2016 Breeders Cup Preview Part 2: Saturday's Races

Nine races to preview, let's get to it:

Juvenile Fillies

Synopsis: 1 1/16 miles for 2 year old girls on the dirt.  As always, we recommend that you either go with the chalk or a bomb in this race.  Picking a horse between 8-1 and 20-1 to win has been a disastrous proposition. Fortunately, the lowest price on the morning line is 9-2 and over half the field is below 12-1.

Favorite: It's a little unclear who's going to go off the favorite in this race, but we'll take a guess it'll be Noted and Quoted, who won the local prep (the Chandelier Stakes) in her last.  She's trained by Bob Baffert and has nice tactical speed.  That said, she doesn't hold much of an edge over the rest of the field.

Price Horse to Consider: Sweet Loretta is 6-1 on the morning line but we expect a higher price than that - she hasn't been out in 2 months, dead-heated in her last, and hasn't run particularly fast.  Whatever.  She's trained by Pletcher, cost a fortune at auction and is perfectly bred for this type of race.  If Todd's got her ready to run, she's dangerous.

Betting Approach:  Spread.  This race was a lot easier years ago when the runners actually had run a bunch of times and we could assess their form.  Here, the 12 entrants have run a total of 34 times - less than 3 starts per runner on average.  It's a lot of guesswork.

Selections: Let's do a little process of elimination.  We don't buy Jamyson n' Ginger repeating her gigantic speed figure when it's a fast track, and also don't like Rudy Rodriguez shipping cross-country (so we'll also toss Colorful Charades).  Union Strike's had 2 good starts but has a new trainer because the owner fired the prior trainer - who was also his daughter! - and replaced her with Craig Dollase, who stinks.  We don't love American Gal stretching out in the 12 post.  And Dancing Rags, Daddy's Lil Darling, Champagne Room and With Honors all look too slow.  We'll side with Yellow Agate on the improve and otherwise just cross our fingers.

1.  Yellow Agate
2.  Noted and Quoted
3.  Sweet Loretta

Filly and Mare Turf

Synopsis:1 1/4 miles on the turf for fillies and mares.  This race has developed into one of our favorites over time because it's had a mixture of everything: Hall of Famers, complete shockers, memorable performances and great stories.  Speaking of which...

Favorite: Lady Eli is going to be the focus of 800 soft-focus tales this week, and it's a great story.  She won the Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2014 over this same track, looking like an absolute star.  She confirmed that her three year old year, winning her next three races with aplomb, and people were talking Eclipse Award for her (which would be unusual - turf horses never win the 3 year old Eclipse Awards).  Less than a week after her big Belmont Oaks victory, she stepped on a nail, contracted laminitis and nearly died.  Trainer Chad Brown took a year and nursed her back to health, and she came back to the races in August, losing her comeback in Saratoga by a head but winning the Flower Bowl in her last.  The fact she's alive is amazing; the fact that she has won a Grade 1 this year is insane.

Price Horse to Consider:  Sentiero Italia is about as hard-knocking a horse as you'll get.  She has good tactical speed, consistently runs a solid race, and is always near the front at the end.  We don't think she's good enough to win this race, but don't toss her from your exactas and trifectas.  If you want a total bomb, Japanese shipper Nuovo Record was running fabulously last year, but is not in the best form this year.  If she somehow reverts to her 2015 self, look out.

Betting Approach: Somewhat narrow.  We think only 4 horses have a legitimate shot at winning this race.

Selections:There should be a TON of speed in this race, including Catch a Glimpse (who won the Juvenile Fillies Turf last year), Pretty Perfect (who is basically a rabbit), Avenge, and Zipessa.  We think this sets up for a closer, and while we think Lady Eli has a shot, we're more interested in her stablemate, Sea Calisi, who had no shot in the paceless Flower Bowl.  We think she improves off that effort and mows down her stablemate in the stretch while holding off European imports Seventh Heaven and Queen's Trust, both of which have big shots as well.

1.  Sea Calisi
2.  Queen's Trust
3.  Seventh Heaven

Sprint

Synopsis: 6 furlongs on the dirt for the brave and the fleet.  Last year's winner Runhappy probably would have been the favorite here, but his connections went for the Dirt Mile instead, which is a tougher race at a distance he doesn't like for less money.  Sounds like a great plan.

Favorite: Masochistic is going to be the worst favorite of the entire weekend, especially if he's anywhere near his 2-1 morning line price.  Sure, he has two wins this year and has a pair of nice speed figures.  Those two wins came against a total of 6 opponents, and his last win was in a 3-horse field where nobody else challenged him for the lead.  They were also at longer distances; he has a career terrible record at 6 furlongs (5 starts, 1 win, 1 second).  He's as likely to finish last as he is to win.

