2008 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part I: The Synthetic Track Quandary

Let's say it was a week before the Derby, and the esteemed connections of a well-bred and successful steed in Europe announced they were coming over. To date, all the horse's races were on the grass, and he had a good amount of success: wins in half his starts, in the money finishes in the rest. However, he had never left the British Isles, never run on dirt (despite being bred for it), and none of his serious competitors were coming over for the race. What kind of odds would you get on this horse in a year where the competition was so-so at best? Probably somewhere between 10-1 and 20-1, and he'd be regarded as an intriguing oddity at best.

Sound far-fetched and irrelevant? Hardly. Ladies and gentlemen, let me formally introduce you to the world of racing on synthetic surfaces and the probable second choice in the Derby, Colonel John.

Mostly seen prior to 2004 at training tracks and in Europe, synthetic surfaces are replacements for dirt tracks where instead of using conventional dirt/sand combinations as the racing surface, the dirt is replaced by polymers and other odd chemical compounds that create a faux-dirt material to run on. These tracks, which have several forms and names (Polytrack, Cushion Track, Tapeta Track) have some clear advantages over dirt for tracks. They don't hold water like dirt tracks, meaning you always have a "fast" surface and never a mud soup. They don't freeze, which is key for tracks with winter racing. And allegedly (though not definitely), they're easier on horses joints, meaning that it's less likely that there will be breakdowns on the track and that horses will start more frequently. (Or so tracks were told--the data to date has been fairly inconclusive.)

The movement towards synthetic surfaces began about 3-4 years ago, when a few minor tracks decided to adopt it, and were followed by Keeneland, who runs an elite boutique meet every April and October, both in the interest of horse safety. Then, in the wake of the injury to America's Horse, Barbaro, in 2006 California took the amazingly over-aggressive step of mandating that all tracks convert their dirt surfaces to synthetics within a year. Their rationale was simple: it's dirt but safer! Horses will live longer! What was wrong with that?

Here's the catch: it's not remotely the same as dirt. Time after time, race after race, we've seen horses that do well dirt flop on synthetics, and vice versa. Instead, a goofy trend has emerged: horses that do well on grass have proven to do well on synthetics. Additionally, synthetic tracks have turned American breeding on its head: whereas dirt tracks generally favor early speed and thus breeders will breed with an eye towards speed from the gate, front runners flop on synthetics, as the tracks are too tiring in nature. This became so apparent in California that stalwart Bob Baffert took all of his young horses out of Del Mar last summer and shipped them to Saratoga, which has a conventional dirt track.

We had our first look at racing in a synthetic world last year, as the 2007 Blue Grass, Keeneland's Derby prep, was run on Polytrack. The result was a bizarrely run race where the horses did nothing for the first 2/3 of the race, and sprinted to the finish line with four horses finishing in a blanket finish. One was Street Sense, the Derby winner 3 weeks later. The other 3 horses, Zanjero, Teufelsberg and Dominican, could only be found in the Derby if you brought a telescope. Essentially, the race was a total toss-out and a paid workout for the quartet, and you had to handicap the Derby by basically ignoring the last race.

Fast forward a year later, and we've got synthetic tracks wreaking further havoc with the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Firstly, we had another Blue Grass Stakes last Saturday, which was won by Monba over Cowboy Cal, and where the favorites, Pyro, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man and Big Truck did next to nothing. This creates the quandary of figuring out how to evaluate those that ran well (especially Cowboy Cal, whose other wins came on turf), and what to do with the losers, as it would buck history to run 10th in your race before the Derby then win the damn thing.

Second and more problematically, we've got horses that have run only over synthetic surfaces to date, the most notable being Colonel John, whose Santa Anita Derby win was very impressive, but once again, not on a dirt surface. Colonel John's record to date is pretty impressive, and his breeding is a pure thumbs-up on getting the Derby distance. But all he's proven to date is that he's a monster on fake dirt. What the hell is he going to do on real dirt?

