World Cup Tomorrow, Sunday, July 11: World Cup Finals Preview

Whew. After 62 games and umpty-bump words, we’ve reached the end of World Cup 2010. We’ll have one more post-mortem post on where US soccer (and US soccer fans) go from here, but for now, let’s get right into the matchup.

Spain v. Netherlands (2:30 PM ET)

It’s the Eighty Years’ War compressed down to ninety minutes, as the Dutch again try to throw off shackles of the reigning European power, Spain.

There’s no word on whether King Juan Carlos of Spain will attend to watch David Villa’s attempt to put down the Dutch rebellion, though long-deceased King Philip II (who once ruled both Spain and the Netherlands) will no doubt be looking down with great interest, assuming he can see around his enormous, ovoid, Hapsburgian skull and get a glimpse of the game.

History also looms over the match in another, uglier way, as we’re now faced with the specter of the Dutch winning a World Cup staged in their former colony of South Africa, which their Afrikaner descendants turned into one of the most avowedly racist societies on Earth. I know that the Dutch have a modern reputation as genial hash merchants, but their imprint in South Africa has left the country pretty badly bent to this day. A Dutch win in South Africa would be the equivalent of a Spain win in a World Cup hosted by the Inca.

On a less somber note, soccer history will also be served on Sunday, as one of these two teams will move off of the “Best Never to Win It All” list and join France and England as the only one-time winners of the Cup (and the only one-time winner whose lone triumph came away from home).

Holland twice lost finals to host teams in the ‘70s (Argentina and then-West Germany), and are clearly at the top of the lucky loser list. In fact, the concept of losing pretty has become so entwined with Dutch soccer that many writers seem to be rooting against this edition of the team, because it (a) is not pretty and (b) does not lose (with a 90-minute win, Holland would become only the second team in World Cup history to win every game in regulation).

Spain, by contrast, can’t boast the same history of close calls. Instead, prior to the pat few years Spain had a reputation of being the most talented team never to accomplish anything of note, primarily because they choked too early to even make a final. By way of analogy, Holland are the pre-‘04 Red Sox, whereas Spain were the mid-aughts Yankees.

As for the game itself, at this point, there’s not a lot more to say tactically (as you may have guessed from the rest of preview). Spain ended up heeding our advice and benching Fernando Torres in favor of Pedro, and we’d expect that lineup to remain unchanged for the final. The move essentially gives Spain 5 midfielders, which is appropriate, because Spain’s entire style of play is built around controlling the center of the field.

They’ll face a unique challenge in Holland’s defensive central midfield duo of Mark van Bommel (seen plying his trade at right) and Nigel de Jong, both of whom teeter on the line between scrappers and goons.

Our random prediction of the day is that at least one of the five combined central midfield players--van Bommel, de Jong, and Spain’s Xabi Alonso, Xavi, and Andres Iniesta--will end up leaving the game not of their own accord. For the Dutch players the risk is a red card; for the Spanish, a Theisman’ed tibia. Whichever team keeps all of its guys on the field will win.

Prediction: Spain 2-1 Netherlands (ET). That would be pretty high scoring for a final, but we think the scoring will be stretched out over 120 minutes instead of 90.

World Cup Tomorrow: Wednesday, July 7

Edit: Do you realize that we effing called this game in December? Dear Lord. That almost makes up for the Brazil-England whiff we had in the other semi.

We sort of can’t believe that there are only two games left in this World Cup (the 3rd place game doesn't count). We’re not sure that we’re going to do when we no longer have the daily opportunity to be wrong about soccer. Probably we’ll just go back to being wrong about our fantasy baseball teams (THREE middle infielders on the DL at the same time? FML.).

Germany v. Spain

A rematch of the 2008 European Championships, a game that Spain mostly controlled, but only won 1-0. That no doubt sounds familiar to anyone who has watched the Spanish in the WC, where they have had more than their share of games where they dominated the ball and the field, but not the scoreboard.

Spain continue to be held back by the fact that they only have one guy (David Villa) capable of scoring. Their other forward, Fernando Torres, has played either poorly or ineffectually, and their best goal scoring midfielder, Cesc Fabregas, is dinged up and has had trouble getting onto the field given Spain’s absolutely ridiculous depth in the midfield.

Spain’s reliance on Villa is a problem, because Germany have been very good at taking away the other team’s best player in this tournament. They forced Argentina’s Leo Messi to drop way too deep to get the ball, smothered England’s best forward, Wayne Rooney, and held Ghana’s Assamoah Gyan scoreless without resorting to goal line handballs.

Given that, we have to imagine that German manager Jogi Loew and the rest of the German coaching staff (who, for some reason, continually attend matches dressed like The Kingsmen), will try to take Villa out of the equation, and force Spain to find goals from somewhere else.

We also expect that Germany will pressure Spain’s deep central midfielders much as Paraguay did. Paraguay’s pressure did a good job of disrupting the Spanish attack, at least until the Paraguayans ran out of gas. That won’t be a problem for this young German team, which (appropriately enough) appears to run on diesel.

We think the Spanish have two options here. One, they could run out their usual lineup, on the theory that their usual central-midfield-focused, ball-possession offense will stifle Germany’s counter-attacking game by denying them the ball entirely. In other words, Spain could run the equivalent of a Princeton offense to slow down the fastbreaking Germans. Given Spain’s success against Germany in ’08, we bet they’ll end up taking this tactic.

We, however, think they should consider going one step further, and tweak their lineup, benching the ineffective Torres in favor of Barcelona winger Pedro. Pedro should both give Spain the width that is has lacked, and put a little more speed on the field, both of which should help to corral the German counter-attacks down the flanks. The downside is that this move might require some sort of formation change, because Spain would be replacing a forward with a wide man. But Pedro was on the field for the deciding goal against Paraguay, so clearly they have some idea how to play with him on the field.

One more little non-tactical note before we get to the prediction. Germany have been the most impressive team in this tournament, routinely getting early leads and then running off to big wins. But because of that, we don’t really know whether or not they have a chin. They didn’t look good playing from behind against Serbia, but then, they were also a man down in that game. If Spain can get an early goal, it would be very interesting to see how Germany responded. (Of course, early goals are exactly what Spain has been unable to get in this tournament.) Similarly, we don’t even know if Germany tighten up late in a tie game, because nobody has managed to stay even with them for more than an hour. Spain, on the other hand, has sure seen a lot of those.

Prediction: Spain 1-0 Germany. A virtual replay of the Euro finals. The one caveat is that this German team has amply demonstrated that it knows how to play with a lead. If Spain give up an early one, this could turn into a goalfest.

World Cup Tomorrow (Well, Today, Really): Tuesday, July 6

Boy, we did not see that coming. All of a sudden, Europe has taken over the World Cup, making El Angelo’s college football analogy all the more apt. It now looks as though the equivalent of an Ohio State-Michigan game will decide the title on the last day of the season.

The sole potential fly in the ointment, Uruguay, plays on Tuesday. Is there any hope for the good citizens of Montevideo (and any USA fans who are following our advice)?

Netherlands v. Uruguay

Well, not really, no. The problem doesn’t lie with the Uruguay team’s performances to date—although they haven’t claimed any big scalps, they’ve looked the better team in all the games they’ve played, which is something you can’t really say about a couple of the other semifinalists. No, the problem is that the Uruguay team who achieved those results isn’t the one who will take the field against Holland. No Luis Suarez, the team’s best goal scoring threat (and about whom, more later*). No Nicolas Lodeiro, one of the team’s few natural creative midfielders. Possibly no Diego Lugano, the team’s captain and best defender. The cupboard is just looking pretty bare. We can’t even really do a tactical analysis, because we have no idea how the team will line up in the absence of those players. They’ll play hard, no doubt, but will need to find some skill somewhere to keep up with Holland.

