Transactions Analysis: The Mic Drop

Yes lads it's time.  After 18 years, 50,000 transactions, and 400 Ryan Cum Dempster jokes, the Young Boys' Wankdorf league has called it quits.  Which means there's only one last bit of housekeeping - a final TA!

At the risk of being sappy, Teddy and I started writing these on a whim in the 3rd season in the league's "recent messages" column, and at some point, one of us had the hair-brained idea to start a "site" with the columns, rather than using the message board.  We've since then populated this site with horse racing previews, World Cup analysis, and dissertations on the Heisman Trophy, but to us, this site has first and foremost been a repository for the TAs.  So let's give it the proper send off.  (El Angelo)

Some historical context might prove useful. The first real TA published on the blog--which, as Ang notes, happened something like 3-4 years into the TA era--contained the following entry:

Nigerian Gentlemen

Signed: Oliver Pérez (NYM - SP), Kenny Lofton (Tex - OF), Moisés Alou (NYM - OF), Jim Edmonds (StL - OF), Jon Lester (Bos - SP), Aubrey Huff (Bal - 3B,OF)

Waived:  Lester, Joel Piñeiro (Bos - SP,RP)

Hmm. So the Sese Sekos added (at least temporarily) two good, if flawed, young arms, presumably in an attempt to compete down the road. They then turned around and added FOUR past-their-prime outfielders, in what looks like a win-now strategy. Obviously, it's a touch early to completely abandon this season (unless you're Angelo, in which case you're already preparing your draft list for 2009), but the mixed signals are odd. (Teddy)

Well, they waived Cancer Boy Lester, so there's really just adding one arm, and that's the volatile Oliver! Perez. I've seen dumber ideas. Like....signing 3 guys who are well fit for a HACKING MASS squad and Jim Edmonds' corpse. Vomit. (Angelo)

...

All of the following is true: Moises Alou is now the general manager of the Dominican Winter League. Aubrey Huff is getting in Twitter fights with Seth McClung. Kenny Lofton is the CEO of Filmpool, Inc., which just produced an MMA movie starring the guy from Starship Troopers. Jim Edmonds has appeared on the Real Housewives of Orange County. None of Twitter, Filmpool Inc, or the Real Housewives existed when the original post was made.

So, yeah. We're talking a borderline actual geologic era here. (Teddy)

#20.  Val (1 season, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 1 DAFL)

Val's only season got off to a rip-roaring start when his first two draft picks were Nomar Garciaparra and Bret Boone, hot off the latter's Brady Anderson 1991 impersonation.  Can't fathom why Val lost.  (El Angelo)

The Nomar pick was understandable because Val's father's name is Onitnelav (he's Moldovan). (Teddy)

#18T. Vihal (1 season, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)
#18T. Other Scot (ibid)

I remember absolutely nothing about either of these guys other than that they participated remotely in the first draft at Andy's apartment, and I was dealing with them online.  I think they were Elders' friends?  Either way, they were so unmemorable they go below our other one-and-done owner. (El Angelo)

I want to tread lightly here because we're old enough that one or both of these guys could plausibly be dead by now. Thoughts and prayers(?). (Teddy)

#17.  Bartolacci (1 season, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)

Two words for everyone who was in the league the first year: Shane Reynolds. (El Angelo)

Dave's team ultimately met the same fate as his Twitter account: abandoned for a decade and then hacked by the Russians. (Teddy)

#16.  M*ke (2 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL, 1 Quit)

The guy who refused to give his team an actual name, and quit because we twice vetoed a trade where he dealt away all of his good players for - and this is serious - an injured Francisco Liriano, an uninjured Armando Benitez, Freddie Sanchez, JD Drew, and something called Gary Glover.  I remember exchanging about 400 emails around this trade brouhaha, including one where Will rejected the trade from China, and another where Sahil told someone to go get their shinebox.  (El Angelo)

My email reflects that shortly thereafter, Gary Glover was dropped for Luis Vizcaino. Then he got busted for child sexual assault. Things may have turned around, though, because his song "Rock and Roll Part 2" is featured in the new Joker movie.

#15.  Sahil (18 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 4 DAFL)

There is something truly glorious about Ironhead's 18-year run of futility, to the point where we're ranking him below people who were in the league for less than a full presidential administration.  I'll give the man this: he had the best team names, and I appreciated his desire to stick with the ee cummings typeface convention.  My personal favorites were "i am esix snead" and "bonderman's grundle," though I have no idea what generated the latter name.  (El Angelo)

A commonly voiced criticism of statistical analysis holds that numbers can be used to prove almost anything. There is merit to that criticism. For example, coming into this year Sahil's average place of finish over his time in the league was 8.9. That statistic implies that in last year's 8-team league, Sahil should have finished 0.9 places behind the last-place finisher. This, of course, did not happen. He instead finished 8th and last, thereby slightly *improving* his historical average place of finish to 8.8.

"bonderman's grundle" slaps, though. (Teddy)

#T13.  Matty (3 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)
#T13.  Ben (3 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)

Matt was an initial owner who bowed out after 3 years (and also my fairly useless brother).  Ben came into about a decade after it started, and also only lasted 3 years.  Both guys were of relatively good cheer, always willing to talk trade, and spectacular at busting Andy's balls.  The last skill is not one to under-appreciate, as we learned with, oh I don't know who...let's just call him, *ike.   (El Angelo)

This one caused some controversy in the GRBG's headquarters (currently located beneath the steam table at the Gowanus Whole Foods), as I vociferously argued that Ben's Mose Schrute beard should put him over the top. (Teddy)

#12.  Darrin (4 seasons solo, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)

I can't remember if Darrin was in from Year 1 or Year 2, but he also was always willing to talk trade and drink beer.  He's more memorable for bringing in a co-owner who, unlike many of the other names on this list, actually knew what he was doing, and made the league tough for stiffs like me.  Solid on his own; tough when he was a co-owner.  (El Angelo)

The increasing competency of the league over time remains a vexation. Get dumber, people. (Teddy)

#11.  Jon (17 seasons, 0 wins, 1 cash, 2 DAFL)

In three separate years, Jon and I executed draft-day trades where I traded down and still got the player I wanted plus something extra.  Mind you, in none of those years did either of us finish in the money.  I think Jon's best season was about a decade ago when he won the Deathship league.  (El Angelo)

I'll always remember Jon for trading me Troy Tulowitski eleven days prior to Tulo's first major knee injury. I still have a printed-out copy of the espnzone.lycos.com story announcing the injury on the floor of my bird's cage. The bird died in 2012, so I doubt it minds. (Teddy)

#10.  Corey (14 seasons, 0 wins, 1 cash, 2 DAFL)

Pips Jon because he finished in 2nd once, while Jon never topped 3rd.  Really, the best part about this league calling it quits was getting rid of any emails with wormcheesemousebird.  (El Angelo)

You know, we're almost done with this finale post and we haven't really done anything yet to pass along our accumulated wisdom to the next generation of people who will undoubtedly use the Blogger platform to chronicle their fantasy teams. Let's correct that by dropping three nuggets of wisdom:

1. The word "Neshek" is funny; use it relentlessly.
2. Never get aboard an aircraft piloted by a New York Yankee
3. Once your league owners start having kids, MAINTAIN AN UP-TO-DATE SPREADSHEET OF THOSE KIDS' NAMES. I cannot emphasize this last point too strongly. (Teddy)

#9.  Andy (18 seasons, 0 wins 2 cashes, 2 DAFL)

As an initial point, I want to say that Andy was a superb commish for nearly two decades.  This wasn't the most contentious league, but several of us, myself included, are pains in the ass, and Sahil is Sahil.  I mean, this league was started by a bunch of law school students, and then voluntarily added multiple Duke alums and a guy working for George W. Bush.  Prickishness was a given.  But Andy's patience and fairness were a testament to his character.

