The World's Oldest Maiden

Teddy & I had hoped to do something special for post #100 of the Gazette, but we're both to self-absorbed and wrapped up in work to put anything cohesive together at the moment. Maybe we'll do it for #101. Because this is too good a nugget to let go by:

Belated debut for 10-year-old

This is not an article on Shawn Kemp's 23rd son, this is a horse that's running for the first time when he's ten years old. TEN! For those not familiar with the normal life progress/schedule of a race horse, here's a brief synopsis of the typical development of a horse:

2 years old: Precocious horses start making their debuts in April, many others debut this year.
3 years old: Many more debut this year, others run in Triple Crown races. By September, the best are considered good enough to compete against "older" horses. Any 3yo that's any good is retired after this year (see Street Sense).
4-5 years old: Peak years of athleticism, maturity and fitness for a horse.
6-7 years old: Declining years for a horse. If you're still running at this point, you either aren't very good, or are gelded and have no stud value.
8 years old: The Tom Glavines of racing.
9 years old: The Charlie Houghs of racing.
10 years old: The Julio Francos of racing.
11+ years old: The Satchel Paiges of racing.

So starting a horse this old for the first time is even more far-fetched than Dennis Quaid getting a shot in the big leagues. It's just utterly ridiculous. And what the hell could keep a horse from running for so long?

Perez said he had heard a litany of ailments that delayed Sovereign Sigh's first start: sickness at 3, bucked shins at 4, this, that, and the other thing. "But once you get them over that hump, you're good to go," said [trainer] Perez.

This that and the other thing clearly lead to keeping a horse off the track for a quarter of his natural life. Well, after 8+ years to prepare, he should be ready to go, right?

"This horse can run, but I wish I had one more work in him," he said.

Ah. Maybe not. If you're at Hawthorne on Friday, bet against, as Zippy Chippy is not in his race.

Where We Stand on the Breeders Cup

With the last round of real preps over, we're now 3 weeks away from the Extreme Racing Extravaganza known as the Breeders Cup. What's the you say? The Breeders Cup is a 2-day carnival of racing with eleven, count 'em, eleven races on varying surfaces, differing distances, and for different sexes and ages to determine championships. (It used to be 8 races, but they added three this year for kicks.) It goes without saying that we'll be doing a full preview down the road before the October 26-27 races at Monmouth Park, but where do we stand after this past weekend? Here's a quick look at the 11 races.

Classic: The pinnacle of the day, a 1 1/4 mile race on the dirt (same as the Kentucky Derby) for 3 year olds and up with a $5 million purse. Unlike in previous years, it looks like we're going to have the full compliment of important horses from this year. Derby and Preakness winners Street Sense and Curlin are pointing for this race, as is Derby runner-up Hard Spun and second-season star Any Given Saturday. (For what it's worth, these were three of the horses I loved in the Derby.) From the older set is Lawyer Ron, who is still unproven at 10 furlongs. In the fun longshot category, maybe we'll see European shipper Asiatic Boy come over and try to reverse his hideous grass form with a return to the dirt, on which he romped in Dubai back in March.

Turf: Europe's most prestigious race, the Prix d' Arc d' Triomphe, was held yesterday, won by Dylan Thomas, who may be coming stateside for the turf marathon. If he comes, he'll be 3-5 to establish himself as the best turf horse in the world. If he doesn't, then we're looking at a fun and open affair with zero appealing horses from the US and whatever else decides to make the journey across the Atlantic.

Distaff: The central race for the ladies, this race has become wide-open with the season ending injury to Rags to Riches and the defection of Nashoba's Key to the Filly & Mare Turf. The Pletcher pair of Panty Raid and Octave will get a ton of support, as with Lear's Princess, who vanquished Rags to Riches in her last, but keep your eyes open for Balance, who should relish returning to a 2-turn dirt race, Lady Joanne, winner of the prestigious Alabama, and Miss Shop, Alan Jerkens' best hope for his first BC win.

Filly & Mare Turf: The other big race on Saturday for the older fillies, this one will be centered around undefeated California sensation Nashoba's Key trying to 8-for-8 for her career, and mount an outsider's chance at the Horse of the Year crown. There's painfully little stateside that's looked close to her in terms of ability, as Wait a While has failed to follow up on her Eclipse winning three year old season and strong fillies Vacare, My Typhoon and Citronnade seem to lack the stoutness required for this 11 furlong affair. Sleeper: look to see if Flower Bowl upset winner Lahudood can make it two in a row for Kiaran McLaughlin.

