Season Preview: Le Dupont Torkies

Jeff, son, the "look over the shades" move
was already played out back in '91.

After years of flirting, the Torkies have chosen to go all-in on their beloved hometown team this year, assembling a Philly-centric squad we hereby dub the "Boys of 'Summertime.'"

The Philly Gambit has some interesting consequences for the Torkies, as it makes them more talented, more fragile, and more generally dirt-effing-old than we've seen in past years. By extension from the new team name, it also means that the owner has tactily approved Will Smith's all-time forced rhyme of "peepin' at" with "aphrodisiac" in that song.

So the question is whether this new strategy can take the Torkies back to the summit of the league, or whether they'll be stuck on the plateau where everybody go. Let's see.

Infield

Currently features only two Phillies, the aging stalwarts Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. However, we have faith that by Opening Day the owner will have promoted fellow Philly Michael Young to the starting lineup, replacing Cardinal Matt Carpenter at 3B. (That might even be the right move on the merits, as Carpenter is going to be replaced for defensive purposes a lot early on, and will bleed off ABs as a result.)  Either way, a lot hinges on the continued health and well being of Utley, an old 2B, and Howard, a guy who looked like he was dragging a leg iron around on a recent Spring Training home run trot. The optimist looks at that sentence and sees the home run trot; the pessimist sees the leg iron. We here at the GRBG tend towards pessimism.

The non-Philly part of the IF looks solid, with multi-position, multi-category wizard Ben Zobrist ensconced at SS, and Victor Martinez returning at C (with both Jon Lucroy and Brian McCann wisely waiting in the wings in case VMart's knee isn't back yet).

Taken as a whole, two things jump out at you about the IF: (1) they have very distinguished career lines; and (2) they are old. Young is 38. VMart and Utley are 34. Zobrist is 32. Howard has the body of a middle-aged crash dummy. There will be a lot of saggy ballsacs in the Torkies locker room this year. There's an interesting notional hedge against injury in the form of Derek Jeter, who could step in at SS with Zobrist moving to fill whatevr slot generates the injury. Of course, Jeter is a hundred and six and also currently injured. If everybody plays to their career lines, this is a great group. That "if", though . . ..


Outfield

 



Would you believe there are some Phillies here? They are young, however, and it's reasonable to think that Ben Revere and Dom Brown have some upside left. Regardless, they'll be propped up by legitimate keystone fantasy pieces in Carlos Gonzalez and Matt Holliday.  Note also that one of Revere or Brown stand to be bumped from the UTIL slot when Mark Teixeira comes off the DL. Good group.

Starting Rotation

Doesn't exist. And not just in the sense that all fantasy rosters don't exist--the team doesn't have enough guys to form a rotation. This group thus presents the reviewer with a zenlike koan: how do you analyze a fake thing that doesn't exist?

I guess we'll start with who is on hand. That works out well for the Torkies, because those three guys are great. The rotation starts with last year's breakout stars Gio Gonzalez and Johnny Cueto, and ends with this year's N.L. Cy Young winner Adam Wainwright (you heard it here first). After that, though, it's the sound of one hand clapping.

Post-draft, the SP4 slot was filled by Erasmo Ramirez, a Mariners pitcher of such deep sleeperiness that the team decided to send him to AAA to start the year. This, of course, meant that the Torkies did not have a fourth major league starting pitcher to put in the SP4 slot. Not good.

The team has since tried to fill the gap by cutting Ramirez, moving McCann to the DL, and signing Kyle Lohse and (former Philly) J.A. Happ. Of course, they did that before the FA period opened, meaning the Commish is probably going to force-drop those guys. So about all we know is that the teamplans on trying to actually fill out its rotation, which is something we all sort of assumed anyway.

Basically, we punt.

This one's for Ang.

