2016 Belmont Preview

For the umpteenth time, we were wrong with Nyquist.  We're convinced this horse exists solely to make us look stupid, and more importantly, cost us money.  But at least he's out of the Belmont, which relieves us of the burden of trying to figure out which way his form is going and trying to guess wrong yet again.  Instead, we have an eclectic 13-horse field that is more wide-open that it appears at first glance. 

Let's get to this year's edition of the Test of Champions, and see if we can extend our streak of picking the winner to 5 straight years.  As always, we're assuming that the track is fast and fair.

Not Again

13.  Trojan Nation.  The only surprising thing about his Derby was that he wasn't the longest shot on the board and only went off at 40-1.  Other than that he didn't disappoint - he broke horribly and was never closer than 20 lengths behind the leader, and only beat horses that were eased or had given up.  Why does the owner keep wasting their money on these races when he still hasn't won a race?

The Easy Goer Is a Better Spot For You

12.  Seeking the Soul. 

11.  Forever d'Oro.  We're putting both of these guys together because they're functionally speaking the same horse.  Both are owned by Charles Fipke, trained by Dallas Stewart - who we acknowledged in the Derby preview can get a longshot home underneath at a price - and enter in off maiden wins.  Neither ran particularly fast, neither has tactical speed that gives them any type of advantage on the field, and they're both taking a major hike in class.  We rate Forever d'Oro slightly higher because he is well-bred, but this is a helluva a spot to make your stakes debut.

10.  Gettysburg.  This guy was entered mostly to guarantee a fast pace for a couple of other horses in the race.  There's a remote chance that he steals the race on the front end, but given that he continuously fades late at shorter distances, we'll side against.

9.  Governor Malibu.  Some people are giving this guy an outside chance because he's the same trainer and jockey as 2014 Belmont winner Tonalist and has had some good recent efforts.  We're not impressed.  His 2nd in the Peter Pan was a crawling gain on a horse that was tiring while stretching out two furlongs.  His prior races were slow efforts in state-bred company or against horses in Maryland that would be 30-1 here. But sure, take 8-1 on him against the best 3-year-olds in the country.

Up Against It

8.  Cherry Wine.  He ran about as well as we expected in the Preakness, closing into a solid pace to catch a piece.  The fact he finished second rather than 3rd or 4th was in part because Nyquist ran worse than we expected and Cherry Wine absolutely loved the slop.  We're skeptical of those who are calling him a horse on the rise with a big shot Saturday.  Dead closers like him are up against it in the Belmont generally, and there isn't a ton of speed in the race.  And he still isn't that fast.  Speaking of which...

7.  Brody's Cause. At Keeneland this guy's a monster: two Grade 1 wins and a solid 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  Outside of Keeneland, he's a disaster: a maiden win and 3 losses by a total of 47 lengths.  And like Cherry Wine, he's a slow closer.  There's always a chance he clunks up to hit the board, but that's also the profile of several others who are just faster.

6.  Lani.  Random prediction: he gets bet and goes off about half the price of his 20-1 morning line odds.  He has evolved a bit from the butt of jokes before the Derby - people have been talking up his workouts the last few weeks, and he did show some improvement from the Derby to the Preakness.  But he still wasn't that close to Exaggerator, finished behind two other horses that are running in this race, and hasn't shown any type of explosive speed or staying power that we think is necessary to win the Belmont. 

Not Impossible

5.  Exaggerator. He's a very good horse and has run faster than almost everyone in this field.  He absolutely can win on Saturday.   Hell, he's a real contender for Horse of the Year if he continues to improve.  But we cannot, and will not, endorse taking even money on a horse that does his best running when he closes from well out of it on a sloppy track.  That defines a money-losing proposition.  At that point, why not take a shot on...

4.  Creator.  He's the main reason that Gettysburg is here, because as a dead closer, his mission looked very difficult without any true speed horse in the race.  Gettysburg at least makes it likely that he'll have some pace to run at.  His Derby is a borderline complete toss because he had horrendous traffic issues and never got a fair run at anything.  He's got a chance here if he's a little closer to the pace and gets a fair trip.  From the 13 post, we're a little hesitant to pick up on top, but to hit the board at 12-1?  Very live.

Contenders

3.  Stradivari.  His Preakness was fairly good - in only his 4th career start and stakes debut, he sat close to a brisk pace, went very wide on the far turn, ran on a sloppy track for the first time, and still was only beaten a half-length for second.  There's an excellent possibility that he moves forward off that race especially on a faster track.  We also like that he has tactical speed in a race without a ton of early speed.  There's a chance that he's the most talented horse in the field and shows it on Saturday.  That said, we think there are a pair of horses that are better than him right now.

2.  Suddenbreakingnews. We're not going to dispute that the two best horses on Derby Day were Nyquist and Exaggerator.  But this guy was probably the 3rd best.  He had trouble early on in the race, which put him next-to-last and a whopping twenty-seven lengths behind the front runners.  (Exaggerator, by contrast, was 17 lengths off the pace.)  Despite this and going wide on the far turn, he rallied stoutly from the back of the pack, winding up 5th and only a couple of jumps from third place.  With a better trip, he easily would have been third and could have contended for second.

