Thus Spake PECOTA

With our armchair analysis in the books, it's time to wheel out the big analytical guns. We've run the rosters of each team through the PECOTA projection system put out by Baseball Prospectus and come up with something resembling a objective crack at a predicted order of finish. But before we get to the results, let's lay out our methodology and some problems with the system up front. Do us a favor and read all this before you flip out about the predictions, OK?

We took each team's best-projected hitter at each position, even if a team plans to start someone else, in order to take the human element out of the process. No effort was made to account for the production of replacement or bench hitters, because it all just got too complicated, and the whole point here was to use something other than our subjective opinion to predict the league.

For pitchers, we did our best to projected the starting 9 plus the best bench pitcher, to better reflect how teams actually use their staffs in this league. We should also say that these standings are incredibly close in places; one change in a closer job can (and has) moved the predictions around pretty good.

Now, here are the three major problems with all this.

Problem: The system chokes on injury and risk.

Take A-Rod. PECOTA sensibly takes a bite out of his projected production to account for his existing injury. But he still has the best projected full-season line of any 3B on his owner's roster. So A-Rod's line goes into the projection. However, by doing so the projection entirely omits the production the team will get from whatever random guy they plug in until A-Rod is healthy. This means that team's counting stats will be understated, and its rate stats might be overstated. This hurts more for stud offensive players, because each has 4 counting stats and 1 rate stat, than it does for pitchers, who have 2 real counting stats and 2 rate stats.

Similarly, PECOTA takes a bite out of the projection of players who are big injury risks going forward. This especially hurts pitchers, as they tend to have larger risk profiles. So if a guy has a 60% chance of blowing out his arm, PECOTA docks about 60% of his counting stats. Again, while that approach makes some sense, it doesn't factor in replacement performance.

Along those same lines, the system probably underrates stars-and-scrubs teams by assuming that they'll roll with the same scrubs all year rather than sort through the waiver wire for a guy having a fluke year.

The point is that the system underrates the chances of high-risk, high-reward teams. So bear that in mind when you see the projected standings.

Problem: The system does not factor in owner performance.

Good owners can add value in two ways. They can manage well, taking the guys on their roster and mixing and matching them to best effect. Or they can GM well, adding to their roster through pickups and trades. Since we have no idea what will happen on either of those fronts, the predictions just take the rosters as given. The projections show what the likely outcome would be if we all set our lineups on Opening Day and then came back in October to see who won. If you don't like your prediction, well, go manage your way up.

Problem: PECOTA likes what PECOTA likes.

PECOTA has a good reputation. However, it isn't perfect. It has its darlings (like Matt Wieters and A.J. Burnett) and bete noires (like Ichiro, who PECOTA seems to think will be crushed by a falling piano at some point this year, and David Ortiz, who it thinks is cooked). Projections are only as good as the inputs used to generate them; if you think PECOTA is dumb, you'll think the projections are dumb.

With all that in mind, we present the PECOTA-projected Wankdorf standings for the upcoming season:

	Pitching	Hitting	Total
It's Enrico Palazzo	47	41.5	88.5
Wu Tang Financial	46	42	88
Unenviable Position	44.5	41	85.5
Evil League of Evil	35	38	73
Mission Accomplished	26.5	46.5	73
Recalcitrant Cobblers	33.5	34	67.5
The Loose Bowels	34	33	67
wormcheese mousebird	23	32.5	55.5
The Spam Avengers	29.5	24	53.5
Elbow Your Funicular?	25	25.5	50.5
Le Dupont Torkies	32.5	16	48.5
Aroids Anonymous	14.5	15	29.5

If you don't like them, go to Russia. Or just call Baseball Prospectus and yell at them. IEP, pressure's on you.

Edit--by popular request, here are the raw totals PECOTA came up with.

