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(1) Just because a horse can't win doesn't mean he can't hit the board. Last year, for example, nobody really thought Jazil or Steppenwolfer could win, but all agreed they could run well. Bear this in mind when it comes to some of these; while I don't think Tiago has any shot to win, he's a great bet to hit the top 4.
(2) By contrast, there are a slew of horses that are the definition of boom or bust. I'd be greatly surprised if Curlin ran 3rd. He's a much better bet to win or run up the track.
Enough self-laudatory bullcrap. Taking it from the bottom, here's the ten horses that I can't see winning, or frankly, hitting the board on Saturday. As tough as the top tier is to separate, it's that much easier to find the horses who have little or no shot.
Thanks for coming fellas!
#20: Bwana Bull. He accomplished a tremendous record running against schlubs in Northern California. When called on to face second-tier competition in the Santa Anita Derby, he flopped marvelously. So naturally, the next step is to...run in the Derby? Wasn't there an easier and cheaper way to get tickets for the owner?
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#18: Storm in May. Well, he ran second in his last race. Sadly, he was trounced 11 lengths in a less than stellar renewal of the Arkansas Derby. The Form sad it best when it said his best shot to his the board was to turn the results chart upside down.
#17: Teufelsberg. I suppose I understand why Jamie Sanders is running him in the Derby; he's her first real horse, and the publicity is great. That being said, he's a front runner with severe distance limitations and isn't top-shelf in a race where speed generally gets burned. Why not go for the Withers and a shot? Let's just hope he doesn't get hurt.
#16: Stormello: The other main pacesetter for the race, he rates one higher than Teufelsberg because he actually wasn't god-awful in the Fountain of Youth. Also, he's got a pissload of frequent flyer miles from traveling to Florida twice this year, so maybe he'll get a free trip to Emerald Downs.
Outside of the Top Tier
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#14: Cowtown Cat: Pletcher's #4 horse, who did win the Illinois Derby, but did so beating nobody at all, and while running a fairly mediocre time. Plus his name stinks. I know I've said it before, but why the hell would you give a horse such a stupid name after paying a million bucks for him?
#13: Sedgefield. Here's the first horse I could actually see hitting the board, and if you're looking for an utter bomb to throw in your trifecta or superfecta, there are worse ideas. Granted, the Derby will be his first race on the dirt, and his last race stunk, but at 50-1 or so, I certainly have seen dumber ideas. But to win? No shot.
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Look, there's a real chance we're seeing a phenom like we did last year with Bernardini. But I can't quite see it; the breeding's not quite there, the competition hasn't been beaten, and he still has only run thrice since February 1st. Maybe he'll break all the rules. But at 3-1, I'll take that chance.
Tomorrow: The top 10 horses, or where we start to get to hosses who could actually do some damage on Saturday. And baseball too! This is, after all, a high-class fantasy website.
4 comments:
Have you read Beyer's column in the Washington Post today? I think he plagiarized yesterday's post.
Egregious. We here at the GRBG plan to demand that Beyer agree to refer to speed figures as "Gowanuses" for the rest of the Triple Crown season. Who's with us!
You know, I read the column on the DRF site, and thought after he went through why the Derby wasn't like any other race "hmmmm....". Glad it's not just me. He'll get his proper due in tomorrow's finale.
As a Washington-area lawyer, Beyer is definitely not beyond stealing material. I know that we at http://east-coast-bias.blogspot.com are really impressed by your Derby material.
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