Horse
|
Betting Choice
|
Order of Finish
|
American Pharoah
|
1st
|
1st
|
Dortmund
|
2nd
|
3rd
|
Carpe Diem
|
3rd
|
11th
|
Firing Line
|
4th
|
2nd
|
Frosted
|
5th
|
4th
|
Materiality
|
6th
|
6th
|
We're reminded more than a little bit of the 2007 Derby. That year, we knew we had a good class of horses, which included the 2yo champ, and discounted longshots accordingly. The Derby results confirmed our pre-race thoughts:
Horse
|
Betting Choice
|
Order of Finish
|
Street Sense
|
1st
|
1st
|
Curlin
|
2nd
|
3rd
|
Scat Daddy
|
3rd
|
18th
|
Hard Spun
|
4th
|
2nd
|
Nobiz Like Shobiz
|
5th
|
10th
|
Circular Quay
|
6th
|
6th
|
Two things stand out. The first is that in both races, the horses that were the biggest flops were heavily bet Todd Pletcher horses that skeptics rightly discounted. If you want to know where the talk of Pletcher-The-Choker comes from, it's not really the 1-for-43 record, it's horses at short prices failing repeatedly in Kentucky. Nobody's really holding it against Pletcher that Keyed Entry didn't run well in the Derby. They do hold it against him when Carpe Diem, Scat Daddy, Gemologist, Verrazano and Bandini to run like world beaters in January through April but like garbage in Kentucky.
The second is that the Preakness results doubled-down on the Derby results. Not only did Curlin beat out Street Sense for the win, but Hard Spun took 3rd and Circular Quay ran 5th. Going after new horses when the crop already looked strong was not a great idea.
So since we have 4 of the top 5 finishers in the Derby running in the Preakness, let's just run back the trifecta, right? Not necessarily. Let's count down the field in reverse order of likelihood to come away with a garland of black-eyed susans. We're assuming the track is fast and fair - check the weather on Saturday, because this may not be the case.
 |
| Pimlico Race Course, home of the Preakness |
8. Tale of Verve. The last horse that ran in a Triple Crown race and was this hopeless was when they ran a maiden in Big Brown's Belmont. Tale of Verve has actually won a race (hooray!), though it was his last race, his 6th start overall, and returned a 74 speed figure. That puts him a mere 20 lengths behind the key contenders from the Derby. Dallas Stewart is a good trainer, Charles Fipke is (usually) a good owner, and this horse cost $440,000 at auction. Why on earth are they throwing him to the wolves where he has no shot unless every other horse scratches?
Water Seems a Bit Deep
7. Mr. Z. Ahmed Zayat, the owner of American Pharoah, was so impressed with the quality of this horse that he decided to sell him to Calumet Farm on Wednesday, fully knowing that the new owners were going to run him in the Preakness and try to spoil American Pharoah's chances at a Triple Crown. And who can blame Zayat? The horse has only lost 13 straight race, his three by a combined 45 lengths. I hope Calumet paid in cash.
6. Bodhisattva. It's the annual Preakness entry out of the Federico Tesio stakes! Since Magic Weisner ran a good 2nd at 43-1 in 2002, the only other Tesio runner to hit the board in the Preakness was Ichabad Crane in 2008, where he ran a non-threatening third in a year where Big Brown scared off almost every other Derby competitor. The field's a lot deeper this year than it was in 2008, and this horse doesn't look anywhere near as good as Ichabad Crane.
5. Danzig Moon. His fifth place finish in the Derby was about an unexciting as you can get. He rated off the top 3 horses, sat 5th or 6th for much of the race, never closed the gap, and was passed by Frosted in the stretch. He seems perfectly likely to run a stalking 5th where he never threatens the leaders or completely fades from the picture.
Concerned About the Timing
4. Firing Line. Since this guy ran a robust 2nd in the Los Alamitos Derby in his third start, trainer Simon Callahan took a less-is-more approach by intentionally spacing out Firing Line's next 3 starts, which were 49, 43 and 42 days apart. He responded each time by running well, with a good second in the Robert Lewis, a win in the Sunland Derby (albeit against nobody) and a very nice 2nd at Churchill. We know this guy's talented, but we're concerned about the very quick turnaround. It's antithetical to everything else Callahan has done with the horse, and think he may regress off his last effort. We get why he's running - he was right there with American Pharoah at the end, and should appreciate the shortening up in distance - but the analogue we keep coming back to is Lion Heart, who was gingerly managed in 2004, ran a solid 2nd in the Derby, and was nowhere in the Preakness. We see this guy showing speed but fading on the far turn, then taking a brisk break from racing and reappearing in the Haskell in July.