I refuse to go the route of Cranky Plagiarist Andy Beyer and call it impossible or unfair to handicap the Derby. But the omnipresence of these synthetic surfaces is adding a new wrinkle that's making the Derby puzzle even more challenging and a lot less fun in the process. (The flip side, of course, is that everyone is more confused, meaning if you're right, you'll make more money as a result.) It remains to be seen if there are any benefits of synthetic surfaces, but we've definitely found a downside: racing now has a 3rd surface, much like tennis, which is difficult to equate to anything else, and makes evaluating developing horses even trickier.

Coming up in the next few weeks: another look at what it takes to win the Derby, and then our annual countdown from worst to first.

Preakness Preview

Saturday brings us the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown, brought to you from Pimlico Race Course in Maryland. A couple of key differences between the two races: while the Derby was 1 1/4 miles, the Preakness shortens up to 1 3/16 miles, thanks to the goofy configuration of Pimlico. Additionally, while they get a good crowd at the Preakness (100,000+), it's not quite as much a madhouse as the Derby. Unless you're in the infield, where you'll see more unflattering topless UM co-eds than you ever knew existed.

As the middle leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness has always been something of the ugly stepchild of the 3 year old trilogy. It's not at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles, and isn't the "Test of Champions", it's instead more analogous to a pit stop on the way from horse capital Kentucky to New York. It obviously doesn't get as strong a field as the Derby (though few races do), and while it's more formful as a result of the smaller fields, it's also a bit less exciting in that you're unlikely to see a bomb win the race like Giacomo or Charismatic. And even winning the race, while a tremendous accomplishment, borders on anticlimactic--either you've foiled a Triple Crown bid, or you've cleared a necessary hurdle en route to the real test in the Belmont.

Further making the Preakness something of the Fredo Corleone of the Triple Crown family is the fact that trainers now routinely skip the race to point for the Belmont, rather than run back on 2 weeks rest after the Derby. Indeed, to some level, you have to ask whether the Preakness has become a racing anachronism by its goofy timing. This was once heresy, as horses used to never win the Belmont without running in the Preakness or another horse within 2-3 weeks of the Belmont. But we've seen this broken numerous times in recent years, with Commendable, Empire Maker, Birdstone and Jazil all pulling the trick of skipping the Preakness and pointing for the Belmont victoriously. By contrast, this century we've only seen Point Given and Afleet Alex pull the Preakness-Belmont double after losing the Derby. (This fact is also reflected in the fact we've seen Bernardini and Red Bullet win the Preakness without competing in the Derby, something that hadn't occurred since Tank's Prospect in 1983.) As a result, instead of seeing races full of Derby horses taking another shot, we've gotten multiple incarnations of second-string 3 year olds taking on the leviathans from the Derby, with blow-out results--ignoring the Barbaro fiasco last year, the last 3 Preaknesses were all romps.

Then, of course, there's the 800 pound gorilla in the room, namely, the dying financial viability of Maryland racing in general and Pimlico specifically, which is always the subject of a cranky article by Plagarizing Andy Beyer every Preakness week. Pimlico, on its best day, is one of the ugliest sports facilities known to mankind, below the level of Olympic Stadium and a bowling alley in Camden. It's a money pit to the state 364 days of the year, with Preakness day and its 100,000 denizens being the only saving grace to the state's racing year. Compounding the problem is that while all the neighboring states (Delaware, West Virginia, and now Pennsylvania) have slot machines churning money that goes right back into purses, and thus gets the better horses and fuller fields, Maryland's stymied in a non-slots world, a death sentence if you're a track outside of New York, Kentucky and Florida. With the track decaying, and a once proud racing state now approaching financial brinkmanship at the track, there have been rumors the Preakness may get moved to somewhere else in the future. I'll believe it when I see it (i.e., when Magna racing cuts its losses in Maryland), but to say it's a precarious position is putting it nicely.

Regardless, we're confronted with the fact that Street Sense is two victories away from the Triple Crown. Who's in this race and what are their chances? Let's go in reverse order of preference, once again.

