Monday, November 26, 2007

P, P, Pantsed











Chaminade University is a D-2 Catholic college located amidst the palm trees of Honolulu, Hawaii. Athletically, the school is best known for hosting an annual preseason basketball tournament at which it is (almost) perennially waxed by vacationing D-1 squads. Howard University is a historically black college located amidst the pavements of Washington, DC. The school has not made the NCAA tournament since 1992, and has never won a tournament game. Besides a lack of hoops pedigree, what do the two schools have in common? .

Well for one, recent men's basketball victories over Princeton and Penn, the two programs that used to be the cream of the crop in Ivy League basketball. Between them, the two P's have 46 NCAA tournament appearances, 2 Final Four appearances, and 2 Hall of Fame coaches (Pete Carrill and Chuck Daly).
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At Right: Penn's Mascot Displays Wildly Misplaced Optimism at the '79 Final Four

For years, we here at the GRBG have awarded the honorary title of "Nation's Finest Truly Amateur Basketball Team" to that year's champion of the Ivy League. The honorific is based on the Ivy's status as the only D-1 conference not to offer athletic scholarships for basketball, meaning that the players don't even receive in-kind compensation (in the form of a free education) in return for their efforts. Historically, though, that handicap didn't stop Penn and Princeton from being competitive with scholarship schools.

At Left: Senator Backcut
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This year? Not so much. Chaminade's victory over Princeton dropped the Tigers below .500, while simultaneously edging Chaminade's all-time record in its own tournament up to a cool 5-65. Penn has managed only 2 wins thus far, and even those came against the hazing-addled plebes of Navy and The Citadel.

Both programs began falling apart with the departures of longtime coaches (Fran Dunphy at Penn and either Carrill or Bill Carmody at Princeton, depending on how you measure). The new coaches were either unable to attract or unable to retain the sort of mid-level talent that traditionally kept the programs afloat. What's odd about the almost simultaneous collapses of the two programs is that their recruiting bases traditionally did not overlap much: Princeton went after Hoosiers-esque suburban players who fit the vaunted Princeton motion offense; Penn targeted city kids and played a freer-flowing brand of ball.

Regardless, as academic standards and tuition costs have gone up at the Ivies, their former recruits are heading off to Gonzaga, or Bucknell, or any of a number of other similar D-1 liberal arts colleges willing to foot the bill for a full ride. While it's tough to argue with the economics behind the shift, it is a little sad to see Ivy hoops head for the same fate as Ivy football. After all, while U.S News and World Report rankings are nice, a few AP Poll votes would be welcome as well.

Friday, November 23, 2007

Jerry Jones, the Fool


Sadly, I am not talented enough a writer to one-up Kissing Suzy Kolber's fantastic Wade and Jerry series. But I am cognizant enough of bullshit to recognize a load of hot air when I see it. Regarding the NFL Network contretemps with cable TV, Messr. Jones had the following to say:

"I am frustrated that we've got literally several million fans that won't get to see that game because Time Warner won't be carrying it," Jones said in the locker room after the Cowboys' 34-3 victory over the New York Jets. "I'm hot about that. I hope those fans will go to AT&T satellite or go over to a competing cable company."

That sounds just dandy Jerry.....until you look at the facts realistically. That game and 7 others (including last night's snoozer between Indy and Atlanta) are on the NFL Network because you and your compatriots' greedy asses decided to reach for a non-existant pot of gold in a new TV station. And you tried to quintuple your revenues by putting these games on this stupid station by using it as leverage not only against cable carriers, but also ESPN, CBS, NBC and Fox. The system worked perfectly fine beforehand with few or no extra games on Thursday or Saturday night. And something tells me you could have sold the extra 8 games to ESPN or some other carrier for a hefty ransom if you hadn't been so indignant on promoting a station that has zero programming of interest outside of the NFL Draft, and frankly, never will. (I mean seriously--have you ever tried to watch programming on any station specific to one sport or league? The best one is TVG simply because you can bet on everything on its station 24/7.)

