Seaons Preview: 2012 Predicatron

Once again, we canvassed the league for predictions, asking everyone to rank the teams 1 through 12.  We turned that into an AP-style poll, awarding 12 points for a team that was picked to finish first, 11 for second, all the way down to 1 for last.  Eight of you were kind enough to respond.  We then tallied it up, and the results are below with our commentary.

We're including this year a side note of which teams received first place votes, and for shits and giggles, which teams received DAFL votes.  I'll note that only one owner picked his team to finish in first or last.  So let's get to it, yes Teddy?  (El Angelo)

I'm sorry, I'm still cringing in horror at having picked up Vicente Padilla because he's the only Red Sox reliever with an ERA under 10 at this point in the season. So pardon me if my comments are a bit shell-hocked. (Teddy)

Tier 3: Michelle Bachmann Division

12.  Spreading Santorum (28 pts, 1 DAFL vote)

The one person who's jumping up and down at this prediction is Corey, who already has Will's first round pick for 2013.  Anyone know if it's lottery-protected?  (El Angelo)

We already know that this franchise zigs when the rest of the league thinks they are going to zag, so we might as well start inscribing the team's name on the championship cup now. Mark it down. (Teddy)

11.  Le Dupont Torkies (30 pts, 2 DAFL votes)

One of the reasons I wanted to include the DAFL voets was so that Tucker could see that there were two disbelievers amongst us, and vow to lay waste to the remainder of the league when he coaxes a 4th place finish out of this squad.  (El Angelo)

Yeah, I don't quite get the DAFL votes here. Has this owner ever torn it down? Because that's what it takes to come in last. Opening Day weaknesses don't really correlate to end-of-season last place finishes. (Teddy)

10.  The Moon Colonists (32 pts, 2 DAFL votes)

Coupled with the 2 DAFL picks were a pair of picks that were a lot closer to the top of the league than the bottom.  Rightly, I think at least 2 owners picked me for lower on the assumption that I have some pretty obvious sell-off candidates and may sink like a stone come August.  (El Angelo)

See, that's what I mean. If you think this team won't compete, the DAFL vote makes sense because you KNOW the owner will tear it down--witness his 19-point finishing totals in not one but two past years. I almost hope that's the way it goes, because I'd love to see what Ang would do with 3-4 first round picks. What's the earliest Mr. Met has ever been drafted? (Teddy)

9.  Quoth the Jennings (37 pts, 1 DAFL vote)

I didn't get a chance to add to Teddy's post on this team's preview, but I was actually guessing that the team name emanates from Jeopardy whiz and noted cartographer, Ken Jennings.  Given the name, I think Corey wanted to emulate Jennings and return to college here to earn an advanced degree in mapmaking.  (El Angelo)

See, that would make more sense, because I can absolutely see Mormon Ken perched on a bust of Pallas. The Mormons don't get to perch on too many other busts, even if they make a million dollars on Jeopardy!, so they have to take what they can get. (Teddy)

8.  Wu Tang Financial (40 pts, 2 DAFL votes)

The predictions here don't quite rise to the level of boom or bust because nobody picked them to finish in the money, but it's close: three people have them coming in 4th, while two have them finishing in last.  In the end, that averaged out to 9th, which somewhat coincidentally (maybe?) is about where the other 3 entries had them slotted.  (El Angelo)

There aren't really enough high-slot guys around to sell off for a DAFL. I think some of those votes were just down to habit. Which, to be fair, has had a fair bit of time to become ingrained by now. (Teddy)

Tier 2: Newt Gingrich Division

7.  Big Damn Heroes (49 pts, 1 first place vote)

The first squad to get multiple people to pick him to finish in the money, this is another boom-or-bust, as the first and second place vote are offset by a 10th and 11th place vote.  It's too bad someone didn't augment their picks by one so this team could actually have both a first and last place vote.  (El Angelo)

Well, this team has pretty much only ever come in first or last, so the schizophrenia makes some sense. But it is sort of jarring to see the two most successful all-time franchises projected for second-division finishes this year. (Teddy)

6.  Suicide by Jaguar (55 pts, 1 first place vote)

Half the league picked this team to come in either 6th or 7th, presumably on the theory that past performance is, in fact, indicative of future results.  (El Angelo)

Honestly, I pretty much drew straws for all the slots from 3-10. I'm starting to think that the rest of the league followed suit. (Teddy)

T4.  Westish Harpooners (56 pts)

One of two squads that nobody picked to win or come in last, or for that matter, nobody picked to come in the top two or bottom two.  I love Teddy to pieces, but I'm not really sure how he got to this ranking, other than by default.  The roster doesn't really say "going for it" and I would think he'd be active in the trade market come July to build for 2013.  But hey, whaddo I know?  (El Angelo)

We've done this AP exercise for three years, and I've been projected to finish 4th, 5th, and now T4th. I think I have a pretty good idea of what the rest of the league thinks of me: good, but not good enough. There is an unsettling amount of truth in that. (Teddy)

T4.  Paging Dr. Rumack (56 pts)

The other squad that has no first or DAFL vote.  I suppose given that he, Teddy and Andy are separated by a mere one point is just noise, and if they finish in 6th, the league wouldn't have been "wrong", per se.  (El Angelo)

It's tough to adjust projections to account for the fact that this group will be frantically trying to drop back past each other at the end of the season. This could look like the start of an Olympic cycling match:

Tier 1: Mitt Romney Division

3. death to the west (77 pts, 1 first place vote)

Nobody has picked this team to finish worse than 5th, which shows you the strength of the roster, given that they've only finished better than 5th once.  Well, I guess the Rays sucked until 2008 too, right?  (El Angelo)

New blood! Kind of cool, especially given that this only leaves...

2.  The Spam Avengers (78 pts, 1 first place vote)

Again, the difference between Alex and Ironhead strikes me mostly as noise.  I will say that this team hemorrhaged enough talent from the last two winning squads that if one of the top three was going to falter, this is the one I would pick.  But he's won twice in a row, how much do you want to bet against?  (El Angelo)

Dude, we've all bet against him--that's the point of the league. (Teddy)

1.  Jeters Never Prosper (86 pts, 4 first place votes)

Six of the eight entries have this guy in first or second.  The highest possible score you can accumulate in this methodology is 98, and last year's winner only received 85 points, making this an even stronger favorite.  No pressure. (El Angelo)

I have to say, that level of unanimity surprises me, especially because I think just about everyone saw last  year's edition of TSA as a buzzsaw. I think the muddle in the middle better represents the state of the league this year than this apparent separation at the top. That said, I think my preview made pretty clear that I think this is one of the teams to beat. (Teddy)

Season Preview: Quoth the Jennings

Every year we scramble for words to describe how worn out we are by the end of preview season. This year, thanks to the miracle of video, you can see for yourselves. (Skip to around the 0:30 second mark.)

