New Sister Blog

For all those who can't get enough racing, we've launched our sister site, Racing Esoterica, for everyone's pleasure. To be updated in earnest starting this week.

Why This Year's Belmont is Boring

If you haven't heard yet (i.e., if you're not one of horse racing's 34 fans that knows what a blog is), Street Sense, the Derby winner, is passing on the third jewel of the Triple Crown, next Saturday's Belmont Stakes. Is he hurt? Nope. Is he tired? Also nope. So what's the reason? The connections feel like waiting for the Travers, a race in August.

[Trainer Carl] Nafzger said Street Sense was in good shape physically. He worked an easy half-mile at Churchill Downs on Wednesday.

"He's ready to go," Nafzger said. "I'd never use that as an excuse."

By stopping now, Nafzger said he believes he can get Street Sense back to the races quicker this summer than if he were to go to the Belmont.

"He could give 110 percent in the Belmont, but could he come back and give 110 percent in the Travers, and still be on a campaign to give 110 percent in the Breeders' Cup?" Nafzger said. "It's like a running back. You need some time off. You get tired of putting pads on every day and running wind sprints.

Is this the right decision? I'm not going to go all Bill Finley (the Steve Rushin of racing) on you and lament the fact that the Belmont's now "just another race" for the general public. The idea that the Curlin-Street Sense "rivalry" was going to bump up attendance in Elmont by 30,000 and 3 Nielsen points is insane--if there's no Triple Crown on the line, the casual fan's just not going to be interested, and it'll get the usual perfunctory ratings. And if it's a nice day, the locals will show up, no matter who's running in the big race. The notion that this is putting racing behind the 8-ball is totally unfounded; racing is shooting itself in the foot about 390 other ways ahead of Carl Nafzger's decision.

No, the real question is whether or not Nafzger is doing good by his horse. Steve Crist makes an excellent case in the Daily Racing Form that Nafzger knows from his earlier experiences with Unbridled how to leave something in the tank for the big races later in the year, and Street Sense will have to be at his peak to beat Invasor, who's arguably the best older horse we've seen in the U.S. since Silver Charm. Maybe it's a good idea to skip an anachronistically long race in June to freshen up your horse and point for the fall classics, right?

Sound as this logic seems, I have to disagree. If you've got a healthy horse here and now, and there's a historic race to run...you run him, and take on all challengers. Defeating Curlin in the Belmont would almost wrap up the division title for Street Sense, at which time he can rest with a 2-prep comeback for the Breeders Cup. To forego a spot where he'd be a prohibitive favorite to try to win the Travers is ludicrous; the Travers is the oldest race in America, and still means something if you're a Saratoga person, but the Belmont is bigger--it's the Triple Crown! Mr. Carl, I think you're doing the wrong thing here. And in the process, you've killed the Belmont from a wagering standpoint, which frankly, is more inexcusable than anything else.

So what's left for next Saturday? Well, Curlin is running, and will be a stiff favorite to make it two in a row for the classics and to take a huge lead in the race for the prestigious Eclipse Award. Hard Spun's coming back in what may be his final race before his stud plans are finalized, but it's hard to see this out of control speedball gutting it out for an additional quarter of a mile. Tiago and I'mawildandcrazyguy come back after skipping the Preakness leg, both stone closers in a race that appears to be bereft of speed. Todd Pletcher's either going to run his boy (Circular Quay) or his girl (Rags to Riches) and either will be immensely overbet relative to their chances in the race. That leaves the improving Slew's Tizzy as an interesting longshot, and as of now, you have to think the Curlin-Slew's Tizzy exacta may be the way to go.

Of course, there's a great chance some trainers will see a $1 million purse up for grabs, realize you get $100k for running third, and enter some hopeless longshots for kicks anyway. But barring someone intrguing like Sightseeing, Chelokee or Street Magician being pointed for the race at the eleventh hour, suffice to say that while the Belmont is still a classic race, it'll be the least interesting race on the day at Belmont. Too bad.

Preakness Preview

Saturday brings us the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown, brought to you from Pimlico Race Course in Maryland. A couple of key differences between the two races: while the Derby was 1 1/4 miles, the Preakness shortens up to 1 3/16 miles, thanks to the goofy configuration of Pimlico. Additionally, while they get a good crowd at the Preakness (100,000+), it's not quite as much a madhouse as the Derby. Unless you're in the infield, where you'll see more unflattering topless UM co-eds than you ever knew existed.

As the middle leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness has always been something of the ugly stepchild of the 3 year old trilogy. It's not at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles, and isn't the "Test of Champions", it's instead more analogous to a pit stop on the way from horse capital Kentucky to New York. It obviously doesn't get as strong a field as the Derby (though few races do), and while it's more formful as a result of the smaller fields, it's also a bit less exciting in that you're unlikely to see a bomb win the race like Giacomo or Charismatic. And even winning the race, while a tremendous accomplishment, borders on anticlimactic--either you've foiled a Triple Crown bid, or you've cleared a necessary hurdle en route to the real test in the Belmont.

Further making the Preakness something of the Fredo Corleone of the Triple Crown family is the fact that trainers now routinely skip the race to point for the Belmont, rather than run back on 2 weeks rest after the Derby. Indeed, to some level, you have to ask whether the Preakness has become a racing anachronism by its goofy timing. This was once heresy, as horses used to never win the Belmont without running in the Preakness or another horse within 2-3 weeks of the Belmont. But we've seen this broken numerous times in recent years, with Commendable, Empire Maker, Birdstone and Jazil all pulling the trick of skipping the Preakness and pointing for the Belmont victoriously. By contrast, this century we've only seen Point Given and Afleet Alex pull the Preakness-Belmont double after losing the Derby. (This fact is also reflected in the fact we've seen Bernardini and Red Bullet win the Preakness without competing in the Derby, something that hadn't occurred since Tank's Prospect in 1983.) As a result, instead of seeing races full of Derby horses taking another shot, we've gotten multiple incarnations of second-string 3 year olds taking on the leviathans from the Derby, with blow-out results--ignoring the Barbaro fiasco last year, the last 3 Preaknesses were all romps.

