Breeders Cup 2008 Preview Part I: Unchanging the Changes

This year celebrates the 25th anniversary of the Breeders Cup, popularly known as thoroughbred racing's championships. For exactly 23 of those years, the Breeders Cup was a well-functioning enterprise that offered a great day of racing with de minimus controversy or issues. In the past two years, however, the braintrust in charge of Breeders Cup Day has tried to remake something that was perfectly fine by making four decisions that have elicited a fair amount of controversy in horse racing circles:

(1) 3 new races were added in 2007 and run for the first time on the Friday before the main event: the Dirt Mile, the Juvenile Turf and the Filly & Mare Sprint. This winter, the BC committee added three more races: the Turf Sprint, the Marathon, and the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

(2) This year's races were awarded to Santa Anita, a track that has a non-dirt synthetic surface that's currently untested.

(3) They awarded next year's races to Santa Anita once again, despite having never gone back-to-back at the same locale and the same synthetic issues existing.

(4) The committee jumbled up the now fourteen races, and created a "Ladies' Day" card on Friday with all five races that feature runners of the fairer sex, and put the rest on the Saturday card.

We'll get to the issues raised by the synthetic track and California locale in the coming previews. For now though, I'd like to focus on the Breeders Cup decision to add six more races and to jumble them oddly into two days. This has already been skewered in various locations, but it's worth taking a step back and asking two questions: what's the point of Breeders Cup weekend, and what's the best way of achieving that goal while maximizing everyone's enjoyment?

The Function of the Breeders Cup

When formed in 1984, the Breeders Cup consisted of seven races, six of which directly tied to an Eclipse Award championship (Classic: Older male/3yo male; Distaff: Older female/3yo female; Turf: Male Turf; Sprint: Sprint; Juvenile Fillies: 2yo filly; Juvenile: 2yo colt), and a seventh (the Mile) that was a staple of international turf racing. An eighth race (the Filly and Mare Turf) was added in 1999 to fill in the "hole" for female turfers that was missing from the card. With the addition of this race, a card of 8 Grade I races was created, all of which corresponded directly with a championship (there's nothing stopping a Mile winner from winning the Eclipse for a turf horse, it just doesn't happen that often). The races became new endpoints for the best in America and some stables in Europe and Dubai, and represented the best racing the best.

Five of the six new races, however, are not championship races. While the Filly & Mare Sprint does correlate with a new Eclipse award for girl sprinters, the other races have no bearing on any championship. This isn't to say they're without merit. The areas that they encompass (turf sprints, juvenile grass racing, longer routes, middle distances) are areas that are either growing or common parts of the modern game. They're perfectly fine to be part of the Breeders Cup experience. However, they do not belong on the main racing card. They're strictly undercard material, and should all be on Friday.

And as undercard material, they have to be treated as such, which means they can't detract from the 8 major races that made up the traditional Saturday card. This brings us to the second big issue with the shift: the new races diluting the card and appeal from the Big Eight. A huge part of the appeal of the Breeders Cup card is the diversity of the horses that enter the big races. For example, the Sprint traditionally gets horses that are 7 furlong or mile specialists trying to shorten up, fillies taking on the boys for the first time and Euro turf demons. Sometimes this works (Gulch, Silver Train), sometimes it doesn't (Forestry, Wild Rush). The Mile frequently got turf horses shortening from 9 or 10 furlongs or dirt horses trying the turf, not to mention shippers from all over. Adding the Dirt Mile and F&M Sprint detracts from all of these fields. If you're the owner of a female turf horse, why bother taking on the males when there's a $1 million purse against only your own sex? And if you're a bettor and a fan, do you really want these second-tier races reducing the fun and betting opportunities abound?

The Solution

So how to solve these issues and ensure that Breeders Cup weekend is a great one? A few simple measures basically solve everything:

1. Go back to the Big Eight being the Saturday races. It's okay to have the order of the races determined yearly when the fields are released, so long as Turf-Classic is the final two races every time.

2. Put the other six races back on the Friday card. And while you're at it, add a pair of races that would also attract nice fields:

a. A filly & mare turf mile. Yes, we do every couple of years get a Euro turf filly like Miesque or Six Perfections that comes over for the Mile. This isn't to compete with that. This is to give nice horses like Vacare and My Typhoon, who haven't a prayer against the big guns and aren't stout enough to go 10 furlongs, something to run in.

b. A juvenile sprint. Put it at six furlongs, and make it for the fleet two year olds that aren't going to go longer.

3. To show that the Friday races are a different beast, stop calling them the "Breeders Cup XXX". Instead, let's name them after some of the great horses of recent history, who have either made history in the Breeders Cup or Triple Crown.

