Thursday, July 26, 2018

Justify's Place in History

February 7, 2004 was a regular day of Saturday racing at Santa Anita Park - some claimers, a couple of maiden and allowance races, and two stakes races.  The third race was the Grade 3 San Vincente Stakes, where Doug O'Neill and Bob Baffert had strong entries.  Both lost to Imperialism, who was 11-1 and turned out to have a successful career as a sprinter. 

Three races later on the card was a maiden race for three year olds, where the well-regarded and well-bred Storm Pilot was the 2-5 favorite off a good start a month earlier.  He finished second behind a complete buzzsaw trained by the relatively unknown Jason Orman: first time starter Rock Hard Ten, who was an enormous animal and thoroughly dominated the race.  It was one of those maiden wins that got everyone's attention, and made Rock Hard Ten something of a wiseguy horse.  Rock Hard Ten returned a month later, and this time sitting off the pace, easily won a 1-mile allowance race, beating a talented and well-meant Bob Baffert horse.  Clearly, this was a horse to watch.

Based on those strong victories, Rock Hard Ten's owners pushed him into the Santa Anita Derby with the hope of running him in the Kentucky Derby in his next start.  At the time, this was seen by many as crazy: the horse had 2 starts, and had started running in early February.  The ghosts of Apollo loomed large, as did all of the other Derby rules.  Regardless, he was sent off as the third choice in the Santa Anita Derby, where he ran well, but finished second to 30-1 shot Castledale, and was disqualified to third for interfering with Imperialism.  A fine and impressive start, but not the kind that portends immortality.

His third place finished meant he couldn't run in the Derby as he didn't have enough earnings, so he waited for the Preakness, where Derby winner Smarty Jones awaited.  Rock Hard Ten ran well...and finished second to Smarty Jones, losing by over 10 lengths.  A fifth-place finish in the Belmont followed, leaving many to believe that Rock Hard Ten was overrated.  That turned out to be unfair: he bombed in the Haskell, but did win the Swaps, plus the Malibu and Santa Anita Handicap, both Grade 1s.  He was one of the pre-race favorites for the 2005 Breeders Cup Classic the following fall off his win in the Goodwood Stakes, and we would have keyed him in all our bets that day.  Sadly, a foot injury lead to his retirement.



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We write about Rock Hard Ten because he's the first horse that came to mind when Justify retired yesterday, as it offers some perspective on just how much Justify overcame this winter and spring.  Both horses started their careers in February and had two flashy wins, and were obviously talented.  But unlike Rock Hard Ten, Justify won the Santa Anita Derby, and did it over a stubborn and accomplished foe in Bolt d'Oro.  He then went on to capture the Triple Crown, bookending two relatively easy wins around a difficult Preakness.  Rock Hard Ten, by contrast, struggled against the mediocre Castledale, and was nowhere near the winners in either of his Triple Crown races.  The inexperience caught up to him quickly. 

Rock Hard Ten's career is the norm for a late bloomer who tries to get into the Triple Crown races:  big wins early, failures when the waters get deeper.  And knowing that is what makes Justify's accomplishments all the more impressive.  Literally dozens of horses have tried what he did; all but him have failed. 

We're not going to wax poetic that Justify was one of the best horses we've seen.  Hell, he wasn't even Bob Baffert's first or second-best three year old this decade: he's clearly behind American Pharoah and Arrogate.  But it takes a special horse to pull off 4 Grade 1 wins and a Triple Crown when only starting his career on President's Day.  And while it's sad that he's retired after only 6 starts and we don't get to see what else he could do, don't let the briefness of his career diminish what he accomplished.  Beating the Curse of Apollo was amazing.  (Even Forego couldn't do it!)  Then carrying that over to win the Triple Crown is something for the ages.  He won't go down as one of the 10 best horses ever, but he's clearly an immortal, and one of the best horses we've ever seen. 

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Although nobody asked, let's wrap this up by ranking the 13 Triple Crown winners.  As you'll see, this starts off easy, then gets tricky.

1.  Secretariat (1973).  There's really only two horses you can argue for the top spot, and we'll take the one that set track records in each of the three Triple Crown races, plus two other track records, plus won two races on the turf.  If you asked 100 people on the street to name a horse, we bet he's the answer for 95 of them.

2.  Citation (1948).  The first horse to win a million dollars, he won 16 stakes races in a row, a record that went untouched until Cigar tied him in 1995-6.  His 3 year old season consisted of 19 wins in 20 starts, his only loss being against a horse named Saggy in the Chesapeake Trial Stakes, when Citation received a new jockey because his prior one had drowned.

3.  Seattle Slew (1977).  The first of two horses to win the Triple Crown undefeated, he really only ran one bad race in his life: losing the Swaps Stakes after winning the Triple Crown.  His loss to Exceller in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 1978 - where he defeated another horse on this list - remains the "best loss" in American racing history.

4.  Count Fleet (1943).  Most people know that Secretariat has the largest margin of victory in the Belmont, winning by 31 lengths, but few know that this guy is second, winning the Belmont by 25 lengths in what turned out to be his final start.  To illustrate one of the many ways racing has changed over the decades, he had a whopping 2 opponents in the Belmont.

5.  War Admiral (1937).  At this point he's most famous for losing his match race to Seabiscuit, but that shouldn't overshadow just how good this horse was, who only once finished out of the money.  He became one of the most important broodmare sires in racing history, siring Hall of Famer Busher, and dams that created lines that produced Seattle Slew, Swaps, Dr. Fager, Cigar, and horse #7 on this list.

6.  Whirlaway (1941).  The lone horse to win the Triple Crown and the Travers, he holds the record for largest margin of victory in the Kentucky Derby (8 lengths).  He ran a whopping 60 times and won 32 times, only finishing out of the money 4 times.

7.  Affirmed (1978).  An excellent horse whose reputation is enhanced because of his historic rivalry with Alydar.  For our money, his biggest accomplishment was handing Spectacular Bid his only post-Belmont defeat.

8.  American Pharoah (2015).  Other than his maiden race, the worst race of Pharoah's career was his win in the Kentucky Derby (yes, we think he ran better losing the Travers).  The sheer ease by which he won the last two legs of the Triple Crown remains a sight to behold.

9.  Gallant Fox (1930).  The second Triple Crown winner had a surprisingly brief career for a horse in the 1930s - only 17 races, which Citation outdid in his 3 year old season .  As another illustration of how things change, in his day, they actually ran the Preakness before the Derby.  He's probably most memorable for losing the Travers to 100-1 shot Jim Dandy.

10.  Justify (2018).  We'll never know how high the ceiling was, will we?  But man, what a fun ride.

11.  Assault (1946).  The first horse on this list who had more losses than wins, his career was up and down because of physical ailments and illnesses.  When healthy, he was Hall of Fame good.  When he wasn't, he was atrocious: he's the only horse on this list with a last place finish.

12.  Sir Barton (1919).  When he won the Triple Crown, they didn't even call it the Triple Crown yet, it was just 3 races for three year olds.  Although he lost 18 of his 31 starts, in capturing the Triple Crown, he won 4 races (including the Withers Stakes) in 32 days, which is pretty neat.

13.  Omaha (1935).  Well someone had to be last.  He was the son of Gallant Fox and won only 9 times in 22 starts.  But 3 of them were the Derby, Preakness and Belmont, which was enough for immortality.


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