Bullpen

Extensive, as usual. However, unlike past years, there aren't that many actual closers on board. Only hilarious freak Craig Kimbrel and solid arm-for-hire Rafael Soriano are in line for saves to start the year. Behind those two, the Torkies have amassed a bunch of nice setup guys in Drew Storen, Vinne Pestano, and Kyuki Fujikawa (who, to be fair, just has to wait for Carlos Marmol to implode again before he becomes a closer). Still a good group, but not obviously the saves monster it has been over the past few years.

Outlook

The lack of a rotation makes it a little hard to make a prediction. But this owner has shown that he knows how to manage a pitching staff, so let's assume that whole situation works itself out. The team is still depending on a bunch of old guys both staying healthy and not regressing for one more year. We think that they've layered in enough depth to come close, but that they're ultimately not quite ready for a run at the board.

Season Preview: Le Dupont Torkies

While still the league's most successful all-time franchise, the past couple of years have not been kind to the Torkies. They've gone from 1st to 5th to 10th in the standings, and from 101.5 to 68 to 47.5 in points. Much of that was down to an inevitable team reboot following back-to-back wins. But we're now in year 3 of the rebuild, so it's legitimate to ask whether the team has gotten itself back into contention for a run at the board.

Infield

Much like Real Madrid, the Torkies have chosen to build their infield offense around attractive metrosexuals and the Portuguese. Madrid has managed to kill both birds with one stone by bringing in Portuguese hair gel afficionado Cristiano Ronaldo as their star striker. By contrast, the Torkies have diversified. New first-rounder Mark Teixeira fills the Portuguese quota. But does he meet the attractive metrosexual requirement?

So, no.  As a result, they've brought back aging centaur enthusiast Alex Rodriguez to fill that role.

The rest of the IF is unsettled. As of now, the team has Michael Young queued up in the 2B hole. But while I think Young will crater this year, they also have top prospect Dustin Ackley around, and could even move Ben Zobrist back to 2B. The  situation is somewhat similar at SS and C, where the team has multiple options. However, unlike with 2B, all of the SS and C options are below average except in SB. If A-Rod and Teixeira mash, the Torkies will be able to patch together the holes. But both have posted multiple year-over-year declines, and are on the wrong side of 30. So while they'll still be good, we don't think they'll be able to cover for the profound lack of power at the other IF positions.

Outfield

As noted above, Zobrist could play in either the IF or OF, so it's a bit tough to judge this group. But any way you slice it, the key guy is Lance Berkman. If he stays healthy and repeats last year's bounceback, Zobrist and Shane Victorino can perform the supporting roles for which they are intended. If not, the OF situation mirrors the problems in the IF--they will steal a ton of bases, and do OK in R and OBP, but will do  nothing to fill the HR and RBI categories. Having one unit like that is fine. Saddling both units with the same weakness is problematic.

Starting Pitching

The Torkies are continuing a multi-year tradition of relying heavily on RP to carry their staff. That strategy leaves them vulnerable in two categories: W and K, where the lack of regular IP (the Torkies threw the second-fewest innings in the league last year) prevents the team from amassing counting stats. The Torkies seem to be aware of that vulnerability, and have moved to patch it with a bunch of high-K, high-BB, high-variance pitchers. The ace is Adam Wainwright, who is nice to have but also hasn't pitched in the bigs for a year. Gio Gonzalez made a nice leap last year, but is still wild, as is Johnny Cueto. Francisco Liriano is also on hand. I know the numbers don't back this up, but I think this is the year he gets his third wind. And Michael Pineda is also lurking, although his age and early shoulder injury make us very nervous.

The upshot is a rotation that is more complementary than dominant. But, of course, that's about all they're intended to be.

Bullpen

There are only 9 pitching slots in our league; the Torkies have 6 closers. Yes, at least one is hurt (Drew Storen) and at least two others suck (Chris Perez and Jim Johnson). But the Torkies have pretty much guaranteed themselves 11 save points before the year even starts. We assume that the hope is that the traditionally more favorable ERA and WHIP rates for relievers will give them a leg up in those categories as well.

It's a fun strategy. But we wonder if this year's team doesn't push it just a little bit too far. The picks that were used stretching the 'pen from 4 closers to 6 might have been better used on some thumpers. So while this unit will be great, query whether the opportunity cost might have been too high.