Now yes, dead closers like him are always vulnerable to bad trips.  And we've already noted that closers are tough bets in the Belmont and that there isn't a ton of pace here.  But we think this guy has a ton of talent that he's shown in his last 3 races, even if it hasn't translated into wins.  And while we don't love Mike Smith, we think he's a huge improvement over Luis Quinonez, who we think may have waited too long with this guy time and again.  We wouldn't be surprised to see Smith ride him a bit more aggressively and try to keep him in closer contact with the leaders.  That would give him a big shot, but to us, still makes him second-best.

The Pick

1.  Destin. Yep, we're doubling down with our failed Derby pick.  We know, he ran 6th without much of an excuse.  But we thought it was a nice effort.  Asking him to deliver a peak effort off an 8-week layoff probably was a tougher task than we acknowledge, and his fade in the final 600 yards was likely due to the lack of recency.  If he moves forward off that - a common trend, to improve second off a brief layoff - he'll be dangerous.  More importantly, we love his tactical speed, like Pletcher/Castellano in this spot, and think his breeding is perfect for the 12 furlongs.  We think he sits about 3-4 lengths off the pace, starts grinding away at the lead on the far turn, and holds off the closers in the stretch to give Pletcher his 3rd Belmont win.

Good luck to all and enjoy the Belmont!

2015 Belmont Stakes Preview

There's plenty to say about the elite horses running in the Belmont, so let's get the lesser portion of the field out of the way quickly.

We acknowledge that crazy things happen in the Belmont  - all you need to do is remember the names Da'Tara, Sarava, Lemon Drop Kid and Birdstone, all of which were over 25-1 and ruined Triple Crown bids.  And we know that Nick Zito has upset the Triple Crown twice with a pair of those bombs (Da'Tara and Birdstone).  But Frammento has less to offer than those two horses, who at least had back class or good recent races to their credit.  Frammento has neither.

The same is true for Keen Ice, who hasn't run a good race in 7 months and still hasn't won a meaningful one.  Dale Romans is a great trainer, but this guy should be running earlier on the card in the Easy Goer, not the Belmont.  A win by either him or Frammento would be a Sarava-level shock.

Tale of Verve and Madefromlucky are ahead of those two because we can see either of them finishing in the money, but can't see either winning.  Madefromlucky was annihilated by American Pharoah twice earlier this year, and while he did win his last race, it wasn't in a blistering time or against a great field.  Tale of Verve closed on a sloppy Preakness track where nobody other than the winner ran at all, and basically finished second by default.  His breeding and running style mean that it wouldn't be a surprise if he finished in the superfecta, but it's tough to make a case for him beating seven other horses.

We're also not interested in Mubtaahij, who quietly had a very easy trip in the Derby - rating off the speed, on the rail, without traffic issues - and showed nothing in the stretch.  His breeding still doesn't scream dirt and he finished behind literally half the horses in this race with no excuse.  If we were setting a morning line for which horse was most likely to finish last, he'd be the favorite.

We give this quintet of horses a collective 4% shot to win the race; meaning they're about 25-1 as a group.  Sadly, we suspect that you won't get that price on any of those horses except Frammento.  Don't be tempted when you see Tale of Verve sitting at 18-1 and think it's a bargain.  It's not.

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On to the real contenders.  The case for American Pharoah is pretty easy and straightforward.  His Derby was probably his worst start since his maiden race and he defeated all top 3 year olds in the country with relative ease.  His Preakness was outstanding, and was almost a paid workout in the slop.  And speaking of workouts, his last two have been utterly gorgeous.  Here's his workout from Monday (jump to about 4:20):

The case against American Pharoah has been made by countless others and in other years when a Triple Crown is on the line.  Horses aren't bred like once were and can't run the distance.  Three races in five weeks is a lot to ask.  New shooters are have a huge advantage over horses that have been asked to compete in all three legs.  He hasn't run at Belmont before.  The pressure may get to the jockey. 

None of these are particularly appealing to us.  If Victor Espinoza can't handle the pressure despite having won 6 Triple Crown races and having a horse that's versatile and talented, then we don't know what to say.  The breeding on this guy is fine - his grandfather did win this race after all.  The fact he's never run at Belmont is a complete red herring to us - neither had Summer Bird, Rags to Riches, Ruler on Ice or Sarava, and they all won the Belmont.

And sure, American Pharoah may regress.  In any race, any horse may regress.  But there's absolutely no reason to think that a bad effort is coming.  Watch that workout again.  This horse is in fine form and is working out brilliantly.  Even if he regresses a little, someone is going to have to improve to beat him. 

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Only two horses appear to be able to take the next step forward and challenge him for the win slot.  The first is morning line second choice Frosted, who was last seen running 4th in the Derby.  We'll admit that there's some stuff to like here - trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is outstanding, his breeding is decent enough for the distance, and he has run well in his last two starts.

