Does Super Filly = Super Mom?

Four months ago, we questioned the hype that accompanied Rachel Alexandra, stating "her reputation is beyond her accomplishments at the moment." Four races later, including 3 victories over male horses and having beaten every single dirt horse of significance in America, Rachel Alexandra has established herself as one of the greatest female horses in American history. We hear the word "great" thrown around a lot with horses that are merely very good. This isn't the case with RA. She's truly an all-time great.

What isn't true, though is that this guarantees that her offspring will be fantastic. There's a lot of talk in the Interwebs that when she and 2007/2008 Horse of the Year Curlin mate, they will produce the next Pegasus. Take, for example, Billy Finley:

The next stop will be a farm somewhere in Kentucky and a date with Curlin. Want to get really ahead of ourselves? The foal should debut sometime during the 2013 meet at Saratoga before winning either the Spinaway or Hopeful.

Putting aside the fact his date is wrong (if she retires after 2010, as his article suggests, her first foal wouldn't hit the track until 2014), it's just wrong to think that because she's great, her foals will be great. If anything, history has proven the exact opposite. Let's take a look at how well the offspring of arguably the greatest fillies of the past 30 years have fared. We've excluded horses that died before they could breed (Go For Wand, Ruffian) and those that retired too recently to have much of a sample size (Azeri, Ashado). To make this manageable, we're only focusing on North American horses.

All Along--13 foals to race, none did anything.

Bayakoa--4 foals, none of which did anything.

Dance Smartly--This Canadien filly foaled 2 winners of the Queen's Plate and another stakes winner in 9 foals.

Genuine Risk--only successfully carried 2 foals to term, neither raced.

Heavenly Prize--9 foals to race, 2 of which were solid: Good Reward won a couple of Grade 1's on the turf and over a million dollars, while Pure Prize won almost half a million bucks. Neither horse was ever considered for an Eclipse Award, but both had their moments.

Life's Magic--14 foals, the only one who did anything was Simon Pure, who was in the money in a couple of stakes races.

Open Mind--2 foals, one of which did well in Japan.

Paseana--1 foal, who never raced.

Personal Ensign--The best of this group by a mile. She foaled My Flag, a multiple G1 winner and the 1995 BC Juvenile Fillies winner (who foaled multiple Grade 1 winner Storm Flag Flying); Miner's Mark, who won the JC Gold Cup and Traditionally, the winner of the Oaklawn Handicap. Additionally, she foaled Our Emblem, a consistent stakes horse (who sired 2002 Derby winner War Emblem) and a couple of other useful horses in Proud and True and Salute. And still, she had 3-4 foals who did little or nothing.

Princess Rooney--7 foals, one of which won over $100,000.

Serena's Song--9 foals to race with varying success. Grand Reward and Harlington earned money, but were never world beaters. Serena's Tune and Sophisticat were oddly managed and may have been better than they appeared on track.

Sky Beauty--7 foals, none of which did anything of note.

Winning Colors--10 foals to race, only two of which won over $100,000, and both of them did it in Japan, where the purses dwarf ours, making the comparison difficult.

From this group of leading ladies, we've got 96 foals, which have produced a total of 7 Grade 1 winners, i.e., a 7.3% batting average on being a very good horse. (It's probably notable that 4 of the G1 winners came from Heavenly Prize and Personal Ensign, which are regally bred fillies from the Phipps family.) At best, therefore, Rachel Alexandra is a 50/50 shot to produce a single Grade 1 winner, and there's a pretty good chance that her offspring will be anonymous. Remember, Serena's Song did great against the boys too, and hasn't produced anything that's contended for a title. What's to make us think that Rachel Alexandra is any different?

Breeders Cup XXV Conclusion

"None of [the Euros] are right for this spot." That's probably the second least accurate thing I'll write this year, still squarely behind "With apologies to the connections of Ichabad Crane, Ready’s Echo and Da’Tara, the 140th Belmont Stakes is a three-horse race." 2 minutes and Raven's Pass-Henrythenavigator exacta later, and what have we got?

A veritable mess for horse racing. Five races were on Pro Ride yesterday, and while we know Midnight Lute can handle anything you throw at him (much like Zenyatta on Friday), the other four races produced results that either probably or clearly would not have happened on conventional dirt. I'm sorry, but there's no way that the Marathon or Classic shake out the way they do with Euro winners and American dirt horses flopping on the dirt, just like Ventura won the F&M Sprint solely because it was a synthetic and she's great over that type of surface. It's a little tougher to conclude that Albertus Maximus and Midshipman were just synthetic freaks, much like Stardom Bound the day before; the first is a decent horse all around while the latter two are still improving 2yos.

But still: that's 8 synthetic races, of which somewhere between 2 and 5 were actually analogous to dirt. That's just not acceptable to the fans, and it's not going to be acceptable to the owners and trainers. The real result of this Breeders Cup isn't going to be who's Horse of the Year between Curlin and Zenyatta (note the absence of Big Brown right now from the discussion), nor is the big story going to be Midshipman's emergence or Goldikova's amazing finish or Conduit's scintillating Turf. All of these will get lost in the ether come next year behind the fact that we'll see even worse participation by East Coast horses if they keep next year's races over synthetics. And fewer dollars will be bet. (Yeah the economy's part of that, but myself and at least 4 others I know scaled back our wagering significantly. Why bet on someting that makes dirt form meaningless?)

