2013 Preakness Preview

Well that was satisfying.

We're not going to lie - we haven't been happier after a race than we were after Orb won the Derby, and that includes some races where we had significant cashes.  Orb's dominant win was the public validation that Shug deserved after decades of being known to everyone in racing as a great trainer but fairly anonymous to the rest of the sports world.  That and the horse appears to be quite talented.  Orb obviously wasn't a fluke winner a la Giacomo or Mine That Bird, nor was he a fortunate winner like Super Saver, Funny Cide or War Emblem, all of which benefited from a fortuitous confluence of circumstances. His  win was the best Derby performance since Big Brown's in 2008, and was probably even better than that since Big Brown beat a class of horses that, frankly, stunk.

But as we all know, horses that look like world-beaters in the Derby don't always take the Preakness.  Fusaichi Pegasus looked similarly invincible in 2000 and lost to Red Bullet.  Monarchos ran a sub-2 minute Derby in 2001 and finished 6th in the Preakness.  Barbaro...well, moving right along.  And Street Sense got out-and-out beaten in the final furlongs by Curlin.  Now that was a stellar crop of horses and a great race (jump to 1:45):

So is another upset in store for Saturday?  Let's count down the runners from worst to first, with the assumption that it's a fast track at Pimlico.

We're Not Seeing It

9.  Titletown Five.  Unlike a lot of the recent editions of the Preakness, this year's race isn't full of horses that didn't run in the Derby and have absolutely no hope in the Preakness.  We have only three new shooters in Saturday's race, and this is the only one that clearly doesn't belong.  After breaking his maiden, he ran second in something called the Gazebo Stakes, followed by a horrible finish in the Louisiana Derby and a non-threatening fourth in the Derby Trial.  We also guarantee that this horse is going to get a lot more play than people think, between D. Wayne Lukas being his trainer and his owner being Paul Hornung.

8.  Oxbow.  While he did run 6th in the Derby, we can't help thinking that was simply a default finish on a day where the unforeseen early pace fried a few horses and the slop ruined the chances of a couple of others.  He was never in contention, never really threatened the top 5 finishers, and has pretty much stagnated since winning the Lecomte earlier this year.

Others Like Them, We Don't

7.  Itsmyluckyday.  Okay, we got suckered in at the Derby.  But we're not biting again.  At the end of the day we have a horse that seems to love Gulfstream and run so-so at all other tracks and probably peaked back in February.  And he's gotten slower as the distances have gotten longer, which is hardly a surprise given his breeding.  We do think that he plays an important part in the race though, because we wouldn't be surprised to see him chasing...

6.  Goldencents.  ...the horse that everyone thought was going to be on the lead in the Derby but wasn't.  So it wasn't Kevin Krigger's best move to put him 5 lengths off the pace, but would it have mattered?  Had he dueled with Palice Malice, he would have been fried.  Now he'll get a second chance to lull everyone to sleep with an early pace.  But we see three enormous problems with this strategy.  First, based on his breeding, we still don't think this horse wants the distance.  Second, we're not so sure he's going to get an easy lead, because we think Itsmyluckyday, Titletown Five and possibly Oxbow will also show speed.  Third, the lulling the field to sleep strategy is not the way to win the Preakness.  Since Louis Quatorze pulled it off in 1996, the only front-runners that have won the Preakness were War Emblem ('02) and Rachel Alexandra ('09).  The former was a legitimate runner with good early speed that it could carry for 9-10 furlongs; the latter was a Hall of Fame horse.  Goldencents is neither.  To us, he's a horse that was fortunate to win the Santa Anita Derby under perfect circumstances, and at 5-1, is a great bet-against on Saturday.

5.  Departing.  The likely second or third choice in the race, he exits a win in the Illinois Derby and only has one defeat in his 5 career starts.  His Illinois Derby win is pretty much irrelevant to us, as the race did not contain a single horse that was on the Triple Crown trail.  It's his third place finish in the Louisiana Derby that is more interesting to us, as he ran okay, but was passed late by both Revolutionary and Mylute and was almost passed by Golden Soul, the Derby runner-up.  An optimist would say that makes the Louisiana Derby a key race and his chances should be upgraded.  We're more pessimistic - we see no reason he can turn the tables on Mylute, and since Revolutionary and Golden Soul were beaten somewhat handily by Orb, we don't see how he closes the theoretical gap, especially since his breeding on the sire's side is pretty sprint-oriented.  And he's going to be about 9-2.  We're looking elsewhere.

4.  Mylute.  We still don't know what to make of this horse.  Excellent jockey Rosie Napravenik wisely turned him back into a stone closer in the Derby and he rallied to finish 5th, beaten about a length for second.  He ran a good "Sheets" number in the race, meaning while taking into account trip, etc., he was probably the second-best horse in the race.  That said, he was no threat to the winner and still strikes us as a horse that is more of a closing sprinter than a router - his father was two-time BC Sprint winner Midnight Lute and his dam is by sprinter Valid Expectations.  With a little less pace to run at in this race, he's going to be up against it if he's too far back, but we're not sure he has enough staying power to run with the front of the pack early and hold off the closers late.  He's got a shot to hit the board, but we think the win slot is highly unlikely.

In With a Chance

3.  Will Take Charge.  The three horses that have gotten the most discussion out of the Derby are the winner, Normandy Invasion (we'll get to him in the Belmont preview), and this guy, who had a horrible trip.  Take a look at the overhead shot at about the 0:43 mark; he's the horse in the white silks directly to the inside of Orb:

At you'll see, he comes to basically a dead stop when they hit the top of the stretch, as tiring Verrazano was directly in his path and caused his jockey to slam on the brakes.  We don't think he would have caught the winner - he was moving inside of him, remember - but he likely would have held on for a spot in the money.  Now couple this with the fact that Will Take Charge clearly prefers a fast track to a wet track - he flopped in his lone prior start on a sloppy surface, and his prior two runs on a fast track were both wins - and that he's well-bred for the distance, and gets a bump by going from jockey Jon Court to Mike Smith, and his chances look even better.  That said, he still has a lot of ground to make up on the Derby winner, as he still hasn't cracked a 3-digit speed figure in his 8-race career.

2.  Govenor Charlie.  He's only had three starts to date but the last two were quite good - a strong maiden win followed by a dominating performance in the Sunland Derby.  He was bound for the Derby until he came up with a foot bruise a week before the race, and trainer Bob Baffert decided to point him to the Preakness instead.  After a good workout on Monday, he's back on the Triple Crown trail with we think a chance to do something at a price.