Then, of course, there's the 800 pound gorilla in the room, namely, the dying financial viability of Maryland racing in general and Pimlico specifically, which is always the subject of a cranky article by Plagarizing Andy Beyer every Preakness week. Pimlico, on its best day, is one of the ugliest sports facilities known to mankind, below the level of Olympic Stadium and a bowling alley in Camden. It's a money pit to the state 364 days of the year, with Preakness day and its 100,000 denizens being the only saving grace to the state's racing year. Compounding the problem is that while all the neighboring states (Delaware, West Virginia, and now Pennsylvania) have slot machines churning money that goes right back into purses, and thus gets the better horses and fuller fields, Maryland's stymied in a non-slots world, a death sentence if you're a track outside of New York, Kentucky and Florida. With the track decaying, and a once proud racing state now approaching financial brinkmanship at the track, there have been rumors the Preakness may get moved to somewhere else in the future. I'll believe it when I see it (i.e., when Magna racing cuts its losses in Maryland), but to say it's a precarious position is putting it nicely.

Regardless, we're confronted with the fact that Street Sense is two victories away from the Triple Crown. Who's in this race and what are their chances? Let's go in reverse order of preference, once again.

We're Just Happy to Be Here

#9: Mint Slewlep. On the Preakness undercard in 1999, a depressed and suicidal patron jumped onto the racetrack and stood in the path of Artax on the hope that he'd mow him down. As a result, Artax pulled up and lost the race to Yes It's True. We'll need about a dozen drunken Terrapins or the Stanford band to pull off a similar stunt here to give this guy a shot.

#8: Xchanger. The upside on this guy is that he's won on the track, with a win in the Federico Tesio 4 weeks ago, which has produced the occasional board hitter like Magic Weisner (2002) and the aforementioned Tank's Prospect. Unfortunately, it's also produced execrable commodities like Malibu Moonshine and Ah Day. This guy looks like a pure pace factor (in a race laden with early speed) and really isn't that fast, and you have to expect he'll be running in the wrong direction by the far turn.

#7: Flying First Class. You want to like this horse because he's popped a triple digit Gowanus Speed Figure and has D. Wayne Lukas in his corner. Then you back up and realize that he's also early speed in a race full of front runners, Lukas hasn't done shit in years, and that he's run nothing shy of horribly in both his route races. This really is a poor spot for him to run, he should be sprinting. Can we future him to win the King's Bishop?

Exotics Fodder, Potentially

#6: King of the Roxy. The second horse Todd Pletcher has ever run in the Preakness, with the first being the plodder Impeachment in 2000, who clunked up for a distant third. He's going to get a ton of action because of the Pletcher factor and because he ran 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, but he's also really a sprinter trying to sneak off with a route race. It's very VERY telling that Pletcher & Team Valor, both players who spot their horses smartly yet aggressively gave the Derby absolutely no consideration either before or after the Santa Anita Derby, and instead are trying to steal a consolation prize in a weaker race. He'll be horrendously underlaid, and while he could hit 3rd if the race falls apart, I don't believe he's remotely relevant in this race.

#5: C P West. Named for Central Park West, Nick Zito sat out this year's Derby to bring the Withers runner-up to this spot instead, and somewhat wisely so, as this guy hasn't had enough of a 3yo campaign to have made him Derby ready. He was a hyped two-year old that still hasn't developed, but he's very VERY eligible to improve in his third start of the year. He also exits the Withers, which has produced Bernardini (winner, 2006) and Scrappy T (runner-up, 2005) in the last couple of years. Can't see him winning. Can see him improving for a trifecta finish.

The Sucker Horse

#4: Hard Spun. He gets ranked above the others because unlike those hopeless causes, he actually has a shot to win this race, but no, I'm not coming within 30 miles of him. I thank him and Larry Jones for running well in the Derby and giving me the exacta, but this is where I bid them adieu. I'm not the first person to notice this parallel, but I draw you back to 2003 and 2004, where good speed horses in Peace Rules and Lion Hearted, respectively, ran great 3rds and 2nds in the Derby, and everyone thought the cut-back in distance would help them. Right? Nope. Both of them were nowhere to be found when the finish line arrived, finishing over a dozen lengths behind the winners, not to mention their defeats to luminaries such as Scrimshaw and Eddington. History repeats itself here; this guy runs with the longshots up front, then begins to back up at the top of the turn and finishes well out of the money. The good news? He'll be about 3-1 with everyone and their brother playing the "shortening up" angle and operating under the misguided notion that Pimlico favors front runners (it doesn't), putting a ton of free money in the pot for the rest of us.

Actual Contenders

#3: Street Sense. Um....didn't this guy just win the Derby? Well, yes. There's obviously a ton to like, not the least of which is his breeding, his speed, and the fact he's been expertly trained to date. Yet, I can't get past the sneaking suspicion that this is the racing equivalent of a "trap game" for this horse. Putting aside the large reservations that I have that he's clearly a Churchill Downs freak (which may or may not translate elsewhere) and that he got a clean and ground-saving trip in the Derby, there are two bigger, nagging issues here. First, Carl Nafzger has freely admitted that he single-mindedly prepared Street Sense for the Derby, and gave essentially no thought whatsoever to what came after. I don't love that; I can't fault Nafzger for pointing for Derby immortality, but it's worth noting that Unbridled in 1990 flopped in the Preakness after this stellar Derby. Second, and more importantly, something that hasn't been much discussed is the distinct possibility that there was a severe rail bias on Derby Day. Consider that not only did Street Sense rally up the rail, but also that Hard Spun held clear after torrid fractions and longshot Sedgefield ran a huge race while also taking the golden rail. Maybe the three of them were riding a bias to the nth degree (something the earlier dirt races don't disprove). If so, he's a prime candidate to regress.

I freely admit that I play the contrarian more often than not in picking races, but this is a time where I think it's somewhat justified. He's a hideous play at even money, and while he may put a huge effort up on Saturday, he won't be my pick to repeat. A much more interesting idea, though, is...