4. Adjust the purse prices so the best horses run on Saturday. The easiest way to make sure that the Big Eight races aren't diluted is to make it financially worth a horse's while to run in the bigger races. For example, there's no reason for Intangeroo to run in the Sprint this year ($2 million purse) when she can run for $1 million against a much easier field. But what if the spread was $2.5 million versus $500k?

To summarize, here's the proposal that encapsulates everything, including a necessary change of the "Ladies Classic" back to the Distaff and the rectifying of the odd distance of the filly sprint:

Friday's Card

1. The Sheikh Albadou. (nee Turf Sprint): 3yo+, 5 furlongs (turf), $500k.
2. The Favorite Trick. (Juvenile Sprint): 2yo, 6 furlongs, $500k.
   
3. The Six Perfections. (Juvenile Filly Turf): 2yof, 1 mile (turf), $500k.
4. The A.P. Indy. (Marathon): 3yo+, 1 1/2 miles, $500k.
5. The Miesque. (Filly & Mare Turf Mile): 3yo+f&m, 1 mile (turf), $500k.
   
6. The Arazi. (Juvenile Turf): 2yo, 1 mile (turf), $500k.
   
7. The Safely Kept. (Filly & Mare Sprint): 3yo+f&m, 6 furlongs, $750k.
   
8. The Gulch. (Dirt Mile): 3yo+, 1 mile, $750k.
   

Saturday's Card

1. Juvenile Fillies: 2yof, 1 1/6 miles, $2 million.
   
2. Juvenile: 2yo, 1 1/16 miles, $2 million.
   
3. Filly & Mare Turf: 3yo+f&m, 1 1/4 miles (turf), $2 million.
   
4. Sprint: 3yo+, 6 furlongs, $2.5 million.
   
5. Mile: 3yo+, 1 mile (turf), $2.5 million.
   
6. Distaff: 3yo+f&m, 1 1/8, $3 million.
   
7. Turf: 3yo+, 1 1/2 miles (turf), $4 million.
   
8. Classic: 3yo+, 1 1/4 miles, $6 million.

Much better. Coming in the next few weeks: thoughts on the Breeders Cup races, the Curlin-Big Brown debate, and some actual race analysis.

Draft Analysis: 2008 First Round

In the NFL they say it takes 3 years to judge a draft. Thankfully, fantasy sports take a lot less long, because you get results every year and only keep some of your players. For example, as we noted last year, check out the list of studs taken by eventual champion It's Enrico Palazzo in 2007. That was a great draft. So let's take a look back to mid-March, and give a critique on this year's first rounders. We'll look at it with both the eye as to what's happened this year and the viability of the player taken for the next 2-3 years, as a first round pick should be a keeper.

1. Presidential Timber: Curtis Granderson, OF. Granderson's had a year that's not poor, but is still a let down from last year's peak, but that can hardly be deemed a shocker. Still, you have to think that knowing what his stats are 2/3 of the way through this year plus the fact that this team isn't competing this year and that he's already 27 years old, this may not have been the best #1 pick.
2. 54'50 or Fight!: Felix Hernandez, SP. A very solid year with a 3.08 ERA and a high K rate is somewhat offset by the fact that he's 7-7, thanks to pitching for a horrible team. No argument with this pick in the first round; one could quibble that Scott Kazmir should have gone here instead.

3. grundleman's bond: Travis Hafner, DH. 180 injury plagued and shitty plate appearances later, this pick was a disaster.

4. The Spam Avengers: Roy Oswalt, SP. After an absolutely hideous start, he's turned it around with an insane six-week stretch that's propelled him back into the elite of the NL. Not clear that he was the 2nd-best pitcher in the draft, though.

5. Wu Tang Financial: Scott Kazmir, SP. His early season DL stint aside, he's been lights out all year. Probably should have gone #1.

6. The Fighting Isiahs: Derek Jeter, SS. He's produced roughly what you would expect, though perhaps being a little light in the steals department. Solid pick at a position that's not particularly deep, though query how he'll be in 2010.

7. Matsui's Fissure: Rafael Soriano, RP. Poor guy can't stay healthy. Not a great selection in hindsight, though on draft day, he seemed like the best closer available. Who knew that Joakim Soria would turn into the next Tom Henke?

8. Decatur Commies: Derrek Lee, 1B. Lee's had a top-10 season for 1B's, and should age fairly well. No argument with this pick.

9. Decatur Commies: Brian Roberts, 2B. He's submitted a rough facsimile of last year to date, so in that respect, no complaints here either. However, given that Dan Uggla's about to top 30 HRs and Ian Kinsler is having a season for the ages at the position, query whether this was the best 2B to take.

