2016 Preakness Preview

We're at a loss trying to think of a horse we've been wrong about more frequently than Nyquist.  So far we have publicly picked against him in the Breeders Cup' Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby; he's made us look foolish both times.  Privately, we've wagered against him another two times, and he won both of those races with ease.  Usually we're wrong with horses that constantly tease us by showing greatness that never actually puts it together.  (See: too many examples to count.)  Nyquist is the opposite.  He's already proven that he's a top quality horse; middling horses don't five Grade 1 races.  Our attempts to harp on flaws has kept us from picking him time and time again, perhaps just ignoring that he's really good.

But does that mean he's going to win the Preakness?  Let's count them down.  In a slight change from the past, we are not going to assume the track is fast - the forecast for Saturday in Baltimore is dreadful, so we're instead assuming there's a fair bit of moisture in the track.

They're Just Trying to Annoy Us

11.  Laoban.  Another maiden?  Really?  Can we put a stop to this please?

Make Sure You Spend Time at the Inner Harbor

10.  Fellowship.  He broke his string of uninspiring third-place finishes by running an even less inspired 4th in an undercard race on Derby Day.  This is trending in the wrong direction.

9.  Lani. His Derby was a little better than expected in that he actually finished the race ahead of half the field.  Of course, he had trouble leaving the gate, was never remotely in contention and didn't beat a horse of consequence, so it's not like we learned that he's the second coming of Sunday Silence. 

Cannon Fodder

8.  Awesome Speed.  It's the Tesio winner!  Annually we enjoy noting the winner of Maryland's local prep race that hasn't produced a good horse since we received First Communion.  This guy's record against poor horses in Maryland is utterly fabulous, and some people are actually interested in him because the horse he beat in the Tesio (Governor Malibu) came back to run a decent second in the Peter Pan.  That means nothing to us - Governor Malibu was gaining on a horse that was stretching out by 2 furlongs and would have been passed by a quality horse.  Also this colt is early speed in a race with a ton of other early foot.  Look for him to connect early with...

7.  Abiding Star. ...a horse that's won 5 straight races.  Somehow, in his last 4 wins, he has beaten a total of 17 horses, which seems impossible even in this day of smaller foal crops.  There's actually some vaguely interesting breeding here, but he's more early speed with no indication of latent staying power, which means he'll get fried competing with Awesome Speed and...

6.  Collected. ...the winner of the Lexington Stakes.  People often think that a good performance in the Lexington makes you a Preakness contender, and point to Lexington winner Touch Gold's outstanding 4th in the '97 Preakness as evidence.  That's just wrong.  The Lexington produced useful horses for the Preakness at one point; besides Touch Gold, Charismatic won it in '99 (with the Derby in between) and Classic Cat clunked up for 3rd after winning the '98 Lexington.  The next Lexington winner to hit the board in Maryland?  Divining Rod last year. 

The truth is that the Lexington doesn't get great horses.  It is generally the last-chance stop for horses desperately trying to make the Derby or a prep race for second-tier Preakness horses.  The Lexington gets horses that are competitive in the Preakness only if a lot of things go wrong with the contenders.  We don't see that here, and the fact that Collected is going to be on the lead with a lot of other speed makes it more likely that he finishes last than first.

The Interesting New Horses

2006 Preakness Winner Bernardini

5.  Stradivari.  We bet that any prognosticator that's picking a winner besides Nyquist and Exaggerator is going with this guy.  And it's not without reason - he has solid breeding, a fast win in his last, and is trained by Todd Pletcher.  And comparisons to 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini are inevitable - he also was well-bred and well-connected and entered off a blowout win against lesser company.  But we think it's a facile comparison.  This horse has only made one start this year: an allowance race where the only other good horse faded horribly after a half-mile, basically leaving Stradivari running uncontested for the final 5 furlongs.  We don't think he learned anything from the race and the margin of victory is meaningless.  By contrast, when Bernardini won the Preakness, he already had three starts in the year and had faced stakes company before the Preakness.  Stradivari hasn't done any of that, and we think that's a huge knock. We don't like a horse coming into a classic off of one race in 5 months.  And he's going to be wildly overbet: we think the 8-1 morning line on him is high.  He's got a shot to hang around for a piece but we prefer others.

4.  Cherry Wine.  This guy's case is pretty simple: he's one of two true closers in a race with a lot of early speed and he likes a wet track.  Can't see him winning.  Easily can see him closing for 3rd or 4th while never threatening the winners.

3.  Uncle Lino.  There are some things to like here.  He's had four straight solid performances in stakes races, even though he still hasn't won a graded stakes yet.  After pressing the pace and fading in the San Felipe, he sat off the pace just a little bit in the Santa Anita Derby with somewhat better results - he didn't fade in the stretch, but Exaggerator blew by him in the slop while Mor Spirit outgutted him for second.  He seemed to build off that a little bit in the ungraded California Chrome last out - it was a wire-to-wire job, but with relatively reasonable fractions against a field without speed.  We do think that if jockey Fernando Perez has learned something, it's that this guy can sit off a hot pace and stalk.  Our hope is that this is exactly what happens - he watches 3-4 horses go flying in front of him, makes a solid move on the turn right with or before Nyquist, and gives it a shot down the stretch.  He may not be fast enough to compete with the top 2, but he might get a perfect trip and be on the upswing to hit the board.  Don't ignore him at 20-1 or so.

Duh.

2.  Exaggerator. That Derby effort was pretty good.  It was a strong pace and he closed pretty stoutly into it, and was gaining on Nyquist late.  And he's going to get a wet track on Saturday, which moves him up in theory.  He has a huge shot and it would surprise nobody if he won the black-eyed susans, but we're siding with...

The Pick

An...interesting version of Nyquist's trainer

1.  Nyquist.  No, this is not a reverse jinx.  It's us coming to reality.  We don't think Nyquist is unbeatable.  We just don't think there's a horse in this race that's going to beat him.  Lani stinks.  6 of the 8 new shooters would have to run a career top to get 3rd.  Stradivari and Uncle Lino are mildly interesting but have to make up a lot of ground to win and have Nyquist regress.  Which leaves Exaggerator, who Nyquist has beaten all four times they've faced.  Fool us once, etc.  We think the race is going to set up perfectly for him, as he'll sit 4th or 5th about 3-4 lengths off the hot pace, and start running on the far turn once the pacesetters wilt.  And will have too much left for Exaggerator to pass in the stretch.  For the 3rd straight year, we think a Triple Crown will be on the line Belmont day.

Good luck to all and enjoy the Preakness!

2015 Preakness Preview

Every once in a while, form prevails in the Triple Crown.  There was a stretch that went on for two decades where being a favorite in the Derby was the kiss of death - not a single favorite won between Seattle Slew (1979) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000).  Since then favorites have fared slightly better: Street Sense ('07), Big Brown ('08), Orb ('13) and California Chrome ('14) all won as the chalk, while Smarty Jones, Super Saver and Barbaro were all well-supported.  And then there was this year's Derby, where the order of betting and order of finish were shockingly similar:

Horse	Betting Choice	Order of Finish
American Pharoah	1st	1st
Dortmund	2nd	3rd
Carpe Diem	3rd	11th
Firing Line	4th	2nd
Frosted	5th	4th
Materiality	6th	6th

We're reminded more than a little bit of the 2007 Derby.  That year, we knew we had a good class of horses, which included the 2yo champ, and discounted longshots accordingly.  The Derby results confirmed our pre-race thoughts:

Horse	Betting Choice	Order of Finish
Street Sense	1st	1st
Curlin	2nd	3rd
Scat Daddy	3rd	18th
Hard Spun	4th	2nd
Nobiz Like Shobiz	5th	10th
Circular Quay	6th	6th

Two things stand out.  The first is that in both races, the horses that were the biggest flops were heavily bet Todd Pletcher horses that skeptics rightly discounted.  If you want to know where the talk of Pletcher-The-Choker comes from, it's not really the 1-for-43 record, it's horses at short prices failing repeatedly in Kentucky.  Nobody's really holding it against Pletcher that Keyed Entry didn't run well in the Derby.  They do hold it against him when Carpe Diem, Scat Daddy, Gemologist, Verrazano and Bandini to run like world beaters in January through April but like garbage in Kentucky.