#2: Circular Quay. I'm borderline shocked that this horse is running in the Preakness, as he & King of the Roxy will be the 2nd and 3rd horses Pletcher has saddled in this race, after the immortal Impeachment clunked up for third in 2000. Pletcher generally doesn't love to run back horses on short rest (not the case with King of the Roxy, who's been dormant for 6 weeks), which makes the idea of running this guy even more intriguing, as clearly blood is smelled by the nation's best trainer. Let's also look at the fact that this guy ran fairly well off an 8-week layoff in the Derby, when he changed paths about 7 times and took the overland route to a better-than-it-looked 6th place finish. Now, it'd be folly to argue that the Derby was a prep for the Preakness, but it certainly may have been a tightener for a horse that needs it. The downside? I still don't love that this horse hasn't had any success at 1 1/8 miles, and his best stakes win was a 7 furlong sprint at Saratoga last year. But the pace looks to be strong, and he'll be flying late. Prime contender, to say the least.

The Winner

#1: Curlin. Unlike Circular Quay and to some degree Street Sense, I don't think we've seen this horse's best, and his 3rd place finish in the Derby (which I called extremely unlikely, proving my accumen) was a very, very good effort for a horse making his 4th start. I like him to improve even more here, sitting a better trip than he did last out (when his post hurt him tremendously) off a torrid pace and getting first run on the closers, who will have to wear him down. Like Circular Quay, I also think the Derby was a great effort to get some fitness into the horse; witness the fact he's only had a slow maintenence work since then to keep him on his toes. This is the race he moves forward and establishes himself as the co-top horse of the class with Street Sense.

The Picks

1st: Curlin
2nd: Circular Quay
3rd: Street Sense
4th: C P West

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the races!

Sunday Special

We'll have the long-overdue TA up tomorrow unless Teddy or I get eaten by locusts while slaving away at senseless briefs. But first, three things.

(1) WE ARE THE GREATEST HANDICAPPERS IN THE WORLD!!!!!!!! GO STREET SENSE!!!!

(2) We'll only do one preview of the Preakness come next Thursday or Friday, but early reports are that we'll have five runners from the Derby go on to Maryland: Street Sense (duh), Hard Spun (2nd place), Curlin, (3rd), Sedgefield (5th) and Teufelsberg (17th). Six or seven new shooters should be joining them, so let's give an early warm welcome to Chelokee, Xchanger, C P West, King of the Roxy, Slew's Tizzy, Flying First Class and Starbase. More to come next week on why I think Hard Spun is a horrendous bet in the Preakness, why Todd Pletcher really shouldn't be upset, who from that new group of horses you should be looking at (hello Chelokee & CP West!) and how Street Sense could lose.

(3) I want real opinions from Yankee fans on them bringing back Fatso today. (No, Mike Francesa will not be taking the Don Zimmer consigliere role, though frankly, that would be awesome.) My wife has declared she may never root for the Yankees again. My brother may have officially peed in his pants with delight. Personally, as a Met fan/Yankee hater, I'm elated that they've now gone beyond selling their soul to the devil and have sold it to Dick Cheney. So really, Alex & Co., what say ye?

TA truly coming tomorrow, and also to follow this week, our semi-regularly State of the League updates. Now, on with what you weren't doing.

Kentucky Derby Preview Part III: The Contenders, The Exotic Fodder, and The Winner

As I'm publishing this on Friday morning/afternoon, there's little to no chance that unlike my first posting, Andy Beyer will try to plagarize the insightful and pithy comments I have to offer here. Well, presumably. Maybe I should write a race recap now, and see if that gets picked up by the Washington Post as well. Then again, in years past that would have meant seeing results charts in the Derby with the likes of Point Determined, Bandini, Borrego, Ten Most Wanted, Private Emblem and Vicar on top. So maybe that's not the best idea.

But to address the one question I've gotten repeatedly this week first---what's it like to be at the Kentucky Derby? Well, it's a combination of Mardi Gras and a formal outdoor garden party. Sitting in the same row, you'll have yuppies in golf shirts, crazies in beer-soaked t-shirts, and sophisticates in their best dresses. And the hats are wild. And there's the random celebrity sightings that just add a bit to it: not only will the racing afficianado love seeing Mr. & Mrs. Baffert randomly strolling about with binoculars (though not this year since they have no runners), you'll also random see Kirsten Dunst sneaking in a smoke sans makeup or Michael Imperioli trying to compute a trifecta ticket. It's truly one of the great experiences of Americana, and must be attended by all. WITH a mint julep, a drink that unfairly gets a bad rap. (If you like slurpees & bourbon, you're all set.)

We now come to the top half of the Derby field, horses that certainly have a shot to win on Saturday, though obviously, that's not gonna be the case for 9 of them. Let's start with those horses that have a shot, but really aren't all that interesting when analyzed.

Unexcititing & Ultimately Harmless

#10: Scat Daddy. The fantastically named son of Johannesburg exits a gutty win in the Florida Derby to come as Todd Pletcher's main charge. Say what you will about this guy (and I will), but he fights with the best of them in races. The problem? Well, outside of the fact his breeding doesn't scream for that 10th furlong, it's that he's plateaued in speed figures. He was already looking strong last July, and you somehow feel like you've already seen his best. He's reminiscent of horses we see every year that have nice resumes, but are just wholly unexciting and somehow indicate to you they're not gonna do it on the big day (examples being Brother Derek in '06, High Fly '05, Peace Rules '03). Looks to me like a middle of the pack finish is going to be capped off by a long rest and a bid at the Haskell.

#9: Nobiz Like Shobiz. He and Scat Daddy are pretty inseparable at the end of the day. There's not really a ton to criticize here either, outside of his utter failure to improve at all from a Beyer, er, Gowanus Speed Figure standpoint. It's amazing, if the general public wasn't armed with speed figures, these two guys would probably be the favorites from their outstanding records and nice wins in prep races. Instead? The world, myself included, is focused a bit more on others.

The Wildcard

#8: Dominican. Here's the horse that's the toughest to decipher in the field by far. He's undefeated on Polytrack, a faux-dirt surface that's almost more comparable to grass than dirt. He's winless on dirt, by contrast, though his efforts haven't been poor. And he's 2-for-2 this year, meaning he's up against it in terms of being shy a prep race, but he did win the Blue Grass. So what's happened? There's three possibilities: (1) He's a Polytrack freak; (2) He grew into himself; or (3) He's thriving because his owners cut off his undescended testicle. No, that's not a joke.

