Friday, November 3, 2017

2017 Breeders Cup Preview Part II: Saturday's Races

We've got nine races to cover, so let's dispense with the chitchat and get on to it.

Juvenile Fillies

Synopsis:  1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2yo girls.  Last year's upset by Champagne Room at 33-1 continued the theme that in this race, you're best going with either a favorite or a bomb.  Here is how the 33 winners have broken down by price:

Less than 2-1: 9
2-1 to 3-1: 8
3-1 to 5-1: 6
5-1 to 10-1: 2
10-1 to 20-1: 1
Over 20-1: 7

Even those stats don't tell the full story: of the three horses between 5-1 and 20-1, one was on a synthetic surface (She Be Wild in 2009).  While the average win pay in this race is $22, the median is $6.70.  In short, the worst play is a horse in mid-range odds.  Either go with the favorites or look for a bomb.

Favorite:  Moonshine Memories is 3-for-3 with two wins over the track and is a well-bred filly.  She's a solid favorite but at the same time, she's never run particularly fast, and seemed to be running out of gas at the end of her prep race.  Respect, but playing against.

Price Horse to Consider:  Wonder Gadot is making her dirt debut, but there's no reason to think that she won't take to the surface, as she's out of Medaglia d'Oro and a Vindication mare.  And we think she may sit a nice trip - ignore all the 1's in her past performances, because those were on slowly run turf races.  She's not going to outsprint some of these fillies into the first turn but won't be a stone closer either.

Betting Approach:  Spread.  Honestly, if you're playing a Pick-something, our advice is to use Moonshine Memories defensively but focus on some bombs.

Selections:  We think there's going to be a lively pace in this race, which might set up for a closer.  We're going to take a gamble that longshot Stainless is the one who gets up.  A well-regarded Todd Pletcher horse, her last race was a toss-out because it was on the turf, except that it showed that she's in good form.  But it's the prior start in the Adirondack Stakes that has us wondering if she's good and being overlooked: she fell to her face at the start and spotted the field at least a dozen lengths.  She actually wound up running a little after that, but went wide on a day with a golden rail, and the race basically a toss out.  As noted, since then she's worked well and had a useful prep that will likely throw everyone off the scent of a Pletcher/Velazquez horse with good breeding.  She's going to be completely ignored in betting - she's 20-1 on the morning line, and we think she'll be longer than that.  In a race without an obvious star, we think she rates as good a chance as any.

1.  Stainless
2.  Wonder Gadot
3.  Moonshine Memories

Turf Sprint

Synopsis:  5 furlongs on the turf for all comers.  This is only the 4th time this race isn't at 6 1/2 furlongs, but in fairness, it's also only the 4th time it hasn't been run at Santa Anita with their bespoke turf chute.  This remains an entertaining race to watch and a bear to handicap.

Favorite:  Lady Aurelia is one of the odder horses you'll see all weekend: trained by Wesley Ward, she's only made 2 of her 7 starts in the States, and has otherwise run in Europe.  And quite well: she won at Ascot both this year and last year, and has a Grade 1 win in France to boot.  She's fast and talented, which bodes well here.

Price Horse to Consider:  Cotai Glory had some success sprinting overseas, and ran so-so at Woodbine in his last, but that may be because he encountered soft turf.  Perhaps he rebounds on a firmer surface?

Betting Approach:  Narrow.  Usually we think this race is wide open for chaos.  This year, we think there are three standouts.

Selections:  Lady Aurelia and Marsha, who beat her last out, tower over the field on speed figures, and both like 5 furlongs.  It's dull, but we think they make up the exacta; gun to our heads, we prefer Lady Aurelia by a hair.  The only domestic horse we're interested in is Disco Partner, who's had a really nice year and is a good sprinter, but 5 furlongs may be too short for him.  We'll take him to round out the triple.

1.  Lady Aurelia
2.  Marsha
3.  Disco Partner

Filly and Mare Sprint

Synopsis:  7 furlongs on the dirt for the ladies 3 years old and up.  Three year olds remain horrible bets in this field, as they're still winless.  That factoid is going to get strongly tested this year by...

Favorite:  In March, Unique Bella was on everyone's short list of favorites for the Kentucky Oaks off her decisive wins at Santa Anita.  Then she was injured and off the trail.  Proving her quality, the horse she trounced in her last race, Abel Tasman, came back and won the Kentucky Oaks.  She resurfaced last month in a 6 1/2 furlong prep race that she completely dominated.  If she improves off of that, she'll be very tough to beat.