As a final note, it's great for the connections of Raven's Pass that they won the race (and gives us a filmsy excuse to run a picture of his owner, the beautiful Princess Haya of Jordan), but I don't buy that he and Henrythenavigator are suddenly 3 times more valuable as sires. Unless you're looking for a horse to run on a synthetic surface, the winner's meaningless. Those two horses would have been thumped by Curlin had the race been over conventional dirt.

Breeders Cup Preview Part VI: The Saturday Races

Three impressions from Friday's racing:

1. Turf races are a lot more fun than synthetic races, but that's also like saying that water is wet.
2. Having actual championship races on Friday, I'm sorry, is awful. Some of us actually have jobs.
3. Zenyatta is really f--king good.

Let's take a look at the races on Saturday's card, with the races getting attention and analysis propotional to how interesting and relevant they are.

The Marathon

Since I have no interest in handicapping what's ultimately a Grade 3 race at a fluky distance, let's take my wife's fail-safe approach to handicapping. Frank Zappa is a Sixties Icon, so box them. Seems reasonable enough. For the show slot, let's take Church Service, whose connections alone make him a play at 10-1.

"Picks": 1. Zappa 2. Sixties Icon 3. Church Service

Turf Sprint

I've heard of exactly three of these horses: Salute the Count, Idiot Proof and Diabolical. Let's rank them alphabetically.

"Picks": 1. Diabolical 2. Idiot Proof 3. Salute the Count

"Dirt" Mile

Finally, a race that holds a modicum of interest to me. Be very, VERY careful of the favorites in this race. Everyone is of the opinion that this is a walkover for Well Armed, with Albertus Maximus and the ageless Surf Cat having outside shots, all at short prices. I find none of these horses particularly appealing. Well Armed has been running well against better horses, but going longer than this, and is going to need the lead, which isn't the place to be on a synthetic, generally speaking. Both he and Surf Cat are not mile specialists or even mile winners. Albertus Maximus is probably the most useful of these three, given his bad trip last out in the Goodwood, but he'll be horribly underlaid at 3-1.

Let's instead forcus on three horses coming into the race in good shape who may offer some value. Lewis Michael has never been out of the exacta at a mile, has the right running style for a race with a fair pace, and loves synthetics. My Pal Charlie is on the improve, also likes the distance, and while he's trying synthetics for the first time and has a bad post, will be 20-1. Even more intriguing is Slew's Tiznow, who's making his fourth lifetime start here but also clearly likes the distance and the surface, and may be coming late at 30-1.

Picks: 1. Lewis Michael 2. Slew's Tiznow 3. My Pal Charlie

Mile

When in doubt, look to the Euros here. Yeah, I know, they've lost 8 of the last 10 editions of this race. I'm still saying look to the Euros. Especially this year, when we've got a monster in Goldikova coming over, who sports a fantastic record at the distance and has been running competitively against Zarkava, one of the best horses this decade.

The second best horse by a lot in this race is defending champ Kip Deville, whose last race flop should be overlooked, given that Woodbine is a track that many horses don't like. It'll take a regression from Goldikova for her to lose to him, but it's not impossible. For the show slot, the usual advice is to look for a closer that likes the distance. Shakis and Bold Chieftan seem to fit the bill here, but let's take a stab with import US Ranger, who's actually got a nice record at the distance and appears to be a late runner and should be 20-1 or so.

Picks: 1. Goldikova 2. Kip Deville 3. US Ranger

Juvenile

Division leader Vineyard Haven is sitting this one out, and the speedy Charitable Man is injured. Coupling that with the Pro Ride surface, and we're left with a rather odd race where everyone is oddly bunched together in terms of accomplishments. So let's look at upside by way of breeding and connections, and lean towards late runners over speedsters.

Of the California horses, the most interesting is Midshipman, who figures to improve in his second race around two turns (a consistent Bob Baffert angle, as many have noted), and is bred to enjoy the distance. His post isn't a help, but he should be able to tuck in okay behind the dueling leaders. With him should be Euro shipper Bushranger, who's a bit of a guess if he'll like a non-turf surface, but looks a lot like other European winners: well raced, from good connections, with a strong jockey, and having accomplished something in Europe. A fun wildcard here is Pioneerof the Nile, who bid and hung in the Keeneland Futurity and was a distant third. It's the kind of race you'd expect him to build off of, and his breeding (Belmont winner Empire Maker as the sire, multiple stakes winner Star of Goshen as the dam) screams that he'll like the distance. Since Mott doesn't screw around when shipping, he's here for a reason, and is our flyer at 30-1.

Picks: 1. Midshipman 2. Pioneerof the Nile 3. Bushranger

Juvenile Turf

Why is this ungraded stakes in such a prominent place on the card? Because it's sponsored by Grey Goose, meaning it must be shown on ESPN. So Steve Crist says, anyway. Regardless, this race is being touted by some as wide-open, but the Yanks have to do a lot to catch up to Euro shipper Westphalia, who's run competitively in Grade 1 2yo turf races in Euro. Nobody here can match that, and he may be the best bet of the day.

For the other money spots, ignore the other Euros, who have accomplished and raced against nobody. Instead, look north to the 1-2 finishers of the Summer Stakes at Woodbine, Grand Adventure and Skipadate. I like them to swap the order of finish here and round out an anti-American triple. Stephen Colbert would not approve of this selection.

