2016 Breeders Cup Preview Part 2: Saturday's Races

Nine races to preview, let's get to it:

Juvenile Fillies

Synopsis: 1 1/16 miles for 2 year old girls on the dirt.  As always, we recommend that you either go with the chalk or a bomb in this race.  Picking a horse between 8-1 and 20-1 to win has been a disastrous proposition. Fortunately, the lowest price on the morning line is 9-2 and over half the field is below 12-1.

Favorite: It's a little unclear who's going to go off the favorite in this race, but we'll take a guess it'll be Noted and Quoted, who won the local prep (the Chandelier Stakes) in her last.  She's trained by Bob Baffert and has nice tactical speed.  That said, she doesn't hold much of an edge over the rest of the field.

Price Horse to Consider: Sweet Loretta is 6-1 on the morning line but we expect a higher price than that - she hasn't been out in 2 months, dead-heated in her last, and hasn't run particularly fast.  Whatever.  She's trained by Pletcher, cost a fortune at auction and is perfectly bred for this type of race.  If Todd's got her ready to run, she's dangerous.

Betting Approach:  Spread.  This race was a lot easier years ago when the runners actually had run a bunch of times and we could assess their form.  Here, the 12 entrants have run a total of 34 times - less than 3 starts per runner on average.  It's a lot of guesswork.

Selections: Let's do a little process of elimination.  We don't buy Jamyson n' Ginger repeating her gigantic speed figure when it's a fast track, and also don't like Rudy Rodriguez shipping cross-country (so we'll also toss Colorful Charades).  Union Strike's had 2 good starts but has a new trainer because the owner fired the prior trainer - who was also his daughter! - and replaced her with Craig Dollase, who stinks.  We don't love American Gal stretching out in the 12 post.  And Dancing Rags, Daddy's Lil Darling, Champagne Room and With Honors all look too slow.  We'll side with Yellow Agate on the improve and otherwise just cross our fingers.

1.  Yellow Agate
2.  Noted and Quoted
3.  Sweet Loretta

Filly and Mare Turf

Synopsis:1 1/4 miles on the turf for fillies and mares.  This race has developed into one of our favorites over time because it's had a mixture of everything: Hall of Famers, complete shockers, memorable performances and great stories.  Speaking of which...

Favorite: Lady Eli is going to be the focus of 800 soft-focus tales this week, and it's a great story.  She won the Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2014 over this same track, looking like an absolute star.  She confirmed that her three year old year, winning her next three races with aplomb, and people were talking Eclipse Award for her (which would be unusual - turf horses never win the 3 year old Eclipse Awards).  Less than a week after her big Belmont Oaks victory, she stepped on a nail, contracted laminitis and nearly died.  Trainer Chad Brown took a year and nursed her back to health, and she came back to the races in August, losing her comeback in Saratoga by a head but winning the Flower Bowl in her last.  The fact she's alive is amazing; the fact that she has won a Grade 1 this year is insane.

Price Horse to Consider:  Sentiero Italia is about as hard-knocking a horse as you'll get.  She has good tactical speed, consistently runs a solid race, and is always near the front at the end.  We don't think she's good enough to win this race, but don't toss her from your exactas and trifectas.  If you want a total bomb, Japanese shipper Nuovo Record was running fabulously last year, but is not in the best form this year.  If she somehow reverts to her 2015 self, look out.

Betting Approach: Somewhat narrow.  We think only 4 horses have a legitimate shot at winning this race.

Selections:There should be a TON of speed in this race, including Catch a Glimpse (who won the Juvenile Fillies Turf last year), Pretty Perfect (who is basically a rabbit), Avenge, and Zipessa.  We think this sets up for a closer, and while we think Lady Eli has a shot, we're more interested in her stablemate, Sea Calisi, who had no shot in the paceless Flower Bowl.  We think she improves off that effort and mows down her stablemate in the stretch while holding off European imports Seventh Heaven and Queen's Trust, both of which have big shots as well.

1.  Sea Calisi
2.  Queen's Trust
3.  Seventh Heaven

Sprint

Synopsis: 6 furlongs on the dirt for the brave and the fleet.  Last year's winner Runhappy probably would have been the favorite here, but his connections went for the Dirt Mile instead, which is a tougher race at a distance he doesn't like for less money.  Sounds like a great plan.

Favorite: Masochistic is going to be the worst favorite of the entire weekend, especially if he's anywhere near his 2-1 morning line price.  Sure, he has two wins this year and has a pair of nice speed figures.  Those two wins came against a total of 6 opponents, and his last win was in a 3-horse field where nobody else challenged him for the lead.  They were also at longer distances; he has a career terrible record at 6 furlongs (5 starts, 1 win, 1 second).  He's as likely to finish last as he is to win.

Price Horse to Consider: We're not sure if his 15-1 morning line is realistic, but Limousine Liberal merits a very close look especially underneath.  He's been in the exacta 6 of 7 times at the distance, and ran a really nice second in the Phoenix last out.  Importantly, that was his first start with blinkers.  Solid chance they made the difference and made him a real contender.

Betting Approach: Narrow.  We're against the three year olds in this race - neither Mind Your Biscuits nor Noholdingback Bear has run fast enough to competitive, and we don't trust Drefong once he gets challenged on the front end.  Delta Bluesman looks too slow.  And in case it wasn't clear, we're against Masochistic.

Selections: We had a long exposition on how we loved Lord Nelson in this spot, but he scratched yesterday with an injury.  Bah.  To heck with it. We're going with our longshot to win..

1.  Limousine Liberal
2.  A.P. Indian 
3.  Drefong

Turf Sprint

Synopsis: 6 1/2 furlongs down the hill for everyone interested.  We usually crap on this race but this is by FAR the best field it's drawn since it was inaugurated in 2008.  There are multiple horses in here that would have been competitive in the Mile and have been competing in legitimate Grade 1 races the last two years.  It's not just a collection of Grade 3 horses trying to get a big paycheck.  That doesn't make it any easier to decipher, of course.

Favorite: This is another race where you could see favoritism going in a few directions, but we think it'll ultimately land on Obviously, who's run in the Breeders Cup Mile the last 4 years.  He was perpetually the pace-setter and usually faded after 6 furlongs, so you can see why they want to cut him back in distance.  That said we're dubious - he's getting a new jockey, hasn't had a ton of success at this track or at the distance, and he is 8 years old.  Wouldn't surprise us if he's won, but we're going to look elsewhere.

Price Horse to Consider: Two of the three horses we like are going to be a fair price and we'll discuss below.  For a total bomb, why not Calgary Cat, who won his last and seems to like the distacne?

Betting Approach: Spread.  In this race, it's always spread.

Selections:  Om has always been a horse that we've been high on and we love him on the turnback here.  He's extremely talented on both surfaces and we think the cutback suits him well.  He's also the answer to this random trivia question:

Yep, he's the horse to beat American Pharoah in his first start.  Underneath we like Celestine, who had a huge win in the Just a Game back on Belmont Day, and Home of the Brave, who's the best of the Euros.

1.  Om
2.  Celestine
3.  Home of the Brave

Juvenile

Synopsis:1 1/16 miles on the dirt.  After this race being fairly irrelevant for the purposes of the Kentucky Derby for years, last year's winner Nyquist won the Derby, and the winner two years ago (Texas Red) validated how good American Pharoah was.  So maybe it's back to being germane to three year old form?

Favorite: There are quite literally 5 horses we could see favored in this race, not because they all look the same, but because they all have different positive attributes.  The morning line favorite is Not This Time, who romped in the Iroquois in late September and has been the subject of a lot of chatter among horse cognoscenti.  We think favoritism is more likely to go to either Syndergaard, who ran an excellent second in the Champagne after hotly contesting the pace - and yes, we do think he'll get bet from casual fans because of the name - or Gormley, who won the Front Runner stakes handily in his last.  Californians often make California horses the favorite.

Price Horse to Consider: We had never heard of Jose Pinchin before a few weeks ago, but he comes in with Three Rules, who's undefeated in 5 starts in Florida, all in fairly convincing fashion.  Yes, he's never taken on horses better than Florida-breds, and he has early speed that might get fried here.  But he has sneaky-good breeding (we love Gone Astray as a sire and think he just needs better mares) and has been working out splendidly.  He'll be at least 10-1 and merits strong consideration.