In his last start as a juvenile, Dominican, who is a son of El Corredor, ran third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) behind Tiz Wonderful and Any Given Saturday for owners Bonnie and Tommy Hamilton's Silverton Hill. After the race he received a layoff and was gelded.

"It was a tough decision to make, but he was a ridgling and he was uncomfortable so we needed to do so," trainer Darrin Miller said. "It was a matter of physical comfort. He is a very aggressive horse and that hasn't changed."

Well then. Whatever works, right? As imitation of what's worked before is the norm in horse racing, I weep for the fate of male horse genitalia should Dominican win.

For Exotic Purposes Only

#7: Circular Quay. He's up against it on a lot of fronts. He's a dead closer who hasn't run in 8 weeks by design, has only had 2 races, and has yet to go 9 furlongs, let alone 10. On the positive side, he's pretty quick, he's talented, he's got The Pletcher Factor on his side, his breeding and running style suggest he'll like the distance, and . Split the difference--I see him flying late but ultimately falling short. Tough to leave out of your triples and superfectas.

#6: Zanjero. Often a bridesmaid, never the bride. He's a well-bred closer that has a propensity for running evenly and finishing in the money, with minimal threat to the winners. Hell, he's now done this four times in a row, and it's quite possible that he'll do it once again on Saturday. So why this ranking? Well, he's gaining something of "wise-guy" status amongst the horse racing cognoscenti (whoever the hell that encompasses), and I'm of the impression that he's going to be a lot closer to 20-1 than 40-1, despite him having minimal actual chance at winning. A must use "underneath", but not the price play you'd think he should be for a horse that's only broken his maiden. No, the price play to hit the board is...

#5: Liquidity. While picking the winner is obviously key to making money on Derby day, equally key is finding a well-priced horse to come in the money underneath. A good way to do it? Find a horse that was well-backed last out, flopped (preferably with an excuse) and back him if there's a fair reason to do so. Horses fitting this mold include Bluegrass Cat in '06 (2nd at 33-1); Atswhatimtalkinabout in '03 (4th at ~20-1); and Invisible Ink in '01 (2nd at 55-1). Because there are so many horses of quality in the race, the Derby is a great shot to find a talented horse at a square price. So what makes Liquidity the answer? As the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby, he's shipped and run well, has tactical speed in a race that has less pace than you'd normally expect, and is nicely bred. Yeah, his last race stunk, but he'll be at least 40-1 on Saturday. A great fodder piece for your exotics.

#4: Tiago. Giacomo's baby brother who rallies well and is reminiscent of his sibling with his closing style and connections. And since I have nothing else to add about a relative of the worst Derby winner....let's here it for the Queen of England coming to Kentucky this year! She kicked off her trip to the US with a stop in Jamestown to celebrate its 400th birthday, presumably forgetting that we spent the first 180 years trying to get rid of the throne at all costs. And while the good Queen does admire the Sport of Kings, it's just too bad the Queen Mum isn't around anymore, because she was the true racing fan in the family.

Top Challengers

#3: Hard Spun. Dammit. If this guy were trained by someone I trusted and ridden by a jockey I actually thought was any good, he'd probably be my top pick at a fair price. He's extremely well bred for the distance, fast enough, has only one blemish in a weird race in Arkansas, and had a strong prep last out. His form negatives are really only the fact he hasn't run in 6 weeks....which brings me to Larry Jones. Originally the plan was to have him skip the Derby and point for the Preakness becaues they thought he may not like the track at Churchill, which is utterly bizzare. Then they gave him a workout on the track about 3 weeks ago, where he did well, and thus course was changed, and into the Derby we go.....off an unplanned 6-week layoff. To top it off, his jockey, Mario Pino, is best known for winning the Federico Tesio stakes in three consecutive years. Yeah, exactly. And lastly, Jones decided to run him insanely fast in a work out last week that probably knocked the crap out of him. I want to like him. Really, I do. But I think he's been mismanaged to the point where he may not have it on Saturday. Too bad, because he's a good one.

#2: Any Given Saturday. We now come to Todd Pletcher's 5th and final horse. Has to be a record right? Nobody's started five horses in the Derby before, have they? Well...it's actually happened twice. Pletcher's mentor D. Wayne Lukas started 5 in 1996, and one of his least heralded, Grindstone, nosed out Cavonnier for the win. Then, in 2005, Principal McVicker sound-alike Nick Zito brought a quintet to Churchill, but couldn't muster a finish better than 7th. I'll split the difference here and give the runner up spot to a horse that seems to hang and not be able to close the deal for the win repatedly. He's plenty fast, and should be cycling to a big effort off a "regression" in the Wood last out after a nose loss in the Tampa Bay Derby. Pletcher's been pointing for this with this horse since he lost to Tiz Wonderful last November, and I gotta think he's gonna have him cranked and ready to go. Small downside---EVERYONE likes this horse as their "sleeper". We'll be lucky to get 10-1 on him.

The Champion

#1: Street Sense. This guy has two historical negatives against him, the first one being the Juvenile Jinx, which I find silly, as we're looking at a sample size too small to be meaningful. It's the fact he's only run twice this year that's disturbing. But taking a step back, let's look at the horse's record for a minute. He's won his last three races on dirt tracks not covered in water. His two Polytrack efforts were both solid if unspectacular. He has a great turn of foot, and while he won't be on the pace, he won't be 30 lengths back either. His traine is tremendous. And most importantly, he's just the fastest horse in the face. His speed figures are only approached by Curlin, who I think is too green for this, and Any Given Saturday, who's also a sensible choice. But while the 2 starts this year is a small problem, I think it's more than offset by his good foundation as a 2-year old (5 races) and his repeated efforts at route distances. I think the curse ends on Saturday, and we're all complaining that we overthought this at about 7 pm.

