Breeders Cup Preview Part V: The Classic

Assuming the entire field actually goes to post, this is shaping up as one of the best Classics in recent memory. You have 2 Eclipse Award winners. You have the best horse from this year's class and the two best horses from last year's class. You have a top turf horse trying the dirt. You have a scrappy New York bred. You even have an intriguing Asian horse.

So the Classic merits a little more attention than the synopsis we gave the other 13 races. Let's go back to our traditional countdown from bottom to top.

Why Are You Doing This?

12. Pleasant Prince. The highlights of his career have been wins in the Oklahoma Derby and the Ohio Derby. His biggest mistake to date was not trying to complete the trifecta by running in the Osaka Derby. Entering the starting gate on Saturday is going to be his second biggest mistake.

11. First Dude. We'll save our invective about the Palins for another time and simply note that he's still 1-for-11 in his career and is early speed in a race filled with...early speed. See you next year.

Good Horse, Wrong Race

10. Paddy O'Prado. They're going to do a rain dance at Dale Romans' barn, because this horse's only good effort on the dirt was his 3rd in the Derby when the track was a soupy mess. Sadly, Saturday's forecast is only for freezing cold weather. He's developed into a very reliable turf horse, and would be competitive in the Turf, so their next step is to...go back to the dirt and take on Zenyatta? Are they gluttons for punishment?

9. Musket Man. He's a dirt performer, but has failed to indicate that he can stay more than 9 furlongs. Heck, he only has one win at more than 1 1/16 miles: the Illinois Derby last year against nobody of note. Didn't they invent the Dirt Mile for horses like this?

Too Much Early Speed

8. Haynesfield. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, 9-for-13, early speed, underrated. Whatever. He's never run outside of New York (let alone won) and is a need the lead horse in a race where there are at least 3 other who want to be on the front end. Just don't see it.

7. Quality Road. We're less worried about the stamina issues than others--his two races at 10 furlongs that he lost both had excuses (slop, layoffs, etc.) and weren't bad. We're more concerned that he's going to get caught up in the early pace with Haynesfield and First Dude, especially from the inside post, and have nothing left at the top of the stretch. Also, we're completely unconvinced that this guy is in as good form as he was this winter/spring. Since winning the Met Mile, he lost the Whitney when everything went his way and had a completely meaningless (and unimpressive) win in the Woodward against horrible horses. And now comes in off a 2-month layoff. For this, you want 5-1?

Real Contenders We Don't Like

6. Espoir City. The history of Japanese shippers into this race is unimpressive; Casino Drive, Taiki Blizzard and Personal Rush were three who failed to do anything. But this guy at least won the Japan Cup last year, so he has class on his side. We're more concerned with the lack of experience at 10 furlongs, because he's never run the distance. The horses that have won the Classic without ever running at the distance are Ghostzapper, Saint Liam, and Zenyatta--two of the three best horses this century, and a guy who was a solid performer in a weak year. If he's a Hall of Fame talent, we'll happily concede that we're wrong. But we doubt it.

5. Lookin at Lucky. We actually admire this guy for being consistent and usually firing his best shot. But again, it's a tall order for a 3 year old to win the Classic in his first start against elders--only Concern has ever done it (in a weak year, which this isn't). Heck, he hasn't faced a good horse since winning the Haskell in August, and depending on how you want to characterize the 3yo crop, he hasn't faced a good horse all year. He's honest and has yet to run a bad race, but we think he's going to be overbet.

Longshots for Exotics

4. Fly Down. Trainer Nick Zito's had a goofy year. He's had horses (including this one) run in the money in the Fountain of Youth, Wood, Preakness, Belmont, Jim Dandy, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, but not win any of those races. His biggest stakes win was probably Morning Line in the Pennsylvania Derby. Given this guy doesn't mind the 10 furlong distance, will be coming from the back of the pack late and is in relatively good form, it seems appropriate that Zito would finish the year with a clunk up piece of the purse in the year's biggest race at 30-1.

