Since 1996 - what we define as the "modern" era of the Triple Crown, i.e., since the emergence of Bob Baffert - some of the "rules" have gone by the wayside, but a few remain. All but one (Charismatic) had 2-4 starts are a 3 year old, though all have had fewer than 4 since Smarty Jones in 2004. 17 of the 22 won a race as a 3 year old. (Exceptions include bombs Giacomo and Mine That Bird, but also the relatively logical Super Saver, Funny Cide and Real Quiet.) And a "sharp" prep race was a must - only Mine That Bird bucked that trend.What's recently emerged is the strange trend of not only winning your start before the Derby, but winning all of your starts as a 3 year old. Since Super Saver in 2010, each of the Derby winners has won their prep race, and only one has lost at all as a three year old. (Congrats to Powhatan County for beating Animal Kingdom in an anonymous allowance race at Gulfstream on March 3, 2011. He went on to have an uninteresting career for trainer George Weaver, winning 7 of 32 career starts.) Part of the reason may be the simple fact that there are so many ways to get to the Derby now that it's easy to duck the tough competition until the first Saturday in May. Or maybe it's just coincidence.
So is handicapping as simple as tossing any horse that lost a race in 2018? Not necessarily, because this would still leave you with 4 horses, and would end up eliminate some prime contenders. With that, let's look at this year's top 10.
Possible, But Not Our Cup of Tea
10. Noble Indy. (ML: 30-1; FV: 50-1) There are six big domestic final preps for the Kentucky Derby: the Santa Anita, Louisiana, Arkansas and Florida Derbies, the Wood Memorial, and the Blue Grass. While winning one of those generally stamps you as a contender for the Kentucky Derby, every year without fail one of those winners is ignored on Derby Day. As a matter of common sense, this has to be so - one of them will at best be the 6th choice in the race, and not everyone can look fabulous in the beauty pageant that is Derby prep season. And sometimes a complete bomb wins a prep and looks like someone who won't repeat in Louisville: think of Irap last year, or Dance with Fate in '14. Other times it's a horse that won his prep but displayed nothing more than sheer competence in the process. Examples are Outwork in '16, Vicar's in Trouble in '14.
This year's edition is the Blahest Derby Contender is Noble Indy, who's one of four horses in the race trained by Todd Pletcher, who needs no introduction here. After two wins in Florida, he was shipped to Louisiana, where he ran a not-great 3rd in the Risen Star, followed by professional yet unexciting win in the Louisiana Derby. It's not so much that his performance wasn't that scintillating, it's that he beat nobody of import: nobody in the LA Derby besides him will be less than 30-1 on Saturday. And the truth is he was in Louisiana because Pletcher needs to keep his horses apart from each other. So he sent his second-tier contender to Louisiana while he kept in Florida...
9. Audible. (ML: 8-1; FV: 20-1) We were on the fence about this guy to begin with because we don't love his breeding for10 furlongs, and while he's had two good starts in a row, we're concerned that he's the product of just liking Gulfstream. (We're aware he won twice at Aqueduct. Once was over a bad maiden field and the other was against 3 other horses in the dead of winter. Yawn.) Then came this quote from trainer Todd Pletcher:
Audible has some noticeable discoloration on his front hooves, the result of the product Equilox being applied, Pletcher said, in order to “bump up” the walls of his hooves.
“He has shelly walls. This gives the blacksmith more of a wall to work with. It’s a proactive approach,” Pletcher said, to guard against quarter cracks and to make sure there’s enough area to affix a shoe with nails.
Horses with similar issues sometimes wear glue-on shoes, but Pletcher said he’s had inconsistent results with glue-ons – “sometimes we get issues with their soles” – and thought this approach was best for Audible, who had the work done after the Holy Bull and prior to the Florida Derby, Pletcher said.
In that case, we'll definitely pass. This guy has a lot more in common with Pletcher's Derby favorites that bombed - Verrazano, Gemologist and Bandini - than winners Super Saver and Always Dreaming, especially at what will be a fairly short price.
Apollo's Ghost
8. Magnum Moon. (ML: 6-1; FV: 20-1) We have referenced the Apollo Curse many times in this blog: no horse has won the Derby without a start as a 2 year old since Apollo in 1882. We can spend a lot of time going over the reasons why or just link to our old posts. To be clear, we don't think it's a curse - we think there are excellent reasons why a horse that runs a race for the first time in January or later of his 3 year old season has never won a race with 19 opponents at a new distance in front of 160,000 people. It's a tall order for veteran 3 year olds; it's even harder for one that hasn't been battle tested and amply prepared.