Now we'll acknowledge there are a bunch of issues with this horse - he hasn't faced a single top-level horse yet, his breeding does have a fair amount of sprint influence (like Mylute, he's out of Midnight Lute), and he did have an injury significant enough to knock him out of the Derby.  But there are a lot of positives on the other side of the ledger; the presence of Baffert (who's won this race 5 times), a solid jockey in Martin Garcia (who won this race with Baffert on Lookin at Lucky in '10), good dam side breeding (his granddam is Hall of Famer Silverbulletday), a good workout to show he's healed, and the potential for a lot of improvement since it's his 4th career start.  And most importantly: the price.  He's 15-1 on the morning line and we think he'll be the second or third longest shot on the board.  We feel that if anyone's going to turn the tables on the winner, it's either going to be a horse with a bad trip in the Derby (Will Take Charge) or a newbie that makes The Proverbial Leap.  At 20-1 or so, he's definitely worth the gamble.

The Pick

1.  Orb.  Simply stated there's no reason to go against him.  The track condition doesn't matter as he has dominant wins on the slop and dirt.  He closed from the back of the pack to win last race but showed in the Florida Derby he can lay close if needed which is likely the case here.  He has a great trainer and the hottest jockey in America.  And he's likely still improving, as evidenced by his workout earlier in the week that left Shug McGaughey "breathless." When a trainer who eschews hyperbole is speaking in such reverent tones, we pay attention.  We think it's all setting up for a neat rematch in the Belmont with Revolutionary and Normandy Invasion coupled with a Triple Crown on the line, and are very excited to see him run on Saturday.  We think he improves yet again and runs away with the race.

How to Play the Race

Orb is going to be around 4-5, and while we think he's going to win, it's hard to argue that 4-5 is great value.  We can see saver bets on Will Take Charge and Govenor Charlie if they're over 10-1 and 20-1 respectively, but would avoid most other horses in the win slot.  The better idea is exotics: either keying Orb over those two horses and Mylute in triples and superfectas, or use Orb as a single in multi-race bets.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the Preakness!

2013 Kentucky Derby Preview Part III: The Top Half

We feel like we say this more often than not, but we think this is a pretty good crop of three year olds.  Most of the horses we're going to discuss today have been decent to good so far; there aren't a lot of stiffs in the top half of the pack.  Perhaps this is because this crop has been relatively injury-free this year so far - we can't think of too many of the chief contenders that fell to injury during the winter.  Of course, that happened last year as well and the class turned into a MASH unit by early August.

Let's get back at the countdown, starting with some of the horses that have accomplished a bit to date but we don't like on Saturday.

Prep Winners We're Against

10.  Java's War.  The winner of the Blue Grass Derby; his resume is a lot less impressive once it's scrutinized.  As we've said time and time again, the Blue Grass has become a fairly meaningless prep race because it's on polytrack, and the best finish we've seen out of a recent winner was Dullahan's non-threatening third last year.  Usually the winners do nothing of note on the dirt again - in fact, we're not sure that any of Dominican, Monba, General Quarters, Stately Victor or Brilliant Speed won another dirt race after the Blue Grass.  Even worse for this horse is his propensity to completely miss the break at the start of the race and spot the field several lengths.  That didn't hurt him in Keeneland where the field was smaller and the race played to a closer.  Neither is the case in the Derby.  He could clunk up for a piece of the superfecta but we think he's a great bet-against.

9.  Goldencents.  The only route for victory for this horse is to steal the race on the front end or just off of it, and he's shown no ability to rate more than a couple of lengths off the pace and his breeding (Into Mischief, a fairly obscure sprint-based sire we noted yesterday with Vyjack) suggests speed.  Sometimes that works - in his last race, the Santa Anita Derby, he sat just off little-hoper Super Ninety Nine and took over when he faded and nobody else could close.  Sometimes it doesn't - two races back, he dueled with Flashback and faded miserably in the stretch.  Now we get that people are speculating that this Derby has no speed and could be stolen on or near the front end, but we don't believe that, and Goldencents isn't a speed freak like Bodemeister who can try to make everyone catch him for 10 furlongs.  He's more of a conventional speed horse that shows no real desire to go beyond 9 furlongs under ideal circumstances, and is more likely to finish 18th than 1st.

8.  Overanalyze.  In theory there's a ton to like here: solid breeding, Todd Pletcher, and a win in the Arkansas Derby.  But once you get past that initial blast of positive information, it's a lot less interesting.  He's run exactly one race with over a 90 Gowanus Speed Figure (last year's Remsen), where he was hanging on for dear life at the end.  His return to racing in the Gotham earlier this year was horrendous, which he followed up with his Arkansas Derby victory that looked good visually but yielded a paltry 88 speed figure, which looks worse when you consider that his main competition (War Academy) didn't finish the race.  He's going to need to take a huge step forward to compete on Saturday, let alone win.

The Price Doesn't Match His Chances

7.  Revolutionary. The one guarantee we can give you is that this horse will be overbet in relation to his chances on Saturday solely because 3-time Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel will be in the irons.  After guiding to victory a favorite (Street Sense), logical horse (Super Saver) and utter bomb (Mine That Bird) in the last six years, the public is convinced that Borel's touch is golden and bets him accordingly. Two years ago Borel rode the horrendous Twice the Appeal to a 10th place finish at 12-1.  Had any other jockey been on him, he would have been at least 40-1.  Last year, Take Charge Indy was 12-1 when he should have been about twice that price.  The only horse he beat was Daddy Long Legs, who pulled up.

This isn't to say that Revolutionary has no chance in this race, but he's likely to be around 8-1 and his chances of winning are a lot longer than that.  After three races Revolutionary was considered a titanic disappointment, having failed to break his maiden and losing at 1-5 in an Aqueduct maiden race.  Clearly some switch finally flipped after that race, as he's torn off three straight victories in closing style, but it's really difficult to be impressed by those wins.  The first was over maidens at Aqueduct in the dead of winter; hardly a vintage crop of horses.  Next up was the Withers Stakes, a prep for a prep for the Wood Memorial, which he won by a hard fought neck over a horse that has done nothing since.  He followed that up with a grinding victory by a neck in the Louisiana Derby over Mylute, who was 19-1 that day and figures to be even longer on Saturday.  (We'll concede that a couple of other nice horses finished behind him that race, including Illinois Derby winner Departing and someone further up on this list.)  Add to these middling victories breeding that's schizophrenic on getting 10 furlongs - his sire, War Pass, screams sprinter, while his dam, Runup the Colors, was an excellent router - and we're reluctant to put him in the top tier of horses.

6.  Verrazano. Sabermetric studies have shown that generally speaking, baseball position players develop along a predictable curve where they show talent early, peak at ages 26-29, then have a noticeable decline into their mid-30s followed by a collapse.  Starting pitchers, by contrast, by and large do not follow an aging curve.  Some starters take years to develop into good pitchers and reach their peak when they're in their late 20s (Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, to name two).  Some start off fabulous and keep up a level of excellence for years (Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, Felix Hernandez).  Some take forever to reach their apex (R.A. Dickey, Jamie Moyer).  And tons more start off like a house on fire and flame out for any number of reasons - fans of Mark Mulder, Dwight Gooden, Barry Zito and Mark Prior are nodding right now, while Chris Sale and Matt Harvey acolytes are covering their eyes.

