2015 Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The Upper Crust

Click here for Part 1 of our preview.

If you haven't heard elsewhere, this year's crop of three year olds portends to be a good one.  Bill Finley, who is usually cranky about this sort of thing, has said this is the best Derby field ever, topping one that included Secretariat, Forego and Sham.  Mike Watchmaker, who generally thinks every horse since Easy Goer is a dog, has compared two of the entrants to Seattle Slew and Affirmed.  Dick Jerardi, who has never seen a horse outside of Pennsylvania that he's actually liked, thinks this is the fastest crop of horses in ages.

We're tapping the brakes a little bit on these plaudits.  We're not sure there are multiple Hall of Fame horses in this race - hell, if we had one, that would be neat.  But this does look like an above average group of horses.  The best have run pretty fast in the prep races, have good breeding, and have avoided the injury bug.  This isn't 2008, where everyone besides Big Brown looked terrible, or 2009, where everyone got hurt and left the field wide open for an upset.  This looks like the best group we've seen since 2007, which included Curlin, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun.

Our biggest takeaway from that Hot Take is that we're less inclined to back horses that don't check off a lot of the traditional boxes for Derby contenders.  Big Brown won the Derby off 3 starts because his competitors were garbage. Giacomo and Mine That Bird took the race because there were only 1-2 good horses in the race.  This isn't the case this year.  If you're a horse with flaws, you're going to need to overcome them and beat 5-7 horses that would be good choices most years.  Which is why we're not picking...

This Would Defy History

10.  Mubtaahij.  We've said it many times before and will say it again - the first horse from the UAE Derby that wins the Kentucky Derby will come at our expense.  This guy's a little more interesting than the prior winners because he won the UAE Derby on dirt (rather than synthetic) and is trained by Mike de Kock, who's great in South Africa but almost never comes to the USA.  But still - he's traveling half the world to take on better bred horses that have run on US tracks against better competition.  And there's chatter he'll be the 4th choice in the race (ignore his 20-1 morning line price, that's just wishful thinking).  No thanks.

9.  Materiality.  And then there's the Curse of Apollo.  We're getting to the point where we can write the same copy every year.  Or just point you to our takes on Verrazano, Bodemeister, Curlin, and Dunkirk.  In fact, this horse is Dunkirk version 2.0 - a well-bred Pletcher 3 year old with no juvenile experience but oozes potential.  We were impressed by his win in the Florida Derby, and we'd consider deviating from the Curse of Apollo in a less talented year.  But this year?  Not interested.

Not Out of It, But We're Against

8.  Frosted.  Beware the Horse for the Course.  It's a well-known fact that some horses like some tracks better than others and run their best races at certain locales.  Well, here's Exhibit A, a horse that has 2 wins and a second on Aqueduct's main track, but is winless elsewhere in 4 starts.  More problematically, he never came close in two Florida starts against logical contender...

7.  Upstart.  ...who we acknowledge has a shot but we're not loving in this spot.  This New York-bred dominated his first start then won a state-bred race handily in a very fast time.  Trainer Rick Violette - who we've always liked - aggressively pointed him to the Champagne and BC Juvenile, where he ran 2nd and 3rd respectively, running pretty well both times, but never really threatening the winners.  After a good Holy Bull to start out this year, he ran a DQ'd-into-2nd in the Fountain of Youth, then a beaten 2nd in the Florida Derby.  More importantly, his speed figures have stagnated in his last two races.

So was he just ahead of the class early last year?  There are some interesting excuses in each of his last two races, but the bottom line is that he hasn't developed as the distances have gotten longer.  To top it off, he missed training time last month with an illness.  While the connections say he's back in shape and he's worked out fine, we're not in love with horses that come in to the Derby with any hiccups.

6.  Dortmund.  He's undefeated, has won a pair of Grade 1 races, and has beaten some pretty good horses.  And he could win easily on Saturday and prove us wrong.  But we've got a couple of concerns.  First, his running style is on or close to the lead.  Now this is great in 5-7 horse races where you can control the tempo and take racing luck out of the equation.  But we don't see that as the case here because there is a TON of speed in this race - we expect that all of Materiality, Ocho Ocho Ocho, and 1-2 others will want to go fast early.  If he chases all of them, he's going to be in a world of trouble.  It's a little reminiscent of Bellamy Road in 2005, who came in off a world-beater front running performance in the Wood, and was absolutely fried after 6 furlongs.  Dortmund may fall into that same trap.

Second, and a bit more esoteric, we join many people's concern that this horse is, well, too big.  The horse is 17 hands high and while powerful, isn't the most manuverable horse because of his size.  There is something to be said for being a steed that won't get knocked around by the rigors of the race but there's also something to be said for a horse that can adjust quickly if he gets in trouble.

Look, we acknowledge we could be dead wrong and that this guy may turn out to be a blossoming star.  He's never lost, isn't poorly bred, and looked great in the Santa Anita Derby.  He's trained by Bob Baffert, who's second to none when it comes to the Derby.  But we're concerned that we're seeing another horse that has looked better than he is because he's repeatedly gotten easy leads that have allowed him to control the pace.  That certainly won't be the case on Saturday.  We think he challenges early but isn't in the picture at the end.

Prices With a Shot

5.  Bolo.  Our longshot du jour has a bit of an interesting background.  He's obscurely bred - his sire Temple City was barely known to us beforehand, and Chief Seattle isn't exactly a fashionable damsire - but the breeding actually isn't bad for the dirt or the distance.  He ran his first three races on the turf as a 2yo and did well, winning a maiden and ungraded stakes.  Off a short break, trainer Carla Gaines (who's not bad) switched him to the dirt and threw him to the wolves in the San Felipe, where he ran greenly but still closed to a decent 3rd behind Dortmund.  He regressed a little bit in the Santa Anita Derby, but seems posed to move forward in his third start of the year.  And he has some tactical speed but we think will probably close into the strong pace.  We think he's a bit unlikely to actually win the race, but has a big shot to hit the board at 40-1.

4.  Firing Line.  When an owner spends $240,000 at auction for a horse out of a completely unproven sire (Line of David) by an unknown damsire, either he's a lunatic or the horse can run.  Fortunately for Arnold Zetcher, it's the latter, as this modestly bred colt has never finished out of the exacta and won his last start by a whopping 14 lengths.  More impressively, he fought Dortmund twice and lost both races by a mere head.  Dortmund is going to be 3-1; Firing Line is going to be 15-1.  You can guess where our interest is.

So why are we ranking him here?  His running style.  We've hinted at it throughout this preview, but we think the pace is going to be strong and may cook everyone near it.  That may well include this guy, who's done his best running within a length of the lead.  Jockey Gary Stevens is one of the best ever and may try to rate him off the strong pace, and the 10 post certainly puts that possibility in play.  Our guess is he rates just a little off the pace but doesn't have enough to pass or hold off the remaining four horses.

3.  International Star. The best closer in the race happens to actually be a halfway decent horse, rather than your standard closer with 3rd-place-itis.  He spent his winter in Louisiana - hey, there are worse ideas - sweeping the Fairgrounds races with three come from behind victories.  He's blossomed since turning into a one-run closer and this race presents the perfect opportunity to continue this tradition, since the pace should be at worst honest, and possibly blistering.  Yes he's a little slow on the Speed Figures, but his running style fits the race shape.  We look to see him closing late, but think he's ultimately a minor threat to the top 2.

The Obvious Favorite

2.  American Pharoah.  While we think any of the top 8 horses could win this race, this one is the most likely to develop into a superstar.  After a poor maiden race, Bob Baffert threw him into a Grade 1  where he responded by wiring the field at 7 furlongs and winning easily.  His next win in the Front Runner was absolutely dominating, and in it he defeated eventual BC Juvenile winner Texas Red with ease.  After time off for a minor injury, he shipped to Arkansas and won both the Rebel and Arkansas Derby with absolute ease.  He has tactical speed (though is not an uncontrollable speedball or committed front runner), should have the pedigree to make 10 furlongs, and jockey Victor Espinoza knows a thing or two about winning Triple Crown races.

