Yep, it's November, which means it's time for our annual rite of hubris and embarrassment: our Breeders Cup preview!
Last year we took a pathetic goose egg on all 13 races, thanks to Ami's Mesa being nosed out at the odds of 18-1. Grrr. Still, there were ways to get to good results from our picks: we had the trifecta for the Juvenile (albeit in the wrong order), and four horses we picked to run second won (Roy H, Gun Runner, Forever Unbridled, Good Magic). The key as always is to be flexible and use our analysis as a jumping off point.
Let's get to Friday's card. Ten years ago, we noted that having the Distaff on Friday was stupid and should be abandoned. In 2011, we suggested they try an all Juvenile Friday. Finally, they listened to us, and we have a Friday card laden with races for two year olds. Given the paucity of races these steeds have run, it's going to make things a little tricky to handicap, but that's not going to stop us. As usual, we'll break down what the race is about, the favorite, a price horse we like, how we think you should approach the race, and our picks. We're assuming a fast track but a soft turf as Kentucky received a ton of rain this week.
Juvenile Turf Sprint
Synopsis: 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf for 2 year olds. This is the newest Breeders Cup race, brought after the experiments of the Marathon and the Juvenile Sprint failed. They drew a full field for this race, which I suppose is good?
Favorite: We think there will be a lot of horses clustered around the 4-1 range, but we'd guess Aiden O'Brien's Sergei Prokofiev will get favoritism status, based on his win at 5 furlongs last out. Plus he cost $1.1 million. The fact he's running in an ungraded stakes race makes us believe the connections aren't thrilled with his development so far, but whatever.
Interesting Longshot: Wesley Ward, who's great with turf sprinters and not much else, has 4 (!) of the 12 horses in this race. We actually have a little interest in what's likely to be the longest price of all his horses, Stillwater Cove, who ran in a Grade 1 at Woodbine last out and was in front after 6 furlongs, only to fade. Lucky for her, that's as far as she needs to run in this race.
Betting Approach: Spread. You're talking about a race that will take 58 seconds over the turf and involves maturing juveniles and has never been run before. If you have great conviction in your selections, we'd like some of whatever you're drinking.
Picks: The turf races recently have been dominated by O'Brien, Chad Brown, and Michael Stoute. The last two don't have anyone running here, so let's go with O'Brien's horses and see what happens.
1. So Perfect
2. Sergei Prokofiev
3. Stillwater Cove
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Synopsis: 1 mile on the turf for 2 year old fillies. Americans have done very well in this race, winning 8 of 10 editions, including the last 5. Chad Brown in particular has become the dominating force, winning 4 of those heats, including 3 of the last 4. Speaking of which...
Favorite: The nicely-bred Newspaperofrecord has run twice, won twice, and done it by a combined 12 1/2 lengths. Also, both starts were over soft turf and that's what she'll get on Friday. She figures to be one of the biggest favorites all weekend.
Interesting Longshot: East has a terrible post (14) and hasn't been keeping good company, but is out of superhorse Frankel and a well-bred (if unaccomplished) dam. She'll probably be completely forgotten in the betting, but maybe she can close late for a piece.
Betting Approach: Single. We're not getting too cute here.
Picks: We'll stick with the favorite on top but try to inject some value underneath. Varenka is still a maiden but has run 3 really good races for Graham Motion (who we always like on the turf) and may get a nice trip on the soft going. We're also curious about the terribly named The Mackem Bullet, who has two nice starts in a row against lesser in Europe. But we think Newspaperofrecord may be something special; we're looking forward to seeing her run.
1. Newspaperofrecord
2. Varenka
3. East
Juvenile Fillies
Synopsis: 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2 year old fillies. This used to be the chalkiest race year after year, but we've had 4 bombs in the last 5 years (with Songbird in the middle). Watch it now return to a favorite parade.
Favorite: Bellafina comes in with three straight wins by open lengths in California. She looks good but we're a little skeptical - she drifted around in the stretch her last two starts. That could mean she was running out of gas and/or is immature, which we don't love, especially since she's starting from the 10 post on a short run to the first turn. Of course, it could be a lot simpler and just mean she was bored.
Interesting Longshot: Meh. Nobody's really jumping out at us, as we think the horses that will be under 10-1 are the cream of the crop. Maybe Reflect likes the jockey change to Irad Ortiz and moves forward?
Betting Strategy: Narrow. As noted, we don't think you need to go too deep here to find the winner.