Sprint: Fabulous Strike has all the fun stuff going for him--speed, record, and a trainer/connections that ESPN will love. So why am I dubious of him? Maybe it's because Greg's Gold in California should've won his race yesterday, or Mach Ride is a pair of good gate breaks from a fantastic year. A messy affair without a standout. And that's partially because...

Dirt Mile: ...the Breeders Cup has added a one-mile dirt race, which is going to siphon off horses like High Finance, Midnight Lute and Discreet Cat, who would otherwise try to get 6 furlongs, and instead are in this slightly longer distance. They'll get 80% of the action, but you're crazy if you overlook the rapidly improving Daaher. Speaking of things that are killing the BC Sprint, we have....

Filly Sprint: ...the second new Breeders Cup race, which is a sprint only for the gals. If Dream Rush and La Traviata run here, it'll be the most interesting duel of the day, but if the latter goes to fight the boys (for twice the dough), it'll take a rocket up Wild Gams' ass to get her to the front.

Mile: Always the most indecipherable race of the day, this edition will have the once-defeated Shakespeare at a short price against a ton of interesting Euros and Americans. Keep your eye on Shakis, who may improve off his tough start at Keeneland, a la Miesque's Approval last year.

Juvenile: We've failed to have a single 2yo colt look remotely impressive this year on the dirt. This race looks boring.

Juvenile Fillies: The only 2yo gal that's looked good so far has been Indian Blessing, and she's overrated. This race looks even more boring. Which leaves us with...

Juvenile Turf: A fascinating third new race for this year, which pits the youngins' on the grass, an area that gets absolutely no attention in the United States. Hell, if they had this race 2 years ago, Barbaro would have been the favorite. The lack of anything resembling prep races or a cohesive schedule in this field is going to lead to an eclectic field of Euros (Rio de Plata?), dirt converts (The Leopard) and blowout maiden winners (Prussian). Nobody knows what the hell to do with this race. Which probably makes it the best betting competition of the weekend.

We'll have a fuller set of previews in 2 weeks, but suffice to say, analyzing 125 horses this year ain't gonna be easy. Get your pencils and bankrolls ready.

Belmont Gets a Good Saturday

We last talked about racing here in early June, where yours truly kvetched that the Belmont sucked because Street Sense was passing on the race to point for the Travers. Since that post, we actually got a pretty good race in super filly Rags to Riches outdueling Curlin, and Street Sense returning with a pair of wins at Saratoga, the latter in the Travers over a stubborn Grasshopper. But we'll get to him at a later date.

We're now back at Belmont for the Fall Championship Meet, which used to be of titanic significance, and is now stuff laden with good races, but they're mostly preps for the Breeders' Cup. Still, occasionally, you get a day like tomorrow, where there's a few interesting horses running. Let's note the top 5, in reverse order.

#5: The Leopard. This multi-million dollar purchase isn't even the most expensive horse running on the card, but he may be the fastest. He goes in the Futurity against...

#4: Kodiak Kowboy...the poorly spelled colt out of Posse, with the winner likely being one of the favorites in next month's Breeders Cup Juvenile, the championship race for 2 year old colts. Here, we have the question of potential versus production. Kodiak Kowboy is out of top-notch trainer Steve Asmussen (of Curlin fame), and has done nothing but win consistently to date. The Leopard was an expensive purchase in the Pletcher barn who's got speed but has only won 1 of his 2 races to date (over a horse that flopped at 1-5 last Wednesday). And more importantly, they both have sucky names. As I've noted repeteadly, I am firmly anti-crappy names for horses, and refuse to even admit that Lil E. Tee ran in the '93 Derby. So if people try to convince you that these guys are the end-all-and-be-all, don't buy it. Take a stab with Paint instead, who will be a price.

#3: Lear's Princess. If you're going to ever take a hunch bet, this would be the time to do it, as betting Goneril's namesake while Sir Ian McKellen is performing at BAM makes just too much sense. Sadly, this horse is good, not great, and she's going against...

