Kentucky Derby Preview Part III: The Upper Echelon

Maybe it's an odd year/even year thing like Bret Saberhagen performances.

This is the fifth year we're previewing the Derby and posting our picks. Though we've made 4 picks to date and liked every horse we've picked, we were really brimming with confidence in 2 of them. We loved Street Sense in 2007, he won won easily. We loved I Want Revenge in 2009, who we maintain would have won had he not been injured and scratched that morning. By contrast, in 2008 we knew it was a crapshoot after Big Brown, and the early scratch of Eskendereya left us with Awesome Act in 2010.

This year, while everyone's saying the race is wide-open and to look for chaos, we think a horse looks primed to run big on Saturday and establish himself as the leader of the crop. Let's count down those remaining.

Why Should I Like You?

8. Stay Thirsty. A horse with a great name--we suspect that the name alone will make him 12-1, regardless of merits--good breeding and the Pletcher connection should grab your undivided attention. But his past performances suggest otherwise. His only win of note was in the Gotham, where he tepidly beat a horse that was 47-1 and nowhere to be found in the Wood. He followed that up with a complete no-show in the Florida Derby. Pletcher and Mike Repole have always treated this horse as Plan B. You should too, and ignore him.

7. Midnight Interlude. It sounds good to be the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, but is that really that big a deal? Let's take a look at the prep races for the 33 horses that finished in the money in the last 11 Kentucky Derbies (2000 forward):

• Blue Grass: 7 (Invisible Ink, Peace Rules, Lion Heart, Closing Argument, Bluegrass Cat, Street Sense, Paddy O'Prado)
  
• Arkansas Derby: 6 (Impeachment, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Steppenwolfer, Curlin, Super Saver)
  
• Wood Memorial: 6 (Fusaichi Pegasus, Aptitude, Monarchos, Conagree, Funny Cide, Empire Maker)
  
• Florida Derby: 3 (Barbaro, Big Brown, Ice Box)
• Santa Anita Derby: 3 (Imperialism, Giacomo, Pioneerofthenile)
  
• Illinois Derby: 3 (War Emblem, Denis of Cork, Musket Man)
  
• Ashland: 1 (Eight Belles)
  
• Spiral: 1 (Perfect Drift)
  
• Sunland Derby: 1 (Mine That Bird)
  
• Louisiana Derby: 1 (Hard Spun)
• Lexington: 1 (Proud Citizen)
  

So yes, while the Santa Anita Derby has not become a completely irrelevant race, it's no longer assumed that the winner is a key player in the Kentucky Derby. And when your winner is a horse that has started 4 times, never ran as a 2-year old and had to use the entire stretch to beat the distance-challenged Comma at the Top...we're not that interested.

6. Uncle Mo. Before we get to this guy's merits, let's also note that while the Wood Memorial looks like a productive prep, there hasn't been a horse that finished in the money from the Wood since 2003. Which is fairly amazing. Now we acknowledge there's been some bad luck involved--the last two winners, I Want Revenge and Eskendereya, were injured right before the Derby and would have been favorites in both races--but it can't be coincidence that the Wood has decreased in its prolific nature as the producer of Derby contenders when the Florida Derby became an actual Derby prep.

On to last year's 2 year old champion. It's a little hard to get a read on a horse that was one of the most dominant two year olds we've seen in a while, then comes back to look like he still has the latent talent but bomb in the prep race with an illness. Then a decent (but not perfect) parallel came to mind: Unbridled's Song.

Unbridled's Song won the BC Juvenile in his 3rd start--the only horse besides Uncle Mo to pull off the feat. He went to Florida for his 3yo winter, where he lost to the horrible Built for Pleasure in the Fountain of Youth, before winning the Florida Derby (impressively and over some pretty good horses) and then shipped up to NY for the Wood. He beat all comers that day--which constituted 6 bad horses--but in the process split his hoof open and had a quartercrack. Now we had a horse that people were questioning his distance ability, health, and was temperamental to boot. He was made a tepid Derby favorite, ran strongly for 8 1/2 furlongs, then faded in the stretch to finish 5th.