But we're very skeptical.  His Wood gets a giant asterisk from us because it was at Aqueduct, and as we noted in the Derby preview, he's a monster at Aqueduct (3/2-1-0), and ordinary everywhere else (5/0-3-0).  His 4th in the Derby is getting some accolades because he closed well and had some traffic trouble.  But to us that was a typical clunk-up finish, passing other tiring horses.  He was wide on the turns at Churchill and lost ground, but didn't really have a bad trip per se.  He tried to close from the back of the pack.  You know what happens when you try that?  You usually have to go wide and lose ground.  He may have been slightly closer to the top 3 with a better trip, but at the same time, may not have had the type of sustained rally that got him in 4th.

We're also generally skeptical of closers in the Belmont (while acknowledging that McLaughlin trained a dead closer that won the Belmont in Jazil).  Usually it takes tactical speed and a grinding ability to win the race.  Frosted doesn't run like that.  His best efforts at Aqueduct all had big moves on the turn.  So did his Derby.  Even his Fountain of Youth, where he ran a crummy 4th, consisted of a big move on the turn then a dead stop at the top of the stretch.  Generally, if you try to make a big move on the turn at the Belmont, you have nothing left for the stretch and fade miserably - recall the losing efforts by Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Mine That Bird in 2009.  So what does he do - try to make a sweeping move and gut it out for 2 extra furlongs, or attend to the pace and lose the closing bid that's made him successful?  It's a Hobson's Choice that we think sinks him.

Which leaves us with Materiality, whose troubled 6th place finish in the Derby has been noted by nearly everyone.  Unlike Frosted, he actually had a bad trip in the Derby.  He was shuffled back early and not allowed to flaunt his early speed, putting him next to last early in the race, which is not how he ran his first three races.  That he closed to 6th despite having the worst of it was a credit.  It's very reminiscent of the Trip From Hell that Lookin at Lucky had in the 2010 Derby.  And he rebounded to win the Preakness.

Adding to Materiality's credentials are his connections - Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez need no introduction here - and that he sports the highest speed figure in the entire field from his Florida Derby win.  And he's making his 5th career start, meaning there's clearly room for improvement.  Equally importantly, his draw (8 post) means that he should go just to the outside of American Pharoah and keep him in his sights.  We don't think that these two are going to engage in a speed duel; the point is that he's going to keep American Pharoah honest and not let him sneak away.

The negatives on Materiality -- other than he's not American Pharoah -- are small but exist.  The fact that he hasn't won a race away from Gulfstream bothers us a little bit.  If we're going to doink Frosted for being a horse for the course, we have to at least acknowledge that the same may be true for Materiality.  We're also not in love with his breeding.  Yes his father won the Belmont and has sired a Travers winner (Afleet Express), but we're still not a big fan of his as a distance sire.  And his dam is the daughter of rank sprinter Langfuhr.  If it comes down to a battle of who's better bred to get the final 2 furlongs, we're siding with American Pharoah.

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For years, when horses have made their bid attempt for the Triple Crown, the racing press have sneered at them as unfit to join the Pantheon with War Admiral, Citation, and Secretariat.  Everyone other than Dick Dutrow was rooting against Big Brown because of his unsavory trainer and owners, and felt they didn't belong with the likes of Billy Turner and Penny Chenery.  People picked War Emblem, Charismatic and I'll Have Another to lose because they didn't have race records before the Triple Crown that made people think they were appropriate Triple Crown winners.  Even Smarty Jones, who most people loved, was greeted with skepticism because he came from a racing backwater (Pennsylvania) and had run against nothing until his race before the Derby.  People thought he was neat, but "greatness" and "historic" seemed to escape him.

Perhaps nobody put this better than Steve Crist when writing about Funny Cide's attempt to take the Triple Crown in 2003:

The other reason I feel compelled to pick against Funny Cide is that for all his admirable qualities and likeability, he seems to stand outside the circle of greatness that characterized the only three horses to have won a crown in the last 50 years. The game has changed since the days of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed, but I still want the next Triple Crown winner to be a champion at 2 rather than a winner of three restricted statebred races.

Well, here's the list of all the horses that have won the Eclipse for champion 2 year old and entered the Belmont with a shot at the Triple Crown:

Year	Horse	Belmont Finish
1973	Secretariat	1st
1977	Seattle Slew	1st
1978	Affirmed	1st
1979	Spectacular Bid	3rd
2015	American Pharoah	???

American Pharoah isn't a horse that's gotten hot for 2 months.  He isn't someone who's lucked into a pair of Triple Crown wins.  He isn't some mediocrity that's been dominating a bad group of horses.  He's been the best horse in this class for nearly a year.  Since losing his maiden race, he's won every race he's entered, has dominated almost all of them, and has beaten every notable member of his class in the process.

It's time.

Picks

1.  American Pharoah
2.  Materiality
3.  Tale of Verve
4.  Madefromlucky

Enjoy Belmont Day everyone!