Horses, we believe, develop a lot more like pitchers than hitters.  Some will take years to get good and peak at ages 5 or 6.  Others peak when they're 3 or 4.  And some are prodigious right out of the gate and actually have their best starts in one of their first three races, which is akin to a pitcher having his best season his rookie or sophomore year.  You can't assume a pitcher will get better just because he's young, and you can't assume a horse will simply get better because he did well when he was running in allowance company.

We mention this because Verrazano has all the looks of a talented horse that may have already peaked in his 4-race career.  (He has other issues as well that we won't focus on: the lack of a start as a 2 year old and being sired by a pure sprinter.)  His maiden race was great - he won by over 16 lengths - and his second start was absolutely electric, as he sat a length off a contested pace and pulled away under a hand ride.  That yielded a 105 speed figure.  Stretched out to two turns, he won his next two starts (Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial) in a more professional manner, looking solid while never really dominating.  More importantly though, his speed figures have declined as the distances have gotten longer and he's faced more seasoned competition.

There's a good chance that the last two races were just consolidation races and he's ready to make a leap forward into greatness after getting the two-turn and stakes experience under the belt.  That's happened before.  But what we think is more likely is that he ran his best race in his second start and is on the decline.  We think he fades in the final furlongs and either retires or takes a break to return in shorter races.

Contenders for a Piece

5.  Black Onyx. We freely admit this is a little bit of a stab but there's a lot to like here on a horse that will be at least 30-1 (he's 50-1 on the morning line).  While his greatest success has come on synthetic surfaces, his breeding (Grade 1 winner Rock Hard Ten out of a Cape Town mare) is very dirt-oriented.  He isn't a dead closer and has enough tactical speed to be in the second or third flight of horses.  His speed figures, while slow, are on a definite path up.  And we love Kelly Breen with longshots - he did pull off Ruler on Ice in the 2011 Belmont.  We would be a bit surprised to see him on top, but not in triples or superfectas.

4.  Palice Malice. It's odd enough that a Todd Pletcher entry has already made 4 starts this year but this guy takes it to the next level by making the Derby his third start in 5 weeks. At some level we want him to win the Derby because it means Pletcher would have to run him 4 times in 7 weeks, which would be often of in harness racing, let alone Grade 1 thoroughbreds.

The reason this superbly bred colt is running so often is that he needed the points to qualify for the race.  Pletcher set up his schedule that the Louisiana Derby would be his big prep race but Palice Malice had a trip from hell where he was boxed in the stretch the entire time and never able to really run.  His connections - and in no small part, his owner, Cot Campbell of Dogwood Stables - decided to wheel him back two weeks later in the Blue Grass, where he wrested control at the top of the stretch but ultimately lost to the late-charging Java's War.  But that was a synthetic surface which we suspect wasn't his best surface and think he'll move forward off that race.  We also like the fact that he's going against the grain by running so often and think this may inure to his benefit. That said, this guy has only won once to date, so be careful about taking him in the win slot.

3.  Normandy Invasion. We really like his form cycle coming into this race: an excellent second to close out his 2yo campaign, followed by a start off a layoff that was pretty meaningless and an excellent second to Verrazano in the Wood where he was closing late.  While we think his trainer Chad Brown is poised to make The Leap into fame and like his breeding for the distance, we have two major concerns.  First is the fact that this guy is a world beater at Aqueduct and squarely pedestrian elsewhere.  That could be coincidence but he could also be a horse for the course.  The second is the fact that he's only won one race lifetime.  Every year we get horses that are good closers but light on the victory tab that are heavily bet during the Triple Crown.  They're fair bets to finish in the money but never win - think of Nehro in the 2011 Derby.  He may be another one of those who menaces but can't close the deal and ultimately finishes a good third.

2.  Itsmyluckyday. The Forgotten Horse.  After a decent but pretty uninteresting 2 year old campaign (which had 7 starts!), the light switch turned on when he returned to the Gulfstream dirt, as he won an ungraded stakes on January 1 by open lengths.  He then went to the Holy Bull where he beat BC Juvenile champ Shanghai Bobby handily by showing good tactical speed and drawing away in the stretch.  These two races were good for speed figures of 102 and 104, respectively.  He then went off as the favorite in the Florida Derby where he ran a second that's better than it looks - there was no pace in the race, the track had a fluky bias, and he was collared in the final furlongs.  But it was also his first race off a by-design two month layoff, as his trainer decided to give him a breather before the Triple Crown and the prep race.  We think that was a good move and he jumps back into triple GSF territory again, which puts him near the top of this group.  Even better - he's 15-1 on the morning line, and we think he'll drift up to even a higher price as people focus on his last race and relatively unknown trainer and jockey.  That would be a mistake - this is a good horse in good hands.

The Pick

1.  Orb.  We know, a complete shock given Wednesday's post.  But putting aside our infatuation with Shug McGaughey, we simply think he's the best horse in the group.  His move in the Fountain of Youth to propel him from the back of the pack to second at the top of the stretch reminded us of Monarchos' huge move in the 2001 Florida Derby, which he replicated in winning the Kentucky Derby.  Orb's Florida Derby showed a new level of versatility as he sat close to the non-existent pace and pounced when they came to the stretch.  We think he'll be in a good spot in this race - maybe 5-7 lengths off a moderate pace - and in prime position to take over and hold off the closers down the stretch.  And give Mr. McGaughey his first Derby win, at long last.

How to Play the Race

Orb is currently 7-2 on the morning line, and we think he's going to be longer than that: closer to 9-2/5-1.  At those odds, just bet him to win, as there's nothing wrong with quadrupling your money.  And the same holds true for most of the other horses: we don't think too many will be single digit odds.  If you're looking to make a bit more than that, take a peek at the multi-race bets.  Wise Dan and Point of Entry tower over the field in the Woodford Reserve in the prior race, and doubles with them should be okay, especially if you're able to pick between the two.  (We can't.)  If you're interested in a Pick Three, check out closers Hierro, Pass the Dice and Unbridled's Note in the CD Handicap, a race that's loaded with speed.  And to make it official, the picks:

1st: Orb
2nd: Itsmyluckyday
3rd: Normandy Invasion
4th: Black Onyx

Good luck to all and enjoy the Derby!

UPDATE: Black Onyx has scratched, so move Palace Malice into the 4th slot.

2013 Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The Bottom Tier

They've drawn the field, assigned post positions, make a morning line, and the field is set for the Kentucky Derby.  (Mostly - there's an also-eligible that we're ignoring.)  Let's jump right into this year's preview; as always, we're looking at the race under the assumption that it's being run over a fast track.