Betting Approach: Spread.  We're not in love with the three longest shots in this race (Term of Art, Lookin at Lee, Star Empire) but can make a credible case for the rest.

Selections:  Working backwards again, we don't love Gormley as we think he basically lucked into an uncontested lead and walked to a win in the Front Runner.  That ain't happening again.  Syndergaard is probably a 1-turn horse.  Theory doesn't have enough distance foundation.  Practical Joke, who rode the best part of the track and a gift setup last time, doesn't seem fast enough to us.  We have some interest in Klimt and we'll probably use him defensively, but we don't love the rail draw and have to draw a line somewhere.  We're siding with Classic Empire, who would probably be in here undefeated if he hadn't lost his rider coming out of the gate in the Hopeful.  His Breeders' Futurity was really a nice performance, and we expect to see some improvement on it.

1.  Classic Empire
2.  Not This Time
3.  Three Rules

Turf

Synopsis: 1 1/2 miles on the sod for all comers.  In the last 20 runnings, 14 of the 21 winners (there was a dead-heat in '03) were Europeans that shipped in, and another (Main Sequence) was a Euro who campaigned in America all year.  Of the 6 Americans, 4 were prices (Buck's Boy, Little Mike, Better Talk Now and Johar) and only two were really considered championship caliber horses: English Channel and Chief Bearhart.  In short - be very wary taking a stateside horse to win, especially at a short price.

Favorite: Flintshire looks to do what Main Sequence did two years ago - spend the year in the US, win our turf races, then take the Breeders Cup Turf.  He was pretty dominant in his first three races, but ran a bad 2nd in his last to Ectot on a yielding turf.  Most will excuse that as a race where he didn't like the surface but we're a little concerned.  Clearly he prefers a hard surface (which he'll get Saturday) but he had a class edge on the field and really wasn't compromised by a bad trip.  Definitely need to use, but be wary.

Price Horse to Consider: Money Multiplier has never won a graded stakes race and finished 3 lengths behind Flintshire in his last race.  And yet, we're very interested at 20-1 or higher.  His Sword Dancer two back was really good, as was his allowance race before that, and he had a sneaky really good second in the United Nations before that, which was also not on a firm turf.  We think he's on the upswing and will benefit even more from Santa Anita's hard surface.  Very live.

Betting Approach: Narrow.  We think a chunk of this field has no business running this weekend (looking at you, Rallis, Twilight Eclipse, Ashleluvssugar, Texas Ryano), that Da Big Hoss has had a good year beating up on cheap horses, and that Ulysses isn't good enough.  We're also against Highland Reel, we know he ran 2nd in the Arc, but somehow this races seems like an afterthought to his connections.  Finally, Mondialiste is in the wrong race.  He should be in the Mile.

Selections: We have been very impressed with Found's 4 year old season, which in the last month and a half has included a win in the Arc (Europe's big race) and an excellent second to Almanzor in the Champion Stakes last out.  Heck, she beat Minding in September, and Minding may be the best turf horse on earth.  If she keeps her form and takes to the track, she should repeat, and lay waste to this Arc-Breeders Cup "curse."  Underneath, we'll use all of Flintshire, Money Multiplier and Ectot, whose win in the Hirsch last out shouldn't be overlooked.

1.  Found
2.  Money Multiplier
3.  Ectot

Filly and Mare Sprint

Synopsis: 7 furlongs on the dirt for fillies and mares three years old and up.  We have no idea why this is the third-to-last race on the card, rather than the Juvenile, regular Sprint, or frankly, anything else.  It's an okay race.  But hardly deserving of a prime time spot.

Favorite: Haveyougoneaway hasn't been out of the exacta this year and exits a nice win at the distance in the Ballerina.  She's 3-1 on the morning line and she's a good value play if she's that price.  By contrast, Carina Mia is going to get bet and we don't like her at all.  We remind everyone that 3 year olds are terrible plays in this race - they never win and are underrepresented in exactas.

Price Horse to Consider:  We don't understand remotely what the heck Ian Kruljac is doing with Finest City but she's not impossible here at a price.  Her start in the Santa Monica at the start of the year was a good 7 furlong effort, as was her sprint back in April.  Then for some reason he stretched her out to a mile, then threw her on the turf at middle distances where she was okay-not-great.  So she's turning back and switching surfaces.  We feel like anything between a DAFL and a romp at a big number is in play.

Betting Approach:  Spread.  Almost everyone is in the 92-99 speed figure range.

Selections: Not only do we not like Carina Mia, we don't see Wavell Avenue repeating last year's win, her form is just too spotty.  We like the horses exiting the Ballerina and will take them over our goofy longshot, and maybe a piece of Wonder Gal at a huge number.

1.  Haveyougoneaway
2.  Finest City
3.  By the Moon

Mile

Synopsis:1 mile on the turf for the fast and the strong.  Our favorite race every year somehow got the on deck circle again in the race sequence.  Whatever.  We think this race is a lot of fun.

Favorite: Last year's winner Tepin is back and has had a really excellent year: 6 wins in 7 starts over five different tracks, including Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Woodbine and Royal Ascot.  Her Queen Anne Stakes win at Ascot was a really neat victory, but since then she's had a workman-like victory in the Woodbine Mile and lost in the First Lady.  Has she tailed off from her best form?  Or did she just have good excuses in her last two (long layoff, front runner freaked)?  One of the toughest reads of the day.

Price Horse to Consider: There are a few.  Everyone is presuming Midnight Storm is going to get fried up front.  Maybe.  But don't overlook that he's won three straight in front-running style through tough fractions, and is working out well coming into this race.  Spectre has been competitive all year in Europe (if rarely victoriious) and adds Lasix.  Shades of Domedriver, who won this at 26-1 in 2002.  And then there's last year's Juvenile Turf winner, Hit It a Bomb, who's sown very litle this year in 3 starts, but maybe just needs to return to the US and a harder surface.  We simply can't dismiss him based on how well he closed last year.

Betting Approach: Spread.  To us, there are a two key questions in this race - what do you do with Tepin (discussed above) and what do you do with Limato, the European shipper who's excellent at 6-7 furlongs but not much of a performer at a mile?  We're leaning against both.  There's just too much good competition in this race to take horses with these flaws at short prices.

Selections: Our feeling on the race shape is that there's going to be a lot of early speed - Photo Call, Midnight Storm, What a View, maybe Tepin, maybe Limato - that a strong closer is the way to go.  There's none better here than Ironicus, who has had success at longer distances and ran a great 2nd in the Shadwell last out.  We are professed fanboys for trainer Shug McGaughey, but we think he's the best horse here and is sitting on a huge effort.  He's probably our best bet of the weekend.  Underneath, we like the best Euro, Alice Springs, and Miss Temple City, who's had a really nice year that's gotten overlooked and may sit a good trip just off the frontrunners.

1.  Ironicus
2.  Miss Temple City
3.  Alice Springs

Classic

Synopsis:1 1/4 miles on the dirt for all comers.  Yes we know, we usually do a whole separate post on this race.  But we admit we're a little pressed for time and besides, we think most of this field isn't competitive.

Favorite: 2014 Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome had something of a lost 2015 and was forgotten after American Pharoah's Triple Crown last year.  But he's had a great 2016 - after winning his first start at Santa Anita, he shipped to Dubai, won a prep race and the $10 million Dubai World Cup, then came back and won the San Diego Handicap, Pacific Classic and Awesome Again, each in dominating fashion over the best handicap horses, including Dortmund and Beholder.  He's living proof that horses really peak at age 5 and makes us wonder what other Derby winners could have done had they stayed in training (we're looking at you, Big Brown and Point Given).  Alas.

Second Choice.  Arrogate came into the Travers having made 4 starts for Bob Baffert and showing some good talent in allowance races.  Then this happened:

Jesus.  That translated to a 122 Beyer, and was the fastest Travers ever.  It's a tall order to ask him to duplicate that, but man.

Price Horse to Consider: He's gotten no attention, but Shaman Ghost has turned into a nice horse. Last year he won the Queens Plate in Canada - their equivalent of the Kentucky Derby - and was given the rest of the year off after losing his next race.  He came to the States this year and after losing an allowance race, won the Brooklyn Handicap (at 12 furlongs!), overagressively ran in the Suburban and lost, before pulling off an upset in the Woodward, a Grade 1 at 9 furlongs.  He likes to run long, runs best fresh, is on the improve and has good tactical speed.  He's going to need some luck to win.  But to hit the board at 30-1?  We're very interested.