3. Etched. This horse has had tons of promise and only a modest payoff to date, as he's lacking the proverbial "big" performance. He's 7-for-9 in his career, has won 4 graded stakes races, and is impeccably bred (the good sire Forestry, dam is BC Distaff winner Unbridled Elaine). He's only taken one real shot against the top of the racing world: last year's Clark, where he bombed at short odds. This year he's run twice and won both times (an ungraded stakes races and the Monmouth Cup), stalking the pace and winning tough stretch battles. Now it's his third start of the year and he's taking on the big guns again while training up a storm and in great form. Yes, he'd be a strange winner, because it's rare for a horse to win the Classic without a prior Grade 1 win (in fact, we think it's never happened). But at 20-1 or so, he's very live for exactas and triples.

Down Goes the Champ

2. Zenyatta. Only an idiot would pick against a horse that's 19-for-19. Well, here are your idiots. The Queen obviously has a shot and if she wins, it'll be one of the greatest moments in racing history. But here's what she's up against:

(i) Shipping to Churchill Downs. Every indication that we have is that she's not the best shipper, otherwise Shireffs would have done it more than twice.

(ii) The toughest field she's ever faced. People like Joe Drape want to hype last year's Classic field, which is almost funny. Last year's Classic was on a synthetic surface where good dirt horses like Summer Bird spun their wheels and was more akin to a turf race: grass stars Gio Ponti and Twice Over ran 2nd and 3rd. This field has the two best horses from last year's 3yo class, the best horse from this year's crop of 3 year olds, a turf horse every bit as good as Gio Ponti, and even a Japanese invader. It's not going to be easy.

(iii) Her results this year tell us nothing. Yes, we know that Zenyatta only does what's needed to win. But her speed figures are meh and she's run against horses that would all be 40-1 or higher in this race. Last year she beat Life is Sweet, Cocoa Beach and Lethal Heat; this year the only horse of note she beat was St. Trinians. And her figures haven't improved at all.

Contrary to most others, we don't care about the switch to a dirt surface--we think she'll handle it fine. And we think she'll come roaring late. But we think she'll fall short too...

The Pick

1. Blame. The biggest hole in Blame's resume is he's not Zenyatta. He's bred to get the distance, loves the track, is in good shape, and is going to get a perfect set up with a good amount of speed in the race. Which he doesn't even need--he won the Whitney and Stephen Foster this year as a closer when the pace was lackadaisical and the distance was shorter. We're willing to excuse his last race because of the two month layoff and Haynesfield freaking on the lead on his home track. But now he gets two turns and a return home and an honest pace to run out. He'll get first run on Zenyatta. Can he hold her off? We think so.

Good luck to all and enjoy the races!

2010 Preakness Preview

Fact: while the Kentucky Derby is the most famous race in America that everyone wants to win, and the Belmont is the "Test of the Champion", the Triple Crown race most likely to produce a champion is the Preakness.

Really? Well, yes. 11 of the last 13 Preakness winners were later crowned 3yo colt of the year, and three of them (Charismatic in '99, Point Given in '01 and Curlin in '07) won Horse of the Year. By contrast, only 7 Derby and 3 Belmont winners won an Eclipse that year. One of the two exceptions was last year's winner, super filly Rachel Alexandra, who was ineligible to win the 3yo colts' Eclipse Award, but instead won the 3yo filly Eclipse and Horse of the Year. That leaves 2000 winner Red Bullet as the one real exception to the rule, who won in a crazy year where eventual champion Tiznow came from nowhere to win the Breeders Cup Classic.

Why has this been the case? Well, in this time span, 7 Preakness winners were also Derby winners, and 2 Preakness winners also won the Belmont. Win 2 Triple Crown races and you'd need something really goofy to happen to lose the Eclipse Award. But the other big reason is that of the three Triple Crown races, the Preakness most resembles a regular horse race. The Derby is a unique race: a 20-horse field, a 160,000 person crowd, a new distance for all the runners, and the presence of a slew of horses with little or no chance that can make it impossible for some contenders to win. (Just ask the connections of Ice Box.) The Belmont is run at a mile and a half on the dirt, a distance that horses are rarely bred for and will likely never run again, making it an anomaly in modern racing and producing quirky results. (Commendable? Da'Tara? Sarava?)

By contrast, the format of the Preakness is quite similar to most Grade 1 races. The field size is usually 8-11, and will never be larger than 14. The distance (9 1/2 furlongs) isn't too far and for many of these horses, is shorter than their previous race (the Derby) or only a little longer than a prior race. Traffic trouble is less of a problem because of the smaller field. And Pimlico generally plays pretty fair to front-runners and closers. In many respects, it's the "truest" of the Triple Crown races.