* We have seen a lot of criticism of Suarez, particularly from English media. Not to put too fine a point on it, but those critics are totally fucking wrong. Suarez’s intentional handball was just about the most heads-up play we’ve seen in years—in that situation, you trade the PK and red card for the sure goal 100% of the time. And it’s not as though he tried to hide it, or protest the card, Thierry Henry-style. He just gambled and won, and it was awesome. If you don’t like to see people trying to win, go to the ballet instead.

Holland was pretty much run off the field by Brazil in the first half of their quarterfinal game. But then Holland caught a break when Brazil keeper Julio Cesar because the 5,000th keeper in this tournament to misjudge a ball, and the Dutch then capitalized on Brazil’s subsequent meltdown.

They are still an odd team, one that lines up with what appear to be traditional Dutch wide wingmen, but then play everything up the middle. But they’ve been ruthlessly effective, which is something that could not be said about any other Dutch tournament team in history. The Brazil game showed that they can also take a punch, which is a trait that the other semifinalists mostly haven’t shown (or haven’t had the opportunity to show). Honestly, if this wasn’t the Dutch we were dealing with, we’d predict them to advance in a walk. But the robust history of Dutch gagging gives us at least a little pause.

Prediction: Netherlands 1-0 Uruguay. The Uruguayans claw and scratch for about an hour, but eventually succumb to a superior team.

World Cup Tomorrow: Saturday, July 3

Back on the scene! We had to punt on today’s games, sadly, though that probably worked out OK for us, because we did not see that Dutch win coming. But we can at least opine on the remaining two quarterfinal games, one of which threatens to be an instant classic, and the other of which involves Paraguay.

Argentina v. Germany (10 AM ET)

Get up early on Saturday to watch the two highest-scoring teams in the tournament face off. Argentina have skipped lightly through the tournament to this point despite still not getting any goals from Leo Messi. But despite all the good karma and happy Diego Maradona reaction shots on the sidelines, the team has looked a little creaky at the back. Argentina are essentially running out a three-man defense of Gabriel Heinze, Walter Samuel (when healthy) and Martin Demichaelis. Heinze has impressed, but the other two have had moments of panic induction, especially when paired up against faster attackers. This is pretty much to be expected, because all three of those guys fundamentally are central defenders, used to being part of a central pairing in a 4-man defense, where their job is to defend against aerial attacks from big guys, not speedy runs.

We’re not criticizing the tactical call by Maradona—the 3-man defense is the only way to accommodate all his attacking options. It also effectively closes off the middle, which has helped Argentina avoid giving up the sort of Route 1, punt-down-the-middle-initiated goals that we’ve seen the USA, England, Holland, and others surrender in the WC. But the formation does leave them a little vulnerable to speed up the sidelines, where fast wingers can get isolated on slower Argentine defenders, and look to take them off the dribble. Argentina haven’t really been burned on this yet, mainly because their own wingers have pinned the other team’s possible attackers back in their own end.

That might change against Germany, who showed off their deadly speed on the counter-attack against Scotla…err, England in the round of 16. Germany really do have the pace to trouble Argentina on the outside, though we’d imagine that otherwise talismanic striker Miloslav Klose might have a tough day unless the outside guys pull Argentina so wide that he gets room to operate in the middle. Of course, the Germans have had their own periodic foibles at the back, giving up two (well, one on the scoresheet, but two in reality) goals in the brief 15 minute window when England managed to set up shop in the Germany half.

Expect Argentina to have more of the ball in this game, and to find the back of the net at least once. The game will turn on whether that goal comes early (allowing them to either sit back or bring in functional 4th defender Jonas Gutierrez off the bench) or late, after they’ve pushed forward far enough to give Germany chances on the counter.

Prediction: Honestly, we don’t know. We’ll say Argentina 2-1 Germany for the record.

Spain v. Paraguay (2:30 PM ET)

And then there’s this. Paraguay got here by strangling the Japanese like a dolphin in a drift net. They have scored 3 goals in 4 games, and put up a goose egg against New Zealand. They are dull, and will do everything shy of crowbarring the Spanish in an effort to contain them.

Spain should be somewhat used to those tactics after their recent win over Forca Portugal. Spain have had a tough time finding their way through 10-man defenses in this tournament (the Portugal game went down to the wire, and the Swiss of course managed to defend their way to a win), mainly because David Villa is the only man who can seem to score for the Spanish. But, shit, Paraguay couldn’t score against New Zealand, and Iker Casillas would give Spain the edge if this one went to PKs.

Prediction: Spain 2-0 Paraguay

World Cup Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 29th

Teddy is traveling for work today leavng us without our resident soccer guru to continue his excellent WC previews. But fear not football aficionados, I, your resident racing and fantasy baseball guru, am here to pick up the slack. Just because I have about 12% of the soccer knowledge of my co-author doesn't mean I can't contribute. So let's try it out.

Paraguay-Japan

Teddy would go into the talents of Beckhamura, Paraguay's 4-3-3 formation, blah blah blah. I want to take another approach. There are six federations in soccer--roughly one for each continent. They all have parallels with college football conferences. To wit:

South America--The SEC; dominant with multiple teams that can make a run and impressive depth.

Europe--The Big Ten; still powerful and has 1-2 tough teams atop, but the depth is overrated based on history.

North America/CONCAAF--The Big East; has 1-2 teams every year that can give you a scare, but are rarely if ever in the hunt for anything serious.

Africa--The ACC; similar to the Big East but the top appears to be a lot stronger.

Asia--The WAC; produces a feisty team or two that you wouldn't want to play but is ultimately harmless.

Oceania--The MAC.

One of my favorite (and most successful) ways to pick bowl games each December is to gauge the relative strength of the two conferences that are facing off. If you have a middle-of-the-pack team from a deep conference (say, a Tennessee) versus a "higher" ranked team from a crappier conference (say, a Rutgers), you're much better off taking the team from the tougher conference with the worse ordinal finish.

And that's what we appear to have here--the clear #2 in Asia versus the #4/5 from South America. This is akin to a Meineke Car Care Bowl where Georgia takes on Nevada, mere days after the #3 team clobbered the conference champ (here, Uruguay over South Korea). Who would you like in that game? Thought so.

Prediction: Paraguay 2 - 0 Japan

Spain-Portugal

If this were the 16th century, we'd be salivating over this matchup. I'm not. Here's how each team comes into the game:

• Spain--unlucky as hell to not get a goal off Switzerland; dominates Honduras; dominates Chile. While everyone calls them choke artists, they have still been near unbeatable in the last 3 years.

• Portugal--didn't give up a goal in the first round, but that's in large part because they played an Ivory Coast team minus their star at 100%, a Brazil team that didn't try, and North Korea, who at last check, was North Korea. They also scored zero goals against the two real teams they played and are only here because they ran up the score on North Korea better than Ivory Coast.

So Spain in a rout, right? Well...I'm not so sure. I don't think Portugal can score off Spain unless it's on a set play, which are tough to predict. But I also see Portugal trying to play airtight defense, knowing their best ways to win are off counterattacks or penalty kicks after 120 minutes. I like a low scoring boring game, with Portugal missing a couple of good chances late and Cristiano Ronaldo whining for 25 minutes uninterrupted in the second half.