The second is that the Preakness results doubled-down on the Derby results. Not only did Curlin beat out Street Sense for the win, but Hard Spun took 3rd and Circular Quay ran 5th.  Going after new horses when the crop already looked strong was not a great idea.

So since we have 4 of the top 5 finishers in the Derby running in the Preakness, let's just run back the trifecta, right?  Not necessarily.  Let's count down the field in reverse order of likelihood to come away with a garland of black-eyed susans.  We're assuming the track is fast and fair - check the weather on Saturday, because this may not be the case.

Pimlico Race Course, home of the Preakness

I Mean, What's the Point?

8.  Tale of Verve.  The last horse that ran in a Triple Crown race and was this hopeless was when they ran a maiden in Big Brown's Belmont.  Tale of Verve has actually won a race (hooray!), though it was his last race, his 6th start overall, and returned a 74 speed figure.  That puts him a mere 20 lengths behind the key contenders from the Derby.  Dallas Stewart is a good trainer, Charles Fipke is (usually) a good owner, and this horse cost $440,000 at auction.  Why on earth are they throwing him to the wolves where he has no shot unless every other horse scratches?

Water Seems a Bit Deep

7.  Mr. Z.  Ahmed Zayat, the owner of American Pharoah, was so impressed with the quality of this horse that he decided to sell him to Calumet Farm on Wednesday, fully knowing that the new owners were going to run him in the Preakness and try to spoil American Pharoah's chances at a Triple Crown.  And who can blame Zayat?  The horse has only lost 13 straight race, his three by a combined 45 lengths.  I hope Calumet paid in cash.

6.  Bodhisattva.  It's the annual Preakness entry out of the Federico Tesio stakes!  Since Magic Weisner ran a good 2nd at 43-1 in 2002, the only other Tesio runner to hit the board in the Preakness was Ichabad Crane in 2008, where he ran a non-threatening third in a year where Big Brown scared off almost every other Derby competitor.  The field's a lot deeper this year than it was in 2008, and this horse doesn't look anywhere near as good as Ichabad Crane.

5.  Danzig Moon.  His fifth place finish in the Derby was about an unexciting as you can get.  He rated off the top 3 horses, sat 5th or 6th for much of the race, never closed the gap, and was passed by Frosted in the stretch.  He seems perfectly likely to run a stalking 5th where he never threatens the leaders or completely fades from the picture.

Concerned About the Timing

4.  Firing Line.  Since this guy ran a robust 2nd in the Los Alamitos Derby in his third start, trainer Simon Callahan took a less-is-more approach by intentionally spacing out Firing Line's next 3 starts, which were 49, 43 and 42 days apart.  He responded each time by running well, with a good second in the Robert Lewis, a win in the Sunland Derby (albeit against nobody) and a very nice 2nd at Churchill.  We know this guy's talented, but we're concerned about the very quick turnaround.  It's antithetical to everything else Callahan has done with the horse, and think he may regress off his last effort.  We get why he's running - he was right there with American Pharoah at the end, and should appreciate the shortening up in distance - but the analogue we keep coming back to is Lion Heart, who was gingerly managed in 2004, ran a solid 2nd in the Derby, and was nowhere in the Preakness.  We see this guy showing speed but fading on the far turn, then taking a brisk break from racing and reappearing in the Haskell in July.

The Most Likely Upsetters

3.  Dortmund.  Of the last 20 Preakness winners, 9 also won the Derby and 3 were new shooters (Red Bullet, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra).  The remaining 8 winners ran in the Derby and lost.  Roughly speaking, this octet falls into three categories:

     a.  Clearly Superior Talent.  These horses were the class of their generation that, for whatever reason, didn't get it done at Churchill Downs.  Sometimes it was inexperience (Curlin), sometimes it was they ran into a buzzsaw (Point Given), sometimes it was just one-of-those-days (Timber Country, Afleet Alex).  The Preakness is where they re-established themselves as the best horse of their class.

     b.  Trip From Hell.  Lookin' at Lucky is the obvious horse that falls into this category; you could argue Afleet Alex does too.  Basically, these were good horses that had bad trips in the Derby but rebounded once they got to Pimlico and dealt with a smaller field.  Importantly, both of these horses were highly regarded before the Derby.  Longshots that had bad trips in the Derby and run back to the Preakness generally don't run well, unless they're a...

     c.  Front Runners That Never Looked Back.  Louis Quatorze, Shackleford and Oxbow all went to the front pretty quickly out of the gate and were never caught.  Shackleford was the only one of the three that was seriously challenged at all during the race; honestly, we're still not sure how he won the Preakness.  Controlling the pace with early speed works in most horses races, it's hardly shocking that it does in the Preakness too.

So does Dortmund fall into any of these categories?  He didn't have a bad trip in the Derby; you could argue he had a perfect trip.  He could in theory steal the race on the front end, but it looks like an identical pace setup as the Derby, with maybe Bodhisattva adding some speed as well.

Which leaves us with the Clearly Superior Talent.  There's a real shot that he could pull a Curlin and turn the tables on American Pharoah if he's truly the better horse, which may be the case if the reports that he had colic a few days before the race are true and affected his performance.  But we don't think that's the case.  He had no visible excuse for fading in the final 1/8th of the Derby, and he looked inferior to the top two finishers.  He could rebound and move forward on Saturday, but we're skeptical, and think he's an excellent miler that's merely a good router.

2.  Divining Rod.  The X Factor.  Normally we're skeptical of the new shooters, because if you were any good, you would have run in the Derby.  The few times that new shooters have won or done very well in the Preakness are because they weren't in the Derby for unconventional reasons.  Red Bullet was intentionally held back by his owner even though he would have been the 2nd or 3rd choice in the 2000 Derby; he won the Preakness easily when he basically faced Fusaichi Pegasus and a bunch of stiffs.  Rachel Alexandra ran in the Kentucky Oaks, a natural goal for a 3yo filly.  When she won by the length of 4 football fields, her new owners wisely decided to try out the boys.  Bernardini and Rock Hard Ten (2nd in 2004) were making their 4th career starts and weren't able to run in the Derby, even though it was clear from their limited records that they were talented enough to compete in Grade 1 races.

Divining Rod may fall into this category too.  Well-bred for the turf (his dam won multiple graded stakes on the sod), after a start on the turf and in an off-the-turf maiden race, he was entered in the Sam Davis Stakes as something of a lark, and ran an good 2nd at 28-1.  He regressed in the Tampa Bay Derby where he was well-beaten by Carpe Diem and pointed for the Lexington, which is usually a last-ditch stop for horses looking to make the Derby.  He ran quite well, rating off a moderate/slow pace and pulling away convincingly in the stretch.  While he qualified for and could have run in the Derby, his connections opted to wait for the Preakness, concerned the Derby was too much too soon.  It wasn't a bad idea.  His speed figure was a new top that's just a shade below the American Pharoah/Firing Line/Dortmund trio, and he seems to be on the upswing.  And he's going to be around 12-1.  Definitely a contender if he builds off his Lexington.

The Pick

1.  American Pharoah.  Way to go out on a limb, we know.  But let's put aside the talent, which is obvious, and the fact that this race is going to set up for him perfectly again, with a small field and a coterie of horses that will give him something to track.  We're dealing with Bob Baffert, who is called a great Derby trainer, but is really an outstanding Preakness trainer.  He's come into this race with the Derby winner three times; all three of them repeated  He's come in twice with beaten Derby favorites (Point Given and Lookin at Lucky) and won both of those races.  He can get a top-shelf horse ready off of two weeks better than anyone other than mid-80s D. Wayne Lukas.  And promisingly, American Pharoah is making his 4th start of the year.  He should be on the upswing of a form cycle, not over the top.  We think he sits just off the leaders, moves to the outside of horses before the far turn, and has the race in hand by the 1/8th pole, giving us a big Belmont day.

How to Play the Preakness

Well American Pharoah is going to be all of 3-5, so a win bet isn't exactly enticing.  If you disagree with our analysis and want to take someone else to win, by all means, make a win bet, because they're going to be an okay price.  Otherwise, we say take AP-Divining Rod exactas, or if you're ambitious, try the Black Eyed Susan-Preakness double (we like Luminance and Sweetgrass in the former).

Good luck to all and enjoy the Preakness!

2014 Preakness Preview

Art Sherman, trainer of California Chrome

Unsurprisingly, we're not perfect.  California Chrome ran better in the Derby than we thought he would, but our biggest mistake was how we thought the race would unfold.  We thought there would be a blistering pace that would kill off his chances along with most of the other speed horses.  That didn't happen.  The 47-second half mile was the perfect setup for California Chrome: it kept him just off of leaders that had no real shot, out of traffic trouble, and in perfect position to pounce when he reached the far turn.

And did he ever pounce.  His move on the turn to the eighth pole clearly established that he was the best horse on May 3rd; his 5-length lead was diminished mostly because he wasn't ridden out hard to the finish line.  Had Victor Espinoza tried, we have no doubt he could have run half a second faster.  It just wasn't necessary - all the contenders were foiled by the lack of pace and/or horrendous traffic trouble.

So does that make California Chrome this year's Big Brown, or this year's Orb?  Let's take a look at the eclectic field for Saturday's Preakness and count them down from 10 to 1.  As always, we're assuming the track is fast and relatively fair.

What. The. Fuck.

10.  Ria Antonia.  There is questionable management of horses, there is poor management of horses, and then there is the management of Ria Antonia.  Let's take a look at what the connections of this poor filly have done to date:

• July 2013 - The horse starts her careerin the barn of Ricky Griffith, a low-profile trainer who learned the craft under the tutelage the excellent Mark Casse.  She breaks her maiden in her second start and runs an indifferent 4th in her third start on polytrack.

• October 2013 - Seemingly displeased with Griffith, the owner moves Ria Antonia to the barn of Jeremiah Englehart, who's not bad, and does his work on the East Coast.  She runs an indifferent 5th in the Frizette, Belmont's prep for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.

• November 2013 - Despite having nothing in her past performances that indicates she's any good, Ria Antonia is shipped to California for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.  Shockingly, she runs a huge race at 32-1, and crosses the line second to She's a Tiger, but is placed up to first when the stewards DQ She's a Tiger for interference.  It's the biggest win of Englehart's career, and evidence that he did a bang-up job with the horse in a short period of time.

• February 2014 - Ria Antonia  meets buzzsaw and eventual Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable in her next race, who wins by nearly 10 lengths.  In a great case of what-have-you-done-for-me-lately, her fourth place finish causes the owner to fire Englehart and replace him with super-trainer Bob Baffert.

• April 2014 - Baffert runs her in the Santa Anita Oaks, where she runs a decent second to Fashion Plate.  It's pretty clear that this horse likes Santa Anita's course; she's run two fabulous races there and so-so everywhere else.  But the Kentucky Oaks beckons, so Baffert ships her east.

• Early May 2014 - In the Kentucky Oaks, she's never a factor and runs an indifferent 6th.  She's now made 8 career starts  at 5 tracks under three trainers and has still never broken a 90 speed figure.

• Mid-May 2014: Seemingly displeased with one of the 5 best trainers on earth, Baffert is canned and the venerable Tom Amoss becomes her fourth trainer in 8 months.  The reason: the owner wants to take on the boys in the Preakness.

So we have a horse in the Preakness who has only won twice, once by a DQ, and has some clear preferences, none of which are satisfied by running in the Preakness, which is not run in California, is not against the ladies, is two weeks after her last start, and contains horses that are worlds faster than her.  It's an utterly insane move that makes no sense.  Let's hope that she takes a lot of dumb money and doesn't get injured on Saturday.  She could have a useful career on the West Coast if they would just leave her alone.

At Least Their Owners Get Free Tickets

9.  Pablo Del Monte.  In his last start resembling a dirt route, he showed early speed and faded miserably in the final furlongs.  Sadly, that was at a mile.  If there's an indication that he's going to enjoy the extra 330 yards the Preakness have to offer, it has eluded us.

8.  Ring Weekend.  The pride of the Florida minor league circuit, he won the Tampa Bay Derby in a minor upset and was crushed in the Calder Derby in his last.  There's a touch of interesting breeding that could keep you interested, but there doesn't seem to be much in the way of actual quickness, which seems to matter these days.

7.  Kid Cruz.  He's the local hope, having won both the Private Terms and Federico Tesio stakes in Maryland.  Of course, in his prior start, he lost a January race at the inner track at Aqueduct, which is never a good sign.  Magic Weisner was the last Maryland horse to invade the trifecta on Preakness Day 12 years ago; we think Kid Cruz makes it 13 years and counting.

A Chance, But Less Than You Think

6.  Bayern.  After a good maiden win, everyone was gaga for this horse when he won an allowance race at Santa Anita by 16 lengths in February.  He hasn't matched that effort since, in part because the quality of the opposition has gotten tougher.  After developing a minor injury, he ran an unimpressive third in the Arkansas Derby, setting the pace and fading in the stretch.  Since it seemed doubtful that he would qualify for the Derby, he ran in the Derby Trial - held a week prior to the big race - where he blazed the way and crossed the line first but was DQ'd to second when he bore out and interfered with the second place finisher.  He has the look of a speed freak that will be dangerous up to 6 furlongs, interesting at up to a mile, and merely a pace factor at a longer race.

5.  Ride on Curlin.  It's a little unusual to hear a jockey get excoriated for doing exactly what he was hired to do.  This relative outsider was manned by Calvin Borel in the Derby (his third jockey in as many races).  One would think that the instructions would be to take the horse to the inside, save ground, and ride the rail to the finish.  I mean, it's Calvin Borel.  He's known as Bo-Rail for a reason.  He won the Derby three times doing exactly that.

And he rode Ride on Curlin just that way in the Derby, shooting him over the to fence right after the break, saving ground, encountering some traffic trouble that made him go wide, and passing tiring horses in the stretch.  That got him 7th place.  The owner was displeased - he wanted Borel to move to the rail at some point before the first turn but not in the first 200 yards.  He's convinced that this cost them the entire race, even though his horse has never won a graded stakes race and would have needed wings to catch California Chrome.  While he's still eligible to hit the board by once again clunking up past tiring horses, we see no reason that Joel Rosario will coax a win out of him.  And Joel - don't plan on riding this horse again, even if you do exactly what you're supposed to do.

4.  Social Inclusion.  Of the new shooters, this one is likely to take the most money at the windows, and he'll probably be the 2nd choice come post time.  He's clearly talented, as his second career race was against early Derby favorite Honor Code, and he absolutely blew him out of the water.  That race was good enough for a 110 speed figure, the highest that any three year old this year, including Calfornia Chrome.

Off that race he was shipped to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial, where he was made the 8-5 favorite.  He broke well, went right to the front, set moderate/solid fractions (23:3, 47:2) and was clear at the top of the stretch...and was caught.  Not only was he caught by Wicked Strong, the winner of the Wood, but he was caught by Samraat, who sat just off the pace.  The problem is that while we like Samraat, we think he's established himself as solid horse that's a cut below the elite with distance limitations.  And the fact that Social Inclusion was caught by him is what disturbs us for Saturday.  We don't think Social Inclusion will rate, and doubt he can wire the field.  When better horses than Samraat come to challenge him, we think he wilts.

Contenders

3.  General a Rod.  We are well aware that we picked this guy 20th of 20th in our Kentucky Derby rankings and that he showed very little at Churchill.  But he's precisely the kind of horse that frequently outruns his odds in the Preakness - he ran multiple good races before the Derby, his Derby was a complete toss-out (his was, he never had a chance to do any real running), and importantly, he has good tactical speed.  The closers that were screwed at Churchill usually fair no better at the Preakness.  But there's a history of horses that actually can sit on or near the lead rebounding at Pimlico.  Oxbow, Lookin at Lucky, Shackleford and Louis Quatorze are the obvious examples because they won, but think also of AP Valentine (2nd in 2001 at 10-1), Sweetnorthernsaint (2nd in 2006 at 9-1), and the horse we think General a Rod most resembles, Jackson Bend (3rd in 2010 at 11-1).

