Last year we set a new nadir for stubbornness and stupidity by not only completely tossing Justify -who only went on to win the Triple Crown - but for also picking Mendelssohn, who shipped in from Dubai via Ireland to break slowly and finish DAFL. It was not our finest hour. But we stand by that analysis. We went against Justify because he was bucking a slew of historical rules and was the favorite. We acknowledged he could win, but he's exactly the type of horse we'll pick against every time because there's no parimutuel value in picking him, and because we still think the rules have some applicability (perhaps now they're more "guidelines" than rules). We have adhered to that ethos for over a decade, and were right numerous other times before 2018 - Curlin, Verrazano, and Bodemeister were three examples of horses that looked talented, but had flaws in their profiles, and were going to be short prices, so we didn't pick them. Justify was the time we stuck to our guns and were wrong. It happens. All we can do is move on.
What's much more annoying about the Derby is that it's become too predictable. As we noted in 2017, the favorite used to be an easy toss; it's now an automatic play. The last time a favorite lost was in 2012 when I'll Have Another beat Bodemeister, and even then, the favorite ran second. We maintain this is in large part because the points system gets the hopeless speedballs out of the field and leads to a more formful race.
But that's only half of it: closers have also become pariahs. In fields that had sprinters carving out crazy opening fractions, the closers were always worth considering - think of Monarchos' last-to-first run in 2001, Street Sense in '07, Mine That Bird and Giacomo's crazy upsets, all of which were fueled by a breackneck pace. Now? The only closer that's won this decade was Orb in 2013, and even then, we had a horse (Palace Malice) freak on the lead because his trainer gave him blinkers for the first time in the Derby and cut quick fractions. Every other winner this decade has had good tactical speed and attended close to the pace, keeping the closers at bay in the stretch.
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| Friend of the blog, voice of the Triple Crown, and great guy, Larry Collmus |
Having said all that, let's look at the field for this year's Kentucky Derby. As we do every year, we'll count down the 20 entrants starting with the horses we think are the least likely to win to the most, ending with our pick and some betting advice. For each horse we'll also give you the morning line odds and what we think the "fair value" line is on the horse - that is, the price at which we think the horse becomes a reasonable play. Today we'll look at the bottom half of the field, which is not going to be laden with value plays. As usual, we're assuming the track at Churchill Downs is fast and fair, though as of press time, there is a chance of rain in the forecast.
Pass. Just Pass.
20. Bodexpress. (Morning Line: 30-1; Fair Value Line: 200-1). Originally an also-eligible, he only drew in because morning line favorite Omaha Beach scratched out on Wednesday evening with a trapped epiglottis. (Side note: Omaha Beach was our original pick, and we hated ourselves for taking the favorite. Problem solved!) He's still a maiden and is only in this race because he ran second in the Florida Derby at 78-1, giving him enough points to make the cut. Just because he can run in this race doesn't mean he should. We're also not sure why this guy isn't the longest shot on the board. And we're already regretful we've spent this many words talking about a no-hoper.
19. Master Fencer. (ML: 50-1; FVL: 200-1). Over the last couple of years, the Kentucky Derby has tried to make the race a little more international by holding slots open for the winners of certain prep races in Europe and Japan. This is largely a selfish goal - the more overseas horses that run in the Derby, the more people in those countries will bet on the race, which is certainly good for Churchill Downs' coffers. And hey, American racing could use more international exposure, right?
In any event, Europe isn't sending anyone this year, but Japan is taking up the invitation and sending over this fairly unaccomplished colt who finished 4th and 2nd in two lightly regarded stakes races in Japan, and has given no indication that he's fast enough to compete against America's top three year olds. (Japan had three horses eligible to run with more qualifying points; they all passed.) We're not against him running in the Derby over domestic horses because the horses that are left on the sidelines, frankly, stink: next on the points list is Signalman, who's run 3rd and 7th in his two starts this year; after him is Anothertwistafate, who should be disqualified simply for having such a horrible name. But just because we're fine with Master Fencer being in the race doesn't mean we think he has a chance given that he seems slow and is shipping 8,000 miles to run in a large field that runs in the opposite direction. We just hope that he stays out of everyone else's way, and doesn't add to the chaos of a 20-horse race.
Have Another Julep!
18. Country House. (ML: 30-1; FVL: 100-1) Bill Mott is one of the five best trainers of our lifetime, but the Triple Crown has never been his forte - his only win was Drosselmeyer's head-scratcher in the 2010 Belmont, and he's only run 8 horses in the Derby, none of which have been close to finishing in the money. Something seems to have rekindled his interest in the race recently though: after skipping the Derby for 9 years, Mott ran Hofburg last year, who did nothing, and this year he's got two horses as well. By far the lesser of the two is Country House, who has no tactical speed and hasn't won a single race of note, and drew the 20 post. There's a chance Mott wins his first Derby this year, but it would be a shocker if this plodder did it.
