7/29 DSRA: The Quick Call

A little pressed for time today, so let's get to a quick analysis of the Quick Call, and overnight stakes for 3 year olds at a mile on the turf. Yes, I know we're a little turf heavy, but that's what the racing gods are giving us. Lonesome Street and Lighthouse Sound look like pace factors only; they're out. Turf Melody has given zero indication that he's going to like the grass, and Alfarabi appears to be Too Damn Slow. Let's look at the remaining four:

1. Our Douglas. A horrible, horrible name, he repeatedly closes well and generally loses. Looks like exotics fodder.

2. Lethal Combination. Also the perpetual bridesmaid, he at least has some tactical speed meaning he'd get first run on Our Douglas.

6. Beau Choix. The morning line favorite based on the big 94 last out GSF, but he looks a little cheap, coming out of a bunch of failed maiden efforts and a minor race on the Preakness undercard.

7. Psychic Income. Closed stoutly in the Jefferon Cup at big odds (why was he a price?), he's getting good at the right time, has nice breeding, and looks to be the most consistent horse in the field. He's our pick.

1st: Psychic Income
2nd: Lethal Combination
3rd: Our Douglas

Mrs. Blog's selection: Lighthouse Sound. "He sucks, but so do your picks."

Yesterday's picks: Perfect Shirl headed an all Canada trifecta (whoops) while pick Bay to Bay never got on track. That's two bad ones in a row for us. Mrs. Blog notes that she would have picked Perfect Shirl had I told her beforehand that the horse was a half to Shakespeare. Ah well.

Results to date:

1st: 5/1-2-0, +$19.00
2nd: 5/1-0-0
3rd: 5/1-0-0
MB: 5/2-0-1 +$1.10

7/28 DSRA: The Lake George Stakes

There are niches in sports, and then there's 3 year old filly turf racing. No preamble, let's get right to this year's Lake George, a $150,000 Grade 2 race at a mile and a sixteenth on the sod.

1. House of Grace. Went off in last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies (talk about niches--2yo gals on the turf?) at 8-1, she ran a fast closing 3rd before getting purchased by Godolphin and taking 7 months off. She came back in an optional claimer where she was outkicked, but has been working out well since then, and stands to improve 2nd off the long layoff.

2. Crescenda. Has never been out of the exacta, but something just doesn't sit right with this gal. Maybe it's the fact she's never been under 9-2 in a race, maybe it's that I've never heard of her trainer, or maybe it's because her breeding is goofy (Bowman's Band out of a Naveus dam?). Has a shot based on her decent Sands Point, but I'm siding against.

3. Khancord Kid. Has speed but has never topped an 81 GSF. Looking elsewhere.

4. Neon Light. Ships in from Dusseldorf after a bang-up 3rd in the German 1000 Guineas, this gal's got interesting breeding (Refuse to Bend was a useful miler, General Assembly's not a bad damsire) and Andreas Wohler is probably the best German trainer. That said, German racing is second-tier European racing, so while it's normally wise to assume that a G3 European shipper is better than a G3 American horse, it's not necessarily true with German horses.

5. Perfect Shirl. One of two horses to ship in from Canada for Roger Attfield, this one looks like the speed horse to set things up for...

6. No Explaining. Has run three times this year with two wins in allowance races and a good third in a minor turf sprint stakes. I really, really like this breeding--Azamour should be a very good turf sire, and Green Desert is an excellent damsire. She appears to have solid tactical speed and should get first run on the closers. Que interesting.

7. Go Ask Alex. Well, she did wire the field in something called the Indiana Distaff Stakes. Since then she's provided nothing but a lot of early speed and a lot of late fading.

8. Strike it Rich. The morning line favorite off three straight wins in wire to wire fashion, she's probably going to have to at least try to sit off the pace, because there are 3 clear front runners to her inside. It's not impossible, but it strikes me as unlikely. Plus she's got the 4-straight-increasing GSF curse against her. Looking elsewhere.