We call it unlikely that this horse is wearing a garland of Black Eyed Susans at 7:00 p.m. on Saturday.  But his odds of winning are better than his morning line odds, and his odds of finishing in the money are a lot better than those we've already discussed.  Don't toss him from your exotic wagers.

2.  California Chrome.  We swear, we're not being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.  We admit that he's a really nice horse, ran well in the Derby and has had an excellent year so far.  We were against Smarty Jones in the 2004 Preakness; he won by a dozen lengths.  So we acknowledge that we may look crazy come Saturday evening if this guy improves on the Derby and just decimates the field.

But there's enough to be concerned about that we're leaning against him, especially at 3-5.  First, his Derby was a perfect ride and trip that basically can't be improved on.  And yet, he still ran a pitifully slow time and couldn't crack 100 on the Gowanus scale.  Sure, he wasn't pushed in the final yards, but he still was remarkably slow in the Derby.  Even though everything went his way.  We're concerned that if he doesn't sit a perfect trip again, he'll regress, which puts a host of others into contention.

Second, the two-week turnaround gives us pause.  Now we generally are pro horses making a quick return to the track.  But trainer Art Sherman isn't pleased with it, saying that he'd like to give the horse closer to seven weeks off.  On top of this fairly thorough schedule to date, we wonder if the rigors of the year will catch up to him in Baltimore, much like they did to Orb last year.

Look, we wouldn't be surprised to see him win easily.  And we don't think he'll finish out of the money.  But we think he'll get passed late by... 

The Pick

1.  Dynamic Impact. ...the winner of the Illinois Derby who skipped the Kentucky Derby, in part because the Illinois Derby doesn't count towards qualifying for the Kentucky Derby.  (Don't ask why.)  There's plenty to like here.  He took 5 starts to break his maiden but did so impressively.  The fact it took him 5 starts doesn't bother us since his lineage - by Tiznow, out of a Smart Strike mare, indicates a runner who will love distance but may take a few starts to get going.  The distance will not be an issue.  The rail draw is a nice bonus.  He has tactical speed that should put him in the second flight of horses, right behind California Chrome.

Most importantly, he has the highest last out speed figure.  Now we know that speed figures aren't gospel and are as much art as science.  But it's a tried-and-true rule that the horse with the highest out speed figure is the most likely winner, and simply playing that horse in every race will yield a minor loss after the takeout.  The reason is that the horse with the highest figure is usually the favorite.  But Dynamic Impact is 12-1 on the morning line, which we think is accurate, and may be higher depending on how much action Social Inclusion and Bayern take.  We'll side with the horse on the upswing with an underrated trainer (Mark Casse, great in Canada, mostly unknown in the States), excellent breeding, and has been working out well, and he's our pick to pull off the upset.

How to Play the Race

Dynamic Impact to win should net a nice return, and we like hedging by boxing him with California Chrome and General a Rod.  We'd also suggest looking at doubles with the Dixie, but are loathe to make any picks in that race, where we haven't cashed since Ops Smile's win in 1997.

Good luck to all and enjoy the Preakness!

2013 Preakness Preview

Well that was satisfying.

We're not going to lie - we haven't been happier after a race than we were after Orb won the Derby, and that includes some races where we had significant cashes.  Orb's dominant win was the public validation that Shug deserved after decades of being known to everyone in racing as a great trainer but fairly anonymous to the rest of the sports world.  That and the horse appears to be quite talented.  Orb obviously wasn't a fluke winner a la Giacomo or Mine That Bird, nor was he a fortunate winner like Super Saver, Funny Cide or War Emblem, all of which benefited from a fortuitous confluence of circumstances. His  win was the best Derby performance since Big Brown's in 2008, and was probably even better than that since Big Brown beat a class of horses that, frankly, stunk.

But as we all know, horses that look like world-beaters in the Derby don't always take the Preakness.  Fusaichi Pegasus looked similarly invincible in 2000 and lost to Red Bullet.  Monarchos ran a sub-2 minute Derby in 2001 and finished 6th in the Preakness.  Barbaro...well, moving right along.  And Street Sense got out-and-out beaten in the final furlongs by Curlin.  Now that was a stellar crop of horses and a great race (jump to 1:45):

So is another upset in store for Saturday?  Let's count down the runners from worst to first, with the assumption that it's a fast track at Pimlico.

We're Not Seeing It

9.  Titletown Five.  Unlike a lot of the recent editions of the Preakness, this year's race isn't full of horses that didn't run in the Derby and have absolutely no hope in the Preakness.  We have only three new shooters in Saturday's race, and this is the only one that clearly doesn't belong.  After breaking his maiden, he ran second in something called the Gazebo Stakes, followed by a horrible finish in the Louisiana Derby and a non-threatening fourth in the Derby Trial.  We also guarantee that this horse is going to get a lot more play than people think, between D. Wayne Lukas being his trainer and his owner being Paul Hornung.

8.  Oxbow.  While he did run 6th in the Derby, we can't help thinking that was simply a default finish on a day where the unforeseen early pace fried a few horses and the slop ruined the chances of a couple of others.  He was never in contention, never really threatened the top 5 finishers, and has pretty much stagnated since winning the Lecomte earlier this year.

Others Like Them, We Don't

7.  Itsmyluckyday.  Okay, we got suckered in at the Derby.  But we're not biting again.  At the end of the day we have a horse that seems to love Gulfstream and run so-so at all other tracks and probably peaked back in February.  And he's gotten slower as the distances have gotten longer, which is hardly a surprise given his breeding.  We do think that he plays an important part in the race though, because we wouldn't be surprised to see him chasing...

6.  Goldencents.  ...the horse that everyone thought was going to be on the lead in the Derby but wasn't.  So it wasn't Kevin Krigger's best move to put him 5 lengths off the pace, but would it have mattered?  Had he dueled with Palice Malice, he would have been fried.  Now he'll get a second chance to lull everyone to sleep with an early pace.  But we see three enormous problems with this strategy.  First, based on his breeding, we still don't think this horse wants the distance.  Second, we're not so sure he's going to get an easy lead, because we think Itsmyluckyday, Titletown Five and possibly Oxbow will also show speed.  Third, the lulling the field to sleep strategy is not the way to win the Preakness.  Since Louis Quatorze pulled it off in 1996, the only front-runners that have won the Preakness were War Emblem ('02) and Rachel Alexandra ('09).  The former was a legitimate runner with good early speed that it could carry for 9-10 furlongs; the latter was a Hall of Fame horse.  Goldencents is neither.  To us, he's a horse that was fortunate to win the Santa Anita Derby under perfect circumstances, and at 5-1, is a great bet-against on Saturday.

5.  Departing.  The likely second or third choice in the race, he exits a win in the Illinois Derby and only has one defeat in his 5 career starts.  His Illinois Derby win is pretty much irrelevant to us, as the race did not contain a single horse that was on the Triple Crown trail.  It's his third place finish in the Louisiana Derby that is more interesting to us, as he ran okay, but was passed late by both Revolutionary and Mylute and was almost passed by Golden Soul, the Derby runner-up.  An optimist would say that makes the Louisiana Derby a key race and his chances should be upgraded.  We're more pessimistic - we see no reason he can turn the tables on Mylute, and since Revolutionary and Golden Soul were beaten somewhat handily by Orb, we don't see how he closes the theoretical gap, especially since his breeding on the sire's side is pretty sprint-oriented.  And he's going to be about 9-2.  We're looking elsewhere.

4.  Mylute.  We still don't know what to make of this horse.  Excellent jockey Rosie Napravenik wisely turned him back into a stone closer in the Derby and he rallied to finish 5th, beaten about a length for second.  He ran a good "Sheets" number in the race, meaning while taking into account trip, etc., he was probably the second-best horse in the race.  That said, he was no threat to the winner and still strikes us as a horse that is more of a closing sprinter than a router - his father was two-time BC Sprint winner Midnight Lute and his dam is by sprinter Valid Expectations.  With a little less pace to run at in this race, he's going to be up against it if he's too far back, but we're not sure he has enough staying power to run with the front of the pack early and hold off the closers late.  He's got a shot to hit the board, but we think the win slot is highly unlikely.