The Play

If you're betting under $10 in the race, I suggest you stick to win bets---the favorite's either going to be Curlin or Street Sense, and neither will be below 5-2. There's nothing wrong with tripling your money if you're right. My play? I'm "keying" Street Sense & Any Given Saturday over the 5 horses below them on this vaunted list. And to make the picks official:

1. Street Sense
2. Any Given Saturday
3. Tiago
4. Dominican

Enjoy the race!

[Hey, anyone know who won the race? Wait, what? Street Sense won? Who guessed that? Oh, wait, Ang did. Point GRBG.--Teddy]

Kentucky Derby Preview, Part II: The Bottom Half

The post positions have been drawn, and it's time to analyze the field. We'll count down the twenty entrants with some thoughts (the worse the horse, the quicker the comments). First up are the horses that either don't belong, don't measure up, or have holes in their resumes that are pretty fatal. Three thoughts of caution, however:

(1) Just because a horse can't win doesn't mean he can't hit the board. Last year, for example, nobody really thought Jazil or Steppenwolfer could win, but all agreed they could run well. Bear this in mind when it comes to some of these; while I don't think Tiago has any shot to win, he's a great bet to hit the top 4.

(2) By contrast, there are a slew of horses that are the definition of boom or bust. I'd be greatly surprised if Curlin ran 3rd. He's a much better bet to win or run up the track.

(3) The last Derby bet I cashed was a strong future bet on Monarchos in 2001. The previous one was the Real Quiet-Victory Gallop exacta in 1998. In other words, while I know a good amount about racing, I'm not here to pretend I'm a great handicapper. Though I feel like I know who the winner is.

Enough self-laudatory bullcrap. Taking it from the bottom, here's the ten horses that I can't see winning, or frankly, hitting the board on Saturday. As tough as the top tier is to separate, it's that much easier to find the horses who have little or no shot.

Thanks for coming fellas!

#20: Bwana Bull. He accomplished a tremendous record running against schlubs in Northern California. When called on to face second-tier competition in the Santa Anita Derby, he flopped marvelously. So naturally, the next step is to...run in the Derby? Wasn't there an easier and cheaper way to get tickets for the owner?

#19: I'mawildandcrazyguy. Rule of thumb: don't bet horses who smush their entire name into one word. They universally suck.

#18: Storm in May. Well, he ran second in his last race. Sadly, he was trounced 11 lengths in a less than stellar renewal of the Arkansas Derby. The Form sad it best when it said his best shot to his the board was to turn the results chart upside down.

#17: Teufelsberg. I suppose I understand why Jamie Sanders is running him in the Derby; he's her first real horse, and the publicity is great. That being said, he's a front runner with severe distance limitations and isn't top-shelf in a race where speed generally gets burned. Why not go for the Withers and a shot? Let's just hope he doesn't get hurt.

#16: Stormello: The other main pacesetter for the race, he rates one higher than Teufelsberg because he actually wasn't god-awful in the Fountain of Youth. Also, he's got a pissload of frequent flyer miles from traveling to Florida twice this year, so maybe he'll get a free trip to Emerald Downs.

Outside of the Top Tier

#15: Sam P.: This guy's getting some chatter because he's trained by Pletcher and will be about 40-1, though if the chatter continues, it'll be lower. Can't see it, he's run a whopping one good stakes race, and he backed it up with the least inspiring 3rd place finish since Ross Perot's 1996 campaign. A trainer alone doesn't make the horse great.

#14: Cowtown Cat: Pletcher's #4 horse, who did win the Illinois Derby, but did so beating nobody at all, and while running a fairly mediocre time. Plus his name stinks. I know I've said it before, but why the hell would you give a horse such a stupid name after paying a million bucks for him?

#13: Sedgefield. Here's the first horse I could actually see hitting the board, and if you're looking for an utter bomb to throw in your trifecta or superfecta, there are worse ideas. Granted, the Derby will be his first race on the dirt, and his last race stunk, but at 50-1 or so, I certainly have seen dumber ideas. But to win? No shot.

#12: Great Hunter. Sadly, Fred Dryer does not own this horse. Regarding his actual merits, here's a horse where people are simply overthinking in trying to include him in the top tier. Take a step back for a second from the notion that he's been fantastic both as 2 year old and 3 year old and really examine his record. We have a horse that was utterly blah until last year's Keeneland Futurity, where he ran ok in victory. He backed that up with an utterly insignificant show finish in the Juvenile, and now comes in off a split decision in his 3yo campaign: a good win in the Lewis and a hideous 5th place in the Blue Grass. And with the exception of the Lewis, he really hasn't run that well and certainly hasn't run that fast. Frankly, his PP's are very similar to Stormello. And now he's saddled with the 20 post, which can't help things. Pass.

#11: Curlin. If yesterday's column didn't make it clear, I'm not buying the hype. He's no Indian Charlie, a horse I always deemed overrated, and he ran third to Real Quiet in 1998.
Look, there's a real chance we're seeing a phenom like we did last year with Bernardini. But I can't quite see it; the breeding's not quite there, the competition hasn't been beaten, and he still has only run thrice since February 1st. Maybe he'll break all the rules. But at 3-1, I'll take that chance.

Tomorrow: The top 10 horses, or where we start to get to hosses who could actually do some damage on Saturday. And baseball too! This is, after all, a high-class fantasy website.

Kentucky Derby Preview Part I: Traits of a Derby Winner

When you've run a race enough times like the Kentucky Derby, one would think that some trends would start to emerge that would help handicappers. And over time they have; this piece will go over them in some detail, and outline horses that deviate from the norm. But part and parcel with this year's Derby is a huge question surrounding 3 year old thoroughbred racing: does the past even matter anymore?

To say that modern horses are trained differently than they were 30 years ago is an understatement. Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and Secretariat all had substantial 2 year old campaigns, ran frequently before the Derby, ran very close to the date of the Derby, and ran many times after the Derby. Over the last decade or so, we've seen trainers try to buck these trends (outlined below) with a ton of failures. Point Given, Indian Charlie, Bellamy Road and Lion Heart were all strong faves or second choices that bucked a big trend and didn't win. And in those years past there were fine options to come up with if you saw the flaws in these contenders and looked for a horse that was more typical of the Derby profile---see, for example, Monarchos, Real Quiet and War Emblem.