#2: Rags to Riches. Her last start was the Belmont Stakes, where she became the first filly since 1903 to take the classic, and instantly catapult her to something resembling stardom, all whilst getting Todd Pletcher off the schneid in Triple Crown races. Why hasn't she run since? Bad luck and infirmities, ranging from a cough to a fever to some gimpiness, it just hasn't been a good summer for her. But now she's back, and is working on Grade 1 win #5 here. A win here and in the Breeders Cup Distaff vaults her squarely into Horse of the Year talk.

So how is the defending Belmont champion (who was also the first filly to win in >100 years) not the most interesting horse running? Easy, because also on Saturday's card is...

#1: The Green Monkey. For those not innundated in racing every day, this name won't be familiar to you, but here's why this is the most notoroious horse to have never run a race. Last year at a sale for 2-year old horses, he cost $16 million. Let's try that again. SIXTEEEN MILLION dollars. And has yet to run a race. For the same price, Michael Tabor could have bought 20,000 bearded collies and gotten a better performance, not to mention a lot more laughs. Instead, we have The Green Monkey, who I'd dock severely for having a stupid name, but the golf course and resort are on such a high level that it gets a pass with me. He's going to be even money in the 4th race against 5 horses that cost under a million dollars combined. Karma and Murphy's Law both indicate this horse is going to flop, right?

Why This Year's Belmont is Boring

If you haven't heard yet (i.e., if you're not one of horse racing's 34 fans that knows what a blog is), Street Sense, the Derby winner, is passing on the third jewel of the Triple Crown, next Saturday's Belmont Stakes. Is he hurt? Nope. Is he tired? Also nope. So what's the reason? The connections feel like waiting for the Travers, a race in August.

[Trainer Carl] Nafzger said Street Sense was in good shape physically. He worked an easy half-mile at Churchill Downs on Wednesday.

"He's ready to go," Nafzger said. "I'd never use that as an excuse."

By stopping now, Nafzger said he believes he can get Street Sense back to the races quicker this summer than if he were to go to the Belmont.

"He could give 110 percent in the Belmont, but could he come back and give 110 percent in the Travers, and still be on a campaign to give 110 percent in the Breeders' Cup?" Nafzger said. "It's like a running back. You need some time off. You get tired of putting pads on every day and running wind sprints.

Is this the right decision? I'm not going to go all Bill Finley (the Steve Rushin of racing) on you and lament the fact that the Belmont's now "just another race" for the general public. The idea that the Curlin-Street Sense "rivalry" was going to bump up attendance in Elmont by 30,000 and 3 Nielsen points is insane--if there's no Triple Crown on the line, the casual fan's just not going to be interested, and it'll get the usual perfunctory ratings. And if it's a nice day, the locals will show up, no matter who's running in the big race. The notion that this is putting racing behind the 8-ball is totally unfounded; racing is shooting itself in the foot about 390 other ways ahead of Carl Nafzger's decision.

No, the real question is whether or not Nafzger is doing good by his horse. Steve Crist makes an excellent case in the Daily Racing Form that Nafzger knows from his earlier experiences with Unbridled how to leave something in the tank for the big races later in the year, and Street Sense will have to be at his peak to beat Invasor, who's arguably the best older horse we've seen in the U.S. since Silver Charm. Maybe it's a good idea to skip an anachronistically long race in June to freshen up your horse and point for the fall classics, right?

Sound as this logic seems, I have to disagree. If you've got a healthy horse here and now, and there's a historic race to run...you run him, and take on all challengers. Defeating Curlin in the Belmont would almost wrap up the division title for Street Sense, at which time he can rest with a 2-prep comeback for the Breeders Cup. To forego a spot where he'd be a prohibitive favorite to try to win the Travers is ludicrous; the Travers is the oldest race in America, and still means something if you're a Saratoga person, but the Belmont is bigger--it's the Triple Crown! Mr. Carl, I think you're doing the wrong thing here. And in the process, you've killed the Belmont from a wagering standpoint, which frankly, is more inexcusable than anything else.

So what's left for next Saturday? Well, Curlin is running, and will be a stiff favorite to make it two in a row for the classics and to take a huge lead in the race for the prestigious Eclipse Award. Hard Spun's coming back in what may be his final race before his stud plans are finalized, but it's hard to see this out of control speedball gutting it out for an additional quarter of a mile. Tiago and I'mawildandcrazyguy come back after skipping the Preakness leg, both stone closers in a race that appears to be bereft of speed. Todd Pletcher's either going to run his boy (Circular Quay) or his girl (Rags to Riches) and either will be immensely overbet relative to their chances in the race. That leaves the improving Slew's Tizzy as an interesting longshot, and as of now, you have to think the Curlin-Slew's Tizzy exacta may be the way to go.

