Season Preview: Jeters Never Prosper

We here at the GRBG are close--so very, very close--to having Derek Pamela Jeter out of our lives forever. Jeter of course broke his ankle last October, during this freak incident:

The freak incident was that he sucessfully made a play to his left.

Jeter's still not all the way back yet, as he'll start the season on the DL. Thus, we thought that we had finally arrived at the magical moment in history when the Jeters Never Prosper team name would finally be accurate.

Then of course, came word that Jeter has replaced Minka Kelly with the Direct TV Genie Girl, who is 22 and looks like this:



That green bar is . . . suggestive.


So maybe the time of Jeter has not yet ended.

Jeter's unlikely personal revival is mirrored in the fortunes of the JNP team, who look to be in prime position to rebound from a rare second-division finish and make another run at the board.

Infield

This unit is sort of a microcosm of the team as a whole, in that while there isn't a huge amount of surface appeal, there also aren't really any holes to speak of. Prince Fielder is the cornerstone of the group at 1B. Mike Napoli and Aramis Ramirez provide proven production (especially in OBP) at C and 3B, even if neither has much upside left at this point in their careers. And Jason Kipnis and Ian Desmond provide power, speed, and youth. Official non-sleeper sleeper of the year Anthony Rizzo is also on hand as the UTIL right now, although there are yet more boring, stable vets around to step in if Rizzo fails to meet the hype.

With the exception of Fielder, it's unlikely that any of these IF gusy will be amoong the top 3 at their positions this year. But there also aren't any guys who are objectively likely to be much below fantasy average (although I harbor a subjective feeling that Ramirez is in for an injury-plagued year--he usually has one every 3-4 years or so). The players also have complementary strengths, with dead slow but above-average OBP guys at C and 3B balanced out by hacktastic but above-average HR/SB threats in the middle infield. This is a well-contructed group.

Outfield

Populated with a mix of guys we think are way overrated and guys we think are underrated, meaning that like the IF, things average out about right. We have grave concerns about Adrian Gonzalez, whose power stroke never came back after a shoulder injury a few years ago. Even his high OBPs in San Diego look suspect in hindsight, because they were padded out with a ton of intentional walks that Gonzo hasn't gotten once surrounded by better hitters. We also think the Andre Ethier benefitted from 10 unsustainably good weeks last year.

However, Alejandro de Aza was a fantastic value pick late in the draft. And while Jayson Werth is no longer a fantasy keystone (and spells both of his own names wrong), he's a nice security blanket as a bench OF. As with the IF, the end result is a solid squad.

Starting Pitching

Yep, same deal. Yu "Whirling" Darivsh had some BB-related bumps last year, but the computer projection systems I've seen love him for this year. The saber guys are also reconsidering Jered Weaver on the theory that he might be one of the rare SPs capable of suppressing batting average on balls in play. I think lots of us like Brett Anderson as a counce-back guy this year, and he's here too, along with fellow lefty fireballer Chris Sale.  That's not to say that it's all good news--there are a few iffy guys as well. Josh Johnson has been going in the wrong direction for a bit, and is moving to a harder park in the harder league, and Ryan Vogelsong has been dancing between the raindrops for a few years now. But regardless, there's more than enough talent on hand to form an effective rotation.

Bullpen

There are four current closers on hand, which is more than we've seen for any other team to this point. Jon Papelbon and JJ Putz are about as reliable as it gets in the closer category (although given the churn in closers in recent years, that's not saying much). However, Ernesto Frieri and Chris Perez are decent bets to lose their gigs before the All-Star break, in Frieri's case because Ryan Madson will return, and in Perez's case because he isn't all that good at baseball. So there will be more to do here as the season progresses.

Outlook

I would wager that the word "sucks" appears in about 83% of the season previews we've written over the past seven years. And that's not (entirely) because of undue negativity on our part--it's really hard to assemble an Opening Day roster without an obvious hole or too. But nothing here sucks. We can offer no higher compliment.

Season Preview: Jeters Never Prosper

We'll dispense with most of our usual faffing about in this preview, because this is a damn good team. However, we did want to briefly note the ethical conundrum that this team may soon face: if you name your fantasy team after a player, are you obligated to play him? Because this team really only has one obvious hole, and its name is Derek Evelyn Jeter. 

The face made by Jeter in response to the GRBG's request for comment.

Infield

Features Mike Napoli and Prince Fielder, yet is possibly the weakest unit on the team. (That's a scary thought.) But once you get past those two guys, there are some question marks. Aramis Ramirez is a trick-or-treat player at 3B, and generally has been a guy you want the year before he signs a big FA deal, not the year after. Jason Kipnis is an interesting prospect at 2B, but doesn't have much of a track record. Of course, the owner seems to realize this and has brought in cover in the forms of Neil Walker and ...

Wait.

Really?

...