2014 Belmont Stakes Preview Part II: The Countdown

Since we started following racing in the early '90s, there have been 8 horses that have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown.  We have picked against each and every one of them.  Now in one respect, we've been right each and every time, as none of the Derby-Preakness winners have come back and won the Triple Crown.  But our picks...well, this chart sums it up and brings back some horrific memories:

Year	TC Candidate	Our Pick	Our Pick’s Finish	Winner
1997	Silver Charm	Crypto Star	4th	Touch Gold
1998	Real Quiet	Parade Ground	4th	Victory Gallop
1999	Charismatic	Best of Luck	4th	Lemon Drop Kid
2002	War Emblem	Sunday Break	3rd	Sarava
2003	Funny Cide	Dynever	4th	Empire Maker
2004	Smarty Jones	Rock Hard Ten	5th	Birdstone
2008	Big Brown	Denis of Cork	2nd	Da’Tara
2012	I’ll Have Another	Union Rags	1st (!!)	Union Rags

So by and large, we're good for picking the horse that rounds out the superfecta, and our one win came the year the horse going for the Crown scratched.  Brilliant.  Still, we would like to think that it is not hopeless to handicap the Belmont when the Triple Crown is on the line.  And we are riding a streak of picking consecutive Belmont winners.  More importantly, we do think we have a good feel for this year's edition.  So let's get to the countdown, from the worst of the 11 entrants to our pick.  As always, we're assuming the track is fast and relatively fair.

Remember Da'Tara!

11.  Matterhorn. Since breaking his maiden last year, this well-bred and expensive Todd Pletcher steed has run no better than third and has never been closer than 6 1/4 lengths to the winner of a race.  Every year we get rich owners with a well-bred horse taking a stab at the Belmont, either because they think he'll prevail on breeding alone or because they want good seats and to impress their friends in Greenwich.  Almost every year, the horse runs horribly.

10.  Matuszak. Spent his last two races futilely chasing Kid Cruz, who found the Triple Crown waters too deep in the Preakness and is skipping the Belmont for the ungraded Easy Goer stakes earlier on the card.  I suppose the connections of Matuszak figured they can't beat Kid Cruz, so they may as well look elsewhere, and oddly, arrived at the Belmont Stakes.  Oh.

9.  General a Rod.  This guy does his best running on the lead and seems to have distance limitations, a combination that's deadly in the Belmont.  We do think his presence matters though because he'll keep California Chrome honest if he chooses to run fast early.  But to win?  No.  He should be done before the far turn and ready for a vacation.

8.  Medal Count.   There are three horses in the Belmont that have more than two wins.  One is California Chrome, the other two are this guy and the next guy.  The reason we're discounting 3-time winner Medal Count is exactly the same as the Derby - show us a good performance on the dirt before we commit to you.  Sure, the Derby was a rodeo race for this guy, and he never really got running.  But we doubt it would have mattered.  Send him back to the turf, please.

7.  Samraat. His 5 wins in 7 starts belies the fact that he isn't bred to go 12 furlongs, has shown no desire to run further than 10 furlongs, and his early speed will probably cook him after 8 furlongs.  It's too bad he's not running in the Woody Stephens earlier on the card (at 7 furlongs!), where he'd be a fascinating entry.  Here, he's merely pace fodder.

Don't Take the Bait

6.  Ride on Curlin. One of the very few things we got right in our Preakness prediction was that this guy would have a new jockey in the Belmont.  Voila, John Velazquez is on board, replacing Joel Rosario.  (The reason why, we'll get to shortly.)  We're still not biting on this guy in the win slot, though.  He still remains winless in a stakes race, doesn't seem to want to flaunt much in the way of tactical speed, and was barely gaining on California Chrome late in a weaker race.  We're also completely unconvinced that his breeding screams 12 furlongs - yes, Curlin is fine as a sire, but his dam was a sprinter out of a rank (albeit good) sprinter.   There are plenty of horses with good dam-side breeding for 12 furlongs, this isn't one of them.  We think the rigors of the Triple Crown catch up to him this race and he's nowhere to be found in the stretch.

5.  Commanding Curve. He is very well bred for the distance, but is similarly challenged in the win column.  We're also completely unconvinced that he isn't just this year's version of Invisible Ink, Wheelaway, Nehro, Golden Soul, Ice Box, and Make Music For Me  - a horse that runs much better than expected in the Derby, skips the Preakness to rest for the Belmont, but ends up regressing at Big Sandy.  Lastly, his past performances indicate a plodder that clunks up late.  That doesn't bode well for Saturday in a race that more often than not demands from the winner a modicum tactical speed.

Make it 37 Years

4.  California Chrome. Yeah, we've picked against him twice and looked stupid.  And you know what?  If we look stupid again Saturday, we'll be thrilled.  Make no mistake, we are rooting for this guy.  We've thoroughly enjoyed his run this winter and spring.  He's a really, really nice horse, has great tactical speed, and has gotten some great rides from Espinoza.  We think he'd be a worthy Triple Crown winner, and no matter what happens on Saturday, we want him to run a lot more this year, next year and in 2016.  Which we think is probable if he loses - his breeding isn't exactly the type that's going to get a great stud deal.

But as to his chances in the big race....we're less than sanguine. We've already been on the record twice with our reservations and they haven't changed - he hasn't had a bad trip yet, is susceptible to speed horses (of which there are several in this race), and we're concerned about jockey error in the pressure cooker.  Now throw in 3 races in 5 weeks, or more accurately, 4 races in 9 weeks.  And throw in the fact that he is not bred for 12 furlongs.  And that in both of his last two races, he looked like he was slowing down in the final furlong, indicating, as we suspect, that he's an elite 9 furlong horse and just okay at a route.

