Les Curieux Evenements: A Slightly Sheepish Season Summary

So, um, how was your summer?

Contrary to published reports, we here at the GRBG did not succumb to The Plague. We did, however, have our hands full with new babies and reclusive copper heiresses, to the point where the blog sort of withered on the vine.

We're not sure what that means for our output going forward. But we are sure that we're going to redeem this season as best we can with an omnibus season wrap-up post. We'll start with our usual accountability check on the league's predictions, and finish off with the updated all-time league standings. (Teddy)

I had wanted to do something like this at the end of the season, so kudos to my esteemed co-author for taking the lead here.  In any event, 7800 soiled diapers, 90 depositions, and a dozen inexplicable Taylor Teagarden hits later, here we are.  Let's try to get some year-end commentary together.  (El Angleo)

12: The Moon Colonists (League Prediction: 10th)

We never got a chance to TA the early May trade in which the Colonists traded Matt Kemp, Roy Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Grasso, and Mario Manningham to Quoth the Jennings in return for a 1, Ike Davis, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Madson, and the draft rights to five-month-old Garrett Hamm-Garciaparra. At the time many were worried that the trade would ruin the league. Those people turned out to be right, not for the expected reason that the trade put the Jennings over the top.
No, the trade was cataclysmic because it gave Angelo FOUR picks in next year’s first round. If we manage a livedraft next year, the combination of four Angelo #1s plus half a case of Mickey’s grenades should lead to hilarity. In light of that, further analysis of this team is mostly beside the point. (Teddy)

Kudos to those who had predicted me for DAFL and to Teddy for noting in our season-opening post that my squad had a good chance to tank this year because of its odd structure.  What's most notable about my season, other than the uber-trade, is just how putrid my draft was; only Addison Reed can be counted as a remotely useful player that I took.  By contrast, the waiver wire yielded Austin Jackson, Chase Headley, R.A. Dickey, and Kris Medlen.  So maybe those picks next year should be dealt for waiver priority.  (El Angelo)

11. 1st mouse late bird (League Prediction: 3d)

Well, not so much on that prediction. The Cockamouses looked like legit board candidates at the start of the year. But the worst 10 weeks of Albert Pujols’s career torpedoed them before they could even get started, and led to a tear-down trade intended to get the franchise back some of what it had given up in next year’s draft. All of the various trades were defensible based on where the team found itself at the time, although the unfortunate net effect is that they are going to have to reboot using a non-lottery first rounder next year. Luck plays a role here. (Teddy)

Teddy's noted this before but slow starts just annihilate you in rotisserie leagues, because come June, you'll be so far out of it that you have no clue what to do to improve.  The Healer's options to get better as the season went on were limited by the lack of a #1 for next year to use as a chip, but even if he dealt that for 8 useful players, it may not have been enough.  Right idea, some bad luck at the end of the day.  (El Angelo)

10. Spreading Santorum (League Prediction: 12)

 It's not easy to finish in 10th when you own the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years. Or, wait, maybe it is easy as long as you only get 8 pitching points. This was not the year to have drafted Jonathan Sanchez. (Teddy)

In addition to Miggy, this offense also had a bunch of guys who had really good years on offense -- Mark Trumbo, Michael Bourn, Elvis Andrus, and even an out of nowhere comeback for Toriiiiiiii.  But this really turned out to be one of the worst pitching staffs in memory.  When Johan St. Johan went down, Jason Vargas became their stopper.  That's wrong on multiple levels.  (El Angelo)

9. Jeters Never Prosper (League Prediction: 1st(!))

Whoops! Led by a uterly flabbergasting season from Derek Jeter, the shaky preseason IF actually held its own this year. Instead, the great god of Pitcher Variance up and bit them in the ass this year—Josh Johnson and Dan Haren were each among the 15 worst BABIPs in the league among SPs. There’s just not all that much you can do about that. The team rebounded a bit towards the end of the season, even as they traded away their only effective pitcher in Jered Weaver.  Of course, rebounding from 11th to 9th arguably just made things worse. (Teddy)

This roster was laden with guys who a lot of people thought would have huge breakthrough years -- Jesus Montero, Matt Moore, Dexter Fowler, and Yu Darvish.  While Darvish was fine, the others never really elevated their level to the greatness that was hoped for, offsetting a somewhat shocking year -- well, part year -- from Melky Cabrera and Jeter.  This actually strikes me as a team that's going to have a scary keeper list and a good pick to boot next year.  (El Angelo)

8. Quoth the Jennings (League Prediction: 9th)

As team cousin Ken Jennings would quoth in the form of a question, WTF?  So, Roy Halladay and Adrian Gonzalez suck now, I guess? (BTW, what was the Vegas line on Gonzalez getting traded in both fantasy and reality this year?)  I have to say, there but for the grace of Pedro go I, because I would have targeted a lot of the same players back in May if I’d had the chance (did try, unsuccessfully, to poach a few of them in August). The team unwound its position pretty well under the circumstances, but they were selling into a bear market. (Teddy)

The best news for this team is that they didn't burn a year of Bryce Harper's eligibility by keeping him on the prospect list the entire season.  Beyond that cold comfort, few fantasy teams have ever had as large a gap between name recognition and performance.  Wright and Heyward obviously had great years, but other guys regressed incomprehensibly -- namely, Kemp and Gonzalez -- or were quietly underperforming alll year (Starlin Castro, McCann).  Or you could simply say that this team gave nearly 1000 at-bats to Mets, so of course they sucked.  (El Angelo)

7. Le Dupont Torkies (League Prediction: 11th)

Maybe the first genuinely boring season in Torkies history, which can probably be chalked up to the owner's midseason acquisition of another future J. Crew Kids-model baby. The team bumped up against the limits of its closer-centric roster--they could have given up 50 saves and only lost 1 point in the standings. But the real problems were on offense, where they couldn't do anything but run.

BTW, our preview for this team was a hilarious mix of prescient analysis (we nailed the forthcoming offensive problems) and shame-spiraling stupidity (we managed to shit on Gio Gonzalez and Johnny Cueto in the space of a single sentence). Why do we do these accountability posts again? (Teddy)

Since I don't have a ton to add, let's look at those pre-season predictions.  We've taken everyone's predictions and scored them by delta -- i.e., if you picked Chad to finish 4th, you get 2 points for being off by 2 slots.  Amazingly, of the 8 ballots submitted, 6 were in the band of 44 - 48 points, meaning three quarters of the voters were off by basically 3 1/2 to 4 slots per team.  The first outlier was Jon, who had a delta of 39 and correctly picked Scot to win it all (and another finish correctly down the ballot).  The other?  Sir Teddy himself, at a garrish 52 points, which is amazing because it includes two dead-on predictions, albeit of teams we've already covered.  (El Angelo)

6. Wu Tang Financial (League Prediction: 8th)

The first of two eminently respectable finishes for the Elders boys this year. This was the first year since 2008 that both of them finished in the first division (and it's only the second time ever). If WTF can find some table-setter types in the draft next year, they could be frisky. (Teddy)

If the September Tim Lincecum actually is who shows up for the entire year next year, these guys are starting off with a helluva rotation.  A nice season for this team that needs a couple of bats and some luck at the closer slot to make a run at it next year.  (El Angelo)

5. The Spam Avengers (League Prediction: 2d)

A good-looking preseason roster was torpedoed by injuries to Mariano Rivera (a big reason why the team finished DAFL in saves) and Jacoby Ellsbury (whose loss opened up a hole in the OF that they never quite filled. Honestly, looking at their end of season roster, it still seems like they should have done better than a distant 5th. (Teddy)

Their season was caused in party by one of the effects of our keeper structure, as it completely robbed them of any depth.  A deeper team could overcome losing Joey Votto and Ellsbury for over 120 games combined, but that depth was simply hard to come by when they only kept 4 hitters and picked in the 12-slot two straight years.  I also think that this owner saw the writing on the wall early on -- that Scot was going to be hard to catch -- and decided not to make a run at a bronze medal by giving up future assets.  The result was a non-threatening 5th.  (El Angelo)

4. Suicide By Jaguar (League Prediction: 6th)

Ouch, babe. This was the closest 3rd/4th place finish since 2003, when Angelo edged Jon off the board by 2.5 points As you can see here, the team fell off a cliff in August and never made it all of the way back. Still, though, this went a long way toward restoring the reputation of a franchise that has seen some shit.

What I'm saying, I guess, is that Andy is the Pittsburgh Pirates. You're welcome? (Teddy)

It's tough to say that one guy killed your season, but Evan Longoria missing half the season was probably the difference between 3rd and 4th place.  That said, I do want to give the manager a ton of credit for playing the shit out of the season.  This team used SIXTY-ONE different players this year, including contributions by guys named Tyler Moore, Justin Ruggiano and Jeff Locke.  Possibly my favorite of them all was somehow getting 11 innings from Wade LeBlanc with 8 K's to go with a sub-2.00 ERA.  Then again, you could have simply rotated starters that faced the Mets, Cubs and Astros all year and probably finished in the top half of pitching.  (El Angelo)

3.  Paging Dr. Rumack (League Prediction: T4th)

This team had two things going for it. One, it was one of those teams that was pretty good in everything, which let it clunk up past the teams below, all of which had at least one major hole. Two, Buster Posey. They also managed to hit the board without making any win-now trades, so their powder is dry for next year. Can't ask for much more than that. (Teddy)

This team managed to finish fifth in saves with their closers being Alfredo Aceves, Ernesto Frieri, Brett Myers, Santiago Casilla, and something named Jared Burton. If you were looking for an argument against spending high picks on relief pitching, you've found it.

2. Westish Harpooners (League Prediction: T4th)

Given that I got only 47 mostly-shitty games out of Troy Tulowitzki, I'm not entirely sure how this happened.  I will say that I got two things really right: taking a risk on the health of Joe Mauer, and circling, underlining, and highlighting Allen Craig on my draft sheet because of his oddball 2B eligibility. That's a 17th-round pick that will go down in song. (Teddy).

Also taken in the 17th round this year: Jake Peavy, who pitched like he was a '08 Padre again.  The fact that you competed this year while 4 of your first six picks on Jon Lester, Colby Lewis, Mike Minor, and Drew Stubbs is inspiring to us cellar-dwellers.  (El Angelo)

1. Big Damn Heroes (League Prediction: 7th)  

Really just significantly better than everybody else for the entire year. And not really in keeper jail next year either. So, yeah. Pretty good. (Teddy)  

I'm not sure we have ever seen, or will ever see, an outfield/DH quartet as strong as 2012 versions of Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Curtis Granderson and Edwin Encarnacion.  The 4 combined for 431 runs, 146 homers, 395 RBIs, and 92 steals.  This was on top of having a guy who should finish in the top 5 in MVP voting (Beltre) and Adam Dunn's resurgent season.  Just a mind-boggling offense.  Congrats to a dominating season.  (El Angelo)

So with all that said, here are the updated all-time standings:

	AVG FINISH	CHANGE	AVG PTS	Cashes	Cash %	Wins	Win %
Tucker	3.5	-	82.5	6	0.545	4	0.364
Scot	4.3	+1	80.9	6	0.750	2	0.250
Alex	4.4	-1	78.2	4	0.400	3	0.300
Jake	5.1	-1	72.7	5	0.455	1	0.091
Chad	5.6	-	72.7	4	0.364	0	0.000
Darrandrew†	6.3	+1	67.3	3	0.300	1	0.100
Angelo	6.8	-1	59.0	3	0.273	0	0.000
Corey*	7.0	-	61.3	1	0.125	0	0.000
Matty G.	7.2	+1	63.4	0	0.000	0	0.000
Will	7.3	-1	61.7	1	0.100	0	0.000
Jon	8.3	+1	52.3	0	0.000	0	0.000
Andy	8.4	+1	55.8	0	0.000	0	0.000
Sahil	8.5	-2	52.4	0	0.000	0	0.000
Barto	9.0	-	48.5	0	0.000	0	0.000
Vihal	9.0	-	48.5	0	0.000	0	0.000
Other Scot	9.0	-	48.5	0	0.000	0	0.000
Mike*	9.0	-	47.5	0	0.000	0	0.000
Val	12.0	-	27.5	0	0.000	0	0.000
Legend:	† Coupled as an entry because of past joint ownership
	* Corey split '07 with Mike; finish assigned to Mike

Seaons Preview: 2012 Predicatron

Once again, we canvassed the league for predictions, asking everyone to rank the teams 1 through 12.  We turned that into an AP-style poll, awarding 12 points for a team that was picked to finish first, 11 for second, all the way down to 1 for last.  Eight of you were kind enough to respond.  We then tallied it up, and the results are below with our commentary.

We're including this year a side note of which teams received first place votes, and for shits and giggles, which teams received DAFL votes.  I'll note that only one owner picked his team to finish in first or last.  So let's get to it, yes Teddy?  (El Angelo)

I'm sorry, I'm still cringing in horror at having picked up Vicente Padilla because he's the only Red Sox reliever with an ERA under 10 at this point in the season. So pardon me if my comments are a bit shell-hocked. (Teddy)

Tier 3: Michelle Bachmann Division

12.  Spreading Santorum (28 pts, 1 DAFL vote)

The one person who's jumping up and down at this prediction is Corey, who already has Will's first round pick for 2013.  Anyone know if it's lottery-protected?  (El Angelo)

We already know that this franchise zigs when the rest of the league thinks they are going to zag, so we might as well start inscribing the team's name on the championship cup now. Mark it down. (Teddy)

11.  Le Dupont Torkies (30 pts, 2 DAFL votes)

One of the reasons I wanted to include the DAFL voets was so that Tucker could see that there were two disbelievers amongst us, and vow to lay waste to the remainder of the league when he coaxes a 4th place finish out of this squad.  (El Angelo)

Yeah, I don't quite get the DAFL votes here. Has this owner ever torn it down? Because that's what it takes to come in last. Opening Day weaknesses don't really correlate to end-of-season last place finishes. (Teddy)

10.  The Moon Colonists (32 pts, 2 DAFL votes)

Coupled with the 2 DAFL picks were a pair of picks that were a lot closer to the top of the league than the bottom.  Rightly, I think at least 2 owners picked me for lower on the assumption that I have some pretty obvious sell-off candidates and may sink like a stone come August.  (El Angelo)

See, that's what I mean. If you think this team won't compete, the DAFL vote makes sense because you KNOW the owner will tear it down--witness his 19-point finishing totals in not one but two past years. I almost hope that's the way it goes, because I'd love to see what Ang would do with 3-4 first round picks. What's the earliest Mr. Met has ever been drafted? (Teddy)

9.  Quoth the Jennings (37 pts, 1 DAFL vote)

I didn't get a chance to add to Teddy's post on this team's preview, but I was actually guessing that the team name emanates from Jeopardy whiz and noted cartographer, Ken Jennings.  Given the name, I think Corey wanted to emulate Jennings and return to college here to earn an advanced degree in mapmaking.  (El Angelo)