Price Horse to Consider: We're not sure if his 15-1 morning line is realistic, but Limousine Liberal merits a very close look especially underneath.  He's been in the exacta 6 of 7 times at the distance, and ran a really nice second in the Phoenix last out.  Importantly, that was his first start with blinkers.  Solid chance they made the difference and made him a real contender.

Betting Approach: Narrow.  We're against the three year olds in this race - neither Mind Your Biscuits nor Noholdingback Bear has run fast enough to competitive, and we don't trust Drefong once he gets challenged on the front end.  Delta Bluesman looks too slow.  And in case it wasn't clear, we're against Masochistic.

Selections: We had a long exposition on how we loved Lord Nelson in this spot, but he scratched yesterday with an injury.  Bah.  To heck with it. We're going with our longshot to win..

1.  Limousine Liberal
2.  A.P. Indian 
3.  Drefong

Turf Sprint

Synopsis: 6 1/2 furlongs down the hill for everyone interested.  We usually crap on this race but this is by FAR the best field it's drawn since it was inaugurated in 2008.  There are multiple horses in here that would have been competitive in the Mile and have been competing in legitimate Grade 1 races the last two years.  It's not just a collection of Grade 3 horses trying to get a big paycheck.  That doesn't make it any easier to decipher, of course.

Favorite: This is another race where you could see favoritism going in a few directions, but we think it'll ultimately land on Obviously, who's run in the Breeders Cup Mile the last 4 years.  He was perpetually the pace-setter and usually faded after 6 furlongs, so you can see why they want to cut him back in distance.  That said we're dubious - he's getting a new jockey, hasn't had a ton of success at this track or at the distance, and he is 8 years old.  Wouldn't surprise us if he's won, but we're going to look elsewhere.

Price Horse to Consider: Two of the three horses we like are going to be a fair price and we'll discuss below.  For a total bomb, why not Calgary Cat, who won his last and seems to like the distacne?

Betting Approach: Spread.  In this race, it's always spread.

Selections:  Om has always been a horse that we've been high on and we love him on the turnback here.  He's extremely talented on both surfaces and we think the cutback suits him well.  He's also the answer to this random trivia question:

Yep, he's the horse to beat American Pharoah in his first start.  Underneath we like Celestine, who had a huge win in the Just a Game back on Belmont Day, and Home of the Brave, who's the best of the Euros.

1.  Om
2.  Celestine
3.  Home of the Brave

Juvenile

Synopsis:1 1/16 miles on the dirt.  After this race being fairly irrelevant for the purposes of the Kentucky Derby for years, last year's winner Nyquist won the Derby, and the winner two years ago (Texas Red) validated how good American Pharoah was.  So maybe it's back to being germane to three year old form?

Favorite: There are quite literally 5 horses we could see favored in this race, not because they all look the same, but because they all have different positive attributes.  The morning line favorite is Not This Time, who romped in the Iroquois in late September and has been the subject of a lot of chatter among horse cognoscenti.  We think favoritism is more likely to go to either Syndergaard, who ran an excellent second in the Champagne after hotly contesting the pace - and yes, we do think he'll get bet from casual fans because of the name - or Gormley, who won the Front Runner stakes handily in his last.  Californians often make California horses the favorite.

Price Horse to Consider: We had never heard of Jose Pinchin before a few weeks ago, but he comes in with Three Rules, who's undefeated in 5 starts in Florida, all in fairly convincing fashion.  Yes, he's never taken on horses better than Florida-breds, and he has early speed that might get fried here.  But he has sneaky-good breeding (we love Gone Astray as a sire and think he just needs better mares) and has been working out splendidly.  He'll be at least 10-1 and merits strong consideration.

Betting Approach: Spread.  We're not in love with the three longest shots in this race (Term of Art, Lookin at Lee, Star Empire) but can make a credible case for the rest.

Selections:  Working backwards again, we don't love Gormley as we think he basically lucked into an uncontested lead and walked to a win in the Front Runner.  That ain't happening again.  Syndergaard is probably a 1-turn horse.  Theory doesn't have enough distance foundation.  Practical Joke, who rode the best part of the track and a gift setup last time, doesn't seem fast enough to us.  We have some interest in Klimt and we'll probably use him defensively, but we don't love the rail draw and have to draw a line somewhere.  We're siding with Classic Empire, who would probably be in here undefeated if he hadn't lost his rider coming out of the gate in the Hopeful.  His Breeders' Futurity was really a nice performance, and we expect to see some improvement on it.