We're Just Happy to Be Here

#9: Mint Slewlep. On the Preakness undercard in 1999, a depressed and suicidal patron jumped onto the racetrack and stood in the path of Artax on the hope that he'd mow him down. As a result, Artax pulled up and lost the race to Yes It's True. We'll need about a dozen drunken Terrapins or the Stanford band to pull off a similar stunt here to give this guy a shot.

#8: Xchanger. The upside on this guy is that he's won on the track, with a win in the Federico Tesio 4 weeks ago, which has produced the occasional board hitter like Magic Weisner (2002) and the aforementioned Tank's Prospect. Unfortunately, it's also produced execrable commodities like Malibu Moonshine and Ah Day. This guy looks like a pure pace factor (in a race laden with early speed) and really isn't that fast, and you have to expect he'll be running in the wrong direction by the far turn.

#7: Flying First Class. You want to like this horse because he's popped a triple digit Gowanus Speed Figure and has D. Wayne Lukas in his corner. Then you back up and realize that he's also early speed in a race full of front runners, Lukas hasn't done shit in years, and that he's run nothing shy of horribly in both his route races. This really is a poor spot for him to run, he should be sprinting. Can we future him to win the King's Bishop?

Exotics Fodder, Potentially

#6: King of the Roxy. The second horse Todd Pletcher has ever run in the Preakness, with the first being the plodder Impeachment in 2000, who clunked up for a distant third. He's going to get a ton of action because of the Pletcher factor and because he ran 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, but he's also really a sprinter trying to sneak off with a route race. It's very VERY telling that Pletcher & Team Valor, both players who spot their horses smartly yet aggressively gave the Derby absolutely no consideration either before or after the Santa Anita Derby, and instead are trying to steal a consolation prize in a weaker race. He'll be horrendously underlaid, and while he could hit 3rd if the race falls apart, I don't believe he's remotely relevant in this race.

#5: C P West. Named for Central Park West, Nick Zito sat out this year's Derby to bring the Withers runner-up to this spot instead, and somewhat wisely so, as this guy hasn't had enough of a 3yo campaign to have made him Derby ready. He was a hyped two-year old that still hasn't developed, but he's very VERY eligible to improve in his third start of the year. He also exits the Withers, which has produced Bernardini (winner, 2006) and Scrappy T (runner-up, 2005) in the last couple of years. Can't see him winning. Can see him improving for a trifecta finish.

The Sucker Horse

#4: Hard Spun. He gets ranked above the others because unlike those hopeless causes, he actually has a shot to win this race, but no, I'm not coming within 30 miles of him. I thank him and Larry Jones for running well in the Derby and giving me the exacta, but this is where I bid them adieu. I'm not the first person to notice this parallel, but I draw you back to 2003 and 2004, where good speed horses in Peace Rules and Lion Hearted, respectively, ran great 3rds and 2nds in the Derby, and everyone thought the cut-back in distance would help them. Right? Nope. Both of them were nowhere to be found when the finish line arrived, finishing over a dozen lengths behind the winners, not to mention their defeats to luminaries such as Scrimshaw and Eddington. History repeats itself here; this guy runs with the longshots up front, then begins to back up at the top of the turn and finishes well out of the money. The good news? He'll be about 3-1 with everyone and their brother playing the "shortening up" angle and operating under the misguided notion that Pimlico favors front runners (it doesn't), putting a ton of free money in the pot for the rest of us.

Actual Contenders

#3: Street Sense. Um....didn't this guy just win the Derby? Well, yes. There's obviously a ton to like, not the least of which is his breeding, his speed, and the fact he's been expertly trained to date. Yet, I can't get past the sneaking suspicion that this is the racing equivalent of a "trap game" for this horse. Putting aside the large reservations that I have that he's clearly a Churchill Downs freak (which may or may not translate elsewhere) and that he got a clean and ground-saving trip in the Derby, there are two bigger, nagging issues here. First, Carl Nafzger has freely admitted that he single-mindedly prepared Street Sense for the Derby, and gave essentially no thought whatsoever to what came after. I don't love that; I can't fault Nafzger for pointing for Derby immortality, but it's worth noting that Unbridled in 1990 flopped in the Preakness after this stellar Derby. Second, and more importantly, something that hasn't been much discussed is the distinct possibility that there was a severe rail bias on Derby Day. Consider that not only did Street Sense rally up the rail, but also that Hard Spun held clear after torrid fractions and longshot Sedgefield ran a huge race while also taking the golden rail. Maybe the three of them were riding a bias to the nth degree (something the earlier dirt races don't disprove). If so, he's a prime candidate to regress.

