2013 Preakness Preview

Well that was satisfying.

We're not going to lie - we haven't been happier after a race than we were after Orb won the Derby, and that includes some races where we had significant cashes.  Orb's dominant win was the public validation that Shug deserved after decades of being known to everyone in racing as a great trainer but fairly anonymous to the rest of the sports world.  That and the horse appears to be quite talented.  Orb obviously wasn't a fluke winner a la Giacomo or Mine That Bird, nor was he a fortunate winner like Super Saver, Funny Cide or War Emblem, all of which benefited from a fortuitous confluence of circumstances. His  win was the best Derby performance since Big Brown's in 2008, and was probably even better than that since Big Brown beat a class of horses that, frankly, stunk.

But as we all know, horses that look like world-beaters in the Derby don't always take the Preakness.  Fusaichi Pegasus looked similarly invincible in 2000 and lost to Red Bullet.  Monarchos ran a sub-2 minute Derby in 2001 and finished 6th in the Preakness.  Barbaro...well, moving right along.  And Street Sense got out-and-out beaten in the final furlongs by Curlin.  Now that was a stellar crop of horses and a great race (jump to 1:45):

So is another upset in store for Saturday?  Let's count down the runners from worst to first, with the assumption that it's a fast track at Pimlico.

We're Not Seeing It

9.  Titletown Five.  Unlike a lot of the recent editions of the Preakness, this year's race isn't full of horses that didn't run in the Derby and have absolutely no hope in the Preakness.  We have only three new shooters in Saturday's race, and this is the only one that clearly doesn't belong.  After breaking his maiden, he ran second in something called the Gazebo Stakes, followed by a horrible finish in the Louisiana Derby and a non-threatening fourth in the Derby Trial.  We also guarantee that this horse is going to get a lot more play than people think, between D. Wayne Lukas being his trainer and his owner being Paul Hornung.

8.  Oxbow.  While he did run 6th in the Derby, we can't help thinking that was simply a default finish on a day where the unforeseen early pace fried a few horses and the slop ruined the chances of a couple of others.  He was never in contention, never really threatened the top 5 finishers, and has pretty much stagnated since winning the Lecomte earlier this year.

Others Like Them, We Don't

7.  Itsmyluckyday.  Okay, we got suckered in at the Derby.  But we're not biting again.  At the end of the day we have a horse that seems to love Gulfstream and run so-so at all other tracks and probably peaked back in February.  And he's gotten slower as the distances have gotten longer, which is hardly a surprise given his breeding.  We do think that he plays an important part in the race though, because we wouldn't be surprised to see him chasing...

6.  Goldencents.  ...the horse that everyone thought was going to be on the lead in the Derby but wasn't.  So it wasn't Kevin Krigger's best move to put him 5 lengths off the pace, but would it have mattered?  Had he dueled with Palice Malice, he would have been fried.  Now he'll get a second chance to lull everyone to sleep with an early pace.  But we see three enormous problems with this strategy.  First, based on his breeding, we still don't think this horse wants the distance.  Second, we're not so sure he's going to get an easy lead, because we think Itsmyluckyday, Titletown Five and possibly Oxbow will also show speed.  Third, the lulling the field to sleep strategy is not the way to win the Preakness.  Since Louis Quatorze pulled it off in 1996, the only front-runners that have won the Preakness were War Emblem ('02) and Rachel Alexandra ('09).  The former was a legitimate runner with good early speed that it could carry for 9-10 furlongs; the latter was a Hall of Fame horse.  Goldencents is neither.  To us, he's a horse that was fortunate to win the Santa Anita Derby under perfect circumstances, and at 5-1, is a great bet-against on Saturday.

5.  Departing.  The likely second or third choice in the race, he exits a win in the Illinois Derby and only has one defeat in his 5 career starts.  His Illinois Derby win is pretty much irrelevant to us, as the race did not contain a single horse that was on the Triple Crown trail.  It's his third place finish in the Louisiana Derby that is more interesting to us, as he ran okay, but was passed late by both Revolutionary and Mylute and was almost passed by Golden Soul, the Derby runner-up.  An optimist would say that makes the Louisiana Derby a key race and his chances should be upgraded.  We're more pessimistic - we see no reason he can turn the tables on Mylute, and since Revolutionary and Golden Soul were beaten somewhat handily by Orb, we don't see how he closes the theoretical gap, especially since his breeding on the sire's side is pretty sprint-oriented.  And he's going to be about 9-2.  We're looking elsewhere.