Price Horse to Consider:  Proper Discretion comes into this race with good early speed and at 10-for-17 record.  Now yes, she's really only been running in Ohio, which isn't known for its high quality racing.  On the other hand, she's going to be at least 30-1 and does like to sprint.  She vaguely reminds of us Work All Week, who similarly seemed to be keeping cheap company but was a distance specialist, and popped the field in the 2014 Sprint.  Just saying.

Betting Approach:  Narrow.  There are a bunch of horses in here that have spent the entire year beating up on each other and running blah speed figures - we're looking at you, By the Moon, Finleysluckycharm, Paulassilverlining, Carina Mia and Highway Star.  We're inclined to toss them all and go with horses with some upside.

Selections:  Our strategy here is to include Unique Bella both on top and underneath in exactas and trifectas along with a few who have been a little removed from the usual filly and mare sprint circuit.  The one we like the most is Ami's Mesa, who's great at 7 furlongs, but has never run on the dirt before.  If she adapts well, we think she'll get a nice trip just off the pace and could pull off an upset at a nice price.  Underneath, we'll use Curlin's Approval, who likes the distance, Bar of Gold, who's cutting back, and last year's winner, Finest City, in case she wakes up.

1.  Ami's Mesa
2.  Unique Bella
3.  Curlin's Approval 

Filly and Mare Turf

Synopsis:  1 1/8 miles on the turf for the ladies.  This is the shortest distance for this race, it's always been either 1 1/4 or 1 3/8 miles.  Del Mar's turf can't do a race at 1 1/4 miles because of its configuration, but it's odd that they chose to go to this short a distance, rather than longer.  We're not pleased.

Favorite:  Possibly the best story of the entire weekend is Lady Eli's attempt to win her second Breeders Cup race.  She won the Juvenile Fillies Turf three years ago, then in the middle of her 3yo season came down with laminitis and nearly died.  Not only did live and make it back to the track, she's been amazing: 4 wins and 3 seconds in 7 starts, including a loss by a nose in this race last year to Queen's Trust (who also returns).  She has an outside chance at Horse of the Year if she pulls this off.

Price Horse to Consider:  Time for our annual promotion of a Shug McGaughey horse that we claim has a chance.  War Flag is a regally-bred filly that exits a win in the Flower Bowl - a Grade 1 prep for this race - that is largely going to be forgotten because she's shortening up in distance and travelling across the country.  She has some knocks, but if she's 15-1 or higher, she's a must-use.

Betting Approach:  Either single or spread.  If you think Lady Eli is a lock, then just single her and move on.  If you don't, there are a lot of different directions you can go.

Selections:  We're squarely in the Lady Eli camp and think she's one of the most likely win candidates all weekend.  We think the real way to make money in this race is with exactas, trifectas and superfectas, because we don't love a lot of the other horses that will take money.  Specifically, we think Grand Jete is overhyped, Dacita wants more distance, Avenge will get cooked on the front end, and Queen's Trust is just not in great form.  We're much more interested in trying some bombs underneath, such as War Flag, Nezwaah (who might have just hated soft turf in her last) and Wuheida, who may be getting good fast.  But to us this race is all about Lady Eli.  Let's hope she does something special and memorable.

1.  Lady Eli
2.  War Flag
3.  Nezwaah

Sprint

Synopsis:  6 furlongs on the dirt for the fast and furious.  One of the biggest mistakes we perpetually make in this race is predicting a pace meltdown because of all the fast runners and picking a closer.  The truth is that front-runners and stalkers dominate this race, having won 17 of the last 20 editions.  Oddly, the only three closers in that time period (Midnight Lute twice and Secret Circle) were trained by Bob Baffert, who also trains...

Favorite:  Drefong, who won this race fairly impressively last year and is back to defend his title off a short campaign: a start out west where his jockey was thrown leaving the gate, and a decisive score at Saratoga in late August.  That's it.  That's his entire campaign.  We'd laugh at it, but Baffert's won this race five times, and his runners have had campaigns of 4, 4, 1, 1 and 3 races, respectively.  The man knows what he's doing.

Price Horse to Consider:  One of the most consistent themes in this race is to take a horse that has had a lot of success at 6 furlongs; horses shortening up or stretching out are terrible bets.  For the epitome of this, we give you Whitmore, who's won 7 of 9 starts at 6 furlongs, and finished third in the other two starts.  He was the leading sprinter in the country until early June, when he ran a bad 3rd in the True North, followed by a layoff, then a blah third in the DeFrancis at Laurel Park.  He did win his last race, so maybe he's rounding back into form.  At 15-1 or so, he's worth a second look, even though he's a closer.

Betting Approach:  Spread.  Honestly, we like our pick a lot, but we wouldn't be shocked with a win by about half the field.