Regardless, we here at the GRBG soldier on, bandy-legged and dehydrated, through the final preview. Let's take a look at Quoth the Jennings, starting with the name. The Poe reference just doesn't make sense to us. We have a difficult time envisioning Desmond Jennings perching on a bust of Pallas just outside a chamber door, unless of course "Pallas" is the nom de pole of a Tampa-area stripper. Which it probably is, now that we think about it. So never mind.

Infield

A glance at this team's IF evokes the full gamut of human emotion. Brian McCann is a great start at C--he's not as sexy as Santana or Wieters, but he's put up much more consistent numbers. But then things get dark. As Ang noted, Ike Davis is dying of consumption or something at 1B, and Kelly Johnson might as well already be dead, as he has put up a sub-.300 OBP in his last 1,100 ABs. But then things swing back to the positive with 3B David Wright, who is poised to benefit from the new shorter fences at Madoff Field, and SS Starlin Castro, who is the first plus shortstop to come into the league since . . . who, Hanley?  It's pretty tough to draw a line through all of those players, but we think the upshot is an average squad.

Outfield

This is the year we find out just exactly what the hell Jason Heyward is. He really took a step backwards last year, and still hasn't hit for the HR power you'd expect of a guy his size. But he's still very young, and isn't that far removed from a .393 OBP season. If he gets back towards that sort of OBP and takes the usual age-related step up in power, he'll be a monster. But based on last year's numbers, there's also a chance he's just the evolutionary Jeff Francouer, with less power and more patience. We still believe.

Speed and OBP merchant Brett Gardner and Polish Met Lucas Duda round out the OF. While Gardner is sneaky useful, it's not at all clear that Duda does anything at an above-fantasy-average level. There might be some sneaky help on the roster, though, in the form of Kendrys Morales, who apparently somehow has OF eligibility. The team has Morales pencilled in to the UTIL spot now, but if they could find another bat, he'd make an intriguing possible upgrade on Duda or Davis. They'll need to find an upgrade somewhere, because the OF is underwhelming as constituted.

Starting Pitching

There are a lot of guys we like up top. Verlander is obvious, but we also like Brandon Beachy and Jordan Zimmerman to take steps foward this year, and like Phil Hughes in his fourth consecutive year as a flyer.. The problems come on the back end, where Bartolo Colon can't possibly do it again (can he?), and Brian Matusz is still an Oriole.

The problem is that while we like a lot of these guys more than most, we still don't think they can run with some of the other rotations who are deep in established stars. The owner did a nice cobbling job, but that's not going to be quite enough in what looks to be another good year for pitchers.

Bullpen

The Ryan Madson thing hurt, obviously, but there's still a decent set of relievers here. Sergio Santos was a great pickup in both real life and the league.We're leery of Javy Guerra (because of Kenley Jansen) and Raffy Betancourt (because he sucks), but they are still good candidates for save production. The Madson injury knocks these guys out of the megapen picture, but there's enough left to challenge for best of the rest.

Outlook

If Heyward rebounds, there aren't any real glaring weaknesses on the team. The problem is that there aren't really any huge strengths, either. Verlander is clearly the best player on the team, and a true foundational player. But who's number two? McCann? Wright? Those guys are a level behind the truly elite, franchise fantasy guys. Because of the lack of stars, they'll need just about everything to go right to make a run. Says here that they don't get there.

Season Preview: Jeters Never Prosper

We'll dispense with most of our usual faffing about in this preview, because this is a damn good team. However, we did want to briefly note the ethical conundrum that this team may soon face: if you name your fantasy team after a player, are you obligated to play him? Because this team really only has one obvious hole, and its name is Derek Evelyn Jeter. 

The face made by Jeter in response to the GRBG's request for comment.

Infield

Features Mike Napoli and Prince Fielder, yet is possibly the weakest unit on the team. (That's a scary thought.) But once you get past those two guys, there are some question marks. Aramis Ramirez is a trick-or-treat player at 3B, and generally has been a guy you want the year before he signs a big FA deal, not the year after. Jason Kipnis is an interesting prospect at 2B, but doesn't have much of a track record. Of course, the owner seems to realize this and has brought in cover in the forms of Neil Walker and ...

Wait.

Really?

...

Brian Roberts! Because why not bring in a 35 year old MI with multiple concussions and one remaining viable cervical disc? 

But while we gently mock, it is likely that at least one of those three guys holds down the keystone well enough. That just leaves Jeter, who missed a number of games last year and has no backup on the roster. We think that the two big boppers will provide adequate cover, but this is the spot where things could get ugly.

Outfield

Solid. While there's no real elite guy, there are three solid above-average choices. Given the sneaky lack of depth in the OF, that's a nice setup. We like Shin-Soo Choo to bounce back this year now that he's done stress-drinking in reaction to the possibility of getting drafted into the Korean army. Andre Ethier took a step forward last year, although he's still under the radar because he plays next to Matt Kemp. And Nick Swisher is a happy marriage of player skills, ballpark, and team, as his walk-and-hack routine fits perfectly in the New Yankee Launching Pad and with a deep, productive lineup. Not sure what Ichiro has left in the tank, but he's starting the year on the bench and should be adequate as a speed sub and injury cover.

Starting Pitching

The rotation has a chance to be absolutely monstrous. Dan Haren and Jared Weaver will probably take a little step back from their crazy 2011, but they're still almost certain to perform well. Behind them is injury retread Josh Johnson, and dual rookie sensations Yu Darvish and Matt Moore. While we are usually leery of both injured arms and youth on the hill, these are about the best bets you could make in those categories. We don't love Jeremy Hellickson as much, but life's not bad if he's your sixth starter.