Our biggest concern is that his speed figures are inflated because he's had perfect trips in all 4 wins and has never had a serious obstacle in his path.  He towered over his competition in his last two starts; they were essentially paid workouts.  It's hardly uncommon for a horse to run career best speed figures when he gets easy trips and no real competition in the stretch.  So while the possibility of stardom is here, so is the possibility of a regression.  At 5-2, we're wary of picking against, but prefer...

The Pick

1.  Carpe Diem.  Greatness has been expected from this horse for over a year and so far he's done little to dissuade people from the notion that he might be special.  This spectacularly bred son of Giant's Causeway sold for $1.6 million as a two year old, and made his first start at Saratoga, where he won at 5 1/2 furlongs over Ready for Rye, a useful sprinter.  He stretched out to two turns for his second start and utterly dominated the BC Futurity at Keeneland - other than American Pharoah's Front Runner, it's probably the best performance by a horse in this field (sorry, Dortmund fans).  He ran an okay second in the BC Juvenile; this year he's easily won the Tampa Bay and Bluegrass Derbies.  In both races he showed tactical speed, made a good move on the turn and drew off in the stretch while never really being asked.

There are basically two knocks against him.  The first are his relatively low speed figures.  We're less concerned about those because we don't think Pletcher or Velazquez have asked this guy for his best race yet this year.  It's very reminiscent of how Pletcher also managed Super Saver in 2010, who had two useful races before the Derby that hardly indicated dominance, but was primed to go on the big day.  The bigger knock is drawing the 2-post.  We don't love it, but don't think it's a big enough negative to downgrade him from the top slot.  We think he makes a huge leap forward on Saturday, sits an okay trip off the strong pace, and runs down American Pharoah in a memorable Derby.

How to Play the Race

If you like anyone besides American Pharoah and Dortmund, just play him to win!  Carpe Diem is the likely third choice and we suspect he'll be at least 6-1.  There's nothing sexy about win betting, but there's sure nothing wrong with a 600% or higher return on investment.  If you're looking to boost the price, we recommend playing International Star, Bolo and Firing Line "underneath" in exactas and triples, or looking at the Oaks-Derby double that's available on Friday.  (We like Eskenformoney, Stellar Wind, and Puca in the Oaks.) And by all means, please ignore the superfecta.

Good luck to all and enjoy the race!!

2015 Kentucky Derby Preview Part I: The Underclass

Post positions have been drawn, jockeys have been announced, and the morning line has been set.  It's Kentucky Derby week, which means it's time for our annual preview.  Let's start today off with a look at the bottom half of the field, the 10 horses that do not particularly enamor us.  We are ignoring also-eligibles Tale of Verve (who we literally never heard about until 12 noon Wednesday) and Frammento; we recommend you do likewise.  As always, we're assuming the track is fast and relatively unbiased.

Wow, Our Owners Got Great Seats!

20.  Ocho Ocho Ocho.  For the honor of Worst Name of a Kentucky Derby Winner, this guy would give Mine That Bird, Lil E. Tee and Burgoo King a run for their money.

19.  War Story.  His running lines from 4 of his 5 starts include the comments "off bit slow," "hesitated start" and "flattened".  These are not the sort of notes that portend greatness.

18.  Keen Ice.  The definition of a plodder, he has no tactical speed, no fast turn of foot, and no closing spurt.  Also, he's only finished better than third once in his career and has been thrashed by 7 other opponents in this race.  Other than those flaws, he looks stunning.

17.  Stanford.  His best strategy appears to be go for the early lead and try to hold on for dear life.  That hasn't worked in smaller fields against lesser competition at shorter distances, so sure, let's give it a go against 19 of the best three year olds in the country at the longest distance he'll ever run.

16.  Itsaknockout.  This horse is being oddly cross-promoted with the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight, giving people the chance to bet the rare double between sports that reached their peak of popularity 50 years ago.  As to his merits, he lost his last start by a mere 21 lengths on a track that he appeared to love, and did so against horses we don't particularly care for in the Derby.  We're still in Giacomo-territory here.

15.  Mr. Z.  In his 12(!) career starts, he's been beaten by 10 of the other 19 horses in this race, including this aforementioned Ocho Cubed.  Turning the tables on over half the field seems rather ambitious.

Oh, Why the Hell Not?

14.  Far Right.  Unlike the prior 6 horses, we can make arguments for this next group of horses catching a piece of the superfecta, but are against for a multitude of reasons. Let's start with this guy, who after breaking his maiden toiled around aimlessly in second-tier races. then dropped into third-tier races and found some success.  He tried the big boys in the Arkansas Derby where he second by default and was about a football field behind the winner.  He could clunk up for a piece late, but he's more likely to linger at the back of the pack and finish with the classic running line of "passed tiring horses."

Friend of the blog and Voice of the Derby, Larry Collmus

13.  El Kabeir. This guy would be a hoot and a half to own, because he runs regularly and generally turns in an honest effort, as evidenced by his 8 finishes in the money and banking nearly $800,000 to date.  But his breeding does nothing to suggest that he has any affinity for 10 furlongs, and his two starts in deepest waters (the Champagne last year and Wood Memorial in his last race) were his two worst efforts.  We suspect that this is a miler who's in a bit deep here, and that he'll be very competitive in the King's Bishop and Breeders Cup Dirt Mile later this year.  But not on Saturday.

12.  Danzig Moon. On the one hand, his breeding is good for the distance.  On the other hand, he hasn't been particularly competitive with contender Carpe Diem in their last two meetings.  Back on the first hand, he may be rounding into form and Julian Leparoux is overdue for a Derby win.  Back on the other hand, Mark Casse is consistently a bad bet in these types of races - he's astoundingly good in Canada and astoundingly below par in American graded stakes.  We lean against, but think this guy could be interesting come the summer.

11.  Tencendur. So what do we make of that huge last race speed figure?  It represents a sharp improvement from his prior 4 races, and let's remember that a 3yo horse is very eligible to improve markedly 5 starts into his career.  A repeat of the Wood won't win the Derby, so the question is can he can move forward again?  We're skeptical.  A huge jump in speed figures like his last race is a classic "bounce" pattern where a horse regresses afterwards.  Occasionally, that horse will take another step forward later on, but the regression generally comes first.  And we think that's exactly what happens here - a regression that's a non-threatening middle of the pack finish, while his trainer (the highly underrated George Weaver) scouts out Derbies in Ohio and Oklahoma for him to try this summer.

Coming Up Tomorrow: The Top 10 and our pick.

2014 Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The Upper Half

Within minutes of yesterday's post going up, Hoppertunity, one of the horses we really liked, scratched out of the Derby.  Initially we were upset because we liked him, but truth be told, it actually made our lives easier because we had two horses we thought were a bit ahead of the others.  Now we've got one.  Who is it?  Let's get to the top 9.

Others Like You, But We Don't

9.  Samraat.  He's never been out of the exacta in his six career starts but we're not in love with his chances.  His breeding suggests a mile would be his best distance, and his failure to finish strongly in the Wood Memorial did nothing to dissuade us from feeling that he's not going to love the last furlong of the Derby.  To top it off, he's shown a propensity for running fast early, and there is a good amount of early speed in the race.  We think it burns him out by the far turn and we see him contesting 7 furlong races this summer.

8.  Tapiture.  The horse that nobody in racing wants to see win because he's trained by Steve Asmussen, he of the PETA video and controversy surrounding care for horses.  (We are not going to comment on that here - there are hundreds of others with takes on that video.)  We were high on this horse in early April, as his breeding and connections were good, he had a nice foundation as a 2-year old, a win over the track, a nice win in the Southwest, then a good second in the Rebel to a horse we liked.  We were all set to tout him as one of our preferences for the Derby.

Then he ran in the Arkansas Derby and showed nothing.  Not just that he lost or finished 4th - he came up completely empty in the stretch and showed no resolve to take on the 2nd and 3rd place finishers, much less the winner.  Now horses have rebounded from sub-optimal showings to run well in the Derby.  And we often tout horses that have run below expectations in their prep races as potentially interesting price plays on Derby day, and will do so again below.  But the complete lack of an excuse - trip, track condition, bias, equipment malfunction - leaves us at a loss.  Maybe he's just peaked and is on the wrong side of the curve.  We think that's a lot more likely than his last race is a total toss and he rebounds in a field of 20 horses.