I freely admit that I play the contrarian more often than not in picking races, but this is a time where I think it's somewhat justified. He's a hideous play at even money, and while he may put a huge effort up on Saturday, he won't be my pick to repeat. A much more interesting idea, though, is...

#2: Circular Quay. I'm borderline shocked that this horse is running in the Preakness, as he & King of the Roxy will be the 2nd and 3rd horses Pletcher has saddled in this race, after the immortal Impeachment clunked up for third in 2000. Pletcher generally doesn't love to run back horses on short rest (not the case with King of the Roxy, who's been dormant for 6 weeks), which makes the idea of running this guy even more intriguing, as clearly blood is smelled by the nation's best trainer. Let's also look at the fact that this guy ran fairly well off an 8-week layoff in the Derby, when he changed paths about 7 times and took the overland route to a better-than-it-looked 6th place finish. Now, it'd be folly to argue that the Derby was a prep for the Preakness, but it certainly may have been a tightener for a horse that needs it. The downside? I still don't love that this horse hasn't had any success at 1 1/8 miles, and his best stakes win was a 7 furlong sprint at Saratoga last year. But the pace looks to be strong, and he'll be flying late. Prime contender, to say the least.

The Winner

#1: Curlin. Unlike Circular Quay and to some degree Street Sense, I don't think we've seen this horse's best, and his 3rd place finish in the Derby (which I called extremely unlikely, proving my accumen) was a very, very good effort for a horse making his 4th start. I like him to improve even more here, sitting a better trip than he did last out (when his post hurt him tremendously) off a torrid pace and getting first run on the closers, who will have to wear him down. Like Circular Quay, I also think the Derby was a great effort to get some fitness into the horse; witness the fact he's only had a slow maintenence work since then to keep him on his toes. This is the race he moves forward and establishes himself as the co-top horse of the class with Street Sense.

The Picks

1st: Curlin
2nd: Circular Quay
3rd: Street Sense
4th: C P West

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the races!

Kentucky Derby Preview Part III: The Contenders, The Exotic Fodder, and The Winner

As I'm publishing this on Friday morning/afternoon, there's little to no chance that unlike my first posting, Andy Beyer will try to plagarize the insightful and pithy comments I have to offer here. Well, presumably. Maybe I should write a race recap now, and see if that gets picked up by the Washington Post as well. Then again, in years past that would have meant seeing results charts in the Derby with the likes of Point Determined, Bandini, Borrego, Ten Most Wanted, Private Emblem and Vicar on top. So maybe that's not the best idea.

But to address the one question I've gotten repeatedly this week first---what's it like to be at the Kentucky Derby? Well, it's a combination of Mardi Gras and a formal outdoor garden party. Sitting in the same row, you'll have yuppies in golf shirts, crazies in beer-soaked t-shirts, and sophisticates in their best dresses. And the hats are wild. And there's the random celebrity sightings that just add a bit to it: not only will the racing afficianado love seeing Mr. & Mrs. Baffert randomly strolling about with binoculars (though not this year since they have no runners), you'll also random see Kirsten Dunst sneaking in a smoke sans makeup or Michael Imperioli trying to compute a trifecta ticket. It's truly one of the great experiences of Americana, and must be attended by all. WITH a mint julep, a drink that unfairly gets a bad rap. (If you like slurpees & bourbon, you're all set.)

We now come to the top half of the Derby field, horses that certainly have a shot to win on Saturday, though obviously, that's not gonna be the case for 9 of them. Let's start with those horses that have a shot, but really aren't all that interesting when analyzed.