Betting Approach: Narrow.  We have now named every horse we think can win this race.  No, we're not buying Frosted, who ran a great Met Mile but we think wants no part of 10 furlongs, or Melatonin, who hasn't run in 5 months.

Selections:  We're not going to get too creative here.  California Chrome is the best horse in the world, and has had a great year.  Unless Arrogate duplicates his Travers, he should win this going away.  And it would be a great cap to a stellar year by the former Derby champ.

1.  California Chrome
2.  Shaman Ghost
3.  Arrogate

Enjoy the Breeders Cup everyone!!

2016 Breeders Cup Preview Part I: Friday's Races

It's the first week of November, which means it's time for our annual rite of hubris and insanity.  Yes, it's our annual Breeders Cup preview, where we foolishly try to summarize 13 races in two blog posts and pick 39 horses in the exact order of finish.  We're coming off a year where we actually weren't horrific - we had 4 winners last year, including one longshot (Wavell Avenue, who was 10-1 in the Filly and Mare Sprint) and 3 more expected winners (Liam's Map in the Dirt Mile, Songbird in the Juvenile Fillies, Runhappy in the Sprint).  On the flip side, that's still 9 races we whiffed on, including picking Tonalist over American Pharoah.  Oops.

So while we turned a profit on win bets last year, let's try to improve on that.  And given that last year was the chalkiest year in Breeders Cup history - Wavell Avenue was the longest priced winner, and only one horse over 20-1 finished in the exacta - let's also hope for some solid prices.  We'll start by previewing Friday's 4 races today, and pick up later tomorrow on Saturday's extravaganza.  We'll assume the track is fast/firm and relatively fair.  As usual, we'll break down what each race is about, who the likely favorite is, and our thoughts on how to play it.

Juvenile Turf

Synopsis: 1 mile on the turf for 2 year old colts.  Hit it a Bomb furiously rallied in the stretch to take it last year continuing Europe's domination of this race.  At least it wasn't a Godolphin/Coolmore horse for a change.

Favorite: Having said all that, we don't think favoritism is going to go to one of the several Euros in this field.  It's likely either going to Oscar Performance, who romped in the Pilgrim at Belmont in his last, or Good Samaritan, who ran well in Canada last out for Bill Mott.  We have no quarrel with the latter but are against Oscar Performance - his two big efforts came on uncontested leads, which he's not likely to get on Friday, what with having the 13 post and horses like Keep Quiet and Lancaster Bomber to keep him honest.

Price Horse to Consider:  Channel Maker is 30-1 on the morning line, yet he only lost to Good Samaritan by 3 lengths in his last on a horrible trip.  He's got perfect breeding for this spot, a good trainer, a stellar jockey, and is likely going to sit a nice trip from the 3 post.  We're very interested at will be 7 times Good Samaritan's price.

Betting Approach: Spread.  Even if you ignore the Euros - don't - there are about 5 different horses we could see winning here.

Selections: For a change, we're not in love with either of the O'Brien horses, who drew poorly and look like they may have too much early speed for their own good.  But we are interested in Godolphin's Rodaini.  He doesn't look the part on first glance given he last his last by 24 lengths, but he had an impossible trip - dwelt at the start, stumbled in the stretch and was basically eased.  Yes, if he dwells at the start again, he's going to have trouble.  But if he breaks cleanly, we like Dettori to sit him behind a good pace and make a late charge at a nice price.

1.  Rodaini
2.  Good Samaritan
3.  Channel Maker

Dirt Mile

Synopsis: 1 mile on the dirt for all comers.  This race was added in 2007 amid a fair amount of outcry from Racing People that it wasn't right that there was no race between 6 and 10 furlongs for dirt runners on the Breeders Cup card.  In the 9 years we've had this race, we've had exactly one champion run in it (Caleb's Posse, 2011) and for 3 straight years, it's been a consolation prize for a genuinely good horse looking to make an easy buck by ducking better competition, winning at a short price.  This is neither fun nor productive.  Please discontinue this race.

Favorite: Dortmund looks to follow in the footsteps of Goldencents and Liam's Map by taking the easy route on Breeders Cup weekend.  After knocking heads with California Chrome 3 times and losing each time, he drops to this race where there is nobody nearly as good as California Chrome.  Or Dortmund, who's probably the 2nd or 3rd best horse in America right now.  Having a horse this good run in this race is absurd.

Price Horse to Consider: To win?  We don't think so.  Underneath?  Hmmm.  Point Piper is in decent form if you ignore his last on a wet track and may get a pace to run at.  At 20-1, why not?

Betting Approach: Single.  We're not going against Dortmund.

Selections: The interesting question in this race is what to do with Runhappy, who won last year's Sprint and is one of ten (!) prior Breeders Cup winners running this weekend.  (Fun facts - the 10 horses comprise of 8 that won a Breeders Cup race last year; of those, only 4 are trying to win the same race again in 2016, though three of them won 2yo races last year, making repeating impossible.  Runhappy's the only one who could have run in the same race again and chose not to.)  We're against him - we didn't like his comeback effort at all, and think he's not the same horse around 2 turns.  If you toss him and Gun Runner (meh), the only other horse that's likely to take money in the race, the exactas and tris may not be so shabby.  We're key Dortmund over some prices that have West Coast experience.

1.  Dortmund
2.  Point Piper
3.  Accelerate

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Synopsis: 1 mile on the turf for 2 year old fillies.  We've noted this in the past, but the American fillies always fair well in this race, as evidenced by Catch a Glimpse's solid win last year.  This year's edition has one of the most inscrutable fields that you'll see all weekend, which probably means chalk will run 1-2-3.

Favorite: It's either going to be La Coronel, who won the Jessamine at Churchill Downs very impressively in her last and is trained by Mark Casse (who won this race last year), or Aiden O'Brien's Roly Poly, who just missed in a Grade 1 at Newmarket last out.  The problem with these two horses is they drew the 13 and 14 post, so they need to either clear the field or take back quick, lest they get caught very wide on the first turn.

Price Horse to Consider: Coasted won a pair of races at Saratoga impressively this summer, then did little in the Miss Grillo, the prep for this race at Belmont.  But that was over a yielding turf that she probably didn't like.  She has tactical speed, a positive jockey switch (Mike Smith isn't our favorite, but he's great at Santa Anita) and is going to be around 20-1.  Definitely worth considering.

Betting Approach: Spread.  Seriously, we were deciding between Coasted, Rymska, Cavale Doree and Lull as our "Price Horse to Consider."  There are a lot of options in this race that make perfect sense.

Selections: We think there's a decent amount of speed in this race, so we're looking for closers that should make a nice move on the far turn and run down the leaders.  Of the 6 or so that we like, we're siding with Spain Burg, who gets a new trainer (Kathy Ritvo, who's fine), Lasix and a short layoff to prep for this spot.  We'll use her over all the longshots we discussed above, and maybe some of New Money Honey.  This race is as tough as they get all weekend - plan accordingly.

1.  Spain Burg
2.  Coasted
3.  Cavale Doree

Distaff

Synopsis: 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for fillies and mares, 3 years old and up.  This is the best race of the weekend, and is one of the best races in recent Breeders Cup history.  Even if it's not the best wagering opportunity in the world, as a sporting event, it's phenomenal.

Favorite: Songbird won last year's Juvenile Fillies and is 11-for-11 in her career.  In those 11 starts, she's won 7 Grade 1 races, has won by a total of over 60 lengths, and has never won by less than 3 1/2 lengths.  She's something else, and has been drawing praise from all over the racing press.  And of course, we're going to try to beat her.

Next two choices: Stellar Wind and Beholder have met each other three times this year and put on three excellent performances, with Stellar Wind holding the 2-1 advantage.  Stellar Wind is last year's 3 year old champion who's had a light campaign (3 starts) but has never been out of the exacta at Santa Anita and could sit a beautiful trip behind what should be a fair pace.  Beholder is a Hall of Fame horse that's already won two Breeders Cup races (Juvenile Fillies in '12, this race in '13), has a ridiculous record of 13 wins and 2 seconds in 15 starts at Santa Anita, and since her debut, has only finished worse than second once in the next 24 starts.  She's amazing.  And she's probably going to be the third choice.

