Saratoga Special: The Alabama

Although it gets 1/100000 of the attention of its male counterpart, there is a female equivalent version of the Triple Crown, called the Triple Tiara. What exact races have made up the Triple Tiara have varied over the years, but it's always been New York based, and it's always consisted of three races from the Acorn, Mother Goose, Coaching Club of America Oaks, and the Alabama. And every time it's been swept, it's by a quality horse. All 8 horses to sweep the series are in the Racing Hall of Fame, and two of them (Ruffian, Shuvee) are among the 10 best American fillies ever.

Today, in the 131st running of the Alabama, It's Tricky goes for the 9th sweep of the Triple Tiara. It hasn't been done since Sky Beauty pulled off the sweep in 1993. Can she do it? Let's take a look at the intriguing competition in the 10 furlong dirt race.

1. Royal Delta (6-1 morning line). The beaten favorite in the CCA Oaks, where she was bet down to favoritism off her high Gowanus Speed Figure in the Black Eyed Susan, where she won easily and beat Buster's Ready, who came back to win the Mother Goose. Trainer Bill Mott chose not to run her again until the CCA Oaks--9 weeks later--and when the serious running began, she came up empty. An optimistic read is that she needed the race off a layoff and could move forward here. We're a little more pessimistic, and think that it's more likely that the Black Eyed Susan was an outlier and the GSF is inflated. She's beautifully bred and has a right to improve, but we're looking elsewhere for the winner.

2. Pinch Pie (15-1). Has never had a speed figure decline in her seven races. Unfortunately, she started off with a 38 and has only wound up at a 78, and in a turf start at that. Not only is she too slow to compete with these, she's completely bereft of early speed and will be hard pressed to be a factor at all.

3. Plum Pretty (2-1). The likely early pacesetter, she won the Kentucky Oaks just off the front end, and followed that up with a pair of close seconds to putative division leaders Zazu and It's Tricky in the Hollywood Oaks and CCA Oaks. There's a chance she gets away with dominating the race on the front end because there isn't much other speed in the race, but we note that in her three races at 9 furlongs, she barely held on in the Kentucky Oaks and gave up the lead inside the sixteenth pole in the other two. It's tough to see how the extra distance is going to actually help her.

4. It's Tricky (9-5). She's actually underrated for a horse that's won 2 graded stakes and only lost once. The nicely bred Godolphin horse won her first three races at Aqueduct over last winter, which isn't exactly a proving ground for greatness, so they shipped her to Florida for the Gulfstream Park Oaks, where she foundered over a track that many horses don't like. Completely ignored in the Acorn, she went off at a generous 10-1, where she sat off a fairly lively pace set by a horse that folded easily and won easily over the talented Turbulent Descent (who came back and won clobbered the field in the Test). That said, the win was over the slop, which lead to her going off in the CCA Oaks at a fairly generous 4-1, and she prevailed willingly over Plum Pretty in the stretch.

She's well-bred (2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft out of a well-bred Tale of the Cat mare), is in the hands of a fabulous trainer (Kieran McLaughlin), and has tactical speed. There's no particular reason to think she can't go 10 furlongs. The only real downside with her is that she's difficult to train and ride, a little reminiscent of Coronado's Quest in 1998, who misbehaved his way out of the Triple Crown races. (And then went on to win the Haskell and Travers when his head was screwed on straight.) If she acts up, she might be vulnerable.

5. St. John's River (5-1). Exits a victory in the Delaware Oaks, which oddly, has been the best source for finding Alabama winners recently--the last three winners (Blind Luck, Careless Jewel and Proud Spell) all won it, and 2003 winner Island Fashion ran second in it. That actually isn't the race that impressed us, though, it was her runner up finish in the Kentucky Oaks where she drew the 13 post, settled back 16 lengths from the front, and rallied strongly into a moderate pace to just miss second to Plum Pretty. Her breeding is a little obscure (Include by a Private Account mare) but it's quite good for 10 furlongs. The question is whether she'll get enough pace to run at, but we think new jockey Robby Albarado is going to be pretty cognizent of this issue, and will have her more like 5-6 lengths off the lead than 15-16 back. If so, look out, because she's got the best closing kick of them all.

6. Inglorious (6-1). If the race were on synthetics she'd be 1-5, as she's 5 for 5 on the plastics, while a her two dirt starts were both losses in Louisiana. But it's worth noting that since being shipped back to Canada, she may have blossomed into a much better horse. She won a prep for the Woodbine Oaks, then won the Oaks, then stretched out to 10 furlongs and took on the Canadien boys in the Queens Plate and won that easily. As a result, she actually has the highest last race GSF, which is a positive expectation bet. Given her breeding is actually fine for the dirt and she didn't run too poorly in her two dirt starts, is it possible she's actually just turned into a good horse.

Pick. This is a fun race with a short field and only one true "toss". By process of elimination, we don't think Royal Delta is as good as the other horses in the field, and think Plum Pretty wants no part of 10 furlongs. As for the remaining three, there isn't a result that would shock us, but wer're going with the horse with the best stretch kick and distance breeding, and think St. John's River outkicks It's Tricky in the stretch while holding off Inglorious.

1. St. John's River 2. Inglorious 3. It's Tricky.

Enjoy the race!

Saratoga Special: Whitney Day Late Pick Four (Updated)

We haven't done anything on Saratoga in a while, and Saturday's the perfect excuse to take a look at the card and revel in the majesty that is August racing in upstate New York. Saturday's card presents a bunch of full fields early on, two Graded 1 stakes races, and a fascinating ungraded turf stakes. And a Pick Four bet with a 50-cent minimum that includes all three stakes races. What do you say we analyze the late Pick Four and put together some tickets?

De La Rose Stakes (Race 8)
Condition: 1 mile on the inner turf for fillies and mares that haven't won a graded stakes on the turf in 2011; $75,000 purse.

There are a slew of interesting horses in this race, but none are more intriguing than shipper Deluxe, who's owned by Juddmonte Farms, by Storm Cat out of the mare Hasili. For those of you not familiar with Hasili's other progeny, here's the list, excluding Raise the Flag, who could only get on the track once:

• Dansili: won 5 of 14 starts, including a Grade 2 in Europe, and ran 3rd in the 2000 BC Mile. He's also become a good sire, siring, amongst others, 2006 Arc winner Rail Link.
• Banks Hill: won 5 of 15 starts, including three Grade 1s, including the 2001 BC Filly & Mare Turf.
• Heat Haze: 7 wins in 14 starts, including two Grade 1s, and finished 4th in the 2003 BC Filly & Mare Turf.
• Intercontinental: 13 wins in 22 starts, including two Grade 1s, one of which was the 2005 BC Filly & Mare Turf.
  
• Cacique: 7 wins in 18 starts, including two Grade 1s.
  
• Champs Elysees: Arguably the least impressive looking of the sextet on the track, he won 6 of 29 starts, but still won 3 Grade 1s.

So to summarize, Hasili has produced 6 graded stakes winners, 5 of which won a total of 12 Grade 1s, and two Breeders Cup races. It's quite the lineage, and in the list of great dams, she's on the short list with Toussad, Urban Sea and Personal Ensign. And this, we think, makes Deluxe a must-use in this start--though she hasn't won a graded stakes yet, she's 3 for 6 lifetime and was a not-bad 2nd to champion Sarafina last spring.

We wouldn't recommend flying solo on Deluxe, though, because there are some other interesting horses in the race. Evading Tempete is well-bred and appears to have been pointed for this off a long layoff. Tapistfly has run well each time this year and has good tactical speed that should play well. And Prize Catch has run a series of sharp races without a win this year, and looks primed for a big effort. If you're looking for a total bomb, La Cloche should close well and had excuses in her last.

Primary horses: Deluxe (9), Evading Tempete (5), Prize Catch (3)
Backup horses: Tapitsfly (8), La Cloche (11)

Test Stakes (Race 9)
Condition: 7 furlongs on the dirt for 3yo fillies, $250,000 purse, Grade I

The two favorites in this race look worth trying to beat. Turbulent Descent hasn't been out of the exacta in her lifetime and has a pair of Grade 1's to her name, but hasn't run particularly fast and may be better on synthetics. Her Smile won the Grade 1 Prioress last out, but looks like a 6 furlong horse, and there's no bigger difference in racing than that between 6 and 7 furlongs. We think both need to be used as backups, but are looking elsewhere for our picks.

First on our list is American Lady, who won't be a huge price (3-1?), but has ran beautifully in all three races and ships from California for Bob Baffert. The horse has tactical speed and appears to be on the improve, and may just be the best horse here. Next in line is Salty Strike, who's turning back after a blah effort in the Mother Goose, and seems well-suited to 1-turn sprints, as her Dogwood and allowance races earlier this year were fabulous. Also interesting is Pomeroy's Pistol, who sports a sharp workout on the heels of just missing in the Prioress. If she's going to be 10-1 and Her Smile will be 5-2, who would you prefer?

Primary horses: American Lady (2), Pomeroys Pistol (7), Salty Strike (9)
Backup horses: Turbulent Descent (6), Her Smile (8)

The Whitney Handicap (Race 10)
Condition: 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for 3yo+ males, $750,000 purse, Grade I

One of the premier dirt races for older horses, everyone is looking at this 11-horse field as evenly matched with few tossouts. We see their point, but disagree, and like fewer horses than most. Tizway and Morning Line are going to get a lot of action, but neither strikes us as a router: Tizway's two best efforts were in 1-turn miles at Belmont, and Morning Line really only has one good race beyond 8 furlongs (the Pennsylvania Derby) to his credit. We're tossing both. We're also going to toss everyone who comes in straight out of the Stephen Foster, which was run painfully slow and won by a rank outsider at 35-1.

That knocks us down to 5 horses, and we're inclined to use them all one way or another. Flat Out ran in that horrible Stephen Foster but came back to win the Suburban and run the fastest Gowanus Speed Figure of the year (a 113). We're not sure we buy it, but can't make a strong argument for tossing him off that race either. Rail Trip is something of a forgotten horse in the handicap division: after starting off his career 8-2-1 in 11 starts, he lost the Hollywood Gold Cup to the forgettable Awesome Gem, then was transferred to Dicky Dutrow's barn, where he ran up the track in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, was put on the shelf for 8 months, then ran a forgettable second to Friend or Foe in an ungraded stakes race in June. While some will look at this and see a horse that's done, we see a horse with tactical speed that should like 9 furlongs and needed a start off the layoff and should move forward. At 12-1, he's quite intriguing.

We're also inclined to give Headache, Rodman and Friend or Foe a shot. Headache has a fairly neat story, having won the Claiming Crown for "the best claiming horses" a year ago and since then winning twice on fast dirt tracks. He's very interesting, especially as a closer in a race with plenty of speed. Friend or Foe strikes us as a little "cheap" (i.e., not enough experience at Grade I races), but is at least in good form. Rodman may not have the stamina for 9 furlongs, but at 20-1, is worth keeping in play. Go deep here, but think outside the box.

Primary horses: Flat Out (1), Rail Trip (7), Headache (8)
Backup horses: Friend or Foe (2), Rodman (9)

A random State-Bred Allowance Crapfest
Condition: 7 furlongs on the dirt, for New York-bred colts 3yo+ who haven't won a race beyond a maiden claiming or starter, for $42,000

Ah, the usual garbage race to end the day at the track. We're not going to pretend that we've looked at this race as thoroughly as the others, but we have a couple of opinions. Bud White won his last by 17, and has to be used. So does Southbeachsandy, who's run a series of strong seconds and turns back a furlong. Wee Freudian hasn't run badly this year and adds blinkers for the not-bad Rick Schosberg. For backups, we'll include 4 useful horses that have a shot but we're less confident of.

Primary horses: Bud White (9), Southbeachsandy (11), Wee Freudian (12)
Backup horses: Cooks Forest (2), Token Sacrifice (5), Green Monster (8), Crea's Law (10)

The Play

The economical way to play the race, we think, is to demand that three of your primary horses wins, allowing you to go to the backup well just once. And for your ticket with your primary horses only, play for a dollar, not 50 cents, to "press" your strongest opinions. That would leave 5 tickets:

$1 Pick Four: 3, 5, 9/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 8, 11/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 9/6, 8/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 9/2, 7, 9/2, 9/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 9/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/2, 5, 8, 10.

We realize this isn't a cheap play--the 5 tickets come to $216. Let's revisit how this goes on Monday. Good luck to all!

UPDATE: Deluxe, sadly has scratched. We say add Miss Keller, who we don't love but did win this race last year, as a saver horse, and move Tapitsfly up to a primary horse, which makes the tickets:

$1 Pick Four: 3, 5, 8/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 10, 11/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 8/6, 8/1, 7, 8/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 8/2, 7, 9/2, 9/9, 11, 12.
$0.50 Pick Four: 3, 5, 8/2, 7, 9/1, 7, 8/2, 5, 8, 10.

7/29 DSRA: The Quick Call

A little pressed for time today, so let's get to a quick analysis of the Quick Call, and overnight stakes for 3 year olds at a mile on the turf. Yes, I know we're a little turf heavy, but that's what the racing gods are giving us. Lonesome Street and Lighthouse Sound look like pace factors only; they're out. Turf Melody has given zero indication that he's going to like the grass, and Alfarabi appears to be Too Damn Slow. Let's look at the remaining four:

1. Our Douglas. A horrible, horrible name, he repeatedly closes well and generally loses. Looks like exotics fodder.

2. Lethal Combination. Also the perpetual bridesmaid, he at least has some tactical speed meaning he'd get first run on Our Douglas.

6. Beau Choix. The morning line favorite based on the big 94 last out GSF, but he looks a little cheap, coming out of a bunch of failed maiden efforts and a minor race on the Preakness undercard.

7. Psychic Income. Closed stoutly in the Jefferon Cup at big odds (why was he a price?), he's getting good at the right time, has nice breeding, and looks to be the most consistent horse in the field. He's our pick.

1st: Psychic Income
2nd: Lethal Combination
3rd: Our Douglas

Mrs. Blog's selection: Lighthouse Sound. "He sucks, but so do your picks."

Yesterday's picks: Perfect Shirl headed an all Canada trifecta (whoops) while pick Bay to Bay never got on track. That's two bad ones in a row for us. Mrs. Blog notes that she would have picked Perfect Shirl had I told her beforehand that the horse was a half to Shakespeare. Ah well.

Results to date:

1st: 5/1-2-0, +$19.00
2nd: 5/1-0-0
3rd: 5/1-0-0
MB: 5/2-0-1 +$1.10

7/28 DSRA: The Lake George Stakes

There are niches in sports, and then there's 3 year old filly turf racing. No preamble, let's get right to this year's Lake George, a $150,000 Grade 2 race at a mile and a sixteenth on the sod.

1. House of Grace. Went off in last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies (talk about niches--2yo gals on the turf?) at 8-1, she ran a fast closing 3rd before getting purchased by Godolphin and taking 7 months off. She came back in an optional claimer where she was outkicked, but has been working out well since then, and stands to improve 2nd off the long layoff.

2. Crescenda. Has never been out of the exacta, but something just doesn't sit right with this gal. Maybe it's the fact she's never been under 9-2 in a race, maybe it's that I've never heard of her trainer, or maybe it's because her breeding is goofy (Bowman's Band out of a Naveus dam?). Has a shot based on her decent Sands Point, but I'm siding against.

3. Khancord Kid. Has speed but has never topped an 81 GSF. Looking elsewhere.

4. Neon Light. Ships in from Dusseldorf after a bang-up 3rd in the German 1000 Guineas, this gal's got interesting breeding (Refuse to Bend was a useful miler, General Assembly's not a bad damsire) and Andreas Wohler is probably the best German trainer. That said, German racing is second-tier European racing, so while it's normally wise to assume that a G3 European shipper is better than a G3 American horse, it's not necessarily true with German horses.

5. Perfect Shirl. One of two horses to ship in from Canada for Roger Attfield, this one looks like the speed horse to set things up for...

6. No Explaining. Has run three times this year with two wins in allowance races and a good third in a minor turf sprint stakes. I really, really like this breeding--Azamour should be a very good turf sire, and Green Desert is an excellent damsire. She appears to have solid tactical speed and should get first run on the closers. Que interesting.

7. Go Ask Alex. Well, she did wire the field in something called the Indiana Distaff Stakes. Since then she's provided nothing but a lot of early speed and a lot of late fading.

8. Strike it Rich. The morning line favorite off three straight wins in wire to wire fashion, she's probably going to have to at least try to sit off the pace, because there are 3 clear front runners to her inside. It's not impossible, but it strikes me as unlikely. Plus she's got the 4-straight-increasing GSF curse against her. Looking elsewhere.

9. Dynazaper. $300,000 purchase that's been pretty disappointing so far, what with 2 wins in 7 starts. But there might be something to like here: she ran well to win the Edgewood two back, then had a wide trip to take then lose the lead in the Regret. She draws an outer post again, but also gets back Julian Leparoux, who rode her to victory in the Edgewood. Hmmm.

10. Exclusive Love. It's raining Canadians!

11. Caminadora. Completely shocked everyone by winning the Regret at 32-1 in her last when she rallied from 18 lengths out to take it for Todd Pletcher, who almost never wins with longshots. Where did that last race come from? Unclear. Looks like a huge bounce candidate.

12. Bay to Bay. Never out of the triple, this Canadian ex-pat has had a pretty good year, with a good 2nd in the Appalachian, a fast win at Arlington, then a nice second to Strike it Rich in the paceless Boiling Springs. Nothing to really criticize here except the outside post.

Selections: Bay to Bay is a pretty deserving choice, but there are a few others that look intriguing as well in a pretty competitive race. House of Grace looks very eligible to improve off the layoff and Dynazaper is probably better than her last race indicates. Neon Light can't be dismissed as the curious new face, and No Explaining has a shot as well. If we were playing a Pick Something, we'd use all five horses and cross our fingers for the longest price. Since we're picking the race outcome, we'll go with Bay to Bay, who's probably the best horse.

1. Bay to Bay 2. Dynazaper 3. House of Grace

Mrs. Blog's Pick: No Explaining. "And I'm not explaining."

Monday's results: Hull was bad and Congor Bay was worse. Hey, everyone's entitled to a bad pick. Congrats to the missus for getting it right with Checklist.

Results to Date: Still on the plus side.

1st: 4/1-2-0, +$21.00
2nd: 4/1-0-0
3rd: 4/1-0-0
MB: 4/2-0-0, +$3.10

7/26 DSRA: Monday's "Feature" Race

The so-called "feature" race on the card--i.e., the best race--usually is the next to last race on the card. The race with the best purse on Monday's card is actually the Evan Shipman, a NY bred stakes race, but it's the 3rd race for...actually, I'm not sure why. But the feature race is a nice little optional claimer/non-winners of 3 (see yesterday's post for the explanation) at 6 furlongs on the dirt. It's a field of 7, and let's get to it.

1. Congor Bay. This horse should be better simply based on his breeding: Speightstown was a champion sprinter (and a well bred one at that) and Pico Teneriffe was a multiple stakes winner on the grass and dirt. His half brother, Marchfield, was Canadian horse of the year in 2008 and 2009. But this guy's never won anything of note and now makes his dirt debut after having 14 starts on the grass and synthetics. He doesn't match up on GSF's, but the dirt breeding and connections (Tommy Albertrani, who's good, and Rajiv Maragh, who's having a nice year) are solid enough that you'd like to think about him a bit more.

2. Endless Circle. He's won 5 of his last 6, and his trainer Rudy Rodriguez is simply on fire this year, winning with 36% of his starts. Still, something just doesn't quite compute here. He was losing against $16,000 claimers in Aqueduct 6 months ago, and now he's a borderline graded stakes winner? To top it off, his GSF's have improved 3 straight times. I don't have the stat handy, but something like 94% of horses off a triple improve regress in the 4th race. I don't like him to buck those odds.

3. Rollers. On his best day he's probably the best horse in the race, what with a 107 GSF in his last race, a 10-4-4-0 record on fast dirt, a win in the Gallant Bob at Philly Park and a 2nd in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector. And he's a "horse for the course": he's got 3 wins and a second in his 4 starts at the Spa. The problem is he hasn't run in over a year, and his prior return from a 9+ month layoff in 2008 was not encouraging--he ran ok, but a non-threatening second in a state-bred race. Shouldn't it be tougher to come back now from a longer layoff, especially because he's older?

4. Checklist. The probable favorite with the Pletcher/Velazquez connections and the huge 104 GSF in his win 3 races ago at Gulfstream. The thing is, that 11 1/2 length romp at Gulfstream looks like the exception, not the rule. I'll give him a pass for prompting the pace in the True North two races back and finishing third behind the good Bribon; I will not give him a pass for a blah 4th at Monmouth against nobody special last time out.

5. Dr. W. A solid enough citizen who's made almost $350,000 mostly in state-bred races, he has zero upside and even on his best day, is no better than Checklist.

6. Hamazing Destiny. This guy's capable of firing a huge effort--he did exactly that in his last race; his race before that was a good win under very similar conditions, and his November '09 romp was also impressive. All three of those races have one thing in common: they were are Churchill Downs. Since we're talking about a race in upstate New York, I'm less interested.

7. Hull. The lone graded stakes winner in the field, he won the Derby Trial last year before running a goofy 4th in the Woody Stephens. I say "goofy" because I remember the race well--I had the trifecta--and his jockey, Mario Mena, had no idea what to do with him, be it press the pace, sit back, whatever. The result was a beaten 4th to the very good Munnings and Kensei. He took the rest of '09 off and came back to run poorly in a synthetic allowance race and worse in the ambitiously placed Churchill Handicap on Derby Day. But this is probably the first sensible spot this guy has run in this year: dirt, one turn, 6 furlongs, fast track, optional claimer...it's a good place to get him back on track. Additionally, he gets back Robby Albarado, who at least is competent in the saddle. And he's been working up an absolute storm, with two bullet workouts. Hmmmm.

Selections: There are enough question marks surrounding Checklist and Rollers that this looks like a good spot to go value hunting. Hull and Congo Bay are the two most obvious spots, both getting fast dirt for either the first time in over a year or ever, respectively. Plus Hull may well appreciate the cutback in distance and class more than anyone else here. For the third slot, I'll go with Checklist, who may fade from the front end but is unlikely to simply drop to DAFL.

1. Hull 2. Congo Bay 3. Checklist

Mrs. Blog's Pick: Checklist. "If you bet Endless Circle that's stupid. All circles are endless."

Yesterday's Results: Pick Followmyfootsteps stalked a moderate pace and took over midstretch to win at 13-1. Our other picks did little or nothing, but a $29 winner is nothing to sneeze at. Hope someone reading this cashed.
Results to date: Followmyfootsteps' win puts us well in the positive for now. But let's not stop now and keep this going.

1st: 3/1-2-0, +$23
2nd: 3/1-0-0
3rd: 3/1-0-0
MB: 3/1-0-0

7/25 DSRA: An Allowance Turf Race

Sundays at Saratoga are great because, well, it's Sunday and you're at the track. But frequently the racing is disappointing. The major stakes races are usually on Saturdays, the ones we find interesting seem to pop up on Fridays, and Sundays often get NY bred stakes races, goofy maiden events, and odd ball stakes like 11 furlongs for fillies on the turf.

The first Sunday is no exception, as the Sanford--the first 2yo colt's stakes race in Saratoga--is the headliner, and the field is fine but not particularly interesting. Let's instead turn to the race before, which is 1 1/16 mile optional claimer on the inner turf. To decipher that for the uninitiated:

• 8 1/2 furlongs is a middle distance for turf races; you'll see horses in the race who run it frequently, stretch out from a sprint, or shorten up from something longer.

• An optional claimer is just that--you have the option to run your horse for a tag if you'd like to. Why? Well, the race is for horses that haven't won more than two races other than a maiden or claiming race or for any horse that wants a $50,000 tag (meaning anyone can buy him before the race with a check for $50,000). This allows horses with better credentials to run against horses with lesser credentials if the owner is willing to risk losing the horse in the race. Not surprisingly, there's only 1 turf horses running for a tag.

• The "inner turf" is just that--the inside track of the two Saratoga turf courses. Lore has it that speed holds up better on the inner turf because the turns are tighter and the stretch is shorter. Experience has taught us that lore is wrong, they're both pretty fair.

We're picking this race today not because the next coming of Kelso is involved, but because it has horses that have three of my favorite angles to play every year at Saratoga.

1. The Overbet Mediocrities. Non-winners of 2 races often means you'll get horses that look okay on paper, but taking a step back, you see that they're 2-for-some large number, and have to question why they can't win a race. We have a few of them here: Uncle Indy is 2-for-18 (and 5-1 on the morning line), Conservative is 2-for-14, Slambino is 3-for-27 (including 12 losses in a row), Rock in Bage is 2-for-17, and favorite Mikoshi is 2-for-14, with 7 other finishes in the money. Can you say hanger?

2. The George Weaver Special. I actually think this guy's underrated everywhere, but at Saratoga, he's a live play every year with turf horses. Today he brings us Peace Wine, who's 10-1 on the morning line.

3. The Former Jumper. I have zero data to back this one up, just anecdotal memories. Every year we get a horse that was a former steeplechase runner, usually trainer by Tommy Voss or Jonathan Sheppard, who becomes a turf runner and wins at Saratoga. I remember this happening, without exaggeration, 10 times at Saratoga and never elsewhere. Here, we have a Voss former jumper in Followmyfootsteps, who now adds good jockey Ramon Dominguez and is 12-1, despite running a good 3rd to Nicanor (Barbaro's baby and not dead brother) in his last.

We'll go with those two horses for the exacta. For the 3 slot, let's try Austintacious, who at least is eligible to improve in his 6th career start.

1st: Followmyfootsteps
2nd: Peace Wine
3rd: Austintacious

Mrs. Blog's Pick: Conservative. "For better or for worse, oh who am I kidding, always for worse, conservatives always win."

Yesterday's Results: We noted yesterday that our picks were to be taken with a grain of salt pending how the race was bet, and lo and behold, Wine Police was bet down to 5-2 and won easily over our choice Soldat. That's now two horses we've picked to win who have come in second.

Results to date: Still winless, but our picks haven't been that bad so far.

1st: 2/0-2-0
2nd: 2/1-0-0
3rd: 2/1-0-0
MB: 2/1-0-0

7/24 Daily Saratoga Race Analysis: Our First Maiden Race

One of the real treats at Saratoga is seeing all the new 2 year olds, as many of the best debut at the Spa every year. There are a lot of aspects to this: seeing the potential new star, seeing new sires with their first crops, seeing what trainers are armed for the fall and (potentially) the classics next year, and seeing who overpaid for a horrible horse.

Without further ado, let's turn to the 7th race on Saturday, a 2 year old maiden race for the boys at 5 1/2 furlongs. We like to look at a few things when analyzing a 2yo maiden: breeding (and an immediate tip of the cap to pedigreequery.com is due), trainer, workouts, and if applicable, prior race(s). A key aspect that we can't comment on in advance is how much a horse is being bet. If a first-time starter is bet down a lot at the Spa, give the horse an extra look, because tips on the backstretch are a thing of lore.

2. Santiva. You have to like sire Giant's Causeway, but the dam, Slide, is nothing special: he's her twelfth offspring, and the first 11 weren't any good.

3. Mythical Truth. Leah Gyramati is known for training New York breds in New York bred races. This horse and race don't fit the profile at all.

1. Biddy. Songandaprayer is a good sire for 2yos, but the dam was unraced and this is her first foal. This guy's first race was neither horrible nor great, but Pletcher wins about 25% of the time with second time starters, so he's clearly eligible to improve.

4. Goodtimehadbyall. I have no clue who trainer Merrill Scherer is. What I do know is that if a horse by Quiet American out of an AP Indy dam only cost $20,000, it must have some real conformation issues. His first two races weren't bad, but query whether he's really going to be a turf horse, which is why he did better on a synthetic surface last out.

5. Cherryzapper. Horses trained by Eric Guillot, the pride of Louisiana Downs, that can't break 50 on the GSF scale generally don't win at Saratoga.

1a. Joe Vann. The first runner out of momma Polish Flower who was unraced but well-bred, this horse sports the usual solid breeding, expensive price tag ($175k) and solid string of workouts you get with a Pletcher first timer at Saratoga. The difficulty is going to be that he's coupled with Biddy in the entries, so if the wagering is around 5-2, is that an endorsement or not?

6. Derivative. I'm disqualifying this guy based on name alone, as either he's named after the financial instruments that nearly wrecked capitalism or sadistic mathematics. Plus he's trained by Wayne Lukas, who never wins anymore with first timers.

7. Soldat. The probable favorite off an excellent debut where at 11-1 he dueled and lost in the mud at Belmont. Did the wet track move him up? Maybe. But McLaughlin horses generally improve second time out, this guy clearly has early speed, and has a race under him. I can't emphasize the importance of that enough: most maiden winners are not first time starters, they're horses that have raced and lost before.

8. Wine Police. First year sire (Speightstown) and first foal from the dam, who was a fair horse in Canada. This one's a clear Watch the Toteboard horse: if Asmussen's horses are bet, they're worth considering. If it's 6-1 or greater, pass.

9. Wascally Rabbit. This guy's got some fairly goofy breeding: a first time sire that nobody particularly cares about (Imperialism, who was 3rd in the 2004 Derby but really a 7f/mile specialist) and a dam with no prior foals out of an obscure sire (Linkage). You have to like the bullet workouts, but Contessa is not known for his success with 2yos or first time starters.

Selections: Soldat is a pretty good looking favorite, and we're not inclined to pick against him. But there may be some value in the slots underneath; neither of the Pletcher horses is jumping off the page with talent/breeding, Goodtimehadbyall is likely to be overbet, and it's tough to warm up to Derivative. For the underneath slot, we'll go with the two outside horses: Wascally Rabbit, who might be primed as a first time starter, and Wine Police, on the theory that Asmussen means business the first weekend of the meet.

1. Soldat 2. Wascally Rabbit 3. Wine Police

Mrs. Blog's Pick: "I like Mythical Truth. It's an oxymoron. Like the Penn Fighting Quakers."

Yesterday's picks: Our concerns about Vineyard Haven's layoff were for naught as he dueled with Flat Bold and held off our pick Half Metal Jacket to win by a length. Congrats to the missus for picking the winner, and not a bad start for us by picking the exacta in reverse, all in the search for a price.

Results to date: We're going to publish how we've done so far with the records of our 1st, 2nd and 3rd place selections, plus the return on investment (ROI) on our winners, to the extent we have any. For those who ask, the reason we're also putting how many picks we've had are for the dates we can't post and/or the pick scratches.

1st: 1/0-1-0, $0.00 ROI
2nd: 1/1-0-0
3rd: 1/0-0-0
MB: 1/1-0-0

7/23 Daily Saratoga Race Analysis: The James Marvin Stakes

Opening day at Saratoga is usually defined by full fields, a chipper audience, Tom Durkin sounding relieved to be out of Elmont for a protracted period of time, and the Schuylerville Stakes for 2 year old fillies. Unfortunately, the field for that race is small and boring.

So let's turn our attention to the best race on the card, the ungraded James Marvin Stakes. A 7-furlong contest for $80,000, the race has drawn an extremely contentious field that would be appropriate in a Grade 3 race. Arguably the best sprinter in America makes his debut here, and several other graded stakes winners of note are present.

Let's analyze them one-by-one. We're not going to do this type of analysis every day, but this field is deep enough that it's merited. For the record, note that our analysis and picks assume a fast, dry track. We're also including a daily pick by Missus Blog, in an effort to see who picks better: someone who follows racing, or someone who just picks names.

1. You and I Forever. Roughly this point two years ago, this guy looked poised to become something good, as he ran a very nice second to Mambo in Seattle in an ungraded stakes races that prepped him for the Travers, and he was a decent wiseguy horse for the race. Since then, he's a craptacular 2-for-12 with his wins both coming in Florida. Since popping an upset in the Gulfstream Park Cap in January (at 14-1), he's run a pair of horrible mile races, and now cuts back to 7 furlongs. Potential's there, but he doesn't appear to be in good enough form to take this.

2. Cool Coal Man. This guy's dangerous if he gets a soft pace because most of his wins have been when he's stolen a lead or just sat off a tepid pace and had something left for the stretch. As we'll see in a moment, that's highly unlikely here.

3. Half Metal Jacket. Discounted because the name is stupid and he's trained by Sydney Dutrow, the Fredo Corleone of the Dutrow family. But this guy might have a chance actually. Toss his Maryland Sprint race, this guy clearly isn't at his best at 6 furlongs (and besides, he broke poorly), but he's never out of the exacta at 7 furlongs. His running style (stalker/closer) is well suited to a race with a solid pace. And he should be a fair price (10-1 on morning line).

4. Vineyard Haven. The Big Hoss. Outside of a race in Dubai, he's never been out of hte money, runs well at Saratoga, and loves the distance. The two biggest negatives are that he hasn't been out in a while and that he might get fried on the front. But his King's Bishop last year put that worry to rest: he returned there off a six-month layoff, contested a hot pace, and finished second on disqualification. Here's the biggest negative: they're clearly using this as a prep race for the Forego at the end of the meet. Is it possible he's not fully tuned for the spot?

5. Discreet Treasure. From the extremely productive mare Pretty Discreet (his siblings include phenom Discreet Cat, the good Discreetly Mine, and the useful Pretty Wild), he makes Vineyard Haven's layoff seem short: he was last seen on the track on July 3, 2009, trained by Stanley Hough. He's now in the barn of the not bad Bruce Brown--who excels with layoff horses and new horses--and is a stalker in a race with a lot of early speed. He actually owns the best GSF in the race (a 105 in the Westchester last year) and really, his only drawback is seasoning. And his price: he's 10-1 on the morning line, but we think he'll be around 4-1 come post time. That's a short price to take on a horse that hasn't run in 13 months against a stout field.

6. Friesan Fire. If the name sounds familiar, it's because he was the favorite in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Since finishing in 18th at Churchill, he's done a whole lot of nothing: winning an ungraded race in Louisiana in January and losing badly to luminaries such as Glamour Guy, Stonehouse and Enriched. Pass.

7. Le Grand Cru. Pure pace factor that switched to Todd Pletcher in his last race and got worse. That's not a good sign.

8. Flat Bold. Tommy Albertrani, who we like, has turned this guy into a one-turn speedster, which should ensure that he'll get his name called out early. But there's a good amount of early foot in the race that's better than him, and he couldn't beat Half Metal Jacket last time out. The cutback in distance might help, but it looks like he needs an easier spot.

9. Atoned. Switches off of Todd Pletcher to Neil Howard, who is 0-for-12 with barn switches over the last two years. Next.

10. Silver Edition. Not to be a slave to Gowanus Speed Figures, but this guy hasn't topped 90 in over a year. Don't see it happening here.

Selections. To state the obvious, it all depends on how cranked up for the race Vineyard Haven is. If he's raring to go, he's the best horse by a lot here--he's arguably the best sprinter in America. But a long layoff, tough speed picture and some concerns that his connections just want to get a race into him leave us looking for something else, and that's Half Metal Jacket, who offers good value at a fair price. Discreet Treasure could win or be up the track. To show that we waffle with the best of them, let's put him in the 3 slot.

1. Half Metal Jacket
2. Vineyard Haven
3. Discreet Treasure

Missus Blog's Pick : Vineyard Haven, because she loves Martha's Vineyard.

New Feature: The Daily Saratoga Race Analysis

For about a month, we (mainly Teddy) entertained at least 6 people with daily commentary, insight and wit concerning a sport in it's ascendancy in America: international soccer. 20,000 words and some heady predictions later and it's safe to say that the Gazette actually provided real fussball content for a long while.

In a similar vein, we (mainly Angelo) are going to provide quasi-regular coverage of a sport in decline: horse racing. No, I'm not about to start griping as nauseum about detention barns, NYRA's insolvency and advance deposit wagering disputes. Instead, let's turn our attention to the Shangri-La of thoroughbred racing: the 2010 Saratoga meet.

The premier racing meet in America, once upon a time Saratoga was 24 days of racing confined to August while the rich relaxed in their northern New York getaways. Fast-forward to 2010, and the meet is 40 days, starts in late July and ends on Labor Day, and its headline story for the meet is the opening of a hamburger stand. This still doesn't change that it's a picturesque location with history around every corner, some of the best racing in America, and is fun to watch and go to. Simply stated, if you don't like Saratoga racing, you don't like summer.

We're not going to blog the entire meet and every race because (1) even I don't care that much, and (2) I have a paying job. But we're going to try to examine and analyze a race a day, often the day's featured race, with the idea of showing that there's more to the sport than the Triple Crown. For example, Saratoga is where some of the best two year olds in America make their debuts, often to some fanfare. There are key races in the older horse, filly and mare and turf divisions. All of them should get attention, not just the Travers. We're going to try to do that, as well as pick a couple of winners. For the sake of accountability, we'll keep track of how we do.

I'm kind of excited. Let's see if everyone can learn something about the sport in the process. For now, let's whet everyone's appetite with a classic replay of a race from two years ago.

Travers Stakes Preview

Quick: name the oldest graded stakes race in America. It's not the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont, or the Santa Anita Derby. It's the Travers, also known as the Mid-Summer Derby, run at a mile and a quarter (same distance as the Kentucky Derby) at beautiful Saratoga Race Track in upstate New York, and it's this Saturday. To the surprise of nobody in racing, Derby-Preakness winner Big Brown is sitting this race out. The connections are using as their excuse that the Haskell took a lot out of him, but even more to the point, there's no upside in him running. He's already beaten almost every 3 year old of consequence; why risk looking bad by losing to a bunch of them in the Travers? Instead, he's going to a ready-made grass race and will then go to the Breeders Cup Classic.

This doesn't mean the Travers stinks; to the contrary, it's a fascinating betting race with 12 entries who have had various levels of success this year, and very few of which have run all that quickly. Let's break them down from 12 to 1. Some of these names will be familiar from the Triple Crown Trail, others, not so much.

Thanks But No Thanks

12. Tizbig. Trained by Hall of Famer Allen Jerkens, who knows how to get a longshot into the winner's circle, he's the opposite of a conservatively managed horse, as he ran 2nd on Sunday. Yes, earlier this week. He looks like cheap speed that will ensure a quick pace and nothing more.

11. Cool Coal Man. Nick Zito still keeps telling us this horse is good, despite him having done absolutely nothing of merit since March. I'm sure he's a lovely animal and I'd be privileged to own and pet him, but at some point you need to show improvement. If anything, he's regressed.

10. Tres Borrachos. This horse's name is Spanish for 'three drunks'. I have just given you all of his good qualities.

9. Court Vision. This colt can been called a lot of things fairly accurately, none of them flattering: money-burner, cocktease, hanger, grinder, loser, overhyped, bust. Now he draws post 12 and has to move back from grass to dirt while trying to shed all of those labels. I would not bite.

Don't Let History Fool You

8. Da'Tara. Hey the Belmont winner! Yes. He followed that up by running dead last in the Jim Dandy, the prep race for this. The wiseguy circuit will try to tell you how Albert the Great rebounded off a bad Jim Dandy to run 2nd in the Travers in 2000 when the pace scenario was better. True. The problem is I don't think the pace scenario will be any better here, thanks to Tizbig. After 6 furlongs of being pressed, I look for him to start wilting.

7. Macho Again. As every telecaster on ESPN, TVG and all racing shows will tell you, the last three winners of the Jim Dandy have won the Travers. The streak stops here. His last race wasn't awful, but he was staggering a bit at the end, and would have been caught by Pyro had they run another 50 feet. That race smacks of the type of effort from which an overachiever regresses.

The Odd Ducks

6. Harlem Rocker. Hyped by everyone after winning the Withers and beating quick sprinter J Be K, he skipped the Preakness to point for the Canadian Triple Crown, whereupon he promptly flopped, albeit on a synthetic track. He came back and won his last on a regular dirt track, which you would think would make him competitive, except that he ran it painfully slowly. It's also worth noting historically that multiple horses from Canadian Triple Crown races have tried the Grade 1's in the US and failed miserably: Awesome Again did little until he was a 4 year old, and Archer's Bay, Wando and Wild Desert are cautionary tales. While I'm remiss to knock off a horse simply based on the history of his countrymen, he'll be around 4-1 while not being all that fast and having history against him. Look elsewhere.

5. Colonel John. We'll refer you back to our articles here and here where we note that this guy is a synthetic track freak and we have no idea how he'll do on a dirt track. Four months later, nothing has changed. His Derby effort was a rough trip that showed nothing one way or the other, and his last race was an oddball third on a synthetic surface. So we still have no idea how he'll do in a fair race on the dirt. You want to take 9-2 on that when he hasn't hit a triple digit Gowanus Speed Figure? Didn't think so.

The Price Plays

4. Amped. Hmmm. This guy's going to be the longest shot on the board, but hear me out on why he could hit the board at 40-1. Many criticize Nick Zito for sending in horses that have no shot to do anything, but the last two times he received that criticism, Da'Tara won the Belmont and Coal Play just lost the Haskell. He knows there's going to be an honest pace here, hurting one of his horses (Da'Tara). He probably knows that Coal Man is a plodder. So why not take a shot with a horse that actually can close a little and will get pace to run at? I'm not endorsing him for the win spot, just for underneath in exotics.

3. Tale of Ekati. Yeah yeah, he's almost as bad a tease as Court Vision. Well, not quite: he did win a Grade 1 this year in the Wood. He exits a puzzling Jim Dandy where he didn't finish close to the winners but made a strong middle move that got him nowhere fast. While the move meant little in terms of the race itself, it's the kind of move that indicates he may move forward in his next effort. He should sit a decent trip here, and he's one to use at a fair price underneath.

The Prime Contenders

2. Pyro. For better or for worse, after Big Brown, he's been the second-best 3yo colt this year. He did win a pair of prep races for the Derby, and won his comeback race in the Northern Dancer (albeit over nobody) and ran a creditable second to Macho Again in the Jim Dandy. And every indication is that he'll improve on that race and with the extra furlong. So why are we picking him to finish behind...

1. Mambo In Seattle? Price aside, it's a simple upside calculation. I firmly believe we've seen what Pyro can do. I don't think we've seen this horse's best yet by far. Perfectly bred, he's never been out of the exacta on a dirt track, and comes in from expert connections in Neil Howard. He ran faster than Pyro on Jim Dandy day in the Henry Walton, and it's typical for Howard horses to blossom in late summer/fall. The Grasshopper comparisons to last year's runner up aren't great actually--this is going to be a better horse than Grasshopper, who's done little this year to backup his 2nd in the Travers. Look for this guy to take a big step forward today, and make himself not only a fun prospect for the fall season, but also the best 4yo come next season.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the race! If you're checking out the entire card, give looks to Porte Bonheur in the Victory Ride, Operation Red Dawn in the Bernard Baruch, and I'm So Lucky in the King's Bishop.

Fantastic Horse Names

Every owner has his or her own method of naming a racehorse. Some go simple by going derivative of the horses' parents names. (example: Cat Thief's parents were Storm Cat and Train Robbery). Some shoot for a consistent theme, like the late Allen Paulson's penchant for naming horses after navigational beacons for airplanes (Ajina, Cigar). Some are self-aggrandizing and self-promotions, like Fusao Sekiguchi's Fusaichi Pegasus or any number of Dubai horses. And others ate named for specific places, events or things near and dear to the owner's heart, like Barbaro and Big Brown.

Another type of name is the "current event" name. Occasionally this yields a neat name for a horse, and we've seen a pair of those in Saratoga: namely, the Eliot Spitzer-themed Lov Guv and Ninth Client. Fantastic. But the best part isn't that these names exist. The owner of theses steeds isn't IEAH Stables (Big Brown's connections), a bunch of disgruntled Wall Streeters, or some wiseass from Brooklyn, it's...




Marylou Whitney! Yes, the fabled socialite, philanthropist and Dame of Saratoga. We had no idea that she had such hatred for our ex-Gov that she'd blatantly name her colts after his torrid affairs. We applaud this type of naming, and hope that she continues to annoy those that have wronged her.

Tom Durkin's July

Tom Durkin, NYRA's veteran racetrack announcer, is one of the best in the business, with his professionalism only matched by California stalwart Trevor Denman and New Jersey/Florida sensation Larry Collmus. While Durkin gets credit and accolades for having called the Breeders Cup for 20+ years and for being the voice of the Derby from 2001 on, few could argue that he had a better month than July 2008. Consider his call of an ordinary maiden race on the Fourth of July:



Not to keep his merriness limited to Belmont, he's also brought it to Saratoga for maiden winner Arrrrr.



Has he hit the proverbial "I'm Keith Hernandez" stage of his storied career, or has he started drinking on the job? I'm inclined to think he's probably just having fun.