2018 Breeders Cup Preview Part 2: Saturday's Races

Now THAT'S more like it - we picked three winners on Friday's card, and tapped Jaywalk as someone with a big shot.  So let's get right back on the horse - there are nine races to get through, so let's jump right in with more tremendous opinions.

Filly and Mare Sprint

Synopsis: 7 furlongs on the dirt for the ladies.  Somehow this race has become the one we've picked the best over the last few years.  We tabbed winners Judy the Beauty ('14) and Wavell Avenue ('15) - the latter at 13-1.  Two years ago we picked Finest City for second; she won at 9-1.  Last year we went out on limb with Ami's Mesa, she lost by a nose at 18-1 (to Bar of Gold, who was 70-1 and we noted was interesting).  This probably means our picks will run 8th, 9th and 12th.

Favorite: He only has horses in 3 races on Saturday, but Bob Baffert looks to get the day started off with a winner in deserving favorite Marley's Freedom, who exits and easy victory in the Ballerina at 7 furlongs.  She's had a solid season, but really went to another level when Baffert took over her training mid-season and then rattled off three wins.  Ignore at your own risk.

Interesting Longshot: Price play Miss Sunset may get forgotten in the wagering but isn't without a chance.  She's 2-for-4 at the 7 furlong distance and a key requirement in this race is success at the distance.  Her start earlier this year at Keeneland where she was nosed out by Finleysluckycharm (who's also here, and will be half the price) would make her competitive if the favorite falters.

Betting Strategy: Either single or spread, depending on how much you like Marley's Freedom.  We are not at all interested in second-choice Selcourt, who's coming into the race off a 7 1/2 month layoff.  She drew the rail and is going to have to gun from there if she wants to have any chance, and we think that'll set her up to get fried by the other speedballs.  

Picks: We're inclined to stick with the favorite and go hunting for some prices underneath.  In addition to our longshot du jour, we have some interest in Highway Star, who likes the distance and is getting a nice jockey upgrade, and Skye Diamonds, solely from a pace perspective.  But we think the day gets started off with some chalk.

1.  Marley's Freedom
2.  Miss Sunset
3.  Highway Star

Turf Sprint

Synopsis: 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf for all comers.  Try to get us excited about this race.  You've already failed.  This half hour will almost certainly be used by us to pick up lunch.

Favorite: Stormy Liberal won this race last year at 30-1 and will be a lot shorter price this year, as he's won 3 straight coming into this race.  He looks legitimate, but we're concerned that the expected soft turf won't be to his liking.  

Interesting Longshot: We originally were going to have Will Call as one of our picks because he likes the track and the distance, but he seems to want harder turf.  Hmm.  If you want a really fun horse to root for, Lost Treasure is a 3 year old running for the 5th time in 5 weeks and 8th time since late August.  That's not a misprint.

Betting Strategy: Spread.  We'll say it for the umpteenth time: in this race, it's always spread.

Picks: Without a ton of confidence, we'll focus on Stormy Liberal, as well as Chanteline, who's got a good record at the distance, improving 3 year old World of Trouble, and the ageless Rainbow Heir.  We'll use Disco Partner and Hembree defensively only: both want a little longer but are probably the most talented horses in the field.  Really, don't go too nuts on this silly race.

1.  Chanteline
2.  World of Trouble
3.  Stormy Liberal

Dirt Mile

Synopsis: 1 mile on the dirt for anyone interested.  We generally crap on this race, but like it a little better when it's at Churchill Downs because it's a one-turn mile, rather than a two-turn race.  That makes it a lot more interesting for both stretch-outs and turnbackers, and this year we actually have a mildly interesting field.

Favorite: A lot of people consider the undefeated Catalina Cruiser to be the lock of the weekend.  We're definitely not in that camp.  He's got a shot, sure, but he's only run 4 times in his career (which only started as a 4-year old, proving he's not a picture of soundness), he's never left California or faced this caliber of horses, and his trainer is 0-for-41 in Breeders Cup races.  That's not someone we want to bet at even money.

Interesting Longshot: We have two: Seven Trumpets and Triple Crown veteran Bravazo.  The former has run pretty well in one-turn races and stretches out from a good 3rd in the Gallant Bob, where he was running on a dead rail.  Bravazo is turning back from routes and that's an angle we like a lot in 1-turn miles.  Both should be around 15-1 and aren't impossible.

Betting Strategy: Narrow.  We endorse using Catalina Cruiser defensively, and like our longshots more underneath than up top.  We do give Firenze Fire a shot to win as we think he'll like a 1-turn mile, but ultimately think he'll lose to...

Picks: City of Light is someone we've been excited to bet for a while and will be a fulcrum of our Saturday wagering.  He's had a really good year, starting with 2 wins in California (a December 26 race is considered "this year" by us) around 1 turn.  He then tried a distance at Oaklawn, where he beat Accelerate and looked great.  He flopped at 10 furlongs, so he shipped to Saratoga for the 7 furlong Forego, where he had a bad trip and finished a good 2nd to Whitmore, who loves the distance and the track and got a better trip.  Trainer Mike McCarthy (who's pretty good) has been pointing him for this race all year and he's working out well to get here.  So yes, our best bet is in this race.  It's just not with the horse other people are picking.

1.  City of Light
2.  Firenze Fire
3.  Seven Trumpets

Filly and Mare Turf

Synopsis: 1 3/8 miles on the turf for the ladies.  They have run this race 19 times, and 4 trainers - Chad Brown, Bobby Frankel, Sir Michael Stoute and Ed Dunlop - have accounted for 10 of the wins.  Since Frankel is no longer with us and Stoute and Dunlop are sitting this year out, it should be a piece of cake to handicap this race right?  Wrong.

Favorite: The aforementioned Chad Brown has five horses entered in this race, including the favorite Sistercharlie.  She's 3-for-4 this year with her only loss being by a head in the New York Handicap, where she lost the race by jockey error, not lack of talent.  She's legitimately really good.  The only issue with her is that she missed her prep race in October because she missed training time with a bruised foot, but supposedly, she's fine now.

Interesting Longshot: We don't love that she's in the 13 post, but Dermot Weld's Eziyra is interesting to us.  She has repeated success at 12 furlongs (1 furlong longer than this race) and was a solid 3rd to Sea of Class two races back.  If Sea of Class was in this race, she'd be an even money favorite.

Betting Strategy: Spread.  We don't think you need to consider all 5 of Chad Brown's horses: Thais appears to be in here for pace purposes only, Santa Monica is clearly his 3rd stringer, and A Raving Beauty is a miler that doesn't look like she'll appreciate the distance.  That said, don't ignore Fourstar Crook, who's pretty good in her own right.

Picks: We originally had Aiden O'Brien's Magic Wand as our pick, but the fact it's going to be soft turf on Saturday made us reconsider, as she seems to prefer firm.  We'll only use her defensively, as well as Wild Illusion, who's very competitive and will like a softer going, but we think wants it a little shorter.  To hell with it, we'll go with our longshot on top.

1.  Eziyra
2.  Wild Illusion
3.  Sistercharlie

Sprint

Synopsis: 6 furlongs on the dirt for the fast and furious.  In good news, they've bumped the purse back to $2 million.  Now if they would only decrease the purse in the Dirt Mile and Filly Sprint to try to actually get the best sprinters in the same race, we'd be on to something.  Because a field of 9 does not get our juices flowing.  

Favorite: It'll either by defending champion Roy H or Imperial Hint, who ran second in this race last year.  Both look solid but vulnerable: Roy H hasn't quite run back to last year's form but hasn't been horrible, while Imperial Hint has only lost once this year, but it was at Churchill Downs (albeit on the slop).  

Interesting Longshot: Blech.  While we're not in love with the favorites, none of the horses that figure to be over 10-1 do much for us either.  I guess we'll side with B Squared, who is turning back to six furlongs and has some interesting 6 furlong races in his past.

Betting Strategy: Spread.  A big question in this race is how much you think "horse for the course" matters, as Imperial Hint has run badly twice at Churchill Downs, while Limousine Liberal has 6 wins in 8 starts at Churchill.  We're not in love with the latter as we think he's really a 7 furlong horse, and if history has taught us anything in this race, it's to focus on horses that are 6-furlong specialists.

Picks: Another truism in this race is to favor horses with early speed rather than dead closers.  While you would think that all the front runners would perpetually set things up for a closer, in the last 20 years, only 3 horses have won this race when more than 4 lengths off the pace after a quarter mile (two of which were Midnight Lute's back to back wins).  So while we'll use good closer Whitmore underneath, we won't put him on top.  Of the speed horses, we like 3 year old Promises Fulfilled the most, as we think he still has upside and can keep going on the lead for 6 furlongs even if other horses bother him.  He's our pick for a minor upset.