9. Dynazaper. $300,000 purchase that's been pretty disappointing so far, what with 2 wins in 7 starts. But there might be something to like here: she ran well to win the Edgewood two back, then had a wide trip to take then lose the lead in the Regret. She draws an outer post again, but also gets back Julian Leparoux, who rode her to victory in the Edgewood. Hmmm.

10. Exclusive Love. It's raining Canadians!

11. Caminadora. Completely shocked everyone by winning the Regret at 32-1 in her last when she rallied from 18 lengths out to take it for Todd Pletcher, who almost never wins with longshots. Where did that last race come from? Unclear. Looks like a huge bounce candidate.

12. Bay to Bay. Never out of the triple, this Canadian ex-pat has had a pretty good year, with a good 2nd in the Appalachian, a fast win at Arlington, then a nice second to Strike it Rich in the paceless Boiling Springs. Nothing to really criticize here except the outside post.

Selections: Bay to Bay is a pretty deserving choice, but there are a few others that look intriguing as well in a pretty competitive race. House of Grace looks very eligible to improve off the layoff and Dynazaper is probably better than her last race indicates. Neon Light can't be dismissed as the curious new face, and No Explaining has a shot as well. If we were playing a Pick Something, we'd use all five horses and cross our fingers for the longest price. Since we're picking the race outcome, we'll go with Bay to Bay, who's probably the best horse.

1. Bay to Bay 2. Dynazaper 3. House of Grace

Mrs. Blog's Pick: No Explaining. "And I'm not explaining."

Monday's results: Hull was bad and Congor Bay was worse. Hey, everyone's entitled to a bad pick. Congrats to the missus for getting it right with Checklist.

Results to Date: Still on the plus side.

1st: 4/1-2-0, +$21.00
2nd: 4/1-0-0
3rd: 4/1-0-0
MB: 4/2-0-0, +$3.10

7/26 DSRA: Monday's "Feature" Race

The so-called "feature" race on the card--i.e., the best race--usually is the next to last race on the card. The race with the best purse on Monday's card is actually the Evan Shipman, a NY bred stakes race, but it's the 3rd race for...actually, I'm not sure why. But the feature race is a nice little optional claimer/non-winners of 3 (see yesterday's post for the explanation) at 6 furlongs on the dirt. It's a field of 7, and let's get to it.

1. Congor Bay. This horse should be better simply based on his breeding: Speightstown was a champion sprinter (and a well bred one at that) and Pico Teneriffe was a multiple stakes winner on the grass and dirt. His half brother, Marchfield, was Canadian horse of the year in 2008 and 2009. But this guy's never won anything of note and now makes his dirt debut after having 14 starts on the grass and synthetics. He doesn't match up on GSF's, but the dirt breeding and connections (Tommy Albertrani, who's good, and Rajiv Maragh, who's having a nice year) are solid enough that you'd like to think about him a bit more.

2. Endless Circle. He's won 5 of his last 6, and his trainer Rudy Rodriguez is simply on fire this year, winning with 36% of his starts. Still, something just doesn't quite compute here. He was losing against $16,000 claimers in Aqueduct 6 months ago, and now he's a borderline graded stakes winner? To top it off, his GSF's have improved 3 straight times. I don't have the stat handy, but something like 94% of horses off a triple improve regress in the 4th race. I don't like him to buck those odds.

3. Rollers. On his best day he's probably the best horse in the race, what with a 107 GSF in his last race, a 10-4-4-0 record on fast dirt, a win in the Gallant Bob at Philly Park and a 2nd in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector. And he's a "horse for the course": he's got 3 wins and a second in his 4 starts at the Spa. The problem is he hasn't run in over a year, and his prior return from a 9+ month layoff in 2008 was not encouraging--he ran ok, but a non-threatening second in a state-bred race. Shouldn't it be tougher to come back now from a longer layoff, especially because he's older?

4. Checklist. The probable favorite with the Pletcher/Velazquez connections and the huge 104 GSF in his win 3 races ago at Gulfstream. The thing is, that 11 1/2 length romp at Gulfstream looks like the exception, not the rule. I'll give him a pass for prompting the pace in the True North two races back and finishing third behind the good Bribon; I will not give him a pass for a blah 4th at Monmouth against nobody special last time out.