Of course, there's a great chance some trainers will see a $1 million purse up for grabs, realize you get $100k for running third, and enter some hopeless longshots for kicks anyway. But barring someone intrguing like Sightseeing, Chelokee or Street Magician being pointed for the race at the eleventh hour, suffice to say that while the Belmont is still a classic race, it'll be the least interesting race on the day at Belmont. Too bad.

Preakness Preview

Saturday brings us the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown, brought to you from Pimlico Race Course in Maryland. A couple of key differences between the two races: while the Derby was 1 1/4 miles, the Preakness shortens up to 1 3/16 miles, thanks to the goofy configuration of Pimlico. Additionally, while they get a good crowd at the Preakness (100,000+), it's not quite as much a madhouse as the Derby. Unless you're in the infield, where you'll see more unflattering topless UM co-eds than you ever knew existed.

As the middle leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness has always been something of the ugly stepchild of the 3 year old trilogy. It's not at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles, and isn't the "Test of Champions", it's instead more analogous to a pit stop on the way from horse capital Kentucky to New York. It obviously doesn't get as strong a field as the Derby (though few races do), and while it's more formful as a result of the smaller fields, it's also a bit less exciting in that you're unlikely to see a bomb win the race like Giacomo or Charismatic. And even winning the race, while a tremendous accomplishment, borders on anticlimactic--either you've foiled a Triple Crown bid, or you've cleared a necessary hurdle en route to the real test in the Belmont.

Further making the Preakness something of the Fredo Corleone of the Triple Crown family is the fact that trainers now routinely skip the race to point for the Belmont, rather than run back on 2 weeks rest after the Derby. Indeed, to some level, you have to ask whether the Preakness has become a racing anachronism by its goofy timing. This was once heresy, as horses used to never win the Belmont without running in the Preakness or another horse within 2-3 weeks of the Belmont. But we've seen this broken numerous times in recent years, with Commendable, Empire Maker, Birdstone and Jazil all pulling the trick of skipping the Preakness and pointing for the Belmont victoriously. By contrast, this century we've only seen Point Given and Afleet Alex pull the Preakness-Belmont double after losing the Derby. (This fact is also reflected in the fact we've seen Bernardini and Red Bullet win the Preakness without competing in the Derby, something that hadn't occurred since Tank's Prospect in 1983.) As a result, instead of seeing races full of Derby horses taking another shot, we've gotten multiple incarnations of second-string 3 year olds taking on the leviathans from the Derby, with blow-out results--ignoring the Barbaro fiasco last year, the last 3 Preaknesses were all romps.

Then, of course, there's the 800 pound gorilla in the room, namely, the dying financial viability of Maryland racing in general and Pimlico specifically, which is always the subject of a cranky article by Plagarizing Andy Beyer every Preakness week. Pimlico, on its best day, is one of the ugliest sports facilities known to mankind, below the level of Olympic Stadium and a bowling alley in Camden. It's a money pit to the state 364 days of the year, with Preakness day and its 100,000 denizens being the only saving grace to the state's racing year. Compounding the problem is that while all the neighboring states (Delaware, West Virginia, and now Pennsylvania) have slot machines churning money that goes right back into purses, and thus gets the better horses and fuller fields, Maryland's stymied in a non-slots world, a death sentence if you're a track outside of New York, Kentucky and Florida. With the track decaying, and a once proud racing state now approaching financial brinkmanship at the track, there have been rumors the Preakness may get moved to somewhere else in the future. I'll believe it when I see it (i.e., when Magna racing cuts its losses in Maryland), but to say it's a precarious position is putting it nicely.

Regardless, we're confronted with the fact that Street Sense is two victories away from the Triple Crown. Who's in this race and what are their chances? Let's go in reverse order of preference, once again.

We're Just Happy to Be Here

#9: Mint Slewlep. On the Preakness undercard in 1999, a depressed and suicidal patron jumped onto the racetrack and stood in the path of Artax on the hope that he'd mow him down. As a result, Artax pulled up and lost the race to Yes It's True. We'll need about a dozen drunken Terrapins or the Stanford band to pull off a similar stunt here to give this guy a shot.