Outlook

We think this team mostly comes down to whether A-Rod and Teixeira slug at an elite level this year. As inveterate Yankee haters, though, we can't quite bring ourselves to admit that possibility. If that's right, there just isn't enough offense on the roster to make a run at the board. That could change if some of the high-slot offensive guys (Braun, Tulo, AGonz) change hands. But the GM is going to have to show off some of his old skills and grab one of those guys if he wants to avoid a mid-pack finish.

Season Preview: Le Dupont Torkies

Continuing our trip around the league and the 1991 soundtrack, let's take a peek at the two best historically: Le Dupont Torkies, our historically best team, and Nevermind, the year's best album.

Infield

I don't care, care, care, care if it's old.

I was about to muster up a defense of A-Rod as a franchise cornerstone, then I read JoePo's top 32 players column where he couldn't decide who was better, Mr. Diaz or Adrian Beltre. Now this comp does include defense, I hope, but yikes. It's not that Rodriguez sucks, and he plays a thin position, but his injuries and age have to be cause for concern.

It's even more cause for concern here because this infield is laden with question marks. Jorge Posada is useful because he qualifies as a catcher but is calcifying faster than Jeter. Soto is good but not elite. Furcal's also an injury risk. And Ben Zobrist could put up numbers that rival Mike Schmidt or Mike Gallego, and neither would be surprising. So while ARod and Uggla are a good start, question marks abound on a bunch that's not at all deep.

Outfield

Amazes me the will of instinct.

The Farman strategy has always been to load up on a lot of pitchers and keep a thin offense. And this year is no exception because there are 4 outfielders here, including Zobrist. The problem? None are elite. Shane Victorino is a nice 5-category player that shouldn't be your top OFer. Jayson Werth's career is reminiscent of guys like Alfonso Soriano--huge numbers at a young age for decent teams, but now moves to a shitty Nats team where he's unlikely to get a ton of RBI's especially once freed from Philly's bandbox. As for Nate McLouth, he's never had a .360 OBP, 25 HR or 25 steals. And that's the entire outfield. Hard to see where the stud might be.

Starters

I'm worst at what I do best and for this gift I'm feeling blessed.

It's long been a Torkie strategem to load up on pitchers and run them in and out every day based on who's hot, who's not, and matchups. This has worked well in the past. I'm not so sure it's going to work well this year.

Starting out with the positives, Brett Anderson is a guy I love this year and a legit Cy Young candidate if healthy. There's a few guys that I like here to have bounceback seasons--John Lackey, CarZo, and maybe even Johnny Cueto. After that, it's a lot dicier. Edwin Jackson will walk the ballpark and threatens to kill the team's WHIP is not used carefully. Ivan Nova and Kyle Drabek are curiosities, but they're young 4th starters for now.

Now look, there are no real "stiffs" on this roster of pitchers. But there's a lack of guys who will be top-shelf pitchers in 2012. Come next year, when Adam Wainwright is healthy and Drabek and Anderson have some more innings under this belt, this could be a scary staff. But for now, it appears to be a clear level below some of the squads sporting aces up top.

Finally some good news--a staff I like. Brett Anderson is a guy I love and a dark horse Cy Young candidate. Lackey, Neimann, CarZo and Cueto are all good bounceback candidates, figure 2 of those should work out.

Relievers

I'm so ugly, but that's okay cause so are you.

This staff has NINE relievers, and if we asked 5 people to get there opinion on who the best reliever is, I think we'd get 5 different answers. Is it Ryan Franklin, who is probably the safest source for saves? Is it JJ Putz, who's looked good all spring? Is it Craig Kimbrel, who has the potential to be the next Joakim Soria? Or is it Chris Sale, who's probably the best pitcher of the bunch, but is currently pitching in the 7th inning?

There's a good chance that this team gets a ton of saves because there's a lot of closer mass here, and some guys who should get a bunch of vulture wins and K's. So yeah, that's one category they should be good at.