See, that would make more sense, because I can absolutely see Mormon Ken perched on a bust of Pallas. The Mormons don't get to perch on too many other busts, even if they make a million dollars on Jeopardy!, so they have to take what they can get. (Teddy)

8.  Wu Tang Financial (40 pts, 2 DAFL votes)

The predictions here don't quite rise to the level of boom or bust because nobody picked them to finish in the money, but it's close: three people have them coming in 4th, while two have them finishing in last.  In the end, that averaged out to 9th, which somewhat coincidentally (maybe?) is about where the other 3 entries had them slotted.  (El Angelo)

There aren't really enough high-slot guys around to sell off for a DAFL. I think some of those votes were just down to habit. Which, to be fair, has had a fair bit of time to become ingrained by now. (Teddy)

Tier 2: Newt Gingrich Division

7.  Big Damn Heroes (49 pts, 1 first place vote)

The first squad to get multiple people to pick him to finish in the money, this is another boom-or-bust, as the first and second place vote are offset by a 10th and 11th place vote.  It's too bad someone didn't augment their picks by one so this team could actually have both a first and last place vote.  (El Angelo)

Well, this team has pretty much only ever come in first or last, so the schizophrenia makes some sense. But it is sort of jarring to see the two most successful all-time franchises projected for second-division finishes this year. (Teddy)

6.  Suicide by Jaguar (55 pts, 1 first place vote)

Half the league picked this team to come in either 6th or 7th, presumably on the theory that past performance is, in fact, indicative of future results.  (El Angelo)

Honestly, I pretty much drew straws for all the slots from 3-10. I'm starting to think that the rest of the league followed suit. (Teddy)

T4.  Westish Harpooners (56 pts)

One of two squads that nobody picked to win or come in last, or for that matter, nobody picked to come in the top two or bottom two.  I love Teddy to pieces, but I'm not really sure how he got to this ranking, other than by default.  The roster doesn't really say "going for it" and I would think he'd be active in the trade market come July to build for 2013.  But hey, whaddo I know?  (El Angelo)

We've done this AP exercise for three years, and I've been projected to finish 4th, 5th, and now T4th. I think I have a pretty good idea of what the rest of the league thinks of me: good, but not good enough. There is an unsettling amount of truth in that. (Teddy)

T4.  Paging Dr. Rumack (56 pts)

The other squad that has no first or DAFL vote.  I suppose given that he, Teddy and Andy are separated by a mere one point is just noise, and if they finish in 6th, the league wouldn't have been "wrong", per se.  (El Angelo)

It's tough to adjust projections to account for the fact that this group will be frantically trying to drop back past each other at the end of the season. This could look like the start of an Olympic cycling match:

Tier 1: Mitt Romney Division

3. death to the west (77 pts, 1 first place vote)

Nobody has picked this team to finish worse than 5th, which shows you the strength of the roster, given that they've only finished better than 5th once.  Well, I guess the Rays sucked until 2008 too, right?  (El Angelo)

New blood! Kind of cool, especially given that this only leaves...

2.  The Spam Avengers (78 pts, 1 first place vote)

Again, the difference between Alex and Ironhead strikes me mostly as noise.  I will say that this team hemorrhaged enough talent from the last two winning squads that if one of the top three was going to falter, this is the one I would pick.  But he's won twice in a row, how much do you want to bet against?  (El Angelo)

Dude, we've all bet against him--that's the point of the league. (Teddy)

1.  Jeters Never Prosper (86 pts, 4 first place votes)

Six of the eight entries have this guy in first or second.  The highest possible score you can accumulate in this methodology is 98, and last year's winner only received 85 points, making this an even stronger favorite.  No pressure. (El Angelo)

I have to say, that level of unanimity surprises me, especially because I think just about everyone saw last  year's edition of TSA as a buzzsaw. I think the muddle in the middle better represents the state of the league this year than this apparent separation at the top. That said, I think my preview made pretty clear that I think this is one of the teams to beat. (Teddy)

Year in Review: Those Who Can Do, Those Who Can't, Prognosticate

Many moons ago, when spring was in the air and hope sprang eternal, we here at the GRBG commissioned an AP-style poll of league owners asking them to take a shot at predicting the final standings. Eight of the twelve owners responded. For those with poor short- and medium-term memories, here is how the aggregate poll stacked up against the final standings:So, not so much. Regardless, we here at the GRBG wanted to give credit whwere it is due, and point out a couple of predictors who displayed well above-average accuracy. We used two metrics to measure how accurate picks were, which yielded two different "best" prognosticators.

First, we just looked at which owners got the highest number of exactly correct picks, and which most correctly predicted the teams who would hit the board. By that method, the winner is the Commish, who correctly called The Spam Avengers winning it all and the Gowanus Superfunders coming in third. He was also the only owner to exactly nail three different teams' finishing places, though because the third exacto ended up towards the bottom of the field, we will draw the curtain of charity across the details of that pick.

Second, we totalled up how far off people were across all of their predictions. To do so, we assigned penalty points for each slot a pick missed by (so if an owner picked Le Dupont Torkies to come in 1st, they'd get 4 penalty points for LDT's 5th-place finish in reality). By that method the most accurate predictor was Jake, who amassed only 28 penalty points. That means on average he was only about 2 slots off on each team, which is prety damn good.

Some other random notes:

- The worst predictors? Corey and Teddy, who got one board pick correct between them, and rang up 53 and 51 penalty points, respectively. While Corey's performance was slightly worse, Teddy's is probably more embarassing, given that he co-writes a blog which predicts and analyzes the damn league.

- The worst miss? Two different people had The Spam Avengers in 11th place, which was good for 10 penalty points. Again, curtain of charity.

- Jake and Sahil each correctly predicted their own finishing slots. Given where they ended up, one wonders why they didn't put their clairvoyance to work getting better players.

- Two different people predicted themselves to win the league. They were both wrong. Hubris, people!

We think that this worked out pretty well this year, and are leaning towards using this approach again next year. If you disagree, drop in a comment.

All-Star Break Review: How Everyone's Doing

The arrival of the All-Star Break gives us a three-day interlude in fantasy sports as well. Since the home run derby, futures game, and ASG itself have a de minimus bearing on fantasy overall, we thought this lull would be a good opportunity to reflect on how everyone's teams have performed to date.