Brian Roberts! Because why not bring in a 35 year old MI with multiple concussions and one remaining viable cervical disc? 

But while we gently mock, it is likely that at least one of those three guys holds down the keystone well enough. That just leaves Jeter, who missed a number of games last year and has no backup on the roster. We think that the two big boppers will provide adequate cover, but this is the spot where things could get ugly.

Outfield

Solid. While there's no real elite guy, there are three solid above-average choices. Given the sneaky lack of depth in the OF, that's a nice setup. We like Shin-Soo Choo to bounce back this year now that he's done stress-drinking in reaction to the possibility of getting drafted into the Korean army. Andre Ethier took a step forward last year, although he's still under the radar because he plays next to Matt Kemp. And Nick Swisher is a happy marriage of player skills, ballpark, and team, as his walk-and-hack routine fits perfectly in the New Yankee Launching Pad and with a deep, productive lineup. Not sure what Ichiro has left in the tank, but he's starting the year on the bench and should be adequate as a speed sub and injury cover.

Starting Pitching

The rotation has a chance to be absolutely monstrous. Dan Haren and Jared Weaver will probably take a little step back from their crazy 2011, but they're still almost certain to perform well. Behind them is injury retread Josh Johnson, and dual rookie sensations Yu Darvish and Matt Moore. While we are usually leery of both injured arms and youth on the hill, these are about the best bets you could make in those categories. We don't love Jeremy Hellickson as much, but life's not bad if he's your sixth starter.

Bullpen

Currently a bit shallow, with only a post-injury Brian Wilson and job-threatened Matt Thornton holding down closer roles. That said, Jon Broxton or Brian Fuentes could end up with a closer role sometime this year, so they will be fine if everything breaks right. Even if it doesn't, they still have enough here to push towards the top of the non-megapen teams, which should be enough to stay respectable in SV. 

Also, Jonny Venters is fun as hell, which counts for something.

Outlook

Yes, the middle infield situation is problematic, and yes, the pen is not going to be elite. But in a year with no real monster Opening Day squads, this team looks like its in the best shape heading into the season.

 

Season Preview: Jeters Never Prosper

Up next on the preview conveyor belt is one of four teams using the same name as last year. Given none of this group finished higher than fifth place, you'd think someone would have rethought this strategy. Alas. Anyway, time for a look at Jeters Never Prosper.

Since winning the inaugural season and coming in second the following season, it's been something of a binary result for the Calcified Minkas. In the next seven seasons, they have a pair of 3rd place finishes, four finishes in either 6th or 7th, and one seemingly aberrant 9th place finish. You know what you're going to get with Jake's teams--a lot of veterans, some questionable starting pitchers, a few injury reclamation projects, and an odd infatuation with Derek Jeter for someone that's not a Yankee fan.

So what does 2011 have in store for the original champs? Let's have a look-see.

Infield

On their face the names look quite impressive: Prince Fielder, Joe Mauer, Derek Jeter, Aramis Ramirez and Ian Kinsler, with Justin Morneau in the DH slot for now. That group has won 2 MVPs, has made a combined 25 All Star teams, and this year will gross $88.1 million in salary. So why am I underwhelmed?

Let's start with injury concerns. In his 5 seasons, Kinsler has topped more than 130 games played once, and at that, only hit 144. If he's not healthy, he can't contribute. Morneau appears to have the same neurologist as Wayne Chrebet as it's still unclear when he'll be cleared to play from last July's concussion. While Mauer is great, as a catcher, he'll never play more than 140 games. And A-Ram, quietly, has missed 120 games over the last two years. The most reliable players for PAs are the team's best (Fielder) and worst (Jeter).

I would say let's look to their backups, except the only backup infielder is Scott Rolen, who has never been a paradigm of health and is 36 years old. (There's also Aubrey Huff's first base eligibility, but given that they have Fielder and Morneau, so what?) So while there's some nice potential for production here and no real sinkholes beyond Mr. November, you have to expect that they're going to need about 500-750 PA's from players currently not on their roster.

Outfield

Zero stars and zero scrubs. Angel Pagan had a nice year as the Mets' best outfielder last year, which is damnation by faint praise. Huff seemed to have found the fountain of youth last year, and should put up solid stats, and the same is true for Nick Markakis. And Jason Kubel is fine as your 4th outfielder. But the upside here appears to be league-average hitting. Unless Markakis finally explodes or Pagan takes an unexpected leap forward, we're not seeing big production from this crew.

Starters

In years past we've killed Jake for being cavalier with the risks he takes in the starting rotation. Last year I called it the "Aces and Flyers" method; in 2009, Teddy called it "Brandon Webb and a whole bunch of kids"; in 2008, Teddy dubbed it a staff "assembled by Bear Stearns" and "bordering on ridiculous."