The East Coasters: In case that wasn't enough, we have a troika of interesting horses shipping from the East.  Curalina has put forth some explosive performances: her La Troinne and Shuvee were both outstanding, and she comes in off a layoff, a move trainer Todd Pletcher did last year with Stopchargingmaria en route to a win.  I'm a Chatterbox and Forever Unbridled have each won two Grade 1's this year and ran fabulously in their last races, winning by open lengths in traditional Breeders Cup preps.  All three of these horses should be 10-1 or higher.

Price Horse to Consider: Pass.  We can't make any case for the other two horses, Land Over Sea or Corona del Inca, other than strange things happen every day.

Betting Approach: This comes down to how you want to treat Songbird.  Some people will single her.  We think that's nuts.  She's never run against older horses, has no edge in speed figures, and is going to go to the lead where she's likely to get pressed by Curalina and Beholder.  She's never faced real speed before.  We think she does this Friday and folds, very similar to what happened to Lost in the Fog in the Sprint 11 years ago.  So in short, spread.

Selections: God this difficult.  Working backwards, we think Curalina will also chase Songbird and get eaten up by the early pace, and we think Stellar Wind is ripe for a bounce off her last.  Both could win, we're just leaning otherwise.  Forever Unbridled is a really nice horse that never seems to get there against the best competition.  We're going to side with Beholder taking her final race and capping off a magnificent career, thinking she sits a perfect stalking trip on a track she loves.  Because chalk never runs 1-2-3 in these races, we're throwing in the improving I'm a Chatterbox is a fun wildcard.  Sit back and enjoy, this is going to be a good one.

1.  Beholder
2.  I'm a Chatterbox
3.  Stellar Wind

Coming up tomorrow: Saturday's races.

2013 Breeders Cup Preview Part I: Friday's Races

It's Breeders Cup time! Sadly, work is going to keep us from doing an introductory post this year, which we're a little sad about. For now, we intend to instead do a wrap up post on Sunday or Monday, looking at where things stand after racing's biggest weekend.

Before we dive into this year's races, let's take a look back at how we did forecasting last year's races. Of the 15 horses we picked to win the 15 races last year, 2 were victorious, though neither was much of a price: Beholder in the Juvenile Fillies ($9.80) and Groupie Doll in the F&M Sprint ($3.40). Four others (Merit Man, Atigun, The Fugue, Mucho Macho Man) ran in the money. The better play, apparently, was taking our horses that we picked to finish 3rd, which won 5 races (Royal Delta, George Vancouver, Mizdirection, Shanghai Bobby, Hightail). While we're not exactly proud about this showing, we're happy enough that 9 of the horses we picked to finish in the money actually won.

Let's try to improve on that this year, starting with Friday's races. We'll confess that we don't love Friday's card, which is in large part because the Breeders Cup shifted the races around to move some of the lesser events to Friday, though we think there are a lot of vulnerable favorites running. The good news is that Saturday's card is a mile better. This year we're adding another category in our previews called "Betting Approach", where we'll indicate whether a better should take a narrow approach to betting the race, a spread approach, a potential single, or just chaos. We hope this will give everyone a better idea of how to use the races in exotics wagers.

Marathon

Synopsis: 1 3/4 miles on the dirt for all brave enough to try the distance. This races involves horses going past the stands twice and making three turns. "Historically" - there have been 5 iterations of this race - closers are the way to go as they've won every time. There's a ton of apparent speed in this year's edition of this race, making this theory even more likely.

Favorite: On the heels of South American marathoner Calidioscopo winning this last year, the Argentinian Ever Rider is here, having run the distance a whopping 12 times in his native country. By contrast, the other 9 horses have run the distance on the dirt a combined 4 times.

Price Horse to Consider: At 10-1, Suns Out Guns Out is the "longest" morning line shot on the board, but he has a chance. Hell, it's a race at 14 furlongs. Nobody is out of it.

Betting Approach: Chaos. As we said, this is not a race that has a lot of prior form, as horses don't run 14 furlongs on the dirt. Anything is possible.

Selections: Since closers have won every race and generally make up the other horses that finish in the money, let's go with the three horses that figure to be the farthest back early on: Old Time Hockey, Indian Jones and Pool Play. We'll downgrade OTH's chances a bit because of his lack of dirt experience, and lean on Pool Play, who at least has won a Grade 1 race.

1. Pool Play 2. Indian Jones 3. Old Time Hockey

Juvenile Turf

Synopsis: 1 mile on the turf for 2 year old colts. The last two editions were won by second-tier Coolmore horses that made their American debut in the race and were square prices (Wrote and George Vancouver). In case you're wondering why Giovanni Boldini gets a lot of play, that's probably a factor.

Favorite: Bobby's Kitten is one of seven horses running for the Ramsey family, almost all of which have the word "Kitten" in their name as their attempt to advertise their prodigious sire, Kitten's Joy. In any event, he blew away the field in his maiden victory and the Grade 3 Pilgrim, and looks like a fair favorite, though we're looking elsewhere for the winner.

Price Horse to Consider: Bon Accord has good turf breeding and his last race wasn't bad, and that was while it was taken off the turn in a rainstorm. He could move up on a return to the sod.

Betting Approach: Spread. There are a lot of horses that could win this race, even though we're against the American favorites.

Selections: We think there's a lot of speed in this race, as Bashar has to get sent from the outside post and will likely duel with Bobby's Kitten and All Cash, who will get sent from the rail. So we're going to look for closers at an okay price. The aforementioned Giovanni Boldini has a shot, as does Outstrip, but we're most intrigued by Wilshire Boulevard, who has a lot of races (7) under his belt, good turf breeding, and it appears some tactical speed. We'll take him over Shamshon, who think will also run well at a price, and our longshot.

1. Wilshire Boulevard 2. Shamshon 3. Bon Accord

Dirt Mile

Synopsis: 1 mile on the dirt for all comers. This is a 2-turn edition of this race, which we think favors horses with some distance experience, rather than stretching out sprinters.

Favorite: It's likely Verrazano, who won the Wood Memorial and Haskell but flopped horribly as the Travers favorite and morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby. One of our friends called him the worst morning line favorite in Breeders Cup history; we think that's a bit much, but given that he's never faced older horses, hasn't run in 2+ months, and drew the far outside, we're not particularly interested.

Price Horse to Consider: Broadway Empire comes in having won two straight derbies. Unfortunately, they're the Canadian and Oklahoma Derbies. But still - he's well-bred, in good form, improving and has tactical speed. At 12-1 or higher, he's worth a look.

Betting Approach: Spread. We think this is a good time to play against both morning line favorites (Verrazano and Goldencents) and look elsewhere for a price.

Selections: This race has become something of a spot for 2nd-tier horses that are honest and decent enough to win a good race on their best day but have no real consistency and aren't good enough to compete at the upper level (Caleb's Posse was the only real exception). Pants on Fire fits that description to a tee. On his best day, he can finish in the money against the quality of horses that's running in Grade 1 races, and he has to his names some nice wins in Grade 2's and Grade 3's. He also likes the distance, with 4 wins in 7 tries, and has good tactical speed. We like him over hard-knockers Hymn Book, who should close late (if in vain), Broadway Empire, and Centralintelligence, who has a shot and could get forgotten in betting.

1. Pants on Fire 2. Hymn Book 3. Broadway Empire

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Synopsis: 1 mile on the turf for 2yo fillies. We're trying to figure out how this race wound up in the spot right before Friday's big race. We still have no idea.

Favorite: It's probably My Conquistadory, who won the Alcibiades in a race that was visually impressive but ordinary on paper. We side with the numbers over the eyes.

Price Horse to Consider: Ready to Act was the favorite in her last race then tossed her rider and didn't finish. We suspect there's value there.

Betting Approach: Narrow/Spread. We think there are a few ways to go in this race, but none of them include horses that were originally trained in North America. Our inclination is to toss all of them and focus on the imports.

Selections: We like the Euros but we don't love Vorda who has some obscure connections and races that are less impressive upon examination. We prefer Chirasellium, who's run quite well in Europe against tough competition, Testa Rossi, who ran well in France, then shipped to the US and just got up late in a flying finish in the Miss Grillo, and Al Thakira, who's spectacularly bred but light on experience. We'll side with the middle because she'll be a longer price and has more experience under her belt.

