Season Preview: Spreading Santorum

It's that time of the year again, where we look at last year's results and this year's draft and try to figure out what the hell is going to happen next year.  Yep, it's season preview time.  Some gems from the last two years:

• "I forecast another middle of the pack finish unless a big move is made come June." --Teddy on Jeters Never Prosper, who finished in 3rd and did little in the transactions column all year.

• " Do you want to bet against a repeat? Didn't think so." --Me on Le Dupont Torkies in 2010, who never really competed.

• "A clear team to watch for next year" --Me on The Little Green One in 2010.

• " If this team can snag another bat in the outfield and another good starter sometime before the All-Star Break and avoid the injury bug, they'll compete for a spot in the money." --Me on Jeters Never Prosper in 2010, who finished in a boring 6th.

And then there's our annual butchery of Will's teams, which we never get right.  So let's start with Mr. Sweater Vest's Team.  Will's squads have seemingly fallen into that same trap that the Houston Rockets and San Diego Chargers have hit: good enough to be competitive but never bad enough to do a full-scale rebuild.  The last three years have seen two fourth place and one fifth place finish with solid point totals each year.  Clearly they're not far off from competing, but they haven't cashed a check since 2006*.  How do they look this year?

*Check out how this team finished in second in 2006.  This team lost by a point and a half via a group of contributors that put up stat lines that look incomprehensible today.  I mean, Garret Atkins with a .406 OBP, 117 R and 120 RBIs?  46 dingers for Soriano?  Carlos Delgado's and Ryan Freel's last good seasons?  15+ wins each from Derek Lowe Face, Bad Penny, Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang?  This almost looks like a season generated on a PS3.

Infield

Any infield that starts with Miguel Cabrera can't be all bad, and Cabrera's potential to gain third base eligibility--assuming he can stand upright at the position for more than a week--aids this team greatly, because World Series hero David Freese is not a starting fantasy player.  It's after Cabrera that it starts to get curious.  I like Miguel Montero as a fantasy backstop and Elvis Andrus is a fine "do no harm" shortstop--he'll get you steals while doing little in either direction in the remaining categories.  Which is good, because Dan Uggla threatens to submarine this team's OBP, or more likely, simply offset the entire good that Cabrera brings.

What this means is that this team has a slightly above-average infield plus whatever they get out of first base from May through September.  If somehow Justin Smoak can show that he's actually any good, this will be a strength.  If they're forced to use Cuddyer or the waiver wire at first, however, this is not an area that will catapult this team to victory.

Outfield

Nelson Cruz and Michael Bourn give you The Power Guy and The Speed Guy, meaning you need a couple of just good all-around players to make this a solid outfield.  Unfortunately, the Vomiting Kennedys have turned to The Ancient Guy (Torii Hunter), The Spreadsheets Guy (Chris Young) and The Never Was Guy (Delmon Young) to round out the positions once Cuddyer moves to first base.  Planning on that troika to take you to glory is planning to fail.

Starting Pitching

There's a lot of guys that I like on this staff, which probably portends well.  Ricky Romero isn't thought of as a top-shelf starter by most, but I absolutely love him this year, with the only caveat that playing 1/3 of your games against the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox may inflate the rate stats.  Ervin Santana and Derek Holland are both guys I like who at worst will win a bunch of 8-5 games, which cannot hurt too badly.  Bud Norris is a good pitcher on a bad team, and even Jonathan Sanchez is someone I think is sitting on a bounceback season.  The staff is not laden with aces, but it's better than it looks at first blush.

Relievers

Willfredo got the draft off the closer schneid by taking Heath Bell, the new closer for the Neon Tropical Nightmares.  While I share some of my co-author's concerns about Bell in the long-term, I actually like him this year to rack up 30 saves on a decent team, which is not to be sneezed at.  This team also has three guys currently slated to close (League, Bailey & Marmol), but the best pitcher in the pen is probably Mike Adams, who won't close until Joe Nathan's arm falls off.  Regardless, this is one of the better pens in the league.

Outlook

This may have been the wrong team to lead off the previews because it's tough to judge them in context.  They lack superstar power--it's basically Cabrera and a lot of good/very good players--but also lack utter craptitude at any position except first base once Smoak takes over.  It strikes me as a team that's an elite hitter and starter away from the money.  Fortunately for them, there will probably be a few sellers this year.