In other words, you have precisely thirty-two people to be frustrated with: yourself and your fellow owners. So shut the fuck up.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Five Oddities in NL MVP Voting


Joe Sheehan's already done a bang-up job in analyzing why Jimmy Rollins shouldn't have won the NL MVP (for roughly the same reasons Justin Morneau shouldn't have won last year), though I don't really agree with his conclusions---the defense a first baseman has to offer is pretty much whateverific, and Chase Utley, to me, was the best player in the NL all year when healthy. But enough about the winners. I use this platform to note five oddities from the voting results, which can be found here:

(1) All of those carping about Ryan Braun beating out Troy Tulowitzki for Rookie of the Year (and I'm looking at.....you, Mr. Neyer) can take solace in the fact that somehow, despite the exact same people voting for both awards, Mr. Troy finished a good 11 points ahead of Braun in the MVP voting. Most of the 11-point differential between the two stems from a rogue 3rd place vote for TT, presumably from someone voting with Dan O'Dowd in the room.

(2) I'd like to find the voter who put Prince Fielder 8th and shake his hand. He's the only person to put him below 4th, and he's the only person that's right.

(3) I watched Carlos Beltran play the entire year. Check that---I watched Carlos Beltran saunter about like an injured elephant for 5 months, and then start to play after the Feast of the Assumption. He was a waste of money for 3/4 of the year. So of course, he merits a pair of 8th place votes. Good job of paying attention, lads.

(4) Is Brandon Phillips the first player ever to get the only MVP votes from his team when he wasn't the most valuable player on his team? Outside of steals and shortness, there isn't a category where Adam Dunn didn't whup his ass. Phillips isn't awful, but please, tell me his stats are different from Chris Sabo with speed. Or on speed for that matter.

(5) And lastly, and most hilariously, there's the person who voted Carlos Marmol for a 10th place vote. This is even more laughable than when the Hall of Fame ballot comes out and players like Gary Gaetti and Scot Sanderson are nominated. I realize that VORP doesn't tell everything, and I'm going to piss off Jon Heyman by using numbers, but Marmol's VORP was squarely between Greg Maddux and John Maine for NL pitchers, and roughly equivalent to that of Fat Squirrel for position players, and we already know my feelings on him. I have to think the guy who made this vote lost a bet.

This lends itself to an obvious question: why do we allow voters 10 spots on the MVP ballot? Has someone ever won because of a 9th or 10th place vote? (Maybe Pudge?) Why not just give them 3 or 5 and be done with it?

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

A Brief Note of Caution

So, the Celtics have jumped out of the gate at 6-0, with an absolutely goofy +16.3 per-game average point differential, reminding Hub hoops fans of the good old days when these kind of starts were taken almost for granted. Fans are returning in droves to the Whatever It's Called Now Garden/Center/Arena to watch the new Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jesus Shuttlesworth slap around the weaker children of the Eastern Conference. All is sunshine and rainbows and fluffy puppy heads on tiny kitten bodies. But . . .

What we haven't seen mentioned yet in many places is that each of the Big Three are (1) on the wrong side of 30, and (2) currently above their career averages in terms of minutes per game:

----------------Age--------Career Average---------Season to Date-------
Garnett:-------31-----------38.3 min/g-------------39.7 min/g----------
Pierce:---------30-----------37.8 min/g-------------38.8 min/g--------
Allen:----------32-----------37.5 min/g-------------40.5 min/g----------

I can see the rationale behind working these guys harder than usual early on--this is the time of year to build on-court familiarity, and to rebuild the public and internal perception of the C's as a franchise. Plus, the Sox and Pats have pretty well monopolized the market over the past few years, so a little buzz would be good for everyone involved with the C's.