People are equating him to Affirmed, who had tactical speed and made his own racing luck.  We don't agree.  We see Smarty Jones redux - a great miler who could win at longer than 9 furlongs on his best day but would burn himself out at long distances against long-winded horses.  We think he's spent by the top of the stretch, gets passed by each of the next three horses, and recuperates this summer in California to prepare for the Breeders Cup.

Contenders

3.  Wicked Strong.  All things being equal, his Derby wasn't terrible.  He had a bad stumble out of the gate, was caught in some bad traffic around both turns, but still had enough power to get up for 4th even with a moderate/slow pace in front of him.  We're siding with others over him because he is a closer in the Belmont, and historically, deep closers are up against it while closers that lie a little closer to the pace have a better shot.  It depends just how far back jockey Rajiv Maragh wants to keep this guy; if it's 10 lengths, we don't like him to win, but if it's just 5-6 lengths, then he has a big shot.  The only real thing not to love is his price; we think he'll be around 9-2, which is okay, but not great.  By contrast...

2.  Commissioner. This guy is going to be around 20-1, even though he's perfectly bred for the distance, has Todd Pletcher in his corner and has a shot.  Now there are good reasons why this guy is going to be a long price - he completely no-showed in the Arkansas Derby against the likes of Ride of Curlin, was a non-threatening third in the Sunland Derby against lower-level competition, and was well behind General A Rod in the Fountain of Youth.  So if we're simply going off his prior races against top-shelf horses, he comes up well short.  But his 2nd in the Peter Pan last out was encouraging; he showed good tactical speed under a more aggressive ride by new jockey Javier Castellano - who's back aboard on Saturday - and finished well against a good winner.  If he takes that more aggressive tactic and stays near the pace, we think he'll be a factor come the stretch, because he's bred up and down for the distance.  Very, very live.

The Pick

1.  Tonalist. We have been waiting to bet this horse in the Triple Crown since he broke his maiden at Gulfstream in impressive fashion.  His next start was in a salty allowance race, won by Constitution (who won the Florida Derby next out), where Tonalist ran a very good second on a track where horses off the pace had no shot.  Importantly, the 4th place finisher in that race was Wicked Strong, who came back to win the Wood Memorial and run 4th in the Derby.

This guy missed the last round of preps with an injury.  So instead of trying to shoehorn into the Derby picture, trainer Christophe Clement - who's second to none when it comes to turf horses, and just hasn't had many good dirt runners - waited for the Peter Pan, the local prep for the Belmont.  After a slow start, jockey Joel Rosario pushed him to the front and had him set a moderate pace, and he won easily by 2 1/2 lengths over Commissioner.  He looked great in the process, validating our impressions that this guy might be the best horse in this class of three year olds.

Two things concern us.  First, he's a little light on seasoning with only 4 career starts.  Traditionally horses that win the Belmont have had more experience under their belt; even bombs Da'Tara, Sarava and Ruler on Ice were well-raced.  This may not be coincidental; there's something to be said for having a bunch of races under your belt when asked to go 2-3 furlongs longer than you've ever raced before.  We're concerned, but think his distance breeding offsets the lack of foundation.

The second issue is his speed and 11 post - if he gets caught wide early, he may have to run and get in a speed duel.  But again, we're willing to take that chance because good early speed is more important than a late closing kick.  And he's got tactical speed, not flaunting speed.  He has the distance breeding.  And his connections are as good as they get.  There's a reason that Joel Rosario flew off of Ride on Curlin - he knows this horse is his best chance to win the Belmont.  We think he takes home the carnations on Saturday and extends the Triple Crown drought by yet another year.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the race!!

2014 Belmont Stakes Preview Part I: The Greatness of Tom Durkin

August 31, 2014 will mark Tom Durkin's final day as the racetrack announcer for NYRA, which runs Saratoga, Belmont and Aqueduct.  A mainstay of NYRA since 1990, Durkin was also the voice of the Breeders Cup for over two decades and called all the Triple Crown races for 2001-2010.  He's had an extremely accomplished career, and after calling just shy of a bajillion races, it's no surprise that he's decided to hang up his spurs.

Durkin has long been one of our favorites.  He has a great voice, almost always lets the viewer know exactly where their horse is at all relevant times, and has elan.  And it's not just in the big races, he'll often make a conventional race at a New York track seem like a bigger deal than it actually is, and when appropriate, give the race call the denouement.  The track always felt like a bigger deal when Durkin was calling the races.  There are other announcers we love - Larry Collmus is a dear friend of this blog who we think is second to none, and we love the work of Trevor Denman and Kurt Becker - but Durkin is the voice of racing we grew up on.  We'll miss him.

We're going to honor Durkin by posting our 13 favorite Durkin calls.  Some of these have been posted on this site before; nobody should mind seeing them again.  So large is Durkin's breadth that some calls that would make other people's lists - Cigar's Breeders Cup Classic, Barbaro's Derby, Sarava's Belmont - aren't here.  We're not trying to put together The Definitive List; this is our list.  Here's the baker's dozen we love the most.
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13.  Belmont Maiden race, July 4, 2008.  As you'll see from the first few videos, 2008 in some ways was Peak Durkin, as if he decided to basically say "to hell with it, let's just have fun."  And we're convinced that owners specifically named their horses to bait him - not racetrack announcers in general, but Durkin specifically - to give their steed a great call.  Durkin obliged the owner of Doremefasolatido by belting out a perfect scale when she took the definitive lead in the stretch.