1. Testa Rossi 2. Chirasellium 3. Al Thakira

Distaff

Synopsis: 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for the ladies, 3 years old and up. Finally, the Distaff got its proper name back! Now we just need to get it moved back to Saturday and get the execrable Turf Sprint off the main card.

Probable Favorite: Princess of Sylmar enters the race sporting a 10/8-1-0 record, having only lost once since her first start, a fair second in the Gazelle to Close Hatches (who's also in this race). Since losing the Gazelle, she's ripped off 4 straight wins in Grade 1 races, beating Close Hatches and competitor Beholder in the process, and flew past 2-time Distaff winner Royal Delta in her last race. She's sensational and becomes a candidate for Horse of the Year with a victory.

Price Horse with a Chance: With all the hype surrounding Princess of Sylmar, Royal Delta and Beholder (who won the Juvenile Fillies last year and has won 6 of her last 8) don't forget about Authenticity, who has had a sneaky good year, finishing in the money in all 8 starts and running a strong second to Beholder in her last race. She's the "other" Pletcher but she's a good horse.

Betting Approach: Narrow/Possible Single. There are only 6 horses, one of which has no shot, and we think only a couple of them are legitimate candidates to win.

Selections: Process of elimination. Street Girl isn't bad, but is way over her head here. We've never really loved Close Hatches and think she was lucky to beat Princess of Sylmar in the Gazelle because she set a slow pace against a small field. We're also not in love with Royal Delta, who we feel ran her best races last year and is the likely one of the two to fade in a pace battle between her and Beholder. Authenticity and Beholder both have a shot but we see no compelling reason to go against Princess of Sylmar here. We think she wins handily and sets up a fascinating story line for Saturday's races.

1. Princess of Sylmar 2. Authenticity 3. Beholder

Coming up tomorrow: Saturday's races.

2012 Breeders Cup Preview Part III: Saturday's Card

Let's jump right into Saturday's card, which has nine (nine!) races, most of which we like.

Juvenile Turf

Conditions: 1 mile on the turf for 2yo colts.  This remains one of our favorite races on the Breeders Cup card, we're more than a little annoyed about the fact that it's the first race of the day, as we'd prefer to see it in later multi-race exotics.

Favorites: Last year we said "It's unclear to us who will be the favorite" and we're going to repeat that this year.  It's likely to be one of three horses: Joha, who lost the With Anticipation by a head, then won the Breeders Futurity over a synthetic track; Balance the Books, who won both the With Anticipation and Bourbon, two of the "big" domestic 2yo grass races, or Artigiano, who ran a couple of good seconds in Europe.  Contrary to the morning line odds, we do not think that Dudonnell will be the post-time favorite.

Price Horse To Consider: For no particularly good reason, Dry Summer switched from turf to dirt in his last start, even though he ran quite well on the turf, winning his prior start.  He bombed on the dirt, and is now back on the grass for Jeff Mullins and Joe Talamo.  Very live if you ignore his last race.

Picks: This is a complete spread race, we think.  We aren't necessarily against any of the aforementioned favorites, and would use them in doubles/Pick-Somethings, but like others a little more.  One is the horrible named but superbly bred George Vancouver, who has bloodlines from the Phipps family.  But we're going with the unheralded Euro Fantastic Moon, who's also well bred (his sire is Arc winner Dalakhani) and had a trip from hell last out.  He's unlikely to fare worse on Saturday, unless jockey Kieran Fallon is on the take once again.

1.  Fantastic Moon  2.  Dry Summer  3.  George Vancouver

Filly and Mare Sprint

Conditions: 7 furlongs for 3yo and up fillies on the dirt.  The unifying theme for the first six runnings of this race has been to avoid 3 year olds who are winless and have burned a lot of money in the process: in addition to our 2010 pick Switch, Dream Run, Turbulent Descent and La Traviata all took a lot of money and bombed.  Also, no favorites have won this race.

Favorite: Meet your biggest favorite for the weekend, Groupie Doll, who's won four in a row and annihilated last year's winner Musical Romance by 7 1/2 lengths in the Humana Distaff on Derby Day.  She's going to be lower than even money, and deservedly so.

Price Horse to Consider: Switch has gone from intriguing play to money burner back to intriguing play.  Many will say she's over the top and she might be, as she's only been in the money once this year in five starts.  But she's turning back from two starts around two turns, and her only 1-turn start on the dirt this year was off a 7-month layoff.  We think the talent's still there to at least hit the board.

Picks: We'll be boring and say it -- if Groupie Doll shows up, she romps.  The only good advice that we have is to look past the overrated Dust and Diamonds and Turbulent Descent in the triples, and maybe try to sneak some prices underneath.

1.  Groupie Doll  2.  Switch  3.  Musical Romance

Dirt Mile

Conditions: 1 mile on the dirt for 3yos and up.  There's an important difference between this year's edition and the last two at Churchill Downs: this is a two-turn race, not a one-turn race.  We saw closing turnbackers Dakota Phone and Caleb's Posse win the 1-turn editions, query whether that style will work here at all.

Favorite: 2011 Preakness winner and 2011 Dirt Mile runner-up Shackleford is the likely favorite, and in our opinion, the worst favorite on the weekend.  Remember our maxim from our initial post to avoid horses that were stars of the first half of the year?  Well, Shackleford fits that description to a tee, having run well in the Carter, won the CD Sprint and Met Mile all by Memorial Day.  He then ran DAFL in the Vanderbilt and was  a no-excuse well-beaten second in the Kelso.  We'd happily toss him.

Price Horse to Consider: Second City has only made 5 starts, and while none of them were particularly fast, he's pretty well-bred: Distorted Humor by graded stakes winner Sis City.  There are worse longest shots on the board.

Picks: There is a TON of speed in this race, as all of Emcee, Shackleford, Fed Biz and Delegation figure to be involved early.  So we want to go with a closer.  While many will focus on Jersey Town, who won the Kelso last out, we're a little skeptical because he doesn't seem to like leaving New York state, seems to prefer 1-turn races, and would prefer a little moisture in the track.  We'll instead take a shot with John Scott, who is a local that's had a solid year, albeit mostly on synthetic tracks, and should work out a good trip from the 4-slot.  We figure that some speed will still hit the board, so we'll put the still inexperienced Emcee in the show position.

1.  John Scott  2.  Jersey Town  3.  Emcee

Turf Sprint

Conditions: 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill turf for anyone and everyone.  When they ran this race in 2008, the half mile was run in under 42 seconds, which at the time we thought was a typo.  It wasn't.  Down the hill, they can go really fast.

Favorite:  It'll either be local and sentimental favorite California Flag, who won this in 2009 but has done little since then, or Bridgetown, who oddly enough, might be Todd Pletcher's best chance on the card.

Price Horse to Consider: Mizdirection is 20-1 on the morning line despite being 2-for-2 at the distance and in decent form.  That seems wrong.

Picks: We don't really like this race or have strong opinions, so we'll say pitch the favorites on general principle and go with the classiest horses in the group, which are probably Corporate Jungle, who was second to Wise Dan two starts back, and Next Question, who won the Grade 1 Neartic at Woodbine last out.

1.  Next Question  2.  Corporate Jungle  3.  Mizdirection

Juvenile

Conditions: 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2yo colts.  It was nice of them to move this out of the late Pick Four, what with the Lasix ban adding a level of unpredictability that nobody particularly cares for.

Favorite: Shanghai Bobby has won all four starts for Sir Pletcher by a combined 14 lengths.  That said, we remain a little wary because of the Lasix ban and not being in love with Pletcher horses shipping across the country in October.  We're not saying toss him, but he doesn't strike us as a dominant single a la Uncle Mo in 2010.

Price Horse to Consider:We're not sure that a son of pure sprinter Street Boss wants to go two turns, but Capo Bastone is a stone closer that's kinda interesting for John Sadler.  Not only should he get a pace to run into, he should get a better trip than last out, where he bobbled at the start and was wide on both turns.  Looks like he can get a piece of the action at double-digit odds.

Picks:  The reason we can't endorse Capo Bastone on top is that the horse that beat him, Power Broker, is here as well.  This Bob Baffert charge has a win over the track, is bred fine for the distance, and is working out gorgeously.  After a wide trip, he exploded in the stretch to take Whatever They've Now Calling the Norfolk Now in his last, winning by half a dozen lengths.  Assuming the 9 post doesn't kill him, we think he's the best horse in the field.