It's Been Real, It's Been Fun, But It Hasn't Been Real Fun.

20.  Giant Finish.  The first time we heard of this horse was when we checked the Racing Form's page Wednesday morning and saw that he had been entered from the Derby.  The second time we'll hear of him is when he's announced by Larry Collmus entering the far turn at the Derby.  The third time will be when he tries to rebound from his horrific Derby showing to compete in the Mike Lee Stakes.

19.  Golden Soul. A stone closer with a turf pedigree that's never run fast.  In the chart for the Louisiana Derby, where he finished a non-threatening 4th at 30-1, the commentary indicates that at various times he was carried 5- 7- and 8-wide, losing approximately 5000 yards of ground, and this happened while he had Calvin "Bo-Rail" in the irons.  That type of running style in a race with little early speed and a lesser jockey does not bode well for Saturday.

18.  Charming Kitten.  The only reason to back this horse is because he's trained by Todd Pletcher, but he's clearly the 5th worst of Pletcher's 5 entrants.  Like Golden Soul, he's also bred for the turf, but has even less success on the dirt, and appears to be a vanity entry made for the amusement of owner Ken Ramsey. 

17.  Falling Sky.  If you were curious about which horses are going to provide the pace in this race, here's your first answer.  Based on his last two starts, there's no indication he wants to run a foot beyond 9 furlongs, so the 10th furlong of the Derby should be problematic. 

16.  Frac Daddy.  Every year there's a Derby entrant that had a good ordinal finish in his prior race that earned him the right to enter the race, but completely belies his actual chances of winning the race.  Prior to his second place finish in a sloooooow Arkansas Derby, Frac Daddy finished a horrible 7th in the Florida Derby and a non-threatening 6th in the Holy Bull.  His second in the Arkansas Derby was pretty clearly by default after favorite War Academy pulled up lame and every other horse in the race was terrible.  So while his entry isn't offensive, the fact that he ran second in his last start is of little consequence.

We Find Your Resumes Lacking

15.  Line of Battle.  The 5 winners of the UAE Derby that have tried the Kentucky Derby have never finished better than 6th (China Visit, 2000) and have rarely been a pace factor.  The first horse that exits the UAE Derby and finishes in the money will come at our expense.  We're not exactly nervous here.

14.  Oxbow.  If you're unsure what's going to be the focus of NBC's soft-focus pre-race stories, we're pretty sure that jockey Gary Stevens' comeback from a long retirement to ride this guy in the Derby will be one of the stories.  Regrettably, Stevens has not picked a particularly fast horse to ride in Louisville, as Oxbow's speed figures first stagnated this winter, then declined in the Arkansas Derby.  We actually like his breeding a lot and would love to see trainer D. Wayne Lukas back in the Triple Crown picture, but we think the only way this guy wins is if he gets to set very slow fractions early in the race and can put the other 19 to sleep.  Unlikely.

13.  Mylute.  We're not exactly sure what this horse is.  In the Risen Star, he was close to the pace and faded badly.  In the Louisiana Derby, he settled well behind the rest of the field and closed decently to finish second in an oddly run race (several that finished behind him had horrendous traffic trouble).  What we can guarantee is that he'll be overbet simply because Rosie Napravnek is riding him.   While Rosie's an excellent jockey, she'll be hard-pressed to get this sprint-bred colt into contention deploying either running style, and since he'll be 15-1 or so, this guy will not be a bargain.

12.  Vyjack.  We think the line between pretender and possibility falls here. This is actually a fairly talented horse that was undefeated going into the Wood Memorial where he finished third behind Verrazano and Normandy Invasion.  While some are touting him as a sleeper, we see three big problems. First, both Normandy Invasion and Verrazano are in the Derby as well, and there's no reason to think they'll run worse than they did in the Wood or that Vyjack's trip was compromised.  Second, his breeding does not indicate 10 furlongs is his bailiwick - his sire's success came at under a mile and he was from a sprinter's family, while his dam is out of turf sprinter Stravinsky.  Third, his trainer, Rudy Rodriguez, has been in enough trouble with racing authorities that his stables are under 24/7 surveillance to make sure there are no shenanigans.  We're not saying that this horse's success are the product of Rodriguez's alchemy, but we don't love the horse being subjected to such an enormous disruption in his routine.  We see a back of the pack finish followed by some time off and a successful return to the races at shorter distances.

11.  Will Take Charge. There are some things to like about this horse: his breeding is quite good (Unbridled's Song out of Grade 1 winner Take Charge Lady, who was the dam of last year's Florida Derby winner, Take Charge Indy), and two good efforts this year on a fast track.  What we don't love is that Lukas decided to pass on the most recent round of prep races and train this horse up to the Derby off an 8-week layoff.  Not only has that been a path to failure, it's completely antithetical to Lukas' modus operandi, which is to run horses early and often.  We're guessing that there are some fitness or health issues with this horse and think the lack of recency leaves him well short of a top effort on Saturday.

Coming up on Friday morning: the top half and our Derby pick.

2013 Kentucky Derby Preview Part I: In Praise of Shug McGaughey

Ask most casual horse racing fans who they think is the best trainer and you'll most likely get Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert in response.  We couldn't really argue with either of those selections.  Pletcher has won the trainer Eclipse award five times, has been the leading money trainer by money earned six times, and has won 40 training titles at premier meets up and down the East Coast.  He's also won two Triple Crown races, 7 Breeders Cup races, and approximately 6,000 graded stakes race.  Baffert has been equally impressive, winning 9 Triple Crown races, 7 Breeders Cup races, and a slew of other Grade 1 races while taking home 4 Eclipse Awards for best trainer.

A slightly less conventional but equally good answer would be any of Bill Mott, Dale Romans or Steve Asmussen.  Mott hasn't been that big a player in the Triple Crown (Drosselmeyer in 2010 was his only win) but has 8 Breeders Cup races to his name and won the training title at Saratoga 9 times.  Everyone knows that Mott can win with pretty much any type of horse on any surface.  Romans has been a little more of a recent revelation but his work with "underdog" horses like Shackleford and Tapitsfly lead him to last year's Eclipse title.  Asmusssen trained two of the best horses from the last decade (Curlin, Rachel Alexandra), won the most races in America 6 straight years, and has a pair of Eclipse Awards to his name.

You couldn't go wrong with any of these five men as your trainer.  But if we could pick anyone active to train our horse, without a question, we'd take Shug McGaughey.  Shug's work is a little less known to those who aren't hardcore racing fans, but the Kentuckyian is one of the most respected trainers in America.  He was elected to the racing Hall of Fame in 2004, having trained:

• Personal Ensign, who went 14-for-14 and was on everyone's shortlist of greatest older females until Zenyatta came along;
• Easy Goer, who we'll discuss more below, but is a Hall of Fame 3 year old.;
• Lure, the winner of two consecutive Breeders Cup Miles;
• My Flag, the daughter of Personal Ensign, who won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, three over Grade 1s, and finished in the money in the Belmont;
• Storm Flag Flying, the daughter of My Flag who also won the BC Juvenile Fillies, making it three generations of BC winners;
• Inside Information, who won the Breeders Cup Distaff over her highly accomplished stablemate Heavenly Prize by a dozen lengths;
• Breeders Cup winners Dancing Spree and Pleasant Home; and
• Several dozen Grade 1 races with horses whose names have largely been forgotten, such as Pine Island, Versailles Treaty, Glitter Woman, Finder's Fee, Strolling Along, Good Reward and Aldiza.

The best day of Shug's career was undoubtedly October 16, 1993, which was dubbed Super Shug Day by most Belmont denizens.  Belmont Park held its "Breeders Cup Preview" day with six races directly tied to Breeders Cup races to come in a few weeks.  Shug won five of them, as Heavenly Prize and Dispute dominated the filly races, Lure won the mile turf race, Strolling Along won the 3yo turf race, and Miner's Mark pulled off an upset in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  When Richard Mandella won 4 Breeders Cup races on a single day in 2003, Super Shug Day was what most people compared it to.

There has been very little that McGaughey has done wrong.  His horses are never rushed, they're rarely spotted poorly, and always have good, classical breeding.  On top of that, we can speak from personal experience that he's an absolutely wonderful guy on a personal level - he has never hesitated to stop to talk about racing or Kentucky basketball with anyone and knows that fans and bettors are the fulcrum of the sport.

*          *          *

There are two big reasons why Shug isn't well-known to the general public.  The first is that he essentially trains for two owners: the Phipps family and Stuart Janney (of Bessemer Trust fame).  Both are classic old-school owners that eschew auctions and publicity.  They're throwbacks to the days of the Vanderbilts and Calmuet Farms dominating racing, and they keep their lineage alive by keeping their mares, breeding them to blue-blooded stallions, not selling off their progeny, and only letting their horses run when they're ready.  You will not see Stuart Janney or Dinny Phipps holding a circus press conference like IEAH Stables or Jess Jackson, or having a vanity entry in the Kentucky Derby.  It's just not their style.

The second reason is that Shug has been extremely quiet on the Triple Crown trail, as much of his success in the last 20 years has come with females and older males. He's run six horses in the Kentucky Derby, and only one since 1989 - the extremely disappointing Saarland, who ran a lackluster 10th.  He hasn't had a memorable moment or entrant in the Preakness since 1989.  His only runner of note in the Belmont was My Flag's quasi-historic 3rd in 1995 - which is now 18 years ago.

Shug's biggest moment in the Triple Crown came in 1989 when he brought Super Horse Easy Goer to the Derby.  Easy Goer's greatness was obvious - he was the champion 2 year old colt, won the Wood, and was a gorgeous animal.  Unfortunately, Easy Goer picked a tough year to compete and lost the Derby and Preakness to nemesis Sunday Silence, the latter producing arguably the greatest race of the last 30 years:
 

Easy Goer gained revenge in the Belmont winning by 5 lengths and running the second-fastest time ever behind Secretariat, then followed up with wins in the Whitney, Travers, Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup - a feat that has never been matched and will almost certainly never be tried, as the 4 races are in a span of less than 10 weeks.  He went to the Breeders Cup Classic to try for Horse of the Year...only to fall a length shy of Sunday Silence once again.

Sbug's other great opportunity for Triple Crown glory came in 1998 with Coronado's Quest, and while most people have forgotten about this horse, we'd bet that private Shug considers him the Great Horse that got away  After dominating the Aqueduct 2yo circuit by winning 3 stakes races, Coronado's Quest shipped to Florida with a ton of hype as the alternative to reigning Horse of the Year Favorite Trick.  While showing an immense amount of talent, he also showed a ton of immaturity, as he was impossible to handle during pre-race warmups, and couldn't be easily saddled before some races.  He tried the Florida prep circuit but his temperament lead him to become an uncontrollable speedball, at which point Shug essentially gave up on trying to get the horse in front of 160,000 people at Louisville and changed course to prestigious but not Triple Crown races.  What then followed was a stellar 5-race winning streak in the Wood, Riva Ridge, Dwyer, Haskell and Travers, where he beat every 3yo of note (except Real Quiet, who didn't race again after the Belmont).  He ended his career on something of a down note - a 5th place finish in the Breeders Cup Classic, after leading the entire way and meeting one of the best fields ever assembled, and a loss in the Cigar Mile when he was over the top.  But nobody ever doubted that this horse was talented and had the ability to stay a distance.  Had the horse's head been screwed on straight in early May, we're convinced he would have won the Derby and Real Quiet's name would be lost to trivia.

*          *          * 

As amazing as Super Shug Day was, Saturday stands the chance to be the best day of McGaughey's career.  After running his talented mare Hungry Island in the Distaff Mile, in the race before the Derby, the Woodford Reserve, a 1 1/8 mile race on the turf, Point of Entry is going for his second win of the year, having beaten Derby and Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom in his last.  Point of Entry was one of the best horses to train last year, having won 4 straight Grade 1's on the turf only to fall short in the BC Turf mainly because of a horrible ride.  The Woodford looked like a walkover for Point of Entry until Monday, when Charles LoPresti announced that 2012 Horse of the Year Wise Dan would be running as well.  With all due respect to the Derby, this is the matchup that most racing fans have wanted to see, as these are the two best horses in training in America.  It's a fascinating race from many angles - it's a little longer than most of Wise Dan's successes, it's shorter than Point of Entry likes - but if POE knocks off Wise Dan, he immediately goes to the front of the line for 2013 Horse of the Year honors.  We honestly think the race is pretty much a 50/50 proposition between the two horses and can't wait to see them square off.

Then comes the Derby, where Shug has entered Orb.  As we've noted, this is the first runner he's had in the Derby in 11 years, and unlike Saarland, he has a big shot.  After taking 4 starts to break his maiden, he won a nice optional claiming race at Gulfstream, and was advanced into the Fountain of Youth.  There, he sat well off a hot pace and closed like a rocket on the far turn and got by 3-5 favorite Violence in the stretch to win.  He then returned in the Florida Derby against favored Itsmyluckyday - who had looked dominant at Gulfstream to date - and Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby.  This time, Orb sat fairly close to a moderate pace and took over in the final yards to win by almost 3 lengths.  While not a fast time against the clock, it was a slow-paced race and his stretch run left little doubt that he would relish 10 furlongs.  And it showed great versatility, as proved to be a horse that didn't need to close from the back of the pack to win.