12.  Saratoga Allowance Race, August 23, 2008.  One of Durkin's great attributes was an awareness of the exact circumstances of a race and the participants.  When Arcangues and Volponi pulled off their huge upsets in the Breeders Cup Classics, he was amply prepared to tell everyone just how shocking the result was.  Ditto for Giacomo in the 2005 Derby.  Which makes his call of this win by longshot Slambino in an innocuous allowance race at Saratoga all the better.  Listen to Durkin's voice after the finish line - it's clear that he basically forgot that the horse was even in the race, and all but screamed out "holy shit!" after reading the horse's odds.  Even though he had the best view, he was as shocked as everyone else at the track.

11.  Breeders Cup Mile, 1998.  The Breeders Cup Mile has always been one of our favorite races, but we imagine that it's an utter bear to call.  It's usually a full field running fast early and late, more often than not encompasses two turns with loads of traffic issues, and has been fodder for many upsets.  So the fact that Durkin nailed every element of this renewal in 1998, including catching Hawksley Hill at all pertinent points (look early on, he's last then wends his way through) is impressive in and of itself.  What separates this race, though, is his call and after race comment concerning Da Hoss, who won the race 2 years earlier, and came into as a decided outsider having run in a whopping one race in the 24 months since the '96 Mile.

10.  Saratoga Allowance Race, August 16, 2008.  If I'm not mistaken, the owner of Arrrr actually admitted at some point that he wanted Durkin to have fun calling this horse.  We were at Saratoga for this race and it was hilarious as it happened.  For our money though, our favorite part comes right at the end when Durkin deadpans "Feline Felon second, Stand Pat third."

9.  Belmont Stakes, 1997.  Silver Charm's bid for the Triple Crown in 1997 was the first Triple Crown opportunity since Durkin took over at NYRA, and he did a fabulous job of calling Touch Gold's minor upset.  Keeping track of where Touch Gold was at all times during Chris McCarron's flawless ride was an accomplishment.

8.  Travers Stakes, 1994.  We'd love to have Durkin tell us who were his favorite horses to watch race.  We would guess that one of them was Holy Bull, who emphatically won the Met Mile and Woodward in 1994.  But his best achievement was winning the Travers over Concern in dramatic fashion.  Durkin called several great Travers - the '97 renewal between Deputy Commander and Behrens, Coronado's Quest over Victory Gallop in '98, Colonel John winning by a nose in '08, the dead heat in '12 - but Holy Bull's was the best, and his call matched its greatness.

7.  Belmont Stakes, 2007.  Even though he called the Derby for ten years, Durkin never really had a memorable Derby call.  Most of his winners were either boringly professional (War Emblem, Super Saver) or dominating to the point where there wasn't much to say (Smarty Jones, Big Brown, Barbaro, Street Sense).  What could have been the two best calls - Monarchos and Mine That Bird - were marred by errors he made, comparing the former's time to Secretariat, and completely missing MTB until it was too late.  We're not trying to pick on Durkin, it's just a fact that his Derby calls aren't his best.

The Belmont was really his bailiwick, and this renewal is the second of several that appear on this list.  Well aware of the history behind a filly going for Todd Pletcher's first victory in a Triple Crown race, Durkin appropriately rose to the occasion.

6.  Breeders Cup Classic, 2001.  This would have merely been a "memorable race" but for Durkin's call.  His finish line pronouncement of "Tiznow wins it for America" may sound cheesy today, but if you attended the Breeders Cup at Belmont Park less than 2 months after 9/11, trust me, you didn't think it was at all.

5.  Woodward Stakes, 2009.  The style of the race was similar to Holy Bull's Travers - go to the front, run fast as hell, and hold on for dear life.  The first filly to take the historical Woodward was amazing, and Durkin's call perfectly captured the energy and moment.

We mentally have a gap between the top 4 calls and the 9 that we've already gone through.  The final four are, to us, about as good as you'll get in race calling.

4.  Breeders Cup Juvenile, 1991.  Arazi entered the 1991 Breeders Cup Juvenile as the European hotshot and was made the favorite.  He did win, but the way he did it shocked every person at Churchill Downs, none moreso than Durkin.  Durkin's line "and Arazi runs right by him" is one of the immortal calls in all of racing, almost matched by his enthusiastic declaration that Arazi was indeed a "Superstar!"  And god, this race is still amazing to watch 23 years later.

3.  Test Stakes, 2002.  You have to be a real fan or student of racing to remember this race, because the Test - a 7 furlong race at Saratoga for 3yo fillies - isn't exactly on most people's radar.  But the 2002 Test  drew Bobby Frankel's You, who came into the race having already banked 4 Grade 1 wins, and Carson Hollow, who was fast as hell.  They put on one of the best races in recent Saratoga history, and Durkin's call, especially the final 8 seconds, encapsulated how great a race this was.