We have a few of bases of comparison: the vaunted Deathship, which shows how every team would have done if owners had drafted and then fallen into comas; the aggregate predictions we ran in April; and our own previews. Let's bring them all together and see what we've gotten right, wrong and didn't see coming so far. (El Angelo)

This has not been a particularly pleasant exercise at many points in the GRBG's history, so I find myself pre-flinching, bomb-squad style. Nevertheless, our public deserves accountability. I guess. (Teddy)

12. Wu Tang Financial (11th in predictions, 12th in Deathship)

While both the aggregate predictions and the Deathship have been mostly on target, there are two teams with which they're both dead-on-balls accurate. This is one of them. Everyone agreed from day one that this was a basement dweller and nothing has changed. The good news: he'll be able to draft B.J. Upton at the #2 slot next March. (El Angelo)

Too true, though, as with many last-placed teams, they've also had more than their fair share of bad luck and unforeseeable underperformance (who had Zack Greinke down for an ERA near 4.00 at the break?). And it's once again worth noting the deft timing that allowed him to get a return on Troy Tulowitski before he hit the shelf until after the trade deadline. (Teddy)

T10. The Little Green One (7th/T7th)

The 7th in the predictions is deceptive because as Sir Teddy noted, the team was clearly boom-or-bust, and the 7th reflected that the owners were divided over the team's fate. They could be a slot or two higher if they had held on to some of their veterans, but for what purpose? (El Angelo)

Yeah, to me the most surprising thing here is the current 7th place position in the Deathship. (By the way, can I just briefly note how happy I am that "Deathship" caught on, both as a concept and a term? I feel like by next year, the league will be like the Tour de France, where the winner of the league gets the glory and the yellow short, but the Deathship winner will get to wear a ridiculous polka-dot shirt as a consolation prize.) By that I mean that when left alone, this team actually achieved mediocrity, rather than a boom or bust. But the decision to sell was a good one in a year where there were more buyer than usual early on. (Teddy)

T10. pastywhite tyrones (12th/11th)

Sneakily good hitting-- their 40 points is not bad, considering the Dustin Pedroia and Jose Reyes injuries--is offset by some truly horrible pitching. Matt Garza's not a bad first starter, but the problem is that R.A. Dickey is playing a prominent role here, and they have no closers. The pitching's shallow and bad enough that climbing out of the bottom tier is going to be impossible, but that said, pitching is variable enough year to year that it wouldn't be a surprise to see this team keep 8-10 hitters and compete next year with a fresh staff. (El Angelo)

Agreed, the move here is to keep the offense more or less en bloc, and then try to catch some arms on the way up next year. The Torkies actually used that strategy to good effect a couple of times a few years ago, so you can see a blueprint at work. Not to say that it's easy, but you can see how the ship could get turned around with a good draft next year. (Teddy)

9. Le Dupont Torkies (2nd/10th)

Wank. Looks like we have the mirror image of the team that befell the same bad destiny that hit It's Enrico Palazzo last year. This time it's horrible hitting that's doomed the team, and given how bad they're doing in the Deathship, it's clear these guys were probably DOA coming out of the gate. Of course, only a few of us realized that at time, instead basically making the mistake of counting on a veteran team to make one last run.

The silver lining for Tucker (and scary bit for the rest of us) is that Scot's shown that one down year means nothing with good drafting. Who wants to bet that this team won't be in 10th this time next year, when armed with two picks in the top-16? (El Angelo)

It looks like we might have been a year early predicting the demise here. But for those inclined towards belief, we note that the Torkies still have a ton of IP to burn (they're on pace to go 70 innings under the max limit), and better health than they've had for most of the season. We can't see them getting up to their usual spot in the top 2, but a money finish is still not totally out of the question if the bats get going. (Teddy)

8. Suck It, Silver (1st/3rd)

And here's everyone's colossal misfire. For now, I'm less curious about what's gone wrong versus everyone's predictions, and more curious why he's getting killed versus the Deathship. On its face, the answer appears to be entirely about offense, which is getting Corey a pathetic 14 points in our league versus 37.5 in the DS. Let's do a side-by-side comparison of what his team has earned in each category in our league (left) versus the DS (right):

Runs: 404 vs. 404
HR: 95 vs. 94
RBI: 366 vs. 364
SB: 63 vs. 64
OBP: .336 vs. .344

The OBP difference aside--which would only put him up 5 more points and into 7th place--this basically proves something we've all suspected, that in-year changes do matter. The stats that you'd get simply based off your draft aren't good enough, you need to acquire better players. Not coincidentally, Corey is in the bottom 4 of the league in transactions.

But is that his bad managing? Corey entered the year with a deep roster, and only Adam Lind has really completely shit the bed this year. Everyone's been just enough below average to not give up on them. More problematically, it is difficult to find good hitters in the free agent pool, especially infielders. Which means Corey's only real sin is not being more active in the trade market. But when you're down 30+ points, I can understand being hesitant on the trigger finger. (El Angelo)

I'd put the same point slightly differently. This has been maybe the most positively managed first half since the very early days of the league, when keeper slots didn't yet force bad teams to sell early. Almost everyone (and believe me, I talked to almost everyone about potential trades) had the goal of hitting the board this year, and managed accordingly. The result was that standing still in the middle lane was not an option, unless you wanted to get passed on both sides. And that's what's happening here. A year after riding a great draft to the money, this team is riding a merely good draft to the middle.

That said, because there are only two really good teams right now, these guys are still in it to hit the board. The problem is that there aren't that many teams left to loot for upgrades, meaning the necessary improvement will have to come internally (we're looking at you, Aaron Hill) or over the wire. (Teddy)

7. The Situation Room (8th/4th)

The entire difference between the Deathship and my current lot in life is Kelly Johnson's explosive April and May. Had I kept him instead of futzing around with shitty players before dealing for Dan Uggla, I'd probably be a little higher in the standings. That said, the initial prediction looks about right, what with Lester, Hernandez and Upton all off the roster in a rebuild mode for '11; if I finish higher than this slot, I've screwed something up. (El Angelo)

As I've probably made clear, I think a couple of teams behind you are ripe for a run, so I think you'll settle back nicely. Maybe not as nicely as you'd like, but nicely nonetheless. (Teddy)

6. Jeters Never Prosper (6th/9th)

The team's season is exactly as boring as we expected. And their drafting didn't help. Here's a recipe for mediocrity, courtesy of a draft summary:

R1--Aramis Ramirez: horror show.
R2--K-Rod: Met.
R3--Jason Kubel: Meh.
R4--Nate McLouth: Disaster.
R5--Kevin Slowey: Bad.
R5--Octavio Dotel: Finally, a good one!
R6--Billy Butler: Blah.

This isn't to pick on Jake--most of these picks were defensible when made. But when you go 1-5-1 on your first 7 picks, you're going to have trouble competing. (El Angelo)

You've neatly summarized what happened to me last year. Of course, I ended up getting lucky and winning the draft lottery, which set me up well for this year. So hope abounds here. (Teddy)

5. Duck-Duck-Duck-Fuke (10th/2nd)

I give up. (El Angelo)

It is absolutely uncanny how bad we--and now, given this year's methodology, the rest of the league--are at predicting how this team will do. Hell, even the Deathship is bad--I don't know how you can make a clear win-now trade in the real league yet still somehow be behind your original roster in the Deathship. The usual laws of physics appear not to apply here. I therefore encourage the owner to name this team the Event Horizons next season. (Teddy)

4. Enrico Palazzo (9th/6th)

Manager of the half year by a mile, the team that finished next to last in the previous year is suddenly in contention. How? Well, they've constructed a monster offense that leads the league in all the power categories, is second in OBP and is 5th in steals. Compare that to last year, where the squad crapped all overitself to 26 1/2 points. Credit goes to drafting David Wright and Carlos Quentin, hitting the jackpot with Paul Konerko (in the 16th round--holy shit!) and Alex Rios on bounceback years, and getting David Ortiz at the right time.

Can this keep up? Well, you'll note that 2 of those players are old, 2 are pretty breakable and the 5th is a Met, so I remain skeptical that they can keep sprinting to the finish. And they still have no closer. So to me, this looks like a 5th place team. Which is a huge step forward from last year. (El Angelo)

I dunno, I look at the pitching and see no particular reason why it should be this bad. That's especially true now that Jon Lester is on board. Yes, the lack of saves is going to hamstring them some, but it's not that hard to project an increase in the SP-driven numbers that at least cancels out any regression from the old guys on offense. I think they're more likely to end up 2nd than 5th (unfortunately for me). (Teddy)

3. Gowanus Superfunders (4th/5th)

My co-author is in 3rd place despite getting nothing out of Brian Roberts, still not getting anything from Carlos Beltran (told you so), Adam Jones playing worse than Tom Jones, and trading for a busted shortstop. What's next?