4.  Mylute.  We still don't know what to make of this horse.  Excellent jockey Rosie Napravenik wisely turned him back into a stone closer in the Derby and he rallied to finish 5th, beaten about a length for second.  He ran a good "Sheets" number in the race, meaning while taking into account trip, etc., he was probably the second-best horse in the race.  That said, he was no threat to the winner and still strikes us as a horse that is more of a closing sprinter than a router - his father was two-time BC Sprint winner Midnight Lute and his dam is by sprinter Valid Expectations.  With a little less pace to run at in this race, he's going to be up against it if he's too far back, but we're not sure he has enough staying power to run with the front of the pack early and hold off the closers late.  He's got a shot to hit the board, but we think the win slot is highly unlikely.

In With a Chance

3.  Will Take Charge.  The three horses that have gotten the most discussion out of the Derby are the winner, Normandy Invasion (we'll get to him in the Belmont preview), and this guy, who had a horrible trip.  Take a look at the overhead shot at about the 0:43 mark; he's the horse in the white silks directly to the inside of Orb:

At you'll see, he comes to basically a dead stop when they hit the top of the stretch, as tiring Verrazano was directly in his path and caused his jockey to slam on the brakes.  We don't think he would have caught the winner - he was moving inside of him, remember - but he likely would have held on for a spot in the money.  Now couple this with the fact that Will Take Charge clearly prefers a fast track to a wet track - he flopped in his lone prior start on a sloppy surface, and his prior two runs on a fast track were both wins - and that he's well-bred for the distance, and gets a bump by going from jockey Jon Court to Mike Smith, and his chances look even better.  That said, he still has a lot of ground to make up on the Derby winner, as he still hasn't cracked a 3-digit speed figure in his 8-race career.

2.  Govenor Charlie.  He's only had three starts to date but the last two were quite good - a strong maiden win followed by a dominating performance in the Sunland Derby.  He was bound for the Derby until he came up with a foot bruise a week before the race, and trainer Bob Baffert decided to point him to the Preakness instead.  After a good workout on Monday, he's back on the Triple Crown trail with we think a chance to do something at a price.

Now we'll acknowledge there are a bunch of issues with this horse - he hasn't faced a single top-level horse yet, his breeding does have a fair amount of sprint influence (like Mylute, he's out of Midnight Lute), and he did have an injury significant enough to knock him out of the Derby.  But there are a lot of positives on the other side of the ledger; the presence of Baffert (who's won this race 5 times), a solid jockey in Martin Garcia (who won this race with Baffert on Lookin at Lucky in '10), good dam side breeding (his granddam is Hall of Famer Silverbulletday), a good workout to show he's healed, and the potential for a lot of improvement since it's his 4th career start.  And most importantly: the price.  He's 15-1 on the morning line and we think he'll be the second or third longest shot on the board.  We feel that if anyone's going to turn the tables on the winner, it's either going to be a horse with a bad trip in the Derby (Will Take Charge) or a newbie that makes The Proverbial Leap.  At 20-1 or so, he's definitely worth the gamble.

The Pick

1.  Orb.  Simply stated there's no reason to go against him.  The track condition doesn't matter as he has dominant wins on the slop and dirt.  He closed from the back of the pack to win last race but showed in the Florida Derby he can lay close if needed which is likely the case here.  He has a great trainer and the hottest jockey in America.  And he's likely still improving, as evidenced by his workout earlier in the week that left Shug McGaughey "breathless." When a trainer who eschews hyperbole is speaking in such reverent tones, we pay attention.  We think it's all setting up for a neat rematch in the Belmont with Revolutionary and Normandy Invasion coupled with a Triple Crown on the line, and are very excited to see him run on Saturday.  We think he improves yet again and runs away with the race.

How to Play the Race

Orb is going to be around 4-5, and while we think he's going to win, it's hard to argue that 4-5 is great value.  We can see saver bets on Will Take Charge and Govenor Charlie if they're over 10-1 and 20-1 respectively, but would avoid most other horses in the win slot.  The better idea is exotics: either keying Orb over those two horses and Mylute in triples and superfectas, or use Orb as a single in multi-race bets.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the Preakness!

