Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme: Post Position Draw

The field of 20 has been set and the post positions have been drawn. For the first time since 1997, the post draw for the Derby was done completely at random. From 1997 to 2009, the draw was televised and included trainers/owners picking where they wanted their horses to start from. Watching fat white guys pick numbers made for some of the least gripping television that didn't include Stephen A. Smith, which is the main reason they scrapped it. But there's another reason they scrapped it:

Post. Position. Does. Not. Matter. Much.

Since favorite Lookin at Lucky drew the rail and second choice Sidney's Candy drew the 20 post (of 20), expect there to be a cavalcade of articles on how injurious these draws were, as nobody's won the Derby from Post 1 since Ferdinand and only one horse (Big Brown) has won from the far outside in the last half century. Believe none of them. Here's the historic breakdown of post positions and wins since 1990:

1 – 12
2 – 9
3 – 8
4 – 10
5 – 12
6 – 6
7 – 8
8 – 10
9 – 4
10 – 10
11 – 3
12 – 3
13 – 4
14 – 2
15 – 3
16 – 3
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 0
20 - 2

That stat shows that the inside is better, but that's because it includes a lot of Derbies that didn't have a ton of horses. So let's only look at the last 40 years.

1 – 1
2 – 4
3 – 4
4 – 1
5 – 3
6 – 1
7 – 3
8 – 5
9 – 1
10 – 7
11 – 1
12 – 2
13 – 2
14 – 0
15 – 2
16 – 3
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 0
20 - 1

What we see if that somehow #17 and #19 have been shut out (again, presumably partially because many fields didn't have over 16 horses) while #1, 4, 6, 9 and 11 have only one win. Is this because those spots are cursed? No. It's blind luck where a horse draws, and by chance, #5, 7, 8 and 10 have outdrawn those posts over the last 4 decades. We can't recall a trainer ever saying after a race "we lost because of the draw." There's a reason for that--it almost never happens.

Additionally, it's worth remembering that a horse's post position can change up to post time if there's a pre-race scratch. Last year, I Want Revenge was #13 and scratched, moving all from #14 to #20 up a notch. Did their movement change the race outcome? Not at all.

So let's give this meme an 8 because it's race related but dead wrong. Try again kids.