The Most Likely Upsetters
3. Dortmund. Of the last 20 Preakness winners, 9 also won the Derby and 3 were new shooters (Red Bullet, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra). The remaining 8 winners ran in the Derby and lost. Roughly speaking, this octet falls into three categories:
a. Clearly Superior Talent. These horses were the class of their generation that, for whatever reason, didn't get it done at Churchill Downs. Sometimes it was inexperience (Curlin), sometimes it was they ran into a buzzsaw (Point Given), sometimes it was just one-of-those-days (Timber Country, Afleet Alex). The Preakness is where they re-established themselves as the best horse of their class.
b. Trip From Hell. Lookin' at Lucky is the obvious horse that falls into this category; you could argue Afleet Alex does too. Basically, these were good horses that had bad trips in the Derby but rebounded once they got to Pimlico and dealt with a smaller field. Importantly, both of these horses were highly regarded before the Derby. Longshots that had bad trips in the Derby and run back to the Preakness generally don't run well, unless they're a...
c. Front Runners That Never Looked Back. Louis Quatorze, Shackleford and Oxbow all went to the front pretty quickly out of the gate and were never caught. Shackleford was the only one of the three that was seriously challenged at all during the race; honestly, we're still not sure how he won the Preakness. Controlling the pace with early speed works in most horses races, it's hardly shocking that it does in the Preakness too.
So does Dortmund fall into any of these categories? He didn't have a bad trip in the Derby; you could argue he had a perfect trip. He could in theory steal the race on the front end, but it looks like an identical pace setup as the Derby, with maybe Bodhisattva adding some speed as well.
Which leaves us with the Clearly Superior Talent. There's a real shot that he could pull a Curlin and turn the tables on American Pharoah if he's truly the better horse, which may be the case if the reports that he had colic a few days before the race are true and affected his performance. But we don't think that's the case. He had no visible excuse for fading in the final 1/8th of the Derby, and he looked inferior to the top two finishers. He could rebound and move forward on Saturday, but we're skeptical, and think he's an excellent miler that's merely a good router.
2. Divining Rod. The X Factor. Normally we're skeptical of the new shooters, because if you were any good, you would have run in the Derby. The few times that new shooters have won or done very well in the Preakness are because they weren't in the Derby for unconventional reasons. Red Bullet was intentionally held back by his owner even though he would have been the 2nd or 3rd choice in the 2000 Derby; he won the Preakness easily when he basically faced Fusaichi Pegasus and a bunch of stiffs. Rachel Alexandra ran in the Kentucky Oaks, a natural goal for a 3yo filly. When she won by the length of 4 football fields, her new owners wisely decided to try out the boys. Bernardini and Rock Hard Ten (2nd in 2004) were making their 4th career starts and weren't able to run in the Derby, even though it was clear from their limited records that they were talented enough to compete in Grade 1 races.
Divining Rod may fall into this category too. Well-bred for the turf (his dam won multiple graded stakes on the sod), after a start on the turf and in an off-the-turf maiden race, he was entered in the Sam Davis Stakes as something of a lark, and ran an good 2nd at 28-1. He regressed in the Tampa Bay Derby where he was well-beaten by Carpe Diem and pointed for the Lexington, which is usually a last-ditch stop for horses looking to make the Derby. He ran quite well, rating off a moderate/slow pace and pulling away convincingly in the stretch. While he qualified for and could have run in the Derby, his connections opted to wait for the Preakness, concerned the Derby was too much too soon. It wasn't a bad idea. His speed figure was a new top that's just a shade below the American Pharoah/Firing Line/Dortmund trio, and he seems to be on the upswing. And he's going to be around 12-1. Definitely a contender if he builds off his Lexington.
1. American Pharoah. Way to go out on a limb, we know. But let's put aside the talent, which is obvious, and the fact that this race is going to set up for him perfectly again, with a small field and a coterie of horses that will give him something to track. We're dealing with Bob Baffert, who is called a great Derby trainer, but is really an outstanding Preakness trainer. He's come into this race with the Derby winner three times; all three of them repeated He's come in twice with beaten Derby favorites (Point Given and Lookin at Lucky) and won both of those races. He can get a top-shelf horse ready off of two weeks better than anyone other than mid-80s D. Wayne Lukas. And promisingly, American Pharoah is making his 4th start of the year. He should be on the upswing of a form cycle, not over the top. We think he sits just off the leaders, moves to the outside of horses before the far turn, and has the race in hand by the 1/8th pole, giving us a big Belmont day.
How to Play the Preakness
Well American Pharoah is going to be all of 3-5, so a win bet isn't exactly enticing. If you disagree with our analysis and want to take someone else to win, by all means, make a win bet, because they're going to be an okay price. Otherwise, we say take AP-Divining Rod exactas, or if you're ambitious, try the Black Eyed Susan-Preakness double (we like Luminance and Sweetgrass in the former).
Good luck to all and enjoy the Preakness!
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