Take last year - we thought that was an excellent class. We couldn't have been more wrong. Justify was clearly excellent and Good Magic was fine. But he rest of the Derby crop was a big blah. The Travers was won by Catholic Boy, a turf horse that had some dirt ability. The Pennsylvania Derby was won by McKinzie who missed the entire Triple Crown. None of the 3 year olds did anything in the Breeders Cup or the Pegasus Cup. The 3rd place finisher in the Derby (Audible) has been outright bad since the Derby, 4th place finisher Instilled Regard looks like a turf horse, Bravazo and Hofburg haven't won a graded stakes race, and Vino Rosso has bombed trying Grade 1 races.
That said, we have a mental line of demarcation between the top 11 and bottom 9 horses in this year's field. We give all the horses we previewed yesterday almost no shot to win on Saturday except for Maximum Security, who we really don't like. And even among the top 9, we have a mental break at around #5 as to who can actually win the race. So you won't find us backing...
We Might Regret This
9. Improbable. (ML: 5-1; VL: 25-1) Every class of thoroughbreds has a horse or two that wow you in their debut or first two races, leave everyone wondering what the horse's ceiling is, and it turns out we've already seen it. This year's version is Improbable, who has the exact same connections as Justify (Bob Baffert trains, WinStar and China Horse Club own). He won his maiden race stylishly, followed by an impressive win ungraded stakes race on the Breeders Cup card, which more than a few people thought was the best performance by a 2 year old that weekend. Greatness was portended for Improbable by many, and since then he's been...fine. Just fine. He won the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, which was a nice win but only marginally faster than his prior win, and was against absolutely nobody who has turned out to be any good. This year he has a pair of second place finishes at Oaklawn Park, where he was caught at the wire in the Rebel, and couldn't get by winner Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby. More importantly, his speed figures have stagnated as the distances have gotten longer, which isn't a shock because he's out of rank sprinter City Zip. Some people think he's sitting on a big effort for his third start. We disagree - he looks like a miler who would relish a cutback to one turn and is going to get wildly overbet thanks to his connections.8. Game Winner. (ML: 9-2; VL: 15-1) Last year's 2-year old and Breeders Cup Juvenile champion has lost both of his races this year, but we're not particularly bothered by that because both losses were close seconds to horses that are very good. What has us more concerned is we're not sure he's anything more than a grinder who did well last year because he was precocious. This isn't a Baffert horse with great speed with the ability to rate like Silver Charm, Justify or American Pharoah, or quick acceleration like Real Quiet or Point Given. Game Winner is much more even-paced, and succeeds largely because he doesn't quit - he reminds us of Baffert's 2010 Preakness winner Looking at Lucky. Game Winner basically won the Juvenile last year because he got to longshot Knicks Go at the top of the stretch and maintained his pace while his opponent yielded. That worked against lesser horses. It also may work in longer races: he's exactly the kind of horse we'd like in the Belmont because he would keep cranking out 24.8 second fractions while the rest of the field is spinning its wheels. But this running style cost him both of his races this year: he didn't have a closing punch to get by Omaha Beach in the Rebel, and he had no extra gear to hold off the closer Roadster in the SA Derby
Longshots du Jour
7. War of Will. (ML 15-1; VL: 35-1) Remember how we crapped on the Louisiana Derby yesterday? Here's the beaten favorite from that race who ran a horrible 9th at 4-5. But there are reasons to look past that race: he broke horribly and stumbled shortly out of the gate, which put him much farther back and wider in the race. That's not War of Will's running style: he wants to be on or near the pace. If he breaks alertly on Saturday, expect to see him near the front prompting the pace, especially since he's drawn the rail and doesn't have much of a choice. He's going to be a nice price, and if the pace is soft, it wouldn't shock us if he hung around for a piece.
6. Gray Magician. (ML 50-1; VL: 25-1) The runner-up in the UAE Derby is an unlikely winner but is very live to outrun his odds and inflate the prices in exotic wagers. His US starts were just so-so, but he showed tactical speed and a closing kick in Dubai, and he's bred fine for the distance (his full brother won the Sham last year, a key early Derby prep). He's going to be a huge price on Saturday - we think there's a minor chance he's the longest shot on the board - and don't hesitate to use him underneath.
5. Code of Honor. (ML 12-1; VL: 12-1) One of the hardest horses in this race to get a handle on. When he's good, he's really good: he looked phenomenal winning his maiden, ran a great 2nd in the Champagne where he basically fell at the break, and won stylishly in the Fountain of Youth. On the other hand, he completely no-showed in his first start this year, and ran a fairly indifferent 3rd in the Florida Derby. As usual with a Shug McGaughey horse, he's completely bereft of early speed and is at the mercy of the pacesetters, which is part of why he didn't run well in the Florida Derby - it was basically a parade on the front end and he had nothing to close into. Sadly for Shug, we don't see a ton of speed in this race either. And yet, he's training well, and Shug has correctly noted that they've been overcoming obstacles at every turn - this guy was a late scratch in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year with an illness, and had training issues earlier this year too - but have had clear sailing for the last few weeks. He's not at all impossible in the win slot, and is a must use underneath in your exotics.4. Tacitus. (ML: 8-1; VL: 8-1) Bill Mott's second Derby entrant; unlike Country House, he is a prime contender. He's impeccably bred: his father is super sire Tapit and his mother is Close Hatches, who won a slew of Grade 1 races earlier this decade, and he should relish 10 furlongs. His two races this year were both impressive closing victories in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial, and he won the Wood was despite him having traffic trouble early on. Why we've ranked him fifth is we like a few others a little more, and we're skeptical that his dead-closing style is going to work in the Derby, as we don't see a ton of pace for him to close into. Like Code of Honor, he's a contender who may not fit the shape of the race.
3. Long Range Toddy. (ML: 30-1; VL: 8-1) If a complete bomb is going to win on Saturday, he's the one we like the most by far. There's no more tried-and-true handicapping angle than playing a horse that was well-regarded in his last race, ran badly on a sloppy track, and is now trying to rebound on a fast track. Handicappers in this scenario will often just say "throw out that last race in the slop." And if you do that here, you find a horse that beat Improbable fair and square in the Rebel, is bred nicely for 10 furlongs, has good tactical speed that should put him in the second flight of horses, and has excellent connections: all that's missing on trainer Steve Asmussen's career resume is a Derby win. That sixth place finish in his last race is a bit of an eyesore and Jon Court isn't our favorite jockey in the world, but don't ignore this horse on Saturday - he's very live at what's going to be a big price. (Note - based on his last race, if it's wet Saturday, which is looking very possible, downgrade his chances.)
The Pick
1. Vekoma. (ML: 15-1; VL: 5-1) The Blue Grass Stakes hasn't been a productive Derby prep in a while - while it's had some runners finish in the money (including Good Magic last year), the last Derby winner it produced was Street Sense a dozen years ago. But there are reasons to believe that this guy can buck the trend, as he's legitimately never run a bad race. He won his maiden race and the Nashua Stakes last year, showing talent at a mile. He took a little time off to freshen, and was brought back in the Fountain of Youth, where he ran a sneaky-good third, as he attended close to the suicidal pace and was around late in his first start in 4 1/2 months. (He emerged from the race with the highest "Sheets" number, which is an advance metrics handicapping tool that tries to analyze all aspects of a race including trip and pace.) He moved forward in the Blue Grass by sitting just off the pace, quickening on the turn and winning impressively, albeit over a not-spectacular field.The critics have three negatives for Vekoma. The first is his breeding: his sire is Candy Ride, who's perfectly fine, but his damsire is Speightstown, who was a champion sprinter. That doesn't both us at all - Speightstown was out of router Gone West, and has produced multiple horses that have won at 10 furlongs (Seek Again, Haynesfield, Golden Ticket). The second is his physical running style: students of form all believe that his leg action is peculiar and doesn't portend a horse that wants to run fast for two minutes. We're not smart enough evaluators of form to give an answer on this, only to note that this has not been an issue in his first 4 races. Third is the unknown nature of his connections, which to us is backwards. Trainer George Weaver has been one of our favorites for over a decade, but hasn't had much success outside of Saratoga (where he's deadly every summer) because he hasn't had a Big Horse yet. Vekoma might be it. We're picking him to pull off the upset, give Weaver the spotlight he deserves as a top trainer, and finally, give us a square price in the Derby.
How to Bet
Our guess is that either Roadster or Game Winner is going to hover around 4-1 at post-time, so if there's a horse you like - be it them, Vekoma, or anyone else - just bet them to win! We say this every year, but sometimes it's easiest to not get cute and just hope that you can get a 400%+ return on investment. We intend to bet Vekoma and Long Range Toddy to win, and play some triples with them and Roadster up top, and use Tacitus, Code of Honor, Gray Magician and maybe Game Winner underneath.
Good luck and enjoy the race!
1 comment:
Great, I found what I've been looking for. Totosite
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