First up is Magnum Moon, who ran his first race for Todd Pletcher in January, and is 4-for-4, with wins in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby. What worries us in particular about him is not only the lack of a 2 year old foundation, but also that he's still showing immaturity. In his last race, he literally had the race all to himself and still continued to weave through the stretch, as he failed to properly change leads, and ran like he had spent too much time sipping mint juleps. Some will scoff this off as a horse that was bored when nobody was bothering him in the stretch; others have argued this shows he actually has upside. We go the other way - we see a colt with talent that still has some growing up to do and is likely to have issues at Churchill. At 6-1 or lower, we're not interested in taking a gamble that it's boredom, rather than immaturity.
7. Justify. (ML: 3-1; FV: 17-1) We concede that this guy is talented, and there's a chance he turns out to be a superstar and romps on Saturday. But this is exactly the type of horse that we will bet against every single time. He's a favorite that's trying to buck a ton of tradition by not only never starting as a two year old, he didn't get his career going until President's Day. He's only had three starts, which is a handicap only Big Brown has overcome in recent years. And his three wins all have giant caveats. He beat nobody in his first two starts, and in his last (the Santa Anita Derby), he walked to the lead and was never contested. Sure he repelled his lone challenger in the stretch, primarily because he was never challenged for the first 7 furlongs and had plenty left in reserve. That's an effort that is not going to be duplicated unless 8 other horses break poorly, or he's the next coming of Seattle Slew.
Justify is clearly not a stiff. If this were a weaker crop of horses, we'd give him a stronger look. Indeed, that's exactly how Big Brown bucked a ton of tradition and won in 2008: he took on a bunch of fairly terrible horses and won by nearly 10 lengths over the second-best male. But this isn't 2008, this is a tough group of horses Justify needs to beat. And we think that complete lack of experience won't help him once the gates open. If he tries to wire the field, he's going to see pressure that he's never seen before getting fried (shades of Bellamy Road in 2005) If he sits off the pace, he's going to get traffic trouble and dirt thrown at his face, two obstacles he's never faced before. He's never left California. He's beaten a total of 14 horses in his 3 races. And he is going to be 7-2 or shorter. Since the odds don't remotely match his chances to win, we're passing entirely.
6. Lone Sailor. (ML: 50-1; FV: 30-1) If you want to throw in a total bomb for exotics, you could do a lot worse than this guy. There's a touch of interesting breeding here - his granddam is the blue-blooded Aldiza, who won a Grade 1 and could run a distance. He has almost no early speed and zero success on a fast track, but he will be closing late into what shop be a decent pace, and his last race was his best yet. We give him a remote chance of actually winning, but a much better chance than many others at actually hitting the board, which is why we're ranking him here.
5. Hofburg. (ML: 20-1; FV: 17-1) Like Justify, he's also only had three starts, and he's only won once. But we like that he at least tried to break his maiden at Saratoga last summer. Those early starts build a foundation in a horse that is difficult to replicate. After that loss, he remained in training until resurfacing at Gulfstream this winter, where we won a maiden impressively. He was then aggressively placed into the Florida Derby, where he ran a good second against Audible, closing well but not having enough to keep up with the winner.
So why are we pro this guy and anti Justify and Audible? The first reason is price: Justify and Audible will be 7-2 and 6-1, respectively; this guy will be at least 15-1 (though we can see him as the "wise-guy" horse that gets bet). The other reason is his connections. Trainer Bill Mott and owner Juddmonte Farms are a top-notch and almost never try to rush their horses or put them in position to fail. Witness Juddmonte's conservative handling of Arrogate 2 years ago: they waited until he had enough experience to make his stakes debut, and they were rewarded with the Travers romp. Mott is arguably one of the 5 best trainers of our lifetime, but has rarely tried the Derby because he lets his horses develop at their own pace; he's not in the game for vanity and publicity. The fact that both Mott and Juddmonte are here with a horse that's only made 3 starts tells us they think they have a stud on their hands. When they think so, we pay attention
4. Vino Rosso. (ML: 12-1; FV: 10-1) He's 3rd on most people's list of Pletcher horses, but he's by far the most interesting to us. His breeding is excellent: Curlin was a Hall of Famer that needs no introduction, and has become an influential sire in the Triple Crown, as he's sired a horse that's finished in the money in a TC race each of the last 5 years, including Belmont winner Palace Malice and Preakness winner Exaggerator. His Wood Memorial was by far his best start of his career - sitting nicely off a quick pace, making a wide move on the far turn, and pushing past Enticed to win in a new career top. And he looked relatively professional doing so, and has retained Pletcher's preferred jockey, John Velazquez, who won last year's Derby on Almost Dreaming. We see his chances as no worse than Audible or Magnum Moon, and he's going to be easily double their price.
3. Good Magic. (ML: 12-1; FV: 8-1) We have seen super-trainer Chad Brown do this so many times that it's impossible to ignore. A well-regarded horse runs well enough first time out or first time off a layoff, shows some improvement in the second start, then explodes in his third start. Hell, that's Good Magic's entire profile from 2017: a solid if losing maiden run, consolidating some gains in the Champagne Stakes when finishing second, then a huge move forward in the Juvenile, which was his ultimate target.
