Breeders Cup Preview Part III: Friday’s Races

And now starts our rundown of the races on Friday and Saturday. We're going to do a brief breakdown of all the races, where we give a brief synopsis of the race and the storyline, examine the favorite(s), point out a longshot or two we think is interesting, occasionally discuss why we're against certain horses, and give our picks. Let's get to it!

Marathon

Race synopsis: Grade III, 1 3/4 miles on dirt, 3yo and up, $500k purse. This is the race nobody really likes because it's a motley crew of horses that nobody would describe at "championship" caliber. We're just sad that the pre-entered Temple City didn't actually make it to the final entries, because his last race comment line of "done early, not abused" is just priceless.

Favorite: The favorite is a horse that sports a 18.4% winning percentage and last won a race on a dirt fast track in January 2007. As you can guess, we're not big fans of Awesome Gem. Or this race in general.

Price Horse to Consider: Precision Break has a win at the distance, albeit on synthetic. But it's something that shows he can get the distance. Hell, he's cutting back in distance for this race: his last start was in the Ceasarwitch Handicap at 2 1/4 miles. That race took a cool 3 minutes, 59 seconds to complete--about half the length of your average Kevin Youkilis at bat.

Picks: We have no idea. A.U. Miner ran well in the Hawthorne Gold Cup last out, so why the hell not?

1. A.U. Miner 2. Precision Break 3. Atoned

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Race synopsis: Grade II, 1 mile on turf, 2yo fillies only, $1 million purse. This race was thought to be headed for the chopping block; we're surprised it's still here.

Favorites: The two horses everyone will be focusing on are Winter Memories and Together. The former is a Jimmy Toner girl that sharply won the Miss Grillo stakes at Belmont, beating a bunch of other Yanks here. Together ships in for Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien off some good efforts in grades stakes in England and Ireland.

Price Horses to Consider: Shockingly, there's a bunch here, making this one of the more interesting races on the weekend. Allure d'Amour is gorgeously bred and looked good breaking her maiden for Todd Pletcher. At 15-1, she's worth considering though the outside post doesn't help. Flood Plain has only run twice but ships in for the always dangerous John Gosden and is perfectly bred for a turf mile. Wyomia won both of her non-turf races, but is a half to turf G1 winner Red Giant and is out of the late good sire Vindication. Also well-bred is Quiet Oasis, who will probably be running late.

Picks: This has the look of a "spread" race in your Pick 3's and 4's, because there's plenty to like. Winter Memories is a legit favorite but we can't endorse taking an American turf girl at 2-1 off of one good race. Given what looks like a lot of speed in the race, we'll go with closer Quiet Oasis for a price.

1. Quiet Oasis 2. Wyomia 3. Winter Memories

Filly & Mare Sprint

Race synopsis: Grade I, 7 furlongs on the dirt for fillies only, $1 million purse. In its 3 year history, closers have won each time. Of course, they have never run this race on fast dirt, so that means nothing.

Favorites: Rightly So exits a win in the Ballerina on Travers Day and is the favorite off the 2-month layoff. Mind you, she's never run outside of New York and won the Ballerina on a pretty rail-biased track, so it's not like she doesn't have any holes. Informed Decision is the defending champ who's had a pretty blah year and is fairly ordinary on the dirt.

Price Horses to Consider: If Switch is anywhere near her 20-1 morning line odds, she's one of the best value plays on the day. Beaten just a half length by Zenyatta in her last race, she cuts back to a sprint distance which makes her a mid-pack/closer type. That's fine with us, there's a ton of speed in the race. If you buy that she needed her last race off a 10-month layoff, Sara Louise is dangerous in her second start of the year.

Picks: We've been high on Switch for a while and will jump at the chance to take her here. The other 3 year old we like is Champagne d'Oro, who's been very consistent in 1-turn races this year and had a sneaky good prep on polytrack last out.

1. Switch 2. Champagne d'Oro 3. Sara Louise

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Race synopsis: Grade I, 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, 2yo fillies only, $2 million purse. The first of the "traditional" Breeders Cup races to be run.

Favorites: It's either going to be A Z Warrior, who impressively won the Frizette, or Tell a Kelly, the beaten favorite in the Oak Leaf. Both look like solid fillies, though Tell a Kelly has yet to run on the dirt.

Price Horses to Consider: Delightful Mary cost $500,000 despite modest breeding (Limehouse out of an unknown French Deputy mare). She must at least look like a champion, right?

Picks: Historically, this race either produces a chalky result or a complete bomb. The favorites look legit to us.

1. Delightful Mary 2. A Z Warrior 3. Tell a Kelly

Filly & Mare Turf

Race synopsis: Grade I, 1 3/8 miles on the turf, 3yo+ fillies and mares, $2 million purse. This is one of our favorite races every year, as it's usually competitive and produces rational results: both longshot winners (Lahudood in '07, Starine in '02) were overlays that were not hard to come up with.

Favorite: Midday, who we gushed about last week.

Price Horses to Consider: Miss Keller has had a strong, consistent year running in New York and Canada. At 8-1, she's very live to hit the board. Keertana loves the distance and comes in off a goofy Flower Bowl where nobody really ran well because the ground was a complete bog. At 30-1, there are worse ideas.

Picks: Much as we love to be contrarians, there's only one horse we can see beating Midday: the Japanese alleged superstar Red Desire. But we don't think it's happening--if she couldn't beat the likes of Changing Skies five weeks ago, why can she beat Midday now?

1. Midday 2. Miss Keller 3. Keertana

Ladies's Classic (nee Distaff)

Race synopsis: Grade I, 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, 3yo+ fillies and mares, $2 million purse. We're missing the Queen (Zenyatta), the defending horse of the year (the now retired Rachel Alexandra), and the other hot filly of the weekend (Goldikova). Still, this is a fun and competitive race.

Favorites: Blind Luck, who we profiled last week and don't need to regurgitate her merits. The second choice is either fellow 3 year old Havre de Grace (more on her in a second) or Life at Ten, who's been the best older mare in the country this year.

Price Horses to Consider: There is only one committed front-runner in this race: Pletcher's second stringer Malibu Prayer. She won the Grade I Ruffian earlier this year, but until now, hasn't faced the best horses in the country. Acoma upset the Spinster at 24-1 last out, and the Spinster used to be a big prep race for the Distaff before Keeneland went to a synthetic surface. Don't dismiss her out of hand for trifectas and superfectas.

Horses we don't like: Unrivaled Belle can't beat Life at Ten. Persistently did upset Rachel Alexandra but under conditions (insanely fast fractions and a tired horse) she won't get here. Havre de Grace will take a ton of money, but has improved her Gowanus Speed Figures in six consecutive races. Noted plagiarist Andrew Beyer once did a study that showed that horses that did that ran a worse speed figure next out over 95% of the time, so we're against.

Picks: Ignoring her loss after an insane speed duel with Rachel Alexandra, Life at Ten has been a model of consistency this year. She's won from on the pace, just off the pace, and runs fast. She's the best horse here and is our pick to win. That said, we can't see Blind Luck completely faltering, and like her to still hit the board along with the speed of the race, Malibu Prayer.

1. Life at Ten 2. Malibu Prayer 3. Blind Luck

Breeders Cup Preview Part II: Six Horses to Watch

The equine storylines for this Breeders Cup are pretty straightforward: Zenyatta going for 20-for-20, Goldikova's quest for a 3rd straight victory in the Mile, Lookin at Lucky, Blame and Quality Road all hoping to cap off good seasons and possible Horse of the Year honors in the Classic. But there are 13 other races on the cards besides the Breeders Cup Classic, and there are over 175 horses scheduled to run . Who are some of the other stars that people should know going into the Breeders Cup?

1. Uncle Mo (Juvenile). One of the strongest favorites on Saturday's card, he's a flashy two year old that dominated in his first start, winning by almost 15 lengths, and then stylishly taking the Champagne as his prep for the Breeders Cup. Despite making all of two starts, the bandwagon is already crowded, and if he wins next Saturday, it's going to be overflowing with everyone thinking they've already found the next Kentucky Derby winner. We have a little bit of extra interest in this guy because his owner (Mike Repole) is a Maspeth, Queens native and an enthusiastic guy willing to spend money. We're a little less convinced that this guy is the next Street Sense (let alone Secretariat), and think his stablemate Stay Thirsty has a shot in the Juvenile as well, but he'll be well-supported and has a big shot.

2. Workforce (Turf). The European import owned by the Prince of Saudi Arabia, he's made five starts and won three of them. That seems unimpressive on its face, except that two of his wins were the Epsom Derby--the "real Derby" according to the Brits--and Europe's biggest race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. He's now trying to become the first Arc winner to also win a Breeders Cup race: eight others have tried and failed, with the closest to wining, oddly, being Sakhee's nose lose to Tiznow in the 2001 Classic. But he's got one of the best chances to pull it off, as the American contingent is unexceptional, he's lightly raced and in good form, and his trainer won the last two Turfs with Conduit. His main competition is going to be Arc-also ran Bekahbad, who's owned by His Royal Highness the Aga Khan. So not only is this a rematch of the Arc, it's a contest between the Shiites and the Sunnis in the middle of Louisville, Kentucky.

3. Blind Luck (Ladies Classic, nee Distaff). With all the hoopla around Zenyatta and Goldikova, plus the retired Rachel Alexandra, it's hard to remember that there are other accomplished fillies out there. The best of them is Blind Luck, a 3 year old filly who's never been out of the money in 14 starts. She won a pair of Grade 1's last year but was the beaten favorite in the BC Juvenile Fillies and lost the Eclipse Award to She Be Wild, who has done nothing this year. She's made up for it in spades this year by winning 3 Grade 1's, including the Kentucky Oaks and Alabama, the signature races for the 3yo fillies. She's raced at 7 tracks in 6 states this year and her worst loss was a 1 1/2 length bid to a loose-on-the-lead Switch. She's now facing her toughest challenge yet in the Ladies Classic--even without Zenyatta, the race has drawn a competitive field with older mares Life at Ten, Malibu Prayer and Unrivaled Belle and some hard-knockers from the 3yo class, including Havre de Grace (who beat Blind Luck last out in Philadelphia) and Acting Happy. Look for her flying down Churchill's long stretch late in Friday's closing race.

4. Midday (F&M Turf). With all due respect to Zenyatta, Uncle Mo and Goldikova, this horse is the strongest favorite Breeders Cup weekend. She won last year's F&M Turf pretty handily, and enters this race off three straight Grade 1 wins in Europe against much stiffer competition than she'll face next Friday. She has tactical speed, should love the distance (multiple Grade 1 wins at 10 and 12 furlongs, so 11 shouldn't be a problem), and has had a fairly light campaign this year (4 races) meaning she shouldn't be over the top. Unless the alleged Japanese star Red Desire actually turns out to be good, she's the best bet of the weekend.

5. Proviso (Mile). We could write a small treatise on the cast of characters in this year's Mile, which in addition to Goldikova, includes a horse that won two Eclipse Awards last year (Gio Ponti), the third choice in this year's Kentucky Derby (Sidney's Candy), the fourth choice in the 2008 Kentucky Derby (Court Vision), a horse that took 7 starts to break his maiden and since then hasn't been out of the exacta on the turf (The Usual Q.T.) and an eclectic mix of hard-knocking Euros (the good Paco Boy, the okay Delegator, the bad Beethoven).

But it's Proviso that we think is the most interesting contender, because she (after Zenyatta) has the second most Grade 1 wins in America this year with 4. She began her career in Europe where she was perfectly ordinary, capturing a Grade 3 stakes and placing in a pair of Grade 1's. Since coming to the States last fall, however, she's on fire, with 5 Grade 1 wins in 7 starts, her two losses being a fast-closing second on synthetic at 7 furlongs (not her best surface or distance) and a lackadaisical 4th in last year's BC Distaff, also over a synthetic surface. Since going back to the turf this year, she's won 4 straight Grade 1's, including a win over the boys in the Frank Kilroe earlier this year. Not stout enough to go 11 furlongs, she's here to take on the boys instead of staying with her own gender the Filly & Mare Turf. And if she wins, she'll have beaten the boys twice and knocked off the dominant Goldikova and won five Grade 1 races. If Zenyatta loses the Classic, is that enough to consider Proviso for Horse of the Year?

6. Crown of Thorns (Dirt Mile). Can you be the favorite in a Breeders Cup race when you haven't won a race in 32 months and are only 2-for-8 lifetime? Apparently the answer is yes. This spectacularly named son of Repent was on the Derby trail two years ago when got hurt, putting him on the sidelines for a year and a half. He came back last fall to run 3rd in an allowance race, and since then, has 4 straight runner up finishes in Grade 1 races, including last year's Breeders Cup Sprint and the Goodwood earlier this month. Trainer Richard Mandella, one of the best ever, wanted to put him in the Classic but said he's a race short, so the one-turn Dirt Mile it is. The competition is interesting but not exactly stiff: outside of Vineyard Haven and Tizway, it's full of has-beens (including Derby winner Mine That Bird!) and third-tier horses (Cool Coal Man). A fun guy to watch not only on Saturday but also next year if he stays healthy and in training.