7.  California Chrome. He's won four in a row with good speed figures, has a neat backstory, and is the deserving favorite. Color us unimpressed.  As evidenced by his last few races, he needs to be on or just off the lead; his attempts to rate earlier in his career were disasters.  Flaunting early speed is a winning strategy on the West Coast where the attributes for winning on the dirt are speed, speed, and more speed.  It's very reminiscent of Game on Dude, who has a ton of early speed and good stamina and is deadly when racing in California because his strong speed will lead you to a victory at 10 furlongs.  But when Game on Dude ships out of state to take on top competition or doesn't get a good early lead, he yields late.

So back to California Chrome.  What happens when he ships and now gets a few more speed burners thrown at him, such as the intractable Wildcat Red?  We're pretty confident it means that he folds.  And badly.  This horse has the look of an overrated favorite that retreats back to California afterwards and has a wonderful career of winning millions on the California circuit, but rarely making an impact outside of his home state at the top level.  Just like Game on Dude.

6.  Intense Holiday.  The third horse of Todd Pletcher's quartet, he's the one that's likely to be the shortest price on Derby Day.  He's also the media darling of the week based on his strong workouts, which we think means he'll take a little more money than we originally thought.  But we're unconvinced that he's going to give Pletcher his second blanket of roses.  For one, we don't love the breeding: Harlan's Holiday couldn't get 10 furlongs, and the dam side looks like it leans miler, rather than router.  More importantly, we think he's been unimpressive every time he's run against the best competition.  He ran in a lot of stakes races as a 2yo and was never a factor.  He was similarly never a factor in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream earlier this year.  He did blossom somewhat at Fair Grounds, which leads us to believe he's either a horse for the course or has been beating up on inferior competition.  Either way, we're not particularly interested.

Interesting for Exotics

5.  Uncle Sigh.  It's tough to endorse for the win slot a horse that's never won anything other than a New York state-bred maiden race.  But it's easy to endorse him as a bomb to finish in the superfecta when he's going to be one of the longest shots on the board and has some hidden attributes.  After winning the maiden race, he ran second twice to Samraat in the Withers and Gotham, showing solid speed in both races while taking the worst of a tough trip in the Gotham.  He then had a trip from hell in the Wood, where he broke slowly, was carried very wide on all turns, and had no shot.  We think his Wood is a complete toss-out, and love that he's been working out extremely well at Belmont the last two weeks.  We don't see him as a winner, but more as someone who will be in the mix at the top of the stretch and can hold on for a piece of the money at a huge price.

4.  Ride on Curlin.  Every year there's one or two horses in Triple Crown races that have the pedigree to get 10 furlongs but lack tactical speed, and are perfect fodder for finishing out trifectas and superfectas without ever really threatening the winner.  This year we have Ride on Curlin, who's winless in his 6 stakes appearances but has never finished out of the superfecta.  He's shown a bit more tactical speed in his last few races than he did as a two year old, but we think he'll be a bit further back off the strong Derby pace (sitting 12th or so) followed by a mild rally on the turn and into the stretch.  We don't see him finishing strongly enough to actually win, but given his propensity for passing tiring horses, you'd be crazy to leave him out of the bottom slots of your exotics.

Contenders

3.  Danza.  The fourth horse trained by Todd Pletcher, in his last race he took the Arkansas Derby at a robust 41-1.  Backing a Todd Pletcher horse that comes into the Derby having won his prep race as a longshot has historically been a waste of money.  Here's what happened with Pletcher horses than ran in the Derby after winning their prep race at 15-1 or higher:

Graeme Hall (1999)........14th
Balto Star (2001)............19th
Pollard's Vision (2004)...17th
Flower Alley (2005)........9th
Coin Silver (2005)..........12th
Cowtown Cat (2007).......20th
Monba (2008).................20th
Advice (2009).................13th

Despite being students of history, we're a little higher on Danza than those horses.  The Arkansas Derby was Danza's fourth race; most of those other horses had run more times and indicated less upside.  Danza's past performance lines confirm that Pletcher has had a high opinion of this horse: he broke his maiden first out, ran a good 3rd in a Saratoga stakes race, and was ambitiously placed in the Arkansas Derby off a bad comeback race that was completely excusable based on a long layoff and a track (Gulfstream) that many horses simply don't like.

Now we're not picking him for the top spot because there's a solid chance his Arkansas Derby was a mirage because he did have everything go his way - perfect placement right off the pace, a rail trip, other contenders didn't fire.  But we see upside here, and think that hedging with this guy is a must.  There's an excellent chance he wins right back at a good price (20-1?) and we all leave on Saturday shaking our heads on how we all let a Pletcher horse that had just won a Grade 1 race get away at a big price.

2.  Candy Boy. There's a lot to like here.  He hasn't been out of the money in his last 5 starts, and when he's lost, has done so to some very nice horses - a 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby, a 2nd to 2yo champ Shared Belief, and a 2nd to freak Tap It Rich.  He is going to be closing into a strong pace and has shown enough stretch punch that we think he'll be flying late and we know that Gary Stevens is more than capable of putting together a good ride.  His last race is a bit of a toss for us; trainer John Sadler (who's good) said he's going to be a closer, not a stalker, and it was his first race in two months, giving up recency advantages to California Chrome and Hoppertunity.  We think he moves forward off that start and comes flying late at a solid price (15-1?), but doesn't get to...

The Pick

1.  Wicked Strong.  The ephemera around this horse is excellent.  Jimmy Jerkens is an outstanding trainer; his father Allen Jerkens is one of the great trainers in the annals of horse racing, and Jimmy is owed one after Quality Road didn't make it to the Derby in 2009.  The horse got his name after the Boston Marathon bombing and a portion of his winnings go to charity.  Even if he was a stiff, there are reason to root for him.

Fortunately, he's not a stiff.  After an okay debut, he won his allowance race professionally, then ran an excellent third in the Remsen last November, closing into the slowest pace we've seen in a non-harness race behind two horses (Honor Code and Cairo Prince) that were on everyone's short list for Derby contenders.  His only bad race came next in the Fountain of Youth where he completely no-showed.  Jerkens smartly dropped him into an allowance race where he ran a sneaky good fourth: the track was speed biased to make closing impossible, but he still closed some ground while racing wide and losing to the eventual winner of the Florida Derby (Constitution) and two allowance horses (Mexicoma and Tonalist) who many had as Derby sleepers.  He then shipped to New York for the Wood as a "wise guy" horse, and rewarded backers with a closing victory at 9-1 odds.

He has almost every factor in his favor.  He's a closer in a race that should burn out early speed.  He drew the 19 post which should help him settle back and avoid early traffic trouble and waiting in the gate.  He has good breeding for the distance.  His connections are impeccable.  While he's eligible to regress off the Wood, we think that based on his workouts, he's on the improve and moves forward on Saturday, and takes the Derby at around 6-1.

How to Play the Race

California Chrome should be a good favorite (3-1), so if you like anyone else, bet them to win.  We also think Untapable lays over the field in the Kentucky Oaks, and Wise Dan has only one horse that can beat him in the Woodford Reserve Turf (Bill Mott's horse), so look to the Oaks-Derby double or Oaks-Woodford-Derby pick three with those as your mainstays.  We also like wheeling Wicked Strong over Candy Boy, Ride on Curlin, Danza and Uncle Sigh in exactas.

Good luck and enjoy the race!

2014 Kentucky Derby Preview Part I: The Pretenders

The prep races have been run, the workouts are for the most part completed, the post positions have been drawn, and all the hats have been purchased.  That's right - it's time for the 2014 Kentucky Derby!