Bullpen

Currently a bit shallow, with only a post-injury Brian Wilson and job-threatened Matt Thornton holding down closer roles. That said, Jon Broxton or Brian Fuentes could end up with a closer role sometime this year, so they will be fine if everything breaks right. Even if it doesn't, they still have enough here to push towards the top of the non-megapen teams, which should be enough to stay respectable in SV. 

Also, Jonny Venters is fun as hell, which counts for something.

Outlook

Yes, the middle infield situation is problematic, and yes, the pen is not going to be elite. But in a year with no real monster Opening Day squads, this team looks like its in the best shape heading into the season.

 

Season Preview: Le Dupont Torkies

While still the league's most successful all-time franchise, the past couple of years have not been kind to the Torkies. They've gone from 1st to 5th to 10th in the standings, and from 101.5 to 68 to 47.5 in points. Much of that was down to an inevitable team reboot following back-to-back wins. But we're now in year 3 of the rebuild, so it's legitimate to ask whether the team has gotten itself back into contention for a run at the board.

Infield

Much like Real Madrid, the Torkies have chosen to build their infield offense around attractive metrosexuals and the Portuguese. Madrid has managed to kill both birds with one stone by bringing in Portuguese hair gel afficionado Cristiano Ronaldo as their star striker. By contrast, the Torkies have diversified. New first-rounder Mark Teixeira fills the Portuguese quota. But does he meet the attractive metrosexual requirement?

So, no.  As a result, they've brought back aging centaur enthusiast Alex Rodriguez to fill that role.

The rest of the IF is unsettled. As of now, the team has Michael Young queued up in the 2B hole. But while I think Young will crater this year, they also have top prospect Dustin Ackley around, and could even move Ben Zobrist back to 2B. The  situation is somewhat similar at SS and C, where the team has multiple options. However, unlike with 2B, all of the SS and C options are below average except in SB. If A-Rod and Teixeira mash, the Torkies will be able to patch together the holes. But both have posted multiple year-over-year declines, and are on the wrong side of 30. So while they'll still be good, we don't think they'll be able to cover for the profound lack of power at the other IF positions.

Outfield

As noted above, Zobrist could play in either the IF or OF, so it's a bit tough to judge this group. But any way you slice it, the key guy is Lance Berkman. If he stays healthy and repeats last year's bounceback, Zobrist and Shane Victorino can perform the supporting roles for which they are intended. If not, the OF situation mirrors the problems in the IF--they will steal a ton of bases, and do OK in R and OBP, but will do  nothing to fill the HR and RBI categories. Having one unit like that is fine. Saddling both units with the same weakness is problematic.

Starting Pitching

The Torkies are continuing a multi-year tradition of relying heavily on RP to carry their staff. That strategy leaves them vulnerable in two categories: W and K, where the lack of regular IP (the Torkies threw the second-fewest innings in the league last year) prevents the team from amassing counting stats. The Torkies seem to be aware of that vulnerability, and have moved to patch it with a bunch of high-K, high-BB, high-variance pitchers. The ace is Adam Wainwright, who is nice to have but also hasn't pitched in the bigs for a year. Gio Gonzalez made a nice leap last year, but is still wild, as is Johnny Cueto. Francisco Liriano is also on hand. I know the numbers don't back this up, but I think this is the year he gets his third wind. And Michael Pineda is also lurking, although his age and early shoulder injury make us very nervous.

The upshot is a rotation that is more complementary than dominant. But, of course, that's about all they're intended to be.

Bullpen

There are only 9 pitching slots in our league; the Torkies have 6 closers. Yes, at least one is hurt (Drew Storen) and at least two others suck (Chris Perez and Jim Johnson). But the Torkies have pretty much guaranteed themselves 11 save points before the year even starts. We assume that the hope is that the traditionally more favorable ERA and WHIP rates for relievers will give them a leg up in those categories as well.

It's a fun strategy. But we wonder if this year's team doesn't push it just a little bit too far. The picks that were used stretching the 'pen from 4 closers to 6 might have been better used on some thumpers. So while this unit will be great, query whether the opportunity cost might have been too high.

Outlook

We think this team mostly comes down to whether A-Rod and Teixeira slug at an elite level this year. As inveterate Yankee haters, though, we can't quite bring ourselves to admit that possibility. If that's right, there just isn't enough offense on the roster to make a run at the board. That could change if some of the high-slot offensive guys (Braun, Tulo, AGonz) change hands. But the GM is going to have to show off some of his old skills and grab one of those guys if he wants to avoid a mid-pack finish.

Season Preview: The Spam Avengers

With apologies to Quentin Tarantino and David Mamet, our favorite screenwriter currently at work is Scarsdale native Aaron Sorkin.  In addition to his fine television work--The West Wing needs no introduction, and there were elements of Sports Night and Studio 60 I liked--he's batted 6-for-6 on movie screenplays.  A Few Good Men is a pop culture icon, The American President is a criminally underrated movie and possibly his best piece of writing, and The Social Network was deservedly award winning.  ("You don't have to study."  "Why not?"  "Because you go to B.U.")  Even Charlie Wilson's War and Moneyball, while not perfect, were good films.


And yet, my favorite Sorkin movie remains Malice.   It has an absolutely fabulous cast: 4 Oscar winners (Nicole Kidman, Gweneth Paltrow, Anne Bancroft and George C. Scott, though you have to be on the lookout for the last two); Alec Baldwin at his absolute smarmiest; Bill Pullman in his most meaningful work other than Spaceballs, and appearances from two of my favorite actors, Tobin Bell and Peter Eyebrows.  It has a convoluted plot that, while absurd, is riveting.  The dialogue is as snappy as you'd expect from a Sorkin picture.  And it's a fabulous entertainment, if not a Great Film.  Call it a guilty pleasure if you'd like--I plead guilty.

So for my final preview, let's look at the 2-time defending champions through prism of vaguely applicable quotes from Malice.  We begin.

Infield

"Scotch.  Bring a bottle of scotch."

This infield is 3/5 of the way to greatness with MVP candidates Robinson Cano, Carlos Santana and Joey Votto on the roster.  I particularly like Santana as a stud this year; the Indians have said they're going to use him at first base and DH to increase his at bats, so getting 150 games out of a breakout candidate on top of two guys who are among the top 3 of at their positions is a boon.