#8: Xchanger. The upside on this guy is that he's won on the track, with a win in the Federico Tesio 4 weeks ago, which has produced the occasional board hitter like Magic Weisner (2002) and the aforementioned Tank's Prospect. Unfortunately, it's also produced execrable commodities like Malibu Moonshine and Ah Day. This guy looks like a pure pace factor (in a race laden with early speed) and really isn't that fast, and you have to expect he'll be running in the wrong direction by the far turn.

#7: Flying First Class. You want to like this horse because he's popped a triple digit Gowanus Speed Figure and has D. Wayne Lukas in his corner. Then you back up and realize that he's also early speed in a race full of front runners, Lukas hasn't done shit in years, and that he's run nothing shy of horribly in both his route races. This really is a poor spot for him to run, he should be sprinting. Can we future him to win the King's Bishop?

Exotics Fodder, Potentially

#6: King of the Roxy. The second horse Todd Pletcher has ever run in the Preakness, with the first being the plodder Impeachment in 2000, who clunked up for a distant third. He's going to get a ton of action because of the Pletcher factor and because he ran 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, but he's also really a sprinter trying to sneak off with a route race. It's very VERY telling that Pletcher & Team Valor, both players who spot their horses smartly yet aggressively gave the Derby absolutely no consideration either before or after the Santa Anita Derby, and instead are trying to steal a consolation prize in a weaker race. He'll be horrendously underlaid, and while he could hit 3rd if the race falls apart, I don't believe he's remotely relevant in this race.

#5: C P West. Named for Central Park West, Nick Zito sat out this year's Derby to bring the Withers runner-up to this spot instead, and somewhat wisely so, as this guy hasn't had enough of a 3yo campaign to have made him Derby ready. He was a hyped two-year old that still hasn't developed, but he's very VERY eligible to improve in his third start of the year. He also exits the Withers, which has produced Bernardini (winner, 2006) and Scrappy T (runner-up, 2005) in the last couple of years. Can't see him winning. Can see him improving for a trifecta finish.

The Sucker Horse

#4: Hard Spun. He gets ranked above the others because unlike those hopeless causes, he actually has a shot to win this race, but no, I'm not coming within 30 miles of him. I thank him and Larry Jones for running well in the Derby and giving me the exacta, but this is where I bid them adieu. I'm not the first person to notice this parallel, but I draw you back to 2003 and 2004, where good speed horses in Peace Rules and Lion Hearted, respectively, ran great 3rds and 2nds in the Derby, and everyone thought the cut-back in distance would help them. Right? Nope. Both of them were nowhere to be found when the finish line arrived, finishing over a dozen lengths behind the winners, not to mention their defeats to luminaries such as Scrimshaw and Eddington. History repeats itself here; this guy runs with the longshots up front, then begins to back up at the top of the turn and finishes well out of the money. The good news? He'll be about 3-1 with everyone and their brother playing the "shortening up" angle and operating under the misguided notion that Pimlico favors front runners (it doesn't), putting a ton of free money in the pot for the rest of us.

Actual Contenders

#3: Street Sense. Um....didn't this guy just win the Derby? Well, yes. There's obviously a ton to like, not the least of which is his breeding, his speed, and the fact he's been expertly trained to date. Yet, I can't get past the sneaking suspicion that this is the racing equivalent of a "trap game" for this horse. Putting aside the large reservations that I have that he's clearly a Churchill Downs freak (which may or may not translate elsewhere) and that he got a clean and ground-saving trip in the Derby, there are two bigger, nagging issues here. First, Carl Nafzger has freely admitted that he single-mindedly prepared Street Sense for the Derby, and gave essentially no thought whatsoever to what came after. I don't love that; I can't fault Nafzger for pointing for Derby immortality, but it's worth noting that Unbridled in 1990 flopped in the Preakness after this stellar Derby. Second, and more importantly, something that hasn't been much discussed is the distinct possibility that there was a severe rail bias on Derby Day. Consider that not only did Street Sense rally up the rail, but also that Hard Spun held clear after torrid fractions and longshot Sedgefield ran a huge race while also taking the golden rail. Maybe the three of them were riding a bias to the nth degree (something the earlier dirt races don't disprove). If so, he's a prime candidate to regress.

I freely admit that I play the contrarian more often than not in picking races, but this is a time where I think it's somewhat justified. He's a hideous play at even money, and while he may put a huge effort up on Saturday, he won't be my pick to repeat. A much more interesting idea, though, is...