Which is why you rarely see a longshot win the Preakness. In this same 13-year span, we've seen only two horses win the race at odds over 5-1. One was Charismatic, who had just won the Derby at 31-1, and stupidly, most people thought he couldn't do it again. He won easily at 8-1. The other was Bernardini (2006), who was 13-1 partly because he only had 3 prior starts and partly because he was running against Barbaro, who was 1-2.

What this means is that the Preakness isn't the race to go bomb hunting unless there's a phenom you love or the public is ignoring the fave for some reason. Does either exception apply here? Let's count them down in reverse order of likelihood.

Watch Yourselves Out There, Kids

12. Northern Giant. D. Wayne Lukas is arguably the best trainer in this history of the Preakness with 5 wins. Sadly, the last one came in 1995, and he hasn't had a horse finish in the money since 2003. Given that this guy has zero wins on a dry dirt track, finished DAFL in the Arkansas Derby and is painfully slow, we think he's not going to get Lukas off the schneid.

11. Yawanna Twist. The highlight of his career to date has been non-threatening 2nds to Awesome Act and American Lion, two horses who lost the Derby by a combined 80 lengths. His next highlight will come when he wins the New York Derby at Finger Lakes Racetrack in July.

Good Horse in a Bad Spot

10. Schoolyard Dreams. Barely lost the Tampa Bay Derby 2 races back (beating Super Saver in the process, who hadn't run in 4 months), he was throttled in the Wood despite getting a perfect trip. He looks like a perfectly fine Grade 3 horse that can win a G1 or G2 if he catches a weak field and a bunch of things break his way. Neither applies here.

9. Dublin. This horse has zero wins beyond 7 furlongs in 6 tries, and hasn't improved his speed figures in about 9 months. The Preakness will make it 7 tries with no success. Why even bother with a route race? Why not aim for something like the Woody Stephens and King's Bishop?

The Derby Did Not Tell Us Much

8. Jackson Bend. Trainer Nick Zito didn't love that this guy was 12+ lengths out of it in the Derby and has vowed that he'll be closer to the pace in the Preakness. That's fine and good, but it doesn't change that this horse is winless in open company and doesn't appear to be fast enough to compete for the win slot and has zero acceleration. Look for him to menace near the lead on the far turn, and get passed by half the field in the stretch.

7. Paddy O'Prado. After we mocked this guy, he turned around and ran 3rd in the Derby. Guess what? We're still against. We've now got proof that he's good on turf, synthetics and slop, which is not uncommon. We still have no proof that this guy will be any good on a fast track, which is what he'll get on Saturday. Additionally, he was gasping for air at the end of the Derby and his jockey (Kent Desormeaux) has been fighting allegations that he gave up on the race late. He's a very likely candidate to be overbet (5-1?) and regress badly in the Preakness.

Newcomers for Exotic Purposes Only

6. Pleasant Prince. Lost by a nose to Derby runner-up Ice Box in the Florida Derby. In an effort to get enough winnings to make the Derby, lost horribly in the Blue Grass and ran a blase 3rd in the Derby Trial. He rates better than some because he has excuses for his last two losses--they were on synthetic and in the slop, respectively--but he's a stone closer in a race that lacks a ton of early speed. Has a shot to clunk up and his the superfecta at an OK price.

5. Aikenite. Todd Pletcher's "other" horse in the race, he's also a stone closer with a shot to clunk up at a price. We rank him slightly higher because we think he'll be a longer price than Pleasant Prince and like that he's coming in a little fresher. There's almost zero chance this guy could win (if he has a shot, would Pletcher be running him and ruining a Triple Crown bid?), but at 30-1, he's exactly the kind of horse you should throw in the bottom slot of your trifectas and supers.

4. First Dude. He's accomplished even less than Aikenite and Pleasant Prince, but he has tactical speed that the last two horses lack. He also has run three straight 9 furlong races which we like; we think he'll have a good foundation to get the distance (unlike, say, Yawanna Twist). And he's sporting a pair of bullet workouts. Could stick around and hit the board at a huge price.