But I'm hear to praise Jake, not to bury him. This year's staff is one of his best and has the potential to be one of the league's best. Jered Weaver remains an underappreciated ace and is a nice anchor. While I'm not as high on Dan Haren as my colleague, he's unquestionably a fine #2. John Danks, the Cum Dempster and Jair Jurrjens are all solid citizens. Brian Matusz and Jeremy Hellickson are potential aces in the making. Hell, even the flyers are defensible--if his arm stays attached, Anibal Sanchez is good, and what's wrong with playing the DL-stash game with Johan St. Johan?

Bullpen

This looked like an okay pen until Brian Wilson went down, but reports are that he should be fine in a week or two. If he is, then the 1-2 punch of him and K-Rod is perfectly fine. Jonny Venters and Evan Meek are interesting plays--they both are nice pitchers that need the closers in front of them to falter, and both Craig Kimbrel and Joel Pederast just might do that. Fun gambles.

Outlook

It's the pitching that leads me to think that this squad will be mildly frisky this year, as good starters plus decent contributions from the infield should lead the team being in contention. But the outfield needs to be upgraded substantially if they're going to compete--it's tough to see an Aubrey Huff-lead squad of outfielders contending for the title. What does give these guys some hope is the fact there's a lot of tradeable assets for a team building for 2012: Hellickson, Matusz, Santana and Jesus Montero are all guys that would fetch a bounty on the open market. So I forecast another middle of the pack finish unless a big move is made come June. That's up to the owner.

Season Preview: Jeters Never Prosper

We opine a lot on names here, be it cursing out teams like M*ke, lauding governor lowercase for his general audacity, or shrugging our shoulders at The Spam Avengers. Jake has upped the ante a bit this year by naming his squad after its starting shortstop Derek Jeter. That's all fine and good...but he named his team Jeters Never Prosper. While this may be an anti-Yankee rant, which we're fine with, it also may be an Anti-Jake rant, which is somewhat nonsensical. After all, this team rode a superb 2009 draft to a 3rd place finish and had a nice keeper list. Is there reason to think that they won't be back in the money this year?

Infield

When Captain Jeter is your fourth or fifth best infielder, you've got a helluva squad. Beyond the team's namesake, this unit includes AL MVP Joe Mauer, NL slugger Prince Fielder, former MVP Justin Morneau, and solid citizen 2B Ian Kinsler. Even the backups are interesting: Billy Butler has no place to play in this lineup but is a fun sleeper for this year and Miguel Tejada is an underrated fantasy performer despite being 40 years old. Kinsler's hurt right now, but assuming he comes back in one piece, this is probably the best infield in the league.

Outfield

As great as the infield is, the outfield leaves a lot to be desired. Jason Kubel was a personal favorite of mine last year and is a pretty solid performer on a good team, but if he's your best outfielder, you need better outfielders. Juvenile Delinquent Drew and Nate McLouth both have tempting rate stats but are never healthy enough to play consistently and lack "big bopper" potential. And while Nyjer Morgan will steal a bunch of bases, he's unlikely to contribute much in the way of runs, doesn't walk, and in 206 games, has knocked in a whopping 53 runs. Generally it's fine to carry a Steals Guy, but when your other two outfielders contribute fewer than 50 home runs, it's a tough to punt 3-4 categories in an outfield slot.

Starting Pitching

This franchise has a lot of history of playing the Ace & Flyers formula, and this year is no exception. Yovanni Gallardo is a bonafide ace and Kevin Slowey is a good bounceback candidate. After that, we get the typical Jake Risk Pool. John Danks had a decent 2009 on the surface, but his HRs and walks went up appreciably and to me looks like a decline candidate. Justin Duchsherer and Edinson Volquez combined for 49 innings last year and cannot be considered reliable. Kevin Correia is just A Guy. And then we have the Cum Dempster, about whom we've written more than enough.

Relief Pitching

In most areas of fantasy (and real) baseball you'd prefer quality over quantity, but relief pitching may be the exception. In any event, it's certainly the modus operandi for the Captains, who have multiple closers that are squarely in the "meh" category. Brian Wilson inspires fear and awe in zero people, but has a firm hold on the Giants job. K-Rod is about a year from falling off a cliff, but should get 30 saves for my putrid Mets. And while none of the quartet of the firm Adams Morales Ziegler & Dotel, PLLC, looks to be a star, they should combine for another 30-50 saves. Combined, this looks like 90-100 saves, which would be good enough for 5th place in the league last year. Can't complain too much.

Outlook

As strong as the Mauer-Morneau-Fielder-Kinsler quartet is, the outfield and starting pitching are shaky enough to put this team tier behind the league's best. That said, those are the two positions where every year we see surprises emerge and plenty of talent available for trade. If this team can snag another bat in the outfield and another good starter sometime before the All-Star Break and avoid the injury bug, they'll compete for a spot in the money.