5/5]

While on this squad, Marlon Byrd put up one of the more ridiculous stat lines since Mariano Duncan retired: he went 9/30 for a .300 batting average, but had an OBP of .290. And amazingly, cutting him was only the second best move this team make this period, because it also cut Endy Chavez, perhaps realizing too late that catches are not a category. (El Angelo)

I am stunned to learn that Byrd and Chavez, both of whom contribute steals while failing massively at everything else, were briefly on the same roster. That is the fantasy equivalent of simultaneously wearing a belt and suspenders to hold up pants made of plastic wrap; your success at keeping the steals up pales massively in comparson to the shame of walking around with your useless junk visibly cryo-vacced for the world to see. (Teddy)

Wu Tang Financial

• Signed Kevin Millwood, SP, Texas; Released Andrew Miller, SP, Florida [4/20]
• Signed Dallas Braden, SP, Oakland; Released John Maine, New York (NL) [4/26]
• Signed Casey Blake, 3B, Los Angles; Released Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Cincy [4/28]
• Signed Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado and Michael Wuertz, RP, Oakland; Released Brandon Lyon, RP, Detroit and Kaz Matsui, Nutripper, Houston [5/3]

It's not often you get the chance to pick up two Opening Day starters. It's also not often you get to do this and hurt your team in the process. I don't like Maine that much this year, what with the injury concerns and the fact the league seems to have figured out that he has one pitch, but Dallas Braden isn't any good either. Kevin Millwood, somehow, has 145 career wins. If you ever needed proof that wins were a meaningless category, here's your poster boy. (El Angelo)

I can't endorse the pickup of anyone named "Dallas". Or at least not the pickup of a pitcher named Dallas; if you want to pick up a stripper named "Dallas" that might be OK. So maybe it's better to say that I can't endorse the fantasy pickup of anyone named Dallas. Unless, I guess, it's your fantasy to pick up a stripper named Dallas, in which case a fantasy pickup would be OK too.

I'm starting to confuse myself, so I'll just close by noting that Kevin Millwood sucks. (Teddy)

Evil League of Evil

• Signed Phil Hughes, SP, New York (AL); Released Chris Ray, RP, Baltimore [4/22]
• Signed Scott Richmond, SP, Toronto; Released Ollie! Perez, SP, New York (AL) [4/26]
• Signed Latroy Hawkins, RP, Houston; Released Brett Gardner, OF, New York (AL) [4/29]
• Signed Julian Tavarez, RP, Washington; Released Kenshin Kawakami, SP, Atlanta [4/30]
• Signed Doug Davis, SP, Arizona [5/1]
• Released Davis; Signed Danys Baez, RP, Baltimore [5/4]
• Released Baez; Re-signed Ray [5/5]
• Released Tavarez; Signed Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota [5/5]

The '05 champs are repeat players on Reliever Roulette, and after it all, appear to have landed on a pair of firemen from last-place squads with unsettled closer situations: Chris Ray, who has good stuff but is fragile, and Julian Tavarez, who compared the Washington Nationals to a drunken fat chick at 3 am. Neither is likely to lead to anything except hurled remote controls. Infinitely better is their moves with starters; Phil Hughes appears to have figured himself out, and is going to get a rotation slot thanks to C.M. Wang's implosion, and Scott Richmond, improbably, has morphed into Roy Halladay's spawn. Nice swag. (El Angelo)

I like the Hughes pickup a lot, especially if the ELoE limit his usage to starts occurring outside the confines of the the Salvatore P. Esposito Memorial Little League Field that the taxpayers of NYC got suckered into building in the Bronx. (Teddy)


Mission Accomplished

• Signed Todd Coffey, RP, Milwaukee; Released Fausto Carmona, SP, Cleveland [4/19]
• Signed Jason Frasor, RP, Toronto; Released Carlos Villanueva, RP, Milwaukee [4/21]
• Signed Manny Parra, SP, Milwaukee [4/25]
• Signed Jason Bartlett, SS, Tampa [4/27]
• Released Coffey; Signed Howie Kendrick, 2B, Anaheim [4/28]
• Signed Kiko Calero, RP, Florida; Released Billy Wagner, Broken RP, New York (NL) [5/3]
• Released Calero; Signed Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore [5/4]

I'm as guilty as anyone for violating many tenets that I said were awful about the second TA: bad relievers about, guys off to a hot start that suck (Bartlett), and fluke pitchers. My only defense on Bartlett is the injury bug hit me at SS, and he's the least bad option. Stupidly, I'm actually happy to get Parra, who I think may not suck. (El Angelo)

Has any player broken more hearts in this league than Howie Kendrick? Every year some TV announcer will claim that Kendrick is going to win a batting title some day, and every year he gets hurt, and his owner has to wait 'til next year. That said, at some point we're going to have to ask whether Kendrick's repeated injuries have distracted us from his innate suck: his career-high OBP is .347, and he's never projected to hit more than 10 HRs even if he was able to play a full season. He's reaching that backup-QB territory where the less he plays, the better he looks. (Teddy)