2006 started the erosion of this somewhat with Barbaro's victory off a 5-week layoff, which, as we'll see, was a huge deviation from the norm. 2007 is a continuation of this to the nth degree--there's nary a horse out there that doesn't have some major chink in their armor, and the ones that don't either look too slow or are laughably bad. To say this is the hardest Derby to decipher in a while is putting it nicely.

And yet, while some people will have you believe that the history and guidelines are to be thrown out, and that you should just handicap the Derby like a regular race...I can't agree. The Derby just isn't another race, even if you toss out the historical significance. It's unique for a millieu of reasons. It's only 3 year olds. They're running a new distance (1 1/4 miles). They're in a tremendous field. The pace is (usually) fierce. And there's a crowd of over 150,000 making a lot of noise. To say you should handicap this like the 3rd at Aqueduct or the Cash Call Stakes is folly.

So what are the characteristics of a Derby winner? Let's examine a few, in the Traits of a Derby Winner, which are divided even further by their relative difficulty to overcome:

Level One: Would be Contrary to Recorded History and Common Sense

The Apollo Factor. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without the benefit of a start as a two-year old since Apollo in 1882. Let's repeat that one again. Since. Eighteeen. Eighty. Two. This marks, therefore, the 125th anniversary of Apollo being That Hoss and winning the Run for the Roses based purely on a 3-year old campaign. This is curse has struck down over 40 horses, including Hall of Famer Forego (who, in fairness, wasn't beating Secretariat without invention from BALCO), and race favorites Air Forbes Won and Pulpit. Is this a big deal this year? Well, yes, actually---Curlin is attempting to go into this race without a start as a 2 year old, and may be the Derby favorite off his scintillating Arkansas Derby performance. In fact, not only is he trying to buck this trait, he's trying to buck...

The Regret Rule. Since Regret's victory in 1915, no horse has won the Derby with 3 or fewer starts. Curlin's trying to do that as well, as he has made a whopping three starts this year in his career. It goes without saying that if he wins this year's Derby, he will have taken the rules, thrown them into the shredder, and given them the treatment Vito, Jr. did Sunday night to the gym showers.

Ok, so who's still sold on Curlin as the favorite? Didn't think so. Let's move on to other factors less insane to overcome.

Level Two: History is Not on Your Side

The Exterminator Factor. Taking the Regret Rule a step further, no horse since Exterminator in 1918 has won this race with 4 starts either. This one has taken down a lot more horses than #2, as we're recently inclined to seeing horses with only 4 starts make the dance. This group is 0-for-37, with Strodes Creek's 2nd place finish in 1993 being the most successful, and has taken down the aforementioned Air Forbes Won, along with Congaree, Indian Charlie, and Stephen Got Even. This year, we're looking at....you, Tiago. In addition to being brother to Giacomo, the worst Derby winner in recent memory, you've only got 4 races. Away with ye!

The Juvenile Curse. Since the inception of the Breeders Cup in 1984, we've had 22 horses win the Breeders Cup Juvenile, the featured race for 2 year old colts. A whopping ZERO of those winners have won the Derby. In fact, only Timber Country has won a Triple Crown race. Curse? Maybe. Many of those horses were simply prodiguous and the rest of their class caught up to them. Others were sprinters who eked out the 1 1/6 miles of the Juvenile. Others simply got hurt. This year, we're faced with Street Sense, who figures on a lot of fronts, and is up against it on some others. Difficult to figure out.

Go the Distance. The Kentucky Derby will be the first time that any of these prized three year olds will have run 1 1/4 miles. While experience at that distance is obviously not needed (indeed, distance breeding is always a key question), experience at 1 1/8 miles, the length of all preps of note, is quite important. Failure to have a prep at 1 1/8 miles (not a win, just a prep) is fairly damning. So what are Circular Quay, Slew's Tizzy and Hard Spun to do, without the benefit of a full distance prep? Well, most probably, lose.

Sunny's Halo's Ghost. Since 1955, a whopping one horse has won the Derby with 2 or fewer preps during the year: Sunny's Halo in 1983. (It's worth noting he raced 13 times in his 2 year old season.) Outside of that aberration, horses that haven't had 3+ preps have failed miserably at Churchilll Downs, though frequently running for 2nd. This one is pretty potent historically, as it includes future TC race winners Point Given, Victory Gallop, and Best Pal. This year? Well dammit, we've got a whole slew of them. We have Dominican, who has only run twice this year, and both time on Polytrack (a faux-dirt surface). We have the aforementioned Street Sense. And we have Great Hunter, who had a solid 2yo campaign, a great comeback race, and a wholly blah 2nd race this year. Are these guys gonna be seasoned enough in the stretch on Saturday?

Level Three: Difficult, Not Impossible

The Needles/Barbaro Factor: Going into the 2006 Derby, it was heresy to consider running a horse in the Derby who hadn't run in the last 28 days. Needles was the last horse to accomplish that feat in the mid-1950s, despite several trying to topple it. And then...Barbaro did it off a 5-week layoff last year. What changed? Well, the Florida Derby for starters. Until a few years ago, the Florida Derby was a March prep, and was generally a horse's penultimate race before the Derby. Instead, the genius patrol at Magna decided to make it 5 weeks before the Big Race, putting it in something of a nether-world: too close to run in a traditional prep, while farther out than usual for your final prep. While this failed for horses like High Fly and Noble Causeway in 2005, Barbaro toppled this boundary with authority last year.

So what to make of horses off a 5-week layoff? Well, Scat Daddy & Chelokee are trying to go from the same Florida Derby, so I'm willing to consider them ok. But then you have Hard Spun, who passed on the last round of Derby preps for no reason, meaning he's got a 6-week layoff under his belt. Then there's Circular Quay, who not only has only run twice this year, but hasn't run in eight weeks! Pletcher does traditionally love to give his horses time to rest, but geez.

The Sharp Prep Race. This is less of a rule, and more of a guideline: any horse that didn't run well in his prep and is a short price is a horrrrrible bet. If a horse ran poorly last out, demand a price. See Thunder Gulch in 1995 (27-1) and Giacomo in 2005 (50-1). So I ask you: how would you treat Great Hunter when he's 12-1 off a hideous performance in the Blue Grass?