Contenders

3. Super Saver. Has there ever been less enthusiasm over a Derby winner that wasn't an upset? Most of the discussion and accolades over the past two weeks has been over Calvin Borel, Todd Pletcher, and Ice Box (who many argue should have won). Almost nobody has been arguing that this horse is the next coming of Unbridled, let alone Affirmed, and while he'll probably be the favorite in the Preakness, it'll probably be a tempered 5-2/3-1 choice.

Those are tempting odds to take on a well-bred, well-connected horse that just won the Derby, but we don't love him here. We don't love Pletcher horses coming back in 2 weeks--we know few trainers do it these days, but Pletcher never runs a horse back that quickly, which is partially why he's had so few Preakness runners (none of which have done anything). We think there's no way he gets as good a trip here as he got in the Derby; in fact, that's going to be impossible, because his Derby trip was perfect. And we're wondering if he's just a Churchill Downs freak. He's 2-for-2 at Churchill and 1-for-5 elsewhere. It's a little reminiscent of 2007 winner Street Sense, who was a monster at Churchill and just very good elsewhere. And he got beat in the Preakness. We think he contends but ultimately loses.

2. Caracortado. The new shooter with a chance. For all the chatter about how horrible Lookin at Lucky's trip was in the Santa Anita Derby, few focused on this guy's horrible trip, which probably cost him 3rd place. He's a pretty honest runner with tactical speed, an underrated trainer, and breeding that looks obscure but is actually quite good--his sire was a high-priced , well-bred Storm Cat horse that had an early career ending injury, and his dam is out of Maria's Mon, who's the sire of Super Saver. Yes, he has no real dirt experience (his 4 furlong debut doesn't count) and his jockey is someone we don't know too well. But he'll probably be about 15-1 with a real chance to do some damage. We think he's a must-use not only in exotics but in multi-race wagers.

The Pick

1. Lookin at Lucky. Many want to argue that Ice Box was the best horse that didn't win the Derby, but we're pretty sure it's this guy. Pinched at the start and roughed up a furlong into the race, he was 20 lengths out of it early, which is not his game. He rallied belatedly and pretty well to only lose by 7 lengths on a day where he got no racing luck and was on a sloppy surface that he didn't love. Now he turns back slightly in distance, gets a new jockey (Garrett Gomez is one of the best in the business, but had no luck on this guy), and should get a much, much, much better trip in a smaller field that lacks a true speedball. More importantly, we think he's just the best horse in this class. And if we're going with the theory that the top horse of the class will win the Preakness, he's the most likely winner.

Playing the Race

We suspect that both Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver will be around 3-1, and if so, they and everyone else you like is worth a win bet, because tripling your money is nothing to sneeze at. If you like a longshot like Caracortado or First Dude, look to playing them in doubles or Pick Threes; their odds will be even longer in the multi-race wagers (and by contrast, LAL, SS and Paddy O'Prado will likely be shorter in those bets).

Good luck to all!

Our First Look at 2010 Derby Prospects

It's March 1st, and we haven't done anything on the Derby yet this year. For shame. Let's skip the pithy introduction and instead take you right to a baker's dozen of horses that are on our radar now for the 136th Run for the Roses.

Everyone's Favorites

1. Lookin at Lucky. Last year's 2yo champion--we had the temerity to name him the best 2yo champion of the past decade--has yet to run since winning December's CashCall Futurity, his third G1 win of the campaign. He'll make his first start in a couple of weeks (where, nobody knows) and will probably run in the Santa Anita Derby. The big issues here are that he has never run on the dirt and has never run a particularly fast race.

2. Eskendereya. Named for an Egyptian dance, he romped by 9 in the Fountain of Youth on the 20th over a pretty good field. He'll run next in the Florida Derby. The big question is what he does after that--the Florida Derby is now six weeks before the Kentucky Derby, and as we've documented repeatedly, a recent race is needed to win in Kentucky. The first of four horses on this list that Todd Pletcher trains.

3. Rule. Here's Pletcher's second horse, who just won the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. There's chatter that he'll also go to the Florida Derby but look for Pletcher to keep this front runner away from Eskendereya and instead point for the TB Derby.

Next Start Tells Us a Lot

4. Discreetly Mine. Pletcher's third horse on this list, he won the Risen Star in front-running style. The question is whether or not he's got the stoutness to go further; he got away with an easy trip, and while his mare has produced some very talented horses (Pretty Wild, Discreet Cat), none of them have been true "stayers." We'll learn a lot in the Louisiana Derby about this horse's ability to go 10 furlongs.