1.  Promises Fulfilled
2.  Imperial Hint
3.  Whitmore

Mile

Synopsis: 1 mile on the turf for anyone interested.  This remains our favorite Breeders Cup race, and this year, it's the starting point of the late pick four, which is also our favorite bet of the year.  So it's kinda important to get this right for parimutuel purposes.

Favorite: While American horses have recently been the way to go in this race - 6 of the last 7 winners were American, we think favoritism lands on European Expert Eye.  (It would have been Polydream, but she was a controversial vet's scratch Friday morning.)  There are some things to like here, as Sir Michael Stoute is a great trainer and he's well-bred.  What troubles us more is that he's never won at a flat mile.  There has literally never been a horse win this race without a win at a mile on the turf.

Interesting Longshot: It's rare that a horse with the highest last-out speed figure is a longshot, but Next Shares is going to be at least 12-1 (and possibly much longer) despite posting the highest Gowanus Speed Figure last out.  After having a fairly undistinguished career, something woke up 2 races ago where he won at Kentucky Downs, followed by winning the Shadwell at Keeneland at 23-1.  He does have success at a mile and is in good form, so maybe?

Betting Strategy: Spread.   This is as wide-open as we've seen the race in a while: we don't love the favorite, and we don't think the longshots are out of it.  We're playing the Pick Four and seriously contemplating using 8 horses.

Picks: Historically, two of the key angles in this race have been picking horses with multiple wins at a turf mile and those exiting a sharp prep race.  This actually narrows down the field quite a bit, and knocks out some shorter priced horses like Expert Eye (winless at the distance), Gustav Klimt (ditto), Happily (no wins this year), and Analyze It (bad 4th in last).  We may use them defensively, but we're more focused on Oscar Performance, who's undefeated at a mile (including winning the Juvenile Turf 2 years ago), Mustashry, who loves a mile and is in good form (albeit against lesser company), and I Can Fly, who almost beat Roaring Lion in her last (he would probably be the favorite here).  Gun to our head, we'll take Aiden O'Brien's horse, even though somehow, he's never won this race.

1.  I Can Fly
2.  Mustashry
3.  Oscar Performance

Distaff

Synopsis: 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for the women.  And finally, the Distaff is back to Saturday!  That only took a decade.  

Favorite: Monomoy Girl has made 10 starts and has never been out of the exacta.  In fact, she's only lost twice: by a neck in her last race last year, and in the Cotillion her prep race for the Distaff, where she was disqualified after drifting and blocking Midnight Bisou.  She's a lot of fun and looks tough here at a short price.

Interesting Longshot: La Force has only won twice in 22 starts, but we have interest in her as a bomb to hit the board.  She's a dead closer who's clunked up for 3rd in her last three races and should have a decent pace to run at.  We're also of the opinion that closers are usually at a disadvantage in California - where La Force ran every one of her US races - whereas in Kentucky, they get a much fairer shake.

Betting Strategy: Narrow.  Of the horses under 10-1 on the morning line, we have no interest in Wow Cat or Blue Prize, who we think are pure second-tier horses, and are generally against Abel Tasman, who ran horribly in her last.

Picks: We've narrowed this down to three horses: Monomoy Girl, La Force, and Midnight Bisou, who was Monomoy Girl's nemesis this year and only beat her by DQ in the Cotillion.  While we'd use all three in our Pick-Somethings, we're going to stick with the favorite here and our goofy longshot to finish the exacta.

1.  Monomoy Girl
2.  La Force
3.  Midnight Bisou

Turf

Synopsis: 1 1/2 miles on the turf for anyone long-winded enough to try.  Since Buck's Boy wired the field in 1998, we've had 20 winners of the Turf (there was a dead heat in '03), with 16 of the winners being imports from Europe, and one of the other 4 being a European who campaigned in the US (Main Sequence).  What's also remarkable is that favorites have been a horrible bet in this race: the last favorite to win was Conduit repeating in 2009.  Time and time again, the "other" European has been the successful bet - think of Red Rocks, Shirocco, Dangerous Midge, Magician, and of course, last year's winner Talismanic (who's back this year).

Favorite: Possibly the biggest favorite of the weekend is going to be Enable, who won the Arc de Triomphe in Paris this year and last year.  As we've said before and you'll see a billion times, no Arc winner has ever won the Breeders Cup Turf and many have tried.   Plenty of people think this is the year that "curse" ends, in part because it's only Enable's 3rd start of the year, so she's presumably not over the top.  We're certainly not going to advocate tossing her, but we do note that even money is a short price to take on a horse that's trying to do something other excellent horses have tried to do and failed.