2.  Belmont Stakes, 1998.  We could write 4,000 words about whether Real Quiet was overrated, underrated, or properly rated.  The point here isn't whether or not he's gotten his due, it's that he was a nostril from winning the Triple Crown.  Durkin perfectly captures the stretch drive, and his call for the final yards and when Real Quiet and Victory Gallop hit the wire together are historic.

1.  Belmont Stakes, 2004.  Every element of this call is perfect.  He sets up the race perfectly in the first two furlongs.  He keeps track of all of the horses for precisely as long as they're relevant.  He apprises everyone of the tactics that Eddington and Rock Hard Ten are using to try to beat Smarty Jones.  He notices that Birdstone is a threat long before most patrons did.  And the final three furlongs are just sublime.  The line "it's been 26 years! it's one furlong away!" is possibly our favorite call ever.  And the disappointment that rings from Durkin's voice when Birdstone wins captures exactly what every person at Belmont was feeling when Smarty Jones lost the race.

Enjoy retirement Tom.  You've earned it.

Belmont Stakes Preview Part II: The Contenders

Unless you're just being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian, if you want to go against I'll Have Another, you need a reason.  These facts are plain and undisputed:

•  I'll Have Another has run four times on a fast dirt track and has won all four times.  In the process, he's defeated almost every three year old of note.

• I'll Have Another has great tactical speed -- he doesn't need the lead, but doesn't sit far off the pace either.  This is a horse's best weapon, the ability to never be out of a race and less at the mercy of traffic than a dead closer, but not needing to control the pace.

• I'll Have Another's last speed figure (109) is only matched by Bodemeister, who isn't in the field.  Nobody else running on Saturday is that close to him speed figure-wise.

• The horse is not getting worse or slowing down; if anything, he's getting better.

So we have a real contender for the Crown.  Let's put aside ephemera as reasons the horse can lose.  What are IHA's real obstacles standing between him and the Triple Crown?

1.  Weather.  If the track is sloppy, IHA may have a problem.  His only bad start was over a sloppy track in Saratoga last summer, where he foundered in the Hopeful.  Now there's a chance he's improved since then and his loss in the Hopeful was for reasons other than the slop.  But if it's sloppy on Saturday, maybe you should look elsewhere immediately.  As of now, the forecast for the race is sunny, so this is probably a non-factor.

Doug O'Neill, looking dapper

2.  Breeding.  We think being by Flower Alley out of an Arch mare should be fine for 12 furlongs; Flower Alley won the Travers at 10 furlongs, and Arch is a blue-blood distance stallion.  But we don't have a huge sample size on Flower Alley's progeny at this point.  There's always the chance his pedigree trips him up, given that Flower Alley was by a miler (Distorted Humor).

3.  Another Horse Improves.  It's always possible that one of the other three year olds makes a huge leap forward and passes IHA's best efforts.  That would take a huge effort by one of the other horses though: other than Paynter, nobody else's best race is within 5 lengths of IHA's Preakness (and we've already discussed why we don't like Paynter's chances).  It's more likely that if IHA loses, it's because one of the other runners improved somewhat and...

4.  IHA Regresses.  The one outcome that's very unlikely is that I'll Have Another runs better in the Belmont than he did in the Preakness.  The only horses in recent memory that ran well in the Preakness and then ran better in the Belmont were Touch Gold (1997), Point Given (2001) and Afleet Alex (2005).  And two of those had trips from hell in the Preakness -- if they just ran their race, they were going to improve by default.  The question is whether IHA is on a similar arc of superiority like Point Given.

5.  Jockey Error.  Ah, the elephant in the room.  We went against IHA in the Derby because we didn't trust Mario Gutierrez, and were punished when he gave IHA a perfect ride.  Super Mario raised the stakes by giving IHA an even better ride in the Preakness, having just enough horse to beat Bodemeister under the wire.  So does that allay all our fears?

In a word, no.  There are going to be three enormous differences in the Belmont, and we think they might be IHA's undoing.

     a.  Pressure.  The Derby and Preakness were pressure packed, but let's be honest, nobody was talking about IHA before the Derby, and Bodemeister was really the talk of the Preakness.  Here, the entire weight of the racing nation is on Super Mario's back.

     b.  Belmont's unique nature.  Belmont Park is a 1 1/2 mile oval that is unlike any other dirt track in America.  Simply stated, there is no parallel, and unless you have a clearly superior horse (like Afleet Alex), an unfamiliar jockey runs the risk of moving too early or leaving too much to do late.  Even the great Calvin Borel screwed up on Mine That Bird in 2009, in no small part because he didn't get Belmont's nuances.

     c.  No Bodemeister.  Almost nobody is talking about this, but the absence of Bodemeister may hurt IHA more than it appears.  In the first two legs of the Triple Crown, the race flow was pretty clear: Bodemeister would be on the lead, and IHA had to stalk just far enough back to keep him honest and in striking distance when it came time to make a stretch run.  But without the pacesetter in the race, it's unclear how this race is going to be run.  Will IHA be on the lead?  Will Paynter show speed?  Will there be a speed duel with one of the other new shooters?  Or a lone front runner that IHA needs to worry about?  Tactically, it's going to be the toughest ride of Super Mario's career.