5. Dr. W. A solid enough citizen who's made almost $350,000 mostly in state-bred races, he has zero upside and even on his best day, is no better than Checklist.

6. Hamazing Destiny. This guy's capable of firing a huge effort--he did exactly that in his last race; his race before that was a good win under very similar conditions, and his November '09 romp was also impressive. All three of those races have one thing in common: they were are Churchill Downs. Since we're talking about a race in upstate New York, I'm less interested.

7. Hull. The lone graded stakes winner in the field, he won the Derby Trial last year before running a goofy 4th in the Woody Stephens. I say "goofy" because I remember the race well--I had the trifecta--and his jockey, Mario Mena, had no idea what to do with him, be it press the pace, sit back, whatever. The result was a beaten 4th to the very good Munnings and Kensei. He took the rest of '09 off and came back to run poorly in a synthetic allowance race and worse in the ambitiously placed Churchill Handicap on Derby Day. But this is probably the first sensible spot this guy has run in this year: dirt, one turn, 6 furlongs, fast track, optional claimer...it's a good place to get him back on track. Additionally, he gets back Robby Albarado, who at least is competent in the saddle. And he's been working up an absolute storm, with two bullet workouts. Hmmmm.

Selections: There are enough question marks surrounding Checklist and Rollers that this looks like a good spot to go value hunting. Hull and Congo Bay are the two most obvious spots, both getting fast dirt for either the first time in over a year or ever, respectively. Plus Hull may well appreciate the cutback in distance and class more than anyone else here. For the third slot, I'll go with Checklist, who may fade from the front end but is unlikely to simply drop to DAFL.

1. Hull 2. Congo Bay 3. Checklist

Mrs. Blog's Pick: Checklist. "If you bet Endless Circle that's stupid. All circles are endless."

Yesterday's Results: Pick Followmyfootsteps stalked a moderate pace and took over midstretch to win at 13-1. Our other picks did little or nothing, but a $29 winner is nothing to sneeze at. Hope someone reading this cashed.
Results to date: Followmyfootsteps' win puts us well in the positive for now. But let's not stop now and keep this going.

1st: 3/1-2-0, +$23
2nd: 3/1-0-0
3rd: 3/1-0-0
MB: 3/1-0-0

7/25 DSRA: An Allowance Turf Race

Sundays at Saratoga are great because, well, it's Sunday and you're at the track. But frequently the racing is disappointing. The major stakes races are usually on Saturdays, the ones we find interesting seem to pop up on Fridays, and Sundays often get NY bred stakes races, goofy maiden events, and odd ball stakes like 11 furlongs for fillies on the turf.

The first Sunday is no exception, as the Sanford--the first 2yo colt's stakes race in Saratoga--is the headliner, and the field is fine but not particularly interesting. Let's instead turn to the race before, which is 1 1/16 mile optional claimer on the inner turf. To decipher that for the uninitiated:

• 8 1/2 furlongs is a middle distance for turf races; you'll see horses in the race who run it frequently, stretch out from a sprint, or shorten up from something longer.

• An optional claimer is just that--you have the option to run your horse for a tag if you'd like to. Why? Well, the race is for horses that haven't won more than two races other than a maiden or claiming race or for any horse that wants a $50,000 tag (meaning anyone can buy him before the race with a check for $50,000). This allows horses with better credentials to run against horses with lesser credentials if the owner is willing to risk losing the horse in the race. Not surprisingly, there's only 1 turf horses running for a tag.

• The "inner turf" is just that--the inside track of the two Saratoga turf courses. Lore has it that speed holds up better on the inner turf because the turns are tighter and the stretch is shorter. Experience has taught us that lore is wrong, they're both pretty fair.

We're picking this race today not because the next coming of Kelso is involved, but because it has horses that have three of my favorite angles to play every year at Saratoga.

