Basically, we were within shouting distance for 8 teams, but missed big on 2 teams in each direction. So what happened? Let's see where things went right and wrong for our picks last year.12. President Skroob (Ang 12/Teddy 12)
We were right about:
The team not being very good, though that was akin to correctly predicting that the Washington Generals would struggle against the Globetrotters last season. Still, we'll take the bullseyes where we can get them.
We were wrong about:
The staff, which I unfortunately described as featuring "the best 1-7 starting pitching in the league." Whoops--the team finished with 7 of a possible 48 points in the starting pitching categories, as injuries to Chris Carpenter's arm and Barry Zito's talent torpedoed the team.
11. Mike/Windy City Windfalls (Ang 6/Teddy 5)
We were right about:
The weakness of the pitching staff--Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, and Jason Jennings on the same staff? Yikes. We also pegged the risk profile of the team, which Ang described as one "that's going to either run into the top 2 slots, or crater badly and trade off assets for next year." There was an unmistakeable cratering, and even a fun, if ultimately unsuccessful effort to trade off assets.
We were wrong about:
Who the freaking owner would be by the end of the season. Though, to be fair, it would have been hard to see that coming.
10. bondermans grundle (Ang 10/Teddy 11)
We were right about:
The finishing slot; the manifest insanity of drafting Rich Aurillia in anything other than a fantasy back-forking league.
We were wrong about:
The "upside" of a staff featuring future AAA castoffs Ervin Santana and Kei Igawa.
9. The Spam Avengers (Ang 3/Teddy 1)We were right about:
We correctly predicted that none of the team's players would be eaten by wolves. Other than that, not much other than the riskiness of the starting pitching.
We were wrong about:
Where to begin? My pick of the team to win it all? Ang's choices of Mike Cameron and Morgan Ensberg as potential bounceback guys? Our mutual confidence that the first signs of weakness in the residential mortgage-backed securities market wouldn't cause a broader sell-off in the stock market? Mulligan. Or mulligans, plural, I guess. I don't have a very good explanation for what happened to this team; as late as August I expected them to make a run.
8. Lefty's Revenge (Ang 5/Teddy 7) (Hey, I finally got one closer than Ang!)
We were right about:
The team's roster construction likely forcing it to punt steals (they ultimately finished 11th in that category) and saves (T-10th), thus dooming it to mediocrity.
We were wrong about:
Julio Lugo's production in Boston being "likely to skew more heavily towards R and OBP and less towards SB." Lugo ended the season with 33 steals and an OBP below .300. Laser accurate!
7. Nigerian Gentlemen (Ang 8/Teddy 8)
We were right about:
The bullpen, which Ang described as featuring "a pair of Shea Stadium washouts and a guy who isn't closing for the Red Sox but would be the opening day starter for the Nationals." The team ultimately finished T-10th in saves.
We were wrong about:
Anibal Sanchez as a breakout candidate, as we failed to appreciate the degree to which Joe Girardi had fed Sanchez's arm into the sausage grinder.
T-4. Ed Rooney's Office (Ang 9/Teddy 9)
We were right about:
The team not having enough offense to compete as drafted; the record-breaking K potential of the starting OF (Adam Dunn, Delmon Young, Juan Pierre); the strength of the starting pitching.
We were wrong about:
The team not being able to violate a bedrock fantasy tenet by finding lots of offense (in the forms of Carlos Pena and Mike Lowell) on the waiver wire. Combined, Pena and Lowell accounted for 31 more HR and 107 more RBI than the players originally drafted to fill their slots. The difference bumped the team up by 9 points and several places in the league.
T-4 Evil Empire (Ang 11/Teddy 10)
We were right about:
The team not having enough pitching to compete as drafted in Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Josh, Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers Roasters. Holy Christ--other than Harang, that's a who's-who of who Hindenberg'ed last year.
We were wrong about:
Again, the transactions page. This time, it was pitching pickups Jeff Francis and Tim Wakefield that steadied the ship, giving EE a big bump in W's. Also, while we knew the pen was strong, we didn't think it would be league-best strong.
T-4. The Sex Cannons (Ang 2/Teddy 2)
We were right about:
This team making a run at the board for the first time in forever; the team's likely power production (finished 1st in HR and 3d in RBI).
We were wrong about:
The likely OBP production of the team; the idea that after one law degree, three jobs, one marriage, and 243 cans of Duke-blue face paint, our Peerless Leader would finally cash some money back out of this league. Don't feel too bad, though--we have it on good information that he sinks all of our league dues into T-bills for the duration of the season, so he at least sees some return on his time investment.
3. Hand Banana (Ang 1/Teddy 4)
We were right about:The imminent implosion of Bronson Arroyo and consequent weakening of the pitching staff; how stupidly good the offense would be.
We were wrong about:
For the first time, I'm kinda stumped here. I dunno, maybe we were overly skeptical of Curtis Granderson?
2. Le Dupont Torkies (Ang 4/Teddy 3)
We were right about:
The weakness of the outfield as drafted (Bobby Abreu, Raul Ibanez, Chris Duffy); the relative ease with which the OF could be fixed on the fly during the season.
We were wrong about:
Jhohnhnhy Peralta as a bounceback guy; plus we were a little too down on the team as a whole, given the franchise's track record. Still, as with the last two teams, pretty close in general. Unlike . . .
1. Its Enrico Palazzo (Ang 7/Teddy 6)
We were right about:
Very little, though that's at least in part because we couldn't think of anything to say about them. We did glom onto the idea that a trade involving Mike Young could help them better allocate their talent, but that trade ended up happening after IEP had pretty well guaranteed themselves a spot on the board anyway.
We were wrong about:
What's the plural for mea culpa?
So, with that in mind, we approach the start of a new fantasy season. We'll try our hand at predictions again, though the above should be a reminder that they should be taken with a Bartolo Colon-sized lump of salt. Get ready for the draft, and somebody call me about trading for Jarrod Saltalamacchia!
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