We have seen this exact scenario unfold before.  In 1999, all the speed horses from the prior two races were out of the Belmont, and Charismatic, rather surprisingly, wound up on the lead.  He ran 3rd.  (We're aware he was hurt -- he had nothing left at the top of the stretch anyway after getting burned out by Silverbulletday and others.)

But the most similar scenario is 2004.  In the Derby and Preakness, Stewart Elliott knew that Lion Heart was going to the lead and was unlikely to last the Derby or Preakness distance.  He sat Smarty Jones just off him in both races and blew by at the top of the stretch.  When Lion Heart (wisely) passed on the Belmont, Smarty Jones now was in unfamiliar territory because his pacesetter was gone.  Elliott put Smarty Jones on the lead early, and was run into the ground by Purge, Eddington and Rock Hard Ten.

With a better ride, Smarty Jones could have won the Triple Crown.  But his jockey was out-maneuvered and was unfamiliar with how the Belmont track plays and the pressure of going for a Triple Crown.  Come mid-stretch, Elliott was outgamed by Edgar Prado, who swooped in and stole the race with Birdstone.  And it would not be a surprise if this happened again on Saturday.

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So I'll Have Another isn't a cinch.  We acknowledge he's the most likely winner and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he's our 12th Triple Crown winner.  And at some level we're rooting for him.  But we're finding it hard to pick him.

Who can knock him off?  Well, we were all set to pick Alpha when we first started writing this post, because he's well-bred, has tactical speed, had excellent connections and was going to be a price.  Alas, he was declared from the race a week ago with an injury and won't run tomorrow.  So he's out.

Which leaves Union Rags, the second choice in the Derby.  He has a lot of obvious traits in his corner:

• Trainer Michael Matz needs no introduction -- he trained Barbaro, and is excellent at getting horses ready for a particular spot.

Michael Matz, Union Rags' trainer

• John Velazquez needs even less of an introduction, having won the Derby on Animal Kingdom, the Belmont on Rags to Riches, and a zillion other Grade I races.  If anyone knows how to navigate a long distance at Belmont Park, he does.

• More to the same point, Julian Leparoux is now not riding Union Rags.  Now we love Leparoux and think he's a great jockey.  But he had zero luck with this horse, having given him poor rides and gotten poor luck in the Florida and Kentucky Derbies.  Sometimes a horse and jockey just don't connect -- see Garret Gomez and Lookin at Lucky 2 years ago.

• His running style is perfectly conducive to winning the Belmont -- tactical speed that should keep him in the race if he gets a good trip.  He shouldn't be far off of I'll Have Another, and you know that's going to be the precise strategy that Velazquez employs.

On a more subjective level, Union Rags has the "it" factor that a lot of champions have.  When we look for the "best" performances from this class, Bodemeister's last three races and I'll Have Another's Derby and Preakness qualify.  But so does Union Rags' Champagne from last year, where he simply exploded once given some room to run:

And so did his Fountain of Youth from earlier this year, when once again, he found room and just exploded.  (Sadly, we can't embed that video.)  In short, this guy has a ton of talent and ability.  Matz admitted after the Florida Derby that the horse hadn't run his best nor was he fully geared up for the race, and we know his Kentucky Derby is a complete toss-out because of the horrible trip/ride he received.  He's definitely live and able to run well.

There are two potential negatives we see with Union Rags that give us a little pause.  First, there's the complaint that his breeding isn't conducive to a mile and a half.  But we disagree.  Sire Dixie Union may not "scream" marathoner, but he's also not a sprint/mile stallion and there's no real reason that he couldn't sire a 12 furlong winner.  Hell, Northern Afleet, a rank sprinter did.  More to the point, his damsire, Gone West, is as good a distance sire as you'll get.  We think he's no more handicapped by his breeding than anyone else in the field.

The second is that he hasn't posted a huge speed figure yet; to the point, he hasn't cracked triple digits, and even his best effort is 12 points behind IHA's Preakness.  But as we said, that's an artificial gap.  It's highly unlikely that IHA runs back to his Preakness, and given that Union Rags has had two straight trips from Hades, it's likely he'll improve off his recent efforts.  We seriously doubt that when put to the task, Union Rags won't be fast enough.

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At some level, it's also tough to ignore history.  Time and time again, the horse that was highly considered before the Derby but flopped in the first Saturday in May wins the rematch with the horse that made the Leap in the Derby.  In 1999, Lemon Drop Kid had a bunch of hype before the Derby but flopped in the Derby and Peter Pan, but ultimately rebounded in the Belmont to beat Charismatic.  Ditto for Point Given in 2001.  And Empire Maker in 2003.  And Birdstone in 2004.  And Afleet Alex in 2005.  

We don't think that I'll Have Another would be a surprise Triple Crown winner or a disgrace.  He's a really good horse that has a lot of talent and has been well managed by Doug O'Neill.  But in our gut, we think Union Rags is simply the better horse.   We think he turns the table here and posts the mild upset.

Picks:

1.  Union Rags

2.  I'll Have Another

3.  Atigun

4.  Street Life

Enjoy the race everyone!