We here at the GRBG wondered whether there was a way to separate out managerial performance and see how PECOTA would have done based on the rosters as drafted. As we wondered this, our eyes wandered to our Yahoo! notification stream, which informed us for the 200th consecutive day that Troy Percival was on the injured list, yet in our starting lineup. And then we remembered:
The Death Ship.
Because of various wacky mishaps with the draft system (and a certain owner's apparent inability to read a watch), on draft day the league created an alternate reality. That reality contained slightly warped copies of all our teams, with rosters as they stood after the completion of most of the draft. The bizarro league was then sealed up and left to play itself out without material interference from us. It became, essentially, a control group. So did PECOTA do any better predicting the bizarro world? Here are the predictions vs the actual standings:
|It's Enrico Palazzo||Wu Tang Financial||Le Dupont Torkies|
|Wu Tang Financial||Aroids Anonymous||Aroids Anonymous|
|Unenviable Position||Recalcitrant Cobbler||Mission Accomplished|
|Evil League of Evil||fakeleague (Ang)||Recalcitrant Cobbler|
|Mission Accomplished||Le Dupont Torkies||Flaccid Funiculi|
|Recalcitrant Cobbler||The Loose Bowels||Wu Tang Financial|
|The Loose Bowels||The Spam Avengers||wormcheese etc.|
|wormcheese etc.||wormcheese etc.||Unenviable Position|
|The Spam Avengers||Jake!Wrong League (Scot)||Evil League of Evil|
|Flaccid Funiculi||Unenviable Position||The Spam Avengers|
|Le Dupont Torkies||Draft? (Will)||It’s Enrico Palazzo|
|Aroids Anonymous||It’s Enrico Palazzo||The Loose Bowels|
Well, PECOTA did seem to come closer to the control group than it did to manager-affected reality, so maybe there's some value there after all. More interestingly, the gaps between the projections, control group, and reality give some interesting insights into who has done the best job as an owner this year (hint: not me). We'll cover that in a later post. But I'll tell you what: we should definitely make the Death Ship league an annual tradition so we can track this stuff.