#2: Circular Quay. I'm borderline shocked that this horse is running in the Preakness, as he & King of the Roxy will be the 2nd and 3rd horses Pletcher has saddled in this race, after the immortal Impeachment clunked up for third in 2000. Pletcher generally doesn't love to run back horses on short rest (not the case with King of the Roxy, who's been dormant for 6 weeks), which makes the idea of running this guy even more intriguing, as clearly blood is smelled by the nation's best trainer. Let's also look at the fact that this guy ran fairly well off an 8-week layoff in the Derby, when he changed paths about 7 times and took the overland route to a better-than-it-looked 6th place finish. Now, it'd be folly to argue that the Derby was a prep for the Preakness, but it certainly may have been a tightener for a horse that needs it. The downside? I still don't love that this horse hasn't had any success at 1 1/8 miles, and his best stakes win was a 7 furlong sprint at Saratoga last year. But the pace looks to be strong, and he'll be flying late. Prime contender, to say the least.

The Winner

#1: Curlin. Unlike Circular Quay and to some degree Street Sense, I don't think we've seen this horse's best, and his 3rd place finish in the Derby (which I called extremely unlikely, proving my accumen) was a very, very good effort for a horse making his 4th start. I like him to improve even more here, sitting a better trip than he did last out (when his post hurt him tremendously) off a torrid pace and getting first run on the closers, who will have to wear him down. Like Circular Quay, I also think the Derby was a great effort to get some fitness into the horse; witness the fact he's only had a slow maintenence work since then to keep him on his toes. This is the race he moves forward and establishes himself as the co-top horse of the class with Street Sense.

The Picks

1st: Curlin
2nd: Circular Quay
3rd: Street Sense
4th: C P West

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the races!

Sunday Special

We'll have the long-overdue TA up tomorrow unless Teddy or I get eaten by locusts while slaving away at senseless briefs. But first, three things.

(1) WE ARE THE GREATEST HANDICAPPERS IN THE WORLD!!!!!!!! GO STREET SENSE!!!!

(2) We'll only do one preview of the Preakness come next Thursday or Friday, but early reports are that we'll have five runners from the Derby go on to Maryland: Street Sense (duh), Hard Spun (2nd place), Curlin, (3rd), Sedgefield (5th) and Teufelsberg (17th). Six or seven new shooters should be joining them, so let's give an early warm welcome to Chelokee, Xchanger, C P West, King of the Roxy, Slew's Tizzy, Flying First Class and Starbase. More to come next week on why I think Hard Spun is a horrendous bet in the Preakness, why Todd Pletcher really shouldn't be upset, who from that new group of horses you should be looking at (hello Chelokee & CP West!) and how Street Sense could lose.

(3) I want real opinions from Yankee fans on them bringing back Fatso today. (No, Mike Francesa will not be taking the Don Zimmer consigliere role, though frankly, that would be awesome.) My wife has declared she may never root for the Yankees again. My brother may have officially peed in his pants with delight. Personally, as a Met fan/Yankee hater, I'm elated that they've now gone beyond selling their soul to the devil and have sold it to Dick Cheney. So really, Alex & Co., what say ye?

TA truly coming tomorrow, and also to follow this week, our semi-regularly State of the League updates. Now, on with what you weren't doing.

Kentucky Derby Preview Part III: The Contenders, The Exotic Fodder, and The Winner

As I'm publishing this on Friday morning/afternoon, there's little to no chance that unlike my first posting, Andy Beyer will try to plagarize the insightful and pithy comments I have to offer here. Well, presumably. Maybe I should write a race recap now, and see if that gets picked up by the Washington Post as well. Then again, in years past that would have meant seeing results charts in the Derby with the likes of Point Determined, Bandini, Borrego, Ten Most Wanted, Private Emblem and Vicar on top. So maybe that's not the best idea.

But to address the one question I've gotten repeatedly this week first---what's it like to be at the Kentucky Derby? Well, it's a combination of Mardi Gras and a formal outdoor garden party. Sitting in the same row, you'll have yuppies in golf shirts, crazies in beer-soaked t-shirts, and sophisticates in their best dresses. And the hats are wild. And there's the random celebrity sightings that just add a bit to it: not only will the racing afficianado love seeing Mr. & Mrs. Baffert randomly strolling about with binoculars (though not this year since they have no runners), you'll also random see Kirsten Dunst sneaking in a smoke sans makeup or Michael Imperioli trying to compute a trifecta ticket. It's truly one of the great experiences of Americana, and must be attended by all. WITH a mint julep, a drink that unfairly gets a bad rap. (If you like slurpees & bourbon, you're all set.)

We now come to the top half of the Derby field, horses that certainly have a shot to win on Saturday, though obviously, that's not gonna be the case for 9 of them. Let's start with those horses that have a shot, but really aren't all that interesting when analyzed.

Unexcititing & Ultimately Harmless

#10: Scat Daddy. The fantastically named son of Johannesburg exits a gutty win in the Florida Derby to come as Todd Pletcher's main charge. Say what you will about this guy (and I will), but he fights with the best of them in races. The problem? Well, outside of the fact his breeding doesn't scream for that 10th furlong, it's that he's plateaued in speed figures. He was already looking strong last July, and you somehow feel like you've already seen his best. He's reminiscent of horses we see every year that have nice resumes, but are just wholly unexciting and somehow indicate to you they're not gonna do it on the big day (examples being Brother Derek in '06, High Fly '05, Peace Rules '03). Looks to me like a middle of the pack finish is going to be capped off by a long rest and a bid at the Haskell.

#9: Nobiz Like Shobiz. He and Scat Daddy are pretty inseparable at the end of the day. There's not really a ton to criticize here either, outside of his utter failure to improve at all from a Beyer, er, Gowanus Speed Figure standpoint. It's amazing, if the general public wasn't armed with speed figures, these two guys would probably be the favorites from their outstanding records and nice wins in prep races. Instead? The world, myself included, is focused a bit more on others.

The Wildcard

#8: Dominican. Here's the horse that's the toughest to decipher in the field by far. He's undefeated on Polytrack, a faux-dirt surface that's almost more comparable to grass than dirt. He's winless on dirt, by contrast, though his efforts haven't been poor. And he's 2-for-2 this year, meaning he's up against it in terms of being shy a prep race, but he did win the Blue Grass. So what's happened? There's three possibilities: (1) He's a Polytrack freak; (2) He grew into himself; or (3) He's thriving because his owners cut off his undescended testicle. No, that's not a joke.

In his last start as a juvenile, Dominican, who is a son of El Corredor, ran third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) behind Tiz Wonderful and Any Given Saturday for owners Bonnie and Tommy Hamilton's Silverton Hill. After the race he received a layoff and was gelded.

"It was a tough decision to make, but he was a ridgling and he was uncomfortable so we needed to do so," trainer Darrin Miller said. "It was a matter of physical comfort. He is a very aggressive horse and that hasn't changed."

Well then. Whatever works, right? As imitation of what's worked before is the norm in horse racing, I weep for the fate of male horse genitalia should Dominican win.

For Exotic Purposes Only

#7: Circular Quay. He's up against it on a lot of fronts. He's a dead closer who hasn't run in 8 weeks by design, has only had 2 races, and has yet to go 9 furlongs, let alone 10. On the positive side, he's pretty quick, he's talented, he's got The Pletcher Factor on his side, his breeding and running style suggest he'll like the distance, and . Split the difference--I see him flying late but ultimately falling short. Tough to leave out of your triples and superfectas.

#6: Zanjero. Often a bridesmaid, never the bride. He's a well-bred closer that has a propensity for running evenly and finishing in the money, with minimal threat to the winners. Hell, he's now done this four times in a row, and it's quite possible that he'll do it once again on Saturday. So why this ranking? Well, he's gaining something of "wise-guy" status amongst the horse racing cognoscenti (whoever the hell that encompasses), and I'm of the impression that he's going to be a lot closer to 20-1 than 40-1, despite him having minimal actual chance at winning. A must use "underneath", but not the price play you'd think he should be for a horse that's only broken his maiden. No, the price play to hit the board is...