Well, if they really want to contend, they're going to need at least two of those guys to contribute in the second half, because the easiest place for this squad to improve is steals, which Beltran and Roberts should provide if their legs work. And presumably their runs total would go up as well. Which leads to the key question: how many points is it going to take to win the league? If it's ~85, they've got a shot with some health breaks. If it's closer to 90, they look like the 3rd best team. (El Angelo)

See, I think I can get more steals without too much problem with the guys on my current bench (Scott Podsednik and Jose Tabata). The problem has been that I couldn't start those guys consistently without dragging the rest of the offense down. That's where Beltran (who is officially back as of Thursday) and Tulo will hopefully help--it's not that they'll steal bases on their own, it's that they'll let me run a steals-only guy out there consistently without further decimating my OBP.

If I have hope, it's in the return of those guys, plus the fact that I have several traditional second-half players on my team (Johan Santana, Ryan Howard, Tulo, Mark Reynolds). But for me to hit the board, everything needs to start going right now, and keep going right the rest of the way. That's a big ask. (Teddy)

2. The Revenge Society (3rd/1st)

For all the pickups, trades, and strum und drang, this squad's a couple of points behind its DS standings. That said, it's a pretty balanced team with two studs on the DL (Chase Utley & Clay Buchholz) and a lot of chits to trade if they're going to make a run for it. I liked last year better when this team sucked. (El Angelo)

Yeah, for all my bitching about the Tulo injury, TRS didn't get much more out of Utley before he hit the shelf. The Buchholz injury hurts them less, (a) because it's less serious, and (b) because they have plenty of pitching (and are on pace to go 40 innings over the limit, so they could do with a work slowdown anyway). Like me, it's a race back to health in the MI for TRS, because there just aren't good temp options up the middle this year. Random prediction: keep half an eye on Chris Davis, who is again a starter in Texas post-Smoak. (Teddy)

1. The Spam Avengers (5th/T7th)

Here's what's scary: these guys were in DAFL for brief portion of this year, i.e., they squandered a month and are still in first, and still have room to improve. They're dead last in steals and have solid upside to improve in steals and RBI's, especially if they make 1-2 more moves. I liked them at the start of the year, and love them to win it now. Well played to date, Alex. (El Angelo)

I think these guys are closer to their ceiling, points-wise. It's very much true that they have some easy upside on offense. But they are also on pace to blow through the IP limit by a whopping 100 innings. That's good news in some ways, because it means that the team's great rate stats are locked in. But there are no more points to be had for this team in those categories, because they're already at the top. For the counting stats, the pace news is not so good. At a +100 inning pace, you need to reduce TSA's Ws, SVs and Ks by about 7% to account for the looming IP wall. That would trim between 3.5 and 5 points off their total, depending on how you round. That makes things at least a little more competitive than they look on the surface.

Still, I don't think that there's any doubt that these guys are the favorites as we turn for home. Note the gap between this team's actual standings and the Deathship--the owner has driven the hell out of this team to date. 90 points should be enough to win this year, and the path to 90 is clearer for this team than it is for any other. (Teddy)

EDIT: For the visual learners among you, we tack on this section of Super Fun Excel Graphs showing the league standings and points measured at roughly two-week intervals over the course of the season to date.

The asterisk by the June 18th date is there because it marks the point where several teams began to sell off assets. Now by league rank:

The most volatile team? Our leaders, The Spam Avengers. Check the growth pattern on their points:

And finally, our least volatile team is actually the current second-place franchise, The Revenge Society:

Season Preview: The Aggregate Predictions

In the past years we've done previews, we've also done predictions. In 2007, Teddy and I did something of an ad hoc prediction of where we thought everyone would finish. As we noted later, we were right about 2/3 of the time, that is, within an acceptable margin of error.

After taking off 2008 so Teddy could get married, we resumed predictions last year with the assistance of PECOTA. This system went to shit: the teams that finished 1-2-3-4-5 were predicted to finish 11-12-6-5-10. Shockingly, we have chosen to not revisit that method.

This year, rather than just announce from Mount Gowanus how we think the league is going to wind up, we've instead taken a third approach: asking other members for their predictions, and doing a tally, AP-poll style. We received 8 responses, which included 2 that were computer-influenced and one that was taken "off the top of my head."

Our hope is that the Wisdom of the Crowds will produce something resembling order. What is produced is four distinct tiers: contenders to win, contenders for the money, possibilities for the money, and longshots. Shall we run it down, Sir Teddy? (El Angelo)

Let's. And I love the concept of Mount Gowanus. I assume that in this scenario, Tucker is the Krakon. (Teddy)

Tier 4: The Discreetly Mine Division

13. Val (1 point)

Very nice, Jake. (El Angelo)
.

Seems a little high to me. (Teddy)

12. pastywhite tyrone (24 pts)

For the record, I did not pick this team to finish in last. Regardless, there's only one thing to say: you're doing a heckuva job, Brownie. (El Angelo)

Neither did I, actually. But investor confidence appears low at the moment. (Teddy)

11. Wu Tang Financial (26 pts)

Only one owner picked this team to finish higher than 9th place...and it's the team's own owner. I'd try to make an argument for them doing well, but they've only finished above 6th place once: their first year. (El Angelo)

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I feel like people might be extrapolating a little too much out of B.J. Upton-gate. The team's not that bad. (Teddy)

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10. Duck-Duck-Duck-Fuke (30 pts)

I picked Will to finish in 8th, and as I've noted before, I never get Will's team correctly. I think I've sentenced him to another 5th place finish. (El Angelo)

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One person had these guys DAFL, which slightly skews their ranking. Though I guess that's the point of this methodology. (Teddy)

9. Enrico Palazzo (34 pts)

Seems like a consolidation year to get some good talent in here before a push to contention next year. The offense looks a bit anemic. (El Angelo)

.

As I said in the season preview, there's more here than you might expect, especially with Carlos Quentin looking frisky in the early going. But there are more solid teams than usual this year, and I guess somebody has to be worst of the best. (Teddy)

Tier 3: The Awesome Act Division

8. The Situation Room (47 pts)

There's nothing like everyone thinking your team is mediocre. (El Angelo)

.

Well, not everyone--these guys got one vote to hit the board, which is what separates them from the Tier 4 teams below. The other predictions? 6/7/6/10/7/10/9. So, yeah, that part is pretty mediocre. (Teddy)

7. The Little Green One (58 pts)

Some large divergence here. One owner picked this team to finish in third, three picked them to finish in 4th, while two of us (myself included) chose them to finish next-to-last. I really don't like the pitching or a lot of guys in the lineup, and can see this team selling off assets early to build for next year. (El Angelo)

Yeah, this is one of the two lightning-rod teams this year. I'm already on record that I think these guys wil challenge for the board. That said, the league vote as a whole has done a good job of reflecting the fact that the shape of this roster, with its multiple high-slot guys, is going to force the owner to either buy heavily or sell heavily come the summer. (Teddy)

6. Jeters Never Prosper (58 pts)

We've kept this squad in Tier 3 because only one owner has picked them to finish in the money. By contrast, everyone else has them between 4th and 8th. Ladies and gentlemen, the team everyone thinks will be mediocre! (El Angelo)

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Kind of the mirror image of Ang's squad, except that where everyone thinks Ang's squad will be "not all that good," everyone thinks these guys will be "not quite good enough." (Teddy)

Tier Two: The Sidney's Candy Division

5. The Spam Avengers (60 pts, 3 first place votes)

My pick to win it all, as well as a computer pick and another human's pick. By contrast, one owner predicts him to finish him in 8th, and two others predict him for next-to-last. That mathematically translates to fifth place, but pins this as a boom-or-bust team. (El Angelo)

...and here's the other lightning rod. I feel better about my deeply hedged season preview of this team now that I see that nobody else knows what to make of them either. (Teddy)

4. Gowanus Superfunders (61 pts)

My esteemed colleague wrote me today to say that he needs Lawrence Jones to perform to him until Carlos Beltran returns. My response: planning for a Met to be healthy is planning to fail. (El Angelo)

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I'd like to thank everyone (well, almost everyone) for nominating me for this season's El Angelo Memorial All-In But Out of the Money Award. I got three 4th place votes, and two 5ths. Of course, one guy did pick me to finish 11th. I'm not sure which would be worse. (Teddy)

Tier One: The Eskendereya Division

3. The Revenge Society (70 pts, 1 first place vote)

Was 2009 a fluke result? (El Angelo)

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There's still work to be done on the roster, but I understand the vote of confidence in the owner. (Teddy)

2. Le Dupont Torkies (80 pts, 1 first place vote)

What I find interesting: all but one of the ballots picked this team to come in the top 3. The one that didn't was a computer-generated result, which put him in 9th place. I do think that someone's Wankdorf BCS Machine is underrating the owner's tendency to put together a winning squad, but if this team does flop, that program will become the fantasy equivalent of Deep Blue. (El Angelo)

Did LDT's owner assault a spreadsheet at some point? Because this is two years in a row that the computers have come in hard against him. Didn't seem to slow him down last year, though. (Teddy)

1. Suck It, Silver (83 pts, 3 first place votes)

All but one of the 8 ballots has this squad finishing in the money, and with good reason: the pitching and hitting are deep and balanced. Injury and regression on the team's residents Blue Jays are factors, but here's your 2010 morning line favorite. (El Angelo)

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SIS is my pick as well, so I can't argue. (Teddy)

A Silly Thought, Part 2

Now that we’ve set up our weird little thought experiment, let’s take a moment to (1) consider what, if anything, it actually tells us, and (2) as is SOP here at the GRBG, seize the opportunity to praise or mock people based on limited samples of questionable data.

Lesson the First: You Can’t Fight Genetics

Some years you get the bear; some years the bear gets you. The data impart this lesson in two ways.

First, a substantial portion of league success is down to getting good seasons out of the guys you draft. The bizarro league accurately reflects the group of teams who will finish in the 2-4 slots, and pegged three other teams to within one place of their reality rankings. Never mind that those six teams have completed something like 250 transactions between them; their destinies were pretty well set from day one.

Second, the huge PECOTA misses are mostly reflected in both the bizarro and reality standings, meaning that the power of player variance (or owner clairvoyance) usually trumps in-season maneuvering. For example, IEP’s precipitous crash is reflected in both the bizarro and reality standings; it’s tough to see what he could have done to pull out of the nosedive even if he had bothered to pay attention this year. And in the other direction, AA ends up in the same place (2d) in both leagues despite completing numerous major trades in the live league. All that sound and fury amounted to basically nothing compared to being right about Carl Crawford back in March.

Lesson the Second: Unless, That Is, You Live in D.C.

The Torkies, Funiculi, and Loose Bowels all did their best to fight their genes. Of course, while the Torkies and FF decided to overcome their limitations and beat their bizarro doppelgangers by 4 and 6 places, respectively, the TLB decided to devolve all the way to the bottom. According to reliable reports, the commish spent much of yesterday beating a femur against a large stone obelisk; we can but trust that positive results will follow shortly.

So with those bits of wisdom carved into digital stone, let’s move on to the awards.

The “Suck it, Nate Silver” Award

Goes to AA for just crushing his PECOTA projection, which appeared to assume that he had drafted a team of conceptual performance artists rather than ballplayers. Also the winner of the “Best Draft” award, and likely reason why half of the league will switch to Ron Shandler next season.

The Tim Geithner “Why Do I Bother?” Award

Goes to wormcheese mousebird. After trading away half of his opening day roster (and a couple of chunks of mine to boot), he ended up all of one place away from where PECOTA and the bizarro world predicted he would. Let’s see, the owner engaged in frenzied activity in support of frequently criticized grand plans, yet maintained a permanent belief that the fundamentals were strong and the team would soon turn the corner. Can’t understand how a guy like that ended up at the Fed.

The King Lear Memorial “Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks!” Trophy

Goes to IEP. Fate’s a bitch.

The Barack Obama Presidential Citation for Overcoming Adversity

Goes to Flaccid Funiculi; beating your fate by 6 spots is a nice achievement. It shows that anyone can achieve in this league, even those who, like FF, were born in Kenya.

The Chase Utley MVP Award

Can’t really go anywhere but to Le Dupont Torkies. The 6 spot gap between PECOTA and bizarro world? The cynical could write that off as luck. Taking that “lucky” roster another 4 spots to the top? Well, that’s pretty good.

A Silly Thought Experiment and Concomitantly Modest Proposal

As we've noted elsewhere, the "official" GRBG league predictions as generated by Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA data were less than razor sharp crossbow accurate. But, as noted in the prediction post, there were three problems with our use of PECOTA. One of those problems--PECOTA's inability to factor in the performance of owners--clearly contributed to the predictions' shortcomings.

We here at the GRBG wondered whether there was a way to separate out managerial performance and see how PECOTA would have done based on the rosters as drafted. As we wondered this, our eyes wandered to our Yahoo! notification stream, which informed us for the 200th consecutive day that Troy Percival was on the injured list, yet in our starting lineup. And then we remembered:

The Death Ship.

Because of various wacky mishaps with the draft system (and a certain owner's apparent inability to read a watch), on draft day the league created an alternate reality. That reality contained slightly warped copies of all our teams, with rosters as they stood after the completion of most of the draft. The bizarro league was then sealed up and left to play itself out without material interference from us. It became, essentially, a control group. So did PECOTA do any better predicting the bizarro world? Here are the predictions vs the actual standings:

PECOTA	Bizarro Standings	Reality
It's Enrico Palazzo	Wu Tang Financial	Le Dupont Torkies
Wu Tang Financial	Aroids Anonymous	Aroids Anonymous
Unenviable Position	Recalcitrant Cobbler	Mission Accomplished
Evil League of Evil	fakeleague (Ang)	Recalcitrant Cobbler
Mission Accomplished	Le Dupont Torkies	Flaccid Funiculi
Recalcitrant Cobbler	The Loose Bowels	Wu Tang Financial
The Loose Bowels	The Spam Avengers	wormcheese etc.
wormcheese etc.	wormcheese etc.	Unenviable Position
The Spam Avengers	Jake!Wrong League (Scot)	Evil League of Evil
Flaccid Funiculi	Unenviable Position	The Spam Avengers
Le Dupont Torkies	Draft? (Will)	It’s Enrico Palazzo
Aroids Anonymous	It’s Enrico Palazzo	The Loose Bowels

Well, PECOTA did seem to come closer to the control group than it did to manager-affected reality, so maybe there's some value there after all. More interestingly, the gaps between the projections, control group, and reality give some interesting insights into who has done the best job as an owner this year (hint: not me). We'll cover that in a later post. But I'll tell you what: we should definitely make the Death Ship league an annual tradition so we can track this stuff.

Mid-Season Accountability Review

The year 2009 has not been a strong one for predictions for the authors of the GRBG. We thought that Mine That Bird had no shot in the Derby, that the US was going to get waxed in the Confederations Cup, and that Zach Duke would implode. With that in mind, let's take the All-Star break to review our predictions, see what's gone right/wrong so far for the teams in the league, and consider forecasting what the second half has in store. Warning: our predictions, it turns out, makes our Derby prognostications look savvy. (El Angelo)

The 2009 PECOTA predictions have been the greatest spreadsheet-related disaster since Bernie Madoff first pirated a copy of MS Office 95. If we had any intellectual integrity, we'd shut down the blog. Luckily, we in fact don't have any intellectual integrity, so off we go. (Teddy)

12. The Spam Avengers (predicted: 9th)

Key quote from preview: "It's a good-not-great roster with a lot of pratfalls."--El Angelo

For starters, I'll note that somehow the 6 teams I previewed are currently in 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 11th and 12th. I leave it up to the reader to guess whether that's a curse or coincidence.

At any rate, the prediction has been kinda-sorta true, but this team has been markedly worse than I expected. What happened? Well, Jimmy Rollins has been a colossal stiff when not playing the Mets, and the bounty from the Drew/Upton-Milledge/Votto swap hasn't quite panned out: Lastings never made it back to the majors, and Votto missed a month with anxiety disorder. Throwing away that much firepower seems like too much to overcome. (El Angelo)

A team picking that high in the draft can't afford to eat its first round pick. Throw in a double miss on Votto and Milledge and it's crash city. That said, PECOTA actually got the neighborhood right for TSA--this far down things like managerial indifference start to swamp the data no matter how you pick 'em. (Teddy)

11. It's Enrico Palazzo (predicted: 1st)

Key quote from preview: "This perennial contender is a player or two shy of the top this year."--El Angelo

Perennial contender and PECOTA's pick goes to shit. What the hell happened? Three things. First, this team's pitching has utterly collapsed. For the last two years, this team has succeeded because of its arms, not its bats. Here's a chart showing their points earned in years past:

Yr	W	Sv	K	ERA	WHIP	Tot
07	11	7.5	11	12	12	53.5
08	7.5	7	12	11	12	49.5
09	6.5	1	1	1	5.5	15.0

Second, the hitting that was passable in years past has not been a strength at all, thanks to some killer performances and injuries from the infield. Russell Martin and Dan Uggla have gone from huge strengths at weak positions to just plain ol' shitty. When Carlos Delgado went down for an extended period, the team's hitting demise was set (to say nothing of Raul Ibanez's new injury).

Third, the owner appears to have taken the year off. While I can't say I blame him when the team is this poor, it's possibly the key difference between 11th and, say, 6th. Though given the top-heavy nature of next year's draft class, it's probably the smart move. (El Angelo)

SP-heavy teams are subject to collapse without warning, but this is ridiculous. Next year, rather than post the projected PECOTA winner we'll just send that owner a dead black cat in the mail and get it over with. I will say that the above chart points out the extent to which RPs influence the rate stats--it's nota coincidence that the team's collapse in SV gone along with a collapse in ERA and WHIP. (Teddy)

10. The Loose Bowels (predicted: 7th)

Key quote from preview: "The league's most average team."--Teddy

Turns out that was optimistic. How do you know you're having a rebuilding year? When your outfield consists of Colby, Cody and Ryan. Collecting women and Irish guys will not lead you to greatness. (El Angelo)

Those are the names of either a Little League outfield from San Dimas or a family of golden retrievers. (Teddy) Again, though, the PECOTA predictions saw a mash-up from 10th to around 6th, so the prediction was pretty much on the mark once you factor in trades. (Teddy)

9. wormcheese mousebird (predicted: 8th)

Key quote from preview: "If they can dig up some starters during the year that push them towards respectability, this team may be able to be middle of the pack; otherwise, it's a push for 2010."--El Angelo

This roster is really odd. They're doing fine in saves, runs, steals and OBP, and suck at everything else. Though for most of the year, their entire strength has been 3 closers, a couple of speedsters, and a guy in Petco Park. Looks like a push for 2010 is in order. (El Angelo)

Yep, those couple of starters never materialized. The power numbers should go up a touch over the rest of the year with Adam Dunn on board, though some of the SV might get flogged off as well. The upshot is that this team feels about right at this level, as PECOTA shockingly predicted. (Teddy)

8. Unenviable Position (predicted: 3rd)

Key quote from preview: "a smartly constructed roster with some minor flaws in the infield, and some health and development question marks on offense in general."--El Angelo

To do well in fantasy sports, you need not only for your players to do well, you need some of them to do above and beyond what's expected. Go to this team's roster and find a single player that's having a great year other than Ryan Braun, who's an established stud. I'll wait. (El Angelo)

Well, Mark Reynolds, honestly. But I've been killed by a succession of events that were independently predictable, but collectively extremely unlikely. Four pitchers (Ervin Santana, Wifey McBeater, Anibal Sanchez, and Troy Percival) have essentially been out for the duration, and my OF, projected by PECOTA as a source of strength, has cratered with Milton Bradley exploding, Alfonso Soriano imploding, and Eljiah Dukes, I dunno, deploding? Is that a word? It's my second perfect storm of suck in four years and honestly, I'm gettig sick of it. (Teddy)

7. Evil League of Evil (predicted: 4th)

Key quote from preview: "Here's my pick as the preseason favorite."-El Angelo

From what I can tell, this is pretty much attributable to bad luck, a couple of injuries, and drafting at the back of the pack for 4 straight years finally mattering. (El Angelo)

We didn't really factor in the bundle of joy which (understandably and correctly) distracted ELoE at the beginning of the season when he faced some injury and underperformance issues that he might otherwise have managed his way out of. By the time he came to it was fire sale time. (Teddy)

6. Wu Tang Financial (predicted: 2nd)

Key quote from preview: "This franchise has been only slightly easier to fuck than Iola Morton."--Teddy

Wait, you're saying that's out of context? Fine.

Actual key quote from preview: "We're a little more skeptical, though even we have to admit that the roster here looks talented and durable enough to make trouble."--Teddy

Random prediction: this team will still compete this year, barring them intentionally reversing course and trading off assets. I'm not saying for the top spot, but I think they're the 4th best squad in the league. (El Angelo)

Yeah, a little more rise wouldn't stun me either. They won't get that board spot, but they're a first division squad. PECOTA gets a little more time here. (Teddy)

5. Aroids Anonymous (predicted: 12th)

Key quote from preview:"They should be, at worst, mid-pack competitive most of the year."--El Angelo

Unlike Teddy, this is roughly where I thought these guys would be, but that's mostly because I had a lot more faith in Carl Crawford than my partner. Though the fact this team's competitive despite getting nothing out of Matt Holliday is impressive. (El Angelo)

Here is where PECOTA just starts crapping all over itself. I admit to having shared PECOTA's skepticism on Crawford; not much to say there other than I'm an idiot. The largely unforeseen overperformance of the Toronto pitching staff has also helped. But for a team that has made no major trades to go from a prediction of DAFL to a board-challenging performance is both impressive and a testament to the human frailties of Nate Silver.

4. Recalcitrant Cobbler (predicted: 6th)

Key quote from preview: "Probably not going to hit the board, but certainly one to watch."--Teddy

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. (El Angelo)

Woot! (Teddy)

3. Mission Accomplished (predicted: 4th)

Key quote from preview: "Even with the issues at closer, this team has enough firepower and upside to keep the owner in the top half of the league, and focused on this year instead of some amorphous future horizon."--Teddy

I'm a bit surprised how well this team has done this year--I had been shooting for a 5th-7th place finish. This is all attributable to Albert Pujols turning into a modern day Ted Williams; if you replaced him with Mark Teixeira, my team would have, without exaggeration, 11 fewer points. Now that I've added 3 closers for the stretch run...I'm not saying I can win, but I like my chances to stay competitive, barring a horrible injury. (El Angelo)

Yeah, everyone got this team right so far, though the massive post-trade transformation of the roster pretty much invalidates the old projection going forward. It sure seems like this team will stick around, though I honestly expected it to be a little farther up in the standings by now, so maybe I'm overrating it post-trade. (Teddy)

2. Flaccid Funiculi (predicted: 10th)

Key quote from preview: " This sure looks like a rebuilding campaign, and should be marked by a ton of activity in the trade market."--Teddy

Here's what I wrote about Will's team in our 2007 mid-season review:

I have given up trying to make sense of Gaynor's teams. I thought they would be good two years ago, and they sucked. I thought they weren't any good last year, and they were good. I thought they'd be near me this year, and they're doing great. In an effort to not kill his chances in the second half of the year, I'll just demur.

I stand by it this year, because as I noted in the comment section on this team's preview, in the past, we have misunderestimated Will's teams. (El Angelo)

Yeah, honestly, I fucking punt here. Edwin Jackson my ass. (Teddy)

1. Le Dupont Torkies (predicted: 11th)

Key quote from preview: "They should be in the mix, but will have to drive the hell out this team to get back into the money again this year."--Teddy

Putting aside PECOTA's horrible blunder, Teddy's preseason words were quite fortuitous. Our defending champ has done a masterful job in the first half of this season, riding a roster without a lot of superstars (are there any here besides Chase Utley?) and withstanding the losses of A-Rod and Joe Mauer to still be atop the league. Making it possible are some great performances on the pitching side, as this team has 52 pitching points (60 is the max possible).

Can this continue? There's not much room for improvement in the pitching side, but there is some room for improvement on the hitting side. There's also a chance to lose ground in hitting too; they could easily be passed in R's and HR's and sacrifice a few points, despite making some savvy trades this month. My guess? They finish the season in 89-91 point range, basically daring anyone else in the league to beat them. Good luck to all. (El Angelo)

I at least knew enough to question PECOTA here based on history. And while we're here, a note on manager involvement: the current top three in the league standings are all in the top four in pitchers' IP. Can't win from the bench. (Teddy)

Thus Spake PECOTA

With our armchair analysis in the books, it's time to wheel out the big analytical guns. We've run the rosters of each team through the PECOTA projection system put out by Baseball Prospectus and come up with something resembling a objective crack at a predicted order of finish. But before we get to the results, let's lay out our methodology and some problems with the system up front. Do us a favor and read all this before you flip out about the predictions, OK?

We took each team's best-projected hitter at each position, even if a team plans to start someone else, in order to take the human element out of the process. No effort was made to account for the production of replacement or bench hitters, because it all just got too complicated, and the whole point here was to use something other than our subjective opinion to predict the league.

For pitchers, we did our best to projected the starting 9 plus the best bench pitcher, to better reflect how teams actually use their staffs in this league. We should also say that these standings are incredibly close in places; one change in a closer job can (and has) moved the predictions around pretty good.

Now, here are the three major problems with all this.

Problem: The system chokes on injury and risk.

Take A-Rod. PECOTA sensibly takes a bite out of his projected production to account for his existing injury. But he still has the best projected full-season line of any 3B on his owner's roster. So A-Rod's line goes into the projection. However, by doing so the projection entirely omits the production the team will get from whatever random guy they plug in until A-Rod is healthy. This means that team's counting stats will be understated, and its rate stats might be overstated. This hurts more for stud offensive players, because each has 4 counting stats and 1 rate stat, than it does for pitchers, who have 2 real counting stats and 2 rate stats.

Similarly, PECOTA takes a bite out of the projection of players who are big injury risks going forward. This especially hurts pitchers, as they tend to have larger risk profiles. So if a guy has a 60% chance of blowing out his arm, PECOTA docks about 60% of his counting stats. Again, while that approach makes some sense, it doesn't factor in replacement performance.

Along those same lines, the system probably underrates stars-and-scrubs teams by assuming that they'll roll with the same scrubs all year rather than sort through the waiver wire for a guy having a fluke year.

The point is that the system underrates the chances of high-risk, high-reward teams. So bear that in mind when you see the projected standings.

Problem: The system does not factor in owner performance.

Good owners can add value in two ways. They can manage well, taking the guys on their roster and mixing and matching them to best effect. Or they can GM well, adding to their roster through pickups and trades. Since we have no idea what will happen on either of those fronts, the predictions just take the rosters as given. The projections show what the likely outcome would be if we all set our lineups on Opening Day and then came back in October to see who won. If you don't like your prediction, well, go manage your way up.

Problem: PECOTA likes what PECOTA likes.

PECOTA has a good reputation. However, it isn't perfect. It has its darlings (like Matt Wieters and A.J. Burnett) and bete noires (like Ichiro, who PECOTA seems to think will be crushed by a falling piano at some point this year, and David Ortiz, who it thinks is cooked). Projections are only as good as the inputs used to generate them; if you think PECOTA is dumb, you'll think the projections are dumb.

With all that in mind, we present the PECOTA-projected Wankdorf standings for the upcoming season:

	Pitching	Hitting	Total
It's Enrico Palazzo	47	41.5	88.5
Wu Tang Financial	46	42	88
Unenviable Position	44.5	41	85.5
Evil League of Evil	35	38	73
Mission Accomplished	26.5	46.5	73
Recalcitrant Cobblers	33.5	34	67.5
The Loose Bowels	34	33	67
wormcheese mousebird	23	32.5	55.5
The Spam Avengers	29.5	24	53.5
Elbow Your Funicular?	25	25.5	50.5
Le Dupont Torkies	32.5	16	48.5
Aroids Anonymous	14.5	15	29.5

If you don't like them, go to Russia. Or just call Baseball Prospectus and yell at them. IEP, pressure's on you.

Edit--by popular request, here are the raw totals PECOTA came up with.

PITCHING	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Chad	84	86	1130	3.89	1.29
Ang	86	13	1069	4.12	1.37
Sahil	79	80	1004	4.13	1.32
Will	74	109	919	4.08	1.35
Jake	77	70	1012	3.73	1.31
Alex	71	87	1014	3.95	1.31
Jon	76	90	1073	3.76	1.27
Corey	66	91	912	4.20	1.37
Scot	80	86	1038	3.91	1.31
Elders	66	100	1047	3.96	1.30
Andrew	91	41	1160	3.84	1.28
Tucker	66	143	932	3.85	1.31
HITTING	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP
Chad	751	227	749	104	0.358
Ang	790	196	750	106	0.366
Sahil	756	178	715	138	0.353
Will	712	196	749	69	0.352
Jake	754	187	739	98	0.358
Alex	741	153	664	130	0.353
Jon	765	188	678	125	0.365
Corey	719	150	648	107	0.350
Scot	757	193	730	88	0.360
Elders	735	190	736	82	0.361
Andrew	773	187	757	82	0.361
Tucker	682	184	708	78	0.353