2013 Kentucky Derby Preview Part I: In Praise of Shug McGaughey

Ask most casual horse racing fans who they think is the best trainer and you'll most likely get Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert in response.  We couldn't really argue with either of those selections.  Pletcher has won the trainer Eclipse award five times, has been the leading money trainer by money earned six times, and has won 40 training titles at premier meets up and down the East Coast.  He's also won two Triple Crown races, 7 Breeders Cup races, and approximately 6,000 graded stakes race.  Baffert has been equally impressive, winning 9 Triple Crown races, 7 Breeders Cup races, and a slew of other Grade 1 races while taking home 4 Eclipse Awards for best trainer.

A slightly less conventional but equally good answer would be any of Bill Mott, Dale Romans or Steve Asmussen.  Mott hasn't been that big a player in the Triple Crown (Drosselmeyer in 2010 was his only win) but has 8 Breeders Cup races to his name and won the training title at Saratoga 9 times.  Everyone knows that Mott can win with pretty much any type of horse on any surface.  Romans has been a little more of a recent revelation but his work with "underdog" horses like Shackleford and Tapitsfly lead him to last year's Eclipse title.  Asmusssen trained two of the best horses from the last decade (Curlin, Rachel Alexandra), won the most races in America 6 straight years, and has a pair of Eclipse Awards to his name.

You couldn't go wrong with any of these five men as your trainer.  But if we could pick anyone active to train our horse, without a question, we'd take Shug McGaughey.  Shug's work is a little less known to those who aren't hardcore racing fans, but the Kentuckyian is one of the most respected trainers in America.  He was elected to the racing Hall of Fame in 2004, having trained:

• Personal Ensign, who went 14-for-14 and was on everyone's shortlist of greatest older females until Zenyatta came along;
• Easy Goer, who we'll discuss more below, but is a Hall of Fame 3 year old.;
• Lure, the winner of two consecutive Breeders Cup Miles;
• My Flag, the daughter of Personal Ensign, who won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, three over Grade 1s, and finished in the money in the Belmont;
• Storm Flag Flying, the daughter of My Flag who also won the BC Juvenile Fillies, making it three generations of BC winners;
• Inside Information, who won the Breeders Cup Distaff over her highly accomplished stablemate Heavenly Prize by a dozen lengths;
• Breeders Cup winners Dancing Spree and Pleasant Home; and
• Several dozen Grade 1 races with horses whose names have largely been forgotten, such as Pine Island, Versailles Treaty, Glitter Woman, Finder's Fee, Strolling Along, Good Reward and Aldiza.

The best day of Shug's career was undoubtedly October 16, 1993, which was dubbed Super Shug Day by most Belmont denizens.  Belmont Park held its "Breeders Cup Preview" day with six races directly tied to Breeders Cup races to come in a few weeks.  Shug won five of them, as Heavenly Prize and Dispute dominated the filly races, Lure won the mile turf race, Strolling Along won the 3yo turf race, and Miner's Mark pulled off an upset in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  When Richard Mandella won 4 Breeders Cup races on a single day in 2003, Super Shug Day was what most people compared it to.

There has been very little that McGaughey has done wrong.  His horses are never rushed, they're rarely spotted poorly, and always have good, classical breeding.  On top of that, we can speak from personal experience that he's an absolutely wonderful guy on a personal level - he has never hesitated to stop to talk about racing or Kentucky basketball with anyone and knows that fans and bettors are the fulcrum of the sport.

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There are two big reasons why Shug isn't well-known to the general public.  The first is that he essentially trains for two owners: the Phipps family and Stuart Janney (of Bessemer Trust fame).  Both are classic old-school owners that eschew auctions and publicity.  They're throwbacks to the days of the Vanderbilts and Calmuet Farms dominating racing, and they keep their lineage alive by keeping their mares, breeding them to blue-blooded stallions, not selling off their progeny, and only letting their horses run when they're ready.  You will not see Stuart Janney or Dinny Phipps holding a circus press conference like IEAH Stables or Jess Jackson, or having a vanity entry in the Kentucky Derby.  It's just not their style.

The second reason is that Shug has been extremely quiet on the Triple Crown trail, as much of his success in the last 20 years has come with females and older males. He's run six horses in the Kentucky Derby, and only one since 1989 - the extremely disappointing Saarland, who ran a lackluster 10th.  He hasn't had a memorable moment or entrant in the Preakness since 1989.  His only runner of note in the Belmont was My Flag's quasi-historic 3rd in 1995 - which is now 18 years ago.