1. The Overbet Mediocrities. Non-winners of 2 races often means you'll get horses that look okay on paper, but taking a step back, you see that they're 2-for-some large number, and have to question why they can't win a race. We have a few of them here: Uncle Indy is 2-for-18 (and 5-1 on the morning line), Conservative is 2-for-14, Slambino is 3-for-27 (including 12 losses in a row), Rock in Bage is 2-for-17, and favorite Mikoshi is 2-for-14, with 7 other finishes in the money. Can you say hanger?

2. The George Weaver Special. I actually think this guy's underrated everywhere, but at Saratoga, he's a live play every year with turf horses. Today he brings us Peace Wine, who's 10-1 on the morning line.

3. The Former Jumper. I have zero data to back this one up, just anecdotal memories. Every year we get a horse that was a former steeplechase runner, usually trainer by Tommy Voss or Jonathan Sheppard, who becomes a turf runner and wins at Saratoga. I remember this happening, without exaggeration, 10 times at Saratoga and never elsewhere. Here, we have a Voss former jumper in Followmyfootsteps, who now adds good jockey Ramon Dominguez and is 12-1, despite running a good 3rd to Nicanor (Barbaro's baby and not dead brother) in his last.

We'll go with those two horses for the exacta. For the 3 slot, let's try Austintacious, who at least is eligible to improve in his 6th career start.

1st: Followmyfootsteps
2nd: Peace Wine
3rd: Austintacious

Mrs. Blog's Pick: Conservative. "For better or for worse, oh who am I kidding, always for worse, conservatives always win."

Yesterday's Results: We noted yesterday that our picks were to be taken with a grain of salt pending how the race was bet, and lo and behold, Wine Police was bet down to 5-2 and won easily over our choice Soldat. That's now two horses we've picked to win who have come in second.

Results to date: Still winless, but our picks haven't been that bad so far.

1st: 2/0-2-0
2nd: 2/1-0-0
3rd: 2/1-0-0
MB: 2/1-0-0

7/24 Daily Saratoga Race Analysis: Our First Maiden Race

One of the real treats at Saratoga is seeing all the new 2 year olds, as many of the best debut at the Spa every year. There are a lot of aspects to this: seeing the potential new star, seeing new sires with their first crops, seeing what trainers are armed for the fall and (potentially) the classics next year, and seeing who overpaid for a horrible horse.

Without further ado, let's turn to the 7th race on Saturday, a 2 year old maiden race for the boys at 5 1/2 furlongs. We like to look at a few things when analyzing a 2yo maiden: breeding (and an immediate tip of the cap to pedigreequery.com is due), trainer, workouts, and if applicable, prior race(s). A key aspect that we can't comment on in advance is how much a horse is being bet. If a first-time starter is bet down a lot at the Spa, give the horse an extra look, because tips on the backstretch are a thing of lore.

2. Santiva. You have to like sire Giant's Causeway, but the dam, Slide, is nothing special: he's her twelfth offspring, and the first 11 weren't any good.

3. Mythical Truth. Leah Gyramati is known for training New York breds in New York bred races. This horse and race don't fit the profile at all.

1. Biddy. Songandaprayer is a good sire for 2yos, but the dam was unraced and this is her first foal. This guy's first race was neither horrible nor great, but Pletcher wins about 25% of the time with second time starters, so he's clearly eligible to improve.

4. Goodtimehadbyall. I have no clue who trainer Merrill Scherer is. What I do know is that if a horse by Quiet American out of an AP Indy dam only cost $20,000, it must have some real conformation issues. His first two races weren't bad, but query whether he's really going to be a turf horse, which is why he did better on a synthetic surface last out.

5. Cherryzapper. Horses trained by Eric Guillot, the pride of Louisiana Downs, that can't break 50 on the GSF scale generally don't win at Saratoga.

1a. Joe Vann. The first runner out of momma Polish Flower who was unraced but well-bred, this horse sports the usual solid breeding, expensive price tag ($175k) and solid string of workouts you get with a Pletcher first timer at Saratoga. The difficulty is going to be that he's coupled with Biddy in the entries, so if the wagering is around 5-2, is that an endorsement or not?

6. Derivative. I'm disqualifying this guy based on name alone, as either he's named after the financial instruments that nearly wrecked capitalism or sadistic mathematics. Plus he's trained by Wayne Lukas, who never wins anymore with first timers.

