Season Preview: Spreading Santorum

There's an old riddle, dating back to the 9th century or so, based on a scenario where you are a farmer who has to transport a fox, a goose, and some birdseed across a river. The hitches are that (1) your boat is only big enough to carry one thing at a time; (2) if left alone together the fox would eat the goose; and (3) if left alone together, the goose would eat the birdseed. The question is how you get all three items safely to the other side of the river. (Answer found at the end of the post, for those who don't already know.)

I bring this up not solely because I'm increasingly old and like to talk about riddles while whittling and eating ribbon candy. No, I bring it up because it reminds me of the dilemma faced by the S.S. Pooperlube's offense this season.

Offense

Usually, we break these previews up a bit and analyze the infield and outfield separately. But the fundamental interconnectedness of all things here means that we're going to look at the Whole Sort of General Mish-Mash together.

The key element here is Carlos Santana, a guy who is an excellent breakout candidate at C this year. The problem, though, is that he's playing 1B for this team, and you have to break out pretty far as a catcher for that to be worthwhile. That has pushed Wilin Rosario into the starting lineup at C, and bumped Mark Trumbo to the OF.

Obviously, the ideal solution here is for the team to find some way to get Santana back to C. They could do that by moving Trumbo back to 1B, but that would then open up a hole in the OF that would be filled by Nelson Cruz. "Not bad," I can hear you thinking. The catch is that that would in turn open up a hole at DH which would be filled by . . . I dunno. David Freese? Alternatively, they could move current starting 3B Todd Frazier to 1B and replace him at 3B with, uh, David Freese. Hm.

As you can see, it's tough to find a way to deploy the current roster in a way that doesn't require reliance on Freese or Rosario. Neither of those two are terrible players, of course. But there are no real studs on this offense, meaning that even one anchor is going to be too much for the team to carry. Basically, I just can't see how they're going to get this roster across the river without someone getting eaten. (I'm tempted to say that they're going to need a bigger boat, but I've already burned riddles and Douglas Adams as themes, and I have five more previews to write.)

Starting Pitching

The rotation has sort of the same shape as the offense, in the sense that there are several solid guys around, but no real top-tier options. Mat Latos is probably the ace, and while he's a good player, he strikes me more as a #2 option on a board-quality team. Marco Estrada put up some intruiging K numbers last year and is another good #2 option. Same for Jeremy Hellickson. Sense a pattern yet?

The back end of the rotation is a little iffier, with Brandon McCarthy's broken skull proninently featured.  But even there Derek Holland and Jason Vargas will throw a bunch of innings for good teams, and so should be useful for counting stats. I fear for the rate stats a little bit, though, especially with all of these pitchers except Hellickson working in relatively hitter-friendly environments. Lots of useful guys, but it's not clear that useful is good enough anymore in this mini-Age of the Pitcher we're in.

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Bullpen

As discussed in the last TA, SS assembled its pen on the cheap during trade season. While we think Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney will be hard-pressed to replicate last year's rate numbers, they are still good bets to rack up saves. (And even if Johnson fails, the team smartly added Pedro Strop as a handcuff.) Sergio Romo only became a closer last year, but he' s been a lights-out setup guy for a couple of years and gives the pen some upside. Nice group.

Outlook

I really like what this team did in the draft, especially given where they were drafting. But we're at the point where several years without high draft picks have left the cupboard bare of elite talent, making a run at the board unlikely. Of course, we're always wrong about this franchise, so this probably means they'll have 110 points by June.

*The key is the goose--you've got to ferry that sucker back and forth a couple of times. First you take him over, then go back for the birdseed. After you drop off the seed, you take the goose back with you to the starting line. Then you bring over the fox, then go back and get the goose, and then presumably ask yourself why the f--k you want a fox on your farm.

Season Preview: Spreading Santorum

It's that time of the year again, where we look at last year's results and this year's draft and try to figure out what the hell is going to happen next year.  Yep, it's season preview time.  Some gems from the last two years:

• "I forecast another middle of the pack finish unless a big move is made come June." --Teddy on Jeters Never Prosper, who finished in 3rd and did little in the transactions column all year.