5. Dublin. Ran an okay race off a layoff (and throat surgery) in the Southwest, he looks to improve in the Rebel in two weeks. We'd love to see this guy be as good as he looks, because he's trained by D. Wayne Lukas, and it'd be a hoot to have him back on the Triple Crown Trail with a real contender.

6. Buddy's Saint. Was the second choice in everyone's future books based off his Remsen and Nashua romps in 2009, he ran next-to-last in the Fountain of Youth after a horrible ride and trip. We're less concerned about where he finished than that he probably got nothing out of the race, and is only scheduled to have one more start before the Derby. One start is not the way to go into the race.

7. American Lion. Everyone's sleeper horse last year returned to the races with a poor effort in the Bob Lewis, where he was fractious throughout. Definitely had an excuse for his third place finish, but needs to show a lot more in his next to remain a chief contender.

Do You Intend to Run This Year?

8. Vale of York. Last seen winning the BC Juvenile at over 30-1, his first start this year will be in the UAE Derby in Dubai at the end of the month. It's unclear if he's coming to the US after that for the Derby; his trainer said he may point for Europe instead, which is probably smart, because the horse seems like a synthetic track freak.

9. Super Saver. Pletcher's fourth top contender, we don't get the hype behind this horse. Yes, he won the Kentucky Cup last November, but that race has traditionally produced horses that are overbet in the Derby, not winners. He's well-bred and well-connected, but we're taking him seriously once he actually runs a race this year.

10. Noble's Promise. Arguably the second-best 2yo last year, he's scheduled to make two pre-Derby starts in Arkansas. His breeding, however, leaves a lot to be desired; a horse by Cuvee out of a Clever Trick dam should thrive at 6 furlongs, not 10.

We Just Love the Names

11. Radiohead. Won a strong allowance race on Saturday and is now in the barn of Dicky Dutrow of Big Brown fame. Interesting longshot play, but he needs to win a graded stakes race fast.

12. Caracortado. This year's feel good story, he's undefeated, ran in a claiming race first out (meaning you could have had him for $40k), is a gelding, comes from modest connections, and has rather obscure breeding (Cat Dreams?). We like him more because his name is Spanish for "Scarface".

13. Odysseus. Demolished a field in Tampa Bay by 15 lengths, it's unclear where he shows up next. What is clear is that he's got a world of talent and unlike many others this year, looks to have star potential.

Horses of the Decade Part II: The Boys

After looking at the gals in Part I, we're turning to the boys in Part II. Because the discussion for the 3 year old colts is fairly length, we're going to break it up into two pieces. In the next post we'll get to the male turf horse and sprint horse, and have some other side awards, Bill Simmons-style.

2yo colt

Let's dispense with the easy ones. Action This Day (2003) is in the running for worst horse to win an Eclipse Award (we may do a small bit on that later on) with exactly one good win to his credit, the BC Juvenile. Declan's Moon (2004) was a nice horse that won by default when a bomb won the Juvenile. Macho Uno (2000), Stevie Wonderboy (2005), Street Sense (2006) and Midshipman (2008) were all fine specimens of horseflesh--this group includes a Kentucky Derby winner--but basically won the Eclipse award solely because they won the Juvenile. That's fine and good, but knocks them out of the running for something grander. So let's look at the four remaining contenders.

Johannesburg (2001). Went 7-for-7 as a 2 year old, which included four Grade 1 wins, 3 in Europe and one in the BC Juvenile. There's little to find fault with here, except to note that the Juvenile was his only route race and his only dirt race, and in that, his chief contenders (Officer, Siphonizer) threw in clunkers on either a dead rail or an off day.

Vindication (2002). 4-for-4 in his 2yo campaign, he had a visually impressive win in the Kentucky Juvenile and then won the Breeders Cup Juvenile in somewhat impressive fashion. Somewhat. Compromising the accolades for his win was that his chief contender (Sky Mesa) was an early scratch and his top competitor (Hold That Tiger) broke poorly and had a ride from hell. We're impressed but not bowled over.