Unexcititing & Ultimately Harmless

#10: Scat Daddy. The fantastically named son of Johannesburg exits a gutty win in the Florida Derby to come as Todd Pletcher's main charge. Say what you will about this guy (and I will), but he fights with the best of them in races. The problem? Well, outside of the fact his breeding doesn't scream for that 10th furlong, it's that he's plateaued in speed figures. He was already looking strong last July, and you somehow feel like you've already seen his best. He's reminiscent of horses we see every year that have nice resumes, but are just wholly unexciting and somehow indicate to you they're not gonna do it on the big day (examples being Brother Derek in '06, High Fly '05, Peace Rules '03). Looks to me like a middle of the pack finish is going to be capped off by a long rest and a bid at the Haskell.

#9: Nobiz Like Shobiz. He and Scat Daddy are pretty inseparable at the end of the day. There's not really a ton to criticize here either, outside of his utter failure to improve at all from a Beyer, er, Gowanus Speed Figure standpoint. It's amazing, if the general public wasn't armed with speed figures, these two guys would probably be the favorites from their outstanding records and nice wins in prep races. Instead? The world, myself included, is focused a bit more on others.

The Wildcard

#8: Dominican. Here's the horse that's the toughest to decipher in the field by far. He's undefeated on Polytrack, a faux-dirt surface that's almost more comparable to grass than dirt. He's winless on dirt, by contrast, though his efforts haven't been poor. And he's 2-for-2 this year, meaning he's up against it in terms of being shy a prep race, but he did win the Blue Grass. So what's happened? There's three possibilities: (1) He's a Polytrack freak; (2) He grew into himself; or (3) He's thriving because his owners cut off his undescended testicle. No, that's not a joke.

In his last start as a juvenile, Dominican, who is a son of El Corredor, ran third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) behind Tiz Wonderful and Any Given Saturday for owners Bonnie and Tommy Hamilton's Silverton Hill. After the race he received a layoff and was gelded.

"It was a tough decision to make, but he was a ridgling and he was uncomfortable so we needed to do so," trainer Darrin Miller said. "It was a matter of physical comfort. He is a very aggressive horse and that hasn't changed."

Well then. Whatever works, right? As imitation of what's worked before is the norm in horse racing, I weep for the fate of male horse genitalia should Dominican win.

For Exotic Purposes Only

#7: Circular Quay. He's up against it on a lot of fronts. He's a dead closer who hasn't run in 8 weeks by design, has only had 2 races, and has yet to go 9 furlongs, let alone 10. On the positive side, he's pretty quick, he's talented, he's got The Pletcher Factor on his side, his breeding and running style suggest he'll like the distance, and . Split the difference--I see him flying late but ultimately falling short. Tough to leave out of your triples and superfectas.

#6: Zanjero. Often a bridesmaid, never the bride. He's a well-bred closer that has a propensity for running evenly and finishing in the money, with minimal threat to the winners. Hell, he's now done this four times in a row, and it's quite possible that he'll do it once again on Saturday. So why this ranking? Well, he's gaining something of "wise-guy" status amongst the horse racing cognoscenti (whoever the hell that encompasses), and I'm of the impression that he's going to be a lot closer to 20-1 than 40-1, despite him having minimal actual chance at winning. A must use "underneath", but not the price play you'd think he should be for a horse that's only broken his maiden. No, the price play to hit the board is...

#5: Liquidity. While picking the winner is obviously key to making money on Derby day, equally key is finding a well-priced horse to come in the money underneath. A good way to do it? Find a horse that was well-backed last out, flopped (preferably with an excuse) and back him if there's a fair reason to do so. Horses fitting this mold include Bluegrass Cat in '06 (2nd at 33-1); Atswhatimtalkinabout in '03 (4th at ~20-1); and Invisible Ink in '01 (2nd at 55-1). Because there are so many horses of quality in the race, the Derby is a great shot to find a talented horse at a square price. So what makes Liquidity the answer? As the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby, he's shipped and run well, has tactical speed in a race that has less pace than you'd normally expect, and is nicely bred. Yeah, his last race stunk, but he'll be at least 40-1 on Saturday. A great fodder piece for your exotics.