17. Spinoff. (ML: 30-1; FVL: 100-1) There are about half a dozen traditional Kentucky Derby preps, and part of handicapping the Derby is considering which of those preps were weak and strong, since it'll help you evaluate the quality of the horses exiting them. To us, this year's prep weakling was the Louisiana Derby, which proved nothing except that a series of horses ran counterclockwise in an oval in steamy Louisiana on March 23rd and somebody won. The 4-5 favorite (who we'll discuss later) had a trip from hell and was basically out of the race early on. This lead the race open to chaos, and chaos is what ensued. The slow Country House finished 4th; the marginally faster Spinoff finished 2nd.
16. Win Win Win. (ML: 12-1; FVL: 65-1) We're automatically against this horse for having a horrible name, but his accomplishments aren't doing much for us either. He was competitive in a bunch of races in Maryland, and won a 7 furlong race at Tampa. Once he began running around 2 turns and at longer distances against better company, he got slower. That doesn't augur well for a 10-furlong race around two turns at a major track.
14. Haikal. (ML: 30-1; FVL: 50-1) Your quintessential dead closer who won the Gotham when the race completely fell apart. Even with that, he could only muster 3rd place in the Wood Memorial even with a pace meltdown. Since we're not predicting a suicidal pace in this race, and there are other closers we think have more upside, we'll move on.
The Wrong Prep Winners
13. Plus Que Parfait. (ML: 30-1; FVL: 50-1) In his first two starts this year, he ran a non-threatening 5th in the Lecomte and a horrendous 13th in the Risen Star. Knowing this horse was overmatched in the States, his trainer wisely sent him to Dubai for the UAE Derby, where a purse of $2.5 million and inferior competition beckoned. That decision panned out well, as he won and has now banked nearly $1.6 million. Mind you, he was patently unimpressive in winning, as he had a perfect trip and held on for dear life in the final furlong against a horse with a much worse trip. That fattened his checkbook, but doesn't change that he's pretty evidently a cut below the others.
12. Cutting Humor. (ML: 30-1; FVL 50-1) This year's winner of the Sunland Derby, a race that has only produced two relevant runners in Kentucky Derby history. The first was 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird, who was 50-1, should have been 500-1, and from whom no historical trends should be drawn. The second was Firing Line, who trainer Simon Callaghan sent to the Sunland Derby because he wanted an easy prep race and to avoid behemoths American Pharoah and Dortmund. Everyone knew before the race that Firing Line was one of the 5 best horses in training, and he validated it by romping in the Sunland Derby and running 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. That's not who usually runs in the Sunland Derby, it's ordinarily Grade 3 horses looking for a check and an excuse to get Derby tickets. That pretty much exactly who Cutting Humor is.
11. By My Standards. (ML: 15-1; FVL: 40-1) Remember how we said the Louisiana Derby was basically a race won by default? Here's who won it. And we're calling B.S. on how high that last speed figure was.
10. Maximum Security. (ML: 8-1; FVL: 30-1) The Florida Derby winner is undefeated in four starts, has gotten faster with extra distance, and going to take a lot of money on Saturday. And we're squarely against him for a multitude of reasons. First, we don't love horses that have never shipped before. Given that he's undefeated there, we know he loves Gulfstream Park, but are just guessing if he likes literally any other racetrack on Earth. Second, we are unconvinced that this guy is anywhere near as good as his last two speed figures indicate. His penultimate win was in an allowance race at 7 furlongs against a bunch of nobodies. The Florida Derby fell into his lap as the other speed horse (Hidden Scroll) didn't go to the front, allowing Maximum Security to waltz through slow fractions and have plenty left for the stretch. That's not going to happen Saturday - we don't see a breakneck pace, but he's not getting a series of 24-second quarter-miles either.
Third, we're not on the Jason Servis bandwagon, who bizarrely, went from being a fairly anonymous trainer to the trainer with the highest winning percentage in America. But even that's mostly with lesser horses; the only two "good" horses in his barn are sprinter World of Trouble and this guy. We know anonymous trainers from minor tracks have proven us wrong in the past - heck, his brother John Servis won the Derby with Smarty Jones and has been on a milk carton since then. But Smarty Jones was a talented colt who peaked at the right time against a weak class. Maximum Security has two nice races to his credit, both of which are easy to wave off. We're expecting a regression from this horse on Saturday, followed by a long vacation.
Coming up tomorrow: Our Top 9, including our pick and wagering advice.
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