War Pass (2007). The fastest of all the 2yos this decade, he was 4-for-4 and popped off a speed figure over 110 in his BC Juvenile win. The caveats are that his Juvenile win came in the slop, where other horses may not have fired their best shot and that he was never really challenged early in any of his races (he was a speedball).

Lookin at Lucky (2009). Won three Grade 1's and was a very, very unfortunate 2nd in the BC Juvenile to Vale of York. We like that this horse won stakes races at a bunch of different distances and stretched out from a sprint to a route with no difficulty. We also like that after running in the Juvenile he came back and won another stakes race in December; the number of horses that have just packed it in after October/November are innumerable. He's a bit of a throwback to the horses in the 90's (Favorite Trick, Real Quiet) who ran actual lengthy campaigns as juveniles. We don't like that he never ran on a dirt track, but it's not his fault that California mandated that all dirt tracks be converted to synthetics.

To us, it comes down to how much credit you give Johannesburg for his overseas sprint wins and a goofy BC Juvy win versus Lookin at Lucky's dominance over a synthetic surface. We give Johannesburg a lot of credit for his overseas exploits, but note that winning a bunch of turf sprints as a two year old is a far cry from the success Euros have in older races with stiff competition; it's easier to duck or miss big horses when you're a Juvenile. By contrast, this year's champion took on all the best horses in the States, was repeatedly successful in route races and was clearly the best horse of his class. We're not sure that was the case with Johannesburg, who may have just been the best in on BC day when only one other horse (Repent) fired.

Eclipse Ballot: 1. Lookin at Lucky; 2. Johannesburg; 3. War Pass.

3yo colt

We remind everyone that for this group we're only looking at a horse's 3 year old campaign, which means all those that want to argue that it has to be either Curlin or Tiznow...save it for Horse of the Decade debates. This is actually a pretty fun group to analyze because there are six horses that won two legs of the Triple Crown, three other horses that won one leg plus the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and one horse that skipped the Triple Crown but won Horse of the Year. A countdown is in order.

10. Funny Cide (2003). His three-year-old season had three good races: a nice second in the Wood, a Derby win, and a Preakness romp. Honestly, his best race was probably losing the Wood where he showed good speed and guts. After that he won the Derby over an ailing Empire Maker (who he couldn't beat in the Wood), and beat only one horse of any consequence (Peace Rules) in the Preakness. By the end of the year, few really thought he was better than Empire Maker, who beat him again in the Belmont, and Funny Cide's 8-2-2-2 record for the year is unimpressive.

9. War Emblem (2002). One of the odder horses to contend for the Triple Crown, as he was all or nothing speedball. His 2002 season had 10 races with 5 wins (which included the Illinois and Kentucky Derbies, the Preakness and the Haskell), a 5th place finish, two 6th place finishes and two 8th place finishes. We can't help but think that he's only here because he caught a track bias on Derby Day and won a weak Preakness and Haskell. Had Medaglia d'Oro shown up for the first two legs of the Triple Crown or not succumbed to Volponi in the Breeders Cup Classic, he would have won this award.

8. Summer Bird (2009, presumably). A nothing before the Belmont, he subsequently rattled off wins in the Belmont, Travers and JCGC, before running an okay fourth in the BC Classic. A nice year, and we like him to have a big 4-year-old season.

7. Afleet Alex (2005). But for a horrible loss in the Derby, he would be our twelfth Triple Crown winner, as we previously discussed ad nauseum. Alas, not to be. Like the next two horses, he was fairly talented but we're punishing him a bit for calling it quits early in the year; would it have killed his owners to run him in the fall after he recovered from his minor injury or in 2006?

6. Smarty Jones (2004). We were never big fans of this guy, and still think his Derby was a fluke because of the torrential downpour twenty minutes before post time. Still, for 5 months he was tough to beat and his Belmont run was amazing for 11 furlongs. Also punished because he was retired early and because we lost the Pick Six thanks to his Belmont defeat.

5. Big Brown (2009). Boundless potential, great results except for the Belmont, intolerable connections. We won't belabor the points we made about 86 times last year.