Selections: Takaful seemed to lose his way on the Triple Crown trail earlier this year, so the excellent Kiaran McLaughlin gave him a rest, then brought him back at a sprint at Saratoga this summer, and was rewarded with an emphatic win at 6 furlongs.  He then ran him in the Jerkens at 7 furlongs, where he dueled through quick fractions and was passed late by Practical Joke - who is a typical example of a good 1-turn horse that would be a bet-against at 6 furlongs - and then backed it up in the Vosburgh.  We think he's developed into an ace sprinter, and think he validates it here with a wire-to-wire victory over last year's champ and Roy H, who's had a really nice year and is far from out of this.

1.  Takaful
2.  Roy H
3.  Drefong

Mile

Synopsis:  A mile on the turf for all comers.  While the Euros have done well in this race (having won 13 of 33 editions), the two biggest outfits, Coolmore and Godolphin, have never won this race in over 50 tries.  Given that they make up 29% of the field this year, this might be relevant.

Favorite:  Ribchester has had a solid year: a 3rd place finish in Dubai at a mile and an eighth to start the year, then 5 Grade 1 races at a mile in Europe with 3 wins and 2 close seconds.  He's a horse that's tough to toss, but is also tough to take at a short price.  Our interest in him is a lot higher if he's 3-1; if he's 7-5, meh.

Price Horse to Consider:  Bill Mott won this race last year with Tourist, and this year brings the improving Ballagh Rocks, who's run some nice races at a mile this year.  We think he's probably a year away from actually winning the race, but he's got tactical speed and we could see him hanging around for a piece of the trifecta.  For a complete bomb to hit the board, Om is a very unlikely win candidate but always runs well at Del Mar and likes a mile.

Betting Approach:  Narrow.  We're skeptical of some of the horses that will take action here.  World Approval seems to have woken up at a mile, but his win at Saratoga was over a complete bog, and he beat absolutely nobody in a paceless, oddly run Woodbine Mile.  We're not buying Suedois against better Euros.  Lancaster Bomber has still only won once.  Roly Poly has talent but she's going to go to the lead.  It's almost impossible to wire the field in the Mile, and we think she'll be fried by the far turn.  As will Heart to Heart.

Selections:  Ribchester merits respect, but we're even more interested in Zelzal, who last year was a highly touted and successful 3 year old but has had a trying season as a 4 year old.  He ran pretty well in her first start of the year on firm turf, closing well but failing to catch the excellent Tareef (who would probably be our pick here).  His next two starts were Grade 1s on softer turf that he didn't like, and yet, he didn't run horribly in either of them.  We think he'll appreciate the addition of Lasix, getting firmer turf, and having a strong pace to run at.  We'll take him to post an upset (he's 20-1 on the morning line) over Ribchester and Ballagh Rocks.

1.  Zelzal
2.  Ribchester
3.  Ballagh Rocks

Juvenile

Synopsis:  1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2 year old colts.  One consistent theme when this race is in California is to ignore the New York horses - in the last 25 years, only Shanghai Bobby has shipped from the Empire State and won.  You're much better off staying with the locals or Kentucky horses.

Favorite:  Bolt d'Oro is likely the heaviest favorite on the weekend: three wins in California, including a blow out win in the prep for the Juvenile at a very fast time.  This looks like a serious racehorse.

Price Horse to Consider:  US Navy Flag might have been favored in the Juvenile Turf, but Aidan O'Brien has decided to run him here instead, even though all 10 of his starts have been on the sod and his dam was a pure turfer.  That said, whenever a European has won this race, he's been well-raced, and 10 starts as a two year old certainly qualifies.

Betting Approach:  Single.  Some will make a case against Bolt d'Oro.  It won't be us.

Selections:  Since we're pro a favorite that will be around even money, let's talk about underneath.  We're very meh on Firenze Fire and Free Drop Billy, the winners of the Kentucky and New York preps, and are much more interested in horses that finished second last out.  Good Magic is still a maiden but improved in the Champagne for Chad Brown, and we think he's ready to take a step forward.  We don't think Solomini will close the 8 length gap he lost to Bolt d'Oro in his last, but think he'll run well again.  This isn't the best betting race of the day - hopefully we can see stardom instead.

1.  Bolt d'Oro
2.  Good Magic
3.  Solomini

Turf

Synopsis:  1 1/2 miles on the turf for the long-winded.  10 of the last 12 editions have been won either by horses based in Europe or European horses that relocated to America for the year (Main Sequence).  Recently, their domination has been even more stark: they've swept the last four exactas, comprised the entire triple in 2014, and last year made up the entire superfecta.  If you're going to use an American horse, you'd best be hoping for weak Euros and a really good Yankee.