In terms of being an owner...well, Andy's most consequential move was dealing a prospect named Mike Trout and a future first rounder to Scot in July 2011 as part of an ill-fated pennant drive.  Andy finished in 8th - and by points, closer to last than 5th - and Scot used Trout plus the pick (which became Zack Greinke) to win 4 of the next 5 titles.  Woof.  (El Angelo)

Seconded. This was a hell of a lot of effort for no reward other than dealing with a rotating cast of snarkmonsters. I've been meaning to tell Andy that for a long time, but I'm still waiting for him to sober up from that poker game in 2002 where he locked himself in the bathroom. (Teddy)

#8.  Angelo (17 seasons, 0.5 wins, 4.5 cashes, 4 DAFL)

With the passage of time, I completely forgot about my mid-late 2000s version of The Process, where I basically sat out two years with the idea of accumulating draft picks, only to blow them on baseball's versions of Jahlil Okafor.  My results in this league were essentially a sine curve: in the money the first two years, jack shit after the benefits of a good initial draft wore off, a little bump of success about 8 years in, followed by more jack shit, then an out-of-nowhere win with co-owner Wilfredo.  Viva Stable Geniuses!  (El Angelo)

The relentless avoidance of mediocricy was impressive. Although, in retrospect, it's fair to question the wisdom of tanking for draft picks in a league in which the 144 top players may not reach the draft. Thanks also for blowing what I know to be multiple days of your one and only life on this extremely odd thing we created. (Teddy)  

#7.  Will (17 seasons, 0.5 wins, 3.5 cashes, 2 DAFL)

My partner goes above me because (a) he rode the hell out of our team in September last year to get us the W, and (b) he sucked less frequently than me.  The genesis of our 2018 team was forged at Tucker's wedding, when Will and I - for reasons unclear - described the TA column to a dozen extremely confused, drunk, and sunburned WASPs.  My other favorite contribution Will made to the league was repeatedly making trade demands and threatening to put you on the No Fly List if you didn't accept.  I like to think that Sahil still gets a full cavity search every time he's at BWI.  (El Angelo)

Will's other claim to fame was proving completely impervious to predictions made in the column. This included predictions by Ang and I, as well as polls of the league as a whole. Although it makes sense that our own deplorable would prove unmeasurable by polls. (Teddy)  

#6.  Jake (12 seasons, 1 win, 5 cashes, 0 DAFL)

Never forget: in the league's first year, 9 owners finished behind 2 guys who spent 5 weeks on the road with no internet access, and another guy with a debilitating medical issue.  Man, we really should have convinced Val to stay in the league.  (El Angelo)

I learned I had climbed from 8th to 3d over those five weeks by using a public internet kiosk in the food court of the Stardust. Almost none of those nouns still exist. (Teddy)

#5.  Teddy (18 seasons, 1 win, 6 cashes, 0 DAFL)

I actually thought my co-author had more cashes than this - he never really punted in a given year, and usually drafted well in the middle rounds.  A review of the old standings revealed that he had four seasons where he accumulated 91 - 96.5 points, and won in none of those years.  It wasn't until I took a year off that the competition lightened enough for him to be able to hoist the trophy.  (El Angelo)

My strength was making getting the best out of the roster I drafted--in other words, as a fantasy coach. But like so many other coaches who also aspire to GM, I leave a legacy as a genuinely questionable drafter. I should have just thrown on autodraft every year and then figured out my platoons from there. (Teddy)


#4.  Andrew/Darrindrew (14 seasons, 2 wins, 7 cashes, 0 DAFL)

The top 4 owners were truly in an echelon above the rest - after the inaugural season, there wasn't a year where at least one of them didn't finish in the money, they took two of the three money slots in 12 of those 17 years, and swept the money 4 times.  Andrew was one of our steadiest owners - he won in what I think was his first year playing in 2007 (with Darrin back then), and was constantly in the money or a threat to cash.  On a personal level, I sadly have never met Andrew, and I think his connection to the league was Darrin, who came in through Jake.  If you're ever in New York, Mr. Cain, beers on me.  (El Angelo)

Agreed; all I have to add is that the data really broke down in some earlier years, so we don't really have know for sure where Darrin ended and Andrew began. Fourteen years earns magnanimity. (Teddy) 

#3.  Alex (17 seasons, 4 wins, 8 cashes, 0 DAFL)

A win for each time he drafted Huston Street too early.  (El Angelo)

Either his Simpsons icon hasn't been updated for a while or it is pulling some kind of reverse Portrait of Dorian Grey on him. (Teddy)

#2.  Tucker (18 seasons, 4 wins, 8 cashes, 0 DAFL)

Not only was he perpetually in contention, Tucker yearly had the most predictable yet unique roster construction of anyone in the league: top-notch hitters, a 1-2 man bench, and cycle through a zillion pitchers while riding hot hands.  I didn't do the math, but I would bet that Tucker cut over 600 relief pitchers over the his stewardship.  And it largely worked!  It's almost like he was a precursor to modern baseball pitching usage.  (El Angelo)

Yeah, he's the one who turned the Astros on to spin rate. But I'll remember him best as the runaway winner of the "Loudest Audible Scoffs Over a Draft Conference Call" awards from 2008-2015. Those were first-ballot performances. (Teddy) 

#1.  Scot (14 seasons, 5 wins, 10 cashes, 1 DAFL)

In the money 71% of the time, the most wins, and a last place finish tossed in just to throw us off the scent.  (He promptly wasted the first pick on Hanley Ramirez!)  There's really no debate who was the dominant owner in the league; it's almost enough to let us ignore the fact he's a Texas Rangers fan.  My compliments to the ultimate champ.  (El Angelo)

He came across so reasonably over email, too. Even so, I like to assume that he spent all our money on needle drugs and puppy catapults. Makes it easier, somehow. (Teddy)

*  *  *

Finally, for posterity, here are the final statistical standings. Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Es.

	AVG FINISH	Cashes	Cash %	Wins	Win %
Scot	4	9	0.64	5	0.36
Alex	4.1	9	0.53	4	0.24
Tucker	4.2	9	0.5	4	0.22
Jake	5.3	5	0.42	1	0.08
Chad	5.5	6	0.33	1	0.06
Darrandrew***	5.7	6	0.35	2	0.12
Angelo	6.7	4.5	0.26	0.5**	0.03
Will	7.2	2.5	0.18	0.5**	0.03
Matty G.	7.2	0	-	0	-
Corey*	7.3	1	0.07	0	-
Andy	7.4	2	0.11	0	-
Ben	7.6	0	-	0	-
Jon	8.3	1	0.06	0	-
Sahil	8.8	0	-	0	-
Barto	9	0	-	0	-
Vihal	9	0	-	0	-
Other Scot	9	0	-	0	-
Mike*	9	0	-	0	-
Val	12	0	-	0	-
	* Corey split '07 with Mike; finish assigned to Mike
** Co-owners in year of victory
	† ***Coupled as an entry because of past joint ownership

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Transaction Analysis: The Resurrection

While we talked about ending the TA thanks to life, work, family and general fatigue, a draft recap is still too juicy to pass up.  So now with one of us on the East Coast and one on the West Coast, let's do a bleary-eyed TA of this year's draft.  Ready, Teddy?  (El Angelo)

Wait who what now? Did that draft actually happen? It was 7AM, and I was sober and trying to help my 8.5 month pregnant wife with our 19 month-old in between 90 second draft windows. I might as well have tried to draft while BASE jumping off of the Freedom Tower. (Teddy)

1. Wu Tang Financial: Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati.

I had operated under the assumption that Jon would go for Braun first, but there's a lot of bad OBP players you can hide when you're starting a guy who has a .430 on base buy-in.  I'm a little bearish on Votto long-term because I think Cincinnati is about to hit their decline phase and he doesn't knock in a ton of guys since he walks once a game, but it's tough to criticize the pick.  (El Angelo)

There were five very good players available at the top, and it's not worth getting too worked up about the order in which they were drafted. FWIW, I would have gone with Votto here as well. Although, I mean, I went for Reyes at 6, so I'm not sure how meaningful my endorsement is. (Teddy)

2.  Le Dupont Torkies: Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington.

Assuming you're fine with taking pitchers in the top 3, this was the right move.  Yeah, SS has the arm question and he hasn't really had a truly elite season since coming back from Tommy John surgery, but he's still young, in front of a great defense, and has nasty stuff.  Tucker usually leans pitching early, and did well here.  (El Angelo)

Tucker is traditionally the pitcher whisperer, so this probably means Strasburg is finally going to tear apart this league this year. That said, because of his ability to find SP value further down the draft order, I would have had him take Bruan here. As a former owner of a CarGo-Braun-based OF, I can testify that having those two guys together lets you run platoons at a couple of other positions and still end up just fine in all five categories. (Teddy)

3.  The Grand Swipes: Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee.

Just because he got caught doesn't mean he's going to stop juicing, right?  (El Angelo)

Hey, good to meet you. Of course, I'm happy to pee in this cup. Let me just whip this sucker out and [points over tester's shoulder] WAIT LOOK OVER THERE IS THAT BOB UECKER SODOMIZING THE  BRATWURST?!? OK, here you go. Pleasure working with you. (Teddy)

4.  Paging Dr. Rumack: Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia.

Lee's an ace, but he's old enough that you have to think you're going to compete this year or next year to really make this pick worthwhile.  Looking at this roster, I'm not certain that a top-3 finish is in the cards so I question the wisdom a little and wonder if there was a reason they didn't just re-up Posey.  Good player, though.  (El Angelo)

Yeah, that was my reaction too. I mean, you're not going to criticize a guy for picking Cliff Lee, but Posey has been a top-3 catcher every healthy year, and they've now banned home plate collisions in order to save him from himself. (Teddy)

5.  Jazzy Rural Grammar: Buster Posey, C, San Francisco.

There's nothing wrong with taking a catcher in his mid-20s that is going to be at his peak for the next 4 years and has already won an MVP award.  Easy and correct pick.  Welcome, Ben! (El Angelo)

Yeah, no earthly way to criticize this one. (Teddy)

6.  Bridge Year: Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto.

I know Teddy didn't love making this pick, but c'mon.  Shortstop is an extremely shallow position, and Reyes is a good OBP/runs/steals guy.  Yes, he needs to get on the field more than 100 games, and the 75 steal seasons are long-gone, but he's more than capable of a .350 OBP, 12 HR, 30 SB, 100 R stat line.  You'll take that from your shortstop any day.  (El Angelo)

Hate. (Teddy)

7.  Torn Ligaments: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington.

Zimmerman has put up almost identical stat lines the last two years, so if you're in love with an oft-injured declining third baseman that has solid power, he's your man.  I shrugged my shoulders at the pick at the time, but with the exception of the guy who went next, it's not like there were a ton of great options at this point, as depressing as that may seem.  (El Angelo)

I might be alone in this, but I like Holliday more than this guy or the next, and would have taken him at 6 if I didn't already have a full OF. Zimmerman might have one healthy season in him over the three-year keeper contract; Holliday will more than likely have at least two. (Teddy)

8.  Fredbird's Pants: Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles.

I love this pick.  The next batch of guys are all unproven, old, or specialists, so why not take a flyer on the guy who, if healthy, has a shot to be an MVP?  It's not like you're going to horribly regret passing on the next set of draft picks.  (El Angelo)

He's had one great full year in what is now a 7-year career, and is no longer the best OF on his own team. I like playing for upside risk as much as the next guy (see my next pick). But why not just take Grady Sizemore in round 15 and be done with it? (Teddy)

9.  MERCER beat duke: Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis.

Still putting up good stats at 34, Holliday actually lead the league in one category last year: grounding into double plays.  But I can't quibble too much with this pick - outfield is shallow as hell in this draft, and Holliday will be good until he's too expensive to keep.  (El Angelo)

10.  Torn Ligaments: Joe Mauer, C/1B, Minnesota.

Had there been any chance that Mauer would have qualified at catcher beyond this year, he would have gone in the top 5.  But alas he doesn't, which means that Corey probably just drafted Mark Grace.  (El Angelo)

Hey, that one season at 1B has a lot of value, and I think he'll be playable at UTIL even after this year just because of the OBP. He'll become a guy you have to surround with the right mix of complementary players rather than a foundational guy, but that's just fine. (Teddy)

11.  The Spam Avengers: Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta.

The team's keeper list had a good offense, the best pitcher in baseball, and a solid #2 starter.  They're clearly going for it this year, so it makes perfect sense to add a guy that's going to rack up 35 saves and help you a bit in rate categories.  Good example of striking while the iron is hot even if taking a closer in the first round seems premature.  (El Angelo)

Yeah, this is where having a good keeper list coming in really frees you up. A first-round closer is a luxury many teams couldn't afford; for these guys he's a redneck-shaped peg in a redneck-shaped hole. (Teddy)

12.  Fat Dog for Baseball: Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis.

I don't dislike the pick, but I thought it was an odd fit for a team looking to threepeat.  If they're serious about trotting out Billy Hamilton and his .225 OBP for the entire season, I would have thought an OBP guy woudl have been the right play here.  I guess the problem is I don't know who fits in that category.  Jayson Werth?  Alex Gordon?  Yeah, I wouldn't take either of them in the first round either.  (El Angelo)

This team did not need more offense. They probably could have finished in the middle of the pack if they just started their keepers on offense and left the other slots empty. So kind of the same deal as above--why not take a fun young arm and hope for the best? (Teddy)

13.  MERCER beat duke: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh.

Alvarez is hitting his prime for a team on the rise and lead the league in home runs last year.  I normally enjoy making fun of Sahil's picks, and Alvarez is far from a complete player, but I honestly don't see a way to crap on this pick.  Nice job.  (El Angelo)

Alvarez is the streakiest hitter in the league, so if you can time his start/sits right he can give you a season's worth of production in 70 games. That's a rather large if, of course. (Teddy)

14.  Fredbird's Pants: Albert Pujols, 1B, Anaheim.

We're going to conduct a study in first basemen with the next three picks.  Behind Door Number Two is a guy who for his first ten seasons was one of the best players in baseball history.  His last 3 years have been much more pedestrian and nobody knows how old he is.  But that history is tempting.  So Andy goes with the rebound theory.  I can defend it and not particularly care for it.  (El Angelo)

Hey, good to meet you. Of course, I'm happy to pee in this cup. Let me just whip this sucker out and [points over tester's shoulder] WAIT LOOK OVER THERE IS THAT JOE BUCK SODOMIZING A  TOASTED RAVIOLI?!? JUST FROM A LOGISTICAL STANDPOINT, HOW IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE?!? OK, here you go. Pleasure working with you. (Teddy)

15.  Torn Ligaments: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Los Angeles.

Behind Door Number Two is a first baseman who had a "hidden" peak while at San Diego, crapped out in Boston, and has morphed into a back-nine Todd Helton while in Los Angeles.  He won't crater, but I will bet that Gonzalez doesn't get a single MVP vote over the rest of his career.  So Corey goes with certainty.  The problem is the certainty is that Gonzalez is back in this draft before the next Presidential election.  (El Angelo)

To answer the actual question, I would prefer the steady guy. I think Gonzalez is going to have a nice, steady, Konerkonian decline, while I have grave concerns about Pujols' fasciia. (Teddy)

16.  Bridge Year: Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago (NL).

Behind Door Number Three is a former stud prospect who had a great rookie year and an absolute shitshow last year and is seeking refuge on a rebuilding team, both in real and fantasy life.  It then makes sense that my humble co-author, who clearly doesn't think he can compete this year, took a paisan from Boston with the pick in the hope that he blossoms into a cornerstone.  And I really like the gamble.  Rizzo could end up with the Ike Davis trajectory and I still like the pick.  (El Angelo)

I just figure that anyone capable of hitting major league pitching at 20 doesn't all of a sudden start sucking. On the other hand, Starlin Castro. (Teddy)

17.  Jazzy Rural Grammar: Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City.

An actual email I got from Andy earlier this month:

Actually, upon some review, this is a pretty good draft.  Hell of a lot better than last year, which was basically a leper colony after the top.  I think I should be getting someone reasonably valuable at 14, which is not bad.  (For reference, last year's 13, 14, 15 were Alex Gordon, Dan Haren, and Carlos Santana).

So if you wanted to know where the commish thinks the line between "good" and "leper" hit, it was at pick 16, two picks after he took the desiccated remains of Albert Pujols.  (El Angelo)

Alex Gordon is the best player who never, ever gets kept. There's some sort of Pewter Parachute designation in there, but I can't quite find it. (Teddy)

18.  The Grand Swipes: Mashahiro Tanaka, SP, New York (AL).

I basically decided this year to embrace risk and upside and go with young guys over proven old farts.  Tanaka is playing before one of the worst infields I have ever seen and the ghosts of Kei Igawa and Hideki Irabu loom large, but I'm satisfied with the pick.  (El Angelo)

Great value at this spot. (Teddy)

19.  Paging Dr. Rumack: Everth Cabrera, SS, San Diego.

There are two categories that it's nice to be able to just take 1 or 2 players and then forget about for the rest of the year.  Assuming he doesn't get hurt, Andrew is now free to forget about steals until August.  (El Angelo)

Feh. (Teddy)

20.  Le Dupoint Torkies: Glen Perkins, RP, Minnesota.

I knew last year's draft when we took 1 closer in the first 2 rounds had to be a fluke.  Had to be.  (El Angelo)

Meh. (Teddy)

21. Wu Tang Financial: Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas.

Well, by Andy's theory of creeping draft improvement, Andrus should have gone at 26 this year instead of 23, like he did last year.  So the draft got....worse in the mid/late second round?  Can we get some quant to weigh in here?

Also, I think this confirms that taking Erick Aybar last year wasn't a good idea.  (El Angelo)

Each day that Erick Aybar laces up his cleats in anger confirms that taking him in any year is not a good idea. (Teddy)

22.  Torn Ligaments: Jayson Werth, OF, Washington.

Of all of Corey's four picks at the top of the draft, I thought this was the best one.  That probably doesn't speak well of his chances for this season.  (El Angelo)

So many jokes. Head. Hurts. (Teddy)

23.  The Grand Swipes: Brian McCann, C, New York (AL).
24.  The Grand Swipes: Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia.

Hamels was a pure flyer - had he been healthy, he was a first round pick and this is a keeper league after all.  As for McCann, I wanted to instill some discipline in my team and teach them the unwritten rules of fantasy baseball.  He's the man for the task.  (El Angelo)

I think McCann is going to go crazy in that bandbox this year, and love that pick. I was hoping he'd slide to me in the 3d. (Teddy)

Transactions Analysis: 2013 Draft

Eleven years ago, the inaugural draft was held in Jake's DC apartment, attended by 8 of us, with 4 more calling in or chatting in remotely (and me monitoring them all, for some bizarre reason).  As I recall, we went through about $300 worth of beer that evening, couldn't figure out why Val took the pair of Bret Boone and Nomar Garciaparra with his first two picks, and much revelry was had.

A mere decade later, our latest draft was done by conference call and a Google doc, and was most notable for the number of screaming children in the background.  I have to think that most of us made liberal use of the mute button (I certainly did) or else the entire production would have sounded like Romper Room crossed with Bud Selig's barbershop appointments.   In any event, this year's draft is in  the books.  What do you get when you replace alcohol with Laurie Berkner?  Examine we must.  (El Angelo)

I drafted Laurie Berkner in the 7th round, if that gives you any indication. I probably should have just ceded control to the autdraft. (Teddy)

1.  Ancient Alien Attack: Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay
2.  Ancient Alien Attack: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado
3.  Ancient Alien Attack: David Price, SP, Tampa Bay

In 1992, blessed with the first two picks in the NFL draft, the Indianapolis Colts selected defensive players Steve Emtman and Quentin Coryatt, thinking they would put their defense in place for the next decade.  It didn't quite pan out that way. Emtman was done by 27 with myriad injuries, which started with him blowing out his knee three months into his career.  Coryatt had a pedestrian 5 seasons with the Colts where he was mostly healthy but produced little.  While everyone thinks the Colts blew the picks, pickings in that draft were slim: the best player that year was one of Sean Gilbert, Troy Vincent, Desmond Howard and Darren Woodson, hardly a murderer's row of players.

I felt like I was in the exact same scenario this year.  Studs were nigh in the draft thanks to everyone keeping the best players at +infinity keeper slots, leaving me with the options of taking guys at positions I didn't really need (3B and SP) and studs who were hurt a ton last year.  If Longoria and Tulo are healthy, I feel like I took the two best players in the draft, and I can't complain about taking the reigning Cy Young winner.  But there's a lot of risk here for the top 3 slots.  (El Angelo) 

The one upside to the way things shook out is that they made it impossible to flub these picks. Even if all three guys are killed in a Modern Alien Attack that for some reason is localized to Tampa and Denver, these were still the obvious choices at the time. (Teddy)

4.  Jeters Never Prosper: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Los Angeles
5.  Jeters Never Prosper: Jered Weaver, SP, Anaheim

Jered Weaver going back to Jake was the easiest prediction to make in the draft.  As we'll see there was a lot of "re-upping" in this year's draft, as a bunch of guys just ended up with their old contracts re-set.  Regardless, I like the Weaver pick here.  I'm less certain I like the Gonzalez pick, who was showing signs of creakiness by the end of last year.  (El Angelo)

I'd agree except for his whackadoo OF eligibility. The team had multiple OF slots to fill and (as we'll see very shortly indeed) the OF crop fell off a cliff pretty quickly this year. (Teddy)

6.  Le Dupont Torkies: Ben Zobrist, MI, Tampa Bay

Speaking of players re-upping with their old teams!  You can't argue with taking this guy here because of positional flexibility.  A good fit for Tucker's machinations as well.  (El Angelo)

Zobrist has been undervalued for a few years because Tampa sort of hides him in their system. However, I have a few concerns now, mostly centered around the fact that Tampa has finally brought in quasi-regulars at SS (Yunel Escobar) and 2B (Ryan Roberts and Kelly Johnson (!)). If those guys stick, Zobrist will only be playable at OF next year, and he'll be much less interesting as a 33 y/o OF then he has been over the past few years. But for this year, good pick.

Also, that now makes three Rays in the top six picks. I'm pretty sure a Devil Ray didn't come off the board until the second keg back at the inaugural draft.  (Teddy)

7.  Corey Loves Dickey: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston

I know the owner's not in love with this pick, but if healthy, Pedroia is a stud player at an extremely shallow position.  Of course, "if healthy" is the largest caveat one can provide in fantasy sports behind "if not in jail" and "if not on the Astros."  (El Angelo)

The shallowness of 2B is sort of interesting. As noted in the Valuetron posts, I sort of think it goes one deep. After that, there's a tier with about 4-6 interesting guys, then another tier with one- or two-category specialists. If true, that would mean it's not worth it to chase the position early. If, on the other hand, Pedroia stays healthy and rebounds to join Robinson Cano up top, this is great value. As a Sox fan I'd love to see that, but guys with metal plates in their feet make me nervous. (Teddy)

8.  The Spam Avengers: Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas

The right pick for this year that I don't particularly love going forward.  Kinsler is a well-above average second baseman now, and should retain eligibility at the position for next year even if they switch him to first at some point to make room for Saint Jurickson Profar.  If that's the case, then he won't lose eligibility at 2B until 2015, and I suppose it's asinine to not take a guy if you're worried about his position eligibility two years down the road.  So in short, good pick.  (El Angelo)

Well, except it's not that great of a pick for this year if he's on the bench. He's only going to see the field if Cano gets hurt or he outplays Freddie Freeman and Brandon Belt. There aren't that many older 2Bs who are likely to outhit a pair of young 1Bs. Kinsler is probably as close as it gets. But I was a little surprised we didn't see another redraft here with Carlos Santana. (Teddy)

9.  mahmoud abdul rauf: Aroldis Chapman, P, Cincinnati

High-risk for a shitload of reasons: it's a closer in the top-10, or he's a guy stretching out to the rotation, and it'll surprise nobody if Chapman ends up with the Neftali Perez Surgery Kit by July.  But Chapman's stuff and upside is so filthy that I'll indulge the pick and applaud having the balls to make it here.  There weren't a lot of guys left on the board who have the potential to be a franchise cornerstone, so why not take a shot at one?  (El Angelo)

Cincy has announced that Chapman will stay at closer for this year, so I think that's what you have to assume his role will be going forward. That probably makes this a dubious value proposition. But the guy is just so fun that I can't bring myself to care. (Teddy)

10.  Paging Dr. Rumack: Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto

Hill is in the nether world of below the Cano/Pedroia/Kinsler/Zobrist second basemen but above pretty much everyone else with the possible exception of Jason Kipnis.  This looks a little like an overdraft to me, but Hill wouldn't have gotten past Teddy with the next pick and has enough positional value that I can't kill it.  (El Angelo)

Oh, Hill would have gotten past me with the next pick. (Teddy)

11.  Brooklyn Tweedbeards: Shin Soo-Choo, OF, Cincinnati

Your humble authors proceeded to expend their next selections on outfielders that offer consistency at the expense of greatness.  Choo is hardly an elite outfielder but it's not like there were a ton of options left either at the position or in the outfield.  He's a fairly solid contributor that should give good stats in all categories and actually boost your OBP, so it's....fine, I suppose.  Don't love it, don't hate it at all.  (El Angelo)

I had needs at SS and 2B, but there was nobody super exciting at those slots. So I just went best available, which I think is Choo now that he is surrounded by actual professional hitters and playing in a bandbox. My major concern is that he's going to hurt himself trying to play CF. (Teddy)

12.  The Braun Advantage: Jordan Zimmerman, SP, Washington

The keeper list dictated that he take a starter here, so you can't really argue with going with the best one available.  That he took a guy that I like to take a big step forward this year is probably a negative, but the pick gets a hearty endorsement from me.  (El Angelo)

After Weaver and Price went off the board, we hit the zone where you sort of just wave your hand towards a pitcher and hope. But this was a pretty safe pick for a team that didn't really have much in the way of obvious needs. (Teddy)

13.  Ancient Alien Attack: Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City

The minute I took this I regretted not taking Carlos Santana, but the rationale was that I needed another steady outfielder in his prime before a catcher, especially since catcher was sneaky-deep this year.  The second half of the gambit worked in that I was able to get The Non-Injured And Can Catch Montero later on while adding a dependable outfielder, but something doesn't sit right about using my first four picks on two Rays, a Rockie and a Royal.  (El Angelo)

Steady is about the right word for this--AAA traded some upside for a playable bat, which makes sense given that he is clearly playing for this year. I like Santana a lot, though, so I can understand the agita. Maybe you can get Josh Reddick to Theismann him again this season so that you can digest your meals in peace. (Teddy)

14.  Brooklyn Tweedbeards: Dan Haren, SP, Washington

The good news for Haren is that he's switching leagues this year.  The bad news is that he's not going to get much better defense than he got last year in Anaheim and his body still has the owsies.  I don't really hate the pick, but I actually like other starters Teddy took with later picks (Jon Niese, Mike Minor, Edwin Jackson) better.  (El Angelo)

The velocity has been creeping up during spring training, so I took the plunge. All of my trades meant that my picks were shifted pretty far forward in the draft. So I pretty much just took guys I wanted and didn't worry about the round/value. (Teddy)

15.  Spreading Santorum: Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland

We're used to Will not having a first round pick; the only one he's had in the last four years was used on Dan Uggla's decaying remains last year.  What we're less used to is Will actually making a great pick in the top two rounds.  After years of taking Brandon Lyon and Heath Bell much earlier than necessary, taking a top-tier catcher coming into his prime at 15 is a steal.  Great job.  (El Angelo)

Yep, loved it. (Teddy)

16.  Jeters Never Prosper: Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee

Yet another player that re-ups with his old team, re-setting his contract.  Has anyone else in the league had Aramis at any point?  (El Angelo)

I feel like I had him at some point in the early aughts, although I feel that way about virtually every non-Yankee. (Teddy)

17.  Dickey Centre: Martin Prado, 2B/3B, Arizona

First off, for some reason, this team was briefly titled "Corey's Team" while we were drafting yesterday, which confused and pissed the hell out of me.  I was all set to start a season of using the asterisk once again, because after taking over for M*ke, C*rey's Team would have been appropriate in so many ways.

As to the pick, I didn't love it at the time because Prado doesn't do anything spectacularly well, as he has meh power and minimal speed.  That said, I didn't process during the draft that Prado had second base eligibility, which rescues the pick a bit, but not that much.  C*rey appears to be the second-biggest fan of Prado on God's Green Earth.  Unfortunately for Diamondbacks fans, the biggest is Kevin Towers.  (El Angelo)

I really liked Prado as a sneaky 2B option, although I also thought that the time to spring that particular trap was in the middle rounds someplace. This reminds me of the time I drafted JJ Hardy in about the same slot after seeing a bunch of SSs come off the board and panicking. Being 5th in line in an early 2B run just feels like a bad spot. Nice player, though. (Teddy)

18.  Corey Loves Dickey: Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore

The commish appears to be taking the "up the middle approach" this year by keeping a shortstop and taking a 2B and catcher with the first two picks.  Given the latent sameness of most of the outfielders in the pool, it's a defensible strategy.  Unfortunately, it also lead to Alexi Ogando being his second starter.  (El Angelo)

Andy is the morning line favorite to amass the most transactions this year as he frantically fishes for arms. That offense, though. Man. (Teddy)

19.  Wu Tang Financial:  Erick Aybar, SS, Anaheim

Here's the thing - I actually don't mind Aybar as a fantasy sleeper this year, because if Scioscia is stupid enough to bat him leadoff, he's going to steal a few bases and score a shitload of runs with Trout, Hamilton and Pujols hitting behind him.  But I cannot endorse taking the man nineteenth overall in the draft.  I would have loved this pick if Jon had made it in the seventh round, and I'm going to go ahead and guess that Aybar would have been available then.  It also is a head-scratcher given that he took Alcides Escobar two rounds later as well.  Did we add a middle infield position and not tell me?  (El Angelo)

So, this was not great. Can we all agree on that? I thought so. I'm going to draw the curtain of charity across the rest of the scene. (Teddy)

20.  The Spam Avengers: Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis

Ultimately this comes down to whether you think last year's gains by Yadier was sustainable for a few more years or a career year.  If it's the latter, then Alex was probably better off going with a pitcher here (Lester?) and taking one of the Montero twins in the next round.  If you think 2012 can be repeated, then it's a good pick.  I lean towards career year.  (El Angelo)

I'm a little more bullish than that on Yadi, but I do agree that he's a tier down from the younger guys like Wieters and Santana. (Teddy)

21.  Jeters Never Prosper: Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia

Papelbon may not be everyone's cup of tea and Charlie Manuel's usage patterns may give Joe Sheehan 32 aneurysms this year, but he's by far the best closer available and this team kept none.  I'm not sure he'll be gracing Jake's roster in 2015, but he can worry about that then.  For now, it's a very nice pick.  (El Angelo)

Absolutely, especially for a team that has legitimate aspirations to hitting the board this year. He already had SPs coming out of his ears, so this was the right point to pivot towards the pen. (Teddy)

22.  Paging Dr. Rumack:  Jon Lester, SP, Boston

I can't quite figure out what to make of Lester this year.  I know a lot of saber-analysts love him, but both the K rate and HR rate are headed in the wrong direction the last two seasons.  I guess I see a slight rebound this year, if for no other reason than the Yankees' and O's offenses have to be worse this year, making the division a little easier, and the Stench of Bobby V is gone.  I guess?  (El Angelo)

The hope in Boston is that he'll benefit from being reunited with new manager John Farrell, who was the Sox' pitching coach under Tito Francona. His velocity has dipped a bit, but his success has always been based more on his use of the cutter. If Farrell can resurrect that pitch, Lester should be very solid. I think the high-K days might be over, but the Ws and rate stats stand a good chance of rebounding. (Teddy)

23.  The Brooklyn Tweedbeards:  Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas

If you need speed and OBP, this is a good pick.  I was shocked just how bereft Andrus was of any power until I looked at his stats while prepping for the draft.  I just assumed that if you played in Texas, you automatically got 10 home runs.  (El Angelo)

One thing I noticed during my (admittedly scant) prep for this year's draft is just how rare OBP is once you get beyond the top sluggers. The days of guys like JD Drew and Bobby Abreu going .280/.380 seem to be behind us. So I did value OBP highly, on the theory that I can always rotate in a few all-or-nothing guys with favorable matchups to try to find some counting stats. Andrus had ~40 points of OBP on the next available non-crippled SS, so I jumped in. (Teddy)

24.  C*rey's Team: Matt Harvey, SP, New York (NL)

Fuck it, I'm keeping the old team name here for the header.  And I absolutely love this pick, my Met bias acknowledged.  Harvey's going to be a stud, and while he won't get any wins this year, he'll strikeout a shitload and if Los Mets can keep Lucas Duda tied to the bench, the defense behind him won't be awful.  And I can't believe I'm actually ending the draft TA on a positive note for maybe the first time ever.  (El Angelo)

I can't bring myself to burst a Met fan's bubble before the season even starts. . . good DAY! (Teddy)

Transactions Analysis: 2012 Draft Review

The 2012 draft is finally in the books which means it's time for the annual draft recap. Personal note: this crop of players sucked, and my comments reflect the same. Do you have a more optimistic view than me, Teddy? (El Angelo)

Ish. I do think that the dispersal and draft had the intended effect of bringing parity back to the league, so I think this will be a fun year. But, yeah, picks 6 through, I don't know, 50 or so were real tests of the human spirit. (Teddy)

1. Big Damn Heroes: Hanley Ramirez, SS/3B, Florida.

While I think everyone agreed this was the #1 pick, it's worth noting that Hanley's stat line last year was a cool .244/.333/.379, with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases, and he missed 70 games. If he returns to his 2009 level he's an elite player, but I don't think we've had someone go #1 with such poor prior year stats. Ever. (El Angelo)

Mo Vaughn. (Teddy)

2. Paging Dr. Rumack: Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle.

You can't argue with drafting a 25-year old pitching stud that's already won a Cy Young and plays in a pitcher's park. Sure he won't help you with wins, but they're impossible to predict anyway, so just enjoy the ride on the rate stats and K's for the next 5 years. (El Angelo)

While pitching-poor teams in the back half of the round had to deal with the unhappy issue of which guy to overdraft, the teams in the top half got to choose among three no-brainer SPs. I saw projections from two or three different systems, and none of them agreed on which of Felix, Lincecum, and Greinke would be best this year.

This might sound silly, but I actually think Albert Pujols's move from STL to LAA tipped the balance towards Greinke, even though Felix is the better pitcher. There isn't a lot of thunder left in the NL Central, and Greinke gets to face deeply lousy Cubs and Astros teams this year. With Pujols landing in the AL West, there are now two good offensive clubs (LAA and TEX) that Felix will have to face multiple times in the division. That said, there was no real wrong choice among the three. (Teddy)

3. Le Dupont Torkies: Mark Teixieria, 1B, New York (AL).

The shape of this team's keeper list--strong up the middle and good pitching--made this the definite pick here, but I really don't love it. Yes, Tex will continue to hit home runs in the Bronx Launching Pad and he'll get 100 RBIs every year he plays in that lineup. But he generates no steals, hasn't batted above .300 for 4 years, and just turned 32. He's a good first baseman and a starter, but not an elite player. Then again, this draft wasn't exactly deep in hitting studs, so I suppose it's not like the Torkies had much in the way of options here. (El Angelo)

The OBP trend is a little ominous. But who else to take? He didn't need pitching, and according to the rest of the picks his other options were two guys coming off of injury-shortened seasons and Dan Uggla. So while the pick might feel disappointing in a couple of years, I don't really see another option. (A feeling that I well understand, as we'll see below.) (Teddy)

4. Wu Tang Financial: Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco.

Strassburg, Shields and Tiny Tim is a neat top-3 of the rotation. The rest of the roster...well, we'll wait for the preview. (El Angelo)

I think I understand what happened here--WTF knew they'd have Tommy John candidate Lincecum joining Tommy John survivor Strassburg, so they preemptively offered up Joakim Soria to the elbow gods. The insurance premiums for this team must be murder. BTW, we here at the GRBG got a glimpse at WTF's draft sheet, and with this pick they were debating between Lincecum and the drummer from Spinal Tap. Good choice. (Teddy)

5. Big Damn Heroes (from Suicide by Jaguar): Zach Greinke, SP, Milwaukee.

This draft struck me as 4-deep in potential studs--as you can tell, I didn't count Tex as one of them--and this was #4, so good pick. (El Angelo)

This might have been the easiest pick in the draft--just take whichever of the three frontline starters made it to you. That he got the guy I think will be the best of the bunch this year is a nice bonus. (Teddy)

6. Westish Harpooners: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington.

I had no idea how bad Zimmerman's 2011 was until I just looked at his stats. Granted, he missed 1/3 of the season, but 12 home runs, 41 RBIs and a sub-800 OPS? The pick is bailed out because third base is such a wasteland that he's a top-tier player by default. (El Angelo)

The story I'm telling myself is that he was playing at less than 100% for the first month or so after he got back. But yeah, my two big acquisitions to this point (Zim and Joe Mauer) played less than a full healthy season between them. Yay? (Teddy)

7. Suicide by Jaguar (from death to the west): Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas.

Hamilton isn't as good as a #7 pick should be but it's the right call for a guy sitting with the #12 and 14 picks and a plethora of pitchers to choose from. If Hamilton can stay healthy for the next 3 years, this is the right pick, but I'd get another outfielder to make up those 150 plate appearances you're going to lose every summer. (El Angelo)

In light of this pick, the team should be renamed "Suicide by Jagermeister". (Teddy)

8. Westish Harpooners (from Quoth the Jennings): Jon Lester, SP, Boston.

Prior early pitching picks by my esteemed co-author in the last three years include Chad Billingsley, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, and Brett Myers. I think he's just double-jinxed his beloved Sawx and his fantasy team with this selection. (El Angelo)

This was an ADP-driven pick more than anything else. I had pitchers I liked better, but I thought I could get them later on. I didn't think Lester would be there. BTW, his K/BB ratio this spring is 4/9. So that's awesome.

And to be fair, Johan and Peavy were actually pretty good the year that I hit the board. They just shredded their arms in the process and ended up unkeepable. Billingsley? I ask that we draw the curtain of charity across that pick. (Teddy)

9. Kicked in the Nuts (briefly held by Quoth the Jennings): Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta.

On Independence Day last year, Uggla's stat line was .174/.243/.327. Eventually he rebounded to hit 36 home runs but with an OBP of .311. Clearly, hitting was shallow this year. (El Angelo)

10. Jeters Never Prosper: Yu Darvish, SP, Texas

11. Jeters Never Prosper (from the Moon Colonists via Paging Dr. Rumack): Josh Johnson, SP, Florida

With their two first round picks, the Calcified Shortstops take a guy shifting from Osaka to Fort Worth and a player who started 9 games last year. These could be two aces, two players annihilated by injury, or a pair of middling starters on good teams. It's stupid to say "we have no idea", but if you have a strong conviction about what these two pitchers are going to do, you should be in Vegas hammering a sports book. (El Angelo)

That's why I like the idea of sort of handcuffing them like this--he's trying to buy two flips of the coin instead of one. If they both hit, this is probably your league favorite headed into the season. (Teddy)

12. Suicide by Jaguar (from The Spam Avengers): Mat Latos, SP, Cincinnati

Players with a high similarity score include Bill Gullickson, Burt Hooton, Blue Moon Odom, and Scott Sanderson. I know that's exactly what the Commish was shooting for with this pick, in addition to a guy switching from a pitcher's heaven to a bandbox and Dusty Baker's watchful eye. (El Angelo)

Those comps don't mean that Latos will suck. They just mean that he's going to be very good rather than great. (Though did you remember that Bill Gullickson won the AL Cy Young in '91? You could have given me 25 guesses and I wouldn't have named him as the winner for that year.) I'm sure the commish will take the three years of very good while Latos is still cheap and deal with the fallout when it comes. (Teddy)

13. Big Damn Heroes: Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis

Talent-wise, this is the right pick here, but Carpenter's already injured and is fairly old. He's a top 15 starter if all is right with him, but minus Dave Duncan and at his age, query whether this was the right pick for a team that's probably not going to compete until next year. (El Angelo)

Well, the draft was going pretty well for him to this point--I bet he thought he could compete this year just fine. That said, the subsequent bulging disc issues are really troubling--that would have been the worst post-draft injury if not for the Soria situation and the latest entirely justified plague visited by the Lord on Joba Chamberlain. So far we've had disease (polio), locusts (midges), and frogs (Michael Kay), to which we can now add the lesser-known plague of trampoline injuries. Famine is probably next, but that fat son of a bachelor could use a good famine. (Teddy)

14. Suicide by Jaguar (from Paging Dr. Rumack): Cory Luebke, SP, San Diego

From the man who last year drafted Frustratingly Talented Brandon Morrow, we now get a guy with great stuff that's accumulated a whopping 20 major league starts. I couldn't figure out if I liked this pick when it was made and still can't tell a week later. Luebke is probably a good pitcher that I was high on this year...but at #14? On the other hand, something tells me that he wouldn't have gotten past this round, so I suppose that makes him a value. (El Angelo)

For what it's worth, my projections loved this guy. I think SBJ snaked the guy that everyone was hoping to steal in the third round. That seems like a perfectly reasonable pick. (Teddy)

15. The Moon Colonists (from Le Dupont Torkies): Carl Crawford, OF, Boston

I'm banking on a rebound. If I'm wrong...well, just look who went next. (El Angelo)

Are you at all concerned by the fact that he hurt himself again the first time he actually tried to swing a bat this spring? Because I can tell you that as a Sox fan, I'm scared as hell. I've pretty much resigned myself to the Cody Ross era in Boston. (Teddy)

16. Wu Tang Financial: Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Boston

Yook strikes me as an odd pick because it's a lot of injury and age risk to take on a team that's already holding on to Ryan Howard's corpse and reliant on comebacks by Carlos Beltran and Stephen Strasburg. I don't have a huge problem with taking guys coming off injuries--see my next pick--but when they're on the wrong side of the age curve and are playing a position that's likely to get them hurt again, it looks like a bad fit. (El Angelo)

Weirdly, this pick would be more defensible next year, when Youks is likely to transition to DH after Papi finally retires, but would retain 3B eligibility in Yahoo. (Teddy)

17. Suicide by Jaguar: Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee

We need a nickname for players that you don't keep but then end up drafting with an early pick. I'll open the floor to suggestions. BTW, I like this pick here. (El Angelo)

Weeks is pretty high on that list of guys, although I think the first choice would have to be the Carlos Pena All-Stars. (Teddy)

18. The Moon Colonists (from Westish Harpooners): Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta

My strategy, in no small part, is taking stars, lottery tickets, and crossing my fingers. If Hanson were healthy, he probably would have gone in the top 10, with only one or two starters left who can even approach his level of potential, this seemed like a fair balance of risk and reward to me. (El Angelo)

SoSH has a pool every year on who will be the first pitcher to get Tommy John surgery. Hanson was the first pick. (Teddy)

19. death to the west: Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City

I've had Gordon enough times to be wary of last year's apparent breakout. My feeling he regresses somewhat and keeps his job, which makes him a useful player and probably a starter, just not the best outfielder available. (El Angelo)

I'm actually more bullish than that, especially because KC should have a sneaky-good offense this season. I don't think he has another big step forward in him, but I like him to consolidate his gains from last year. (Teddy)

20. Quoth the Jennings: Ike Davis, 1B, New York (NL)

Because any time you can take a third-tier first baseman that hits in a pitcher's park and is suffering from Valley Fever, you have to do it. (El Angelo)

Yes, but on the other hand . . . I can't think of an ending for this sentence. (Teddy)

21. Kicked in the Nuts: Heath Bell, RP, Florida

Not only is this a solid and sensible pick, it's a shock that this is the first closer to go. This league is notorious for taking firemen about 2 rounds earlier than usual, what the hell happened? (El Angelo)

To me, that was the strangest part of the draft--the one year there was nobody good to take among normal players, we collectively decided not to take closers either. Of course, Bell scares the hell out of me, given his declining K rate, move out of Petco, and the presence of the artist formerly known as Leo Nunez waiting in the wings. (Teddy)

22. Paging Dr. Rumack (from Jeters Never Prosper): Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia

I actually feel like James Calvin Rollins is excoriated enough in the sabermetric community that he's not a bad pick here. Yes, that OBP won't win you titles, but he steals bases, should score a bunch of runs, and is not bereft of power. I'm not saying he's a cornerstone of your franchise, but he's above replacement level for the position, especially in that ballpark. (El Angelo)

I disagree--I think Rollins has slid far enough back that he's no longer that distinguishable from the mass of other SS options. That said, if you like him for a bounceback year, he's good value here. I have my doubts. (Teddy)

23. Big Damn Heroes (from The Moon Colonists): Jayson Werth, OF, Washington

One of the steals of the draft, Werth should have gone about 8 picks earlier. Love this one. Don't love that Scot has added Hanley, Werth and Greinke to his team. (El Angelo)

Yep. (Teddy)

24. The Spam Avengers: Matt Garza, SP, Chicago (NL)

Our two-time defending champ started a run on pitchers on the exact same tier that ended roughly when Jon took Shawn Marcum. Problematically, that pick happened in the middle of Round 6. (El Angelo)

I actually liked Garza here--he ran in some bad luck last year, but his K rate was solid. Of course, I'm not sure how many Ws he'll get on this team. But I sure like him a lot more than Shawn Marcum. (Teddy)

Transactions Analysis: 2012 Warmup Edition

It's damn near the most wonderful time of the year. March Madness has kicked off, the thermometer hit 70 in the Greater Gowanus metropolitan area this week, and hundreds of out-of-shape baseball players are huffing through wind sprints and abbreviated stretching sessions in Florida and Arizona. To that embarrassment of riches, let us add one more: the inaugural TA of the 2012 season.

We are no longer the spry rookies we used to be. Where we used to lightly spring out of overstuffed chairs, we now have to haul ourselves steadily skyward while grunting to mask the the sounds of our joints cracking. (When I stand up, my knees make a sound like someone pouring Cheerios into a metal garbage can). So, as with those out-of-shape guys in the Grapefruit League, our primary goal is get our work in without injury and get back into the clubhouse before all of the fried chicken and beer is gone. But in the interval, we'll discuss the complete evisceration of the 2012 draft class in pre-keeper trades. Off we go. (Teddy)

Not only has it been months since we've had an actual TA, it's been ages since we've had a TA where every team had a transaction.  An active pre-keeper trading market was fun to watch; let's see how it shook out.  (El Angelo)

The Spam Avengers

• Traded Cliff Lee to Paging Dr. Rumack for pick #38

This deal kicked off trading season. In retrospect, it seems like about the right return, especially for a team that can absorb Lee's loss by relying on David Price and Clay Kershaw. A reasonable bit of profit-taking by an owner who was always going to be pretty quiet in the early rounds of the draft this year. (Teddy)

I think my Pedroia deal was actually the first trade, but whatever.  In any event, I agree with my co-author, this was a decent haul for a pitcher that likely wasn't going to get kept.  It's also a positive sign that the juggernaut that Alex assembled over the past two years is being torn apart; they're still probably one of the pre-draft favorites, but hemorrhaging Lee, Ryan Zimmerman and some others certainly helps us all out.  (El Angelo)

Suicide by Jaguar

• Traded Bret Lawrie, 3B, Toronto and pick #52 to Paging Dr. Rumack for Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City and pick #14

• Traded pick #36 to Quoth the Jennings for Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee and pick #80

I am so, so thankful that the Mailbox Rule invalidated the other possible trade involving this team, because I haven't the foggiest idea how we would have analyzed it. I think it involved 6 draft picks over two years, a couple of collateralized debt obligations, and the swap of three hairs from the mane of a unicorn for a picture of a smiling Mike D'Antoni.

Anyway, back to the trade that actually happened. It's tough to argue with an OF top-2 of Braun and Matt Holliday. The move to add a 4-slot player cost the team some pitching depth, but the free keep of Shelby Miller in a prospect slot offsets that a little bit. The team has done a good job adding talent, although it's going to be ugly watching them try to fill all three middle IF slots (C, 2B, SS) in this draft. (Teddy)

First: awesome team name.  If you haven't read that obituary, do so now.