4. Tiznow (2000). This class was a talented group--Tiznow, Giant's Causeway, Albert the Great, Captain Steve, El Corredor, and Aptitude were all very good horses. But the real story from that year was the hype around Fusaichi Pegasus, proclaimed Super Horse before the Derby, after winning the Derby, and after winning the Jerome before the Breeders Cup, despite the horse having breeding, soundness and handling issues. And while the majority presumed that FuPeg would romp at the Breeders Cup, in the end, this guy won in a classic battle with Ireland's Giant's Causeway. Prior to that race, Tiznow was somewhat obscure; he hadn't run in the Triple Crown, and his big wins were the Super Derby and Goodwood. In the end, those three wins made him Horse of the Year. But it was a pretty weak year all around (the best other options were Lemon Drop Kid and Kona Gold--ugh), and while his campaign was neat, it wasn't quite up to the level of the next three.

3. Bernardini (2006). On paper his year wasn't much better than a few of the horses we've already discussed; he won the Preakness, Travers, JCGC and Jim Dandy, which isn't too different from Summer Bird, and Bernardini also ran 2nd in the BC Classic. The difference was how much talent, potential and ability this horse showed. With the possible exception of Big Brown, none of the previous seven horses were as freakish and machine-like as this guy, who from May to September was one of the best horses we've seen this decade. We're still sad he didn't run as a four year old, because he could have been an all-time great.

2. Curlin (2007). He'll get a better treatment from us in the Horse of the Decade debate, so we'll just answer it quickly, why isn't he our #1 instead of...

1. Point Given (2001)...? Broken down, Point Given had a better 3 year old season. Point Given was the only horse to win four $1,000,000 races in a row (Preakness-Belmont-Haskell-Travers) and was fairly dominant in all 4 races over a pretty solid crop of horses. Prior to that, he won both of this Derby preps, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, and with a better ride, probably could/should have been second in the Derby behind Monarchos. By contrast, Curlin won 3 Grade 1's (Preakness, JCGC and BC Classic), ran a good 2nd in the Belmont and a solid 3rd in the Derby. His campaign was amazing considering he hadn't run as a 2 year old. But for the three year old season only? Point Given's 2001 was the most dominant horse we saw and he gets the nod.

Eclipse Ballot: 1. Point Given; 2. Curlin; 3. Bernardini.

Older Male

We can divide these ten horses into four groups.

(1) Nice horses that won the award because they were the best in weak years, and have no business being in the discussion. By this we mean Left Bank (2002), Lawyer Ron (2007) and whoever wins this year (probably Gio Ponti). Thanks for playing, fellas.

(2) Horses that we clearly the best their year and were in no way transcendent. Lemon Drop Kid (2000), Mineshaft (2003), and Saint Liam (2005) were all very good horses and should have won the Eclipse in their respective years. Are any of them even close to a Hall of Fame conversation? No.

(3) The warriors. Tiznow (2001) and Curlin (2008) both followed up winning Horse of the Year a as a three year old by running ambitious 4 year old campaigns. Tiznow's season was in two parts: he ran well in California by winning the Big 'Cap, then took off the summer to run a pair of 3rd place finishes before winning the BC Classic. A nice year and a nice horse, but not exactly Pensky material.

Curlin won Horse of the Year for his 4 Grade 1 wins in 2008: the Dubai World Cup, Stephen Foster, Woodward and JCGC. He also ran a fairly game second in a try over the turf and a miserable 4th in the BC Classic. Great performances, great talent...there are really no knocks here.

(4) The freaks. Invasor (2006) is the freak closest to people's minds because he ran...well, 3 years ago. On a personal note, we saw this horse in the paddock before he won the 2006 Whitney and were blown away by how enormous he was. A physical specimen, outside of a meh run in Dubai, he won everything else in 2006, including a strong with over Bernardini in the BC Classic. Another horse with few flaws (he followed this up with wins in the Donn and Dubai World Cup in 2007).

But if there's a horse that defined brilliance and talent, it was Ghostzapper (2004). Ghostzapper's 2004 campaign was a perfect 4-for-4 with wins at 7 furlongs (Tom Fool) 9 furlongs (Woodward, some Jersey race) and 10 furlongs (BC Classic). Beyond that year, he won Grade 1's at 6 1/2 furlongs (Vosburgh) and a mile (Met Mile). While rarely healthy, when healthy, he was the fastest horse since Formal Gold and the most versatile in two decades. He could win long or short, in the front or from the rear. And he's the best older horse we saw this decade, hands down.

Eclipse Ballot: 1. Ghostzapper; 2. Curlin; 3. Invasor.