Picks: Sticking with the shorter priced horses, plenty will back Serengeti Express because she's won her last two starts by a combined 33 lengths. That's impressive, but we can't get past the fact that she was absolutely terrible at Saratoga earlier this year, and wonder if those wins were just over bad horses. Jaywalk really intrigues us in part because we love his sire on the come (Cross Traffic) but think she's a smidge behind the favorite and Restless Rider, who we know loves the track as she has two wins over it. We'll go with her over the shipper.
1. Restless Rider
2. Bellafina
3. Jaywalk
Juvenile Turf
Synopsis: 1 mile on the turf for 2 year old boys. Remember how we were saying Americans do well in the filly version of this? The opposite is true here. Oscar Performance and Pluck were the only two domestics to win, and most years, it hasn't been particularly close.
Favorite: He has a brutally bad post, but Anthony Van Dyck has the precise profile of prior JT winners: competitive at Grade 1s in Europe (a 2nd and 3rd in his last two), well-bred, and now taking on more suspect competition. That's pretty much exactly what Mendelssohn, Wrote, Outstrip and George Vancouver did before winning this race.
Interesting Longshot: Beaten favorites are always horses we like to examine, and Opry fits that to a tee. He went off at 8-5 in the Pilgrim and never really made up ground in the stretch in a somewhat paceless race. If they run a little quicker here early on (likely), he may have something to close into.
Betting Strategy: Narrow. Again, use an American on top at your own peril.
Picks: Had he drawn better, we would simply single Anthony Van Dyck and move on to more pressing issues. But that 14 post scares us. We'll use him, but prefer the well-bred Line of Duty, who's oddly cutting back in distance for this race, and is here with the same connections as last year's F&M Turf winner Wuheida. We like him to pull off a minor upset (we don't think you're getting anywhere near his 10-1 morning line, sorry).
1. Line of Duty
2. Opry
3. Anthony Van Dyck
Juvenile
Synopsis: 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for 2 year old colts. This race is really competitive and interesting; possibly the most compelling race the entire weekend. Let's get to it.
Favorite: It wouldn't be a proper Juvenile without Bob Baffert training an imposing creature, and this year, we give you Game Winner. He's nicely-bred, 3-for-3 with wins at 6, 7 and 8 1/2 furlongs, and a win around two turns. So far, we haven't seen a single flaw in this horse.
Second Choice: Complexity won the Champagne in wire-to-wire fashion for Chad Brown, who won this race last year with Good Magic. He's dominated two races on the front end, and while he's put up big numbers, he's never really been challenged either. We're a little skeptical while admitting this was precisely the reason we were skeptical of Justify all spring, and that worked out great.
Our Boy!: Hall of Famer and personal favorite trainer Shug McGaughey hasn't had a starter in this race in 17 years (when he ran the execrable Saarland). But he's back with Code of Honor! This colt ran well in his first start, wiring the field at Saratoga for a solid win. When a Shug horse shows early speed and wins at a sprint distance, you should pay complete attention, because that's generally the antithesis of his style. Shug ambitiously placed him in the Champagne, where he broke terribly, was left at the back of the field, only to gather himself and close to a good second to Complexity. Our bias acknowledged, we think he's the horse out of the Champagne to watch.
Interesting Longshot: He's going to be completely lost in the shuffle, but don't lose sight of Chad Brown's "other" horse, Standard Deviation. He was the second choice in the Breeders Futurity when he broke so-so from the outside, was 7 wide on both turns, and tried to close at Keeneland, which is usually the kiss of death. He finished third but was running hard throughout. We think he's sitting on a big race at a bigger price, and love that he adds blinkers.
Betting Strategy: Narrow. No, we're not buying Knicks Go, who won his prep race at a mere 71-1. Nor are we interested in Well Defined, who dominated two state-bred races. Those horses rarely compete in this race. Gunmetal Gray isn't impossible but from the 12 post, we think he'll either have to run to the lead (which isn't his game) or will be stuck wide and in trouble.
Picks: Man, this one's tough, as we think all four of the horses we've cited above can win it. Gun to our head, we'll stick with Game Winner, who's shown no flaws so far and is in good hands. We'll slightly downgrade Complexity simply because we think he's going to get pressured on the front end, and because his stablemate will be 8 times the price with not much worse a chance. Just enjoy this race, it's a great finale to the day.
1. Game Winner
2. Code of Honor
3. Standard Deviation
Coming up later: Saturday's Picks.
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