Picks: 1. Westphalia 2. Skipadate 3. Grand Adventure

Sprint

This used to be the best race on the card, but with the Dirt Mile, Filly Sprint and Turf Sprint, it's down to a lowly 9 horses. Boo. Let's play process of elmination. Black Seventeen's last win defines Slop Freak, Sing Baby Sing's presence is laughable, and Fatal Bullet is in over his head. Midnight Lute is the defending champion, but look like garbage in his last, and a critical look at his record basically shows that he ran a ridiculous Forego last year and merely beat the crap that constituted last year's Sprint. Fabulous Strike is quick as all hell, but he'll probably get fried in a pace duel up front and you have to wonder if his light racing schedule this year makes him eligible to regress in this race.

That was easy. Now we're down to 4 horses. Of those left, Street Boss looks the most like the winner: good local record, closing style, loves the distance, and is in top form. In Summation should get first run on Street Boss and is as honest as they come, but has the look of an "underneath" horse. We could pick the newly hot Cost of Freedom to round out the triple, but I can't see Cali horses running 1-2-3. So let's go outside the box and pick First Defence to hit the board, who looks much more plausible if you toss his last because of the sloppy surface.

Picks: 1. Sreet Boss 2. First Defence 3. In Summation

Turf

Best race on the card by a lot. Three Euros are the main attraction here (Red Rock Canyon is a pace factor only, and nobody thinks Winchester stacks up with the best of these), with Soldier of Fortune being the most hyped from the O'Brien barn. Off a 3-month layoff, he returned to run a solid third behind Zarkava (who'd be 4-5 here) in the Arc, which some are suggesting he used as a prep for this race. Maybe. It's also reasonable to just ask whether he's as good this year as he was last year. Conduit is in fine form but is cutting back two furlongs from the St. Leger, and may actually need more ground than he'll get here. That brings us to Eagle Mountain, who returned off a layoff caused by, of all things, a broken pelvis, to win at Newmarket 3 weeks ago. When his trainer pointed him to this race, the antepost odds in Europe plummeted, a la Shirocco in 2005 (who won). This is a serious racehorse bred beautifully from top-shelf connections that's a big threat here.

How about the Americans? Grand Courturier is having a big year, but all his wins came over soft going, which he won't get here. By contrast, we haven't given Dancing Forever a hard turf in 4 months, since he won the Manhattan stakes over Out of Control. His last two were putrid, but if we attribute it to the surface he ran on rather than his talent, he's got a shot to make the triples interesting. As does Out of Control. But you can't pick everyone.

Picks: 1. Eagle Mountain 2. Soldier of Fortune 3. Dancing Forever

Classic

Curlin Curlin Curlin Curlin Curlin Curlin Curlin Curlin. Wait, I used this joke yesterday? Dammit. Okay, so Curlin's the best horse in the race, and if he takes to the surface 85% as well as he does to the dirt, he'll win easily. Anything else?

Sure, let's look at the exactas/trifectas/superfectas. Three Euros give the Classic a shot this year: the O'Brien trainer pair of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator plus the underrated John Gosden's Raven's Pass. None of them are right for this spot. The 'Duke seems over the top with his best races behind him, as does Prince Henry. Raven's Pass is a pure miler who could get 9 furlongs, but even his trainer is suspect of him at a mile and a quarter. I'm inclined to ignore these three.

It's also not to early to toss Colonel John, from this execrable three year old class, Smooth Air, who's even money to finish last in this race, Champs Elysees, who's in the wrong race, and Casino Drive, who would have to have talent beyond Skip Away to be competitive here in his fourth race. Fairbanks is intriguing as "lone speed", but the Classic rarely works that way--the trifecta spots usually go to closers.

Let's instead look to some solid older pros. There are two horses who fit the bill of "synthetic demons": Go Between and Student Council. The former was a passable grass horse until Bill Mott shipped him west, where he morphed into a latter day Kelso on the plastic stuff. More intriguing is Student Council, who's won a pair of Grade 1's in his career, including 1 over a synthetic surface, and is a fan of this distance. Both will be flying late, and I slightly prefer Student Council because he should get first jump on all the closers. And included in that bunch should be Tiago, who actually ran a nice Goodwood last out and could clunk up nicely for a share at 20-1. It's these three, and not the Euros, that will round out Curlin's coup de grace.

Picks: 1. Curlin 2. Student Council 3. Tiago 4. Go Between

Breeders Cup Preview Part II: The Disintegration of the Classic

After a workout this morning where he tore off a chunk of his right front foot, Big Brown was retired to a life of sex and oats.  This means he's out of next week's Breeders Cup Classic, and that the much-desired showdown with reigning Horse of the Year Curlin won't happen.  

This sucks enough air out of the Breeders Cup to begin with, but it might be just the beginning.  All along, Curlin's connections were reticent about going to the Breeders Cup this year because it's being held at Santa Anita, where they run on an artificial surface, and not dirt.  There was chatter in the late summer that Curlin would skip the Breeders Cup altogether and point either for the Clark Handicap in late November or ship to Japan for their Dirt Cup.  However, it had appeared that Curlin's connections had come around to running in the Breeders Cup over the last couple of weeks: they opened the door after the Jockey Club Gold Cup, they shipped him to California, and they started working him out on the track.

Now, you have to ask what the point of him running in the BC Classic would be.  A victory doesn't do a helluva lot, while a loss only pokes a hole in his resume.  Since the showdown with Big Brown for Horse of the Year is off, look for Curlin's owner to announce in the next day or so that they're passing to run in Japan.  Taking his place as the favorite?  Probably Casino Drive, who was scratched the morning of the Belmont after a hoof injury, but won his comeback race yesterday.  Yes, the favorite for the race with the biggest purse in the US may be a horse making his fourth career start.