Outlook

What the hell am I trying to say?

It's hard for me to say something negative about a team that hasn't finished below 5th in ages, but this looks like a consolidation year for the Torkies. This isn't a surprise per se, as the team had to hemorrhage a lot of good players over the last two years, then this year ended up with 2 picks in the top 70 of a fairly shallow draft. And one of those was used on Wainwright, who won't help until next year. Which is the next time we think this team will compete.

Season Preview: Le Dupont Torkies

Death. Taxes. Tucker doing well in fantasy baseball. How well? Let's take a quick review:



2002: All records have been destroyed, but I know this team wasn't horrible.

2003: 4th place, a half point out of the money, and only 5 points from winning. This was even better than it seems because Tucker's crazy-good starting pitching was derailed in September when he hit the innings maximum that nobody knew existed.

2004: Won, with 106 points. The maximum, for those keeping score, is 120.

2005: 3rd place, behind two insanely stacked teams run by Scot and Teddy.

2006: Won.

2007: 2nd place, courtesy of a crazy-good season by It's Enrico Palazzo.

2008: Won, with 99.5 points. Side note: Scot somehow had 92.5 points this year and finished in third.

2009: Won, and again cracked the 100-point barrier.

To summarize, that's zero finishes out of the money since 2004, and barring the rules biting him (and everyone else) in the ass, it would be 7 straight money finishes. So it's a fait accompli that Tucker's in the top 3 again, right?

Infield

Phillie stalwart Chase Utley has been traded off to the Commish, which is akin to being banished to Siberia or the Kansas City Royals. In his place is Ben Zobrist, who not coincidentally was on 60% of winning fantasy rosters last year. The rest of the infield is the definition of a mixed bag. Carlos Pena is a great contract-year play, Russell Martin is either a bounceback candidate or a total flop waiting to happen, Stephen Drew's still One Year Away (or is he?) and Mark DeRosa went to Penn. An okay, not great unit.

Outfield

Adam Dunn and Jacoby Ellsbury perform roughly the same function that Holliday and Span did for the commish by covering all categories fairly well. Rounding out these slots are the wildly underrated Shane Victorino, who produces a little in all categories, and last year's Jason Heyward, Colby Rasmus. The team's going to need a breakout from Rasmus or Juan Pierre to not kill them in OBP and power to stay in the top half of the offensive categories.

Starting Pitching

One of the youngest and most upside-laden staffs in the league. Adam Wainwright's already a top-1o starter, Tommy Hanson may well join him by year's end, and Brett Anderson is a potential stud. Those three alone would make this one of the most potent staffs in the league, but they've also got hanging around the underrated Jeff Niemann, a My Guy in Brandon Morrow, solid citizen JA Happ, and intriguing wildcard Chris Volstad. Personally, I like this staff the most of anyone's in the league.

Relief Pitching

With four closers squarely in control of their jobs (Franklin, Soria, Fuentes, Hoffman), they're well on their way to 150 saves. What's also nice is these guys will keep the team ERA and WHIP in check, a good thing when you have young starters.

Outlook

For the first time in recent memory, this team isn't guaranteed 45+ points in hitting, which on paper makes it vulnerable. But I'm less sure that's the case. The pitching should be dominating. They're a top-3 squad in steals. They're going to have a high OBP. They'll score runs. That just leaves the power categories, which they can trade for. Do you want to bet against a repeat? Didn't think so.

Season Preview: Le Dupont Torkies

By any measure, 2008 was a hell of a year for the Torkies and their owner. Not only did they hoist another Wanksdorf championship flag, their beloved Phillies won the World Series. You can't really do better than that as a baseball nut.

The challenge now is for the Torkies to find a way to top (or even just repeat) themselves this year. The long, remorseless hand of the keeper cap snatched away big chunks of their roster this past offseason, putting the Torkies in rebuilding mode on draft day for the first time in years. They responded by grabbing some old (and we do mean old) familiar hitters in the hopes of keeping their string of solid seasons intact.