PITCHING	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Chad	84	86	1130	3.89	1.29
Ang	86	13	1069	4.12	1.37
Sahil	79	80	1004	4.13	1.32
Will	74	109	919	4.08	1.35
Jake	77	70	1012	3.73	1.31
Alex	71	87	1014	3.95	1.31
Jon	76	90	1073	3.76	1.27
Corey	66	91	912	4.20	1.37
Scot	80	86	1038	3.91	1.31
Elders	66	100	1047	3.96	1.30
Andrew	91	41	1160	3.84	1.28
Tucker	66	143	932	3.85	1.31
HITTING	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP
Chad	751	227	749	104	0.358
Ang	790	196	750	106	0.366
Sahil	756	178	715	138	0.353
Will	712	196	749	69	0.352
Jake	754	187	739	98	0.358
Alex	741	153	664	130	0.353
Jon	765	188	678	125	0.365
Corey	719	150	648	107	0.350
Scot	757	193	730	88	0.360
Elders	735	190	736	82	0.361
Andrew	773	187	757	82	0.361
Tucker	682	184	708	78	0.353

Five Oddities in NL MVP Voting

Joe Sheehan's already done a bang-up job in analyzing why Jimmy Rollins shouldn't have won the NL MVP (for roughly the same reasons Justin Morneau shouldn't have won last year), though I don't really agree with his conclusions---the defense a first baseman has to offer is pretty much whateverific, and Chase Utley, to me, was the best player in the NL all year when healthy. But enough about the winners. I use this platform to note five oddities from the voting results, which can be found here:

(1) All of those carping about Ryan Braun beating out Troy Tulowitzki for Rookie of the Year (and I'm looking at.....you, Mr. Neyer) can take solace in the fact that somehow, despite the exact same people voting for both awards, Mr. Troy finished a good 11 points ahead of Braun in the MVP voting. Most of the 11-point differential between the two stems from a rogue 3rd place vote for TT, presumably from someone voting with Dan O'Dowd in the room.

(2) I'd like to find the voter who put Prince Fielder 8th and shake his hand. He's the only person to put him below 4th, and he's the only person that's right.

(3) I watched Carlos Beltran play the entire year. Check that---I watched Carlos Beltran saunter about like an injured elephant for 5 months, and then start to play after the Feast of the Assumption. He was a waste of money for 3/4 of the year. So of course, he merits a pair of 8th place votes. Good job of paying attention, lads.

(4) Is Brandon Phillips the first player ever to get the only MVP votes from his team when he wasn't the most valuable player on his team? Outside of steals and shortness, there isn't a category where Adam Dunn didn't whup his ass. Phillips isn't awful, but please, tell me his stats are different from Chris Sabo with speed. Or on speed for that matter.

(5) And lastly, and most hilariously, there's the person who voted Carlos Marmol for a 10th place vote. This is even more laughable than when the Hall of Fame ballot comes out and players like Gary Gaetti and Scot Sanderson are nominated. I realize that VORP doesn't tell everything, and I'm going to piss off Jon Heyman by using numbers, but Marmol's VORP was squarely between Greg Maddux and John Maine for NL pitchers, and roughly equivalent to that of Fat Squirrel for position players, and we already know my feelings on him. I have to think the guy who made this vote lost a bet.

This lends itself to an obvious question: why do we allow voters 10 spots on the MVP ballot? Has someone ever won because of a 9th or 10th place vote? (Maybe Pudge?) Why not just give them 3 or 5 and be done with it?

HACKING MASS

If you're a BP person, that's right, it's time for HACKING MASS! For those not familiar with the exercise, BP runs a contest yearly for you to assemble by Easter the worst lineup of a player at every position and two non-Rockies starters. Points aren't just accumulated for sucktitude--you have to play as well. Picking up Kelly Stinnett, in other words, will do you no good.

Last year I managed to be one of about 4 people to pick Josh Towers, who was one of the 3 worst pitchers in the league....and still managed to finish in the bottom 3% thanks to the great picks of Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teahen and Dan Uggla. Pure genius. On that note, here is The Official Gowanus HACKING MASS Team:

C: Brad Ausmus
1B: Ryan Shealy
2B: Luis Castillo
3B: Jose Castillo
SS: Tony Pena, Jr.
LF: Chris Duncan
CF: Juan Pierre
RF: Shawn Green
SP: Kyle Lohse
SP: Carlos Silva

Let's hear from some of the other pinheads with their squads. Worst (best?) team in the league gets beer from the others.