What Now, Big Brown?

Yesterday, Derby/Preakness winner Big Brown returned to the races for the first time since his Belmont debacle in New Jersey's signature race, the Haskell Invitational. Bet down to 1-5 odds, if you polled the crowd as to what would have happened during the race, you would have probably gotten two responses:

(1) Big Brown romps over a hideous field and wins by daylight.

(2) Big Brown is still injured, jinxed or feeling the effects of being off steroids and will run up the track.

Conventional wisdom, once again, was dead wrong. Big Brown was forwardly placed early, running second to the 20-1 longshot and horribly named Coal Play, trained by Nick Zito of Da'Tara fame. After 7 furlongs, Coal Play wasn't coming back to the back, he was opening up on Big Brown! Big Brown, after a fair amount of urging and whipping by jockey Kent Desormeaux, finally found the next gear in the final furlong, and eventually dug past Coal Play to win by a length and a half. (For a replay, see the Form's link here.)

The immediate reaction by myself and many others was to be unimpressed. This horse had toyed with rivals in the Derby and Preakness, and now he had trouble beating Coal Play, who had never won a stakes race? It looked like this may be his last race. However, a day later and with the benefit of knowing that he ran a 106 Gowanus Speed Figure (not great, not awful), perhaps we haven't seen the last of Big Brown after all. The question is, what next?

To figure out what comes next, it's worth asking what is to be gained by continuing to run Big Brown. It's unlikely he's going to be crowned an immortal at this point, barring him breaking track records for the rest of his (brief) career. At the same time, he's already wrapped up the Eclipse award for 3-year old colt of the year. The only prize left to shoot for is Horse of the Year, a race in which he's probably behind Curlin, and possibly behind undefeated filly Zenyatta. Okay. So how does he get to Horse of the Year?

For starters, the connections must forget about running in the Travers or any other race against 3 year olds only. There's absolutely no upside to those races, as he'll either simply re-beat the same 3yos he's dominated most of the year, or worse, lose to some longshot, leading not only losing the HOTY race but also stud value. If IEAH and Dutrow are thinking in terms of awards, they'll pass on the Travers, Pennsylvania Derby, Super Derby, etc., and focus on beating older horses.

They also should forget about returning Big Brown to the turf. I mean, what would it prove if he beat a 3yo turf horse like Tizdejavu or a turf colt like Einstein? Who cares?

No, the truth is he has to go after the two big handicap horses that are out there: defending HOTY Curlin and speedy gelding Commentator, who just won the Whitney. The latter is being pointed to September's MassCap, and Curlin's plans should be announced soon. Big Brown should point for either the MassCap or whatever Curlin runs in. That's more important than the Travers. Hell, that's more important than the Breeders Cup, which neither Curlin nor Commentator are pointing towards because of a synthetic surface. Beating Tiago and Well Armed in that race will prove nothing.

If you want to be the best, you need to beat the best. Here's to hoping that we get a race with Big Brown, Commentator and Curlin together, which would be as fun as anything we've seen recently.

Race Analysis: The Man O'War

We're taking a brief digression from fantasy baseball and diamond-related activities to take a look at this Saturday's Man O'War Stakes at Belmont Park, possibly the most fascinating race of this decade. Named after arguably the greatest horse ever (the argument is between him, Secretariat and Citation), it's a 1 3/8 mile race on the grass, which is a little weird because Man O'War never ran on the grass. The race has traditionally been run in September, during Belmont's first week after the Saratoga meet, but it was shifted to July this year to allow better spacing in the New York distance turf calendar, as the race had come up a little light in quality in recent years. And the decision to move it is paying off in spades: this year's field includes the winner of last year's Preakness, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders Cup Classic and this year's Dubai World Cup: Curlin.

Yes, all four of those races were on the dirt, and Curlin's never run on the turf before. Which is what makes the race so interesting: how is Curlin going to adapt to a new surface? Some horses like Lava Man, Barbaro and Giant's Causeway had success on both surfaces. Those are the exceptions though. Most horses have a distinct preference for either dirt or turf. But the owners and trainer of Curlin (except for the two people rotting in jail) have decided that he's already accomplished plenty on the dirt (which is true). As he's out of Smart Strike, a very good turf sire (his progeny include last year's Breeders Cup Turf winner English Channel), he has the breeding that suggests an affinity for the grass. So why not take a shot?

The plan is if he does well on Saturday, they'll ship him to France, where he'll train, run in a minor prep race in September, and go in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, the biggest turf race in the States and Europe. This isn't exactly unprecedented, but it's rare for US horses to even try the Arc; it hasn't happened in over a dozen years. Winning the Arc, in addition to winning the BC Classic and Dubai World Cup, would not only stamp him as probably the best horse in the world, it woudl put him in exalted historical company. And if he loses, so what? He can return to dirt racing and thump a hideous group of older males and 3 year old colts and break Cigar's record for career earnings. It's truly something of a free roll for the horse and his connections.

So can he do it? Let's do a breakdown of the field horse by horse:

1. Better Talk Now: The venerable nine (9!) year old gelding was the shocking winner of the 2004 Breeders Cup Turf at 27-1, and has had a pretty nice career all things considered. He's won a few G1's, ran second in the '06 Turf to Red Rocks (also in this race), and while his trip to Dubai this year was a huge disappointment, he bounced back with a very good 5th in the Manhattan, where traffic trouble kept him from a better slot. He also gets the added bonus of being owned by a group of regular guys who call themselves Bushwood Stables, and you can't root too hard against a Caddyshack reference. The problem here isn't his age or talent, it's that he's a dead closer in a race bereft of a lot of pace. Definite threat, but has some issues to contend with, especially given that he'll be around 3-1.