As was the case with Elbow Your Funicular? the result was a roster with several studs, but also a few gaping holes. Given the GMs track record, you have to like the team's chances of retooling its way into contention as the year goes on.

Infield

Any squad featuring Chase Utley and David Ortiz gets off to a pretty solid start, and 3B Ryan Zimmerman is a breakout candidate now that he has a few other major league hitters around him in DC. After that it gets interesting. Carlos Pena is solid, but not really a standout among the sluggers at 1B; the catching duo of Ramonner Martvarro is more hopeful than solid, and Khalil Greene sucks. The up-the-middle holes at C and SS are obvious and might be fixable via trade, as a couple of teams are either doubled up now at those spots, or will be doubled up once a minor leaguer gets called up. Work remains to be done.

Outfield

Built around two studs and two burners, this squad tries to make up for the lack of speed and OBP present in the IF. Manny Ramirez is safely back in the fold, with fellow Original First Rounder Vlad Guerrero around as a nice second option. The remaining slot will be filled by a speed platoon of interesting second-year man Denard Span and uninteresting 4-category albatross Slick Willy Taveras. If Span doesn't bloom the team might be better off punting SB entirely and finding another big-bat type OF to shore up the team's performance in the other 4 categories.

Pitching

Young and quick. The team owns every single closer in the Major Leagues, AAA, and the Central Ohio Semi-Professional Baseball and Roofing League. So go ahead and pencil in 12 points in the saves category. The starters aren't quite as dominant, though Chad Billingsley and Adam Wainwright give the team two solid guys up top. Although we're skeptical of Ryan Dempster's ability to sustain his performance of last year, we also love Erik Bedard as a bounceback candidate. This team is usually among the best at in-season management of his pitchers; they'll have to do so again with a thin bench behind the frontline guys unless Tommy Hansen comes up in June and takes the decision out of the team's hands.

Outlook

It's awfully tough to pick against this franchise. However, they haven't yet quite patched the holes left by the keeper cap last year. They should be in the mix, but will have to drive the hell out this team to get back into the money again this year.

Season Preview 2008: Le Dupont Torkies

We turn our delightful gaze now towards the 2006 champion Le Dupont Torkies, a squad whose success on the virtual diamond is only exceeded by their owner's hilarious indignation at the idiocracy of others. If you think Teddy and I are brutal, you have never seen the Wrath of Tucker post a hideous trade. It's a combination of humor, honesty and history. In other words, he's Ben Franklin, minus the pot belly and unrepeatable foibles.

What comes with the rampant (and usually merited) criticism is the unassailable fact that this has been the best team and owner in the league's 6-year history. Since changing their name from Toilet Phace to its current iteration, they have yet to finish out of the money and have a pair of league titles, and the owner will still argue that he should have won in 2003 but for the innings limit rule. What's made this even more impressive is that the league's level of difficulty has increased, what with the expulsion of 3-4 owners who didn't know their asses from the elbows and the addition of stalwarts Darrin, Scot and Alex, all of whom have a title to their credit. This team, unlike the Yankees, Rangers and Mariners, is proof that you can win with A-Rod.

Sadly for the Torkies (though not the balance of the league), 2008 represents a fulcrum year for the squad, as A-Rod next year becomes a 4-slot keeper under the new rules, and it's hard to see how they'll be able to keep him plus additionally expensive players like Chase Utley, Joe Mauer and Chone Figgins. So while it's not quite an end of an era season for this team, the immediacy of the pending availability of those players will make him, by necessity, an active trader throughout the year, be it as a buyer or seller.

2007 Recap: The 2006 Champs burst out to an epic lead by Memorial Day, amassing a 15+ point lead by June 1st. In keeping with league history, the lead fizzled by the All-Star game and they were caught by It's Enrico Pallazzo by August, who ran away with the title. This is the third time we've had a team open a huge lead in May (me in '03, Alex in '04) to watch it disappear by mid-summer. Let's call this the Terry Leach Phenomenon, named after a perennial quick starter that lapsed into craptitude every August.