While we're going to analyze the Derby field as objectively as possible over the next two days, we will admit here and now that we're rooting for Shug.  A Derby win would be the career validation that one of the nicest guys in racing deserves.  And a welcome tonic to a lot of the bad press that racing has received over the last couple of years.  If Orb comes through, one of the good guys and greatest trainers in the sport won the big race.  It would truly be something to celebrate.

2013 Season Preview: The Predictatron

Once again we asked everyone for their predictions for the 2013 season and compiled them into a spreadsheet that shot out the aggregate predictions.  The overall results weren't a shock, but what was a little surprising was the variance in a lot of these picks.  Only two things were close to unanimous: the defending champions are going to be really good and my co-author will be patently mediocre.  Bold predictions indeed.  Let's take a peek at what we all thought before the games started.  (El Angelo)

"Patent mediocrity" is actually a fantastic team name. Hmm. Might have to sub that one in at the All-Star break. (Teddy)

12.  Beltway Bulldogs, nee Spreading Santorum (11 pts)

Based on the number of points tallied, the only thing less likely than this team winning is us holding the 2014 draft at the owner's former boss' new library.  In fact, I will propose that: if Will wins, the draft should be held there.  Gauntlet, thrown.  (El Angelo)

See, if this team was projected for a better finish, I'd make a joke about how the only thing more oxymoronic than a George W. Bush library would be a Manute Bol jockey school. But that would be too harsh here. (Teddy)

11.  string cheese tibias (26 pts)

At press time, injuries and drafting have produced an infield that contains Marco Scutaro, Jose Altuve and Alcides Escobar.  Defensively, they're among the best teams in the league.  (El Angelo)

I checked out this team's page to see which of those three guys was a backup. They're all starting. So, yeah. (Teddy)

10.  Wu Tang Financial (30 pts)

I actually don't think this team is horrible, but the problem is there are very few teams that are truly poor this year, meaning that some squad with fair talent is going to wind up near the bottom.  These guys look like prime contenders for that, er, honors.  (El Angelo)

In past years, mediocre teams with conservative owners would clunk up in the standings as more aggresive owners completed their tear-downs. The new draft order rules this year change the incentive to sell, so it's more likely that teams that start iffy will end iffy. (Teddy)

9.  Le Dupont Torkies (36 pts)

This squad has been in first place pretty much since the second day of the season, so clearly, we all know what we're talking about.  (El Angelo)

The main reason to doubt this team was age and its attendant injury risk. If they stay healthy all year, they'll finish better than this easily. (Teddy)

8.  The Spam Avengers (49 pts, 1 first place vote)

Of the eight votes, the one who has this team winning it all is the only one that has them finishing in the top four.  As I hinted in my preview, I think this is a team ripe to sell-off some +many guys, but query whether the new draft ordering is going to make the trade deadline pretty quiet for teams that would normally trade off "veterans" to build for next year.  (El Angelo)

Yeah, like I said above, I think the "first or last" projections we've seen in past years might be not be applicable this year. (Teddy)

7.  Dickey Centre (57 pts)

We may have to reconsider this ranking if Matt Harvey continues to emulate Dwight Gooden's 1985, because with him, Harper, Verlander and Heyward, when healthy, that's a sick core.  (El Angelo)

I've predicted this team to outperform its consensus for a a few years running now--this might be the year they finally prove me right. (Teddy)

6.  Boston Fah Qs, nee Brooklyn Tweedbeards (60 pts)

Every single prediction had this team below the top two and out of the bottom four.  That seems about right: low ceiling, high floor.  Huzzah.  (El Angelo)

This does feel like a consolidation year after last year's silver. (Teddy)

5.  The Kuroda Zone, nee Corey Loves Dickey (64 pts)

Much like their beloved Cardinals, they'll go exactly as far as their monster hitting will take them.  Fortunately, they don't have Mike Matheny to worry about in the process.  (El Angelo)

Thank Christ we got rid of the other Dickey name, as we now have a realistic chance at not cross-identifying guys in the TAs. (Teddy)

4.  Paging Dr. Rumack (65 pts)

The voters predicted this team would finish in 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th and 9th.  This puts them at the median, I suppose.  (El Angelo)

So like me but, you know, good. (Teddy)

3.  Ancient Alien Attack (67 pts, 2 first place votes)

By contrast to Andrew's squad, which people have finishing up and down the ladder, 5 of the 8 votes have my team finishing in the money while three others have me in 9th or 10th.  The fact that I perpetually lose probably didn't help my cause.  (El Angelo)

Again I bet those low predictions assume that you'll execute Operation Shutdown again if it comes to it. But I have a hard time seeing this team finishing in the second division. (Teddy)

2.  Jeters Never Prosper (77 pts)

The only team where nobody had a "bad" prediction - their worst tally was a 6th place vote, and five people had them finishing in the money.  Even the defending champ couldn't top that - someone picked Scot to finish in next to last.  (El Angelo)

I had them in the money as well, so can't really argue with this. (Teddy)

1.  The Braun Advantage (82 pts, 5 first place votes) 

I will say this: the guy who picked them to finish in 11th will be asked to write all my future horse racing columns if that prediction comes true.  (El Angelo)

Hey, as of today, they're in 10th. Of course, as of today BJ Upton's OBP is below .200, and that can't last either. (Can it? Oh, God, can it?) (Teddy)

2013 Season Preview: The Braun Advantage

Okay, so this post is about 2 1/2 weeks late, which we can attribute to fatherhood, recluses, spring weather, and some post-draft fatigue from writing these previews. But better late than never, right?

Because everyone knows this team is pretty good, we long ago decided to eschew a conventional preview because the only real question was whether they were ridiculously good, very good, or maybe had a shot at finishing out of the money.  Originally we were going to do an analysis of which members of the defending champions were using the cream and the clear, but that became dull fast and sort of moot since the Ryan Braun witch hunt seems to have slowed.  So let's instead take an approach that honors the late Roger Ebert: 7 thumbs up and 7 thumbs down for the PEDbots.

Thumbs Up

1.  Mike Trout with a 25% regression off last year would probably be the AL MVP this year, in production if not in name.

2.  FOUR players on this team had more home runs in 2012 than Trout: Edwin Encarnacion (42), Adam Dunn (41), Adrian Beltre (36) and Andrew McCutchen (31).

3.  It's rare that you can have on your team players that lead both the NL and AL in the same category, but in Trout and Evereth Cabrera, this team is pretty locked in on steals.

4.  There are a lot of fun mix-and-match parts in the outfield.  Coco Crisp gives you no power but a bunch of steals; Brandon Moss gives you no speed but solid power, and Norichiki Aoki gives you solid production across the board.  Matched against the right pitching, these three guys should play quite well along McCutchen and Trout.

5.  They have two guys named Ellis that ply their trade in Los Angeles and neither negotiates million dollar deals for breakfast.