Shug's biggest moment in the Triple Crown came in 1989 when he brought Super Horse Easy Goer to the Derby.  Easy Goer's greatness was obvious - he was the champion 2 year old colt, won the Wood, and was a gorgeous animal.  Unfortunately, Easy Goer picked a tough year to compete and lost the Derby and Preakness to nemesis Sunday Silence, the latter producing arguably the greatest race of the last 30 years:
 

Easy Goer gained revenge in the Belmont winning by 5 lengths and running the second-fastest time ever behind Secretariat, then followed up with wins in the Whitney, Travers, Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup - a feat that has never been matched and will almost certainly never be tried, as the 4 races are in a span of less than 10 weeks.  He went to the Breeders Cup Classic to try for Horse of the Year...only to fall a length shy of Sunday Silence once again.

Sbug's other great opportunity for Triple Crown glory came in 1998 with Coronado's Quest, and while most people have forgotten about this horse, we'd bet that private Shug considers him the Great Horse that got away  After dominating the Aqueduct 2yo circuit by winning 3 stakes races, Coronado's Quest shipped to Florida with a ton of hype as the alternative to reigning Horse of the Year Favorite Trick.  While showing an immense amount of talent, he also showed a ton of immaturity, as he was impossible to handle during pre-race warmups, and couldn't be easily saddled before some races.  He tried the Florida prep circuit but his temperament lead him to become an uncontrollable speedball, at which point Shug essentially gave up on trying to get the horse in front of 160,000 people at Louisville and changed course to prestigious but not Triple Crown races.  What then followed was a stellar 5-race winning streak in the Wood, Riva Ridge, Dwyer, Haskell and Travers, where he beat every 3yo of note (except Real Quiet, who didn't race again after the Belmont).  He ended his career on something of a down note - a 5th place finish in the Breeders Cup Classic, after leading the entire way and meeting one of the best fields ever assembled, and a loss in the Cigar Mile when he was over the top.  But nobody ever doubted that this horse was talented and had the ability to stay a distance.  Had the horse's head been screwed on straight in early May, we're convinced he would have won the Derby and Real Quiet's name would be lost to trivia.

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As amazing as Super Shug Day was, Saturday stands the chance to be the best day of McGaughey's career.  After running his talented mare Hungry Island in the Distaff Mile, in the race before the Derby, the Woodford Reserve, a 1 1/8 mile race on the turf, Point of Entry is going for his second win of the year, having beaten Derby and Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom in his last.  Point of Entry was one of the best horses to train last year, having won 4 straight Grade 1's on the turf only to fall short in the BC Turf mainly because of a horrible ride.  The Woodford looked like a walkover for Point of Entry until Monday, when Charles LoPresti announced that 2012 Horse of the Year Wise Dan would be running as well.  With all due respect to the Derby, this is the matchup that most racing fans have wanted to see, as these are the two best horses in training in America.  It's a fascinating race from many angles - it's a little longer than most of Wise Dan's successes, it's shorter than Point of Entry likes - but if POE knocks off Wise Dan, he immediately goes to the front of the line for 2013 Horse of the Year honors.  We honestly think the race is pretty much a 50/50 proposition between the two horses and can't wait to see them square off.

Then comes the Derby, where Shug has entered Orb.  As we've noted, this is the first runner he's had in the Derby in 11 years, and unlike Saarland, he has a big shot.  After taking 4 starts to break his maiden, he won a nice optional claiming race at Gulfstream, and was advanced into the Fountain of Youth.  There, he sat well off a hot pace and closed like a rocket on the far turn and got by 3-5 favorite Violence in the stretch to win.  He then returned in the Florida Derby against favored Itsmyluckyday - who had looked dominant at Gulfstream to date - and Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby.  This time, Orb sat fairly close to a moderate pace and took over in the final yards to win by almost 3 lengths.  While not a fast time against the clock, it was a slow-paced race and his stretch run left little doubt that he would relish 10 furlongs.  And it showed great versatility, as proved to be a horse that didn't need to close from the back of the pack to win.

While we're going to analyze the Derby field as objectively as possible over the next two days, we will admit here and now that we're rooting for Shug.  A Derby win would be the career validation that one of the nicest guys in racing deserves.  And a welcome tonic to a lot of the bad press that racing has received over the last couple of years.  If Orb comes through, one of the good guys and greatest trainers in the sport won the big race.  It would truly be something to celebrate.