10. Frank the Tank: James Shields, SP. Solid #2 pitcher having a very good year. Yes.

11. Le Dupont Torkies: Manny Ramirez, OF. The sturm und drang with Manny and LA aside, he's having a very nice year, so this pick was definitely fine.

12. It's Enrico Palazzo: Chipper Jones, 3B. Had a great start, which they just leveraged into Josh Beckett and Miguel Cabrera for the stretch drive. Can't really argue with the result for the team.

What to conclude? Well, if we did the draft again, Hafner and Soriano would be nowhere near the first round, Roberts may have slipped past Kinsler, and Chipper may have fallen below Roy Halladay as well. Joakim Soria also may have gone as the first closer, Jason Bay may have taken the place of Manny. But all in all, this shows how weak the crop was for the first round, especially on the hitting front.

TV Analysis: Handicapping Project Runway

There are just under 3 weeks remaining in a mildly interesting baseball season, and our fantasy league is currently in the throes of a 3-way tie between the last three teams to win it all, proving either that this year's draft was inconsequential or that the other 9 of us really don't know what we're doing. Given that the pennant race has been analyzed by everyone in the mass media and trade publications like BP, and that I'm not in the race for the fantasy league, let's try branching out a hair at the Gazette and handicapping the best reality show on television: Project Runway. This is especially topical, given that today they're showing the final contestants and the decoys at the NY fashion week show.

After Wednesday night's objectively poor show with a bunch of random items (bringing back eliminated designers for no reason? eliminating 2 contestants for no reason? the planetarium party where it was too dark to see the outfits?), we're down to six contestants. We'll put aside the fact that last year's finalists Rami and Jillian are light years better than anyone left on the show, and the fact that we've had some really goofy/stupid challenges this year (the Saturn car fiasco?). Let's countdown in reverse order who's most likely to win the show. And remember what it takes to win on the show: (a) not being eliminated, which means consistently not sucking, and (b) being able to succeed at the fashion show, which means having the ability to make a diverse range other clothes.

The Outsiders

6. Suede. Not to be confused with Blayne, the other over-the-top blonde who was eliminated this week, Suede has perpetually found himself on the wrong end if runway questions from Nina Garcia and has yet to exhibit any of the panache the other 5 designers have shown. He may survive another week but it's tough to see him at Bryant Park. Odds: 30-1.

5. Joe. The Bret Saberhagen of the group, Joe manages to alternate beautiful designs (like last week's) with utter disasters (like the week before's). Given he's already been close to auf'd recently, it's hard to see him going forward. Odds: 20-1.

4. Jerrell. Until this past week he'd been pretty anonymous, neither setting the world in fire nor disappointing everyone either. That's a fine way to duck losing early, it's also not a way to win. It's also notable that his win last week wasn't the judges' decision, it was the decision of the prior designers in the Gimmick of the Week. We're still shy on evidence that Top American Designer Michael Kors actually likes a single thing he makes, which ain't going to carry the day here. Odds: 12-1.

The Contender

3. Kenley. The first designer left who actually has a plausible shot of winning the damn thing, her early promise and 60s-stewardess style cuteness has been trimmed a bit in the last two weeks with some poor designs and a horrendous display of attitude. While the producers are probably loving the fact that the other designers can't stand her cockiness and laugh, it's spilled over into shouting matches with Heidi and Nina, which will not curry their favor. Additionally, Top American Designer Michael Kors has correctly noted that Kenley, while talented, often prefers to do what she wants and not follow the rules of a given challenge. This, problematically, leaves her susceptible to getting knocked off in the final 3 challenges, as she does run be risk of missing the boat badly in a given week. Still, if she makes it to the finals, she's got the talent to make a neat and diverse line that would appeal to the judges. That is, assuming that she was lying last week and actually knows what work other top designers have done. Being a bumpkin is not a winning trait for this show. Odds: 5-1.

The Favorites

2. Leanne. Unless she actually dances around naked on the runway with Seal in her arms, she's a shoo-in to the finals. Her work is flawless, she performs well in the challenges, and has a creative eye. And she'll probably have the ability to put together a diverse and smart line for Fashion Week. Odds: 2-1.

1. Korto. So why is she the favorite? Look to the past seasons for guidance. The judges have routinely picked a designer that's more progressive And daring than one that's flawless and traditional. (examples: Christian over Rami; Jeffrey over Ulee and Michael; Jay over common sense.) Her designs are neat, different, innovative, and well-constructed. If the judges decide that it's time for sticking with the conventional or she bombs badly in Fashion Week, then you have to like Leanne's or Kenley's chances, but beyond that, she's the clear favorite. Odds: 7-5.