Speaking of which, how did we do last year? We nailed two winners: Beholder in the Distaff and Classic Empire in the Juvenile. And we hit the Juvenile exacta by picking Not This Time for second, which paid $39. Beyond that, if you squinted, there were picks that could have made you money:
- We picked Coasted and Cavale Doree to run 2-3 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, which they did, at 23-1 and 15-1, respectively. Unfortunately, our pick to win (Spain Burg) was horrible.
- We picked Queen's Trust to run 2nd in the Filly Turf; she won at 8-1.
- We selected Om to win the Turf Sprint; he ran second at 13-2, and was a nose from winning.
- We gave Finest City our designation of "price horse to consider" in the Filly Sprint and picked her to come 2nd, she won at 8-1.
- We picked California Chrome and Arrogate in the top two slots (once Shaman Ghost scratched), they ran 2-1. Okay fine, everyone did that.
So let's get back to it and see if we can come a little closer to running the table this year, and break down the races by describing the circumstances, the favorites, some price horses we like, our thoughts on how to bet the race, and our picks. We'll do Friday's 4 races today and Saturday's 9 tomorrow. As usual, we're assuming the track is fast and the turf is firm both days, and without a major bias. This year we're at Del Mar, which is a gorgeous track with smaller stretch runs, so we're largely shying away from deep closers.
Synopsis: 1 mile on the turf for 2 year old girls. Domestic runners have taken 7 of the 9 editions of this race, with 3 of those winners coming from Chad Brown's barn. What's curious is that the two foreign runners were trained by Charles Hills and Michael Delzangles - both fine trainers, but two men who have had limited runners and success in the United States.
Favorite: Chad Brown is the leading trainer in America, has had a ton of success in this race, and saddles Rushing Falls, who is 2-for-2 with an explosive win at Keeneland last out. She's a solid yet beatable favorite, as her speed figures give her no advantage over a bunch of horses here, including her stablemate Significant Form.
Price Horse to Consider: Moon Dash lost by a nose at Santa Anita's prep race for this and cost $650,000 at auction. If there's enough pace up front - which is questionable - then she's got a chance to rally stoutly and catch a piece.
Betting Approach: Spread. Chad Brown and Aidan O'Brien have the likely top 4 betting choices and we find it hard to draw a line between most of them.
Selections: It's somehow amazing that O'Brien has won a gazillion Breeders Cup races but has never won this race or the Filly and Mare Turf. And it can't be that he can't train fillies - the filly Found won the Turf two years ago. Regardless, Happily is probably the most accomplished horse he's ever brought to this race - she owns 4 careers wins, including 2 Grade 1s, and is in top form. Plus she's regally bred - she's a full sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Gleneagles and her mother is a full to the accomplished Giant's Causeway. O'Brien has already broken the record for most Grade 1 wins in a season - our guess he pads that record right off the bat.
1. Happily
2. Significant Form
3. Rushing Fall
Dirt Mile
Synopsis: A mile on the dirt for all comers. This usually is one of our least favorite races on the cards because we think it pulls interesting runners out of multiple races (Sprint, Classic, Filly Sprint, even the regular Mile) to put them together in a somewhat meaningless heat. But this year it's attracted a nice collection of horses that actually belong in a 1-mile race, so we're kinda curious .
Favorite: This could go a few ways, but we're going to guess it'll land on Mor Spirit, who's won the Met Mile back in June on Belmont day with a smashing performance and a very high speed figure. The problem is that's the last race he won, and he hasn't been seen in nearly 5 months. This is not an easy race to win off a long layoff.
Price Horse to Consider: Iron Fist has not been winning at the best tracks in America - his wins this year came in Washington, Iowa and Oklahoma. But he has never been worst than 3rd in his 7 starts at a mile, which also includes 5 wins, and reports are that he's working out well. We love distance specialists, he's a solid one.
Betting Approach: Narrow. We think there are four horses a rung above the others in this race and are against two of them. We don't love Mor Spirit off the long layoff, and are against Accelerate, who we think is going to get fried once he meets tougher speed up front. Also, some people like Battle of Midway. We don't.
Selections: Sharp Azteca has a big shot if he runs his best race, but we're concerned that he's going to get fried up front with Accelerate and some others. We really like Cupid, who is Bob Baffert's 5th or 6th best horse, that is to say, talented but a notch below the elite horses in America. He has tactical speed and should rate a nice trip off the front runners. For 3rd, we'll take 3 year old Practical Joke, who never wins at 2 turns but usually catches a piece.