Prediction: Spain 1 - 0 Portugal

World Cup Tomorrow: Monday, June 28

Two quick notes before we get to Monday’s games. First, we’re traveling this week, so posting will be sporadic. The trip more or less lines up with the off days before the quarters, but there are going to be gaps. Second, we’re 3-for-4 with two exact scorelines predicted so far this round, so holler.

Netherlands v. Slovakia (10 AM ET)

We haven’t written much about the Netherlands so far, mainly because there hasn’t been a great deal to say. They cruised an easy group, and now have drawn a second-tier European team in a tournament in which second-tier European teams have been terrible. As with Germany, we won’t really know anything about these guys until next round, when they hit South American opposition.

And make no mistake, they will hit South American opposition, because Slovakia is not going to stop them. The Slovaks have more than held up their end of the bargain by getting here after cleaning up after the Italian elephant show. At some point, though, you need more talent than they have on offer.

Prediction: Netherlands 2-0 Slovakia

Brazil v. Chile (2:30 PM ET)

Brazil allowed Europe one of its only really impressive group stage result against South America when it only managed a draw against Portugal. Don’t be fooled: Brazil was missing Kaka because of an earlier cheap red card, and pulled a couple of guys with yellows midway through the match. The real Brazilian team will be in place to take on Chile.

The Chileans came in second in the long, fair South American qualifying tournament, scoring 32 goals to Brazil’s 33 in that time. They’ve also have made a lot of friends in South Africa after a group stage in which they were unafraid to attack, going so far as to keep attacking Spain even after eating a red card. Problem is, all that attacking leaves them vulnerable to counters by Brazil (especially down the flanks; watch out for Maicon again tomorrow), as was evident in Chile’s 0-3 and 4-2 losses to Brazil during qualifying. A fun game to watch, though, and a pity that we have to waste one of these teams at this early stage.

Prediction: Brazil 3-1 Chile

World Cup Special: Now The F$#K What for USA Fans?

Following the USA’s loss to Ghana (and seriously, why the hell was Maurice Edu in the starting XI as we ordered?), an astute reader wrote in to ask who US fans should adopt as their new team for the remainder of the World Cup. We figured we’d take a crack at coming up with an answer using our usual pseudo-scientific approach.

As you know (and as Sherlock Holmes never tired of reminding us), once you’ve eliminated all of the impossible answers, whatever’s left, no matter how improbable, must be correct. So let’s eliminate teams using a few simple rules, and see what’s left.

Rule #1: Not a European Team

Dirty secret: these teams aren’t that good. No European team has ever won a World Cup staged outside of Europe, where European teams are exposed to the same sort of travel stresses overcome by the myriad non-continental players playing in European leagues every week.

A thought experiment. We’re 50 years in the future, and the economies of Europe and South America have stayed on their current trajectories the whole time, with the result that the richest soccer league in the world is no longer in England or Spain, but in Brazil. How many Englishmen do you think are playing in that league? Exactly.

Despite this, Euro fans and commentators are still “gobsmacked” every time they come up short in a non-Euro World Cup. Further humiliations are necessary to punish their hubris. Thankfully, the Euro teams have pretty much already been humiliating themselves.

Teams eliminated by this rule: England, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Holland, Slovakia

Rule #2 Not a Team with No Shot of Winning

Because who wants to go through this process again in two days?

Teams eliminated by this rule: Mexico, Paraguay, Chile, Japan, Ghana

Rule #3: Not Brazil

What? We know, it’s tough not to root for them, what with the ridiculous goals and the essentially naked dancing ladies and so forth. But Brazil are hosting the 2014 World Cup, and thus are as close to a lock to win as you’re ever going to get. New blood, please.

Teams eliminated by this rule: Brazil

Just those three simple rules narrow the field to two candidates.

Possibility number one is somewhat expected: Argentina. They play fun, open soccer, are coached by a madman in Diego Maradona, and have the best player in the world in Leo Messi. They have a proud history in the tournament, so a win would mean a lot to the country, but they haven’t actually won since 1986, so they’re also a change of pace. They even have extremely sharp and flag-appropriate unis (Brazil’s shorts have always bothered us; the dominant colors in that flag are yellow and green, not yellow and blue. Who picked blue shorts instead of green? Dumb.)

They have a tough draw, which admittedly hurts their chances of getting to the final, but also means that every single match they play from here on out should be a good one to watch. They even start Jonas Gutierrez, who plays for our adopted English club team, Newcastle United, which is sort of amazing, because Newcastle were in the English soccer equivalent of AAA last season. Anyway, here’s your mainstream candidate.

Feel more like a dark horse? Then allow us to suggest Uruguay. They aren’t as explosive as Argentina, but are better organized at the back, and just look more like a team than a collection of talented individuals than just about anyone else at the World Cup. The also have a proud history, having won the whole shooting match twice back in the early years (1930 and 1950), with the second coming in Brazil.

But mostly, they’re a great story. They only got into the tournament by beating Costa Rica in a playoff, and even there they needed a disputed offside call. But they’ve just looked great in South Africa, with Luis Suarez in particular raising his summer price tag considerably. They also have a good draw, as they’ll be favored against Ghana in the next round, and then once in the Final Four might well have the defensive prowess to lock things up and sneak through on penalties.

Really, you can’t go wrong either way. And because they’re in opposite halves of the bracket, you’ll really only have to pick one if they both make the finals. So vamos el Celeste (“sky blues”, Uruguay’s nickname) y Albiceleste (“white and blues”, Argentina’s nickname). And enjoy the rest of the Ricardo Clark-free World Cup, USA fans.

World Cup Tomorrow: Sunday, June 27

Tomorrow is Christmas morning for soccer fans, as four teams with long and proud World Cup histories come together in Sweet 16 clashes. Let’s get right to it.

England v. Germany (10 AM ET)

England finally managed to get their weight back on the front foot in their final group game, beating Slovenia 1-0. James Milner (whose former club coach at Newcastle infamously once said “We’ll never win anything with a team of James Milners”) proved the difference, giving the team width and good crosses. Getting the stolid Emile Heskey off the field helped as well. But the team still looked a little iffy at the back, which is perhaps unsurprising given that they were down to their 4^th-string choice for John Terry’s central defense partner. Jamie Carragher returns from suspension for this round, though it’s unclear whether that does anything to improve the situation, given that he only just came out of international retirement for this World Cup .

Slovenia didn’t have the team speed to exploit that weakness at the back, something that clearly won’t be the case for Germany so long as Memet Oezil is around. The little German (well, Turkish) attacker has been one of the revelations of the tournament, as we don’t see who on England is going to be able to match up against him, unless Gareth Barry is suddenly all the way back from injury. Oezil will combine with German (well, Polish) strikers Miloslav Klose and Lucas Podolski to present an attacking threat England hasn’t seen yet. Germany’s defense is a bit of an unknown though, and is very young for a team with Cup-winning aspirations.

Both teams will be well supported, England with jingoistic lager lads, and Germany with a more mixed crowd that will be baffled by England’s jingoism, given that England actually won the war.

Prediction: England 1-1 Germany (Germany advance on penalties. Germany always advance on penalties.)

Argentina v. Mexico (2:30 PM)

Another great game, and a rematch of a 2-1 Argentina victory from the last World Cup. Argentina have had trouble getting all the way into top gear, in part because Leo Messi hasn’t gotten the ball into the back of the net. He has played about as well as an attacker can play without scoring, though, and Argentina had more than enough residual quality to top their group. If there are concerns, they’re at the back, where Martin Demichelis is terrifying all Argentines, and notional all-field CM Juan Veron is proving unable to get up and down the field. Even with that, Argentina have been on the very short list of elite teams at this tournament.