But somebody in Boston needs to be taking the longer view, which is that the team isn't going to do anything in the spring or summer unless all three of these guys are healthy and rested. Doc Rivers needs to stop setting the rotation in the way that maximizes the chances of him saving his own behind in the short term, and move to one that gives the C's a chance to win during the probably two-year window that they have with these three near their peaks.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

The 2008 Dodgers

With all due respect to the Bronx Bombers, the team this offseason that's the most interesting and has the most options are Joe Torre's newest employers, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let's cut to the chase, and take a quick look at how the Dodgers' roster stands as we enter free agency:

C: Russell Martin
1B: James Loney, Nomar Garciaparra
2B: Jeff Kent, Tony Abreu
SS: Rafael Furcal, Wilson Valdez
3B: Andrew LaRoche
OF: Juan Pierre, Jason Repko, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp
SP: Jason Schmidt, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Esteban Loaiza, Mark Hendrickson
RP: Takaishi Saito, Chad Billingsley, Jonathon Broxton, Scott Proctor, Joe Beimel, Yhency Brazoban

The guys whose names are in red exhibit a valuable quality: they have contracts that are up after 2008. Those in purple are close: their contracts are up in 2008, but the club retains an option for them in '09, and in the case of Penny, there's zero chance they won't exercise it at a relatively paltry $9 million, unless his arm falls off. As for the rest of the players, with the exception of the wildly overpaid Pierre and Schmidt, the rest are young and cheap---none slated to make over $3 million.

This, as constituted, is not a terrible roster. Hell, you could arguing that just getting rid of Grady Little makes them the best team in the division. If the pitching stays healthy (treeeemendous "if"), it's a solid 4 upfront, and Billingsley really out to occupy the 5th slot. And the pen of Saito and some hard-throwers doesn't suck either, outside of the fact that Scott Proctor has undoubtedly switched to a PPO plan with Torre becoming his manager once again. The infield's old in spots, but has a bunch of young studs in Loney, Martin and LaRoche, and really, the only problem is the outfield, which is awful, Kemp's potential excepted.

And this is where the contract situation kicks in, because it's noteworthy that:

(1) Even assuming some decent arbitration awards, the Dodgers have approximately $90 million in obligations for next year, some $15 million below what they spent last year.

(2) HALF of the $90 million that's owed now is coming off the books after 2008. This team has a ton of money it can spend if it defers payments just by a year.

Which makes the availability of Alex Rodriguez as a free agent interesting....but less interesting than the other players that are available. Yes, Rodriguez would help this squad--who wouldn't want a guy that can put up a huge OPS and 45 HRs each year? (The Yanks, apparently.) But he's not an answer for a team that wants to compete for the next 3-6 years and is looking at a somewhat loaded Arizona team in its own division. He'd take up the entire payroll spot that's opened up for them, and would be blocking LaRoche in the process, and would do nothing to solve their OF problems.

Instead, this team should look to the more intriguing players that are available via the trade market: Johan Santana and Miguel Cabrera. Both are young. Both are studs. And both would provide short- and long-term answers to all their issues on both sides of the ball. Best of all, Ned Colletti hates youngsters, and has a ton of prospects to trade for them both. I have to think that some package of LaRoche, Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Billingsley, Broxton and Loney could get both of these players. And in the process, they would cost less than A-Rod alone for 2008, allowing the team to sign some useful filler players (Aaron Rowand? Brad Wilkerson?), and field a neat squad of:

C: Martin
1B: Wilkerson, Garciaparra
2B: Abreu, Kent
SS: Furcal, Valdez
3B: Cabrera
OF: Pierre, Rowand, Ethier
SP: Santana, Penny, Schmidt, Lowe, Loaiza
RP: Saito, Brazoban, Proctor, Hendrickson and 3 other dudes

Now THAT would be a fun team. Let's see if Colletti sticks to his guns of dealing off talented prospects, but instead of getting execrable commodities like Hendrickson, instead uses them this time for in-their-prime stars that can make this team relevant.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

The Best Sixth Round Ever?

There's an article in Saturday's New York Times concerning Tom Brady, who, as we well know, was pick #199 in the 2000 draft, and was the 7th quarterback taken. Which obviously leads to the question: who were the other humps taken before him? Let's examine the QBs taken that draft:

#18: Chad Pennington, NY Jets. You can't say this was a bad pick, as he's had a decent career with Gang Green, it just pales in comparison to what came later.

#65: Giovanni Carmazzi, San Fran. Oops. Lesson learned: only draft Hofstra WR's.