Interesting Longshot: Despite all the above admonitions against betting American horses, we have a little interest in Robert Bruce, who won the Arlington Million earlier this year and goes out for super-trainer Chad Brown.  He ran a blah second in the Hirsch last out, but that was over a bog-like turf in a paceless race.  If it was simply the result of not liking the surface (and we note he lost his other start at Belmont earlier in the year) and not having someone to run at, he's kinda sorta interesting at around 15-1.

Betting Strategy: Narrow.  While we respect her, we are not going to single Enable.  We heard the exact same plaudits about Golden Horn 3 years ago (who was also trained by John Gosden) who came over after a great year and a good win in the Arc.  He ran a solid second to Aiden O'Brien's three-year-old filly Found, who Golden Horn had beaten in the Arc four weeks earlier, and who had a productive start in between in the Champions Stakes.  This year, O'Brien has entered the three-year-old filly Magical, who lost in the Arc and just won the Champions Stakes.  Hmmm....

Picks: The other Arc "also ran" that looks imposing is Waldgeist, who ran a solid 4th when he had some traffic trouble.  That broke his 4-race win streak, but we liked that he had tactical speed and was barely beaten by Enable, who actually almost loss the race late to Sea of Class.  In any other year, Waldgeist would be a solid favorite.  Here?  He's going to get slightly overlooked and we think will be excellent value at around 5-1.  We like him to turn the tables in a mild upset.

1.  Waldgeist
2.  Enable
3.  Robert Bruce

Classic

Synopsis: 1 1/4 miles on the dirt for three year olds and up.  Once again, we're not blowing this race out this year because of time constraints.  What is nice is that there's no dominating favorite this year, making it a nice puzzle and betting race to close out the Breeders Cup.

Favorite: In a year where we didn't have a Triple Crown winner, Accelerate would be way ahead of the field for Horse of the Year: he's only lost once this year, he swept the California Grade 1's for older horses, and has won just shy of $2 million.  He's been handled perfectly by John Sadler: he was an after-thought in the Dirt Mile two years ago, and has stretched out and blossomed as a 5 year old, and is a worthy favorite.  And with all that being said...we're going to try to beat him because we think he's over the top, has been beating up on lesser horses all year, and doesn't like to leave California.  He reminds us of Lava Man, who had a great year in California in 2006.  When he went to Kentucky for the Breeders Cup, he was nowhere to be found.

Interesting Longshot: We're probably going to look like idiots once again but...we're interested in Mendelssohn at a price.  Yes, the same Mendelssohn we picked to win the Derby and picked DAFL.  Since then he's had a bad Dwyer Stakes, followed by a good second in the Travers and a sneaky-good third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where he got into a suicidal pace duel with the talented Diversify but still only lost by 2 lengths.  He has the controlling early speed.  The question is whether he'll get fried again or if he can wire the field.  A tall order, but if he's 12-1 or higher, we'll take a stab that he can do it.

Betting Strategy: Relatively narrow.  We're not in love with Catholic Boy, who we acknowledge beat Mendelssohn in the Travers, but had a perfect trip and we think just isn't fast enough.  Roaring Lion is making his dirt debut here and has the look of a trainer taking a free roll; we'll pass.  Thunder Snow looked a little interesting until he drew the rail; he probably has to get sent to the lead from there and we think that's not going to be his best style.  Yoshida's not impossible as he might get a perfect trip, but the field he beat in the Woodward was atrocious.  And we're just not seeing Mind Your Biscuits at 10 furlongs.  He should be in the Sprint or Dirt Mile.

Picks: One reason we weren't in love with Justify was that we were convinced that the best 3 year old in Bob Baffert's barn was McKinzie, who was a Grade 1 in his second race (albeit by DQ), then won the Sham with ease, and crossed the finish line first in the San Felipe against Bolt d'Oro, only to be DQ'd on a bump.  He came out of that race injured so he missed the Triple Crown, and got to watch Justify make history.  But Baffert kept brought him back in the Pennsylvania Derby, where he won with ease.  Yes, he's never taken on older horses before, but we don't think this is a stellar field, and think his biggest competition is stablemate West Coast, who also is making his second start off the layoff.  We think they duel down the stretch, and McKinzie edges out West Coast giving Baffert his 4th Classic win in 5 years.

1.  McKinzie

2.  West Coast

3.  Mendelssohn

Good luck and enjoy the races!!!