Mexico have been getting lots of good press for their attractive, attacking play, but have not been getting results to match. They were outplayed by Uruguay, and gave up a bad tying goal to South Africa, which is how they ended up facing Argentina this early despite being a popular second-choice team. We think they really need to bite the bullet and start Javier Hernandez up front. Yes, that will leave them with a starting attacking trio with an average age of about 22. But we’d rather talent than anything else, especially when up against the ridiculous top-to-bottom talent of Argentina. If Hernandez starts, we’ll see goals. If not, it could be yet another pretty defeat for Mexico.

Prediction: Argentina 3-1 Mexico

World Cup Tomorrow: Saturday, June 26

And, finally, we’re into the knockout round. All the usual clichés apply: Do or die; win or go home; steak, chicken, or fish. Tomorrow’s games feature one fun matchup between teams who have played better than expected, and one likely nailbiting slugfest between teams who haven’t quite fired on all cylinders to date.

Uruguay v. South Korea (10 AM ET)

No, seriously, we really like this game. Uruguay have visibly gained confidence as they’ve gone along in South Africa. They sort of hedgehog-ed in their opener against France, not realizing that they were playing an empty husk rather than the defending World Cup finalists. Once they ground out that result they opened up, giving Diego Forlan a new role as a withdrawn striker playing behind 1 or 2 men up front. Forlan has energized the team, scoring multiple goals and setting up others. As a result, Uruguay have looked like the third-best team in the draw, behind only Brazil and Argentina (it’s been a great World Cup to date for South America).

They’ve drawn South Korea, who impressed early in running over Greece 2-0, before eating a 4-1 loss to Argentina and enduring a nervous 2-2 draw against Nigeria. As you can see, the common denominator in all three games was goals. South Korea get forward in numbers, and have shown both excellent speed on the counterattack and the ability to score off of free kicks (something most other teams have been unable to do so far). But they weren’t skilled enough to defend against Argentina, and weren’t athletic enough to defend against Nigeria. Uruguay’s frontline will pose another problem, especially with Forlan in this kind of form.

Prediction: Uruguay 2-1 South Korea. An entertaining game to watch even without a rooting interest.

USA v. Ghana (2:30 PM ET)

Side note: we snuck around the corner to what turned out to be a unofficial carpenter’s union bar to watch the last 15 minutes of USA-Algeria. The place was filled with exactly the sort of Real Murcans who theoretically hate soccer as a socialist evil. Instead, they were running through tiebreaker scenarios and threatening to go climb on a plane and f#$k up the linesman. (And also drinking a ton of beer for 11:30 in the morning, so consider avoiding buying new construction in the vicinity of City Hall in Manhattan.) The place went bonkers when Landon Donovan scored. We’re not saying that these guys will be getting up early to watch a Wigan v, West Bromwich Albion game this fall, but soccer has apparently cleared some sort of hurdle in this country.

So, the game. Somewhat lost in all the mayhem of blown calls and last-second comebacks is the fact that the USA haven’t actually played all that well for large stretches, and have started every game terribly. They still haven’t settled on a defensive pairing, with Oguchi Onyewu hitting the bench against Algeria in order to get more speed on the field in the person of Jonathan Bornstein, nor have they settled on a defensive central midfield partner for Michael Bradley, with three different guys getting starts in the three group games. By this point, you’d like to have more certainty. Says here that Gooch will come back in to wrestle with Ghana’s target forward Assamoah Gyan, and that Maurice Edu will be the CDM going forward. But all these changes create the risk of yet more dumb mistakes early on.

Ghana’s performance has also been a little mixed. They’ve been well-organized in every game, playing a defense-first formation that relies on long balls to Gyan to start the offense, and keeps a fair number of guys behind the ball at all times. But they’ve also been lucky—they haven’t scored from open play (just on penalty kicks), and only had to play against 10 Australians for most of the match (and even then only managed a draw). In other words, they’ve been unable to score in the absence of some massive brain fart by the opposing team. Unfortunately for the US, they’ve been brainfart specialists to date.

Prediction: USA 1-1 Ghana (USA advances on shootout)

World Cup Tomorrow: Friday, June 25

Apologies to our six or so regular readers, who were deprived of our wisdom on today’s games. Real-life intervened. Although we know it’s a little easy to say now, we had NZ-Paraguay pegged for the correct 0-0 score, and also had Italy going out (as Angelo notes below), though we saw it as 1-0 instead of the 3-2 barnburner that actually took place.

Anywho, tomorrow marks the end of the group stage, and the start of the “real” tournament. Will we lose any other big name teams? And is there any way to top the Germany-England and Argentina-Mexico we already have lined up for thee Sweet 16?

Group G (10 AM ET)

North Korea v. Ivory Coast

Wow, so, North Korea. That had to hurt. For those who complain about the defensive tactics adopted by so many teams in group play, look no further than North Korea’s 0-7 beating to see why those tactics are necessary. For some reason, North Korea played a much higher defensive line against Portugal than the did against Brazil, and it led to a series of Globetrotter-style fastbreak goals against (we’re not sure, but we think we saw Simao Sabrosa throw down a windmill dunk at some point). Their families have undoubtedly been jailed as a result, which will probably dampen morale a bit.

Ivory Coast were disappointing against Brazil. They lost control of the midfield early on, and followed up by losing control of their damn minds at the end. Didier Drogba’s consolation goal was nice, but they didn’t look like a team capable of making a run. They also find themselves staring up at a ridiculous GD deficit that they’ll need to make up in order to advance. But their direct style could work well against North Korea, especially if they play with that ridiculous high line again and give Drogba room in behind.

Prediction: Ivory Coast 4-1 North Korea. Not enough.

Brazil v. Portugal

Math dictates that this should be a boring game. Brazil need only a draw to capture the group; Portugal probably need only to avoid a blowout to capture second. So the numbers say that 0-0 would suit both teams just fine. The problem is that there’s more than a little animosity between the teams. Brazil coach Dunga has referred to the “huge rivalry” with the former mother country, and has derisively (if accurately and humorously) referred to Portugal’s team as “Brazil B”.

Plus, at a more basic level, it’s tough to envision two more opposite cultures. Brazil is the home of samba, thongs (both kinds), and a sort of sunny optimism. Portugal is the home of fado, widow’s wear, and a sort of fatalistic pessimism. We’re talking borderline thesis-antithesis stuff here. So these teams have plenty of non-math reasons for going at it.

What’s that? You wanted to hear about the game? Fine. Philistine.

Prediction: 1-0 Brazil. Though note that Portugal would top the group with a win, giving the first of two roads to a potential Brazil-Spain round of 16 game that might rip a hole in the space-time continuum.

Group H (2:30 PM ET)

Chile v. Spain

Sneaky potential for a classic here. Spain—by which we really mean David Villa—caught fire against Honduras, showing flashes of the form we all expected to see coming in. We think there’s more to come against Chile. The only difference is that Honduras were unable to stop Spain, whereas Chile might just be disinterested in doing so. The Chileans have swashbuckled their way to the top of the standings, using a 3-man front line to chip through two opponents who were determined to batten down the hatches. Spain will come out and play, though, and we think the results will be fun.

Note that this game gives us route B to the Brazil-Spain apocalypse, because Chile would top the group with a draw. That result could leave Spain in 2nd, where they would draw Brazil if Brazil hangs on to win its group. Also note that if Brazil lose to Portugal, this match could bog down in some weirdness as both teams try to avoid winning the group, and instead target 2d in order to duck the Brazilians.

Prediction: Chile 2-2 Spain. Great game.

Switzerland v. Honduras

UGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHH.

Prediction: Switzerland 0-0 Honduras. (Honestly, we suspect it might be 1-0 Switzerland, but don’t want to say that out loud, because on those results, Spain would be out altogether).

So we’re predicting Chile-Portugal and, yes, Brazil-Spain in the 16.

World Cup Horn Tooting

I want to give credit where it's due: my humble co-author, Sir Teddy, made predictions for who would advance from each group in December 2009, which can be found here and here. You'll note he's batting 9 for 10 so far, only missing on Uruguay instead of France, and in fairness, it was a little tough to see 7 months ago the civil unrest surrounding Les Blues. This offsets my poor horse racing picks by a factor of 20. Kudos, Teddy.

As you were.

World Cup Tomorrow: Wednesday, June 23

Groups C and D finish up Wednesday, and the possibility (albeit slim) exists that we could see both England and Germany exit the tournament. Given the Euro-phobic nature of this year’s WC, both teams should watch their backs.

Group C (10 AM ET)

Slovenia v. England

We’re not quite sure what to say about England’s last match, when they were pretty much unable to string together 3 consecutive passes against Algeria. More than that, the team seemed tired and slow, built around an all-too-rickety center of the old John Terry and Jamie Carragher at center back, the still-injured Gareth Barry at CDM, and the apparently disinterested Frank Lampard at CAM. They’re better than this, surely, but are running out of chances to prove it. Coach Fabio Capello faces a tough decision: to stick with the players and formation that got him here, or blow it up, bench Lampard, move Steven Gerrard to CAM, and get someone like Joe Cole in as an additional attacking option.

Given Slovenia’s defensive organization (and the fact that they only need a draw to advance), we’d take option B. Slovenia’s defense needs to be either unlocked (as the USA was unable to do in the first half of their game) or just overwhelmed (as the USA did in the second half). But they won’t give goals away. Slovenia’s relative lack of pace up front will help England, though, as Slovenia will be forced to try to beat tall, skilled, physical England center backs with tall, physical, but unskilled forwards.

Prediction: England 0-0 Slovenia. This is one of those games that will turn completely on whether an early goal comes. If England break out, they could hit 4 or so.

USA v. Algeria

The USA did it again in their last match, coming out tentative and stupid before working themselves into a Red Bull-based frenzy at halftime and running Slovenia off the field in the second half. This is just not a long-term strategy for success. Unfortunately for the USA, Algeria match up pretty well with them offensively despite their lack of goals in this WC. Karim Ziani and Nadir Belhadj have looked dangerous up the wings, where the USA is either slow (Carlos Bocanegra on the right) or dumb (whoever they roll out on the left). If the USA can somehow score first, they should be able to keep the ball away from those guys because they should dominate through the center of the field. But again, that’s far from a sure thing.

Prediction: USA 1-1 Algeria. More cardiac kids stuff. If we’re right on these two results, Slovenia wins the group and the USA go through to the knockout round over England on goals scored.

Group D (2:30 PM ET)

Germany v. Ghana

Ghana actually lead the group at present with 4 points. But they’ve only scored twice in the tournament, and both have come on penalty kicks. We haven’t seen much to indicate that they’ll be able to open up the German defense (though, to be fair, we also haven’t really had a chance to see Germany defend normally, as they were down a man to Serbia and didn’t have to defend against Australia). To the extent that you can be a “soft” unbeaten team, we think Ghana are that team. The underwhelming performance of the other African teams don’t give us much more confidence, either.

Germany, despite their surprise loss, are still in OK shape. Their loss came in a game in which they ate a bad red card, and also missed a penalty kick that would have tied the game. Barring something weird here, they should still advance. Though there has been a lot of weirdness so far…

Prediction: Germany 2-0 Ghana. No more.

Serbia v. Australia

Both of these teams could still go through, though they each need some help in the other game. Serbia stole the aforementioned game off of Germany. They played smartly and toughly, if not all that well, which is a decent summary of their identity as a team. Australia bounced off the canvas to salvage a point against Ghana in a game in which they again ended up down a man. We no longer have any idea which Australian players remain unsuspended for this game, but do know that they’re going to have to stop playing Aussie Rules if they want to get a result here. Because of Germany’s better goal difference, Serbia needs to better Germany’s result this round in order to advance. So, unless Germany give up an early goal, expect this to be a lively affair.

Prediction: Serbia 1-1 Australia

By our math, that means we’re looking at Germany-USA (rematch of WWII) and Slovenia-Serbia (rematch of every second Saturday night gunfight since the Ottomans pulled out) in the Sweet 16.

World Cup Tomorrow

Four on the floor as we head for the door of the group stage. We’ll wrap up groups A and B today (mercifully so, for the French and Nigerians), and start seeding up the Sweet Sixteen, which is where the real soccer starts. The winner of Group A will draw the second place team from Group B, and vice versa. Groups C and D are identically paired.

Group A (all matches 10AM ET)

Uruguay v. Mexico

Uruguay and Mexico each have 4 points, with Uruguay ahead on goal differential following Diego Forlan’s rampage against South Africa. Both teams would automatically advance with a draw, which, let’s be honest, makes a draw a very likely result here. Mexico has slightly more reason to attack, given that a draw would leave them staring at an expected Sweet 16 game against Argentina, instead of Greece or South Korea. But Mexico are also a little nicked up, with attacking winger Carlos Vela out for a week. So long as nobody does anything stupid, this one’s going to end tied.

Prediction: Uruguay 0-0 Mexico

France v. South Africa

Well, what the hell can you say about France at this point. By general agreement, the coach is an idiot, yet circumstances have so conspired to make it that just about everyone associated with the French team has quit other than him. We have no idea who will show up for this last game, and neither do you. France should have incentive to try, because they can somehow get through if they win big and there’s no draw in the other match. But somehow we doubt that’s going to get the blood going. South Africa, on the other hand, is looking at their last match as hosts (again, barring a miracle). This is their World Cup final, and they will no doubt throw themselves into it. Also, the crowd is going to be berserk.

Prediction: South Africa 1-0 France. Because why not?

Group B (all matches 2:30PM)

Nigeria v. South Korea

We suppose that someone has to come in second in this group, and South Korea is our first candidate. After an impressive win over Greece, South Korea sort of naively walked into the bear trap that is Argentina and acted surprised when they lost a leg. Korea have tons of self-belief and energy, but sometimes those things can bite you when the guy on the other side is just better than you—everyone else plays 10 behind the ball against Argentina for a reason. In any event, South Korea should have a much better time with a disappointing Nigerian team that is just waiting for its vacation at this point.

Prediction: South Korea 2-0 Nigeria

Greece v. Argentina

Hmm. On the one hand, Greece are lucky to still be in with a chance, having gotten into control of its match with Nigeria only after Nigeria went down a man. On the other, they should be able to roll up into a ball and defend against an Argentina team with nothing to play for, and might get lucky again if the Argentines get bored or frustrated (which, let’s be honest, they sometimes do). For some reason, we see Argentina’s subs coming out and giving Greece a taste of the back of their hands.

Prediction: Argentina 3-0 Greece

So, for the record, we’re calling Argentina-Mexico (big names, fun) and Uruguay-South Korea (not big names; don’t be fooled, still fun) for the Sweet 16.