We're seeing the exact same thing again this year: a so-so return to the races at Gulfstream, followed by a professional if unspectactular win in the Blue Grass. People are writing him off saying that he's shown no improvement in those two starts, given that the horse behind him in the Blue Grass was Flameaway, who's nobody's idea of a contender. We get it, but strongly disagree. There is no way on earth that Brown was priming Good Magic to peak in either of his first two races. Sure, he's happy that he won the Blue Grass, but the Derby is the ultimate goal. We're expecting a huge move forward from this guy on Saturday and like that he has the tactical speed to be in the mix early on without needing to be on the lead. Prime contender that we're not picking simply because we think the next two horses are just a little more talented.
2. Bolt d'Oro. (ML: 8-1; FV: 6-1) Is it possible for a horse that's an Eclipse finalist and the winner of two Grade 1 races to be underappreciated? After breaking his maiden, he won two Grade 1's in California stylishly and was deemed by all to be the strongest favorite on the Breeders' Cup card. He finished 3rd behind Good Magic and Solomini, largely because he ran extremely wide on both turns thanks to an abominable ride by Corey Nakatani, who validated our long-standing belief that he's the most overrated jockey in American history. The merry-go-round ride definitely cost Bolt d'Oro second, and we think he would have given Good Magic a run for the win had he received a smarter ride.
Both of his starts this year were excellent. He began with a somewhat strange win in the San Felipe, where he and McKinzie put on a stellar stretch duel, and Bolt d'Oro was placed first when McKinzie was DQ'd. He next ran a big number in the Santa Anita Derby, only to lose to Justify, which we largely chalk up to the dream trip Justify received on the lead. We already are on record that we think Justify is primed for a regression, so the fact this guy lost to him last out is no obstacle to us. By contrast, Bolt d'Oro is up for his third start of the year, and may be ready to take the final step forward and put forward a big effort on Saturday, and has literally never run a big race. Plus, we think there's a solid chance this guy gets completely forgotten in the betting. Huge contender.
The Pick
1. Mendelssohn. (ML: 5-1; FV: 4-1) We are still kicking ourselves for not futuring him in February at 44-1. He has one of the oddest running lines you'll ever see in a Kentucky Derby horse. His first three races were on the grass in Ireland and the UK, and could only be described as a disappointment: a maiden win and two terrible losses. But something clicked in his fourth career start in the Champagne Stakes, where he ran a decent second. Trainer Aiden O'Brien shipped him to Del Mar for the Juvenile Turf, which he won handily while showing excellent tactical speed.
Immediately after winning the Breeders Cup race, O'Brien announced they were pointing him for the Kentucky Derby. Normally this would be ludicrous: the horse had done well on grass, why should he be running in the Derby? Because of his impeccable breeding, which is why Coolmore bought him for $3 million. He's out of the super dam Leslie's Lady, who's the dam of future Hall of Famer Beholder, who won 11 Grade 1's on the dirt, plus Into Mischief, who had a good dirt career and is a hot dirt sire. And his sire is Scat Daddy, who had become one of the most fashionable sires before he died because his progeny could run on any surface. Put it bluntly: if Mendelssohn's resume includes a Grade 1 on the turf and the Kentucky Derby, he's one of the 5 most valuable sires on earth.
O'Brien started his year by running him on a synthetic surface at Dundalk in Ireland, which is hardly a conventional path for the Derby. He won handily while proving nothing. Then Mendelssohn shipped to Dubai for his dirt debut in the UAE Derby, a prep we generally ignore. Mendelssohn went to the front before pulling away to win by 18 lengths. Watch the replay if you want to see pure dominance:
Now if anyone else owned or trained this horse, we'd be skeptical. But there is no better trainer on earth than Aiden O'Brien. And this is by far the best chance he's had in a Triple Crown race. Importantly, he has excellent tactical speed (we would be a lot less interested in him if he were a dead closer, like many turf stars) and a good foundation of 7 starts. And even more importantly, he has all the hallmarks of a potential superstar. We think he's the best horse in the field and is going to sit just off the pace setters while getting first run on everyone else in the far turn, and has enough to hold off the competition in the stretch.
How to Bet
We think Mendelssohn will be at least 5-1, and everyone other than Justify is going to be a square price, so don't ignore the win betting. We're also all for keying our top choices over Lone Sailor, Hofburg, and if we had to use another longshot, maybe Solomini. And also take a look at the multi-race wagers, like the Oaks-Derby double (in the Oaks, we like Midnight Bissou, Eskimo Kisses and Wonder Gadot).
Good luck to all and enjoy the Derby!
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