Infield: Joe Mauer, James Loney, Chase Utley, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Young. When you start out with one MVP (A-Rod) and one shoulda been MVP (Utley), you can run mediocrities in the other 3 slots and be okay. Which they haven't done--Young is underrated and a nice bounceback candidate; Mauer's a catching stud; and Loney has Breakout Star written all over him, so long as Torre doesn't bench him for Nomar. Here's the best IF in the league, folks.

Outfield: Magglio Ordonez, Bobby Abreu, Manny Ramirez, Chone Figgins. An interesting vet collection that's high OBP, could slug 100 homers, and is probably good for 50 steals. Let's call this an "asset", though I'll note that Magglio is prime to bounce off last year and nobody likes Manny this year, meaning he'll hit 45 home runs

Bench: None. Well, that was easy. This squad always goes light on offense, and Figgins can play supersub, but I have to believe they'll be dropping a fizzled starter for something like Nate McLouth come May. Speaking of which...

Starters: Clay Buchholz, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tom Gorzelanny, Franklin Morales, Scott Baker, Boof!, Scott Olsen. Now that's a lot of young pitching. This seemingly inscrutable nontet can be divided into young Rockies, young Twins, druggies, guys from bad NL Central teams and Buchholz. The hedges are all over the place here--the Rockies guys should get W's but kill the rate stats; the Twins and NL Central guys may win a combined 30 games but strike out 1000 hitters, and Buchholz may spend significant PT in Rhode Island. This staff makes Jake's look secure. However, the owner's bold enough to act on the waiver wire with vigor, so I suspect we'll see some new faces come July.

Relievers: Jon Papelbon, Trevor Hoffman, Brandon Lyon, Jon Broxton, Heath Bell, Brian Fuentes. It's a mixed bag of closers here, with a young guy on a good team (Paps), a fair guy on a good team (Lyon), and an old guy on a fair team (Hoffman). The sad part is that Broxton's (left) the 2nd best pitcher here and he'll be of minimal value barring injury.

Breakout Star: James Loney will make me regret dumping him in favor of Matt Garza. Bank on it.

Bust Potential: Bobby Abreu does get the benefit of being on the Yanks for his counting stats, but I don't like his OBP and HRs to stay up.

X Factor: I can't pick just one from that staff can I? Actually yes--Adam Wainwright may be an ace in the making, and if he doesn't show signs of injury after tripling his workload last year, he could be the ace the team needs. He could also be on Dr. Frank Jobe's ER table in May.

Prediction: This offense is too good not to get the team 45+ points on the half of the ledger, but there's an abundance of reliance on lottery ticket pitchers and surprisingly little in the way off good trade bait. It's stupid to count out an owner that's finished worse than 4th exactly once, but this team needs a lot of arm help, and barring that, is going to struggle to compete for the top spot.

Can the Leader be Caught?

We're down to the homestretch of the season, and for all practical purposes, we're down to three teams with a chance to win it all. Which lends the question, besides why your humble author is guilty of putting up pictures that are relevant only for entertainment purposes: while It's Enrico Palazzo has held the lead for over two months now, does anyone have a realistic chance to catch them? Let's start with the standings as of September 11:

It's Enrico Palazzo-----91.5
Le Dupont Torkies-------85
Hand Banana------------84

To do this somewhat analytically, let's start by looking at each of the two challengers to the top spot and see if they can make up the necessary ground.

Hand Banana: As noted somewhat in my mid-season review, the talent on this squad has pulled through, leaving them in a nice 3rd place spot and in striking distance of the lead. They're currently in first place in R and RBI, making any gains there literally impossible. They're in second place in SBs and about 45 behind the leader, meaning they've maxed out their gain there as well. They're 5 HRs behind Jon for 2nd place in dingers, but only 3 ahead of the 4th place squad. At best this is a wash for also no gain. Which leaves OBP, where they're 0.001 behind two squads tied for 4th place. Seems easy, right? Well, maybe. Given the fact that they're already had roughly 5000 PAs for the season, the team would need to have a collective OBP of .377 for the rest of the season to make a jump of 2 points. That's a lot to ask. So let's split the difference and say they gain 1 spot here. Offensive gain: +1 point.