These guys are going to have to be fabulous, however, because the rest of the infield is clearly a work in progress.  Mike Moose Tacos is a promising young player who showed painfully little last year, and can't be seen on the same tier as the Hosmer/Lawrie/Trout level of young players.  He could break out but there's an even better chance he spends part of the year in AAA.  Erick Aybar is a great defensive player, who will steal 25-35 bases for this team, and contribute nothing else of value.  An addition is going to be necessary if this team wants to threepeat, because the only help off the bench is the completely pedestrian Martin Prado, he of the career net -4 steals.

Outfield

"Bad things happen to good people all the time, Andy.  Sometimes for no reason at all."

This was the team's weakest area last year, but the rest of the roster was so strong that it almost didn't matter.  Unfortunately, it may matter this year, what with the team hemorrahging some keepers.  Jacoby Ellsbury is an obvious stud but also an obvious regression candidate.  I love Cameron Maybin as a breakout candidate this year, but query what beyond steals he's going to provide in a fairly punchless Padres lineup in a cavernous ballpark.  After that, it's spin the wheel of replaceable outfielders--Carlos Quentin has the upside to give the team some useful production, while the less this team plays Alexis Rios, Melky Cabrera and Nick the Greek, the better.

The real saving grace for this team's hitting is that they're absolutely stacked with runners, as they have 4 guys who could steal 40 bases.  So there are some good trade chits here and the owner knows how to play the market with the best of them in this league.  It would not surprise me if this was a team active early and often to deal steals for power.

Starting Pitching

"Speak of the devil!" "And the devil shall appear."

Cliff Lee is gone, but David Price and Clayton Kershaw remain, giving the team two bonafide Cy Young candidates.  What's interesting is that this team has eschewed the method of stacking up on lottery ticket pitchers for the next tier and instead gone with three pretty consistent bets: Matt Garza is what he is (very solid); Hiroki Kuroda is switching leagues but is going to actually get some run support for the first time, and Jon Niese profiles to be the next Jon Garland.  (I am completely ignoring Erik Bedard from this analysis because he's never healthy.)  This doesn't seems as strong or deep as some of the other rotations we've covered, but perhaps we're biased from remembering last year's pitching bonanza on this squad.

Relief Pitching

"I'm gonna take out your lungs with a f--king ice cream scoop.  Do you understand me?"

Mariano Rivera and Kyle Farnsworth give the team two closers, and the likes of Jesse Crain and Grant Balfour give them some backup options if their teams' initial closers collapse.  This won't be a saves haven, but it should add up to a middle of the pack finish in saves.

Outlook

"You ask me if I have a God complex.  Let me tell you something: I AM God."

The best quote of the movie from the highlight of the movie--which was used by John Lee Malvo nine years ago--goes right to the heart of a team that's won two straight years and has a third title under his belt.  It's difficult to maintain dominance under the league format for more than two years because the keeper rules force you to lose players.  And the fact that this team dealt off 2012 picks for last year's title made reloading a little more difficult.  Still, while this team doesn't have the depth it did last year, it has six players who stand to contend for year-end awards, the greatest closer of all time, and an owner who has done it three times before.  Not the favorite, but definitely a contender.

Season Preview: Big Damn Heroes

Last year's DAFL showing made this owner the first in league history to have both won it all and come in last. Unsurprisingly, the team exited the year with a lackluster keeper list. But, as discussed in the last TA, they made a couple of astute pickups and also won the draft lottery, giving them the right to draft any player named Hanley with the first pick. How much ground have they made up?

Infield

The big damn hero

At this risk of being overly reductive, this really does come down to how Hanley Ramirez does this year. Just about every data point is trending in the wrong direction--he's declined in all counting stats, BA, OBP, and SLG in each of the past two years. But there have been tons of stories coming out of spring training about how Hanley is finally healthy, has shortened his swing, is eager to prove himself with Jose Reyes on board, etc., etc. Yes, many ST stories are happy horseshit, but they're enough to inspire hope, especially given the amazing performances Hanley has put up in the past. I believe.

If Hanley does rebound, there's a chance that this team will have the best player at both SS and 2B, where Dustin Pedroia is holding down the keystone. Winning up the middle gives a team a big advantage. The corners are iffier, especially at 1B where Adam Dunn was the worst starting player in all of organized sports last year (narrowly edging out JaVale McGee and Blaine Gabbart for the honor). He'll also need another catcher after the ASB, when Russell Martin starts his annual tailspin. Regardless, with a healthy Hanley, this is a strong group. Without him, Pedroia's the only lock to be above fantasy-average at his position.

Outfield

Hero of the big dam

I still don't know what to think about Curtis Granderson. Over the past five years the guy has been a top pick in our league, a fourth outfielder, traded in real life, and the AL leader in RBI, somehow all in that order. Assuming he doesn't get benched again for no reason, he should be great. He's backed up by maybe the most underrated player in baseball, Andrew McCutcheon, and maybe the most overpaid player in the NL (non-Ryan Howard division) in Jayson Werth. Luckily, Werth's ridiculous paycheck doesn't factor into his fantasy value--I like him for a bounceback this year. Plus there's future world religion founder Mike Trout waiting in the wings for the day when Vernon Wells gets carried out back and Ol' Yellerized.  Good group.

Starting Pitching

The damn hero of Big

As we've started to see in the other previews, there are a ton of good rotations out there this year. This team had a chance to join them, until the news that Chris Carpenter has some sort of mystery nerve weakness. The last guy to have mystery nerve weakness was Joe Mauer, and he ended up missing a lot of the year. (And what kind of sucker would want Mauer on his roster this year, right? Amirite? Shit.)

Anyway, in Carpenter's absence, the rotation is fronted by Zack Greinke, flanked by Max Scherzer.After that, we're down to even-year Josh Beckett, which any Sox fan will tell you is a daunting thought. I do like Edinson Volquez as a sleeper candidate in San Diego this year, although the change in parks won't help him as much as you might think, because his biggest weakness is BB%, not HR%.

The upshot is that this is a perfectly fine rotation in a year where there are multiple very good-to-great rotations. It will take a healthy Carpenter plus one other elite performance (by Volquez or a trade acquisition) to boost them into the elite tier.

Bullpen

Comprehensive, with four closers plus two other lurking closer candidates. This points out an interesting split in the league this year. The closers are concentrated on 4-5 teams, each of whom have guaranteed themselves at least 8 points in saves. BDH is one of those teams. Another two teams are functionally punting saves.