As to the trade itself, it's a no-brainer for this team, because the keepers they would have held on to weren't particularly interesting and at worst, Braun will be flippable at the deadline for a pick no worse than the one they gave up here.  Of course, trying to gauge the relative strength of third rounds from year to year is borderline impossible, though that doesn't mean we won't do a pointless column trying to do so in July.  (El Angelo)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Traded pick #27 to The Moon Colonists for Drew Storen, RP, Washington and picks #79 and 86 

• Traded Joba Chamberlain, DL, New York (AL) to Jeters Never Prosper for Bruce Chen, SP, Kansas City

Are we being trolled? I think we're being trolled. A preseason trade of future Hoverround owner Joba Chamberlain for future sports bar owner Bruce Chen (try the potstickers!). That's like trading a slap to the nuts for a kick in the shins. (Teddy)

I'm trying to think of a more pointless trade in fantasy history.  Nothing's coming to mind.  Nice swag on Storen, BTW.  (El Angelo)

Jeters Never Prosper

• Traded Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta and Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Milwaukee to death to the west for Mike Napoli, C, Texas

• Traded Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas, and picks #58 and 106 to Paging Dr. Rumack for picks #26, 74 and 98

• Traded Bruce Chen, SP, Kansas City to Le Dupont Torkies for Joba Chamberlain, Tubbo, New York (AL) 

• Traded pick #98 and Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota to Westish Harpooners for picks #54 and 90

Trolling aside, I think these guys are your big winners of the preseason. Once you cancel out all of the various moves, you see that they essentially got paid for the privilege of improving at catcher. Losing Kinsker hurts, but there wasn't really much to be done on that front. As with TSA, these guys only ended up dumping one starter off of a money-winning team, which is a neat trick.

The Jeter keep? Less so. (Teddy)

It's precisely what we've come to expect from from Jakob--fabulous trade work followed by some erratic actions on the keeper and drafting front.  Snaring Napoli basically for free and adding a 3rd rounder for the right to not keep Kinsler is a great job.  It's a little less clear to me why they kept an ancient shortstop and injured outfielder over Brian Wilson and John Danks, but snaring a top-3 catcher offsets a lot of that silliness.  (El Angelo)

Westish Harpooners

• Traded pick #44 to Quoth the Jennings for Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado 

• Traded picks #54 and 90 to Jeters Never Prosper for Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota and pick #98

My post teardown roster was hilariously bad, so I saw no option but to buy some legitimate players. The hope is that those players, plus my 3 Top-20 picks, will yield a competitive team this year. If not, I re-re-flip Tulo to a contender and try again next year with 3 more high picks. (Teddy)

Enough teams that are going to struggle to compete this year are all loading up on +many slot guys that come June, there may be a slew of players available that can radically improve a roster.  It'll be fun to see whether this leads to a buyer's or seller's market at the end of the day.  (El Angelo)

Big Damn Heroes

• Traded picks #37 and 121 to The Moon Colonists for Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston, Jason Motte, RP, St. Louis and pick #131.

• Traded pick #71 to Paging Dr. Rumack for Jordan Walden, RP, Anaheim and pick #134

So this team will have Pedroia and (almost assuredly) Hanley up the middle, plus three real closers? I guess the hiatus is over. (Teddy)

Smile a little: they're the only team that didn't keep a first baseman--and there are very few good ones available in the draft--and their only kept starter is Max Scherzer's trick elbow.  This isn't to say that they aren't in fine shape to build a competitor this year, but there's still a lot of work to do in the draft.  (El Angelo)

death to the west

• Traded Mike Napoli, C, Texas to Jeters Never Prosper for Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta and Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Milwaukee

• Traded Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston, picks #31, 77 and 113 and their first round pick in 2013 to The Moon Colonists for Albert Pujols, 1B, Anaheim (that was odd to write) and Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle

Taken as a whole, I love the Pujols trade unconditionally, just because it's fun. But from d2daw's perspective, it leaves a little to be desired, mostly because of the other moving parts. Why insist on including Dustin Ackley if you don't want to keep him? Just take a pick back instead (or don't give another pick up). In fact, the smalls managed to accumulate three different players they didn't want in these two trades. That is . . . not ideal.

Of course, it might not matter. The team still has a real option at C, and possibly the two best players in fantasy in Pujols and Jose Bautista, plus post-Mets bounce lock Jose Reyes and 5 (!) strong SPs. But I don't see the value in raising the degree of difficulty before the season even starts. (Teddy)

The only real quibble is with the Napoli deal, which was completely pointless.  If you were happy keeping Avila--a perfectly defensible position--at a minimum, you can just let Napoli go back into the pool and have someone waste a first round pick on him.  Or hunted around a bit more, because someone would have given up a top-20 pick for Napoli.  (El Angelo)

The Moon Colonists

• Traded Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston, Jason Motte, RP, St. Louis and pick #131 to Big Damn Heroes for picks #37 and 121.

• Traded Drew Storen, RP, Washington and picks #79 and 86 to Le Dupont Torkies for pick #27.

• Traded Jose Valverde, RP, Detroit to Wu Tang Financial for pick #40.

• Traded Albert Pujols, 1B, Anaheim and Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle to death to the west for Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston, picks #31, 77 and 113 and their first round pick in 2013.

Here's some wisdom for you: it's very difficult to analyze a team with only four players. Additional pro tip: it's even harder when three of those players won't be on the roster by the end of the year. (Teddy)

Don't count me out--I see no reason I can't draft 19 useful players and make a run at it this year.  The pre-draft favorites appear to be someone who has never finished in the money and a guy who voluntarily kept Derek Jeter; I am not exactly scared off by the competition just yet.  (El Angelo)

Wu Tang Financial

• Traded pick #40 to The Moon Colonists for Jose Valverde, RP, Detroit

I like the trade just fine, given how early closers go in this league. But I just have to note that this franchise is absolutely snakebit--one of their keepers in dying of gangrene after snapping a tendon while making the last out of the World Series, and another just got drilled in the wrist by a pitch. Someone warn Valverde not to go outside during full moons as long as he's on this roster. (Teddy)

If Valverde was available in the draft, he would go in the 13-18 range, so if you discount the one year you can't keep him and the keeper slot lost, this seems like pretty fair value, especially when your other potential keeper was hockey phenom Clayton Richard.  (El Angelo)

Quoth the Jennings

• Traded Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado to Westish Harpooners for pick #44 

• Traded Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee and pick #80 to Suicide by Jaguar for pick #36

This is the team I'm most looking forward to following in the draft. They kept the maximum number of keepers, and have at least one and maybe two playable prospects. As a result, they have nominal starters at just about every position. That should make their orgy of second round picks almost completely unpredictable. Hell, there's a chance they just take the Blue Jays' entire Opening Day roster for giggles. (Teddy)

They tried this strategy two years ago and it didn't pan out particularly well, despite drafting McCann and Heyward early on.  But I applaud the stubbornness, just on general principle.  (El Angelo)

Paging Dr. Rumack

• Traded Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City and pick #14 to Suicide by Jaguar for Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto and pick #52

• Traded Jordan Walden, RP, Anaheim and pick #134 to Big Damn Heroes for pick #71

• Traded picks #26, 74 and 98 to Jeters Never Prosper for Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas, and picks #58 and 106

Along with JNP, this is one of the few teams to have both bought and sold during the pre-keeper period. The result is a really, really volatile set of keepers. Posey/Lawrie/Bruce/Jennings are all young and all have flashed glints of great things. But none of them has done it for a full year (not even Posey, who didn't get called up until partway through the season in 2010). With a shallower but more stable pair of SPs, it will be interesting to see whether these guys use their first pick to add depth at pitcher, or cover for their risky youngsters in the field. (Teddy)

 

 This is the most fun keeper list that we have, because as my co-author noted, it's a high variance with a lot of fun young players.  The only real criticism I have is the Hosmer-Lawrie trade; while I have no issue with swapping young players, the pick differential seemed off to me.  I have no clue which of those players is better to keep, and will guess that nobody else does either; paying a premium for Lawrie just seemed odd to me.  But otherwise, nice job.  (El Angelo