For the first time in 6 years, we have a Kentucky Derby with a solid, legitimate favorite.  In prior years, we've been scrambling between a mish-mosh of horses that constituted the "group of favorites" or 2-3 horses that stood out from the field.  But this year, we're going to see California Chrome as a solid favorite on Derby Day, off of his 4 straight wins in California, the last two of which were by widening margins over solid fields.  We haven't had a horse this solidly backed since Big Brown in 2008, and he only romped over the Derby field by open lengths.  California Chrome is 5-2 on the morning line, and we think he'll be near that price come post time.

So is California Chrome a cinch?  Well, let's do our annual Derby preview and see how he stacks up against a fully loaded field.  As always, we'll count down all 20 horses currently in the race - sorry, Pablo del Monte - in reverse order of likelihood that we see them wearing a blanket of roses at 7:00 p.m. on Saturday.  Today we'll deal with the 10 we like the least; tomorrow we'll get to the contenders and make our pick.  As always, these picks are made with the assumption that the track is fast and not absurdly biased on Derby Day.

Isn't Kentucky Lovely In May?

20.  General A Rod.  In one of the odder moves we've seen in recent years, the erstwhile owner of General A Rod solid his entire interest in the horse on Monday to new owners.  It wouldn't be surprising if an owner of a Kentucky Derby entrant hedged his interest by selling off a share of his horse, but if the horse had an actual shot in the race, wouldn't the original owner have held on to at least a small share?

19.  Wildcat Red.  He and General A Rod spent their last two races dueling it out on the front end of the Gulfstream Park prep races, showing little ability to rate and even less chance that either wants any part of 10 furlongs.  They only ran well in the Fountain of Youth because the track was absurdly speed-biased that day; unless the Derby track is a conveyor belt, you'll hear from these two early, but not late.

18.  Harry's Holiday.  The fact that the owners of this horse also wanted to buy a piece of General A Rod tells you what they think about this guy's chances on Saturday.  The fact that he lost his last race by a cool 28 1/4 lengths while finishing 13th of 14th probably doesn't help either.

17.  Vinceremos.  And here's the one horse that ran worse than Harry's Holiday in the Blue Grass Stakes.  He rates marginally higher because he has a stakes win on the dirt (Sam Davis Stakes), which he followed up by running a disappointing second in the Tampa Bay Derby and his DAFL in the Blue Grass.  Todd Pletcher usually has one horse in the Derby that runs near the back of the pack and does nothing; of his four entrants, this appears to be the most likely to fit that bill.

16.  We Miss Artie.  Or it could be this grass and synthetics specialist, who's looked horrible on the dirt.  In fact, after his last workout, rival trainer Bob Baffert said "I'm not sure at all if he should be running in the Derby."  Next time Bob, don't hold back with your opinions.

15.  Commanding Curve.  Drew into the race when his stablemate, who would have been 30-1, came down with a fever at the last minute.  He's only won once, and was a non-threatening third in a lower-tier prep race last out.  It's tough to view this entry as anything other than your usual publicity stunt by West Point Thoroughbreds.

Nice Last Race.  Still Don't Care.

14.  Dance with Fate.  The winner of the Blue Grass Stakes in his last start, he looks to continue a stretch of horribleness for winners of the race since Keeneland went to a synthetic track.  Here's how the recent winners of the Blue Grass fared on the first Saturday in May:

2007.....Dominican.................11th
2008.....Monba.......................20th
2009.....General Quarters.......10th
2010.....Stately Victor.............8th
2011.....Brilliant Speed...........7th
2012.....Dullahan....................3rd
2013.....Java's War................13th

We do have some indication as to how this guy will do in a dirt route: badly.  In his last dirt start, the Breeders Cup Juvenile, he ran 8th and was never a factor.  To top it off, his owner and trainer were vacillating on whether to even run him in Derby right after the Blue Grass, noting that this horse is better on turf and synthetics.  Clearly, Derby Fever got a hold of them both.  If the owner and trainer don't think he really belongs, we don't either.

Voice of Churchill Downs and Friend of the Gazette, Larry Collmus.

13.  Medal Count.  Rates slightly higher than Dance with Fate even though he lost to him in the Blue Grass because he at least has some dirt pedigree and his owners aren't running here for kicks.  But all of his good races have been on turf and synthetics, while all of his dirt races have been unimpressive.  We look forward to seeing him and Dance with Fate renew their rivalry in the Secretariat Stakes in August.

12.  Chitu.  The winner of the Sunland Derby, this guy has always looked like Bob Baffert's backup plan.  While that worked in the case of Real Quiet, it's less impressive when he lost his only race of consequence to Candy Boy, who's also running in the Derby and has taken on tougher horses.  His race in New Mexico looked impressive visually and came up pedestrian on the numbers.  Given he beat nobody of interest in that race, we side with the numbers.

11.  Vicar's In Trouble.  The star of the Louisiana circuit.  After running a perfunctory 2yo race at Keeneland's fall meet, he's run four times at Fair Grounds with three wins, including the Louisiana Derby.  But we're skeptical.  Two starts ago, in the Lecomte, he ran a clean race (if a little wide) behind a fair pace and was never close to the top two finishers.  In the Louisiana Derby, the favorite (Intense Holiday) broke poorly and he and others had traffic trouble, allowing Vicar's in Trouble to get an easy (if unexpected) lead that was never really contested.  He hit the top of the stretch with plenty left in the tank and was never really threatened by others who couldn't quite get their act together.

There are few horses that are better bet-againsts than horses who ran well when they had an uncontested lead and nothing to challenge them.  He won't get an easy lead in the Derby - we don't think he'll be anywhere near the lead, honestly - and we've seen nothing to indicate he has the stretch punch to beat Intense Holiday again, let alone the other contenders.  We think you'll hear his name exactly once during the entire call of the race, and will next think about him when he's running in Louisiana as a four-year old in January.

Coming tomorrow: Our look at the top 10 and our pick.

2013 Kentucky Derby Preview Part III: The Top Half

We feel like we say this more often than not, but we think this is a pretty good crop of three year olds.  Most of the horses we're going to discuss today have been decent to good so far; there aren't a lot of stiffs in the top half of the pack.  Perhaps this is because this crop has been relatively injury-free this year so far - we can't think of too many of the chief contenders that fell to injury during the winter.  Of course, that happened last year as well and the class turned into a MASH unit by early August.

Let's get back at the countdown, starting with some of the horses that have accomplished a bit to date but we don't like on Saturday.

Prep Winners We're Against

10.  Java's War.  The winner of the Blue Grass Derby; his resume is a lot less impressive once it's scrutinized.  As we've said time and time again, the Blue Grass has become a fairly meaningless prep race because it's on polytrack, and the best finish we've seen out of a recent winner was Dullahan's non-threatening third last year.  Usually the winners do nothing of note on the dirt again - in fact, we're not sure that any of Dominican, Monba, General Quarters, Stately Victor or Brilliant Speed won another dirt race after the Blue Grass.  Even worse for this horse is his propensity to completely miss the break at the start of the race and spot the field several lengths.  That didn't hurt him in Keeneland where the field was smaller and the race played to a closer.  Neither is the case in the Derby.  He could clunk up for a piece of the superfecta but we think he's a great bet-against.

9.  Goldencents.  The only route for victory for this horse is to steal the race on the front end or just off of it, and he's shown no ability to rate more than a couple of lengths off the pace and his breeding (Into Mischief, a fairly obscure sprint-based sire we noted yesterday with Vyjack) suggests speed.  Sometimes that works - in his last race, the Santa Anita Derby, he sat just off little-hoper Super Ninety Nine and took over when he faded and nobody else could close.  Sometimes it doesn't - two races back, he dueled with Flashback and faded miserably in the stretch.  Now we get that people are speculating that this Derby has no speed and could be stolen on or near the front end, but we don't believe that, and Goldencents isn't a speed freak like Bodemeister who can try to make everyone catch him for 10 furlongs.  He's more of a conventional speed horse that shows no real desire to go beyond 9 furlongs under ideal circumstances, and is more likely to finish 18th than 1st.