Aroids Anonymous

• Signed David Aardsma, RP, Seattle; Released Manny Parra, SP, Milwaukee [4/17]
• Signed Andrew Bailey, RP, Oakland and Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto; Released Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City and Howie Kendrick, 2B, Anaheim [4/19]
• Signed John Buck, C, Kansas City; Released Taylor Buchholz, SP, Coloado [4/21]
• Released Buck; Signed Rod Barajas, C, Toronto [5/3]

Does it speak ill of my team that I picked up both Kendrick and Parra, or does it speak poorly of AA that they dropped them both? Also kids, feast your eyes on crappy catcher syndrome! As far as Corey's concerned, Ryan Doumit cannot heal fast enough. (El Angelo)

See above. (Teddy)

Elbow Your Funicular?

• Signed Jarrod Washburn, SP, Seattle; Released Orlando Cabrera, SS, Oakland [4/22]
• Signed John Grabow, RP, Pittsburgh and Nyjer Morgan, OF, Pittsburgh; Released Fred Lewis, OF, San Fran and Scot Shields, RP, Anaheim [4/23]
• Released Grabow; Signed Ryan Madson, RP, Philly [4/28]
• Claimed John Maine, SP, New York (NL) off waivers; Released Emilio Bonafacio, 2B, Florida [4/29]

It's probably small potatoes in the grand scheme of things, but wasting your waiver priority on John Maine strikes me as frivolous. Hell, it actually strikes me as a dereliction of duty. Trust me, you don't really want Maine, and you certainly don't want a chance to get Justin Smoak to be frittered away by getting Maine.

As for the rest of the players here, Nyjer Morgan is another guy I've never heard of, and as Teddy has noted in the past, there's an excellent chance that he's either a computer generated character (it's not like anyone watches Pirates games anyway), or is a villainous southpaw from Catcher With a Glass Arm. Personally, my favorite Matt Christopher book is The Kid Who Only Hit Homers, but to each their own. (El Angelo)

There was one Matt Christopher book about a peewee QB who excelled by working out optimum game strategy on a computer sim program. Even at age 9 that struck me as so wildly improbable that it immediately became my favorite book of his.

Thinking back, I believe a subplot of that same book revolved around a word game in which kids came up with synonyms for a rhyming couplet, and then tried to stump their friends by asking them what the original couplet was;. The biggest stumper was "Odorous Hobo", the solution to which turned out to be "Fragrant Vagrant". Now that I see all this in black and white, I realize that my Mom might just have left me in the car too long with the engine running that summer.

Oh, and Nyjer Morgan is a speed guy who came up in the Pirates system and will have been dumped for new starting OF Juan Pierre by the next TA. (Teddy)

Recalcitrant Cobbler

• Signed Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Cleveland; Released Troy Glaus, 3B, St. Louis [4/20]
• Signed Brandon Wood, SS, Anaheim; Released Hank Blalock, 3B, Texas [4/21]
• Released Wood; Signed Sean Marshall, SP, Chicago (NL) [5/1]

The team churned through a few third basemen to find out that they're all infinitely worse than the one they already have (Aubrey Huff), and besides, this offense is so potent at the moment that there's no need to add players (though Cabrera's not an awful bench addition). The Marshall Plan strikes me as sort of an odd idea to add pitching though; his peripherals are a little better than his actual stats, but not to the point where he's a gem obscured by crappy hitting or bad BABIP. That said, this team needs a little boost in starting pitching, and Marshall's definitely a better idea than J.A. Happ or the dessicated remains of Joel Piniero. I'll call it useful if unimportant, which is probably how most would describe a TA, and the exact opposite of how everyone would characterize my Derby picks. (El Angelo)

Don't worry, Ang--next year we'll just note how you've correctly picked something like 4 of the past 8 Triple Crown races, and coveniently bury this year's Derby result. How do you think Jim Cramer does it? (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Signed Jason Varitek, C, Boston and Dontrelle Willis, SP, Detroit [4/19]
• Signed Jed Lowrie, 3B, Boston; Released Dionner Navarro, C, Tampa [4/26]
• Signed Ben Zobrist, SS, Tampa; Released Khalil Greene, SS, St. Louis [4/30]

The above transactions and time wasters (Jason Varitek? Do you know it's not 2002?) ignore the real big news for the Defending Champs: the loss of Manny Ramirez until early July because he's taking pills for menopausal women. As the team has no outfielders on the bench, and the best available healthy OF is either Ryan Spillborghs or Melky Cabrera, it's safe to say there's an opening to catch the leaders. (El Angelo)

You know, you say that, but Melky has been kicking the shit out of the ball. The way that good things tend to happen to this franchise, don't be surprised if Melky C. hits like Miggy C. for the next six weeks, especially with the Thurman Munson Memorial Landing Strip out there in RF at the new stadium. You read it here first. (Teddy)