The interesting part will happen in the middle. Somebody is going to fall into 7 save points without having really kept saves or targeted them in the draft. If that team used those resources wisely elsewhere (a big assumption, I admit), they should have a leg up on the megapen teams. Something to keep an eye on.

In any event, this pen will serve this team well.

Outlook

I hate to go back to the good-not-great well, but I think that's where we're at. Yes, a triumphantly resurgent Hanley could lead this team back to the board. But as constituted (and assuming a deep discount on Carpenter's performance), they look a little short. Still, the owner clearly knows what he's doing. If he can swing one more good trade, look out.

Season Preview: Westish Harpooners

For the second straight year, my worthy co-blogger has gone with a team name that is completely lost on me.  I have never watched Community, and thus, More Fish For Kunta meant absolutely nothing to me.  I have also never read The Art of Fielding, so while I know it's referring to Henry Skrimshander's team in the book, that's about all I can contribute.  Coupling that with Teddy's frequent use of French on this blog--a language I do not speak--and I'm starting to wonder if my partner is simply trying to thumb his nose at my ignorance at different elements of high- middlebrow- and low-culture.

Looking at his roster for this year, I also wonder if he thinks we're all ignorant, because on its face, this is an oddly constructed team.  Let's break it down.

Infield

Starting off with possibly the best player in baseball, Troy Tulowitzki, generally is a good first step, but unfortunately, the roster then morphs to a giant enigma.  Joe Mauer might be a top-shelf catcher, but combined for a whopping 12 home runs over the last two years.  Even if he had hit them all last year, 12 dingers would have put Mauer in a 4-way tie at 18th among catchers, behind fantasy luminaries John Buck and Rod Barajas.  Hopefully for Teddy, Mauer rebounds to get on base a lot, because he can't steal, won't have anyone to knock in, and there isn't a single member of the Twins that can be relied on to knock him in.

Elsewhere, Teddy looks to run some combination of Kung Fu Panda, Ryan Zimmerman, and Paul Goldschmidt at the corners, which seems mildly productive if not explosive.  I can only hope the Mike Aviles start at second base is a hedge until Allen Craig proves to be healthy, because he of the career .318 OBP threatens to undo all the good that Mauer can add to the roster.

Outfield

This is a bit better than the infield, if not exactly at the elite level.  Carlos Gonzalez's 2011 didn't match the greatness of his 2010, but that strikes me as a consolidation year, I like him to go 30/30 this year with a nice OBP.  The issue is that after CarGo, we start to hit guys with large OBP issues.  There's no question that Drew Stubbs will help in the counting categories, but he strikes out--literally--in nearly 30% of his plate appearances and hasn't cracked a .330 OBP since college.  BJ Upton is playing for a contract, which may help, but still isn't going to exceed a .350 OBP unless he gets hit by 40 pitches.  Which leaves the venerable Josh Willingham as the team's "saving grace" in the OBP department.  However, the last two seasons evidenced that Willingham is either going to help you in OBP or help you in power but not in both.  Unless he pulls it all together at age 33--somewhat unlikely--he's a placeholder and not an answer.

Starting Pitching

Cole Hamels and Jon Lester make a good top of the rotation.  I especially like the former, who's in a contract year, is one of two good free agents for 2012 (with Matt Cain), and now knows that the LA Dodgers are going to be spending a trillion dollars in the free agent market next year.  That's incentive to pitch well.  Lester has been about as reliable as starters come over the last few seasons from a fantasy perspective, so unless he winds up in Bobby V's doghouse, this team has 450-475 top shelf innings to rely on.

After that, we get to the Mega Millions tickets.  I like Mike Minor long-term, but am concerned that Teddy has him two years too soon.  (As a former owner of Clayton Kershaw, I empathize with the paradox of taking pitching talent too early in their career.)  Colby Lewis is fine, but if Feliz and Ugando pitch well, may be out of a job.  Edwin Jackson is a good flyer on an improving Nationals team.  And then there's Ryan Dempster.  It's good to have you back where you belong, Ryan.

Relief Pitching

Papelbon and Street are two ensconced closers, and Daniel Bard may close for Boston when it's all said and done this year.  Elsewhere, Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo are solid citizens that stand to get good vulture wins and saves.  I'm just impressed that Sir Theodore took Clippard after this ringing endorsement from 2010:

I do, however, bow to any number of people in my admiration of Tyler Clippard. I’ll even go so far as to say that he will get almost NO wins operating as the fireman for a calamitous NatsTown squad.

Outlook

In years where the talent was a bit more concentrated in a few teams--like, say, last year--this squad would have the looks of a contender for the show slot, as it has a fair number of productive players and lacks any true crapshows, besides Mike Aviles.  But as we've seen so far this year, talent is a bit more spread out across the league.  At least one team beyond the obvious favorites is going to contend with unforeseen explosive seasons from young players or bounceback candidates.  Here, those candidates are Mauer, Zimmerman, Goldschmidt and Upton.  And I think they'll need at least three of those guys to have All-Star seasons to compete.  Since that strikes me as unlikely--especially with one already on the disabled list--this looks like a team that will probably be selling come Father's Day.

Season Preview: Suicide by Jaguar

Our beloved Commish has decided this year to abandon as his team avatar a fictional character on some children's show that I have never seen nor heard of--and let's hope that my infant daughter never gets to see it--to John Fairfax, a completely insane man with the greatest obituary in recent memory.  For those without the time or patience to read it, Fairfax's life highlights included:

• Rowing across both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, after spending months in Hyde Park, New York building up stamina.
• Apprenticing to become a pirate.
• Settling a dispute with a pistol during a camping trip...when he was 9.
• Relocating to the Amazon to sell jaguar and ocelot skins...when he was 13.
• And when he was 20, attempting to commit suicide by jaguar.  As his obit writer dryly stated: "When the planned confrontation ensued, however, reason prevailed — as did the gun he had with him."

The Dos Equis man has nothing on Fairfax--he was, in fact, the most interesting man in the world.  As for Andy...we'll reserve comment.  Is his team at least mildly interesting?