8.  Overanalyze.  In theory there's a ton to like here: solid breeding, Todd Pletcher, and a win in the Arkansas Derby.  But once you get past that initial blast of positive information, it's a lot less interesting.  He's run exactly one race with over a 90 Gowanus Speed Figure (last year's Remsen), where he was hanging on for dear life at the end.  His return to racing in the Gotham earlier this year was horrendous, which he followed up with his Arkansas Derby victory that looked good visually but yielded a paltry 88 speed figure, which looks worse when you consider that his main competition (War Academy) didn't finish the race.  He's going to need to take a huge step forward to compete on Saturday, let alone win.

The Price Doesn't Match His Chances

7.  Revolutionary. The one guarantee we can give you is that this horse will be overbet in relation to his chances on Saturday solely because 3-time Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel will be in the irons.  After guiding to victory a favorite (Street Sense), logical horse (Super Saver) and utter bomb (Mine That Bird) in the last six years, the public is convinced that Borel's touch is golden and bets him accordingly. Two years ago Borel rode the horrendous Twice the Appeal to a 10th place finish at 12-1.  Had any other jockey been on him, he would have been at least 40-1.  Last year, Take Charge Indy was 12-1 when he should have been about twice that price.  The only horse he beat was Daddy Long Legs, who pulled up.

This isn't to say that Revolutionary has no chance in this race, but he's likely to be around 8-1 and his chances of winning are a lot longer than that.  After three races Revolutionary was considered a titanic disappointment, having failed to break his maiden and losing at 1-5 in an Aqueduct maiden race.  Clearly some switch finally flipped after that race, as he's torn off three straight victories in closing style, but it's really difficult to be impressed by those wins.  The first was over maidens at Aqueduct in the dead of winter; hardly a vintage crop of horses.  Next up was the Withers Stakes, a prep for a prep for the Wood Memorial, which he won by a hard fought neck over a horse that has done nothing since.  He followed that up with a grinding victory by a neck in the Louisiana Derby over Mylute, who was 19-1 that day and figures to be even longer on Saturday.  (We'll concede that a couple of other nice horses finished behind him that race, including Illinois Derby winner Departing and someone further up on this list.)  Add to these middling victories breeding that's schizophrenic on getting 10 furlongs - his sire, War Pass, screams sprinter, while his dam, Runup the Colors, was an excellent router - and we're reluctant to put him in the top tier of horses.

6.  Verrazano. Sabermetric studies have shown that generally speaking, baseball position players develop along a predictable curve where they show talent early, peak at ages 26-29, then have a noticeable decline into their mid-30s followed by a collapse.  Starting pitchers, by contrast, by and large do not follow an aging curve.  Some starters take years to develop into good pitchers and reach their peak when they're in their late 20s (Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, to name two).  Some start off fabulous and keep up a level of excellence for years (Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, Felix Hernandez).  Some take forever to reach their apex (R.A. Dickey, Jamie Moyer).  And tons more start off like a house on fire and flame out for any number of reasons - fans of Mark Mulder, Dwight Gooden, Barry Zito and Mark Prior are nodding right now, while Chris Sale and Matt Harvey acolytes are covering their eyes.

Horses, we believe, develop a lot more like pitchers than hitters.  Some will take years to get good and peak at ages 5 or 6.  Others peak when they're 3 or 4.  And some are prodigious right out of the gate and actually have their best starts in one of their first three races, which is akin to a pitcher having his best season his rookie or sophomore year.  You can't assume a pitcher will get better just because he's young, and you can't assume a horse will simply get better because he did well when he was running in allowance company.

We mention this because Verrazano has all the looks of a talented horse that may have already peaked in his 4-race career.  (He has other issues as well that we won't focus on: the lack of a start as a 2 year old and being sired by a pure sprinter.)  His maiden race was great - he won by over 16 lengths - and his second start was absolutely electric, as he sat a length off a contested pace and pulled away under a hand ride.  That yielded a 105 speed figure.  Stretched out to two turns, he won his next two starts (Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial) in a more professional manner, looking solid while never really dominating.  More importantly though, his speed figures have declined as the distances have gotten longer and he's faced more seasoned competition.

There's a good chance that the last two races were just consolidation races and he's ready to make a leap forward into greatness after getting the two-turn and stakes experience under the belt.  That's happened before.  But what we think is more likely is that he ran his best race in his second start and is on the decline.  We think he fades in the final furlongs and either retires or takes a break to return in shorter races.

Contenders for a Piece

5.  Black Onyx. We freely admit this is a little bit of a stab but there's a lot to like here on a horse that will be at least 30-1 (he's 50-1 on the morning line).  While his greatest success has come on synthetic surfaces, his breeding (Grade 1 winner Rock Hard Ten out of a Cape Town mare) is very dirt-oriented.  He isn't a dead closer and has enough tactical speed to be in the second or third flight of horses.  His speed figures, while slow, are on a definite path up.  And we love Kelly Breen with longshots - he did pull off Ruler on Ice in the 2011 Belmont.  We would be a bit surprised to see him on top, but not in triples or superfectas.

4.  Palice Malice. It's odd enough that a Todd Pletcher entry has already made 4 starts this year but this guy takes it to the next level by making the Derby his third start in 5 weeks. At some level we want him to win the Derby because it means Pletcher would have to run him 4 times in 7 weeks, which would be often of in harness racing, let alone Grade 1 thoroughbreds.

The reason this superbly bred colt is running so often is that he needed the points to qualify for the race.  Pletcher set up his schedule that the Louisiana Derby would be his big prep race but Palice Malice had a trip from hell where he was boxed in the stretch the entire time and never able to really run.  His connections - and in no small part, his owner, Cot Campbell of Dogwood Stables - decided to wheel him back two weeks later in the Blue Grass, where he wrested control at the top of the stretch but ultimately lost to the late-charging Java's War.  But that was a synthetic surface which we suspect wasn't his best surface and think he'll move forward off that race.  We also like the fact that he's going against the grain by running so often and think this may inure to his benefit. That said, this guy has only won once to date, so be careful about taking him in the win slot.

3.  Normandy Invasion. We really like his form cycle coming into this race: an excellent second to close out his 2yo campaign, followed by a start off a layoff that was pretty meaningless and an excellent second to Verrazano in the Wood where he was closing late.  While we think his trainer Chad Brown is poised to make The Leap into fame and like his breeding for the distance, we have two major concerns.  First is the fact that this guy is a world beater at Aqueduct and squarely pedestrian elsewhere.  That could be coincidence but he could also be a horse for the course.  The second is the fact that he's only won one race lifetime.  Every year we get horses that are good closers but light on the victory tab that are heavily bet during the Triple Crown.  They're fair bets to finish in the money but never win - think of Nehro in the 2011 Derby.  He may be another one of those who menaces but can't close the deal and ultimately finishes a good third.

2.  Itsmyluckyday. The Forgotten Horse.  After a decent but pretty uninteresting 2 year old campaign (which had 7 starts!), the light switch turned on when he returned to the Gulfstream dirt, as he won an ungraded stakes on January 1 by open lengths.  He then went to the Holy Bull where he beat BC Juvenile champ Shanghai Bobby handily by showing good tactical speed and drawing away in the stretch.  These two races were good for speed figures of 102 and 104, respectively.  He then went off as the favorite in the Florida Derby where he ran a second that's better than it looks - there was no pace in the race, the track had a fluky bias, and he was collared in the final furlongs.  But it was also his first race off a by-design two month layoff, as his trainer decided to give him a breather before the Triple Crown and the prep race.  We think that was a good move and he jumps back into triple GSF territory again, which puts him near the top of this group.  Even better - he's 15-1 on the morning line, and we think he'll drift up to even a higher price as people focus on his last race and relatively unknown trainer and jockey.  That would be a mistake - this is a good horse in good hands.

The Pick

1.  Orb.  We know, a complete shock given Wednesday's post.  But putting aside our infatuation with Shug McGaughey, we simply think he's the best horse in the group.  His move in the Fountain of Youth to propel him from the back of the pack to second at the top of the stretch reminded us of Monarchos' huge move in the 2001 Florida Derby, which he replicated in winning the Kentucky Derby.  Orb's Florida Derby showed a new level of versatility as he sat close to the non-existent pace and pounced when they came to the stretch.  We think he'll be in a good spot in this race - maybe 5-7 lengths off a moderate pace - and in prime position to take over and hold off the closers down the stretch.  And give Mr. McGaughey his first Derby win, at long last.