On the pitching side of the ledger, this squad is pretty much locked into their slots on Saves and ERA. They're only 7 K's behind Sexy Rexy, but he's still throwing heat daily with Oliver!, Snell, Halladay, Zito and some nice relievers. They'll be lucky to make up that point. They're tied with Jon in the Wins department, and his starters have given up on the year, so give them the half point here. The team two wins ahead of them, Tessio's Revenge, just lost Bonderman for the year and has Noah Lowry as their best starter, so let's even say they catch them for 5th place and another gain. Which leaves the amorphous and unpredictable category of WHIP, where we find this squad tied with our Newcomer for 9th and a hundredth of a point behind the next team. To drop that point would require a WHIP of 1.25 for the rest of the season---not impossible, but not exactly something you can bank on the way this team's pitching has been all year. Let's be nice and give them a half point for breaking the tie. Pitching gain: +2 points

Final tally--Hand Banana, 87 points, 89 if everything breaks well.

Le Dupont Torkies: We now come to our defending champs, who have had a rollercoaster year. Have they peaked? Maybe. They have zero shot of gaining a point in runs and are going nowhere in OBP, but are a mere RBI behind Hand Banana for the top spot, that's a placing they could gain. They're 4 SBs from gaining a deuce in steals; if they don't get these, you can point directly to the Utley injury as the straw that ruined this team's year. Still, I like them to make up that ground in the last month. Infinitely more intriguing is the fact that they're a homer behind both IEP! and Tessio, who are tied at 169 dingers. Given they've got the best dinger-ific lineup of the troika, I like them to gain both points here. Offensive gain: +3 points.

That's it for the good news, because if you're inclined, take a look at the pitching side of the ledger. There are NO places for this team to go up, and a small chance they'll lose a point here. We'll just call it a wash and call it a day.

Final tally---Le Dupont Torkies: 88 points, 90 points if all breaks correctly.

Which means that as currently constituted, both squads are going to need IEP to regress a little bit. Can this be done? Let's break it down by each category:

Runs: The team below them trails them by 48 runs. Nope.
HR: As mentioned, they're tied with Ironhead and a dinger ahead of the Torkies. They could lose 1 1/2 points here, they could gain a 1/2 point here. Let's say they lose 1/2 a point to be safe and argumentative.
RBI: Jake could catch them for a spot, as he's only 5 behind. However, he's rightfully celebrating the birth of his beautiful new child, so that's just not gonna happen.
SB: Jose Reyes has a better chance of coughing up his title than IEP.
OBP: Not happening. At worst, we're looking at -1 1/2 on offense, and less is likely.

Wins: Nope.
Saves: Nope.
ERA: Nope.
WHIP: Nope.
K's: There's an outside chance Alex re-rallies from his amazingly disappointing second half and snares a point here. That's wishcasting a bit though. I like no change here either.

Final Tally: 90 points, at worst, we're looking at 88.5 here.

So what's the ultimate conclusion? The leaders are in great shape, but have clinched nothing. The defending champs are still in it, but need some help. Hand Banana (the '05 champs), need double help--not only to have things break well for them, but for both teams in front of them to regress. I'd call it unlikely, but not impossible.

All in all, it actually means for a change we have a September that's meaningful in the league for the race to win it all, which has been a rarity to date. How refreshing.

Season Preview: Le Dupont Torkies

Le Dupont Torkies

Honest to God, until Angelo came up with the picture at right, I thought that "Torkies" was either a made-up word or some kind of derogatory term for a well-dressed man. Instead, I've learned that it's a code for some sort of Frankendog made up of parts of a Terrier, parts of a Yorkie, and probably parts of the biggest dog of them all, Heathcliff Slocumb.