Infield

The infield is in fact interesting, if not necessarily good.  Hometown hero Yadi Molina and perennial Elders Whipping Boy Alexei Ramirez are here as mere placeholders, which is fine.  The real production is going to have to come from cornermen Eric Hosmer and Evan Longoria.   Hosmer didn't disappoint in his stint with the Royals last year but also didn't set the world on fire.  Still, if he avoids the sophmore jinx, it's reasonable to expect good production (including some steals) in an improving Royals lineup.  Longoria has, to me, been perpetually overrated because of how club-friendly his contract is.  He's a nice player, but he's not on the same tier as Cabrera, Fielder, and Braun of superstars.  If he can make that leap this year, this team will contend.

Outfield

Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday and Josh Hamilton is the best outfield in the league, and backups Dexter Fowler, Corey Hart and Peter Burjos are both fine as replacements and spot-starts for steals.  I'd say more, but what is there to say?  This is an outstanding group of players that just needs to stay healthy and away from urine tests.

Starting Pitching

There's a lot of wishcasting in this rotation, but if you're going to take risks in one part of your roster, I'm of the opinion this is the place to do it.  It's unlikely that Ian Kennedy will win 20 games again, but he seems like a reasonable candidate to be a solid #2 starter.  After him, we hit question marks.  Latos and Luebke were drafted high to provide rotation stability, but both come with question marks--the former is moving from the best pitcher's park to a good hitter's park, and the latter has yet to top 150 innings.  I like Ubaldo Jimenez as a bounceback candidate so long as he's spotted aggressively in those matchups against the Twins, Orioles and A's.  And then, there's Brandon Morrow, who will one day put it all together and have a Kevin Brown 1996 season.  Query whether that will happen now or in 2018.  Finally, there's super wildcard Shelby Miller, who despite having a stupid name, may finish the year as their best arm.

Relief Pitching

Since Axford is a fine closer and Kenley Jansen appears to have the LA job as long as he stays healthy, much of this may come down to the AL Central race.  Does Greg Holland have dibs on the KC closing job, and if so, can he hold it?  And is Chris Sale going to revert back to the pen in May and take the closer's spot from Matt Thornton and Addison Reed?  I go "yes" and "no on those questions, meaning this is probably a middle-of-the-pack saves team

Outlook

The outfield is excellent enough that if this team even gets passable pitching from Luebke, Morrow and Jimenez, they're going to be competitive.  They're a player or two away from being on the same tier as the best teams this year, but close enough behind that an aggressive early move and good health will make them contenders.

Season Preview: Paging Dr. Rumack

In most fantasy leagues, you build through the draft.  While this maxim is pretty self-evident, it's nowhere more evident than in teams that have struggled for a couple of years, because usually it's easy to see that because of bad luck, bad player selection, or some combination of both, those teams haven't had much success in the early rounds of the draft, and thus, haven't gotten top-shelf talent, which is almost impossible to mine in the later rounds.

Today's case in point is Paging Dr. Rumack.  Now the owner is one of my favorites in the league--he's quick to respond to trade talk, doesn't beat around the bush, has a good sense of humor, and knows his baseball.  But it's been a rough go of it for this team since their stellar performance in 2008, when they finished second with an insane 98 points.  And the reason for this probably comes back to the draft.  Here's how they've fared early on in the past:

2009: Having dealt away their first two picks, their first four picks are a collection of mostly ancient outfielders in Magglio Ordonez, Andre Ethier, Johnny Damon and Raul Ibanez, and they manage to make Chien-Ming Wang the second pitcher they take.  Their best pick comes in the 14th round, when they select future prospect Buster Posey.

2010: Courtesy of the 3rd pick, they receive purported star David Wright, who promptly moves to Citi Field and turns into a pumpkin for fantasy purposes.  While taking Matt Cain at #14 was an excellent move, taking AJ Burnett in the 3rd round was not.  Their most productive pick after Cain was probably Paul Konerko, who they snare in the 16th round.

2011: It's not precisely clear how or why this happened, but this team had no picks until the 3rd round, having dealt their first two picks--and Wright--to Corey for a haul that yielded Carl Crawford and Roy Halladay.  Their first three picks end up being used on Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda and Stephen Drew's surgeon.  Their best pick was probably Eric Hosmer in the 10th round.

This analysis isn't trying to pick on Andrew, it's just to show how a fantasy owner we all know is good ends up in the weeds for a few years.  With that in mind, Andrew started off this year taking Felix Hernandez, Jimmy Rollins and Adam Jones.  Are they going to lead him to a good result, or will we look back and say that the highlight was Dayan Viceido in the 17th round?

Infield

The infield has a chance to be top-notch, but it does embrace a fair amount of risk and general dice-tossing.  Ian Kinsler needs no introduction at 2B and my opinion on Rollins as an underrated fantasy shortstop have already been made clear.  The other three spots consist of an old guy (Konerko) a young guy (Brett Lawrie) and a rehabbing guy (Posey).  If all pick up roughly where they left off while playing last year before their season ended or their ligaments were shredded, this portends to be a strong unit.  And this is a must, because there is little in the way of backups on the roster.

Outfield

If the scoring categories for fantasy baseball were Athleticism, Raw Talent, Handsomeness, Adulation by Kevin Goldstein and Hype, this team's outfield would rival the late 1990s Albert Belle-Kenny Lofton-Manny Ramirez troika for the best outfield in history.  Sadly, we are constrained to measure the players on inherently imperfect (though precise) categories like OBP and runs scored.  And by those metrics, while these guys may produce a lot, they may also be all hat and no cattle.  Desmond Jennings took the league by storm when he was finally called up last year but cooled off measurably (and probably necessarily) once September rolled around.  Nobody would be surprised if he became pre-Sox Carl Crawford 2.0, but he's still a player with 250 ABs.  Adam Jones has been supposed to break out forever and still hasn't, and can't be expected to knock in too many runs on an execrable Orioles team.  Jay Bruce is another guy who's been on everyone's Next Superstar list for years, and while his raw numbers from 2011 indicate that he doesn't stink, it's worth nothing that 38% of his home runs came in a 4-week stretch in May against shitty pitching. 

Now I will say that if you're going to have an outfield that doesn't have a ton of stars, this is the way to go.  There is not a lot of fun in gathering up an outfield of Corey Hart, Shane Victorino, and Andre Ethier and knowing with great certainty where you're going to end up.  There's a non-zero chance that Andrew has accumulated three stars here that will be the center of a championship contender.  All of these guys are fun to watch.  And all might completely shit the bed and give him last-place production.  But since this game is in no small part for fun, if you're going to watch your fantasy players play, you may as well pick fun, young guys with a world of potential.