Uncle Mo has a shorter profile than Unbridled's Song, and there's a little less of a circus around him this year than there was with U's Song, who was owned by the irascible Ernie Paragallo. But here again, you have a phenom that may or may not have taken a step forward as a 3 year old, has some health issues, isn't really bred for the distance, and is a committed front runner. If he's the next Seattle Slew or Spectacular Bid, maybe he can pull it off. Chances are, he's the next Pulpit, and he'll fade at the top of the stretch.

[UPDATE: Uncle Mo is scratched, which is not great from those looking to make a buck off the race, but confirms our skepticism.]

Everyone's Favorites

5. Dialed In. The favorite by default, Nick Zito's charge is a dead closer in a race with a fair amount of speed and good distance breeding who just won the Florida Derby. Doesn't this sound familiar? Well...yes. That was Ice Box's pedigree last year, and he ran a tough-luck second in the Derby. Still, we're bit more bearish on this guy than we were on Ice Box (who, you'll note, we didn't love either). Ice Box had a good foundation for the race (7 starts), this guy doesn't (4 starts). Ice Box ran a nice GSF around 2 turns, this guy hasn't. And this guy labored to get past a middling horse (Shackleford) in a Florida Derby that completely fell apart. Why should we take 4-1 on that?

4. Nehro. Pointless prediction: this guy is going to be the second choice in the race. Not juvenile champ Uncle Mo. Not the horse that beat him last out and has the highest speed figure in the race. No, it's going to be a horse that's won one race in his career, has never raced outside of Louisiana and Arkansas, and lost his first start of the season by 24 lengths.

Why all the love? Because he's finished like a shot in his last two races and is trained by Steve Asmussen of Curlin/Rachel Alexandra fame. After running a fairly uninspired 4th in his debut, this guy was 5-2 in his next try in a maiden race and ran next to last, losing by a football field to uninteresting horses. Apparently though a light switch flicked on in that race, because he then won his maiden going away, was a fast-closing second to Pants on Fire in the Louisiana Derby (at 36-1) and then ran a game second in the Arkansas Derby, again falling short by a neck. He's clearly on the improve, has the right type of tactical/closing speed that we like to see, and is impeccably bred for the distance.

But still...we can't get past the fact that this guy has only one win in his career. The only horse that we can think of that won the Derby with only 1 victory was Giacomo, and at least on him, you were being compensated to the tune of 50-1. This guy is going to be 6-1.

Yeah, he has excuses in his last two races. Is it now going to get any easier when there are 19 other horses in the field? We think not. We like him to run fairly well and maybe complete a triple/superfecta, but not get his picture taken in the winner's circle.

Contenders (Maybe at a Price)

3. Santiva. I feel like we say this every year, but it's because it's an angle that hits every once in a while: if you're looking for a price in the Derby, especially in exactas, triples and supers, look for horses that were highly regarded before their final prep, ran poorly with an obvious excuse, and now look like they have a shot to do damage. These horses rarely win--Thunder Gulch in 1995 was the only recent example of a winner. But every few years, they do hit the board. Recent examples are Denis of Cork (3rd at 27-1 in 2008), Bluegrass Cat (2nd at 30-1 in 2006), and Invisible Ink (2nd at 55-1 in 2001).

This year, the example is Santiva, who should be at least 25-1 on Saturday. Impeccably bred--by Giant's Causeway out of a mare by Smarten--this guy was a highly thought of two year old when he won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, the same race won by Super Saver in 2009. Freshened a little over the winter by not-bad trainer Eddie Kennally, he ran a strong second in the Risen Star off a layoff where he was wide on both turns and may have needed a race. He utterly flopped in his last race, on synthetics in the Blue Grass, where he had a horrible trip and probably didn't love the surface. Now he's working up a storm and may be primed third off a layoff to run big. It's a little tough to put him on top--there's a reason that a sharp prep race is a must for the Derby--but as a bomb to complete your exotics? We like him a lot.

2. Mucho Macho Man. If you're going the sympathy route, this is the answer, as he's trained by Kathy Ritvo, who survived a heart transplant three years ago and is now training a Derby starter. We're not often moved by human interest stories, but this one is pretty good.