• " Do you want to bet against a repeat? Didn't think so." --Me on Le Dupont Torkies in 2010, who never really competed.

• "A clear team to watch for next year" --Me on The Little Green One in 2010.

• " If this team can snag another bat in the outfield and another good starter sometime before the All-Star Break and avoid the injury bug, they'll compete for a spot in the money." --Me on Jeters Never Prosper in 2010, who finished in a boring 6th.

And then there's our annual butchery of Will's teams, which we never get right.  So let's start with Mr. Sweater Vest's Team.  Will's squads have seemingly fallen into that same trap that the Houston Rockets and San Diego Chargers have hit: good enough to be competitive but never bad enough to do a full-scale rebuild.  The last three years have seen two fourth place and one fifth place finish with solid point totals each year.  Clearly they're not far off from competing, but they haven't cashed a check since 2006*.  How do they look this year?

*Check out how this team finished in second in 2006.  This team lost by a point and a half via a group of contributors that put up stat lines that look incomprehensible today.  I mean, Garret Atkins with a .406 OBP, 117 R and 120 RBIs?  46 dingers for Soriano?  Carlos Delgado's and Ryan Freel's last good seasons?  15+ wins each from Derek Lowe Face, Bad Penny, Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang?  This almost looks like a season generated on a PS3.

Infield

Any infield that starts with Miguel Cabrera can't be all bad, and Cabrera's potential to gain third base eligibility--assuming he can stand upright at the position for more than a week--aids this team greatly, because World Series hero David Freese is not a starting fantasy player.  It's after Cabrera that it starts to get curious.  I like Miguel Montero as a fantasy backstop and Elvis Andrus is a fine "do no harm" shortstop--he'll get you steals while doing little in either direction in the remaining categories.  Which is good, because Dan Uggla threatens to submarine this team's OBP, or more likely, simply offset the entire good that Cabrera brings.

What this means is that this team has a slightly above-average infield plus whatever they get out of first base from May through September.  If somehow Justin Smoak can show that he's actually any good, this will be a strength.  If they're forced to use Cuddyer or the waiver wire at first, however, this is not an area that will catapult this team to victory.

Outfield

Nelson Cruz and Michael Bourn give you The Power Guy and The Speed Guy, meaning you need a couple of just good all-around players to make this a solid outfield.  Unfortunately, the Vomiting Kennedys have turned to The Ancient Guy (Torii Hunter), The Spreadsheets Guy (Chris Young) and The Never Was Guy (Delmon Young) to round out the positions once Cuddyer moves to first base.  Planning on that troika to take you to glory is planning to fail.

Starting Pitching

There's a lot of guys that I like on this staff, which probably portends well.  Ricky Romero isn't thought of as a top-shelf starter by most, but I absolutely love him this year, with the only caveat that playing 1/3 of your games against the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox may inflate the rate stats.  Ervin Santana and Derek Holland are both guys I like who at worst will win a bunch of 8-5 games, which cannot hurt too badly.  Bud Norris is a good pitcher on a bad team, and even Jonathan Sanchez is someone I think is sitting on a bounceback season.  The staff is not laden with aces, but it's better than it looks at first blush.

Relievers

Willfredo got the draft off the closer schneid by taking Heath Bell, the new closer for the Neon Tropical Nightmares.  While I share some of my co-author's concerns about Bell in the long-term, I actually like him this year to rack up 30 saves on a decent team, which is not to be sneezed at.  This team also has three guys currently slated to close (League, Bailey & Marmol), but the best pitcher in the pen is probably Mike Adams, who won't close until Joe Nathan's arm falls off.  Regardless, this is one of the better pens in the league.

Outlook

This may have been the wrong team to lead off the previews because it's tough to judge them in context.  They lack superstar power--it's basically Cabrera and a lot of good/very good players--but also lack utter craptitude at any position except first base once Smoak takes over.  It strikes me as a team that's an elite hitter and starter away from the money.  Fortunately for them, there will probably be a few sellers this year.