Starting Pitching

In a word, excellent.  My humble co-author correctly noted that Ironhead's pitching was good, and I've already opined on the quality of WTF's staff.  Dr. Leslie Nielsen has raised that another level with a staff where Matt Cain is the third starter behind Cy Young candidates--nay, possible favorites--Cliff Lee and King Felix.  4th and 5th starters Jamie Garcia and Wandy Rodriguez are excellent players for those slots in the rotation, especially if they're used judiciously.  Even Brandon McCarthy and Bull Black Nova strike me as reasonable gambles.  Also a fun rotation to watch.

Relief Pitching

The less said the better.  They have Cleveland's best reliever.  Unfortunately, that's all they have.

Outlook

There are enough depth issues in the outfield that we have some questions and the complete punt on saves is troublesome.  But this is a fun roster that at absolute worst has Cliff Lee to deal off in June.  And it might be good enough to warrant buying, not selling, at the trade deadline.  To me, their fate depends on the first 8 weeks of the season; if the outfielders get hot and make this team competitive, they'll be buyers and in contention for a piece.  If they start slow, be prepared for 35 emails offering you Paul Konerko.

Season Preview: DEATH TO THE WEST

A new year brings a newly aggressive team name for a newly competitive franchise. But as with The Moon Colonists, the name's referent is slightly unclear. What, exactly, is the owner trying to kill? Taking a critical race theory approach, he works for the single whitest, most establishment institution since the Knights Templar, so he can't really be advocating the overthrow of western society. We'll explore a few options as we move through the preview.

Is he anti-Yay?

Infield

The obvious place to start is with newly arrived tentpole 1B Albert Pujols. While the team payed a pretty high price to obtain him, it's never a bad thing to have the consensus best player in baseball on your team. Much of the rest of the IF is filled with reasonable second-tier options. Bounceback candidate Mark Reynolds balances out likely BABIP victim Alex Avila (a possible Reynolds recovery is especially important, as we'll discuss in a bit), and the Irish Frankenstein of Ryan Robert Daniel Murphy provides adequacy insurance at 2B. 

So ultimately, the success of the supporting cast will rise or fall mainly on Jose Reyes, who rides a big new contract into Miami. At this point, Reyes has established himself enough that it's safe to assume a high level of performance if he stays healthy. Of course, that health is by no means a sure thing. Backup SS J. Honny Peralta at least provides a reasonable fallback option. But it's unlikely that Peralta would be the second star the IF needs in order to make a run at the board. If you like Jose's wheels, though, this is a solid squad.

Maybe he's a Grizzlies fan?

Outfield

Here's the rise-or-fall unit for this team. There are three possible scenarios here, which turn on the performances of four players: Logan Morrison, Alex Gordon, Matt Joyce and (IF) Mark Reynolds.

Scenario #1: Three of those four players have top-third seasons at their positions. That lets the team use stud Jose Bautista to preempt the sole flop at either OF or 3B, depending on the identity of the flopper. Bautista is elite at either position, which is quite the luxury. In this scenario, the offense really comes together and the team threatens the board

Scenario #2: Two of those four players have top-third seasons. Bautista stays pinned down in the OF until the team can find an upgrade at 3B or OF. The team probably stays competitive in the meantime, but isn't quite good enough to get into the money slots.

Scenario #3: One or fewer of the four have top-third seasons. Team looks to re-flip Pujols to get back some of those jillion draft picks they are missing for next year.

I am high on Morrison, Gordon, and Joyce, so I think there's a good chance that Reynolds ends up on the bench by mid-May, and the team makes a run.

Aw, who are we kidding. 

Starting Pitching

Sabathia, Gallardo, Bumgarner, CJ Wilson, Dan Hudson. That is actually a fantasy pitching rotation. Goodness. There's not much behind the starters, unless you think that Jrjr Jurrjurr can manage to outrun the regression monster for another year. But none of the top guys have especially problematic injury histories, so that's not as big of a deal as it might be for some other rotations. Pitchers can always go sideways for no reason, but this is among the safer rotations heading into the season.

Bullpen

Serious question: who was the last closer this franchise had on its roster? We feel like it might be Ambiorix Burgos, which tells you all you need to about the historical strength of this unit. Sadly, the trend persists to this day. The pen features two deposed closers in K-Rod and Francisco Cordero, and two non-closer, non-fireman relievers in Mark Melanoma and Jo-Elle Peralta. The best hope for saves looks to be Sean Marshall, and even that is an artifact of Ryan Madson's recent injury. Saves will have to be bought or found, because while this team is better than usual, they're not good enough to punt a category and still hit the board.

Outlook

Last year it was pretty clear that there were two good teams, and then an undignified muddle of teams fighting for third. This year, though, looks more like the 2010 season, when the league was flat and our previews were mostly baffled. Want more proof that this is a crazy year? Both WTF and this team could make board runs.

Season Preview: Wu Tang Financial

Fact #1: Last year the Gravel Pits improved off their prior year's record by 31 points.

Fact #2: That improvement still only netted them a 9th place finish, and at the end of the season, they were closer to last place than to 6th place.

Fact #3: Their top pick from 2011, and the #1 pick overall, shredding his Achilles tendon last October and may not play until Father's Day.

Given that doom and gloom, are their reasons for optimism this year for this team?  Can we expect and in the money finish, or even the team's first finish in the top 5?  Let's see.

Infield

While the Howard injury is obviously a problem for at least two months, WTF is taking something of a jack-of-all-trades approach to the problem by employing a bunch of guys that play multiple positions.  For now it appears that Howard Joseph Kendrick, III will man first base for the time being, with fun sleeper Gaby Sanchez waiting in the wings and stepping in at DH.  Both guys should improve off of nice 2011 seasons with better bats in their lineups; having Reyes up top will give Sanchez someone to knock in, and having Pujols hitting behind him will give Kendrick the opportunity to score runs.

The rest of the infield is made up of guys that will contribute fairly well--Phillips and Cabrera up the middle is at worst, league average--and still has potential breakout star Matt Wieters behind the plate.  I know we've been talking about Wieters as the newest star since Kevin Maas wore a jock strap, but in his age-26 season, if he's going to blossom, this will be the season it happens.  Even if Wieters simply plays to his 2011 line, however, it's still reasonable production from the catcher spot, which means the team is treading water at a fairly thin position.