As to the horse's merits, he's a hard-knocker who's only been out of the money once in his 8-race career, and that was when he was slammed leaving the gate in the Holy Bull. Since then, he won the Risen Star pretty handily and ran a decent third in the Louisiana Derby, especially considering he ran the entire race after throwing a horseshoe out of the gate.

The one thing we don't like is the 6-week layoff coming into the Derby--that hasn't helped horses like Read the Footnotes, Hard Spun, and Circular Quay in the past. And as consistent as he is, he seems to lack the "wow" factor that most Derby winners have. It's rare that a grinder/hard-knocker wins the Derby; the best recent examples that we can think of are Giacomo, who at least was 50-1, and maybe Funny Cide, who had at least shown in his prep that he could run really fast. We haven't gotten that feeling with this guy yet, and think he'll settle for a minor award.

The Pick

1. Archarcharch. Sometimes we overthink the Derby. Let's go through this horse's attributes as they relate to the Race.

• Foundation. Ran twice as a two year old and 4 times this year. As a minor bonus, he even has a race over the track (his first start).

• Starts this year. He had a bad start in January when he had to run through a pea soup fog. Since then, he had a solid win in the Southwest, a better-than-it-looked 3rd in the Rebel, and then an impressive come from behind victory in the Arkansas Derby. He's had a pretty solid prep campaign.

• Speed. He has the highest last out GSF and ran the fastest prep race. Somehow, nobody is talking about this.

• Running style. Closer, not a dead closer, and showed in the Arkansas Derby he can make a big move on the turn, which is what wins the Kentucky Derby. Absolutely perfect.

• Breeding. His sire, Arch, is a blue-blood sire for the distance and his dam is out of Woodman, providing a nice balance on the other side. No issues here.

The biggest "issue" with this guy--besides drawing the rail, which we think is overrated given that he'll be closing anyway--is his connections: nobody is familiar with William Fires and Jon Court. Court is a hard-knocking jockey that had some air time in the TV show Jockeys who's never quite made it, but has never really had that good a horse. You know, like Stewart Elliott on Smarty Jones in 2004. And William Fires is an old-timer who's forgotten more about horses than we will ever know. (And for the NBC soft focus feature maker, he's Court's father-in-law.)

So it's not like these guys are novices. This is just the first "big" horse they've had. And he's probably the best horse they've ever had. We think he sits in the third tier of horses off a pretty solid pace, makes a big move on the turn for the lead and holds off a few closers who he had first run on, winning the Run for the Roses.

How to Play the Race

Don't get cute. The lowest price you're going to see on a horse is maybe 4-1 on Dialed In, and there's a chance he goes off at much higher odds than that. So if you like someone, bet him to win. If you think a few horses have a shot, we recommend a 3 or 4 horse exacta box ($6 or $12 for a buck), and if you're right on the top 2 finishers, you'll do quite, quite well.

Good luck to all and enjoy the race!

Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The Derby Undercard

Everyone in the mainstream media, horse racing media, blogosphere, and in the state of Kentucky spends countless time looking at the Derby, breaking down the races, looking for that goofy angle, or just enjoying the pageantry of the race. It's without a question the most over-analyzed race of the year.

What is also undisputed is that the most under-analyzed races of the year are those on the Derby undercard. Before the Run for the Roses, Churchill Downs hosts a veritable feast of good horse races, consisting of horses that are older, younger, male, female, on dirt, on dirt, and at myriad distances. It's a fun series of races that would make up a notable card without the presence of the Kentucky Derby.

More to the point: the same drunken throngs of 140,000 people at Churchill Downs that will be millions of dollars on Stay Thirsty because they like Dos Equis or bet their birthdays are also betting on these undercard races. It's a ton of uninformed money in the pool that inflates the odds for those who know racing and is there for the taking.

So as part of our duty to educate the public on horse racing in general and how to make money gambling, let's do a brief analysis of the undercard on Derby Day. Dazzle everyone at your party with your knowledge of the Woodford Reserve Turf Stakes, then demand that the bourbon they're using in the mint julep is actually Woodford Reserve.

Twin Spires Turf Sprint: 5 furlongs on the turf, 3yo and up.