In With a Chance

3.  Will Take Charge.  The three horses that have gotten the most discussion out of the Derby are the winner, Normandy Invasion (we'll get to him in the Belmont preview), and this guy, who had a horrible trip.  Take a look at the overhead shot at about the 0:43 mark; he's the horse in the white silks directly to the inside of Orb:

At you'll see, he comes to basically a dead stop when they hit the top of the stretch, as tiring Verrazano was directly in his path and caused his jockey to slam on the brakes.  We don't think he would have caught the winner - he was moving inside of him, remember - but he likely would have held on for a spot in the money.  Now couple this with the fact that Will Take Charge clearly prefers a fast track to a wet track - he flopped in his lone prior start on a sloppy surface, and his prior two runs on a fast track were both wins - and that he's well-bred for the distance, and gets a bump by going from jockey Jon Court to Mike Smith, and his chances look even better.  That said, he still has a lot of ground to make up on the Derby winner, as he still hasn't cracked a 3-digit speed figure in his 8-race career.

2.  Govenor Charlie.  He's only had three starts to date but the last two were quite good - a strong maiden win followed by a dominating performance in the Sunland Derby.  He was bound for the Derby until he came up with a foot bruise a week before the race, and trainer Bob Baffert decided to point him to the Preakness instead.  After a good workout on Monday, he's back on the Triple Crown trail with we think a chance to do something at a price.

Now we'll acknowledge there are a bunch of issues with this horse - he hasn't faced a single top-level horse yet, his breeding does have a fair amount of sprint influence (like Mylute, he's out of Midnight Lute), and he did have an injury significant enough to knock him out of the Derby.  But there are a lot of positives on the other side of the ledger; the presence of Baffert (who's won this race 5 times), a solid jockey in Martin Garcia (who won this race with Baffert on Lookin at Lucky in '10), good dam side breeding (his granddam is Hall of Famer Silverbulletday), a good workout to show he's healed, and the potential for a lot of improvement since it's his 4th career start.  And most importantly: the price.  He's 15-1 on the morning line and we think he'll be the second or third longest shot on the board.  We feel that if anyone's going to turn the tables on the winner, it's either going to be a horse with a bad trip in the Derby (Will Take Charge) or a newbie that makes The Proverbial Leap.  At 20-1 or so, he's definitely worth the gamble.

The Pick

1.  Orb.  Simply stated there's no reason to go against him.  The track condition doesn't matter as he has dominant wins on the slop and dirt.  He closed from the back of the pack to win last race but showed in the Florida Derby he can lay close if needed which is likely the case here.  He has a great trainer and the hottest jockey in America.  And he's likely still improving, as evidenced by his workout earlier in the week that left Shug McGaughey "breathless." When a trainer who eschews hyperbole is speaking in such reverent tones, we pay attention.  We think it's all setting up for a neat rematch in the Belmont with Revolutionary and Normandy Invasion coupled with a Triple Crown on the line, and are very excited to see him run on Saturday.  We think he improves yet again and runs away with the race.

How to Play the Race

Orb is going to be around 4-5, and while we think he's going to win, it's hard to argue that 4-5 is great value.  We can see saver bets on Will Take Charge and Govenor Charlie if they're over 10-1 and 20-1 respectively, but would avoid most other horses in the win slot.  The better idea is exotics: either keying Orb over those two horses and Mylute in triples and superfectas, or use Orb as a single in multi-race bets.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the Preakness!

2011 Preakness Preview

(We promise, fantasy posts soon.)

The most amazing thing about this year's Kentucky Derby isn't the pace, winner, or order of finish. It was that the race was cleanly run. No horse had a poor or severely compromised trip--remarkable for a field of 19 developing 3-year olds. While the pace was slower than expected, that only helped horses stay out of trouble, as there were no tiring horses to avoid.

Can we expect more of the same in the Preakness? Probably not. Let's count down the field from worst to best.

In a Word, No

14. Isn't He Perfect. If this guy wins, we will believe that May 21 is in fact the day of the rapture and say our final novenas. We're not worried.

13. Flashpoint. Fast as all hell out of the gate, he's bred up and down to be a wonderful sprinter, and proved that by dominating the 7 furlong Hutchenson. Now he comes in off a fading finish in the Florida Derby to try 1 3/16 miles. The Racing Form's commenter says it perfectly: "perhaps he could get nine furlongs under the right circumstances." This is longer and is not the right circumstances.

12. Norman Asbjornson. In his third career start, a Pennsylvania state-bred maiden race, he ran 9th of 11, posting a 24 Gowanus Speed Figure. Thankfully, he's improved a little since then. Note that I didn't say that he's improved a lot.

11. Concealed Identity. Is blind in one eye and a gelding--i.e., had his genitals intentionally cut off. This horse has been through enough trauma that losing badly to horses with twice his talent will seem like a picnic.

10. King Congie. In his two dirt starts, he's lost by a combined 31 1/2 lengths. Given that he just finished behind Brilliant Speed and Twinspired, who did absolutely nothing in the Derby, we're struggling to see any appeal, outside of the story of the late man he's named after will be fodder for NBC's maudlin pre-race telecast.

Keep Trying, Keep Failing

9. Astrology. Every year there are a few horses that are consistently bet hard despite having not much of a record to justify it. This year, one of them is Astrology. While it's true that he's never been out of the money, he's only one race that's even remotely fast, and that was over the slop. Much of the appeal for this guy was his good record at Churchill Downs, but that's meaningless here. And in his last 3 races, he's lost to Santiva and Twice the Appeal, two horses that made little impact in the Derby. It's hard to see why we should think he'll improve enough to contend here, especially when he'll be bet to 10-1 or so.

8. Sway Away. Some will try to make a case for this guy because he has one of the fastest GSF's in the race (his San Vincente) and it's arguable that he got a bad ride in the Arkansas Derby, where he made a somewhat premature move. Whatever. This guy hasn't won since his first race last June and ran his worst two races around two turns. We think he's a 1-turn closing sprinter and will eventually make an impact. In the King's Bishop in August.

Bad Investments

7. Midnight Interlude. Well, there's always the Louis Quatorze phenomenon. But it's hard to see why we should like this guy on Saturday when he completely no-showed in Louisville. He had a perfect trip. He didn't have any traffic trouble. And when called on for more, he stopped running. Now yes, any horse that's only run 5 times is eligible for improvement in his sixth start. But the Baffert factor alone is going to make this guy around 8-1. His actual chances of winning are far, far lower than 12%, and he's a horrible value play.

6. Dance City. Along with Astrology, here's the other "wiseguy" horse that didn't run in the Derby. We suppose there are some things to like, given that he was only a length and change behind Nehro in the Arkansas Derby, and Nehro ran a bang-up second in the Kentucky Derby. But we're still unconvinced. His sire (City Zip) is a crackerjack sprinter and this guy has always gone right to the front. We think he does so again here, and gets fried dueling with...

5. Shackleford. He's probably going to be the 3rd choice in the race, on the theory that the slightly shorter distance will help him. But let's take a step back and examine his last two races. He ran 2nd in the Florida Derby because nobody else broke well and he was left alone on the lead, which allowed him to be a contender for 8 1/2 furlongs. In the Kentucky Derby, he made the lead again, but somehow slowed the pace down to the slowest pace we've seen in over 40 years. Even with that perfect a trip, he had nothing left in the final furlong. So yes, he's got a right to improve, but he's probably not going to get as soft a pace this time around, and he certainly isn't going to sit chilly--he's going to the front. With some legit speed types in the race (Flashpoint, Dance City), we don't see how he gets away with another slow pace, and in the end, think he's closer to the back of the pack at the end.