Outfield

It's not every year that your best player gets a new first name in the offseason, but masher Giancarlo Stanton has the potential to mash in a new ballpark that, by all accounts, is going to yield a lot of dingers.  Hunter Pence and Carlos Beltran are nobody's idea of stud outfielders but the former should provide solid numbers--also in a hitter's park--while the latter is a fun candidate to mash and rebound if healthy.  Which as every Met fan can tell you is a big if.

Starting Pitching

While this squad lacks depth--we will ignore John Danks and Mike Leake, because he should too--the top of the staff is just filthy.  Shields and Lincecum embrace good stats and probability as well as any top 2 duo, and if we stopped there, this squad would be in decent shape.  It's the next two starters that may dictate this team's fortunes.  Strasburg can be great, can be serviceable, or can be injured.  What he is not likely to be is hurtful and morph into Oliver Perez--the worst case scenario is that he gets hurt and they have to scramble for a 3rd starter.   Clay Buchholz is a fun rebound candidate that can, if he stays healthy and avoids KFC, provide excellent production from the 4th spot.  This team may need to pick up a Ted Lilly-style innings eater during the year to sop up the remaining innings, but this is a great place to start.

Relief Pitching

The Achilles' heel of the team, which already has one fallen closer (Joakim Soria) and another reliever who may or may not be closing for the Reds (Aroldis Chapman).  Saves are the easiest category to add, and for this team to compete, it'll have to snag a closer off the waiver wire or make a trade.

Outlook

I can't believe I'm writing this but: I like this team.  The starting pitching has the potential to be excellent.  They have basestealers and mashers.  They have a bunch of hitters in hitter's parks.  They do not have a sinkhole at a single position.  Their biggest flaw is the lack of a closer, which is the easiest to remedy during the season.  I'm not quite ready to put them in the money at this point, but for the first time in franchise history, I think this is a contender.

Season Preview: Spreading Santorum

It's that time of the year again, where we look at last year's results and this year's draft and try to figure out what the hell is going to happen next year.  Yep, it's season preview time.  Some gems from the last two years:

• "I forecast another middle of the pack finish unless a big move is made come June." --Teddy on Jeters Never Prosper, who finished in 3rd and did little in the transactions column all year.

• " Do you want to bet against a repeat? Didn't think so." --Me on Le Dupont Torkies in 2010, who never really competed.

• "A clear team to watch for next year" --Me on The Little Green One in 2010.

• " If this team can snag another bat in the outfield and another good starter sometime before the All-Star Break and avoid the injury bug, they'll compete for a spot in the money." --Me on Jeters Never Prosper in 2010, who finished in a boring 6th.

And then there's our annual butchery of Will's teams, which we never get right.  So let's start with Mr. Sweater Vest's Team.  Will's squads have seemingly fallen into that same trap that the Houston Rockets and San Diego Chargers have hit: good enough to be competitive but never bad enough to do a full-scale rebuild.  The last three years have seen two fourth place and one fifth place finish with solid point totals each year.  Clearly they're not far off from competing, but they haven't cashed a check since 2006*.  How do they look this year?

*Check out how this team finished in second in 2006.  This team lost by a point and a half via a group of contributors that put up stat lines that look incomprehensible today.  I mean, Garret Atkins with a .406 OBP, 117 R and 120 RBIs?  46 dingers for Soriano?  Carlos Delgado's and Ryan Freel's last good seasons?  15+ wins each from Derek Lowe Face, Bad Penny, Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang?  This almost looks like a season generated on a PS3.

Infield

Any infield that starts with Miguel Cabrera can't be all bad, and Cabrera's potential to gain third base eligibility--assuming he can stand upright at the position for more than a week--aids this team greatly, because World Series hero David Freese is not a starting fantasy player.  It's after Cabrera that it starts to get curious.  I like Miguel Montero as a fantasy backstop and Elvis Andrus is a fine "do no harm" shortstop--he'll get you steals while doing little in either direction in the remaining categories.  Which is good, because Dan Uggla threatens to submarine this team's OBP, or more likely, simply offset the entire good that Cabrera brings.

What this means is that this team has a slightly above-average infield plus whatever they get out of first base from May through September.  If somehow Justin Smoak can show that he's actually any good, this will be a strength.  If they're forced to use Cuddyer or the waiver wire at first, however, this is not an area that will catapult this team to victory.

Outfield

Nelson Cruz and Michael Bourn give you The Power Guy and The Speed Guy, meaning you need a couple of just good all-around players to make this a solid outfield.  Unfortunately, the Vomiting Kennedys have turned to The Ancient Guy (Torii Hunter), The Spreadsheets Guy (Chris Young) and The Never Was Guy (Delmon Young) to round out the positions once Cuddyer moves to first base.  Planning on that troika to take you to glory is planning to fail.

Starting Pitching

There's a lot of guys that I like on this staff, which probably portends well.  Ricky Romero isn't thought of as a top-shelf starter by most, but I absolutely love him this year, with the only caveat that playing 1/3 of your games against the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox may inflate the rate stats.  Ervin Santana and Derek Holland are both guys I like who at worst will win a bunch of 8-5 games, which cannot hurt too badly.  Bud Norris is a good pitcher on a bad team, and even Jonathan Sanchez is someone I think is sitting on a bounceback season.  The staff is not laden with aces, but it's better than it looks at first blush.

Relievers

Willfredo got the draft off the closer schneid by taking Heath Bell, the new closer for the Neon Tropical Nightmares.  While I share some of my co-author's concerns about Bell in the long-term, I actually like him this year to rack up 30 saves on a decent team, which is not to be sneezed at.  This team also has three guys currently slated to close (League, Bailey & Marmol), but the best pitcher in the pen is probably Mike Adams, who won't close until Joe Nathan's arm falls off.  Regardless, this is one of the better pens in the league.

Outlook

This may have been the wrong team to lead off the previews because it's tough to judge them in context.  They lack superstar power--it's basically Cabrera and a lot of good/very good players--but also lack utter craptitude at any position except first base once Smoak takes over.  It strikes me as a team that's an elite hitter and starter away from the money.  Fortunately for them, there will probably be a few sellers this year.