1.  Power Broker  2.  Capo Bastone  3. Shanghai Bobby

Turf

Conditions: 1 1/2 miles on the turf for all comers.  Last year was the first time that this race wasn't the penultimate on the card, for some reason they're doing that again this year, even though it has an interesting cast of characters and a $3 million purse.

Favorite: The blog's favorite trainer, Shug McGaughey, sends out Point of Entry, who's 5-for-6 this year with 5 wins on the grass, 4 in graded stakes (including 3 Grade 1's) and 3 at the distance of a mile and a half.  He'll be the first American horse favored in this race since Kitten's Joy in 2004.  Of course, Kitten's Joy lost.

Price Horse to Consider: Cogito's first start in the US wasn't particularly impressive, as he was a non-threatening 4th in the Jamaica stakes against other 3yos.  But we're willing to look a little past that at 30-1.  This guy ran decently against top-shelf competition in Europe and is bred to like the distance.  We like that he's now in Doug O'Neill's barn and has been working out locally all month, and still retains Frankie Dettori as his jockey.  Yes, he's a stab, but at a price, we like him.

Picks:  Point of Entry could win, but we're a little skeptical of his credentials.  His Grade 1 wins have come against fairly suspect competition: the two horses he beat in his last, Treasure Beach and Kindergarten Kid, are rank outsiders here, and he beat nobody of consequence in the Sword Dancer or Man O'War.  Those two races might technically be Grade 1s, but draw some of the weakest G1 fields year after year.

By contrast, in her last 9 starts (dating back to September 2011), European invader Shareta has:

• Run 2nd in the Arc to the good (if fragile) Danedream, beating St. Nicholas Abbey in the process, who came back to win last year's turf;
• Ran 7th but lost by less than 5 lengths in the Japan Cup, ending a good 3yo season;
• Won the Prix Vermille and Yorkshire Oaks, a pair of Grade 1's at 1 1/2 miles, defeating The Fugue in the process;
• Traded decisions with Solemia in multiple stakes races, who came back to win the Arc; and 
• Run 9th in the Arc, which history has shown is irrelevant for a horse's chances in the BC Turf, and is somewhat irrelevant because of how deep the Arc course was that day.

On class alone, she towers of Point of Entry, and is only matched by St. Nicholas Abbey, who we think isn't quite as fast as he was last year.  She's one of our best bets all weekend.

1.  Shareta  2.  Point of Entry  3.  Cogito

Sprint

Conditions: 6 furlongs on the dirt for all comers.  Finally, they moved our favorite race to the juicy portion of the card!  Also, because the Dirt Mile is around two turns, the race drew a much better field this year than it has the last few years.

Favorite:  Amazombie won this race last year, and while he's had a so-so year defending his title as the Eclipse champion sprinter (two wins in 5 starts), he's won 4 of 8 starts over the track and clearly used his 4th place finish in the Nee Ancient Title as a prep for this race.  He's a legit favorite.

Price Horse to Consider:  Poseidon's Warrior's 36-1 shocker in the Vanderbilt was considered to be a fluke because of the sloppy track, but then he came back and ran an okay 3rd on a fast track in the Vosburgh.  What if he's just finally coming into his own?

Picks: Like the Dirt Mile, there's enough speed in here (Fast Bullet, Trinniberg, Sum of the Parts) that you almost have to side with the closers by default.  Both of Bob Baffert's closers, Capital Account and Coil, fit the bill, and we slightly prefer the latter, who's never lost at the distance.  This does not look like a spot to go light in your Pick-somethings though, because we could see a cavalry charge of 6 horses come the final furlong, including our longshot du jour and the improving Jimmy Creed.  Fun race.

1.  Coil  2.  Capital Account  3.  Amazombie

Mile

Conditions: 1 mile on the turf for all horses.  This is probably the best race on Saturday's card, as it features a neat mixture of Americans and Europeans and has a Horse of the Year candidate.  It also features 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom in his second race since June 2011; we give him zero chance, which means he'll probably romp.

The Two Favorites:  The two horses who will rightly get the most attention in this race are American Wise Dan and European Excelebration.  Wise Dan comes in off three straight scintillating victories at a mile on the turf in the Fourstardave, Woodbine Mile, and Shadwell Mile, to add to his nose loss in the Stephen Foster (on the dirt) and win in the Ben Ali (on synthetics).  He's a really neat horse.  Excelebration sports an impressive 8-4-1 record in 14 starts, including an 4-3-1 record at a flat mile, but is even better than his record indicates because he's been chasing Horse of the Century Frankel for the last two years to no avail.  The last time he finished behind a horse not named Frankel was June 2011 in the St. James Palace Stakes; if you removed Frankel from all of his races, his running line would move to 14/12-1-0 and he'd be sporting an 8-race win streak.  He's that good.

The Next Two Choices:  We're blessed to also be seeing a pair of other horses that would be 3-1 most years but will be longer prices because of the other two contenders.  European filly Moonlight Cloud has three wins in 5 starts this year, including a pair of Grade 1's, but her two losses are what make her really interesting: she lost to the undefeated superstar Black Caviar by a head at Ascot, and lost to Excelebration by a length in August when she had a bad trip.  The big question with her is whether she's really a miler, as most of her success has been at slightly shorter distances.  Obviously was shipped over from Europe this winter and has had a relatively stout campaign for Mike Mitchell (8 starts since March 22nd), in which he's turned into a feisty front-runner.  He's sporting three straight front-running wins at a mile, including California's two most prestigious summer and fall turf races.  There also doesn't appear to be a ton of speed in the race, meaning he may just get things his own way and put the rest of the field to sleep.

Price Horse to Consider:  Although he's lost two times in a row to Obviously, there are a few reasons to think that Mr. Commons can reverse that finish in the Mile.  He should sit a good trip with his rail draw, seems to be on the improve speed figure-wise, has some tactical speed, and clearly loves the surface, having never finished out of the triple.  If you're like us and think that front-runners are fool's gold in the Mile -- there's a reason a front runner hasn't won this race since 1993 -- you have to think he rates a better chance at 6 times the price.

Picks: As hinted above, we don't love Obviously because we don't love turf front-runners in this race.  And we're a little skeptical about Moonlight Cloud at the distance; maybe it's nothing, but we think the fact that she repeatedly ran at shorter distances and has had goofy trips at the longer mile does not augur well.  Which brings it down to the two favorites, and we'll favor the Euro.  They always dominate on the turf (though not necessarily in this race) and we think their best trumps our best.  But more than anything, we're just excited for this race, because this should be a great showdown.

1.  Excelebration  2.  Wise Dan  3.   Mr. Commons

Coming up later: Our breakdown of the wide-open Breeders Cup Classic.

2012 Breeders Cup Preview Part II: Friday's Card

Let's start with an accountability check that might morph into a humblebrag: how did we do predicting last year's Breeders Cup races?  Of the 14 horses we picked to win (one scratched), 3 won (Secret Circle, $2.80; Caleb's Posse, $15.60; and St. Nicholas Abbey, $15.60) and 4 more ran in the money.  Three of the horses we picked to run second won, including the obvious Royal Delta in the Distaff and a pair (Wrote, 25.20 and Amazombie $17.80) that were in races we noted were spread opportunities.

So for the second straight year we picked three winners, and betting every horse that we picked to win would have produced a small profit.  But again, we note that the best thing to do is take our picks as guidance and try to leverage them into high prices in the exotics.  We picked the cold triple in the Juvenile Sprint and the Dirt Mile-Turf double, and the Juvy Turf-Sprint double was pretty haveable from our selections.  We'll note in our picks below where we think the races are wide-open, not because we're wimping out on our picks, but because we want you to bet it properly.  If it's wide-open, the analysis of the race is as important as who we pick to win.

Enough navel-gazing, let's turn to Friday's races, which we find considerably less interesting than Saturday's races (especially the first 4).  As always, we're assuming the track is fast and the turf is fum.

Juvenile Sprint

Synopsis: 6 furlongs on the dirt for 2 year olds.  This year none of the 2-year olds are allowed to use Lasix, which is no change for the Europeans -- it's forbidden there -- but is a large shift for most of the domestic horses.  This is the first race where we'll see how it plays out.

Favorite:  The honors are either going to go to Merit Man or Super Ninety Nine.  The former is a Bob Hess charge that sports the highest last-out Gowanus Speed Figure winning something called the Tim Conway; the latter is an impressive maiden winner and the first of Bob Baffert's many horses scheduled to run over the weekend.  You're going to hear his name a lot throughout this preview. 

Price Horse to Consider:  Ceiling Kitty ships in from Great Britain having never run on the dirt but we're not that worried about this.  She's run 7 times, won three times, and appears to have something resembling tactical speed.  If you're going to back a 2yo Euro, make sure they have a lot of experience; she fits the bill.  Interesting at her 12-1 morning line price.

Picks:  We think Merit Man looks pretty tough, having dueled with South Floyd (who's also in this race) in his last and drawn off impressively.  The best way to making some hay here seems to be going against Super Ninety Nine, who had everything his way in his maiden victory and appears to have beaten little.  We'll go with our longshot underneath and root for closer Hightail to round out the triple.

1.  Merit Man  2.  Ceiling Kitty  3.  Hightail

Marathon

Synopsis: 1 3/4 miles on the dirt for 3 year olds and up.  We've tried to find a common theme amongst the previous winners in this race, and the only one we can come up with is that they aren't particularly good horses.

Favorite:  The likely favorite is Fame and Glory, who's had a great career: 14 wins in 25 starts, 5 Grade 1 wins, including wins in the Irish Derby, Coronation Cup and Tattersalls Gold Cup.  That said, he's never run on the dirt before, isn't bred to run on the dirt, and appears to have slowed down a lot this year, so we're looking elsewhere.

Price Horse to Consider:  Balladry is beautifully bred (Unbridled's Song out of Storm Song, winner of the '96 Juvenile Fillies) and has run well in the past.  Why not at 30-1?

Picks:  Our old friend Atigun who we liked in the Belmont and ran pretty well is back in this spot after running blah 4ths in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup.  He's well-bred for the distance and has some upside.  It sounds as good an idea as any in a race we usually are clueless in handicapping.

1.  Atigun  2.  Balladry  3.  Eldaafer

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Synposis: 1 mile on the turf for 2-year old fillies. Favorites and Europeans have been 0-for-4 in this race so far, which probably means it's time to jump on the best import in the race, right?

Favorite:  Sky Lantern is going to be one of the strongest favorites over the Breeders Cup weekend, having never run worse than 2nd, won a Grade 1 stakes in her last at the Curragh, and being unaffected by the Lasix ban.  That said, she's shipping 6500 miles and we've been burned by the Euros time and again in this race, so we're a touch skeptical.

Price Horse to Consider:  There are four Euros in the race.  Sky Lantern will be bet heavily and Flotilla will take some action off her decent effort on Arc day.  But we're much more intrigued by the two longer shots.  Waterway Run has won 3 of 4 and has some tactical speed and the services of Frankie Dettori, one of the best in the business.  We like that she'll be involved early because often the shippers get killed adjusting to the different style of American races.  The Gold Cheongsam has seven prior starts -- we love that -- and is trained by the underrated Jeremy Noseda, who upset the Juvenile with Wilko in 2004.  Very useable at 20-1.

Picks:  We would never say toss Sky Lantern, but we don't think this is as easy as making her a single in all multi-race bets.  We'll take a small stab with Flashy Ways, who's only run twice, but appears to like the turf and won impressively over the Santa Anita turf in her last.  If she's able to work out a decent trip from teh 13 post, we think she's liable to pull off an upset.

1.  Flashy Ways  2.  Sky Lantern  3.  The Gold Cheongsam

Juvenile Fillies

Synopsis: 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2-year old fillies.  Nine of the last ten runnings have been won by the one of the top 3 choices in the race.  The exception was She Be Wild in 2009, who was a whopping 7-1.  Historically, this hasn't been the race to start chasing longshots in the win slot.

Favorite:  This race has the horse who will probably be Friday's strongest favorite: Executiveprivilege.  She's 5-for-5, boasts a win on the track, was expensive and is nicely bred, and is trained by the irrasciable Bob Baffert.  There aren't a lot of holes here.

Price Horse to Consider:  Between Executiveprivilege, the rapidly improving Beholder and strong pair of Todd Pletcher horses (Dreaming of Julia and Kauai Katie), the longshots have their work cut out for them.  Hmm.  How about D. Wayne Lukas' Broken Spell, who should be able to close into a strong pace and is well-bred to enjoy a longer distance?

Picks:  We'll downgrade Pletcher's horses because of the shipping and Lasix ban, but beyond that think it's between the top two choices.  We'll go with Beholder, who only lost to Executiveprivilege by a nose in the Debutante and then ran her eyeballs out in a subsequent allowance race.  This is 2 1/2 furlongs longer than that race, but we think she's up for it.

1.  Beholder  2.  Executiveprivilege  3.  Broken Spell

Filly and Mare Turf

Synopsis: 1 1/4 miles on the turf for 3-year old and up fillies.  As chalky as the Juvenile Fillies has been, this race has seen several winners at good prices, such as Perfect Shirl ('11), Shared Account ('10), Lahudood ('07), Intercontinental ('05), and Starine ('02).  The question usually boils down to whether a dominant Euro like Ouija Board, Banks Hill or Midday is present.

Favorite:  His Royal Highness the Aga Khan sends over from France three-year old filly Ridasiyna, winner of 4 of her 5 starts, including the Prix de l'Opera on the Arc undercard.  She looks a lot like last year's runner Nahrain (who's also in this year's field), who ran an excellent second in the '11 edition, losing by less then half a length.

Horses We Don't Like: The next choices after imports Ridasiyna and The Fugue (who we'll discuss in a minute) are a series of horses we're against.  Marketing Mix has had a good year -- 4 wins and a second in 6 starts -- but we've never thought she really would like this distance and think she's more of a miler and a notch below the best horses.  Nahrain, I'm a Dreamer and Zagora all exit a Flower Bowl that was run over a thick, deep bog-like surface that will be the complete opposite of Santa Anita's turf.  I'm a Dreamer hasn't shown any ability to do well on a firm turf, Zagora shouldn't like the distance, and Nahrain defaulted into that last win.  We'd toss all of them.

Price Horse to Consider:  Nereid has only run in the money once this year, but it was in her last race, where she closed from 15 lengths out to lose by 2 lengths to Marketing Mix, who we don't think will thrive at this distance against this field.  We like that she's never been out of the exacta at the distance and has John Shirreffs as her trainer, once of Santa Anita's best.  Certainly live to hit the board at 15-1 or higher.  Also interesting at a long price is Aidan O'Brien's Up, who sports a couple of running lines this year that would make her competitive here.

Picks:  The Fugue is a horse we've liked since the pre-entries came out, whether she was running in this or the regular Turf.  She's impeccably bred: her sire is Dansili (sire of Arc winner Rail Link and dozens of other traded stakes winners) and her dam is by the legendary Sadler's Wells. She has tactical speed, meaning she'll be closer to the pace than the closers and less subject to traffic trouble.  She won the Nassau Stakes at the same distance with ease two starts back, and then lost her last by a nose to Shareta, who would be 4-5 in this race.  She's our best bet of the day.

1.  The Fugue  2.  Ridasiyna  3.  Nereid

Ladies Classic (nee Distaff)

Synopsis: 1 1/8 on the dirt for 3-year old and up fillies. Let's be blunt: this is the best race of the entire weekend, and probably the best edition of this race, as it matches up three different horses that have won Breeders Cup races and two undefeated horses.

Favorite:  Royal Delta won this race last year, defeating a motley group of older fillies and her classmates Plum Pretty and It's Tricky in the process.  Since then she's had an interesting 4yo season: a fruitless trip to Dubai for the World Cup, dominating wins in the Beldame and Fleur de Lis, and puzzling losses in the Sabin and Personal Ensign.  When she's on, she's fabulous, but she hasn't always fired.

Next Two Favorites:  Awesome Feather won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2010 but has only run 4 times since then, including twice this year. What's neat is that she's won all four of those starts meaning she's undefeated at 10-for-10.  Also undefeated and in this race is last year's Juvenile Fillies winner My Miss Aurelia, who's 6-for-6 in her career.  Both of these ladies have won twice this year in stylish fashion but haven't faced the pinnacle of the division yet.  A win by either would also make them the second horse to win two different Breeders Cup races (Zenyatta being the other).