Ah, turf sprints. Our old buddy Chamberlain Bridge of BC Turf Sprint fame is back on the track where he won the Breeders Cup, off a close-up 4th in the Shakertown. With the amount of speed in the race, we think he sits a perfect trip and takes it. We'll go against that obvious chalk for the other slots on the theory that they'll get fried in the early pace chase, and instead take shots underneath with Early Return, whose turf start three back was pretty good, and Bergerac, who is an insane 50-1 on the morning line for no discernible reason.

1st: Chamberlain Bridge 2nd: Early Return 3rd: Bergerac

Humana Distaff: Fillies and Mares, 7 furlongs on the dirt.

Historically, strange things happen in this race. Hall of Famer Azeri lost this race to the immortal Mayo on the Side in 2004. Heavy favorite Madcap Escapade lost to My Trusty Cat in 2005. Intangaroo sprung an upset and paid $30 in 2008. Mona de Monna knocked off Eclipse winner Informed Decision last year.

Given this, do you think we're going anywhere near Hilda's Passion, who's 6-5 on the morning line? Didn't think so. There looks like a fair amount of speed in the race, so we'll go with closer Evening Jewel, who likes the track, ran a nice 3rd in the BC Filly Sprint last year, and had a better-than-it-looked comeback in her last race. Amen Hallelujah has been working up a storm for the race and has been 2nd in 3 straight races. Make it 4.

1st: Evening Jewel 2nd: Amen Hallelujah 3rd: Hilda's Passion

Distaff Turf Mile: 1 mile on the turf for fillies and mares.

Simple theory: the Europeans are better at turf racing than we are. There's three ex-pats from across the pond here: Aruna, who's done nothing wrong for Graham Motion and Flaxman Stables in her three starts so far, and may be something good; Fantasia, who knocked around in the division for Jonathan Sheppard last year with decent results; and Aviate, a beautifully bred Juddmonte horse who just missed 2nd in her first start here in March. Their main competition is Never Retreat, who we're not wild about in the 11 post and stepping up a little in class here. Euros take the triple.

1st: Aviate 2nd: Aruna 3rd: Fantasia

Churchill Downs Handicap: 7 furlongs on dirt, 3yo and up

The best sprint race we're going to see for a while. A good friend of the blog repeatedly has said that there's no bigger difference in racing than 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs, and he's 100% right. We like to look for distance specialists at this trip, and lo and behold, Capt. Candyman Can is a perfect 5-for-5 at the distance and should be on the improve after recovering from a serious injury. The others who perpetually fire at the distance are Smiling Tiger and Here Comes Ben, and we'll lean towards the former because he's run recently.

1st: Capt. Candyman Can 2nd: Smiling Tiger 3rd: Here Comes Ben

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic: 1 1/8 miles on the turf, 3yo and up

Arguably the best race on the card, including the Kentucky Derby. We think the distance is too short for Prince Will I Am and Al Khali, and too long for miler Little Mike and speedster Get Stormy. But it looks just right for Doubles Partner, who's perfect at the distance and at Churchill Downs for Todd Pletcher, and exits an excellent performance at Tampa. We think he'll sit off a real pace and come flying late, once again beating Rahystrada. For the show slot, it's tough to argue with the excellent form that Expansion is in with two stellar starts at the distance, even with the 14 post.

1. Doubles Partner 2. Rahystrada 3. Expansion

Kentucky Derby Preview Part I: The Pretenders

The field has been entered, the post positions drawn, the jockeys assigned, and the horses have had their final workouts. Yes that's right, it's time to break down the field for the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

Here's the refrain you're going to hear over, and over, and over again this year: this Derby is wide open. And there's a fair amount of truth to that assessment. No horse ran a Gowanus Speed Figure (GSF) over 100 in a prep race. All the favorites in the final Derby preps lost. Everyone's favorite, Uncle Mo, ran horribly in his final race. While there's a pretty clear favorite for the race (Dialed In), everyone thinks that pretty much anyone can win it.

We see their point but respectfully disagree. Of the 20 horses entered, several don't belong at all (yes, I know we said that about Mine That Bird too), several seem to be out of their element, and a few others aren't going to love the shape of the race. We do think that after that bottom sector of horses it's pretty wide open, but from a group of 8 horses, not all 20.