Contenders

4. Dialed In. If Animal Kingdom wins this race, he'll take home $600,000 (60% of the purse). If this guy wins, he'll take him $6.1 million. Really? Well, yes. In arguably the dumbest promotion ever, Frank Stronach's parent company, Magna--which owns Pimlico, Santa Anita and Gulfstream--put together a series where winning the Holy Bull, Florida Derby and Preakness will give you a $5.5 million bonus.

This bonus makes absolutely no sense. It didn't add to the quality of the field of any of the three races. It didn't bring any fans out to the track. It did nothing besides make one horse--Dialed In--more likely to run in the Preakness for a bonus that's completely out of whack with his talent. If he wins the Preakness, he will be one of the 10-highest earning horses of all time.

Magna, you want to do something useful? Take 20% of this bonus money and add it to the Preakness purse. We see owners skipping the Preakness every year, saying it's too soon to run after the Derby. Add a million to the purse, bringing it in line with the Derby, and let's see how many horses stay away.

(steps off soapbox)

As to Dialed In's chances, he certainly has a shot to hit the board but the Derby did nothing to change our belief that he's at heart a sprinter best suited for 1-turn races. Yeah, he closed like a shot into a slow pace. Big deal. The Derby was run akin to a turf race--extremely slow at first, then a dash to the finish. The fact that he's in Secretariat's league with final times is meaningless. Put Big Brown, Silver Charm, hell, even Monarchos in this year's Derby, and they too would have had a sub-48 second closing half mile.

Given the quicker pace scenario and the lack of horses that seem classy enough, we can't say you should leave him off your triples and superfectas. But to win? At 3-1? We're not seeing it.

3. Mucho Macho Man. "Honest" is the best word we can use to describe this guy. He's never run a bad race, generally finds himself just off the lead and in contention at the top of the stretch, but never seems to win the big one. It was evident in Kentucky that this guy has a little maturing to do--he didn't change leads in the stretch and remember, he's a June foal--but will probably be around late. But he had every right to take on Animal Kingdom and wasn't really close at the end. We see no reason he'll turn the tables, but also see no reason that he won't be in the superfecta.

2. Mr. Commons. We know we just bashed Midnight Interlude, who this guy lost to in his last race. So how are we backing him as a contender to hit the board? Four reasons:

• Trust the connections. John Shirreffs is notoriously patient, as he proved with Zenyatta. They wouldn't be here if they didn't think the horse was fit and ready.

• Tactical speed. We're less interested in a dead closer, as discussed above. This guy is a stalker, which should fit perfectly with the pace scenario.

• Strong workouts. This guy's workout line looks like he's sitting on a good race, having followed up a decent showing in the Santa Anita Derby with a bullet workout, then two strong 7-furlong drills. The trainer looks to be getting him fit for the race and the horse looks like he's responding.

• Price. You tell me who's more interesting: Midnight Interlude at 8-1 or this guy at 30-1. Thought so.
  

The Pick

1. Animal Kingdom. How ballsy of us to pick the Derby winner to repeat. But why not? There isn't a single horse in the Preakness that looks scary. Everyone in the Derby had a clean trip and got to run their race. (For Dialed In supporters who say he didn't, then why wasn't he closer to the pace? Nehro's a closer and he was appropriately placed near the front when Corey Nakatani figured out they were moving at a snail's pace.) There aren't any new shooters that look imposing like Red Bullet or Bernardini.

To bet against Animal Kingdom, you have to be betting that Dialed In, Midnight Interlude or Mucho Macho Man is going to take a huge step forward while Animal Kingdom regresses. We think that's very, very unlikely, and actually think that if you get 5-2 on him, you're getting a very square price.

How to Play the Race

As we said, we think Animal Kingdom is value in the win pool at 5-2 or better: his odds of winning are much better than 30%. The key to betting the race is beating the also-rans from the Derby. So key him over some of the price horses, because if Dialed In doesn't show up, it's wide open for the triples.

Good luck and enjoy the race!

2010 Preakness Preview

Fact: while the Kentucky Derby is the most famous race in America that everyone wants to win, and the Belmont is the "Test of the Champion", the Triple Crown race most likely to produce a champion is the Preakness.

Really? Well, yes. 11 of the last 13 Preakness winners were later crowned 3yo colt of the year, and three of them (Charismatic in '99, Point Given in '01 and Curlin in '07) won Horse of the Year. By contrast, only 7 Derby and 3 Belmont winners won an Eclipse that year. One of the two exceptions was last year's winner, super filly Rachel Alexandra, who was ineligible to win the 3yo colts' Eclipse Award, but instead won the 3yo filly Eclipse and Horse of the Year. That leaves 2000 winner Red Bullet as the one real exception to the rule, who won in a crazy year where eventual champion Tiznow came from nowhere to win the Breeders Cup Classic.

Why has this been the case? Well, in this time span, 7 Preakness winners were also Derby winners, and 2 Preakness winners also won the Belmont. Win 2 Triple Crown races and you'd need something really goofy to happen to lose the Eclipse Award. But the other big reason is that of the three Triple Crown races, the Preakness most resembles a regular horse race. The Derby is a unique race: a 20-horse field, a 160,000 person crowd, a new distance for all the runners, and the presence of a slew of horses with little or no chance that can make it impossible for some contenders to win. (Just ask the connections of Ice Box.) The Belmont is run at a mile and a half on the dirt, a distance that horses are rarely bred for and will likely never run again, making it an anomaly in modern racing and producing quirky results. (Commendable? Da'Tara? Sarava?)

By contrast, the format of the Preakness is quite similar to most Grade 1 races. The field size is usually 8-11, and will never be larger than 14. The distance (9 1/2 furlongs) isn't too far and for many of these horses, is shorter than their previous race (the Derby) or only a little longer than a prior race. Traffic trouble is less of a problem because of the smaller field. And Pimlico generally plays pretty fair to front-runners and closers. In many respects, it's the "truest" of the Triple Crown races.

Which is why you rarely see a longshot win the Preakness. In this same 13-year span, we've seen only two horses win the race at odds over 5-1. One was Charismatic, who had just won the Derby at 31-1, and stupidly, most people thought he couldn't do it again. He won easily at 8-1. The other was Bernardini (2006), who was 13-1 partly because he only had 3 prior starts and partly because he was running against Barbaro, who was 1-2.

What this means is that the Preakness isn't the race to go bomb hunting unless there's a phenom you love or the public is ignoring the fave for some reason. Does either exception apply here? Let's count them down in reverse order of likelihood.

Watch Yourselves Out There, Kids

12. Northern Giant. D. Wayne Lukas is arguably the best trainer in this history of the Preakness with 5 wins. Sadly, the last one came in 1995, and he hasn't had a horse finish in the money since 2003. Given that this guy has zero wins on a dry dirt track, finished DAFL in the Arkansas Derby and is painfully slow, we think he's not going to get Lukas off the schneid.

11. Yawanna Twist. The highlight of his career to date has been non-threatening 2nds to Awesome Act and American Lion, two horses who lost the Derby by a combined 80 lengths. His next highlight will come when he wins the New York Derby at Finger Lakes Racetrack in July.

Good Horse in a Bad Spot

10. Schoolyard Dreams. Barely lost the Tampa Bay Derby 2 races back (beating Super Saver in the process, who hadn't run in 4 months), he was throttled in the Wood despite getting a perfect trip. He looks like a perfectly fine Grade 3 horse that can win a G1 or G2 if he catches a weak field and a bunch of things break his way. Neither applies here.

9. Dublin. This horse has zero wins beyond 7 furlongs in 6 tries, and hasn't improved his speed figures in about 9 months. The Preakness will make it 7 tries with no success. Why even bother with a route race? Why not aim for something like the Woody Stephens and King's Bishop?

The Derby Did Not Tell Us Much

8. Jackson Bend. Trainer Nick Zito didn't love that this guy was 12+ lengths out of it in the Derby and has vowed that he'll be closer to the pace in the Preakness. That's fine and good, but it doesn't change that this horse is winless in open company and doesn't appear to be fast enough to compete for the win slot and has zero acceleration. Look for him to menace near the lead on the far turn, and get passed by half the field in the stretch.