#4: Tiago. Giacomo's baby brother who rallies well and is reminiscent of his sibling with his closing style and connections. And since I have nothing else to add about a relative of the worst Derby winner....let's here it for the Queen of England coming to Kentucky this year! She kicked off her trip to the US with a stop in Jamestown to celebrate its 400th birthday, presumably forgetting that we spent the first 180 years trying to get rid of the throne at all costs. And while the good Queen does admire the Sport of Kings, it's just too bad the Queen Mum isn't around anymore, because she was the true racing fan in the family.

Top Challengers

#3: Hard Spun. Dammit. If this guy were trained by someone I trusted and ridden by a jockey I actually thought was any good, he'd probably be my top pick at a fair price. He's extremely well bred for the distance, fast enough, has only one blemish in a weird race in Arkansas, and had a strong prep last out. His form negatives are really only the fact he hasn't run in 6 weeks....which brings me to Larry Jones. Originally the plan was to have him skip the Derby and point for the Preakness becaues they thought he may not like the track at Churchill, which is utterly bizzare. Then they gave him a workout on the track about 3 weeks ago, where he did well, and thus course was changed, and into the Derby we go.....off an unplanned 6-week layoff. To top it off, his jockey, Mario Pino, is best known for winning the Federico Tesio stakes in three consecutive years. Yeah, exactly. And lastly, Jones decided to run him insanely fast in a work out last week that probably knocked the crap out of him. I want to like him. Really, I do. But I think he's been mismanaged to the point where he may not have it on Saturday. Too bad, because he's a good one.

#2: Any Given Saturday. We now come to Todd Pletcher's 5th and final horse. Has to be a record right? Nobody's started five horses in the Derby before, have they? Well...it's actually happened twice. Pletcher's mentor D. Wayne Lukas started 5 in 1996, and one of his least heralded, Grindstone, nosed out Cavonnier for the win. Then, in 2005, Principal McVicker sound-alike Nick Zito brought a quintet to Churchill, but couldn't muster a finish better than 7th. I'll split the difference here and give the runner up spot to a horse that seems to hang and not be able to close the deal for the win repatedly. He's plenty fast, and should be cycling to a big effort off a "regression" in the Wood last out after a nose loss in the Tampa Bay Derby. Pletcher's been pointing for this with this horse since he lost to Tiz Wonderful last November, and I gotta think he's gonna have him cranked and ready to go. Small downside---EVERYONE likes this horse as their "sleeper". We'll be lucky to get 10-1 on him.

The Champion

#1: Street Sense. This guy has two historical negatives against him, the first one being the Juvenile Jinx, which I find silly, as we're looking at a sample size too small to be meaningful. It's the fact he's only run twice this year that's disturbing. But taking a step back, let's look at the horse's record for a minute. He's won his last three races on dirt tracks not covered in water. His two Polytrack efforts were both solid if unspectacular. He has a great turn of foot, and while he won't be on the pace, he won't be 30 lengths back either. His traine is tremendous. And most importantly, he's just the fastest horse in the face. His speed figures are only approached by Curlin, who I think is too green for this, and Any Given Saturday, who's also a sensible choice. But while the 2 starts this year is a small problem, I think it's more than offset by his good foundation as a 2-year old (5 races) and his repeated efforts at route distances. I think the curse ends on Saturday, and we're all complaining that we overthought this at about 7 pm.

The Play

If you're betting under $10 in the race, I suggest you stick to win bets---the favorite's either going to be Curlin or Street Sense, and neither will be below 5-2. There's nothing wrong with tripling your money if you're right. My play? I'm "keying" Street Sense & Any Given Saturday over the 5 horses below them on this vaunted list. And to make the picks official:

1. Street Sense
2. Any Given Saturday
3. Tiago
4. Dominican

Enjoy the race!

[Hey, anyone know who won the race? Wait, what? Street Sense won? Who guessed that? Oh, wait, Ang did. Point GRBG.--Teddy]