Programming note: today we're running our preview and analysis of the horses we think are the Derby Pretenders. Tomorrow morning we'll take a brief interlude to look at the other races being run on Derby Day, then tomorrow afternoon we'll post the rest of our Derby analysis, including our pick. This should get everyone set for their Derby parties and Pick Four bets.

Enough chatter. Let's get to the countdown.

Lacks the Class

20. Watch Me Go. There were 364 horses nominated to the Triple Crown this year, 20 of which were nominated by uber-trainer Todd Pletcher. Pletcher's cast of 20 includes horses everyone knew would be contenders like Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty. It includes some promising horses that didn't quite pan out, like Brethren and Sensational Slam. It also includes horses that had won nothing more than a maiden race and would be hard-pressed to come anywhere near a Triple Crown race, like Cal Nation and Achemenes. He even nominated Imhotep, who hasn't run a race yet. Suffice to say that if you were a Pletcher 3 year old that wasn't nominated to the Triple Crown, the stable did not think much of you.

What does this digression have to do with Watch Me Go? Well, after upsetting the Tampa Bay Derby at 43-1, this obscurely bred colt ran in the Illinois Derby, where he lost by 17 lengths to Joe Vann, a Pletcher horse that wasn't nominated for the Triple Crown. So I ask you: if this guy can't come within a zip code of a horse Todd Pletcher thinks shouldn't be within a mile of the Kentucky Derby, why should we believe he'll be competitive against 19 horses actually in the Derby?

19. Twice the Appeal. We learned our lesson in 2009 about doubting horses that come out of the Sunland Derby. But at least Mine That Bird had won a graded stakes before going to New Mexico and was bred for the distance. This guy's by fleet sprinter Successful Appeal, broken his maiden in a claiming race, and was spotted well to get graded takes earnings to get into the Derby. Given the horse he struggled to beat in the Sunland Derby (Astrology) was just thrashed in the Jerome, we're not sanguine about his chances, even with Calvin Borel aboard.

18. Decisive Moment. The most interesting thing about this guy is that his owner is Just For Fun Stable, which run by some guy named Ruben Sierra. It would be awesome if it were the ex-Yankee slugger; sadly, it appears to just be a breeder in Florida.

You're Running on the Wrong Surface

17. Twinspired. We've now had 4 years to see how horses emerge from synthetic preps to come into the Derby. What have been the results?

• 2007: Street Sense runs 2nd in the Bluegrass and wins the Derby, but it was clear to all from the BC Juvenile and Tampa Bay Derby that he was fit as a fiddle. Winner Dominican and close-up finishers Zanjero, Great Hunter and Teufelsberg do nothing in the Derby.

• 2008: SA Derby winner Colonel John does nothing in the Derby, neither do Monba, Cowboy Cal and Visionaire, the 1-2-5 finishers in the Bluegrass, nor Adriano, who won the Spiral.

• 2009: Bluegrass 1-2 finishers General Quarters and Hold Me Back are up the track in the Derby; SA Derby winner Pioneerofthenile runs a distant second while runner up Chocolate Candy does nothing.
  

• 2010: Bluegrass winner Stately Victor is up the track while runner up Paddy O'Prado runs a decent 3rd in the slop. Sidney's Candy wins the SA Derby but runs horribly in Kentucky, as does 3rd place finisher Lookin at Lucky, albeit with a horrible trip in Kentucky.

So none of the winners of the 8 prep races have won the Derby, and only one (Pioneerofthenile) ran in the money. Others that ran a useful prep have done better, as Street Sense won and Paddy O'Prado was a decent third, and Lookin at Lucky was as hard luck a 6th as you'll ever see.

Can we draw a conclusion from this? Sure. Street Sense really doesn't apply because everyone knew he was a beast on the dirt and his trainer just wanted to use the Bluegrass as a prep. The other three horses, though, all did well because they ran in the slop. And it's not odd for a turf horse to do well in the slop, and it wouldn't be a surprise if synthetic giants did well in the slop as well.

Which brings us back to the stupidly named Twinspired. This guy lost his only dirt start by only 11 1/2 lengths, flopped on the turf, but seems to be at home on the plastic. Sort of. He's only in because he lost a photo in the Bluegrass (in which he was 24-1) and it's his only start where he looked like a horse that belonged in a graded stakes race. He'll be a longshot on Saturday for a reason. Unless it rains.

16. Brilliant Speed. The horse that beat Twinspired by a nose, his dirt starts were even worse, as he ran GSF's of 40 and 32 while losing by a combined 40 1/4 lenghths. He's made himself useful on the grass and was a bit of a surprise in the Bluegrass, but probably should be running in the turf stakes on Friday afternoon.

15. Derby Kitten. Drew into the field at the last moment because Toby's Corner came down with an injury, this is a horse who's run a lot and never made a dent on the dirt. In his first 8 starts, he ran on the turf seven times, only finally breaking his maiden when he was dropped to a claiming race. He ran decent seconds in some overnight turf stakes in Florida, which prompted his connections to ship him to the Lexington, where he pulled off the upset and suddenly his connections became interested in the Derby. They should have been interested in the Hill Prince, as there is zero in this horse's pedigree, ability, or prior start on the dirt to indicate that he can be competitive here.

14. Animal Kingdom. While he's never been out of the exacta in four starts, his only dirt start was nothing to be proud of (an off the turf maiden race that was painfully slow), and was followed by 3 decent turf and synthetic stats. He's bred up and down as a grass horse, and his trainer, Graham Motion, has exhibited zero enthusiasm about running him. Which isn't surprising, because we can't muster much enthusiasm about seeing him run either.

13. Master of Hounds. It's such a wide-open year, why not take a shot with a European, right? Well sure, except this one isn't any good. It took him 4 starts to break his maiden on the grass, then he ran credibly in a Grade 1 in England last October, before flopping in the BC Juvy Turf. Aidan O'Brien started his year in Dubai's "Derby prep", where this colt ran a close second...wait for it...on a synthetic truck. Now he's coming to Kentucky. So we've got another horse bred up and down for turf who seems to be just taking a stab. Given that we've never seen a horse that's actually bred for the dirt ship from across the pond and do anything in the Derby, why should we just a horse that has never won above the maiden level and has never seen a dirt track?

Speed, Speed, Speed

12. Shackleford. It's unclear whether this horse is named after a quaint town in Surrey, England or a seafood and sushi restaurant in the middle of Virginia. Either way, he's here only because he was one of only two horses that decided to run when the gates opened in the Florida Derby, allowing him to hang on for second and earn enough graded stakes money to qualify for the Derby. This guy has "cheap speed" written all over him.

11. Comma to the Top. This horse would be an absolute hoot to own. He's run 13 times so far, has always been healthy, and is a front runner with a little more staying power than his breeding suggests, and will likely be knocking around in good sprint and mile races for a while. That said, he's a pretty intractable front-runner that carves out fast fractions and slows down considerably when the distance meter hits a mile. In fact, he's pretty clearly his the "stop" button in the stretch of his last two races. His connections once recognized this, saying before the Santa Anita Derby that he wasn't on the trail for the Kentucky Derby. They changed their mind after he was gasping for air at the end of the SA Derby and finished second. We haven't.

10. Soldat. Originally thought to be a turf horse, he ran a huge race in the slop at Gulfstream in January, followed by a strong win in the Fountain of Youth when he had his way on the lead. When he didn't make the lead in the Florida Derby, he was nowhere to be found, and his trainer noted that the horse didn't like getting mud kicked in his face. So chances are, to the front he'll go. Where he'll likely get fried and fade.

9. Pants on Fire. The one speed horse that we could see sticking around late if he gets a good trip. This guy won the Louisiana Derby last out in front-running fashion with a couple of caveats: the favorite threw a shoe and didn't run well, and the pace he set was fairly moderate. That said, he held of closing Nehro through the long Fairgrounds stretch and ran a new GSF top in the race. But we think this guy has "bounce" written all over him, and the presence of multiple other speed horses won't help his chances. And the Louisiana Derby was the only race (other than his maiden over a sloppy track) where he didn't fade late. There's a chance this guy has taken a step forward to the next level, but we're not buying it for now, and think he's out of the picture when the serious running begins.

Coming up tomorrow: the contenders, plus a look at the Derby undercard.