Favorite:  A couple of horses could be favored, but we think it'll probably be Beach Patrol, who's domestically based and won the Arlington Million and Hirsch Classic for trainer Chad Brown.  He's a perfectly fine horse, but we're not seeing greatness here.  In the Million, he barely beat Fanciful Angel, who was a third-tier Euro, and will be 30-1 on Saturday.  His Hirsch was marginally better as he beat Fanciful Angel by a larger margin, but largely because he just sat a perfect trip.  He looks like a good bet-against.

Price Horse to Consider:  There are a few, but let's focus for the moment on Cliffs of Moher, who is one of three horses Aidan O'Brien is sending and likely the one to get ignored.  Impeccably bred and very well-regarded by the Coolmore family, he was an excellent second in the Epsom Derby earlier this year, and has since had tough trips over soft goings while competing against the best of Europe.  He needs to move up a little on speed figures, but he should stalk the pace and may get first run on the closers.  At 20-1 or so, he's intriguing. 

Betting Approach:  Spread.  There are a lot of potential winners here.  We're not going to pick either Ulysses or Highland Reel - we're a little underwhelmed with the former's form, and think the latter will get cooked on the front end by Oscar Performance - but they're not without chance and we'll use them defensively in multi-race wagers. 

Selections:  In multi-race wagers we will use Cliffs of Moher and probably a little of Talismanic and Seventh Heaven, but our main interest is in Decorated Knight, who's had an excellent season with 3 Grade 1's in Ireland and Dubai, including in the Irish Champion Stakes last out, which has produced a number of BC Turf winners (Pilsudski, Daylami, High Chapparal, Fantastic Light) plus others who ran 2nd (The Fugue, Golden Horn, and if we're being cute, Giant's Causeway and Swain albeit in dirt races).  The knock on him is that he's never raced at the Turf distance of 12 furlongs, but we're not particularly concerned - the breeding seems fine for the distance, and we like that he has tactical speed.  We'll take him to post a minor upset.

1.  Decorated Knight
2.  Cliffs of Moher
3.  Ulysses

Classic

Synopsis: 1 1/4 miles on the dirt for whoever's brave enough.  Again we're pressed for time so we're not doing a separate post on the Classic, even though we think it's a neat race.

Favorite: The only thing that's gone wrong for Gun Runner this year was a ban that kept him from running in the $10 million Pegasus stakes in January.  Since skipping that race, he's won 4 of 5 starts, including dominating wins in the Stephen Foster, Whitney and Woodward, a very prestigious trifecta to pull off.  He's quick, has tactical speed, and should be at his best coming into this race.  A very tough, legitimate favorite.

The Defending Champ: Three months ago, people were saying that Arrogate was the greatest horse of the century, as his Travers-Classic-Pegasus-World Cup wins were all sublime in their own way.  Then he came back in the San Diego Handicap, and finished a well-beaten 4th as the 1-20 favorite, while showing no interest in running.  He ran faster in the Pacific Classic a month later, but still lost and had to be heavily urged to get to second.  We see a horse that's lost interest in running and is going to be wildly overbet.  We're against completely, while still admitting that we wouldn't be upset to see him run back to his earlier form.

Price Horse to Consider:  Some year, Aidan O'Brien is going to win this race with a European shipper.  He barely missed in 2000 with Giant's Causeway and was pretty damn close a few years ago with Declaration of War.  Now he brings two horses to the race making their dirt debuts.  We're not at all interested in Churchill, but the lightly-raced War Decree is very intriguing.  In his last, he raced on synthetic, showed some tactical speed, and annihilated his competition in the stretch.  At 20-1 or so, he's very interesting on the come.

Betting Approach:  Narrow.  We are against a few horses that are going to take some action at the windows.  In addition to Arrogate, we're not seeing it for Collected, who we think won the Pacific Classic because Arrogate wasn't operating at 100% (we're not buying the speed figure for either horse) and got a relatively easy lead.  Here, he's going to get fried by Diversify, who we think is a neat story with no chance.  We have no interest in Cupid, who's just too slow.  Finally, Pavel might be the horse we want the most in 2018, but he's making his 5th career here and has only a maiden and Grade 3 win to his name.  This is a tough spot to get your first Grade 1 win.

Selections: We think this entire race is going to be a cat-and-mouse game between Gun Runner and West Coast, who's coming into this race in great form with five straight wins, including the Travers and Pennsylvania Derby.  While either can show early speed, we think both will sit off Collected and Diversify and make their moves on the turn to duke it out in the stretch.  We think West Coast has the slightest edge in upside and distance pedigree, which is why we're picking him to beat out Gun Runner in the stretch, and incredibly, gives Bob Baffert his fourth straight Breeders Cup Classic winner.

1.  West Coast
2.  Gun Runner
3.  War Decree

Enjoy Breeders Cup day everyone!

No comments: