Monday, April 9, 2012

Seaons Preview: 2012 Predicatron

Once again, we canvassed the league for predictions, asking everyone to rank the teams 1 through 12.  We turned that into an AP-style poll, awarding 12 points for a team that was picked to finish first, 11 for second, all the way down to 1 for last.  Eight of you were kind enough to respond.  We then tallied it up, and the results are below with our commentary.

We're including this year a side note of which teams received first place votes, and for shits and giggles, which teams received DAFL votes.  I'll note that only one owner picked his team to finish in first or last.  So let's get to it, yes Teddy?  (El Angelo)

I'm sorry, I'm still cringing in horror at having picked up Vicente Padilla because he's the only Red Sox reliever with an ERA under 10 at this point in the season. So pardon me if my comments are a bit shell-hocked. (Teddy)

Tier 3: Michelle Bachmann Division

12.  Spreading Santorum (28 pts, 1 DAFL vote)

The one person who's jumping up and down at this prediction is Corey, who already has Will's first round pick for 2013.  Anyone know if it's lottery-protected?  (El Angelo)

We already know that this franchise zigs when the rest of the league thinks they are going to zag, so we might as well start inscribing the team's name on the championship cup now. Mark it down. (Teddy)

11.  Le Dupont Torkies (30 pts, 2 DAFL votes)

One of the reasons I wanted to include the DAFL voets was so that Tucker could see that there were two disbelievers amongst us, and vow to lay waste to the remainder of the league when he coaxes a 4th place finish out of this squad.  (El Angelo)

Yeah, I don't quite get the DAFL votes here. Has this owner ever torn it down? Because that's what it takes to come in last. Opening Day weaknesses don't really correlate to end-of-season last place finishes. (Teddy)

10.  The Moon Colonists (32 pts, 2 DAFL votes)

Coupled with the 2 DAFL picks were a pair of picks that were a lot closer to the top of the league than the bottom.  Rightly, I think at least 2 owners picked me for lower on the assumption that I have some pretty obvious sell-off candidates and may sink like a stone come August.  (El Angelo)

See, that's what I mean. If you think this team won't compete, the DAFL vote makes sense because you KNOW the owner will tear it down--witness his 19-point finishing totals in not one but two past years. I almost hope that's the way it goes, because I'd love to see what Ang would do with 3-4 first round picks. What's the earliest Mr. Met has ever been drafted? (Teddy)

9.  Quoth the Jennings (37 pts, 1 DAFL vote)

I didn't get a chance to add to Teddy's post on this team's preview, but I was actually guessing that the team name emanates from Jeopardy whiz and noted cartographer, Ken Jennings.  Given the name, I think Corey wanted to emulate Jennings and return to college here to earn an advanced degree in mapmaking.  (El Angelo)

See, that would make more sense, because I can absolutely see Mormon Ken perched on a bust of Pallas. The Mormons don't get to perch on too many other busts, even if they make a million dollars on Jeopardy!, so they have to take what they can get. (Teddy)

8.  Wu Tang Financial (40 pts, 2 DAFL votes)

The predictions here don't quite rise to the level of boom or bust because nobody picked them to finish in the money, but it's close: three people have them coming in 4th, while two have them finishing in last.  In the end, that averaged out to 9th, which somewhat coincidentally (maybe?) is about where the other 3 entries had them slotted.  (El Angelo)

There aren't really enough high-slot guys around to sell off for a DAFL. I think some of those votes were just down to habit. Which, to be fair, has had a fair bit of time to become ingrained by now. (Teddy)

Tier 2: Newt Gingrich Division

7.  Big Damn Heroes (49 pts, 1 first place vote)

The first squad to get multiple people to pick him to finish in the money, this is another boom-or-bust, as the first and second place vote are offset by a 10th and 11th place vote.  It's too bad someone didn't augment their picks by one so this team could actually have both a first and last place vote.  (El Angelo)

Well, this team has pretty much only ever come in first or last, so the schizophrenia makes some sense. But it is sort of jarring to see the two most successful all-time franchises projected for second-division finishes this year. (Teddy)

6.  Suicide by Jaguar (55 pts, 1 first place vote)

Half the league picked this team to come in either 6th or 7th, presumably on the theory that past performance is, in fact, indicative of future results.  (El Angelo)

Honestly, I pretty much drew straws for all the slots from 3-10. I'm starting to think that the rest of the league followed suit. (Teddy)

T4.  Westish Harpooners (56 pts)

One of two squads that nobody picked to win or come in last, or for that matter, nobody picked to come in the top two or bottom two.  I love Teddy to pieces, but I'm not really sure how he got to this ranking, other than by default.  The roster doesn't really say "going for it" and I would think he'd be active in the trade market come July to build for 2013.  But hey, whaddo I know?  (El Angelo)

We've done this AP exercise for three years, and I've been projected to finish 4th, 5th, and now T4th. I think I have a pretty good idea of what the rest of the league thinks of me: good, but not good enough. There is an unsettling amount of truth in that. (Teddy)

T4.  Paging Dr. Rumack (56 pts)

The other squad that has no first or DAFL vote.  I suppose given that he, Teddy and Andy are separated by a mere one point is just noise, and if they finish in 6th, the league wouldn't have been "wrong", per se.  (El Angelo)

It's tough to adjust projections to account for the fact that this group will be frantically trying to drop back past each other at the end of the season. This could look like the start of an Olympic cycling match:

Tier 1: Mitt Romney Division

3. death to the west (77 pts, 1 first place vote)

Nobody has picked this team to finish worse than 5th, which shows you the strength of the roster, given that they've only finished better than 5th once.  Well, I guess the Rays sucked until 2008 too, right?  (El Angelo)

New blood! Kind of cool, especially given that this only leaves...

2.  The Spam Avengers (78 pts, 1 first place vote)

Again, the difference between Alex and Ironhead strikes me mostly as noise.  I will say that this team hemorrhaged enough talent from the last two winning squads that if one of the top three was going to falter, this is the one I would pick.  But he's won twice in a row, how much do you want to bet against?  (El Angelo)

Dude, we've all bet against him--that's the point of the league. (Teddy)

1.  Jeters Never Prosper (86 pts, 4 first place votes)

Six of the eight entries have this guy in first or second.  The highest possible score you can accumulate in this methodology is 98, and last year's winner only received 85 points, making this an even stronger favorite.  No pressure. (El Angelo)

I have to say, that level of unanimity surprises me, especially because I think just about everyone saw last  year's edition of TSA as a buzzsaw. I think the muddle in the middle better represents the state of the league this year than this apparent separation at the top. That said, I think my preview made pretty clear that I think this is one of the teams to beat. (Teddy)

No comments: