2011 Breeders Cup Preview Part I: The Year in Racing to Date

Churchill Downs, home of the 2011 Breeders Cup

For all the kvetching about racing getting no attention and the sport having no stars, recent years have seen a lot of memorable horses and dominant story lines, many of which have crossed into the mainstream.  Let's take a look back at the last 8 years at what were racing's memes:

• 2003: Empire Maker gets a ton of hype and buildup for the Derby as the Super Horse, but it's Funny Cide that emerges and becomes the People's Horse.

• 2004: Smarty Jones' three year old campaign lands him on the cover of SI.  If you're a little more interested in racing, you know that this is the year Ghostzapper ran lights out and establsihed himself as one of the best horses in the last 25 years.

• 2005: Afleet Alex and Alex's Lemonade Stand.

• 2006: Barbaro, Barbaro, Barbaro....

• 2007: In hindsight, there was no dominant horse or story line this year.  This was a stellar crop of three year olds (Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Discreet Cat), and Lawyer Ron turned out to be a good older horse, but nobody really dominated the scene.  Rags to Riches' Belmont was a deal, but for about 2 days.

• 2008: Big Brown, Curlin, Zenyatta's emergence, and (sadly) Eight Belles.

• 2009: Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.

• 2010: Zenyatta.

So now 2011 rolls around and the dominant story line is....well, not much.  It's been a fairly benign year in racing, mainly because the horses have been so inconsistent.  To wit:

• Three different horses won the Triple Crown races, and as we noted in June, this was the second most unpredictable TC series in the last 50 years.

• No three year old has won more than one Grade 1 race all year.  Last year Lookin at Lucky was the champion 2 year old and won the Preakness and Haskell, so you knew he was at least a nice enough horse.  The best 3yo this year has been... I dunno, Stay Thirsty?

• The older male horses have been equally uninteresting.  The leader in the clubhouse for the Older Male Eclipse is Tizway based on winning the Met Mile and Whitney, which were on Memorial Day and the first week of August.  You're not going to build any momentum on two wins in 5 months.  Next in line is Flat Out, who's lost to Tizway and a filly.  California has produced absolutely no horses of interest.  The most consistent male performers  have been Acclamation and Cape Blanco, who (a) ran on the turf, and (b) are now injured.

• The three year old filly crop has been replete with decent horses who keep beating each other.  All of Plum Pretty, It's Tricky, Zazu and Royal Delta appear to be nice horses, but none is a standout.

• The two horses that would have had some cache from last year's Breeders Cup, Goldikova and Uncle Mo, have had years out of the limelight.  Goldikova's absence from US racing isn't surprising--she's a European filly after all, and she's had a decent year, just far removed from US racing.  It's Uncle Mo whose absence has been felt.  He won an ungraded stakes race in Florida in March, lost the Wood Memorial when stopping badly, and missed the Derby with an alleged illness.  He re-emerged in a sprint race on the Travers undercard, where he lost by a nostril to the not-bad Caleb's Posse, then throttled Jackson Bend and Jersey Town in the 1-mile Kelso two weeks ago.  This makes him interesting for the Breeders Cup, but it hasn't been the Year of Uncle Mo, to say the least.

*          *          *

By far the most interesting horse this year has been the 4-year old filly Havre de Grace.  She emerged in the second half of last year, with narrow losses to division winner Blind Luck in the Delaware Oaks and Alabama, turned the tables on Blind Luck in the Cotillion, then ran a good third in the BC Distaff behind Unrivaled Belle and...Blind Luck.  She figured to be one of the top older females this year and hasn't disappointed.  She won a pair of graded stakes at Oaklawn--including the Grade 1 Apple Blossom--beating Blind Luck and the fast filly Switch in the process.  After winning a meaningless Delaware race, she took on Blind Luck once again in the Delaware Handicap.  The result was the best race of the season:

After posting a 106 Gowanus Speed Figure in the Delaware, Havre de Grace's connections looked at the unexciting older crop of horses and decided to take a chance by running her in the Woodward, the 9 furlong race for older horses at Saratoga Labor Day weekend, the same one Rachel Alexandra won in 2009.  Their logic was straightforward: if they weren't meeting Blind Luck, there was nothing to gain by beating other females, and the male horses weren't exactly formidable.  Sent off as the favorite, she rewarded her connections with a very strong win:

Knowing the Horse of the Year game isn't won in September, her connections wisely then sent her to the Beldame--1 1/8 miles for fillies and mares at Belmont--where she romped over pro tem 3yo filly division leader Royal Delta.  With Blind Luck out for the season with an injury, it looks like she'll go to the Breeders Cup Classic and take on the boys once again.  And in this race, she'll meet an interesting crop of horses: the aforementioned Uncle Mo, Stay Thirsty, Tizway and Flat Out, international star So You Think, and some intriguing prospects like To Honor and Serve.  If she wins the Classic, she'll be Horse of the Year in a landslide.

*          *          *

So it this the year of Havre de Grace?  Maybe.  To date she's received no attention from the non-racing press because...well, we're not sure exactly why.  She's a large and beautiful horse who's neat to watch, she does not look outmatched by colts.  Her trainer is Larry Jones of Eight Belles fame, who's very good with the media and is always sporting cowboy attire.  Her owner is Rick Porter, who some would dub insufferable, but we see as refreshing, as his barn always has fast horses entered aggressively (e.g., Eight Belles in the Derby) that run well.  And she hasn't emerged out of nowhere, because everyone in racing knew that the players in the older ladies division this year were her and Blind Luck.

Maybe it's just fatigue from the recent run of great fillies.  As we noted last year, we've had an amazing stretch of exciting fillies.  Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta were 1-2 in HOTY voting in 2009, Zenyatta won last year, and Goldikova has been omnipresent since 2008.  Havre de Grace, while good, has none of the flamboyance of these three horses.  She isn't a steamroller on the front end like Rachel Alexandra.  She isn't an explosive closer that's always exciting like Zenyatta.  And she doesn't have the amazing versatility of Goldikova.  She's just a strong, honest, fast filly.  Given that she's accomplishing things that these other three gals have accomplished so recently, maybe we're just taking her for granted.

What that gives us is another Breeders Cup Saturday that's laden with intrigue.  We'll get to some of the other storylines in the coming days, but the big one is what happens with Havre de Grace.  If she runs in the Classic and wins, she'll have quietly put together a fabulous year for a filly, one worthy of Horse of the Year, and one that should be remembered along with recent great fillies.  And if she loses...well, it's a veritable mess, because there are a lot of holes in all the other contenders for Horse of the Year and the Classic itself.

The 2010 Eclipse Awards

We don't get an Eclipse Award ballot...but we should! Okay, we shouldn't. But we see no reason not to wrap up a season of horse racing by putting forth who we think should get the Eclipse Awards in the major horse racing categories. We're going to fill these out 1-2-3, because in some cases, it's worth tipping the cap to those who had good years but not spectacular years. Let's get to it.

2yo fillies

With the 2 year olds, it's tough to not vote for the Breeders Cup winner unless it's a bomb, a la Vale of York last year. Awesome Feather was undefeated and beat all the opposition of note in the Breeders Cup, so she wins here easily over R Heat Lightning, who ran second in the JF Fillies. We'll give the third slot to More Than Real, who won the JF Turf.

1. Awesome Feather 2. R Heat Lightning 3. More Than Real

2yo colts

If Uncle Mo doesn't win this unanimously, the defecting voters should be publicly humiliated. Boys at Toscanova won the Hopeful and ran second in the Juvenile and is an easy silver medalist. For third place, we'll go with To Honor and Serve, who's the second choice in Derby future books now off his wins in the Nashua and Remsen.

1. Uncle Mo 2. Boys at Toscanova 3. To Honor and Serve

3yo colts

Lookin at Lucky won the Preakness, Haskell, Rebel and Indiana Derby, and really only ran one bad race all year (the Kentucky Derby, over a sloppy mess). While we think Eskendereya was the most talented horse, LAL was the most accomplished and takes this easily.

Who else finishes out the ballot? We can't really go with Eskendereya who didn't race after Easter. Super Saver and Drosselmeyer look like 1-race flukes and are out. So let's go a little out of the box. Paddy O'Prado ran a bang-up 3rd in the Derby and won the Secretariat and was probably the best turfer of this class. For the 3rd slot, we'll go with Sidney's Candy, who quietly won five graded stakes this year but flopped against top class in the BC Mile and Derby.

1. Lookin at Lucky 2. Paddy O'Prado 3. Sidney's Candy

3yo fillies

This was neck and neck between Havre de Grace and Blind Luck all year but Blind Luck's place finish in the Distaff clinched her the title over a pretty good foe. We'll give the third slot to Switch, who came close to Zenyatta, was an excellent 2nd in the Filly Sprint and just won impressively in the La Brea last Sunday.

1. Blind Luck 2. Havre de Grace 3. Switch

Older Males

Blame won the Classic and wins this easily. Quality Road won the Donn, Met Mile and Woodward and was the best horse in the country through Memorial Day, so he gets second place. There are zero interesting options for third place, as Richard's Kid's two Grade 1 wins in California bore us to tears, Battle Plan retired too early, Haynesfield and Dakota Phone each won exactly one race of consequence and Gio Ponti was 2-for-7 this year. I guess Richard's Kid? Sure.

1. Blame 2. Quality Road 3. Richard's Kid

Older Females

What's amazing is that Rachel Alexandra isn't even one of the 5 horses we'd consider for a slot here. The top slot is easy and Unrivaled Belle tops Life at Ten in the balloting for winning the biggest race of the year. But we want to include on our ballot the horse with the second most G1 wins in America this year: Proviso. We'll talk more about her in a few minutes.

1. Zenyatta 2. Proviso 3. Unrivaled Belle

Turf Males

Blech. Gio Ponti was 2-for-7 this year with his best race probably being his 2nd place finish in the Mile. Winchester won 2 Grade 1's this year but both were at Belmont over middling competition. Dangerous Midge did win the Turf, but that's all he won this year. Paddy O'Prado would have been interesting had he even beaten older horses, but he never did. We were tempting to register a protest vote for Turf Sprint winner Chamberlain Bridge, and then remembered he wasn't very good.

When in doubt, take the Breeders Cup winner. That's what we're going with.

1. Dangerous Midge 2. Gio Ponti 3. Winchester

Turf Females

Shared Account gets the third slot here based off her win in the F&M Turf. The debate for the top spot is between Proviso's body of work--4 Grade 1 wins, including one over Shared Account--versus Goldikova's lone G1 win in the Mile. We're not taking into account her prior accomplishments because Eclipse Awards are only based off what a horse did this year. But still, Goldikova won four Grade 1's across the globe this year, won the Mile handily, and beat Proviso in the process. In fact, it wasn't close. Good enough.

1. Goldikova 2. Proviso 3. Shared Account

Female Sprinter

Dubai Majesty's win in the Filly Sprint gives her this easily. We can't find much better than the aforementioned Switch or 3yo filly Champagne d'Oro, who won the Acorn and Test, so we'll put them in the other slots.

1. Dubai Majesty 2. Switch 3. Champagne d'Oro

Male Sprinter

The question is Majesticperfection versus Big Drama. The former beat Big Drama in the Vanderbilt before retiring with an injury. Since then, Big Drama ran a bang-up second in the Forego--at 7 furlongs, not 6--and won the BC Sprint easily. On the rest of the year, he won the Smile Sprint and an ungraded race, whereas Majesticperfection won...well, a race in Iowa, a maiden race, and two allowance races. In other words, not much.

Can you justify taking Big Drama when he lost their only heads up battle? If the campaigns and accomplishments are roughly equivalent, absolutely not. But we don't think they are and think that the balance of Big Drama's year offsets the loss in the Vanderbilt. And we'll give him the vote. For 3rd, Discreetly Mine was the best 3yo sprinter this year by a lot.

1. Big Drama 2. Majesticperfection 3. Discreetly Mine

Trainer

Is there any way Todd Pletcher loses this after winning the Derby, 2 Breeders Cup races and a total of 14 Grade 1's? Didn't think so. For the place slot, many would go with John Shirreffs for his work on Zenyatta and Harmonious, but John Sadler won seven Grade 1's with different horses. That's pretty damn good.

1. Todd Pletcher 2. John Sadler 3. John Shirreffs

Jockey

The rider with the most G1's is Mike Smith (12), but he got 75% of them on Proviso and Zenyatta. Not interested. By contrast, John Velazquez and Garrett Gomez rode a bunch of different horses to G1 victories and were the best big-money riders in the nation. We also like Joel Rosario winning 10 Grade 1's on 10 different horses--very impressive.

1. Garrett Gomez 2. John Velazquez 3. Joel Rosario

Owner

The Mosses will win this in a romp for keeping Zenyatta in training this year. The owner that probably had the best year was WinStar, which won the Derby and Belmont, but we're fine with honoring the owners that gave racing the best press. For the third slot...sheesh, I dunno, how about Mike Pegram?

1. Jerry & Ann Moss 2. WinStar Farms 3. Mike Pegram

Horse of the Year

The great debate: Zenyatta versus Blame. Okay, last year's was a better debate between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta because the two never faced. We think this year's debate is really easy: how can you not vote for Blame when he beat Zenyatta in their head-to-head matchup? Here are the arguments for Zenyatta, none of which hold water:

• Her career accomplishments. Completely irrelevant. It's Horse of the Year, not Horse of the Career.

• Her publicity to racing. So? It's a question of who accomplished more this year, not who had racing in the press more. If fame and publicity were a factor, Barbaro would have won in 2006 by a mile. He wasn't even close.

• She came close in the Classic. Indeed, I think many of us appreciated Zenyatta more after the Classic even though she lost. But she still lost to Blame. If she had lost to Etched, this would be a different story on a couple of levels.

• She had a better year. Essentially, this is the Big Drama/Majesticperfection argument all over again. The argument is that Zenyatta had a better year because she won 5 Grade 1's to Blame's 3, and won at 4 racetracks to his 3. (This completely ignores the fact that 3 of her races were in Southern California...but whatever.) But let's break this down a little, because this is really the question. Zenyatta won 5 races against fillies and mares only. Blame won 4 races and 3 Grade 1's in open company. He beat top caliber horses, such as Quality Road, Battle Plan, Fly Down, Lookin at Lucky and Haynesfield. The best horse that Zenyatta beat in her non-Classic races was either Switch or St. Trinians, either of which would have been 50-1 in the Classic and a non-factor.

To everyone who thinks that it's a blemish on her resume for Zenyatta to have never won HOTY, it's not. Ruffian never won it. Personal Ensign never won it. Goldikova, who's the best filly to race stateside in a decade, never won it. It happens. And Blame should be the winner.

1. Blame 2. Zenyatta 3. Quality Road

Breeders Cup Post-Mortem

Eleven thoughts on Friday's and Saturday's 14 races and the events surrounding them.

1. The quiet hit of the weekend: the 50 cent minimums on trifectas, Pick 3's and Pick 4's. For the first time, Churchill Downs and the Breeders Cup lowered the minimums on bets other than the superfecta, and it was a resounding success. In the Classic alone, the handle was up $2.3 million on the trifecta, $250k on the Pick 3, and $750k on the Pick 4. The bet allows players with smaller bankrolls to take stabs and make more combinations, which can only increase their rate of return. And it helps avoid the tax man by lowering the amount you cash on a ticket, which is the trigger for getting a W-2. Can we make these permanent?

2. Six Eclipse Awards were settled for sure: Uncle Mo (2yo colt), Awesome Feather (2yo filly), Blind Luck (3yo filly), Lookin at Lucky (3yo colt), Zenyatta (older female) and Blame (older male) will all be unanimous winners or pretty close to it. Dubai Majesty is probably going to win the Filly Sprinter award off of her BC win, but it won't be unanimous.

3. It's the next 4 Eclipse where things get interesting. Big Drama won the BC Sprint but still may lose the male sprinter award to Majesticperfection, who thumped him in August before getting hurt. Proviso had the best year of any turf filly in the States, but just lost to Goldikova. Can one win in the US trump 4 Grade 1's when you beat the other horse in question. The male turf division is a complete mess, as Dangerous Midge won the Turf but it was not only his only win in the US this year, it was his only Grade 1 win period. Winchester won two Grade 1's but lost to Dangerous Midge. Gio Ponti won two Grade 1's but was 2-for-7 overall. Can Paddy
O'Prado (who ran in the Classic) back into the award despite losing to Winchester in his only start against older males on the turf? (We'll get to Horse of the Year in a minute.)

4. The weekend was full of wonderful performances, but the first jaw dropper was Uncle Mo's win in the Juvenile, which was even more impressive than his 4 1/2 length margin. The horse was never asked for run until the top of the stretch, and when asked, he opened up willingly. We have our doubts that he'll get a mile and a quarter with that breeding, but he's truly something special and one of the best 2yos we've seen in a while.

5. The next jaw dropped came 40 minutes later with Goldikova's scintillating win in the Mile for her third straight title. The highlight of the race was the replay watching her groom (who came over from France with her), cheering and sprinting down the dirt track as she flew down the stretch cheering her on. One of the great moments of fandom we've seen in the sport.

6. If anyone had Dakota Phone in the Dirt Mile without hitting the "all" button, please email us and let us know how you came up with a horse that was 1 for his last 19 and finished DAFL in his only dirt start in the last 2 years. He was the second horse we tossed in that race after the now-retired Mine That Bird.

7. We can't let the day go by without heaping on the criticism of John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher for not scratching Life at Ten before the Distaff on Friday night. Both knew the horse wasn't 100% or acting right, yet let her run, in effect, setting fire to several million dollars that were bet on her. Both should be fined and suspended.

8. We were wondering why Dangerous Midge's owner wasn't at the track yesterday, but think we've found the answer: http://tinyurl.com/25boe2r.

9. We've been high on Blame all year, and were happy to see him run well yesterday. The focus of the Classic is going to be on Zenyatta's loss rather than his win—that's just the nature of what happens when a strong favorite who everyone likes loses. (Birdstone over Smarty Jones in the 2004 Belmont is a recent example.) And it's a bit unfair, because he's legitimately a very good horse and a worthy winner.

10. What can you say about a horse that starts the race 16 1/4 lengths behind the leaders, is 15 lengths out with a half mile to go, and loses by a head? Whose move on the turn and down the stretch was the best losing effort since Easy Goer's in the 1989 Classic? That it's amazing that this has never happened before. Dead closers are always at the mercy of the pace, traffic, tiring horses, dirt getting thrown in their face, and track biases. Until yesterday, Zenyatta overcame all of that every single time. And yesterday she fell a neck short. We don't think she lost much in defeat at all, it reminded us how difficult it is to win championship races over and over again and just appreciate what she did for over 3 years.

11. So who's Horse of the Year? On paper it's easy: Blame won the Stephen Foster, Whitney and BC Classic, beating every horse of consequence in the process. But we know that Zenyatta is going to get a lot of votes, some as a makeup for last year, some as a career achievement award, and some because people thought she was the best horse yesterday. Hell, people like Joe Drape said that Zenyatta was HOTY no matter what happened yesterday. We completely disagree—Blame won it fair and square on the track—but it'll be fun to see who actually gets the hardware in February.

And this concludes our horse racing coverage until March, when we'll jump back in and see if Uncle Mo is still the leading horse on the Kentucky Derby Trail.

Breeders Cup Preview Part V: The Classic

Assuming the entire field actually goes to post, this is shaping up as one of the best Classics in recent memory. You have 2 Eclipse Award winners. You have the best horse from this year's class and the two best horses from last year's class. You have a top turf horse trying the dirt. You have a scrappy New York bred. You even have an intriguing Asian horse.

So the Classic merits a little more attention than the synopsis we gave the other 13 races. Let's go back to our traditional countdown from bottom to top.

Why Are You Doing This?

12. Pleasant Prince. The highlights of his career have been wins in the Oklahoma Derby and the Ohio Derby. His biggest mistake to date was not trying to complete the trifecta by running in the Osaka Derby. Entering the starting gate on Saturday is going to be his second biggest mistake.

11. First Dude. We'll save our invective about the Palins for another time and simply note that he's still 1-for-11 in his career and is early speed in a race filled with...early speed. See you next year.

Good Horse, Wrong Race

10. Paddy O'Prado. They're going to do a rain dance at Dale Romans' barn, because this horse's only good effort on the dirt was his 3rd in the Derby when the track was a soupy mess. Sadly, Saturday's forecast is only for freezing cold weather. He's developed into a very reliable turf horse, and would be competitive in the Turf, so their next step is to...go back to the dirt and take on Zenyatta? Are they gluttons for punishment?

9. Musket Man. He's a dirt performer, but has failed to indicate that he can stay more than 9 furlongs. Heck, he only has one win at more than 1 1/16 miles: the Illinois Derby last year against nobody of note. Didn't they invent the Dirt Mile for horses like this?

Too Much Early Speed

8. Haynesfield. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, 9-for-13, early speed, underrated. Whatever. He's never run outside of New York (let alone won) and is a need the lead horse in a race where there are at least 3 other who want to be on the front end. Just don't see it.

7. Quality Road. We're less worried about the stamina issues than others--his two races at 10 furlongs that he lost both had excuses (slop, layoffs, etc.) and weren't bad. We're more concerned that he's going to get caught up in the early pace with Haynesfield and First Dude, especially from the inside post, and have nothing left at the top of the stretch. Also, we're completely unconvinced that this guy is in as good form as he was this winter/spring. Since winning the Met Mile, he lost the Whitney when everything went his way and had a completely meaningless (and unimpressive) win in the Woodward against horrible horses. And now comes in off a 2-month layoff. For this, you want 5-1?

Real Contenders We Don't Like

6. Espoir City. The history of Japanese shippers into this race is unimpressive; Casino Drive, Taiki Blizzard and Personal Rush were three who failed to do anything. But this guy at least won the Japan Cup last year, so he has class on his side. We're more concerned with the lack of experience at 10 furlongs, because he's never run the distance. The horses that have won the Classic without ever running at the distance are Ghostzapper, Saint Liam, and Zenyatta--two of the three best horses this century, and a guy who was a solid performer in a weak year. If he's a Hall of Fame talent, we'll happily concede that we're wrong. But we doubt it.

5. Lookin at Lucky. We actually admire this guy for being consistent and usually firing his best shot. But again, it's a tall order for a 3 year old to win the Classic in his first start against elders--only Concern has ever done it (in a weak year, which this isn't). Heck, he hasn't faced a good horse since winning the Haskell in August, and depending on how you want to characterize the 3yo crop, he hasn't faced a good horse all year. He's honest and has yet to run a bad race, but we think he's going to be overbet.

Longshots for Exotics

4. Fly Down. Trainer Nick Zito's had a goofy year. He's had horses (including this one) run in the money in the Fountain of Youth, Wood, Preakness, Belmont, Jim Dandy, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, but not win any of those races. His biggest stakes win was probably Morning Line in the Pennsylvania Derby. Given this guy doesn't mind the 10 furlong distance, will be coming from the back of the pack late and is in relatively good form, it seems appropriate that Zito would finish the year with a clunk up piece of the purse in the year's biggest race at 30-1.

3. Etched. This horse has had tons of promise and only a modest payoff to date, as he's lacking the proverbial "big" performance. He's 7-for-9 in his career, has won 4 graded stakes races, and is impeccably bred (the good sire Forestry, dam is BC Distaff winner Unbridled Elaine). He's only taken one real shot against the top of the racing world: last year's Clark, where he bombed at short odds. This year he's run twice and won both times (an ungraded stakes races and the Monmouth Cup), stalking the pace and winning tough stretch battles. Now it's his third start of the year and he's taking on the big guns again while training up a storm and in great form. Yes, he'd be a strange winner, because it's rare for a horse to win the Classic without a prior Grade 1 win (in fact, we think it's never happened). But at 20-1 or so, he's very live for exactas and triples.

Down Goes the Champ

2. Zenyatta. Only an idiot would pick against a horse that's 19-for-19. Well, here are your idiots. The Queen obviously has a shot and if she wins, it'll be one of the greatest moments in racing history. But here's what she's up against:

(i) Shipping to Churchill Downs. Every indication that we have is that she's not the best shipper, otherwise Shireffs would have done it more than twice.

(ii) The toughest field she's ever faced. People like Joe Drape want to hype last year's Classic field, which is almost funny. Last year's Classic was on a synthetic surface where good dirt horses like Summer Bird spun their wheels and was more akin to a turf race: grass stars Gio Ponti and Twice Over ran 2nd and 3rd. This field has the two best horses from last year's 3yo class, the best horse from this year's crop of 3 year olds, a turf horse every bit as good as Gio Ponti, and even a Japanese invader. It's not going to be easy.

(iii) Her results this year tell us nothing. Yes, we know that Zenyatta only does what's needed to win. But her speed figures are meh and she's run against horses that would all be 40-1 or higher in this race. Last year she beat Life is Sweet, Cocoa Beach and Lethal Heat; this year the only horse of note she beat was St. Trinians. And her figures haven't improved at all.

Contrary to most others, we don't care about the switch to a dirt surface--we think she'll handle it fine. And we think she'll come roaring late. But we think she'll fall short too...

The Pick

1. Blame. The biggest hole in Blame's resume is he's not Zenyatta. He's bred to get the distance, loves the track, is in good shape, and is going to get a perfect set up with a good amount of speed in the race. Which he doesn't even need--he won the Whitney and Stephen Foster this year as a closer when the pace was lackadaisical and the distance was shorter. We're willing to excuse his last race because of the two month layoff and Haynesfield freaking on the lead on his home track. But now he gets two turns and a return home and an honest pace to run out. He'll get first run on Zenyatta. Can he hold her off? We think so.

Good luck to all and enjoy the races!

Breeders Cup Warmup: the 2009 Classic

Our final Breeders Cup warmup race is the most recent race: Zenyatta's win in last year's Breeders Cup Classic, which never gets old. Enjoy.

Horses of the Decades Part I: The Females

We had intended to write something about the horses of the decade. And then, Daily Racing Form blogger, publisher, columnist and racing aficionado Steve Crist threw down the gauntlet:

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to share your thoughts on which Eclipse Award winners of the soon-to-be-over 2000's were the very best of the decade, division by division. I'll make my final choices next week and the results are scheduled to be published in the DRF newspaper of January 2, 2010.

While we could simply list a bunch of horses in the comments section, there are some interesting debates to be had in many of these categories, and we're suckers for reminiscing about a decade of horse racing. So let's take up Steve's challenge and break down the 10 categories for decade-long Eclipse awards. In Part I, we'll break down the awards to females: 2yo, 3yo, 4yo+ and turf filly. In Part II, we'll break down the awards for males (same groups) and top sprinter. In Part III, we'll see who has a case for Horse of the Decade.

2 year old filly

3 horses won the Eclipse Award in this category solely because they won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: Caressing in 2000, Tempera (2001) and Dreaming of Anna (2006). As they lack a real championship campaign, they're out of contention, along with whoever wins this year (probably She Be Wild).

Indian Blessing (2007) has had probably the best career out of all of these horses. However, solely looking at her 2 year old campaign (which we think is our charge, at least for the 2yos and 3yos, given that's how they awarded the Eclipse), she ran only 3 times and won the Breeders Cup in the mud where nobody fired. She's out too.

Halfbridled (2003), Sweet Catomine (2004) and Folklore (2005) were all nice horses with strikingly similar campaigns: all had 3 graded stakes wins that included a Grade 2, a non-Breeders Cup Grade 1, and the Breeders Cup JF. They all also have small bonus points in their favor: Folklore won another race and was never worse than second, Halfbridled's Breeders Cup win was probably the most impressive given she started from the deadly outside post, and Sweet Catomine was the most impressive looking on the track. Still, they're pretty tough to separate from each other, and unlike two other horses, lack the third G1 win. So let's look at the real two contenders:

--Storm Flag Flying (2002). Won three Grade 1's in her two year old season: the Matron, Frizette and Breeders Cup JF in a scintillating victory where she was passed in the stretch and came back. Until Zenyatta's Classic win, it was a contender for best BC moment this decade.

--Stardom Bound (2008). Hard to remember now, but at the beginning of this year, this was the three-year-old filly everyone was talking about, and not Rachel Alexandra. And with good reason. She won three G1's in California last year, including the BC JF, in a rallying style like Sweet Catomine but with a hair more panache. All of her stakes wins were authoritative, and everyone thought she'd be a superstar this year. (Sadly, injury kept that from happening.)

At the end of the day, SFF's Breeders Cup win was one of the most impressive this decade, and she did leave California to win a race. That tips the scale slightly in her favor over Stardom Bound. For the third slot, we'll give it to Halfbridled, who beat Ashado in the Breeders Cup (we'll get to her in a minute), won for fun from an outside post on BC day, and could have been a great one had she stayed healthy.

Eclipse Ballot: 1. Storm Flag Flying; 2. Stardom Bound; 3. Halfbridled .

3yo filly

Rachel Alexandra, who will win the 2009 Eclipse for this category in a walk, takes this category for the decade in a walk as well. Her 8-for-8 season with two wins over 3yo males, older males and 40+ lengths of wins in the Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose is one of the best seasons ever by a filly. It's not worth debating too much, so let's instead ask: who get the other two slots on the ballot?

Let's dispense with the uninteresting ones quickly. Smuggler (2004) is one of the worst Eclipse winners this decade, winning in a year where nobody really put together a solid campaign. Wait a While (2006) and Xtra Heat (2001) won despite being specialists (turfing and sprinting, respectively) because like Smuggler, they succeeded in down years, and while both were neat horses, neither had the resume to be at the top. Farda Amiga (2002) and Proud Spell (2008) had markedly similar seasons with wins in the Kentucky Oaks and Alabama and some other decent showings, and while good, remain a level below the elite. This leaves us with three real contenders for the silver and bronze:

--Surfside (2000) dominated in a winter of 2000 with a pair of G1's (SA Oaks and Las Virgines), took the summer off, then came back to run a good 2nd in the Breeders Cup Distaff and beat the boys in the Clark Handicap. A win over older males means a lot, but the season was a hair odd and erratic.

--Ashado (2004) had an 8 start season with 3 big wins (Kentucky Oaks, CC American Oaks and BC Distaff), a pair of minor wins (Cotillion and Fair Ground Oaks) and a troika of excusable losses (Ashland to speedball Madcap Escapade, Mother Goose to the underrated Stellar Jayne and Alabama when she chased the pace and was caught by Society Selection). One of the better horses to run this decade, if forgotten in the wake of Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra.

--Rags to Riches (2007) is here based on two wins: a dominating win in the Kentucky Oaks and being the first filly to take the Belmont since Teddy Roosevelt was President. There wasn't too much of a campaign beyond that, but when you win the Belmont, you may not need one.

Based on the entire campaign, Ashado (left) clearly had the second-best 3yo filly season: a full 8-race campaign, ran at 7 tracks, and beat older females. We're going to be in the minority here and take Surfside for the third slot; we don't like that Rags to Riches only ran once again after the Belmont and lost the race. Longevity in the campaign does mean a lot.

Eclipse Ballot: 1. Rachel Alexandra; 2. Ashado; 3. Surfside.

Older Fillies and Mares

There are only seven horses to pick from here, as Azeri won three times (2002-2004) and Zenyatta won in 2008 and is a cinch to win it this year. We'll dispense with trying to make a case for Gourmet Girl (2001), Fleet Indian (2006), or Ginger Punch (2007): Gourmet Girl won by default in a horrible year, and Ginger Punch and Fleet Indian are the 5-6 finishers here in some order. We'll also give the above-mentioned Ashado kudos for a nice four year old season while noting that she's clearly the #4 of this group based on her older horse campaign.

How we judge this category actually turns on whether the question is best season or best career. Because if we're simply going by best season, the unheralded Riboletta (2000) is a real contender to dethrone Azeri and Zenyatta. In 2000, Riboletta dominated on both coasts with 5 G1 wins and 3 G2 wins. She entered the Breeders Cup Distaff as a 2-5 favorite that was everyone's lock of the day...and promptly bombed and finished well out of the money. Had she won the Distaff or even finished a strong second, she'd win the "best campaign" hands down.

While we're at it, let's check out the 5 Azeri and Zenyatta campaigns, just to help us split these two up a little:

Azeri '02: After winning a restricted race, she ran second in a G2 then ran off seven straight wins, incluing 5 Grade 1's (one of which was the BC Distraff) and 2 Grade 2's. While she was named Horse of the Year, that was in part because there were no good male horses that year. Indeed, her campaign, outside of the Breeders Cup win, is pretty similar to Riboletta's 2000 season.

Azeri '03: Started off the year with 3 G1's, then won a G2 in California before losing the Lady's Secret to the immortal Got Koko and getting injured before the Breeders Cup. She almost lost this Eclipse to Sightseek; you can't make a case this was her best year.

Azeri '04: D. Wayne Lukas took over her campaign from Laura DeSeroux with some truly odd results. She won the Apple Blossom, Spinster and Go For Wand (all G1's), but lost the Humana Distaff, Ogden Phipps (finishing 4th!) and Personal Ensign. On top of that, she had two starts against males where she was never competitive. Again, far below the '02 season, but kinda neat in retrospect.

Zenyatta '08: 7-for-7 all year (4 G1's, 3 G2's), a win outside of California where she annihilated the previous year's Eclipse winner (Ginger Punch) and true dominance on Breeders Cup day. Contender.

Zenyatta '09: A boring campaign is rounded out by a stellar BC Classic win. One win does not make a season, even if it was one of the greatest wins in BC history.

So what to do? We think that the Eclipse Award for the non-2yo and 3yo categories really should look at a horse's entire body of work. Based on that, Riboletta isn't a contender, as Azeri and Zenyatta tower over her. Still, we do want to note that if we did it based on a single season, she'd win. She was THAT dominant in 2000; nobody came near her until she flopped at Churchill Downs.

As for Azeri versus Zenyatta...this is not an easy debate. Azeri ran around the country, took on all comers, and put together two excellent years and one interesting year. But Zenyatta was undefeated and won the Breeders Cup Classic. You can't argue with perfection. Only Personal Ensign can match her undefeated record, her consistency, and her panache. And that makes her the top pick.

Eclipse Award ballot: 1. Zenyatta; 2. Azeri; 3. Riboletta

Turf Filly

The bias here is going to be fairly high in favor of European based horses, because, with all due respect, horses like Forever Together (2008), Lahudood (2007), Perfect Sting (2000) and Golden Apples (2002) campaigned against American horses and ran almost exclusively other fillies. While there's nothing wrong with that, European fillies raise the bar by routinely take on the boys and win. Their records may be less perfect than their American counterparts, but that goes part and parcel with facing tougher competition. If they repeatedly ran against the likes of Snow Polina and Megahertz, we're confident in arguing that they would have near perfect records.

For example, let's look at the 2003 Eclipse winner, Islington. That year, Islington had two wins and two thirds in six starts, which looks mediocre on its face. But in that campaign, she ran third to High Chapparal and Falbrav in one race (who ran 1-3 in the BC Turf that year), ran third to a pair of Euro studs in Nayef and Rakti earlier that year, and her two off-the-board finishes were a 3-length loss to males and a silly trip to Japan in December. We know results matter. But that's a mile more impressive than Perfect Sting racing against fillies that would be 200-1 against Falbrav.

As impressive as Islington's 2003 campaign was, she's not a contender for the top slot. Ouija Board (right) wins this category hands down based on both the best individual season (2004) and her entire career. Let's sum up a filly that will be mentioned in the Horse of the Decade argument in a few days:

--In 2004, her 3yo season (the best season by any Eclipse winner in this category), she ran five times and won 4 starts, including the BC Filly & Mare Turf, the Irish Oaks and the English Oaks. What's even more impressive is her one loss was a third place finish in Europe's biggest race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Yowks.

--Her next two seasons had "only" 5 wins in 14 starts. But the quality of those wins--damn. They include 4 Grade 1's, ranging from the F&M Turf, the Hong Kong Vase (!), the Nassau Stakes and Prince of Wales Stakes; all races of great import. Her other in the money finishes include the Japan Cup, Irish Champion Stakes, Coronation Cup, QEII Cup, and 2005 F&M Turf as well. She competed against the best and more than held her own. That merits the top spot in this division, and she's arguably the best turf filly to run in this country since Miesque.

--Her 2006 trip to the Breeders Cup resulted in Lord Derby coming to Churchill Downs for the race. His pre-race interview where he mocked how we pronounced the word "Derby" while sporting some horrible teeth was a highlight of the racing season.

After Ouija Board, for the rest of the ballot, it's a question of who you take a shine to between the aforementioned Islington, Banks Hill (2001) and Goldikova (2009, probably). Our personal preference goes to Goldikova for the place slot, based on her two BC Mile wins and her dominance on both sides of the pond (her losses in 2008 were to Zarkava, one of the best fillies this decade period), and Islington, who would have won two straight F&M Turfs but for Kieran Fallon's execrable ride in 2002. Banks Hill, while very good and dominating in the 2001 F&M Turf, lacked the overall je no se qua of the other two and seems to coast by on being out of super-mother Hasili.

Eclipse Award ballot: 1. Ouija Board; 2. Goldikova; 3. Islington

Coming up on Saturday: the males and sprinters.

Sleeper Horse of the Year Candidate?

We're about 60% of the way through the meaningful horse racing season, and there are exactly three candidates for Horse of the Year. Barring something less foreseeable than Mine That Bird's Derby win, there are no other potential HOTY candidates. Who's in the running?

1. Rachel Alexandra. The prohibitive favorite at this juncture, she's 7-for-7 this year, has won four straight G1's, and has a pair of wins over the boys in the Preakness and Haskell. She's legitimately 1-5 to win HOTY, and looks like she's the best filly since Personal Ensign.

2. Zenyatta. She's done nothing wrong with year with three wins this year, two G1's, and is still undefeated in her career. The problem is that she's done nothing exciting by staying on the West Coast and appears to be ducking Rachel Alexandra. She has no shot to win this award without shipping east to face RA, which seems unlikely. If she changes her mind, ships, and beats RA, then she's got a shot.

3. Gio Ponti. The horse that no casual fan has heard of, and the real sleeper member of this trio. He's the only horse besides RA this year to win 4 Grade 1's, with wins in 4 turf stakes from 1 mile to 1 3/8 miles. He won the Arlington Million in fantastic fashion on Saturday, and looks to be legitimately one of the best turf horses we've had in a while.

Still, a male turf horse has no real shot against RA for HOTY. Unless...he ventures a little outside of his comfort zone and goes for the Breeders Cup Classic. Ridiculous? Not at all--the race is being run on synthetics this year, and as we saw last year with Raven's Pass, turf horses often like synthetic surfaces. Heck, his breeding even indicates that he'd like non-dirt surfaces.

So let's say he caps off his year by winning another G1 turf race and then the Breeders Cup Classic. Is that enough to take down RA? Depends. If she falters in her last few starts, then maybe it's worthy of consideration. If she does something else ridiculous such as winning the Travers or the Woodward, however, she can retire, make the Hall of Fame and wrap up HOTY before Labor Day. Which frankly, would be amazing.

Breeders Cup Preview Part IV: The Friday Races

There are five races run on Filly Friday, one of which is quite fascinating and will get its own post later today/tomorrow: the F&M Turf. For the other four races, let's take a more summary-yet-in depth look at the races and make some predictions.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Oh, what to do with Indian Blessing? Baffert's fine filly is trying to win her second different Breeders Cup race, something that's never been done before. (Several have repeated in the same race, but none have won two distinct races.) She's wicked fast, she loves seven furlongs, and the competition is suspect. So why am I suspicious about her, besides the pace perhaps frying her? She's working out well, but not specatularly over the track. Methinks it takes something out of her speed, and leaves her susceptible to being killed by the early pace.

Given the anticipated pace meltdown, let's instead turn to Intangaroo, who will be 5-1 or so despite having won THREE Grade 1 stakes this year, and Tiz Elemental, a bomber who should be flying late and loves the track and the distance. Ventura isn't impossible, but query whether Frankel goofed by running her here instead of the Mile. The real wildcard is Zaftig, who has the fastest speed figure, but hasn't run since early June. Tough to back her off of that long a layoff.

Picks: 1. Intangaroo 2. Tiz Elemental 3. Indian Blessing

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Consequence Consequence Consequence. Consequence Consequence. Consequence? Consequence Consequence! Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence. Consequence Consequence Consequence? Consequence Consequence. Consequence!

To fill out the rest of this crapshoot of a race, let's take stabs on Saucey Evening, who's already shown an affinity for the Santa Anita turf, and Euro import Heart Shaped. But this race smacks of toss up.

Picks: 1. Consequence 2. Saucey Evening 3. Heart Shaped

Juvenile Fillies

The most impressive winner of their prep race for the Breeders Cup was Zenyatta, who we'll get to in a minute. The second most impressive winner was Stardom Bound, who rocketed to the the front from the back of the pack in her last. She's proven she likes the track, she's plenty fast, and she'll get a real pace to run at. If she's 2-1 or higher, she's a great win bet.

Underneath, let's ignore Doremefasolatido, who seems like she's not stout enough to get the distance, take a pass on the hyped Sky Diva, who beat little in the Frizette and is up against it making her third start, Shug's Persistently, who's not training well, and Lukas' Be Smart, who doesn't really fit the description of a contender. Instead, let's take a couple of price plays. Evita Argentina is by neat first year sire Candy Ride, beat Stardom Bound two races ago, and comes into this race off a well-planned layoff, much like Tempera in 2001. Van Lear Rose won her last two races in Canada, is bred by the interseting young sire Stroll, should love Pro Ride, and may sit a perfect trip. Both of these horses should be 15-1 or higher, and are interesting plays.

Picks: 1. Stardom Bound 2. Evita Argentina 3. Van Lear Rose

Ladies Classic (nee Distaff)

Zenyatta is so far and away the best horse in this race, it's not even funny. She's probably has a 75% chance to win this race, which means she'd be an overlay at 3-5. Her only real negative is drawing the rail, but I can't see that stopping her. Let's move on to more interesting things: deciphering the trifecta.

Bear Now and Santa Teresita don't belong in this race, or in this discussion. Ginger Punch is the defending champion and has had a good year on paper (5 wins in 7 starts, including 3 G1's), but anyone who's watched her races can see that she isn't quite as good as last year and may be tailing off. I love McGaughey, but Carriage Trail looks like she simply freaked on Keeneland's polytrack in her last, and is probable to regress here. Cocoa Beach is an intriguing newcomer, but will probably win the Tamweel Award for being the most grossly overbet horse relative to her odds. People are talking about getting 10-1 on her; if she's 4-1 on Friday, I'll be surprised.

By contrast to Cocoa Beach, Hystericalady has had a fine year (7 starts, 4 wins), and while she can't beat Zenyatta, she's every bit as good as all the other horses in this field, and is 15-1 on the morning line. As the best pace-setter in the race, there's every reason to think she'll hang on for a piece at a nice price, given she hasn't run a bad race since February. Even more interesting is Music Note, who's a head bob from being undefeated this year, loves the distance, and is related to turf phenom Musical Chimes, which may translate into a love for synthetic surface. Play these two underneath the titan instead.

Picks: 1. Zenyatta 2. Music Note 3. Hystericalady

Breeders Cup Preview Part III: The Names of the Days

The epicenter of attention at the Breeders Cup every year is the Classic, and this year, the main story will be Curlin trying to repeat as the winner of the Classic, and holding off improving three year olds Colonel John and Casino Drive, while mourning the loss of Big Brown. There will be approximately 75,000 stories about these horses written and told in the coming days. But Breeders Cup weekend isn't just about the Classic, there are 13 other race over the Friday and Saturday that will crown champions and/or establish leaders in niche fields. And there are other horses running that are worth discussing and knowing. Here are six of them.

1. Zenyatta. As much as Big Brown, Eight Belles and Curlin have dominated the mainstream media attention this year, Zenyatta is to many racing fans the best and most interesting horse to run this year. She's undefeated after 8 starts, including six victories this year in 3 Grade 1's and Grade 2's in California and Arkansas. She's beaten every older filly of note, and done so with relative ease, to the point where fans are calling on her connections to run against the boys in the Classic. This isn't likely to happen, as her connections are smart and cautious (the same people that owned and trained Giacomo and his brother Tiago) and know they've got a star here. She'll be 4-5 to win the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic (nee Distaff). The real unfortunate thing is that the Distaff is being run on Friday while most of us are at work, because she's probably the best horse to run all weekend.

2. Stardom Bound. This 2 year old filly has a monster closing kick, which has propelled her to a pair of Grade 1 wins on the West Coast this year. She headlines a quite interesting Juvenile Fillies this year, which is also being run on Friday, but features stylish Frizette winner Sky Diva, the improving Persistently, and the fantastically named Doremefasolatido. Still, that troika has their work cut out to beat Stardom Bound, who's shown an affinity for synthetic surfaces, has been well-managed by the underrated Christopher Pasach, and should get a real pace to run at. She should join the likes of Indian Blessing, Halfbridled, Sweet Catomine and Storm Flag Flying as strong 2yo fillies who impressed on BC day with big denouments.

3. Henrythenavigator. Hailing from the famed Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien stables from Ireland, he was a dominant turf miler earlier this year until losing his last two to the talented Raven's Pass. He'd be a strong favorite (or second choice behind Raven's Pass) in the Mile, but his connections appear to be opting towards running him in the Breeders Cup Classic instead. While they're basically taking a free stab at increasing the horse's stud value 50%, it's worth noting that (a) this horse hasn't raced beyond a mile ever, and will be going 2 furlongs further in the Classic, (b) he's a turf horse, not a dirt/faux-dirt horse, and (c) Coolmore tried this exact same thing last year with George Washington, who broke down and was destroyed during the race. The reports are that they're running him in honor of GW, but you have to ask whether they're just being stupid.

4. Fabulous Strike. The freakishly fast son of Smart Strike has made exactly two starts since winning last year's Vosburgh: a win in a minor stakes race at a minor track, and a gut-wrenching loss to longshot Black Seventeen in the slop in this year's Vosburgh. To say he's talented is an understatement, as is to say he's fragile. His two starts this year put him in the "very light" category for preparing for the BC Sprint, but the only horse that's going to run that's run faster than him is last year's champion, Midnight Lute, who's had exactly one start this year, where he ran off the board. How you interpret these freaks with short resumes is the key question to this year's edition.

5. Forever Together. By contrast to Fabulous Strike's blazing early speed, this filly turfer has a closing kick that should be competitive with the beset Euro turf fillies. She's a fun story, as she had a fairly undistinguished dirt career before switching to the turf this year, where she promptly won a minor stakes race, ran a fast closing 3rd at 44-1 in the Just a Game, and then won a pair of G1's in her last three starts. Her trainer, Jonathan Sheppard, is a quintessential good guy that has made the Hall of Fame training steeplechase horses, and she's probably the best flats horse he's ever had. Look for her to give the Euros a run for their money.

6. Eagle Mountain. This will be trainer Mike de Kock's first entry in the Breeders Cup, as he'll run in the Turf off of one start this year, a victory in a Grade 3 mile race in Europe. That race was so impressive that de Kock's connections bombarded British bookies with enough money in futures bets that his odds dropped from 16-1 to 7-1. This defines him as The One To Watch.

We'll have previews of the races in the coming week, including a guaranteed upset selection in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filies Turf. Mark it down.