Picks:  We wouldn't be surprised by a win from any of these horses or Questing, who won the CCA Oaks and Alabama in front-running style, but are more intrigued by a horse who figures to be a price.  Love and Pride enters the race with a pair of Grade 1 wins at a mile and an eighth -- same distance as this race -- including a win over the track and a win against Royal Delta in the Personal Ensign.  Her connections (Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez) need no introduction.  She seems capable of rating off what should be a legitimate pace that Questing and My Miss Auerlia will likely set.  And most importantly, she's going to be a square price, as she's likely to be forgotten in the wagering despite coming into her own over the last two months. We like her to post a minor upset and have the commentariat cursing for letting a Pletcher horse win and pay $20.

1.  Love and Pride  2.  Awesome Feather  3.  Royal Delta

Coming up tomorrow: Saturday's card.

2011 Breeders Cup Preview Part II: Fixing the Race Schedule

The Breeders Cup schedule is an utter mess.  I'm not talking about the prep races--that's a whole other series of posts--I mean the Friday and Saturday cards.  To illustrate, let's go through a little history of what races were in the Breeders Cup and how they were organized.

1984: Creation.  The Breeders Cup is launched with 7 races: the Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies, Mile, Sprint, Distaff, Turf and Classic. The order of races changes occasionally--sometimes the Distaff was first, sometimes the Juvenile Fillies--but the Turf and Classic are always the last two races.  Six of the seven races correspond with Eclipse Awards for specific divisions, and the seventh (the Mile) is a race designed in part to appeal to Europeans and in part to have a second turf race on the card.

1999: First Expansion.  For reasons unclear, the initial Breeders Cup included races that would settle every Eclipse division except female turf horses.  This was solved by introducing the Filly & Mare Turf and making the Breeders Cup an 8-race card.  Despite the awkward name and the fact that there's no set distance for the race (sometimes it's a mile and a quarter, sometimes a mile and three-eighths), the race has been a tremendous success, producing some memorable champions (Ouija Board, Banks Hill, Soaring Softly) and some enjoyable upsets (Lahudood, Starine, Shared Account).

2007: The Two-Day Event.  The one-day card goes by the wayside in 2007, as the Breeders Cup introduces three new races.  The Filly Sprint comes on to handle the new Eclipse Award for female sprinters; while we're not in favor of this race, most are, and it assumes a good spot on the card.  The Dirt Mile was on a lot of people's short list for races for years, and it finally comes to fruition in '07.  And the Juvenile Turf adds a 1 mile race for 2yos on the grass, partially to stimulate grass breeding and racing in the US, and partially to appease the Euros.

To make the day work, the Breeders Cup inserts the three new races on to the Friday card.  This not only a perfectly sensible move, it's in keeping with prior years, as in most prior years, the Breeders Cup put together a fun card on Friday for horses that weren't good enough to compete on the grand stage.  The new races seem in keeping with that.  Until we get...

2008: The Reconfiguration.  The Breeders Cup doubles down on expansion by adding another three races that are a bit more dubious in their nature.  They add the Marathon in an effort to promote distance racing, first at the 12 furlong distance, which is later expanded to 14 furlongs.  The girls get their own 2yo grass race in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.  And a Turf Sprint is added.

The equally large development, however, is how these races are added to the card.  Most pundits thought immediately that they'd simply add the new three races to Friday's card and leave Saturday intact.  Instead, the Breeders Cup had another idea: Filly Friday.  All the races involving the fairer sex are moved to Friday, including the Juvenile Fillies, Distaff (now stupidly renamed the "Ladies Classic") and the F&M Turf, while all the new "male races" (Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile, Juvenile Turf, Marathon) are slotted on Saturday.  We'll discuss below why this has been a disaster, but first let's note the final steps:

2009 - 2011: Tinkering.  Filly Friday has remained more or less intact, with some additions.  In '09 and '10, the Marathon was moved to Friday to start the card, while this year, a 15th race (the Juvenile Sprint--a concept we advocated 3 years ago) leads off the Friday card.  In sum this leads to the following lineups for Breeders Cup weekend:

Friday: Juvenile Sprint, JF Turf, F&M Sprint, Juvenile Fillies, F&M Turf, Distaff

Saturday: Marathon, Juv. Turf, Sprint, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile, Turf, Juvenile, Mile, Classic.

*          *          *

We are not fans of the current configuration, whether or not it's called Filly Friday.  Why?  Glad you asked.

1.  It's a misnomer.  For the last 3 years, there have been non-filly races on the Friday.  (Okay, this is not really a big deal.)

2.  It divides up the great races.  Part of the fun of Breeders Cup Saturday was seeing the best horses on the same card.  By commingling the minor races with the big races, we get two decent days of racing instead of one great one with a fun warmup day.  Now, neither seems as special.

3.  The best fillies don't run on Friday.

Let's reiterate this point: the idea of giving the ladies their own day has completely backfired because the best fillies have run in the Saturday races pretty much every year.  For example:

2008: Zenyatta wins the Distaff on Friday, but international superstar Goldikova wins the Mile on Saturday.

2009: Zenyatta and Goldikova win the Classic and Mile...on Saturday.

2010: The three best fillies to run that weekend, Zenyatta, Goldikova and Proviso, run in the Classic and Mile on Saturday.

We're about to see more of the same in 2011.  Goldikova is back for a run at the boys in the Mile.  Havre de Grace is going to run in the Classic.  Even the Filly and Mare Turf is going to get hit this year: European shippers Midday and Sarafina are going to run in the Turf on Saturday.  In sum, almost every filly of note will be running on Saturday, making the "Filly Friday" designation completely meaningless, and making the division of the races look arbitrary.

*          *          *

What to do?  Easy: re-configure the races.  Let's put aside for now the ideas of disbanding the Juvenile Fillies Turf, adding a 16th race (which we advocated a few years ago--namely, a mile on turf for older fillies) or renaming the races, and just work with the 15 races as currently constituted.  We see three ways to do this, with the sidenote that the order of races on a particular day should not be set in stone.

1.  The Classic Format.  There have been 7 new races added since 2007.  Let's put them all on Friday, and make them the warmup for Saturday's classic championship card.  That would mean:

Friday: Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile Sprint, Turf Sprint, Filly Sprint, Juvenile Turf, Dirt Mile

Saturday: Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile, Filly and Mare Turf, Sprint, Mile, Distaff, Turf Classic.

Advantage: The most logical solution, as it keeps the "old" races together on Saturday and gives the new ones their own date.

Disadvantage: Friday is marginalized in the mainstream media by being truly niche races.

2.  Championship Saturday.  Eight of the Breeders Cup races directly correspond to Eclipse Awards.  How about we just divide the races that way?

Friday: Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile Sprint, Turf Sprint, Juvenile Turf, Dirt Mile, Mile

Saturday: Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile, Fillly Sprint, Sprint, Filly and Mare Turf, Turf, Distaff, Classic

Advantage: Saturday is truly "US/World Championship day" as most of the winners will take Eclipse Awards at the end of the day.  This should be the easiest storyline for the mass media to promote.

Disadvantage: Only two turf races on Saturday.


3.  Juvenile Friday.  If we want to give a discreet group of horses Friday, let's give it to the horses that can't bleed over into other races : the two year olds.  Friday's card could be billed as the "Stars of Tomorrow", which is a lot more interesting than focusing on a horse's gender.  It would give the press a chance to give the Juvenile its due--rather than relegating it to a background story on the same day as the Classic--and start hyping the Kentucky Derby.  It  may even give the Juvenile Fillies winner some actual press.  And from a selfish perspective, it would get some of the traditionally chalkiest races off of Saturday's card.

It wouldn't be completely perfect because we know the BC wants six races on Friday's card so it can have an all-stakes Pick Six.  Fine.  Let's move the least important race to Friday, making the lineups:

Friday: Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile Sprint, Juvnile Fillies, Juvenile Turf, Juvenile.

Saturday: Filly Sprint, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile, Filly and Mare Turf, Sprint, Mile, Distaff, Turf, Classic.

We initially went into this post thinking we'd want the first option--simple reversion, but have to admit the last card is what we like best.  The lineup for Saturday includes 6 of the original 8 races, adds in the Filly Sprint--a  championship race in its own right--plus the two new races that have been the most chaotic.  It would be a great betting card.


So Breeders Cup, take heed.  Any of the three suggestions above work better than the current slate of races.  We hope to see a new schedule at Santa Anita next year.