2. Grand Couturier: This guy's the lite version of Better Talk Now; he won last year's Sword Dancer at 16-1 by closing faster than all the others, but will be even further back in this race than BTN. Couple that with the fact that he's basically run one really strong race in his life (when he caught English Channel on an off day), and it's tough to make a case for him in the win slot.

3. Mission Approved: The New York-bred's only graded stakes win was stealing the Saranac at 34-1 on the front end in Saratoga last summer. There's not a ton of other speed in the race, and lone speed is dangerous in theory, but it's still tough to see him getting loose on the lead with enough left to hold off the top-quality horses. Disapprove.

4. True Cause: This Godolphin steed has all the looks of a hard-knocking bridesmaid, what with solid 2nds but no wins in a slew of turf routes. Indeed, at all three starts at this distance, he's finished second. Tough to argue that he'll all of a sudden jump up and beat multiple Grade 1 winners, though not the dumbest horse to include to round out your trifectas.

5. Sudan: Probably the best bred horse in the field, he won a Grade 1 last year...in Italy. He followed that up with a 10th place finish in a G3 in Sweden (I'm serious), and skipped home to an easy front-running victory in his last against lighter company in NoCal. He's actually not the worst idea for an upset play, as he'll probably run 2nd in the early going, is well-bred, took on some tough customers in Europe (ran okay against Red Rocks; lost thrice to 2006 Arc winner Rail Link), and his trainer, Bobby Frankel, has a nice rate of success on shippers. Live longshot.

6. Red Rocks: The 2006 BC Turf winner ships over from Europe for this race, and adds blinkers. It's a bit of an odd move to begin with, as while this is a Grade 1 win, what's the upside for him winning this race? My guess is that trainer Brian Meehan, who's not bad, is using this as a prep for next month's Arlington Million, a more prestigious race at Arlington Park. While this guy has been fairly okay in his two turf tries in the States, he's not a top-shelf turf horse in Europe as evidenced by his 6th place finish in the Coronation Cup last month. Still, even that race may have had its excuses: he had a tough trip, the 2nd and 3rd place finishers already came back to win, and Solider of Fortune, the winner, would be 3-5 in this race.

7. Curlin: 3-for-3 this year and winner of 5 straight, he's bred well for the turf and doesn't seem to have any distance issues, as he's won repatedly at 10 furlongs and was a good 2nd in the Belmont last year. But how's that going to translate to the turf? A lot of people don't love the fact that he's a larger colt, as they feel turf races, which are "one-run" in nature, lend themselves to smaller horses. Maybe. He's also not a horse with explosive closing speed that you see in a lot of turf horses (like Better Talk Now), he's more of a long-stretching grinder with a ton of speed. I expect that he'll try to make the lead at some point in this race (he may actually try to track the early runners pretty closely, given the lack of pace); it's a question of whether or not he can hold off the closers.

The Pick

While I expect Curlin to run well on Saturday, Red Rocks is in pretty good form and even if he's using this as a prep race for the Million, he should be able to win the race on class and experience. This doesn't mean that Curlin's turf experiment will be over--a good loss will still keep him on the path to the Arc. But for his first turf start, I think he's going to have a tough time beating a fairly fit turf specialist in Red Rocks.

1st--Red Rocks
2nd--Curlin
3rd--Sudan

Good luck and enjoy the race!

Where We Stand on the Breeders Cup

With the last round of real preps over, we're now 3 weeks away from the Extreme Racing Extravaganza known as the Breeders Cup. What's the you say? The Breeders Cup is a 2-day carnival of racing with eleven, count 'em, eleven races on varying surfaces, differing distances, and for different sexes and ages to determine championships. (It used to be 8 races, but they added three this year for kicks.) It goes without saying that we'll be doing a full preview down the road before the October 26-27 races at Monmouth Park, but where do we stand after this past weekend? Here's a quick look at the 11 races.

Classic: The pinnacle of the day, a 1 1/4 mile race on the dirt (same as the Kentucky Derby) for 3 year olds and up with a $5 million purse. Unlike in previous years, it looks like we're going to have the full compliment of important horses from this year. Derby and Preakness winners Street Sense and Curlin are pointing for this race, as is Derby runner-up Hard Spun and second-season star Any Given Saturday. (For what it's worth, these were three of the horses I loved in the Derby.) From the older set is Lawyer Ron, who is still unproven at 10 furlongs. In the fun longshot category, maybe we'll see European shipper Asiatic Boy come over and try to reverse his hideous grass form with a return to the dirt, on which he romped in Dubai back in March.

Turf: Europe's most prestigious race, the Prix d' Arc d' Triomphe, was held yesterday, won by Dylan Thomas, who may be coming stateside for the turf marathon. If he comes, he'll be 3-5 to establish himself as the best turf horse in the world. If he doesn't, then we're looking at a fun and open affair with zero appealing horses from the US and whatever else decides to make the journey across the Atlantic.

Distaff: The central race for the ladies, this race has become wide-open with the season ending injury to Rags to Riches and the defection of Nashoba's Key to the Filly & Mare Turf. The Pletcher pair of Panty Raid and Octave will get a ton of support, as with Lear's Princess, who vanquished Rags to Riches in her last, but keep your eyes open for Balance, who should relish returning to a 2-turn dirt race, Lady Joanne, winner of the prestigious Alabama, and Miss Shop, Alan Jerkens' best hope for his first BC win.