7. Soldat. The probable favorite off an excellent debut where at 11-1 he dueled and lost in the mud at Belmont. Did the wet track move him up? Maybe. But McLaughlin horses generally improve second time out, this guy clearly has early speed, and has a race under him. I can't emphasize the importance of that enough: most maiden winners are not first time starters, they're horses that have raced and lost before.

8. Wine Police. First year sire (Speightstown) and first foal from the dam, who was a fair horse in Canada. This one's a clear Watch the Toteboard horse: if Asmussen's horses are bet, they're worth considering. If it's 6-1 or greater, pass.

9. Wascally Rabbit. This guy's got some fairly goofy breeding: a first time sire that nobody particularly cares about (Imperialism, who was 3rd in the 2004 Derby but really a 7f/mile specialist) and a dam with no prior foals out of an obscure sire (Linkage). You have to like the bullet workouts, but Contessa is not known for his success with 2yos or first time starters.

Selections: Soldat is a pretty good looking favorite, and we're not inclined to pick against him. But there may be some value in the slots underneath; neither of the Pletcher horses is jumping off the page with talent/breeding, Goodtimehadbyall is likely to be overbet, and it's tough to warm up to Derivative. For the underneath slot, we'll go with the two outside horses: Wascally Rabbit, who might be primed as a first time starter, and Wine Police, on the theory that Asmussen means business the first weekend of the meet.

1. Soldat 2. Wascally Rabbit 3. Wine Police

Mrs. Blog's Pick: "I like Mythical Truth. It's an oxymoron. Like the Penn Fighting Quakers."

Yesterday's picks: Our concerns about Vineyard Haven's layoff were for naught as he dueled with Flat Bold and held off our pick Half Metal Jacket to win by a length. Congrats to the missus for picking the winner, and not a bad start for us by picking the exacta in reverse, all in the search for a price.

Results to date: We're going to publish how we've done so far with the records of our 1st, 2nd and 3rd place selections, plus the return on investment (ROI) on our winners, to the extent we have any. For those who ask, the reason we're also putting how many picks we've had are for the dates we can't post and/or the pick scratches.

1st: 1/0-1-0, $0.00 ROI
2nd: 1/1-0-0
3rd: 1/0-0-0
MB: 1/1-0-0

New Feature: The Daily Saratoga Race Analysis

For about a month, we (mainly Teddy) entertained at least 6 people with daily commentary, insight and wit concerning a sport in it's ascendancy in America: international soccer. 20,000 words and some heady predictions later and it's safe to say that the Gazette actually provided real fussball content for a long while.

In a similar vein, we (mainly Angelo) are going to provide quasi-regular coverage of a sport in decline: horse racing. No, I'm not about to start griping as nauseum about detention barns, NYRA's insolvency and advance deposit wagering disputes. Instead, let's turn our attention to the Shangri-La of thoroughbred racing: the 2010 Saratoga meet.

The premier racing meet in America, once upon a time Saratoga was 24 days of racing confined to August while the rich relaxed in their northern New York getaways. Fast-forward to 2010, and the meet is 40 days, starts in late July and ends on Labor Day, and its headline story for the meet is the opening of a hamburger stand. This still doesn't change that it's a picturesque location with history around every corner, some of the best racing in America, and is fun to watch and go to. Simply stated, if you don't like Saratoga racing, you don't like summer.

We're not going to blog the entire meet and every race because (1) even I don't care that much, and (2) I have a paying job. But we're going to try to examine and analyze a race a day, often the day's featured race, with the idea of showing that there's more to the sport than the Triple Crown. For example, Saratoga is where some of the best two year olds in America make their debuts, often to some fanfare. There are key races in the older horse, filly and mare and turf divisions. All of them should get attention, not just the Travers. We're going to try to do that, as well as pick a couple of winners. For the sake of accountability, we'll keep track of how we do.

I'm kind of excited. Let's see if everyone can learn something about the sport in the process. For now, let's whet everyone's appetite with a classic replay of a race from two years ago.