6.  I'm not sure I would want a bullpen of Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera in 2 years, but for this season, they're a pretty likely source of 60-70 saves, which is fairly heady given the current state of closers.

7.  This owner is the most successful in the league other than Tucker.  If there's a hole to fill in July, we would be shocked if he didn't properly address it.

Thumbs Down

1.  If you're wondering why I didn't discuss starting pitching yet, that's because this isn't a strength.  Their best pitcher is Zack Greinke, who's out with a fighting injury for a while.  Jordan Zimmerman is perfectly fine as a #2, but after that it gets to a lot of ex-Marlins (AJ Burnett, Josh Beckett) and a Met (Dillon Gee).  If they really think that Lance Lynn is going to win 18 games again, Andy will gladly give the owner Kent Bottenfield's phone number to discuss his fluke season and his Christian music albums.

2.  The injury bug hasn't hit this team hard, it's pummeled them in the early stages.  Greinke, Hanley Ramirez, Jason Motte, Colby Lewis...that's a lot of quality on a mend.

3.  Their hitting isn't optimally aligned.  Ramirez will eventually come back from the DL but won't play third over Beltre, and probably won't push Cabrera's 40 steals to the bench.  That puts him at DH, which means none of Aoki/Crisp/Moss will play since Adam Dunn is taking that 3rd OF spot.  Depth is good, but with weak hitters at catcher and second, it may not matter here.  

4.  Carlos Marmol appears to be actively involved.

5.  Joaquin Benoit appears to be remotely involved.

6.  Travis Wood appears to be rostered.

7.  Most of the power hitters we discussed above are prime candidates for regression.  Is there a single person that thinks that E-5 is going to hit over 40 home runs again?  Adam Dunn has a .184 batting average over the last two years.  And the Moss/Crisp/Aoki triumverate have Plexiglass Principle stamped across their respective foreheads.


Conclusion

As you can tell, we struggled to cobble together a real criticism of this team besides their starting pitching.  They're going to hit, they're going to steal bases, they'll accumulate saves and they'll try to trade into another starter come summertime.  The clear favorite to repeat, but the pitching is dicey enough that they're not the monolith we thought they might be in November.

Season Preview: Paging Dr. Rumack

Look, I'm not going to lie to you: this preview isn't going to be very good. As you can probably tell by re-reading past years' final previews, the process tends to break down around preview #10 or so. I've been trying to think of a theme along the lines of "Songs of the '90s" or even the "Prophets" theme I broke out earlier this year. So far, all I've come up with is "Fantasy Baseball Team Preview." So, yeah.

That's too bad on several fronts, because this owner and this team deserve serious attention. They hit the board last year without making any major win-now trades, and a disconcertingly large percentage of their roster was cheap to keep.  Logically, then, they have to be considered threats to hit the board again this season.

Infield

To my mind, this is the toughest area to predict for this team. They're all set at catcher with Buster Posey, and have assembled three reasonable power/whiff darts to throw at 3B in the form of Will Middlebrooks, Brett Lawrie, and Trevor Plouffe. But there are questions in the other slots.

Jimmy Rollins is only 34, but it feels like he's 106, and he plays on what is looking like a death ship of a team in Philly. Early results have indictaed that he hasn't lost his speed, which means that he should still hold fantasy value if healthy. Those last two words give us, pause, though. And 1B Billy Butler magically converted 10 or so doubles into HRs last year; we are slightly suspicious that he will repeat. Justin Morneau provides some cover for Butler, but he's also plugged in at DH now, so he's not really in a position to back Butler up.

Finally, there's the one-man show at 2B. Single-word summaries of Aaron Hill's past four years would go something like this: terrible, terrible, hurt, unstoppablesharkbear (I've translated from the original single-word German  on that last one). Probabilty would thus seem to dictate that this year is less than likely to culminate with more sharkbearing, although he's off to a great start.
 
The thing is that despite all of these qualms, this IF would produce really solid aggregate totals based on last year's numbers. So while you can poke holes in a number of the individuals, it still feels like the collective performance should work.

Outfield

Just so many dudes. Desmond Jennings, Jay Bruce, and Adam Jones are starting now, but Smooth Dexter Fowler, Drew Stubbs, and (starting in May) Curtis Granderson give the team an entire backup OF. I will be perfectly honest and admit that I have no idea which three of those six guys will give the best collective performance this year. But the presence of so many reasonable options means that it's tough to see this unit tanking.

Starting Pitching

Last year's solid staff returns stalwarts Felix Hernandez and Matt Cain, so the team was off to a good start before drafting anybody this year. The team supplemented those two aceswith an early-round investment in Jon Lester, whose performance in the early going is a great sign for the Fightin' Neilsens. Kuroda Zone vets CJ Wilson, Clay Buchholz and, yes, Hiroki Kuroda, round out the rotation.

it's worth noting that all of these guys, even the ones who don't really make your hair stand on end, are durable. Only Buchholz has missed signficant time to injury in the past three seasons; the others have made at least 30 starts each year during that time. So even if none of the Kuroda Zone folks make a leap up to join the aces, they should allow the team to avoid wading through the waiver pool for innings.

Bullpen

If the rotation is dependent in part on avoiding injuries, the bullpen is dependent on injuries befalling a bunch of incumbent closers throughout baseball. Only Brandon League is a current closer, and nobody seems to think that he's LA's best reliever. Behind League there are a bunch of setup men, including David Robertson, Greg Lukerson, and Aaron Crooooooooow!, each of whom will need to hear the sweet snap of a teammate's ulnar collateral ligament before providing saves. There's help for the rate stats here, but the team enters the season staring at 2-3 SV points unless things break their way.

Outlook

This is one of those teams about which my eyes and my spreadsheets differ. I think the team has a lot of flexibility, enough to overcome the likely cratering of at least one infielder. The projections I've seen don't really like the roster, though. Still, this feels like a first-division, who is some bullpen luck away from making a run at the board.

Season Preview: Wu Tang Financial

I am not a camper. To me, abandoning the comforts of modern life seems somehow disrespectful to the generations who came before, all of whom were trying like hell to avoid having to sleep in wet woods or cold mountaintops.

However, there is one aspect of camping that appeals to me: tents. Tents are lego sets for grownups. It's fun to take a bunch of disassembled pieces and create a orderly structure out of them. Just don't ask me to sleep in the structures afterward--the things are more suited to use as cat toys or toddler distractions.

I surely hope that Wu Tang Financial's long-suffering owner feels the same way about tent construction. Because right now the team has a handful of sturdy tentpoles, and some indeterminate amount of other parts, but it's not clear whether they all fit together to make anything other than the sad puddle of nylon above.