Filly & Mare Turf: The other big race on Saturday for the older fillies, this one will be centered around undefeated California sensation Nashoba's Key trying to 8-for-8 for her career, and mount an outsider's chance at the Horse of the Year crown. There's painfully little stateside that's looked close to her in terms of ability, as Wait a While has failed to follow up on her Eclipse winning three year old season and strong fillies Vacare, My Typhoon and Citronnade seem to lack the stoutness required for this 11 furlong affair. Sleeper: look to see if Flower Bowl upset winner Lahudood can make it two in a row for Kiaran McLaughlin.

Sprint: Fabulous Strike has all the fun stuff going for him--speed, record, and a trainer/connections that ESPN will love. So why am I dubious of him? Maybe it's because Greg's Gold in California should've won his race yesterday, or Mach Ride is a pair of good gate breaks from a fantastic year. A messy affair without a standout. And that's partially because...

Dirt Mile: ...the Breeders Cup has added a one-mile dirt race, which is going to siphon off horses like High Finance, Midnight Lute and Discreet Cat, who would otherwise try to get 6 furlongs, and instead are in this slightly longer distance. They'll get 80% of the action, but you're crazy if you overlook the rapidly improving Daaher. Speaking of things that are killing the BC Sprint, we have....

Filly Sprint: ...the second new Breeders Cup race, which is a sprint only for the gals. If Dream Rush and La Traviata run here, it'll be the most interesting duel of the day, but if the latter goes to fight the boys (for twice the dough), it'll take a rocket up Wild Gams' ass to get her to the front.

Mile: Always the most indecipherable race of the day, this edition will have the once-defeated Shakespeare at a short price against a ton of interesting Euros and Americans. Keep your eye on Shakis, who may improve off his tough start at Keeneland, a la Miesque's Approval last year.

Juvenile: We've failed to have a single 2yo colt look remotely impressive this year on the dirt. This race looks boring.

Juvenile Fillies: The only 2yo gal that's looked good so far has been Indian Blessing, and she's overrated. This race looks even more boring. Which leaves us with...

Juvenile Turf: A fascinating third new race for this year, which pits the youngins' on the grass, an area that gets absolutely no attention in the United States. Hell, if they had this race 2 years ago, Barbaro would have been the favorite. The lack of anything resembling prep races or a cohesive schedule in this field is going to lead to an eclectic field of Euros (Rio de Plata?), dirt converts (The Leopard) and blowout maiden winners (Prussian). Nobody knows what the hell to do with this race. Which probably makes it the best betting competition of the weekend.

We'll have a fuller set of previews in 2 weeks, but suffice to say, analyzing 125 horses this year ain't gonna be easy. Get your pencils and bankrolls ready.

Why This Year's Belmont is Boring

If you haven't heard yet (i.e., if you're not one of horse racing's 34 fans that knows what a blog is), Street Sense, the Derby winner, is passing on the third jewel of the Triple Crown, next Saturday's Belmont Stakes. Is he hurt? Nope. Is he tired? Also nope. So what's the reason? The connections feel like waiting for the Travers, a race in August.

[Trainer Carl] Nafzger said Street Sense was in good shape physically. He worked an easy half-mile at Churchill Downs on Wednesday.

"He's ready to go," Nafzger said. "I'd never use that as an excuse."

By stopping now, Nafzger said he believes he can get Street Sense back to the races quicker this summer than if he were to go to the Belmont.

"He could give 110 percent in the Belmont, but could he come back and give 110 percent in the Travers, and still be on a campaign to give 110 percent in the Breeders' Cup?" Nafzger said. "It's like a running back. You need some time off. You get tired of putting pads on every day and running wind sprints.

Is this the right decision? I'm not going to go all Bill Finley (the Steve Rushin of racing) on you and lament the fact that the Belmont's now "just another race" for the general public. The idea that the Curlin-Street Sense "rivalry" was going to bump up attendance in Elmont by 30,000 and 3 Nielsen points is insane--if there's no Triple Crown on the line, the casual fan's just not going to be interested, and it'll get the usual perfunctory ratings. And if it's a nice day, the locals will show up, no matter who's running in the big race. The notion that this is putting racing behind the 8-ball is totally unfounded; racing is shooting itself in the foot about 390 other ways ahead of Carl Nafzger's decision.

No, the real question is whether or not Nafzger is doing good by his horse. Steve Crist makes an excellent case in the Daily Racing Form that Nafzger knows from his earlier experiences with Unbridled how to leave something in the tank for the big races later in the year, and Street Sense will have to be at his peak to beat Invasor, who's arguably the best older horse we've seen in the U.S. since Silver Charm. Maybe it's a good idea to skip an anachronistically long race in June to freshen up your horse and point for the fall classics, right?

Sound as this logic seems, I have to disagree. If you've got a healthy horse here and now, and there's a historic race to run...you run him, and take on all challengers. Defeating Curlin in the Belmont would almost wrap up the division title for Street Sense, at which time he can rest with a 2-prep comeback for the Breeders Cup. To forego a spot where he'd be a prohibitive favorite to try to win the Travers is ludicrous; the Travers is the oldest race in America, and still means something if you're a Saratoga person, but the Belmont is bigger--it's the Triple Crown! Mr. Carl, I think you're doing the wrong thing here. And in the process, you've killed the Belmont from a wagering standpoint, which frankly, is more inexcusable than anything else.