1.  Classic Empire
2.  Not This Time
3.  Three Rules

Turf

Synopsis: 1 1/2 miles on the sod for all comers.  In the last 20 runnings, 14 of the 21 winners (there was a dead-heat in '03) were Europeans that shipped in, and another (Main Sequence) was a Euro who campaigned in America all year.  Of the 6 Americans, 4 were prices (Buck's Boy, Little Mike, Better Talk Now and Johar) and only two were really considered championship caliber horses: English Channel and Chief Bearhart.  In short - be very wary taking a stateside horse to win, especially at a short price.

Favorite: Flintshire looks to do what Main Sequence did two years ago - spend the year in the US, win our turf races, then take the Breeders Cup Turf.  He was pretty dominant in his first three races, but ran a bad 2nd in his last to Ectot on a yielding turf.  Most will excuse that as a race where he didn't like the surface but we're a little concerned.  Clearly he prefers a hard surface (which he'll get Saturday) but he had a class edge on the field and really wasn't compromised by a bad trip.  Definitely need to use, but be wary.

Price Horse to Consider: Money Multiplier has never won a graded stakes race and finished 3 lengths behind Flintshire in his last race.  And yet, we're very interested at 20-1 or higher.  His Sword Dancer two back was really good, as was his allowance race before that, and he had a sneaky really good second in the United Nations before that, which was also not on a firm turf.  We think he's on the upswing and will benefit even more from Santa Anita's hard surface.  Very live.

Betting Approach: Narrow.  We think a chunk of this field has no business running this weekend (looking at you, Rallis, Twilight Eclipse, Ashleluvssugar, Texas Ryano), that Da Big Hoss has had a good year beating up on cheap horses, and that Ulysses isn't good enough.  We're also against Highland Reel, we know he ran 2nd in the Arc, but somehow this races seems like an afterthought to his connections.  Finally, Mondialiste is in the wrong race.  He should be in the Mile.

Selections: We have been very impressed with Found's 4 year old season, which in the last month and a half has included a win in the Arc (Europe's big race) and an excellent second to Almanzor in the Champion Stakes last out.  Heck, she beat Minding in September, and Minding may be the best turf horse on earth.  If she keeps her form and takes to the track, she should repeat, and lay waste to this Arc-Breeders Cup "curse."  Underneath, we'll use all of Flintshire, Money Multiplier and Ectot, whose win in the Hirsch last out shouldn't be overlooked.

1.  Found
2.  Money Multiplier
3.  Ectot

Filly and Mare Sprint

Synopsis: 7 furlongs on the dirt for fillies and mares three years old and up.  We have no idea why this is the third-to-last race on the card, rather than the Juvenile, regular Sprint, or frankly, anything else.  It's an okay race.  But hardly deserving of a prime time spot.

Favorite: Haveyougoneaway hasn't been out of the exacta this year and exits a nice win at the distance in the Ballerina.  She's 3-1 on the morning line and she's a good value play if she's that price.  By contrast, Carina Mia is going to get bet and we don't like her at all.  We remind everyone that 3 year olds are terrible plays in this race - they never win and are underrepresented in exactas.

Price Horse to Consider:  We don't understand remotely what the heck Ian Kruljac is doing with Finest City but she's not impossible here at a price.  Her start in the Santa Monica at the start of the year was a good 7 furlong effort, as was her sprint back in April.  Then for some reason he stretched her out to a mile, then threw her on the turf at middle distances where she was okay-not-great.  So she's turning back and switching surfaces.  We feel like anything between a DAFL and a romp at a big number is in play.

Betting Approach:  Spread.  Almost everyone is in the 92-99 speed figure range.

Selections: Not only do we not like Carina Mia, we don't see Wavell Avenue repeating last year's win, her form is just too spotty.  We like the horses exiting the Ballerina and will take them over our goofy longshot, and maybe a piece of Wonder Gal at a huge number.

1.  Haveyougoneaway
2.  Finest City
3.  By the Moon

Mile

Synopsis:1 mile on the turf for the fast and the strong.  Our favorite race every year somehow got the on deck circle again in the race sequence.  Whatever.  We think this race is a lot of fun.

Favorite: Last year's winner Tepin is back and has had a really excellent year: 6 wins in 7 starts over five different tracks, including Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Woodbine and Royal Ascot.  Her Queen Anne Stakes win at Ascot was a really neat victory, but since then she's had a workman-like victory in the Woodbine Mile and lost in the First Lady.  Has she tailed off from her best form?  Or did she just have good excuses in her last two (long layoff, front runner freaked)?  One of the toughest reads of the day.

Price Horse to Consider: There are a few.  Everyone is presuming Midnight Storm is going to get fried up front.  Maybe.  But don't overlook that he's won three straight in front-running style through tough fractions, and is working out well coming into this race.  Spectre has been competitive all year in Europe (if rarely victoriious) and adds Lasix.  Shades of Domedriver, who won this at 26-1 in 2002.  And then there's last year's Juvenile Turf winner, Hit It a Bomb, who's sown very litle this year in 3 starts, but maybe just needs to return to the US and a harder surface.  We simply can't dismiss him based on how well he closed last year.

