2018 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part I: The Longshots

The fields have been drawn, the jockeys have been set and it's time for our annual rite of embarrassment: our Kentucky Derby Preview!  We're very excited for this year's race because we legitimately think this is the best crop we've seen since 2007, which included Hall of Famer Curlin, Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Street Sense and good horses like Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday.  This year's group has everything you would want in a Derby: phenoms, veterans, Breeders' Cup winners, and foreign intrigue.

What it also means is that it has a slew of horses that we would consider genuine surprises if they took home the roses.  This year half the field is legitmiately longer than 50-1 to win the race, and some of the longer shots would be a Giacomo level surprise.  So let's countdown the bottom 10; tomorrow we'll look at the 10 possibilities.  (We are ignoring also-eligible Blended Citizen, and advise you to do the same.)  We're including with our analysis the track's morning line odds and our fair value odds, which is the price where we think a horse becomes a good bet.  As you'll see, for this first group, you're going to need odds you won't find at Churchill Downs on Saturday.  As always, we're assuming the track is fast and fair on Saturday.

Bombs Away!

20.  Promises Fulfilled.  (Morning Line: 30-1; Fair Value Line: 200-1) His one good race was a Fountain of Youth where he went to the front unchallenged and stole the race after setting a dawdling pace.  He followed that up with a Florida Derby where he dueled through significantly faster fractions (the half mile was nearly 2 1/2 seconds faster than the Fountain of Youth) and faded to DAFL.  A horse winning the Derby off a last race Gowanus Speed Figure of 47 - which would lose a maiden claiming race at Aqueduct - would be historic. 

19.  Bravazo.  (ML: 50-1; FV: 200-1) Well he finished 8th in his last, which is marginally better than Promises Fulfilled.  We love the D. Wayne Lukas is still saddling Kentucky Derby entrants at age 82.  Then we remember that all of his recent big race successes - Oxbow in the '13 Preakness, Take Charge Brandi in the '14 Juvenile Fillies - came when he had a fit horse steal a race on the front end.  That's hard to do in with a horse that lacks early speed.

18.  Firenze Fire.  (ML: 50-1; FV: 200-1) All of his success has come in 1-turn races where he was able to sit off a fair pace and make a big stretch run after getting into position on the turn.  In his 3 two-turn efforts, he's steadily gotten worse each time.  We do think he's got a big shot in the Woody Stephens in 5 weeks, for whatever that's worth.

17.  Free Drop Billy.  (ML: 30-1; FV: 200-1) Dale Romans is going to win a Kentucky Derby some day, but it seems highly unlikely that it'll come from a horse that stagnated 5 races ago.  Also, we refuse to endorse an animal with this stupid a name.

16.  Instilled Regard.  (ML: 50-1; FV: 200-1) In his last race he received a perfect trip on the rail and just off the leaders and still finished 4th by over 10 lengths.  Jerry Hollendorfer winning the Derby would be awesome.  If this guy were to do it, it'd also be a shock.

Voice of the Kentucky Derby and dapper gent, Larry Collmus

15.  My Boy Jack.  (ML: 30-1; FV: 100-1) We are inherently skeptical of horses that need to alter their plans and run an extra race just to qualify for the Derby, which is what this guy did by running in the Lexington, a the ultimate last-ditch  Derby prep race.  Sure, he won.  In a slow time over absolutely nobody while showing some possible distance limitations.  Other than that, great.

14.  Combatant.  (ML: 50-1; FV: 100-1) This guy only drew into the race because two other horses dropped out late, which is never a great sign for your chances.  He's a dead closer that's a bit slower than the other dead closers, so while there are strained arguments to make for him finishing in the superfecta, we're more of the opinion that you'll hear his name called by Friend of the Blog Larry Collmus exactly once, when he runs through every horse the first time and says "and the trailer is Combatant."

Fun Horses to Own, Limited Chance Here

13.  Flameaway.  (ML: 30-1; FV: 100-1)  Owner of 5 wins in 8 starts, he's won on dirt, synthetic and turf, at distances ranging from 4 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 mile, and has earned over $650,000.  He's only run out of the money twice, one of which was in last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, where he was 8th but only lost by 4 lengths.  He's as honest as a horse gets, and if he stays healthy, will almost certainly have a productive career.

What the 8 races show is that while he's consistent, he's consistently a level below the top horses in this race.  There's not a lot of upside here, especially if he goes to the front where there's going to be a lot of pace.  Look for him to fade and resurface in a lot of Grade 2 races this summer.

12.  Enticed.  (ML: 30-1; FV: 66-1) In his two biggest races, he was thumped by horses further up this list and appears to have some profound distance limitations.  We think he's a nice 1-turn horse that will have a useful career but is way over his head here.  Look for a middling effort and a long layoff to follow, per Godolphin's usual.

11.  Solomini.  (ML: 30-1; FV: 66-1) This guy is also about as consistent as they come.  Since stretching out after his maiden race, his speed figures have been 90-93-93-92-92.  Even trainer Bob Baffert noted that he has "one speed."  That isn't an knock per se, grinders will often have long careers, and this guy's breeding indicates that he should do okay at a longer distance.  But this is the type of horse that's competitive in the Belmont if he speeds up and everyone else falls apart.  In the Derby?  More cannon fodder.

Coming up tomorrow: the Top Ten, including our pick.