So what's left for next Saturday? Well, Curlin is running, and will be a stiff favorite to make it two in a row for the classics and to take a huge lead in the race for the prestigious Eclipse Award. Hard Spun's coming back in what may be his final race before his stud plans are finalized, but it's hard to see this out of control speedball gutting it out for an additional quarter of a mile. Tiago and I'mawildandcrazyguy come back after skipping the Preakness leg, both stone closers in a race that appears to be bereft of speed. Todd Pletcher's either going to run his boy (Circular Quay) or his girl (Rags to Riches) and either will be immensely overbet relative to their chances in the race. That leaves the improving Slew's Tizzy as an interesting longshot, and as of now, you have to think the Curlin-Slew's Tizzy exacta may be the way to go.

Of course, there's a great chance some trainers will see a $1 million purse up for grabs, realize you get $100k for running third, and enter some hopeless longshots for kicks anyway. But barring someone intrguing like Sightseeing, Chelokee or Street Magician being pointed for the race at the eleventh hour, suffice to say that while the Belmont is still a classic race, it'll be the least interesting race on the day at Belmont. Too bad.

Preakness Preview

Saturday brings us the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown, brought to you from Pimlico Race Course in Maryland. A couple of key differences between the two races: while the Derby was 1 1/4 miles, the Preakness shortens up to 1 3/16 miles, thanks to the goofy configuration of Pimlico. Additionally, while they get a good crowd at the Preakness (100,000+), it's not quite as much a madhouse as the Derby. Unless you're in the infield, where you'll see more unflattering topless UM co-eds than you ever knew existed.

As the middle leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness has always been something of the ugly stepchild of the 3 year old trilogy. It's not at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles, and isn't the "Test of Champions", it's instead more analogous to a pit stop on the way from horse capital Kentucky to New York. It obviously doesn't get as strong a field as the Derby (though few races do), and while it's more formful as a result of the smaller fields, it's also a bit less exciting in that you're unlikely to see a bomb win the race like Giacomo or Charismatic. And even winning the race, while a tremendous accomplishment, borders on anticlimactic--either you've foiled a Triple Crown bid, or you've cleared a necessary hurdle en route to the real test in the Belmont.

Further making the Preakness something of the Fredo Corleone of the Triple Crown family is the fact that trainers now routinely skip the race to point for the Belmont, rather than run back on 2 weeks rest after the Derby. Indeed, to some level, you have to ask whether the Preakness has become a racing anachronism by its goofy timing. This was once heresy, as horses used to never win the Belmont without running in the Preakness or another horse within 2-3 weeks of the Belmont. But we've seen this broken numerous times in recent years, with Commendable, Empire Maker, Birdstone and Jazil all pulling the trick of skipping the Preakness and pointing for the Belmont victoriously. By contrast, this century we've only seen Point Given and Afleet Alex pull the Preakness-Belmont double after losing the Derby. (This fact is also reflected in the fact we've seen Bernardini and Red Bullet win the Preakness without competing in the Derby, something that hadn't occurred since Tank's Prospect in 1983.) As a result, instead of seeing races full of Derby horses taking another shot, we've gotten multiple incarnations of second-string 3 year olds taking on the leviathans from the Derby, with blow-out results--ignoring the Barbaro fiasco last year, the last 3 Preaknesses were all romps.

Then, of course, there's the 800 pound gorilla in the room, namely, the dying financial viability of Maryland racing in general and Pimlico specifically, which is always the subject of a cranky article by Plagarizing Andy Beyer every Preakness week. Pimlico, on its best day, is one of the ugliest sports facilities known to mankind, below the level of Olympic Stadium and a bowling alley in Camden. It's a money pit to the state 364 days of the year, with Preakness day and its 100,000 denizens being the only saving grace to the state's racing year. Compounding the problem is that while all the neighboring states (Delaware, West Virginia, and now Pennsylvania) have slot machines churning money that goes right back into purses, and thus gets the better horses and fuller fields, Maryland's stymied in a non-slots world, a death sentence if you're a track outside of New York, Kentucky and Florida. With the track decaying, and a once proud racing state now approaching financial brinkmanship at the track, there have been rumors the Preakness may get moved to somewhere else in the future. I'll believe it when I see it (i.e., when Magna racing cuts its losses in Maryland), but to say it's a precarious position is putting it nicely.

Regardless, we're confronted with the fact that Street Sense is two victories away from the Triple Crown. Who's in this race and what are their chances? Let's go in reverse order of preference, once again.

We're Just Happy to Be Here

#9: Mint Slewlep. On the Preakness undercard in 1999, a depressed and suicidal patron jumped onto the racetrack and stood in the path of Artax on the hope that he'd mow him down. As a result, Artax pulled up and lost the race to Yes It's True. We'll need about a dozen drunken Terrapins or the Stanford band to pull off a similar stunt here to give this guy a shot.

#8: Xchanger. The upside on this guy is that he's won on the track, with a win in the Federico Tesio 4 weeks ago, which has produced the occasional board hitter like Magic Weisner (2002) and the aforementioned Tank's Prospect. Unfortunately, it's also produced execrable commodities like Malibu Moonshine and Ah Day. This guy looks like a pure pace factor (in a race laden with early speed) and really isn't that fast, and you have to expect he'll be running in the wrong direction by the far turn.

#7: Flying First Class. You want to like this horse because he's popped a triple digit Gowanus Speed Figure and has D. Wayne Lukas in his corner. Then you back up and realize that he's also early speed in a race full of front runners, Lukas hasn't done shit in years, and that he's run nothing shy of horribly in both his route races. This really is a poor spot for him to run, he should be sprinting. Can we future him to win the King's Bishop?