World Cup Tomorrow: Monday, June 21

And down the stretch we come on the second set of group games. For the final set, FIFA changes the schedule so that matches in the same group are played simultaneously. The idea is that it’s harder for teams to tacitly agree on a mutually beneficial result if they don’t know exactly what they need coming in. So enjoy the last day of wall-to-wall soccer.

Portugal v. North Korea (Group G, 7:30 AM ET)

The only bet we’d advise making on this game is taking the over on Cristiano Ronaldo hissyfits at any line up to +/- 4.5 (Even). Once again, North Korea will be looking to pack the back and hoping to somehow steal a goal through Jong Tae-Se. North Korea did a really nice job against Brazil, allowing to generate only one good chance down the center of the field (of course, Brazil scored on that chance through Robinho and Elano).

They’ll do the same here against a Portugal team that looked a little bit creaky through the center of midfield against Cote d’Ivoire. Specifically, Deco couldn’t break free of the pressing, physical CdI midfielders. It will be interesting to see whether North Korea take the same approach, or don’t want to risk coming out to press Deco. We think he still has enough in the tank to be useful if he’s given time and space, so if we were North Korea (an admittedly difficult thought experiment) we’d come out and challenge him in the center, while keeping wide players a little further back to guard against Ronaldo. Portugal are going to have to find a goal scoring threat somewhere, or they’re going to go down as the best team not to have scored at a WC.

Prediction: Portugal 1-0 North Korea. Ronaldo scores from a free kick, which seems like the only way Portugal could score against anyone right now.

Chile v. Switzerland (Group H, 10 AM)

Somehow, this is a battle for first place in the group. Chile were, as expected, much the better team against Honduras, and could easily have won by more than one goal. They stayed committed to getting forward in numbers as well—it’s a shame that the Chile-Spain game might not mean anything, because that would be a fantastic game to watch, with both teams attacking ad enough skill on display to translate those attacks into goals. Chile will no doubt attack in this game as well, both because that’s how they generally play and because they’ll want to go into that Spain game with 6 points already in the bank.

Switzerland pulled off the shock of the first round, beating Spain 1-0 despite being outshot 8,000,0000-3 (roughly). This was the Swiss team that breezed through qualifying, not the guys who sleepwalked through this spring’s warm-up games. The Swiss have to feel pretty good about this game as well, because Chile aren’t as talented as Spain, and should leave more openings for counterattacks. But we’re not as sanguine—the Swiss have issues now that Philippe Senderos has joined their lengthy injury list. Plus, they spent an awful lot of energy chasing Spain around, and the Euro teams have all looked a little winded in this second round.

Prediction: Chile 2-0 Switzerland

Spain v. Honduras (Group G 2:30 PM)

Look, we know we did this before and it bit us, but Spain really are too good to lose to Honduras. Anything but a Spain win would be the shock of the year.

Prediction: Spain 2-0 Honduras

World Cup Tomorrow: Sunday, June 20

The second set of group games have dissolved into total chaos. That hasn’t been good for our prognostication record, but it’s been fun as hell to watch. A couple of interesting games on tomorrow’s card will hopefully keep up the momentum.

Slovakia v. Paraguay (Group F, 7:30AM ET)

In the interest of strict honesty, this game isn’t likely to get the day off to a particularly momentous start. Slovakia and Paraguay are each hard-working, defense-first teams. To the extent that you’re a believer in momentum, Paraguay have to come in feeling better about themselves, having grabbed a point off of group favorites Italy, than Slovakia do after their inexplicable draw with New Zealand. Expect Slovakia to come out aggressively, because they need all three points with Italy on the horizon, whereas Paraguay would be thrilled to just bank another point and head into their New Zealand match controlling their own destiny.

Prediction: Slovakia 1-1 Paraguay

Italy v. New Zealand (Group F, 10AM)

Both of these teams outperformed our expectations in their first game. Italy looked surprisingly spry going forward, with replacement CM Riccardo Montolivo and winger Pepe impressing. The more we look at the team, the more we realize that the age is at the back, where 2006 hero Fabio Cannavaro has lost a step, and GK Gianluigi Buffon is out with a back injury. Italy will score more than we expected, but they’re also going to concede more.

New Zealand stole a late goal against Slovakia to get their first-ever World Cup point. The rest of the tournament is pretty much gravy for them, because they’ve shown they belong and have probably ensured that they won’t finish last. The Kiwis actually gave Italy a scare last year in a pre-Confederations Cup friendly, though we think that’s actually bad news for them here, because it lessens the chance that Italy think they can win just by showing up.

Prediction: Italy 2-1 New Zealand

Brazil v. Cote d’Ivoire (Group G, 2:30 PM)

Fun. As we thought, Brazil were a little subdued against North Korea, finding it tough to break down the stubborn Korean defense and even giving up a dumb late goal once the game was safely in hand. Unless Kaka can get things going in midfield, Brazil are going to be more dependent on counter-attacks than usual, which limited them against a team that had no intention of attacking. Expect better against CdI, who will actually come out to play a little more.

Oh, and yes, Maicon meant that goal.

Cote d'Ivoire also looked more or less like we thought they would, with excellent athletes and much improved organization. But they also had the expected lack of touch in front of goal until Didier Drogba came on, broken arm and all, to lead the frontline. Drogba will apparently start against Brazil, which should give CdI a fighting chance. Bear in mind that a draw is a good result for CdI, because they’d likely be able to go into their last game against North Korea knowing how many goals they’d need to advance.

Prediction: Brazil 2-1 CDI

World Cup Tomorrow: Saturday, June 18

We’re not going to lie to you; none of these games have much in the way of curb appeal. But half the fun of the World Cup is watching some random group match turn into a classic, and the second set of group games has been fun thus far. Cross your fingers.

Netherlands v. Japan (Group E, 7:30 AM ET)

We can’t even muster a witty one-sentence preview for this one. Frankly, the Dutch should run the Japanese team off the field on talent alone. But Japan won’t beat themselves, and will undoubtedly come out in a defensive shell in an attempt to steal the 4th group point that could see them through. The Dutch will spend a fair amount of time dithering around trying to break through, and probably will do so. Not much to say beyond that.

Prediction: Netherlands 2-0 Japan

Ghana v. Australia (Group D, 10 AM)

Here, by contrast, both teams will probably play for the win in what has turned into a wide-open group following Germany’s surprise loss to Serbia. Ghana stole a win from Serbia in round one, and could take control of the group with another win here. The Ghanaians didn’t show a ton coming forward in that first match, but might not need to against an Australian team that looked like they’d just met for the first time about 15 minutes before getting pasted by Germany. Australia also lost their best player, Tim Cahill, to a red card, meaning he’ll be suspended for this match. Like Germany, Ghana have a bunch of athletic midfielders who the Australian defense will struggle to contain. Ghana lack Germany’s touch in front of goal, so another 4-0 nightmare is unlikely. But it’s a long way back for Australia.

Prediction: Ghana 2-1 Australia

Cameroon v. Denmark (Group E, 2:30 PM)

Although it was overshadowed a bit by the poor showings of big-name countries like Spain and France, Cameroon were one of the real disappointments of the first round. Almost any team with Samuel Eto’o should beat Japan, but Cameroon never really got into the game. Denmark were predictably boring against the Netherlands, rolling up into a defensive posture that worked right up until they conceded an own goal out of nowhere. Expect more defense-first thinking here, because Denmark could very well reason that Cameroon won’t be able to unlock them like the Netherlands did, and won’t want to get into a run-and-gun style game with Cameroon’s athletic attackers.