Just Win, Dammit. It's next to impossible to find a Derby winner who's light on the win front; indeed, the average for the last two decades is over 3 career wins coming into the big race, with Giacomo's lone win being the main exception. (Can we just forget Giacomo existed? Great, thanks.) Who does this doink out this year? Well, besides Giacomo's baby brother Tiago, there's also Zanjero, Chelokee, Sedgefield (who, p.s., has never run on the dirt!), Sam P., Slew's Tizzy, I'mawildandcrazyguy, and Liquidity.

The Need for Speed. The good folks at the Daily Racing Form issue what's called a Beyer Speed Figure for every race, which, in essence, distills a horse's race time into a number comparable across tracks and distances. The higher the better. And the average Derby winner has posted a 106 Beyer before the big race. And here is where the biggest problem lies in this year's Derby: we have ONE horse that's cracked this number: Street Sense, in last year's Juvenile, which may have been aided by a rail bias. Whoa boy.

Coming in the next couple of days we'll break it down for all 20 horses running in the race and see where they fit in. But as you can tell, this ain't easy. More likely than not, something's going to give this year.

Derby Update

Well, one more round of preps in the bag, with two biggies remaining on Saturday (Blue Grass & Arkansas Derby) and some other scattered randomness around (Lexington, etc.). Rather than do a conventional top-something list, here's a look where horses stand in preparation for the Derby, by arbitrary category.

Let's get this show on the road!

Scat Daddy: Winner of the Florida Derby & Fountain of Youth, he's Todd Pletcher's top shooter, and will try to emulate Barbaro by going into the Derby off a 5-week hiatus. Biggest concerns are (a) that he hasn't really run that fast and hasn't hit a triple-digit Beyer yet, and (b) is by Johannesburg, who nobody is sure is going to sire a 10-furlong horse. Then again, the latter concern is somewhat offset by the fact we've seen Northern Afleet, Distorted Humor and Elusive Quality sire winners of Triple Crown races in the past 4 years. At this point, he looks like the potential Derby favorite (pending the Blue Grass), but with some holes.

Nobiz Like Shobiz: Owns a pair of wins at 9 furlongs, including Saturday's Wood Memorial. Biggest question isn't breeding, it's maturity, as he's a horse that may not like being surrounded by 150,000 people at Churchill Downs, though he looked very professional in the Wood. He should get a much better trip in the Derby behind some actual pace, something he didn't see in the Wood.

Notional: Second to Scat Daddy in the Florida Derby, this horse may get lost in the shuffle come May 5th, despite having a nice pedigree, solid connections, and a good win in the Louisiana Derby. There's some head scratching about his failure to really finish strongly in Florida, but if he's 15-1 in the Derby, you're crazy to not use him a little.

Any Given Saturday: Was my top Derby contender going into the Wood, where he faded to an uninspiring 3rd behind Nobiz and Sightseeing (below) at 3-2. It's not the fact he lost that's troubling, it's the fact that he faded in his first venture past 1 1/16 miles. He's by Distorted Humor, who did sire 2003 winner Funny Cide, but is a miler at heart. Have to wonder if we've already seen how far he can go.

Tiago: Little brother of Giacomo, the execrable 2005 Derby winner, with the same connections, he just won the Santa Anita Derby at 30-1, the first race in which he crossed the finish line in front. This late runner has clunk-up-for-a-share written all over him. Can't see him winning on May 5th though.

Cowtown Cat: Winner of the Illinois Derby, he's the third Todd Pletcher horse in this category. (Don't worry, there are more to come.) What's most notable is the fact his name is god-awful, despite him costing well over a million smackeroos at auction. If you think enough of a horse to pay a small fortune for him, can't you give him a real name?

One more to go, is it enough?

Street Sense: The Derby favorite if he wins the Blue Grass, he's trying to become the first BC Juvenile winner to win the Run for the Roses. He's also trying to become the first horse since Sunny's Halo (1983) to win the Derby with only two starts this year. That didn't work for Point Given; is it gonna work here? On the plus side, trainer Carl Nafzger screamed "I love you!" to Frances Genter (left) when they won the 1990 Derby with Unbridled, so clearly he knows how to kiss some old ass.

Great Hunter: He's also trying to do it off two starts, but in his defense, he ran 7 times last year, which is a ton this day in age. Looked great in winning the Lewis (which Tiago ran a well-beaten 7th in), have to think he's a top contender.

This never works, but what the hell...

Circular Quay: You could argue this is Pletcher's best horse, as with the exception of a time a horse fell in front of him, he's never run a clunker. Still, Todd's gone a bit off the reservation here by training him up to the Derby off an 8-week layoff. Tack that on to the fact that he's a stone closer, has only run twice this year (including the aforementioned race where he pulled up because of a spill) AND hasn't run 1 1/8 miles yet, and this goes from good shot to longshot.

Curlin: This guy's overcoming not only the curse of Apollo (last horse to win the Derby without starting as a two-year old, in the fricking Cleveland Administration), the Arkansas Derby (his prep) will he his third start. THIRD! That's insane! This horse is immensely talented, but I'm half hoping he throws in a relative clunker at Oaklawn to preserve him for the spring.

The sleeper

Dominican: A horse that nobody except for the wiseguys is talking about now (ok, I'm aware nobody is talking about horse racing now, but humor me), but may be on Sunday morning. He's immensely talented, showed great promise as a two-year-old finishing third in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and just won the Rushaway stakes race on the comeback trail after injury. His biggest questions are he may not love 1 1/4 miles (El Corredor?) and he may not have the graded stakes earnings to get him in the gate. But if he runs well on Saturday, his bandwagon's gonna be full.

Are we even going?

Hard Spun: He's undefeated when he's not running at Oaklawn, and the good news is the Kentucky Derby isn't at Oaklawn. The bad news is they're considering not running him anyway, and may point for the vaunted Lexington/Preakness double. Wow, that's ambitious.