1. Cupid
2. Sharp Azteca
3. Practical Joke
Juvenile Turf
Synopsis: A mile on the grass for 2 year old colts. Remember how we said Americans did well in the filly edition of this race? The exact opposite is true here. Europeans have won 7 of the 10 races, and one of the other three was owned by the Coolmore connections and spent half his year in Europe. Oscar Performance's win last year was the only time since 2010 that a "True American" won this race.
Favorite: This looks like one of those races where any of 4 horses can be favored and we think we'll see a miasma of horses between 4-1 and 6-1. Our guess is favoritism will land on James Garfield, which has to be one of the most unlikely names for a European racehorse ever. We fully expect to see a steed named Millard Fillmore in next year's Italian Derby.
Price Horse to Consider: Flameaway is going to be completely ignored in the betting, but that might be a huge mistake. A $400,000 purchase trained by Mark Casse, he's won 3 of 4 starts but has never actually run on the turf, as twice he's been rained off. His breeding is very good for the grass, and he looks to have tactical speed. This looks like a horse that can make a huge move forward going dirt to turf. Very, very live at a big price.
Betting Approach: Spread. You can make a case for over half the field here.
Selections: Godolphin has been relatively quiet in the Breeders Cup recently - they did win this race with Outstrip 4 years ago, but they have entered far fewer horses than they did a decade or two ago. Which is in part why we're intrigued by Masar, who ran a nice 3rd on the Arc undercard last month, finishing close to Happily. If we like her, we probably should like him as well. We'll take him over Voting Control, who we think will close into a solid pace for Chad Brown, and our bomb.
1. Masar
2. Flameaway
3. Voting Control
Distaff
Synopsis: 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for fillies and mares 3 years old and up. This race is usually a lot of fun for those of us that like the sport of racing, but it's generally a bad spot to make money. In 33 runnings, only 6 winners have been at odds greater than 10-1, and there hasn't been one since Round Pond in 2006. Some would argue that means we're due for a bomb. Unfortunately, there are only 8 horses in this year's heat.
Favorite: Stellar Wind has three grade 1 wins this year, is undefeated at Del Mar, and has consistently run higher speed figures than most of the field. But there are some issues with her. One is that she's clearly not as fast as last year, though it may not matter. The second is she hasn't run since late July, and is coming in off a 3-month layoff. Historically, that's not how you win this race: only three times has a horse won this race without running in the prior 5 weeks, and only twice has it been more than two months. (Ironically, one of those was Stopchargingmaria's defeat of Stellar Wind two years ago.) The third is that she's a 5 year old, and the only horses that have won at that age or older were Hall of Famers (Bayakoa, Beholder) or a bomb (One Dreamer). Stellar Wind is neither. We wouldn't toss, but are skeptical.
Price Horse to Consider: There are nine horses running over the weekend that have won Breeders Cup races, and the first is in this race, as Champagne Room tries to pull off the Juvenile Fillies-Distaff double, which only Beholder has done. She's only had two starts this year, but her comeback wasn't bad (albeit against nobody) and there's reason to suspect she'll improve here. At 15-1, she's not the craziest idea.
Betting Approach: Narrow. There are only 8 horses in this race to begin with, and we don't think Mopotism has any chance at all. We also don't particularly love either of Elate or Abel Tasman; we think the former earned her Grade 1 laurels beating up on subpar fields, and think the latter is going the wrong way, as evidence by her goofy rides in the last two races where she made odd middle moves. Finally, Romantic Vision is in good form, but this looks to be a bit over her head.
Selections: The big question is whether Paradise Woods will be able to dominate this race on the front end. Her Santa Anita Oaks and Zenyatta wins showed a horse that flaunted her speed and never looked back. By contrast, in the Kentucky Oaks she was pressed every step of the way by another front-runner and was fried by the top of the stretch. We're willing to look past the Kentucky Oaks in part because it was in the slop, but mainly, because California tracks are much more generous to speed than Kentucky, and the Distaff is usually won by horses with early or tactical speed. We don't think anyone's going to really press her on the front end, and that she can simply wire the field. Underneath, we'll use the favorite plus Forever Unbridled, who's not without chance, but we think won't love the shorter Del Mar stretch.
1. Paradise Woods
2. Forever Unbridled
3. Stellar Wind
Coming up tomorrow: our preview of the nine (!) races on the main card.
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