Prediction: 1-1

World Cup Tomorrow: Friday, June 18th

Stat of the tournament to date: North Korea and New Zealand are currently outscoring Spain, Portugal, and Cote d'Ivoire. Hope somebody out there had some money on that bet. In any event, tomorrow’s games feature an echo of WWII, a likely whitewashing, and the biggest game of the WC for the USA.

Germany v. Serbia (Group D, 7:30 AM ET)

One-sentence preview: Don’t say anything that even sounds like “Ustazi”

Germany were the tournament’s high scorer in the first round of games, courtesy of a combination of calm finishing and hilariously bad defense and bad judgment by Australia (did we not warn you about Tim Cahill? We warned you about Tim Cahill.) Germany got yet another goal from Miloslav Klose who has now scored only one fewer career World Cup goal than Pele, despite not being any good. I can’t even think of an equivalent in US sports; maybe Robert Horry, or Eli Manning if he wins another Super Bowl. Anyway, the Germans appear to be in mid-tournament form, which is bad news for their opponents.

Serbia were a bit of a trendy pick coming in, but were upset in their first game after they conceded a penalty kick on an absolutely ridiculous handball. They’re now up against it, because if they lose here they’ll need absolutely everything to break their way in order to get out of the group. They’re better than they showed, but will have to jump up about three levels to get a point off the Germans. Given the Serbs notoriously long historical memories, maybe they’ll draw inspiration from Germany’s occupation of Serbia during WWII (note: we would not want to be a Croat at this match). But it’s more likely that they’ll be worn down by this young, confident German team.

Prediction: Germany 2-1 Serbia

USA-Slovenia (Group C, 10AM)

One sentence preview: USA-England was the drive for show; USA-Slovenia is the putt for dough

It’s a little tough to know what to think about the USA’s result against England. We were unimpressed with the USA defenders (especially Oguchi Onyewu, who was repeatedly drawn out of position), and their goal was clearly down more to England’s two-decade long inability to produce a goalkeeper than to any skill by Clint Dempsey. But the midfield was generally good—England had real trouble moving the ball forward in rhythm, and the USA looked more composed than usual over the ball.

The only real midfield failure came from Ricardo Clark. Clark was in there for his athletic gifts, but looked lost, especially early. Against Slovenia, the US would be well served to bench Clark and put in Jose Torres, a much smaller player with much better passing ability. They also might want to make similar change up front, benching the fast but stone-footed Robbie Findley for the slower but more clinical Edson Buddle. The US had to withstand England; they’ll have to unlock Slovenia.

Slovenia looked for all the world like they were on their way to a lousy draw in their first game when Algeria managed to self-destruct and hand them the three points. As expected, Slovenia looked good at the back, with only wide runs by Nadir Belhadj really causing any problems. Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey came inside a lot against England, but it looks like they’ll have to stay further out to be effective against a defensive-minded Slovenia team. Working against the US is the fact that a draw suits Slovenia just fine; we think Slovenia are willing to risk going into the last round against England looking for 1 point and forcing the US to beat Algeria.

Prediction: USA 2-1 Slovenia. At this point, we’re just budgeting in a terrible early goal allowed by the US. That will mean a nervous 60 minutes or so, but we believe.

England v. Algeria (2:30 PM, Group C)

One-sentence preview: This is going to go exactly how you think it will.

Yes, England looked a little discombobulated on Saturday. Yes, Robert Green was terrible (in addition to The Miss, he should have done better with Jozy Altidore’s second-half breakaway—he got lucky and sort of muffed it onto the post). And yes, Wayne Rooney was strangely uninvolved, probably because the midfield of Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard aren’t used to playing with possession-heavy forwards. But Algeria just dissolved. Their goalkeeper let up a goal that was 80% as bad as Green’s, and their leading scorer from qualifying ate a red card, meaning he’s suspended for this match. Everyone thought this was a mismatch coming in, and one bad goal doesn’t change that.

Prediction: England 3-0 Algeria

World Cup Tomorrow: Thursday, June 17th

The second set of group games begin in earnest, and give us an entertaining match-up, another look at the host team, and crucial match between two teams that find themselves at risk of an unexpectedly early exit.

Argentina v. South Korea (Group B, 7:30 AM ET)

Yum! Only a very few teams managed to score multiple goals in the first round, and of those South Korea might have been the most unexpected. The Koreans looked really good, keeping a bigger Greece squad at bay and showing real quality in the attacking areas of midfield. They even got a really nice strike out of captain Park Ji-Sung, which might mean that our dire prediction about their abilities in front of goal might be overstated. Because South Korea are currently ahead on goal difference, even a draw here gives them the inside track to winning the group. This is more or less a free roll for them, which makes them dangerous.

In our first round preview, we identified two big questions for Argentina: (1) could Lionel Messi bring it for Argentina the way he has for Barcelona; and (2) did Juan Sebastian Veron have enough left in the tank to act as Argentina’s midfield engine. Question #1 was answered with a pretty emphatic “yes”. Messi didn’t score, but he was a constant danger and looked like the sort of one-man wrecking crew he so often was in La Liga this year.

Question #2…well, that answer was considerably more equivocal. Veron played so-so, and was substituted off after about 70 minutes. His performance might be excused by the fact that Nigeria played an up-and-down game that didn’t really lend itself to a composed midfield performance—the game alternated stretches of wingers going off to the races with stretches of unsuccessful long balls. Veron will be needed more against South Korea, who will look to press the ball more and are better organized at the back. Someone will have to get the ball to the attacking talent in the right place, and we’re still not sure Veron is that guy.

Prediction: Argentina 2-2 South Korea. Must see.

Greece v. Nigeria (Group B, 10AM)

Woof. Greece looked absolutely terrible against South Korea. The lack of offense wasn’t a surprise, but the lack of organization at the back very much was. If these guys aren’t at the top of their game tactically, their lack of talent will lead to a series of woodshed beatings. One such beating is already in the can; another seems likely to follow against Argentina. This is Greece’s best chance to get its first-ever World Cup point.

We sort of don’t know how to feel about Nigeria. On the one hand, it’s not really surprising for a team to look bad playing against Argentina. On the other, nobody besides goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama looked much good at all. For all their terrible play against South Korea, you’d have to figure that Greece will reorganize to the point that Nigeria will have to do something special to unlock them. Right now, it’s unclear where that something special will come from.

Prediction: 0-0. Must not see.

France v. Mexico (Group A, 2:30 PM)

Both teams are undoubtedly disappointed by their first round ties. The difference is that France must also be disappointed about their level of play, whereas Mexico are likely just frustrated that their advantage in possession didn’t translate into a win.

So, let’s see. France never really threatened a dull Uruguay team. One of their better attacking players (Florent Malouda) was benched because of some unspecified conflict with the team’s super-flake coach, “Everybody Hates” Raymond Domenech, who learned just before coming to the World Cup that he has already been fired as of the end of the tournament. And the locker room might be split over who should be captain. So, off to a good start for Les Bleus. They really are much better than they’ve shown recently, but at this point, you’d have to think that entropy has taken over. It’s getting eerily 2002 in here.

Mexico, on the other hand, played pretty well against a fired up South African team, and was slightly unlucky not to win. They looked great in the middle 80% of the field, but showed a little bit of weakness up front and at the back. If you want to worry about Mexico, worry that this is becoming a pattern—they’ve outplayed their result more than once over the WC and warm-up season. So this might not be bad luck (or not only bad luck), but a sign that the team isn’t quite connecting up enough to get them over the top. For this match, watch whichever of Carlos Vela or Gio Dos Santos gets matched up against whichever stopgap plays in the right side of France’s defense.

Prediction: Mexico 2-0 France. We think the Mexicans put it together.