#5: Liquidity. While picking the winner is obviously key to making money on Derby day, equally key is finding a well-priced horse to come in the money underneath. A good way to do it? Find a horse that was well-backed last out, flopped (preferably with an excuse) and back him if there's a fair reason to do so. Horses fitting this mold include Bluegrass Cat in '06 (2nd at 33-1); Atswhatimtalkinabout in '03 (4th at ~20-1); and Invisible Ink in '01 (2nd at 55-1). Because there are so many horses of quality in the race, the Derby is a great shot to find a talented horse at a square price. So what makes Liquidity the answer? As the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby, he's shipped and run well, has tactical speed in a race that has less pace than you'd normally expect, and is nicely bred. Yeah, his last race stunk, but he'll be at least 40-1 on Saturday. A great fodder piece for your exotics.

#4: Tiago. Giacomo's baby brother who rallies well and is reminiscent of his sibling with his closing style and connections. And since I have nothing else to add about a relative of the worst Derby winner....let's here it for the Queen of England coming to Kentucky this year! She kicked off her trip to the US with a stop in Jamestown to celebrate its 400th birthday, presumably forgetting that we spent the first 180 years trying to get rid of the throne at all costs. And while the good Queen does admire the Sport of Kings, it's just too bad the Queen Mum isn't around anymore, because she was the true racing fan in the family.

Top Challengers

#3: Hard Spun. Dammit. If this guy were trained by someone I trusted and ridden by a jockey I actually thought was any good, he'd probably be my top pick at a fair price. He's extremely well bred for the distance, fast enough, has only one blemish in a weird race in Arkansas, and had a strong prep last out. His form negatives are really only the fact he hasn't run in 6 weeks....which brings me to Larry Jones. Originally the plan was to have him skip the Derby and point for the Preakness becaues they thought he may not like the track at Churchill, which is utterly bizzare. Then they gave him a workout on the track about 3 weeks ago, where he did well, and thus course was changed, and into the Derby we go.....off an unplanned 6-week layoff. To top it off, his jockey, Mario Pino, is best known for winning the Federico Tesio stakes in three consecutive years. Yeah, exactly. And lastly, Jones decided to run him insanely fast in a work out last week that probably knocked the crap out of him. I want to like him. Really, I do. But I think he's been mismanaged to the point where he may not have it on Saturday. Too bad, because he's a good one.

#2: Any Given Saturday. We now come to Todd Pletcher's 5th and final horse. Has to be a record right? Nobody's started five horses in the Derby before, have they? Well...it's actually happened twice. Pletcher's mentor D. Wayne Lukas started 5 in 1996, and one of his least heralded, Grindstone, nosed out Cavonnier for the win. Then, in 2005, Principal McVicker sound-alike Nick Zito brought a quintet to Churchill, but couldn't muster a finish better than 7th. I'll split the difference here and give the runner up spot to a horse that seems to hang and not be able to close the deal for the win repatedly. He's plenty fast, and should be cycling to a big effort off a "regression" in the Wood last out after a nose loss in the Tampa Bay Derby. Pletcher's been pointing for this with this horse since he lost to Tiz Wonderful last November, and I gotta think he's gonna have him cranked and ready to go. Small downside---EVERYONE likes this horse as their "sleeper". We'll be lucky to get 10-1 on him.

The Champion

#1: Street Sense. This guy has two historical negatives against him, the first one being the Juvenile Jinx, which I find silly, as we're looking at a sample size too small to be meaningful. It's the fact he's only run twice this year that's disturbing. But taking a step back, let's look at the horse's record for a minute. He's won his last three races on dirt tracks not covered in water. His two Polytrack efforts were both solid if unspectacular. He has a great turn of foot, and while he won't be on the pace, he won't be 30 lengths back either. His traine is tremendous. And most importantly, he's just the fastest horse in the face. His speed figures are only approached by Curlin, who I think is too green for this, and Any Given Saturday, who's also a sensible choice. But while the 2 starts this year is a small problem, I think it's more than offset by his good foundation as a 2-year old (5 races) and his repeated efforts at route distances. I think the curse ends on Saturday, and we're all complaining that we overthought this at about 7 pm.

The Play

If you're betting under $10 in the race, I suggest you stick to win bets---the favorite's either going to be Curlin or Street Sense, and neither will be below 5-2. There's nothing wrong with tripling your money if you're right. My play? I'm "keying" Street Sense & Any Given Saturday over the 5 horses below them on this vaunted list. And to make the picks official:

1. Street Sense
2. Any Given Saturday
3. Tiago
4. Dominican

Enjoy the race!

[Hey, anyone know who won the race? Wait, what? Street Sense won? Who guessed that? Oh, wait, Ang did. Point GRBG.--Teddy]