How to Play the Race

Orb is currently 7-2 on the morning line, and we think he's going to be longer than that: closer to 9-2/5-1.  At those odds, just bet him to win, as there's nothing wrong with quadrupling your money.  And the same holds true for most of the other horses: we don't think too many will be single digit odds.  If you're looking to make a bit more than that, take a peek at the multi-race bets.  Wise Dan and Point of Entry tower over the field in the Woodford Reserve in the prior race, and doubles with them should be okay, especially if you're able to pick between the two.  (We can't.)  If you're interested in a Pick Three, check out closers Hierro, Pass the Dice and Unbridled's Note in the CD Handicap, a race that's loaded with speed.  And to make it official, the picks:

1st: Orb
2nd: Itsmyluckyday
3rd: Normandy Invasion
4th: Black Onyx

Good luck to all and enjoy the Derby!

UPDATE: Black Onyx has scratched, so move Palace Malice into the 4th slot.

2012 Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The Lower Half

The horses had been entered, the posts have been drawn, and we have the field for the 2012 Kentucky Derby!  (We will ignore also-eligible My Adonis; you should too.)  Let's get right to a countdown of one of the more interesting crops of horses we've had in a while.  There's no fewer than a dozen horses that would not be a complete shock if they won this year's Derby, but today, we'll look at ten horses that we don't think will finish in the money on Saturday.  As always, our predictions and picks are assuming the track is fast.

Below the Maginot Line

20.  Trinniberg.  When people talk about owners contracting Derby Fever, this is exactly what they're referring to.  This son of crackerjack sprinter Teufelsberg has never raced beyond 7 furlongs -- 3 furlongs shorter than the Derby itself -- has no breeding for the distance, and is a committed front-runner.  It would be one thing if the owner was entering him as a "rabbit" with the hope of using his speed to set up the race for a closer.  That's not the case, though, as the connections have no other horse in the race.  What we are guaranteed is that this guy will set brisk fractions, which will have some pretty clear implications for other runners we'll get to.

19.  Optimizer. Once the best trainer in the business, D. Wayne Lukas hasn't won a stakes race since Dublin won the Hopeful stakes in September 2009, a streak of over 110 races.  The streak will not end on Saturday.

18.  Rousing Sermon. He's a dead closer whose two wins were in races restricted to California-breds, and hasn't been competitive in a real race all year.  We're also trying to think of the last time a Northern California horse was actually competitive in the Derby and are stumped.  Usually they wind up at the back of the pack, which is where he'll be.

17.  Prospective.  Canada's best juvenile last year, he finished DAFL in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year over the same track at 41-1, and has won some money in minor races in Tampa this year without ever running particularly well.  There are shades of Mine That Bird here, but we'll bet that pigs don't fly a second time in 4 years.

16.  Sabercat. The mark of a good trainer is knowing where to spot a horse to give him a chance to win and make money for your owners.  This horse is Exhibit A of good handling--he's not that good or fast, but has won 3 races and nearly $800k because his connections ran him in the Delta Jackpot and some relatively easy races at Monmouth, where he flourished.  Since stepping up to face other Derby-caliber horses, he's lost twice by a combined 18 lengths.  He has the look of a horse who will win some Derbies in Ohio and Iowa, but not Kentucky.

Won Your Prep?  Bah!

15.  Done Talking. The old racing expression is "time only matters when you're in jail."  In other words, how long it took a horse to win a race doesn't matter, and often, the exact final time of a race is particularly meaningless because it's contingent on a number of variables (deepness and wetness of the track, pace, rail bias, wind, etc.), which is why they make speed figures to normalize for all these variable.  We normally agree...but we're ignoring this maxim for the winner of the Illinois Derby.  The stretch run of the Illinois Derby was painfully slow, and the final time was three seconds -- i.e., 15 to 18 lengths -- slower than the Wood Memorial.  Given that the only other race of note this guy ran was a 4th place finish in a horrible rendition of the Remsen as a two year old, we do not like his chances on Saturday.

14.  Went the Day Well. One of the worst bets you can make on Derby Day is chasing a horse that vaguely resembles the prior year's winner, because they're always overbet and lose.  In 2002, War Emblem won the Derby at 20-1 for Bob Baffert, when his prior race was a wire-to-wire win.  In 2003, Indian Express ran with similar credentials, and ran 14th at 10-1.  After Calvin Borel won 3 Derbies in 4 years, last year, Twice the Appeal was bet down to 11-1; had any other jockey been in the irons, he would have been 50-1.  He ran 10th.

This year's example is Went the Day Well.  Last year, Animal Kingdom was trained by Graham Motion, bred for the turf, and won the Derby off a win in the Spiral and zero success on the dirt.  This year, Went the Day Well is trained by Graham Motion, comes in having won the Spiral (on synthetic) and having won a maiden race on the dirt.  His odds should be about 30-1, they're likely going to be around 12-1 because the masses will see him as Animal Kingdom 2.0.  Don't fall for the trap.  Look elsewhere.

13.  Take Charge Indy. The line between no-hoper and possibility falls right about here.  We're against the next bunch of horses, but a win by any of them certainly wouldn't be a shock.  That said, we're against this impeccably bred son of A.P. Indy who we actually liked a little in the Breeders Cup last year.  Why?  Well, the presence of Calvin Borel means his price is going to be significantly lower than his chances of winning; we think he'll be no higher than 12-1.  His Florida Derby win came when he was on a very easy lead for the whole race and running on a track that was probably speed-biased: 30-1 shot Reveron ran 2nd the entire race, too.  The presence of Trinniberg, and others, guarantees that the pace will be stronger, which won't be to his advantage.  Unless there's a pronounced speed bias on Derby day, we think he's a factor early who's passed late by half the field.

12.  Daddy Long Legs.  He's had good success on the turf and synthetic, but absolutely bombed in his only dirt start (last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile).  On the plus side, he has a nice foundation as a 2yo, is bred fine for the dirt, and comes in off a win at 1 3/16, meaning he has run a distance comparable to the Derby.  But even his trainer, Aiden O'Brien, admits that he has a fair amount of catching up to do if he's going to win the Derby.  We're ranking him this high out of respect for how good a trainer O'Brien is, but think he's up against it here, especially since he's only made one start this year.

11.  Dullahan. There are a lot of reasons to like this horse--he's a dead closer in a race with good early speed, he's by the same dam as 2009 winner Mine That Bird, and Dale Romans remains an underrated Triple Crown trainer.  But we still think this horse has no real interest in running on the dirt.  His only two wins were both over Keeneland's synthetic track, and while he won the Blue Grass, since going to synthetic, that race has produced nothing besides Street Sense, who was already a proven commodity on the dirt.  He's run fairly well on the turf, with three in the money finishes in three starts.  But his dirt starts have been completely uninspiring: two no-shows as a maiden at Churchill, and a completely non-threatening fourth in the Juvenile last year, where he was closer to 8th place than to 3rd.

Now we're not against betting on horses to improve and do something they haven't done in the past.  But if you're going to take that kind of risk, you need to be amply compensated for it at the mutuel windows.  For example, while we think has Prospective has next to no shot, you're at least getting 40-1 or so to acknowledge this reality.  Dullahan, by contrast is going to be about 8-1.  His odds of winning the race are far, far worse than 12%.  We won't discourage you from using him in trifectas and superfectas, because he's a perfect clunk-up type to round out exotics.  But to win?  He's one of the biggest sucker bets in the race, we think.


Coming up tomorrow: the Top 10.

2012 Kentucky Derby Preview Part I: The Last Rule Standing

In our first year as online authors, we blogged about the various and sundry Rules that apply to picking a horse to win the Kentucky Derby.  Since that post, one by one, most of the Rules have been broken, sometimes repeatedly.  For example:

• 3 or more starts as a three-year old.  As of 2007, only one horse in over 50 years (Sunny's Halo) had won the Derby without making at least 3 starts as a three-year old.  No sooner did we write this than Street Sense broke the rule.  In fact, every horse that's won the Derby from 2007 forward did so with only two starts as a 3 year old.