7. Paddy O'Prado. After we mocked this guy, he turned around and ran 3rd in the Derby. Guess what? We're still against. We've now got proof that he's good on turf, synthetics and slop, which is not uncommon. We still have no proof that this guy will be any good on a fast track, which is what he'll get on Saturday. Additionally, he was gasping for air at the end of the Derby and his jockey (Kent Desormeaux) has been fighting allegations that he gave up on the race late. He's a very likely candidate to be overbet (5-1?) and regress badly in the Preakness.

Newcomers for Exotic Purposes Only

6. Pleasant Prince. Lost by a nose to Derby runner-up Ice Box in the Florida Derby. In an effort to get enough winnings to make the Derby, lost horribly in the Blue Grass and ran a blase 3rd in the Derby Trial. He rates better than some because he has excuses for his last two losses--they were on synthetic and in the slop, respectively--but he's a stone closer in a race that lacks a ton of early speed. Has a shot to clunk up and his the superfecta at an OK price.

5. Aikenite. Todd Pletcher's "other" horse in the race, he's also a stone closer with a shot to clunk up at a price. We rank him slightly higher because we think he'll be a longer price than Pleasant Prince and like that he's coming in a little fresher. There's almost zero chance this guy could win (if he has a shot, would Pletcher be running him and ruining a Triple Crown bid?), but at 30-1, he's exactly the kind of horse you should throw in the bottom slot of your trifectas and supers.

4. First Dude. He's accomplished even less than Aikenite and Pleasant Prince, but he has tactical speed that the last two horses lack. He also has run three straight 9 furlong races which we like; we think he'll have a good foundation to get the distance (unlike, say, Yawanna Twist). And he's sporting a pair of bullet workouts. Could stick around and hit the board at a huge price.

Contenders

3. Super Saver. Has there ever been less enthusiasm over a Derby winner that wasn't an upset? Most of the discussion and accolades over the past two weeks has been over Calvin Borel, Todd Pletcher, and Ice Box (who many argue should have won). Almost nobody has been arguing that this horse is the next coming of Unbridled, let alone Affirmed, and while he'll probably be the favorite in the Preakness, it'll probably be a tempered 5-2/3-1 choice.

Those are tempting odds to take on a well-bred, well-connected horse that just won the Derby, but we don't love him here. We don't love Pletcher horses coming back in 2 weeks--we know few trainers do it these days, but Pletcher never runs a horse back that quickly, which is partially why he's had so few Preakness runners (none of which have done anything). We think there's no way he gets as good a trip here as he got in the Derby; in fact, that's going to be impossible, because his Derby trip was perfect. And we're wondering if he's just a Churchill Downs freak. He's 2-for-2 at Churchill and 1-for-5 elsewhere. It's a little reminiscent of 2007 winner Street Sense, who was a monster at Churchill and just very good elsewhere. And he got beat in the Preakness. We think he contends but ultimately loses.

2. Caracortado. The new shooter with a chance. For all the chatter about how horrible Lookin at Lucky's trip was in the Santa Anita Derby, few focused on this guy's horrible trip, which probably cost him 3rd place. He's a pretty honest runner with tactical speed, an underrated trainer, and breeding that looks obscure but is actually quite good--his sire was a high-priced , well-bred Storm Cat horse that had an early career ending injury, and his dam is out of Maria's Mon, who's the sire of Super Saver. Yes, he has no real dirt experience (his 4 furlong debut doesn't count) and his jockey is someone we don't know too well. But he'll probably be about 15-1 with a real chance to do some damage. We think he's a must-use not only in exotics but in multi-race wagers.

The Pick

1. Lookin at Lucky. Many want to argue that Ice Box was the best horse that didn't win the Derby, but we're pretty sure it's this guy. Pinched at the start and roughed up a furlong into the race, he was 20 lengths out of it early, which is not his game. He rallied belatedly and pretty well to only lose by 7 lengths on a day where he got no racing luck and was on a sloppy surface that he didn't love. Now he turns back slightly in distance, gets a new jockey (Garrett Gomez is one of the best in the business, but had no luck on this guy), and should get a much, much, much better trip in a smaller field that lacks a true speedball. More importantly, we think he's just the best horse in this class. And if we're going with the theory that the top horse of the class will win the Preakness, he's the most likely winner.

Playing the Race

We suspect that both Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver will be around 3-1, and if so, they and everyone else you like is worth a win bet, because tripling your money is nothing to sneeze at. If you like a longshot like Caracortado or First Dude, look to playing them in doubles or Pick Threes; their odds will be even longer in the multi-race wagers (and by contrast, LAL, SS and Paddy O'Prado will likely be shorter in those bets).

Good luck to all!

2009 Preakness Preview

Okay, a 50-1 shot (who was well over 100-1 in overseas books and exotics pools) won the Kentucky Derby. What do we make of this implausible upset?

After Mine That Bird's shocking victory in the Kentucky Derby, everyone has rushed to try to compare his victory to either Giacomo's win in 2005, Cannero II's victory in 1971, or Doneraile's 91-1 upset in 1913. Two of the three comparisons are utterly wrong. Doneraile may as well have run in the Middle Ages; the horse ran 62 times in his career. Giacomo, as previously noted, basically won by default on a day where Afleet Alex and Bellamy Road turned in subpar performances, and nobody else stepped up to the plate. While it wasn't surprising that Giacomo only won one other race after that, it also wasn't a shocker that he finished in the money in the Derby. Before the Derby, Giacomo had shown some ability in graded stakes races and head been keeping good company. We actually know people who bet Giacomo in trifectas and superfectas. By contrast, only person we know that cashed a ticket on Mine That Bird is Angelo's mother, who pulled out of a hat a $10 win ticket on the horse at a Derby party.

Cannonero II is an interesting comparison, because like MTB, he was dismissed based on losing races at crappier tracks (in Venezuela, for crying out loud), and shocked everyone by being better than thought on Derby Day. He carried this over to the Preakness, before flopping in the Belmont and having an undistinguished career afterward. The problem with the Cannonero II comparison is that there wasn't an obvious reason for the horse's win besides talent. Mine That Bird, by contrast, clearly took advantage of a muddy track and a superb ride from Calvin Borel. Had the track come up fast on Derby day, it's likely that Mine That Bird would have run well, but not won.

So what else did we learn from the Derby besides that Mine That Bird likes the slop and is a better horse than his PP's showed? Shockingly little. The muddy track clearly impacted other horses as well, as absolutely nobody showed any improvement in the race, and most horses regressed. It's very reminiscent of 2004, where a storm annihilated the track an hour before the race, and everyone besides Smarty Jones and Lion Heart ran like garbage as a result. Which makes handicapping the Preakness even harder, because we still have no real answers on our synthetic surface questions and are presented with some interesting new shooters this time.

So even though we flopped miserably on handicapping the Derby, let's turn the page and do a countdown for the Preakness. We note that we've picked the winner of the last two Preaknesses, meaning that the safe play is probably boxing the first four horses we eliminate. For the record, we're making these picks assuming the track is fast; if it rains, we'll update it the day of with some thoughts and changes.

Huh?

13. Flying Private. As we'll explore a little later, there's good reason to think the slop at Churchill Downs hid the true ability of at least one of the horses that ran in the Derby. This guy isn't him. To put it bluntly, he ran dead last in the Derby and was a longshot to begin with based on a career where he accomplished nothing. There's zero indication that he should improve by moving to Maryland. For all the hullabaloo over whether Rachel Alexandra would be excluded based on ringers being entered, people should be more focused on Lukas potentially ruining a perfectly decent horse in the Triple Crown, yet again.

The Wrong Newcomers

12. Tone it Down. This year's local hope for the scions of Maryland, he faded to third in the Federico Tesio stakes two weeks ago to finish behind the immortal Miner's Escape and Hehasnosay. His speed figures are slow enough that he's not competitive (then again, so were Mine That Bird's), but more problematically, he's outclassed and should get fried on the front end. Pass.