World Cup Tomorrow: Wednesday, June 16th

Edit June 16th: ESPN.com gave me a bum steer on the schedule. The second set of games actually starts this afternoon, with South Africa v. Uruguay. It's a little late for a full preview, but we'll go on record with a prediction of 1-1.

Back down to two games tomorrow, as the first set of group matches wrap up. The second set are usually the best, as they feature the highest percentage of games where both teams are playing for the win, so look for things to pick up starting Thursday.

Honduras v. Chile (Group H, 7:30 AM ET)

One-sentence preview: A game unlikely to mark the turning point in what has been a lackluster first round to date.

Honduras might be the most forgettable team in this year’s World Cup. New Zealand are worse but cuter; North Korea are worse but are North Korea. Honduras are merely the third qualifying team from a region that only goes two teams deep (Mexico and the US). They come in on the back of an 0-2-2 warm up campaign, with draws against Belarus and Azerbaijan (really) and losses to Venezuela and Romania. None of those four teams were good enough to make the Cup. So…yeah. Oddly, their strength is probably up front, where Carlos Pavon and David Suazo are both grizzled vets with experience playing in the trenches of the Italian Serie A.

Chile, on the other hand, were picked by ZonalMarking.net as maybe the most tactically interesting team in the tournament. They play a moderately wacky 3-3-1-3 formation that is designed to spread the field and put unusual pressure on their opponents as they try to bring the ball out of their own half. A talented team can take advantage of this by finding space in behind the pressure. Fortunately for Chile, they’re not playing a talented team; they’re playing Honduras. The team impressed during South American qualifying, finishing second behind Brazil, and played OK in warm-up matches (0-1 at Mexico’s impregnable Azteca Stadium; 3-0 and 1-0 over minnows Zambia and Ulster). One thing to keep an eye on is set pieces, because this is not a very big team.

Prediction: Chile 1-0 Honduras

Spain v. Switzerland (Group H, 10AM ET)

Spain are all kinds of fun. No matter how they structure their side, they’re going to end up leaving at least one world-class player on the bench (for this match, probably either the banged-up Andres Iniesta of Barcelona or Cesc Fabregas of Arsenal). They have great strikers up front in David Villa and Francisco Torres, and maybe the world’s most accurate passer in Xavi. They have multiple solid keepers. They go 5 deep on defense. And, most impressively, they have lost exactly once in the past three years (to the USA at last year’s Confederations Cup). If you’re looking for flaws, they were a little underwhelming in warm-up matches against Saudi Arabia (3-2) and South Korea (1-0), and also have a bunch of guys at about 80% health. Doesn’t matter; they’re still fun.

Switzerland, well, who knows. Last year was probably the best year in Swiss soccer history, as they breezed through World Cup qualifying and won the Youth World Cup, beating Nigeria in the final. But they’ve looked very, very mediocre this year, losing 1-3 to Uruguay, 0-1 to Costa Rica, and drawing a tired Italy team 1-1 at home. Keep an eye on striker Hakan Yakin because, well, come on. That’s an awesome name.

Prediction: Spain 2-1 Switzerland. Spain aren’t quite at their best yet, but don’t need to be.

World Cup Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 15th

Heat check: how are we actually doing at predicting these games? Well, so far we’re 7-for-10 at predicting results, and have called the exact scoreline twice. Not bad, if we do say so ourselves.

New Zealand v. Slovakia (Group F, 7:30 AM ET)

One-sentence preview: One of the contenders for the worst match of the competition (though we lean more towards Honduras-Switzerland ourselves).

New Zealand are here for the first time in almost 30 years, and feature a roster that includes an amateur who holds down a day job as a banker (Andy Barron), and (presumably) several sheep. But they also feature a guy who plays in the English Premier League (D Ryan Nelsen), and come in on a bit of a weird roll, having beaten Serbia and lost narrowly away to Australia in warm-ups. They will try hard. But, then, so did Australia, and see how far that got them.

Slovakia have more top-end players, especially D Martin Skrtl and M Vladimir Weiss (who is an English club teammate of New Zealand’s Nelsen). They finished at the top of their Central Europe-heavy qualifying group, satisfyingly keeping their old friends the Czech Republic out of the tournament along the way. They will try hard. One thing to watch: Slovakia weirdly both scored and allowed a lot of goals during qualifying, so there is the chance that this will turn into a sloppy shootout.

Prediction: Slovakia 1-0 New Zealand. Nope.

Ivory Coast v. Portugal (Group G, 10 AM)

One-sentence preview: Injuries take the air out of an otherwise fascinating Group of Death matchup.

Unfortunately, this game is as much about those who won’t be there as it is those who will. Ivory Coast were to have been led by Chelsea’s Randy Moss clone, F Didier Drogba, who has a fantastic knack for scoring goals in big English tournament games. Sadly, Drogna broke his arm in a friendly, and likey is out for the group stage (though he continues to maintain that he’ll make it back). In his absence, the team can still look to multiple players from Europe’s best leagues, including brothers Yaya and Kolo Toure, F Salomon Kalou, and D Emmaunel Eboue. While there’s still plenty of talen on hand, what’s a little uncertain now is whether the team can unlock a top-level defense in the absence of the one-man wrecking crew that is Drogba.

Bad luck, then, that the depleted Ivorians have drawn Portugal in the first round. Portugal have an extremely experienced defense, led by Drogba’s Chelsea teammate Ricardo Carvalho and the World’s Biggest Portagee, 6’2” FC Porto D Bruno Alves. Up front, it’s all about former world player of the year Cristiano Ronaldo, who’ll need to provide most of the offense for a team that’s always light on strikers. Portugal’s already limited offense took a hit recently, when Man U winger Nani went down with a collarbone injury. Nani could have given the team a much-needed wide attacking option that would have let Ronaldo act as more of an outright striker. Now, Ronaldo’s going to have to both create and finish the goals, which might be too much even for him.

Prediction: Portugal 0-0 Ivory Coast. Nobody wants to slip up early behind group favorites Brazil. This result means that the group’s second qualification place will come down to whoever beats North Korea the worst.

Brazil v. North Korea (2:30 PM, Group G)

One-sentence preview: Honest to God, this match is going to be close for a while.

On the one hand, this Brazil team is quintessential Brazil: they’re one of the favorites to win the World Cup, and have more talent than any other team (with the possible exception of Spain). On the other hand, this Brazil team is about as un-Brazilian as possible. Based on their form during the most recent club year, you can make the case that their three best players nominally operate in the defensive half of the field (Inter Milan GK Julio Cesar, Barcelona D Dani Alves, and Inter Milan D Maicon). With Kaka coming off a lousy year, Robinho having bombed out of European club football, and Ronaldinho having failed to even make the team, there is no obvious attacking fulcrum. Instead, this Brazil team can turn defense into offense faster and better than any other team in the world, with everyone up to and including the central defenders being capable of getting forward and scoring. This Brazil team will win less with flair than they will with toughness and overwhelming athleticism.

North Korea…well, nobody has any idea. They appear to have surprisingly decent finisher in Hong Yong-Jo, but that doesn’t matter in this game because he’ll never see the ball.

The reasons we see this game as being close initially are that (1) Brazil want to counter attack, but (2) North Korea are going to construct a derelict heavy machinery factory in front of their own goal and basically not leave their own end. You can’t counterattack if the other team never crosses midfield. It will take time for Brazil to break them down.

Prediction: Brazil 2-0 North Korea. Tied at halftime, though (and we bet the odds on a scoreless first half will be juicy).