Let's get this show on the road!
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Nobiz Like Shobiz: Owns a pair of wins at 9 furlongs, including Saturday's Wood Memorial. Biggest question isn't breeding, it's maturity, as he's a horse that may not like being surrounded by 150,000 people at Churchill Downs, though he looked very professional in the Wood. He should get a much better trip in the Derby behind some actual pace, something he didn't see in the Wood.
Notional: Second to Scat Daddy in the Florida Derby, this horse may get lost in the shuffle come May 5th, despite having a nice pedigree, solid connections, and a good win in the Louisiana Derby. There's some head scratching about his failure to really finish strongly in Florida, but if he's 15-1 in the Derby, you're crazy to not use him a little.
Any Given Saturday: Was my top Derby contender going into the Wood, where he faded to an uninspiring 3rd behind Nobiz and Sightseeing (below) at 3-2. It's not the fact he lost that's troubling, it's the fact that he faded in his first venture past 1 1/16 miles. He's by Distorted Humor, who did sire 2003 winner Funny Cide, but is a miler at heart. Have to wonder if we've already seen how far he can go.
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Cowtown Cat: Winner of the Illinois Derby, he's the third Todd Pletcher horse in this category. (Don't worry, there are more to come.) What's most notable is the fact his name is god-awful, despite him costing well over a million smackeroos at auction. If you think enough of a horse to pay a small fortune for him, can't you give him a real name?
One more to go, is it enough?
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Great Hunter: He's also trying to do it off two starts, but in his defense, he ran 7 times last year, which is a ton this day in age. Looked great in winning the Lewis (which Tiago ran a well-beaten 7th in), have to think he's a top contender.
This never works, but what the hell...
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Curlin: This guy's overcoming not only the curse of Apollo (last horse to win the Derby without starting as a two-year old, in the fricking Cleveland Administration), the Arkansas Derby (his prep) will he his third start. THIRD! That's insane! This horse is immensely talented, but I'm half hoping he throws in a relative clunker at Oaklawn to preserve him for the spring.
The sleeper
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Are we even going?
Hard Spun: He's undefeated when he's not running at Oaklawn, and the good news is the Kentucky Derby isn't at Oaklawn. The bad news is they're considering not running him anyway, and may point for the vaunted Lexington/Preakness double. Wow, that's ambitious.
Sightseeing: He ran 2nd to Nobiz Like Shobiz on Saturday, but has still only one won race, and Shug McGaughey seems inclined to pass on the Derby and point either for the Preakness or a summer campaign. While discretion is the better part of valor, it's worth noting that Jazil had an almost identical race record last year, and ran 4th in the Derby before winning the Belmont. (Of course, he hasn't done jackshit since then, but flags fly forever, or whatever the horse equivalent of a flag is.)
Chelokee: His 3rd in the Florida Derby was tremendous, as he was blocked by traffic in the stretch, costing him a least 2nd. The problem is while Mike Matz of Barbaro fame wants to run him in the Derby, his graded earnings aren't going to be enough if there are 20 horses. Bah.
We're running for third place!
Zanjero: Spanish for clunker. This guy's a great bet to hit the board at 50-1.
Sam P.: Pletcher's fifth-stringer who was blah in Santa Anita. Pass.
Deadly Dealer: Pletcher's sixth-stringer. He can be the next Coin Silver with some luck. Who's Coin Silver? Precisely.
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Officer Rocket: Every year Bob Holthus tries to suck us in with one of these Arkansas horses, and they never EVER do anything. Don't be fooled.
Coming up this Saturday are the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. By next week, we'll have a slightly different perspective on the above, but probably not that much different. At this point, to some degree, you are what you are.
5 comments:
All of the above may be true, Angelo, but who is THE WHEEL on???
As a card-carrying smartass, union rules obligate me to root for any horse whose name includes the word "scat". I predict that he'll win by 4 lengths, and that the drunken track announcer will complete his call of the race by saying that "there was just too much Scat out there today."
this is the best baseball fantasy blog about horse racing i've ever seen. I like the preview.
Why is there a picture posted of someone's junk on a building?
I'll Take the Dominican/ Nobiz like Showbiz exacta.. although with that being said, I have never faired well in Derby handicapping!
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