11. Luv Gov. If the name sounds familiar, it's because we briefly mentioned this guy last summer as one of two horses owned by racing doyenne Marylou Whitney that pays tribute to the erstwhile governor of New York. (Check out this piece, where Whitney's husband tries to admit that they don't hate Spitzer, and then commits a bigger party foul by admitting that they read the New York Post.) While he ran nicely breaking his maiden on the Derby undercard, there's good reason to think that was a function of the slop and no real reason to think he'll be competitive at this level.

10. Big Drama. A lot of people are giving this newcomer a big shot in the Preakness, but we're just not seeing it. He's been out once this year, where he crossed the finish line first in the Swale (at 7 furlongs, 2 1/2 shorter than the Preakness), but was DQ'd to second for bumping the runner up while tiring in the stretch. His previous successes were in Florida statebred races and at the Delta Jackpot, which is Louisiana's equivalent of the now-esteemed Sunland Derby. While Mine That Bird did teach us a lesson about scoffing at stakes at slots-fueled tracks, we still don't see much class in this horse. To top it off, he's an intractable front-runner and has pure sprint breeding (Montbrook out of a Notebook mare) that doesn't suggest he'll stay the distance against good horses. We like him as a toss-out, which is good, because he'll probably be around 8-1.

The Derby Repeaters

9. General Quarters. There appear to be two strategies for this horse: either send him to attend to the pace and have him try to waltz home after being near reasonable fractions, or have him make one run later, and watch him finish badly. Given that he probably can't survive a speed duel, and jockey Julian Leparoux is more known for patient rides (a la Pat Day, the Good Hands Man), it's more likely we'll see him at the rear of the field, and out of contention.

8. Friesan Fire. The beaten Derby favorite! While many will invoke Louis Quatorze, Point Given and Afleet Alex as examples of Derby underperformers that roubounded in the Preakness, we're against. We had an almost identical situation two years ago, where Circular Quay ran poorly in the Derby off a long layoff and then was rushed into the Preakness. How'd that fare? Poorly, he was well out of the money and looked like a short horse. Making FF's case worse, he's supposedly a slop monster, but did nothing in the soup at Churchill except get his beat up on his legs from contact with other horses while finishing next to last. As there's no indication that this horse is anything special away from Fairgrounds, we'll bet against until he proves us wrong, especially if he's 6-1 or so.

7. Musket Man. While we'd argue the slop changed the outcome for a lot of horses in the Derby, we're not so sure that's the case here, as this horse ran roughly what you'd expect him to run: a high 90's GSF while showing no punch in the stretch. It just so happened that because I Want Revenge scratched and nobody besides the winner ran a lick that this made him the show finisher. We're still unconvinced this guy wants any part of a route race, and while he'd be a fun horse to own, we think he's set here to regress and vacation until the late summer stakes races.

6. Mine That Bird. Yes, he's better than everyone thought. He's got some talent and his horrible rides in New Mexico clearly made him appear worse than he was. But it's impossible to dispute that he didn't get a perfect confluence of events on Derby day. A solid pace. A wet track. The scratch of I Want Revenge and Quality Road's withdrawal. A perfect ride by Borel. Luck when the rail was open pretty much the whole way around. Take away any of those things, and we're probably talking about a different winner of the Derby and he's this year's version of Sedgefield.

Is he going to get all of those breaks again? Clearly that's impossible, because Borel isn't riding him, and he instead gets salty veteran Mike Smith in the irons. While Smitty's a perfectly fine jockey and a Hall of Famer, we can't think of a single race where he was the difference between winning and losing. (And he's ridden Skip Away, Holy Bull and Zenyatta, for crying out loud.) Even worse, it's unlikely that we'll have a wet track again, and it's even less likely that he'll get a perfect rail-skimming trip . What's more likely is that his Preakness resembles Giacomo's: clunk up for a piece, but never threaten the winner.

5. Pioneerof the Nile. Minor and useless prediction: this horse, and not Mine That Bird, will be the second choice in the Preakness. He's a horrible idea at 5-2, as we still have zero proof that he can crack a 100 Gowanus Speed Figure, still hasn't proven he likes dirt, and is wheeling back off two weeks after having all his prior races strategically spread apart. It's unlikely he'll be at the back of the pack come the end of the race, but this is not the spot to jump on his bandwagon.

The Interesting Newcomers

4. Take the Points. Speedster from the Todd Pletcher barn with very obscure breeding (Even the Score out of a Fred Astaire mare?), this guy's an interesting read who may offer value underneath if he doesn't get fried on the front end. He possesses good tactical speed but isn't a need-the-lead horse (unlike, say, his stablemate Join in the Dance), and should be near the front. His last two dirt efforts were very good: a nice win in the mud, followed by a strong showing in an allowance race at Gulfstream. He followed that up with a pair of mediocre efforts on a synthetic surface, which Pletcher pretty clearly sent him to so to avoid Pletcher's other horses. Can he improve moving back to the dirt at 30-1? We say yes, and like him to round out superfectas.

3. Terrain. We've been waiting for this horse to get a dirt fast track for a while now, and we're finally going to get our wish. Too bad it's in the Preakness, where he might be a little outclassed. But our like for him is not dissimilar to our reasonsing for liking West Side Bernie in the Derby (yeah, that sucked, but shaddup): he hasn't had a fair shake to run well in a while. His Delta Jackpot race to close out 2008 was compromised by a moronic ride his jockey sucked him into a speed duel, making him fade. His Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass weren't awful, but they occurred, respectively, on slop and Polytrack, neither of which is probably his optimal surface. Finally, he's united with a competent rider, a fast track, and should get first run on the deep closers like Mine That Bird. Look for him to come flying late at a huge price.

2. Rachel Alexandra. Okay, we'll say it: Rachel Alexandra is this year's Big Brown. She's a very talented filly, but her reputation is beyond her accomplishments at the moment, given that she's won a whopping one Grade 1 race, her 20 1/4 length romp in the Oaks last out. And as pointed out by many (including Steve Crist), the field for the Oaks, like last year's Derby field, was atrocious. This makes it pretty tough to gauge if this girl is really a freak like everyone thinks or is simply another very good horse that got lucky that her competition stinks.

More to the point, she's being asked to do a lot here. Take on 12 other horses. Run back in two weeks time. Tend to a pace that should be somewhat brisk. Adjust to a new trainer (okay, this may not be a big factor). And for all this we're supposed to take 2-1 odds? Look, if she wins and she's the next Ruffian, Go For Wand, or even Surfside, we'll eat crow and admit it. But for now, she's a horrible play at short odds in the Preakness, and we're looking elsewhere for the win slot.

(As a total aside, Rick Reilly gets paid $3.5 million apparently to get the facts wrong. By no measure is Rachel Alexandra "the fastest racehorse in the world". Hell, she's not even the fastest filly in the world, that title would probably go to either Goldikova or Zenyatta. She's not "undefeated in four tries", she's 4-for-4 this year and is 7-for-10 life time. But hey, great job otherwise.)

The Pick

1. Papa Clem. We have no idea how much horses like Pioneerof the Nile were hurt by the slop. By contrast, we do know this guy was hurt by the slop. His Louisiana Derby was a definitively meh effort on a wet surface, which he followed up with a good win in the Arkansas Derby on a fast track (he improved by over 10 GSF points in between). Given that history, it wasn't really a surprise to see him run a meh 4th in the Derby in the mud, especially since he was slammed by Pioneerof the Nile in the stretch and may have finished 2nd with a slightly cleaner trip. It's not at all a stretch to think he'll return to his Arkansas Derby form, which would have everyone not named Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra playing catch up with him. Since we're against those two because of the lack of slop and the suspect nature of the filly's competition, he's the most logical pick, and should be a square price (8-1?).

Playing the Race

Once again, if you like anyone in this race, a win bet is a very good way to go, because everyone other than Rachel Alexandra should be an okay price, if not commensurate with their chances of winning. If you're looking for a 4-digit payday though, check out the races preceding the Preakness and look into Pick 3's an Pick 4's. Tossing Rachel Alexandra and Pioneerof the Nile will inflate the odds in the multi-race exotics tremendously, even if you catch a couple of favorites early on. And to make it formal, our official picks:

1. Papa Clem
2. Terrain
3. Take the Points
4. Rachel Alexandra

Good luck to all and enjoy the race!