Sightseeing: He ran 2nd to Nobiz Like Shobiz on Saturday, but has still only one won race, and Shug McGaughey seems inclined to pass on the Derby and point either for the Preakness or a summer campaign. While discretion is the better part of valor, it's worth noting that Jazil had an almost identical race record last year, and ran 4th in the Derby before winning the Belmont. (Of course, he hasn't done jackshit since then, but flags fly forever, or whatever the horse equivalent of a flag is.)

Chelokee: His 3rd in the Florida Derby was tremendous, as he was blocked by traffic in the stretch, costing him a least 2nd. The problem is while Mike Matz of Barbaro fame wants to run him in the Derby, his graded earnings aren't going to be enough if there are 20 horses. Bah.

We're running for third place!

Zanjero: Spanish for clunker. This guy's a great bet to hit the board at 50-1.

Sam P.: Pletcher's fifth-stringer who was blah in Santa Anita. Pass.

Deadly Dealer: Pletcher's sixth-stringer. He can be the next Coin Silver with some luck. Who's Coin Silver? Precisely.

Teufelsberg: Someone's got to set the pace in the Derby. My buddy does a last place pool for the big race, he's a first-round pick.

Officer Rocket: Every year Bob Holthus tries to suck us in with one of these Arkansas horses, and they never EVER do anything. Don't be fooled.


Coming up this Saturday are the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. By next week, we'll have a slightly different perspective on the above, but probably not that much different. At this point, to some degree, you are what you are.

Final Round of Derby Preps

We interrupt our scintillating fantasy baseball coverage to bring you, as expected, coverage and thoughts of this week's round of Derby Preps. Last week brought us the Florida Derby, where Scat Daddy replicated his Fountain of Youth win, and will now try to emulate the late Barbaro by winning the Derby off a 5-week layoff. Following him home was Notional, who ran a solid if unspectacular 2nd, and Chelokee, trained by Mike Matz (of Barbaro fame), who may not get into the Derby, as only the 20 horses with the most graded earnings make the cut, and he's only got $100k. Too bad, because some thought he was the best in the FD. Then again, some of us said the same thing about Sunday Break after the 2002 Wood, and he ran like dogshit in the Belmont that year. Anyway, enough about that, let's get to the three major Derby preps this weekend.

Wood Memorial: The best prep of the weekend, pairing Barclay Tagg (of Funny Cide fame) against the Todd Pletcher Juggernaut. Pletcher's loaded enough that he's sending Circular Quay into the Derby off a 8-week hiatus (dumb idea) and instead subbing in Any Given Saturday in this race. Good idea, because while Tagg's Nobiz Like Shobiz is the threat a lot of people think he might be, he's still behind Street Sense, and AGS needs the graded earnings as well. Other horses running range from the intriguing (Summer Doldrums) to the trifecta fodder (Sightseeing) to the hopeless (Flashstorm). As someone who thinks Any Given Saturday is going to get Pletcher off the Triple Crown schneid, I'll go with him in a close victory over NBB.

Illinois Derby: This was never on the "A" list of Derby preps, partially because it used to be held later in the year, and kinda still isn't, but War Emblem's 2002 Illinois-Kentucky Derby Double has made this into something of a real prep. Sweetnorthernsaint emerged from this race last year to be a surprising Derby favorite. Barring another performance like that, we're not gonna see anyone here that you'll be salivating about come May 5th.

Santa Anita Derby: Naysayers can claim Giacomo Forever all they want, but the California horses simply suck this year, especially once Ravel got hurt. So what have we got this year? One would normally look for a Jeff Mullins horse, as he's won this race repeatedly with bombs like Castledale and Buzzard's Bay, but he's sitting it out this year to work on his juice. Well, there's Tiago, who's a half to Giacomo, who's only the worst Derby winner of my lifetime. Sam P. and King of the Roxy both have the Pletcher factor going for them, but the former is unimpressive and the latter is bred to win sprints, so I'll have to pass. hasn't proven himself worthy of competing against the best. Liquidity isn't a Grade I horse. Neither are Level Red and Black Seventeen. I'll take a stab with Bwana Bull, who reminds me fleetingly of Event of the Year, as a NoCal stud who's been beating lesser.

Kentucky Derby Top Twelve

With only one or two prep races to go, here's this man's list of the Top Twelve Derby contenders. Given that Todd Pletcher & Doug O'Neill each have 6 legitimate contenders, perhaps they should just run a match race on the first Saturday in May.

1. Any Given Saturday. Pletcher's best hope, but you have to hope the Tampa Bay Derby didn't take too much out of him.

2. Great Hunter. O'Neill's best hope; the big knock on him is that he's only going to have 2 starts this year, a trick that's only worked once since 1943. Still, he has a solid foundation from last year with 7 races, so he's logical. His Robert Lewis was sublime.

3. Street Sense. This is the first Juvenile winner that's got a legit shot in the Kentucky Derby since Unbridled's Song in 1996. Sorry Wilko.

4. Circular Quay. Dead closer ran a big one last out, but you have to worry about him hitting severe traffic problems on the big day. For examples of this, see Victory Gallop, Medaglia d'Oro, Atswhatimtalkinabout, and any horse I've bet on since Real Quiet.

5. Notional. Now here's a horse that gets no credit whatsoever--his Risen Star win was written off as meh because Circular Quay almost fell in the process. He ran well, is well bred, and has super connections. What's not to like? Great horse to future at 20-1 or greater right now.

6. Nobiz Like Shobiz. Everyone's favorite, but I'm not buying. At some point, you have to improve between ages 2 and 3.

7. Scat Daddy. Well, he did win the Fountain of Youth, but they crawled home, and he's by Johannesburg. Pletcher's got plenty more that are interesting.

8. Ravel. He's immensely talented, but is going to hit the Derby with 4 career starts and only 2 starts this year. That. Never. Works. Future him for the Travers if you can.

9. Chelokee. Now here's a sleeper who hasn't won a stakes race yet. Gets a chance finally this weekend in the Lane's End. Cherokee Run shouldn't sire a Derby winner, but then again, neither should have Elusive Quality.

10. Hard Spun. Moves up with a good race in the Lane's End, moves off with a bad one.

11. Curlin. Immensely talented but he's run twice. TWICE!

12. Cobalt Blue. Whipping Grapelli in the San Felipe does not make a great horse.