Betting Approach: Spread.  To us, there are a two key questions in this race - what do you do with Tepin (discussed above) and what do you do with Limato, the European shipper who's excellent at 6-7 furlongs but not much of a performer at a mile?  We're leaning against both.  There's just too much good competition in this race to take horses with these flaws at short prices.

Selections: Our feeling on the race shape is that there's going to be a lot of early speed - Photo Call, Midnight Storm, What a View, maybe Tepin, maybe Limato - that a strong closer is the way to go.  There's none better here than Ironicus, who has had success at longer distances and ran a great 2nd in the Shadwell last out.  We are professed fanboys for trainer Shug McGaughey, but we think he's the best horse here and is sitting on a huge effort.  He's probably our best bet of the weekend.  Underneath, we like the best Euro, Alice Springs, and Miss Temple City, who's had a really nice year that's gotten overlooked and may sit a good trip just off the frontrunners.

1.  Ironicus
2.  Miss Temple City
3.  Alice Springs

Classic

Synopsis:1 1/4 miles on the dirt for all comers.  Yes we know, we usually do a whole separate post on this race.  But we admit we're a little pressed for time and besides, we think most of this field isn't competitive.

Favorite: 2014 Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome had something of a lost 2015 and was forgotten after American Pharoah's Triple Crown last year.  But he's had a great 2016 - after winning his first start at Santa Anita, he shipped to Dubai, won a prep race and the $10 million Dubai World Cup, then came back and won the San Diego Handicap, Pacific Classic and Awesome Again, each in dominating fashion over the best handicap horses, including Dortmund and Beholder.  He's living proof that horses really peak at age 5 and makes us wonder what other Derby winners could have done had they stayed in training (we're looking at you, Big Brown and Point Given).  Alas.

Second Choice.  Arrogate came into the Travers having made 4 starts for Bob Baffert and showing some good talent in allowance races.  Then this happened:

Jesus.  That translated to a 122 Beyer, and was the fastest Travers ever.  It's a tall order to ask him to duplicate that, but man.

Price Horse to Consider: He's gotten no attention, but Shaman Ghost has turned into a nice horse. Last year he won the Queens Plate in Canada - their equivalent of the Kentucky Derby - and was given the rest of the year off after losing his next race.  He came to the States this year and after losing an allowance race, won the Brooklyn Handicap (at 12 furlongs!), overagressively ran in the Suburban and lost, before pulling off an upset in the Woodward, a Grade 1 at 9 furlongs.  He likes to run long, runs best fresh, is on the improve and has good tactical speed.  He's going to need some luck to win.  But to hit the board at 30-1?  We're very interested.

Betting Approach: Narrow.  We have now named every horse we think can win this race.  No, we're not buying Frosted, who ran a great Met Mile but we think wants no part of 10 furlongs, or Melatonin, who hasn't run in 5 months.

Selections:  We're not going to get too creative here.  California Chrome is the best horse in the world, and has had a great year.  Unless Arrogate duplicates his Travers, he should win this going away.  And it would be a great cap to a stellar year by the former Derby champ.

1.  California Chrome
2.  Shaman Ghost
3.  Arrogate

Enjoy the Breeders Cup everyone!!

2014 Belmont Stakes Preview Part II: The Countdown

Since we started following racing in the early '90s, there have been 8 horses that have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown.  We have picked against each and every one of them.  Now in one respect, we've been right each and every time, as none of the Derby-Preakness winners have come back and won the Triple Crown.  But our picks...well, this chart sums it up and brings back some horrific memories:

Year	TC Candidate	Our Pick	Our Pick’s Finish	Winner
1997	Silver Charm	Crypto Star	4th	Touch Gold
1998	Real Quiet	Parade Ground	4th	Victory Gallop
1999	Charismatic	Best of Luck	4th	Lemon Drop Kid
2002	War Emblem	Sunday Break	3rd	Sarava
2003	Funny Cide	Dynever	4th	Empire Maker
2004	Smarty Jones	Rock Hard Ten	5th	Birdstone
2008	Big Brown	Denis of Cork	2nd	Da’Tara
2012	I’ll Have Another	Union Rags	1st (!!)	Union Rags

So by and large, we're good for picking the horse that rounds out the superfecta, and our one win came the year the horse going for the Crown scratched.  Brilliant.  Still, we would like to think that it is not hopeless to handicap the Belmont when the Triple Crown is on the line.  And we are riding a streak of picking consecutive Belmont winners.  More importantly, we do think we have a good feel for this year's edition.  So let's get to the countdown, from the worst of the 11 entrants to our pick.  As always, we're assuming the track is fast and relatively fair.

Remember Da'Tara!

11.  Matterhorn. Since breaking his maiden last year, this well-bred and expensive Todd Pletcher steed has run no better than third and has never been closer than 6 1/4 lengths to the winner of a race.  Every year we get rich owners with a well-bred horse taking a stab at the Belmont, either because they think he'll prevail on breeding alone or because they want good seats and to impress their friends in Greenwich.  Almost every year, the horse runs horribly.

10.  Matuszak. Spent his last two races futilely chasing Kid Cruz, who found the Triple Crown waters too deep in the Preakness and is skipping the Belmont for the ungraded Easy Goer stakes earlier on the card.  I suppose the connections of Matuszak figured they can't beat Kid Cruz, so they may as well look elsewhere, and oddly, arrived at the Belmont Stakes.  Oh.

9.  General a Rod.  This guy does his best running on the lead and seems to have distance limitations, a combination that's deadly in the Belmont.  We do think his presence matters though because he'll keep California Chrome honest if he chooses to run fast early.  But to win?  No.  He should be done before the far turn and ready for a vacation.

8.  Medal Count.   There are three horses in the Belmont that have more than two wins.  One is California Chrome, the other two are this guy and the next guy.  The reason we're discounting 3-time winner Medal Count is exactly the same as the Derby - show us a good performance on the dirt before we commit to you.  Sure, the Derby was a rodeo race for this guy, and he never really got running.  But we doubt it would have mattered.  Send him back to the turf, please.

7.  Samraat. His 5 wins in 7 starts belies the fact that he isn't bred to go 12 furlongs, has shown no desire to run further than 10 furlongs, and his early speed will probably cook him after 8 furlongs.  It's too bad he's not running in the Woody Stephens earlier on the card (at 7 furlongs!), where he'd be a fascinating entry.  Here, he's merely pace fodder.

Don't Take the Bait

6.  Ride on Curlin. One of the very few things we got right in our Preakness prediction was that this guy would have a new jockey in the Belmont.  Voila, John Velazquez is on board, replacing Joel Rosario.  (The reason why, we'll get to shortly.)  We're still not biting on this guy in the win slot, though.  He still remains winless in a stakes race, doesn't seem to want to flaunt much in the way of tactical speed, and was barely gaining on California Chrome late in a weaker race.  We're also completely unconvinced that his breeding screams 12 furlongs - yes, Curlin is fine as a sire, but his dam was a sprinter out of a rank (albeit good) sprinter.   There are plenty of horses with good dam-side breeding for 12 furlongs, this isn't one of them.  We think the rigors of the Triple Crown catch up to him this race and he's nowhere to be found in the stretch.

5.  Commanding Curve. He is very well bred for the distance, but is similarly challenged in the win column.  We're also completely unconvinced that he isn't just this year's version of Invisible Ink, Wheelaway, Nehro, Golden Soul, Ice Box, and Make Music For Me  - a horse that runs much better than expected in the Derby, skips the Preakness to rest for the Belmont, but ends up regressing at Big Sandy.  Lastly, his past performances indicate a plodder that clunks up late.  That doesn't bode well for Saturday in a race that more often than not demands from the winner a modicum tactical speed.

Make it 37 Years

4.  California Chrome. Yeah, we've picked against him twice and looked stupid.  And you know what?  If we look stupid again Saturday, we'll be thrilled.  Make no mistake, we are rooting for this guy.  We've thoroughly enjoyed his run this winter and spring.  He's a really, really nice horse, has great tactical speed, and has gotten some great rides from Espinoza.  We think he'd be a worthy Triple Crown winner, and no matter what happens on Saturday, we want him to run a lot more this year, next year and in 2016.  Which we think is probable if he loses - his breeding isn't exactly the type that's going to get a great stud deal.

But as to his chances in the big race....we're less than sanguine. We've already been on the record twice with our reservations and they haven't changed - he hasn't had a bad trip yet, is susceptible to speed horses (of which there are several in this race), and we're concerned about jockey error in the pressure cooker.  Now throw in 3 races in 5 weeks, or more accurately, 4 races in 9 weeks.  And throw in the fact that he is not bred for 12 furlongs.  And that in both of his last two races, he looked like he was slowing down in the final furlong, indicating, as we suspect, that he's an elite 9 furlong horse and just okay at a route.

People are equating him to Affirmed, who had tactical speed and made his own racing luck.  We don't agree.  We see Smarty Jones redux - a great miler who could win at longer than 9 furlongs on his best day but would burn himself out at long distances against long-winded horses.  We think he's spent by the top of the stretch, gets passed by each of the next three horses, and recuperates this summer in California to prepare for the Breeders Cup.