Exotics Fodder, Potentially

#6: King of the Roxy. The second horse Todd Pletcher has ever run in the Preakness, with the first being the plodder Impeachment in 2000, who clunked up for a distant third. He's going to get a ton of action because of the Pletcher factor and because he ran 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, but he's also really a sprinter trying to sneak off with a route race. It's very VERY telling that Pletcher & Team Valor, both players who spot their horses smartly yet aggressively gave the Derby absolutely no consideration either before or after the Santa Anita Derby, and instead are trying to steal a consolation prize in a weaker race. He'll be horrendously underlaid, and while he could hit 3rd if the race falls apart, I don't believe he's remotely relevant in this race.

#5: C P West. Named for Central Park West, Nick Zito sat out this year's Derby to bring the Withers runner-up to this spot instead, and somewhat wisely so, as this guy hasn't had enough of a 3yo campaign to have made him Derby ready. He was a hyped two-year old that still hasn't developed, but he's very VERY eligible to improve in his third start of the year. He also exits the Withers, which has produced Bernardini (winner, 2006) and Scrappy T (runner-up, 2005) in the last couple of years. Can't see him winning. Can see him improving for a trifecta finish.

The Sucker Horse

#4: Hard Spun. He gets ranked above the others because unlike those hopeless causes, he actually has a shot to win this race, but no, I'm not coming within 30 miles of him. I thank him and Larry Jones for running well in the Derby and giving me the exacta, but this is where I bid them adieu. I'm not the first person to notice this parallel, but I draw you back to 2003 and 2004, where good speed horses in Peace Rules and Lion Hearted, respectively, ran great 3rds and 2nds in the Derby, and everyone thought the cut-back in distance would help them. Right? Nope. Both of them were nowhere to be found when the finish line arrived, finishing over a dozen lengths behind the winners, not to mention their defeats to luminaries such as Scrimshaw and Eddington. History repeats itself here; this guy runs with the longshots up front, then begins to back up at the top of the turn and finishes well out of the money. The good news? He'll be about 3-1 with everyone and their brother playing the "shortening up" angle and operating under the misguided notion that Pimlico favors front runners (it doesn't), putting a ton of free money in the pot for the rest of us.

Actual Contenders

#3: Street Sense. Um....didn't this guy just win the Derby? Well, yes. There's obviously a ton to like, not the least of which is his breeding, his speed, and the fact he's been expertly trained to date. Yet, I can't get past the sneaking suspicion that this is the racing equivalent of a "trap game" for this horse. Putting aside the large reservations that I have that he's clearly a Churchill Downs freak (which may or may not translate elsewhere) and that he got a clean and ground-saving trip in the Derby, there are two bigger, nagging issues here. First, Carl Nafzger has freely admitted that he single-mindedly prepared Street Sense for the Derby, and gave essentially no thought whatsoever to what came after. I don't love that; I can't fault Nafzger for pointing for Derby immortality, but it's worth noting that Unbridled in 1990 flopped in the Preakness after this stellar Derby. Second, and more importantly, something that hasn't been much discussed is the distinct possibility that there was a severe rail bias on Derby Day. Consider that not only did Street Sense rally up the rail, but also that Hard Spun held clear after torrid fractions and longshot Sedgefield ran a huge race while also taking the golden rail. Maybe the three of them were riding a bias to the nth degree (something the earlier dirt races don't disprove). If so, he's a prime candidate to regress.

I freely admit that I play the contrarian more often than not in picking races, but this is a time where I think it's somewhat justified. He's a hideous play at even money, and while he may put a huge effort up on Saturday, he won't be my pick to repeat. A much more interesting idea, though, is...

#2: Circular Quay. I'm borderline shocked that this horse is running in the Preakness, as he & King of the Roxy will be the 2nd and 3rd horses Pletcher has saddled in this race, after the immortal Impeachment clunked up for third in 2000. Pletcher generally doesn't love to run back horses on short rest (not the case with King of the Roxy, who's been dormant for 6 weeks), which makes the idea of running this guy even more intriguing, as clearly blood is smelled by the nation's best trainer. Let's also look at the fact that this guy ran fairly well off an 8-week layoff in the Derby, when he changed paths about 7 times and took the overland route to a better-than-it-looked 6th place finish. Now, it'd be folly to argue that the Derby was a prep for the Preakness, but it certainly may have been a tightener for a horse that needs it. The downside? I still don't love that this horse hasn't had any success at 1 1/8 miles, and his best stakes win was a 7 furlong sprint at Saratoga last year. But the pace looks to be strong, and he'll be flying late. Prime contender, to say the least.

The Winner

#1: Curlin. Unlike Circular Quay and to some degree Street Sense, I don't think we've seen this horse's best, and his 3rd place finish in the Derby (which I called extremely unlikely, proving my accumen) was a very, very good effort for a horse making his 4th start. I like him to improve even more here, sitting a better trip than he did last out (when his post hurt him tremendously) off a torrid pace and getting first run on the closers, who will have to wear him down. Like Circular Quay, I also think the Derby was a great effort to get some fitness into the horse; witness the fact he's only had a slow maintenence work since then to keep him on his toes. This is the race he moves forward and establishes himself as the co-top horse of the class with Street Sense.

The Picks

1st: Curlin
2nd: Circular Quay
3rd: Street Sense
4th: C P West

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the races!