Once my ignorance was made clear, I did a little research to see how far I had strayed from the mean level of cultural literacy. As a guy who makes his living (metaphorically speaking) on random cultural references, I was afraid that I had fallen irrevocably behind the curve.

You can imagine my relief, then, when I Googled the word "torkies" and found that this very blog was returned as the 7th-most relevant site. (Please bear in mind that, despite its name, this blog is only the 3rd-most relevant site for on the web for gowanus+baseball.) While we here at the GRBG are proud of and grateful for the modest readership we've put together thus far, the notion that we are among the top ten repositories of Torkie knowledge on the web evokes in us a strange combination of humbleness, bafflement, and alarm. We can only hope that the GRBG will continue to serve as a beacon for Torkie lovers everywhere and pray that, in God's own time, we'll crack the Top Ten for Enrico Palazzo references as well.

So, what was I talking about again? Right, right, the other team in the league that always wins. Well, they'll probably be good again this fucking year. The franchise was forced to shed a lot of talent in the offseason following a bunch of acquisitions of upcoming FAs during the stretch run last season. The team responded by taking on a lot of risk in the preseason, especially on the pitching side. Some of that risk has already paid off, as Jon Papelbon has been moved back into the closer's slot, where he should hold down the fort for the next decade or so.

Infield

Here's the first sign of a drop off from last year's squad, with stud 1Bs Adam Dunn and Mark Teixeira replaced with Ryan Shealy, a guy who projects as a sort of evolutionary Brian Daubauch. Backup Dan Johnson might well snake this spot, as he was banged up nearly all of last season, and has a bunch of 1B/DH PAs to himself this year in Oakland. However, I like SS Jhonhnhy Peralta for a bounceback this year, as he apparently played all last year with blurred vision that was corrected by offseason Lasik surgery. The rest of the IF/UTIL is dominant with Travis Hafner, Chase Utley and Alex Rodriguez around.

Outfield

This unit is anchored by ex-Phil Bobby Abreu, who has set off on one of the odder late-career roto paths in history. Unlike most older corner OFs, Abreu has kept his speed (30 SBs last year) while losing his power (15 HRs) . The HR drop came despite playing last year in Philly and Yankee Stadium, two of the best HR parks in baseball for left-handed hitters. Abreu's OBP and R RBI totals should stay level at worst with a full season in New York. It will be interesting to see, though, whether the Yankees send him on the basepaths as often as Philly did, especially since Abreu is more likely to have a power bat behind him in New York. If Abreu's SB total drops down to 15 to match his HRs, he'll go from a cornerstone OF to a complementary player.

Raul Ibanez and Chris Duffy round out the OF. In the wake of Duffy's trade to the Dodgers, both are OK players stuck in unfavorable hitting environments that limit their value. Brad Hawpe provides more punch but no speed, which puts even more pressure on Abreu to keep running.

Pitching

The staff is based around veteran innings-eaters John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, and Fab Five Freddy Garcia. You can pencil those guys in for good counting stats if only because they're very good about taking the ball every 5th day. However, the fortunes of the team will really rise or fall based on its two Tremendous Upside youngsters, Dick Harden and Rich Hill. Nobody's ever questioned Harden's ability, but he has missed significant chunks of time over the course of his major league career. Hill posted a fantastic K rate last year, but one that was well out of line with his minor league history. If both of these guys come through, the Torkies will be right back near the top. If both flame out, the fantasy replacement level guys who come in will sink the rotation. Given the year to year volatility of pitchers generally, I like the approach of getting the highest-upside guys you can find, and hoping that you can beat the house and see them through to the end of the season healthy.

Now that Papelbon is back the bullpen is in OK shape to start, with Bob Wickman and Todd Jones around to rack up Saves and Heart Attacks Induced in roughly equal measure. But with both Jones and Wickman clearly less talented than their backups (and with those backups already taken by other teams in the league), any dip in form will lead to a benching and a need for the Torkies to plug the gap.

Prognosis: Probably the toughest team in the league to handicap. Tons of talent; even more risk. I'll split the difference and say they end up in the first division, but out of the money.