Contenders

3.  Wicked Strong.  All things being equal, his Derby wasn't terrible.  He had a bad stumble out of the gate, was caught in some bad traffic around both turns, but still had enough power to get up for 4th even with a moderate/slow pace in front of him.  We're siding with others over him because he is a closer in the Belmont, and historically, deep closers are up against it while closers that lie a little closer to the pace have a better shot.  It depends just how far back jockey Rajiv Maragh wants to keep this guy; if it's 10 lengths, we don't like him to win, but if it's just 5-6 lengths, then he has a big shot.  The only real thing not to love is his price; we think he'll be around 9-2, which is okay, but not great.  By contrast...

2.  Commissioner. This guy is going to be around 20-1, even though he's perfectly bred for the distance, has Todd Pletcher in his corner and has a shot.  Now there are good reasons why this guy is going to be a long price - he completely no-showed in the Arkansas Derby against the likes of Ride of Curlin, was a non-threatening third in the Sunland Derby against lower-level competition, and was well behind General A Rod in the Fountain of Youth.  So if we're simply going off his prior races against top-shelf horses, he comes up well short.  But his 2nd in the Peter Pan last out was encouraging; he showed good tactical speed under a more aggressive ride by new jockey Javier Castellano - who's back aboard on Saturday - and finished well against a good winner.  If he takes that more aggressive tactic and stays near the pace, we think he'll be a factor come the stretch, because he's bred up and down for the distance.  Very, very live.

The Pick

1.  Tonalist. We have been waiting to bet this horse in the Triple Crown since he broke his maiden at Gulfstream in impressive fashion.  His next start was in a salty allowance race, won by Constitution (who won the Florida Derby next out), where Tonalist ran a very good second on a track where horses off the pace had no shot.  Importantly, the 4th place finisher in that race was Wicked Strong, who came back to win the Wood Memorial and run 4th in the Derby.

This guy missed the last round of preps with an injury.  So instead of trying to shoehorn into the Derby picture, trainer Christophe Clement - who's second to none when it comes to turf horses, and just hasn't had many good dirt runners - waited for the Peter Pan, the local prep for the Belmont.  After a slow start, jockey Joel Rosario pushed him to the front and had him set a moderate pace, and he won easily by 2 1/2 lengths over Commissioner.  He looked great in the process, validating our impressions that this guy might be the best horse in this class of three year olds.

Two things concern us.  First, he's a little light on seasoning with only 4 career starts.  Traditionally horses that win the Belmont have had more experience under their belt; even bombs Da'Tara, Sarava and Ruler on Ice were well-raced.  This may not be coincidental; there's something to be said for having a bunch of races under your belt when asked to go 2-3 furlongs longer than you've ever raced before.  We're concerned, but think his distance breeding offsets the lack of foundation.

The second issue is his speed and 11 post - if he gets caught wide early, he may have to run and get in a speed duel.  But again, we're willing to take that chance because good early speed is more important than a late closing kick.  And he's got tactical speed, not flaunting speed.  He has the distance breeding.  And his connections are as good as they get.  There's a reason that Joel Rosario flew off of Ride on Curlin - he knows this horse is his best chance to win the Belmont.  We think he takes home the carnations on Saturday and extends the Triple Crown drought by yet another year.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the race!!

2014 Preakness Preview

Art Sherman, trainer of California Chrome

Unsurprisingly, we're not perfect.  California Chrome ran better in the Derby than we thought he would, but our biggest mistake was how we thought the race would unfold.  We thought there would be a blistering pace that would kill off his chances along with most of the other speed horses.  That didn't happen.  The 47-second half mile was the perfect setup for California Chrome: it kept him just off of leaders that had no real shot, out of traffic trouble, and in perfect position to pounce when he reached the far turn.

And did he ever pounce.  His move on the turn to the eighth pole clearly established that he was the best horse on May 3rd; his 5-length lead was diminished mostly because he wasn't ridden out hard to the finish line.  Had Victor Espinoza tried, we have no doubt he could have run half a second faster.  It just wasn't necessary - all the contenders were foiled by the lack of pace and/or horrendous traffic trouble.

So does that make California Chrome this year's Big Brown, or this year's Orb?  Let's take a look at the eclectic field for Saturday's Preakness and count them down from 10 to 1.  As always, we're assuming the track is fast and relatively fair.

What. The. Fuck.

10.  Ria Antonia.  There is questionable management of horses, there is poor management of horses, and then there is the management of Ria Antonia.  Let's take a look at what the connections of this poor filly have done to date:

• July 2013 - The horse starts her careerin the barn of Ricky Griffith, a low-profile trainer who learned the craft under the tutelage the excellent Mark Casse.  She breaks her maiden in her second start and runs an indifferent 4th in her third start on polytrack.

• October 2013 - Seemingly displeased with Griffith, the owner moves Ria Antonia to the barn of Jeremiah Englehart, who's not bad, and does his work on the East Coast.  She runs an indifferent 5th in the Frizette, Belmont's prep for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.

• November 2013 - Despite having nothing in her past performances that indicates she's any good, Ria Antonia is shipped to California for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.  Shockingly, she runs a huge race at 32-1, and crosses the line second to She's a Tiger, but is placed up to first when the stewards DQ She's a Tiger for interference.  It's the biggest win of Englehart's career, and evidence that he did a bang-up job with the horse in a short period of time.

• February 2014 - Ria Antonia  meets buzzsaw and eventual Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable in her next race, who wins by nearly 10 lengths.  In a great case of what-have-you-done-for-me-lately, her fourth place finish causes the owner to fire Englehart and replace him with super-trainer Bob Baffert.

• April 2014 - Baffert runs her in the Santa Anita Oaks, where she runs a decent second to Fashion Plate.  It's pretty clear that this horse likes Santa Anita's course; she's run two fabulous races there and so-so everywhere else.  But the Kentucky Oaks beckons, so Baffert ships her east.

• Early May 2014 - In the Kentucky Oaks, she's never a factor and runs an indifferent 6th.  She's now made 8 career starts  at 5 tracks under three trainers and has still never broken a 90 speed figure.

• Mid-May 2014: Seemingly displeased with one of the 5 best trainers on earth, Baffert is canned and the venerable Tom Amoss becomes her fourth trainer in 8 months.  The reason: the owner wants to take on the boys in the Preakness.

So we have a horse in the Preakness who has only won twice, once by a DQ, and has some clear preferences, none of which are satisfied by running in the Preakness, which is not run in California, is not against the ladies, is two weeks after her last start, and contains horses that are worlds faster than her.  It's an utterly insane move that makes no sense.  Let's hope that she takes a lot of dumb money and doesn't get injured on Saturday.  She could have a useful career on the West Coast if they would just leave her alone.

At Least Their Owners Get Free Tickets

9.  Pablo Del Monte.  In his last start resembling a dirt route, he showed early speed and faded miserably in the final furlongs.  Sadly, that was at a mile.  If there's an indication that he's going to enjoy the extra 330 yards the Preakness have to offer, it has eluded us.

8.  Ring Weekend.  The pride of the Florida minor league circuit, he won the Tampa Bay Derby in a minor upset and was crushed in the Calder Derby in his last.  There's a touch of interesting breeding that could keep you interested, but there doesn't seem to be much in the way of actual quickness, which seems to matter these days.

7.  Kid Cruz.  He's the local hope, having won both the Private Terms and Federico Tesio stakes in Maryland.  Of course, in his prior start, he lost a January race at the inner track at Aqueduct, which is never a good sign.  Magic Weisner was the last Maryland horse to invade the trifecta on Preakness Day 12 years ago; we think Kid Cruz makes it 13 years and counting.

A Chance, But Less Than You Think

6.  Bayern.  After a good maiden win, everyone was gaga for this horse when he won an allowance race at Santa Anita by 16 lengths in February.  He hasn't matched that effort since, in part because the quality of the opposition has gotten tougher.  After developing a minor injury, he ran an unimpressive third in the Arkansas Derby, setting the pace and fading in the stretch.  Since it seemed doubtful that he would qualify for the Derby, he ran in the Derby Trial - held a week prior to the big race - where he blazed the way and crossed the line first but was DQ'd to second when he bore out and interfered with the second place finisher.  He has the look of a speed freak that will be dangerous up to 6 furlongs, interesting at up to a mile, and merely a pace factor at a longer race.

5.  Ride on Curlin.  It's a little unusual to hear a jockey get excoriated for doing exactly what he was hired to do.  This relative outsider was manned by Calvin Borel in the Derby (his third jockey in as many races).  One would think that the instructions would be to take the horse to the inside, save ground, and ride the rail to the finish.  I mean, it's Calvin Borel.  He's known as Bo-Rail for a reason.  He won the Derby three times doing exactly that.

And he rode Ride on Curlin just that way in the Derby, shooting him over the to fence right after the break, saving ground, encountering some traffic trouble that made him go wide, and passing tiring horses in the stretch.  That got him 7th place.  The owner was displeased - he wanted Borel to move to the rail at some point before the first turn but not in the first 200 yards.  He's convinced that this cost them the entire race, even though his horse has never won a graded stakes race and would have needed wings to catch California Chrome.  While he's still eligible to hit the board by once again clunking up past tiring horses, we see no reason that Joel Rosario will coax a win out of him.  And Joel - don't plan on riding this horse again, even if you do exactly what you're supposed to do.

4.  Social Inclusion.  Of the new shooters, this one is likely to take the most money at the windows, and he'll probably be the 2nd choice come post time.  He's clearly talented, as his second career race was against early Derby favorite Honor Code, and he absolutely blew him out of the water.  That race was good enough for a 110 speed figure, the highest that any three year old this year, including Calfornia Chrome.

Off that race he was shipped to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial, where he was made the 8-5 favorite.  He broke well, went right to the front, set moderate/solid fractions (23:3, 47:2) and was clear at the top of the stretch...and was caught.  Not only was he caught by Wicked Strong, the winner of the Wood, but he was caught by Samraat, who sat just off the pace.  The problem is that while we like Samraat, we think he's established himself as solid horse that's a cut below the elite with distance limitations.  And the fact that Social Inclusion was caught by him is what disturbs us for Saturday.  We don't think Social Inclusion will rate, and doubt he can wire the field.  When better horses than Samraat come to challenge him, we think he wilts.

Contenders

3.  General a Rod.  We are well aware that we picked this guy 20th of 20th in our Kentucky Derby rankings and that he showed very little at Churchill.  But he's precisely the kind of horse that frequently outruns his odds in the Preakness - he ran multiple good races before the Derby, his Derby was a complete toss-out (his was, he never had a chance to do any real running), and importantly, he has good tactical speed.  The closers that were screwed at Churchill usually fair no better at the Preakness.  But there's a history of horses that actually can sit on or near the lead rebounding at Pimlico.  Oxbow, Lookin at Lucky, Shackleford and Louis Quatorze are the obvious examples because they won, but think also of AP Valentine (2nd in 2001 at 10-1), Sweetnorthernsaint (2nd in 2006 at 9-1), and the horse we think General a Rod most resembles, Jackson Bend (3rd in 2010 at 11-1).

We call it unlikely that this horse is wearing a garland of Black Eyed Susans at 7:00 p.m. on Saturday.  But his odds of winning are better than his morning line odds, and his odds of finishing in the money are a lot better than those we've already discussed.  Don't toss him from your exotic wagers.

2.  California Chrome.  We swear, we're not being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.  We admit that he's a really nice horse, ran well in the Derby and has had an excellent year so far.  We were against Smarty Jones in the 2004 Preakness; he won by a dozen lengths.  So we acknowledge that we may look crazy come Saturday evening if this guy improves on the Derby and just decimates the field.

But there's enough to be concerned about that we're leaning against him, especially at 3-5.  First, his Derby was a perfect ride and trip that basically can't be improved on.  And yet, he still ran a pitifully slow time and couldn't crack 100 on the Gowanus scale.  Sure, he wasn't pushed in the final yards, but he still was remarkably slow in the Derby.  Even though everything went his way.  We're concerned that if he doesn't sit a perfect trip again, he'll regress, which puts a host of others into contention.

Second, the two-week turnaround gives us pause.  Now we generally are pro horses making a quick return to the track.  But trainer Art Sherman isn't pleased with it, saying that he'd like to give the horse closer to seven weeks off.  On top of this fairly thorough schedule to date, we wonder if the rigors of the year will catch up to him in Baltimore, much like they did to Orb last year.

Look, we wouldn't be surprised to see him win easily.  And we don't think he'll finish out of the money.  But we think he'll get passed late by... 

The Pick

1.  Dynamic Impact. ...the winner of the Illinois Derby who skipped the Kentucky Derby, in part because the Illinois Derby doesn't count towards qualifying for the Kentucky Derby.  (Don't ask why.)  There's plenty to like here.  He took 5 starts to break his maiden but did so impressively.  The fact it took him 5 starts doesn't bother us since his lineage - by Tiznow, out of a Smart Strike mare, indicates a runner who will love distance but may take a few starts to get going.  The distance will not be an issue.  The rail draw is a nice bonus.  He has tactical speed that should put him in the second flight of horses, right behind California Chrome.

Most importantly, he has the highest last out speed figure.  Now we know that speed figures aren't gospel and are as much art as science.  But it's a tried-and-true rule that the horse with the highest out speed figure is the most likely winner, and simply playing that horse in every race will yield a minor loss after the takeout.  The reason is that the horse with the highest figure is usually the favorite.  But Dynamic Impact is 12-1 on the morning line, which we think is accurate, and may be higher depending on how much action Social Inclusion and Bayern take.  We'll side with the horse on the upswing with an underrated trainer (Mark Casse, great in Canada, mostly unknown in the States), excellent breeding, and has been working out well, and he's our pick to pull off the upset.

How to Play the Race

Dynamic Impact to win should net a nice return, and we like hedging by boxing him with California Chrome and General a Rod.  We'd also suggest looking at doubles with the Dixie, but are loathe to make any picks in that race, where we haven't cashed since Ops Smile's win in 1997.

Good luck to all and enjoy the Preakness!