Infield

Home to load-bearing element number one, in the person of Albert Pujols. Yes, he has probable lost a step. But he is still one of the more ridiculous hitters out there, and has been an effective player through the first week of the season despite batting only .213. The other elements are particularly puddly, though. Catcher Jesus Montero hasn't turned the corner yet, Kyle Seager is an unexciting 3B option playing for a bad Seattle team, and SS Erick Aybar has been discussed at some withering length in past posts. Brandon Phillips might be on pace for a strong year at 2B, though, given what appears to be a dominant offense in Cincinnati. Still, at best WTF is looking at above-fantasy-average production from at most 2 of his IF slots. Either Montero needs to get better, or WTF needs to find better options on the left side of the IF.

Outfield

Another structural element in the fairly massive form of Gianmikeo Stanton. However, the early season results ahve injected a bit of doubt about how many chances Stanton will have to affect the league this year while batting cleanup for the Havana Sugar Kings. Weirdly, Yahoo! may have put it best today:

Stanton ended the night with a .174 average that rated as the lowest in the Marlins lineup. After seven games, he's yet to drive in a run, and he has an 11/7 K/BB in 23 official at-bats. Maybe he wouldn't be doing any better if he played for a major league team, but his owners are right to be concerned about his situation.

Now, Stanton's walking a ton, so his OBP is still over .360. But that's a mixed blessing, because it further shows that pitchers aren't giving him anything to hit. The rest of the OF is stocked with pleasant nonentities like Hunter Pence, Jason Kubel, and a now officially old Carlos Beltran. That said, there's enough depth here to avoid the holes we saw in the IF. This group really does all come down to how Stanton adjusts to the nightly Barry Bonds treatment.

Starting Pitching

Continuing with the theme, the tentpole here is Stephen Strassburg, who, despite a shaky start last time out, is unquestionably a front-line starter. Behind him is a surprisingly deep array of fantasy # 2 types in James Shields, Jake Peavy, and AJ Griffin, as well as intriguing wild cards in Julio Teheran and whatever's left of Tim Lincecum. Strassburg is the only guy who inspires absolute confidence (or at least confidence as absolute as possible when dealing with pitchers), as you can make plausible cases for each of the other guys cratering this year. But the sheer number of reasonable # 2 options means that the team should be able to cobble together a rotation.

Bullpen

Looked thin on paper after the draft, with only Jason Grilli and John Axford in line for saves, and only looks thinner now that Axford might be the second NL Central closer to lose his job before Tax Day. Koji Uehara has looked useful in middle relief for Boston, but he's third in line for saves there, so he projects as a rate-stat-only guy. Not a board-quality group at present.

Outlook

As we've seen, there are building-block players everywhere except the bullpen, so if WTF can beg, borrow, or steal enough helpful supporting performances, there's a chance the team will compete. That said, we think that the holes in the IF and pen will keep this team out of the race.

Season Preview: string cheese tibias

Last year was supposed to be the coup de grace for the broken Caps Lock Keys: strong offseason acquisitions like Albert Pujols gave them an offense to be reckoned with to match a good top of the rotation.  It had been a long time coming but we all felt that Sahil had finally built a team that should contend for the title, and he was predicted to finish in third as a result.  Huzzahs were given out and we all just waited for him to cruise to a medal finish.

Then Albert Pujols started off his California career 1-for-100, CC Sabathia had a bad April, Jose Bautista finally suffered a decline and an injury, and the next thing we knew, the Healer was down for the count.  He now enters 2013 with markedly less hype, having only one pick in the first three rounds and using it on a closer.  But has he turned into the new Will, succeeding when everyone thinks he'll fail?  Or is he just back to the same old Ironhead? 

Infield

How much you like this infield is how much you think that 2012 represents what players will do in 2013.  Four-fifths of the starting roster - A.J. Rosenpenis, Adam LaRoche, Jose Altuve and Alcides Escobar - put up stats infinitely better than any prior season, with the first two combining for 60 home runs with no speed; the latter two combining for 68 steals with no power.  If they all repeat their 2012 performances, them plus a possibly rejuvenated Ryan Zimmerman could yield a very nice infield.  The problem is that there isn't a single person on earth who thinks this will happen; while Altuve and Escobar are young enough that they could maintain last year's running frenzy, Rosenpenis' and LaRoche's year scream fluke.  Bench player Marco Scutaro is more of the same.

The saving grace is that there's a ton of depth here and beyond Scutaro, it's mostly guys with upside.  Eric Hosmer is still a lot of talk and little production, but he's still in his early 20s and is a popular breakout pick.  Neil Walker is very useful at second base; him and Altuve, spotted correctly, could actually produce above-average stats for the position. Russell Martin is also not a horrible idea; yes, his stats were not exactly great last year, but the NL shift plus playing the positively shitty rotations littered around the NL Central should help. 

Outfield

Continuing the fluke theme, last year Joshes Willingham and Reddick combined for SIXTY-SEVEN home runs.  Now we understand that this team has had a good offense because it picked up a guy who looked like the greatest fluke of all (Jose Bautista) at the right time and has ridden him to approximately 200 home runs.  So it's possible he's acquired a boatload of guys who are all peaking at exactly the right time and threaten to make a fantasy version of the '27 Yankees.  But we're more than a little skeptical.  Willingham is 34 years old and last year was the only time he topped 30 dingers.  Reddick is at least young, but only hit 12 out of the park after the '12 ASB.  It's more probable that he just had the greatest two months of his life than he turned into George Baruth.

The other two slots are manned by Bautista and Josh Hamilton, who are two of the ten best fantasy hitters in baseball.  So if there's even just middling production from the other two slots, this should be one of the better outfields in baseball.  But color me skeptical that they'll get another epic season from the Joshes.

Starting Pitching

What looks okay on paper could get ugly quick.  CC Sabathia has already started the season with decreased velocity and coming off arm surgery, while Madison Bumgarner finished 2012 with basically a dead arm.  If both don't rebound this is going to be a titanic liability, because it falls off really quickly.  Matt Harrison managed to have a very good '12 without actually having good fantasy stats and is an inning eater at best.  Ditto for Wade Miley.  Alex Cobb is the worst pitcher on the Rays.  And Mike Pelfrey is possibly the worst pitcher in baseball.  So yeah, some arms or rebounds are needed here.

Relief Pitching

Chapman and Jonathan Broxton lock up the Cincinnati closer role and Grant Balfour is Oakland's fireman, so there's some value here.  The X-factor is whether Frank Francisco can (a) reclaim, and (b) then keep the Mets closer job, without (c) annihilating the rest of this team's stats.  Still, relief pitching is so cromulent this year that this appears to be an average-at-worst pen.

Outlook

This squad is clearly a notch below the top contenders - their starters aren't strong enough to carry K's and W's, and they're a bit reliant on guys who are older and off of peak years.  But that sad, this is far from a BAD team, and is one that should rack up a ton of points on offense and some saves.  A 6th place finish is hardly out of the question.  A trip to the medal stand?  That might be too much to ask.