#75: Chris Redman, Baltimore Ravens. This pick was so similar to Browning Nagle (getting thumped, left) from the outset, it's pretty funny.

#163: Tee Martin, Pittsburgh Steelers. The Troy Smith of 2000.

#168: Marc Bulger, New Orleans Saints. This was a tremendous pick obviously, though he never took a snap for the team that drafted him. Great job giving him away for a box of donuts, 'Aints.

#183: Spergeon Wynn, Cleveland Browns. The only QB that could have given Tim Couch job security.

#199: Tom Brady, New England Patriots. No explanation necessary.

After Brady: Tom Husak (Washington); JaJuan Seider (San Diego); Tim Rattay (San Fran); Jarious Jackson (Denver); Joe Not Joey Hamilton (Tampa Bay). Outside of Rattay, I'm not sure if there was a single snap taken by any of these guys in the NFL, though Jackson's a fricking stud for British Columbia in the Canadian Football League.

Suffice to say this was a decent QB class: three bonafide starters, including one Hall of Famer and one Pro Bowler in the mix. But what's more amazing is to just look at that sixth round in general, it's almost as if the entire league slept through the middle portion of the draft and woke up after a pizza break Sunday afternoon. Let's look at some of the highlights from that round:
  • Mark Bulger & Tom Brady---See above.
  • Adaleius Thomas---This guy alone would be a great find in this round, let alone with the two big QB's.
  • Neil Rackers---A Pro Bowl kicker, and a machine from inside 40 yards, whatever the hell that's worth.
  • Mike Anderson---A useful-to-good RB for Denver until Shanahan gave up on him for no reason whatsoever. Seriously, what the hell goes on in the RB section of that locker room? Do you just walk in knowing you have a half-life of 8 games?
  • Robaire Smith---A real nice defensive player that did a ton for Tennessee until leaving this year.
  • Dhani Jones---In addition to being a fair linebacker, he founded a company that sells bow ties. Awesome.
My somewhat cursory investigation into the post-1996 drafts has shown NO sixth rounds rivals this one. Only one other has more than 2 Pro Bowlers, and that one includes David Tyree, who sucks. Pretty amazing at the end of the day. Lesson---never stop paying attention, GM's, and scout those late rounds out well.

Thursday, November 1, 2007

The Curse of Donnie Baseball

I'm not the first to point this out, but let's note that Don Mattingly is officially a curse wherever the hell he goes, especially when it comes to a team's post-season fortunes. Nuts? Let's take a brief chronological tour.

1982-1994: Mattingly is a productive member of the Yankees. Not coincidentally, they fail to make the playoffs a single time, though the '94 strike probably didn't help.

1995: The Yankees make the playoffs for the first time, despite the presence of Mattingly, and do so thanks to the improbable events of Scott Kamineicki throwing a 1-run complete game on the next-to-last day of the year, one day after Pat Kelly hits the game winning home run to put them in the wildcard lead. The baseball gods, too busy fucking with the fortunes of the Angels, right the ship by torturing the Yanks in a 5-game loss to the M's.

1996: Ridden out of town on a rail, Mattingly contemplates going to Japan, and instead retires to Indiana. The Yanks win the World Series for the first time in 18 years.

1997: Donnie Baseball returns to have his number retired. Shoulda stayed away. Yanks drop to the Indians in the Wild Card round, in the process making Jaret Wright a postseason hero.

1998-2003: Mattingly's exile continues. During this six-year span, the Yankees make the World Series 5 times, winning three of them, and coming ooooooh so close in 2001.

2004-2007: The Yankees bring in Mattingly as their hitting coach, for no apparent reason. Despite having an enormous payroll and the best player in baseball, the best they can muster is a wild card round win against a crappy Twins squad, after which they embark on the biggest collapse in baseball history, and fail to get out of the first round 3 straight years.

While I can't say that Hank and Hal have thought this out that carefully, you have to think this is part of the reason Girardi got tabbed for the managerial post. But now the Dodgers are thinking of bringing him in with Torre. Word to the wise Mr. McCourt: stay away. Stay far, far away.