• A race within the last 4 weeks.  As we noted in '07, this rule was broken by Barbaro in 2006 because the Florida Derby was moved to five weeks out.  Then Big Brown did the same thing in 2008.  Animal Kingdom raised this a notch by winning the Spiral six weeks out and then taking the Derby last year.

• A 106+ GSF before the Derby.  This had been a requirement since they started posting speed figures.  But it hasn't happened since Big Brown in 2008.

• 3 or more career wins.  We noted five years ago that the average Derby winner had 3 prior wins.  Neither Animal Kingdom nor Super Saver fit this bill.

• 5 or more career starts before the Derby.  Animal Kingdom won the roses last year with 4 prior starts. Even more of a deviation from the norm, Big Brown won the Derby off of 3 career starts, which had not been done since 1915.

• The Juvenile Curse.  Street Sense broke this in 2007.

So it's pretty clear that what worked in 1992 isn't as important in 2012.  There are a variety of reasons for this shift: horses making fewer starts, new training methods, prep races that are spaced out over time and at new tracks, the influence of drugs and medications and the ban on steroids, and the prevalence of speed breeding.  This hasn't quite turned the Derby on its proverbial head, but has opened the door to a variety of horses that wouldn't have been contenders as recently as 7 years ago.

*               *               *

One Kentucky Derby Rule remains and is the gold standard of rules: no horse other than Apollo has won the Derby without running a race as a two-year old.  And Apollo did it in 1882, meaning it's been 130 years since this has happened.

Now this isn't a rule that has no bearing on a race's outcome, like saying that no white horse can win the Derby.  Nor is it a rule with a small sample size, such as noting that an Idaho-bred has never won the Derby.  In the past 75 years, 56 horses have tried winning the Derby without running as a two year old and all failed.  And many of that failed were legitimately good horses.  All of them lost.  This includes three legitimate Hall of Fame horses, Coaltown (2d, 1948), Forego (4th, 1973) and Curlin (3d, 2007).  It also includes horses that won other Triple Crown races (Summer Bird), multiple Grade 1 races (Devil His Due, Wavering Monarch, Showing Up, Pulpit), and horses that were extremely solid perfomers (Strodes Creek, Corporate Report, Twice a Prince).

Why has this "curse" held up so well over the years when good horses have tried to tackle it repeatedly?  Our favorite turf writer, Plagiarizing Andy Beyer, asked trainer Carl Nafzger this many moons ago, which we've quoted in the past but is worth repeating here:

Why should a horse's performance on the first Saturday in May be affected by what he did a year earlier? I once put this question to Carl Nafzger (who trains Curlin's main rival, Street Sense), and he replied: "When a horse runs even one race as a 2-year-old, he had to get fit to get there, and he gets a lot of experience." Behind a single inconsequential-looking race in the past performances, there are months of training that are a crucial part of the animal's overall preparation.

In short, the Derby isn't a race that you can prepare for quickly.  It comes after a key amount of training and run-up, and part of that is the preparation and foundation as a two-year old.  This is why even Big Brown's start as a 2yo mattered.

*               *               *

The Curse of Apollo is back in the limelight again because our probable favorite for the Derby this year is Bodemeister, who did not run as a 2yo and comes in off of 4 starts as a 3 year old, culminating in a strong win in the Arkansas Derby:

 

Now normally we'd say dismiss Bodemeister as a contender, because hell, Curlin couldn't do break Apollo's curse, so why should he?  What makes Bodemeister's bid more interesting is that there's a good chance he's the best horse in the race right now.  This hasn't usually been the case, because in the most serious bids for the Derby by a horse that didn't race as a 2yo, the competition was stiff:

• Coaltown went against Citation, one of the three greatest horses ever.

• Forego went against Secretariat, to say nothing of Sham.

• Curlin went against Street Sense, who was the defending 2yo champion and was peaking coming into the Derby.

• Pulpit, who was the favorite in 1997, ran into Hall of Famer Silver Charm, buzzsaw Captain Bodgit, and a hard knocker in Free House.

Right now, there doesn't appear to be a horse running in the Derby with the talent of Street Sense, let alone Silver Charm or Citation.  It's an interesting and deep crop with a lot of horses that were prominent in their juvenile seasons still around, and in some cases, having improved.  Any of Union Rags, I'll Have Another, Dullahan or Gemologist could take a big step forward on May 5 and vault himself into that echelon of excellent horses.  And, in the process, end all the hype for Bodemeister.

But there just hasn't been much in the way of proof this is going to happen.  Bodemeister has popped 3 triple-digit Gowanus Speed Figures; nobody else has topped 100 more than once.  Bodemeister has great tactical speed and doesn't appear to need the lead, which isn't true for many of the other top contenders.  And he has Bob Baffert on his side--while Baffert hasn't won the Derby in 10 years, he's still among the best in getting a horse ready for the race.

Next week, we'll do our annual countdown of the Derby horses, and ask ourselves the question whether we're dealing with a beast that's the best of a decent class, or whether his competitors can rise to the level of performance that Bodemeister has shown in his brief career.  This is a fun crop of horses, and promises to be a fun Triple Crown season, let's hope they deliver some memorable performances in the process.

Kentucky Derby Preview Part III: The Upper Echelon

Maybe it's an odd year/even year thing like Bret Saberhagen performances.

This is the fifth year we're previewing the Derby and posting our picks. Though we've made 4 picks to date and liked every horse we've picked, we were really brimming with confidence in 2 of them. We loved Street Sense in 2007, he won won easily. We loved I Want Revenge in 2009, who we maintain would have won had he not been injured and scratched that morning. By contrast, in 2008 we knew it was a crapshoot after Big Brown, and the early scratch of Eskendereya left us with Awesome Act in 2010.

This year, while everyone's saying the race is wide-open and to look for chaos, we think a horse looks primed to run big on Saturday and establish himself as the leader of the crop. Let's count down those remaining.

Why Should I Like You?

8. Stay Thirsty. A horse with a great name--we suspect that the name alone will make him 12-1, regardless of merits--good breeding and the Pletcher connection should grab your undivided attention. But his past performances suggest otherwise. His only win of note was in the Gotham, where he tepidly beat a horse that was 47-1 and nowhere to be found in the Wood. He followed that up with a complete no-show in the Florida Derby. Pletcher and Mike Repole have always treated this horse as Plan B. You should too, and ignore him.

7. Midnight Interlude. It sounds good to be the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, but is that really that big a deal? Let's take a look at the prep races for the 33 horses that finished in the money in the last 11 Kentucky Derbies (2000 forward):

• Blue Grass: 7 (Invisible Ink, Peace Rules, Lion Heart, Closing Argument, Bluegrass Cat, Street Sense, Paddy O'Prado)
  
• Arkansas Derby: 6 (Impeachment, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Steppenwolfer, Curlin, Super Saver)
  
• Wood Memorial: 6 (Fusaichi Pegasus, Aptitude, Monarchos, Conagree, Funny Cide, Empire Maker)
  
• Florida Derby: 3 (Barbaro, Big Brown, Ice Box)
• Santa Anita Derby: 3 (Imperialism, Giacomo, Pioneerofthenile)
  
• Illinois Derby: 3 (War Emblem, Denis of Cork, Musket Man)
  
• Ashland: 1 (Eight Belles)
  
• Spiral: 1 (Perfect Drift)
  
• Sunland Derby: 1 (Mine That Bird)
  
• Louisiana Derby: 1 (Hard Spun)
• Lexington: 1 (Proud Citizen)
  

So yes, while the Santa Anita Derby has not become a completely irrelevant race, it's no longer assumed that the winner is a key player in the Kentucky Derby. And when your winner is a horse that has started 4 times, never ran as a 2-year old and had to use the entire stretch to beat the distance-challenged Comma at the Top...we're not that interested.

6. Uncle Mo. Before we get to this guy's merits, let's also note that while the Wood Memorial looks like a productive prep, there hasn't been a horse that finished in the money from the Wood since 2003. Which is fairly amazing. Now we acknowledge there's been some bad luck involved--the last two winners, I Want Revenge and Eskendereya, were injured right before the Derby and would have been favorites in both races--but it can't be coincidence that the Wood has decreased in its prolific nature as the producer of Derby contenders when the Florida Derby became an actual Derby prep.

On to last year's 2 year old champion. It's a little hard to get a read on a horse that was one of the most dominant two year olds we've seen in a while, then comes back to look like he still has the latent talent but bomb in the prep race with an illness. Then a decent (but not perfect) parallel came to mind: Unbridled's Song.

Unbridled's Song won the BC Juvenile in his 3rd start--the only horse besides Uncle Mo to pull off the feat. He went to Florida for his 3yo winter, where he lost to the horrible Built for Pleasure in the Fountain of Youth, before winning the Florida Derby (impressively and over some pretty good horses) and then shipped up to NY for the Wood. He beat all comers that day--which constituted 6 bad horses--but in the process split his hoof open and had a quartercrack. Now we had a horse that people were questioning his distance ability, health, and was temperamental to boot. He was made a tepid Derby favorite, ran strongly for 8 1/2 furlongs, then faded in the stretch to finish 5th.

Uncle Mo has a shorter profile than Unbridled's Song, and there's a little less of a circus around him this year than there was with U's Song, who was owned by the irascible Ernie Paragallo. But here again, you have a phenom that may or may not have taken a step forward as a 3 year old, has some health issues, isn't really bred for the distance, and is a committed front runner. If he's the next Seattle Slew or Spectacular Bid, maybe he can pull it off. Chances are, he's the next Pulpit, and he'll fade at the top of the stretch.

[UPDATE: Uncle Mo is scratched, which is not great from those looking to make a buck off the race, but confirms our skepticism.]

Everyone's Favorites

5. Dialed In. The favorite by default, Nick Zito's charge is a dead closer in a race with a fair amount of speed and good distance breeding who just won the Florida Derby. Doesn't this sound familiar? Well...yes. That was Ice Box's pedigree last year, and he ran a tough-luck second in the Derby. Still, we're bit more bearish on this guy than we were on Ice Box (who, you'll note, we didn't love either). Ice Box had a good foundation for the race (7 starts), this guy doesn't (4 starts). Ice Box ran a nice GSF around 2 turns, this guy hasn't. And this guy labored to get past a middling horse (Shackleford) in a Florida Derby that completely fell apart. Why should we take 4-1 on that?

4. Nehro. Pointless prediction: this guy is going to be the second choice in the race. Not juvenile champ Uncle Mo. Not the horse that beat him last out and has the highest speed figure in the race. No, it's going to be a horse that's won one race in his career, has never raced outside of Louisiana and Arkansas, and lost his first start of the season by 24 lengths.

Why all the love? Because he's finished like a shot in his last two races and is trained by Steve Asmussen of Curlin/Rachel Alexandra fame. After running a fairly uninspired 4th in his debut, this guy was 5-2 in his next try in a maiden race and ran next to last, losing by a football field to uninteresting horses. Apparently though a light switch flicked on in that race, because he then won his maiden going away, was a fast-closing second to Pants on Fire in the Louisiana Derby (at 36-1) and then ran a game second in the Arkansas Derby, again falling short by a neck. He's clearly on the improve, has the right type of tactical/closing speed that we like to see, and is impeccably bred for the distance.

But still...we can't get past the fact that this guy has only one win in his career. The only horse that we can think of that won the Derby with only 1 victory was Giacomo, and at least on him, you were being compensated to the tune of 50-1. This guy is going to be 6-1.

Yeah, he has excuses in his last two races. Is it now going to get any easier when there are 19 other horses in the field? We think not. We like him to run fairly well and maybe complete a triple/superfecta, but not get his picture taken in the winner's circle.

Contenders (Maybe at a Price)

3. Santiva. I feel like we say this every year, but it's because it's an angle that hits every once in a while: if you're looking for a price in the Derby, especially in exactas, triples and supers, look for horses that were highly regarded before their final prep, ran poorly with an obvious excuse, and now look like they have a shot to do damage. These horses rarely win--Thunder Gulch in 1995 was the only recent example of a winner. But every few years, they do hit the board. Recent examples are Denis of Cork (3rd at 27-1 in 2008), Bluegrass Cat (2nd at 30-1 in 2006), and Invisible Ink (2nd at 55-1 in 2001).

This year, the example is Santiva, who should be at least 25-1 on Saturday. Impeccably bred--by Giant's Causeway out of a mare by Smarten--this guy was a highly thought of two year old when he won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, the same race won by Super Saver in 2009. Freshened a little over the winter by not-bad trainer Eddie Kennally, he ran a strong second in the Risen Star off a layoff where he was wide on both turns and may have needed a race. He utterly flopped in his last race, on synthetics in the Blue Grass, where he had a horrible trip and probably didn't love the surface. Now he's working up a storm and may be primed third off a layoff to run big. It's a little tough to put him on top--there's a reason that a sharp prep race is a must for the Derby--but as a bomb to complete your exotics? We like him a lot.

2. Mucho Macho Man. If you're going the sympathy route, this is the answer, as he's trained by Kathy Ritvo, who survived a heart transplant three years ago and is now training a Derby starter. We're not often moved by human interest stories, but this one is pretty good.

As to the horse's merits, he's a hard-knocker who's only been out of the money once in his 8-race career, and that was when he was slammed leaving the gate in the Holy Bull. Since then, he won the Risen Star pretty handily and ran a decent third in the Louisiana Derby, especially considering he ran the entire race after throwing a horseshoe out of the gate.

The one thing we don't like is the 6-week layoff coming into the Derby--that hasn't helped horses like Read the Footnotes, Hard Spun, and Circular Quay in the past. And as consistent as he is, he seems to lack the "wow" factor that most Derby winners have. It's rare that a grinder/hard-knocker wins the Derby; the best recent examples that we can think of are Giacomo, who at least was 50-1, and maybe Funny Cide, who had at least shown in his prep that he could run really fast. We haven't gotten that feeling with this guy yet, and think he'll settle for a minor award.

The Pick

1. Archarcharch. Sometimes we overthink the Derby. Let's go through this horse's attributes as they relate to the Race.

• Foundation. Ran twice as a two year old and 4 times this year. As a minor bonus, he even has a race over the track (his first start).

• Starts this year. He had a bad start in January when he had to run through a pea soup fog. Since then, he had a solid win in the Southwest, a better-than-it-looked 3rd in the Rebel, and then an impressive come from behind victory in the Arkansas Derby. He's had a pretty solid prep campaign.

• Speed. He has the highest last out GSF and ran the fastest prep race. Somehow, nobody is talking about this.

• Running style. Closer, not a dead closer, and showed in the Arkansas Derby he can make a big move on the turn, which is what wins the Kentucky Derby. Absolutely perfect.

• Breeding. His sire, Arch, is a blue-blood sire for the distance and his dam is out of Woodman, providing a nice balance on the other side. No issues here.

The biggest "issue" with this guy--besides drawing the rail, which we think is overrated given that he'll be closing anyway--is his connections: nobody is familiar with William Fires and Jon Court. Court is a hard-knocking jockey that had some air time in the TV show Jockeys who's never quite made it, but has never really had that good a horse. You know, like Stewart Elliott on Smarty Jones in 2004. And William Fires is an old-timer who's forgotten more about horses than we will ever know. (And for the NBC soft focus feature maker, he's Court's father-in-law.)

So it's not like these guys are novices. This is just the first "big" horse they've had. And he's probably the best horse they've ever had. We think he sits in the third tier of horses off a pretty solid pace, makes a big move on the turn for the lead and holds off a few closers who he had first run on, winning the Run for the Roses.

How to Play the Race

Don't get cute. The lowest price you're going to see on a horse is maybe 4-1 on Dialed In, and there's a chance he goes off at much higher odds than that. So if you like someone, bet him to win. If you think a few horses have a shot, we recommend a 3 or 4 horse exacta box ($6 or $12 for a buck), and if you're right on the top 2 finishers, you'll do quite, quite well.

Good luck to all and enjoy the race!